Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens from Wild Pigs in Northern and Central Florida

Invasive wild pigs are distributed across much of the U.S. and are hosts to tick vectors of human disease. Herein, adult ticks were collected from 157 wild pigs in 21 northern and central Florida counties from 2019-2020 during removal efforts by USDA-APHIS Wildlife Services personnel and evaluated for their potential to be used as a method of tick-borne disease surveillance. Collected ticks were identified, screened for pathogens, and the effects of landscape metrics on tick community composition and abundance were investigated. A total of 1415 adult ticks of four species were collected. The diversity of tick species collected from wild pigs was comparable to collections made throughout the state with conventional surveillance methods. All species collected have implications for pathogen transmission to humans and other animals. Ehrlichia, Anaplasma-like, and Rickettsia spp. were detected in ticks collected from wild pigs. These results suggest that tick collection from wild pigs is a suitable means of surveillance for pathogens and vectors. The strongest drivers of variation in tick community composition were the developed open space and mixed forest landcover classes. Fragmented shrub/scrub habitat was associated with increased tick abundance. Similar models may be useful in predicting tick abundance and distribution patterns.

Comparison of ectoparasite communities of sylvatic and urban wild mesomammals and unowned community cats in north-central Florida

The adaptation of wildlife species to urban environments can drive changes in the ecology of ectoparasites and vector-borne disease. To better understand ectoparasite dynamics in an urban environment, we investigated the ectoparasite communities of 183 sylvatic and urban opossums and raccoons captured across four seasons at a rural research station and within the city of Gainesville, FL, and of 115 community cats from the Gainesville, FL area. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis (Say), and Ixodes texanus Banks were collected from raccoons, A. americanum, D. variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis Say from opossums, and A. americanum from cats. Few ticks were collected from urban animals, although species richness of ectoparasites was similar between urban and sylvatic habitats. Ctenocephalides felis (Bouché) (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) was collected from all sampled host species, but was particularly abundant on opossums. Additionally, Orchopeas howardi (Baker) (Siphonaptera: Ceratophyllidae) was collected from raccoons, and O. howardi and Xenopsylla cheopis (Rothschild) (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) from opossums. Only raccoons were infested with raccoon lice, and only cats were infested with cat lice. Primarily opossums were infested with mites. Ectoparasite community composition varied by habitat, host species, and season; seasonal variation in ectoparasite communities differed between the sylvatic and urban habitats. While urban mesomammals did not appear to play an important role in supporting tick populations in an urban habitat, urban opossums appear to serve as an alternate host for large numbers of cat fleas, which may be an important consideration for treatment and control efforts against ectoparasites of companion animals.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

SURVEY OF INVASIVE MOSQUITO SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL CAPACITY IN SOUTHEASTERN USA REVEALS TRAINING AND RESOURCE NEEDS

Several invasive mosquito species that are nuisances or of medical and veterinary importance have been introduced into the Southeastern region of the USA, posing a threat to other species and the local ecosystems and/or increasing the risk of pathogen transmission to people, livestock, and domestic pets. Prompt and effective monitoring and control of invasive species is essential to prevent them from spreading and causing harmful effects. However, the capacity for invasive mosquito species surveillance is highly variable among mosquito control programs in the Southeast, depending on a combination of factors such as regional geography and climate, access to resources, and the ability to interact with other programs. To facilitate the development of invasive mosquito surveillance in the region, we, the Mosquito BEACONS (Biodiversity Enhancement and Control of Non-native Species) working group, conducted a survey on the capacities of various public health agencies and pest control agencies engaged in mosquito surveillance and control in seven Southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina). Ninety control programs completed the survey, representing an overall response rate of 25.8%. We report key findings from our survey, emphasizing the training and resource needs, and discuss their implications for future invasive mosquito surveillance and control capacity building. By increasing communication and collaboration opportunities (e.g., real-time sharing of collection records, coordinated multistate programs), the establishment of Mosquito BEACONS and the implementation of this survey can accelerate knowledge transfer and improve decision support capacity in response to or in preparation for invasive mosquito surveillance and can establish infrastructure that can be used to inform programs around the world.

