Prevention of progression to cirrhosis in hepatitis C with fibrosis: effectiveness and cost effectiveness of sequential therapy with new direct-acting anti-virals

BACKGROUND

The new direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection offer higher cure rates, but at a much higher cost than the standard interferon-based treatments.

AIM

To identify the cost-effective treatment for patients with HCV infection with F3 liver fibrosis who are at high risk of progression to cirrhosis.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model compared the health benefits and costs of all currently licensed treatments as single treatments and in sequential therapy of up to three lines. Costs were expressed in pound sterling from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Health benefits were expressed in quality-adjusted life years.

RESULTS

Treatment before progression to cirrhosis always offers the most health benefits for the least costs. Sequential therapy with multiple treatment lines cures over 89% of patients across all HCV genotypes while ensuring a cost-effective use of resources. Cost-effective regimes for HCV genotype 1 patients include first-line oral therapy with sofosbuvir-ledipasvir while peginterferon continues to have a role in other genotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effective treatment for HCV can be established using decision analytic modelling comparing single and sequential therapies. Sequential therapy with DAAs is effective and cost-effective in HCV patients with F3 fibrosis. This information is of significant benefit to health care providers with budget limitations and provides a sound scientific basis for drug treatment choices.

Cost-effectiveness of integrated collaborative care for comorbid major depression in patients with cancer

OBJECTIVES

Comorbid major depression is associated with reduced quality of life and greater use of healthcare resources. A recent randomised trial (SMaRT, Symptom Management Research Trials, Oncology-2) found that a collaborative care treatment programme (Depression Care for People with Cancer, DCPC) was highly effective in treating depression in patients with cancer. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of DCPC compared with usual care from a health service perspective.

METHODS

Costs were estimated using UK national unit cost estimates and health outcomes measured using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness of DCPC compared with usual care was calculated and scenario analyses performed to test alternative assumptions on costs and missing data. Uncertainty was characterised using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The probability of DCPC being cost-effective was determined using the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) cost-effectiveness threshold range of £ 20,000 to £ 30,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

DCPC cost on average £ 631 more than usual care per patient, and resulted in a mean gain of 0.066 QALYs, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £ 9549 per QALY. The probability of DCPC being cost-effective was 0.9 or greater at cost-effectiveness thresholds above £ 20,000 per QALY for the base case and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with usual care, DCPC is likely to be cost-effective at the current thresholds used by NICE. This study adds to the weight of evidence that collaborative care treatment models are cost-effective for depression, and provides new evidence regarding their use in specialist medical settings.

Individual patient data network meta-analysis of mortality effects of implantable cardiac devices

OBJECTIVE

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD), cardiac resynchronisation therapy pacemakers (CRT-P) and the combination therapy (CRT-D) have been shown to reduce all-cause mortality compared with medical therapy alone in patients with heart failure and reduced EF. Our aim was to synthesise data from major randomised controlled trials to estimate the comparative mortality effects of these devices and how these vary according to patients' characteristics.

METHODS

Data from 13 randomised trials (12 638 patients) were provided by medical technology companies. Individual patient data were synthesised using network meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Unadjusted analyses found CRT-D to be the most effective treatment (reduction in rate of death vs medical therapy: 42% (95% credible interval: 32-50%), followed by ICD (29% (20-37%)) and CRT-P (28% (15-40%)). CRT-D reduced mortality compared with CRT-P (19% (1-33%)) and ICD (18% (7-28%)). QRS duration, left bundle branch block (LBBB) morphology, age and gender were included as predictors of benefit in the final adjusted model. In this model, CRT-D reduced mortality in all subgroups (range: 53% (34-66%) to 28% (-1% to 49%)). Patients with QRS duration ≥150 ms, LBBB morphology and female gender benefited more from CRT-P and CRT-D. Men and those <60 years benefited more from ICD.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide estimates for the mortality benefits of device therapy conditional upon multiple patient characteristics. They can be used to estimate an individual patient's expected relative benefit and thus inform shared decision making. Clinical guidelines should discuss age and gender as predictors of device benefits.

What is the quality of economic evaluations of non-drug therapies? A systematic review and critical appraisal of economic evaluations of radiotherapy for cancer

BACKGROUND

Breast, cervical and colorectal cancers are the three most frequent cancers in women, while lung, prostate and colorectal cancers are the most frequent in men. Much attention has been given to the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals for treatment of cancer by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK and similar authorities internationally, while economic analysis developed for other types of anti-cancer interventions, including radiotherapy and surgery, are less common.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to review methods used in published cost-effectiveness studies evaluating radiotherapy for breast, cervical, colorectal, head and neck and prostate cancer, and to compare the economic evaluation methods applied with those defined in the guidelines used by the NICE technology appraisal programme.

METHODS

A systematic search of seven databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CDSR, NHSEED, HTA, DARE, EconLit) as well as research registers, the NICE website and conference proceedings was conducted in July 2012. Only economic evaluations of radiotherapy interventions in individuals diagnosed with cancer that included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) or life-years (LYs) were included. Included studies were appraised on the basis of satisfying essential, preferred and UK-specific methods requirements, building on the NICE Reference Case for economic evaluations and on other methods guidelines.

RESULTS

A total of 29 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria (breast 14, colorectal 2, prostate 10, cervical 0, head and neck 3). Only two studies were conducted in the UK (13 in the USA). Among essential methods criteria, the main issue was that only three (10%) of the studies used clinical-effectiveness estimates identified through systematic review of the literature. Similarly, only eight (28%) studies sourced health-related quality-of-life data directly from patients with the condition of interest. Other essential criteria (e.g. clear description of comparators, patient group indication and appropriate time horizon) were generally fulfilled, while most of the UK-specific requirements were not met.

CONCLUSION

Based on this review there is a dearth of up-to-date, robust evidence on the cost effectiveness of radiotherapy in cancer suitable to support decision making in the UK. Studies selected did not fully satisfy essential method standards currently recommended by NICE.

Cost-effectiveness of combining systematic identification and treatment of co-morbid major depression for people with chronic diseases: the example of cancer

BACKGROUND

Co-morbid major depression occurs in approximately 10% of people suffering from a chronic medical condition such as cancer. Systematic integrated management that includes both identification and treatment has been advocated. However, we lack information on the cost-effectiveness of this combined approach, as published evaluations have focused solely on the systematic (collaborative care) treatment stage. We therefore aimed to use the best available evidence to estimate the cost-effectiveness of systematic integrated management (both identification and treatment) compared with usual practice, for patients attending specialist cancer clinics.

METHOD

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytic model structured to reflect both the identification and treatment processes. Evidence was taken from reviews of relevant clinical trials and from observational studies, together with data from a large depression screening service. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken to determine the effects of variations in depression incidence rates, time horizons and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Systematic integrated depression management generated more costs than usual practice, but also more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £11,765 per QALY. This finding was robust to tests of uncertainty and variation in key model parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic integrated management of co-morbid major depression in cancer patients is likely to be cost-effective at widely accepted threshold values and may be a better way of generating QALYs for cancer patients than some existing medical and surgical treatments. It could usefully be applied to other chronic medical conditions.

The cost effectiveness of ivabradine in the treatment of chronic heart failure from the U.K. National Health Service perspective

Objective

Ivabradine, a specific heart rate lowering therapy, has been shown in a randomised placebo-controlled study, Systolic HF Treatment with the I_f Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHI_fT), to significantly reduce the composite end point of cardiovascular death and hospitalisation for worsening heart failure (HF) in patients with systolic HF who are in sinus rhythm and with a heart rate ≥70 bpm, when added to optimised medical therapy (HR: 0.82, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.90, p<0.0001). We assessed the cost effectiveness of ivabradine, from a UK National Health Service perspective, based on the results of SHI_fT.

Methods

A Markov model estimated the cost effectiveness of ivabradine compared with standard care for two cohorts of patients with HF (heart rate ≥75 bpm in line with the EU labelled indication; and heart rate ≥70 bpm in line with the SHI_fT study population). Modelled outcomes included death, hospitalisation, quality of life and New York Heart Association class. Total costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for ivabradine and standard care were estimated over a lifetime horizon.

Results

The incremental cost per additional QALY for ivabradine plus standard care versus standard care has been estimated as £8498 for heart rate ≥75 bpm and £13 764 for heart rate ≥70 bpm. Ivabradine is expected to have a 95% chance of being cost-effective in the EU licensed population using the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

This economic evaluation suggests that the use of ivabradine is likely to be cost-effective in eligible patients with HF from a UK National Health Service perspective.

Clinical and economic evaluation of laparoscopic surgery compared with medical management for gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: 5-year follow-up of multicentre randomised trial (the REFLUX trial)

BACKGROUND

Despite promising evidence that laparoscopic fundoplication provides better short-term relief of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) than continued medical management, uncertainty remains about whether benefits are sustained and outweigh risks.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long-term clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of laparoscopic surgery among people with GORD requiring long-term medication and suitable for both surgical and medical management.

DESIGN

Five-year follow-up of a randomised trial (with parallel non-randomised preference groups) comparing a laparoscopic surgery-based policy with a continued medical management policy. Cost-effectiveness was assessed alongside the trial using a NHS perspective for costs and expressing health outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

SETTING

Follow-up was by annual postal questionnaire and selective hospital case notes review; initial recruitment in 21 UK hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Questionnaire responders among the 810 original participants. At entry, all had documented evidence of GORD and symptoms for > 12 months. Questionnaire response rates (years 1-5) were from 89.5% to 68.9%.

INTERVENTIONS

Three hundred and fifty-seven participants were recruited to the randomised comparison (178 randomised to surgical management and 179 randomised to continued medical management) and 453 to the preference groups (261 surgical management and 192 medical management). The surgeon chose the type of fundoplication.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: disease-specific outcome measure (the REFLUX questionnaire); secondary: Short Form questionnaire-36 items (SF-36), European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D), NHS resource use, reflux medication, complications.

RESULTS

The randomised groups were well balanced. By 5 years, 63% in the randomised surgical group and 13% in the randomised medical management group had received a total or partial wrap fundoplication (85% and 3% in the preference groups), with few perioperative complications and no associated deaths. At 1 year (and 5 years) after surgery, 36% (41%) in the randomised surgical group - 15% (26%) of those who had surgery - were taking proton pump inhibitor medication compared with 87% (82%) in the randomised medical group. At each year, differences in the REFLUX score significantly favoured the randomised surgical group (a third of a SD; p< 0.01 at 5 years). SF-36 and EQ-5D scores also favoured surgery, but differences attenuated over time and were generally not statistically significant at 5 years. The worse the symptoms at trial entry, the larger the benefit observed after surgery. Those randomised to medical management who subsequently had surgery had low baseline scores that markedly improved after surgery. Following fundoplication, 3% had surgical treatment for a complication and 4% had subsequent reflux-related operations - most often revision of the wrap. Dysphagia, flatulence and inability to vomit were similar in the two randomised groups. The economic analysis indicated that surgery was the more cost-effective option for this patient group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surgery in the base case was £7028 per additional QALY; these findings were robust to changes in approaches and assumptions. The probability of surgery being cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per additional QALY was > 0.80 for all analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

After 5 years, laparoscopic fundoplication continues to provide better relief of GORD symptoms with associated improved health-related quality of life. Complications of surgery were uncommon. Despite being initially more costly, a surgical policy is highly likely to be cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15517081.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 22. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Prasugrel compared to clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutenaous coronary intervention: a Spanish model-based cost effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of 12 months treatment of prasugrel compared to clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the Spanish health care system.

METHODS

A Markov state transition model was developed to estimate health outcomes, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), life years (LY), and costs over patients' lifetimes. Clinical inputs were based on an analysis of the TRITON-TIMI 38 clinical trial. Hospital readmissions captured during the trial in a sub-study of patients from eight countries (and subsequent re-hospitalisations modelled to accrue beyond the time horizon of the trial), were assigned to Spanish diagnosis-related group payment schedules to estimate hospitalisation costs.

RESULTS

Mean total treatment costs were ?11,427 and ?10,910 for prasugrel and clopidogrel respectively. The mean cost of the study drug was ?538 higher for prasugrel vs. clopidogrel, but rehospitalisation costs at 12 months were ?79 lower for prasugrel due to reduced rates of revascularisation. Hospitalisation costs beyond 12 months were higher with prasugrel by ?55, due to longer life expectancy (+0.071 LY and +0.054 QALYs) associated with the decreased nonfatal myocardial infarction rate in the prasugrel group. The incremental cost per life year and QALY gained with prasugrel was ?7,198, and ?9,489, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of ?30,000/QALY gained in the Spanish setting, prasugrel represents a cost-effective option in comparison with clopidogrel among patients with ACS undergoing PCI.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the uterine cervix--DySIS, LuViva Advanced Cervical Scan and Niris Imaging System: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Women in England (aged 25-64 years) are invited for cervical screening every 3-5 years to assess for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or cancer. CIN is a term describing abnormal changes in the cells of the cervix, ranging from CIN1 to CIN3, which is precancerous. Colposcopy is used to visualise the cervix. Three adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the cervix have been included in this assessment: Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS), the LuViva Advanced Cervical Scan and the Niris Imaging System.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the uterine cervix for patients referred for colposcopy through the NHS Cervical Screening Programme.

DATA SOURCES

Sixteen electronic databases [Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), BIOSIS Previews, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database; Inspec, Inside Conferences, MEDLINE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), PASCAL, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) and Science Citation Index (SCI) - Conference Proceedings], and two clinical trial registries [ClinicalTrials.gov and Current Controlled Trials (CCT)] were searched to September-October 2011.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies comparing DySIS, LuViva or Niris with conventional colposcopy were sought; a narrative synthesis was undertaken. A decision-analytic model was developed, which measured outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were evaluated from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services with a time horizon of 50 years.

RESULTS

Six studies were included: two studies of DySIS, one study of LuViva and three studies of Niris. The DySIS studies were well reported and had a low risk of bias; they found higher sensitivity with DySIS (both the DySISmap alone and in combination with colposcopy) than colposcopy alone for identifying CIN2+ disease, although specificity was lower with DySIS. The studies of LuViva and Niris were poorly reported and had limitations, which indicated that their results were subject to a high risk of bias; the results of these studies cannot be considered reliable. The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that both DySIS treatment options are less costly and more effective than colposcopy alone in the overall weighted population; these results were robust to the ranges tested in the sensitivity analysis. DySISmap alone was more costly and more effective in several of the referral groups but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was never higher than £1687 per QALY. DySIS plus colposcopy was less costly and more effective in all reasons for referral. Only indicative analyses were carried out on Niris and LuViva and no conclusions could be made on their cost-effectiveness.

