The resilience-sustainability-quality of life nexus

Social-ecological resilience (SER), sustainability (SUS) and quality of life including wellbeing (QOL) are distinct but highly interconnected goals that are essential for human survival, development, and adaptation to environmental and socioeconomic changes. However, these goals are often addressed in silos or pairs, and a framework explicitly linking all three is currently lacking. In this paper, we present the SER-SUS-QOL nexus framework and discuss how social and ecological changes affect these goals. The main thrust of this nexus is that efforts toward SER and SUS need to be explicitly framed in terms of the ultimate goal, which has to be the QOL of the present and future generations. We contend that critically assessing the dynamic interplay between SER, SUS and QOL, as well as the factors impacting them, can help promote transformative governance and planning in the contemporary era. Understanding the multifaceted interrelationship between these goals is crucial to empower planners and decision-makers to navigate the complexities of our rapidly changing world and address the challenges brought by interrelated social and ecological changes. To deepen our understanding of this nexus, more research is needed on various issues, including, but not limited to, trade-offs and synergies, cascading effects, spatiotemporal dynamics of SER, SUS and QOL outcomes, potential inconsistencies between SER and transformative changes toward SUS, and the role of local/indigenous/traditional ecological knowledge in transformative governance and planning.

Spatial dataset on future forest cover changes in Southeast Asia projected under the shared socioeconomic pathways

The five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) provide future projections for various social-ecological variables, including forest cover. However, these projections are limited to quantities and lack a spatial dimension. This dataset is the result of an effort to spatialize the projected forest cover changes (losses and gains) (2015-2050) in Southeast Asia under the five baseline SSPs. The dataset is available in GIS raster format (.tif) at a spatial resolution of 300 m. A wide range of users can benefit from this dataset, as it can be used independently or in conjunction with other datasets. Specifically, it can be employed to assess potential future social-ecological impacts, both positive and negative, in Southeast Asia resulting from changes in forest cover. The dataset supports analysis at the national, sub-national, or landscape levels.

Has the IPCC's revised vulnerability concept been well adopted?

In the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports (TAR and AR4, respectively) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is conceived as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, in its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) and Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC redefined and separated exposure, and it reconceptualized vulnerability to be a function of sensitivity and capacity to cope and adapt. In this review, we found that the IPCC's revised vulnerability concept has not been well adopted and that researchers' preference, possible misinterpretation, possible confusion, and possible unawareness are among the possible technical and practical reasons. Among the issues that need further clarification from the IPCC is whether or not such a reconceptualization of vulnerability in the SREX/AR5 necessarily implies nullification of the TAR/AR4 vulnerability concept as far as the IPCC is concerned.

Complexity and diversity of nexuses: A review of the nexus approach in the sustainability context

Achieving global sustainability is a coupled human-environment system issue that requires resource planning and management that goes beyond siloed thinking. As such, there has been a growing interest in nexus thinking as a way to address global sustainability challenges in an integrated manner. In general, the nexus approach serves as a tool for systems integration, a platform for stakeholder engagement, and a method for exploring development pathways. This review traces the historical origin and progress of the nexus approach and examines the changes in the complexity and diversity of nexuses over time. Since its emergence in the early 1980s, the nexus approach has undergone several phases of development, resulting in more complex and diverse nexuses, whose components can be resource sectors/systems and/or specific social-ecological issues. This progress is favorable for the sustainable development agenda because the more components involved in a nexus, the greater the reality that can be potentially captured. Currently, however, there is still no consensus with regards to the key nexus components that could potentially cover all of the sustainable development goals. The development of frameworks for implementing the nexus approach and the identification of relevant indicators and target values to be used for assessing trade-offs and synergies are among the current issues with regards to the use of the nexus approach in the sustainability context.

