A combined cross-sectional analysis and case-control study evaluating tick-borne encephalitis vaccination coverage, disease and vaccine effectiveness in children and adolescents, Switzerland, 2005 to 2022

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a severe, vaccine-preventable viral infection of the central nervous system. Symptoms are generally milder in children and adolescents than in adults, though severe disease does occur. A better understanding of the disease burden and duration of vaccine-mediated protection is important for vaccination recommendations.AimTo estimate TBE vaccination coverage, disease severity and vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals aged 0-17 years in Switzerland.MethodsVaccination coverage between 2005 and 2022 was estimated using the Swiss National Vaccination Coverage Survey (SNVCS), a nationwide, repeated cross-sectional study assessing vaccine uptake. Incidence and severity of TBE between 2005 and 2022 were determined using data from the Swiss disease surveillance system and VE was calculated using a case-control analysis, matching TBE cases with SNVCS controls.ResultsOver the study period, vaccination coverage increased substantially, from 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1-5.5%) to 50.1% (95% CI: 48.3-52.0%). Reported clinical symptoms in TBE cases were similar irrespective of age. Neurological involvement was less likely in incompletely (1-2 doses) and completely (≥ 3 doses) vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated ones. For incomplete vaccination, VE was 66.2% (95% CI: 42.3-80.2), whereas VE for complete vaccination was 90.8% (95% CI: 87.7-96.4). Vaccine effectiveness remained high, 83.9% (95% CI: 69.0-91.7) up to 10 years since last vaccination.ConclusionsEven children younger than 5 years can experience severe TBE. Incomplete and complete vaccination protect against neurological manifestations of the disease. Complete vaccination offers durable protection up to 10 years against TBE.

Determinants of health-related quality of life in healthy children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from a prospective longitudinal cohort study

Understanding health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in children and adolescents, during a pandemic and afterwards, aids in understanding how circumstances in their lives impact their well-being. We aimed to identify determinants of HRQOL from a broad range of biological, psychological, and social factors in a large longitudinal population-based sample. Data was taken from a longitudinal sample (n = 1843) of children and adolescents enrolled in the prospective school-based cohort study Ciao Corona in Switzerland. The primary outcome was HRQOL, assessed using the KINDL total score and its subscales (each from 0, worst, to 100, best). Potential determinants, including biological (physical activity, screen time, sleep, etc.), psychological (sadness, anxiousness, stress), and social (nationality, parents' education, etc.) factors, were assessed in 2020 and 2021 and HRQOL in 2022. Determinants were identified in a data-driven manner using recursive partitioning to define homogeneous subgroups, stratified by school level. Median KINDL total score in the empirically identified subgroups ranged from 68 to 83 in primary school children and from 69 to 82 in adolescents in secondary school. The psychological factors sadness, anxiousness, and stress in 2021 were identified as the most important determinants of HRQOL in both primary and secondary school children. Other factors, such as physical activity, screen time, chronic health conditions, or nationality, were determinants only in individual subscales.

CONCLUSION

Recent mental health, more than biological, physical, or social factors, played a key role in determining HRQOL in children and adolescents during pandemic times. Public health strategies to improve mental health may therefore be effective in improving HRQOL in this age group.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Assessing health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in children and adolescents aids in understanding how life circumstances impact their well-being. • HRQOL is a complex construct, involving biological, psychological, and social factors. Factors driving HRQOL in children and adolescents are not often studied in longitudinal population-based samples.

WHAT IS NEW

• Mental health (stress, anxiousness, sadness) played a key role in determining HRQOL during the coronavirus pandemic, more than biological or social factors. • Public health strategies to improve mental health may be effective in improving HRQOL in children.

Experts vs. machine - comparison of machine learning to expert-informed prediction of outcome after major liver surgery

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) has been successfully implemented for classification tasks (e.g., cancer diagnosis). ML performance for more challenging predictions is largely unexplored. This study's objective was to compare machine learning vs. expert-informed predictions for surgical outcome in patients undergoing major liver surgery.

METHODS

Single tertiary center data on preoperative parameters and postoperative complications for elective hepatic surgery patients were included (2008-2021). Expert-informed prediction models were established on 14 parameters identified by two expert liver surgeons to impact on postoperative outcome. ML models used all available preoperative patient variables (n = 62). Model performance was compared for predicting 3-month postoperative overall morbidity. Temporal validation and additional analysis in major liver resection patients were conducted.

RESULTS

889 patients included. Expert-informed models showed low average bias (2-5 CCI points) with high over/underprediction. ML models performed similarly: average prediction 5-10 points higher than observed CCI values with high variability (95% CI -30 to 50). No performance improvement for major liver surgery patients.

CONCLUSION

No clinical relevance in the application of ML for predicting postoperative overall morbidity was found. Despite being a novel hype, ML has the potential for application in clinical practice. However, at this stage it does not replace established approaches of prediction modelling.

Exploring the Major Barriers to Physical Activity in Persons With Multiple Sclerosis: Observational Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) represents a low-cost and readily available means of mitigating multiple sclerosis (MS) symptoms and alleviating the disease course. Nevertheless, persons with MS engage in lower levels of PA than the general population.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to enhance the understanding of the barriers to PA engagement in persons with MS and to evaluate the applicability of the Barriers to Health Promoting Activities for Disabled Persons (BHADP) scale for assessing barriers to PA in persons with MS, by comparing the BHADP score with self-reported outcomes of fatigue, depression, self-efficacy, and health-related quality of life, as well as sensor-measured PA.

METHODS

Study participants (n=45; median age 46, IQR 40-51 years; median Expanded Disability Status Scale score 4.5, IQR 3.5-6) were recruited among persons with MS attending inpatient neurorehabilitation. They wore a Fitbit Inspire HR (Fitbit Inc) throughout their stay at the rehabilitation clinic (phase 1; 2-4 wk) and for the 4 following weeks at home (phase 2; 4 wk). Sensor-based step counts and cumulative minutes in moderate to vigorous PA were computed for the last 7 days at the clinic and at home. On the basis of PA during the last 7 end-of-study days, we grouped the study participants as active (≥10,000 steps/d) and less active (<10,000 steps/d) to explore PA barriers compared with PA level. PA barriers were repeatedly assessed through the BHADP scale. We described the relevance of the 18 barriers of the BHADP scale assessed at the end of the study and quantified their correlations with the Spearman correlation test. We evaluated the associations of the BHADP score with end-of-study reported outcomes of fatigue, depression, self-efficacy, and health-related quality of life with multivariable regression models. We performed separate regression analyses to examine the association of the BHADP score with different sensor-measured outcomes of PA.

RESULTS

The less active group reported higher scores for the BHADP items Feeling what I do doesn't help, No one to help me, and Lack of support from family/friends. The BHADP items Not interested in PA and Impairment were positively correlated. The BHADP score was positively associated with measures of fatigue and depression and negatively associated with self-efficacy and health-related quality of life. The BHADP score showed an inverse relationship with the level of PA measured but not when dichotomized according to the recommended PA level thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

The BHADP scale is a valid and well-adapted tool for persons with MS because it reflects common MS symptoms such as fatigue and depression, as well as self-efficacy and health-related quality of life. Moreover, decreases in PA levels are often related to increases in specific barriers in the lives of persons with MS and should hence be addressed jointly in health care management.

Better tools for better estimates: improving approaches to handling missing data in Swiss cancer registries

OBJECTIVE

Various approaches have been used in the literature to handle missing vital status data in cancer registries. We aimed to compare these approaches to determine which led to the least biased estimates in typical analytic tasks of cancer registries.

METHODS

A simulation study was performed using data from the Swiss National Agency for Cancer Registration for six tumor types. First, 5%, 10% and 15% missingness in the vital status were introduced artificially in the complete data. Second, missing vital status data were handled by applying no, single or multiple imputations. Five-year overall survival estimates, relative survival or standardized incidence ratio were computed. Estimates were compared with the true value.

RESULTS

Standardized incidence ratio estimates for colorectal cancer obtained with multiple imputation yielded least biased results (-0.06 to -0.04), but the widest confidence intervals. Single imputation was more biased (-0.32) than using no imputation at all (-0.21). A similar pattern was observed for overall survival and relative survival.

CONCLUSION

This simulation study indicated that often used single imputation (sometimes referred to as simulating follow-up times) techniques to fill in missing vital status data are likely too biased to be useful in practice. Multiple imputation approaches yielded standardized incidence ratio, overall and relative survival estimates with the least bias, indicating reasonable performance that is likely to generalize to other settings.

Prescriptions of antidepressants and anxiolytics in France 2012-2022 and changes with the COVID-19 pandemic: interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety have increased in prevalence since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the consumption of antidepressants and anxiolytics from 2012 to 2022 and the pandemic's potential impact in France.

METHODS

We conducted an interrupted time series analysis of routine drug sales data (Medic'AM) from all French outpatient pharmacies from 2012 to 2022. We investigated trends in defined daily doses of antidepressants and anxiolytics sold per 1000 inhabitants (DDD/TID) and related expenditures before and after pandemic onset and in relation with stringency of pandemic mitigation measures. Analyses were performed descriptively and using segmented linear regression, autoregressive and autoregressive integrated moving average models.

FINDINGS

From 2012 to 2019, overall monthly antidepressant sales increased (+0.02 DDD/TID) while monthly anxiolytic sales decreased (-0.07 DDD/TID). With pandemic onset, there was a relevant and persisting trend increase (+0.20 DDD/TID per month) for antidepressant sales overall, with an estimated excess of 112.6 DDD/TID sold from May 2020 until December 2022. Anxiolytic sales were elevated from February 2020 throughout the pandemic but returned to expected levels by December 2022, with an estimated excess of 33.8 DDD/TID. There was no evident association between stringency and antidepressant or anxiolytic sales.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a protracted trend increase in the consumption of antidepressants since pandemic onset, while increases in anxiolytic consumption were temporary.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

We provide evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic may have had long-lasting consequences on the prevalence and treatment of depression and anxiety disorders, requiring further actions by researchers and policy-makers to address this potential public mental health crisis.

