Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change

The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. This research focuses on rural regions highly susceptible to climate change impacts. The objective was to enhance conditions for climate resilient development on a microlocal level by encouraging diverse stakeholders to participate in developing sustainable landscape management. This paper introduces a novel interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to landscape scenario development, combining research-driven and participatory approaches and integrating quantitative methods with qualitative ethnographic inquiry. Two scenarios for 2050 were built: a research-driven, business-as-usual scenario accounting for mandatory adaptation policies and an optimistic scenario combining research-driven and participatory approaches, including additional feasible community-based measures. While the differences between the projected land use seem to be relatively subtle, the optimistic scenario would in fact lead to a considerably more resilient landscape. The results highlight the role of interdisciplinarity and ethnography in gaining good local knowledge and building an atmosphere of trust. These factors supported the research credibility, strengthened the legitimacy of the intervention in local affairs, and contributed to the active participation of the stakeholders. We argue that despite its time, intense effort and limited direct policy impact, the mixed-method approach is highly suitable for the microlocal level. It encourages citizens to think about how their environment is threatened by climate change impacts and increases their willingness to contribute to climate resilience.

An application of the participatory approach to develop an integrated water resources management (IWRM) system for the drought-affected region of Bangladesh

In many cases, poor management of water supplies is to blame for a crisis. Scholars and practitioners have proposed developing enhanced modalities of water governance that promote the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) to meet the interconnected problems of assuring access to sustainable water supplies for the world's populations. Therefore, this research aims to do two things: 1) evaluate the current status of water and related resources, and 2) create an operational decision-support system for the sustainable use of water resources based on integrated water resources management (IWRM). Beneficiaries are involved in all stages of the planning process, from the first brainstorming to the final evaluation. There hasn't been anything quite like these kinds of efforts before because they do not actively include community groups and government agencies in project design and money distribution. Matching water resources with various users (farmers, fisherman, women, and others) and their agriculture and fisheries development requirements was the focus of this study, which took an integrated participatory approach. Therefore, water management agencies are established through participatory water management. Beneficiaries realized that collective action results in the empowerment of all community members through capacity building and participatory water management. Because of this plan, agricultural progress in the area under consideration will proceed smoothly.

Regionally extended shared socioeconomic pathways for the offshore wind industry in Finland

Offshore wind energy is increasingly becoming an important part of European and global low-emission power systems. The aims of this paper are to create a shared understanding on the major drivers of offshore wind development in Finland and to explore how these drivers, and opportunities for the entire industry, may develop over the twenty-first century, under different global futures. This research develops extended shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) narratives for the offshore wind industry by using a virtual participatory workshop with expert stakeholders. According to our results, the five key drivers shaping the prospects of offshore wind development are public acceptability of offshore energy, global and national demand for low-emission energy, technological development and relative competitiveness of offshore energy, availability of space and wind resources, and energy markets and transmission infrastructure. Nationally extended SSP narratives, building on these key drivers, describe a wide range of alternative future risks and opportunities for developing offshore energy. Under sustainable development (SSP1), offshore wind is likely to soon become a major source of energy in the area, if developed in a balanced manner alongside other uses of the marine space. Under fossil-fuelled development (SSP5), offshore wind grows slower and may experience rapid uptake only in the latter half of the century. Under the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3), the need for local energy sources drives the national energy policies and may create new opportunities for offshore wind. Under the inequality scenario (SSP4), local municipalities and the residents decide on locations of new wind turbines and the overall magnitude of future offshore wind.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40974-022-00252-7.

Exploring the potential for planning support systems to bridge the research-translation gap between public health and urban planning

BACKGROUND

There is consensus that planning professionals need clearer guidance on the features that are likely to produce optimal community-wide health benefits. However, much of this evidence resides in academic literature and not in tools accessible to the diverse group of professionals shaping our cities. Incorporating health-related metrics into the planning support systems (PSS) provides an opportunity to apply empirical evidence on built environment relationships with health-related outcomes to inform real-world land use and transportation planning decisions. This paper explores the role of planning support systems (PSS) to facilitate the translation and application of health evidence into urban planning and design practices to create healthy, liveable communities.

METHODS

A review of PSS software and a literature review of studies featuring a PSS modelling built environmental features and health impact assessment for designing and creating healthy urban areas was undertaken. Customising existing software, a health impact PSS (the Urban Health Check) was then piloted with a real-world planning application to evaluate the usefulness and benefits of a health impact PSS for demonstrating and communicating potential health impacts of design scenarios in planning practice.

