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Pugh TAM, Müller C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Folberth C, Olin S, Schmid E, Arneth A. Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12608. [PMID: 27646707 PMCID: PMC5136618 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2016] [Accepted: 07/18/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. Simulations of the impact of future climate change on crop yield vary considerably. Here, the authors use a climate analogue approach to estimate the response of maximum attainable yield to climate change and predict that large shifts in land use and crop choice would be required to meet demand.
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Affiliation(s)
- T A M Pugh
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.,School of Geography, Earth &Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - C Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - J Elliott
- University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
| | - D Deryng
- University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.,Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA
| | - C Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.,Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333 Munich, Germany
| | - S Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - E Schmid
- Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - A Arneth
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Pugh TAM, Müller C, Arneth A, Haverd V, Smith B. Key knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO 2 concentration on the terrestrial carbon sink. J Plant Physiol 2016; 203:3-15. [PMID: 27233774 DOI: 10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2016] [Revised: 04/29/2016] [Accepted: 05/02/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation is expected to increase under the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). Depending on the fate of such additionally fixed carbon, this could lead to an increase in terrestrial carbon storage, and thus a net terrestrial sink of atmospheric carbon. Such a mechanism is generally believed to be the primary global driver behind the observed large net uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the biosphere. Mechanisms driving CO2 uptake in the Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs) used to attribute and project terrestrial carbon sinks, including that from increased [CO2], remain in large parts unchanged since those models were conceived two decades ago. However, there exists a large body of new data and understanding providing an opportunity to update these models, and directing towards important topics for further research. In this review we highlight recent developments in understanding of the effects of elevated [CO2] on photosynthesis, and in particular on the fate of additionally fixed carbon within the plant with its implications for carbon turnover rates, on the regulation of photosynthesis in response to environmental limitations on in-plant carbon sinks, and on emergent ecosystem responses. We recommend possible avenues for model improvement and identify requirements for better data on core processes relevant to the understanding and modelling of the effect of increasing [CO2] on the global terrestrial carbon sink.
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Affiliation(s)
- T A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
| | - C Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - A Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - V Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 3023, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
| | - B Smith
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden
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MacKenzie AR, Langford B, Pugh TAM, Robinson N, Misztal PK, Heard DE, Lee JD, Lewis AC, Jones CE, Hopkins JR, Phillips G, Monks PS, Karunaharan A, Hornsby KE, Nicolas-Perea V, Coe H, Gabey AM, Gallagher MW, Whalley LK, Edwards PM, Evans MJ, Stone D, Ingham T, Commane R, Furneaux KL, McQuaid JB, Nemitz E, Seng YK, Fowler D, Pyle JA, Hewitt CN. The atmospheric chemistry of trace gases and particulate matter emitted by different land uses in Borneo. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2012; 366:3177-95. [PMID: 22006961 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
We report measurements of atmospheric composition over a tropical rainforest and over a nearby oil palm plantation in Sabah, Borneo. The primary vegetation in each of the two landscapes emits very different amounts and kinds of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), resulting in distinctive VOC fingerprints in the atmospheric boundary layer for both landscapes. VOCs over the Borneo rainforest are dominated by isoprene and its oxidation products, with a significant additional contribution from monoterpenes. Rather than consuming the main atmospheric oxidant, OH, these high concentrations of VOCs appear to maintain OH, as has been observed previously over Amazonia. The boundary-layer characteristics and mixing ratios of VOCs observed over the Borneo rainforest are different to those measured previously over Amazonia. Compared with the Bornean rainforest, air over the oil palm plantation contains much more isoprene, monoterpenes are relatively less important, and the flower scent, estragole, is prominent. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides are greater above the agro-industrial oil palm landscape than over the rainforest, and this leads to changes in some secondary pollutant mixing ratios (but not, currently, differences in ozone). Secondary organic aerosol over both landscapes shows a significant contribution from isoprene. Primary biological aerosol dominates the super-micrometre aerosol over the rainforest and is likely to be sensitive to land-use change, since the fungal source of the bioaerosol is closely linked to above-ground biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- A R MacKenzie
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
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Pyle JA, Warwick NJ, Harris NRP, Abas MR, Archibald AT, Ashfold MJ, Ashworth K, Barkley MP, Carver GD, Chance K, Dorsey JR, Fowler D, Gonzi S, Gostlow B, Hewitt CN, Kurosu TP, Lee JD, Langford SB, Mills G, Moller S, MacKenzie AR, Manning AJ, Misztal P, Nadzir MSM, Nemitz E, Newton HM, O'Brien LM, Ong S, Oram D, Palmer PI, Peng LK, Phang SM, Pike R, Pugh TAM, Rahman NA, Robinson AD, Sentian J, Samah AA, Skiba U, Ung HE, Yong SE, Young PJ. The impact of local surface changes in Borneo on atmospheric composition at wider spatial scales: coastal processes, land-use change and air quality. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2012; 366:3210-24. [PMID: 22006963 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
We present results from the OP3 campaign in Sabah during 2008 that allow us to study the impact of local emission changes over Borneo on atmospheric composition at the regional and wider scale. OP3 constituent data provide an important constraint on model performance. Treatment of boundary layer processes is highlighted as an important area of model uncertainty. Model studies of land-use change confirm earlier work, indicating that further changes to intensive oil palm agriculture in South East Asia, and the tropics in general, could have important impacts on air quality, with the biggest factor being the concomitant changes in NO(x) emissions. With the model scenarios used here, local increases in ozone of around 50 per cent could occur. We also report measurements of short-lived brominated compounds around Sabah suggesting that oceanic (and, especially, coastal) emission sources dominate locally. The concentration of bromine in short-lived halocarbons measured at the surface during OP3 amounted to about 7 ppt, setting an upper limit on the amount of these species that can reach the lower stratosphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A Pyle
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, NCAS, UK.
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