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Ibarra-Espinosa S, Dias de Freitas E, Ropkins K, Dominici F, Rehbein A. Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in São Paulo, Brazil. Environ Res 2022; 204:112369. [PMID: 34767818 PMCID: PMC8577054 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Brazil, the country most impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the southern hemisphere, use intensive care admissions per day, mobility and other indices to monitor quarantines and prevent the transmissions of SARS-CoV-2. In this study we quantified the associations between residential mobility index (RMI), air pollution, meteorology, and daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. We applied a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate: 1) the association between RMI and COVID-19, accounting for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), relative humidity, temperature and delayed exposure between 4 and 21 days, and 2) the association between COVID-19 and exposure to for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), accounting for relative humidity, temperature and mobility. We found that an RMI of 45.28% results in 1212 cases (95% CI: 1189 to 1235) and 44 deaths (95% CI: 40 to 47). Increasing the isolation from 45.28% to 50% would avoid 438 cases and 21 deaths. Also, we found that an increment of 10 μg⋅m-³ of PM2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 (95% CI: 1.021 to 1.274) for cases and 1.086 (95% CI: 1.008 to 1.170) for deaths, while O3 produces a relative risk of 1.075 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.150) for cases and 1.063 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.124) for deaths, respectively. We compared our results with observations and literature review, finding well agreement. Policymakers can use such mobility indices as tools to control social distance activities. Spatial distancing is an important factor to control COVID-19, however, measuring face-mask usage would enhance the understanding the pandemic dynamic. Small increments of air pollution result in an increased number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Edmilson Dias de Freitas
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Karl Ropkins
- Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Harvard Data Science Initiative, Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Amanda Rehbein
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
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Nogueira T, Kamigauti LY, Pereira GM, Gavidia-Calderón ME, Ibarra-Espinosa S, Oliveira GLD, Miranda RMD, Vasconcellos PDC, Freitas EDD, Andrade MDF. Evolution of Vehicle Emission Factors in a Megacity Affected by Extensive Biofuel Use: Results of Tunnel Measurements in São Paulo, Brazil. Environ Sci Technol 2021; 55:6677-6687. [PMID: 33939403 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c01006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Since 2001, four emission measurement campaigns have been conducted in multiple traffic tunnels in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil, an area with a fleet of more than 7 million vehicles running on fuels with high biofuel contents: gasoline + ethanol for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and diesel + biodiesel for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Emission factors for LDVs and HDVs were calculated using a carbon balance method, the pollutants considered including nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide, as well as carbon dioxide and ethanol. From 2001 to 2018, fleet-average emission factors for LDVs and HDVs, respectively, were found to decrease by 4.9 and 5.1% per year for CO and by 5.5 and 4.2% per year for NOx. These reductions demonstrate that regulations for vehicle emissions adopted in Brazil in the last 30 years improved air quality in the megacity of São Paulo significantly, albeit with a clear delay. These findings, especially those for CO, indicate that official emission inventories underestimate vehicle emissions. Here, we demonstrated that the adoption of emission factors calculated under real-world conditions can dramatically improve air quality modeling in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thiago Nogueira
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Leonardo Yoshiaki Kamigauti
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Guilherme Martins Pereira
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
- Departamento de Química Fundamental, Instituto de Química, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-000, Brazil
| | - Mario E Gavidia-Calderón
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Guilherme Librete de Oliveira
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
- Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-010, Brazil
| | - Regina Maura de Miranda
- Escola de Artes, Ciências e Humanidades, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 03828-000, Brazil
| | | | - Edmilson Dias de Freitas
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Maria de Fatima Andrade
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
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Bolaño-Ortiz TR, Camargo-Caicedo Y, Puliafito SE, Ruggeri MF, Bolaño-Diaz S, Pascual-Flores R, Saturno J, Ibarra-Espinosa S, Mayol-Bracero OL, Torres-Delgado E, Cereceda-Balic F. Spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean region: A look from its economic conditions, climate and air pollution indicators. Environ Res 2020; 191:109938. [PMID: 32858479 PMCID: PMC7361092 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
