Using the Primary care Academic CollaboraTive to explore the characteristics and healthcare use of older housebound patients in England: protocol for a retrospective observational study and clinician survey (the CHiP study)

BACKGROUND

Older housebound people are an under-researched group for whom achieving good primary health care can be resource intensive.

AIMS

To describe the characteristics and healthcare use of older (≥65 years) housebound people; explore clinician views on delivery of care to housebound people; and assess the feasibility of using a new network of healthcare professionals to deliver high quality research.

DESIGN & SETTING

Retrospective observational study of electronic GP records and clinician survey in England.

METHOD

Clinical members of a new UK research network called the Primary care Academic CollaboraTive (PACT) will collect the data. For part A, around 20 GP practices will be recruited and clinicians will identify 20 housebound and 20 non-housebound people, matched by age and gender (around 400 total in each group). Anonymised data will be collected on characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation decile), long-term conditions, prescribed medicines, quality of healthcare (via Quality Outcomes Framework targets), and continuity of care. Reports with benchmarked practice-level data will be provided to practices to identify areas for quality improvement and to enhance engagement. For part B, 2-4 clinicians will be recruited from around 50 practices in England (around 150 clinicians) to complete a survey about delivery of healthcare for housebound people. For part C, data will be collected to assess the feasibility of using the PACT network to deliver primary care research.

CONCLUSION

Older housebound people are a neglected group both in terms of research and clinical care. Understanding the characteristics and use of primary healthcare of housebound people will help identify how to improve their care.

Ideas, concerns, expectations, and effects on life (ICEE) in GP consultations: an observational study using video-recorded UK consultations

BACKGROUND

Eliciting patients' ideas, concerns, expectations, and whether a problem has an 'effect' on their life (ICEE), is a widely recommended communication technique. However, it is not known how frequently ICEE components are raised in UK GP consultations.

AIM

To assess the frequency of ICEE in routine GP consultations with adult patients and explore variables associated with ICEE.

DESIGN & SETTING

An observational study was undertaken. It involved secondary analysis of a pre-existing archive of video-recorded, face-to-face GP consultations in the UK.

METHOD

Observational coding of 92 consultations took place. Associations were assessed using binomial and ordered logistic regression.

RESULTS

Most consultations included at least one ICEE component (90.2%). The most common ICEE component per consultation was patient ideas (79.3%), followed by concerns (55.4%), expectations (51.1%), and then effects on life (42.4%). For all ICEE components patients more commonly initiated the ICEE dialogue, and in only three consultations (3.3%) did GPs directly ask patients about their expectations. Problems that were acute (odds ratio [OR] 2.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36 to 6.53, P = 0.007) or assessed by GPs aged ≥50 years (OR 2.10, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.13, P = 0.030) were associated with more ICEE components. Problems assessed later in the consultation (OR 0.60 per problem order increase, 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.87, P = 0.007) by patients aged ≥75 years (OR 0.40, 95% CI = 0.16 to 0.98, P = 0.046) and from the most deprived cohort (OR 0.39, 95% CI = 0.17 to 0.92, P = 0.032) were associated with fewer ICEE components. Patient ideas were associated with more patients being 'very satisfied' post-consultation (OR 10.74, 95% CI = 1.60 to 72.0, P = 0.014) and the opposite was true of concerns (OR 0.14, 95% CI = 0.02 to 0.86, P = 0.034).

CONCLUSION

ICEE components were associated with patient satisfaction and demographic variables. Further research is required to assess if the way ICEE are communicated affects these associations and other potential confounders.

Educational inequality in multimorbidity: causality and causal pathways. A mendelian randomisation study in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, typically defined as having two or more long-term health conditions, is associated with reduced wellbeing and life expectancy. Understanding the determinants of multimorbidity, including whether they are causal, may help with the design and prioritisation of prevention interventions. This study seeks to assess the causality of education, BMI, smoking and alcohol as determinants of multimorbidity, and the degree to which BMI, smoking and alcohol mediate differences in multimorbidity by level of education.

METHODS

Participants were 181,214 females and 155,677 males, mean ages 56.7 and 57.1 years respectively, from UK Biobank. We used a Mendelian randomization design; an approach that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to interrogate causality.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity was 55.1%. Mendelian randomization suggests that lower education, higher BMI and higher levels of smoking causally increase the risk of multimorbidity. For example, one standard deviation (equivalent to 5.1 years) increase in genetically-predicted years of education decreases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.0% (95% CI: 6.5 to 11.4%). A 5 kg/m2 increase in genetically-predicted BMI increases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1 to 10.3%) and a one SD higher lifetime smoking index increases the risk of multimorbidity by 6.8% (95% CI: 3.3 to 10.4%). Evidence for a causal effect of genetically-predicted alcohol consumption on multimorbidity was less strong; an increase of 5 units of alcohol per week increases the risk of multimorbidity by 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.5%). The proportions of the association between education and multimorbidity explained by BMI and smoking are 20.4% and 17.6% respectively. Collectively, BMI and smoking account for 31.8% of the educational inequality in multimorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption are intervenable causal risk factors for multimorbidity. Furthermore, BMI and lifetime smoking make a considerable contribution to the generation of educational inequalities in multimorbidity. Public health interventions that improve population-wide levels of these risk factors are likely to reduce multimorbidity and inequalities in its occurrence.

The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

Antihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment.

The association of strong opioids and antibiotics prescribing with general practitioner burnout

Background: Prescribing of strong-opioids and antibiotics has important implications for patient safety. General Practitioner (GP) wellness can affect the overprescribing of both medications in primary care. Aim: To examine the associations between strong opioid and antibiotic prescribing with practice-weighted GP-burnout and wellness scores. Design and Setting: A cross-sectional study using prescription data on strong-opioids/antibiotics from the Oxford-RCGP-RSC linking to a GP-wellbeing survey overlaying the same 4-month period December2019-April2020. Methods: Adult prescriptions were measured as tablets per-patient. Burnout in GPs was measured using the shortened versions of the emotional exhaustion and depersonalisation dimensions. Association was examined by fitting a multilevel generalised-linear-model with negative-binomial distribution. Results: Data for 40,227 patients (13,483 strong opioids and 26,744 antibiotics) were linked to 57 practices and 320 GPs. Greater strong opioid prescribing was associated with increased emotional exhaustion (IRR 1.19, 95%CI 1.10-1.24), depersonalisation (1.10, 1.01-1.16), job dissatisfaction (1.25, 1.19-1.32), diagnostic-uncertainty (1.12, 1.08-1.19) and turnover intention (1.32, 1.27-1.37) in GPs. Greater antibiotic prescribing was associated with increased emotional exhaustion (1.19, 1.05-1.37), depersonalisation (1.24, 1.08-1.49), job dissatisfaction (1.11, 1.04-1.19), sickness-presenteeism (1.18, 1.11-1.25) and turnover intention (1.38, 1.31-1.45) in GPs. Increased strong-opioid and antibiotic prescribing was also found in GPs working longer hours (3.95, 3.39-4.61; 5.02, 4.07-6.19, respectively) and in practices in the north of England (1.96, 1.61-2.33; 1.56, 1.12-3.70, respectively). Conclusion: We found higher rates of prescribing of strong opioids/antibiotics in practices with GPs with more burnout symptoms, job dissatisfaction and turnover intentions, working longer hours and in practices in the north of England serving more deprived populations.

Improving Medicines use in People with Polypharmacy in Primary Care (IMPPP): Protocol for a multicentre cluster randomised trial comparing a complex intervention for medication optimization against usual care

Introduction

Polypharmacy is increasingly common, and associated with undesirable consequences. Polypharmacy management necessitates balancing therapeutic benefits and risks, and varying clinical and patient priorities. Current guidance for managing polypharmacy is not supported by high quality evidence. The aim of the Improving Medicines use in People with Polypharmacy in Primary Care (IMPPP) trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention to optimise medication use for patients with polypharmacy in a general practice setting.

