Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of probiotic yogurt on gestational diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Gestational diabetes mellitus is one of the important complications of pregnancy and is related to many adverse events. There is evidence that probiotics can be considered a preventive and therapeutic option in gestational diabetes mellitus. In this meta-analysis, we have focused on the effect of probiotic yogurt as a natural product on gestational diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was done through PUBMED/Medline, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, and EBSCO up to December 2022. This meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines for the evaluation of the effect of probiotic yogurt on gestational diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

Four manuscripts with a total of 533 participants were included in this meta-analysis. There was a statistically significant association between probiotic yogurt and reduced risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (Pooled OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.19-0.62; I² = 0.0%). Furthermore, the mean reduction in the fasting plasma glucose was significantly higher in the probiotic yogurt groups (Hedges' g = -0.37; 95% CI -0.68 to -0.05; I² = 0.0%).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggests that probiotic yogurt lowers the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus. Also, it is related to a significant reduction in fasting plasma glucose. These findings promise that probiotic yogurt could be regarded as a safe and low-cost therapy and preventive option for gestational diabetes mellitus. However, more randomized controlled trials with different doses and more probiotic strains with varying systems of delivery are warranted.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Zinc supplementation and COVID-19 mortality: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the agent of a pneumonia outbreak and was called 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). COVID-19 emerged in December 2019 and now considered a pandemic. Zinc supplementation can reduce mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. This study aimed at meta-analysis of the results of related studies and evaluate the effect of zinc supplementation on COVID-19 mortality.

METHODS

A systematic search has conducted for manuscripts through PUBMED/Medline and Google Scholar (Cochrane guideline has considered it as the gray literature) up to September 2021. This meta-analysis followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) Guideline for evaluation of the effect zinc supplementation on COVID-19 mortality. Based on the heterogeneity a fixed-effect or random-effect model, the OR and 95% CI were used to assess the combined risk.

RESULTS

After assessment, five studies with 1506 participants in case and control groups were included in meta-analysis. The OR for one study was not estimable, and the pool OR was estimated for other studies with 1398 participants. The meta-analysis showed that zinc supplementation in cases led to a significant lower risk of mortality when it was compared with the control group; pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.57 [0.43, 0.77] (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis has suggested that zinc supplementation is associated with a lower mortality rate in COVID-19 patients. Zinc supplementation could be considered as a simple way and cost benefit approach for reduction of mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Composition of the Gut Microbiome in Adolescent Girls With Overweight and Obesity

Objectives

The animal and human studies suggest that obesity can change the gut microbiome. However, a few studies evaluate these in adolescents. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the composition of the gut microbiome in adolescent girls with overweight and obesity.

Methods

Weight of adolescents has assessed with WHO growth charts for girls 2–18 years. DNA extraction has done for 50 stool samples of adolescent girls and TaqMan real-time PCR assays was used for the quantitation of gut microbiome in the feces.

Results

In adolescent girls with overweight and obesity Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes were 63% and 61% lower when compared with participants with normal weight. There was not a significant difference for Bifidobacterium in two groups of adolescents. Furthermore, Lactobacillus and Enterococcus were 72% and 88% lower in overweight and obese adolescents.

Conclusions

These results suggest that obesity and overweight can change the composition of the gut microbiome in adolescents. Changes in Enterococcus, Lactobacillus, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes might be important factors for adolescent obesity and further clinical trials need to clarify this complex relationship.

Funding Sources

Mashhad University of Medical Sciences.

Airborne transmission of COVID-19 and the role of face mask to prevent it: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and aims

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), belonging to the Coronaviridae family, is agent of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, Hubei province of China, in early December 2019 and is now considered a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the airborne transmission of COVID-19 and the role of face mask to prevent it.

Methods

A systematic search for English-language literature was done via PUBMED/Medline and Google Scholar up to October 2020. There was two search strategy; for airborne transmission and the role of face mask for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Based on a fixed and random effects model, the RR and 95% CI were used to evaluate the combined risk. This meta-analysis followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) Guidelines.