We have evaluated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region by means of a correlation between climate and air pollution indicators, namely, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, average relative humidity, wind speed, and air pollution indicators PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 with the COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. The study focuses in the following LAC cities: Mexico City (Mexico), Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), San Juan (Puerto Rico), Bogotá (Colombia), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Manaus (Brazil), Lima (Perú), Santiago (Chile), São Paulo (Brazil) and Buenos Aires (Argentina). The results show that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the spread of COVID-19 in LAC. Additionally, humidity, wind speed and rainfall showed a significant relationship with daily cases, total cases and mortality for various cities. Income inequality and poverty levels were also considered as a variable for qualitative analysis. Our findings suggest that and income inequality and poverty levels in the cities analyzed were related to the spread of COVID-19 positive and negative, respectively. These results might help decision-makers to design future strategies to tackle the spread of COVID-19 in LAC and around the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomás R Bolaño-Ortiz
- Mendoza Regional Faculty - National Technological University (FRM-UTN), 273 Coronel Rodríguez St., 5500, Mendoza, Argentina; National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina.
| | - Yiniva Camargo-Caicedo
- Environmental Systems Modeling Research Group (GIMSA), University of Magdalena, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - Salvador Enrique Puliafito
- Mendoza Regional Faculty - National Technological University (FRM-UTN), 273 Coronel Rodríguez St., 5500, Mendoza, Argentina; National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina
| | - María Florencia Ruggeri
- Centre for Environmental Technologies (CETAM), Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María (UTFSM), Av. España 1680, Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Sindy Bolaño-Diaz
- Environmental Systems Modeling Research Group (GIMSA), University of Magdalena, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - Romina Pascual-Flores
- Mendoza Regional Faculty - National Technological University (FRM-UTN), 273 Coronel Rodríguez St., 5500, Mendoza, Argentina; National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina
| | | | | | - Olga L Mayol-Bracero
- Department of Environmental Science, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR, USA
| | - Elvis Torres-Delgado
- Department of Environmental Science, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR, USA
| | - Francisco Cereceda-Balic
- Centre for Environmental Technologies (CETAM), Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María (UTFSM), Av. España 1680, Valparaíso, Chile; Department of Chemistry, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María (UTFSM), Av. España 1680, Valparaíso, Chile
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Ibarra-Espinosa S, Ynoue R, Giannotti M, Ropkins K, de Freitas ED. Generating traffic flow and speed regional model data using internet GPS vehicle records. MethodsX 2019; 6:2065-2075. [PMID: 31667105 PMCID: PMC6812335 DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2019.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2019] [Accepted: 08/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Nowadays, many smart-phones and vehicles are equipped with Global Position System (GPS) for tracking and navigation purposes, providing an opportunity to derive highly representative local vehicular flow and estimate vehicular emissions information. Here, we report and discuss methods used to handle large volumes of such activity data, namely 124 million GPS recordings from the web page Maplink.com.br, extract high spatial resolution vehicular flow information for a vast area in South-east Brazil, and correct for bias using traffic counts observations for the same area. The method consists in filter speed and accelerations, assign buffers to the road network, aggregate speed by street, fill missing number of lanes, generate traffic flow. Methods presented here were used to inform traffic-related air quality modelling and used as part of local air pollution management activities but are also amenable to any work that would be enhanced by more locally representative or time-resolved inputs for traffic flow, e.g. traffic network management, and demand modelling. 124 million GPS observations from electronic devices were used to generate traffic flow. Spatial bias was investigated and accounted for using independent local traffic count data. Traffic count rescaled GPS traffic flow provide a robust description of spatial and quantitative traffic patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil.,Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
| | - Rita Ynoue
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Mariana Giannotti
- Laboratory of Geoprocessing, Escola Politécnica (Poli), Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Karl Ropkins
- Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Edmilson Dias de Freitas
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
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