Driving delivery and uptake of catch-up vaccination among adolescent and adult migrants in UK general practice: a mixed methods pilot study

BACKGROUND

Migrants in the UK and Europe face vulnerability to vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) due to missed childhood vaccines and doses and marginalisation from health systems. Ensuring migrants receive catch-up vaccinations, including MMR, Td/IPV, MenACWY, and HPV, is essential to align them with UK and European vaccination schedules and ultimately reduce morbidity and mortality. However, recent evidence highlights poor awareness and implementation of catch-up vaccination guidelines by UK primary care staff, requiring novel approaches to strengthen the primary care pathway.

METHODS

The 'Vacc on Track' study (May 2021-September 2022) aimed to measure under-vaccination rates among migrants in UK primary care and establish new referral pathways for catch-up vaccination. Participants included migrants aged 16 or older, born outside of Western Europe, North America, Australia, or New Zealand, in two London boroughs. Quantitative data on vaccination history, referral, uptake, and sociodemographic factors were collected, with practice nurses prompted to deliver catch-up vaccinations following UK guidelines. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with staff and migrants explored views on delivering catch-up vaccination, including barriers, facilitators, and opportunities. Data were analysed using STATA12 and NVivo 12.

RESULTS

Results from 57 migrants presenting to study sites from 18 countries (mean age 41 [SD 7.2] years; 62% female; mean 11.3 [SD 9.1] years in UK) over a minimum of 6 months of follow-up revealed significant catch-up vaccination needs, particularly for MMR (49 [86%] required catch-up vaccination) and Td/IPV (50 [88%]). Fifty-three (93%) participants were referred for any catch-up vaccination, but completion of courses was low (6 [12%] for Td/IPV and 33 [64%] for MMR), suggesting individual and systemic barriers. Qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 39) with adult migrants highlighted the lack of systems currently in place in the UK to offer catch-up vaccination to migrants on arrival and the need for health-care provider skills and knowledge of catch-up vaccination to be improved. Focus group discussions and interviews with practice staff (n = 32) identified limited appointment/follow-up time, staff knowledge gaps, inadequate engagement routes, and low incentivisation as challenges that will need to be addressed. However, they underscored the potential of staff champions, trust-building mechanisms, and community-based approaches to strengthen catch-up vaccination uptake among migrants.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the significant catch-up vaccination needs of migrants in our sample, and the current barriers to driving uptake identified, our findings suggest it will be important to explore this public health issue further, potentially through a larger study or trial. Strengthening existing pathways, staff capacity and knowledge in primary care, alongside implementing new strategies centred on cultural competence and building trust with migrant communities will be important focus areas.

Effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines on maternal and perinatal outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects of COVID-19 vaccines in women before or during pregnancy on SARS-CoV-2 infection-related, pregnancy, offspring and reactogenicity outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Major databases between December 2019 and January 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Nine pairs of reviewers contributed to study selection. We included test-negative designs, comparative cohorts and randomised trials on effects of COVID-19 vaccines on infection-related and pregnancy outcomes. Non-comparative cohort studies reporting reactogenicity outcomes were also included.

QUALITY ASSESSMENT, DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently assessed study quality and extracted data. We undertook random-effects meta-analysis and reported findings as HRs, risk ratios (RRs), ORs or rates with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven studies (1 813 947 women) were included. Overall, in test-negative design studies, pregnant women fully vaccinated with any COVID-19 vaccine had 61% reduced odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.75; 4 studies, 23 927 women; I2=87.2%) and 94% reduced odds of hospital admission (OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.71; 2 studies, 868 women; I2=92%). In adjusted cohort studies, the risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy was reduced by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.92; 2 studies; 115 085 women), while caesarean section was reduced by 9% (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.98; 6 studies; 30 192 women). We observed an 8% reduction in the risk of neonatal intensive care unit admission (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97; 2 studies; 54 569 women) in babies born to vaccinated versus not vaccinated women. In general, vaccination during pregnancy was not associated with increased risk of adverse pregnancy or perinatal outcomes. Pain at the injection site was the most common side effect reported (77%, 95% CI 52% to 94%; 11 studies; 27 195 women).

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection and related complications in pregnant women.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020178076.