Results

After eligibility assessment, four articles with a total of 7688 participants were included in this meta-analysis. The result of this meta-analysis has shown significant reduction in infection with face mask use; the pooled RR (95%CI) was 0.12 [0.06, 0.27] (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests that there is association between face mask use and reduction of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 spreads primarily with contact routes and respiratory droplets, but its transmissibility has many mysteries yet and there is controversy about airborne transmission of COVID-19.

The effects of high doses of vitamin D on the composition of the gut microbiome of adolescent girls

BACKGROUND

Animal studies suggest that vitamin D can change the gut microbiome. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a high dose supplementation of vitamin D on the composition of the gut microbiome.

METHODS

After DNA extraction, TaqMan assays were used for the quantitation of selected microbiome in the feces of 50 adolescent girls before and after vitamin D supplementation.

RESULTS

The expression fold changes for Enterococcus, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were; 1.05, 1.20, 0.76, 0.28 and 1.50 respectively. Bacteroidetes and Lactobacillus fell by 72% (P < 0.0001) and 24% (P = 0.006) respectively, whilst Firmicutes and Bifidobacterium were increased by 1.5 (P < 0.0001), 1.2 (P < 0.0001) fold after supplementation.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested that a high dose supplementation of vitamin D alter the human gut microbiome composition. Future studies are required for a better understanding of the mechanisms by which vitamin D affects the gut microbiome.

The relationship between short stature and menstrual pattern in a large cohort of Iranian girls

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between stature and menstrual pattern. Nine hundred and seventy six girls were selected from regions within two cities in north-eastern Iran in 2015. They were assessed with respect to: their stature and menstrual pattern, age of menstruation, severity of dysmenorrhoea, duration of their menstrual cycle and flow. 841 girls had experienced menarche. 10.5% had a short stature. There were significant differences in age, height, weight and body mass index between those who had experienced their first menstrual cycle and others (p < .001). There were weak and negative correlation between age of menarche and height percentiles (r  =  -0.12, p < .001). Premenstrual syndrome, duration of menstruation cycle and bleeding period did not differ between these two groups (p > .05). We found that dysmenorrhoea was significantly influenced by height. Although the mean age at menarche was statistically significant among different statures, the range was narrow (12.2-12.7). Further studies considering environmental factors, including socioeconomic status and nutrition concurrently, are also required.Impact statementWhat is already known on this subject? Various menstrual characteristics, including age of menarche, severity of dysmenorrhoea and duration of menstrual period may be associated with height. But, there have been few studies on the relationship between short stature and its impact on health status and menstrual patterns in adolescents.What do the results of this study add? There were significant differences in age, height, weight and body mass index between adolescent girls who had experienced their first menstrual cycle, and others. There were weak, negative, significant correlations between age of menarche and height percentiles. Dysmenorrhoea was significantly influenced by height.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Life style modification and nutritional interventions that optimise the height of girls may resolve their menstrual problems and dysmenorrhoea.

Vitamin D, the gut microbiome and inflammatory bowel disease

Vitamin D has an important role in bone metabolism but recently has been recognized as an immunoregulator, and this has led to investigations on the effect of Vitamin D supplementation in various autoimmune diseases and its anti-inflammatory effects. There is some evidence that Vitamin D can regulate gastrointestinal inflammation. In addition, previous studies have shown that Vitamin D can affect the gut microbiome. The aim of this review is to evaluate the effect of Vitamin D on inflammatory processes, especially its relation to the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and gut microbiome. There is some evidence that Vitamin D can regulate gastrointestinal inflammation, with epidemiological studies showing that individuals with higher serum Vitamin D have a lower incidence of IBD, particularly Crohn's disease. Vitamin D changes transcription of cathelicidin and DEFB4 (defensin, beta 4) that can affect the gut microbiome. Several cell types of the immune system express Vitamin D receptor, and hence the use of Vitamin D in immune regulation has some potential. Furthermore, Vitamin D deficiency leads to dysbiosis of gut microbiome and reported to cause severe colitis. Vitamin D supplementation is low cost and available and can be a therapeutic option.

