The impact of ageing on health care expenditures: a study of steepening

Some researchers claim that health care expenditures for older people are growing faster than for the rest of the population. This process is referred to as steepening. The aim of this paper is to test steepening, applying new data and revised methods. Furthermore, we explain the connection between the terms red herring hypothesis, i.e., that time to death and not age per se drives the health care expenditures, and steepening. We also present the mechanisms that may induce steepening, as presented in the literature. When testing steepening, we apply data from all inpatient stays in somatic hospitals in Norway in the period 1998-2009, i.e., the data has no self-selection and covers the entire population of Norway (5 million). Our analysis does not reject steepening, with the exception of the 0-year-olds. The results also hold when controlling for mortality-related expenditures. Furthermore, we observe an increase in expenditures for the 0-year-olds. Finally, we find increasing mortality-related expenditures over time. We find the link between steepening and the red herring hypothesis to be vague, and we find steepening and the red herring hypothesis to be independent.

Efficacy and safety of infliximab-biosimilar compared to other biological drugs in rheumatoid arthritis: a mixed treatment comparison

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this meta-analysis was to compare the efficacy and safety of infliximab-biosimilar and other available biologicals for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), namely abatacept, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab, rituximab and tocilizumab.

METHODS

A systematic literature review of MEDLINE database until August 2013 was carried out to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Bayesian mixed treatment comparison method was applied for the pairwise comparison of treatments. Improvement rates by the American College of Rheumatology criteria (ACR20 and ACR50) at week 24 were used as efficacy endpoints, and the occurrence of serious adverse events was considered to assess the safety of the biologicals.

RESULTS

Thirty-six RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. All the biological agents proved to be superior to placebo. For ACR20 response, certolizumab pegol showed the highest odds ratio (OR) compared to placebo, OR 7.69 [95% CI 3.69-14.26], followed by abatacept OR 3.7 [95% CI 2.17-6.06], tocilizumab OR 3.69 [95% CI 1.87-6.62] and infliximab-biosimilar OR 3.47 [95% CI 0.85-9.7]. For ACR50 response, certolizumab pegol showed the highest OR compared to placebo OR 8.46 [3.74-16.82], followed by tocilizumab OR 5.57 [95% CI 2.77-10.09], and infliximab-biosimilar OR 4.06 [95% CI 1.01-11.54]. Regarding the occurrence of serious adverse events, the results show no statistically significant difference between infliximab-biosimilar and placebo, OR 1.87 [95% CI 0.74-3.84]. No significant difference regarding efficacy and safety was found between infliximab-biosimilar and the other biological treatments.

CONCLUSION

This is the first indirect meta-analysis in RA that compares the efficacy and safety of biosimilar-infliximab to the other biologicals indicated in RA. We found no significant difference between infliximab-biosimilar and other biological agents in terms of clinical efficacy and safety.

Comparative efficacy and safety of biosimilar infliximab and other biological treatments in ankylosing spondylitis: systematic literature review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy and safety of infliximab-biosimilar with other biological drugs for the treatment of active ankylosing spondylitis (AS).

METHODS

Systematic literature review for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with adalimumab, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab and infliximab-biosimilar in AS was performed and indirect meta-analysis (Bayesian mixed treatment comparison) was carried out. The proportion of patients reaching 20% improvement by the assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society response criteria (ASAS20) at weeks 12 and 24 was used as efficacy endpoints, and the occurrence of serious adverse events at week 24 was applied to compare the safety of the biologicals.

RESULTS

Altogether, 13 RCTs, identified by the systematic literature search, were included in the analysis. Results on the ASAS20 efficacy endpoint were reported for week 12 in 12 RCTs involving 2,395 patients, and for week 24 in 5 RCTs comprising 1,337 patients. All the five biological agents proved to be significantly superior to placebo. Infliximab showed the highest odds ratio (OR) of 7.2 (95% CI 3.68-13.19) compared to placebo, followed by infliximab-biosimilar with OR 6.25 (95% CI 2.55-13.14), both assessed at week 24. No significant difference was found between infliximab-biosimilar and other biological treatments regarding their efficacy and safety.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study which includes a biosimilar drug in the meta-analysis of biological treatments in AS. The results have proven the similar efficacy and safety profile of infliximab-biosimilar treatment compared to other biologicals.