The immune status of migrant populations in Europe and implications for vaccine-preventable disease control: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Ensuring vaccination coverage reaches established herd immunity thresholds (HIT) is the cornerstone of any vaccination programme. Diverse migrant populations in European countries have been associated with cases of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD) and outbreaks, yet it is not clear to what extent they are an under-immunised group.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise peer-reviewed published primary research reporting data on the immune status of migrants in EU/EEA countries, the UK and Switzerland, calculating their pooled immunity coverage for measles, mumps, rubella, and diphtheria using random-effects models. We searched on Web of Science, Embase, Global Health and MEDLINE (January 1st 2000 to June 10th 2022), with no language restrictions. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018103666).

FINDINGS

Of 1103 abstracts screened, 62 met eligibility criteria, of which 39 were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis included 75 089 migrants, predominantly from outside Europe. Pooled immunity coverage among migrant populations was well below the recommended HIT for diphtheria (n = 7, 57.4% [95% CI: 43.1-71.7%] I2 = 99% vs HIT 83-86%), measles (n = 21, 83.7% [95% CI: 79.2-88.2] I2 = 99% vs HIT 93-95%), and mumps (n = 8, 67.1% [95% CI: 50.6-83.6] I2 = 99% vs HIT 88-93%), and midway for rubella (n = 29, 85.6% [95% CI: 83.1-88.1%] I2 = 99% vs HIT 83-94%), with high heterogeneity across studies.

INTERPRETATION

Migrants in Europe are an under-immunised group for a range of important VPDs, with this study reinforcing the importance of engaging children, adolescents, and adults in 'catch-up' vaccination initiatives on arrival for vaccines, doses, and boosters they may have missed in their home countries. Co-designing strategies to strengthen catch-up vaccination across the life-course in under-immunised groups is an important next step if we are to meet European and global targets for VPD elimination and control and ensure vaccine equity.

Evolution of the clinical simulation approach to assess digital health technologies

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has catalysed digital transformation in the health space. However, it remains a challenge to generate timely and cost-effective evidence for digital health technologies (DHTs) to ensure their safety and efficacy. Traditional methods, such as randomised controlled trials (RCTs), are ill-suited for assessing DHTs for reasons of speed, agility, cost and context. Clinical simulation using high-fidelity synthetic patient cases is emerging as a promising yet underexplored method to evaluate DHTs. It offers several advantages, including conducting remote multi-site testing at low cost, inclusion of high-risk patient profiles that are usually excluded from RCTs and adaptability to different local clinical settings. This article shares some of the insights from studies using clinical simulation conducted at the Institute of Global Health Innovation (IGHI) at Imperial College London and describes the evolution of this approach as well as future opportunities.

Uncovering and engineering the mechanical properties of the adhesion GPCR ADGRG1 GAIN domain

Key cellular functions depend on the transduction of extracellular mechanical signals by specialized membrane receptors including adhesion G-protein coupled receptors (aGPCRs). While recently solved structures support aGPCR activation through shedding of the extracellular GAIN domain, the molecular mechanisms underpinning receptor mechanosensing remain poorly understood. When probed using single-molecule atomic force spectroscopy and molecular simulations, ADGRG1 GAIN dissociated from its tethered agonist at forces significantly higher than other reported signaling mechanoreceptors. Strong mechanical resistance was achieved through specific structural deformations and force propagation pathways under mechanical load. ADGRG1 GAIN variants computationally designed to lock the alpha and beta subdomains and rewire mechanically-induced structural deformations were found to modulate the GPS-Stachel rupture forces. Our study provides unprecedented insights into the molecular underpinnings of GAIN mechanical stability and paves the way for engineering mechanosensors, better understanding aGPCR function, and informing drug-discovery efforts targeting this important receptor class.

Glycemic index and insulin index after a standard carbohydrate meal consumed with live kombucha: A randomised, placebo-controlled, crossover trial

Introduction

Kombucha is a complex probiotic beverage made from fermented tea, yet despite extensive historical, anecdotal, and in-vivo evidence for its health benefits, no controlled trials have been published on its effect on humans.

Methods

We conducted a randomised placebo-controlled, cross-over study that examined the Glycemic Index (GI) and Insulin Index (II) responses after a standardised high-GI meal consumed with three different test beverages (soda water, diet lemonade soft drink and an unpasteurised kombucha) in 11 healthy adults. The study was prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (anzctr.org.au: 12620000460909). Soda water was used as the control beverage. GI or II values were calculated by expressing the 2-h blood glucose or insulin response as a percentage of the response produced by 50 g of glucose dissolved in water.

