Sex differences in blood pressure phenotypes over time - the HELIUS study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be classified into different phenotypes according to systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). In younger adults, these phenotypical differences have different prognostic value for men and women. However, little is known about sex differences in the natural course of different BP phenotypes over time.

METHODS

We used baseline and follow-up data from the multiethnic, population-based HELIUS study to assess differences in BP phenotypes over time in men and women aged < 45 years stratified according to baseline office BP into normotension (<140/<90 mmHg), isolated systolic hypertension (ISH, ≥140/<90 mmHg), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH, <140/≥90 mmHg) or systolic diastolic hypertension (SDH, ≥140/≥90 mmHg). Logistic regression adjusted for age, ethnicity, and follow-up time was used to assess the risk of hypertension at follow-up (BP ≥140/90 mmHg or use of antihypertensive medication), stratified by sex.

RESULTS

We included 4103 participants [mean age 33.5 years (SD 7.4), 43.4% men] with a median follow-up time of 6.2 years. Compared to normotensive individuals, the age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) for having hypertension at follow-up were 4.78 (95% CI 2.90; 7.76) for ISH, 6.02 (95% CI 3.70; 9.74) for IDH and 33.73 (95% CI 20.35; 58.38) for SDH in men, while in women, OR were 10.08 (95% CI 4.09; 25.56) for ISH, 27.59 (95% CI 14.68; 53.82) for IDH and 50.58 (95% CI 24.78; 114.84) for SDH.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of hypertension at follow-up was higher among women for all phenotypes compared to men, particularly in those with IDH. Findings of this study emphasize the importance of close BP monitoring in the young, especially in women.

Impact of a Chronic Total Coronary Occlusion on the Incidence of Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Shocks and Mortality: A Substudy of the Dutch Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT)) Registry

BACKGROUND

Chronic total coronary occlusions (CTO) substantially increase the risk for sudden cardiac death. Among patients with chronic ischemic heart disease at risk for sudden cardiac death, an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is the favored therapy for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death. This study sought to investigate the impact of CTOs on the risk for appropriate ICD shocks and mortality within a nationwide prospective cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a subanalysis of the nationwide Dutch-Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT) registry of primary prevention ICD recipients in The Netherlands between September 2014 and June 2016 (n=1442). We identified patients with chronic ischemic heart disease (n=663) and assessed available coronary angiograms for CTO presence (n=415). Patients with revascularized CTOs were excluded (n=79). The primary end point was the composite of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks. Clinical follow-up was conducted for at least 2 years. A total of 336 patients were included, with an average age of 67±9 years, and 20.5% was female (n=69). An unrevascularized CTO was identified in 110 patients (32.7%). During a median follow-up period of 27 months (interquartile range, 24-32), the primary end point occurred in 21.1% of patients with CTO (n=23) compared with 11.9% in patients without CTO (n=27; P=0.034). Corrected for baseline characteristics including left ventricular ejection fraction, and the presence of a CTO was an independent predictor for the primary end point (hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.03-3.22]; P=0.038).

CONCLUSIONS

Within this nationwide prospective registry of primary prevention ICD recipients, the presence of an unrevascularized CTO was an independent predictor for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks.

Networks of gut bacteria relate to cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic population: the HELIUS study

AIMS

Gut microbiota have been linked to blood lipid levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The composition and abundance of gut microbiota trophic networks differ between ethnicities. We aim to evaluate the relationship between gut microbiotal trophic networks and CVD phenotypes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included cross-sectional data from 3860 individuals without CVD history from 6 ethnicities living in the Amsterdam region participating in the prospective Healthy Life in Urban Setting (HELIUS) study. Genetic variants were genotyped, faecal gut microbiota were profiled, and blood and anthropometric parameters were measured. A machine learning approach was used to assess the relationship between CVD risk (Framingham score) and gut microbiota stratified by ethnicity. Potential causal relationships between gut microbiota composition and CVD were inferred by performing two-sample Mendelian randomization with hard CVD events from the Pan-UK Biobank and microbiome genome-wide association studies summary data from a subset of the HELIUS cohort (n = 4117). Microbial taxa identified to be associated with CVD by machine learning and Mendelian randomization were often ethnic-specific, but some concordance across ethnicities was found. The microbes Akkermansia muciniphila and Ruminococcaceae UCG-002 were protective against ischaemic heart disease in African-Surinamese and Moroccans, respectively. We identified a strong inverse association between blood lipids, CVD risk, and the combined abundance of the correlated microbes Christensenellaceae-Methanobrevibacter-Ruminococcaceae (CMR). The CMR cluster was also identified in two independent cohorts and the association with triglycerides was replicated.

CONCLUSION

Certain gut microbes can have a potentially causal relationship with CVD events, with possible ethnic-specific effects. We identified a trophic network centred around Christensenellaceae, Methanobrevibacter, and various Ruminococcaceae, frequently lacking in South-Asian Surinamese, to be protective against CVD risk and associated with low triglyceride levels.

Long-term reliability of the phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del) risk model in predicting major ventricular arrhythmia: a landmark study

AIMS

Recently, a genetic variant-specific prediction model for phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del)-positive individuals was developed to predict individual major ventricular arrhythmia (VA) risk to support decision-making for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation. This model predicts major VA risk from baseline data, but iterative evaluation of major VA risk may be warranted considering that the risk factors for major VA are progressive. Our aim is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model at 3-year follow-up.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a landmark analysis 3 years after presentation and selected only patients with no prior major VA. Data were collected of 268 PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects, aged 43.5 ± 16.3 years, 38.9% male. After the 3 years landmark, subjects had a mean follow-up of 4.0 years (± 3.5 years) and 28 (10%) subjects experienced major VA with an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-3.6], defined as sustained VA, appropriate ICD intervention, or (aborted) sudden cardiac death. The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk score yielded good discrimination in the 3 years landmark cohort with a C-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) and calibration slope of 0.97.

CONCLUSION

The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model has sustained good model performance up to 3 years follow-up in PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects with no history of major VA. It may therefore be used to support decision-making for primary prevention ICD implantation not merely at presentation but also up to at least 3 years of follow-up.

Lipoprotein(a) levels and carotid intima-media thickness in children: A 20-year follow-up study

Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is independently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). In a recent long-term follow-up study involving children with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), Lp(a) levels contributed significantly to early atherosclerosis, as measured by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). To determine if this holds true for children without FH, we conducted a 20-year follow-up study, examining 88 unaffected siblings (mean age: 12.9 years) of children with FH. No significant association was found between Lp(a) and cIMT during follow-up (ß-adjusted [95% confidence interval] = 0.0001 [-0.008 to 0.008] mm per 50 nmol/L increase Lp(a), p = 0.97). In conclusion, our findings suggest that elevated levels of Lp(a) do not play a significant role in arterial wall thickening among children without FH during the 20-year follow-up period. This leads us to consider the possibility that cIMT may not be a suitable marker for detecting potential subtle changes in the arterial wall mediated by Lp(a) in the young, general population. However, it could also be that elevated Lp(a) is only a significant risk factor for atherosclerosis in the presence of other risk factors such as FH.

TOSCCA: a framework for interpretation and testing of sparse canonical correlations

Summary

In clinical and biomedical research, multiple high-dimensional datasets are nowadays routinely collected from omics and imaging devices. Multivariate methods, such as Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), integrate two (or more) datasets to discover and understand underlying biological mechanisms. For an explorative method like CCA, interpretation is key. We present a sparse CCA method based on soft-thresholding that produces near-orthogonal components, allows for browsing over various sparsity levels, and permutation-based hypothesis testing. Our soft-thresholding approach avoids tuning of a penalty parameter. Such tuning is computationally burdensome and may render unintelligible results. In addition, unlike alternative approaches, our method is less dependent on the initialization. We examined the performance of our approach with simulations and illustrated its use on real cancer genomics data from drug sensitivity screens. Moreover, we compared its performance to Penalized Matrix Analysis (PMA), which is a popular alternative of sparse CCA with a focus on yielding interpretable results. Compared to PMA, our method offers improved interpretability of the results, while not compromising, or even improving, signal discovery.

Availability and implementation

The software and simulation framework are available at https://github.com/nuria-sv/toscca.

Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models

We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for both log hazard and log cumulative hazard models. The log (cumulative) hazard in these models is represented by a flexible function of time that may depend on the covariates (i.e., covariate effects may be time-varying). We show that the optimization problem for the proposed models can be formulated as a convex optimization problem and provide a user-friendly R implementation for model fitting and penalty parameter selection based on cross-validation. Simulation study results show the advantage of regularization in terms of increased out-of-sample prediction accuracy and improved calibration and discrimination of predicted survival probabilities, especially when sample size was relatively small with respect to model complexity. An applied example illustrates the proposed methods. In summary, our work provides both a foundation for and an easily accessible implementation of regularized parametric survival modeling and suggests that it improves out-of-sample prediction performance.

