Racial implications of time to surgery in disparities in thyroid cancer survival

INTRODUCTION

The influence of time to surgery on racial/ethnic disparities in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) survival remains unstudied.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Cancer Database (2004-2017) was queried for patients with localized PTC. Survival data was compared by time to surgery, patient demographics, and multivariable Cox regression was performed.

RESULTS

Of 126,708 patients included, 5% were Black, 10% Hispanic. Of all patients, 85% had no comorbidities. Non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients had a shorter median time to surgery than Black and Hispanic patients (36 vs. 43 vs. 42 days, respectively p ​< ​0.001). In multivariable analysis, longer time to surgery (>90 days vs ​< ​30 days) and Black race vs NHW, were associated with worse survival (HR: 1.56, (95%CI, 1.43-1.70), p ​< ​0.001 and HR: 1.21, (1.08-1.36), p ​= ​0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Delaying surgery for thyroid cancer is associated with worse survival. However, independent of time to surgery and other confounders, there remains a disparity as black patients have poorer outcomes.

Tofacitinib use in ulcerative colitis: An expert consensus for day-to-day clinical practice

Rising number of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) cases in developing countries necessitate clear guidance for clinicians for the appropriate use of advanced therapies. An expert consensus document was generated to guide the usage of tofacitinib, a Janus kinase inhibitor, in ulcerative colitis. Tofacitinib is a useful agent for the induction and maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis. It can be used in the setting of biological failure or even steroid-dependent and thiopurine refractory disease. Typically, the induction dose is 10 mg BD orally. Usually, clinical response is evident within eight weeks of therapy. In those with clinical response, the dose can be reduced from 10 mg BD to 5 mg BD. Tofacitinib should be avoided or used cautiously in the elderly, patients with cardiovascular co-morbidity, uncontrolled cardiac risk factors, previous thrombotic episodes and those at high risk for venous thrombosis or previous malignancy. Baseline evaluation should include testing for and management of hepatitis B infection and latent tuberculosis. Where feasible, it is prudent to ensure complete adult vaccination, including Herpes zoster, before starting tofacitinib. The use of tofacitinib may be associated with an increased risk of infections such as herpes zoster and tuberculosis reactivation. Maternal exposure to tofacitinib should be avoided during pre-conception, pregnancy, and lactation. There is emerging evidence of tofacitinib in acute severe colitis, although the exact positioning (first-line with steroids or second-line) is uncertain.

Updates to the modern diagnosis of GERD: Lyon consensus 2.0

The Lyon Consensus provides conclusive criteria for and against the diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and adjunctive metrics that consolidate or refute GERD diagnosis when primary criteria are borderline or inconclusive. An international core and working group was assembled to evaluate research since publication of the original Lyon Consensus, and to vote on statements collaboratively developed to update criteria. The Lyon Consensus 2.0 provides a modern definition of actionable GERD, where evidence from oesophageal testing supports revising, escalating or personalising GERD management for the symptomatic patient. Symptoms that have a high versus low likelihood of relationship to reflux episodes are described. Unproven versus proven GERD define diagnostic strategies and testing options. Patients with no prior GERD evidence (unproven GERD) are studied using prolonged wireless pH monitoring or catheter-based pH or pH-monitoring off antisecretory medication, while patients with conclusive GERD evidence (proven GERD) and persisting symptoms are evaluated using pH-impedance monitoring while on optimised antisecretory therapy. The major changes from the original Lyon Consensus criteria include establishment of Los Angeles grade B oesophagitis as conclusive GERD evidence, description of metrics and thresholds to be used with prolonged wireless pH monitoring, and inclusion of parameters useful in diagnosis of refractory GERD when testing is performed on antisecretory therapy in proven GERD. Criteria that have not performed well in the diagnosis of actionable GERD have been retired. Personalisation of investigation and management to each patient's unique presentation will optimise GERD diagnosis and management.