RESULTS

Eleven PSS software applications were identified, of which three were identified as having the capability to undertake health impact analyses. Three studies met the inclusion criteria of presenting a planning support system customised to support health impact assessment with health impacts modelled or estimated due to changes to the built environment. Evaluation results indicated the Urban Health Check PSS helped in four key areas: visualisation of how the neighbourhood would change in response to a proposed plan; understanding how a plan could benefit the community; Communicate and improve understanding health of planning and design decisions that positively impact health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of health-impact PSS have the potential to be transformative for the translation and application of health evidence into planning policy and practice, providing those responsible for the policy and practice of designing and creating our communities with access to quantifiable, evidence-based information about how their decisions might impact community health.

"Movement-enhancing footpaths" - A natural experiment on street design and physical activity in children in a deprived district of Leipzig, Germany

Despite the beneficial effects of physical activity (PA), only 26% of children in Germany meet the WHO’s recommendations. Because active play contributes to PA and is accepted by families, the creation of “playable” environments could promote PA. This study is a natural experiment that was conducted to investigate whether slight changes in the physical environment can increase PA in children. In autumn 2016, 140 students from two primary schools located in a deprived district of Leipzig (Germany) gathered ideas on PA-promoting street designs. After protracted negotiations with the city administration, two footpaths were decorated with colored markings (hopscotch grids, labyrinths, “mirror me”) in September 2019. 48 observations were made before (August 2019) and after (September/October 2019) the implementation using the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities (SOPARC). Age, gender, activity level, bike use, and interactions with the colored markings were recorded. A total of 5455 individuals (including 1099 cyclists) were observed. Almost one fifth of the observed children (0 to 12 years) interacted with the markings. There was a slight increase in vigorous activity in all observed individuals after the implementation (2.9% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.001). The chance for vigorous activity was higher on decorated footpaths (OR 2.45, CI 1.54–3.89, p < 0.001), for children (OR 19.32, CI 13.07–28.56, p < 0.001), and on Sundays (OR 3.39, CI 2.33–4.94, p < 0.001). The participatory development and design of footpaths that support spontaneous active play “on the way” might be one component that can be used to support changes in children’s PA behaviors and social interactions.

Community-based adaptation to climate change in villages of Western Province, Solomon Islands

People, local cultures and the environments they live in are complex and dynamic social-ecological systems that have evolved together over time and are continually affected by a myriad of factors, including climate and global changes. Escalating climate and global changes present an imminent threat to Pacific communities, particularly for food security, livelihoods, health and safety, cultural identity and biodiversity conservation. A participatory community-based climate change adaptation planning process was used to engage with communities on Rendova Island in Western Province, Solomon Islands to identify local adaptation priorities. The methodology recognized that local community members are the managers of the resources they use daily, have direct knowledge of the status of key local resources and have direct influence over ongoing resource governance. The study focused on two objectives: (1) identifying community priorities and documenting them in adaptation plans intended for local implementation, and (2) evaluating whether community adaptation priorities addressed key vulnerabilities identified independently using a semi-quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptation priorities identified by the communities encompassed: governance, leadership and planning; farming and livestock; sustainable livelihoods; natural resource management; and youth capacity building. The community adaptation priorities were found to address the key climate change vulnerabilities identified in the semi-quantitative assessment and also addressed additional drivers of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This finding reiterates the importance of fully inclusive and participatory vulnerability assessments and community-identification of adaptation priorities coupled with scientific climate projections to comprehensively assess the complexity of social-ecological systems. The climate change adaptation priorities have informed ongoing local actions and are intended to be used by communities, government and NGOs to focus local effort, funding and project development. A review of the suitability of the adaptation priorities by similar villages on neighbouring islands would determine the utility of scaling-up and applying these adaptations to other rural communities in the Solomon Islands, and possibly more widely in other Pacific communities.

Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views

Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis has been increasingly applied to spatial planning instruments in the last few years. Nevertheless, stakeholder participation in the land use modelling process and analysis is still low. This paper describes a methodology engaging stakeholders (from the land use planning, agriculture, and forest sectors) in the building and assessment of future LUCC scenarios. We selected as case study the Torres Vedras Municipality (Portugal), a peri-urban region near Lisbon. Our analysis encompasses a participatory workshop to analyse LUCC model outcomes, based on farmer LUCC intentions, for the following scenarios: A0 - current social and economic trend (Business as Usual); A1 - regional food security; A2 - climate change; and B0 - farming under urban pressure. This analysis allowed local stakeholders to develop and discuss their own views on the most plausible future LUCC for the following land use classes: artificial surfaces, non-irrigated arable land, permanently irrigated land, permanent crops and heterogeneous agricultural land, pastures, forest and semi-natural areas, and water bodies and wetlands. Subsequently, we spatialized these LUCC views into a hybrid model (Cellular Automata - Geographic Information Systems), identifying the most suitable land conversion areas. We refer to this model, implemented in NetLogo, as the stakeholder-LUCC model. The results presented in this paper model where, when, why, and what conversions may occur in the future in regard to stakeholders' points of view. These outcomes can better enable decision-makers to perform land use planning more efficiently and develop measures to prevent undesirable futures, particularly in extreme events such as scenarios of food security, climate change, and/or farming under pressure.

A qualitative appraisal of stakeholders' perspectives of a community-based primary health care program in rural Ghana

Background

The Ghana Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) initiative is a national strategy for improving access to primary health care services for underserved communities. Following a successful trial in the North Eastern part of the country, CHPS was adopted as Ghana’s flagship programme for achieving the Universal Health Coverage. Recent empirical evidence suggests, however, that scale-up of CHPS has not necessarily replicated the successes of the pilot study. This study examines the community’s perspective of the performance of CHPS and how the scale up could potentially align with the original experimental study.

Method

Applying a qualitative research methodology, this study analysed transcripts from 20 focus group discussions (FGDs) in four functional CHPS zones in separate districts of the Northern and Volta Regions of Ghana to understand the community’s assessment of CHPS. The study employed the thematic analysis to explore the content of the CHPS service provision, delivery and how community members feel about the service. In addition, ordinary least regression model was applied in interpreting 126 scores consigned to CHPS by the study respondents.

Results

Two broad areas of consensus were observed: general favourable and general unfavourable thematic areas. Favourable themes were informed by approval, appreciation, hard work and recognition of excellent services. The unfavourable thematic area was informed by rudeness, extortion, inappropriate and unprofessional behaviour, lack of basic equipment and disappointments. The findings show that mothers of children under the age of five, adolescent girls without children, and community leaders generally expressed favourable perceptions of CHPS while fathers of children under the age of five and adolescent boys without children had unfavourable expressions about the CHPS program. A narrow focus on maternal and child health explains the demographic divide on the perception of CHPS. The study revealed wide disparities in actual CHPS deliverables and community expectations.

Conclusions

A communication gap between health care providers and community members explains the high and unrealistic expectations of CHPS. Efforts to improve program acceptability and impact should address the need for more general outreach to social networks and men rather than a sole focus on facility-based maternal and child health care.

Are public meetings effective platforms for gathering environmental management preferences that most local stakeholders share?

This analysis tests the theory of the collective action problem by comparing data collected from public meetings with data collected through a random sample of households, to better understand how representative preferences expressed during public meetings are of local stakeholders within a defined social area of influence. While previous studies have focused on the lack of representative participation at public meetings, this work moves beyond the concepts of who comes to the table and why and instead, explores the way that a public engagement process, may or may not provide planners with a representative understanding of local stakeholder preferences. The findings suggest that even when starting with a comprehensive stakeholder analysis, creating space for facilitated dialogue, and carefully curating discussions to focus on shared preferences, public meetings - though highly valuable as a tool for engagement - may not be effective platforms for gathering a comprehensive understanding of the land management preferences that most local stakeholders share.

Planning support tools and their effects in participatory urban adaptation workshops

In the face of a changing climate, many cities are engaged in adaptation planning and are using participatory workshops to involve stakeholders in these initiatives. Different tools are being used to structure the process and content of participatory planning workshops, but it is unclear what effect the tools have on the workshops and their results. We evaluated three different tools (Group Model Building, the Adaptation Support Tool, and the Stress Test Guideline) and a tool-free approach in repeated simulated workshops, to observe and compare (1) the way workshops played out, and (2) the direct outcomes that were achieved. Tools appear to influence both aspects. Specifically, we measured differences in the learning effects in groups, in the development of shared understanding within groups, in the types of plans that are developed by groups, and in the nature of participation during the workshops. Further research is needed to translate these results into practice, but this is a first step in advancing knowledge about the influence of tools in participatory planning activities.