Comparative Analysis of Taxonomic and Functional Gut Microbiota Profiles in Relation to Seroconversion of Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies in Euthyroid Participants

Background: Previous studies have reported gut microbiome alterations in Hashimoto's autoimmune thyroiditis (HT) patients. Yet, it is unknown whether an aberrant microbiome is present before clinical disease onset in participants susceptible to HT or whether it reflects the effects of the disease itself. In this study, we report for the first time a comprehensive characterization of the taxonomic and functional profiles of the gut microbiota in euthyroid seropositive and seronegative participants. Our primary goal was to determine taxonomic and functional signatures of the intestinal microbiota associated with serum thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb). A secondary aim was to determine whether different ethnicities warrant distinct reference intervals for accurate interpretation of serum thyroid biomarkers. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, euthyroid participants with (N = 159) and without (N = 1309) TPOAb were selected from the multiethnic (European Dutch, Moroccan, and Turkish) HEalthy Life In an Urban Setting (HELIUS) cohort. Fecal microbiota composition was profiled using 16S rRNA sequencing. Differences between the groups were analyzed based on the overall composition (alpha and beta diversity), as well as differential abundance (DA) of microbial taxa and functional pathways using multiple DA tools. Results: Overall composition showed a substantial overlap between the two groups (p > 0.05 for alpha-diversity; p = 0.39 for beta-diversity), indicating that TPOAb-seropositivity does not significantly differentiate gut microbiota composition and diversity. Interestingly, TPOAb status accounted for only a minor fraction (0.07%) of microbiome variance (p = 0.545). Further exploration of taxonomic differences identified 138 taxa nominally associated with TPOAb status. Among these, 13 taxa consistently demonstrated nominal significance across three additional DA methods, alongside notable associations within various functional pathways. Furthermore, we showed that ethnicity-specific reference intervals for serum thyroid biomarkers are not required, as no significant disparities in serum thyroid markers were found among the three ethnic groups residing in an iodine-replete area (p > 0.05 for thyrotropin, free thyroxine, and TPOAb). Conclusion: These findings suggest that there is no robust difference in gut microbiome between individuals with or without TPOAb in terms of alpha and beta-diversity. Nonetheless, several taxa were identified with nominal significance related to TPOAb presence. Further research is required to determine whether these changes indeed imply a higher risk of overt HT.

Multiomics Analysis Provides Novel Pathways Related to Progression of Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Despite major advances in pharmacological treatment for patients with heart failure, residual mortality remains high. This suggests that important pathways are not yet targeted by current heart failure therapies.

OBJECTIVES

We sought integration of genetic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data in a large cohort of patients with heart failure to detect major pathways related to progression of heart failure leading to death.

METHODS

We used machine learning methodology based on stacked generalization framework and gradient boosting algorithms, using 54 clinical phenotypes, 403 circulating plasma proteins, 36,046 transcript expression levels in whole blood, and 6 million genomic markers to model all-cause mortality in 2,516 patients with heart failure from the BIOSTAT-CHF (Systems BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure) study. Results were validated in an independent cohort of 1,738 patients.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 70 years (Q1-Q3: 61-78 years), 27% were female, median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 4,275 ng/L (Q1-Q3: 2,360-8,486 ng/L), and 7% had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. During a median follow-up of 21 months, 657 (26%) of patients died. The 4 major pathways with a significant association to all-cause mortality were: 1) the PI3K/Akt pathway; 2) the MAPK pathway; 3) the Ras signaling pathway; and 4) epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor resistance. Results were validated in an independent cohort of 1,738 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A systems biology approach integrating genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data identified 4 major pathways related to mortality. These pathways are related to decreased activation of the cardioprotective ERBB2 receptor, which can be modified by neuregulin.

Multi-class glioma segmentation on real-world data with missing MRI sequences: comparison of three deep learning algorithms

This study tests the generalisability of three Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) challenge models using a multi-center dataset of varying image quality and incomplete MRI datasets. In this retrospective study, DeepMedic, no-new-Unet (nn-Unet), and NVIDIA-net (nv-Net) were trained and tested using manual segmentations from preoperative MRI of glioblastoma (GBM) and low-grade gliomas (LGG) from the BraTS 2021 dataset (1251 in total), in addition to 275 GBM and 205 LGG acquired clinically across 12 hospitals worldwide. Data was split into 80% training, 5% validation, and 15% internal test data. An additional external test-set of 158 GBM and 69 LGG was used to assess generalisability to other hospitals' data. All models' median Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) for both test sets were within, or higher than, previously reported human inter-rater agreement (range of 0.74-0.85). For both test sets, nn-Unet achieved the highest DSC (internal = 0.86, external = 0.93) and the lowest Hausdorff distances (10.07, 13.87 mm, respectively) for all tumor classes (p < 0.001). By applying Sparsified training, missing MRI sequences did not statistically affect the performance. nn-Unet achieves accurate segmentations in clinical settings even in the presence of incomplete MRI datasets. This facilitates future clinical adoption of automated glioma segmentation, which could help inform treatment planning and glioma monitoring.

Segmentation of glioblastomas in early post-operative multi-modal MRI with deep neural networks

Extent of resection after surgery is one of the main prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with glioblastoma. To achieve this, accurate segmentation and classification of residual tumor from post-operative MR images is essential. The current standard method for estimating it is subject to high inter- and intra-rater variability, and an automated method for segmentation of residual tumor in early post-operative MRI could lead to a more accurate estimation of extent of resection. In this study, two state-of-the-art neural network architectures for pre-operative segmentation were trained for the task. The models were extensively validated on a multicenter dataset with nearly 1000 patients, from 12 hospitals in Europe and the United States. The best performance achieved was a 61% Dice score, and the best classification performance was about 80% balanced accuracy, with a demonstrated ability to generalize across hospitals. In addition, the segmentation performance of the best models was on par with human expert raters. The predicted segmentations can be used to accurately classify the patients into those with residual tumor, and those with gross total resection.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism in the UK Biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend thromboprophylaxis for patients with cancer at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Polygenic risk scores may improve VTE prediction but have not yet been evaluated in patients with cancer.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the performance of the 5-, 37-, 297-, extended 297- (additionally including factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A), and 100-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) scores in predicting cancer-associated VTE in the UK Biobank, a population-based, prospective cohort study.

METHODS

The primary outcome was VTE during 12 months after cancer diagnosis. Cancer and VTE diagnosis were based on ICD-10 codes. Discrimination was evaluated by c-indices and subdistribution hazard ratios in the upper vs 3 lower quartiles of the scores in a competing risk model. As a comparison, the c-index was calculated for the Khorana cancer type risk classification.

RESULTS

Of 36 150 patients with cancer (median age, 66 years; 48.7% females), 1018 (2.8%) developed VTE. C-indices at 12 months ranged from 0.56 (95% CI, 0.54-0.58) for the 5-SNP to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.62) for the extended 297-SNP scores. The subdistribution hazard ratios ranged from 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.56) for the 5-SNP to 1.90 (95% CI, 1.68-2.16) for the extended 297-SNP scores and were consistent after adjusting for cancer type. For the Khorana cancer type classification, the c-index was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.61), which increased to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67, +0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.07) when combined with the extended 297-SNP score.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate that polygenic VTE risk scores can identify patients with cancer with a 1.9-fold higher VTE risk independent of cancer type. Combined clinical-genetic scores to improve cancer-associated VTE prediction should be evaluated further.

Lipoprotein(a) and carotid intima-media thickness in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia in the Netherlands: a 20-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Elevated lipoprotein(a) and familial hypercholesterolaemia are both independent risk conditions for cardiovascular disease. Although signs of atherosclerosis can be observed in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia, it is unknown whether elevated lipoprotein(a) is an additional risk factor for atherosclerosis in these young patients. Therefore, we aimed to assess the contribution of lipoprotein(a) concentrations to arterial wall thickening (as measured by carotid intima-media thickness) in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia who were followed up into adulthood.

METHODS

We conducted a 20-year follow-up study of 214 children (aged 8-18 years) with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia who were randomly assigned in a statin trial in Amsterdam (Netherlands) between Dec 7, 1997, and Oct 4, 1999. At baseline, and at 2, 10, and 20 years thereafter, blood samples were taken and carotid intima-media thickness was measured. Linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the association between lipoprotein(a) and carotid intima-media thickness during follow-up. We adjusted for sex, age, corrected LDL-cholesterol, statin use, and BMI.

