Changes in the hydro-climatic regime of the Hunza Basin in the Upper Indus under CMIP6 climate change projections

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) heavily depends on its frozen water resources, and an accelerated melt due to the projected climate change may significantly alter future water availability. The future hydro-climatic regime and water availability of the Hunza basin (a sub-basin of UIB) were analysed using the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. A data and parameter parsimonious precipitation-runoff model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, was used with energy balance-based subroutines for snowmelt, glacier melt and evapotranspiration. The DDD model was set up for baseline (1991-2010), mid-century (2041-2060) and end-century (2081-2100) climates projections from two global circulation models (GCM), namely EC-Earth3 and MPI-ESM. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature (1.1-8.6 °C) and precipitation (12-32%) throughout the twenty-first century. The simulations show the future flow increase between 23-126% and the future glacier melt increase between 30-265%, depending on the scenarios and GCMs used. Moreover, the simulations suggest an increasing glacier melt contribution from all elevations with a significant increase from the higher elevations. The findings provide a basis for planning and modifying reservoir operation strategies with respect to hydropower generation, irrigation withdrawals, flood control, and drought management.

Simulating the hydrological regime of the snow fed and glaciarised Gilgit Basin in the Upper Indus using global precipitation products and a data parsimonious precipitation-runoff model

In many high altitude river basins, the hydro-climatic regimes and the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation are little known, complicating efforts to quantify current and future water availability. Scarce, or non-existent, gauged observations at high altitudes coupled with complex weather systems and orographic effects further prevent a realistic and comprehensive assessment of precipitation. Quantifying the contribution from seasonal snow and glacier melt to the river runoff for a high altitude, melt dependent region is especially difficult. Global scale precipitation products, in combination with precipitation-runoff modelling may provide insights to the hydro-climatic regimes for such data scarce regions. In this study two global precipitation products; the high resolution (0.1° × 0.1°), newly developed ERA5-Land, and a coarser resolution (0.55° × 0.55°) JRA-55, are used to simulate snow/glacier melts and runoff for the Gilgit Basin, a sub-basin of the Indus. A hydrological precipitation-runoff model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), requires minimum input data and was developed for snow dominated catchments. The mean of total annual precipitation from 1995 to 2010 data was estimated at 888 mm and 951 mm by ERA5-Land and JRA-55, respectively. The daily runoff simulation obtained a Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.78 and 0.72 with ERA5-Land and JRA-55 based simulations, respectively. The simulated snow cover area (SCA) was validated using MODIS SCA and the results are quite promising on daily, monthly and annual scales. Our result showed an overall contribution to the river flow as about 26% from rainfall, 37-38% from snow melt, 31% from glacier melt and 5% from soil moisture. These melt simulations are in good agreement with the overall hydro-climatic regimes and seasonality of the area. The proxy energy balance approach in the DDD model, used to estimate snow melt and evapotranspiration, showed robust behaviour and potential for being employed in data poor basins.

Hydrology influences breeding time in the white-throated dipper

BACKGROUND

Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978-2015) in a natural river system.

RESULTS

Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.

The potential influence of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta on density and breeding of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus

Interactions between birds and fish are often overlooked in aquatic ecosystems. We studied the influence of Atlantic salmon and brown trout on the breeding population size and reproductive output of the white‐throated dipper in a Norwegian river. Acidic precipitation led to the extinction of salmon, but salmon recolonized after liming was initiated in 1991. We compared the dipper population size and reproductive output before (1978–1992) and after (1993–2014) salmon recolonization. Despite a rapid and substantial increase in juvenile salmon, the breeding dipper population size and reproductive output were not influenced by juvenile salmon, trout, or total salmonid density. This might be due to different feeding strategies in salmonids and dippers, where salmonids are mainly feeding on drift, while the dipper is a benthic feeder. The correlation between the size of the dipper population upstream and downstream of a salmonid migratory barrier was similar before and after recolonization, indicating that the downstream territories were not less attractive after the recolonization of salmon. Upstream dipper breeding success rates declined before the recolonization event and increased after, indicating improved water quality due to liming, and increasing invertebrate prey abundances and biodiversity. Surprisingly, upstream the migratory barrier, juvenile trout had a weak positive effect on the dipper population size, indicating that dippers may prey upon small trout. It is possible that wider downstream reaches might have higher abundances of alternative food, rending juvenile trout unimportant as prey. Abiotic factors such as winter temperatures and acidic precipitation with subsequent liming, potentially mediated by prey abundance, seem to play the most important role in the life history of the dipper.