Evaluation of participatory planning: Lessons from Hungarian Natura 2000 management planning processes

Stakeholder participation in nature conservation policies and especially in the management of protected areas has gained importance in the last decades. These changes are underlined by democratic principles and the perceived contribution of stakeholder involvement to the effectiveness of conservation management. Evaluating participatory processes is essential to learn about the past and thus increase the quality of future processes. The evaluation can be useful for the organisations responsible for planning and management, stakeholders and policy makers as well. The present paper shows the results of a systematic evaluation of 25 participatory processes related to the development of management plans for Natura 2000 sites in Hungary between 2007 and 2015. A conceptual framework was developed to evaluate the process and outcome of participatory management planning processes. Criteria were based on the scientific literature on public participation and tailored to conservation-related management planning and stakeholder involvement. Evaluated processes were grouped in three cases based on their time range and financial sources. Overall, the analysed processes scored at a medium level, showing better performance in the process criteria than in the outcome criteria. The best case scored significantly higher in four criteria compared to the other cases: representativeness, resource availability for facilitation, new, creative ideas and impact on the plan. The main factors behind the success were (1) embeddedness of the planning process in a larger project, where the plan was a tool for conservation, (2) carrying out only one process at a time, (3) previous experience of facilitators and planners with participatory planning and (4) the opportunity and capacity to propose a payment scheme as an incentive. But even this case received low scores in some criteria: conflict resolution, early involvement and well defined goals. Based on the results we suggest that more data is needed to evaluate the implementation of the plans and, in many cases, the impact of the process on the plan. Performance can be improved with the assistance of policy makers by further developing guidelines, harmonising payment schemes with the conservation measures of the plans and providing training on conflict resolution. The evaluation framework proved to be suitable for the assessment of a large set of conservation related management planning processes, but it also had some limitations, e.g. concerning the incorporation of stakeholders' views in the evaluation.

Evaluating collaborative planning methods supporting programme-based planning in natural resource management

Programme-based Planning of Natural Resources (PBPNR) is an evolving planning frame for solving complex land use, environmental and forest management problems within hierarchically administrated funding and decision-making schemes. PBPNR acknowledges that an effective planning process requires the combined consideration of environmental, technological, economic and socio-political factors. To reach acceptability, commitment and operability, PBPNR processes need to foster collaboration and learning. For this study, an analysis of 43 collaborative planning methods was conducted to examine their potential to be applied within PBPNR. We present the approach of screening the applicability of methods for specific needs that may occur in PBPNR. The approach is based on a list of key criteria for the phases of a collaborative planning process: problem identification, problem modelling and problem solving. The features of each method were qualitatively assessed and peer-reviewed by a team of experts. Most of the methods are able to deal with qualitative data, support processes to increase transparency in planning and capture the preferences of the participating stakeholders. They also produce understandable results for the three phases. Contrarily, many methods do not offer features to handle uncertainty, nor do they satisfactorily stimulate creativity and innovation in the planning process. The results show that the overall applicability of the reviewed methods for the three planning phases varies according to a cluster analysis basing on the capabilities of the methods. Methods such as "Planning for Real", "Open Space" and "A'WOT" seem to be particularly promising for a broad range of planning situations.

Forming social capital--does participatory planning foster trust in institutions?

Participatory planning that includes interest groups and municipal representatives has been presented as a means to deal with the increasing difficulty to reach arrangements due to progressively scarce land resources. Under dispute is whether collaborative forms of planning augment social capital or whether they might actually cause the destruction of such a valuable social commodity. In this paper we focus on trust in institution as a specific dimension of social capital because we argue that this is one of the effects the convenors of such participatory planning procedures are most interested in. We pursue a pre-post design and survey advisory group members of five on-going river-related planning processes in Switzerland. Controlling for generalised trust, we investigate how trust in institutions is affected over time by the quality of such processes and the degree of participation they offer. We find that generalised trust is highly correlated with initial levels of trust and so is process quality. Particularly the latter finding challenges the usually assumed direction of causality according to which process quality influences trust building. Additionally, we find a positive (non-significant) effect of process quality on changes in trust, while a higher degree of participation rather seems to hinder trust building. We suppose this indicates that under the conditions of limited time and resources more attention should be paid to how to improve the quality of participatory processes than putting much effort in increasing the degree of participation.