Guidelines on optimizing the use of proton pump inhibitors: PPI stewardship

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) have been available for over three decades and are among the most commonly prescribed medications. They are effective in treating a variety of gastric acid-related disorders. They are freely available and based on current evidence, use of PPIs for inappropriate indications and duration appears to be common. Over the years, concerns have been raised on the safety of PPIs as they have been associated with several adverse effects. Hence, there is a need for PPI stewardship to promote the use of PPIs for appropriate indication and duration. With this objective, the Indian Society of Gastroenterology has formulated guidelines on the rational use of PPIs. The guidelines were developed using a modified Delphi process. This paper presents these guidelines in detail, including the statements, review of literature, level of evidence and recommendations. This would help the clinicians in optimizing the use of PPIs in their practice and promote PPI stewardship.

Hub and spoke framework for study of surgical centralization within United States health systems

BACKGROUND

Hospital consolidation into health systems has mixed effects on surgical quality, potentially related to degree of surgical centralization at high-volume (hub) sites. We developed a novel measure of centralization and evaluated a hub and spoke framework.

METHODS

Surgical centralization within health systems was measured using hospital surgical volumes (American Hospital Association) and health system data (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality). Hub and spoke hospitals were compared using mixed effects logistic regression and system characteristics associated with surgical centralization were identified using a linear model.

RESULTS

Within 382 health systems containing 3022 hospitals, system hubs perform 63% of cases (IQR 40-84%). Hubs are larger, in metropolitan and urban areas, and more often academically affiliated. Degree of surgical centralization varies ten-fold. Larger, multistate, and investor-owned systems are less centralized. Adjusting for these factors, there is less centralization among teaching systems (p ​< ​0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A hub-spoke framework applies to most health systems but centralization varies significantly. Future studies of health system surgical care should assess the contributions of surgical centralization and teaching status on differential quality.

DAPS score - a novel score for prediction of significant fibrosis in incidentally detected asymptomatic hepatitis B subjects

Aim of the study

Significant fibrosis is an indication for treatment in hepatitis B patients with normal transaminase levels. The present study was aimed at analyzing the factors associated with significant fibrosis in incidentally detected asymptomatic hepatitis B subjects (IDAHS) and developing a model for fibrosis prediction for use in low-resource settings.

Material and methods

This is a single-center retrospective analysis of data on IDAHS who had undergone FibroScan. The variables associated with significant fibrosis in the derivation cohort were subjected to multivariate analysis by logistic regression. The model was applied to the validation cohort for fibrosis prediction.

Results

A total of 299 patients (mean age: 42.6 years, males: 63.2%) were included in the model derivation. Significant fibrosis was found in 27.4% (82/299) of the patients and 16.8% (30/178) of those with normal transaminase. On multivariate analysis, age, lower platelet count, and presence of diabetes were associated with fibrosis. Serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGPT) was included in the model as it was nearing towards in multivariate analysis. The DAPS (diabetes, age, platelet count, SGPT) score was proposed with equal weightage to each variable. Based on the cumulative score, patients were categorized as having low risk (DAPS score 0-2) or high risk (DAPS score 3-4). The specificity of the model in derivation and validation cohorts was 98.2% and 97.6%, respectively, while the accuracy was 83.6% and 80%, respectively.

Conclusions

Approximately 17% of IDAHS with normal transaminase have significant fibrosis. The DAPS score can be used easily as a bedside tool for assessment of significant fibrosis in IDAHS with excellent specificity.

Plugged percutaneous liver biopsy using Tru-cut needle and coils: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Plugged percutaneous liver biopsy, though has been in use for many years, is being used more frequently in patients in whom percutaneous liver biopsy is contraindicated due to proven or probable bleeding tendencies. We report our experience with this procedure, its indications, efficacy, and complications in Indian population over 2 years.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 127 consecutive patients who had undergone plug liver biopsy from April 2017 to May 2019 was done from the database maintained in our department. The indications, technical success, complications, and impact of histological diagnosis on the management of those patients were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 127 biopsies were performed of which 68 were males and 59 were females, aged between 7 and 73 years. No procedures were abandoned; however, 13 cases needed ultrasonography (USG) guidance because of small size of the liver or presence of right perihepatic fluid. Out of 127 biopsies, none of the samples was inadequate and yielded adequate tissue for histopathological diagnosis. Seven patients required repeat study only because underlying liver disease was suspected clinically and the previous biopsy report had turned out to be normal. Histopathological examination in our study showed autoimmune hepatitis in 61, cirrhotic changes either hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) related in 40, veno-occlusive disease in 3, cholestatic disease in 2, and Wilson's disease in 2 patients. The remaining 19 were normal. Complications occurred in 3 patients - arterioportal fistula, pneumothorax, and inadequate coiling causing mild hemoperitoneum.