FINDINGS

Our study population comprised 200 children who had a carotid intima-media thickness measurement and a measured lipoprotein(a) concentration from at least one visit available. Mean age at baseline was 13·0 years (SD 2·9), 106 (53%) children were male, and 94 (47%) were female. At baseline, median lipoprotein(a) concentration was 18·5 nmol/L (IQR 8·7-35·5) and mean carotid intima-media thickness was 0·4465 mm (SD 0·0496). During follow-up, higher lipoprotein(a) concentrations contributed significantly to progression of carotid intima-media thickness (β adjusted 0·0073 mm per 50 nmol/L increase in lipoprotein(a) [95% CI 0·0013-0·0132]; p=0·017).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that lipoprotein(a) concentrations contribute significantly to arterial wall thickening in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia who were followed-up until adulthood, suggesting that lipoprotein(a) is an independent and additional risk factor for early atherosclerosis in those already at increased risk. Lipoprotein(a) measurement in young patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia is crucial to identify those at potentially highest risk for cardiovascular disease.

FUNDING

Silence Therapeutics.

A European-Japanese study on peach allergy: IgE to Pru p 7 associates with severity

BACKGROUND

Pru p 3 and Pru p 7 have been implicated as risk factors for severe peach allergy. This study aimed to establish sensitization patterns to five peach components across Europe and in Japan, to explore their relation to pollen and foods and to predict symptom severity.

METHODS

In twelve European (EuroPrevall project) and one Japanese outpatient clinic, a standardized clinical evaluation was conducted in 1231 patients who reported symptoms to peach and/or were sensitized to peach. Specific IgE against Pru p 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 and against Cup s 7 was measured in 474 of them. Univariable and multivariable Lasso regression was applied to identify combinations of parameters predicting severity.

RESULTS

Sensitization to Pru p 3 dominated in Southern Europe but was also quite common in Northern and Central Europe. Sensitization to Pru p 7 was low and variable in the European centers but very dominant in Japan. Severity could be predicted by a model combining age of onset of peach allergy, probable mugwort, Parietaria pollen and latex allergy, and sensitization to Japanese cedar pollen, Pru p 4 and Pru p 7 which resulted in an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.73-0.74). Pru p 3 tended to be a risk factor in South Europe only.

CONCLUSIONS

Pru p 7 was confirmed as a significant risk factor for severe peach allergy in Europe and Japan. Combining outcomes from clinical and demographic background with serology resulted in a model that could better predict severity than CRD alone.

Ethnic differences in blood pressure levels over time: the HELIUS study

AIMS

Hypertension is an important global health burden with major differences in prevalence among ethnic minorities compared with host populations. Longitudinal research on ethnic differences in blood pressure (BP) levels provides the opportunity to assess the efficacy of strategies aimed at mitigating gaps in hypertension control. In this study, we assessed the change in BP levels over time in a multi-ethnic population-based cohort in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used baseline and follow-up data from HELIUS to assess differences in BP over time between participants of Dutch, South Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Moroccan, and Turkish descent. Baseline data were collected between 2011 and 2015 and follow-up data between 2019 and 2021. The main outcome was ethnic differences in systolic BP (SBP) over time determined by linear mixed models adjusted for age, sex, and use of antihypertensive medication. We included 22 109 participants at baseline, from which 10 170 participants had complete follow-up data. The mean follow-up time was 6.3 (1.1) years. Compared with the Dutch population, the mean SBP increased significantly more from baseline to follow-up in Ghanaians [1.78 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-2.79], Moroccans (2.06 mmHg, 95% CI 1.23-2.90), and the Turkish population (1.30 mmHg, 95% CI 0.38-2.22). Systolic blood pressure differences were in part explained by differences in body mass index (BMI). No differences in SBP trajectory were present between the Dutch and Surinamese population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate a further increase of ethnic differences in SBP among Ghanaian, Moroccan, and Turkish populations compared with the Dutch reference population that are in part attributable to differences in BMI.

A non-randomized risk-adjusted comparison of lenalidomide + R-CHOP versus R-CHOP for MYC-rearranged DLBCL patients

Patients with MYC rearranged (MYC-R) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) have a poor prognosis. Previously, we demonstrated in a single-arm phase II trial (HOVON-130) that addition of lenalidomide to R-CHOP (R2CHOP) is well-tolerated and yields similar complete metabolic remission rates as more intensive chemotherapy regimens in literature. In parallel with this single-arm interventional trial, a prospective observational screening cohort (HOVON-900) was open in which we identified all newly diagnosed MYC-R DLBCL patients in the Netherlands. Eligible patients from the observational cohort that were not included in the interventional trial served as control group in the present risk-adjusted comparison. R2CHOP treated patients from the interventional trial (n = 77) were younger than patients in the R-CHOP control cohort (n = 56) (median age 63 versus 70 years, p = 0.018) and they were more likely to have a lower WHO performance score (p = 0.013). We adjusted for differences at baseline using 1:1 matching, multivariable analysis, and weighting using the propensity score to reduce treatment-selection bias. These analyses consistently showed improved outcome after R2CHOP with HRs of 0.53, 0.51, and 0.59, respectively, for OS, and 0.53, 0.59, and 0.60 for PFS. Thus, this non-randomized risk-adjusted comparison supports R2CHOP as an additional treatment option for MYC-R DLBCL patients.

Gut microbiome transitions across generations in different ethnicities in an urban setting-the HELIUS study

BACKGROUND

During the course of history, various important lifestyle changes have caused profound transitions of the gut microbiome. These include the introduction of agriculture and animal husbandry, a shift from a nomadic to a more sedentary lifestyle, and recently increased levels of urbanization and a transition towards a more Western lifestyle. The latter is linked with shifts in the gut microbiome that have a reduced fermentative capability and which are commonly associated with diseases of affluence. In this study, in which 5193 subjects are included, we investigated the direction of microbiome shifts that occur in various ethnicities living in Amsterdam by comparing 1st and 2nd generation participants. We furthermore validated part of these findings with a cohort of subjects that moved from rural Thailand to the USA.

RESULTS

The abundance of the Prevotella cluster, which includes P. copri and the P. stercorea trophic network, diminished in the 2nd generation Moroccans and Turks but also in younger Dutch, whilst the Western-associated Bacteroides/Blautia/Bifidobacterium (BBB) cluster, which has an inverse correlation with α-diversity, increased. At the same time, the Christensenellaceae/Methanobrevibacter/Oscillibacter trophic network, which is positively associated with α-diversity and a healthy BMI, decreased in younger Turks and Dutch. Large compositional shifts were not observed in South-Asian and African Surinamese, in whom the BBB cluster is already dominant in the 1st generation, but ASV-level shifts towards certain species, associated amongst others with obesity, were observed.

CONCLUSION

The Moroccan and Turkish populations, but also the Dutch population are transitioning towards a less complex and fermentative less capable configuration of the gut microbiota, which includes a higher abundance of the Western-associated BBB cluster. The Surinamese, whom have the highest prevalence of diabetes and other diseases of affluence, are already dominated by the BBB cluster. Given the continuous increase in diseases of affluence, this devolution towards low-diversity and fermentatively less capable gut microbiome compositions in urban environments is a worrying development. Video Abstract.

Child Abuse, Misdiagnosed by an Expertise Center-Part II-Misuse of Bayes' Theorem

A newborn girl had, from two weeks on, small bruises on varying body locations, but not on her chest. Her Armenian grandmother easily bruised, too. Her mother was diagnosed with hypermobility-type Ehlers-Danlos-Syndrome (hEDS), an autosomal dominant connective tissue disorder, with a 50% inheritance probability. Referral to a University Medical Center located "Dutch Expertise Center for Child Abuse" resulted (prior to consultation) in physical abuse suspicion. Protocol-based skeletal X-rays showed three healed, asymptomatic rib fractures. A protocol-based Bayesian likelihood ratio guesstimation gave 10-100, erroneously used to suggest a 10-100 times likelier non-accidental-than-accidental cause. Foster care placement followed, even in a secret home, where she also bruised, suggesting hEDS inheritance. Correct non-accidental/accidental Bayes' probability of symptoms is (likelihood ratio) × (physical abuse incidence). From the literature, we derived an infant abuse incidence between about ≈0.0009 and ≈0.0026 and a likelihood ratio of <5 for bruises. For rib fractures, we used a zero likelihood ratio, arguing their cause was birth trauma from the extra delivery pressure on the chest, combined with fragile bones as the daughter of an hEDS-mother. We thus derived a negligible abuse/accidental probability between <5 × 0.0009 <0.005 and <5 × 0.0026 <0.013. The small abuse incidence implies that correctly using Bayes' theorem will also miss true infant physical abuse cases. Curiously, because likelihood ratios assess how more often symptoms develop if abuse did occur versus non-abuse, Bayes' theorem then implies a 100% infant abuse incidence (unwittingly) used by LECK. In conclusion, probabilities should never replace differential diagnostic procedures, the accepted medical method of care. Well-known from literature, supported by the present case, is that (child abuse pediatrics) physicians, child protection workers, and judges were unlikely to understand Bayesian statistics. Its use without statistics consultation should therefore not have occurred. Thus, Bayesian statistics, and certainly (misused) likelihood ratios, should never be applied in cases of physical child abuse suspicion. Finally, parental innocence follows from clarifying what could have caused the girl's bruises (inherited hEDS), and rib fractures (birth trauma from fragile bones).

