Consensus on a social return on investment model of physical activity and sport: a Delphi study protocol

Background

Physical activity and sport (PAS) have been related to many health outcomes and social benefits. The main aim of this research is to build a Social Return on Investment (SROI) model of PAS based on experts' opinion to clarify the domains of impact and how to measure and value them.

Methods and analysis

A Delphi method will be employed with a systematic review on the SROI framework applied to PAS and initial interviews with experts informing the design of the Delphi survey statements. Three iterative rounds of communication with the expert panel will be carried out. Participants will indicate their level of agreement with each statement on a five-point Likert scale. During the second and third iterative rounds, experts will reappraise the statements and will be provided with a summary of the group responses from the panel. A statement will have reached consensus if ≥70% of the panel agree/strongly agree or disagree/strongly disagree after round 3. Finally, group meetings (3-4 experts) will be conducted to ask about the measurement and valuation methods for each domain.

Discussion

The final goal of this project will result in the design of a toolkit for organizations, professionals, and policymakers on how to measure the social benefits of PAS.

A Retrospective Analysis of Surgical Acuity & Procedure Volume Before & During the COVID-19 Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

In March 2020, the American College of Surgeons recommended postponing elective procedures amid the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Medicare claims to analyze changes in surgical and interventional procedure volumes from 2016 to 2021.

METHODS

We studied 37 common surgical and interventional procedures using 5% Medicare claims files from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2021. Procedures were classified according to American College of Surgeons guidelines as low, intermediate, or high acuity, and counts were analyzed per calendar year quarter (Q1-Q4), with stratification by sex and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

We observed 1,840,577 procedures and identified two periods of marked decline. In Q2 2020, overall procedure counts decreased by 32.2%, with larger declines in low (41.1%) and intermediate (30.8%) acuity procedures. High acuity procedures declined the least (18.2%). Overall volumes increased afterward but never returned to baseline. Another marked decline occurred in Q4 2021, with all acuity levels having declined to a similar extent (40.1%, 44.2%, and 46.9% for low, intermediate, and high acuity, respectively). High and intermediate acuity procedures declined more in Q4 2021 than Q2 2020 (P = 0.002). Similar patterns were observed across sex and race/ethnicity strata.

CONCLUSIONS

Two major procedural volume declines occurred between 2020 and 2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. High acuity (life or limb threatening) procedures were least affected in the first decline (Q2 2020) but not spared in second decline (Q4 2021). Future efforts should prioritize preserving high-acuity access during times of stress.

Hypertension Control During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Cohort Study Among US Veterans

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine whether disruptions in follow-up intervals contributed to hypertension control.

BACKGROUND

Disruptions in health care were widespread during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified a cohort of individuals with hypertension in both prepandemic (March 2019-February 2020) and pandemic periods (March 2020-February 2022) in the Veterans Health Administration. First, we calculated follow-up intervals between the last prepandemic and first pandemic blood pressure measurement during a primary care clinic visit, and between measurements in the prepandemic period. Next, we estimated the association between the maintenance of (or achieving) hypertension control and the period using generalized estimating equations. We assessed associations between follow-up interval and control separately for periods. Finally, we evaluated the interaction between period and follow-up length.

RESULTS

A total of 1,648,424 individuals met the study inclusion criteria. Among individuals with controlled hypertension, the likelihood of maintaining control was lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.93). Longer follow-up intervals were associated with a decreasing likelihood of maintaining controlled hypertension in both periods. Accounting for follow-up intervals, the likelihood of maintaining control was 2% lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic. For uncontrolled hypertension, the likelihood of gaining control was modestly higher during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.01). The likelihood of gaining control decreased with follow-up length during the prepandemic but not pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, longer follow-up between measurements contributed to the lower likelihood of maintaining control. Those with uncontrolled hypertension were modestly more likely to gain control in the pandemic.

Modeling Thyroid Cancer Epidemiology in the United States Using Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model

OBJECTIVES

Thyroid cancer incidence increased over 200% from 1992 to 2018, whereas mortality rates had not increased proportionately. The increased incidence has been attributed primarily to the detection of subclinical disease, raising important questions related to thyroid cancer control. We developed the Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation model (PATCAM) to answer them, including the impact of overdiagnosis on thyroid cancer incidence.

METHODS

PATCAM simulates individuals from age 15 until death in birth cohorts starting from 1975 using 4 inter-related components, including natural history, detection, post-diagnosis, and other-cause mortality. PATCAM was built using high-quality data and calibrated against observed age-, sex-, and stage-specific incidence in the United States as reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. PATCAM was validated against US thyroid cancer mortality and 3 active surveillance studies, including the largest and longest running thyroid cancer active surveillance cohort in the world (from Japan) and 2 from the United States.

RESULTS

PATCAM successfully replicated age- and stage-specific papillary thyroid cancers (PTC) incidence and mean tumor size at diagnosis and PTC mortality in the United States between 1975 and 2015. PATCAM accurately predicted the proportion of tumors that grew more than 3 mm and 5 mm in 5 years and 10 years, aligning with the 95% confidence intervals of the reported rates from active surveillance studies in most cases.

CONCLUSIONS

PATCAM successfully reproduced observed US thyroid cancer incidence and mortality over time and was externally validated. PATCAM can be used to identify factors that influence the detection of subclinical PTCs.

PREF-NET: a patient preference and experience study of lanreotide autogel administered in the home versus hospital setting among patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours in the UK

PURPOSE

PREF-NET reported patients' experience of Somatuline® (lanreotide) Autogel® (LAN) administration at home and in hospital among patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP-NETs).