Cross-protective HCoV immunity reduces symptom development during SARS-CoV-2 infection

Numerous clinical parameters link to severe coronavirus disease 2019, but factors that prevent symptomatic disease remain unknown. We investigated the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and endemic human coronavirus (HCoV) antibody responses on symptoms in a longitudinal children cohort (n = 2,917) and a cross-sectional cohort including children and adults (n = 882), all first exposed to SARS-CoV-2 (March 2020 to March 2021) in Switzerland. Saliva (n = 4,993) and plasma (n = 7,486) antibody reactivity to the four HCoVs (subunit S1 [S1]) and SARS-CoV-2 (S1, receptor binding domain, subunit S2 [S2], nucleocapsid protein) was determined along with neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron (BA.2) in a subset of individuals. Inferred recent SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a strong correlation between mucosal and systemic SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike responses. Individuals with pre-existing HCoV-S1 reactivity exhibited significantly higher antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in both plasma (IgG regression coefficients = 0.20, 95% CI = [0.09, 0.32], P < 0.001) and saliva (IgG regression coefficient = 0.60, 95% CI = [0.088, 1.11], P = 0.025). Saliva neutralization activity was modest but surprisingly broad, retaining activity against Wuhan (median NT50 = 32.0, 1Q-3Q = [16.4, 50.2]), Alpha (median NT50 = 34.9, 1Q-3Q = [26.0, 46.6]), and Delta (median NT50 = 28.0, 1Q-3Q = [19.9, 41.7]). In line with a rapid mucosal defense triggered by cross-reactive HCoV immunity, asymptomatic individuals presented with higher pre-existing HCoV-S1 activity in plasma (IgG HKU1, odds ratio [OR] = 0.53, 95% CI = [0.29,0.97], P = 0.038) and saliva (total HCoV, OR = 0.55, 95% CI = [0.33, 0.91], P = 0.019) and higher SARS-CoV-2 reactivity in saliva (IgG S2 fold change = 1.26, 95% CI = [1.03, 1.54], P = 0.030). By investigating the systemic and mucosal immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs in a population without prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or vaccination, we identified specific antibody reactivities associated with lack of symptom development.IMPORTANCEKnowledge of the interplay between human coronavirus (HCoV) immunity and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is critical to understanding the coexistence of current endemic coronaviruses and to building knowledge potential future zoonotic coronavirus transmissions. This study, which retrospectively analyzed a large cohort of individuals first exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland in 2020-2021, revealed several key findings. Pre-existing HCoV immunity, particularly mucosal antibody responses, played a significant role in improving SARS-CoV-2 immune response upon infection and reducing symptoms development. Mucosal neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2, although low in magnitude, retained activity against SARS-CoV-2 variants underlining the importance of maintaining local mucosal immunity to SARS-CoV-2. While the cross-protective effect of HCoV immunity was not sufficient to block infection by SARS-CoV-2, the present study revealed a remarkable impact on limiting symptomatic disease. These findings support the feasibility of generating pan-protective coronavirus vaccines by inducing potent mucosal immune responses.

Persistent humoral immune response in youth throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: prospective school-based cohort study

Understanding the development of humoral immune responses of children and adolescents to SARS-CoV-2 is essential for designing effective public health measures. Here we examine the changes of humoral immune response in school-aged children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020 to July 2022), with a specific interest in the Omicron variant (beginning of 2022). In our study "Ciao Corona", we assess in each of the five testing rounds between 1874 and 2500 children and adolescents from 55 schools in the canton of Zurich with a particular focus on a longitudinal cohort (n=751). By July 2022, 96.9% (95% credible interval 95.3-98.1%) of children and adolescents have SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG (S-IgG) antibodies. Those with hybrid immunity or vaccination have higher S-IgG titres and stronger neutralising responses against Wildtype, Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants compared to those infected but unvaccinated. S-IgG persist over 18 months in 93% of children and adolescents. During the study period one adolescent was hospitalised for less than 24 hours possibly related to an acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. These findings show that the Omicron wave and the rollout of vaccines boosted S-IgG titres and neutralising capacity. Trial registration number: NCT04448717. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04448717 .

Surgical outcome improvement by shared decision-making: value of a preoperative multidisciplinary target clinic for the elderly in colorectal surgery

PURPOSE

Frailty and comorbidities increase the risk of postoperative complications and raise treatment costs. Perioperative optimisation is shown to improve surgical outcomes for the elderly. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of introducing a multidisciplinary preoperative clinic for older patients (Colchester Older Persons' Evaluation for Surgery (COPES) clinic) undergoing major colorectal surgery.

METHODS

This 5-year single centre study included patients >65 years with ≥3 comorbidities undergoing major colorectal surgery. From October 2018, patients with these characteristics were evaluated and optimised in the COPES clinic by a geriatrician and an anaesthetist. Outcomes were compared to high-risk patients operated on prior to COPES (pre-COPES group). The primary outcomes were postoperative morbidity at discharge and 6 months measured by the Comprehensive Complication Index. Patients were matched on age and number of comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 54 patients were enrolled in the pre-COPES and 18 in the COPES group. After matching, the results were comparable for both groups. The length of stay was shorter in the COPES group and the recurrence rate was higher; however, it did not reach statistical significance in both findings.

CONCLUSION

This clinic intends to improve treatment quality, placing emphasis on shared decision-making. More focus should be put on patient-reported outcomes and experiences. Especially for elderly patients, quality of life and maintaining independence are often their priority. To determine the true value of a preoperative multidisciplinary clinic targeting elderly comorbid patients, a prospective study with larger cohort is needed, focusing not only on objective outcomes but also on patient-reported outcomes.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Adherence to Physical Activity and Screen Time Recommendations in Schoolchildren: Longitudinal Cohort Ciao Corona

Objectives: We investigated changes in adherence to physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) recommendations of children and adolescents throughout the pandemic, and their association with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Methods: 1,769 primary (PS, grades 1-6) and secondary (SS, 7-9) school children from Ciao Corona, a school-based cohort study in Zurich, Switzerland, with five questionnaires 2020-2022. HRQOL was assessed using the KINDL questionnaire. PA (≥60 min/day moderate-to-vigorous PA) and ST (≤2 h/day ST) recommendations followed WHO guidelines. Results: Adherence to PA recommendations dropped in 2020 (83%-59% PS, 77%-52% SS), but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 (79%, 66%). Fewer children met ST recommendations in 2020 (74% PS, 29% SS) and 2021 (82%, 37%) than pre-pandemic (95%, 68%). HRQOL decreased 3 points between 2020 and 2022, and was 9.7 points higher (95% CI 3.0-16.3) in March 2021 in children who met both versus no recommendations. Conclusion: Adherence to WHO guidelines on PA and ST during the pandemic had a consistent association with HRQOL despite longitudinal changes in behavior.

Post COVID-19 condition, work ability and occupational changes in a population-based cohort

Background

Evidence on the impact of post COVID-19 condition (PCC) on work ability is limited but critical due to its high prevalence among working-age individuals. This study aimed to evaluate the association between PCC, work ability, and occupational changes in a population-based cohort.

Methods

We used data from working-age adults included in a prospective, longitudinal cohort of a random sample of all individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 between August 2020 and January 2021 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We evaluated current work ability, work ability related to physical and mental demands, and estimated future work ability in 2 years (assessed using Work Ability Index), and PCC-related occupational changes one year after infection.

Findings

Of 672 individuals included in this study, 120 (17.9%) were categorised as having PCC (defined as presence of self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms) at 12 months. There was very strong evidence that current work ability scores were mean 0.62 (95% CI 0.30-0.95) points lower among those with PCC compared to those without in adjusted regression analyses. Similarly, there was very strong evidence for lower odds of reporting higher work ability with respect to physical (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.20-0.46) and mental (aOR 0.40, 0.27-0.62) demands in individuals with PCC. Higher age and history of psychiatric diagnosis were associated with more substantial reductions in current work ability. 5.8% of those with PCC reported direct effects of PCC on their occupational situation, with 1.6% of those with PCC completely dropping out of the workforce.

Interpretation

These findings highlight the need for providing support and interdisciplinary interventions to individuals affected by PCC to help them maintain or regain their work ability and productivity.

Funding

Federal Office of Public Health, Department of Health of the Canton of Zurich, University of Zurich Foundation, Switzerland; Horizon Europe.

