Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted.

METHODS

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival.

RESULTS

Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608-12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128-1.0527]). Child's age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870-0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614-0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298-0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M.

CONCLUSION

The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Globally, millions of children aged below 5 years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5 years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model and to identify determinants of under-five mortality.

METHOD

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Analyses were conducted on 5884 children. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). Single level binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models were employed to investigate determinants of under-five mortality. The fit of the model was checked using Variance Inflation Factor and Likelihood Ratio tests. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to assess the predictive ability of the models. A p-value< 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

The study observed 289 (4.91%) deaths among children aged below 5 years. The study produced a good predictive model and identified increase in number of total children ever born, number of births in last 5 years, and mothers who did not intend to use contraceptive as critical risk factors that increase the odds of under-five mortality. Also, children who were born multiple and residing in certain geographical regions of Ghana is associated with increased odds of under-five mortality. Maternal education and being a female child decreased the odds of under-five mortality. No significant unobserved household-level variations in under-five mortality were found. The spatial map revealed regional differences in crude under-five mortality rate in the country.

CONCLUSION

This study identified critical risk factors for under-five mortality and strongly highlights the need for family planning, improvement in maternal education and addressing regional disparities in child health which could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at improving child survival.

Under-five mortality pattern and associated risk factors: a case-control study at the Princess Marie Louise Children's Hospital in Accra, Ghana

BACKGROUND

Millions of children under the age of 5 years die every year. Some of these deaths occur in hospitals and are related to both clinical characteristics and modifiable risk factors. This study investigates the association between malnutrition and mortality and profiles the presenting features in a case-control study of children under 5 years of age who attended Princess Marie Louise Children's Hospital (PML) in 2011.

METHODS

A total of 120 cases of children under the age of 5 years who were admitted to hospital and died there were matched by sex and age to 120 controls who were children who survived on 1:1 basis from a record of patients admitted to PML in 2011. Data on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical records of the study participants. The association between malnutrition and mortality was determined by conditional logistic regression reported as odds ratios (OR) and their 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI). P < 0.05 was considered significant in all analyses.

RESULTS

Malnutrition was significantly associated with mortality in children under-5 years of age attending PML. In the adjusted analysis, the odds of dying was significantly higher in malnourished children compared with well-nourished children (adjusted OR = 4.32 [95 % CI, 1.33-13.92], p = 0.014]). In addition, a previous episode of diarrhoea within the last year was associated with mortality (adjusted OR = 7.25 [95 % CI, 1.68-31.22], p = 0.008). The proportion of patients with noisy or difficulty breathing, pallor, lethargic appearance, ill-looking appearance, febrile convulsion, altered sensorium, skin lesions, hepatomegaly or oedema was significantly higher among cases than in controls (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition and a previous episode of diarrhoea within the last year were the main risk factors for mortality. Efforts to prevent malnutrition and diarrhoea must be intensified and a protocol to follow-up diarrhoea patients may be beneficial. Six out of the nine clinical features that were proportionally higher in children who died than those who survived, are captured by the Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) screening protocol as emergency or priority signs, giving credence to the use of ETAT in this setting. Thus education of health professionals on the use of the tool to triage patients should be on-going. However, further studies are needed to establish whether the other clinical signs are consistently associated with mortality and if so, whether they can be included among triage criteria, danger signs or in a prognostic scoring system for this setting.

Causes of death in Vanuatu

Background

The population of the Pacific Melanesian country of Vanuatu was 234,000 at the 2009 census. Apart from subsistence activities, economic activity includes tourism and agriculture. Current completeness of vital registration is considered too low to be usable for national statistics; mortality and life expectancy (LE) are derived from indirect demographic estimates from censuses/surveys. Some cause of death (CoD) data are available to provide information on major causes of premature death.

Methods

Deaths 2001–2007 were coded for cause (ICDv10) for ages 0–59 years from: hospital separations (HS) (n = 636), hospital medical certificates (MC) of death (n = 1,169), and monthly reports from community health facilities (CHF) (n = 1,212). Ill-defined causes were 3 % for hospital deaths and 20 % from CHF. Proportional mortality was calculated by cause (excluding ill-defined) and age group (0–4, 5–14 years), and also by sex for 15–59 years. From total deaths by broad age group and sex from 1999 and 2009 census analyses, community deaths were estimated by deduction of hospital deaths MC. National proportional mortality by cause was estimated by a weighted average of MC and CHF deaths.

Results

National estimates indicate main causes of deaths <5 years were: perinatal disorders (45 %) and malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia (27 %). For 15–59 years, main causes of male deaths were: circulatory disease 27 %, neoplasms 13 %, injury 13 %, liver disease 10 %, infection 10 %, diabetes 7 %, and chronic respiratory disease 7 %; and for females: neoplasms 29 %, circulatory disease 15 %, diabetes 10 %, infection 9 %, and maternal deaths 8 %. Infection included tuberculosis, malaria, and viral hepatitis. Liver disease (including hepatitis and cancer) accounted for 18 % of deaths in adult males and 9 % in females. Non-communicable disease (NCD), including circulatory disease, diabetes, neoplasm, and chronic respiratory disease, accounted for 52 % of premature deaths in adult males and 60 % in females. Injuries accounted for 13 % in adult males and 6 % in females. Maternal deaths translate into an annual maternal mortality ratio of 130/100,000 for the period.

Conclusion

Vanuatu manifests a double burden of disease with significant proportional mortality from perinatal disorders and infection/pneumonia <5 years and maternal mortality, coupled with significant proportional mortality in adults (15–59 years) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), neoplasms, and diabetes.

Fatal and non-fatal child maltreatment in the US: an analysis of child, caregiver, and service utilization with the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data Set

The purpose of this study was to compare children who are fatally and non-fatally maltreated in the United States. In this first national-comparison study, we used the Child Abuse and Neglect Data Set of children and families who encounter/receive support from child welfare services. We found that children who were fatally maltreated were younger, were more likely to live with both their parents, and that their families experienced more financial and housing instability compared to non-fatally maltreated children. Overall, families in which children die use/receive fewer social services, as compared to families in which children live. We discuss the results with regard to child welfare practice and research.