METHODS

PREF-NET was a multicentre, cross-sectional study of UK adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with GEP-NETs receiving a stable dose of LAN, which comprised of (1) a quantitative online survey, and (2) qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with a subgroup of survey respondents. The primary objective was the description of overall patient preference for home versus hospital administration of LAN. Secondary objectives included describing patient-reported opinions on the experience and associated preference for each administration setting, and the impact on healthcare utilisation, societal cost, activities of daily living and health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

RESULTS

In the primary analysis (80 patients; mean age 63.9 years), 98.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 96.1-100.0) of patients preferred to receive LAN at home, compared with 1.3% (95% CI: 0.0-3.9) who preferred the hospital setting. Among participants, over half (60.3%) received their injection from a non-healthcare professional. Most patients (79.5% [95% CI: 70.5-88.4]) reported a positive effect on HRQoL after the switch from hospital to home administration. Qualitative interviews (20 patients; mean age 63.6 years) highlighted that patients preferred home administration because it improved overall convenience; saved time and costs; made them feel more comfortable and relaxed, and less stressed; and increased confidence in their ability to self-manage their treatment.

CONCLUSION

Almost all patients preferred to receive LAN treatment at home rather than in hospital with increased convenience and psychological benefits reported as key reasons for this preference.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

METHODS

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

A New Personalized Oral Cancer Survival Calculator to Estimate Risk of Death From Both Oral Cancer and Other Causes

Importance

Standard cancer prognosis models typically do not include much specificity in characterizing competing illnesses or general health status when providing prognosis estimates, limiting their utility for individuals, who must consider their cancer in the context of their overall health. This is especially true for patients with oral cancer, who frequently have competing illnesses.

Objective

To describe a statistical framework and accompanying new publicly available calculator that provides personalized estimates of the probability of a patient surviving or dying from cancer or other causes, using oral cancer as the first data set.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The models used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registry (2000 to 2011), SEER-Medicare linked files, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) (1986 to 2009). Statistical methods developed to calculate natural life expectancy in the absence of the cancer, cancer-specific survival, and other-cause survival were applied to oral cancer data and internally validated with 10-fold cross-validation. Eligible participants were aged between 20 and 94 years with oral squamous cell carcinoma.

Exposures

Histologically confirmed oral cancer, general health status, smoking, and selected serious comorbid conditions.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Probabilities of surviving or dying from the cancer or from other causes, and life expectancy in the absence of the cancer.

Results

A total of 22 392 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (13 544 male [60.5%]; 1476 Asian and Pacific Islander [6.7%]; 1792 Black [8.0%], 1589 Hispanic [7.2%], 17 300 White [78.1%]) and 402 626 NHIS interviewees were included in this calculator designed for public use for patients ages 20 to 86 years with newly diagnosed oral cancer to obtain estimates of health status-adjusted age, life expectancy in the absence of the cancer, and the probability of surviving, dying from the cancer, or dying from other causes within 1 to 10 years after diagnosis. The models in the calculator estimated that patients with oral cancer have a higher risk of death from other causes than their matched US population, and that this risk increases by stage.

Conclusions and relevance

The models developed for the calculator demonstrate that survival estimates that exclude the effects of coexisting conditions can lead to underestimates or overestimates of survival. This new calculator approach will be broadly applicable for developing future prognostic models of cancer and noncancer aspects of a person's health in other cancers; as registries develop more linkages, available covariates will become broader, strengthening future tools.

Key Points for Clinicians About the SEER Oral Cancer Survival Calculator

Importance

In the setting of a new cancer diagnosis, the focus is usually on the cancer as the main threat to survival, but people may have other conditions that pose an equal or greater threat to their life than their cancer: a competing risk of death. This is especially true for patients who have cancer of the oral cavity, because prolonged exposure to alcohol and tobacco are risk factors for cancer in this location but also can result in medical conditions with the potential to shorten life expectancy, competing as a cause of death that may intervene in conjunction with or before the cancer.

Observations

A calculator designed for public use has been released that allows patients age 20 to 86 years who have a newly diagnosed oral cancer to obtain estimates of their health status-adjusted age, life expectancy in the absence of the cancer, and probability of surviving, dying of the cancer, or dying of other causes within 1 to 10 years after diagnosis. The models in the calculator showed that patients with oral cavity cancer had a higher than average risk of death from other causes than the matched US population, and this risk increases by stage.

Conclusions and Relevance

The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program Oral Cancer Survival Calculator supports a holistic approach to the life of the patient, and the risk of death of other causes is treated equally to consideration of the probability of death of the cancer. This tool may be usefully paired with the other available prognostic calculators for oral cancer and is an example of the possibilities now available with registry linkages to partially overlapping or independent data sets and statistical techniques that allow the use of 2 time scales in 1 analysis.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans

Background

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

Results

Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

Conclusions

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Excess Mortality Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health System Compared With the Overall US Population During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a substantial increase in the rate of death in the United States. It is unclear whether those who had access to comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system had different death rates compared with the overall US population.

Objective

To quantify and compare the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic between individuals who received comprehensive medical care through the VA health care system and those in the general US population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study compared 10.9 million enrollees in the VA, including 6.8 million active users of VA health care (those with a visit in the last 2 years), with the general population of the US, with deaths occurring from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted from May 17, 2021, to March 15, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared with previous years. Changes in all-cause death rates by quarter were stratified by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Multilevel regression models were fit in a bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations.

Results

There were 10.9 million enrollees in the VA health care system and 6.8 million active users. The demographic characteristics of the VA populations were predominantly male (>85% in the VA health care system vs 49% in the general US population), older (mean [SD], 61.0 [18.2] years in the VA health care system vs 39.0 [23.1] years in the US population), and had a larger proportion of patients who were White (73% in the VA health care system vs 61% in the US population) or Black (17% in the VA health care system vs 13% in the US population). Increases in death rates were apparent across all of the adult age groups (≥25 years) in both the VA populations and the general US population. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates compared with expected values was similar for VA enrollees (risk ratio [RR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]), VA active users (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]), and the general US population (RR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]). Because the prepandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, a comparison of excess deaths between populations suggests that active users of the VA health system had similar relative increases in mortality compared with the general US population during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emerging Imaging Technologies for Parathyroid Gland Identification and Vascular Assessment in Thyroid Surgery: A Review From the American Head and Neck Society Endocrine Surgery Section

Importance

Identification and preservation of parathyroid glands (PGs) remain challenging despite advances in surgical techniques. Considerable morbidity and even mortality result from hypoparathyroidism caused by devascularization or inadvertent removal of PGs. Emerging imaging technologies hold promise to improve identification and preservation of PGs during thyroid surgery.