Methods

This trial will use a multicentre, open-label, cluster-randomised controlled approach, with two parallel groups. Practices will be randomised to a complex intervention comprising structured medication review (including interprofessional GP/pharmacist treatment planning and patient-facing review) supported by performance feedback, financial incentivisation, clinician training and clinical informatics (intervention), or usual care (control). Patients with polypharmacy and triggering potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) indicators will be recruited in each practice using a computerised search of health records. 37 practices will recruit 50 patients, and review them over a 26-week intervention delivery period. The primary outcome is the mean number of PIP indicators triggered per patient at 26 weeks follow-up, determined objectively from coded GP electronic health records. Secondary outcomes will include patient reported outcome measures, and health and care service use. The main intention-to-treat analysis will use linear mixed effects regression to compare number of PIP indicators triggered at 26 weeks post-review between groups, adjusted for baseline (pre-randomisation) values. A nested process evaluation will explore implementation of the intervention in primary care.

Ethics and dissemination

The protocol and associated study materials have been approved by the Wales REC 6, NHS Research Ethics Committee (REC reference 19/WA/0090), host institution and Health Research Authority. Research outputs will be published in peer-reviewed journals and relevant conferences, and additionally disseminated to patients and the public, clinicians, commissioners and policy makers.

ISRCTN Registration

90146150 (28/03/2019).

Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and externally validate the STRAtifying Treatments In the multi-morbid Frail elderlY (STRATIFY)-Falls clinical prediction model to identify the risk of hospital admission or death from a fall in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Primary care data from electronic health records contained within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 40 years or older with at least one blood pressure measurement between 130 mm Hg and 179 mm Hg.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

First serious fall, defined as hospital admission or death with a primary diagnosis of a fall within 10 years of the index date (12 months after cohort entry). Model development was conducted using a Fine-Gray approach in data from CPRD GOLD, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes, with subsequent recalibration at one, five, and 10 years using pseudo values. External validation was conducted using data from CPRD Aurum, with performance assessed through calibration curves and the observed to expected ratio, C statistic, and D statistic, pooled across general practices, and clinical utility using decision curve analysis at thresholds around 10%.

RESULTS

Analysis included 1 772 600 patients (experiencing 62 691 serious falls) from CPRD GOLD used in model development, and 3 805 366 (experiencing 206 956 serious falls) from CPRD Aurum in the external validation. The final model consisted of 24 predictors, including age, sex, ethnicity, alcohol consumption, living in an area of high social deprivation, a history of falls, multiple sclerosis, and prescriptions of antihypertensives, antidepressants, hypnotics, and anxiolytics. Upon external validation, the recalibrated model showed good discrimination, with pooled C statistics of 0.833 (95% confidence interval 0.831 to 0.835) and 0.843 (0.841 to 0.844) at five and 10 years, respectively. Original model calibration was poor on visual inspection and although this was improved with recalibration, under-prediction of risk remained (observed to expected ratio at 10 years 1.839, 95% confidence interval 1.811 to 1.865). Nevertheless, decision curve analysis suggests potential clinical utility, with net benefit larger than other strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

This prediction model uses commonly recorded clinical characteristics and distinguishes well between patients at high and low risk of falls in the next 1-10 years. Although miscalibration was evident on external validation, the model still had potential clinical utility around risk thresholds of 10% and so could be useful in routine clinical practice to help identify those at high risk of falls who might benefit from closer monitoring or early intervention to prevent future falls. Further studies are needed to explore the appropriate thresholds that maximise the model's clinical utility and cost effectiveness.

Association between continuity of primary care and both prescribing and adherence of common cardiovascular medications: a cohort study among patients in England

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether better continuity of care is associated with increased prescribing of clinically relevant medication and improved medication adherence.

SETTING

Random sample of 300 000 patients aged 30+ in 2017 within 83 English general practitioner (GP) practices from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

DESIGN

Patients were assigned to a randomly selected index date in 2017 on which medication use and continuity of care were determined. Adjusted associations between continuity of care and the prescribing and adherence of five cardiovascular medication groups were examined using logistic regression.

PARTICIPANTS

Continuity of Care Index was calculated for 173 993 patients with 4+ GP consultations 2 years prior to their index date and divided into five categories: absence of continuity, below-average continuity, average, above-average continuity and perfect continuity.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

(A) Prescription for statins (primary or secondary prevention separately), anticoagulants, antiplatelet agents and antihypertensives covering the patient's index date. (B) Adherence (>80%) estimated using medication possession ratio.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence (p<0.01) that prescription of all five cardiovascular medication groups increased with greater continuity of care. Patients with absence of continuity were less likely to be prescribed cardiovascular medications than patients with above-average continuity (statins primary prevention OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.85; statins secondary prevention 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03; antiplatelets 0.55, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.92; antihypertensives 0.51, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.65). Furthermore, patients with perfect continuity were more likely to be prescribed cardiovascular medications than those with above-average continuity (statins primary prevention OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.49; statins secondary prevention 1.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.71; antiplatelets 1.37, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.74; antihypertensives 1.10, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23). Continuity was generally not associated with medication adherence, except for adherence to statins for secondary prevention (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.94 for average compared with above-average continuity).

CONCLUSION

Better continuity of care is associated with improved prescribing of medication to patients at higher risk of cardiovascular disease but does not appear to be related to patient's medication adherence.

Antidepressant use and risk of adverse outcomes: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antidepressants are one of the most widely prescribed drugs in the global north. However, little is known about the health consequences of long-term treatment.

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the association between antidepressant use and adverse events.

METHOD

The study cohort consisted of UK Biobank participants whose data was linked to primary care records (N = 222 121). We assessed the association between antidepressant use by drug class (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and 'other') and four morbidity (diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CV)) and two mortality (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause) outcomes, using Cox's proportional hazards model at 5- and 10-year follow-up.

RESULTS

SSRI treatment was associated with decreased risk of diabetes at 5 years (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.83) and 10 years (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.87), and hypertension at 10 years (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.89). At 10-year follow-up, SSRI treatment was associated with increased risks of CV (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.77), CVD mortality (hazard ratio 1.87, 95% CI 1.38-2.53) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.73, 95% CI 1.48-2.03), and 'other' class treatment was associated with increased risk of CHD (hazard ratio 1.99, 95% CI 1.31-3.01), CVD (hazard ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.10-3.15) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.20, 95% CI 1.71-2.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate an association between long-term antidepressant usage and elevated risks of CHD, CVD mortality and all-cause mortality. Further research is needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal, and elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Association between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and later risk of cardiovascular outcomes

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are common pregnancy complications that are associated with greater cardiovascular disease risk for mothers. However, risk of cardiovascular disease subtypes associated with gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia is unclear. The present study aims to compare the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes for women with and without a history of gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia using national hospital admissions data.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of national medical records from all National Health Service hospitals in England. Women who had one or more singleton live births in England between 1997 and 2015 were included in the analysis. Risk of total cardiovascular disease and 19 pre-specified cardiovascular disease subtypes, including stroke, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy and peripheral arterial disease, was calculated separately for women with a history of gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia compared to normotensive pregnancies.

RESULTS

Amongst 2,359,386 first live births, there were 85,277 and 74,542 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia, respectively. During 18 years (16,309,386 person-years) of follow-up, the number and incidence of total CVD for normotensive women, women with prior gestational hypertension and women with prior pre-eclampsia were n = 8668, 57.1 (95% CI: 55.9-58.3) per 100,000 person-years; n = 521, 85.8 (78.6-93.5) per 100,000 person-years; and n = 518, 99.3 (90.9-108.2) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Adjusted HRs (aHR) for total CVD were aHR (95% CI) = 1.45 (1.33-1.59) for women with prior gestational hypertension and aHR = 1.62 (1.48-1.78) for women with prior pre-eclampsia. Gestational hypertension was strongly associated with dilated cardiomyopathy, aHR = 2.85 (1.67-4.86), and unstable angina, aHR = 1.92 (1.33-2.77). Pre-eclampsia was strongly associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, aHR = 3.27 (1.49-7.19), and acute myocardial infarction, aHR = 2.46 (1.72-3.53). Associations were broadly homogenous across cardiovascular disease subtypes and increased with a greater number of affected pregnancies.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with either previous gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia are at greater risk of a range of cardiovascular outcomes. These women may benefit from clinical risk assessment or early interventions to mitigate their greater risk of various cardiovascular outcomes.