CONCLUSION

Percutaneous liver biopsy followed by plugging of the tract with coils is a safe, easy, and effective method in patients with underlying bleeding tendencies, minimal ascites, and small liver.

Intra- and inter-observer agreement in the classification of dyssynergic defecation on high-resolution anorectal manometry using water-perfusion system

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dyssynergic defecation (DD) classified on anorectal manometry is based on variations in anal sphincter pressures and rectal pressure generated during bearing down. There is a paucity of data on intra- and inter-observer agreement in the classification of DD on high-resolution anorectal manometry (HRAM) using a water-perfusion system.

METHODS

This cross-sectional observational study was conducted between June 2014 and May 2016 on 70 adult patients with DD. Observer 1 did the baseline analysis and reanalyzed the readings at least 6 months later, blinded to the initial analysis results (intra-observer variability). Four other blinded observers (5-25 years in anorectal manometry and minimum 5 years of experience in HRAM) then individually analyzed the manometry data (inter-observer variability).

RESULTS

Intra-observer agreement was excellent (kappa 0.862) for classifying DD. Agreement between the six observations (i.e. two from observer 1 and four from independent observers) was also good (kappa 0.632). The highest agreement was for type 4 DD (kappa 0.738), followed by type 1 (0.680), type 2 (0.664), and type 3 (0.537). Cronbach's alpha value was 0.93, suggesting excellent internal consistency.

CONCLUSION

The diagnosis of the types of DD on anorectal manometry using a water-perfusion system has excellent intra-observer and good inter-observer agreement .

Kyoto international consensus report on anatomy, pathophysiology and clinical significance of the gastro-oesophageal junction

OBJECTIVE

An international meeting was organised to develop consensus on (1) the landmarks to define the gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ), (2) the occurrence and pathophysiological significance of the cardiac gland, (3) the definition of the gastro-oesophageal junctional zone (GOJZ) and (4) the causes of inflammation, metaplasia and neoplasia occurring in the GOJZ.

DESIGN

Clinical questions relevant to the afore-mentioned major issues were drafted for which expert panels formulated relevant statements and textural explanations.A Delphi method using an anonymous system was employed to develop the consensus, the level of which was predefined as ≥80% of agreement. Two rounds of voting and amendments were completed before the meeting at which clinical questions and consensus were finalised.

RESULTS

Twenty eight clinical questions and statements were finalised after extensive amendments. Critical consensus was achieved: (1) definition for the GOJ, (2) definition of the GOJZ spanning 1 cm proximal and distal to the GOJ as defined by the end of palisade vessels was accepted based on the anatomical distribution of cardiac type gland, (3) chemical and bacterial (Helicobacter pylori) factors as the primary causes of inflammation, metaplasia and neoplasia occurring in the GOJZ, (4) a new definition of Barrett's oesophagus (BO).

CONCLUSIONS

This international consensus on the new definitions of BO, GOJ and the GOJZ will be instrumental in future studies aiming to resolve many issues on this important anatomic area and hopefully will lead to better classification and management of the diseases surrounding the GOJ.

