Exploring relationships between HIV programme outcomes and the societal enabling environment: A structural equation modeling statistical analysis in 138 low- and middle-income countries

Countries worldwide have attempted to reduce the incidence of HIV and AIDS associated deaths with varying success, despite significant progress in antiretroviral treatment (ART) and condom use. A chief obstacles is that key populations affected face high levels of stigma, discrimination and exclusion, limiting the successful response to HIV. However, a gap exists in studies demonstrating the moderation effects of societal enablers on overall programme effectiveness and HIV outcomes using quantitative methods.Structural Equation Modeling was used for 138 countries covering a 12-year period to examine how the unfavorable societal enabling environment, including stigma and discrimination, unfavorable legal environment and lack of access to societal justice, gender inequality and other unfavorable development situations affect the effectiveness of HIV programmes and HIV outcomes, while controlling for potentially confounding variables. The results only showed statistical significance when all four societal enablers were modeled as a composite. The findings show the direct and indirect standardized effects of unfavorable societal enabling environments to AIDS-related mortality among PLHIV are statistically significant and positive (0.26 and 0.08, respectively). We hypothesize that this may be because an unfavorable societal enabling environment can negatively affect adherence to ART, quality of healthcare and health seeking behavior. Higher ranked societal environments increase the effect of ART coverage on AIDS related mortality by about 50% in absolute value, that is -0.61 as against -0.39 for lower ranked societal environments. However, mixed results were obtained on the impact of societal enablers on changes in HIV incidence through condom use. Results indicate that countries with better societal enabling environments had fewer estimated new HIV infections and fewer AIDS-related deaths. The failure to include societal enabling environments in HIV response undermines efforts to achieve the 2025 HIV targets, and the related 2030 Sustainable Development indicator to end AIDS, even if sufficient resources are mobilized.

Removing the societal and legal impediments to the HIV response: An evidence-based framework for 2025 and beyond

Societal and legal impediments inhibit quality HIV prevention, care, treatment and support services and need to be removed. The political declaration adopted by UN member countries at the high-level meeting on HIV and AIDS in June 2021, included new societal enabler global targets for achievement by 2025 that will address this gap. Our paper describes how and why UNAIDS arrived at the societal enabler targets adopted. We conducted a scoping review and led a participatory process between January 2019 and June 2020 to develop an evidence-based framework for action, propose global societal enabler targets, and identify indicators for monitoring progress. A re-envisioned framework called the '3 S's of the HIV response: Society, Systems and Services' was defined. In the framework, societal enablers enhance the effectiveness of HIV programmes by removing impediments to service availability, access and uptake at the societal level, while service and system enablers improve efficiencies in and expand the reach of HIV services and systems. Investments in societal enabling approaches that remove legal barriers, shift harmful social and gender norms, reduce inequalities and improve institutional and community structures are needed to progressively realize four overarching societal enablers, the first three of which fall within the purview of the HIV sector: (i) societies with supportive legal environments and access to justice, (ii) gender equal societies, (iii) societies free from stigma and discrimination, and (iv) co-action across development sectors to reduce exclusion and poverty. Three top-line and 15 detailed targets were recommended for monitoring progress towards their achievement. The clear articulation of societal enablers in the re-envisioned framework should have a substantial impact on improving the effectiveness of core HIV programmes if implemented. Together with the new global targets, the framework will also galvanize advocacy to scale up societal enabling approaches with proven impact on HIV outcomes.

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Sex between men in the context of HIV: The AIDS 2008 Jonathan Mann Memorial Lecture in health and human rights

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) have been among the most affected populations by HIV since the AIDS pandemic was first identified in the 1980s. Evidence from a wide range of studies show that these men remain at the highest risk for HIV acquisition in both developed and developing countries, and that despite three decades of evidence of their vulnerability to HIV, they remain under-served and under-studied. Prevention strategies targeted to MSM are markedly under-funded in most countries, leading to limited access to health services including prevention, treatment, and care. We explore the global epidemic among MSM in 2008, the limited funding available globally to respond to these epidemics, and the human rights contexts and factors which drive HIV spread and limit HIV responses for these men.