Observation

This narrative review (1) comprehensively reviews PG identification and vascular assessment using near-infrared autofluorescence (NIRAF)-both label free and in combination with indocyanine green-based on a comprehensive literature review and (2) offers a manual for possible implementation these emerging technologies in thyroid surgery.

Conclusions and Relevance

Emerging technologies hold promise to improve PG identification and preservation during thyroidectomy. Future research should address variables affecting the degree of fluorescence in NIRAF, standardization of signal quantification, definitions and standardization of parameters of indocyanine green injection that correlate with postoperative PG function, the financial effect of these emerging technologies on near-term and longer-term costs, the adoption learning curve and effect on surgical training, and long-term outcomes of key quality metrics in adequately powered randomized clinical trials evaluating PG preservation.

Analysis of Unmet Information Needs Among Patients With Thyroid Cancer

Importance

Counseling prior to thyroid cancer (TC) treatment is an essential component of informed consent. An informed patient affects treatment-related expectations and patient engagement, factors that contribute significantly to patient-reported quality-of-life outcomes.

Objective

To describe experiences with pretreatment counseling among survivors of TC and to test factors associated with self-reported treatment meeting expectations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cross-sectional survey was administered between October 18, 2019, and February 8, 2020, to members of ThyCa: Thyroid Cancer Survivors' Association Inc, and to individuals accessing the public-facing ThyCa website. Survey respondents were asked 55 questions, including 4 free-text questions and 2 multiple-choice questions about pretreatment counseling.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Respondents self-reported (1) their unmet information needs, (2) rates of treatment meeting expectations, and (3) rates of treatment understanding. A mixed-methods analysis was performed, including qualitative content analysis of free-text responses and multivariable logistic regression of factors associated with self-reported levels of treatment meeting expectations.

Results

Of the 1412 survey respondents, 1249 were women (88.4%). The median age at diagnosis was 48 years (range, 18-85 years), and the median age at the time of survey completion was 60 years (range, 18-87 years). A total of 1259 respondents (89.2%) provided free-text responses to the question, "What would you tell someone newly diagnosed with your same condition?" Of these individuals, 526 (37.2%) reported inadequate pretreatment plan understanding and 578 (40.9%) reported that their treatment experience did not meet their expectations. Treatment met expectations for only 95 respondents (18.1%) reporting an inadequate pretreatment plan understanding. Of the 526 survivors of TC reporting a lack of understanding, 473 (90.0%) provided additional textual comments, most commonly in the categories of postoperative treatment, surveillance, and treatment effects. On multivariable logistic regression, self-reported failure to have an understanding of TC treatment was independently associated with failure of treatment to meet expectations (odds ratio, 5.1 [95% CI, 3.7-6.9]). Patients reporting a full understanding of their treatment plan were 5-fold more likely to indicate that their initial treatment experience was on par with expectations, independent of reported postoperative complications, age, sex, and other potential confounders.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this survey study, a substantial proportion of survivors of TC reported inadequate pretreatment understanding. This gap in understanding was associated with high levels of self-reported failure of treatment to meet expectations, which in turn is associated in other studies with poorer patient-reported quality-of-life outcomes. These outcomes may be improved by addressing gaps in patient understanding so expectations more closely match TC diagnosis and treatment pathways.

Response to Toshihide Tsuda, Yumiko Miyano and Eiji Yamamoto [1]

BACKGROUND

Using a toolkit approach, Tsuda et al. critiqued work carried out by or in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), including the IARC technical publication No. 46 on "Thyroid health monitoring after nuclear accidents" (TM-NUC), the project on nuclear emergency situations and improvement on medical and health surveillance (SHAMISEN), and the IARC-led work on global thyroid cancer incidence patterns as per IARC core mandate.

MAIN BODY

We respond on the criticism of the recommendations of the IARC technical publication No. 46, and of global thyroid cancer incidence evaluation.

CONCLUSION

After nuclear accidents, overdiagnosis can still happen and must be included in informed decision making when providing a system of optimal help for cases of radiation-induced thyroid cancer, to minimize harm to people by helping them avoid diagnostics and treatment they may not need.

Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Larynx Cancer in the US

Importance

Larynx cancer is associated with considerable morbidity for patients and has a high mortality rate. Historical analyses showed that the incidence of larynx cancer was decreasing but the mortality was not similarly improving.

Objective

To assess whether incidence and mortality trends in larynx cancer in the US have improved.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used population-based data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database for patients older than 18 years who were diagnosed with laryngeal cancer between January 1, 1986, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from May 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were incidence and mortality of larynx cancer by sex, subsite, and patterns of surgical treatment.

Results

Among 40 850 US patients with larynx cancer diagnosed from 1986 to 2018 (80.4% male), the incidence of larynx cancer decreased 55% from 5.00 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 4.70-5.32 per 100 000 people) to 2.26 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 2.11-2.42 per 100 000 people). During the same period, mortality decreased only 43% from 1.59 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 1.53-1.64 per 100 000 people) to 0.89 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 0.86-0.92 per 100 000 people). This corresponds to a 25% relative increase in case-fatality rate. Examination by stage showed a decrease in the incidence of localized disease at diagnosis of 40% from 2.65 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 2.44-2.89 per 100 000 people) to 1.60 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 1.45-1.76 per 100 000 people) from 1986 to 2002 and of 45% from 2.15 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 1.98-2.34 per 100 000 people) to 1.19 per 100 000 people (95% CI, 1.08-1.31 per 100 000 people) from 2005 to 2018. Distribution of larynx cancer by subsite remained stable, with most cases affecting the glottis. The proportion of patients receiving surgery as their first course of treatment decreased regardless of stage at presentation.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, between 1986 and 2018, the incidence of larynx cancer decreased in the US, primarily because of the decrease in the incidence of localized disease. Mortality did not decrease similarly, resulting in an increased case-fatality rate overall. Encouraging earlier referrals for cancer concern, focusing resources where larynx cancer rates remain highest, renewing attention to research on new biologic causes of different tumor biologic characteristics, and conducting trials to directly compare treatments may help reverse this trend.

