Carcinogenic response and other histopathological alterations in mice exposed to cigarette smoke for varying time periods after birth

In spite of the outstanding role of tobacco smoking in human carcinogenesis, it is difficult to reproduce its effects in experimental animals. Based on the knowledge that a variety of mechanisms account for a higher susceptibility to carcinogens early in life, we have developed a murine model in which mainstream cigarette smoke becomes convincingly carcinogenic. The standard model involves exposure to smoke for 4 months, starting after birth, followed by an additional 3-4 months in filtered air. We evaluated herein the time- and dose-dependent response, at 7.5 months of life, of Swiss H mice that had been exposed to smoke for either 1, 2 or 4 months after birth. A one-month exposure, corresponding to a period of intense alveolarization, was sufficient to induce most inflammatory, degenerative and preneoplastic pulmonary lesions, including emphysema and alveolar epithelial hyperplasia, blood vessel proliferation and hemangiomas, reflecting an early proangiogenic role of smoking, and microadenomas bearing ki-67-positive proliferating cells as well as urinary bladder epithelial hyperplasia. Two months of exposure were needed to induce pulmonary adenomas and urinary bladder papillomas in males only, which highlights a protective role of estrogens in urinary bladder carcinogenesis. Four months, which in humans would correspond to the postnatal period, puberty, adolescence and early adulthood, were needed to induce other lesions, including tubular epithelial hyperplasia of kidney, bronchial epithelial hyperplasia and especially pulmonary malignant tumors. These findings highlight the concept that preneoplastic and neoplastic lesions occurring in adulthood can be induced by exposure to smoke early in life.

Interactions between ethanol and cigarette smoke in a mouse lung carcinogenesis model

Both ethanol and cigarette smoke are classified as human carcinogens. They can synergize, especially in tissues of the upper aerodigestive tract that are targeted by both agents. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the individual and combined effects of ethanol and smoke in the respiratory tract, either following transplacental exposure and/or postnatal exposure. We designed two consecutive studies in mouse models by exposing Swiss H mice to oral ethanol and/or inhaled mainstream cigarette smoke for up to 4 months, at various prenatal and postnatal life stages. Clastogenic effects and histopathological alterations were evaluated after 4 and 8 months, respectively. Ethanol was per se devoid of clastogenic effects in mouse peripheral blood erythrocytes. However, especially in mice exposed both transplacentally throughout pregnancy and in the postnatal life, ethanol administration was associated not only with liver damage but also with pro-angiogenetic effects in the lung by stimulating the proliferation of blood vessels. In addition, these mice developed pulmonary emphysema, alveolar epithelial hyperplasias, microadenomas, and benign tumors. On the other hand, ethanol interfered in the lung carcinogenesis process resulting from the concomitant exposure of mice to smoke. In fact, ethanol significantly attenuated some smoke-related preneoplastic and neoplastic lesions in the respiratory tract, such as alveolar epithelial hyperplasia, microadenomas, and even malignant tumors. In addition, ethanol attenuated cigarette smoke clastogenicity. In conclusion, preclinical studies provide evidence that, in spite of its pulmonary toxicity, ethanol may mitigate some noxious effects of cigarette smoke in the respiratory tract.

Modulation by Ethanol of Cigarette Smoke Clastogenicity in Cells of Adult Mice and of Transplacentally Exposed Fetuses

Cigarette smoke (CS) and ethanol (EtOH) are known to synergize in the causation of cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract and of the liver. Little is known about possible interactions between these agents in other organs. These premises prompted us to evaluate the clastogenic effects resulting from the inhalation for 3 weeks of mainstream CS and oral administration of EtOH, which were tested either individually or in combination in cells of adult BDF1 mice and their fetuses. CS exerted clastogenic effects in haematopoietic cells of adult male mice by increasing the frequency of micronucleated erythroid cells both in bone marrow and in peripheral blood as well as the frequency of micronucleated and polynucleated pulmonary alveolar macrophages. Likewise, exposure to CS of pregnant mice resulted in a clastogenic damage in maternal bone marrow cells and in the liver and peripheral blood of their fetuses. Under all experimental conditions, EtOH was consistently devoid of clastogenic effects when given alone. In adult mice, EtOH exhibited a mild stimulating effect on the clastogenicity of CS in haematopoietic cells, while an opposite effect was observed in the respiratory tract, where EtOH attenuated the cytogenetic alterations induced by CS in pulmonary alveolar macrophages. At variance with the mild synergism observed in haematopoietic cells of adult mice, EtOH inhibited the clastogenicity of CS in the liver and peripheral blood cells of transplacentally exposed fetuses. Therefore, the effects of EtOH in CS-exposed mice show different trends depending both on the life stage and on the cells analyzed.