LIMITATIONS

The assessment is limited by the available evidence on the new technologies, natural history of the disease area and current treatment patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

DySIS, particularly in combination with colposcopy, has higher sensitivity than colposcopy alone. There is no reliable evidence on the clinical effectiveness of LuViva and Niris. DySIS plus colposcopy appears to be less costly and more effective than both the DySISmap alone and colposcopy alone; these results were robust to the sensitivity analyses undertaken. Given the lack of reliable evidence on LuViva and Niris, no conclusions on their potential cost-effectiveness can be drawn. There is some uncertainty about how generalisable these findings will be to the population of women referred for colposcopy in the future, owing to the introduction of the human papillomavirus (HPV) triage test and uptake of the HPV vaccine.

EOS 2D/3D X-ray imaging system: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

EOS is a biplane X-ray imaging system manufactured by EOS Imaging (formerly Biospace Med, Paris, France). It uses slot-scanning technology to produce a high-quality image with less irradiation than standard imaging techniques.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EOS two-dimensional (2D)/three-dimensional (3D) X-ray imaging system for the evaluation and monitoring of scoliosis and other relevant orthopaedic conditions.

DATA SOURCES

For the systematic review of EOS, electronic databases (MEDLINE, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database, BIOSIS Previews, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, The Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, Inspec, ISI Science Citation Index and PASCAL), clinical trials registries and the manufacturer's website were searched from 1993 to November 2010.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of studies comparing EOS with standard X-ray [film, computed radiography (CR) or digital radiography] in any orthopaedic condition was performed. A narrative synthesis was undertaken. A decision-analytic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of EOS in the relevant indications compared with standard X-ray and incorporated the clinical effectiveness of EOS and the adverse effects of radiation. The model incorporated a lifetime horizon to estimate outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs from the perspective of the NHS.

RESULTS

Three studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. Two studies compared EOS with film X-ray and one study compared EOS with CR. The three included studies were small and of limited quality. One study used an earlier version of the technology, the Charpak system. Both studies comparing EOS with film X-ray found image quality to be comparable or better with EOS overall. Radiation dose was considerably lower with EOS: ratio of means for posteroanterior spine was 5.2 (13.1 for the study using the Charpak system); ratio of means for the lateral spine was 6.2 (15.1 for the study using the Charpak system). The study comparing EOS with CR found image quality to be comparable or better with EOS. Radiation dose was considerably lower with EOS than CR; ratio of means for the centre of the back was 5.9 and for the proximal lateral point 8.8. The lowest ratio of means was at the nape of the neck, which was 2.9. No other outcomes were assessed in the included studies, such as implications for patient management from the nature and quality of the image. Patient throughput is the major determinant of the cost-effectiveness of EOS. The average cost per procedure of EOS decreases with utilisation. Using estimates of patient throughput at national level from Hospital Episode Statistics data suggests that EOS is not cost-effective for the indications considered. Throughput in the region of 15,100 to 26,500 (corresponding to a workload of 60 to 106 patient appointments per working day) for EOS compared with a throughput of only 7530 for CR (30 patient appointments per working day) is needed to achieve an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £30,000 per QALY. EOS can be shown to be cost-effective only when compared with CR if the utilisation for EOS is about double the utilisation of CR.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitation of the systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of EOS was the limited number and quality of the data available. In particular, there were no studies assessing the potential health benefits arising from the quality and nature of the image, over and above those associated with reduced radiation exposure. Uncertainty in the model inputs was not fully explored owing to a lack of reporting of standard deviations or confidence intervals in the published literature for most of the parameters. As a result, uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results was not presented.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiation dose is considerably lower with EOS than standard X-ray, whereas image quality remains comparable or better with EOS. However, the long-term health benefits from reduced radiation exposure with EOS are very small and there was a lack of data on other potential patient health benefits. The implications of any changes in the quality and nature of the EOS image compared with standard X-ray, for patient health outcomes, needs to be assessed. Given the higher cost of an EOS machine, utilisation is the major determinant of cost-effectiveness. Estimates of patient throughput at national level suggest that EOS is not cost-effective.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the use of golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from a single phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT: GO-REVEAL) that compared golimumab with placebo for treating patients with active and progressive PsA who were symptomatic despite the use of previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The 14-week data showed that, compared with placebo, golimumab 50 mg significantly improved joint disease response as measured by American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 [relative risk (RR) 5.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24 to 10.56] and Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) (RR 3.45, 95% CI 2.49 to 4.87), and skin disease response as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 75 (RR 15.95, 95% CI 4.62 to 59.11). The 24-week absolute data showed that these treatment benefits were maintained. There was a significant improvement in patients' functional status as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) change from baseline at 24 weeks (-0.33, p < 0.001). The open-label extension data showed that these beneficial effects were also maintained at 52 and 104 weeks. However, PASI 50 and PASI 90 at 14 weeks, and all of the PASI outcomes at 24 weeks, were not performed on the basis of intention-to-treat analysis. Furthermore, analyses of the 24-week data were less robust, failing to adjust for treatment contamination due to patient crossover at week 16. The manufacturer conducted a mixed treatment comparison (MTC) analysis. The ERG considered the assumption of exchangeability between the trials for the purpose of the MTC analysis to be acceptable, and the statistical approach in the MTC analysis to be reliable. Regarding the safety evaluation of golimumab, the manufacturer failed to provide longer-term data or to consider adverse event data of golimumab from controlled studies in other conditions, such as rheumatoid arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. Although the adverse effect profile of golimumab appears similar to other anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents, the longer-term safety profile of golimumab remains uncertain. The manufacturer's submission presented a decision model to compare etanercept, infliximab, golimumab and adalimumab versus palliative care for patients with PsA. In the base-case model, 73% of the cohort of patients were assumed to have significant psoriasis (> 3% of body surface area). Estimates of the effectiveness of anti-TNF agents in terms of PsARC, HAQ change and PASI change were obtained from an MTC analysis of RCT data. The manufacturer failed to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) correctly by comparing golimumab with palliative care instead of the most cost-effective alternative (etanercept). Despite the manufacturer's claim that golimumab is a cost-effective treatment option, the manufacturer's own model showed that golimumab is not cost-effective compared with other biologics when the ICERs are correctly calculated. None of the sensitivity analyses carried out by the manufacturer or the ERG regarding uncertainty in the estimates of clinical effectiveness, the acquisition and administration cost of drugs, the cost of treating psoriasis and the utility functions estimated to generate health outcomes changed this conclusion. However, a key area in determining the cost-effectiveness of anti-TNF agents is whether they should be treated as a class. If all anti-TNF agents are considered equally effective then etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab have very nearly equal costs and equal quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and all have an ICER of about £ 15,000 per QALY versus palliative care, whereas infliximab with a higher acquisition cost is dominated by the other biologics.

Etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab are licensed in the UK for the treatment of active and progressive psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in adults who have an inadequate response to standard treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of these biologic agents in the treatment of active and progressive PsA.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic reviews were performed, with data sought from 10 electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Economic Evaluations Database and EconLit) up to June 2009.

REVIEW METHODS

Full paper manuscripts of titles/abstracts considered relevant were obtained and assessed for inclusion by two reviewers according to criteria on study design, interventions, participants and outcomes. Data on study and participant characteristics, efficacy outcomes, adverse effects, costs to the health service and cost-effectiveness were extracted, along with baseline data where reported. The primary efficacy outcomes were measures of anti-inflammatory response, skin lesion response and functional status, and the safety outcome was the incidence of serious adverse events. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness was incremental cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Standard meta-analytic techniques were applied to efficacy data. Published cost-effectiveness studies and the economic analyses submitted to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) by the biologic manufacturers were reviewed. An economic model was developed by updating the model produced by the York Assessment Group for the previous NICE appraisal of biologics in PsA.

RESULTS

Pooled estimates of effect demonstrated a significant improvement in patients with PsA for all joint disease and functional status outcomes at 12-14 weeks' follow-up. The biologic treatment significantly reduced joint symptoms for etanercept [relative risk (RR) 2.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96 to 3.45], infliximab (RR 3.44, 95% CI 2.53 to 4.69) and adalimumab (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.88), with 24-week data demonstrating maintained treatment effects. Trial data demonstrated a significant effect of all three biologics on skin disease at 12 or 24 weeks. Evidence synthesis found that infliximab appeared to be most effective across all outcomes of joint and skin disease. The response in joint disease was greater with etanercept than with adalimumab, whereas the response in skin disease was greater with adalimumab than with etanercept, although these differences are not statistically significant. Under base-case assumptions, etanercept was the most likely cost-effective strategy for patients with PsA and mild-to-moderate psoriasis if the threshold for cost-effectiveness was £20,000 or £30,000 per QALY. All biologics had a similar probability of being cost-effective for patients with PsA and moderate-to-severe psoriasis at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY.

LIMITATIONS

Limited available efficacy data and difficulty in assessing PsA activity and its response to biologic therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The data indicated that etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab were efficacious in the treatment of PsA compared with placebo, with beneficial effects on joint symptoms, functional status and skin. Short-term data suggested that these biologic agents can delay joint disease progression and evidence to support their use in the treatment of PsA is convincing. Future research would benefit from long-term observational studies with large sample sizes of patients with PsA to demonstrate that beneficial effects are maintained, along with further monitoring of the safety profiles of the biologic agents.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the use of golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from a single phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT: GO-REVEAL) that compared golimumab with placebo for treating patients with active and progressive PsA who were symptomatic despite the use of previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The 14-week data showed that, compared with placebo, golimumab 50 mg significantly improved joint disease response as measured by American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 [relative risk (RR) 5.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24 to 10.56] and Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) (RR 3.45, 95% CI 2.49 to 4.87), and skin disease response as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 75 (RR 15.95, 95% CI 4.62 to 59.11). The 24-week absolute data showed that these treatment benefits were maintained. There was a significant improvement in patients’ functional status as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) change from baseline at 24 weeks (–0.33, p < 0.001). The open-label extension data showed that these beneficial effects were also maintained at 52 and 104 weeks. However, PASI 50 and PASI 90 at 14 weeks, and all of the PASI outcomes at 24 weeks, were not performed on the basis of intention-to-treat analysis. Furthermore, analyses of the 24-week data were less robust, failing to adjust for treatment contamination due to patient crossover at week 16. The manufacturer conducted a mixed treatment comparison (MTC) analysis. The ERG considered the assumption of exchangeability between the trials for the purpose of the MTC analysis to be acceptable, and the statistical approach in the MTC analysis to be reliable. Regarding the safety evaluation of golimumab, the manufacturer failed to provide longer-term data or to consider adverse event data of golimumab from controlled studies in other conditions, such as rheumatoid arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. Although the adverse effect profile of golimumab appears similar to other anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents, the longer-term safety profile of golimumab remains uncertain. The manufacturer’s submission presented a decision model to compare etanercept, infliximab, golimumab and adalimumab versus palliative care for patients with PsA. In the base-case model, 73% of the cohort of patients were assumed to have significant psoriasis (> 3% of body surface area). Estimates of the effectiveness of anti-TNF agents in terms of PsARC, HAQ change and PASI change were obtained from an MTC analysis of RCT data. The manufacturer failed to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) correctly by comparing golimumab with palliative care instead of the most cost-effective alternative (etanercept). Despite the manufacturer’s claim that golimumab is a cost-effective treatment option, the manufacturer’s own model showed that golimumab is not cost-effective compared with other biologics when the ICERs are correctly calculated. None of the sensitivity analyses carried out by the manufacturer or the ERG regarding uncertainty in the estimates of clinical effectiveness, the acquisition and administration cost of drugs, the cost of treating psoriasis and the utility functions estimated to generate health outcomes changed this conclusion. However, a key area in determining the cost-effectiveness of anti-TNF agents is whether they should be treated as a class. If all anti-TNF agents are considered equally effective then etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab have very nearly equal costs and equal quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and all have an ICER of about £15,000 per QALY versus palliative care, whereas infliximab with a higher acquisition cost is dominated by the other biologics.

Alitretinoin for the treatment of severe chronic hand eczema

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alitretinoin for the treatment of adults with severe chronic hand eczema refractory to topical steroid treatment in accordance with the licensed indication, based upon the evidence submission from Basilea Pharmaceuticals Ltd to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal process. The clinical evidence came from a single placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial of daily treatment with alitretinoin for 12-24 weeks, with follow-up for a further 24 weeks, in patients with severe chronic hand eczema (CHE) unresponsive to topical steroids. A statistically significantly greater proportion of patients using alitretinoin achieved the primary end point of clear or almost clear hands by week 24 than did those with placebo. Dose-dependent headache was the most commonly reported adverse event in patients treated with alitretinoin. Serious adverse events were rare, but alitretinoin was associated with increases in both total cholesterol and triglycerides, which has implications for risks of future cardiovascular events. The manufacturer submitted a de novo decision analytic model to estimate, over a time horizon of 3 years, the cost-effectiveness of alitretinoin versus the other relevant comparators identified by NICE. In response to the points of clarification put to it by the ERG regarding the initial submission, the manufacturer provided additional evidence and a revised decision analytic model with a 'placebo' arm. In the manufacturer's original submission to NICE, the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) reported for alitretinoin were 8614 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) versus ciclosporin, -469 pounds per QALY versus psoralen + UVA (with alitretinoin dominant) and 10,612 pounds per QALY versus azathioprine. These ICERs decreased as the time horizon was extended in sensitivity analyses. In patients with hyperkeratotic CHE and in women of child-bearing potential, the ICER remained below 20,000. pounds When the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) values used in the model were replaced with those derived from an alternative study, these ICERs increased significantly (to 22,312 pounds per QALY for alitretinoin versus azathioprine). In the revised model, alitretinoin was reported to have an ICER of 12,931 pounds per QALY gained versus supportive care (placebo). However, the model underestimates the costs of treatment associated with alitretinoin. The manufacturer assumed that patients receiving alitretinoin visited the dermatologist every 4 weeks and ceased treatment as soon as they responded to it. If, in practice, patients would receive treatment for longer than this, then the manufacturer's model will have significantly underestimated the costs to the NHS. Additional analyses undertaken by the ERG produced ICERs close to 30,000 pounds per QALY gained for alitretinoin versus supportive care. This was largely due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of alitretinoin on HRQoL. The placebo-controlled trials conducted to date have established that alitretinoin can be efficacious for the treatment of severe CHE refractory to topical steroids, but longer term follow-up of trials or the implementation of registries is required to better establish the longer term efficacy or safety of alitretinoin. NICE recommended the use of alitretinoin for patients with severe CHE and a Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) score of at least 15. Treatment was recommended to be stopped as soon as an adequate response was observed, or if CHE remained severe at 12 weeks, or if response was inadequate at 24 weeks.

Sugammadex for the reversal of muscle relaxation in general anaesthesia: a systematic review and economic assessment

BACKGROUND

Sugammadex (Bridion) is a newly developed agent for the reversal of neuromuscular blockade (NMB) induced by rocuronium or vecuronium. Sugammadex can reverse profound blockade and can be given for immediate reversal and its use would avoid the potentially serious adverse effects of the currently used agent, succinylcholine. Also, sugammadex can reverse NMB more quickly and predictably than existing agents.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of sugammadex for the reversal of muscle relaxation after general anaesthesia in UK practice following routine or rapid induction of NMB.