Multiple sclerosis and COVID-19: Assessing risk perception, patient behaviors and access to disease-modifying therapies

BACKGROUND

Following the outbreak of COVID-19, global healthcare systems have had to rapidly adapt. People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) were required to make decisions about their individual risk and consequent work and social behaviors. This study aimed to evaluate risk perception and patterns of shielding behavior amongst pwMS at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent impact on patients' employment and access to disease modifying therapies (DMTs).

METHODS

Postal surveys were sent to 1690 people within a UK population-based MS cohort during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients were surveyed on: (i) perceived vulnerability to COVID-19; (ii) isolation behavior; (iii) interruption to DMT; (iv) employment status; (v) level of satisfaction with their current working arrangement.

RESULTS

Responses were received from 1000 pwMS. Two thirds of patients reported isolating at home during the first wave of the pandemic. This behavior was associated with increased age (p<0.0001), higher disability (p<0.0001) and use of high-efficacy DMTs (p = 0.02). The majority of patients reported feeling vulnerable (82%) with perceived vulnerability associated with higher EDSS (p<0.0001) and receiving a high-efficacy DMT (p = 0.04). Clinician-defined risk was associated with shielding behavior, with those at high-risk more likely to self-isolate/shield (p<0.0001). Patients on high-efficacy DMTs were more likely to have an interruption to their treatment (50%) during the first wave of the pandemic. Most pwMS experienced a change to their working environment, and most were satisfied with the adjustments.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the risk perception, social behavioral practices and changes to treatment experienced by pwMS during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in a large, well-described UK cohort. The results may help inform management of pwMS during future pandemic waves.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of a lipid clinic in identifying people with familial hypercholesterolaemia and reducing their risk of cardiovascular disease

Introduction

The NHS Long Term Plan aims to ‘prevent up to 150,000 heart attacks, strokes and dementia cases over the next 10 years’.1 People with Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH) are considered to be at high-risk of heart attack, stroke and dementia but an estimated 90% remain undiagnosed.1 The Chesterfield and Dronfield Primary Care Network were commissioned to set-up a 12-month pharmacist-led clinic across 9 practices to identify, treat and refer FH patients. Patients with suspected FH benefit from referral to specialist services.2

Aim

This study aimed to evaluate the number of FH patients identified and any unintended benefits of the Lipid Clinic.

Methods

Ethical approval was not required for this service evaluation. Informed consent was sought prior to data collection and the dataset was anonymised. Searches of practice patient records identified patients with a previously raised lipid level (total Cholesterol &gt;7.5mmol/L and/or non-HDL-C &gt; 5.9mmol/L)2 for review in the Lipid Clinic. Patients reviewed in the Lipid Clinic were initiated/optimised on lipid lowering medication as appropriate.2 Data were collected for patients invited for review in the Lipid Clinic between May-July 2022. Patients’ attendance as well as decline/non-response to the Clinic was recorded. The data collected included family history, QRISK score (where applicable), lipid lowering treatment the patient was taking (if any) and blood tests results (serum lipids, HBA1c and thyroid function tests). If bloods were deranged it was documented whether or not it was a new finding. The data was analysed by categorising patients into potential FH, primary/secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and whether they needed referral to secondary care.

Results

Out of the 260 patients invited for review, 219 attended the clinic. Of these, 30 (13.7%) were provided with lifestyle advice as they did not meet the criteria for treatment. Twenty-three patients (10.5%) met the Simon-Broom criteria for possible FH. A further 3 patients identified were known to have FH but had not undergone genetic cascade testing. These 26 patients (11.8%) were referred to secondary care for genetic testing and specialist input. Newly raised HbA1c indicative of either diabetes or non-diabetic hyperglycaemia was incidentally found in 39 patients (17.8%). Lipid-lowering medication was initiated/titrated in 189 patients (86.3%).

Discussion/Conclusion

The significant proportion of patients requiring follow up in secondary care (11.8%) suggesting targeted searches are effective in identifying patients with possible FH. Identifying FH patients, testing and treating their family members appropriately reduces their risk of cardiovascular events.2 The Lipid Clinic has identifying that nearly a fifth of patients were previously undiagnosed with either diabetes or non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (17.8%) suggests that this is also an opportunity to identify and treat these patients earlier than they would otherwise have been identified. The results highlight the need for primary care staff education on the new AAC NHS Guidelines2 relating to managing lipid results. One limitation of the study is although the Lipid Clinic has received good informal feedback, formal feedback is yet to be collected from patients and stake holders. In addition, the clinic is still ongoing, and more data is being collected.

References

1. NHS Long Term Plan. Chapter 3: Further progress on care quality and outcomes. Better care for major health conditions. Cardiovascular Disease. 2019. Available from: https://www.longtermplan.nhs.uk/online-version/chapter-3-further-progress-on-care-quality-and-outcomes/better-care-for-major-health-conditions/cardiovascular-disease/

2. Khatib R, Neely D, on behalf of the AAC Clinical Subgroup. Summary of National Guidance for Lipid Management for Primary and Secondary Prevention of CVD, AAC NHS Guidelines, Nov 2021. Review date: Nov 2022. NICE endorsed Dec 2021.

3. National Institution for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification, Clinical guideline [CG181] Published: 18 July 2014 Last updated: 27 September 2016.

Women and thyroid cancer incidence: overdiagnosis versus biological risk

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Our aim is to discuss the concepts of sex and gender in the context of thyroid cancer epidemiology.