Modulation by licofelone and celecoxib of experimentally induced cancer and preneoplastic lesions in mice exposed to cigarette smoke

Chronic inflammation plays a crucial role in cigarette smoke-related carcinogenesis. Accordingly, anti-inflammatory agents, such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), provide a rational strategy in cancer chemoprevention. We assayed celecoxib, a selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor, and licofelone, an inhibitor of COX-1, COX-2, and 5- lipoxygenase (5-LOX), for the ability to modulate carcinogenesis in neonatal mice exposed to mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) for 4 months and thereafter kept in filtered air for 3.5 months. A preliminary toxicity study and a chemoprevention study involved the use of 591 Swiss H mice. Exposure to MCS caused a variety of pulmonary emphysema, alveolar and bronchial epithelial hyperplasias, proliferation of blood vessels, microadenomas, adenomas and malignant tumors, as well as kidney tubular and urinary bladder papillary epithelial hyperplasias. Celecoxib (1600 mg/kg diet) and even better licofelone (960 mg/kg diet) were able to significantly attenuate the MCS-induced alterations of inflammatory nature, including pulmonary emphysema, alveolar epithelial hyperplasias and microadenomas and urinary tract hyperplastic lesions when given to mice according to a protocol that mimics an intervention in current smokers. Moreover, celecoxib attenuated the yield of lung adenomas and both NSAIDs showed some involvement in lowering the progression to cancer in the lung. Celecoxib exhibited some protective effects even when given according to a protocol involving its administration after discontinuation of exposure to MCS. However, both agents and especially celecoxib showed some hepatotoxicity and affected survival and body weight gain of mice when administered to MCS-exposed mice in the long term.

Pharmacological Modulation of Lung Carcinogenesis in Smokers: Preclinical and Clinical Evidence

Many drugs in common use possess pleiotropic properties that make them capable of interfering with carcinogenesis mechanisms. We discuss here the ability of pharmacological agents to mitigate the pulmonary carcinogenicity of mainstream cigarette smoke. The evaluated agents include anti-inflammatory drugs (budesonide, celecoxib, aspirin, naproxen, licofelone), antidiabetic drugs (metformin, pioglitazone), antineoplastic agents (lapatinib, bexarotene, vorinostat), and other drugs and supplements (phenethyl isothiocyanate, myo-inositol, N-acetylcysteine, ascorbic acid, berry extracts). These drugs have been evaluated in mouse models mimicking interventions either in current smokers or in ex-smokers, or in prenatal chemoprevention. They display a broad spectrum of activities by attenuating either smoke-induced preneoplastic lesions or benign tumors and/or malignant tumors. Together with epidemiological data, these findings provide useful information to predict the potential effects of pharmacological agents in smokers.

Assay of lapatinib in murine models of cigarette smoke carcinogenesis

Lapatinib, a dual tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2), is prescribed for the treatment of patients with metastatic breast cancer overexpressing HER-2. Involvement of this drug in pulmonary carcinogenesis has been poorly investigated. We used murine models suitable to evaluate cigarette smoke-related molecular and histopathological alterations. A total of 481 Swiss H mice were used. The mice were exposed to mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) during the first four months of life. After 10 weeks, MCS caused an elevation of bulky DNA adducts, oxidative DNA damage and an extensive downregulation of microRNAs in lung. After four months, an increase in micronucleus frequency was observed in peripheral blood erythrocytes. After 7.5 months, histopathological alterations were detected in the lung, also including benign tumors and malignant tumors, and in the urinary tract. A subchronic toxicity study assessed the non-toxic doses of lapatinib, administered daily with the diet after weaning. After 10 weeks, lapatinib significantly attenuated the MCS-related nucleotide changes and upregulated several low-intensity microRNAs in lung. The drug poorly affected the MCS systemic genotoxicity and had modest protective effects on MCS-induced preneoplastic lesions in lung and kidney, when administered under conditions that temporarily mimicked interventions either in current smokers or ex-smokers. On the other hand, it caused some toxicity to the liver. Thus, on the whole, lapatinib appears to have a low impact in the smoke-related lung carcinogenesis models used, especially in terms of tumorigenic response.