Growth charts for Marfan syndrome in the Netherlands and analysis of genotype-phenotype relationships

To optimize care for children with Marfan syndrome (MFS) in the Netherlands, Dutch MFS growth charts were constructed. Additionally, we aimed to investigate the effect of FBN1 variant type (haploinsufficiency [HI]/dominant negative [DN]) on growth, and compare MFS-related height increase across populations. Height and weight data of individuals with MFS aged 0-21 years were retrospectively collected. Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) was used for growth chart modeling. To investigate genotype-phenotype relationships, FBN1 variant type was included as an independent variable in height-for-age and BMI-for-age models. MFS-related height increase was compared with that of previous MFS growth studies from the United States, Korea, and France. Height and weight data of 389 individuals with MFS were included (210 males). Height-for-age, BMI-for-age, and weight-for-height charts reflected the tall and slender MFS habitus throughout childhood. Mean increase in height of individuals with MFS compared with the general Dutch population was significantly lower than in the other three MFS populations compared to their reference populations. FBN1-HI variants were associated with taller height in both sexes, and decreased BMI in females (p-values <0.05). This Dutch MFS growth study broadens the notion that genetic background and MFS variant type (HI/DN) influence tall and slender stature in MFS.

Perceived ethnic discrimination, suicidal ideation and mastery in a multi-ethnic cohort: the HELIUS study

BACKGROUND

The association between perceived ethnic discrimination (PED) and mental health conditions is well studied. However, less is known about the association between PED and suicidal ideation, or the role of positive psychosocial factors in this association.

AIMS

To examine the association between PED and suicidal ideation among ethnic minority groups in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and investigate whether ethnicity and mastery (people's extent of feeling in control of their lives and environment) moderate this association.

METHOD

Cross-sectional data from the multi-ethnic HELIUS study were analysed (n = 17 053) for participants of South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish and Moroccan origin. PED was measured using the Everyday Discrimination Scale, suicidal ideation using item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and mastery using the Pearlin-Schooler Mastery Scale.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analyses demonstrated a small positive association between PED and suicidal ideation (OR = 1.068, 95% CI 1.059-1.077), which did not differ among ethnic minority groups. Mastery did not moderate the association between PED and suicidal ideation among the ethnic minority groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis that PED is associated with suicidal ideation and this association does not significantly vary between ethnic minority groups. Although higher levels of mastery were associated with lower suicidal ideation, mastery did not moderate the relationship between PED and suicidal ideation. Besides targeting ethnic discrimination as a societal problem, future longitudinal research is needed to investigate whether interventions aimed at improving mastery could reduce suicidal ideation in ethnic minority groups.

Perceptions of a Secure Cloud-Based Solution for Data Sharing During Acute Stroke Care: Qualitative Interview Study

BACKGROUND

Acute stroke care demands fast procedures performed through the collaboration of multiple professionals across multiple organizations. Cloud computing and the wide adoption of electronic medical records (EMRs) enable health care systems to improve data availability and facilitate sharing among professionals. However, designing a secure and privacy-preserving EMR cloud-based application is challenging because it must dynamically control the access to the patient's EMR according to the needs for data during treatment.

OBJECTIVE

We developed a prototype of a secure EMR cloud-based application. The application explores the security features offered by the eHealth cloud-based framework created by the Advanced Secure Cloud Encrypted Platform for Internationally Orchestrated Solutions in Health Care Horizon 2020 project. This study aimed to collect impressions, challenges, and improvements for the prototype when applied to the use case of secure data sharing among acute care teams during emergency treatment in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We conducted 14 semistructured interviews with medical professionals with 4 prominent roles in acute care: emergency call centers, ambulance services, emergency hospitals, and general practitioner clinics. We used in-depth interviews to capture their perspectives about the application's design and functions and its use in a simulated acute care event. We used thematic analysis of interview transcripts. Participants were recruited until the collected data reached thematic saturation.

RESULTS

The participants' perceptions and feedback are presented as 5 themes identified from the interviews: current challenges (theme 1), quality of the shared EMR data (theme 2), integrity and auditability of the EMR data (theme 3), usefulness and functionality of the application (theme 4), and trust and acceptance of the technology (theme 5). The results reinforced the current challenges in patient data sharing during acute stroke care. Moreover, from the user point of view, we expressed the challenges of adopting the Advanced Secure Cloud Encrypted Platform for Internationally Orchestrated Solutions in Health Care Acute Stroke Care application in a real scenario and provided suggestions for improving the proposed technology's acceptability.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has endorsed a system that supports data sharing among acute care professionals with efficiency, but without compromising the security and privacy of the patient. This explorative study identified several significant barriers to and improvement opportunities for the future acceptance and adoption of the proposed system. Moreover, the study results highlight that the desired digital transformation should consider integrating the already existing systems instead of requesting migration to a new centralized system.

Lipoprotein(a) levels in children with suspected familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cross-sectional study

AIMS

Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) predisposes children to the early initiation of atherosclerosis and is preferably diagnosed by DNA analysis. Yet, in many children with a clinical presentation of FH, no mutation is found. Adult data show that high levels of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] may underlie a clinical presentation of FH, as the cholesterol content of Lp(a) is included in conventional LDL cholesterol measurements. As this is limited to adult data, Lp(a) levels in children with and without (clinical) FH were evaluated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Children were eligible if they visited the paediatric lipid clinic (1989-2020) and if Lp(a) measurement and DNA analysis were performed. In total, 2721 children (mean age: 10.3 years) were included and divided into four groups: 1931 children with definite FH (mutation detected), 290 unaffected siblings/normolipidaemic controls (mutation excluded), 108 children with probable FH (clinical presentation, mutation not detected), and 392 children with probable non-FH (no clinical presentation, mutation not excluded). In children with probable FH, 32% were found to have high Lp(a) [geometric mean (95% confidence interval) of 15.9 (12.3-20.6) mg/dL] compared with 10 and 10% [geometric means (95% confidence interval) of 11.5 (10.9-12.1) mg/dL and 9.8 (8.4-11.3) mg/dL] in children with definite FH (P = 0.017) and unaffected siblings (P = 0.002), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Lp(a) was significantly higher and more frequently elevated in children with probable FH compared with children with definite FH and unaffected siblings, suggesting that high Lp(a) may underlie the clinical presentation of FH when no FH-causing mutation is found. Performing both DNA analysis and measuring Lp(a) in all children suspected of FH is recommended to assess possible LDL cholesterol overestimation related to increased Lp(a).

A cross-sectional study on fatigue, anxiety, and symptoms of depression and their relation with medical status in adult patients with Marfan syndrome. Psychological consequences in Marfan syndrome

Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a connective tissue disorder affecting the cardiovascular, ocular, and skeletal system, which may be accompanied by psychological features. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of fatigue, anxiety, and symptoms of depression in MFS patients, and to assess the degree to which sociodemographic and clinical variables are associated with fatigue and psychological aspects. The prevalence of fatigue, anxiety, and symptoms of depression were assessed in two cohorts of MFS patients and compared with healthy controls. The checklist individual strength (CIS), and hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS) questionnaires were utilized. Medical status was assessed (family history of MFS, aortic root dilatation >40 mm, previous aortic surgery, aortic dissection, chronic pain, skeletal involvement, and scoliosis). Severe fatigue was experienced by 37% of the total MFS cohort (n = 155). MFS patients scored significantly higher on the CIS questionnaire, concerning severe fatigue, as compared with the general Dutch population (p < 0.0001). There were no differences in HADS anxiety or depression scores. In older MFS patients, with a more severe cardiovascular phenotype, chronic pain, and a higher unemployment rate, significantly more symptoms of depression were observed, when compared with the general population (p = 0.027) or compared with younger MFS patients (p = 0.026). Multivariate analysis, showed that anxiety was associated with chronic pain (p = 0.022) and symptoms of depression with unemployment (p = 0.024). MFS patients report significantly more severe fatigue as compared with the general population. Since the cause of fatigue is unclear, more research may be needed. Psychological intervention, for example, cognitive behavioral therapy, may contribute to a reduction in psychological symptoms.

Six-lead device superior to single-lead smartwatch ECG in atrial fibrillation detection

This was a head-to-head comparative study on different electrocardiogram (ECG)-based smartwatches and devices for atrial fibrillation detection. We prospectively included 220 patients scheduled for electrical cardioversion and recorded ECGs with 3 different devices (Withings Move ECG, Apple Watch 5, Kardia Mobile 6-leads) as well as the standard 12-lead ECG (gold standard), both before and after cardioversion. All atrial fibrillation detection algorithms had high accuracy (sensitivity and specificity: 91-99%) but were hampered by uninterpretable recordings (20-24%). In cardiologists' interpretation, the 6-lead device was superior (sensitivity 99%, specificity 97%) to both single-lead smartwatches (P < .05) for atrial fibrillation detection.