RECENT FINDINGS

It has been long-established in global epidemiologic data that thyroid cancer incidence rates are higher in women than men. However, what has been less well understood is whether this reflects sex disparities in cancer susceptibility, gender disparities in detection, or a combination. A recent meta-analysis of autopsy data from individuals who were not known to have thyroid cancer in their lifetime demonstrated no difference in the prevalence of thyroid cancer in women and men, suggesting that gender differences may be the reason for gender-based differences in thyroid cancer detection. This finding, and sex differences in auto immunity and other factors that may affect cancer susceptibility are explored.

SUMMARY

Additional research to explore gender- and sex-specific data on thyroid cancer would inform our understanding of the differences and similarities between men and women in susceptibility and detection of thyroid cancer and help to optimize disease management for all genders and both sexes.

Prevalence of Subclinical Papillary Thyroid Cancer by Age: Meta-analysis of Autopsy Studies

CONTEXT

It is not known how underlying subclinical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) differs by age. This meta-analysis of autopsy studies investigates how subclinical PTC prevalence changes over the lifetime.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to May 2021 for studies that reported the prevalence of PTC found at autopsy. Two investigators extracted the number of subclinical PTCs detected in selected age groups and extent of examination. A quality assessment tool was used to assess bias. Logistic regression models with random intercepts were used to pool the age-specific subclinical PTC prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

Of 1773 studies screened, 16 studies with age-specific data met the inclusion criteria (n = 6286 autopsies). The pooled subclinical PTC prevalence was 12.9% (95% CI 7.8-16.8) in whole gland and 4.6% (2.5- 6.6) in partial gland examination. Age-specific prevalence estimates were ≤40 years, 11.5% (6.8-16.1); 41-60 years, 12.1% (7.6-16.5); 61-80 years, 12.7% (8-17.5); and 81+ years, 13.4% (7.9-18.9). Sex did not affect age-specific prevalence and there was no difference in prevalence between men and women in any age group. In the regression model, the OR of prevalence increasing by age group was 1.06 (0.92-1.2, P = .37).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis shows the prevalence of subclinical PTC is stable across the lifespan. There is not a higher subclinical PTC prevalence in middle age, in contrast to higher observed incidence rates in this age group. These findings offer unique insights into the prevalence of subclinical PTC and its relationship to age.

Incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery according to suture technique: Hughes Abdominal Repair Randomized Trial (HART)

BACKGROUND

Incisional hernias cause morbidity and may require further surgery. HART (Hughes Abdominal Repair Trial) assessed the effect of an alternative suture method on the incidence of incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

A pragmatic multicentre single-blind RCT allocated patients undergoing midline incision for colorectal cancer to either Hughes closure (double far-near-near-far sutures of 1 nylon suture at 2-cm intervals along the fascia combined with conventional mass closure) or the surgeon's standard closure. The primary outcome was the incidence of incisional hernia at 1 year assessed by clinical examination. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Between August 2014 and February 2018, 802 patients were randomized to either Hughes closure (401) or the standard mass closure group (401). At 1 year after surgery, 672 patients (83.7 per cent) were included in the primary outcome analysis; 50 of 339 patients (14.8 per cent) in the Hughes group and 57 of 333 (17.1 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.55 to 1.27; P = 0.402). At 2 years, 78 patients (28.7 per cent) in the Hughes repair group and 84 (31.8 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.86, 0.59 to 1.25; P = 0.429). Adverse events were similar in the two groups, apart from the rate of surgical-site infection, which was higher in the Hughes group (13.2 versus 7.7 per cent; OR 1.82, 1.14 to 2.91; P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of incisional hernia after colorectal cancer surgery is high. There was no statistical difference in incidence between Hughes closure and mass closure at 1 or 2 years.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN25616490 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Evaluating the Rising Incidence of Thyroid Cancer and Thyroid Nodule Detection Modes: A Multinational, Multi-institutional Analysis

Importance

There is epidemiologic evidence that the increasing incidence of thyroid cancer is associated with subclinical disease detection. Evidence for a true increase in thyroid cancer incidence has also been identified. However, a true increase in disease would likely be heralded by an increased incidence of thyroid-referable symptoms in patients presenting with disease.

Objectives

To evaluate whether modes of detection (MODs) used to identify thyroid nodules for surgical removal have changed compared with historic data and to determine if MODs vary by geographic location.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective analysis of pathology and medical records of 1328 patients who underwent thyroid-directed surgery in 16 centers in 4 countries: 4 centers in Canada, 1 in Denmark, 1 in South Africa, and 12 in the US. The participants were the first 100 patients (or the largest number available) at each center who had thyroid surgery in 2019. The MOD of the thyroid finding that required surgery was classified using an updated version of a previously validated tool as endocrine condition, symptomatic thyroid, surveillance, or without thyroid-referable symptoms (asymptomatic). If asymptomatic, the MOD was further classified as clinician screening examination, patient-requested screening, radiologic serendipity, or diagnostic cascade.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The MOD of thyroid nodules that were surgically removed, by geographic variation; and the proportion and size of thyroid cancers discovered in patients without thyroid-referable symptoms compared with symptomatic detection. Data analyses were performed from April 2021 to February 2022.

Results

Of the 1328 patients (mean [SD] age, 52 [15] years; 993 [75%] women; race/ethnicity data were not collected) who underwent thyroid surgery that met inclusion criteria, 34% (448) of the surgeries were for patients with thyroid-related symptoms, 41% (542) for thyroid findings discovered without thyroid-referable symptoms, 14% (184) for endocrine conditions, and 12% (154) for nodules with original MOD unknown (under surveillance). Cancer was detected in 613 (46%) patients; of these, 30% (183 patients) were symptomatic and 51% (310 patients) had no thyroid-referable symptoms. The mean (SD) size of the cancers identified in the symptomatic group was 3.2 (2.1) cm (median [range] cm, 2.6 [0.2-10.5]; 95% CI, 2.91-3.52) and in the asymptomatic group, 2.1 (1.4) cm (median [range] cm, 1.7 [0.05-8.8]; 95% CI, 1.92-2.23). The MOD patterns were significantly different among all participating countries.