Modulation by metformin of molecular and histopathological alterations in the lung of cigarette smoke-exposed mice

The anti-diabetic drug metformin is endowed with anti-cancer properties. Epidemiological and experimental studies, however, did not provide univocal results regarding its role in pulmonary carcinogenesis. We used Swiss H mice of both genders in order to detect early molecular alterations and tumors induced by mainstream cigarette smoke. Based on a subchronic toxicity study, oral metformin was used at a dose of 800 mg/kg diet, which is 3.2 times higher than the therapeutic dose in humans. Exposure of mice to smoke for 4 months, starting at birth, induced a systemic clastogenic damage, formation of DNA adducts, oxidative DNA damage, and extensive downregulation of microRNAs in lung after 10 weeks. Preneoplastic lesions were detectable after 7.5 months in both lung and urinary tract along with lung tumors, both benign and malignant. Modulation by metformin of 42 of 1281 pulmonary microRNAs in smoke-free mice highlighted a variety of mechanisms, including modulation of AMPK, stress response, inflammation, NFκB, Tlr9, Tgf, p53, cell cycle, apoptosis, antioxidant pathways, Ras, Myc, Dicer, angiogenesis, stem cell recruitment, and angiogenesis. In smoke-exposed mice, metformin considerably decreased DNA adduct levels and oxidative DNA damage, and normalized the expression of several microRNAs. It did not prevent smoke-induced lung tumors but inhibited preneoplastic lesions in both lung and kidney. In conclusion, metformin was able to protect the mouse lung from smoke-induced DNA and microRNA alterations and to inhibit preneoplastic lesions in lung and kidney but failed to prevent lung adenomas and malignant tumors induced by this complex mixture.

Transplacental clastogenic and epigenetic effects of gold nanoparticles in mice

The broad application of nanotechnology in medicine, biology, and pharmacology is leading to a dramatic increase of the risk of direct contact of nanoproducts, among which gold nanoparticles (AuNP), with the human organism. The present study aimed at evaluating in vivo the genotoxicity of AuNPs with average size of 40 nm and 100 nm. A single intraperitoneal treatment of adult male and female Swiss mice (strain H) with AuNPs, at a dose of 3.3 mg/kg body weight, had no effect on the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes (MN PCEs) in bone marrow. Conversely, the transplacental treatment with AuNP-100 nm, but not with AuNP-40 nm, applied intraperitoneally at a dose of 3.3 mg/kg to pregnant mice on days 10, 12, 14, and 17 of gestation, resulted in a significant increase in the frequency of MN PCEs in both liver and peripheral blood of mouse fetuses. In parallel, the same treatment with AuNP-100 nm, but not with AuNP-40 nm, produced significant changes in microRNA expression. In particular, out of 1281 mouse microRNAs analyzed, 28 were dys-regulated more than two-fold and to a statistically significant extent in fetus lung, and 5 were up-regulated in fetal liver. Let-7a and miR-183 were significantly up-regulated in both organs. The data presented herein demonstrate for the first time the transplacental size-dependent clastogenic and epigenetic effects of AuNPs in mouse fetus, thus highlighting new aspects concerning the putative genotoxicity of AuNPs during a vulnerable period of life.

Relationships between pulmonary micro-RNA and proteome profiles, systemic cytogenetic damage and lung tumors in cigarette smoke-exposed mice treated with chemopreventive agents