Between-hospital variation in time to glioblastoma surgery: a report from the Quality Registry Neuro Surgery in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

Patients with glioblastoma are often scheduled for urgent elective surgery. Currently, the impact of the waiting period until glioblastoma surgery is undetermined. In this national quality registry study, the authors determined the wait times until surgery for patients with glioblastoma, the risk factors associated with wait times, and the risk-standardized variation in time to surgery between Dutch hospitals. The associations between time to surgery and patient outcomes were also explored.

METHODS

Data from all 4589 patients who underwent first-time glioblastoma surgery between 2014 and 2019 in the Netherlands were collected by 13 hospitals in the Quality Registry Neuro Surgery. Time to surgery comprised 1) the time from first MR scan to surgery (MTS), and 2) the time from first neurosurgical consultation to surgery (CTS). Long MTS was defined as more than 21 days and long CTS as more than 14 days. Potential risk factors were analyzed in multivariable logistic regression models. The standardized rate of long time to surgery was analyzed using funnel plots. Patient outcomes including Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score change, complications, and survival were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression and proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The median overall MTS and CTS were 18 and 9 days, respectively. Overall, 2576 patients (56%) had an MTS within 3 weeks and 3069 (67%) had a CTS within 2 weeks. Long MTS was significantly associated with older age, higher preoperative KPS score, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists comorbidity class, season, lower hospital case volume, university affiliation, and resection. Long CTS was significantly associated with higher baseline KPS score, university affiliation, resection, more recent year of treatment, and season. In funnel plots, considerable practice variation was observed between hospitals in patients with long times to surgery. Fewer patients with KPS score improvement were observed after a long time until resection. Long CTS was associated with longer survival. Complications and KPS score decline were not associated with time to surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable between-hospital variation among Dutch hospitals was observed in the time to glioblastoma surgery. A long time to resection impeded KPS score improvement, and therefore, patients who may improve should be identified for more urgent resection. Longer survival was observed in patients selected for longer time until surgery after neurosurgical consultation (CTS).

bnormal aortic hemodynamics are associated with risk factors for aortic complications in patients with marfan syndrome

Background

It is difficult to assess the risk for aortic dissection beyond the aortic root in patients with Marfan syndrome (MFS). To aid risk assessment in these patients, we investigated aortic flow and wall shear stress (WSS) by 4D flow magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with MFS and compared the results with healthy volunteers. We hypothesized that MFS patients with a high-risk profile for aortic dissection would show abnormal hemodynamics in aortic regions associated with aortic dissection.

Methods

MFS patients (n = 55) and healthy subjects (n = 25), matched for age and sex, prospectively underwent 4D flow MRI. 4D flow maps were constructed to detect elevated (defined as higher than the three-dimensional 95 % confidence interval) and deviant directed (defined as vector angle differences higher than 120°) WSS in MFS patients as compared to the controls. Univariate and multivariate associations with risk factors for aortic dissection in MFS patients were assessed.

Results

The maximum incidence for elevated WSS was 20 % (CI 9 %-31 %) and found in the ascending aorta. The maximum for deviant directed WSS was 39 % (CI 26 %-52 %) and found in the inner descending aorta. Significantly more male patients had deviant directed WSS in the inner proximal descending aorta (63 % vs 24 %, p = 0.014). Multivariate analysis showed that deviant directed WSS was associated with male sex (p = 0.019), and a haplo-insufficient FBN1 mutation type (p = 0.040). In 60 % of MFS patients with a previous aortic root replacement surgery, abnormal hemodynamics were found in the ascending aorta. No significant differences between hemodynamics were found in the descending aorta between operated and non-operated patients.

Conclusion

Deviant directed WSS in the proximal descending aorta is associated with known risk factors for aortic dissection in MFS patients, namely male sex and a haploinsufficient FBN1 mutation type.

P11.37.B When to resect or biopsy for patients with supratentorial glioblastoma: a multivariable prediction model

Background

The prospects of a patient with suspected glioblastoma may rely heavily on the indication for surgical resection versus biopsy only. Biopsy percentages vary considerably across hospitals and guidelines for treatment of glioblastoma lack criteria for surgical decision-making. To identify patient and tumor characteristics associated with the decision to resect or biopsy a glioblastoma and to develop and validate a prediction model for decision support.

Material and Methods

Clinical data and pre-operative MRI scans were collected for adults who underwent first-time surgery for supratentorial glioblastoma from a registry-based cohort study of 12 hospitals from the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, and the United States between 1st of January 2007 and 31st of December 2011. The main outcome was the type of surgical procedure: surgical resection or biopsy only. Predictors were patient- and tumor-related characteristics. Radiological factors were extracted from MRI using an automated tumor segmentation method. A prediction model was constructed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The model was cross-validated and externally validated with a leave-one-hospital-out approach.

Results

Out of 1053 patients treated for glioblastoma, 28% underwent biopsy only. Biopsy rates varied from 15-40% across hospitals. The prediction model showed excellent discrimination with an average area under the curve of 0.86. Of the patient-related characteristics, younger age was associated more with resection and Karnofsky Performance Score of 60 or less with biopsy. Of the tumor-related characteristics, a location in the right hemisphere, unifocality, no tumor midline crossing, and no involvement of the cortical spinal tract, were associated with resection, as well as a high expected resectability index, a location in the right occipital lobe, and a higher percentage of tumor in Schaefer’s dorsal or ventral attention, limbic, and default networks. External validation proved acceptable to outstanding discrimination with areas under the curve ranging between 0.79 and 0.92 for hospitals.

Conclusion

A prediction model is presented and validated to support the decision to resect or to biopsy a patient with a suspected supratentorial glioblastoma. In this prediction model, tumor-related characteristics were more informative than patient-related factors. This may support surgical decision-making for individual patients, or facilitate comparisons of patient cohorts between surgeons or institutions.

Gut microbiome associations with host genotype vary across ethnicities and potentially influence cardiometabolic traits

Previous studies in mainly European populations have reported that the gut microbiome composition is associated with the human genome. However, the genotype-microbiome interaction in different ethnicities is largely unknown. We performed a large fecal microbiome genome-wide association study of a single multiethnic cohort, the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting (HELIUS) cohort (N = 4,117). Mendelian randomization was performed using the multiethnic Pan-UK Biobank (N = 460,000) to dissect potential causality. We identified ethnicity-specific associations between host genomes and gut microbiota. Certain microbes were associated with genotype in multiple ethnicities. Several of the microbe-associated loci were found to be related to immune functions, interact with glutamate and the mucus layer, or be expressed in the gut or brain. Additionally, we found that gut microbes potentially influence cardiometabolic health factors such as BMI, cholesterol, and blood pressure. This provides insight into the relationship of ethnicity and gut microbiota and into the possible causal effects of gut microbes on cardiometabolic traits.

Preoperative Brain Tumor Imaging: Models and Software for Segmentation and Standardized Reporting

For patients suffering from brain tumor, prognosis estimation and treatment decisions are made by a multidisciplinary team based on a set of preoperative MR scans. Currently, the lack of standardized and automatic methods for tumor detection and generation of clinical reports, incorporating a wide range of tumor characteristics, represents a major hurdle. In this study, we investigate the most occurring brain tumor types: glioblastomas, lower grade gliomas, meningiomas, and metastases, through four cohorts of up to 4,000 patients. Tumor segmentation models were trained using the AGU-Net architecture with different preprocessing steps and protocols. Segmentation performances were assessed in-depth using a wide-range of voxel and patient-wise metrics covering volume, distance, and probabilistic aspects. Finally, two software solutions have been developed, enabling an easy use of the trained models and standardized generation of clinical reports: Raidionics and Raidionics-Slicer. Segmentation performances were quite homogeneous across the four different brain tumor types, with an average true positive Dice ranging between 80 and 90%, patient-wise recall between 88 and 98%, and patient-wise precision around 95%. In conjunction to Dice, the identified most relevant other metrics were the relative absolute volume difference, the variation of information, and the Hausdorff, Mahalanobis, and object average symmetric surface distances. With our Raidionics software, running on a desktop computer with CPU support, tumor segmentation can be performed in 16–54 s depending on the dimensions of the MRI volume. For the generation of a standardized clinical report, including the tumor segmentation and features computation, 5–15 min are necessary. All trained models have been made open-access together with the source code for both software solutions and validation metrics computation. In the future, a method to convert results from a set of metrics into a final single score would be highly desirable for easier ranking across trained models. In addition, an automatic classification of the brain tumor type would be necessary to replace manual user input. Finally, the inclusion of post-operative segmentation in both software solutions will be key for generating complete post-operative standardized clinical reports.