Gender Differences in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has currently emerged as the most common liver disorder in both developed and developing countries. It has been observed that NAFLD exhibits sexual dimorphism, and there is limited understanding on the sex differences in adults with NAFLD. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease shows marked differences in prevalence and severity with regards to gender. There are considerable biological disparities between males and females attributed to differences in the chromosomal makeup and sex hormone levels, distinct from the gender differences resulting from the sociocultural influences that lead to differences in lifestyle, which have a significant impact on the pathogenesis of this complex disorder. A multitude of factors contributes to the gender disparities seen and need to be researched in-depth to better understand the mechanisms behind them and the therapeutic measures that can be taken. In this article, we will review the gender disparities seen in NAFLD, as well as recent studies highlighting certain gender-specific factors contributing to its varying prevalence and severity.

HOW TO CITE THIS ARTICLE

Nagral A, Bangar M, Menezes S, et al. Gender Differences in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2022;12(Suppl 1):S19-S25.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Gonadal dysfunction in male patients with Budd Chiari syndrome and its reversibility with treatment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Budd Chiari syndrome (BCS) commonly affects adolescents and adults. With improved survival, important quality-of-life parameters such as sexual life and fertility become more relevant. This study was aimed to assess the gonadal function in male patients with BCS and the effect of treatment on gonadal function.

METHODS

Thirty male patients with newly diagnosed BCS were prospectively assessed for the presence of gonadal dysfunction. Erectile function was assessed using standardized International Index of Erectile Function questionnaire (IIEF). Follicular stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), estradiol, total testosterone (TT), calculated free testosterone (cFT), calculated bioavailable testosterone (cBT), sperm count, and sperm motility were compared at baseline and at 6 months of treatment for the assessment of gonadal function.

RESULTS

Sixteen (53.3%) out of 30 patients were sexually active at the time of study and 5/16 (31%) had erectile dysfunction. Hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (HH) was the most common pattern seen in 50% cases followed by hypergonadotropic hypogonadism (HyH) in 23% cases. 27% patients had eugonadism. At 6 months of treatment, 60% of patients in HH group became eugonadal as compared to only 14% in HyH group. Proportion of patients with erectile dysfunction reduced (5/16 vs 1/16) after 6 months of therapy. The improvement in sperm count and sperm motility was not significant.

CONCLUSION

Gonadal dysfunction is common in male patients with BCS. HH remains the most common type of hypogonadism BCS and the type which improves significantly after treatment.

AB0307 MERKEL CELL CARCINOMA RECURRENCE RISK IS LOWER IN PATIENTS WITH AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE THAN IN THOSE WITH OTHER TYPES OF IMMUNE SUPPRESSION

Background

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is twice as likely to recur in immunosuppressed (IS) patients as in immunocompetent (IC) patients. Iatrogenic IS due to autoimmune disease (AD) may influence prognosis differently than intrinsic IS such as due to hematologic malignancy. Moreover, modification of IS medication may improve prognosis.

Objectives

Our objective was to evaluate the risk of MCC recurrence among patients with AD diseases relative to other immunosuppressive conditions among 762 MCC patients from an Institutional review board-approved registry.

Methods

We categorized patients into 3 groups: IS due to AD (ISAD); IS from other causes (lSnon-AD) such as hematologic malignancy, solid organ transplant, human immunodeficiency virus; or immune competent (n=31, 70, and 661 respectively). ISAD patients were subcategorized into rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (ADRA, n=13) vs. AD except for RA (ADnon-RA, n=18). Descriptive statistics were used to compare the features of different characteristics in each group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed to assess the cumulative incidence of recurrence in different patient groups. In order to estimate the associations between baseline patient characteristics and the risk of MCC recurrence, Fine and Gray regression models were used with death as a competing risk for recurrence. The multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, and extent of MCC at initial presentation.

Results

Patients with ISAD had lower stage disease (local disease: 58% vs. 36%, p = 0.003) and smaller primary tumors than ISnon-AD (<= 2 cm: 83% vs. 57%, p=0.023). After adjusting for age, sex, and stage, ISAD patients (ADRA and ADnon-RA) overall had a 54% higher recurrence rate (hazard ratio (HR): 1.54, p=0.21) than IC patients. In comparison, ISnon-AD group had a 165% higher recurrence rate (HR: 2.65, p<0.001) than IC patients (Figure 1). When considered separately, ADRA pts appeared to have a similar recurrence rate as IC pts (HR: 1.19, p=0.76) while ADnon-RA pts had a higher recurrence rate (HR: 1.83, p=0.16) relative to IC pts. At the time of MCC diagnosis, 80% (n=24) of AD pts were on IS medication including conventional disease modifying drugs, biologics, or oral steroids. After MCC diagnosis, 22% (5 patients) stopped all immunosuppressive medications. Among patients on biologics, 89% (8/9 pts) elected to stop the drug. Eleven pts with AD experienced recurrences. Our study was underpowered to demonstrate associations regarding use of a particular immunosuppressive medication and MCC recurrence.