Co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito vectors of West Nile and Eastern equine encephalitis viruses using Markov Random Fields (MRFcov)

Mosquito vectors of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) in the USA reside within broad multi-species assemblages that vary in spatial and temporal composition, relative abundances and vector competence. These variations impact the risk of pathogen transmission and the operational management of these species by local public health vector control districts. However, most models of mosquito vector dynamics focus on single species and do not account for co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito species pairs across environmental gradients. In this investigation, we use for the first time conditional Markov Random Fields (CRF) to evaluate spatial co-occurrence patterns between host-seeking mosquito vectors of EEEV and WNV around sampling sites in Manatee County, Florida. Specifically, we aimed to: (i) quantify correlations between mosquito vector species and other mosquito species; (ii) quantify correlations between mosquito vectors and landscape and climate variables; and (iii) investigate whether the strength of correlations between species pairs are conditional on landscape or climate variables. We hypothesized that either mosquito species pairs co-occur in patterns driven by the landscape and/or climate variables, or these vector species pairs are unconditionally dependent on each other regardless of the environmental variables. Our results indicated that landscape and bioclimatic covariates did not substantially improve the overall model performance and that the log abundances of the majority of WNV and EEEV vector species were positively dependent on other vector and non-vector mosquito species, unconditionally. Only five individual mosquito vectors were weakly dependent on environmental variables with one exception, Culiseta melanura, the primary vector for EEEV, which showed a strong correlation with woody wetland, precipitation seasonality and average temperature of driest quarter. Our analyses showed that majority of the studied mosquito species' abundance and distribution are insignificantly better predicted by the biotic correlations than by environmental variables. Additionally, these mosquito vector species may be habitat generalists, as indicated by the unconditional correlation matrices between species pairs, which could have confounded our analysis, but also indicated that the approach could be operationalized to leverage species co-occurrences as indicators of vector abundances in unsampled areas, or under scenarios where environmental variables are not informative.

Predicting potential transmission risk of Everglades virus in Florida using mosquito blood meal identifications

The overlap between arbovirus host, arthropod vectors, and pathogen distributions in environmentally suitable habitats represents a nidus where risk for pathogen transmission may occur. Everglades virus (EVEV), subtype II Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), is endemic to southern Florida where it is transmitted by the endemic vector Culex cedecei between muroid rodent hosts. We developed an ecological niche model (ENM) to predict areas in Florida suitable for EVEV transmission based upon georeferenced vector-host interactions from PCR-based blood meal analysis from blood-engorged female Cx. cedecei females. Thirteen environmental variables were used for model calibration, including bioclimatic variables derived from Daymet 1 km daily temperature and precipitation values, and land use and land cover data representing percent land cover derived within a 2.5 km buffer from 2019 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) program. Maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of the driest month contributed 31.6%, 28.5% and 19.9% to ENM performance. The land cover types contributing the greatest to the model performance were percent landcover of emergent herbaceous and woody wetlands which contributed 5.2% and 4.3% to model performance, respectively. Results of the model output showed high suitability for Cx. cedecei feeding on rodents throughout the southwestern portion of the state and pockets of high suitability along the northern east coast of Florida, while areas with low suitability included the Miami-Dade metropolitan area and most of northern Florida and the Panhandle. Comparing predicted distributions of Cx. cedecei feeding upon rodent hosts in the present study to historical human cases of EVEV disease, as well as antibodies in wildlife show substantial overlap with areas predicted moderate to highly suitable for these vector/host associations. As such, the findings of this study likely predict the most accurate distribution of the nidus of EVEV to date, indicating that this method allows for better inference of potential transmission areas than models which only consider the vector or vertebrate host species individually. A similar approach using host blood meals of other arboviruses can be used to predict potential areas of virus transmission for other vector-borne diseases.