Development of a model of medication review for use in clinical practice: Bristol medication review model

BACKGROUND

Medication review is a core aspect of medicine optimisation, yet existing models of review vary substantially in structure and content and are not necessarily easy to implement in clinical practice. This study aimed to use evidence from the existing literature to identify key medication review components and use this to inform the design of an improved review model.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted (PROSPERO: CRD42018109788) to identify randomised control trials of stand-alone medication review in adults (18+ years). The review updated that by Huiskes et al. (BMC Fam Pract. 18:5, 2017), using the same search strategy implemented in MEDLINE and Embase. Studies were assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Key review components were identified, alongside relevant clinical and health service outcomes. A working group (patients, doctors and pharmacists) developed the model through an iterative consensus process (appraisal of documents plus group discussions), working from the systematic review findings, brief evidence summaries for core review components and examples of previous models, to agree on the main purpose of the review model, overarching model structure, review components and supporting material.

RESULTS

We identified 28 unique studies, with moderate bias overall. Consistent medication review components included reconciliation (26 studies), safety assessment (22), suboptimal treatment (19), patient knowledge/preferences (18), adherence (14), over-the-counter therapy (13) and drug monitoring (10). There was limited evidence from studies for improvement in key clinical outcomes. The review structure was underpinned by patient values and preferences, with parallel information gathering and evaluation stages, feeding into the final decision-making and implementation. Most key components identified in the literature were included. The final model was considered to benefit from a patient-centred, holistic approach, which captured both patient-orientated and medication-focused problems, and aligned with traditional consultation methods thus facilitating implementation in practice.

CONCLUSIONS

The Bristol Medication Review Model provides a framework for standardised delivery of structured reviews. The model has the potential for use by all healthcare professionals with relevant clinical experience and is designed to offer flexibility of implementation not limited to a particular healthcare setting.

Regression discontinuity analysis for pharmacovigilance: statin example reflected trial findings showing little evidence of harm

•

RDA can be used with routine healthcare data, resulting in findings similar to Randomized controlled trials.

•

Application of regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) in epidemiology should include examination of the assumptions.

•

RDA should employ sensitivity analyses and negative control analyses.

•

RDA should carefully consider choice of model and bandwidth.

Objectives

The study aims to explore the use of regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) to examine effects of prescription of statins on total cholesterol and adverse outcomes (type 2 diabetes, rhabdomyolysis and myopathy, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, and mortality).

Study Design and Setting

We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink including patients with QRISK scores of 10 to 30 in 2010 to 2013 who were last followed-up in October 2016. Comparing patients with QRISK≥20 and QRISK<20, we explored RDA assumptions, provided proof of concept analyses (total cholesterol as outcome), and investigated the effect of statins prescription on adverse outcomes.

Result

RDA confirmed statin prescription reduced total cholesterol (Mean difference (MD) -1.33 mmol/L, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) -1.93 to -0.73). RDA provided little evidence for adverse effects on diabetes, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, or mortality. The RDA analysis findings are similar to RCT results. Findings from non-RDA analysis agree with published observational studies.

Conclusion

RDA can be used with large routine clinical datasets to provide evidence on effects of medications which are prescribed according to a threshold. Testable RDA assumptions were satisfied, but confidence intervals were wide, partly due to the low compliance with the prescribing threshold.

Novel oral iron therapy for iron deficiency anaemia: How to value safety in a new drug?

AIMS

Novel oral iron supplements may be associated with a reduced incidence of adverse drug reactions compared to standard treatments of iron deficiency anaemia. The aim was to establish their value-based price under conditions of uncertainty surrounding their tolerability.

METHODS

A discrete-time Markov model was developed to assess the value-based price of oral iron preparations based on their incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from the perspective of the NHS in the UK. Primary and secondary care resource use and health state occupancy probabilities were estimated from routine electronic health records; and unit costs and health state utilities were derived from published sources. Patients were pre-menopausal women with iron deficiency anaemia who were prescribed oral iron supplementation between 2000 and 2014.

RESULTS

The model reflecting current use of iron salts yielded a mean total cost to the NHS of £779, and 0.84 QALYs over 12 months. If a new iron preparation were to reduce the risk of adverse drug reactions by 30-40%, then its value-based price, based on a threshold of £20 000 per QALY, would be in the region of £10-£13 per month, or about 7-9 times the average price of basic iron salts.

CONCLUSIONS

There are no adequate, direct comparisons of new oral iron supplements to ferrous iron salts, and therefore other approaches are needed to assess their value. Our modelling shows that they are potentially cost-effective at prices that are an order of magnitude higher than existing iron salts.

Epidemiology of pleural empyema in English hospitals and the impact of influenza

Pleural empyema represents a significant healthcare burden due to extended hospital admissions and potential requirement for surgical intervention. This study aimed to assess changes in incidence and management of pleural empyema in England over the past 10 years and the potential impact of influenza on rates.Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify patients admitted to English hospitals with pleural empyema between 2008 and 2018. Linear regression was used to analyse the relationship between empyema rates and influenza incidence recorded by Public Health England. The relationship between influenza and empyema was further explored using serological data from a prospective cohort study of patients presenting with pleural empyema.Between April 2008 and March 2018 there were 55 530 patients admitted with pleural empyema. There was male predominance (67% versus 33%), which increased with age. Cases have increased significantly from 4447 in 2008 to 7268 in 2017. Peaks of incidence correlated moderately with rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in children and young adults (r=0.30). For nine of the 10 years studied, the highest annual point incidence of influenza coincided with the highest admission rate for empyema (with a 2-week lag). In a cohort study of patients presenting to a single UK hospital with pleural empyema/infection, 24% (17 out of 72) had serological evidence of recent influenza infection, compared to 7% in seasonally matched controls with simple parapneumonic or cardiogenic effusions (p<0.001).Rates of empyema admissions in England have increased steadily with a seasonal variation that is temporally related to influenza incidence. Patient-level serological data from a prospective study support the hypothesis that influenza may play a pathogenic role in empyema development.

International prescribing patterns and polypharmacy in older people with advanced chronic kidney disease: results from the European Quality study

BACKGROUND

People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of polypharmacy. However, no previous study has investigated international prescribing patterns in this group. This article aims to examine prescribing and polypharmacy patterns among older people with advanced CKD across the countries involved in the European Quality (EQUAL) study.

METHODS

The EQUAL study is an international prospective cohort study of patients ≥65 years of age with advanced CKD. Baseline demographic, clinical and medication data were analysed and reported descriptively. Polypharmacy was defined as ≥5 medications and hyperpolypharmacy as ≥10. Univariable and multivariable linear regressions were used to determine associations between country and the number of prescribed medications. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine associations between country and hyperpolypharmacy.

RESULTS

Of the 1317 participants from five European countries, 91% were experiencing polypharmacy and 43% were experiencing hyperpolypharmacy. Cardiovascular medications were the most prescribed medications (mean 3.5 per person). There were international differences in prescribing, with significantly greater hyperpolypharmacy in Germany {odds ratio (OR) 2.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73-4.37]; P < 0.001, reference group UK}, the Netherlands [OR 1.91 (95% CI 1.32-2.76); P = 0.001] and Italy [OR 1.57 (95% CI 1.15-2.15); P = 0.004]. People in Poland experienced the least hyperpolypharmacy [OR 0.39 (95% CI 0.17-0.87); P = 0.021].

CONCLUSIONS

Hyperpolypharmacy is common among older people with advanced CKD, with significant international differences in the number of medications prescribed. Practice variation may represent a lack of consensus regarding appropriate prescribing for this high-risk group for whom pharmacological treatment has great potential for harm as well as benefit.