Figure 1.

Cumulative incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence in different patient groups.

AD = autoimmune disease; IS = immunosuppressed; RA = rheumatoid arthritis.There were 4/13, 8/18, 49/70, and 217/661 recurrences in the RA, ADnon-RA, other immunosuppressed, and not chronically immunosuppressed groups, respectively. Follow-up time ranged from 26 days to 16 years, with median follow-up times of 4.7 years, 1.6 years, 1.6 years, and 3.9 years for the RA, ADnon-RA, other immunosuppressed and not chronically immunosuppressed groups, respectively.

Conclusion

In this cohort, pts with AD appeared to have a better prognosis than intrinsic IS, with RA conferring very little risk above that for immune competent pts.

Acknowledgements

I have no acknowledgements to declare.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Achalasia

Achalasia is a rare disorder of the oesophageal smooth muscle characterized by impaired relaxation of the lower oesophageal sphincter (LES) and absent or spastic contractions in the oesophageal body. The key pathophysiological mechanism is loss of inhibitory nerve function that probably results from an autoimmune attack targeting oesophageal myenteric nerves through cell-mediated and, possibly, antibody-mediated mechanisms. Achalasia incidence and prevalence increase with age, but the disorder can affect all ages and both sexes. Cardinal symptoms consist of dysphagia, regurgitation, chest pain and weight loss. Several years can pass between symptom onset and an achalasia diagnosis. Evaluation starts with endoscopy to rule out structural causes, followed by high-resolution manometry and/or barium radiography. Functional lumen imaging probe can provide complementary evidence. Achalasia subtypes have management and prognostic implications. Although symptom questionnaires are not useful for diagnosis, the Eckardt score is a simple symptom scoring scale that helps to quantify symptom response to therapy. Oral pharmacotherapy is not particularly effective. Botulinum toxin injection into the LES can temporize symptoms and function as a bridge to definitive therapy. Pneumatic dilation, per-oral endoscopic myotomy and laparoscopic Heller myotomy can provide durable symptom benefit. End-stage achalasia with a dilated, non-functioning oesophagus may require oesophagectomy or enteral feeding into the stomach. Long-term complications can, rarely, include oesophageal cancer, but surveillance recommendations have not been established.

Identification of other Cellular Receptors for Edema Factor of Bacillus anthracis by Independent Inhibition of Protective Antigen Evidenced by Inhibition of Embryo Growth and Angiogenesis

Edema factor (EF) is one of the major secretory proteins of anthrax bacteria along with protective antigen (PA) and lethal factor (LF). Edema factor is a calmodulin-and calcium-dependent adenylate cyclase that increases intracellular levels of cAMP. Intracellular trafficking of EF occurs through PA by binding to ATR/CMG2 receptors, which are also involved in other physiological functions of cells. cAMP is a secondary messenger which activates multiple signaling cascades involved in the cytokinetics of actin molecules and cell junction formation. The present study evaluated the effect of EF on growth and angiogenesis patterns in chicken embryos in the in ovo model. Angiogenesis in the chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of an embryonated chicken egg was decreased and embryo growth was delayed by EF despite the absence of trafficking moiety PA, which is required for transferring the EF molecule inside the cell. Angiogenesis inhibition and embryo growth retardation indicate the use of an alternative receptor by EF to modulate these cellular functions. Additionally, docking was performed between EF as a ligand and hepatocyte growth factor receptor (cMET) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptors, which are mainly involved in growth and angiogenesis. The analysis revealed a very strong binding of EF to cMET receptor (in terms of the number of hydrogen bonds and energy) compared to its ligand hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), which indicates the use of cMET receptor by EF and induction of angiogenesis and embryo growth retardation possibly by competitive inhibition of HGF ligand or receptor-mediated endocytosis.