West Nile Virus Surveillance in Sentinel Chickens and Mosquitoes in Panama City Beach, Florida, from 2014 To 2020

Over 20 years since its introduction, the West Nile virus (WNV) continues to be the leading cause of arboviral disease in the USA. In Panama City Beach (Bay County, FL), WNV transmission is monitored using sentinel chickens and testing mosquito pools for presence of viral RNA. In the current work, we monitored WNV transmission from 2014 to 2020 through weekly serology sampling of sentinel chickens; mosquito populations through biweekly mosquito collections by suction traps (1 m and 9 m) and weekly gravid trap collections; and mosquito infection rates using a reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. Samples were sent to the Bureau of Public Health Laboratories (Tampa, FL) for testing presence/absence of WNV via RT-PCR assay. Our results indicated that canopy surveillance could augment ground collections, providing greater proportions of Culex mosquitoes with less bycatch compared with ground collections. Serology indicated 94 seroconversions to WNV in the study area from 2014 to 2020. The most active year was 2016, which accounted for 32% (n = 30) of all seroconversions reported during the study period. We detected 20 WNV-positive mosquito pools from Culex quinquefasciatus during 2014-17; mosquito infection rates ranged from 2.02 to 23.81 per thousand (95% CI). Climate data indicated anomalously high precipitation in 2014-19 preceding WNV transmission. Data analyzed herein indicate utility in year-round continuous and diversified surveillance methodologies. This information is needed to properly calibrate future models that could assist with predicting transmission events of WNV in Panama City Beach, FL.

Predicting the potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) cedecei in Florida and the Caribbean using ecological niche models

Everglades virus (EVEV), an enzootic subtype of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, along with its endemic mosquito vector, Culex cedecei, is known only from South Florida. The taxonomy of Cx. cedecei is complex and was once synonymous with Culex opisthopus and Culex taeniopus. We modeled potential distribution of Cx. cedecei in Florida and the Caribbean using an ecological niche model and compared this distribution to the recorded distribution of EVEV in Florida as well as historical records of Cx. opisthopus/Cx. taeniopus. We used recent collections and occurrence data from scientific publications and temperature/precipitation variables and vegetation greenness values to calibrate models. We found mean annual temperature contributed the greatest to model performance. Everglades virus in humans and wildlife corresponded with areas predicted suitable for Cx. cedecei in Florida but not with incidence of antibodies reported in dogs. Most records of Cx. opisthopus/Cx. taeniopus in the Caribbean did not correspond to areas predicted suitable for Cx. cedecei, which may be due to mean annual temperature values in the Caribbean exceeding values within the calibration region, imposing model constraints. Results indicated that this model may adequately predict the distributions of Cx. cedecei within Florida but cannot predict areas suitable in the Caribbean.

Application of Deep Learning to Community-Science-Based Mosquito Monitoring and Detection of Novel Species

Mosquito-borne diseases account for human morbidity and mortality worldwide, caused by the parasites (e.g., malaria) or viruses (e.g., dengue, Zika) transmitted through bites of infected female mosquitoes. Globally, billions of people are at risk of infection, imposing significant economic and public health burdens. As such, efficient methods to monitor mosquito populations and prevent the spread of these diseases are at a premium. One proposed technique is to apply acoustic monitoring to the challenge of identifying wingbeats of individual mosquitoes. Although researchers have successfully used wingbeats to survey mosquito populations, implementation of these techniques in areas most affected by mosquito-borne diseases remains challenging. Here, methods utilizing easily accessible equipment and encouraging community-scientist participation are more likely to provide sufficient monitoring. We present a practical, community-science-based method of monitoring mosquito populations using smartphones. We applied deep-learning algorithms (TensorFlow Inception v3) to spectrogram images generated from smartphone recordings associated with six mosquito species to develop a multiclass mosquito identification system, and flag potential invasive vectors not present in our sound reference library. Though TensorFlow did not flag potential invasive species with high accuracy, it was able to identify species present in the reference library at an 85% correct identification rate, an identification rate markedly higher than similar studies employing expensive recording devices. Given that we used smartphone recordings with limited sample sizes, these results are promising. With further optimization, we propose this novel technique as a way to accurately and efficiently monitor mosquito populations in areas where doing so is most critical.