Blood Pressure Changes Following Antihypertensive Medication Reduction, by Drug Class and Dose Chosen for Withdrawal: Exploratory Analysis of Data From the OPTiMISE Trial

Aims: Deprescribing of antihypertensive drugs is recommended for some older patients with polypharmacy, but there is little evidence to inform which drug (or dose) should be withdrawn. This study used data from the OPTiMISE trial to examine whether short-term outcomes of deprescribing vary by drug class and dose of medication withdrawn. Methods: The OPTiMISE trial included patients aged ≥80 years with controlled systolic blood pressure (SBP; <150 mmHg), receiving ≥2 antihypertensive medications. This study compared SBP control, mean change in SBP and frequency of adverse events after 12 weeks in participants stopping one medication vs. usual care, by drug class and equivalent dose of medication withdrawn. Equivalent dose was determined according to the defined daily dose (DDD) of each medication type. Drugs prescribed below the DDD were classed as low dose and those prescribed at ≥DDD were described as higher dose. Outcomes were examined by generalized linear mixed effects models. Results: A total of 569 participants were randomized, aged 85 ± 3 years with controlled blood pressure (mean 130/69 mmHg). Within patients prescribed calcium channel blockers, higher dose medications were more commonly selected for withdrawal (90 vs. 10%). In those prescribed beta-blockers, low dose medications were more commonly chosen (87 vs. 13%). Withdrawal of calcium channel blockers was associated with an increase in SBP (5 mmHg, 95%CI 0-10 mmHg) and reduced SBP control (adjusted RR 0.89, 95%CI 0.80-0.998) compared to usual care. In contrast, withdrawal of beta-blockers was associated with no change in SBP (-4 mmHg, 95%CI -10 to 2 mmHg) and no difference in SBP control (adjusted RR 1.15, 95%CI 0.96-1.37). Similarly, withdrawal of higher dose medications was associated with an increase in SBP but no change in BP control. Withdrawal of lower dose medications was not associated with a difference in SBP or SBP control. There was no association between withdrawal of specific drug classes and adverse events. Conclusion: These exploratory data suggest withdrawal of higher dose calcium channel blockers should be avoided if the goal is to maintain BP control. However, low dose beta-blockers may be removed with little impact on blood pressure over 12-weeks of follow-up. Larger studies are needed to confirm these associations.

The Use of Primary Care Big Data in Understanding the Pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19: A Consensus Statement From the COVID-19 Primary Care Database Consortium

The use of big data containing millions of primary care medical records provides an opportunity for rapid research to help inform patient care and policy decisions during the first and subsequent waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Routinely collected primary care data have previously been used for national pandemic surveillance, quantifying associations between exposures and outcomes, identifying high risk populations, and examining the effects of interventions at scale, but there is no consensus on how to effectively conduct or report these data for COVID-19 research. A COVID-19 primary care database consortium was established in April 2020 and its researchers have ongoing COVID-19 projects in overlapping data sets with over 40 million primary care records in the United Kingdom that are variously linked to public health, secondary care, and vital status records. This consensus agreement is aimed at facilitating transparency and rigor in methodological approaches, and consistency in defining and reporting cases, exposures, confounders, stratification variables, and outcomes in relation to the pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19. This will facilitate comparison, validation, and meta-analyses of research during and after the pandemic.

Association between antihypertensive treatment and adverse events: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between antihypertensive treatment and specific adverse events.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials of adults receiving antihypertensives compared with placebo or no treatment, more antihypertensive drugs compared with fewer antihypertensive drugs, or higher blood pressure targets compared with lower targets. To avoid small early phase trials, studies were required to have at least 650 patient years of follow-up.

INFORMATION SOURCES

Searches were conducted in Embase, Medline, CENTRAL, and the Science Citation Index databases from inception until 14 April 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was falls during trial follow-up. Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury, fractures, gout, hyperkalaemia, hypokalaemia, hypotension, and syncope. Additional outcomes related to death and major cardiovascular events were extracted. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, and random effects meta-analysis was used to pool rate ratios, odds ratios, and hazard ratios across studies, allowing for between study heterogeneity (τ2).

RESULTS

Of 15 023 articles screened for inclusion, 58 randomised controlled trials were identified, including 280 638 participants followed up for a median of 3 (interquartile range 2-4) years. Most of the trials (n=40, 69%) had a low risk of bias. Among seven trials reporting data for falls, no evidence was found of an association with antihypertensive treatment (summary risk ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.24, τ2=0.009). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.39, τ2=0.037, n=15), hyperkalaemia (1.89, 1.56 to 2.30, τ2=0.122, n=26), hypotension (1.97, 1.67 to 2.32, τ2=0.132, n=35), and syncope (1.28, 1.03 to 1.59, τ2=0.050, n=16). The heterogeneity between studies assessing acute kidney injury and hyperkalaemia events was reduced when focusing on drugs that affect the renin angiotensin-aldosterone system. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses focusing on adverse events leading to withdrawal from each trial. Antihypertensive treatment was associated with a reduced risk of all cause mortality, cardiovascular death, and stroke, but not of myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis found no evidence to suggest that antihypertensive treatment is associated with falls but found evidence of an association with mild (hyperkalaemia, hypotension) and severe adverse events (acute kidney injury, syncope). These data could be used to inform shared decision making between doctors and patients about initiation and continuation of antihypertensive treatment, especially in patients at high risk of harm because of previous adverse events or poor renal function.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018116860.

A multi-stakeholder approach to the co-production of the research agenda for medicines optimisation

BACKGROUND

Up to 50% of medicines are not used as intended, resulting in poor health and economic outcomes. Medicines optimisation is 'a person-centred approach to safe and effective medicines use, to ensure people obtain the best possible outcomes from their medicines'. The purpose of this exercise was to co-produce a prioritised research agenda for medicines optimisation using a multi-stakeholder (patient, researcher, public and health professionals) approach.

METHODS

A three-stage, multiple method process was used including: generation of preliminary research questions (Stage 1) using a modified Nominal Group Technique; electronic consultation and ranking with a wider multi-stakeholder group (Stage 2); a face-to-face, one-day consensus meeting involving representatives from all stakeholder groups (Stage 3).

RESULTS

In total, 92 research questions were identified during Stages 1 and 2 and ranked in order of priority during stage 3. Questions were categorised into four areas: 'Patient Concerns' [e.g. is there a shared decision (with patients) about using each medicine?], 'Polypharmacy' [e.g. how to design health services to cope with the challenge of multiple medicines use?], 'Non-Medical Prescribing' [e.g. how can the contribution of non-medical prescribers be optimised in primary care?], and 'Deprescribing' [e.g. what support is needed by prescribers to deprescribe?]. A significant number of the 92 questions were generated by Patient and Public Involvement representatives, which demonstrates the importance of including this stakeholder group when identifying research priorities.

CONCLUSIONS

A wide range of research questions was generated reflecting concerns which affect patients, practitioners, the health service, as well the ethical and philosophical aspects of the prescribing and deprescribing of medicines. These questions should be used to set future research agendas and funding commissions.

Aspirin reduces cardiovascular events in patients with pneumonia: a prior event rate ratio analysis in a large primary care database

BACKGROUND

Ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) are common after pneumonia and are associated with long-term mortality. Aspirin may attenuate this risk and should be explored as a therapeutic option.

METHODS

We extracted all patients with pneumonia (aged over 50 years) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large UK primary care database, from inception until January 2019. We then performed a prior event rate ratio (PERR) analysis with propensity score matching (PSM), an approach that allows for control of measured and unmeasured confounding, with aspirin usage as the exposure and ischaemic events as the outcome. The primary outcome was the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke and MI. Secondary outcomes were ischaemic stroke and MI individually. Relevant confounders (smoking, comorbidities, age and gender) were included in the analysis.

FINDINGS

48 743 patients were eligible for matching. Of these, 9864 were aspirin users who were matched to 9864 non-users. Aspirin users had a reduced risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.52-0.79) in the PERR analysis. For both secondary outcomes, aspirin use was also associated with a reduced risk for MI (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.30-0.72) and stroke (hazard ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.91), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides supporting evidence that aspirin use is associated with reduced ischaemic events after pneumonia in a primary care setting. This drug may have a future clinical role in preventing this important complication.

Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score

BACKGROUND

Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources.

METHODS

We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. We extracted development (n = 300 000) and validation (n = 150 000) samples from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We constructed a general-outcome multimorbidity score by averaging the standardized weights of the separate outcome scores. We compared performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index.

RESULTS

Models that included all 37 conditions were acceptable predictors of general practitioner consultations (C-index 0.732, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.734), unplanned hospital admission (C-index 0.742, 95% CI 0.737-0.747) and death at 1 year (C-index 0.912, 95% CI 0.905-0.918). Models reduced to the 20 conditions with the greatest combined prevalence/weight showed similar predictive ability (C-indices 0.727, 95% CI 0.725-0.728; 0.738, 95% CI 0.732-0.743; and 0.910, 95% CI 0.904-0.917, respectively). They also predicted 5-year outcomes similarly for consultations and death (C-indices 0.735, 95% CI 0.734-0.736, and 0.889, 95% CI 0.885-0.892, respectively) but performed less well for admissions (C-index 0.708, 95% CI 0.705-0.712). The performance of the general-outcome score was similar to that of the outcome-specific models. These models performed significantly better than those based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index for consultations (C-index 0.691, 95% CI 0.690-0.693) and admissions (C-index 0.703, 95% CI 0.697-0.709) and similarly for mortality (C-index 0.907, 95% CI 0.900-0.914).