Results

There was no statistically significant difference in GI or II between the standard meal consumed with soda water (GI: 86 and II: 85) or diet soft drink (GI: 84 and II: 81, (p = 0.929 for GI and p = 0.374 for II). In contrast, when kombucha was consumed there was a clinically significant reduction in GI and II (GI: 68, p = 0.041 and II: 70, p = 0.041) compared to the meal consumed with soda water.

Discussion

These results suggest live kombucha can produce reductions in acute postprandial hyperglycemia. Further studies examining the mechanisms and potential therapeutic benefits of kombucha are warranted.

Comparison of ophthalmic artery Doppler with PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio at 35-37 weeks' gestation in prediction of imminent pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To compare the predictive performance for delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) at < 3 weeks and at any stage after assessment at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1)/PlGF ratio with that of a competing-risks model utilizing maternal risk factors, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and ophthalmic artery peak systolic velocity (PSV) ratio.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination of fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries and measurement of MAP, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks and at any time after the examination was assessed using areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves and detection rates (DRs), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). McNemar's test was used to compare DRs, at a 10% FPR, between screening by PlGF concentration, the sFlt-1/PlGF concentration ratio and the competing-risks model utilizing maternal risk factors, MAP and ophthalmic artery PSV ratio. Model-based estimates of screening performance for different methods of screening were also produced.

RESULTS

The study population of 2338 pregnancies contained 75 (3.2%) cases that developed PE, including 30 (1.3%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks from assessment, and 2263 cases unaffected by PE. The DR of PE at < 3 weeks from assessment, at a 10% FPR, of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (70.0% (95% CI, 50.6-85.3%)) was superior to that of PlGF (50.0% (95% CI, 31.3-68.7%)) or PSV ratio (56.7% (95% CI, 37.4-74.5%)) but inferior to that of the combination of maternal risk factors, MAP multiples of the median (MoM) and PSV ratio delta (96.7% (95% CI, 82.8-99.9%)). Similarly, the DR of PE at any stage after assessment of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (62.7% (95% CI, 50.7-73.6%)) was superior to that of PlGF (52.0% (95% CI, 40.2-63.7%)) or PSV ratio (41.3% (95% CI, 30.1-53.3%)) but inferior to that of the combination of maternal risk factors, MAP MoM and PSV ratio delta (78.7% (95% CI, 67.7-87.3%)). The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results, both for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks and at any time after assessment.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with maternal risk factors and blood pressure could potentially replace measurement of PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio in the prediction of imminent PE. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck, WMAP, and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2018 observing season. We add additional Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and BICEP3 observations at 95 GHz to the previous 95/150/220  GHz dataset. The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8  μK_{CMB} arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈400 square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz. The 220 GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise ratio on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz and evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and no longer requires a prior on the frequency spectral index of the dust emission taken from measurements on other regions of the sky. This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.036 at 95% confidence. Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.009. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

Pneumothorax and Pneumatocoele Formation in a Patient with COVID-19: a Case Report

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes significant morbidity and mortality for a proportion of infected patients, and our knowledge and understanding of its clinical, radiological and histopathological features are still evolving. An association between COVID-19 and pneumothorax has been described in an increasing number of case reports and series in the literature, which have largely focused on clinical and imaging features. We report the case of a patient who developed COVID-19 complicated by pneumothorax, requiring surgical intervention. We describe the histopathological features seen in the thorascopically resected bullectomy specimen—this is, to our knowledge, the first reported description of the morphological features of pneumothorax in this important clinical setting.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Valve-in-Valve Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement and Bioprosthetic Valve Fracture Comparing Different Transcatheter Heart Valve Designs: An Ex Vivo Bench Study

OBJECTIVES

The authors assessed the effect of valve-in-valve (VIV) transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) followed by bioprosthetic valve fracture (BVF), testing different transcatheter heart valve (THV) designs in an ex vivo bench study.

BACKGROUND

Bioprosthetic valve fracture can be performed to improve residual transvalvular gradients following VIV TAVR.

METHODS

The authors evaluated VIV TAVR and BVF with the SAPIEN 3 (S3) (Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, California) and ACURATE neo (Boston Scientific Corporation, Natick, Massachusetts) THVs. A 20-mm and 23-mm S3 were deployed in a 19-mm and 21-mm Mitroflow (Sorin Group USA, Arvada, Colorado), respectively. A small ACURATE neo was deployed in both sizes of Mitroflow tested. VIV TAVR samples underwent multimodality imaging, and hydrodynamic evaluation before and after BVF.