Avelumab in patients with previously treated metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma (JAVELIN Merkel 200): updated overall survival data after >5 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare, aggressive skin cancer that has a poor prognosis in patients with advanced disease. Avelumab [anti-programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1)] became the first approved treatment for patients with metastatic MCC (mMCC), based on efficacy and safety data observed in the JAVELIN Merkel 200 trial. We report long-term overall survival (OS) data after >5 years of follow-up from the cohort of patients with mMCC whose disease had progressed after one or more prior lines of chemotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In Part A of the single-arm, open-label, phase II JAVELIN Merkel 200 trial, patients with mMCC that had progressed following one or more prior lines of chemotherapy received avelumab 10 mg/kg by intravenous infusion every 2 weeks until confirmed disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, or withdrawal. In this analysis, long-term OS was analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 88 patients were treated with avelumab. At data cut-off (25 September 2020), median follow-up was 65.1 months (range 60.8-74.1 months). One patient (1.1%) remained on treatment, and an additional patient (1.1%) had reinitiated avelumab after previously discontinuing treatment. Median OS was 12.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5-17.1 months], with a 5-year OS rate of 26% (95% CI 17% to 36%). In patients with PD-L1+ versus PD-L1- tumors, median OS was 12.9 months (95% CI 8.7-29.6 months) versus 7.3 months (95% CI 3.4-14.0 months), and the 5-year OS rate was 28% (95% CI 17% to 40%) versus 19% (95% CI 5% to 40%), respectively (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.36-1.25).

CONCLUSION

Avelumab monotherapy resulted in meaningful long-term OS in patients with mMCC whose disease had progressed following chemotherapy. These results further support the role of avelumab as a standard of care for patients with mMCC.

1275 Machine Learning for Outcome Prediction in Epilepsy Surgery: A Systematic Review

Aim

A third of epilepsy patients suffer from medically refractory seizures. In patients eligible for surgical treatment, seizure freedom rates remain variable. Machine learning (ML) utilises large datasets to detect patterns to make predictions. We systematically review studies employing ML models for prediction of outcome following resective epilepsy surgery to evaluate their efficacy, applicability and value in determining surgical candidacy.

Method

MEDLINE, Cochrane and EMBASE databases were searched for literature published between 2010 – 2020 according to PRISMA guidance. Non-refractory epilepsy, non-clinical outcome prediction, or non-human studies were excluded. Clinical and demographic data, ML features, discrimination and prediction accuracy metrics were extracted.

Results

15 studies were included. Median cohort size was 49 (range 16 – 4211). Heterogeneous input data sources were utilised: MRI (n = 10) , electrophysiology (n = 4), PET (n = 2), clinical data (n = 2), and neuropsychological testing (n = 1). The most common ML model used was support vector machines (n = 7). All studies had good discrimination (AUC &gt; 0.70, range: 0.79 [95% CI NR] - 0.94 [95% CI 0.92 – 0.96]), and good prediction accuracy (&gt; 0.70, range: 0.76 [95% CI NR] – 0.95 [95% CI NR]). Limitations included small sample sizes, limited external validation and lack of comparison with clinician-predicted outcomes.

Conclusions

Machine Learning for outcome prediction could enhance clinical decision-making for surgical candidacy in epilepsy, and lead to improved precision medicine delivery. Outcome reporting remains inconsistent, and further work is required to externally validate such models to implement these to large-scale clinical populations.

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Recurrent acute pancreatitis in a Wilson disease patient: an unusual association

Background

Wilson’s disease is a multisystem disorder with predominant clinical symptoms depending on the site of copper deposition in the body. Hepatic presentation is usually seen in the younger age group. And pancreatitis is rarely associated with Wilson’s disease. To the best of our knowledge, recurrent acute pancreatitis as a presenting manifestation in a WD patient has not been mentioned before in the literature.