Assessing the correlation between molecular endpoints and cancer induction or prevention aims at validating the use of intermediate biomarkers. We previously developed murine models that are suitable to detect both the carcinogenicity of mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) and the induction of molecular alterations. In this study, we used 931 Swiss mice in two parallel experiments and in a preliminary toxicity study. The chemopreventive agents included vorinostat, myo-inositol, bexarotene, pioglitazone and a combination of bexarotene and pioglitazone. Pulmonary micro-RNAs and proteins were evaluated by microarray analyses at 10 weeks of age in male and female mice, either unexposed or exposed to MCS since birth, and either untreated or receiving each one of the five chemopreventive regimens with the diet after weaning. At 4 months of age, the frequency of micronucleated normochromatic erythrocytes was evaluated. At 7 months, the lungs were subjected to standard histopathological analysis. The results showed that exposure to MCS significantly downregulated the expression of 79 of 694 lung micro-RNAs (11.4%) and upregulated 66 of 1164 proteins (5.7%). Administration of chemopreventive agents modulated the baseline micro-RNA and proteome profiles and reversed several MCS-induced alterations, with some intergender differences. The stronger protective effects were produced by the combination of bexarotene and pioglitazone, which also inhibited the MCS-induced clastogenic damage and the yield of malignant tumors. Pioglitazone alone increased the yield of lung adenomas. Thus, micro-RNAs, proteins, cytogenetic damage and lung tumors were closely related. The molecular biomarkers contributed to evaluate both protective and adverse effects of chemopreventive agents and highlighted the mechanisms involved.

DNA damage in exfoliated cells and histopathological alterations in the urinary tract of mice exposed to cigarette smoke and treated with chemopreventive agents

Cigarette smoke (CS) is convincingly carcinogenic in mice when exposure starts at birth. We investigated the induction and modulation of alterations in the kidney and urinary bladder of CS-exposed mice. A total of 484 strain H Swiss mice were either sham-exposed or exposed since birth to mainstream CS (MCS) for 4 months. Dietary agents, including myo-inositol, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid, bexarotene, pioglitazone and a combination of bexarotene and pioglitazone, were administered after weaning. Comet analyses showed that, after 2 and 4 months, MCS causes DNA damage in exfoliated urothelial cells, which can be prevented by myo-inositol and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ ligand pioglitazone. After 7 months, the 17.6% of MCS-exposed male mice exhibited lesions of the urinary tract versus the 6.1% of sham-exposed mice, which emphasizes the role of sex hormones in urinary tract carcinogenesis. Myo-inositol and the RXR-specific retinoid bexarotene did not affect these alterations. The histone deacetylase inhibitor suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (Vorinostat) increased the incidence of kidney epithelium hyperplasia. Pioglitazone significantly enhanced the incidence of kidney lesions as compared with mice exposed to MCS only, indicating possible adverse effects of this antidiabetic drug, which were lost upon combination with bexarotene according to a combined chemoprevention strategy. RXR is a heterodymeric partner for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ, thereby modulating the expression of multiple target genes. In conclusion, there is contrast between the ability of pioglitazone to inhibit DNA damage in exfoliated cells and the alterations induced in the urinary tract of MCS-exposed mice, suggesting the occurrence of non-genotoxic mechanisms for this drug.

Inhibition of lung tumor development by berry extracts in mice exposed to cigarette smoke

Cigarette smoke (CS) and dietary factors play a major role in cancer epidemiology. At the same time, however, the diet is the richest source of anticancer agents. Berries possess a broad array of health protective properties and were found to attenuate the yield of tumors induced by individual carcinogens in the rodent digestive tract and mammary gland but failed to prevent lung tumors induced by typical CS components in mice. We exposed whole-body Swiss ICR mice to mainstream CS, starting at birth and continuing daily for 4 months. Aqueous extracts of black chokeberry and strawberry were given as the only source of drinking water, starting after weaning and continuing for 7 months, thus mimicking an intervention in current smokers. In the absence of berries, CS caused a loss of body weight, induced early cytogenetical damage in circulating erythrocytes and histopathological alterations in lung (emphysema, blood vessel proliferation, alveolar epithelial hyperplasia and adenomas), liver (parenchymal degeneration) and urinary bladder (epithelial hyperplasia). Both berry extracts inhibited the CS-related body weight loss, cytogenetical damage, liver degeneration, pulmonary emphysema and lung adenomas. Protective effects were more pronounced in female mice, which may be ascribed to modulation by berry components of the metabolism of estrogens implicated in lung carcinogenesis. Interestingly, both the carcinogen and the chemopreventive agents tested are complex mixtures that contain a multitude of components working through composite mechanisms.

Transplacental antioxidants inhibit lung tumors in mice exposed to cigarette smoke after birth: a novel preventative strategy?