RESULTS

A high implantation was required to enable full expansion of the upper crown of the ACURATE neo and allow optimal leaflet function. Marked underexpansion of the lower crown of the THV within the surgical valve was also observed. Before BVF, VIV TAVR in the 19-mm Mitroflow had high transvalvular gradients using either THV design (22.0 mm Hg S3, and 19.1 mm Hg ACURATE neo). After BVF, gradients improved and were similar for both THVs (14.2 mm Hg S3, and 13.8 mm Hg ACURATE neo). The effective orifice area increased with BVF from 1.2 to 1.6 cm² with the S3 and from 1.4 to 1.6 cm² with the ACURATE neo. Before BVF, VIV TAVR with the ACURATE neo in the 21-mm Mitroflow had lower gradients compared with S3 (11.3 mm Hg vs. 16 mm Hg). However, after BVF valve gradients were similar for both THVs (8.4 mm Hg ACURATE neo vs. 7.8 mm Hg S3). The effective orifice area increased from 1.5 to 2.1 cm² with the S3 and from 1.8 to 2.2 cm² with the ACURATE neo.

CONCLUSIONS

BVF performed after VIV TAVR results in improved residual gradients. Following BVF, residual gradients were similar irrespective of THV design. Use of a small ACURATE neo for VIV TAVR in small (≤21 mm) surgical valves may be associated with challenges in achieving optimum THV position and expansion. BVF could be considered in selected clinical cases.

Global trends in incidence and mortality of neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma

Background

Neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma is a leading cause of premature death and long-term disability as estimated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. To evaluate comparative improvements in prevention and survival, this analysis evaluated GBD 2017 mortality to incidence (MI) ratios as a proxy for case fatality over time, location, and socio-demographic status.

Methods

We derived estimates of cause-specific mortality and incidence at birth from GBD 2017, calculating MI ratios of neonatal encephalopathy in children &lt;1 year. We analyzed temporal, geographic, and socio-demographic trends in incidence, mortality, and MI ratio.

Results

Neonatal encephalopathy incidence shows little change over time, with global incidence in children under one essentially the same in 2017 (1,996 cases per 100,000 (1,334-2,912)) and 1990 (1,996 cases per 100,000 (1,331-2,926)). Regions show the same trend, though a large difference exists between the highest and lowest regional incidence, with incidence in Central Sub-Saharan Africa over 20 times higher than in Australasia. Over the same period, MI ratios for neonatal encephalopathy have decreased across all regions. Model input data represented 52 countries for prevalence and 145 countries for mortality, with notable data sparsity in Africa and Eastern Europe.

Conclusions

Case fatality of neonatal encephalopathy, as approximated by MI ratio, has declined worldwide over the past three decades, but incidence has shown little change. This suggests treatment of neonatal encephalopathy has improved, but more research is needed on risk factors in order to increase prevention. Continued work is also needed to reduce disparities in incidence and mortality between countries with different levels of SDI. Improving data coverage in lower SDI regions will be critical to accurately monitor progress toward reducing inequity.

Key messages

Neonatal encephalopathy is a leading cause of premature death and disability. Incidence of neonatal encephalopathy has changed little since 1990, indicating more work is needed on prevention. Case fatality of neonatal encephalopathy can be approximated by the mortality to incidence ratio, and has declined worldwide over the past three decades, suggesting improvements in treatment.

P3545Association between diastolic dysfunction and two-year survival in heart failure patients with mid-range or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

Background

Extensive studies have demonstrated prognostic impact of echocardiographic defined diastolic dysfunction (DD) in patients with preserved as well as reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Nevertheless, it remains controversial whether evaluation of DD could provide additional prognostic information in heart failure (HF) patients with impaired systolic function. The purpose of present study, therefore, is to investigate the prognostic impact of echocardiography-defined DD on survival in HF patients hospitalized in our centre from 2009 to 2017 with mid-range LVEF (HFmrEF, LVEF 41–49%) and reduced LVEF (HFrEF, LVEF<40%).

Methods

A total of 2018 patients with echocardiography-evidenced LVEF<50% and hospitalized in our centre between July 2009 to December 2017 were included. Baseline demographic and clinical data were obtained by reviewing the medical records. All patients subsequently completed a median clinical follow-up of 24 (IQR 13–36) months by medical record review or telephone interview. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality or heart transplantation (HTx). Patients were divided into mild, moderate and severe DD according to recent guidelines.