What do we mean by the term MSM? MSM is a construct from the 1990s that tries to capture behavior and not identity. It was crafted to avoid stigmatizing and culturally laden terms such as gay or bisexual, which do not capture the wide diversity of orientations, sexual practices, cultures, and contextual settings in which male same-sex behaviors occur, and where HIV transmission and acquisition risks are centered. MSM includes both gay and non-gay identified men, bisexual men, and MSM who identify themselves as heterosexuals. It also includes men engaging in "situational" sex between men, such as can occur in prisons, schools, militaries or other environments; and it includes male sex workers who may be of any orientation but are often at very high risk for HIV. MSM may include some biologically male transgender persons, though some do not identify as male. And MSM includes a wide array of traditional and local terms worldwide–with enormous cultural diversity in Asia, Africa, Latin America and elsewhere. We use the term MSM here at its most inclusive.

Extrarelational sex among Mexican men and their partners' risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases

OBJECTIVES

This study explored the risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among married and cohabiting women in Mexico City, Mexico, derived from their partners' sexual behaviors.

METHODS

Results were derived from the first population-based household survey in Mexico that investigated male sexual behavior. Analyses were restricted to sexually active married or cohabiting men (n = 3990).

RESULTS

Fifteen percent of the men reported extrarelational sex during the past year, 9% reported condom use during last intercourse, and 80% perceived no HIV risk. Most secondary partners were coworkers, mistresses, or friends.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted HIV and STD prevention efforts appear necessary because a substantial number of women may be at risk.

Assessment of non-response bias in a probability household survey of male same-gender sexual behavior

OBJECTIVE

To assess non-participation bias in a survey of male sexual behavior.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A household survey was carried out in 1992-1993 using a probability sampling frame in Mexico City. Demographic variables were available for all eligible men. The extent of non-participation bias was estimated using a version of the Heckman method, which utilizes two equations, one to predict participation and the other to predict reports of same-gender sexual behavior.

RESULTS

A total of 8,068 of the 13,713 eligible men completed a face-to-face questionnaire (response rate 59%); 173 men (2.1%) reported bisexual behavior in their lifetime, and 37 (0.4%) reported only male partners. Survey participation was predicted using demographic variables: 67% of the observations were correctly predicted by a probit regression model: 82% of participants and 53% of non-participants (pseudo-r2 = 0.13). Same-gender sexual behavior was predicted by variables indicating attachment to gay/bisexual social networks, history of sexually transmitted diseases, positive attitudes towards gay and bisexual males, and lack of support from male relatives. Ninety-seven per cent of the cases was correctly predicted by the probit model (pseudo-r2 = 0.14). The correlation between these two equations was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that prevalence estimates of same-gender sexual behavior among Mexico City men were not biased by selective survey participation. Careful selection and training of household interviewers may have assisted in minimizing potential bias.

[Condom use by men with non-stable partners in Mexico City]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between sociodemographic variables and condom use during vaginal sexual relationships with non-stable partners.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data were taken from a household probability survey on sexual behavior in 1992-1993 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Of the completed survey were obtained 8,068 men of 15 to 60 years of age. 1,535 were selected because they reported that their last sexual relationship with vaginal intercourse had been with a non-stable partner. Principal component analyses were conducted to groups of variables with common underlying structures, these components and other variables were included in a logistic regressions. Condom use during last intercourse was the dependent variable.

RESULTS

Feeling that sex with condoms or sex without penetration could be pleasurable, a high ranking in a scale on self-efficacy for condom use, compulsion for using a condom because of being afraid of contracting HIV/AIDS were positively associated with using a condom in the last sexual intercourse. Marital status, schooling, and the number of episodes of sexually transmitted diseases were significantly associated with condom use. Perception of inevitability of becoming infected due to lack of trust in condoms was negatively associated with its use. None of the variables regarding knowledge on HIV/AIDS, including means of transmission and ways to prevent its infection, showed any significant association with condom use.

CONCLUSIONS

Even when information is considered important in educational strategies, it might be more important to promote a positive perception on condoms and safe sex as pleasurable (at the individual and social level), as well as the promotion of self-efficacy on being able to use a condom or enforce preventive behaviors against HIV infection.

[The homosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in Mexico]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze HIV homosexual transmission in Mexico, epidemic trends and biological and social risk factors.