Respiratory morbidity in preschool and school-age children born very preterm and its association with parents' health-related quality of life and family functioning

The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence and severity of respiratory symptoms in children born very preterm and to assess their association with parents' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and family functioning. We conducted a cross-sectional study and recruited children born less than 32 weeks' gestation between January 2006 and December 2019, in the greater Zurich area, Switzerland. Between May and December 2021, parents were invited to complete an online survey for their preterm child and for a control term born (≥ 37 weeks' gestation) sibling aged 1 to 18 years. We used a validated questionnaire to assess respiratory symptoms and the Pediatrics Quality of Life Family Impact Module (PedsQL FIM) to assess parents' HRQoL and family functioning. The survey was completed for 616 very preterm children (99 with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD)) and 180 controls. Girls made up 45% (46% in controls) of the sample, and 63% (60% in controls) of participants were aged 6 to 18 years (school-age). Very preterm children reported a higher risk of respiratory symptoms than controls, especially preschoolers and those with moderate-to-severe BPD. Parents of children with "mild" and "moderate-severe" respiratory symptoms had on average -3.9 (95%CI: -6.6 to -1.1) and -8.2 (-11.2 to -5.2) lower PedsQL FIM total score, respectively, than parents of children with no symptoms. The same pattern was observed after stratifying by age categories.  Conclusions: Our study suggests that respiratory morbidity in very preterm children has a negative impact on parents' HRQoL and family functioning, even beyond the first years of life. What is Known: • The burden of respiratory morbidity associated with very premature birth is high and last far beyond the neonatal period. • Respiratory morbidity contributes to lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in parents of very preterm children in early infancy. What is New: • Respiratory morbidity in very preterm children has a negative impact on parents' HRQoL and family functioning beyond the first years of life. • Parents of very preterm children with moderate and severe respiratory symptoms are the ones who report lower scores, both for preschool and school-age children.

There is no evidence that carbon dioxide-enriched oxygen before apnea affects the time to arterial desaturation, but it might improve cerebral oxygenation in anesthetized obese patients: a single-blinded randomized crossover trial

PURPOSE

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) increases cerebral perfusion. The effect of CO₂ on apnea tolerance, such as after anesthesia induction, is unknown. This study aimed to assess if cerebral apnea tolerance can be improved in obese patients under general anesthesia when comparing O₂/Air (95%O₂) to O₂/CO₂ (95%O₂/5%CO₂).

METHODS

In this single-center, single-blinded, randomized crossover trial, 30 patients 18-65 years, with body mass index > 35 kg/m², requiring general anesthesia for bariatric surgery, underwent two apneas that were preceded by ventilation with either O₂/Air or O₂/CO₂ in random order. After anesthesia induction, intubation, and ventilation with O₂/Air or O₂/CO₂ for 10 min, apnea was performed until the cerebral tissue oxygenation index (TOI) dropped by a relative 20% from baseline (primary endpoint) or oxygen saturation (SpO₂) reached 80% (safety abortion criterion). The intervention was then repeated with the second substance.

RESULTS

The safety criterion was reached in all patients before cerebral TOI decreased by 20%. The time until SpO₂ dropped to 80% was similar in the two groups (+ 6 s with O₂/CO₂, 95%CI -7 to 19 s, p = 0.37). Cerebral TOI and PaO₂ were higher after O₂/CO₂ (+ 1.5%; 95%CI: from 0.3 to 2.6; p = 0.02 and + 0.6 kPa; 95%CI: 0.1 to 1.1; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

O₂/CO₂ improves cerebral TOI and PaO₂ in anesthetized bariatric patients. Better apnea tolerance could not be confirmed.

Heterogeneous evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in school-age children: Results from the school-based cohort study Ciao Corona in November-December 2021 in the canton of Zurich

BACKGROUND

Much remains unknown regarding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variability in seropositive children in districts, schools and classes as only a few school-based cohort studies exist. Vaccination of children, initiated at different times for different age groups, adds additional complexity to the understanding of how seroprevalence developed in the school aged population.

AIM

We investigated the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and its variability in districts, schools and classes in Switzerland from June/July 2020 to November/December 2021.

METHODS

In this school-based cohort study, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured in primary and secondary school children from randomly selected schools in the canton of Zurich in October/November 2020, March/April 2021 and November/December 2021. Seroprevalence was estimated using Bayesian logistic regression to adjust for test sensitivity and specificity. Variability of seroprevalence between school classes was expressed as maximum minus minimum seroprevalence in a class and summarised as median (interquartile range).

RESULTS

1875 children from 287 classes in 43 schools were tested, with median age 12 years (range 6-17), 51% 12+ vaccinated. Seroprevalence increased from 5.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.5-7.6%) to 31.1% (95% CrI 27.0-36.1%) in unvaccinated children, and 46.4% (95% CrI 42.6-50.9%) in all children (including vaccinated). Earlier in the pandemic, seropositivity rates in primary schools were similar to or slightly higher (<5%) than those in secondary schools, but by late 2021, primary schools had 12.3% (44.3%) lower seroprevalence for unvaccinated (all) subjects. Variability in seroprevalence among districts and schools increased more than two-fold over time, and in classes from 11% (95% CrI 7-17%) to 40% (95% CrI 22-49%).

CONCLUSIONS

Seroprevalence in children increased greatly, especially in 2021 following introduction of vaccines. Variability in seroprevalence was high and increased substantially over time, suggesting complex transmission chains.

Cystic fibrosis related diabetes is not associated with maximal aerobic exercise capacity in cystic fibrosis: a cross-sectional analysis of an international multicenter trial

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported differences in aerobic exercise capacity, expressed as peak oxygen uptake (VO_2peak), between people with and without cystic fibrosis (CF) related diabetes (CFRD). However, none of the studies controlled for the potential influence of physical activity on VO_2peak. We investigated associations between CFRD and VO_2peak following rigorous control for confounders including objectively measured physical activity.

METHODS

Baseline data from the international multicenter trial ACTIVATE-CF with participants ≥12 years performing up to 4 h per week of vigorous physical activity were used for this project. Multivariable models were computed to study associations between CFRD and VO_2peak (mL.min^-1) adjusting for a set of pre-defined covariates: age, sex, weight, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), breathing reserve index, Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection, and physical activity (aerobic step counts from pedometry). Variables were selected based on their potential confounding effect on the association between VO_2peak and CFRD.

RESULTS

Among 117 randomized individuals, 103 (52% female) had a maximal exercise test and were included in the analysis. Participants with (n = 19) and without (n = 84) CFRD did not differ in FEV₁, physical activity, nutritional status, and other clinical characteristics. There were also no differences in VO_2peak (mL.min^-1 or mL.kg^-1.min^-1 or% predicted). In the final multivariable model, all pre-defined covariates were significant predictors of VO_2peak (mL.min^-1), however CFRD [coefficient 82.1, 95% CI -69.5 to 233.8, p = 0.28] was not.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests no meaningful differences in VO_2peak between people with and without CFRD given comparable levels of physical activity.

Treatments for Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Systematic Review, Network Meta-analysis, and Benefit-harm assessment

CONTEXT

Multiple treatments for metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) are available, but their effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and benefit-harm balance remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess clinical effectiveness regarding survival and HRQoL, safety, and benefit-harm balance of mHSPC treatments.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov until March 1, 2022. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing docetaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide, darolutamide, and radiotherapy combined with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) mutually or with ADT alone were eligible. Three reviewers independently performed screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment in duplicate.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Across ten RCTs, we found relevant survival benefits for ADT + docetaxel (high certainty according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation [GRADE]), ADT + abiraterone (moderate certainty), ADT + enzalutamide (low certainty), ADT + apalutamide (high certainty), and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide (high certainty) compared with ADT alone. ADT + radiotherapy appeared effective only in low-volume de novo mHSPC. We found a short-term HRQoL decrease lasting 3-6 mo for ADT + docetaxel (moderate certainty) and a potential HRQoL benefit for ADT + abiraterone up to 24 mo of follow-up (moderate certainty) compared with ADT alone. There was no difference in HRQoL for ADT + enzalutamide, ADT + apalutamide, or ADT + radiotherapy over ADT alone (low-high certainty). Grade 3-5 adverse effect rates were increased with all systemic combination treatments. A benefit-harm assessment showed high probabilities (>60%) for a net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + enzalutamide, and ADT + apalutamide, while ADT + docetaxel and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide appeared unlikely (<40%) to be beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite substantial survival benefits, no systemic combination treatment showed a clear HRQoL improvement compared with ADT alone. We found evidence for a short-term HRQoL decline with ADT + docetaxel and a higher net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + apalutamide and ADT + enzalutamide. While individualized decision-making remains important and economic factors need to be considered, the evidence may support a general preference for the combination of ADT with androgen receptor axis-targeted therapies over docetaxel-containing strategies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We assessed different combination treatments for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. While survival was better with all systemic combination treatments, there was no clear improvement in health-related quality of life compared with androgen deprivation therapy alone. Novel hormonal combination treatments had a more favorable benefit-harm balance than combination treatments that include chemotherapy.

Survival modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for newly diagnosed metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

In metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) treatment, survival benefits have been shown by adding docetaxel or recent androgen receptor axis-targeted therapies (ARATs) abiraterone, apalutamide, or enzalutamide to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). However, the optimal treatment strategy in terms of costs and effects is unclear, not least due to high ARAT costs.

METHODS

To assess treatment cost-effectiveness, we developed a Markov cohort model with health states of progression-free disease, progressive disease and death for men with newly diagnosed mHSPC, with a 30-year time horizon. Survival data, adverse events and utilities were informed by randomized controlled trial results, our meta-analysis of re-created individual patient survival data, and publicly available sources of unit costs. We applied a Swiss healthcare payer perspective and discounted costs and effects by 3%.

RESULTS

We found a significant overall survival benefit for ADT+abiraterone versus ADT+docetaxel. The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was predicted to be EUR 39,814 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. ADT+apalutamide and ADT+enzalutamide incurred higher costs and lower QALYs compared to ADT+abiraterone. For all ARATs, drug costs constituted the most substantial cost component. Results were stable except for a large univariable reduction in the pre-progression utility under ADT+abiraterone and very large variations in drug prices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model projected ADT+abiraterone to be cost-effective compared to ADT+docetaxel at a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 70,400/QALY (CHF 100,000 applying purchasing power parities). Given lower estimated QALYs for ADT+apalutamide and ADT+enzalutamide compared to ADT+abiraterone, the former only became cost-effective (the preferred) treatment option(s) at substantial 75-80% (80-90%) price reductions.