Mosquito Control Priorities in Florida-Survey Results from Florida Mosquito Control Districts

Florida lies within a subtropical region where the climate allows diverse mosquito species including invasive species to thrive year-round. As of 2021, there are currently 66 state-approved Florida Mosquito Control Districts, which are major stakeholders for Florida public universities engaged in mosquito research. Florida is one of the few states with extensive organized mosquito control programs. The Florida State Government and Florida Mosquito Control Districts have long histories of collaboration with research institutions. During fall 2020, we carried out a survey to collect baseline data on the current control priorities from Florida Mosquito Control Districts relating to (1) priority control species, (2) common adult and larval control methods, and (3) major research questions to address that will improve their control and surveillance programs. The survey data showed that a total of 17 distinct mosquito species were considered to be priority control targets, with many of these species being understudied. The most common control approaches included truck-mounted ultra-low-volume adulticiding and biopesticide-based larviciding. The districts held interest in diverse research questions, with many prioritizing studies on basic science questions to help develop evidence-based control strategies. Our data highlight the fact that mosquito control approaches and priorities differ greatly between districts and provide an important point of comparison for other regions investing in mosquito control, particularly those with similar ecological settings, and great diversity of potential mosquito vectors, such as in Florida. Our findings highlight a need for greater alignment of research priorities between mosquito control and mosquito research. In particular, we note a need to prioritize filling knowledge gaps relating to understudied mosquito species that have been implicated in arbovirus transmission.

Evidence of Local Extinction and Reintroduction of Aedes aegypti in Exeter, California

Established populations of Aedes aegypti, a mosquito vector of multiple major arthropod-borne viruses, were first found in three California (CA) cities in 2013. From 2013 to April 2021, Ae. aegypti thwarted almost all control efforts to stop its spread and expanded its range to 308 cities, including Exeter, in 22 counties in CA. Population genomic analyses have suggested that multiple genetically distinct Ae. aegypti populations were introduced into CA. However Ae. aegypti collected for the first time in 2014 in Exeter, appeared to be different from three major genetic clusters found elsewhere in CA. Due to intense control efforts by the Delta Vector Control District (DVCD), Ae. aegypti was thought to have been eliminated from Exeter in 2015. Unfortunately, it was recollected in 2018. It was not clear if the reemergence of Ae. aegypti in Exeter was derived from the bottlenecked remnants of the original 2014 Exeter population or from an independent invasion from a different population derived from surrounding areas. The goal of this work was to determine which of these scenarios occurred (recovery after bottleneck or reintroduction after elimination) and if elimination and reintroduction occurred to identify the origin of the invading population using a population genomic approach. Our results support the reintroduction after elimination hypothesis. The source of reintroduction, however, was unexpectedly from the southern CA cluster rather than from other two geographically closer central CA genetic clusters. We also conducted a knockdown resistance mutation profile, which showed Exeter 2014 had the lowest level of resistant alleles compared to the other populations, could have contributed towards DVCD’s ability to locally eliminate Ae. aegypti in 2014.

Potential Distribution of Aedes (Ochlerotatus) scapularis (Diptera: Culicidae): A Vector Mosquito New to the Florida Peninsula

Simple Summary

Aedes scapularis is an important mosquito species capable of transmitting viruses and parasites to humans and animals. Aedes scapularis was previously known to occur throughout large portions of the Americas, from the lower Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas to Argentina and on several Caribbean Islands. Recently, this mosquito became established in southern Florida, marking the first time Ae. scapularis was found on the Florida Peninsula. Now that Ae. scapularis has reached the Florida Peninsula, it is expected to continue to expand its geographic distribution to fill contiguous areas with suitable environments. Here, we use a modeling approach that correlates environmental variables with known geographic collection locations of Ae. scapularis to predict the potential distribution of this species. The output of this model provides new information for mosquito control and public health agencies to help monitor the spread of this exotic vector mosquito and suggests a need for surveillance for the expansion of this mosquito in many of Florida’s coastal counties.

Abstract

Aedes scapularis is a neotropical mosquito known to transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance. Its recent establishment in southeastern Florida has potential public health implications. We used an ecological niche modeling approach to predict the abiotic environmental suitability for Ae. scapularis across much of the Americas and Caribbean Islands. Georeferenced occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Inventory Facility and recent collection records of Ae. scapularis from southern Florida served as input for model calibration. Environmental layers included bioclimatic variables provided in 2000 to 2010 average Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications climatic (MERRAclim) data. Models were run in the software program Maxent. Isothermality values often found in costal environments, had the greatest contribution to model performance. Model projections suggested that there are areas predicted to be suitable for Ae. Scapularis across portions of the Amazon Basin, the Yucatán Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, and multiple Caribbean Islands. Additionally, model predictions suggested connectivity of highly suitable or relatively suitable environments spanning the United States Gulf Coast, which may facilitate the geographic expansion of this species. At least sixteen Florida counties were predicted to be highly suitable for Ae. scapularis, suggesting that vigilance is needed by vector control and public health agencies to recognize the further spread of this vector.