Results

The mean age was 69±13 years in the HFmrEF group and 68±13 years in the HFrEF group. All-cause mortality/HTx rate was significantly higher in the HFrEF (all-cause death n=318 and HTx n=11, 30.9%) group than in patients with HFmrEF (all-cause death n=235 and HTx n=2, 24.9%, P=0.003). All-cause mortality/HTx rate increased in proportion to DD severity in HFmrEF patients: 17.1% (54/315) in the mild DD group, 25.4% (115/452) in the moderate DD group, and 37.0% (68/184) in the severe DD group (P<0.001) and in HFrEF patients: 18.9% (43/228) in the mild DD group, 30.3% (146/482) in the moderate DD group, and 39.2% (140/357) in the severe DD group (P<0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that Doppler parameter early-diastolic mitral inflow velocity to septal mitral annular velocity ratio (E/E') >14 (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.06–1.89, P=0.020) and peak tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TRVmax) >2.8m/s (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.33–2.29, P<0.001) were independent determinants of all-cause mortality/HTx in patients with HFmrEF; while E/E'>14 (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.08–2.04, P=0.015) remained as an independent determinant of all-cause mortality/HTx in patients with HFrEF after adjustment for clinical and other echocardiographic confounders. Besides DD-related parameters, after adjustment with age and sex, lower tricuspid and mitral annular plane systolic excursions (TAPSE and MAPSE) were also closely related to higher mortality/HTx rate in both HFmrEF and HFrEF patients.

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier curves

Conclusion

Our results indicate that all-cause mortality/HTx rate increases in proportion to DD severity in both HFmrEF and HFrEF patients.

Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves Using Planck, WMAP, and New BICEP2/Keck Observations through the 2015 Season

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the bicep2/Keck CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2015 observing season. This includes the first Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and additional observations at 95 and 150 GHz. The Q and U maps reach depths of 5.2, 2.9, and 26  μK_{CMB} arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈400 square degrees. The 220 GHz maps achieve a signal to noise on polarized dust emission approximately equal to that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto and cross spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz. We evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed-ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and we impose priors on some of these using external information from Planck and WMAP derived from larger regions of sky. The model is shown to be an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.07 at 95% confidence, which tightens to r_{0.05}<0.06 in conjunction with Planck temperature measurements and other data. The lensing signal is detected at 8.8σ significance. Running a maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.020. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

A web-based prediction score for head and neck cancer referrals

OBJECTIVE

Following the announcement of the NHS Cancer Plan in 2000, anyone suspected of having cancer has to be seen by a specialist within 2 weeks of referral. Since this introduction, studies have shown that only 6.3%-14.6% of 2-week referrals were diagnosed with a head and neck cancer and that majority of the cancer diagnoses were via other referral routes. These studies suggest that the referral scheme is not currently cost-effective. Our aim is to develop a scoring system that determines the risk of head and neck cancer in a patient, which can then be used to aid GP referrals.

DESIGN

Retrospective data were collected from 1075 patients with 2-week head and neck cancer referrals from general practitioners. The retrospective data collected included patients' demographics, risk factors and relevant investigations. The data were used as input into a logistic regression to arrive at our model. Our approach included data analysis, machine learning techniques, statistical inference and model validation metrics to arrive at the best performing model. The model was then tested with more data from 235 prospective patients.

RESULTS

Using our results from the logistic regression, we created a web-based tool that GPs can use to calculate their patient's probability of cancer and use this result to assist in their decision regarding referral. Our prototype can be seen in Figure 2.

CONCLUSION

We have created a prototype scoring system that can be hosted online to assist GPs with their referrals with a sensitivity of 31% and specificity of 92%. While we acknowledge that there are several limitations to our model, we believe we have created a novel preliminary scoring system that has the potential to be improved dramatically with further data and be very helpful for GPs in a long run.

