Identifying priority regions and territorial planning strategies for conserving native vegetation in the Cerrado (Brazil) under different scenarios of land use changes

The Cerrado biome covers approximately 20% of Brazil and it is crucial for the Water, Food, Energy, and Ecosystems (WFEE) nexus. Thus, in recent years, large areas of the undisturbed Cerrado have been converted into farmland. In this biome, according to the Brazilian Forest Code, farmers need to keep 20% of native vegetation (Legal Reserves - LRs). By exploring combined and isolated impacts of different scenarios of LR and Protected area (PA) arrangements, this study evaluated the importance of complementarity between LR compliance and the amount of PAs (including Conservation Units - CUs and Indigenous Lands - ILs) to reduce deforestation and conserve native vegetation in the Cerrado. Seven scenarios were investigated: a scenario that considers the current PA and the LR values foreseen in the Native Vegetation Protection Law - NVPL; three scenarios focused on production; and three focused on conservation. Considering the trend of the current scenario, the estimated loss of native vegetation will be 30% (30.6 million ha) by 2070. According to the model simulations, for two periods (2050 and 2070), the LR Elimination scenario (LRE) would cause a greater loss of native vegetation than the PA Elimination (PAE), and as expected, the exclusion of both (PALRE) would provide a greater loss of native vegetation. Native vegetation is concentrated mainly on agricultural properties. Taking our conservation-oriented scenarios as an example of conservation strategies, if there were no financial, practical, political, social or personal constraints, there is no doubt that the CPALRI scenario (Creation of Protected Areas and Legal Reserve Increase) is the best trajectory for conserving biodiversity. Therefore, private properties, through LRs, are essential for efficient planning of land use/cover as they ensure security in the WFEE nexus. The resulting projected scenarios are important to help decision makers in territorial planning and how to arbitrate territorial demands aiming at the rational use of the natural resources of the Cerrado.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the interactions among multiple soil-dependent ecosystem services (case study: Jiroft plain, Iran)

The spatial and temporal distribution pattern is an outstanding feature of the relationship among ecosystem services (ESs) that explains links between human activities and disturbed chemical composition of ecosystems. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of land use/cover changes (LUCC) and quantifies the change in four essential ecosystem services with an emphasis on soil (nutrient delivery ratio, carbon storage, crop production, and water yield) and their relationships in the Jiroft plain, Iran, during 1996-2016 through analytical tools including Land Change Modeler, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff. During the 20-year concentrate period, there was a considerable overall gain in cropland (5396 km²) and urban (1787 km²), loss of unused land (5692 km²), water (2088 km²), and forest (1083 km²). As a result of LUCC, while crop production and nutrient delivery ratio showed a rising trend, overall carbon storage and water yield decreased. The spatiotemporal trade-off between carbon storage and crop production, the temporal trade-off between crop production and water yield, and synergy between water yield and crop production were widespread in Jiroft plain. These results showed that the interaction among ESs mutates over time and can be changed under planning and policies. This study will enrich the research of the geographical distribution of ESs interaction in dryland ecosystems to provide practical ecosystem management under local conditions.

Spatiotemporal ecological quality assessment of metropolitan cities: a case study of central Iran

The present study used the recently developed Remote Sensing-Based Ecological Index (RSEI) to assess the temporal-spatial variation of ecological quality in the metropolitan city of Isfahan (Iran) as a member of the UNESCO Creative Cities Network. This study was conducted from the Landsat TM/OLI satellite images of 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019. The RSEI was synthesized by principal component analysis for four indices of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Land Surface Moisture (LSM) and Normalized Differential Build-up, and Bare Soil Index (NDBSI) based on the framework of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in the aforementioned years. The ecological quality of the city was assessed by RSEI over a 15-year period. The index has a value range of 0 (completely poor ecological quality) to 1 (completely desirable). In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of RSEIs at different intervals was assessed by the Moran index. The results showed that the RSEI value was always less than 0.4, which indicated the unfavourable ecological quality of the city. This index was 0.34, 0.37, 0.26 and 0.30 in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019, respectively. Therefore, the ecological quality of the city did not have a constant trend during the studied period and had several fluctuations, which could be attributed to the natural and anthropogenic changes in the studied period. Additionally, the results of the Moran index showed a steady decline, which indicated a declining homogeneity during this period. Matching the calculated RSEIs with the realities of the region at each time interval suggested that the index could be a useful tool for assessing urban ecological quality.