Mosquito Community Composition, Seasonal Distributions, and Trap Bias in Northeastern Florida

Mosquito control agencies monitor mosquito diversity and abundance through a variety of trap types. Although various long-term ecological data sets exist, little work has been done to address the sampling effort required to capture mosquito community diversity by trap type and few spatiotemporal distributions of vector species have been described. Here, we describe the seasonal distributions of vector species of importance, assess trapping effort needed to capture the diversity of the mosquito community, and use a partial redundancy analysis to identify trap bias from four commonly deployed adult mosquito traps in Volusia County, Florida. Collections were made with American Biophysics Corporation (ABC) light traps, Biogents Sentinel (BGS) traps, chicken coop exit traps, and gravid traps. We collected a total of 238,301 adult female mosquitoes belonging to 11 genera and 36 species, 12 of which we deemed to be vector species of epidemiological importance. We found that ABC traps not only yielded the greatest abundance and diversity but also captured several nonvector species. BGS and gravid traps yielded the highest proportions of vector species; exit traps recorded the lowest abundances and species richness. Wintertime abundances of several species demonstrated a need for year-round surveillance in the study area; partial redundancy analysis revealed that trap type explained a significant proportion of the variance in our data set, with certain vector species associated with specific trap types. Increased awareness regarding the amount of trapping effort needed to detect vector species diversity will help to optimize efforts in the field, leading to more effective resource allocation.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

BACKGROUND

Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d'Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Georeferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche-and consequently in geographic distribution-between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Predicting Abundances of Aedes mcintoshi, a primary Rift Valley fever virus mosquito vector

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus with important livestock and human health, and economic consequences across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Climate and vegetation monitoring guide RVFV forecasting models and early warning systems; however, these approaches make monthly predictions and a need exists to predict primary vector abundances at finer temporal scales. In Kenya, an important primary RVFV vector is the mosquito Aedes mcintoshi. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multimodel averaging approach with georeferenced Ae. mcintoshi mosquito counts and remotely sensed climate and topographic variables to predict where and when abundances would be high in Kenya and western Somalia. The data supported a positive effect on abundance of minimum wetness index values within 500 m of a sampling site, cumulative precipitation values 0 to 14 days prior to sampling, and elevated land surface temperature values ~3 weeks prior to sampling. The probability of structural zero counts of mosquitoes increased as percentage clay in the soil decreased. Weekly retrospective predictions for unsampled locations across the study area between 1 September and 25 January from 2002 to 2016 predicted high abundances prior to RVFV outbreaks in multiple foci during the 2006-2007 epizootic, except for two districts in Kenya. Additionally, model predictions supported the possibility of high Ae. mcintoshi abundances in Somalia, independent of Kenya. Model-predicted abundances were low during the 2015-2016 period when documented outbreaks did not occur, although several surveillance systems issued warnings. Model predictions prior to the 2018 RVFV outbreak indicated elevated abundances in Wajir County, Kenya, along the border with Somalia, but RVFV activity occurred west of the focus of predicted high Ae. mcintoshi abundances.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto

Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species' invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.

Landscape Genetics of Aedes mcintoshi (Diptera: Culicidae), an Important Vector of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Northeastern Kenya