Rethinking forest monitoring for more meaningful global forest landscape change assessments

Forest ecosystems play an indispensable role in addressing various pressing sustainability and social-ecological challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem services deterioration, hence the monitoring of the world's forests is crucial. As part of the global forest assessment workflow, a forest is generally classified and mapped based on land use and/or using a tree canopy cover threshold. In this paper, we examine the limitations of this approach and argue that the use of a land use-based forest definition and tree canopy cover thresholds can overlook forest degradation and enhancement, disguise the actual status of forest landscapes, and misinform management planning. These limitations can delay the development and implementation of forest restoration and conservation measures. To help overcome these issues, we propose some enhancements to the global forest assessment workflow, including the sharing of spatial data and inclusion of tree canopy cover estimates in assessment reports. Such enhancements are needed to achieve more meaningful forest monitoring and reporting in the context of global environmental initiatives, such as those related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, forest restoration, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem services monitoring.

IPCC's current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' needs more clarification for climate change vulnerability assessments

In this Short Communication, we raise the concern that the existing conceptualization of 'vulnerability', introduced in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), is not facilitative for standalone vulnerability assessments and that this conceptualization has not been well accepted by the vulnerability researchers. We identify three key reasons for low adoption of the AR5 conceptualization in climate change vulnerability assessments, and urge the IPCC Working Group II to clarify how the current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' can facilitate standalone climate change vulnerability assessments. We propose treating 'exposure' not only as a precondition for vulnerability but also as a secondary driver of vulnerability to capture the influence of differential exposure.

Capturing urban heat island formation in a subtropical city of China based on Landsat images: implications for sustainable urban development

Land use/cover change is the main driving force of urban expansion which influences human-environment interactions. Generally, the formation of urban heat islands (UHIs) can be referred to as a negative "by-product" of urbanization. In the context of rapid urbanization, the present paper aims to capture the landscape changes and three patterns of urban expansion (i.e., infill, extension, and leapfrog), and provide a better understanding of the formation of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) in Dongguan, China, during the past 20+ years. Urban land increased from 28.87 × 10³ ha in 1994 to 78.89 × 10³ ha in 2005 and 101.05 × 10³ ha in 2015, with a compound annual urban growth rate of 9.57% (1994-2005) and 2.51% (2005-2015), respectively. Based on the mean land surface temperature difference (Δ mean LST) between urban land (UL) and green space (GS), the SUHI intensity (SUHII) increased from 1.46 °C in 1994 to 2.32 °C in 2005 and 3.83 °C in 2015 in Dongguan. Overall, the Δ mean LST of urban areas increased from 2.61 °C (1994-2005) to 4.78 °C (2005-2015). The Δ mean LST between the city center and its surrounding areas decreased from 1994 to 2015, and the Δ mean LST between the city center and the suburbs gradually increased, primarily in 2015. In particular, both dense urban and the infill pattern of urban expansion had high mean LSTs in Dongguan, thus having negative impacts on sustainable urban development. The limited green space and open land should be strictly controlled or prohibited for transformation in urban areas. Particularly in dense regions, green roofs, green areas, and urban renewal actions could be considered for mitigating the urban heat island effect.

Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications

The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks-especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs' projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway.

Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators

More than half of the world’s population currently live in urban areas and are particularly at risk from the combined effects of the urban heat island phenomenon and heat increases due to climate change. Here, by using remotely sensed surface temperature data and social-ecological indicators, focusing on the hot dry season, and applying the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we assessed the current heat health risk in 139 Philippine cities, which account for about 40% of the country’s total population. The cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high. The most vulnerable cities are, however, found mainly outside the national capital region, where sensitivity is higher and capacity to cope and adapt is lower. Cities with high levels of heat vulnerability and exposure must be prioritized for adaptation. Our results will contribute to risk profiling in the Philippines and to the understanding of city-level heat health risks in developing regions of the Asia-Pacific.

Evaluating the heat risk among city dwellers is important. Here, the authors assessed the heat risk in Philippine cities using remote sensing data and social-ecological indicators and found that the cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high.