INTERPRETATION

The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score is robust and can be either tailored or not tailored to specific health outcomes. It will be valuable to those planning clinical services, policymakers allocating resources and researchers seeking to account for the effect of multimorbidity.

Effect of Antihypertensive Medication Reduction vs Usual Care on Short-term Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Hypertension Aged 80 Years and Older: The OPTIMISE Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications is recommended for some older patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity when the benefits of continued treatment may not outweigh the harms.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish whether antihypertensive medication reduction is possible without significant changes in systolic blood pressure control or adverse events during 12-week follow-up.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Optimising Treatment for Mild Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly (OPTIMISE) study was a randomized, unblinded, noninferiority trial conducted in 69 primary care sites in England. Participants, whose primary care physician considered them appropriate for medication reduction, were aged 80 years and older, had systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg, and were receiving at least 2 antihypertensive medications were included. Participants enrolled between April 2017 and September 2018 and underwent follow-up until January 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized (1:1 ratio) to a strategy of antihypertensive medication reduction (removal of 1 drug [intervention], n = 282) or usual care (control, n = 287), in which no medication changes were mandated.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12-week follow-up. The prespecified noninferiority margin was a relative risk (RR) of 0.90. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of participants maintaining medication reduction and differences in blood pressure, frailty, quality of life, adverse effects, and serious adverse events.

RESULTS

Among 569 patients randomized (mean age, 84.8 years; 276 [48.5%] women; median of 2 antihypertensive medications prescribed at baseline), 534 (93.8%) completed the trial. Overall, 229 (86.4%) patients in the intervention group and 236 (87.7%) patients in the control group had a systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12 weeks (adjusted RR, 0.98 [97.5% 1-sided CI, 0.92 to ∞]). Of 7 prespecified secondary end points, 5 showed no significant difference. Medication reduction was sustained in 187 (66.3%) participants at 12 weeks. Mean change in systolic blood pressure was 3.4 mm Hg (95% CI, 1.1 to 5.8 mm Hg) higher in the intervention group compared with the control group. Twelve (4.3%) participants in the intervention group and 7 (2.4%) in the control group reported at least 1 serious adverse event (adjusted RR, 1.72 [95% CI, 0.7 to 4.3]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among older patients treated with multiple antihypertensive medications, a strategy of medication reduction, compared with usual care, was noninferior with regard to systolic blood pressure control at 12 weeks. The findings suggest antihypertensive medication reduction in some older patients with hypertension is not associated with substantial change in blood pressure control, although further research is needed to understand long-term clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT Identifier: 2016-004236-38; ISRCTN identifier: 97503221.

Characteristics, service use and mortality of clusters of multimorbid patients in England: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is associated with mortality and service use, with specific types of multimorbidity having differential effects. Additionally, multimorbidity is often negatively associated with participation in research cohorts. Therefore, we set out to identify clusters of multimorbidity patients and how they are differentially associated with mortality and service use across age groups in a population-representative sample.

METHODS

Linked primary and secondary care electronic health records contributed by 382 general practices in England to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used. The study included a representative set of multimorbid adults (18 years old or more, N = 113,211) with two or more long-term conditions (a total of 38 conditions were included). A random set of 80% of the multimorbid patients (N = 90,571) were stratified by age groups and clustered using latent class analysis. Consistency between obtained multimorbidity phenotypes, classification quality and associations with demographic characteristics and primary outcomes (GP consultations, hospitalisations, regular medications and mortality) was validated in the remaining 20% of multimorbid patients (N = 22,640).

RESULTS

We identified 20 patient clusters across four age strata. The clusters with the highest mortality comprised psychoactive substance and alcohol misuse (aged 18-64); coronary heart disease, depression and pain (aged 65-84); and coronary heart disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation (aged 85+). The clusters with the highest service use coincided with those with the highest mortality for people aged over 65. For people aged 18-64, the cluster with the highest service use comprised depression, anxiety and pain. The majority of 85+-year-old multimorbid patients belonged to the cluster with the lowest service use and mortality for that age range. Pain featured in 13 clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

This work has highlighted patterns of multimorbidity that have implications for health services. These include the importance of psychoactive substance and alcohol misuse in people under the age of 65, of co-morbid depression and coronary heart disease in people aged 65-84 and of cardiovascular disease in people aged 85+.

The impact of a named GP scheme on continuity of care and emergency hospital admission: a cohort study among older patients in England, 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the introduction of a named general practitioner (GP, family physician) improved patients' healthcare for patients aged 75 and over in England.

SETTING

Random sample of 27 500 patients aged 65 to 84 in 2012 within 139 English practices from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort approach, measuring patients' GP consultations and emergency hospital admissions 2 years before/after the intervention. Patients were grouped in (i) aged over 74 and (ii) younger than 75 in both periods in order to compare who were or were not subject to the intervention. Adjusted associations between the named GP scheme, continuity of care and emergency hospital admission were examined using multilevel modelling.

INTERVENTION

National Health Service policy to introduce a named accountable GP for patients aged over 74 in April 2014.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

(A) Continuity of care index-score, (B) risk of emergency hospital admissions, (C) number of emergency hospital admissions.

RESULTS

The intervention was associated with a decrease in continuity index-scores of -0.024 (95% CI -0.030 to -0.018, p<0.001); there were no differences in the decrease between the two age groups (-0.005, 95% CI -0.014 to 0.005). In the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods, respectively, 15.4% and 19.4% patients had an emergency admission. The probability of an emergency hospital admission increased after the intervention (OR 1.156, 95% CI 1.064 to 1.257, p=0.001); this increase was bigger for patients over 74 (relative OR 1.191, 95% CI 1.066 to 1.330, p=0.002). The average number of emergency hospital admissions increased after the intervention (rate ratio (RR) 1.178, 95% CI 1.103 to 1.259, p<0.001); this increase was greater for patients over 74 (relative RR 1.143, 95% CI 1.052 to 1.242, p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

The introduction of the named GP scheme was not associated with improvements in either continuity of care or rates of unplanned hospitalisation.

Effect of communicating phenotypic and genetic risk of coronary heart disease alongside web-based lifestyle advice: the INFORM Randomised Controlled Trial

Objective

To determine whether provision of web-based lifestyle advice and coronary heart disease risk information either based on phenotypic characteristics or phenotypic plus genetic characteristics affects changes in objectively measured health behaviours.

Methods

A parallel-group, open randomised trial including 956 male and female blood donors with no history of cardiovascular disease (mean [SD] age=56.7 [8.8] years) randomised to four study groups: control group (no information provided); web-based lifestyle advice only (lifestyle group); lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year coronary heart disease risk based on phenotypic characteristics (phenotypic risk estimate) (phenotypic group) and lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year coronary heart disease risk based on phenotypic (phenotypic risk estimate) and genetic characteristics (genetic risk estimate) (genetic group). The primary outcome was change in physical activity from baseline to 12 weeks assessed by wrist-worn accelerometer.

Results

928 (97.1%) participants completed the trial. There was no evidence of intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline): lifestyle group vs control group 0.09 milligravity (mg) (95% CI −1.15 to 1.33); genetic group vs phenotypic group −0.33 mg (95% CI −1.55 to 0.90); phenotypic group and genetic group vs control group −0.52 mg (95% CI −1.59 to 0.55) and vs lifestyle group −0.61 mg (95% CI −1.67 to 0.46). There was no evidence of intervention effects on secondary biological, emotional and health-related behavioural outcomes except self-reported fruit and vegetable intake.

Conclusions

Provision of risk information, whether based on phenotypic or genotypic characteristics, alongside web-based lifestyle advice did not importantly affect objectively measured levels of physical activity, other health-related behaviours, biological risk factors or emotional well-being.

Trial registration number

ISRCTN17721237; Pre-results.