Conclusions and Relevance

This retrospective analysis found that most thyroid cancers were discovered in patients who had no thyroid-referable symptoms; on average, these cancers were smaller than symptomatic thyroid cancers. Still, some asymptomatic cancers were large, consistent with historic data. The substantial difference in MOD patterns among the 4 countries suggests extensive variations in practice.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Advancing research in adult secure mental health services in England

Forensic mental health services in high income countries are typically high cost and low volume, providing care to people with mental illness, personality disorders, learning disability and autism deemed to pose a risk to others. Research into how forensic mental health services work as a whole system is limited. Such research is urgently needed to guide policy makers and ensure that services operate effectively.

POS0083-PARE DRIVING IMPROVEMENT IN AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS SERVICES: THE USE OF QUALITY IMPROVEMENT APPROACHES AND TOOLS

Background

Quality Improvement (QI) methods have been used in healthcare since the late 1980s across a wide range of healthcare settings. However, in the UK they have not been applied widely within rheumatology including axial Spondyloarthritis (axial SpA). In 2017, the UK healthcare regulator, NICE, produced a national clinical guideline for axial SpA, but there was no mechanism to encourage uptake of its recommendations.

The National Axial Spondyloarthritis Society created a programme to use QI approaches to help encourage uptake of the Guidelines and act as a catalyst for wider improvement in axial SpA care.

Objectives

To encourage service improvement in axial Spondyloarthritis care through the use of quality improvement theory and methods.

Methods

In late 2019 six rheumatology departments were selected to participate in the first cohort. The programme design was underpinned by:

• A framework for management grounded in systems theory1

• A learning system that brings healthcare organisations together2

• A set of tools to develop, test and implement changes: the Model for Improvement3.

The teams met four times for training in QI methods, plus team-based online coaching. They had time to develop their projects and networking opportunities to share their data and experiences of implementation.

We conducted a qualitative review of the programme in year one. We interviewed 31 programme participants and reviewed programme documentation.

Results

The review found that:

•A proven QI framework provides a strong basis to build improvement

•A competitive programme helps foster motivation and accountability

•The programme provides the time to use tools to understand the problem and construct improvement aims

•Measurement is key to understand improvement and to create a story of change

•Collaboration and engagement is key within the team and with other stakeholders.

The teams have:

Conclusion

Despite the challenges of posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, a structured QI programme has enabled clinicians to stay engaged and implement projects to reduce diagnostic delay and improve care.

References

[1]Deming WE. The new economics for industry. Government, Education, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 1993;1:235.

[2]Institute for Healthcare Improvement. The Breakthrough Series: IHI’s Collaborative Model for Achieving Breakthrough Improvement. IHI Innovation Series white paper. Boston: Institute for Healthcare Improvement. 2003.

[3]Langley GJ, Nolan KM, Nolan TW, Norman L, Provost LP. The improvement guide. San Francisco: Jossey–Bass. 1996.

Disclosure of Interests

Dale Webb Grant/research support from: Grant funding from AbbVie, Biogen, Lilly, Janssen, Novartis & UCB, Rosie Barnett: None declared, Lucy Davies: None declared

American Head and Neck Society Endocrine Surgery Section and International Thyroid Oncology Group consensus statement on mutational testing in thyroid cancer: Defining advanced thyroid cancer and its targeted treatment

BACKGROUND

The development of systemic treatment options leveraging the molecular landscape of advanced thyroid cancer is a burgeoning field. This is a multidisciplinary evidence-based statement on the definition of advanced thyroid cancer and its targeted systemic treatment.

METHODS

An expert panel was assembled, a literature review was conducted, and best practice statements were developed. The modified Delphi method was applied to assess the degree of consensus for the statements developed by the author panel.

RESULTS

A review of the current understanding of thyroid oncogenesis at a molecular level is presented and characteristics of advanced thyroid cancer are defined. Twenty statements in topics including the multidisciplinary management, molecular evaluation, and targeted systemic treatment of advanced thyroid cancer are provided.

CONCLUSIONS

With the growth in targeted treatment options for thyroid cancer, a consensus definition of advanced disease and statements regarding the utility of molecular testing and available targeted systemic therapy is warranted.

Development of a new adapted QuinteT Recruitment Intervention (QRI-Two) for rapid application to RCTs underway with enrolment shortfalls—to identify previously hidden barriers and improve recruitment

Background

Many randomised controlled trials (RCTs) struggle to recruit, despite valiant efforts. The QRI (QuinteT Recruitment Intervention) uses innovative research methods to optimise recruitment by revealing previously hidden barriers related to the perceptions and experiences of recruiters and patients, and targeting remedial actions. It was designed to be integrated with RCTs anticipating difficulties at the outset. A new version of the intervention (QRI-Two) was developed for RCTs already underway with enrolment shortfalls.

Methods

QRIs in 12 RCTs with enrolment shortfalls during 2007–2017 were reviewed to document which of the research methods used could be rapidly applied to successfully identify recruitment barriers. These methods were then included in the new streamlined QRI-Two intervention which was applied in 20 RCTs in the USA and Europe during 2018–2019. The feasibility of the QRI-Two was investigated, recruitment barriers and proposed remedial actions were documented, and the QRI-Two protocol was finalised.

Results

The review of QRIs from 2007 to 2017 showed that previously unrecognised recruitment barriers could be identified but data collection for the full QRI required time and resources usually unavailable to ongoing RCTs. The streamlined QRI-Two focussed on analysis of screening/accrual data and RCT documents (protocol, patient-information), with discussion of newly diagnosed barriers and potential remedial actions in a workshop with the RCT team. Four RCTs confirmed the feasibility of the rapid application of the QRI-Two. When the QRI-Two was applied to 14 RCTs underway with enrolment shortfalls, an array of previously unknown/underestimated recruitment barriers related to issues such as equipoise, intervention preferences, or study presentation was identified, with new insights into losses of eligible patients along the recruitment pathway. The QRI-Two workshop enabled discussion of the newly diagnosed barriers and potential remedial actions to improve recruitment in collaboration with the RCT team. As expected, the QRI-Two performed less well in six RCTs at the start-up stage before commencing enrolment.