SOURCE beyond first-line: A survival prediction model for patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma after failure of first-line palliative systemic therapy

4037

Background: Prediction models for survival may aid shared decision making between physicians and patients. Prior models have been developed that predict survival for patients with potentially curable esophagogastric cancer and patients with metastatic esophageal cancer who start first-line therapy (the SOURCE models). The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a registry-based clinical prediction model, called SOURCE beyond first-line, for survival of patients with metastatic esophagogastric cancer after failure of first-line palliative systemic therapy. Methods: Patients with unresectable or metastatic (synchronous or metachronous) esophageal or gastric cancer who received first-line systemic therapy (N = 1067) between 2015-2017 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Follow-up data were retrieved in 2019. Patient, tumor and treatment characteristics at primary diagnosis and at progression of disease, were used to develop the prediction model. A Cox proportional hazards regression prediction model was developed through forward and backward selection using Akaike’s Information Criterion. The model was internally validated through 10-fold cross-validations to assess performance on unseen data. Model discrimination (C-index) and calibration (slope and intercept) were used to evaluate performance of the complete and cross-validated models. Results: The final model consisted of 10 patient, tumor and treatment characteristics. The C-index was 0.75 (0.74-0.77), the calibration slope 0.99 (0.98-0.99) and the calibration intercept 0.02 (0.01-0.02). Internal cross-validation of the model showed that the model performed adequately on unseen data: C-index 0.79 (0.76-0.80), calibration slope 1.02 (1.00-1.04) and calibration intercept -0.01 (-0.01-0.02). Conclusions: The SOURCE beyond first-line model predicted survival with fair discriminatory ability and good calibration, and is a valuable addition to the existing SOURCE prediction models. In the future this model will be integrated in an online decision support tool that can be used in clinical practice to aid personalized treatment.

A deep learning approach identifies new ECG features in congenital long QT syndrome

BACKGROUND

Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a rare heart disease caused by various underlying mutations. Most general cardiologists do not routinely see patients with congenital LQTS and may not always recognize the accompanying ECG features. In addition, a proportion of disease carriers do not display obvious abnormalities on their ECG. Combined, this can cause underdiagnosing of this potentially life-threatening disease.

METHODS

This study presents 1D convolutional neural network models trained to identify genotype positive LQTS patients from electrocardiogram as input. The deep learning (DL) models were trained with a large 10-s 12-lead ECGs dataset provided by Amsterdam UMC and externally validated with a dataset provided by University Hospital Leuven. The Amsterdam dataset included ECGs from 10000 controls, 172 LQTS1, 214 LQTS2, and 72 LQTS3 patients. The Leuven dataset included ECGs from 2200 controls, 32 LQTS1, and 80 LQTS2 patients. The performance of the DL models was compared with conventional QTc measurement and with that of an international expert in congenital LQTS (A.A.M.W). Lastly, an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) technique was used to better understand the prediction models.

RESULTS

Overall, the best performing DL models, across 5-fold cross-validation, achieved on average a sensitivity of 84 ± 2%, 90 ± 2% and 87 ± 6%, specificity of 96 ± 2%, 95 ± 1%, and 92 ± 4%, and AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01, 0.92 ± 0.02, and 0.89 ± 0.03, for LQTS 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The DL models were also shown to perform better than conventional QTc measurements in detecting LQTS patients. Furthermore, the performances held up when the DL models were validated on a novel external cohort and outperformed the expert cardiologist in terms of specificity, while in terms of sensitivity, the DL models and the expert cardiologist in LQTS performed the same. Finally, the explainable AI technique identified the onset of the QRS complex as the most informative region to classify LQTS from non-LQTS patients, a feature previously not associated with this disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that DL models can potentially be used to aid cardiologists in diagnosing LQTS. Furthermore, explainable DL models can be used to possibly identify new features for LQTS on the ECG, thus increasing our understanding of this syndrome.

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Versus Upfront Surgery for Resectable and Borderline Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Long-Term Results of the Dutch Randomized PREOPANC Trial

PURPOSE

The benefit of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer remains controversial. Initial results of the PREOPANC trial failed to demonstrate a statistically significant overall survival (OS) benefit. The long-term results are reported.

METHODS

In this multicenter, phase III trial, patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer were randomly assigned (1:1) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or upfront surgery in 16 Dutch centers. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy consisted of three cycles of gemcitabine combined with 36 Gy radiotherapy in 15 fractions during the second cycle. After restaging, patients underwent surgery followed by four cycles of adjuvant gemcitabine. Patients in the upfront surgery group underwent surgery followed by six cycles of adjuvant gemcitabine. The primary outcome was OS by intention-to-treat. No safety data were collected beyond the initial report of the trial.

RESULTS

Between April 24, 2013, and July 25, 2017, 246 eligible patients were randomly assigned to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (n = 119) and upfront surgery (n = 127). At a median follow-up of 59 months, the OS was better in the neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy group than in the upfront surgery group (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.96; P = .025). Although the difference in median survival was only 1.4 months (15.7 months v 14.3 months), the 5-year OS rate was 20.5% (95% CI, 14.2 to 29.8) with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and 6.5% (95% CI, 3.1 to 13.7) with upfront surgery. The effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was consistent across the prespecified subgroups, including resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.

CONCLUSION

Neoadjuvant gemcitabine-based chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery and adjuvant gemcitabine improves OS compared with upfront surgery and adjuvant gemcitabine in resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.

Estimating the Risk of Severe Peanut Allergy Using Clinical Background and IgE Sensitization Profiles

Background: It is not well-understood why symptom severity varies between patients with peanut allergy (PA). Objective: To gain insight into the clinical profile of subjects with mild-to-moderate and severe PA, and investigate individual and collective predictive accuracy of clinical background and IgE to peanut extract and components for PA severity. Methods: Data on demographics, patient history and sensitization at extract and component level of 393 patients with probable PA (symptoms ≤ 2 h + IgE sensitization) from 12 EuroPrevall centers were analyzed. Univariable and penalized multivariable regression analyses were used to evaluate risk factors and biomarkers for severity. Results: Female sex, age at onset of PA, symptoms elicited by skin contact with peanut, family atopy, atopic dermatitis, house dust mite and latex allergy were independently associated with severe PA; birch pollen allergy with mild-to-moderate PA. The cross-validated AUC of all clinical background determinants combined (0.74) was significantly larger than the AUC of tests for sensitization to extract (0.63) or peanut components (0.54-0.64). Although larger skin prick test wheal size, and higher IgE to peanut extract, Ara h 1 and Ara h 2/6, were associated with severe PA, and higher IgE to Ara h 8 with mild-to-moderate PA, addition of these measurements of sensitization to the clinical background model did not significantly improve the AUC. Conclusions: Models combining clinical characteristics and IgE sensitization patterns can help establish the risk of severe reactions for peanut allergic patients, but clinical background determinants are most valuable for predicting severity of probable PA in an individual patient.

Electrocardiogram-based mortality prediction in patients with COVID-19 using machine learning

Background and purpose

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is frequently obtained in the work-up of COVID-19 patients. So far, no study has evaluated whether ECG-based machine learning models have added value to predict in-hospital mortality specifically in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

Using data from the CAPACITY-COVID registry, we studied 882 patients admitted with COVID-19 across seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Raw format 12-lead ECGs recorded within 72 h of admission were studied. With data from five hospitals (n = 634), three models were developed: (a) a logistic regression baseline model using age and sex, (b) a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model using age, sex and human annotated ECG features, and (c) a pre-trained deep neural network (DNN) using age, sex and the raw ECG waveforms. Data from two hospitals (n = 248) was used for external validation.

Results

Performances for models a, b and c were comparable with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65–0.79), 0.76 (95% CI 0.68–0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) respectively. Predictors of mortality in the LASSO model were age, low QRS voltage, ST depression, premature atrial complexes, sex, increased ventricular rate, and right bundle branch block.

Conclusion

This study shows that the ECG-based prediction models could be helpful for the initial risk stratification of patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and that several ECG abnormalities are associated with in-hospital all-cause mortality of COVID-19 patients. Moreover, this proof-of-principle study shows that the use of pre-trained DNNs for ECG analysis does not underperform compared with time-consuming manual annotation of ECG features.

Supplementary Information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-022-01670-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Abstract 51: Age Stratified Risk Of Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis After Sars-Cov-2 Vaccination

Introduction: Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis (CVST) as a part of the thrombosis and thrombocytopenia syndrome is a rare adverse drug reaction of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The estimated background rate of CVST in adults is around 1 case per million per month, and CVST with thrombocytopenia accounts for 8% of all CVST. We assessed the age-stratified risk of CVST with and without thrombocytopenia after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

Methods: We estimated the absolute risk of any CVST, CVST with thrombocytopenia, and CVST without thrombocytopenia, within 28 days of first dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, using data from the European Medicines Agency’s EudraVigilance database (until 13 June 2021). As a denominator, we used data on vaccine delivery from 31 European countries. For 22.8 million adults from 25 countries we estimated the absolute risk of CVST after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 per age category.