METHODS

This analysis is based on 19,090 notifications of AIDS cases and on a review of two previous studies that include 3,029 behavioral interviews (together with HIV serological screening tests) carried out at the Information Center of the Mexican Council for Control and Prevention of AIDS (CONASIDA) (1988-89) and during a 1988 study in six Mexican cities. Cities were included because they were the larger in the country and/or because they were the larger in the country and/or because they were touristic places (Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Acapulco, Tijuana and Merida). Logistic regressions were used to estimate the odds ratios for HIV seropositivity and for condom use.

RESULTS

Seventy-two percent of the total reported AIDS cases (19,090) up to June 30, 1994, were associated with male homosexual behaviors. In absolute numbers, cases under this category exhibited a rising trend until the end of 1993. HIV seroprevalence was 31% in 2,314 men with homosexual practices who attended "FLORA", the AIDS Information Center in Mexico, from January 1988 to June 30, 1989. The main predictive variables for seropositivity were exclusive homosexual behavior, more than 40 lifetime sexual partners, mixed sexual behavior (both insertive and receptive and intercourse), sex with a person with AIDS, history of syphilis, and anal or genital warts. In general, these risk factors (data from the Information Center) are similar to those found in the six Mexican cities study. There were significant differences in HIV prevalence among the high-risk city samples (the highest in Mexico City with 25% and the lowest in Monterrey with 2.4%). Reported condom use was very low in both studies: only 5% used a condom in all of their sexual relationships. A statistically significant protective effect for HIV infection was found only for those who reported using a condom in all sexual encounters. In the six cities study, city of residence was a strong predictor of condom use.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV homosexual transmission is steadily increasing; the recent decline in the percentage of homosexual cases is artificial because of the increment of cases under other categories. Men who report exclusive homosexual behavior have higher prevalence rates of infection than bisexual men. Individuals with insertive/receptive behavior (mixed) have the highest risk for HIV seropositivity, mainly because of sociological, rather than biological reasons. This difference in risks for HIV and condom use may be related to the selection of sexual partners from specific social networks. Condom use was demonstrated to be an effective method for preventing HIV seropositivity among those who always use condoms. However, it is alarming that only 5% of respondents reported condom use in all sexual encounters. Social and geographic differences in the cumulative numbers of cases, HIV prevalence, sexual practices and condom use must be taken into account in the planning of preventive programs.

[AIDS mortality in Mexico from 1983 to 1992. The trends and years of potential life lost]

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends in AIDS mortality in Mexico from 1983 to 1992, as well as years of potential life lost (YPLL) and years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) due to AIDS.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective review of databases available in Mexico that code mortality from AIDS was performed. Since AIDS was not coded specifically as a cause of death until 1988, for the period 1983-1987 the database of AIDS cases from the national AIDS registry provided by the Instituto Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos of the Ministry of Health was used. For the 1988-1992 period, a review of the mortality registry was provided by the Dirección General de Estadística, Informática y Evaluación of the Ministry of Health. To calculate YPLL and YPPLL we used the upper limit of expected life in Mexico for 1990 (70.79 years for men and 75.71 for women).

RESULTS

Through 1992, there have been 8,204 deaths attributable to AIDS in Mexico (86% were men) with a rate of 2.9 deaths/100,000. In 1992 AIDS was the 19th leading cause of death in the country. The most affected age groups are the 25-34 and 35-44 years-old (especially amongst men) in which AIDS has now displaced pulmonary tuberculosis, suicide and self-inflicted injuries, diabetes mellitus, cerebro-vascular disease and alcohol dependency syndrome as leading causes of death in men. Our data suggests that AIDS has caused, from 1983 through 1992, 247,045 YPLL in men and 48,703 in women as well as 206,211 YPPLL in men and 29,793 in women.

CONCLUSIONS

AIDS is at present one of the leading causes of death in Mexico. However, due to under-reporting, these estimates should be considered conservative and as lower-bound estimates. This data suggests that professionals are over-represented among AIDS cases, in comparison with the 1990 Population Census. This does not happen to be the case among women who are housewives.

[Years of potential life lost: their usefulness in the analysis of mortality in Mexico]

The evolution of the epidemiology of mortality in developing countries requires the use of indicators additional to cause specific mortality rates. This paper presents the leading causes of potential years of life lost in Mexico in 1983, by sex. Methodologic discussion focused on age limits and relative numbers. The indicator proved useful to assess the impact of infectious diseases, accidents and homicides as causes of premature death. It was also useful to identify years of potential life lost attributable to specific age and sex groups. The use of years of potential life lost provides valuable information to epidemiologic mortality analysis.