Conclusions

The QRI-Two can be applied rapidly, diagnose previously unrecognised recruitment barriers, and suggest remedial actions in RCTs underway with enrolment shortfalls, providing opportunities for RCT teams to develop targeted actions to improve recruitment. The effectiveness of the QRI-Two in improving recruitment requires further evaluation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06187-y.

What's in a Name? A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Noninvasive Follicular Thyroid Neoplasm with Papillary-Like Nuclear Features' Nomenclature Revision

Background: The noninvasive subtype of encapsulated follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (eFVPTC) has been reclassified as noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) in 2016 to reflect the indolent behavior and favorable prognosis of this type of tumor. This terminology change has also de-escalated its management approach from cancer treatment to a more conservative treatment strategy befitting a benign thyroid neoplasm. Objective: To characterize the reduced health care costs and improved quality of life (QOL) from management of NIFTP as a nonmalignant tumor compared with the previous management as eFVPTC. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by creating Markov models to simulate two management strategies for NIFTP: (i) de-escalated management of the tumor as NIFTP involving lobectomy with reduced follow-up, (ii) management of the tumor as eFVPTC involving completion thyroidectomy/radioactive iodine ablation for some patients, and follow-up recommended for carcinoma. The model was simulated for 5 and 20 years following diagnosis of NIFTP. Aggregate costs and quality-life years were measured. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed for all variables. Results: Over a five-year simulation period, de-escalated management of NIFTP had a total cost of $12,380.99 per patient while the more aggressive management of the tumor as eFVPTC had a total cost of $16,264.03 per patient (saving $3883.05 over five years). Management of NIFTP provided 5.00 quality-adjusted life years, whereas management as eFVPTC provided 4.97 quality-adjusted life years. Sensitivity analyses showed that management of NIFTP always resulted in lower costs and greater quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over the sensitivity ranges for individual variables. De-escalated management for NIFTP is expected to produce ∼$6-42 million in cost savings over a five-year period for these patients, and incremental 54-370 QALYs of increased utility in the United States. Conclusion: The degree of cost savings and improved patient utility of de-escalated NIFTP management compared with traditional management was estimated to be $3883.05 and 0.03 QALYs per patient. We demonstrate that these findings persisted in sensitivity analysis to account for variability in recurrence rate, surveillance approaches, and other model inputs. These findings allow for greater understanding of the economic and QOL impact of the NIFTP reclassification.

Radiofrequency ablation and related ultrasound-guided ablation technologies for treatment of benign and malignant thyroid disease: An international multidisciplinary consensus statement of the American Head and Neck Society Endocrine Surgery Section with the Asia Pacific Society of Thyroid Surgery, Associazione Medici Endocrinologi, British Association of Endocrine and Thyroid Surgeons, European Thyroid Association, Italian Society of Endocrine Surgery Units, Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology, Latin American Thyroid Society, and Thyroid Nodules Therapies Association

BACKGROUND

The use of ultrasound-guided ablation procedures to treat both benign and malignant thyroid conditions is gaining increasing interest. This document has been developed as an international interdisciplinary evidence-based statement with a primary focus on radiofrequency ablation and is intended to serve as a manual for best practice application of ablation technologies.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature review was conducted to guide statement development and generation of best practice recommendations. Modified Delphi method was applied to assess whether statements met consensus among the entire author panel.

RESULTS

A review of the current state of ultrasound-guided ablation procedures for the treatment of benign and malignant thyroid conditions is presented. Eighteen best practice recommendations in topic areas of preprocedural evaluation, technique, postprocedural management, efficacy, potential complications, and implementation are provided.

CONCLUSIONS

As ultrasound-guided ablation procedures are increasingly utilized in benign and malignant thyroid disease, evidence-based and thoughtful application of best practices is warranted.

Trends in Diagnosis of Noninvasive Follicular Thyroid Neoplasm With Papillarylike Nuclear Features and Total Thyroidectomies for Patients With Papillary Thyroid Neoplasms

Importance

Increasing detection of early-stage papillary thyroid neoplasms without improvements in mortality has prompted development of strategies to prevent or mitigate overtreatment.

Objective

To determine adoption rates of 2 recent strategies developed to limit overtreatment of low-risk thyroid cancers: (1) a new classification, noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillarylike nuclear features (NIFTP), and (2) hemithyroidectomy for selected papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) up to 4 cm in size.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a cross-sectional analysis of 3368 pathology records of 2 cohorts of patients from 18 hospitals in 6 countries during 2 time periods (2015 and 2019). Participating hospitals were included from the US (n = 12), Canada (n = 2), Denmark (n = 1), South Korea (n = 1), South Africa (n = 1), and India (n = 1). The records of the first 100 patients per institution for each year who underwent thyroid-directed surgery (hemithyroidectomy, total thyroidectomy, or completion thyroidectomy) were reviewed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Frequency of diagnosis of NIFTP, PTCs, and thyroidectomies during the study period.

Results

Of the 790 papillary thyroid neoplasms captured in the 2019 cohort, 38 (4.8%) were diagnosed as NIFTP. Diagnosis of NIFTP was observed in the US, South Africa, and India. There was minimal difference in the total proportion of PTCs in the 2015 cohort compared with the 2019 cohort (778 [47.1%] vs 752 [44.5%]; difference, 2.6% [95% CI, -16.9% to 22.1%]). The proportion of PTCs eligible for hemithyroidectomy but treated with total thyroidectomy in the 2 cohorts demonstrated a decreasing trend from 2015 to 2019 (341 of 453 [75.3%] vs 253 of 434 [58.3%]; difference, 17.0% [95% CI, -1.2% to 35.2%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this cohort study showed that the 2 mitigation strategies for preventing overtreatment of early-stage thyroid cancer have had mixed success. The diagnosis of NIFTP has only been applied to a small proportion of thyroid neoplasms compared with expected rates. However, more patients eligible for hemithyroidectomy received it in 2019 compared with 2015, showing some success with this deescalation strategy.