Influence of cantonal health policy frameworks & activities on the influenza vaccination rate in patients with non-communicable diseases in Switzerland

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Seasonal influenza may cause serious illness, especially in high-risk populations such as older adults and individuals suffering from non-communicable diseases (NCD) and may be prevented by a vaccination. However, an assessment of the impact of the Swiss legal frameworks and number of health activities on influenza vaccination coverage of the population at the cantonal level is lacking.

METHODS

Two participating healthcare insurers sent out 25,000 semi-structured questionnaires to their subscribers aged 60-85 in five Swiss cantons selected according to the number of health activities and legal framework regarding influenza vaccination and linguistic region. Influenza vaccination coverage of the participants was evaluated and stratified by disease status, age, canton, and linguistic region. Results were compared by cantonal activities, legal framework, and linguistic region.

RESULTS

7,617 valid questionnaires were evaluated from the cantons Aargau, Jura, St. Gallen, Schwyz, and Vaud. 47.9 % stated to have an NCD, with the most frequent being muscle/ skeletal disease (36.7%). Before 2018, 48.6% were vaccinated against influenza, and 35.9% in 2019, with the highest in canton Vaud. In all cantons and in both survey periods, NCD patients and those aged 73-85 had a higher vaccination coverage than participants without NCD, and aged 60-72. There was no difference in the odds of getting an influenza shot based on legal framework. Although a comparison of the number of activities between the German-speaking cantons did not reveal any significant differences, the odds of the participants living in a French-speaking canton getting an influenza vaccination was more likely than those living in a German-speaking canton.

CONCLUSION

There was no association between the investigated cantonal frameworks and number of health activities and influenza vaccination coverage in NCD patients in the selected cantons. However, age, disease status and linguistic region appear to have an influence on vaccination uptake.

Lifestyle Behaviours of Children and Adolescents During the First Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland and Their Relation to Well-Being: An Observational Study

Objectives: To describe changes in adherence to recommendations for physical activity (PA), screen time (ST), and sleep duration over the first two waves of the pandemic in Switzerland, and to assess the associations of these lifestyle behaviours with life satisfaction and overall health as well-being indicators.

Methods: In this observational study, we included 2,534 participants (5–16 years) from four Swiss cantons. Participants, or their parents, completed repeated questionnaires and reported on their (child’s) lifestyle and well-being, between June 2020 and April 2021. We used linear and logistic regression models to assess the associations between lifestyle and well-being.

Results: The percentage of children meeting the recommendations for PA and ST decreased from the pre-pandemic period to the first wave, with a slight recovery during the second wave. Participants meeting all three recommendations during the second wave were more likely to report excellent health (OR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.00–2.76]) and higher life satisfaction (β: 0.46 [0.16–0.77]) in early 2021 than participants not meeting any recommendation.

Conclusion: We showed a substantial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children’s and adolescents’ lifestyle, and a positive association between meeting lifestyle recommendations and well-being.

Parents’ Working Conditions in the Early COVID-19 Pandemic and Children’s Health-Related Quality of Life: The Ciao Corona Study

Objective: To assess the associations between parents’ working conditions during the lockdown period (March-May 2020) and children’s health-related quality of life (HRQOL) over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Zurich, Switzerland.

Methods: We included 2211 children (6–16 years) and their parents from the prospective study Ciao Corona. Parents reported their employment status and working conditions during the lockdown. Children’s HRQOL was assessed in June-July 2020, January and March 2021 using the parents-report of the KINDL®. We used mixed models to assess the associations between parents’ working conditions and children’s HRQOL at the three time points.

Results: Children from families in which at least one parent changed their working conditions during the lockdown showed lower HRQOL in June-July 2020, than children from families in which neither parent experienced changes. Children from families in which at least one parent had to work remotely continued to show lower HRQOL in January and March 2021.

Conclusion: Changes in parents’ working conditions during lockdown were negatively associated with children’s HRQOL. Public health policies aiming to support families susceptible to adverse changes are needed.

The impact of seat height on 1-min sit-to-stand test performance in COPD: a randomised crossover trial

Study question

Is there a difference in the number of repetitions in the 1-minute sit-to-stand (1MSTS) test using an individually adapted seat height to 90° knee flexion (1MSTS_IND), compared with the commonly used standard chair seat height of 46 cm (1MSTS_STD), in people with COPD?

Methods

We conducted a single-centre, single-blinded, randomised crossover trial in people with COPD between August 2020 and March 2021 at a specialised rehabilitation clinic in Switzerland. After a learning 1MSTS test, all participants performed two 1MSTS tests in random order on consecutive days. Participants were blinded, as they did not receive detailed information on the testing protocols.

Results

49 individuals with COPD (47% female) participated. In a regression model adjusted for sequence period and subject, 1MSTS test performance was lower on 1MSTS_IND compared to 1MSTS_STD (−0.78 repetitions, 95% CI −1.47 to −0.11). In a second regression model additionally including the knee angle and an interaction term (1MSTS_IND×knee angle), the interaction term was significant: 0.18 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.30). The limits of agreement were between −5.5 and 4 repetitions.

Conclusion

Although we observed a statistically significant difference between 1MSTS_IND and 1MSTS_STD on a population level, the difference is negligible. Further studies may be needed to determine whether individual adaptation of seat height is needed for very tall or short people to ensure a valid assessment of 1MSTS test performance in COPD.

Performing the 1MSTS test on an individually adjusted chair versus a standard chair results in fewer repetitions (mean difference −0.78, 95% CI −1.47 to −0.11). However, the difference in repetitions is clinically negligible.https://bit.ly/3Oc8Rvp

Retrospective, matched case-control analysis of tickborne encephalitis vaccine effectiveness by booster interval, Switzerland 2006-2020

OBJECTIVE

To estimate effectiveness of tickborne encephalitis (TBE) vaccination by time interval (<5, 5-10 and 10+years) postvaccination.

DESIGN

A retrospective, matched case-control study PARTICIPANTS: Cases-all adult (age 18-79) TBE cases in Switzerland reported via the national mandatory disease reporting surveillance system from 2006 to 2020 (final n=1868). Controls-community controls from a database of randomly selected adults (age 18-79) participating in a 2018 cross-sectional study of TBE vaccination in Switzerland (final n=4625).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

For cases and controls, the number of TBE vaccine doses received and the time since last vaccination were determined. Individuals were classified as being 'unvaccinated' (0 doses), 'incomplete' (1-2 doses) or 'complete' (3+ doses). Individuals with 'complete' vaccination were further classified by time since the last dose was received (<5 years, 5-10 years or 10+ years). A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate vaccine effectiveness (VE: 100 × [1-OR]) for each vaccination status category.

RESULTS

VE for incomplete vaccination was 76.8% (95% CI 69.0% to 82.6%). For complete vaccination, overall VE was 95.0% (95% CI 93.5% to 96.1%). When the most recent dose was received <5 years prior VE was 91.6% (95% CI 88.4% to 94.0%), 95.2% (95% CI 92.4% to 97.0%) when the most recent dose was received 5-10 years prior, and 98.5% (95% CI 96.8% to 99.2%) when the most recent dose was received 10+ years prior.

CONCLUSIONS

That VE does not decrease among completely vaccinated individuals over 10+ years since last vaccination supports the longevity of the protective response following complete TBE vaccination. Our findings support the effectiveness of 10-year TBE booster intervals currently used in Switzerland.

Neoadjuvant Therapy for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: A New Standard of Care. Pooled Data From 3 Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to pool data from randomized controlled trials (RCT) limited to resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) to determine whether a neoadjuvant therapy impacts on disease-free survival (DFS) and surgical outcome.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Few underpowered studies have suggested benefits from neoadjuvant chemo (± radiation) for strictly resectable PDAC without offering conclusive recommendations.

METHODS

Three RCTs were identified comparing neoadjuvant chemo (± radio) therapy vs. upfront surgery followed by adjuvant therapy in all cases. Data were pooled targeting DFS as primary endpoint, whereas overall survival (OS), postoperative morbidity, and mortality were investigated as secondary endpoints. Survival endpoints DFS and OS were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression with study-specific baseline hazards.

RESULTS

A total of 130 patients were randomized (56 in the neoadjuvant and 74 in the control group). DFS was significantly longer in the neoadjuvant treatment group compared to surgery only [hazard ratio (HR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-0.9] (P = 0.01). Furthermore, DFS for the subgroup of R0 resections was similarly longer in the neoadjuvant treated group (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.35-0.9, P = 0.045). Although postoperative complications (Comprehensive Complication Index, CCI®) occurred less frequently (P = 0.008), patients after neoadjuvant therapy experienced a higher toxicity, but without negative impact on oncological or surgical outcome parameters.

CONCLUSION

Neoadjuvant therapy can be offered as an acceptable standard of care for patients with purely resectable PDAC. Future research with the advances of precision oncology should now focus on the definition of the optimal regimen.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and clusters in school children from June 2020 to April 2021: prospective cohort study Ciao Corona

BACKGROUND

Few studies have explored the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in schools in 2021, with the advent of variants of concern. We aimed to examine the evolution of the proportion of seropositive children at schools from June-July 2020 to March-April 2021. We also examined symptoms, under-detection of infections, potential preventive effect of face masks, and reasons for non-participation in the study.

METHODS

Children in lower (7–10 years), middle (8–13 years) and upper (12–17 years) school levels in randomly selected schools and classes in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, were invited to participate in the prospective cohort study Ciao Corona. Three testing rounds were completed in June-July 2020, October-November 2020 and March-April 2021. From 5230 invited, 2974 children from 275 classes in in 55 schools participated in at least one testing round. We measured SARS-CoV-2 serology in venous blood, and parents filled in questionnaires on sociodemographic information and symptoms.