Case presentation

We report a 17-year-old boy who presented with recurrent acute pancreatitis and subsequently developed deranged liver enzymes and ascites. Work up for the cause of recurrent acute pancreatitis was normal. Low ceruloplasmin (0.07 mg/dL), high 24-h urinary copper excretion (576 μg/day), and dry copper content in the liver (270 μg/g) clinched the diagnosis of Wilson’s disease. The patient was started on a low-copper diet and D-penicillamine therapy resulting in an improvement in symptoms and no further recurrence of pancreatitis.

Conclusion

The possibility of Wilson’s disease should be considered in young patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis, who have a protracted and obscure disease course.

Odderon Exchange from Elastic Scattering Differences between pp and pp[over ¯] Data at 1.96 TeV and from pp Forward Scattering Measurements

We describe an analysis comparing the pp[over ¯] elastic cross section as measured by the D0 Collaboration at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV to that in pp collisions as measured by the TOTEM Collaboration at 2.76, 7, 8, and 13 TeV using a model-independent approach. The TOTEM cross sections, extrapolated to a center-of-mass energy of sqrt[s]=1.96  TeV, are compared with the D0 measurement in the region of the diffractive minimum and the second maximum of the pp cross section. The two data sets disagree at the 3.4σ level and thus provide evidence for the t-channel exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound, also known as the odderon. We combine these results with a TOTEM analysis of the same C-odd exchange based on the total cross section and the ratio of the real to imaginary parts of the forward elastic strong interaction scattering amplitude in pp scattering for which the significance is between 3.4σ and 4.6σ. The combined significance is larger than 5σ and is interpreted as the first observation of the exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound.

Management of Helicobacter pylori infection: The Bhubaneswar Consensus Report of the Indian Society of Gastroenterology

The Indian Society of Gastroenterology (ISG) felt the need to organize a consensus on Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and to update the current management of H. pylori infection; hence, ISG constituted the ISG's Task Force on Helicobacter pylori. The Task Force on H. pylori undertook an exercise to produce consensus statements on H. pylori infection. Twenty-five experts from different parts of India, including gastroenterologists, pathologists, surgeons, epidemiologists, pediatricians, and microbiologists participated in the meeting. The participants were allocated to one of following sections for the meeting: Epidemiology of H. pylori infection in India and H. pylori associated conditions; diagnosis; treatment and retreatment; H. pylori and gastric cancer, and H. pylori prevention/public health. Each group reviewed all published literature on H. pylori infection with special reference to the Indian scenario and prepared appropriate statements on different aspects for voting and consensus development. This consensus, which was produced through a modified Delphi process including two rounds of face-to-face meetings, reflects our current understanding and recommendations for the diagnosis and management of H. pylori infection. These consensus should serve as a reference for not only guiding treatment of H. pylori infection but also to guide future research on the subject.

Chicago Classification update (V4.0): Technical review on diagnostic criteria for ineffective esophageal motility and absent contractility

Esophageal hypomotility disorders manifest with abnormal esophageal body contraction vigor, breaks in peristaltic integrity, or failure of peristalsis in the context of normal lower esophageal sphincter relaxation on esophageal high-resolution manometry (HRM). The Chicago Classification version 4.0 recognizes two hypomotility disorders, ineffective esophageal motility (IEM) and absent contractility, while fragmented peristalsis has been incorporated into the IEM definition. Updated criteria for ineffective swallows consist of weak esophageal body contraction vigor measured using distal contractile integral (DCI, 100-450 mmHg·cm·s), transition zone defects >5 cm measured using a 20 mmHg isobaric contour, or failure of peristalsis (DCI < 100 mmHg·cm·s). More than 70% ineffective swallows and/or ≥50% failed swallows are required for a conclusive diagnosis of IEM. When the diagnosis is inconclusive (50%-70% ineffective swallows), supplementary evidence from multiple rapid swallows (absence of contraction reserve), barium radiography (abnormal bolus clearance), or HRM with impedance (abnormal bolus clearance) could support a diagnosis of IEM. Absent contractility requires 100% failed peristalsis, consistent with previous versions of the classification. Consideration needs to be given for the possibility of achalasia in absent contractility with dysphagia despite normal IRP, and alternate complementary tests (including timed upright barium esophagram and functional lumen imaging probe) are recommended to confirm or refute the presence of achalasia. Future research to quantify esophageal bolus retention on stationary HRM with impedance and to understand contraction vigor thresholds that predict bolus clearance will provide further refinement to diagnostic criteria for esophageal hypomotility disorders in future iterations of the Chicago Classification.

