EOS - Environment & Oil Spill Response. An analytic tool for environmental assessments to support oil spill response planning: Framework, principles, and proof-of-concept by an Arctic example

The Environment & Oil Spill Response tool (EOS), supports oil spill response planning and decision making. This tool is developed on a research basis, and is an index based, generic and open-source analytic tool, which environmentally can optimise the choice of oil spill response methods for a given spill situation and for a given sea area with respect to environment and nature. The tool is not linked to a particular oil spill simulation model, although it is recommended using oil spill simulation models to have detailed data available for the analysis. The EOS tool consists of an Excel workbook with formulas for calculations and scores followed by screening through decision trees. As case for the EOS tool proof-of-concept, the area of Store Hellefiskebanke, West Greenland, is used. The tool can be downloaded from the Aarhus University home page as a free-of-charge application and is accompanied by a handbook for guidance.

COVID-19 disruptions and Norwegian food and pharmaceutical supply chains: Insights into supply chain risk management, resilience, and reliability

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the COVID-19 crisis affected delivery security and firms' preparedness and responses in Norway. Investigations focus on supply chains which were critical for maintaining the supply of essential goods when large parts of society closed down. This includes four firms belonging to food and pharmaceutical industries, representing different parts of the respective supply chains, and covering imports, exports, domestic distribution, and home-delivery services. The originality of this article is that we employ theoretical models on supply chain risk management, resilience and reliability in conjunction, where these are usually used separately. Recognizing links, overlaps, and complementarity between the models, and using them step-by-step, we exploit synergies that enable more comprehensive assessments of strengths and weaknesses in firms' supply chains, covering gaps, prioritizing between improvement areas, and collecting input towards detailed, actionable risk mitigation actions. Investigations build on semi-structured interviews, systematically covering the formative elements for each of the models. Using the models in conjunction, we compare the firms and identify differences, similarities, strengths, and weaknesses in the consequences of pandemic-related disruptions and how firms approached the challenges. The main challenges for the firms were sudden demand changes early in the pandemic. While the firms had minor differences, their pre-pandemic contingency plans were generally not actionable or detailed enough, nor prepared for the pandemic's longevity. Therefore, more detailed and long-term guidelines are desirable, noting the importance and interrelationships of elements of supply chain risk management, resilience, and reliability. A common feature for all firms, and crucial for handling disruptions, is the importance of good and long-term relationships with upstream and downstream supply chain partners and the need for improving contingency plans and future resilience.

Combined oil spill modelling and shoreline sensitivity analysis for contingency planning in the Irish Sea

Offshore oil spills often result in severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. This work focuses on a busy, yet poorly studied part of NW Europe, the Irish Sea, to assess the impact of future oil spills on the nearby coast. By integrating numerical models and shoreline sensitivity analyses for two confined areas, Liverpool Bay and Milford Haven, this work acknowledges wind direction and speed as principal controls on the movement of oil under winter/storm conditions and in shallow waters. Ocean currents play a secondary role, but are significant in deeper waters and in low-wind summer conditions. The temporal elements used in the modelling thus stress that when the spill occurs is just as important as where. As a corollary, the fate of spilled oil is determined in this work for distinct scenarios and types. Response strategies are recommended to minimise the impact of future spills on coastal populations.

Strategic environmental sensitivity mapping for oil spill contingency planning in the Peruvian marine-coastal zone

Major oil spills can cause significant impacts on marine-coastal zones, particularly on areas with a high oil spill risk, which combine a high oil spill hazard-high likelihood of oil stranding at high concentrations, and a high environmental sensitivity-high concentration of highly sensitive ecological and socioeconomic resources. In this context, a straightforward multicriteria methodology is proposed to determine the second factor of the oil spill risk, namely the strategic environmental sensitivity (SES), in 68 sectors covering the entire Peruvian marine-coastal zone. The methodology comprised the weighted integration of physical, biological, and socioeconomic sensitivity indicators based on their relevance in surface marine oil spills and the Peruvian ecological and socioeconomic context. As a result, relative SES levels from very low to very high were assigned to the sectors. To demonstrate the SES applicability, an oil spill risk assessment at a screening level was performed in a selected sector with current oil production activities. The oil beaching likelihood of worst-case discharge scenarios modelled for January 2021 was used to determine an overall screening oil spill hazard level in the selected sector, while a matrix relating the SES and hazard determined the screening oil spill risk. The results can be used as a decision-support tool to enhance the oil spill contingency planning in Peru or be used in other relevant processes such as the integrated coastal zone management, the marine spatial planning, or the contingency planning of other liquid contaminants. In addition, the proposed methodologies can be adapted to different local and international contexts and scales.