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a vector-borne, zoonotic disease that affects humans, wild ungulates, and domesticated livestock in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Rift Valley fever virus exhibits interepizootic and epizootic phases, the latter defined by widespread virus occurrence in domesticated livestock. Kenya appears to be particularly vulnerable to epizootics, with 11 outbreaks occurring between 1951 and 2007. The mosquito species Aedes mcintoshi (subgenus Neomelaniconion) is an important primary vector for RVFV in Kenya. Here, we investigate associations between genetic diversity and differentiation of one regional subclade of Ae. mcintoshi in Northeastern Kenya with environmental variables, using a multivariate statistical approach. Using CO1 (cytochrome oxidase subunit 1) sequence data deposited in GenBank, we found no evidence of isolation by distance contributing to genetic differentiation across the study area. However, we did find significant CO1 subpopulation structure and associations with recent mean precipitation values. In addition, variation in genetic diversity across our seven sample sites was associated with both precipitation and percentage clay in the soil. The large number of haplotypes found in this data set indicates that a great deal of diversity remains unsampled in this region. Additional sampling across a larger geographic area, combined with next-generation sequencing approaches that better characterize the genome, would provide a more robust assessment of genetic diversity and differentiation. Further understanding of the genetic structure of Ae. mcintoshi could provide useful information regarding the potential for RVFV to spread across East African landscapes.

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts.

Automated identification of insect vectors of Chagas disease in Brazil and Mexico: the Virtual Vector Lab

Identification of arthropods important in disease transmission is a crucial, yet difficult, task that can demand considerable training and experience. An important case in point is that of the 150+ species of Triatominae, vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, causative agent of Chagas disease across the Americas. We present a fully automated system that is able to identify triatomine bugs from Mexico and Brazil with an accuracy consistently above 80%, and with considerable potential for further improvement. The system processes digital photographs from a photo apparatus into landmarks, and uses ratios of measurements among those landmarks, as well as (in a preliminary exploration) two measurements that approximate aspects of coloration, as the basis for classification. This project has thus produced a working prototype that achieves reasonably robust correct identification rates, although many more developments can and will be added, and-more broadly-the project illustrates the value of multidisciplinary collaborations in resolving difficult and complex challenges.

Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors

Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which--given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species--are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.

Spatial Analysis of Anthropogenic Landscape Disturbance and Buruli Ulcer Disease in Benin

BACKGROUND

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one anthropogenic disturbance linked to infectious disease emergence. Current research has focused largely on wildlife and vector-borne zoonotic diseases, neglecting to investigate landscape disturbance and environmental bacterial infections. One example is Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, a necrotizing skin disease caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU). Empirical and anecdotal observations have linked BU incidence to landscape disturbance, but potential relationships have not been quantified as they relate to land cover configurations.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A landscape ecological approach utilizing Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial random effects was used to test study hypotheses that land cover configurations indicative of anthropogenic disturbance were related to Buruli ulcer (BU) disease in southern Benin, and that a spatial structure existed for drivers of BU case distribution in the region. A final objective was to generate a continuous, risk map across the study region. Results suggested that villages surrounded by naturally shaped, or undisturbed rather than disturbed, wetland patches at a distance within 1200 m were at a higher risk for BU, and study outcomes supported the hypothesis that a spatial structure exists for the drivers behind BU risk in the region. The risk surface corresponded to known BU endemicity in Benin and identified moderate risk areas within the boundary of Togo.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study was a first attempt to link land cover configurations representative of anthropogenic disturbances to BU prevalence. Study results identified several significant variables, including the presence of natural wetland areas, warranting future investigations into these factors at additional spatial and temporal scales. A major contribution of this study included the incorporation of a spatial modeling component that predicted BU rates to new locations without strong knowledge of environmental factors contributing to disease distribution.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

INTRODUCTION

In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel.

METHODS

To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions.

RESULTS

We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate.

CONCLUSIONS

Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over the past 30 years. Although the mode of transmission remains uncertain, the spatial pattern of BU emergence in recent years seems to suggest that there is an environmental niche for M. ulcerans and BU prevalence.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Network analysis was applied to BU cases in Victoria, Australia, from 1981-2008. Results revealed a non-random spatio-temporal pattern at the regional scale as well as a stable and efficient BU disease network, indicating that deterministic factors influence the occurrence of this disease. Monthly BU incidence reported by locality was analyzed with landscape and climate data using a multilevel Poisson regression approach. The results suggest the highest BU risk areas occur at low elevations with forested land cover, similar to previous studies of BU risk in West Africa. Additionally, climate conditions as far as 1.5 years in advance appear to impact disease incidence. Warmer and wetter conditions 18-19 months prior to case emergence, followed by a dry period approximately 5 months prior to case emergence seem to favor the occurrence of BU.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The BU network structure in Victoria, Australia, suggests external environmental factors favor M. ulcerans transmission and, therefore, BU incidence. A unique combination of environmental conditions, including land cover type, temperature and a wet-dry sequence, may produce habitat characteristics that support M. ulcerans transmission and BU prevalence. These findings imply that future BU research efforts on transmission mechanisms should focus on potential vectors/reservoirs found in those environmental niches. Further, this study is the first to quantitatively estimate environmental lag times associated with BU outbreaks, providing insights for future transmission investigations.