Capturing urban heat island formation in a subtropical city of China based on Landsat images: implications for sustainable urban development

Land use/cover change is the main driving force of urban expansion which influences human-environment interactions. Generally, the formation of urban heat islands (UHIs) can be referred to as a negative "by-product" of urbanization. In the context of rapid urbanization, the present paper aims to capture the landscape changes and three patterns of urban expansion (i.e., infill, extension, and leapfrog), and provide a better understanding of the formation of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) in Dongguan, China, during the past 20+ years. Urban land increased from 28.87 × 10³ ha in 1994 to 78.89 × 10³ ha in 2005 and 101.05 × 10³ ha in 2015, with a compound annual urban growth rate of 9.57% (1994-2005) and 2.51% (2005-2015), respectively. Based on the mean land surface temperature difference (Δ mean LST) between urban land (UL) and green space (GS), the SUHI intensity (SUHII) increased from 1.46 °C in 1994 to 2.32 °C in 2005 and 3.83 °C in 2015 in Dongguan. Overall, the Δ mean LST of urban areas increased from 2.61 °C (1994-2005) to 4.78 °C (2005-2015). The Δ mean LST between the city center and its surrounding areas decreased from 1994 to 2015, and the Δ mean LST between the city center and the suburbs gradually increased, primarily in 2015. In particular, both dense urban and the infill pattern of urban expansion had high mean LSTs in Dongguan, thus having negative impacts on sustainable urban development. The limited green space and open land should be strictly controlled or prohibited for transformation in urban areas. Particularly in dense regions, green roofs, green areas, and urban renewal actions could be considered for mitigating the urban heat island effect.

Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views

Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis has been increasingly applied to spatial planning instruments in the last few years. Nevertheless, stakeholder participation in the land use modelling process and analysis is still low. This paper describes a methodology engaging stakeholders (from the land use planning, agriculture, and forest sectors) in the building and assessment of future LUCC scenarios. We selected as case study the Torres Vedras Municipality (Portugal), a peri-urban region near Lisbon. Our analysis encompasses a participatory workshop to analyse LUCC model outcomes, based on farmer LUCC intentions, for the following scenarios: A0 - current social and economic trend (Business as Usual); A1 - regional food security; A2 - climate change; and B0 - farming under urban pressure. This analysis allowed local stakeholders to develop and discuss their own views on the most plausible future LUCC for the following land use classes: artificial surfaces, non-irrigated arable land, permanently irrigated land, permanent crops and heterogeneous agricultural land, pastures, forest and semi-natural areas, and water bodies and wetlands. Subsequently, we spatialized these LUCC views into a hybrid model (Cellular Automata - Geographic Information Systems), identifying the most suitable land conversion areas. We refer to this model, implemented in NetLogo, as the stakeholder-LUCC model. The results presented in this paper model where, when, why, and what conversions may occur in the future in regard to stakeholders' points of view. These outcomes can better enable decision-makers to perform land use planning more efficiently and develop measures to prevent undesirable futures, particularly in extreme events such as scenarios of food security, climate change, and/or farming under pressure.

Land cover changes and greenhouse gas emissions in two different soil covers in the Brazilian Caatinga

The Caatinga biome covers an area of 844,453km(2) and has enormous endemic biodiversity, with unique characteristics that make it an exclusive Brazilian biome. It falls within the earth's tropical zone and is one of the several important ecoregions of Brazil. This biome undergoes natural lengthy periods of drought that cause losses in crop and livestock productivity, having a severe impact on the population. Due to the vulnerability of this ecosystem to climate change, livestock has emerged as the main livelihood of the rural population, being the precursor of the replacement of native vegetation by grazing areas. This study aimed to measure GHG emissions from two different soil covers: native forest (Caatinga) and pasture in the municipality of São João, Pernambuco State, in the years 2013 and 2014. GHG measurements were taken by using static chamber techniques in both soil covers. According to a previous search, so far, this is the first study measuring GHG emissions using the static chamber in the Caatinga biome. N2O emissions ranged from -1.0 to 4.2mgm(-2)d(-1) and -1.22 to 3.4mgm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively, and they did not significantly differ from each other. Emissions were significantly higher during dry seasons. Carbon dioxide ranged from -1.1 to 14.1 and 1.2 to 15.8gm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively. CO2 emissions were higher in the Caatinga in 2013, and they were significantly influenced by soil temperature, showing an inverse relation. Methane emission ranged from 6.6 to 6.8 and -6.0 to 4.8mgm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively, and was significantly higher only in the Caatinga in the rainy season of 2014. Soil gas fluxes seemed to be influenced by climatic and edaphic conditions as well as by soil cover in the Caatinga biome.