Pandemic risk management: Resources contingency planning and allocation

The repeated history of pandemics, such as SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, and COVID-19, has shown that pandemic risk is inevitable. Extraordinary shortages of medical resources have been observed in many parts of the world. Some attributing factors include the lack of sufficient stockpiles and the lack of coordinated efforts to deploy existing resources to the locations of greatest need. This paper investigates contingency planning and resources allocation from a risk management perspective, as opposed to the prevailing supply chain perspective. The key idea is that the competition for limited critical resources is not only present in different geographical locations but also at different stages of a pandemic. This paper draws on an analogy between risk aggregation and capital allocation in finance and pandemic resources planning and allocation for healthcare systems. The main contribution is to introduce new strategies for optimal stockpiling and allocation balancing spatio-temporal competition for medical supply and demand.

Decision support tool for hospital resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed unprecedented demands on entire health systems and driven them to their capacity, so that health care professionals have been confronted with the difficult problem of ensuring appropriate staffing and resources to a high number of critically ill patients. In light of such high-demand circumstances, we describe an open web-accessible simulation-based decision support tool for a better use of finite hospital resources. The aim is to explore risk and reward under differing assumptions with a model that diverges from most existing models which focus on epidemic curves and related demand of ward and intensive care beds in general. While maintaining intuitive use, our tool allows randomized "what-if" scenarios which are key for real-time experimentation and analysis of current decisions' down-stream effects on required but finite resources over self-selected time horizons. While the implementation is for COVID-19, the approach generalizes to other diseases and high-demand circumstances.

Legislative framework for national contingency planning and response

Contingency plans are a key tool to prevent and respond to events of different origins and nature that may affect animal health, animal welfare and veterinary public health needs. They should include a number of elements ranging from assessment and notification systems, financial arrangements and the role of national authorities. To help to ensure their effective and rapid implementation and prevent gaps, they should be based on a clear legal framework; this 'enabling legislation' will provide for basic requirements and the overall content of the plans. This paper first examines the basis of an effective and comprehensive legal framework for national contingency planning and response and considers the formal and substantive contents of such a framework. It then looks at different steps that can be taken to evaluate and strengthen existing national legislation. Finally, it describes the assistance role of the World Organisation for Animal Health in reviewing and developing national legislation.

Addressing possible problems with patients' expectations, plans and decisions for the future: One strategy used by experienced clinicians in advance care planning conversations

OBJECTIVE

Giving terminally ill people opportunities to participate in advance care planning involves tensions between: endorsing and supporting patients' expectations, plans and decisions, and addressing how realistic these are. The latter risks exerting undue pressure to change plans; undermining autonomy; jeopardising therapeutic relationships. Our objective is to describe how experienced hospice doctors raise potential/actual problems with patients' expectations, plans or decisions.

METHODS

Conversation analysis of video-recorded consultations between five UK hospice consultants, 37 patients and their companions.

RESULTS

Eleven episodes involving five doctors were found. In all of these we identified a 'Hypothetical Scenario Sequence' where doctors raise a hypothetical future scenario wherein current plans/expectations turn out to be problematic, then engage patients in discussing what could be done about this. We describe features of this sequence and how it can circumvent the risks of addressing problems with patients' expectations and plans.

CONCLUSION

Our research breaks new ground, showing that by treating expectations, plans and decisions as potentially not actually problematic, practitioners can recognise and support patients' preferences whilst preparing them for possible difficulties and inevitable uncertainties.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Where professionals judge it appropriate to raise problems about patients' preferences, plans and decisions, this sequence can manage the associated risks.