Evaluation of Gender Inequity in Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis: Differences by Sex in US Thyroid Cancer Incidence Compared With a Meta-analysis of Subclinical Thyroid Cancer Rates at Autopsy

IMPORTANCE

Thyroid cancer is more common in women than in men, but the associated causes of these differences are not fully understood.

OBJECTIVE

To compare sex-specific thyroid cancer rates in the US to the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer at autopsy.

DATA SOURCES

Data on thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by sex among US adults (≥18 years) were extracted from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) data for 1975 to 2017. Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science databases were searched for studies on the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer at autopsy of men and women, from inception to May 31, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was used to perform a systematic search for articles reporting the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer in autopsy results of both women and men. Of 101 studies identified, 8 studies containing 12 data sets met inclusion criteria; ie, they examined the whole thyroid gland, stated the number of thyroids examined, and reported results by sex. Excluded studies reported thyroid cancer in Japan after the atomic bombs or Chernobyl after the nuclear disaster; did not examine the whole thyroid gland or had incomplete information on thyroid examination methods; or did not report rates by sex.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Thyroid cancer incidence and mortality data by sex, histologic type, and tumor size were extracted from SEER. The inverse variance heterogeneity model was used to meta-analyze the prevalence and the odds ratio of subclinical thyroid cancer by sex from 8 studies (12 data sets) on thyroid cancer prevalence in autopsy results.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer, by histologic type and tumor size; prevalence of thyroid cancer in autopsy results.

RESULTS

In 2017, 90% of thyroid cancers diagnosed were papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and in 2013 to 2017, the women to men incidence ratio for small (≤2 cm) PTC was 4.39:1. The incidence ratio approached 1:1 as cancer type lethality increased. The ratio of thyroid cancer mortality by gender was 1.02:1 and remained stable from 1992 to 2017. Results of the meta-analysis showed that the pooled autopsy prevalence of subclinical PTC was 14% in women (95% CI, 8%-20%) and 11% in men (95% CI, 5%-18%). The pooled odds ratio of subclinical PTC in women compared with men was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study and meta-analysis found that the belief that women get thyroid cancer more often than men is an oversimplification. The gender disparity is mostly confined to the detection of small subclinical PTCs, which are equally common in both sexes at autopsy but identified during life much more often in women than men. As the lethality of the cancer type increases, the ratio of detection by gender approaches 1:1. This phenomenon may be associated with gender differences in health care utilization and patterns of clinical thinking and can harm both women, who are subject to overdetection, and men, who may be at risk of underdetection.

Using molecular testing to improve the management of thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology: an institutional experience with review of molecular alterations

INTRODUCTION

Molecular testing has helped clinicians and cytopathologists to further categorize indeterminate thyroid fine needle aspiration (FNA) specimens. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of commercially available molecular tests, review their effects on patient treatment, and correlate the molecular alterations with the histologic findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A pathology laboratory information system search identified thyroid FNAs performed at our institution between January 1, 2015 and June 30, 2020. The results of surgical follow-up and ancillary molecular testing were collected. We evaluated the accuracy of these tests and whether they could reduce the number of surgeries performed.

RESULTS

Our laboratory information system search identified 510 cases reported as atypia of undetermined significance, 94 as suspicious for follicular neoplasm, and 44 as suspicious for follicular neoplasm, Hurthle cell type. Of the specimens, 343 had no ancillary molecular testing, 146 were sent for ThyGenX/ThyraMIR, and 136 were sent for ThyroSeq. Of the patients without molecular testing, 50.4% had undergone follow-up surgery compared with 30.8% after ThyGenX/ThyraMIR and 38.2% after ThyroSeq testing, resulting in 38.9% and 24.2% fewer surgeries and an odds ratio of 0.04 (95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.33) and 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.95), respectively. For ThyGenX/ThyraMIR testing, the risk of malignancy for high and moderate to high risk alterations was 80%, 28.6% for moderate and low to moderate risk alterations, and 23.1% for low risk alterations. For ThyroSeq, the risk of malignancy was 87.5% for high risk alterations, 36.8% for intermediate to high risk alterations, 27.3% for intermediate risk alterations, and 0% for low risk alterations. The areas under the curve for ThyGenX/ThyraMIR and ThyroSeq testing were 0.65 and 0.85, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that, at our institution, both ThygenX/ThyraMIR and ThyroSeq can be used to effectively stratify cytology specimens based on the risk of malignancy and reduce the number of surgeries performed at our institution.

Different approaches to making and testing change in healthcare

Greg Ogrinc and colleagues call for greater exploitation of the synergies between quality improvement and implementation science in improving care

Perioperative pain management and opioid-reduction in head and neck endocrine surgery: An American Head and Neck Society Endocrine Surgery Section consensus statement

BACKGROUND

This American Head and Neck Society (AHNS) consensus statement focuses on evidence-based comprehensive pain management practices for thyroid and parathyroid surgery. Overutilization of opioids for postoperative pain management is a major contributing factor to the opioid addiction epidemic however evidence-based guidelines for pain management after routine head and neck endocrine procedures are lacking.

METHODS

An expert panel was convened from the membership of the AHNS, its Endocrine Surgical Section, and ThyCa. An extensive literature review was performed, and recommendations addressing several pain management subtopics were constructed based on best available evidence. A modified Delphi survey was then utilized to evaluate group consensus of these statements.

CONCLUSIONS

This expert consensus provides evidence-based recommendations for effective postoperative pain management following head and neck endocrine procedures with a focus on limiting unnecessary use of opioid analgesics.