DATA SOURCES

Medical databases [including MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), conference proceedings, internet sites and clinical trials registers] were searched to identify published and unpublished studies. The main searches were carried out in May 2008 and supplemented by current awareness updates up until November 2008.

REVIEW METHODS

For the clinical effectiveness review, randomised controlled trials of sugammadex against placebo or an active comparator (neostigmine + glycopyrrolate) for the reversal of moderate or profound NMB and for immediate reversal (spontaneous recovery from succinylcholine-induced blockade) were included. The primary effectiveness outcome was speed of recovery from NMB, as measured by objective monitoring of neuromuscular function. For the cost-effectiveness review, a de novo economic assessment considered the routine induction of NMB and the rapid induction and/or reversal of NMB, and threshold analyses were carried out on a series of pairwise comparisons to establish how effective sugammadex needs to be to justify its cost.

RESULTS

The review of clinical effectiveness included four randomised active-control trials of sugammadex, nine randomised placebo-controlled trials and five studies in special populations. A total of 2132 titles and abstracts and 265 full-text publications were screened. The included trials indicated that sugammadex produces more rapid recovery from moderate or profound NMB than placebo or neostigmine. Median time to recovery from moderate blockade was 1.3-1.7 minutes for rocuronium + sugammadex, 21-86 minutes for rocuronium + placebo and 17.6 minutes for rocuronium + neostigmine. In profound blockade, median time to recovery was 2.7 minutes for rocuronium + sugammadex, 30 to > 90 minutes for rocuronium + placebo, and 49 minutes for rocuronium + neostigmine. Results for vecuronium were similar. In addition, recovery from NMB was faster with rocuronium reversed by sugammadex 16 mg/kg after 3 minutes (immediate reversal) than with succinylcholine followed by spontaneous recovery (median time to primary outcome 4.2 versus 7.1 minutes). The evidence base for modelling cost-effectiveness is very limited. However, assuming that the reductions in recovery times seen in the trials can be achieved in routine practice and can be used productively, sugammadex [2 mg/kg (4 mg/kg)] is potentially cost-effective at its current list price for the routine reversal of rocuronium-induced moderate (profound) blockade, if each minute of recovery time saved can be valued at approximately 2.40 pounds (1.75 pounds) or more. This is more likely to be achieved if any reductions in recovery time are in the operating room (estimated value of 4.44 pounds per minute saved) rather than the recovery room (estimated value of 0.33 pounds per minute saved). The results were broadly similar for rocuronium- and vecuronium-induced blockade. For rapid reversal of NMB it appeared that any reduction in morbidity from adopting sugammadex is unlikely to result in significant cost savings.

LIMITATIONS

The evidence base was not large and many of the published trials were dose-finding and safety studies with very small sample sizes. Also, some relevant outcomes, in particular patient experience/quality of life and resources/costs used, were either not investigated or not reported. In addition, it is likely that the patients included in the efficacy trials were relatively young and in good general health compared with the overall surgical population. Regarding the economic evaluation, there appears to be no evidence linking measures of clinical efficacy to patients' health-related quality of life and mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugammadex may be a cost-effective option compared with neostigmine + glycopyrrolate for reversal of moderate NMB and also provides the facility to recover patients from profound blockade. Rocuronium + sugammadex could be considered as a replacement for succinylcholine for rapid induction (and reversal) of NMB, although this may not be a cost-effective option in some types of patient at current list prices for sugammadex. Considerable uncertainties remain about whether the full benefits of sugammadex can be realised in clinical practice.

Capecitabine for the treatment of advanced gastric cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into capecitabine for advanced gastric cancer (aGC). Capecitabine is an oral prodrug of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). The decision problem addressed was the use of capecitabine (X) compared to 5-FU (F), in combination regimens with platinum agents [cisplatin (C) or oxaliplatin (O)] with or without epirubicin (E), in patients with inoperable aGC. Approximately 7000 new cases of gastric cancer are diagnosed in England and Wales every year. Of these, 80% are candidates for palliative chemotherapy and around 2900 receive such treatment. The standard UK practice for patients with aGC who are considered fit enough has consisted of a triplet regimen comprising intravenous 5-FU in combination with a platinum agent (capecitabine or oxaliplatin) and epirubicin. The manufacturer's submission (MS) focused on direct evidence from two phase III non-inferiority randomised controlled trials (RCTs), REAL-2 (Randomized ECF for Advanced and Locally advanced oesophagogastric cancer-2; n = 1002) and ML17032 (n = 316). REAL-2 randomised patients to four regimens (ECF, ECX, EOF and EOX) to compare 5-FU with capecitabine and cisplatin with oxaliplatin, whereas ML17032 compared CX with CF. Efficacy outcomes from these trials were pooled in an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Both RCTs demonstrated statistically significant non-inferiority of capecitabine on the outcome of overall survival (OS) assessed in the per-protocol population; equivalent results were also demonstrated for progression-free survival (PFS). The IPD meta-analysis found a statistically significant benefit in OS for capecitabine compared with 5-FU [unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 0.98, p = 0.027]. There was no evidence of a poorer safety profile for capecitabine overall, nor of any difference in quality of life (QoL) between the two fluoropyrimidines. The MS included a de novo economic evaluation based on a cost-minimisation analysis (CMA), where the costs of capecitabine-based regimens were compared with their equivalent 5-FU-based regimens in aGC. A time horizon of 5.5 cycles (each lasting for 21 days) was used in the base-case analysis, representing the duration of treatment. The results of the manufacturer's base-case analysis showed that capecitabine regimens are associated with mean net cost savings of 1620 pounds (ECX vs ECF), 1572 pounds (EOX vs EOF) and 4210 pounds (CX vs CF). The manufacturer failed to comment explicitly on the uncertainty around the estimates of efficacy and on the fact that the IPD meta-analysis suggests that capecitabine may actually be more effective on average. Further analyses exploring additional costs incurred by the UK NHS from extending survival duration showed that these are unlikely to have a material effect on conclusions. A full probabilistic analysis was not performed; however, the evidence explored by the MS and ERG is consistent in suggesting that capecitabine has a lower mean cost than 5-FU-based regimens. The submission was considered to contain convincing evidence of the non-inferiority of capecitabine to 5-FU on survival; this evidence was considered to be applicable to UK practice. Although some uncertainty remains, the ERG deemed CMA to be an appropriate framework with which to analyse this decision problem. Overall cost estimates for the CMA were generated appropriately and were robust to uncertainties regarding assumptions and sources. At the time of writing, the guidance document issued by NICE on 28 July 2010 states that capecitabine in combination with a platinum-based regimen is recommended for the first-line treatment of inoperable advanced gastric cancer.

Sugammadex for reversal of neuromuscular block after rapid sequence intubation: a systematic review and economic assessment

Sugammadex 16 mg kg⁻¹ can be used for the immediate reversal of neuromuscular block 3 min after administration of rocuronium and could be used in place of succinylcholine for emergency intubation. We have systematically reviewed the efficacy and cost-effectiveness and made an economic assessment of sugammadex for immediate reversal. The economic assessment investigated whether sugammadex appears cost-effective under various assumptions about the value of any reduction in recovery time with sugammadex, the likelihood of a 'can't intubate, can't ventilate' (CICV) event, the age of the patient, and the length of the procedure. Three trials were included in the efficacy review. Sugammadex administered 3 or 5 min after rocuronium produced markedly faster recovery than placebo or spontaneous recovery from succinylcholine-induced block. No published economic evaluations were found. Our economic analyses showed that sugammadex appears more cost-effective, where the value of any reduction in recovery time is greater, where the reduction in mortality compared with succinylcholine is greater, and where the patient is younger, for lower probabilities of a CICV event and for long procedures which do not require profound block throughout. Because of the lack of evidence, the value of some parameters remains unknown, which makes it difficult to provide a definitive assessment of the cost-effectiveness of sugammadex in practice. The use of sugammadex in combination with high-dose rocuronium is efficacious. Further research is needed to clarify key parameters in the analysis and to allow a fuller economic assessment.

Sugammadex compared with neostigmine/glycopyrrolate for routine reversal of neuromuscular block: a systematic review and economic evaluation

The cost-effectiveness of sugammadex for the routine reversal of muscle relaxation produced by rocuronium or vecuronium in UK practice is uncertain. We performed a systematic review of randomized controlled trials of sugammadex compared with neostigmine/glycopyrrolate and an economic assessment of sugammadex for the reversal of moderate or profound neuromuscular block (NMB) produced by rocuronium or vecuronium. The economic assessment aimed to establish the reduction in recovery time and the 'value of time saved' which would be necessary for sugammadex to be potentially cost-effective compared with existing practice. Three trials indicated that sugammadex 2 mg kg⁻¹ (4 mg kg⁻¹) produces more rapid recovery from moderate (profound) NMB than neostigmine/glycopyrrolate. The economic assessment indicated that if the reductions in recovery time associated with sugammadex in the trials are replicated in routine practice, sugammadex would be cost-effective if those reductions are achieved in the operating theatre (assumed value of staff time, £4.44 per minute), but not if they are achieved in the recovery room (assumed value of staff time, £0.33 per minute). However, there is considerable uncertainty in these results. Sugammadex has the potential to be cost-effective compared with neostigmine/glycopyrrolate for the reversal of rocuronium-induced moderate or profound NMB, provided that the time savings observed in trials can be achieved and put to productive use in clinical practice. Further research is required to evaluate the effects of sugammadex on patient safety, predictability of recovery from NMB, patient outcomes, and efficient use of resources.

Capecitabine for the treatment of advanced gastric cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into capecitabine for advanced gastric cancer (aGC). Capecitabine is an oral prodrug of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). The decision problem addressed was the use of capecitabine (X) compared to 5-FU (F), in combination regimens with platinum agents [cisplatin (C) or oxaliplatin (O)] with or without epirubicin (E), in patients with inoperable aGC. Approximately 7000 new cases of gastric cancer are diagnosed in England and Wales every year. Of these, 80% are candidates for palliative chemotherapy and around 2900 receive such treatment. The standard UK practice for patients with aGC who are considered fit enough has consisted of a triplet regimen comprising intravenous 5-FU in combination with a platinum agent (capecitabine or oxaliplatin) and epirubicin. The manufacturer’s submission (MS) focused on direct evidence from two phase III non-inferiority randomised controlled trials (RCTs), REAL-2 (Randomized ECF for Advanced and Locally advanced oesophagogastric cancer-2; n = 1002) and ML17032 (n = 316). REAL-2 randomised patients to four regimens (ECF, ECX, EOF and EOX) to compare 5-FU with capecitabine and cisplatin with oxaliplatin, whereas ML17032 compared CX with CF. Efficacy outcomes from these trials were pooled in an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Both RCTs demonstrated statistically significant non-inferiority of capecitabine on the outcome of overall survival (OS) assessed in the per-protocol population; equivalent results were also demonstrated for progression-free survival (PFS). The IPD meta-analysis found a statistically significant benefit in OS for capecitabine compared with 5-FU [unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 0.98, p = 0.027]. There was no evidence of a poorer safety profile for capecitabine overall, nor of any difference in quality of life (QoL) between the two fluoropyrimidines. The MS included a de novo economic evaluation based on a cost-minimisation analysis (CMA), where the costs of capecitabine-based regimens were compared with their equivalent 5-FU-based regimens in aGC. A time horizon of 5.5 cycles (each lasting for 21 days) was used in the base-case analysis, representing the duration of treatment. The results of the manufacturer’s base-case analysis showed that capecitabine regimens are associated with mean net cost savings of £1620 (ECX vs ECF), £1572 (EOX vs EOF) and £4210 (CX vs CF). The manufacturer failed to comment explicitly on the uncertainty around the estimates of efficacy and on the fact that the IPD meta-analysis suggests that capecitabine may actually be more effective on average. Further analyses exploring additional costs incurred by the UK NHS from extending survival duration showed that these are unlikely to have a material effect on conclusions. A full probabilistic analysis was not performed; however, the evidence explored by the MS and ERG is consistent in suggesting that capecitabine has a lower mean cost than 5-FU-based regimens. The submission was considered to contain convincing evidence of the non-inferiority of capecitabine to 5-FU on survival; this evidence was considered to be applicable to UK practice. Although some uncertainty remains, the ERG deemed CMA to be an appropriate framework with which to analyse this decision problem. Overall cost estimates for the CMA were generated appropriately and were robust to uncertainties regarding assumptions and sources. At the time of writing, the guidance document issued by NICE on 28 July 2010 states that capecitabine in combination with a platinum-based regimen is recommended for the first-line treatment of inoperable advanced gastric cancer.

Rimonabant for the treatment of overweight and obese people

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of rimonabant for the treatment of obese or overweight patients based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Centre for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The submission's main evidence came from four randomised controlled trials. Rimonabant resulted in a significantly greater benefit than placebo for all primary weight loss outcomes. At 1 year, rimonabant had a statistically significant beneficial effect on systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose in diabetics and non-diabetics, and glycosylated haemoglobin in diabetics. Improvements were maintained over 2 years with rimonabant; withdrawal of rimonabant at 1 year resulted in a reduction in weight loss until there was no difference from placebo at 2 years. Psychiatric adverse events were experienced by 26% and 14% of rimonabant and placebo patients respectively; figures for symptoms of depression were 9% and 5% respectively. Pairwise comparisons of orlistat, sibutramine and rimonabant showed beneficial effects of rimonabant over orlistat and sibutramine for weight loss outcomes; however, response hurdles imposed on orlistat or sibutramine in clinical practice may not have been applied in the orlistat and sibutramine trials. The manufacturer's Markov cohort model evaluated rimonabant versus orlistat, sibutramine and diet and exercise alone for three base-case populations. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of rimonabant varied from 10,534 pounds to 13,236 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) versus diet and exercise, to 8977 pounds to 12,138 pounds per QALY versus orlistat, to 1463 pounds to 3908 pounds per QALY versus sibutramine. In subgroup analysis there was a wider variation in the ICER estimates although none exceeded 20,000 pounds per QALY. The ICER of rimonabant remained under 20,000 pounds per QALY in reanalyses by the manufacturer and the ERG, with the results sensitive to the source of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) benefits in the model. Four treatment strategies were modelled in comparisons of rimonabant versus diet and exercise alone and orlistat and sibutramine in which rimonabant was continued only in patients achieving 5% weight loss at 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. In pairwise comparisons rimonabant remained below a threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY in 70% of the comparisons reported. The results were most sensitive to the decrement applied to depression and the costs of screening for depression. In conclusion, areas of uncertainty remain in relation to the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rimonabant, for example lack of evidence on long-term outcomes and the effect of rimonabant on cardiovascular events, developing diabetes and mortality, and lack of data on the HRQoL benefits associated with rimonabant. The lack of response hurdles applied to sibutramine and orlistat means that the comparator strategies were not considered by the ERG to reflect their respective product licenses or current NHS use. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that rimonabant is recommended as an adjunct to diet and exercise for adults who are obese or overweight and who have had an inadequate response to, are intolerant of or are contraindicated to orlistat and sibutramine.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of biomarkers for the prioritisation of patients awaiting coronary revascularisation: a systematic review and decision model

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a range of strategies based on conventional clinical information and novel circulating biomarkers for prioritising patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from 1966 until 30 November 2008.