Results: The absolute risk of CVST within 28 days of first dose vaccination was 7.5 (95%CI 6.9-8.3), 0.7 (95%CI 0.2-2.4), 0.6 (95%CI 0.5-0.7) and 0.6 (95%CI 0.3-1.1) per million of first doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, Ad26.COV2.S, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. The absolute risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia within 28 days of first dose vaccination was 4.4 (95%CI 3.9-4.9), 0.7 (95%CI 0.2-2.4), 0.0 (95%CI 0.0-0.1) and 0.0 (95%CI 0.0-0.2) per million of first doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, Ad26.COV2.S, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. In recipients of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, the risk of CVST, both with and without thrombocytopenia, was the highest in the 18-24 years age group (7.3 per million, 95%CI 2.8-18.8 and 3.7, 95%CI 1.0-13.3, respectively). The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia was the lowest in ChAdOx1 nCov-19 recipients ≥70 years (0.2, 95%CI 0.0-1.3). Age <60 compared to ≥60 was a predictor for CVST with thrombocytopenia (incidence rate ratio 5.79; 95%CI 2.98-11.24, p<0.001).

Discussion: The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia within 28 days of first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 was higher in younger age groups. The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia was slightly increased in patients receiving Ad26.COV2.S, comparing with the estimated background risk. The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia was not increased in recipients of mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2.

Differences in SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first and second wave of SARS-CoV-2 between six ethnic groups in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: A population-based longitudinal serological study

BACKGROUND

Surveillance data in high-income countries have reported more frequent SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses in ethnic minority groups. We examined the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 and its determinants in six ethnic groups in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

METHODS

We analysed participants enrolled in the population-based HELIUS cohort, who were tested for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies and answered COVID-19-related questions between June 24-October 9, 2020 (after the first wave) and November 23, 2020-March 31, 2021 (during the second wave). We modelled SARS-CoV-2 incidence from January 1, 2020-March 31, 2021 using Markov models adjusted for age and sex. We compared incidence between ethnic groups over time and identified determinants of incident infection within ethnic groups.

FINDINGS

2,497 participants were tested after the first wave; 2,083 (83·4%) were tested during the second wave. Median age at first visit was 54 years (interquartile range=44-61); 56·6% were female. Compared to Dutch-origin participants (15·9%), cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence was higher in participants of South-Asian Surinamese (25·0%; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1·66; 95%CI=1·16-2·40), African Surinamese (28·9%, aHR=1·97; 95%CI=1·37-2·83), Turkish (37·0%; aHR=2·67; 95%CI=1·89-3·78), Moroccan (41·9%; aHR=3·13; 95%CI=2·22-4·42), and Ghanaian (64·6%; aHR=6·00; 95%CI=4·33-8·30) origin. Compared to those of Dutch origin, differences in incidence became wider during the second versus first wave for all ethnic minority groups (all p-values for interaction<0·05), except Ghanaians. Having household members with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, larger household size, and low health literacy were common determinants of SARS-CoV-2 incidence across groups.

INTERPRETATION

SARS-CoV-2 incidence was higher in the largest ethnic minority groups of Amsterdam, particularly during the second wave. Prevention measures, including vaccination, should be encouraged in these groups.

FUNDING

ZonMw, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Dutch Heart Foundation, European Union, European Fund for the Integration of non-EU immigrants.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence and correlates of six ethnic groups living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: a population-based cross-sectional study, June-October 2020

OBJECTIVES

It has been suggested that ethnic minorities have been disproportionally affected by the COVID-19. We aimed to determine whether prevalence and correlates of past SARS-CoV-2 exposure varied between six ethnic groups in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Participants aged 25-79 years enrolled in the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting population-based prospective cohort (n=16 889) were randomly selected within ethnic groups and invited to participate in a cross-sectional COVID-19 seroprevalence substudy.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We tested participants for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies and collected information on SARS-CoV-2 exposures. We estimated prevalence and correlates of SARS-CoV-2 exposure within ethnic groups using survey-weighted logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and calendar time.

RESULTS

Between 24 June and 9 October 2020, we included 2497 participants. Adjusted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was comparable between ethnic Dutch (24/498; 5.1%, 95% CI 2.8% to 7.4%), South-Asian Surinamese (22/451; 4.9%, 95% CI 2.2% to 7.7%), African Surinamese (22/400; 8.3%, 95% CI 3.1% to 13.6%), Turkish (30/408; 7.9%, 95% CI 4.4% to 11.4%) and Moroccan (32/391; 7.2%, 95% CI 4.2% to 10.1%) participants, but higher among Ghanaians (95/327; 26.3%, 95% CI 18.5% to 34.0%). 57.1% of SARS-CoV-2-positive participants did not suspect or were unsure of being infected, which was lowest in African Surinamese (18.2%) and highest in Ghanaians (90.5%). Correlates of SARS-CoV-2 exposure varied across ethnic groups, while the most common correlate was having a household member suspected of infection. In Ghanaians, seropositivity was associated with older age, larger household sizes, living with small children, leaving home to work and attending religious services.

CONCLUSIONS

No remarkable differences in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence were observed between the largest ethnic groups in Amsterdam after the first wave of infections. The higher infection seroprevalence observed among Ghanaians, which passed mostly unnoticed, warrants wider prevention efforts and opportunities for non-symptom-based testing.

Anti-C5a antibody vilobelimab treatment and the effect on biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in patients with severe COVID-19: a substudy of the phase 2 PANAMO trial

We recently reported in the phase 3 PANAMO trial that selectively blocking complement 5a (C5a) with vilobelimab led to improved survival in critically ill COVID-19 patients. C5a is an important contributor to the innate immune system and can also activate the coagulation system. High C5a levels have been reported in severely ill COVID-19 patients and correlate with disease severity and mortality. Previously, we assessed the potential benefit and safety of vilobelimab in severe COVID-19 patients. In the current substudy of the phase 2 PANAMO trial, we aim to explore the effects of vilobelimab on various biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation. Between March 31 and April 24, 2020, 17 patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in an exploratory, open-label, randomised phase 2 trial. Blood markers of complement, endothelial activation, epithelial barrier disruption, inflammation, neutrophil activation, neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation and coagulopathy were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or utilizing the Luminex platform. During the first 15 days after inclusion, change in biomarker concentrations between the two groups were modelled with linear mixed-effects models with spatial splines and compared. Eight patients were randomized to vilobelimab treatment plus best supportive care (BSC) and nine patients were randomized to BSC only. A significant decrease over time was seen in the vilobelimab plus BSC group for C5a compared to the BSC only group (p < 0.001). ADAMTS13 levels decreased over time in the BSC only group compared to the vilobelimab plus BSC group (p < 0.01) and interleukin-8 (IL-8) levels were statistically more suppressed in the vilobelimab plus BSC group compared to the BSC group (p = 0.03). Our preliminary results show that C5a inhibition decreases the inflammatory response and hypercoagulability, which likely explains the beneficial effect of vilobelimab in severe COVID-19 patients. Validation of these results in a larger sample size is warranted.

Age-Stratified Risk of Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis (CVST) as a part of the thrombosis and thrombocytopenia syndrome is a rare adverse drug reaction of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Estimated background rate of CVST with thrombocytopenia is 0.1 per million per month. We assessed the age-stratified risk of CVST with and without thrombocytopenia after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

METHODS

We estimated the absolute risk of CVST with and without thrombocytopenia within 28 days of first dose of four SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations, using data from the European Medicines Agency's EudraVigilance database (until 13 June 2021). As a denominator, we used data on vaccine delivery from 31 European countries. For 22.8 million adults from 25 countries, we estimated the absolute risk of CVST after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 per age category.

RESULTS

The absolute risk of CVST within 28 days of first dose vaccination was 7.5 (95%CI 6.9-8.3), 0.7 (95%CI 0.2-2.4), 0.6 (95%CI 0.5-0.7) and 0.6 (95%CI 0.3-1.1) per million of first doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, Ad26.COV2.S, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. The absolute risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia within 28 days of first dose vaccination was 4.4 (95%CI 3.9-4.9), 0.7 (95%CI 0.2-2.4), 0.0 (95%CI 0.0-0.1) and 0.0 (95%CI 0.0-0.2) per million of first doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, Ad26.COV2.S, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. In recipients of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, the absolute risk of CVST, both with and without thrombocytopenia, was the highest in the 18-24 years age group (7.3 per million, 95%CI 2.8-18.8 and 3.7 per million, 95%CI 1.0-13.3, respectively). The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia in ChAdOx1 nCov-19 recipients was the lowest in the age group≥70 years (0.2, 95%CI 0.0-1.3). Age <60 compared to ≥60 was a predictor for CVST with thrombocytopenia (incidence rate ratio 5.79; 95%CI 2.98-11.24, p<0.001).