RESULTS

The proportion of children seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 increased from 1.5% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.6–2.6%) by June-July 2020, to 6.6% (4.0–8.9%) by October-November, and to 16.4% (12.1–19.5%) by March-April 2021. By March-April 2021, children in upper school level (12.4%; 7.3–16.7%) were less likely to be seropositive than those in middle (19.5%; 14.2–24.4%) or lower school levels (16.0%; 11.0–20.4%). The ratio of PCR-diagnosed to all seropositive children changed from one to 21.7 (by June-July 2020) to one to 3.5 (by March-April 2021). Potential clusters of three or more newly seropositive children were detected in 24 of 119 (20%) classes, 17 from which could be expected by chance. Clustering was not higher than expected by chance in middle and upper school levels. Children in the upper school level, who were wearing face masks at school from November 2020, had a 5.1% (95% confidence interval 9.4% to 0.7%) lower than expected seroprevalence by March-April 2021 than those in middle school level, based on difference-in-differences analysis. Symptoms were reported by 37% of newly seropositive and 16% seronegative children. Fear of blood sampling (64%) was the most frequently reported reason for non-participation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the proportion of seropositive children increased from 1.5% in June-July 2020 to 16.4% in March-April 2021, few infections were likely associated with potential spread within schools. In March-April 2021, significant clustering of seropositive children within classes was observed only in the lower school level.

COVID-19 pandemic restrictions continuously impact on physical activity in adults with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

We have recently reported reduced physical activity (PA) in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) with and without lung transplantation (LTX) during a 6-week stringent lockdown in Switzerland. This follow-up study explores the impact of coronavirus-2019 disease (COVID-19) related pandemic restrictions on individuals' therapy regimens and health-related aspects in pwCF.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional web-based national survey in Spring 2021. The survey included questions on daily PA, airway clearance and inhalation therapy, questions on COVID-19-compatible symptoms, diagnostic tests and vaccination status, and enquired health-related aspects covering the pandemic period between March 2020 to April 2021.

RESULTS

193 individuals with CF (53% female; 25% LTX recipients) participated. Among pwCF, 10 reported COVID-19 (n = 2 LTX recipients), two subjects were hospitalized, no invasive ventilation required, no deaths. The clinical course was generally mild. Overall, 46% reported less PA during the pandemic, mostly due to closed fitness facilities (85%), lack of motivation (34%), and changes in daily structures (21%). In contrast, 32/193 (17%) pwCF were able to increase their PA levels: 12 (38%) and 11 (34%) reported undertaking home-based training and outdoor activities more frequently; 6 (19%) reported an increase in routine PA, and another 3 (9%) started new activities. Among pwCF without LTX, 5% and 4% reported to undertake less airway clearance and inhalation therapy, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals unfavorable consequences of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on PA of pwCF with unknown long-term consequences for their overall physical fitness and lung health. Strategies to overcome this undesirable situation are needed; increased uptake of telehealth PA programs and virtual exercise classes to promote PA participation might be one promising approach along with vaccination of pwCF and their close contacts.

Lung diffusing capacity for nitric oxide measured by two commercial devices: a randomised crossover comparison in healthy adults

In Europe, two commercial devices are available to measure combined single-breath diffusing capacity of the lung for nitric oxide (D_LNO) and carbon monoxide (D_LCO) in one manoeuvre. Reference values were derived by pooling datasets from both devices, but agreement between devices has not been established.

We conducted a randomised crossover trial in 35 healthy adults (age 40.0±15.5 years, 51% female) to compare D_LNO (primary end-point) between MasterScreen™ (Vyaire Medical, Mettawa, IL, USA) and HypAir (Medisoft, Dinant, Belgium) devices during a single visit under controlled conditions. Linear mixed models were used adjusting for device and period as fixed effects and random intercept for each participant.

Difference in D_LNO between HypAir and MasterScreen was 24.0 mL·min⁻¹·mmHg⁻¹ (95% CI 21.7–26.3). There was no difference in D_LCO (−0.03 mL·min⁻¹·mmHg⁻¹, 95% CI −0.57–0.12) between devices while alveolar volume (V_A) was higher on HypAir compared to MasterScreen™ (0.48 L, 95% CI 0.45–0.52). Disparity in the estimation of V_A and the rate of NO uptake (K_NO=D_LNO/V_A) could explain the discrepancy in D_LNO between devices. Disparity in the estimation of V_A and the rate of CO uptake (K_CO=D_LCO/V_A) per unit of V_A offset each other resulting in negligible discrepancy in D_LCO between devices. Differences in methods of expiratory gas sampling and sensor specifications between devices likely explain these observations.

These findings have important implications for derivation of D_LNO reference values and comparison of results across studies. Until this issue is resolved, reference values, established on the respective devices, should be used for test interpretation.

Large discrepancies between commercial devices to measure single-breath diffusing capacity of the lung for nitric oxide in healthy subjects caution against pooling or direct comparison of measurements obtained using different protocols and deviceshttps://bit.ly/3vKyF7U

Prediction of Past SARS-CoV-2 Infections: A Prospective Cohort Study Among Swiss Schoolchildren

Objective: To assess the predictive value of symptoms, sociodemographic characteristics, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure in household, school, and community setting for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in Swiss schoolchildren at two time points in 2020. Design: Serological testing of children in primary and secondary schools (aged 6-13 and 12-16 years, respectively) took place in June-July (T1) and October-November (T2) 2020, as part of the longitudinal, school-based study Ciao Corona in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. Information on sociodemographic characteristics and clinical history was collected with questionnaires to parents; information on school-level SARS-CoV-2 infections was collected with questionnaires to school principals. Community-level cumulative incidence was obtained from official statistics. We used logistic regression to identify individual predictors of seropositivity and assessed the predictive performance of symptom- and exposure-based prediction models. Results: A total of 2,496 children (74 seropositive) at T1 and 2,152 children (109 seropositive) at T2 were included. Except for anosmia (odds ratio 15.4, 95% confidence interval [3.4-70.7]) and headache (2.0 [1.03-3.9]) at T2, none of the individual symptoms were significantly predictive of seropositivity at either time point. Of all the exposure variables, a reported SARS-CoV-2 case in the household was the strongest predictor for seropositivity at T1 (12.4 [5.8-26.7]) and T2 (10.8 [4.5-25.8]). At both time points, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was greater for exposure-based (T1, 0.69; T2, 0.64) than symptom-based prediction models (T1, 0.59; T2, 0.57). Conclusions: In children, retrospective identification of past SARS-CoV-2 infections based on symptoms is imprecise. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity is better predicted by factors of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, especially reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in the household. Predicting SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in children in general is challenging, as few reliable predictors could be identified. For an accurate retrospective identification of SARS-CoV-2 infections in children, serological tests are likely indispensable. Trial registration number: NCT04448717.

Accompanied versus unaccompanied walking for continuous oxygen saturation measurement during 6-min walk test in COPD: a randomised crossover study

The aim of this study was to determine if there is a difference in 6-min walk test (6MWT) distance when the assessor accompanies the patient to continuously measure peripheral oxygen saturation (S_pO2) compared to the patient walking unaccompanied.

 We conducted a randomised crossover study to evaluate the impact of the assessor walking with the patient during the 6MWT (6MWT_with) versus the patient walking alone (6MWT_without). At the end of a pulmonary rehabilitation programme, each patient performed two 6MWTs in random order and separated by a 30-min rest.

 49 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease classification II–IV) were included. In a regression model adjusting for period and subject, accompanying the patient resulted in a lower walking distance (mean difference −9.1 m, 95% CI −13.9– −4.3, p=0.0004). Notably, six patients walked more than 30 m farther (minimal important difference) in one of the two conditions (6MWT_with: n=1, 6MWT_without: n=5). There were no between-sequence-group differences in heart rate, dyspnoea, leg fatigue and S_pO2. The median (interquartile range) number and duration of S_pO2 signal artefacts were high but not different between the experimental conditions (6MWT_with: 17 (4–24), 34 s (7–113 s); 6 MWT_without: 11 (3–26), 24 s (4–62 s)).

 At a study population level, we observed a statistically significant difference in 6MWT distance between the two experimental conditions; however, the magnitude of difference was small and may not be clinically relevant. Nevertheless, in a clinical setting, unaccompanied walking resulted in a substantially higher walking distance in individual patients, pointing towards strictly standardised testing methodology, in particular in pre–post study designs.

Accompanied walking during a 6MWT versus unaccompanied walking results in shorter walked distance (mean difference −9.1 m, 95% CI −13.9– −4.3 m). No differences in nadir S_pO2 or oximetry artefacts were noted between accompanied and unaccompanied walking.https://bit.ly/3tBjfCq

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence across districts, schools and classes: baseline measurements from a cohort of primary and secondary school children in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

To determine the variation in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in school children and the relationship with self-reported symptoms.

DESIGN

Baseline measurements of a longitudinal cohort study (Ciao Corona) from June to July 2020.

SETTING

55 schools stratified by district in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

2585 children (1339 girls; median age: 11 years, age range: 6-16 years), attending grades 1-2, 4-5 and 7-8.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Variation in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children across 12 cantonal districts, schools and grades, assessed using Luminex-based test of four epitopes for IgG, IgA and IgM (Antibody Coronavirus Assay,ABCORA 2.0). Clustering of cases within classes. Association of seropositivity and symptoms. Comparison with seroprevalence in adult population, assessed using Luminex-based test of IgG and IgA (Sensitive Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike Trimer Immunoglobulin Serological test).