Birth is characterized by an intense oxidative stress resulting in nucleotide alterations and gene overexpression in mouse lung. We showed that cigarette smoke (CS) is carcinogenic when exposure starts soon after birth and applied this bioassay to evaluate the efficacy of chemopreventive agents. The present study evaluated whether administration of the antioxidants N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC) and vitamin C or ascorbic acid (AsA) during pregnancy can protect strain H Swiss mice exposed to CS after birth. Exposure to CS, for 4 months, of newborns from untreated mice resulted in significant alterations at 8 months of life, including alveolar epithelial hyperplasia, emphysema, blood vessel proliferation, microadenomas, adenomas, and malignant tumors in lung, liver parenchymal degeneration and urinary bladder epithelium hyperplasia. Treatment throughout pregnancy with either NAC, a scavenger of reactive oxygen species, or AsA, an electron donor, did not affect fertility, parity, and body weight of newborns. Prenatal antioxidants significantly inhibited most lesions in adult mice exposed to CS since birth. For instance, the incidence of emphysema was reduced from 27.5% in CS-exposed mice that were untreated during pregnancy to 7.1% and 14.0% in those treated prenatally with NAC and AsA, respectively. Lung adenomas were reduced from 34.8% to 16.7% and 9.3%, respectively. Malignant lung tumors were reduced from 13.0% to 4.7% by prenatal AsA. Liver parenchymal degeneration was reduced from 58.0% to 14.3% by prenatal NAC. These data mechanistically support a "transplacental chemoprevention" strategy, aimed at protecting the newborn from oxidative stress and the adult from CS-related diseases appearing later in life.

Differential carcinogenicity of cigarette smoke in mice exposed either transplacentally, early in life or in adulthood

Cigarette smoke (CS) plays a dominant role in the epidemiology of human cancer. However, it is difficult to reproduce its carcinogenicity in laboratory animals. Recently, we showed that CS becomes a potent carcinogen in mice when exposure starts soon after birth. In our study, we comparatively evaluated the carcinogenic response to mainstream CS in mice at different ages. Neonatal mice were exposed daily for 4 months to CS, starting within 12 hr after birth, and sacrificed at 8 months. Adult mice were exposed for the same time period (3-7 months) and sacrificed at 11 months. Other mice were exposed transplacentally or both transplacentally and early in life. A total of 351 neonatal mice and 80 adult Swiss H mice were used. With varying intensity depending on age, CS induced pulmonary emphysema, bronchial and alveolar epithelial hyperplasia, blood vessel proliferation and hemangiomas and microadenomas in lung as well as parenchymal degeneration of liver. Histopathological alterations of kidney were only observed in mice exposed to CS early in life. Lung adenomas and malignant tumors of various histopathological nature were detected in neonatally exposed mice but not in adults. Transplacental CS induced the formation of lung adenomas in the offspring 8 months after birth. Previous exposure during pregnancy attenuated CS-related alveolar epithelial hyperplasia induced after birth. In conclusion, the carcinogenic response to CS varies depending on the developmental stage. The early postnatal life and the prenatal life are particularly at risk for the later development of CS-related tumors.

Prevention of cigarette smoke-induced lung tumors in mice by budesonide, phenethyl isothiocyanate, and N-acetylcysteine

Lung cancer is the most important cause of death among neoplastic diseases worldwide, and cigarette smoke (CS) is the major risk factor for cancer. Complementarily to avoidance of exposure to CS, chemoprevention will lower the risk of cancer in passive smokers, ex-smokers, and addicted current smokers who fail to quit smoking. Unfortunately, chemoprevention clinical trials have produced disappointing results to date and, until recently, a suitable animal model evaluating CS carcinogenicity was not available. We previously demonstrated that mainstream CS induces a potent carcinogenic response when exposure of mice starts at birth. In the present study, neonatal mice (strain H) were exposed to CS for 120 consecutive days, starting at birth. The chemopreventive agents budesonide (2.4 mg/kg diet), phenethyl isothiocyanate (PEITC, 1,000 mg/kg diet), and N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC, 1,000 mg/kg body weight) were administered orally according to various protocols. The experiment was stopped after 210 days. Exposure to CS resulted in a high incidence and multiplicity of benign lung tumors and in significant increases of malignant lung tumors and other histopathological alterations. All three chemopreventive agents, administered to current smokers after weaning, were quite effective in protecting both male and female mice from CS pulmonary carcinogenicity. When given to ex-smokers after withdrawal of exposure to CS, the protective capacity of budesonide was unchanged, while PEITC lost part of its cancer chemopreventive activity. In conclusion, the proposed experimental model provides convincing evidence that it is possible to prevent CS-induced lung cancer by means of dietary and pharmacological agents.