REVIEW METHODS

We carried out systematic reviews and meta-analyses of literature-based estimates of the prognostic effects of circulating biomarkers in stable coronary disease. We assessed five routinely measured biomarkers and the eight emerging (i.e. not currently routinely measured) biomarkers recommended by the European Society of Cardiology Angina guidelines. The cost-effectiveness of prioritising patients on the waiting list for CABG using circulating biomarkers was compared against a range of alternative formal approaches to prioritisation as well as no formal prioritisation. A decision-analytic model was developed to synthesise data on a range of effectiveness, resource use and value parameters necessary to determine cost-effectiveness. A total of seven strategies was evaluated in the final model.

RESULTS

We included 390 reports of biomarker effects in our review. The quality of individual study reports was variable, with evidence of small study (publication) bias and incomplete adjustment for simple clinical information such as age, sex, smoking, diabetes and obesity. The risk of cardiovascular events while on the waiting list for CABG was 3 per 10,000 patients per day within the first 90 days (184 events in 9935 patients with a mean of 59 days at risk). Risk factors associated with an increased risk, and included in the basic risk equation, were age, diabetes, heart failure, previous myocardial infarction and involvement of the left main coronary artery or three-vessel disease. The optimal strategy in terms of cost-effectiveness considerations was a prioritisation strategy employing biomarker information. Evaluating shorter maximum waiting times did not alter the conclusion that a prioritisation strategy with a risk score using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was cost-effective. These results were robust to most alternative scenarios investigating other sources of uncertainty. However, the cost-effectiveness of the strategy using a risk score with both eGFR and C-reactive protein (CRP) was potentially sensitive to the cost of the CRP test itself (assumed to be 6 pounds in the base-case scenario).

CONCLUSIONS

Formally employing more information in the prioritisation of patients awaiting CABG appears to be a cost-effective approach and may result in improved health outcomes. The most robust results relate to a strategy employing a risk score using conventional clinical information together with a single biomarker (eGFR). The additional prognostic information conferred by collecting the more costly novel circulating biomarker CRP, singly or in combination with other biomarkers, in terms of waiting list prioritisation is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Alitretinoin for the treatment of severe chronic hand eczema

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alitretinoin for the treatment of adults with severe chronic hand eczema refractory to topical steroid treatment in accordance with the licensed indication, based upon the evidence submission from Basilea Pharmaceuticals Ltd to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal process. The clinical evidence came from a single placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial of daily treatment with alitretinoin for 12–24 weeks, with follow-up for a further 24 weeks, in patients with severe chronic hand eczema (CHE) unresponsive to topical steroids. A statistically significantly greater proportion of patients using alitretinoin achieved the primary end point of clear or almost clear hands by week 24 than did those with placebo. Dose-dependent headache was the most commonly reported adverse event in patients treated with alitretinoin. Serious adverse events were rare, but alitretinoin was associated with increases in both total cholesterol and triglycerides, which has implications for risks of future cardiovascular events. The manufacturer submitted a de novo decision analytic model to estimate, over a time horizon of 3 years, the cost-effectiveness of alitretinoin versus the other relevant comparators identified by NICE. In response to the points of clarification put to it by the ERG regarding the initial submission, the manufacturer provided additional evidence and a revised decision analytic model with a ‘placebo’ arm. In the manufacturer’s original submission to NICE, the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) reported for alitretinoin were £8614 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) versus ciclosporin, –£469 per QALY versus psoralen + UVA (with alitretinoin dominant) and £10,612 per QALY versus azathioprine. These ICERs decreased as the time horizon was extended in sensitivity analyses. In patients with hyperkeratotic CHE and in women of child-bearing potential, the ICER remained below £20,000. When the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) values used in the model were replaced with those derived from an alternative study, these ICERs increased significantly (to £22,312 per QALY for alitretinoin versus azathioprine). In the revised model, alitretinoin was reported to have an ICER of £12,931 per QALY gained versus supportive care (placebo). However, the model underestimates the costs of treatment associated with alitretinoin. The manufacturer assumed that patients receiving alitretinoin visited the dermatologist every 4 weeks and ceased treatment as soon as they responded to it. If, in practice, patients would receive treatment for longer than this, then the manufacturer’s model will have significantly underestimated the costs to the NHS. Additional analyses undertaken by the ERG produced ICERs close to £30,000 per QALY gained for alitretinoin versus supportive care. This was largely due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of alitretinoin on HRQoL. The placebo-controlled trials conducted to date have established that alitretinoin can be efficacious for the treatment of severe CHE refractory to topical steroids, but longer term follow-up of trials or the implementation of registries is required to better establish the longer term efficacy or safety of alitretinoin. NICE recommended the use of alitretinoin for patients with severe CHE and a Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) score of at least 15. Treatment was recommended to be stopped as soon as an adequate response was observed, or if CHE remained severe at 12 weeks, or if response was inadequate at 24 weeks.

Multicentre randomised controlled trial examining the cost-effectiveness of contrast-enhanced high field magnetic resonance imaging in women with primary breast cancer scheduled for wide local excision (COMICE)

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether the addition of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to current patient evaluation by triple assessment would aid tumour localisation within the breast and thus reduce the reoperation rate in women with primary breast tumours who are scheduled for wide local excision (WLE), and to assess whether the addition of MRI would be cost-effective for the UK NHS.

DESIGN

A multicentre, randomised controlled, open, parallel group trial with equal randomisation. The main design was supplemented with a qualitative study to assess patients' experiences of the treatment process and care pathway, and involved the development of a non-scheduled standardised interview (NSSI).

SETTING

The study took place at 45 hospitals throughout the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 18 years or over with biopsy-proven primary breast cancer who had undergone triple assessment, were scheduled for WLE, and were capable of providing written informed consent.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomised to receive MRI or no MR1. Randomisation was performed using minimisation, incorporating a random element. All MRI was performed at 1.5 T or 1.0 T with a dedicated bilateral breast coil.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary end point of the trial was the reoperation rate. Secondary outcome measures included discrepancies between imaging and histopathology, and the effectiveness of using both procedures; change in clinical management after using MRI; the clinical significance of MRI-only-detected lesions; the rate of interventions; the ipsilateral tumour recurrence rate; patient quality of life (QoL); and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

From a total of 1623 patients, 816 were randomised to MRI and 807 to no MRI. No differences in reoperation rates were found between the two groups of patients [MRI patients 18.75%, no MRI 19.33%, difference 0.58%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.24 to 4.40]. Therefore, the addition of MRI to conventional triple assessment was not found to be statistically significantly associated with a reduced reoperation rate (odds ratio = 0.96, 95% CI 0.75-1.24, p = 0.7691). The best agreement between all imaging modalities and histopathology with regard to tumour size and extent of disease was found in patients over 50 years old with ductal tumours NST and who were node negative. In the imaging arm, mastectomy was found to be pathologically avoidable for 16 (27.6%) out of 58 patients who underwent the procedure. There were no significant differences between the groups regarding the proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy, radiotherapy or additional adjuvant therapies, as well as for local recurrence-free interval rates and QoL. An acceptable NSSI was developed for use in this population of patients. Economic analysis found no difference in outcomes between the two trial arms.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of MRI to triple assessment did not result in a reduction in operation rates, and the use of MRI would thus consume extra resource with few or no benefits in terms of cost-effectiveness or HRQoL. However, MRI showed potential to improve tumour localisation, and preoperative biopsy of MRI-only-detected lesions is likely to minimise the incidence of inappropriate mastectomy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN57474502.

Rimonabant for the treatment of overweight and obese people

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of rimonabant for the treatment of obese or overweight patients based upon a review of the manufacturer’s submission to the National Centre for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The submission’s main evidence came from four randomised controlled trials. Rimonabant resulted in a significantly greater benefit than placebo for all primary weight loss outcomes. At 1 year, rimonabant had a statistically significant beneficial effect on systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose in diabetics and non-diabetics, and glycosylated haemoglobin in diabetics. Improvements were maintained over 2 years with rimonabant; withdrawal of rimonabant at 1 year resulted in a reduction in weight loss until there was no difference from placebo at 2 years. Psychiatric adverse events were experienced by 26% and 14% of rimonabant and placebo patients respectively; figures for symptoms of depression were 9% and 5% respectively. Pairwise comparisons of orlistat, sibutramine and rimonabant showed beneficial effects of rimonabant over orlistat and sibutramine for weight loss outcomes; however, response hurdles imposed on orlistat or sibutramine in clinical practice may not have been applied in the orlistat and sibutramine trials. The manufacturer’s Markov cohort model evaluated rimonabant versus orlistat, sibutramine and diet and exercise alone for three base-case populations. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of rimonabant varied from £10,534–£13,236 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) versus diet and exercise, to £8977–£12,138 per QALY versus orlistat, to £1463–£3908 per QALY versus sibutramine. In subgroup analysis there was a wider variation in the ICER estimates although none exceeded £20,000 per QALY. The ICER of rimonabant remained under £20,000 per QALY in reanalyses by the manufacturer and the ERG, with the results sensitive to the source of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) benefits in the model. Four treatment strategies were modelled in comparisons of rimonabant versus diet and exercise alone and orlistat and sibutramine in which rimonabant was continued only in patients achieving 5% weight loss at 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. In pairwise comparisons rimonabant remained below a threshold of £30,000 per QALY in 70% of the comparisons reported. The results were most sensitive to the decrement applied to depression and the costs of screening for depression. In conclusion, areas of uncertainty remain in relation to the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rimonabant, for example lack of evidence on long-term outcomes and the effect of rimonabant on cardiovascular events, developing diabetes and mortality, and lack of data on the HRQoL benefits associated with rimonabant. The lack of response hurdles applied to sibutramine and orlistat means that the comparator strategies were not considered by the ERG to reflect their respective product licenses or current NHS use. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that rimonabant is recommended as an adjunct to diet and exercise for adults who are obese or overweight and who have had an inadequate response to, are intolerant of or are contraindicated to orlistat and sibutramine.

Cetuximab plus radiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cetuximab plus radiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (LA SCCHN) considered inappropriate for chemoradiotherapy but appropriate for radiotherapy, based upon the evidence submission from Merck Pharmaceuticals to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's submission was generally of good quality and was an accurate representation of the original reference data. One good-quality randomised controlled trial comparing radiotherapy plus cetuximab with radiotherapy alone in patients with stage III or IV non-metastatic LA SCCHN was included, demonstrating that the duration of locoregional control was significantly longer with radiotherapy plus cetuximab than with radiotherapy alone; also, overall and progression-free survival were significantly longer and the overall response rate was significantly better with the combination therapy. Cetuximab did not exacerbate the common toxic effects associated with radiotherapy of the head and neck. No supporting evidence for these findings are available. The patient population in the trial included a high proportion of patients who would be expected to be suitable for chemoradiotherapy and therefore does not match the population described in the submission's decision problem. Also, the radiotherapy regimens used in the trial are not typical of current UK practice. The ERG considered the manufacturer's economic evaluation to comprise the only relevant evidence to consider for the purposes of this STA. The economic model was considered appropriate for the decision problem. The results suggested that cetuximab plus radiotherapy was cost-effective compared with radiotherapy alone under a broad range of different assumptions on the basis of a cost-effectiveness threshold of 20,000 pounds. In the base case the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of cetuximab plus radiotherapy compared with radiotherapy alone in the treatment of patients with LA SCCHN was 6390 pounds per additional QALY. Simple sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of the results were undertaken, suggesting that areas of uncertainty that emerged in the modelling are unlikely to have a material effect on the conclusions. The guidance issued by NICE in May 2007 as a result of the STA states that cetuximab in combination with radiotherapy is not recommended for patients with LA SCCHN.

A randomised controlled trial to compare minimally invasive glucose monitoring devices with conventional monitoring in the management of insulin-treated diabetes mellitus (MITRE)

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether the additional information provided by minimally invasive glucose monitors results in improved glycaemic control in people with poorly controlled insulin-requiring diabetes, and to assess the acceptability and health economic impact of the devices.

DESIGN

A four-arm randomised controlled trial was undertaken.

SETTING

Participants were recruited from secondary care diabetes clinics in four hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

404 people aged over 18 years with insulin-treated diabetes mellitus (types 1 or 2) for at least 6 months who were receiving two or more injections of insulin daily were eligible. Participants had to have had two glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values > or = 7.5% in the last 15 months.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised to one of four groups. Two groups received minimally invasive glucose monitoring devices [GlucoWatch Biographer or MiniMed Continuous Glucose Monitoring System (CGMS)]. These groups were compared with an attention control group (standard treatment with nurse feedback sessions at the same frequency as those in the device groups) and a standard control group (reflecting common practice in the clinical management of diabetes in the UK).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in HbA1c from baseline to 3, 6, 12 and 18 months was the primary indicator of short- to long-term efficacy in this study. Perceived acceptability of the devices was assessed by use and a self-report questionnaire. A health economic analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

At 18 months all groups demonstrated a decline in HbA1c levels from baseline. Mean percentage changes in HbA1c were -1.4 for the GlucoWatch group, -4.2 for the CGMS group, -5.1 for the attention control group and -4.9 for the standard care control group. At 18 months the relative percentage reduction in HbA1c in each of the intervention arms was less than that in the standard care control group. In the intention to treat analysis no significant differences were found between any of the groups at any of the assessment times. There was no evidence that the additional information provided by the devices resulted in any change in the number or nature of treatment recommendations offered by the nurses. The health economics analysis indicated no advantage in the groups who received the devices; a lower cost and higher benefit were found for the attention control arm. Assessment of device use and acceptability indicated a decline in use of both devices, which was most marked in the GlucoWatch group by 18 months (20% still using GlucoWatch versus 57% still using the CGMS). The GlucoWatch group reported more side effects, greater interference with daily activities and more difficulty in using the device than the CGMS group.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuous glucose monitors do not lead to improved clinical outcomes and are not cost-effective for improving HbA1c in unselected individuals with poorly controlled insulin-requiring diabetes. On acceptability grounds the data suggest that the GlucoWatch will not be frequently used by individuals with diabetes because of the large number of side effects.

Enhanced external counterpulsation for the treatment of stable angina and heart failure: a systematic review and economic analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP) compared with usual care and placebo for refractory stable angina and heart failure, and to undertake analyses of the expected value of information to assess the potential value of future research on EECP.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases were searched between November 2007 and March 2008.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken and a decision model developed to compare EECP treatment with no treatment in adults with chronic stable angina.