Computationally efficient methods for fitting mixed models to electronic health records data

Motivated by two case studies using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we describe statistical methods that facilitate the analysis of tall data, with very large numbers of observations. Our focus is on investigating the association between patient characteristics and an outcome of interest, while allowing for variation among general practices. We explore ways to fit mixed-effects models to tall data, including predictors of interest and confounding factors as covariates, and including random intercepts to allow for heterogeneity in outcome among practices. We introduce (1) weighted regression and (2) meta-analysis of estimated regression coefficients from each practice. Both methods reduce the size of the dataset, thus decreasing the time required for statistical analysis. We compare the methods to an existing subsampling approach. All methods give similar point estimates, and weighted regression and meta-analysis give similar standard errors for point estimates to analysis of the entire dataset, but the subsampling method gives larger standard errors. Where all data are discrete, weighted regression is equivalent to fitting the mixed model to the entire dataset. In the presence of a continuous covariate, meta-analysis is useful. Both methods are easy to implement in standard statistical software.

Polycystic ovary syndrome and autism: A test of the prenatal sex steroid theory

Elevated levels of prenatal testosterone may increase the risk for autism spectrum conditions (autism). Given that polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is also associated with elevated prenatal testosterone and its precursor sex steroids, a hypothesis from the prenatal sex steroid theory is that women with PCOS should have elevated autistic traits and a higher rate of autism among their children. Using electronic health records obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in the UK between 1990 and 2014, we conducted three matched case-control studies. Studies 1 and 2 examined the risk of PCOS in women with autism (n = 971) and the risk of autism in women with PCOS (n = 26,263), respectively, compared with matched controls. Study 3 examined the odds ratio (OR) of autism in first-born children of women with PCOS (n = 8588), matched to 41,127 controls. In Studies 1 and 2 we found increased prevalence of PCOS in women with autism (2.3% vs. 1.1%; unadjusted OR: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.22-3.30) and elevated rates of autism in women with PCOS (0.17% vs. 0.09%, unadjusted OR: 1.94 CI: 1.37-2.76). In Study 3 we found the odds of having a child with autism were significantly increased, even after adjustment for maternal psychiatric diagnoses, obstetric complications, and maternal metabolic conditions (unadjusted OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28-2.00; adjusted OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.06-1.73). These studies provide further evidence that women with PCOS and their children have a greater risk of autism.

Do GPs accurately record date of death? A UK observational analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the concordance between dates of death recorded in UK primary care and national mortality records.

METHODS

UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were linked to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, for 118 571 patients who died between September 2010 and September 2015. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with discrepancy in death dates between data sets.

RESULTS

Death dates matched in 76.8% of cases with primary care dates preceding ONS date in 2.9%, and following in 20.3% of cases; 92.2% of cases differed by <2 weeks. Primary care date was >4 weeks later than ONS in 1.5% of cases and occurred more frequently with deaths categorised as 'external' (15.8% vs 0.8% for cancer), and in younger patients (15.9% vs 1% for 18-29 and 80-89 years, respectively). General practices with the greatest discrepancies (97.5th percentile) had around 200 times higher odds of recording substantially discordant dates than practices with the lowest discrepancies (2.5th percentile).

CONCLUSION

Dates of death in primary care records often disagree with national records and should be treated with caution. There is marked variation between practices, and studies involving young patients, unexplained deaths and where precise date of death is important are particularly vulnerable to these issues.

Developing a measure of polypharmacy appropriateness in primary care: systematic review and expert consensus study

BACKGROUND

Polypharmacy is an increasing challenge for primary care. Although sometimes clinically justified, polypharmacy can be inappropriate, leading to undesirable outcomes. Optimising care for polypharmacy necessitates effective targeting and monitoring of interventions. This requires a valid, reliable measure of polypharmacy, relevant for all patients, that considers clinical appropriateness and generic prescribing issues applicable across all medications. Whilst there are several existing measures of potentially inappropriate prescribing, these are not specifically designed with polypharmacy in mind, can require extensive clinical input to complete, and often cover a limited number of drugs. The aim of this study was to identify what experts consider to be the key elements of a measure of prescribing appropriateness in the context of polypharmacy.

METHODS

Firstly, we conducted a systematic review to identify generic (not drug specific) prescribing indicators relevant to polypharmacy appropriateness. Indicators were subject to content analysis to enable categorisation. Secondly, we convened a panel of 10 clinical experts to review the identified indicators and assess their relative clinical importance. For each indicator category, a brief evidence summary was developed, based on relevant clinical and indicator literature, clinical guidance, and opinions obtained from a separate patient discussion panel. A two-stage RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was used to reach consensus amongst the panel on a core set of indicators of polypharmacy appropriateness.

RESULTS

We identified 20,879 papers for title/abstract screening, obtaining 273 full papers. We extracted 189 generic indicators, and presented 160 to the panel grouped into 18 classifications (e.g. adherence, dosage, clinical efficacy). After two stages, during which the panel introduced 18 additional indicators, there was consensus that 134 indicators were of clinical importance. Following the application of decision rules and further panel consultation, 12 indicators were placed into the final selection. Panel members particularly valued indicators concerned with adverse drug reactions, contraindications, drug-drug interactions, and the conduct of medication reviews.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified a set of 12 indicators of clinical importance considered relevant to polypharmacy appropriateness. Use of these indicators in clinical practice and informatics systems is dependent on their operationalisation and their utility (e.g. risk stratification, targeting and monitoring polypharmacy interventions) requires subsequent evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration number: PROSPERO ( CRD42016049176 ).

Factors Associated With Engagement With a Web-Based Lifestyle Intervention Following Provision of Coronary Heart Disease Risk: Mixed Methods Study

Background

Web-based interventions provide the opportunity to combine the tailored approach of face-to-face interventions with the scalability and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions. This potential is often limited by low engagement. A number of studies have described the characteristics of individuals who engage more in Web-based interventions but few have explored the reasons for these variations.

Objective

We aimed to explore individual-level factors associated with different degrees of engagement with a Web-based behavior change intervention following provision of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk information, and the barriers and facilitators to engagement.

Methods

This study involved the secondary analysis of data from the Information and Risk Modification Trial, a randomized controlled trial of a Web-based lifestyle intervention alone, or alongside information on estimated CHD risk. The intervention consisted of three interactive sessions, each lasting up to 60 minutes, delivered at monthly intervals. Participants were characterized as high engagers if they completed all three sessions. Thematic analysis of qualitative data from interviews with 37 participants was combined with quantitative data on usage of the Web-based intervention using a mixed-methods matrix, and data on the views of the intervention itself were analyzed across all participants.

Results

Thirteen participants were characterized as low engagers and 24 as high engagers. There was no difference in age (P=.75), gender (P=.95), or level of risk (P=.65) between the groups. Low engagement was more often associated with: (1) reporting a negative emotional reaction in response to the risk score (P=.029), (2) perceiving that the intervention did not provide any new lifestyle information (P=.011), and (3) being less likely to have reported feeling an obligation to complete the intervention as part of the study (P=.019). The mixed-methods matrix suggested that there was also an association between low engagement and less success with previous behavior change attempts, but the statistical evidence for this association was weak (P=.16). No associations were seen between engagement and barriers or facilitators to health behavior change, or comments about the design of the intervention itself. The most commonly cited barriers related to issues with access to the intervention itself: either difficulties remembering the link to the site or passwords, a perceived lack of flexibility within the website, or lack of time. Facilitators included the nonjudgmental presentation of lifestyle information, the use of simple language, and the personalized nature of the intervention.

Conclusions

This study shows that the level of engagement with a Web-based intervention following provision of CHD risk information is not influenced by the level of risk but by the individual’s response to the risk information, their past experiences of behavior change, the extent to which they consider the lifestyle information helpful, and whether they felt obliged to complete the intervention as part of a research study. A number of facilitators and barriers to Web-based interventions were also identified, which should inform future interventions.

Financial incentives improve recognition but not treatment of cardiovascular risk factors in severe mental illness

Objectives

Severe mental illness (SMI) is associated with premature cardiovascular disease, prompting the UK primary care payment-for-performance system (Quality and Outcomes Framework, QOF) to incentivise annual physical health reviews. This study aimed to assess the QOF’s impact on detection and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors in people with SMI.

Methods

A retrospective open cohort study of UK general practice was conducted between 1996 and 2014, using segmented logistic regression with 2004 and 2011 as break points, reflecting the introduction of relevant QOF incentives in these years. 67239 SMI cases and 359951 randomly-selected unmatched controls were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

Results

There was strong evidence (p≤0.015) the 2004 QOF indicator (general health) resulted in an immediate increase in recording of elevated cholesterol (odds ratio 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.24 to 1.51)); obesity (OR 1.21 (1.06 to 1.38)); and hypertension (OR 1.19 (1.04 to 1.38)) in the SMI group compared with the control group, which was sustained in subsequent years. Similar findings were found for diabetes, although the evidence was weaker (p = 0.059; OR 1.21 (0.99 to 1.49)). There was evidence (p<0.001) of a further, but unsustained, increase in recording of elevated cholesterol and obesity in the SMI group following the 2011 QOF indicator (cardiovascular specific). There was no clear evidence that the QOF indicators affected the prescribing of lipid modifying medications or anti-diabetic medications.