RESULTS

Overall seroprevalence was 2.8% (95% CI 1.5% to 4.1%), ranging from 1.0% to 4.5% across districts. Seroprevalence in grades 1-2 was 3.8% (95% CI 2.0% to 6.1%), in grades 4-5 was 2.4% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.2%) and in grades 7-8 was 1.5% (95% CI 0.5% to 3.0%). At least one seropositive child was present in 36 of 55 (65%) schools and in 44 (34%) of 131 classes where ≥5 children and ≥50% of children within the class were tested. 73% of children reported COVID-19-compatible symptoms since January 2020, with the same frequency in seropositive and seronegative children for all symptoms. Seroprevalence of children and adults was similar (3.2%, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 5.0% vs 3.6%, 95% CrI 1.7% to 5.4%). The ratio of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence-to-seropositive cases was 1:89 in children and 1:12 in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was low in children and similar to that in adults by the end of June 2020. Very low ratio of diagnosed-to-seropositive children was observed. We did not detect clustering of SARS-CoV-2-seropositive children within classes, but the follow-up of this study will shed more light on transmission within schools.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04448717.

Reference values and validation of the 1-minute sit-to-stand test in healthy 5-16-year-old youth: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

It is essential to have simple, reliable and valid tests to measure children's functional capacity in schools or medical practice. The 1-minute sit-to-stand (STS) test is a quick fitness test requiring little equipment or space that is increasingly used in both healthy populations and those with chronic disease. We aimed to provide age-specific and sex-specific reference values of STS test in healthy children and adolescents and to evaluate its short-term reliability and construct validity.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional convenience sample from six public schools and one science fair in central Europe. Overall, 587 healthy participants aged 5-16 years were recruited and divided into age groups of 3 years each.

OUTCOMES

1-minute STS. To evaluate short-term reliability, some children performed the STS test twice. To evaluate construct validity, some children also performed a standing long jump (SLJ) and a maximal incremental exercise test.

RESULTS

Data from 547 youth aged 5-16 years were finally included in the analyses. The median number of repetitions in 1 min in males (females) ranged from 55 [95% CI: 38 to 72] (53 [95% CI: 35 to 76]) in 14-16-year olds to 59 [95% CI: 41 to 77] (60 [95% CI: 38 to 77]) in 8-10-year olds. Children who repeated STS showed a learning effect of on average 4.8 repetitions more than the first test (95% limits of agreement: -6.7 to 16.4). Moderate correlations were observed between the STS and the SLJ (r=0.48) tests and the maximal exercise test (r=0.43).

CONCLUSIONS

The reported STS reference values can be used to interpret STS test performance in children and adolescents. The STS appears to have good test-retest reliability, but a learning effect of about 10%. The association of STS with other measures of physical fitness should be further explored in a larger study and technical standards for its conduct are needed.

Clustering and longitudinal change in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in school children in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland: prospective cohort study of 55 schools

OBJECTIVES

To examine longitudinal changes in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence and to determine the clustering of children who were seropositive within school classes in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland from June to November 2020.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Switzerland had one of the highest second waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe in autumn 2020. Keeping schools open provided a moderate to high exposure environment to study SARS-CoV-2 infections. Children from randomly selected schools and classes, stratified by district, were invited for serological testing of SARS-CoV-2. Parents completed questionnaires on sociodemographic and health related questions.

PARTICIPANTS

275 classes in 55 schools; 2603 children participated in June-July 2020 and 2552 in October-November 2020 (age range 6-16 years).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serology of SARS-CoV-2 in June-July and October-November 2020, clustering of children who were seropositive within classes, and symptoms in children.

RESULTS

In June-July, 74 of 2496 children with serological results were seropositive; in October-November, the number had increased to 173 of 2503. Overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 2.4% (95% credible interval 1.4% to 3.6%) in the summer and 4.5% (3.2% to 6.0%) in late autumn in children who were not previously seropositive, leading to an estimated 7.8% (6.2% to 9.5%) of children who were ever seropositive. Seroprevalence varied across districts (in the autumn, 1.7-15.0%). No significant differences were found among lower, middle, and upper school levels (children aged 6-9 years, 9-13 years, and 12-16 years, respectively). Among the 2223 children who had serology tests at both testing rounds, 28/70 (40%) who were previously seropositive became seronegative, and 109/2153 (5%) who were previously seronegative became seropositive. Symptoms were reported for 22% of children who were seronegative and 29% of children who were newly seropositive since the summer. Between July and November 2020, the ratio of children diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection to those who were seropositive was 1 to 8. At least one child who was newly seropositive was detected in 47 of 55 schools and in 90 of 275 classes. Among 130 classes with a high participation rate, no children who were seropositive were found in 73 (56%) classes, one or two children were seropositive in 50 (38%) classes, and at least three children were seropositive in 7 (5%) classes. Class level explained 24% and school level 8% of variance in seropositivity in the multilevel logistic regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

With schools open since August 2020 and some preventive measures in place, clustering of children who were seropositive occurred in only a few classes despite an increase in overall seroprevalence during a period of moderate to high transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Uncertainty remains as to whether these findings will change with the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and dynamic levels of community transmission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT04448717.

NO2 and PM2.5 Exposures and Lung Function in Swiss Adults: Estimated Effects of Short-Term Exposures and Long-Term Exposures with and without Adjustment for Short-Term Deviations

BACKGROUND

The impact of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5. microns (PM2.5) exposures on lung function has been investigated mainly in children and less in adults. Furthermore, it is unclear whether short-term deviations of air pollutant concentration need to be considered in long-term exposure models.

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to investigate the association between short-term air pollution exposure and lung function and to assess whether short-term deviations of air pollutant concentration should be integrated into long-term exposure models.

METHODS

Short-term (daily averages 0-7 d prior) and long-term (1- and 4-y means) NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations were modeled using satellite, land use, and meteorological data calibrated on ground measurements. Forced expiratory volume within the first second (FEV1) of forced exhalation and forced vital capacity (FVC) were measured during a LuftiBus assessment (2003-2012) and linked to exposure information from the Swiss National Cohort for 36,085 adults (ages 18-95 y). We used multiple linear regression to estimate adjusted associations, and additionally adjusted models of long-term exposures for short-term deviations in air pollutant concentrations.

RESULTS

A 10μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 on the day of the pulmonary function test was associated with lower FEV1 and FVC (NO2: FEV1 -8.0 ml [95% confidence interval: -13.4, -2.7], FVC -16.7 ml [-23.4, -10.0]; PM2.5: FEV1 -15.3 ml [-21.9, -8.7], FVC -18.5 ml [-26.5, -10.5]). A 10μg/m3 increase in 1-y mean NO2 was also associated with lower FEV1 (-7.7 ml; -15.9, 0.5) and FVC (-21.6 ml; -31.9, -11.4), as was a 10μg/m3 increase in 1-y mean PM2.5 (FEV1: -42.2 ml; -56.9, -27.5; FVC: -82.0 ml; -100.1, -63.9). These associations were robust to adjustment for short-term deviations in the concentration of each air pollutant.

CONCLUSIONS

Short- and long-term air pollution exposures were negatively associated with lung function, in particular long-term PM2.5 exposure with FVC. Our findings contribute substantially to the evidence of adverse associations between air pollution and lung function in adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7529.

Seroprevalence and immunity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents in schools in Switzerland: design for a longitudinal, school-based prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This longitudinal cohort study aims to assess the extent and patterns of seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in school-attending children, and their parents and school personnel. It will examine risk factors for infection, the relationship between seropositivity and symptoms, and temporal persistence of antibodies.

METHODS

The study (Ciao Corona) will enroll a regionally representative, random sample of schools in the canton of Zurich, where 18% of the Swiss population live. Children aged 5-16 years, attending primary and secondary schools, and their parents and school personnel are invited. Venous blood and saliva samples are collected for serological testing in June/July 2020, in October/November 2020, and in March/April 2021. Bi-monthly questionnaires will cover SARS-CoV-2 symptoms and tests, health, preventive behavior, and lifestyle information. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models will account for sensitivity and specificity of the serological tests in the analyses and complex sampling structure, i.e., clustering within classes and schools.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

This unique school-based study will allow describing temporal trends of immunity, evaluate effects of preventive measures and will inform goal-oriented policy decisions during subsequent outbreaks. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04448717, registered June 26, 2020. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04448717 .

TOURIST2 - Tracking of urgent risks in swiss travellers to the 6 main travel destinations - Feasibility and ethical considerations of a smartphone application-based study

BACKGROUND

The adoption of mHealth technology in travel medicine is a relatively new and unexplored field. We have further developed a TRAVEL application (app) for real-time data monitoring during travel. In this manuscript we report on the feasibility using this new app in a large and diverse cohort of travellers to three continents.

METHODS

We enrolled 1000 participants from the travel clinics of Zurich and Basel, Switzerland, aged ≥18 years, travelling to Thailand, India, China, Tanzania, Brazil and Peru between 09/2017-01/2019. Participants included healthy travellers, individuals with pre-existing chronic diseases and elderly travellers (≥60 years). Participants completed an app-based daily survey on risk behaviours/health incidents pre-, during and after travel. Simultaneously, GPS locations were tightly collected and linked to environmental data.

RESULTS

793 (79%) travellers answered at least one questionnaire during their trip. Participants' median age was 34 years (range 18-84 years); 8% were aged ≥60 years; 55% female; 32% had pre-existing chronic diseases. Completion rates were similar in younger and elderly travellers and in those with and without pre-existing diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a smartphone app is a feasible method for collecting behavioural and health data in elderly travellers and individuals with chronic diseases travelling to three continents.