Detection of Mycobacterium ulcerans in the environment predicts prevalence of Buruli ulcer in Benin

Background

Mycobacterium ulcerans is the causative agent of Buruli ulcer (BU). In West Africa there is an association between BU and residence in low-lying rural villages where aquatic sources are plentiful. Infection occurs through unknown environmental exposure; human-to-human infection is rare. Molecular evidence for M. ulcerans in environmental samples is well documented, but the association of M. ulcerans in the environment with Buruli ulcer has not been studied in West Africa in an area with accurate case data.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Environmental samples were collected from twenty-five villages in three communes of Benin. Sites sampled included 12 BU endemic villages within the Ouheme and Couffo River drainages and 13 villages near the Mono River and along the coast or ridge where BU has never been identified. Triplicate water filtrand samples from major water sources and samples from three dominant aquatic plant species were collected. Detection of M. ulcerans was based on quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Results show a significant association between M. ulcerans in environmental samples and Buruli ulcer cases in a village (p = 0.0001). A “dose response” was observed in that increasing numbers of M. ulceran- positive environmental samples were associated with increasing prevalence of BU cases (R² = 0.586).

Conclusions/Significance

This study provides the first spatial data on the overlap of M. ulcerans in the environment and BU cases in Benin where case data are based on active surveillance. The study also provides the first evidence on M. ulcerans in well-defined non-endemic sites. Most environmental pathogens are more broadly distributed in the environment than in human populations. The congruence of M. ulcerans in the environment and human infection raises the possibility that humans play a role in the ecology of M. ulcerans. Methods developed could be useful for identifying new areas where humans may be at high risk for BU.

Buruli ulcer, a severe, cutaneous disease in West and Central Africa is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. Person-to-person spread of M. ulcerans is rare. There is a strong epidemiological association with residence near slow moving water, but lack of accurate case data in Africa has greatly complicated transmission studies of M. ulcerans from the environment to humans. We have combined molecular tools for identification of M. ulcerans in the environment with accurate Buruli ulcer case data based on a long standing active surveillance program to map the association between Buruli ulcer and M. ulcerans in the environment in Benin. We found a positive association between M. ulcerans in the environment and Buruli ulcer cases and show that as the numbers of M. ulcerans positive samples/village increase so does the prevalence of Buruli ulcer. Many environmental pathogens are widespread in the environment in the absence of human disease. The failure to obtain definitive proof for M. ulcerans in environmental samples where Buruli ulcer is absent raises the intriguing possibility that humans play a role in the distribution of M. ulcerans. Sampling methods we have developed could be especially useful for identifying new areas where people may be at risk for Buruli ulcer.

Demonstration of high-trapping efficiency and narrow energy spread in a laser-driven accelerator

Laser-driven electron accelerators (laser linacs) offer the potential for enabling much more economical and compact devices. However, the development of practical and efficient laser linacs requires accelerating a large ensemble of electrons together ("trapping") while keeping their energy spread small. This has never been realized before for any laser acceleration system. We present here the first demonstration of high-trapping efficiency and narrow energy spread via laser acceleration. Trapping efficiencies of up to 80% and energy spreads down to 0.36% (1 sigma) were demonstrated.

First staging of two laser accelerators

Staging of two laser-driven, relativistic electron accelerators has been demonstrated for the first time in a proof-of-principle experiment, whereby two distinct and serial laser accelerators acted on an electron beam in a coherently cumulative manner. Output from a CO2 laser was split into two beams to drive two inverse free electron lasers (IFEL) separated by 2.3 m. The first IFEL served to bunch the electrons into approximately 3 fs microbunches, which were rephased with the laser wave in the second IFEL. This represents a crucial step towards the development of practical laser-driven electron accelerators.