Conclusion

Incentivising general physical health review for SMI improves identification of cardiovascular risk factors, although the additional value of specifically incentivising cardiovascular risk factor assessment is unclear. However, incentives do not affect pharmacological management of these risks.

Association of comorbidity and health service usage among patients with dementia in the UK: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The majority of people with dementia have other long-term diseases, the presence of which may affect the progression and management of dementia. This study aimed to identify subgroups with higher healthcare needs, by analysing how primary care consultations, number of prescriptions and hospital admissions by people with dementia varies with having additional long-term diseases (comorbidity).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study based on health data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was conducted. Incident cases of dementia diagnosed in the year starting 1/3/2008 were selected and followed for up to 5 years. The number of comorbidities was obtained from a set of 34 chronic health conditions. Service usage (primary care consultations, hospitalisations and prescriptions) and time-to-death were determined during follow-up. Multilevel negative binomial regression and Cox regression, adjusted for age and gender, were used to model differences in service usage and death between differing numbers of comorbidities.

RESULTS

Data from 4999 people (14 866 person-years of follow-up) were analysed. Overall, 91.7% of people had 1 or more additional comorbidities. Compared with those with 2 or 3 comorbidities, people with ≥6 comorbidities had higher rates of primary care consultations (rate ratio (RR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.36), prescriptions (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.81), and hospitalisation (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.83), and higher risk of death (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.78).

DISCUSSION

In the UK, people with dementia with higher numbers of comorbidities die earlier and have considerably higher health service usage in terms of primary care consultations, hospital admissions and prescribing. This study provides strong evidence that comorbidity is a key factor that should be considered when allocating resources and planning care for people with dementia.

Deprescribing: a primary care perspective

Polypharmacy is an increasing and global issue affecting primary care. Although sometimes appropriate, polypharmacy can also be problematic, leading to a range of adverse consequences. Deprescribing is the process of supervised withdrawal of an inappropriate medication and has the potential to reduce some of the problems associated with polypharmacy. It is a complex and sensitive process. We examine the issue of deprescribing from the perspective of primary care. Key steps in the deprescribing process are a review of medications and corresponding indications, consideration of harms, assessment of eligibility for discontinuation, prioritisation of medications and implementation of a stopping plan with appropriate monitoring. Patient involvement is a key feature of this process. Deprescribing should be considered in the context of end-of-life care and medication safety, but approaches are also required to identify other situations where deprescribing is appropriate. General practitioners are well positioned to facilitate deprescribing, usually through formal medication review, with decisions informed by a range of other healthcare professionals. Guidelines are available that help guide these processes. A range of studies have explored attitudes towards deprescribing; patients are generally supportive of the concept, although clinician views are varied. The successful implementation of deprescribing strategies still requires important patient and clinician barriers to be overcome, and clinical trial evidence of effectiveness and safety is essential.

Adjusted indices of multiple deprivation to enable comparisons within and between constituent countries of the UK including an illustration using mortality rates

OBJECTIVES

Social determinants can have a major impact on health and as a consequence substantial inequalities are seen between and within countries. The study of inequalities between countries relies on having accurate and consistent measures of deprivation across the country borders. However, in the UK most socioeconomic deprivation measures are not comparable between countries. We give a method of adjusting the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for use across the UK, describe the deprivation of each UK country, and show the problems introduced by naïvely using country-specific deprivation measures in a UK-wide analysis of mortality rates.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

42 148 geographic areas covering the population of the UK.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Adjusted IMD scores based on the income and employment domains of country-specific IMD scores, adjusting for the contribution of other domains. The mortality rate among people aged under 75 years standardised to the UK age structure was compared between country-specific and UK-adjusted IMD quintiles.

RESULTS

Of the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland was the most deprived with 37% of the population living in areas in the most deprived fifth of the UK, followed by Wales with 22% of the population living in the most deprived fifth of the UK. England and Scotland had similar levels of deprivation. Deprivation-specific mortality rates were similar in England and Wales. Northern Ireland had lower mortality rates than England for each deprivation group, with similar differences for each group. Scotland had higher mortality rates than England for each deprivation group, with larger differences for more deprived groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of between-country and within-country inequalities by socioeconomic position should use consistent measures; failing to use consistent measures may give misleading results. The published adjusted IMD scores we describe allow consistent analysis across the UK.

The epidemiology of polypharmacy

Polypharmacy describes, in simplistic terms, the use of multiple medications in an individual. It has become a normal aspect of modern medicine, driven by an ageing, multimorbid population, the increasing availability of preventative medications and an increasing use of single-disease guidelines and adherence to evidence-based practice. However, polypharmacy is also associated with a range of adverse outcomes, and is considered an important and increasing challenge for clinical practice. Here, we consider the definitions of polypharmacy, the extent and nature of medication use in different settings, and the type of problems encountered as a consequence of polypharmacy.

Improving medication management in multimorbidity: development of the MultimorbiditY COllaborative Medication Review And DEcision Making (MY COMRADE) intervention using the Behaviour Change Wheel

Background

Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more chronic conditions, affects over 60 % of patients in primary care. Due to its association with polypharmacy, the development of interventions to optimise medication management in patients with multimorbidity is a priority. The Behaviour Change Wheel is a new approach for applying behavioural theory to intervention development. Here, we describe how we have used results from a review of previous research, original research of our own and the Behaviour Change Wheel to develop an intervention to improve medication management in multimorbidity by general practitioners (GPs), within the overarching UK Medical Research Council guidance on complex interventions.

Methods

Following the steps of the Behaviour Change Wheel, we sought behaviours associated with medication management in multimorbidity by conducting a systematic review and qualitative study with GPs. From the modifiable GP behaviours identified, we selected one and conducted a focused behavioural analysis to explain why GPs were or were not engaging in this behaviour. We used the behavioural analysis to determine the intervention functions, behavioural change techniques and implementation plan most likely to effect behavioural change.

Results

We identified numerous modifiable GP behaviours in the systematic review and qualitative study, from which active medication review (rather than passive maintaining the status quo) was chosen as the target behaviour. Behavioural analysis revealed GPs’ capabilities, opportunities and motivations relating to active medication review. We combined the three intervention functions deemed most likely to effect behavioural change (enablement, environmental restructuring and incentivisation) to form the MultimorbiditY COllaborative Medication Review And DEcision Making (MY COMRADE) intervention. MY COMRADE primarily involves the technique of social support: two GPs review the medications prescribed to a complex multimorbid patient together. Four other behavioural change techniques are incorporated: restructuring the social environment, prompts/cues, action planning and self-incentives.

Conclusions

This study is the first to use the Behaviour Change Wheel to develop an intervention targeting multimorbidity and confirms the usability and usefulness of the approach in a complex area of clinical care. The systematic development of the MY COMRADE intervention will facilitate a thorough evaluation of its effectiveness in the next phase of this work.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13012-015-0322-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours.

METHODS/DESIGN

In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups.

DISCUSSION

The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

Why do patients with multimorbidity in England report worse experiences in primary care? Evidence from the General Practice Patient Survey

OBJECTIVES

To describe and explain the primary care experiences of people with multiple long-term conditions in England.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using questionnaire data from 906,578 responders to the English 2012 General Practice Patient Survey, we describe the primary care experiences of patients with long-term conditions, including 583,143 patients who reported one or more long-term conditions. We employed mixed effect logistic regressions to analyse data on six items covering three care domains (access, continuity and communication) and a single item on overall primary care experience. We controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, and for general practice using a random effect, and further, controlled for, and explored the importance of, health-related quality of life measured using the EuroQoL (EQ-5D) scale.