RESULTS

Five studies were included in the review. In the Multicenter Study of Enhanced External Counterpulsation (MUST-EECP), time to greater than or equal to 1-mm ST segment depression (exercise-induced ischaemia) was statistically significantly improved in the EECP group compared with the control group (sham EECP), mean difference (MD) 41 seconds [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.10-73.90]. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the EECP and control groups in the change in exercise duration from baseline to end of treatment, self-reported angina episodes or daily nitroglycerin use, and the clinical significance of the limited benefits was unclear. There was also a lack of data on long-term outcomes. There were more withdrawals due to adverse events in the EECP group than in the control group, as well as a greater proportion of patients with adverse events [relative risk (RR) 2.13, 95% CI 1.35-3.38]. The three non-randomised studies compared EECP with elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and usual care. There was a high risk of selection bias in all three studies and the results should be treated with considerable caution. The study comparing an EECP registry with a PCI registry reported similar 1-year all-cause mortality in both groups. In the Prospective Evaluation of EECP in Congestive Heart Failure (PEECH) trial, patients with heart failure were randomised to EECP or to usual care (pharmacotherapy only). At 6 months post treatment, the proportion of patients achieving at least a 60-second increase in exercise duration was higher in the EECP group (RR 1.39, 95% CI 0.89-2.16), but the proportion with an improvement in peak VO2 was similar in both groups. The clinical significance of this is unclear. The proportion of patients in the EECP group with an improvement in New York Heart Association classification was higher (RR 2.25, 95% CI 1.25-4.06) at 6 months, as was mean exercise duration, MD 34.6 (95% CI -4.86 to 74.06). There were more withdrawals in the EECP group than in the control group as a result of adverse events (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.67-1.66). There were limitations in the generalisability of results of the trial and, again, a lack of data on long-term outcomes. The review of cost-effectiveness evidence found only one unpublished study but demonstrated that the long-term maintenance of quality of life benefits of EECP is central to the estimate of its cost-effectiveness. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EECP was 18,643 pounds for each additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a probability of being cost-effective of 0.44 and 0.70 at cost-effectiveness thresholds of 20,000 pounds and 30,000 pounds per QALY gained respectively. Results were sensitive to the duration of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) benefits from treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from a single randomised controlled trial (MUST-EECP) do not provide firm evidence of the clinical effectiveness of EECP in refractory stable angina or in heart failure. High-quality studies are required to investigate the benefits of EECP, whether these outweigh the common adverse effects and its long-term cost-effectiveness in terms of quality of life benefits.

Cetuximab plus radiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cetuximab plus radiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (LA SCCHN) considered inappropriate for chemoradiotherapy but appropriate for radiotherapy, based upon the evidence submission from Merck Pharmaceuticals to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer’s submission was generally of good quality and was an accurate representation of the original reference data. One good-quality randomised controlled trial comparing radiotherapy plus cetuximab with radiotherapy alone in patients with stage III or IV non-metastatic LA SCCHN was included, demonstrating that the duration of locoregional control was significantly longer with radiotherapy plus cetuximab than with radiotherapy alone; also, overall and progression-free survival were significantly longer and the overall response rate was significantly better with the combination therapy. Cetuximab did not exacerbate the common toxic effects associated with radiotherapy of the head and neck. No supporting evidence for these findings are available. The patient population in the trial included a high proportion of patients who would be expected to be suitable for chemoradiotherapy and therefore does not match the population described in the submission’s decision problem. Also, the radiotherapy regimens used in the trial are not typical of current UK practice. The ERG considered the manufacturer’s economic evaluation to comprise the only relevant evidence to consider for the purposes of this STA. The economic model was considered appropriate for the decision problem. The results suggested that cetuximab plus radiotherapy was cost-effective compared with radiotherapy alone under a broad range of different assumptions on the basis of a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000. In the base case the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of cetuximab plus radiotherapy compared with radiotherapy alone in the treatment of patients with LA SCCHN was £6390 per additional QALY. Simple sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of the results were undertaken, suggesting that areas of uncertainty that emerged in the modelling are unlikely to have a material effect on the conclusions. The guidance issued by NICE in May 2007 as a result of the STA states that cetuximab in combination with radiotherapy is not recommended for patients with LA SCCHN.

Randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of continuous glucose monitoring on HbA(1c) in insulin-treated diabetes (MITRE Study)

AIMS

To determine whether continuous glucose information provided through use of either the GlucoWatch G2 Biographer or the MiniMed continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) results in improved glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) for insulin-treated adults with diabetes mellitus, relative to an attention control and standard care group.

METHODS

Four hundred and four adults taking at least two daily insulin injections and with two consecutive HbA(1c) values > or = 7.5% were recruited to this randomized controlled trial (RCT). All were trained at baseline to use the same monitor for traditional capillary glucose testing throughout the 18-month study. The CGMS group were asked to wear the device three times during the first 3 months of the trial and on another three occasions thereafter. The GlucoWatch group wore the device a minimum of four times per month and a maximum of four times per week during the first 3 months and as desired for the remainder of the trial. Trained diabetes research nurses used downloaded data to guide therapy adjustments. Proportional reduction in HbA(1c) from baseline to 18 months was the primary outcome measure.

RESULTS

Neither an intention-to-treat nor per-protocol analysis showed improvement in HbA(1c) in the device groups compared with standard care. For the intention-to-treat analysis, when the standard care group was compared with each of the other groups, this equated to differences in mean relative HbA(1c) reduction (95% confidence interval) from baseline to 18 months of 3.5% (-1.3 to 8.3; GlucoWatch), 0.7% (-4.1 to 5.5; CGMS), and -0.1% (-4.6 to 4.3; attention control).

CONCLUSIONS

The additional information provided by these devices did not result in improvements in HbA(1c) in this population.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of first, second and third generation polychemotherapy regimens in women with early breast cancer who have differing prognoses

Abstract #6106

Purpose: To use individual patient data from three sequential large UK randomised trials to facilitate an integrated comparison of the cost-effectiveness of three generations of chemotherapy plus a no treatment option. The ABC trial compared CMF versus no chemo (1991 patients), NEAT trial Epirubicin-CMF versus CMF (2391 patients) and TACT FEC-Docetaxel vs FEC or epi-CMF (4162 patients)&#x2028; Methods: The model estimates lifetime costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Model inputs include transition probabilities which are estimated from a longitudinal observational study using parametric survival models incorporating characteristics such as number of positive lymph nodes, ER status, grade and tumour size that allow analyses to be conducted for women with differing baseline prognoses. The effects of each chemotherapy regimen on preventing recurrence are taken from the above UK trials and are assumed to be additive on the log scale to facilitate previously untested comparisons. Costs and utility decrements associated with chemotherapy, its toxicity, and type of recurrent disease, are informed from the trial data and published literature. A secondary analysis is performed by basing the effects of each chemotherapy regimen on published meta-analyses based on individual level data that include RCTs conducted in a range of multi-national settings.&#x2028; Results: For a woman aged 50 years with 1 positive node, grade 2 tumour size 2cm, ECMF is expected to be the most cost-effective regimen. However, the cost-effectiveness of the chemotherapy options varies between women with different risk factors. On the basis of the results of the TACT trial, 3rd generation chemotherapy is not cost-effective, but including evidence of the relative risk of recurrence from non-UK trials, particularly those with ER- and HER2+ phenotype, may alter this conclusion.&#x2028; Indicative lifetime costs and QALYs for a woman aged 50 years, with 1 positive node, grade 2 tumor size 2cm, with and without ER+ are shown:&#x2028; &#x2028; &#x2028; &#x2028; Conclusions: Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of chemotherapy regimens in women with early breast cancer who have differing prognoses is feasible using an integrative synthesis and model. Thought does, however, need to be given to how best present cost-effectiveness results when there are differing levels of baseline risk.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(2 Suppl):Abstract nr 6106.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of minimal access surgery amongst people with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease - a UK collaborative study. The REFLUX trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of a policy of relatively early laparoscopic surgery compared with continued medical management amongst people with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) judged suitable for both policies.

DESIGN

Relative clinical effectiveness was assessed by a randomised trial (with parallel non-randomised preference groups) comparing a laparoscopic surgery-based policy with a continued medical management policy. The economic evaluation compared the cost-effectiveness of the two management policies in order to identify the most efficient provision of future care and describe the resource impact that various policies for fundoplication would have on the NHS.

SETTING

A total of 21 hospitals throughout the UK with a local partnership between surgeon(s) and gastroenterologist(s) who shared the secondary care of patients with GORD.

PARTICIPANTS

The 810 participants, who were identified retrospectively or prospectively via their participating clinicians, had both documented evidence of GORD (endoscopy and/or manometry/24-hour pH monitoring) and symptoms for longer than 12 months. In addition, the recruiting clinician(s) was clinically uncertain about which management policy was best.

INTERVENTION

Of the 810 eligible patients who consented to participate, 357 were recruited to the randomised arm of the trial (178 allocated to surgical management, 179 allocated to continued, but optimised, medical management) and 453 recruited to the parallel non-randomised preference arm (261 chose surgical management, 192 chose to continue with best medical management). The type of fundoplication was left to the discretion of the surgeon.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants completed a baseline REFLUX questionnaire, developed specifically for this study, containing a disease-specific outcome measure, the Short Form with 36 Items (SF-36), the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Beliefs about Medicines and Surgery questionnaires (BMQ/BSQ). Postal questionnaires were completed at participant-specific time intervals after joining the trial (equivalent to approximately 3 and 12 months after surgery). Intraoperative data were recorded by the surgeons and all other in-hospital data were collected by the research nurse. At the end of the study period, participants completed a discrete choice experiment questionnaire.

RESULTS

The randomised groups were well balanced at entry. Participants had been taking GORD medication for a median of 32 months; the mean age of participants was 46 years and 66% were men. Of 178 randomised to surgery, 111 (62%) actually had fundoplication. There was a mixture of clinical and personal reasons why some patients did not have surgery, sometimes related to long waiting times. A total or partial wrap procedure was performed depending on surgeon preference. Complications were uncommon and there were no deaths associated with surgery. By the equivalent of 12 months after surgery, 38% in the randomised surgical group (14% amongst those who had surgery) were taking reflux medication compared with 90% in the randomised medical group. There were substantial differences (one-third to one-half standard deviation) favouring the randomised surgical group across the health status measures, the size depending on assumptions about the proportion that actually had fundoplication. These differences were the same or somewhat smaller than differences observed at 3 months. The lower the REFLUX score, the worse the symptoms at trial entry and the larger the benefit observed after surgery. The preference surgical group had the lowest REFLUX scores at baseline. These scores improved substantially after surgery, and by 12 months they were better than those in the preference medical group. The BMQ/BSQ and discrete choice experiment did distinguish the preference groups from each other and from the randomised groups. The latter indicated that the risk of serious complications was the most important single attribute of a treatment option. A within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that the surgery policy was more costly (mean 2049 pounds) but also more effective [+0.088 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. The estimated incremental cost per QALY was 19,000-23,000 pounds, with a probability between 46% (when 62% received surgery) and 19% (when all received surgery) of cost-effectiveness at a threshold of 20,000 pounds per QALY. Modelling plausible longer-term scenarios (such as lifetime benefit after surgery) indicated a greater likelihood (74%) of cost-effectiveness at a threshold of 20,000 pounds, but applying a range of alternative scenarios indicated wide uncertainty. The expected value of perfect information was greatest for longer-term quality of life and proportions of surgical patients requiring medication.

CONCLUSIONS

Amongst patients requiring long-term medication to control symptoms of GORD, surgical management significantly increases general and reflux-specific health-related quality of life measures, at least up to 12 months after surgery. Complications of surgery were rare. A surgical policy is, however, more costly than continued medical management. At a threshold of 20,000 pounds per QALY it may well be cost-effective, especially when putative longer-term benefits are taken into account, but this is uncertain. The more troublesome the symptoms, the greater the potential benefit from surgery. Uncertainty about cost-effectiveness would be greatly reduced by more reliable information about relative longer-term costs and benefits of surgical and medical policies. This could be through extended follow-up of the REFLUX trial cohorts or of other cohorts of fundoplication patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15517081.

Etanercept and infliximab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness, safety, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of etanercept and infliximab for the treatment of active and progressive psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in patients who have inadequate response to standard treatment, including disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to July 2004.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review evaluated the clinical efficacy and adverse effects of etanercept and infliximab. The efficacy of DMARDs in the treatment of PsA was also reviewed and treatments were compared using Bayesian evidence synthesis methods. Following evaluation of existing economic evaluations of etanercept and infliximab in PsA, a new economic model was developed (the York Model). This utilised the results from the evidence synthesis and data from a range of other sources.

RESULTS

Across the two trials, at 12 weeks, around 65% of patients treated with etanercept achieved an American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 {pooled relative risk (RR) 4.19 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.74 to 6.42]}, demonstrating a basic degree of efficacy in terms of arthritis-related symptoms. In addition, around 45% of patients treated with etanercept achieved an ACR 50 [pooled RR 10.84 (95% CI 4.47 to 26.28)] and around 12% achieved an ACR 70 [pooled RR 16.28 (95% CI 2.20 to 120.54)], demonstrating a good level of efficacy. The subgroup analyses conducted in one trial revealed that the effect of etanercept was not dependent upon patients' concomitant use of methotrexate. In addition, almost 85% of patients treated with etanercept achieved a Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) [pooled RR 2.60 (95% CI 1.96 to 3.45). The Psoriatic Area and Severity Index (PASI) results indicate some beneficial effect on psoriasis at 12 weeks; however, the data are sparse. The statistically significant reduction (improvement) in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score with etanercept compared with placebo indicates a beneficial effect of etanercept on function. Similar results were seen at 24 weeks, except that the results for PASI 75 and PASI 50 now achieved statistical significance and data for Total Sharp Score annualised rate of progression were available; this was statistically significantly lower in etanercept-treated patients than in placebo-treated patients. Uncontrolled follow-up of patients indicates that treatment benefit may be maintained for at least 50 weeks. At 16 weeks, 65% of patients treated with infliximab achieved an ACR 20 [RR 6.80 (95% CI 2.89 to 16.01)], demonstrating a basic degree of efficacy in terms of arthritis-related symptoms. This level of efficacy was not dependent upon patients' concomitant use of methotrexate. Almost half the patients treated with infliximab achieved an ACR 50 [RR 49.00 (95% CI 3.06 to 785.06)] and over one-quarter achieved an ACR 70 [RR 31.00 (95% CI 1.90 to 504.86)] compared with none of the placebo group, demonstrating a good level of efficacy. In addition, 75% of patients treated with infliximab achieved a PsARC [RR 3.55 (95% CI 2.05 to 6.13)]. The beneficial treatment effect on psoriasis was also statistically significant with a mean difference in percentage change from baseline in PASI of -5 (95% CI -6.8 to -3.3), as was the percentage improvement from baseline in HAQ score with infliximab compared with placebo [mean difference 51.4 (95% CI 48.08 to 54.72)], indicating a beneficial effect of infliximab on functional status. Uncontrolled data from all measures of joint disease, psoriasis and HAQ collected up to 50 weeks of follow-up reflect those at 16 weeks. There were no radiographic assessments, so nothing can be determined about the potential or otherwise of infliximab to delay the progression of joint disease. Using the York cost-effectiveness model, infliximab was consistently dominated by etanercept because of its higher acquisition and administration costs without superior effectiveness. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of etanercept compared with palliative care ranged from 14,818 pounds (females, 40-year time horizon) to 49,374 pounds (males, 1-year time horizon) if it is assumed that, when patients eventually fail on biological therapy, their disability (in terms of HAQ score) deteriorates by the same amount as it improved when they initially respond to treatment (rebound equal to gain). Results for etanercept ranged from 25,443 pounds (females, 40-year time horizon) to 49,441 pounds (males, 1-year time horizon) per QALY gained under the assumption that, when patients fail on therapy, their disability level returns to what it would have been had they never responded (rebound equal to natural history).