Cost-effectiveness of roflumilast as an add-on treatment to long-acting bronchodilators in the treatment of COPD associated with chronic bronchitis in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding a selective phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor, roflumilast, to a long-acting bronchodilator therapy (LABA) for the treatment of patients with severe-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with chronic bronchitis with a history of frequent exacerbations from the UK payer perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to predict the lifetime cost and outcomes [exacerbations rates, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY)] in patients treated with roflumilast, which showed a reduction in the exacerbation rates and lung function improvement in a pooled analysis from two clinical trials, M2-124 and M2-125. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The addition of roflumilast to concomitant LABA reduced the number of exacerbations from 15.6 to 12.7 [2.9 (95 % CI 0.88-4.92) exacerbations avoided] and increased QALYs from 5.45 to 5.61 [0.16 (95 % CI 0.02-0.31) QALYs gained], at an incremental cost of £3,197 (95 % CI £2,135-£4,253). Cost in LABA alone and LABA + roflumilast were £16,161 and £19,358 respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the base case were £19,505 (95 % CI £364-£38,646) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and 18,219 (95 % CI £12,697-£49,135) per life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses suggest that among the main determinants of cost-effectiveness are the reduction of exacerbations and the case fatality rate due to hospital-treated exacerbations. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests that the probability of roflumilast being cost-effective is 82 % at willingness-to-pay £30,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of roflumilast to LABA in the treatment of patients with severe-to-very severe COPD reduces the rate of exacerbations and can be cost-effective in the UK setting.

Dealing with the health state 'dead' when using discrete choice experiments to obtain values for EQ-5D-5L heath states

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate two different methods to obtain a dead (0)--full health (1) scale for EQ-5D-5L valuation studies when using discrete choice (DC) modeling.

METHOD

The study was carried out among 400 respondents from Barcelona who were representative of the Spanish population in terms of age, sex, and level of education. The DC design included 50 pairs of health states in five blocks. Participants were forced to choose between two EQ-5D-5L states (A and B). Two extra questions concerned whether A and B were considered worse than dead. Each participant performed ten choice exercises. In addition, values were collected using lead-time trade-off (lead-time TTO), for which 100 states in ten blocks were selected. Each participant performed five lead-time TTO exercises. These consisted of DC models offering the health state 'dead' as one of the choices--for which all participants' responses were used (DCdead)--and a model that included only the responses of participants who chose at least one state as worse than dead (WTD) (DCWTD). The study also estimated DC models rescaled with lead-time TTO data and a lead-time TTO linear model.

RESULTS

The DC(dead) and DCWTD models produced relatively similar results, although the coefficients in the DCdead model were slightly lower. The DC model rescaled with lead-time TTO data produced higher utility decrements. Lead-time TTO produced the highest utility decrements.

CONCLUSIONS

The incorporation of the state 'dead' in the DC models produces results in concordance with DC models that do not include 'dead'.

Introducing the composite time trade-off: a test of feasibility and face validity

INTRODUCTION

This study was designed to test the feasibility and face validity of the composite time trade-off (composite TTO), a new approach to TTO allowing for a more consistent elicitation of negative health state values.

METHODS

The new instrument combines a conventional TTO to elicit values for states regarded better than dead and a lead-time TTO for states worse than dead.

RESULTS

A total of 121 participants completed the composite TTO for ten EQ-5D-5L health states. Mean values ranged from -0.104 for health state 53555 to 0.946 for 21111. The instructions were clear to 98 % of the respondents, and 95 % found the task easy to understand, indicating feasibility. Further, the average number of steps taken in the iteration procedure to achieve the point of indifference in the TTO and the average duration of each task were indicative of a deliberate cognitive process.

CONCLUSION

Face validity was confirmed by the high mean values for the mild health states (>0.90) and low mean values for the severe states (<0.42). In conclusion, this study demonstrates the feasibility and face validity of the composite TTO in a face-to-face standardized computer-assisted interview setting.

Moving beyond a limited follow-up in cost-effectiveness analyses of behavioral interventions

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses of behavioral interventions typically use a dichotomous outcome criterion. However, achieving behavioral change is a complex process involving several steps towards a change in behavior. Delayed effects may occur after an intervention period ends, which can lead to underestimation of these interventions. To account for such delayed effects, intermediate outcomes of behavioral change may be used in cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to model cognitive parameters of behavioral change into a cost-effectiveness model of a behavioral intervention.