Esophagogastric junction morphology and contractile integral on high-resolution manometry in asymptomatic healthy volunteers: An international multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Esophagogastric junction contractile integral (EGJ-CI) and EGJ morphology are high-resolution manometry (HRM) metrics that assess EGJ barrier function. Normative data standardized across world regions and HRM manufacturers are limited.

METHODS

Our aim was to determine normative EGJ metrics in a large international cohort of healthy volunteers undergoing HRM (Medtronic, Laborie, and Diversatek software) acquired from 16 countries in four world regions. EGJ-CI was calculated by the same two investigators using a distal contractile integral-like measurement across the EGJ for three respiratory cycles and corrected for respiration (mm Hg cm), using manufacturer-specific software tools. EGJ morphology was designated according to Chicago Classification v3.0. Median EGJ-CI values were calculated across age, genders, HRM systems, and regions.

RESULTS

Of 484 studies (28.0 years, 56.2% F, 60.7% Medtronic studies, 26.0% Laborie, and 13.2% Diversatek), EGJ morphology was type 1 in 97.1%. Median EGJ-CI was similar between Medtronic (37.0 mm Hg cm, IQR 23.6-53.7 mm Hg cm) and Diversatek (34.9 mm Hg cm, IQR 22.1-56.1 mm Hg cm, P = 0.87), but was significantly higher using Laborie equipment (56.5 mm Hg cm, IQR 35.0-75.3 mm Hg cm, P < 0.001). 5^th percentile EGJ-CI values ranged from 6.9 to 12.1 mm Hg cm. EGJ-CI values were consistent across world regions, but different between manufacturers even within the same world region (P ≤ 0.001). Within Medtronic studies, EGJ-CI and basal LESP were similar in younger and older individuals (P ≥ 0.3) but higher in women (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

EGJ morphology is predominantly type 1 in healthy adults. EGJ-CI varies widely in health, with significant gender influence, but is consistent within each HRM system. Manufacturer-specific normative values should be utilized for clinical HRM interpretation.

875 Use of Oriented Priors Through Magnetic Tractography (MAGNET) In Deliniation Of Meyer's Loop and Correlation with Visual Field Deficit In Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (TLE) Surgery: A Pilot Study

Introduction

Pre-operative white matter tract reconstruction of the Meyer’s loop (ML) of the optic radiation using diffusion MRI (tractography) can be used to prevent post-operative visual-field deficit. Due to its complex anatomy, precise reconstruction of the ML is challenging and often underestimated. Previous work has suggested that an innovative tractography technique using oriented priors called MAGNET better approximates reconstruction to reported histological prosections. This proof-of-context study validates the MAGNET methodology in predicting visual-field deficits in patients undergoing TLE surgery.

Method

Diffusion MRI datasets were used to reconstruct pre-operative ML using MAGNET in five patients. These were overlaid on post-operative T2-MRI series demonstrating the surgically resected area to measure overlap between resection and reconstructed ML. A correlation with post-operative visual-field defects was established.

Results

There was no evidence of visual field deficit in the cases where there was no overlap between the reconstructed ML and the resected region. In the cases with overlap with reconstructed ML and resection, there was visual deficit found. There was no correlation between proportion of resected ML and visual deficit.

Conclusions

This pilot demonstrates that MAGNET accurately reconstructs ML in pre-surgical TLE cases compared to standard tractography techniques and can be used to augment neurosurgical planning and resection.