CONCLUSIONS

The limited data available indicated that etanercept and infliximab are efficacious in the treatment of PsA with beneficial effects on both joint and psoriasis symptoms and on functional status. Short-term data indicated that etanercept can delay joint disease progression, but long-term data are needed. There are no controlled data as yet to indicate that infliximab can delay joint disease progression. Treatment with both etanercept and infliximab for 12 weeks demonstrated a significant degree of efficacy, with no statistically significant difference between them. For both drugs, adverse events were common with mild injection/infusion reactions being the main treatment-related effect. The York model indicated that etanercept is more cost-effective than infliximab as it has a lower cost with little difference in outcomes. The cost-effectiveness of etanercept is also sensitive to assumptions made about the extent of disease progression when patients are responding to therapy. The number of years for which a patient can be safely on biologicals is uncertain so these results should be considered with caution. Further research should include long-term controlled trials to confirm benefits, review adverse events and to explore further the implications of biologic therapy.

Etanercept and efalizumab for the treatment of psoriasis: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness, safety, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of etanercept and efalizumab for the treatment of moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases and several Internet resources were searched up to April 2004.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews were undertaken of the efficacy, safety and economic reviews of etanercept and efalizumab. An existing systematic review of the efficacy and safety of other treatments was also updated. Economic models supplied by the manufacturers of etanercept and efalizumab were critiqued. An economic model was then developed of etanercept and efalizumab in the treatment of moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis.

RESULTS

The review of the clinical evidence identified a total of 39 published and three unpublished studies: eight randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of the efficacy of etanercept (three trials) and efalizumab (five); 10 studies of the adverse effects of the interventions; and 24 RCTs of the efficacy of the other treatments for moderate to severe psoriasis. The trials of the efficacy of the interventions were all double-blind and placebo-controlled trials and generally of good quality, but three of the five efalizumab trials were poorly reported. A total of 1347 patients were included in the etanercept trials and 2963 in the efalizumab trials. Data on the efficacy of etanercept 25 mg twice a week for 12 weeks were available from three RCTs. On average, active treatment resulted in 62% of patients achieving a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 50, 33% achieving a PASI 75, 11% achieving a PASI 90 and 40% were assessed as clear or almost clear. These figures are not adjusted for changes relative to placebo. Improvement in quality of life as assessed by mean percentage change in Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) was around 59% with etanercept 25 mg twice a week compared with 9% with placebo, and all mean differences that could be calculated were statistically significantly in favour of etanercept. Data on the efficacy of etanercept 50 mg twice a week for 12 weeks were available from two RCTs. Across the two trials, the proportion of patients achieving PASI 50, 75 and 90 was 76, 49 and 21%, respectively; the pooled relative risks were all statistically significantly in favour of etanercept. The findings for mean PASI after treatment, mean percentage change in PASI from baseline and mean percentage change in DLQI also demonstrated the efficacy of etanercept treatment. Evidence from one RCT indicates that the response to etanercept is maintained post-treatment, at least in the medium term, and data from uncontrolled follow-up phases reflect and extend these findings. Efalizumab at a dose of 1 mg/kg once a week subcutaneously was studied in five RCTs. Across these trials, 12 weeks of active treatment resulted in an average of 55% of patients achieving PASI 50, 27% PASI 75, 4.3% PASI 90 and 27% clear or minimal psoriasis status. These figures are not adjusted for changes relative to placebo. There is no evidence from RCTs that the response to efalizumab 1 mg/kg once a week is maintained when treatment continues beyond 12 weeks, and long-term follow-up data relate to a range of doses and are poorly reported and so cannot be used to draw even tentative conclusions regarding the long-term efficacy of efalizumab. Uncontrolled data from trial follow-up suggest that time to relapse may be around 60 days. No data indicating the existence or absence of any rebound in psoriasis after discontinuation of efalizumab were identified. There is no evidence relating to the efficacy of efalizumab upon retreatment. A mixed treatment comparison analysis found a higher response rate in terms of PASI 50, 75 and 90 with etanercept than with efalizumab. Injection site reactions appear to be the most common adverse effects of etanercept. Overall, etanercept appears to be well tolerated in short- and long-term use, although many of the long-term data are not from patients with psoriasis. Headache, chills and, to a lesser extent, nausea, myalgia, pain and fever are the common adverse events associated with efalizumab. Overall, withdrawal rates due to adverse events are low. Longer term data for efalizumab are not readily available for evaluation, but the adverse events data up to 3 years appear to reflect those over 12 weeks and to remain stable. Unfortunately, few data for serious infections and serious adverse events with efalizumab are available. For the primary analysis comparing etanercept, efalizumab and supportive care, the results of the York Model suggest that the biological therapies would only be cost-effective for all patients with moderate to severe psoriasis if the NHS were willing to pay over pound 60,000 per QALY gained. In patients with poor baseline quality of life (fourth quartile DLQI), efalizumab, etanercept 25 mg (intermittent), etanercept 25 mg (continuous) and etanercept 50 mg (intermittent) would be cost-effective as part of a treatment sequence if the NHS were willing to pay pound 45,000, pound 35,000, pound 45,000 and pound 65,000 per QALY gained, respectively. In patients who are also at high risk of inpatient hospitalisation (21 days per annum), these therapies would be cost-effective as part of a sequence as long as the NHS were willingness to pay pound 25,000, pound 20,000, pound 25,000 and pound 45,000 per QALY gained, respectively. As part of a secondary analysis including a wider range of systemic therapies as comparators, the York Model found that it would only be cost-effective to use etanercept and efalizumab in a sequence after methotrexate, ciclosporin and Fumaderm.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical trial data indicate that both etanercept and efalizumab are efficacious in patients who are eligible for systemic therapy, but the economic evaluation demonstrates that these biological therapies are likely to be cost-effective only in patients with poor baseline QoL and who are at risk of hospitalisation. Efficacy trials conducted in the specific population for which etanercept and efalizumab are licensed are required, as are long-term comparisons of etanercept and efalizumab with other treatments for moderate to severe psoriasis. Long-term efficacy trials and safety/tolerability data for patients treated with etanercept or efalizumab are required, as are trials on the response of specific subtypes of psoriasis to different drugs. Research on the rate of inpatient hospitalisation in patients with moderate to severe psoriasis is warranted, and the effect of treatment on this rate.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tests for the diagnosis and investigation of urinary tract infection in children: a systematic review and economic model

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of tests for detecting urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under 5 years of age and to evaluate the effectiveness of tests used to investigate further children with confirmed UTI. Also, to evaluate the effectiveness of following up children with UTI and the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and imaging tests for the diagnosis and follow-up of UTI in children under 5. An additional objective was to develop a preliminary diagnostic algorithm for healthcare professionals.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to the end of 2002/early 2003. Consultation with experts in the field.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken using published guidelines and results were analysed according to test grouping: diagnosis of UTI and further investigation of UTI. The cost-effectiveness results from existing evaluations were synthesised. A separate cost-effectiveness model was developed using the best available evidence, in part derived from the results of the systematic review, to illustrate the potential cost-effectiveness of some alternative management strategies in a UK setting. The results of the systematic review were used to propose diagnostic algorithms for the diagnosis and further investigation of UTI in children. Economic analyses did not contribute directly to the development of these algorithms.

RESULTS

The studies included in the review provided very little data on the accuracy of clinical investigations for the diagnosis of UTI, and criteria for clinical suspicion of UTI were not further defined. The majority of studies included in the review found that clean voided midstream urine (CVU) samples had similar accuracy to suprapubic aspiration (SPA) samples when cultured with the advantage of being a non-invasive collection method that can be used in the GP's surgery. Pad, nappy or bag specimens may be appropriate methods for obtaining a urine sample in non-toilet-trained children, although only limited data were available. Although the glucose test was reported to have the highest accuracy in terms of both ruling in and ruling out disease, only a limited number of studies of this test were included and these were conducted over 30 years ago. Dipstick tests are easy to perform in the GP's surgery, give an immediate result and are relatively cheap. The results of the systematic review showed that a dipstick for leucocyte esterase (LE) and nitrite, where both test results are interpreted in combination, was a good test both for ruling in (both positive) and ruling out (both negative) a UTI. A dipstick positive for either LE or nitrite and negative for the other provides inconclusive diagnostic information and further testing is therefore required in these patients. Microscopy is more time consuming and expensive to perform than a dipstick test, but potentially quicker and cheaper than culture. As with dipstick tests, a combination of microscopy for pyuria and bacteriuria can be used accurately to rule in and rule out a UTI. An indeterminate test result is again obtained if microscopy is positive for either pyuria or bacteriuria, and negative for the other. Confirmatory culture is required in these patients. In patients considered to have a UTI, further culture to determine antibiotic sensitivities may be an option to inform treatment decisions. Only one study satisfied the inclusion criteria of the economic review and the review highlighted a number of potential limitations of this study for NHS decision-making. A separate decision-analytic model was therefore developed to provide a more reliable estimate of the optimal strategy regarding the diagnosis and further investigation of children under 5 with suspected UTI from the perspective of the NHS. The economic model found that the optimal diagnostic strategy for children presenting with symptoms suggestive of UTI depends on a number of key factors. These included the relevant subgroup of children concerned, in terms of gender and age, and the health service's maximum willingness to pay for an additional quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the systematic review were used to derive an algorithm for the diagnosis of UTI in children under 5. This algorithm represents the conclusions of the review in terms of effective practice. There were insufficient data to propose an algorithm for the further investigation of UTI in children under 5. The quality assessment highlighted several areas that could be improved upon in future diagnostic accuracy studies.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the initial medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome: systematic review and decision-analytical modelling

OBJECTIVES

To identify and prioritise key areas of clinical uncertainty regarding the medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in current UK practice.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases. Consultations with clinical advisors. Postal survey of cardiologists.

REVIEW METHODS

Potential areas of important uncertainty were identified and 'decision problems' prioritised. A systematic literature review was carried out using standard methods. The constructed decision model consisted of a short-term phase that applied the results of the systematic review and a long-term phase that included relevant information from a UK observational study to extrapolate estimated costs and effects. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the dependence of the results on baseline parameters, using alternative data sources. Expected value of information analysis was undertaken to estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision problem. This provided an upper bound on the monetary value associated with additional research in the area.

RESULTS

Seven current areas of clinical uncertainty (decision problems) in the drug treatment of unstable angina patients were identified. The agents concerned were clopidogrel, low molecular weight heparin, hirudin and intravenous glycoprotein antagonists (GPAs). Twelve published clinical guidelines for unstable angina or non-ST elevation ACS were identified, but few contained recommendations about the specified decision problems. The postal survey of clinicians showed that the greatest disagreement existed for the use of small molecule GPAs, and the greatest uncertainty existed for decisions relating to the use of abciximab (a large molecule GPA). Overall, decision problems concerning the GPA class of drugs were considered to be the highest priority for further study. Selected papers describing the clinical efficacy of treatment were divided into three groups, each representing an alternative strategy. The strategy involving the use of GPAs as part of the initial medical management of all non-ST elevation ACS was the optimal choice, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 5738 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with no use of GPAs. Stochastic analysis showed that if the health service is willing to pay 10,000 pounds per additional QALY, the probability of this strategy being cost-effective was around 82%, increasing to 95% at a threshold of 50,000 pounds per QALY. A sensitivity analysis including an additional strategy of using GPAs as part of initial medical management only in patients at particular high risk (as defined by age, ST depression or diabetes) showed that this additional strategy was yet more cost-effective, with an ICER of 3996 pounds per QALY compared with no treatment with GPA. Value of information analysis suggested that there was considerable merit in additional research to reduce the level of uncertainty in the optimal decision. At a threshold of 10,000 pounds per QALY, the maximum potential value of such research in the base case was calculated as 12.7 million pounds per annum for the UK as a whole. Taking account of the greater uncertainty in the sensitivity analyses including clopidogrel, this figure was increased to approximately 50 million pounds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests the use of GPAs in all non-ST elevation ACS patients as part of their initial medical management. Sensitivity analysis showed that virtually all of the benefit could be realised by treating only high-risk patients. Further clarification of the optimum role of GPAs in the UK NHS depends on the availability of further high-quality observational and trial data. Value of information analysis derived from the model suggests that a relatively large investment in such research may be worthwhile. Further research should focus on the identification of the characteristics of patients who benefit most from GPAs as part of medical management, the comparison of GPAs with clopidogrel as an adjunct to standard care, follow-up cohort studies of the costs and outcomes of high-risk non-ST elevation ACS over several years, and exploring how clinicians' decisions combine a normative evidence-based decision model with their own personal behavioural perspective.

Is hydrotherapy cost-effective? A randomised controlled trial of combined hydrotherapy programmes compared with physiotherapy land techniques in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effects of combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy (combined) with land-based physiotherapy only (land) on cost, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and outcome of disease in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Also to determine the cost-effectiveness of combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy in JIA.

DESIGN

A multicentre randomised controlled, partially blinded trial was designed with 100 patients in a control arm receiving land-based physiotherapy only (land group) and 100 patients in an intervention arm receiving a combination of hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy (combined group).

SETTING

Three tertiary centres in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 4-19 years diagnosed more than 3 months with idiopathic arthritides, onset before their 16th birthday, stable on medication with at least one active joint.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients in the combined and land groups received 16 1-hour treatment sessions over 2 weeks followed by local physiotherapy attendances for 2 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Disease improvement defined as a decrease of > or =30% in any three of six core set variables without there being a 30% increase in more than one of the remaining three variables was used as the primary outcome measure and assessed at 2 months following completion of intervention. Health services resource use (in- and outpatient care, GP visits, drugs, interventions, and investigations) and productivity costs (parents' time away from paid work) were collected at 6 months follow-up. HRQoL was measured at baseline and 2 and 6 months following intervention using the EQ-5D, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Secondary outcome measures at 2 and 6 months included cardiovascular fitness, pain, isometric muscle strength and patient satisfaction.