Prenatal N-acetylcysteine prevents cigarette smoke-induced lung cancer in neonatal mice

Certain adult diseases may have their origin early in life, and perinatal exposures may contribute to cancers both during childhood and later in life. We recently demonstrated that mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) induces a potent carcinogenic response in mice when exposure starts soon after birth. We also showed that the antioxidant N-acetylcysteine (NAC) prevents the extensive nucleotide and gene expression alterations that occur 'physiologically' at birth in mouse lung. The present study was designed to evaluate whether administration of NAC during pregnancy may affect the yield of tumors in mice exposed to MCS, starting after birth and continuing for 120 days. The results obtained showed that 210 days after birth, one adenoma only was detectable in sham-exposed mice. In contrast, as much as the 61.1% (33/54) of MCS-exposed mice born from untreated dams had lung tumors, including both benign tumors and bronchoalveolar carcinomas. Treatment with NAC during pregnancy strikingly inhibited the formation of benign lung tumors and totally prevented occurrence of carcinomas. In addition, prenatal NAC inhibited the MCS-induced hyperplasia of the urinary bladder epithelium. These findings demonstrate for the first time that treatment during pregnancy with an antioxidant chemopreventive agent can affect the induction of tumors consequent to exposure to a carcinogen after birth.

Potent carcinogenicity of cigarette smoke in mice exposed early in life

In spite of the dominant role of cigarette smoke (CS) in cancer epidemiology, all studies performed during the past 60 years have shown that this complex mixture is either negative or weakly tumorigenic in experimental animals. We implemented studies aimed at evaluating whether exposure of mice early in life may enhance susceptibility to CS carcinogenicity. A total of 98 newborn Swiss albino mice were either untreated (controls) or received a subcutaneous injection of benzo(a)pyrene [B(a)P] (positive control) or were exposed whole-body to mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) for 120 days, starting within 12 h after birth. Complete necropsy and histopathological analyses were performed at periodical intervals. In contrast with the lack of lung tumors in controls, MCS-exposed mice developed microscopically detectable tumors, starting only 75 days after birth and reaching an overall incidence of 78.3% after 181-230 days. The mean lung tumor multiplicities were 6.1 and 13.6 tumors per mouse in males and females, respectively, showing a significant intergender difference. Most tumors were microadenomas or adenomas, but 18.4% of the mice additionally had malignant lung cancer. MCS also induced bronchial and alveolar epithelial hyperplasia, and blood vessel proliferation. Furthermore, malignant tumors, some of which may have a metastatic origin, were detected in the urinary tract and liver of MCS-exposed mice. A somewhat different spectrum of tumors was observed in B(a)P-treated mice. In conclusion, MCS is a potent and broad spectrum carcinogen in mice when exposure starts early in life, covering stages of life corresponding to neonatal, childhood and adolescence periods in humans. This animal model will be useful to explore the mechanisms involved in CS-induced carcinogenesis and to investigate the protective effects of dietary agents and chemopreventive drugs.

Projected cancer incidence rates in Bulgaria, 1968-2017

BACKGROUND

Incidence predictions are applicable when planning preventive or screening health care programmes, diagnostic, treatment and rehabilitation facilities. The aim of this study was to predict future (1993-2017) incidence rates of the most common sites of cancer in Bulgaria: breast, cervix and corpus uteri in females, and lung, prostate and stomach in males.

METHOD

Observed numbers of incident cases in the period 1968-1992 and observed (predicted) population size were employed. Age-cohort and age-cohort-period log-linear models were fitted to the observed data, assuming no change in the observed trends.

RESULTS

The incidence rates for all the studied primary sites, except stomach cancer, were predicted to increase. The observed rates in the period 1988-1992 and the predicted rates in the period 2013-2017 per 100000 were in females: breast-from 38.8 to 64.6, cervix-from 12.8 to 19.3, corpus uteri-from 12.4 to 26.5. In males similar rates were: lung-from 41.0 to 73.8, prostate-from 10.1 to 15.0 and stomach-from 17.5 to 10.2. Due to the increasing incidence rates and ageing of the population the predicted number of new cases in the studied sites of cancer in the period 2013-2017 is 62% higher than that observed in the period 1988-1992.