Scenario-based land abandonment projections: Method, application and implications

Land abandonment, e.g. agricultural land abandonment, can result in various social and ecological impacts. It would thus be helpful if the extent and spatial pattern of future land abandonment could be projected. However, the trajectory of future land abandonment generally depends on various factors, including biophysical conditions and future changes in socioeconomic indicators in the area. In this study, we developed a general framework for a scenario-based land abandonment projection, featuring a coupled regional economic and spatially explicit land change modeling approach. We applied this framework in selected municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, under two socioeconomic development scenarios (2014-2050): low population and economic growth (LL scenario) and high population and economic growth (HH scenario). The case study results, which are also visualized through a set of hot spot maps, revealed that agricultural land abandonment would be more intense under the HH scenario due to the much higher future decline in farmer population driven by the shift in people's employment and main source of livelihood. Under the LL scenario, residential and urban land abandonment would be more profound because of the much higher future decline in total population. In general, our results provide insights into some plausible future socioeconomic changes, their interplay and their consequent land abandonment in the case study area, which would be useful in the context of forward-looking adaptive development planning. The proposed framework can be applied to other case study areas.

A review of quality of life (QOL) assessments and indicators: Towards a "QOL-Climate" assessment framework

Quality of life (QOL), although a complex and amorphous concept, is a term that warrants attention, especially in discussions on issues that touch on the impacts of climate change and variability. Based on the principles of RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis, we present a systematic review aimed at gaining insights into the conceptualization and methodological construct of previous studies regarding QOL and QOL-related indexes. We find that (i) QOL assessments vary in terms of conceptual foundations, dimensions, indicators, and units of analysis, (ii) social indicators are consistently used across assessments, (iii) most assessments consider indicators that pertain to the livability of the environment, and (iv) QOL can be based on objective indicators and/or subjective well-being, and on a composite index or unaggregated dimensions and indicators. However, we also find that QOL assessments remain poorly connected with climate-related issues, an important research gap. Our proposed "QOL-Climate" assessment framework, designed to capture the social-ecological impacts of climate change and variability, can potentially help fill this gap.

The future of Southeast Asia's forests

While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.

Bibliometric analysis of highly cited articles on ecosystem services

This paper presents global research trends involving highly cited articles on ecosystem services from 1981 to 2017 based on a bibliometric analysis of such articles from the SCI-E and SSCI databases of the Web of Science. The analysis revealed that there were 132 highly cited articles, most of which were published between 2005 and 2014. Based on author keywords, the term ecosystem services was strongly linked to biodiversity. The top three journals in terms of total number of highly cited articles published were Ecological Economics, PNAS, and Ecological Indicators. Despite ranking sixth overall, Science ranked first in both impact factor and total citations per article. The US, UK, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden were the top five most productive and cooperative countries in the world based on total number of highly cited articles and co-authorship network, respectively. The US was highly connected to Canada, the Netherlands, China and the UK. Stockholm University and Stanford University were the most productive institutions in Europe and North America, respectively. Stanford University is associated with many scholars in the field of ecosystem services research because of the InVEST model. Robert Costanza was the most prolific and highly cited author, the latter being largely due to the first valuation of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital, he and his co-authors published in 1997 in Nature. Terrestrial, urban, and forest ecosystems were the top types of ecosystems assessed. Regulating and provisioning services were the major ecosystem services studied. Quantitative and qualitative assessments were the main research focus. Most of these highly cited studies on ecosystem services are done on areas geographically located in North America and Europe.