RESULTS

Seventy-eight patients were recruited into the trial and received treatment. Two months after intervention 47% patients in the combined group and 61% patients in the land group had improved disease with 11 and 5% with worsened disease, respectively. The analysis showed no significant differences in mean costs and QALYs between the two groups. The combined group had slightly lower mean costs (-6.91 pounds Sterling) and lower mean QALYs (-0.0478, 95% confidence interval -0.11294 to 0.0163 based on 1000 bootstrap replications). All secondary measures demonstrated a mean improvement in both groups, with the combined group showing greater improvements in physical aspects of HRQoL and cardiovascular fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

JIA is a disease in which a cure is not available. This research demonstrates a beneficial effect from both combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy treatment and land-based physiotherapy treatment alone in JIA without any exacerbation of disease, indicating that treatments are safe. The caveat to the results of the cost-effectiveness and clinical efficacy analysis is that the restricted sample size could have prevented a true difference being detected between the groups. Nevertheless, there appears to be no evidence to justify the costs of building pools or initiating new services specifically for use in this disease. However, this conclusion may not apply to patients with unremitting active disease who could not be entered into the trial because of specified exclusion criteria. For this group, hydrotherapy or combined treatment may still be the only physiotherapy option. Further research is suggested into: the investigation and development of appropriate and sensitive outcome measures for use in future hydrotherapy and physiotherapy trials of JIA; preliminary studies of methodologies in complex interventions such as physiotherapy and hydrotherapy to improve recruitment and ensure protocol is acceptable to patients and carers; hydrotherapy in the most common paediatric user group, children with neurological dysfunction, ensuring appropriate outcome measures are available and methodologies previously tried; patient satisfaction and compliance in land-based physiotherapy and hydrotherapy and European studies of hydrotherapy in rare disorders such as JIA.

Clinical effectiveness, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of newer drugs for epilepsy in adults: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To examine the clinical effectiveness, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of gabapentin (GBP), lamotrigine (LTG), levetiracetam (LEV), oxcarbazepine (OXC), tiagabine (TGB), topiramate (TPM) and vigabatrin (VGB) for epilepsy in adults.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases. Internet resources. Pharmaceutical company submissions.

REVIEW METHODS

Selected studies were screened and quality assessed. Separate analyses assessed clinical effectiveness, serious, rare and long-term adverse events and cost-effectiveness. An integrated economic analysis incorporating information on costs and effects of newer and older antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) was performed to give direct comparisons of long-term costs and benefits.

RESULTS

A total of 212 studies were included in the review. All included systematic reviews were Cochrane reviews and of good quality. The quality of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was variable. Assessment was hampered by poor reporting of methods of randomisation, allocation concealment and blinding. Few of the non-randomised studies were of good quality. The main weakness of the economic evaluations was inappropriate use of the cost-minimisation design. The included systematic reviews reported that newer AEDs were effective as adjunctive therapy compared to placebo. For newer versus older drugs, data were available for all three monotherapy AEDs, although data for OXC and TPM were limited. There was limited, poor-quality evidence of a significant improvement in cognitive function with LTG and OXC compared with older AEDs. However, there were no consistent statistically significant differences in other clinical outcomes, including proportion of seizure-free patients. No studies assessed effectiveness of AEDs in people with intellectual disabilities or in pregnant women. There was very little evidence to assess the effectiveness of AEDs in the elderly; no significant differences were found between LTG and carbamazepine monotherapy. Sixty-seven RCTs compared adjunctive therapy with placebo, older AEDs or other newer AEDs. For newer AEDs versus placebo, a trend was observed in favour of newer drugs, and there was evidence of statistically significant differences in proportion of responders favouring newer drugs. However, it was not possible to assess long-term effectiveness. Most trials were conducted in patients with partial seizures. For newer AEDs versus older drugs, there was no evidence to assess the effectiveness of LEV, LTG or OXC, and evidence for other newer drugs was limited to single studies. Trials only included patients with partial seizures and follow-up was relatively short. There was no evidence to assess effectiveness of adjunctive LEV, OXC or TPM versus other newer drugs, and there were no time to event or cognitive data. No studies assessed the effectiveness of adjunctive AEDs in the elderly or pregnant women. There was some evidence from one study (GBP versus LTG) that both drugs have some beneficial effect on behaviour in people with learning disabilities. Eighty RCTs reported the incidence of adverse events. There was no consistent or convincing evidence to draw any conclusions concerning relative safety and tolerability of newer AEDs compared with each other, older AEDs or placebo. The integrated economic analysis for monotherapy for newly diagnosed patients with partial seizures showed that older AEDs were more likely to be cost-effective, although there was considerable uncertainty in these results. The integrated analysis suggested that newer AEDs used as adjunctive therapy for refractory patients with partial seizures were more effective and more costly than continuing with existing treatment alone. Combination therapy, involving new AEDs, may be cost-effective at a threshold willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) greater than 20,000 pounds, depending on patients' previous treatment history. There was, again, considerable uncertainty in these results. There were few data available to determine effectiveness of treatments for patients with generalised seizures. LTG and VPA showed similar health benefits when used as monotherapy. VPA was less costly and was likely to be cost-effective. The analysis indicated that TPM might be cost-effective when used as an adjunctive therapy, with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 34,500 pounds compared with continuing current treatment alone.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little good-quality evidence from clinical trials to support the use of newer monotherapy or adjunctive therapy AEDs over older drugs, or to support the use of one newer AED in preference to another. In general, data relating to clinical effectiveness, safety and tolerability failed to demonstrate consistent and statistically significant differences between the drugs. The exception was comparisons between newer adjunctive AEDs and placebo, where significant differences favoured newer AEDs. However, trials often had relatively short-term treatment durations and often failed to limit recruitment to either partial or generalised onset seizures, thus limiting the applicability of the data. Newer AEDs, used as monotherapy, may be cost-effective for the treatment of patients who have experienced adverse events with older AEDs, who have failed to respond to the older drugs, or where such drugs are contraindicated. The integrated economic analysis also suggested that newer AEDs used as adjunctive therapy may be cost-effective compared with the continuing current treatment alone given a QALY of about 20,000 pounds. There is a need for more direct comparisons of the different AEDs within clinical trials, considering different treatment sequences within both monotherapy and adjunctive therapy. Length of follow-up also needs to be considered. Trials are needed that recruit patients with either partial or generalised seizures; that investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in patients with generalised onset seizures and that investigate effectiveness in specific populations of epilepsy patients, as well as studies evaluating cognitive outcomes to use more stringent testing protocols and to adopt a more consistent approach in assessing outcomes. Further research is also required to assess the quality of life within trials of epilepsy therapy using preference-based measures of outcomes that generate cost-effectiveness data. Future RCTs should use CONSORT guidelines; and observational data to provide information on the use of AEDs in actual practice, including details of treatment sequences and doses.

Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment

OBJECTIVES

To identify existing guidelines and develop a synthesised guideline plus accompanying checklist. In addition to provide guidance on key theoretical, methodological and practical issues and consider the implications of this research for what might be expected of future decision-analytic models.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of existing good practice guidelines was undertaken to identify and summarise guidelines currently available for assessing the quality of decision-analytic models that have been undertaken for health technology assessment. A synthesised good practice guidance and accompanying checklist was developed. Two specific methods areas in decision modelling were considered. The first method's topic is the identification of parameter estimates from published literature. Parameter searches were developed and piloted using a case-study model. The second topic relates to bias in parameter estimates; that is, how to adjust estimates of treatment effect from observational studies where there are risks of selection bias. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify those studies looking at quantification of bias in parameter estimates and the implication of this bias.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed and consolidated into a single set of brief statements of good practice. From this, a checklist was developed and applied to three independent decision-analytic models. Although the checklist provided excellent guidance on some key issues for model evaluation, it was too general to pick up on the specific nuances of each model. The searches that were developed helped to identify important data for inclusion in the model. However, the quality of life searches proved to be problematic: the published search filters did not focus on those measures specific to cost-effectiveness analysis and although the strategies developed as part of this project were more successful few data were found. Of the 11 studies meeting the criteria on the effect of selection bias, five concluded that a non-randomised trial design is associated with bias and six studies found 'similar' estimates of treatment effects from observational studies or non-randomised clinical trials and randomised controlled trials (RCTs). One purpose of developing the synthesised guideline and checklist was to provide a framework for critical appraisal by the various parties involved in the health technology assessment process. First, the guideline and checklist can be used by groups that are reviewing other analysts' models and, secondly, the guideline and checklist could be used by the various analysts as they develop their models (to use it as a check on how they are developing and reporting their analyses). The Expert Advisory Group (EAG) that was convened to discuss the potential role of the guidance and checklist felt that, in general, the guidance and checklist would be a useful tool, although the checklist is not meant to be used exclusively to determine a model's quality, and so should not be used as a substitute for critical appraisal.

CONCLUSIONS

The review of current guidelines showed that although authors may provide a consistent message regarding some aspects of modelling, in other areas conflicting attributes are presented in different guidelines. In general, the checklist appears to perform well, in terms of identifying those aspects of the model that should be of particular concern to the reader. The checklist cannot, however, provide answers to the appropriateness of the model structure and structural assumptions, as these may be seen as a general problem with generic checklists and do not reflect any shortcoming with the synthesised guidance and checklist developed here. The assessment of the checklist, as well as feedback from the EAG, indicated the importance of its use in conjunction with a more general checklist or guidelines on economic evaluation. Further methods research into the following areas would be valuable: the quantification of selection bias in non-controlled studies and in controlled observational studies; the level of bias in the different non-RCT study designs; a comparison of results from RCTs with those from other non-randomised studies; assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of alternative ways to adjust for bias in a decision model; and how to prioritise searching for parameter estimates.

A randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost of a patient orientated self management approach to chronic inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES

We developed a patient centred approach to chronic disease self management by providing information designed to promote patient choice. We then conducted a randomised controlled trial of the approach in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to assess whether it could alter clinical outcome and affect health service use.

DESIGN

A multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in the outpatient departments of 19 hospitals with randomisation by treatment centre, 10 control sites, and nine intervention sites. For patients at intervention sites, an individual self management plan was negotiated and written information provided.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 700 patients with established inflammatory bowel disease were recruited.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Main outcome measures recorded at one year were: quality of life, health service resource use, and patient satisfaction. Secondary outcomes included measures of enablement-confidence to cope with the condition.

RESULTS

One year following the intervention, self managing patients had made fewer hospital visits (difference -1.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.43 to -0.65); p<0.001) without increase in the number of primary care visits, and quality of life was maintained without evidence of anxiety about the programme. The two groups were similar with respect to satisfaction with consultations. Immediately after the initial consultation, those who had undergone self management training reported greater confidence in being able to cope with their condition (difference 0.90 (95% CI 0.12-1.68); p<0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Adoption of this approach for the management of chronic disease such as IBD in the NHS and other managed health care organisations would considerably reduce health provision costs and benefit disease control.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel and modified-release dipyridamole in the secondary prevention of occlusive vascular events: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To examine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two alternative antiplatelet agents, clopidogrel and modified-release (MR)-dipyridamole, relative to prophylactic doses of aspirin for the secondary prevention of occlusive vascular events.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases.

REVIEW METHODS

A total of 2906 titles and abstracts were rigorously screened and 441 studies were assessed in detail. Two RCTs were identified. For the assessment of cost-effectiveness, eight reviews were identified. The results were presented in structured tables and as a narrative summary. No additional clinical effectiveness data were presented in either of two company submissions. All economic evaluations (including accompanying models) included in the company submissions were assessed. Following this analysis, if the existing models (company or published) were not sufficient, a de novo model or modified versions of the models were developed.

RESULTS

In the CAPRIE trial the point estimate for the primary outcome, i.e. ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) or vascular death, favoured clopidogrel over aspirin, but the boundaries of the confidence intervals raise the possibility that clopidogrel is not more beneficial than aspirin. In terms of the secondary outcomes reported, there was a non-significant trend in favour of clopidogrel over aspirin but the boundaries of the confidence intervals on the relative risks all crossed unity. There was no difference in the number of patients ever reporting any bleeding disorder in the clopidogrel group compared with the aspirin group. The incidences of rash and diarrhoea were statistically significantly higher in the clopidogrel group than the aspirin group. Patients in the aspirin group had a higher incidence of indigestion/nausea/vomiting than patients in the clopidogrel group. Haematological adverse events were rare in both the clopidogrel and aspirin groups. No cases of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura were reported in either group. Treatment with MR-dipyridamole alone did not significantly reduce the risk of any of the primary outcomes reported in ESPS-2 compared with treatment with aspirin. ASA-MR-dipyridamole was significantly more effective than aspirin alone in patients with stroke or transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) at reducing the outcome of stroke and marginally more effective at reducing stroke and/or death. Treatment with ASA-MR-dipyridamole did not statistically significantly reduce the risk of death compared to treatment with aspirin. The number of strokes was statistically significantly reduced in the ASA-MR-dipyridamole group compared with the MR-dipyridamole group. In terms of the other primary outcomes, stroke and/or death and death, the results favoured treatment with ASA-MR-dipyridamole but the findings were not statistically significant. There was no difference in the number of bleeding complications between the ASA-MR-dipyridamole and aspirin groups. The incidence of bleeding complications was significantly lower in the MR-dipyridamole treatment group. More patients in the MR-dipyridamole treatment groups experienced headaches compared to patients receiving treatment with aspirin alone. The York model assessed the cost-effectiveness of differing combinations of treatment strategies in four patient subgroups, under a number of different scenarios. The results of the model were sensitive to the assumptions made in the alternative scenarios, in particular the impact of therapy on non-vascular deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Clopidogrel was marginally more effective than aspirin at reducing the risk of ischaemic stroke, MI or vascular death in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease, however, it did not statistically significantly reduce the risk of vascular death or death from any cause compared with aspirin. There was no statistically significant difference in the number of bleeding complications experienced in the clopidogrel and aspirin groups. MR-dipyridamole in combination with aspirin was superior to aspirin alone at reducing the risk of stroke and marginally more effective at reducing the risk of stroke and/or death. Compared with treatment with MR-dipyridamole alone, MR-dipyridamole in combination with aspirin significantly reduced the risk of stroke. Treatment with MR-dipyridamole in combination with aspirin did not statistically significantly reduce the risk of death compared with aspirin. Compared with treatment with MR-dipyridamole alone, bleeding complications were statistically significantly higher in patients treated with aspirin and MR-dipyridamole in combination with aspirin. Due to the assumptions that have to be made, no conclusions could be drawn about the relative effectiveness of MR-dipyridamole, alone or in combination with aspirin, and clopidogrel from the adjusted indirect comparison. The following would apply for a cost of up to GBP20,000-40,000 per additional quality-adjusted life-year. For the stroke and TIA subgroups, ASA-MR-dipyridamole would be the most cost-effective therapy given a 2-year treatment duration as long as all patients were not left disabled by their initial (qualifying) stroke. For a lifetime treatment duration, ASA-MR-dipyridamole would be considered more cost-effective than aspirin as long as treatment effects on non-vascular deaths are not considered and all patients were not left disabled by their initial stroke. In patients left disabled by their initial stroke, aspirin is the most cost-effective therapy. Clopidogrel and MR-dipyridamole alone would not be considered cost-effective under any scenario. For the MI and peripheral arterial disease subgroups, clopidogrel would be considered cost-effective for a treatment duration of 2 years. For a lifetime treatment duration, clopidogrel would be considered more cost-effective than aspirin as long as treatment effects on non-vascular deaths are not considered. It is suggested that the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin should be evaluated for the secondary prevention of occlusive vascular events. Also randomised, direct comparisons of clopidogrel and MR-dipyridamole in combination with aspirin are required to inform the treatment of patients with a history of stroke and TIA, plus trials that compare treatment with clopidogrel and MR-dipyridamole for the secondary prevention of vascular events in patients who demonstrate a genuine intolerance to aspirin.