RESULTS

Most patients with long-term conditions report a positive experience of care at their general practice (after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and general practice, range 74.0-93.1% reporting positive experience of care across seven questions) with only modest variation by type of condition. For all three domains of patient experience, an increasing number of comorbid conditions is associated with a reducing percentage of patients reporting a positive experience of care. For example, compared with respondents with no long-term condition, the OR for reporting a positive experience is 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.87) for respondents with four or more long-term conditions. However, this relationship is no longer observed after adjusting for health-related quality of life (OR (95% CI) single condition=1.23 (1.21 to 1.26); four or more conditions=1.31 (1.25 to 1.37)), with pain making the greatest difference among five quality of life variables included in the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with multiple long-term conditions more frequently report worse experiences in primary care. However, patient-centred measures of health-related quality of life, especially pain, are more important than the number of conditions in explaining why patients with multiple long-term conditions report worse experiences of care.

Is polypharmacy always hazardous? A retrospective cohort analysis using linked electronic health records from primary and secondary care

AIMS

Prescribing multiple medications is associated with various adverse outcomes, and polypharmacy is commonly considered suggestive of poor prescribing. Polypharmacy might thus be associated with unplanned hospitalization. We sought to test this assumption.

METHODS

Scottish primary care data for 180 815 adults with long-term clinical conditions and numbers of regular medications were linked to national hospital admissions data for the following year. Using logistic regression (age, gender and deprivation adjusted), we modelled the association of prescribing with unplanned admission for patients with different numbers of long-term conditions.

RESULTS

Admissions were more common in patients on multiple medications, but admission risk varied with the number of conditions. For patients with one condition, the odds ratio for unplanned admission for four to six medications was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.11-1.42) vs. one to three medications, and 3.42 (95% confidence interval 2.72-4.28) for ≥10 medications vs. one to three medications. However, this effect was greatly reduced for patients with multiple conditions; amongst patients with six or more conditions, those on four to six medications were no more likely to have unplanned admissions than those taking one to three medications (odds ratio 1.00; 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.14), and those taking ≥10 medications had a modestly increased risk of admission (odds ratio 1.50; 95% confidence interval 1.31-1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Unplanned hospitalization is strongly associated with the number of regular medications. However, the effect is reduced in patients with multiple conditions, in whom only the most extreme levels of polypharmacy are associated with increased admissions. Assumptions that polypharmacy is always hazardous and represents poor care should be tempered by clinical assessment of the conditions for which those drugs are being prescribed.

How do people with diabetes describe their experiences in primary care? Evidence from 85,760 patients with self-reported diabetes from the English General Practice Patient Survey

OBJECTIVE

Developing primary care is an important current health policy goal in the U.S. and England. Information on patients' experience can help to improve the care of people with diabetes. We describe the experiences of people with diabetes in primary care and examine how these experiences vary with increasing comorbidity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using data from 906,578 responders to the 2012 General Practice Patient Survey (England), including 85,760 with self-reported diabetes, we used logistic regressions controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status to analyze patient experience using seven items covering three domains of primary care: access, continuity, and communication.

RESULTS

People with diabetes were significantly more likely to report better experience on six out of seven primary care items than people without diabetes after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (adjusted differences 0.88-3.20%; odds ratios [ORs] 1.07-1.18; P < 0.001). Those with diabetes and additional comorbid long-term conditions were more likely to report worse experiences, particularly for access to primary care appointments (patients with diabetes alone compared with patients without diabetes: OR 1.22 [95% CI 1.17-1.28] and patients with diabetes plus three or more conditions compared with patients without diabetes: OR 0.87 [95% CI 0.83-0.91]).

CONCLUSIONS

People with diabetes in England report primary care experiences that are at least as good as those without diabetes for most domains of care. However, improvements in primary care are needed for diabetes patients with comorbid long-term conditions, including better access to appointments and improved communication.

Cardiovascular polypharmacy is not associated with unplanned hospitalisation: evidence from a retrospective cohort study

Background

Polypharmacy is often considered suggestive of suboptimal prescribing, and is associated with adverse outcomes. It is particularly common in the context of cardiovascular disease, but it is unclear whether prescribing of multiple cardiovascular medicines, which may be entirely appropriate and consistent with clinical guidance, is associated with adverse outcome. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between number of prescribed cardiovascular medicines and unplanned non-cardiovascular hospital admissions.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis of 180,815 adult patients was conducted using Scottish primary care data linked to hospital discharge data. Patients were followed up for one year for the outcome of unplanned non-cardiovascular hospital admission. The association between number of prescribed cardiovascular medicines and hospitalisation was modelled using logistic regression, adjusting for key confounding factors including cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular morbidity and non-cardiovascular prescribing.

Results

25.4% patients were prescribed ≥1 cardiovascular medicine, and 5.7% were prescribed ≥5. At least one unplanned non-cardiovascular admission was experienced by 4.2% of patients. Admissions were more common in patients receiving multiple cardiovascular medicines (6.4% of patients prescribed 5 or 6 cardiovascular medicines) compared with those prescribed none (3.5%). However, after adjusting for key confounders, cardiovascular prescribing was associated with fewer non-cardiovascular admissions (OR 0.66 for 5 or 6 vs. no cardiovascular medicines, 95% CI 0.57-0.75).

Conclusions

We found no evidence that increasing numbers of cardiovascular medicines were associated with an increased risk of unplanned non-cardiovascular hospitalisation, following adjustment for confounding. Assumptions that polypharmacy is hazardous and represents poor care should be moderated in the context of cardiovascular disease.

Prevalence of polypharmacy in a Scottish primary care population

PURPOSE

Polypharmacy-the use of multiple medications by a single patient-is an important issue associated with various adverse clinical outcomes and rising costs. It is also a topic rarely addressed by clinical guidelines. We used routine Scottish health records to address the lack of data on the prevalence of polypharmacy in the broader, adult primary care population, particularly in relation to long-term conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of adult electronic primary healthcare records and used linear regression models to examine the association between the number of medicines prescribed regularly and both multimorbidity and specific clinical conditions, adjusting for age, gender and socioeconomic deprivation.

RESULTS

Overall, 16.9 % of the adults assessed were receiving four to nine medications, and 4.6 % were receiving ten or more medications, increasing with age (28.6 and 7.4 %, respectively, in those aged 60-69 years; 51.8 and 18.6 %, respectively, in those aged ≥ 80 years), but relatively unaffected by gender or deprivation. Of those patients with two clinical conditions, 20.8 % were receiving four to nine medications, and 1.1 % were receiving ten or more medications; in those patients with six or more comorbidities, these values were 47.7 and 41.7 %, respectively. The number of medications varied considerably between clinical conditions, with cardiovascular conditions associated with the greatest number of additional medications. The accumulation of additional medicines was less with concordant conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Polypharmacy is common in UK primary care. The main factor associated with this is multimorbidity, although considerable variation exists between different conditions. The impact of clinical conditions on the number of medicines is generally less in the presence of co-existing concordant conditions.

Association between prescribing of cardiovascular and psychotropic medications and hospital admission for falls or fractures

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly. This study examined the frequency of hospital admission for falls or fractures, and the association with a recent change in the use of cardiovascular and psychotropic medications.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-cohort study of 39,813 patients aged >65 years from 40 Scottish general practices. Data on current prescriptions, dates of drug changes (defined as increases in dose or starting new drugs), diagnoses and clinical measurements were extracted from primary care electronic records, linked to national hospital admissions data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the association of change in prescribing of cardiovascular or psychotropic medication with admission to hospital for falls or fractures in the following 60 days.

RESULTS

A total of 838 patients (2.1 %) were admitted in the 1-year study period. Following adjustment for factors including age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, co-morbidity and current prescribing, changes in both cardiovascular and psychotropic medications were associated with subsequent admission for falls or fractures (odds ratio [OR] 1.54 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.17-2.03] and 1.68 [95 % CI 1.28-2.22], respectively). There was no evidence for a difference in the effect of change in medication for different cardiovascular drug types (p = 0.86), but there was evidence (p = 0.003) for variation in the association between change in different psychotropic medications and admission; the strongest associations were observed for changes in selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants (OR 1.99 [95 % CI 1.29-3.08]), non-SSRI/tricyclic antidepressants (OR 4.39 [95 % CI 2.21-8.71]) and combination psychotropic medication (OR 3.05 [95 % CI 1.66-5.63]).

CONCLUSIONS

Recent changes in psychotropic and cardiovascular medications are associated with a substantial increase in risk of hospital admission for falls and fractures. Caution should thus be taken when instigating prescribing changes in relation to these medicines, particularly in individuals already considered to be at high risk, such as those with multiple co-morbidities and the oldest old.