Impact of Trauma Hospital Ransomware Attack on Surgical Residency Training

BACKGROUND

A recent ransomware attack led to the shutdown of the electronic health information system (HIS) at our trauma center for 2 mo. We investigated its impact on residency training during the downtime.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

General and orthopedic surgical residents who rotated at the hospital were invited to participate in a survey regarding their patient care and residency training experiences during the downtime. Attending surgeons from both the specialties were invited to participate in a semistructured interview regarding their attitude toward residency training during the downtime.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine residents responded to the survey with a response rate of 78.4%. Residents acknowledged significant increases in face-to-face communication and decreases in use of online educational resources during the downtime (P < 0.01). Residents were significantly stressed by the dearth of online resources (P < 0.0001) and by paper-based orders and outpatient clinic (P < 0.05). A multivariate analysis demonstrated an inverse relationship between postgraduate year and stress from paper orders (P = 0.003). Attending surgeon's interviews revealed that they recognized residents' unpreparedness and strove harder to teach more effectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that an unexpected shutdown of the hospital HIS imposed significant stress upon surgical residents providing trauma patient care and made attending surgeons take greater efforts to be more effective teachers. Residents who are digital natives lack adaptability to handle a paper-based workflow. With cyber security threats increasing in health care, preparedness should be included in the graduate medical education curriculum.

Optimizing oil spill cleanup efforts: A tactical approach and evaluation framework

Although anthropogenic oil spills vary in size, duration and severity, their broad impacts on complex social, economic and ecological systems can be significant. Questions pertaining to the operational challenges associated with the tactical allocation of human resources, cleanup equipment and supplies to areas impacted by a large spill are particularly salient when developing mitigation strategies for extreme oiling events. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the application of advanced oil spill modeling techniques in combination with a developed mathematical model to spatially optimize the allocation of response crews and equipment for cleaning up an offshore oil spill. The results suggest that the detailed simulations and optimization model are a good first step in allowing both communities and emergency responders to proactively plan for extreme oiling events and develop response strategies that minimize the impacts of spills.

Modeling oil spill trajectory in Bosphorus for contingency planning

Bosphorus, is a strongly driven international maritime route between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara and is a high risk area for oil spill due to the heavy tanker traffic. In this study an oil spill trajectory model was developed for investigating the potential risks of accidental oil spills in Bosphorus. The proposed oil spill trajectory model combines the surface current velocity data obtained from a calibrated hydrodynamic model with the advection, spreading, and evaporation processes that are effective only on the sea surface and dominant for a couple of hours after the oil spill. Model simulations revealed that spilled oil reaches the shoreline on both sides of Bosphorus in <4h following the spill. We proposed locations for emergency intervention stations in Bosphorus which can be used to devise a suitable oil spill contingency plan to keep the adverse impacts of oil spills at minimum.

Offshore oil spill response practices and emerging challenges

Offshore oil spills are of tremendous concern due to their potential impact on economic and ecological systems. A number of major oil spills triggered worldwide consciousness of oil spill preparedness and response. Challenges remain in diverse aspects such as oil spill monitoring, analysis, assessment, contingency planning, response, cleanup, and decision support. This article provides a comprehensive review of the current situations and impacts of offshore oil spills, as well as the policies and technologies in offshore oil spill response and countermeasures. Correspondingly, new strategies and a decision support framework are recommended for improving the capacities and effectiveness of oil spill response and countermeasures. In addition, the emerging challenges in cold and harsh environments are reviewed with recommendations due to increasing risk of oil spills in the northern regions from the expansion of the Arctic Passage.

Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India

Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner.

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.

Bayesian inference-based environmental decision support systems for oil spill response strategy selection

Contingency plans are essential in guiding the response to marine oil spills. However, they are written before the pollution event occurs so must contain some degree of assumption and prediction and hence may be unsuitable for a real incident when it occurs. The use of Bayesian networks in ecology, environmental management, oil spill contingency planning and post-incident analysis is reviewed and analysed to establish their suitability for use as real-time environmental decision support systems during an oil spill response. It is demonstrated that Bayesian networks are appropriate for facilitating the re-assessment and re-validation of contingency plans following pollutant release, thus helping ensure that the optimum response strategy is adopted. This can minimise the possibility of sub-optimal response strategies causing additional environmental and socioeconomic damage beyond the original pollution event.