Clopidogrel used in combination with aspirin compared with aspirin alone in the treatment of non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndromes: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To review systematically the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel used in combination with standard therapy including aspirin, compared with standard therapy alone for the treatment of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases. Manufacturers' submissions.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies were selected using rigorous criteria. The quality of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was assessed according to criteria based on NHS CRD Report No. 4, and the quality of systematic reviews was assessed according to the guidelines for the Database of Reviews of Effect (DARE) criteria. The quality of economic evaluations was assessed according to a specifically tailored checklist. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel in combination with standard therapy compared with standard therapy alone were synthesised through a narrative review with full tabulation of the results of the included studies. In the economic evaluations, a cost-effectiveness model was constructed using the best available evidence to determine cost-effectiveness in a UK setting.

RESULTS

One RCT (the CURE trial) was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of high quality and showed that clopidogrel in addition to aspirin was significantly more effective than placebo plus aspirin in patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS for the composite outcome of death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke over the 9-month treatment period. However, clopidogrel was associated with a significantly higher number of episodes of both major and minor bleeding. The results from the five systematic reviews that assessed the adverse events associated with long-term aspirin use showed that aspirin was associated with a significantly higher incidence of haemorrhagic stroke, extracranial haemorrhage and gastrointestinal haemorrhage compared with placebo. Of the cost-effectiveness evidence reviewed, only the manufacturer's submission was considered relevant from the perspective of the NHS. The review of this evidence highlighted potential limitations within the submission in its use of data and in the model structure used. These limitations led to the development of a new model with the aim of providing a more reliable estimate of the cost-effectiveness from the perspective of the UK NHS. This model indicated that clopidogrel appears cost-effective compared with standard care alone in patients with non-ST-elevation ACS as long as the NHS is willing to pay GBP6078 per quality of life year (QALY). The results were most sensitive to the inclusion of additional strategies that assessed alternative treatment durations with clopidogrel. Although treatment with clopidogrel for 12 months remained cost-effective for the overall cohort, provisional findings indicate that the shorter treatment durations may be more cost-effective in patients at low risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the CURE trial indicate that clopidogrel in combination with aspirin was significantly more effective than placebo combined with aspirin in a wide range of patients with ACS. This benefit was largely related to a reduction in Q-wave myocardial infarction. There was no statistically significant benefit in relation to mortality. The trial data suggested that a substantial part of the benefit derived from clopidogrel is achieved by 3 months, with a further small benefit over the remaining 9 months of chronic treatment. The results from the base-case model suggest that treatment with clopidogrel as an adjunct to standard therapy (including aspirin) for 12 months, compared with standard therapy alone, is cost-effective in non-ST elevation ACS patients as long as the health service is willing to pay GBP6078 per additional QALY. However, although treatment with clopidogrel for 12 months remained cost-effective for the overall cohort, provisional findings indicate that the shorter treatment durations may be more cost-effective in patients at low risk. To estimate the exact length of time that clopidogrel in addition to standard therapy should be prescribed for patients with non-ST-segment ACS would require a prospective trial that randomised patients to various durations of therapy. This would accurately assess whether a 'rebound' phenomenon occurs in patients if clopidogrel were stopped after 3 months of treatment.

A rapid and systematic review and economic evaluation of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of newer drugs for treatment of mania associated with bipolar affective disorder

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of quetiapine, olanzapine and valproate semisodium in the treatment of mania associated with bipolar disorder.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases; industry submissions made to the National Institute for Clinical Excellence.

REVIEW METHODS

Randomised trials and economic evaluations that evaluated the effectiveness of quetiapine, olanzapine or valproate semisodium in the treatment of mania associated with bipolar disorder were selected for inclusion. Data were extracted by one reviewer into a Microsoft Access database and checked for quality and accuracy by a second. The quality of the cost-effectiveness studies was assessed using a checklist updated from that developed by Drummond and colleagues. Relative risk and mean difference data were presented as Forest plots but only pooled where this made sense clinically and statistically. Studies were grouped by drug and, within each drug, by comparator used. Chi-squared tests of heterogeneity were performed for the outcomes if pooling was indicated. A probabilistic model was developed to estimate costs from the perspective of the NHS, and health outcomes in terms of response rate, based on an improvement of at least 50% in a patient's baseline manic symptoms derived from an interview-based mania assessment scale. The model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the alternative drugs when used as part of treatment for the acute manic episode only.

RESULTS

Eighteen randomised trials met the inclusion criteria. Aspects of three of the quetiapine studies were commercial-in-confidence. The quality of the included trials was limited and overall, key methodological criteria were not met in most trials. Quetiapine, olanzapine and valproate semisodium appear superior to placebo in reducing manic symptoms, but may cause side-effects. There appears to be little difference between these treatments and lithium in terms of effectiveness, but quetiapine is associated with somnolence and weight gain, whereas lithium is associated with tremor. Olanzapine as adjunct therapy to mood stabilisers may be more effective than placebo in reducing mania and improving global health, but it is associated with more dry mouth, somnolence, weight gain, increased appetite, tremor and speech disorder. There was little difference between these treatments and haloperidol in reducing mania, but haloperidol was associated with more extrapyramidal side-effects and negative implications for health-related quality of life. Intramuscular olanzapine and lorazepam were equally effective and safe in one very short (24 hour) trial. Valproate semisodium and carbamazepine were equally effective and safe in one small trial in children. Olanzapine may be more effective than valproate semisodium in reducing mania, but was associated with more dry mouth, increased appetite, oedema, somnolence, speech disorder, Parkinson-like symptoms and weight gain. Valproate semisodium was associated with more nausea than olanzapine. The results from the base-case analysis demonstrate that choice of optimal strategy is dependent on the maximum that the health service is prepared to pay per additional responder. For a figure of less than 7179 British pounds per additional responder, haloperidol is the optimal decision; for a spend in excess of this, it would be olanzapine. Under the most favourable scenario in relation to the costs of responders and non-responders beyond the 3-week period considered in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of olanzapine is reduced to 1236 British pounds.

CONCLUSIONS

In comparison with placebo, quetiapine, olanzapine and valproate semisodium appear superior in reducing manic symptoms, but all drugs are associated with adverse events. In comparison with lithium, no significant differences were found between the three drugs in terms of effectiveness, and all were associated with adverse events. Several limitations of the cost-effectiveness analysis exist, which inevitably means that the results should be treated with some caution. There remains a need for well-conducted, randomised, double-blind head-to-head comparisons of drugs used in the treatment of mania associated with bipolar disorder and their cost-effectiveness. Participant demographic, diagnostic characteristics, the treatment of mania in children, the use of adjunctive therapy and long-term safety issues in the elderly population, and acute and long-term treatment are also subjects for further study.

A pilot study on the use of decision theory and value of information analysis as part of the NHS Health Technology Assessment programme

OBJECTIVES

To demonstrate the benefits of using appropriate decision-analytic methods and value of information analysis (DA-VOI). Also to establish the feasibility and implications of applying these methods to inform the prioritisation process of the NHS Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme, and possibly extending their use therein.

DATA SOURCES

Three research topics that were considered by the HTA panels in the September 2002 and February 2003 prioritisation rounds.

REVIEW METHODS

A brief and non-technical overview of DA-VOI methods was circulated to the panels and Prioritisation Strategy Group (PSG). For each case study the results were presented to the panels and the PSG in the form of brief case-study reports. Feedback on the DA-VOI analysis and its presentation was obtained in the form of completed questionnaires from panel members, and reports from panel senior lecturers and PSG members.

RESULTS

Although none of the research topics identified met all of the original selection criteria for inclusion as case studies in the pilot, it was possible to construct appropriate decision-analytic models and conduct probabilistic analysis for each topic. In each case, the tasks were completed within the time-frame required by the existing HTA research prioritisation process. The brief case-study reports provided a description of the decision problem, a summary of the current evidence base and a characterisation of decision uncertainty in the form of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Estimates of value of information for the decision problem were presented for relevant patient groups and clinical settings, as well as the value of information associated with particular model inputs. The implications for the value of research in each of the areas were presented in general terms. Details were also provided on what the analysis suggested regarding the design of any future research in terms of features such as the relevant patient groups and comparators, and whether experimental design was likely to be required.

CONCLUSIONS

The pilot study showed that, even with very short timelines, it is possible to undertake DA-VOI that can feed into the priority-setting process that has been developed for the HTA programme. There are however a number of areas that need to be established at the beginning of the process, such as clarification of the nature of the decision problem for which additional research is being considered, explicitness about which existing data should be used and how data that exhibit particular weaknesses should be down-weighted in the analysis. Other areas, including optimum application of researcher time, integrating the vignette (a summary of the clinical problem and existing evidence) and the use of DA-VOI, training, use of sensitivity analyses, and deployment of clinical expertise, are also considered in terms of the potential implementation of DA-VOI within the HTA programme. Recommendations for further research include how literature searching should focus on those variables to which the model's results are most sensitive and with the highest expected value of perfect information; methods of evidence synthesis (multiple parameter synthesis) to consider the evidence surrounding multiple comparators and networks of evidence; and ways in which the value of sample information can be used by the NHS HTA programme and other research funders to decide on the most efficient design of new evaluative research. There is also a need for an analytical framework to be developed that can jointly address the question of whether additional resources would better be devoted to additional research or interventions to change clinical practice.

EVALUATE hysterectomy trial: a multicentre randomised trial comparing abdominal, vaginal and laparoscopic methods of hysterectomy

OBJECTIVES

To test the null hypothesis of no significant difference between laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH), abdominal hysterectomy (AH) and vaginal hysterectomy (VH) with regard to each of the outcome measures of the trial, and also to assess the cost-effectiveness of the alternatives.

DESIGN

Patients were allocated to either the vaginal or abdominal trial by the individual surgeon according to their usual clinical practice. After allocation patients were then randomised to receive either LH or the default procedure in an unbalanced 2:1 manner.

SETTING

Forty-three surgeons from 28 centres throughout the UK and two centres in South Africa took part in the study.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with gynaecological symptoms that, in the opinion of the gynaecologist and the patient, justified hysterectomy.

INTERVENTIONS

Of 1380 patients recruited to the study, 876 were included in the AH trial and 504 in the VH trial. In the AH trial, 584 patients had a laparoscopic type of hysterectomy (designated ALH) and 292 had a standard AH. In the VH trial 336 had a VLH and 168 had a standard VH. A cost--utility analysis was undertaken based on a 1-year time horizon. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated using the EQ-5D.

RESULTS

Compared with AH, LH was associated with a higher rate of major complications, less postoperative pain and shorter hospital stay, but took longer to perform. Securing the ovarian pedicles with laparoscopic sutures was used in only 7% of cases but was associated with 25% of the complications. At the 6 weeks postoperative point, ALH was associated with a significantly better physical component of the SF-12 (QoL questionnaire), better body image scale scores and a significantly increased frequency of sexual intercourse than AH. These differences were not observed at either 4 or 12 months after surgery. There were no significant differences in any measured outcome between LH and VH except that VLH took longer to perform and was associated with a higher rate of detecting unexpected pathology. Compared with VH, VLH had a higher mean cost per patient of GBP401 and higher mean QALYs of 0.0015, resulting in an incremental cost per QALY gained of GBP267,333. The probability that VLH is cost-effective was less than 50% for a large range of willingness to pay values for an additional QALY. Compared with AH, ALH had a higher mean cost per patient of GBP186 and higher mean QALYs of 0.007, resulting in an incremental cost per QALY gained of GBP26,571.

CONCLUSIONS

ALH is associated with a significantly higher risk of major complications and takes longer to perform than AH. ALH is, however, associated with less pain, quicker recovery and better short-term QoL after surgery than AH. The cost-effectiveness of ALH is finely balanced and is also influenced by the choice of reusable versus disposable equipment. Individual surgeons must decide between patient-orientated benefits and the risk of severe complications. VLH was not cost-effective relative to VH. Recommendations for future research include the application and relevance of QoL measures following hysterectomy, and long-term follow-up; patient preferences; reducing complication rates; improving gynaecological surgical training; surgeon effect in surgery trials; care pathways for hysterectomy; additional pathology identification in LH and meta-analysis/further trial of VH versus LH.

A randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of a package comprising a patient-orientated, evidence-based self-help guidebook and patient-centred consultations on disease management and satisfaction in inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES

To determine if a whole systems approach to self-management improves clinical outcomes and leads to cost-effective use of NHS services.

DESIGN

Nineteen hospitals were randomised to 10 control sites and nine intervention sites. Consultants from intervention sites received training in patient-centred care before recruitment and introduced the intervention to eligible patients. Patients at the control sites were recruited and went on to have an ordinary consultation. Qualitative interviews were undertaken to obtain an in-depth understanding of patients' and consultants' experience of the intervention.

SETTING

Follow-up outpatient clinics at 19 hospitals in the north-west of England.

PARTICIPANTS

Seven hundred patients (297 at intervention sites and 403 at control sites) with established ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, aged 16 years and over, and able to write in English.

INTERVENTIONS

Consultants were trained to provide a patient-centred approach to care. Guidebooks on ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were developed with patients prior to the study. Patients prepared a written self-management plan and self-referred to services based on a self-evaluation of their need for advice.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of hospital outpatient consultation, quality of life (QoL) and acceptability to patients. Health service resource use and assessed cost effectiveness using the EQ-5D.

RESULTS

After 1 year, the intervention resulted in fewer hospital visits, without change in the number of primary care visits. Patients felt more able to cope with their condition. The intervention produced no reduction in QoL and did not raise anxiety. The intervention group reported fewer symptom relapses; 74% of patients in the intervention group indicated a preference to continue the system. Qualitative results showed the guidebook was effective but organisational limitations constrained patient-centred aspects of the intervention for some. Cost-effectiveness analyses favoured self-management over standard care.

CONCLUSIONS

Further use of this method in chronic disease management seems likely to improve overall patient satisfaction and reduce health expenditure without evidence of adverse effect on disease control. Further attention needs to be given to self-referral and access arrangements and a re-distribution of control to patients through increased adherence to patient-centred norms on the part of consultants. Future research is recommended to evaluate the operating systems within secondary and primary care that would allow self-managers to self-refer and to keep them informed of new treatments, also to explore models for training health professionals in self-care methods, to study long-term effects of self-management in chronic disease and to transfer this approach to other chronic conditions.