Recommended shielding against COVID-19 impacts physical activity levels in adults with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome - coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic threatening the life of people with chronic respiratory diseases including cystic fibrosis (CF). This study was designed to investigate health-related aspects of individuals with CF, with and without lung transplantation (LTX), their communication with their specialist healthcare providers during the pandemic, potential changes in peoples' individual therapy regimes and daily physical activity levels.

METHODS

A web-based survey was conducted among Swiss adults with CF with and without LTX, study period from March 16th, 2020 - the day the "extraordinary situation" was officially declared in Switzerland introducing stringent measures protecting the public - until May 16th, 2020.

RESULTS

327 individuals (25% LTX recipients) were included, 45 individuals reported coronavirus-2019 disease (COVID-19) like symptoms. Of 28 subjects tested, only three subjects were tested positive, all with mild symptoms, no hospitalization required. Almost half of the survey respondents (45%) reported undertaking less physical activity during the lockdown, while 79% and 91% of participants reported no change in traditional airway clearance and inhalation therapies, respectively. Distress regarding a potential SARS-CoV-2 infection or worsening of lung disease were no major concerns for subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals that the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 on clinical outcomes of individuals with CF was mild although people with chronic lung diseases like CF are considered a high-risk population; overall, this is reassuring. However, strict lockdown measures substantially affected peoples' physical activity levels, a vital cornerstone of CF therapy; and this is worrisome.

Global variation of risk thresholds for initiating statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a benefit-harm balance modelling study

Background

We previously showed that the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk threshold to initiate statins for primary prevention depends on the baseline CVD risk, age, sex, and the incidence of statin-related harm outcome and competing risk for non-CVD death. As these factors appear to vary across countries, we aimed in this study to determine country-specific thresholds and provide guidelines a quantitative benefit-harm assessment method for local adaptation.

Methods

For each of the 186 countries included, we replicated the benefit-harm balance analysis using an exponential model to determine the thresholds to initiate statin use for populations aged 40 to 75 years, with no history of CVD. The analyses took data inputs from a priori studies, including statin effect estimates (network meta-analysis), patient preferences (survey), and baseline incidence of harm outcomes and competing risk for non-CVD (global burden of disease study). We estimated the risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins were more likely to outweigh the harms using a stochastic approach to account for statistical uncertainty of the input parameters.

Results

The 5^th and 95^th percentiles of the 10-year risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins outweigh the harms across 186 countries ranged between 14 and 20% in men and 19–24% in women, depending on age (i.e., 90% of the country-specific thresholds were in the ranges stated). The median risk thresholds varied from 14 to 18.5% in men and 19 to 22% in women. The between-country variability of the thresholds was slightly attenuated when further adjusted for age resulting, for example, in a 5^th and 95^th percentiles of 14–16% for ages 40–44 years and 17–21% for ages 70–74 years in men. Some countries, especially the islands of the Western Pacific Region, had higher thresholds to achieve net benefit of statins at 25–36% 10-year CVD risks.

Conclusions

This extensive benefit-harm analysis modeling shows that a single CVD risk threshold, irrespective of age, sex and country, is not appropriate to initiate statin use globally. Instead, countries need to carefully determine thresholds, considering the national or subnational contexts, to optimize benefits of statins while minimizing related harms and economic burden.

Effects of suboptimal adherence of CPAP therapy on symptoms of obstructive sleep apnoea: a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial

Introduction

Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is currently the treatment of choice for sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA); however, adherence is often thought to be suboptimal. We investigated the effects of suboptimal CPAP usage on objective and subjective sleepiness parameters in patients with OSA.

Material and methods

In this 2-week, parallel, double-blind, randomised controlled trial we enrolled moderate-to-severe OSA patients with excessive pre-treatment daytime sleepiness (Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) score >10 points) who had suboptimal CPAP adherence over ≥12 months (mean nightly usage time 3–4 h). Patients were allocated through minimisation to either subtherapeutic CPAP (“sham CPAP”) or continuation of CPAP (“therapeutic CPAP”). A Bayesian analysis with historical priors calculated the posterior probability of superiority.

Results

Between May, 2016 and November, 2018, 57 patients (aged 60±8 years, 79% male, 93% Caucasian) were allocated in total, and 52 who completed the study (50% in each arm) were included in the final analysis. The unadjusted ESS score increase was 2.4 points (95% CI 0.6–4.2, p=0.01) in the sham-CPAP group when compared to continuing therapeutic CPAP. The probability of superiority of therapeutic CPAP over sham CPAP was 90.4% for ESS, 90.1% for systolic blood pressure and 80.3% for diastolic blood pressure.

Conclusions

Patients with moderate-to-severe OSA and daytime sleepiness are still getting a substantial benefit from suboptimal CPAP adherence, albeit not as much as they might get if they adhered more. Whether a similar statement can be made for even lower adherence levels remains to be established in future trials.

Effect of Treatment of Central Sleep Apnea/Cheyne-Stokes Respiration on Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Heart Failure: A Network Meta-Analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Patients who have experienced heart failure with central sleep apnea/Cheyne-Stokes respiration (CSA/CSR) have an impaired prognosis. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and adaptive servoventilation (ASV) as well as nocturnal oxygen (O₂) are proposed treatment modalities of CSA/CSR. The goal of the study is to assess whether and how different treatments of CSA/CSR affect cardiac function.

METHODS

Databases were searched up to December 2017 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effect of any combination of CPAP, ASV, O₂ or an inactive control on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with heart failure and CSA/CSR. A systematic review and network meta-analysis using multivariate random-effects meta-regression were performed.

RESULTS

Twenty-four RCTs (1,289 patients) were included in the systematic review and data of 16 RCTs (951 patients; apnea-hypopnea-index 38 ± 3/h, LVEF 29 ± 3%) could be pooled in a network meta-analysis. Compared to an inactive control, both CPAP and ASV significantly improved LVEF by 4.4% (95% confidence interval 0.3-8.5%, P = 0.036) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval 0.6-7.0%, P = 0.025), respectively, whereas O₂ had no effect on LVEF (P = 0.35). There was no difference in treatment effects on LVEF between CPAP and ASV (P = 0.76). The treatment effect of positive pressure ventilation was larger when baseline LVEF was lower in systolic heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

CPAP and ASV are effective in improving LVEF in patients with heart failure and CSA/CSR to a clinically relevant amount, whereas nocturnal O₂ is not. There is no difference between CPAP and ASV in the comparative beneficial effect on cardiac function.

Endocrine responses during CPAP withdrawal in obstructive sleep apnoea: data from two randomised controlled trials

The aim of this investigation was to elucidate the effect of CPAP withdrawal on neurometabolic and cardiometabolic markers in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea. We evaluated 70 patients (mean age 61±10 years, 82% men) treated with CPAP in two 2-week, parallel, randomised controlled trials. CPAP withdrawal resulted in elevated 3,4-dihydroxyphenylglycol, norepinephrine and cortisol after 2 weeks of CPAP withdrawal; however, no statistically significant changes of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) determinants were documented. In summary, CPAP withdrawal may be more prominently linked to short-term increases in sympathetic activation than hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis or RAAS activation. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02493673 and NCT02050425.

Bronchoalveolar lavage cytokines are of minor value to diagnose complications following lung transplantation

Early diagnosis and treatment of acute cellular rejection (ACR) may improve long-term outcome for lung transplant recipients (LTRs). Cytokines have become valuable diagnostic tools in many medical fields. The role of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytokines is of unknown value to diagnose ACR and distinguish rejection from infection. We hypothesized that distinct cytokine patterns obtained by surveillance bronchoscopies during the first year after transplantation are associated with ACR and microbiologic findings.

We retrospectively analyzed data from 319 patients undergoing lung transplantation at University Hospital Zurich from 1998 to 2016. We compared levels of IL-6, IL-8, IFN-γ and TNF-α in 747 BAL samples with transbronchial biopsies (TBB) and microbiologic results from surveillance bronchoscopies. We aimed to define reference values that would allow distinction between four specific groups “ACR”, “infection”, “combined ACR and infection” and “no pathologic process”. No definitive pattern was identified. Given the overlap between groups, these four cytokines are not suitable diagnostic markers for ACR or infection after lung transplantation.

Clinical and radiographic course of early undifferentiated arthritis under treatment is not dependent on the number of joints with erosions at diagnosis: results from the Swiss prospective observational cohort

Objective

To analyse whether early arthritis patients who do not fulfil the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism (ACR/EULAR) 2010 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a different course of the disease dependent on whether they can or cannot be classified as RA because of radiographic disease (EULAR task force) at diagnosis.

Methods

For this observational study within the Swiss RA cohort SCQM, we included patients with early undifferentiated arthritis (disease duration ≤1 year), who had not received any previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria negative patients were separated into two groups (radiographic vs non-radiographic arthritis) depending on whether or not they had radiographic changes defined as erosive disease by a EULAR task force (≥3 joints with erosions). The primary outcome measure was the radiographic progression detected employing the Ratingen erosion score. Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) and DAS-28 were used as secondary outcome measures. The average observation period was 4 years.

Results

A total of 592 patients were analysed. 240 were not classifiable as RA by application of the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria at baseline. In 57 patients, radiographs at the first visit were not available. 133 patients had radiographic arthritis and 50 non-radiographic arthritis. Treatment was initiated in all patients with DMARDs, mostly methotrexate. No differences in DAS-28 and HAQ scores were found during follow-up. The average erosion scores were higher among patients with initially radiographic arthritis throughout the study. The progression of erosion scores over time, however, was higher in patients with initially non-radiographic arthritis with less subsequent radiological progression (3.3 erosions/year vs 0.4, respectively, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

The clinical and radiographic course of early undifferentiated arthritis under treatment was not dependent on the presence of erosions in three or more joints (ie, the definition of radiographic disease by the EULAR task force) at diagnosis in our cohort.