Assessing environmental impacts and change in Myanmar's mangrove ecosystem service value due to deforestation (2000-2014)

Myanmar is one of the mangrove-richest countries in the world, providing valuable ecosystem services to people. However, due to deforestation driven primarily by agricultural expansion, Myanmar's mangrove forest cover has declined dramatically over the past few decades, while what remains is still under pressure. To support management planning, accurate quantification of mangrove forest cover changes on a national scale is needed. In this study, we quantified Myanmar's mangrove forest cover changes between 2000 and 2014 using remotely sensed data, examined the environmental impacts of such changes, and estimated the changes in the economic values of mangrove ecosystem services in the country. Results indicate that Myanmar had a net mangrove loss of 191,122 ha over the study period. Since 2000, Myanmar has been losing mangrove forest cover at an alarming rate of 14,619 ha/year (2.2%/year). The loss was predominant in Rakhine and Ayeyarwady. The observed mangrove forest cover loss has resulted in decreased evapotranspiration, carbon stock, and tree cover percentage. Due to deforestation, Myanmar also suffered a net loss of 2,397 million US$/year in its mangrove ecosystem service value (i.e. 28.7% decrease from 2000), in which maintenance of fisheries nursery populations and habitat and coastal protection were among those services that were greatly affected. We suggest that intensive reforestation and mangrove protection programs be implemented immediately. Agroforestry and community forestry programs are encouraged in areas that are under immense pressure from paddy field expansion, fuelwood extraction, charcoal production, and fish and shrimp farming activities. Potential alternative sustainable solutions should include intensive government-led private forest plantations or community-owned forest plantations to be developed with care by local farmers, nongovernmental organizations, and business owners.

Effects of landscape composition and pattern on land surface temperature: An urban heat island study in the megacities of Southeast Asia

Due to its adverse impacts on urban ecological environment and the overall livability of cities, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a major research focus in various interrelated fields, including urban climatology, urban ecology, urban planning, and urban geography. This study sought to examine the relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and the abundance and spatial pattern of impervious surface and green space in the metropolitan areas of Bangkok (Thailand), Jakarta (Indonesia), and Manila (Philippines). Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS data and various geospatial approaches, including urban-rural gradient, multiresolution grid-based, and spatial metrics-based techniques, were used to facilitate the analysis. We found a significant strong correlation between mean LST and the density of impervious surface (positive) and green space (negative) along the urban-rural gradients of the three cities, depicting a typical UHI profile. The correlation of impervious surface density with mean LST tends to increase in larger grids, whereas the correlation of green space density with mean LST tends to increase in smaller grids, indicating a stronger influence of impervious surface and green space on the variability of LST in larger and smaller areas, respectively. The size, shape complexity, and aggregation of the patches of impervious surface and green space also had significant relationships with mean LST, though aggregation had the most consistent strong correlation. On average, the mean LST of impervious surface is about 3°C higher than that of green space, highlighting the important role of green spaces in mitigating UHI effects, an important urban ecosystem service. We recommend that the density and spatial pattern of urban impervious surfaces and green spaces be considered in landscape and urban planning so that urban areas and cities can have healthier and more comfortable living urban environments.

Measuring sustainability based upon various perspectives: a case study of a hill station in Southeast Asia

A hill station is a town or city situated in mountain regions in the tropics founded during the western colonization in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Hill stations have moderate temperatures, and are known for their relatively good natural environments, which generate valuable ecosystem services that benefit the local population. However, rapid urbanization threatens the sustainability of these areas. This study evaluates the sustainability of the urbanization process of Baguio City, a hill station city in Southeast Asia and the summer capital of the Philippines, by determining the relationship between its velocity of urbanization and velocity of urban sustainability based upon various perspectives. From an equal weight perspective (of the triple bottom line of sustainability components, namely environmental, social, and economic) and a pro-economic perspective, the results revealed that the urbanization of Baguio City has been moving toward a "sustainable urbanization." However, from the environmental and eco-sustainable human development perspectives, the results indicated that it has been moving toward an "unsustainable urbanization." The paper discusses the implications of the findings for the planning of sustainable development for Baguio City, including some critical challenges in sustainability assessment and the applicability of the framework used for future sustainability assessments of the other hill stations in Southeast Asia.