Multi-centre Raman spectral mapping of oesophageal cancer tissues: a study to assess system transferability

The potential for Raman spectroscopy to provide early and improved diagnosis on a wide range of tissue and biopsy samples in situ is well documented. The standard histopathology diagnostic methods of reviewing H&E and/or immunohistochemical (IHC) stained tissue sections provides valuable clinical information, but requires both logistics (review, analysis and interpretation by an expert) and costly processing and reagents. Vibrational spectroscopy offers a complimentary diagnostic tool providing specific and multiplexed information relating to molecular structure and composition, but is not yet used to a significant extent in a clinical setting. One of the challenges for clinical implementation is that each Raman spectrometer system will have different characteristics and therefore spectra are not readily compatible between systems. This is essential for clinical implementation where classification models are used to compare measured biochemical or tissue spectra against a library training dataset. In this study, we demonstrate the development and validation of a classification model to discriminate between adenocarcinoma (AC) and non-cancerous intraepithelial metaplasia (IM) oesophageal tissue samples, measured on three different Raman instruments across three different locations. Spectra were corrected using system transfer spectral correction algorithms including wavenumber shift (offset) correction, instrument response correction and baseline removal. The results from this study indicate that the combined correction methods do minimize the instrument and sample quality variations within and between the instrument sites. However, more tissue samples of varying pathology states and greater tissue area coverage (per sample) are needed to properly assess the ability of Raman spectroscopy and system transferability algorithms over multiple instrument sites.

Observational evidence of a long-term increase in precipitation due to urbanization effects and its implications for sustainable urban living

Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality.

Splenectomy as a Destination: Improving Quality of Care Among Asplenic Veterans Through a Travel Clinic

BACKGROUND

Asplenic patients are at risk for severe infections, but adherence to recommended preventive education and vaccination is poor. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that a targeted intervention can improve vaccination rates in a population of asplenic veterans.

METHODS

Surgically asplenic patients actively receiving care in our health care system were identified via a database search. Patients were contacted via mailed letters and encouraged to attend an existing travel clinic with a new process designed for asplenic patients. In the clinic, patients were educated on the risks of asplenia and proper preventive precautions, a vaccination history was taken, and patients were administered any additional indicated vaccines.

RESULTS

The database search yielded 113 patients; an additional 14 asplenic patients were identified and referred to the clinic by providers, and 2 were referred prior to planned splenectomy. Among all asplenic patients, the first-year referral rate to clinic was 38/129 (29%). During the first year of the intervention, there were increases in the rates of 3 of 4 recommended vaccinations: pneumococcal conjugate, 19% to 55% (P <.001); Haemophilus influenzae type B, 19% to 35% (P = .007); and meningococcal vaccine, 24% to 43% (P = .002). The pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination rate increased from 91% to 93% (P = .62).

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted interventions can improve guideline-based care for asplenic patients. The creation of a clinic designed for asplenic patients led to increases in 3 of 4 recommended vaccinations. This strategy may be applicable to other health care systems with similar numbers of asplenic patients.

Evolution of the Reactor Antineutrino Flux and Spectrum at Daya Bay

The Daya Bay experiment has observed correlations between reactor core fuel evolution and changes in the reactor antineutrino flux and energy spectrum. Four antineutrino detectors in two experimental halls were used to identify 2.2 million inverse beta decays (IBDs) over 1230 days spanning multiple fuel cycles for each of six 2.9 GW_{th} reactor cores at the Daya Bay and Ling Ao nuclear power plants. Using detector data spanning effective ^{239}Pu fission fractions F_{239} from 0.25 to 0.35, Daya Bay measures an average IBD yield σ[over ¯]_{f} of (5.90±0.13)×10^{-43}  cm^{2}/fission and a fuel-dependent variation in the IBD yield, dσ_{f}/dF_{239}, of (-1.86±0.18)×10^{-43}  cm^{2}/fission. This observation rejects the hypothesis of a constant antineutrino flux as a function of the ^{239}Pu fission fraction at 10 standard deviations. The variation in IBD yield is found to be energy dependent, rejecting the hypothesis of a constant antineutrino energy spectrum at 5.1 standard deviations. While measurements of the evolution in the IBD spectrum show general agreement with predictions from recent reactor models, the measured evolution in total IBD yield disagrees with recent predictions at 3.1σ. This discrepancy indicates that an overall deficit in the measured flux with respect to predictions does not result from equal fractional deficits from the primary fission isotopes ^{235}U, ^{239}Pu, ^{238}U, and ^{241}Pu. Based on measured IBD yield variations, yields of (6.17±0.17) and (4.27±0.26)×10^{-43}  cm^{2}/fission have been determined for the two dominant fission parent isotopes ^{235}U and ^{239}Pu. A 7.8% discrepancy between the observed and predicted ^{235}U yields suggests that this isotope may be the primary contributor to the reactor antineutrino anomaly.