BMI-mortality association: shape independent of smoking status but different for chronic lung disease and lung cancer

Background

Besides smoking, low or high body mass index (BMI) is associated with chronic lung disease (CLD). It is unclear how CLD is associated with BMI, whether smoking interacts with this association, and how the associations differ from the patterns known for lung cancer.

Population and Methods

Our population comprised 35,212 individuals aged 14–99, who participated in population-based surveys conducted in 1977–1993 in Switzerland (mortality follow-up until 2014). We categorized smokers into never, former, light, and heavy; and BMI into underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese. Hazard ratios (HRs) were obtained with multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

CLD mortality was strongly associated with being underweight. This was mainly due to the effect in men (HR 5.04 [2.63–9.66]) and also prevailed in never smokers (HR 1.81 [1.11–3.00]). Obesity was also associated with CLD mortality (HR men: 1.37 [1.01–1.86], women: 1.39 [0.90–2.17]), but not with lung cancer mortality. In line with lung cancer, for CLD, the BMI–mortality association followed the same shape in all smoking categories, suggesting that this association was largely independent of smoking status.

Conclusion

The shape of the BMI–mortality association was inversely linear for lung cancer but followed a U-shape for CLD. Further research should examine the potentially protective effect of obesity on lung cancer occurrence and the possibly hazardous impact of underweight on CLD development.

Pulmonary involvement in Fabry disease: effect of plasma globotriaosylsphingosine and time to initiation of enzyme replacement therapy

Introduction

Anderson-Fabry disease (AFD) is an X-linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by mutations of GLA gene leading to reduced α-galactosidase activity and resulting in a progressive accumulation of globotriaosylceramide (Gb3) and its deacylated derivative, globotriaosyl-sphingosine (Lyso-Gb3). Plasma Lyso-Gb3 levels serve as a disease severity and treatment monitoring marker during enzyme replacement therapy (ERT).

Methods

Adult patients with AFD who had yearly pulmonary function tests between 1999 and 2015 were eligible for this observational study. Primary outcome measures were the change in z-score of forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV₁) and FEV₁/FVC over time. Plasma Lyso-Gb3 levels and the age of ERT initiation were investigated for their association with lung function decline.

Results

Fifty-three patients (42% male, median (range) age at diagnosis of AFD 34 (6–61) years in men, 34 (13–67) in women) were included. The greatest decrease of FEV₁/FVC z-scores was observed in Classic men (−0.048 per year, 95% CI −0.081 to –0.014), compared with the Later-Onset men (+0.013,95% CI −0.055 to 0.082), Classic women (−0.008, 95% CI −0.035 to +0.020) and Later-Onset women (−0.013, 95% CI −0.084 to +0.058). Cigarette smoking (P=0.022) and late ERT initiation (P=0.041) were independently associated with faster FEV₁ decline. FEV₁/FVC z-score decrease was significantly reduced after initiation of ERT initiation (−0.045 compared with −0.015, P=0.014). Furthermore, there was a trend towards a relevant influence of Lyso-Gb3 (P=0.098) on airflow limitation with age.

Conclusion

Early ERT initiation seems to preserve pulmonary function. Plasma Lyso-Gb3 is maybe a useful predictor for airflow limitation. Classic men need a closer monitoring of the lung function.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior in preschoolers: a longitudinal assessment of trajectories and determinants

BACKGROUND

Despite physical activity (PA) being recognized as a critically important factor for good physical and mental health already early in life and throughout the life course, prospective data on activity behavior during the preschool years remains scarce. This study examined trajectories and determinants of levels and change in total PA (TPA), moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and sedentary behavior (SB) in a representative sample of Swiss preschoolers.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the Swiss Preschoolers' Health Study (SPLASHY), a multi-site prospective cohort study including 555 children (53% boys) aged 2-to-6 years at baseline. A follow-up was conducted after 12 months. Activity behavior was measured using accelerometers. Information on 35 potential determinants from different socio-ecological domains was either directly measured or parent-reported. Trajectories of TPA, MVPA and SB over time were described for boys and girls. Linear mixed models were used to investigate factors that predicted levels and change in TPA, MVPA and SB.

RESULTS

All children were sufficiently physically active according to published recommendations for preschoolers. Trajectory profiles revealed a marked increase in TPA and MVPA in boys and girls whereas SB remained fairly stable over time. Mixed modeling demonstrated that variables most relevant to determining PA levels were sex, age and activity temperament (all positively associated). Together with gross motor skills, birth weight, family structure (only for TPA) and season (only for MVPA), these factors accounted for 26 and 32% of total variance explained in TPA and MVPA, respectively. Activity temperament emerged as the strongest determinant of SB (negative association) and explained with sex, season and family structure 20% of total variance in SB. The presence of older siblings was the only factor that predicted change in PA over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In this healthy physically active cohort of preschoolers, non-modifiable individual-level factors had the greatest influence on PA. The limited success of this and previous studies to identify modifiable determinants and the finding that most preschoolers were sufficiently active suggest that future attempts should provide insights into how preschoolers' activity levels can be maintained and fostered to prevent subsequent harmful declines attributable, amongst others, to educational transitions. Thus, good-quality longitudinal studies are needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41045021 (date of registration: 21.03.14).

Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD.

METHODS

We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores.

RESULTS

Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUCADO - AUCBODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated - AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.

Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores

BACKGROUND

Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them.

METHODS

Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined.

RESULTS

We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small.

CONCLUSIONS

We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.

Prognostic value of MIB-1 proliferation index in solitary fibrous tumors of the pleura implemented in a new score - a multicenter study

Background

Although the majority of solitary fibrous tumors of the pleura (SFTP) follow a benign course, 10–25% of patients suffer from recurrence or metastatic disease. Several scoring models have been proposed to predict the outcome. However, none of these included immunohistochemical (IHC) markers as possible prognosticators.

Methods

In this multicenter study, we collected clinical data and formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue blocks of patients with histologically proven SFTP which had been surgically resected between 2000 und 2015. After systematic and extensive IHC staining on tissue microarrays, the results were analyzed and compared to histomorphological and clinical data for their possible prognostic value.

Results

In total, 78 patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years) were included. Of these, 9 patients (11%) had an adverse outcome including SFTP recurrence (n = 6) or SFTP-related death (n = 3). Mean overall survival was 172 ± 13 months. 1 and 10-year event-free survival rates were 99% and 93%. In the multivariable analysis only MIB-1 proliferation index (Ki-67) ≥10% (HR 12.3, CI 1.1–139.5, p = 0.043), ≥4 mitoses per 10 high power fields (HR 36.5, CI 1.2–1103.7, p = 0.039) and tumor size larger than 10 cm (HR 81.8, CI 1.7–4016.8, p = 0.027) were independently associated with adverse outcome.

Conclusion

A high proliferation rate by MIB-1 IHC was associated with impaired outcome. Upon this, we established a new score using mitosis, necrosis, size of the tumor and MIB-1, which performed better than the traditional scores in our data set. This prognostic score could help to better evaluate outcome of SFTP, but requires external validation.

Body height and mortality - mortality follow-up of four Swiss surveys

BACKGROUND

Adult body height is largely determined by genetics, but also by dietary factors, which in turn depend on socioeconomic status and lifestyle. We examined the association between adult body height and mortality in Switzerland, a country with three main language regions with different cultural background.

METHODS

We included 16,831 men and 18,654 women, who participated in Swiss population-based health surveys conducted 1977-1993 and who were followed up until end of 2008. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were computed to examine the association of body height with overall, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality.

RESULTS

We observed a positive association between adult body height and all-cause mortality in women (HR=1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.62, tallest vs. average women). In men, mortality risk decreased with increasing height, with shortest men tending to have higher (1.06, 0.94-1.19) and tallest men a lower (0.94, 0.77-1.14) risk compared with men of average height (p-trend 0.0001). Body height was associated with cancer mortality in women, such that tallest women had a higher risk of dying from cancer than women of average height (1.37, 1.02-1.84), but there was no such association in men (0.95, 0.69-1.30). In both sexes, height was not associated with cardiovascular mortality in a statistically significant manner.

CONCLUSION

Our study does not support an inverse association of body height with all-cause mortality. On the contrary, our data suggests a higher overall risk in taller women, mainly driven by a positive association between body height and cancer mortality.

Long-term follow-up of pulmonary function in Fabry disease: A bi-center observational study

INTRODUCTION

Fabry disease (FD) is a lysosomal storage disorder leading to decreased α-galactosidase A enzyme activity and subsequent abnormal accumulation of glycosphingolipids in various organs. Although histological evidence of lung involvement has been demonstrated, the functional impact of these changes is less clear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adult patients with FD who had yearly pulmonary function tests (PFT) at two centers from 1999 thru 2015 were eligible for this observational study. Primary outcome measures were the change in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC over time. As secondary outcome we investigated sex, smoking, enzyme replacement therapy (ERT), residual enzyme activity, and Mainz Severity Score Index as possible predictors.

RESULTS

95 patients (41% male, 38.2 ± 14.5 years) were included. The overall prevalence of bronchial obstruction (BO, (FEV1/FVC < 70%)) was 46%, with male sex, age and smoking as significant predictors. FEV1 decreased 29 ml per year (95% CI -36, -22 ml, p<0.0001). FEV1 decline was significantly higher in males (p = 0.009) and in patients on ERT (p = 0.004). Conclusion: Pulmonary involvement seems to be a relevant manifestation of Fabry disease, and routine PFTs should therefore be included in the multidisciplinary follow-up of these patients.