There is an association between serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) concentrations and depression score in adolescent girls

BACKGROUND

Whilst there is evidence of an association between depression and inflammation in adults, there is limited data on this in adolescents particularly in non-westernized populations. ‎ The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the association between serum hs-CRP level and depression ‎score in adolescent girls living in northwestern Iran.

METHOD

Serum hs-CRP was measured in 563 adolescent girls aged 12-18 years. Depression score was assessed using the Beck's depression inventory II (BDI-II).‎ RESULTS: Serum hs-CRP was 0.61 (0.30-0.88) mg/L [median (interquartile range)] in the non-depressed group, 0.97 (0.50-1.82) mg/L in the group with a mild depression score, 1.04 (0.57-1.60) mg/L in those with a moderate depression score, and 0.84 (0.45-2.64) mg/L in girls with severe depression (Kruskal-Wallis test, P<0.001). It has shown that hs-CRP is significantly higher in depressed groups. Multinomial logistic regression analysis, controlling for age, BMI, waist circumference, social class, alcohol consumption, smoking or being passive smoker and recent infections, showed that depression scores were positively associated with serum hs-CRP level (OR=1.93, P<0.001). Using a linear model after adjustment, B (the unstandardized beta) of hs-CRP according to the depression score was 1.43, P<0.001.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant association between serum hs-CRP and depression score in adolescent girls. The cross sectional study design does not allow us to conclude that there is a direct relationship between inflammation and depression, and this would need to be tested in an intervention study.

Genetic and epigenetic factors influencing vitamin D status

The global prevalence of vitamin D deficiency appears to be increasing, and the impact of this on human health is important because of the association of vitamin D insufficiency with increased risk of osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease and some cancers. There are few studies on the genetic factors that can influence vitamin D levels. In particular, the data from twin and family-based studies have reported that circulating vitamin D concentrations are partially determined by genetic factors. Moreover, it has been shown that genetic variants (e.g., mutation) and alteration (e.g., deletion, amplification, inversion) in genes involved in the metabolism, catabolism, transport, or binding of vitamin D to it receptor, might affect vitamin D level. However, the underlying genetic determinants of plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D] concentrations remain to be elucidated. Furthermore, the association between epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and vitamin D level has now been reported in several studies. The aim of current review was to provide an overview of the possible value of loci associated to vitamin D metabolism, catabolism, and transport as well epigenetic modification and environmental factors influencing vitamin D status.

High Dose Supplementation of Vitamin D Affects Measures of Systemic Inflammation: Reductions in High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Level and Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) Distribution

The prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency is increasing worldwide, which has be shown to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), autoimmune disease, and metabolic syndrome. These conditions are also associated with a heightened state of inflammation. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on serum C-Reactive Protein (CRP) level and Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) distribution in a large cohort of adolescent girls. A total of 580 adolescent girls were recruited follow by evaluation of CRP and hematological parameters before and after supplementation with vitamin D supplements as 9 of 50000 IU cholecalciferol capsules for 9 weeks taken at weekly intervals. At baseline, serum hs-CRP level was 0.9 (95%CI: 0.5-1.8), while this value after intervention was reduced to 0.8 (95%CI: 0.3-1.6; P = 0.007). Similar results were also detected for NLR (e.g., NLR level was 1.66 ± 0.72 and 1.53 ± 0.67, P = 0.002, before and after therapy with compliance rate of >95.2%). Moreover, we found an association between hs-CRP and BMI, triglyceride, white blood cell count, and lymphocytes. Interestingly we observed a significant reduction in neutrophil count and CRP level after high dose vitamin D supplementation. Our findings showed that the high dose supplementation of vitamin D affects measures of systemic inflammation: reductions in High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein level and Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) distribution. J. Cell. Biochem. 118: 4317-4322, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.