METHODS

The cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of an existing dataset from an RCT in which an high-intensity smoking cessation intervention was compared with a medium-intensity intervention, was re-analyzed by modeling the stages of change of the Transtheoretical Model of behavioral change. Probabilities were obtained from the dataset and literature and a sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

In the original CEA over the first 12 months, the high-intensity intervention dominated in approximately 58% of the cases. After modeling the cognitive parameters to a future 2nd year of follow-up, this was the case in approximately 79%.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that modeling of future behavioral change in CEA of a behavioral intervention further strengthened the results of the standard CEA. Ultimately, modeling future behavioral change could have important consequences for health policy development in general and the adoption of behavioral interventions in particular.

Paying informally in the Albanian health care sector: a two-tiered stochastic frontier model

Informal payments are deeply ingrained in the health care sector of most Central, Eastern and Southern European countries. Evidence suggests that the price paid informally to medical staff is negotiated either directly or indirectly between patients and medical staff. The aim of this paper is to measure the imperfect information that exists on the amount that has to be paid informally to medical staff. We measure the extent to which patients pay more than the amount medical staff expect informally and the extent to which medical staff request less than patients are willing to pay informally. A two-tiered stochastic frontier model is developed to estimate indicators of patients' and medical staff's imperfect information on informal payments and the effects on the amount the other party is minimally expecting or maximally willing to pay informally. The estimates are based on informal payments to medical staff in the inpatient health care sector in Albania. We use data from the Albania Living Standards Measurement Survey 2002 and 2005. The pooled samples include 707 individuals who have visited inpatient health care services in these 2 years. Our results show that medical staff has less information on the patients' maximum willingness to pay informally than patients have on medical staff's minimum expected amount. These estimates do not depend on categories of illnesses but on certain socio-demographic characteristics.

Deriving reference values and utilities for the QoL-AGHDA in adult GHD

BACKGROUND

Quality of life (QoL) measures are important in growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD) in adults. Ideally, for use in health economics, QoL should be expressed in utilities. The aim of this study was to obtain reference values and utilities for QoL of GHD in adults in Belgium and the Netherlands.

METHODS

The study was conducted in three stages: (1) The Quality of Life-Assessment for Growth Hormone Deficiency in Adults (QoL-AGHDA) and the EQ-5D were administered in a representative sample of 6,875 individuals from the Belgian and 1,400 individuals from the general Dutch population. The EQ-5D(index) can be used to estimate utilities. Using a regression, utilities were predicted from the QoL-AGHDA. (2) QoL-AGHDA scores were obtained from 299 Belgian and 234 Dutch adult patients with GHD and no GH replacement. These scores were converted to utilities and compared the burden of disease with other patient groups. (3) To test the criterion validity, the 'standard' EQ-5D(index) was used in a subsample of 64 Dutch GHD patients and compared with the predicted utilities.

RESULTS

We obtained data from 1,026 Belgian (response rate = 15%) and 1,038 Dutch respondents (response rate = 74%). The Belgian mean QoL-AGHDA value was 6.95 (90% range = 14.00), and the Dutch mean was 5.48 (range = 13.00). The R (2) of the regression model to predict the EQ-5D(index) was 0.360 (Belgium) and 0.482 (the Netherlands). We demonstrated a considerable burden of disease in GHD patients, comparable to patients with hypertension or with type II diabetes. The criterion validity was 0.407 (intraclass correlation, ICC).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions in GHD can now be evaluated more validly in Belgium and the Netherlands.

Cost-effectiveness of pregabalin versus venlafaxine in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder: findings from a Spanish perspective

The objective of the present study was to describe a new model of the cost-effectiveness of treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and its application to a comparison of pregabalin versus venlafaxine extended-release (XR) from a Spanish healthcare perspective. Microsimulation techniques, including Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A) score, number of weeks with minimal or no anxiety (HAM-A <or= 9), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), were used to predict treatment outcomes for patients with moderate-to-severe GAD who would be treated with pregabalin vs venlafaxine XR. Expected levels of healthcare utilization and unit cost of care are derived from Spanish published sources. We express cost-effectiveness alternatively in terms of incremental cost per additional week with minimal or no anxiety, and incremental cost per QALY gained [in 2007 Euros (euro)]. Considering costs of drug treatment only, the incremental cost [mean (95% confidence interval)] of pregabalin (vs venlafaxine XR) would be euro96 (euro86, euro107) per additional week with minimal or no anxiety, and euro32,832 (euro29,656, euro36,308) per QALY gained. When other medical care costs are considered, cost-effectiveness ratios decline to euro70 (euro61, euro80) per additional week with no or minimal anxiety, and euro23,909 (euro20,820, euro27,006) per QALY gained. We conclude that, using a new microsimulation model of the treatment of GAD, pregabalin appears to be cost-effective vs venlafaxine XR in a Spanish healthcare setting.