DISCUSSION

The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia within 28 days of first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 was higher in younger age groups. The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia was slightly increased in patients receiving Ad26.COV2.S, compared with the estimated background risk. The risk of CVST with thrombocytopenia was not increased in recipients of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines.

Genome-wide methylation patterns in Marfan syndrome

Background

Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a connective tissue disorder caused by mutations in the Fibrillin-1 gene (FBN1). Here, we undertook the first epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) in patients with MFS aiming at identifying DNA methylation loci associated with MFS phenotypes that may shed light on the disease process.

Methods

The Illumina 450 k DNA-methylation array was used on stored peripheral whole-blood samples of 190 patients with MFS originally included in the COMPARE trial. An unbiased genome-wide approach was used, and methylation of CpG-sites across the entire genome was evaluated. Additionally, we investigated CpG-sites across the FBN1-locus (15q21.1) more closely, since this is the gene defective in MFS. Differentially Methylated Positions (DMPs) and Differentially Methylated Regions (DMRs) were identified through regression analysis. Associations between methylation levels and aortic diameters and presence or absence of 21 clinical features of MFS at baseline were analyzed. Moreover, associations between aortic diameter change, and the occurrence of clinical events (death any cause, type-A or -B dissection/rupture, or aortic surgery) and methylation levels were analyzed.

Results

We identified 28 DMPs that are significantly associated with aortic diameters in patients with MFS. Seven of these DMPs (25%) could be allocated to a gene that was previously associated with cardiovascular diseases (HDAC4, IGF2BP3, CASZ1, SDK1, PCDHGA1, DIO3, PTPRN2). Moreover, we identified seven DMPs that were significantly associated with aortic diameter change and five DMP’s that associated with clinical events. No significant associations at p < 10^–8 or p < 10^–6 were found with any of the non-cardiovascular phenotypic MFS features. Investigating DMRs, clusters were seen mostly on X- and Y, and chromosome 18–22. The remaining DMRs indicated involvement of a large family of protocadherins on chromosome 5, which were not reported in MFS before.

Conclusion

This EWAS in patients with MFS has identified a number of methylation loci significantly associated with aortic diameters, aortic dilatation rate and aortic events. Our findings add to the slowly growing literature on the regulation of gene expression in MFS patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-021-01204-4.

Evaluation of the Khorana, PROTECHT, and 5-SNP scores for prediction of venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer

BACKGROUND

The Khorana score is a validated tool to identify cancer patients at higher risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE).

OBJECTIVE

We compared its predictive performance to that of the clinical PROTECHT and the polygenic 5-SNP scores in patients who participated in the Dutch CPCT-02 study.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Data on VTE and its risk factors were retrospectively collected for 2729 patients with advanced stage solid tumors planned for systemic cancer treatment. Patients were followed for 6 months. Overall discriminatory performance of the scores was evaluated by time-dependent c-indices. The scores were additionally evaluated dichotomously in competing risk models.

RESULTS

A total of 160 (5.9%) patients developed VTE during follow-up. Time-dependent c-indices at 6 months for the Khorana, PROTECHT, and 5-SNP scores were 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55-0.60), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.57-0.62), and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.51-0.57), respectively. The dichotomous scores classified 9.6%, 16.8%, and 9.5% as high-risk, respectively. VTE risk was about 2-fold higher among high-risk patients than low-risk patients for the Khorana (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-3.0), PROTECHT (SHR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-3.0), and 5-SNP scores (SHR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.03-2.8). The sensitivity at 6 months was 16.6% (95% CI: 10.5-22.7), 28.9% (95% CI: 21.5-36.3), and 14.9% (95% CI: 8.5-21.2), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Performance of the PROTECHT or 5-SNP score was not superior to that of the Khorana score. The majority of cancer patients who developed VTE during 6-month follow-up were not identified by these scores. Future directions for studies on cancer-associated VTE prediction may include combined clinical-genetic scores.

Statin therapy and lipoprotein(a) levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS 

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a causal and independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). People with elevated Lp(a) are often prescribed statins as they also often show elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. While statins are well-established in lowering LDL-C, their effect on Lp(a) remains unclear. We evaluated the effect of statins compared to placebo on Lp(a) and the effects of different types and intensities of statin therapy on Lp(a).

METHODS AND RESULTS 

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials with a statin and placebo arm. Medline and EMBASE were searched until August 2019. Quality assessment of studies was done using Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (RoB 2). Mean difference of absolute and percentage changes of Lp(a) in the statin vs. the placebo arms were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. We compared effects of different types and intensities of statin therapy using subgroup- and network meta-analyses. Certainty of the evidence was determined using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). Overall, 39 studies (24 448 participants) were included. Mean differences (95% confidence interval) of absolute and percentage changes in the statin vs. the placebo arms were 1.1 mg/dL (0.5-1.6, P < 0.0001) and 0.1% (-3.6% to 4.0%, P = 0.95), respectively (moderate-certainty evidence). None of the types of statins changed Lp(a) significantly compared to placebo (very low- to high-certainty evidence), as well as intensities of statin therapy (low- to moderate-certainty evidence).

CONCLUSION 

Statin therapy does not lead to clinically important differences in Lp(a) compared to placebo in patients at risk for CVD. Our findings suggest that in these patients, statin therapy will not change Lp(a)-associated CVD risk.

Alert system-supported lay defibrillation and basic life-support for cardiac arrest at home

Aims

Automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are placed in public, but the majority of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) occur at home.

Methods and results

In residential areas, 785 AEDs were placed and 5735 volunteer responders were recruited. For suspected OHCA, dispatchers activated nearby volunteer responders with text messages, directing two-thirds to an AED first and one-third directly to the patient. We analysed survival (primary outcome) and neurologically favourable survival to discharge, time to first defibrillation shock, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) before Emergency Medical Service (EMS) arrival of patients in residences found with ventricular fibrillation (VF), before and after introduction of this text-message alert system. Survival from OHCAs in residences increased from 26% to 39% {adjusted relative risk (RR) 1.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–2.0]}. RR for neurologically favourable survival was 1.4 (95% CI: 0.99–2.0). No CPR before ambulance arrival decreased from 22% to 9% (RR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3–0.7). Text-message-responders with AED administered shocks to 16% of all patients in VF in residences, while defibrillation by EMS decreased from 73% to 39% in residences (P < 0.001). Defibrillation by first responders in residences increased from 22 to 40% (P < 0.001). Use of public AEDs in residences remained unchanged (6% and 5%) (P = 0.81). Time from emergency call to defibrillation decreased from median 11.7 to 9.3 min; mean difference –2.6 (95% CI: –3.5 to –1.6).

Conclusion

Introducing volunteer responders directed to AEDs, dispatched by text-message was associated with significantly reduced time to first defibrillation, increased bystander CPR and increased overall survival for OHCA patients in residences found with VF.

Aortic distensibility in Marfan syndrome: a potential predictor of aortic events?

Objectives

Patients with Marfan syndrome (MFS) are prone to develop aortic aneurysms due to fragmentation of elastic fibres, resulting in reduced distensibility of the aorta. Reduced distensibility was previously shown to predict progressive descending aorta dilatation. Here, we investigated longitudinal changes in distensibility, as a potential predictor of aortic events.

Methods

This retrospective study included all patients with MFS with at least four cardiac magnetic resonance examinations performed between 1996 and 2012. Aortic distensibility was assessed, in the ascending (level 1), proximal descending (level 2) and distal descending (level 3) aorta. Changes in distensibility were studied using linear mixed-effects regression models.

Results

In total, 35 patients with MFS (age at inclusion 28 (IQR 23–32) years, 54% men) were included. Mean aortic distensibility was already low (between 2.9×10^–3/mm Hg/year and 6.4×10^–3/mm Hg/year) at all levels at baseline, and significantly decreased over time at levels 2 and 3 (respectively, p=0.012 and p=0.002). The rate of distensibility loss per year (×10^-3/mm Hg/year) was 0.01, 0.03 and 0.06×10^–3/mm Hg at levels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. At inclusion, men exhibited very low distensibility, whereas women showed moderately reduced distensibility, gradually decreasing with age.

Aortic dilatation rate at level 2 was associated with reduced aortic distensibility. However, we could not demonstrate a direct correlation between distensibility and clinical events during a follow-up of 22 years.

Conclusion

Patients with MFS display reduced aortic distensibility already at an early age, inversely relating to aortic dilatation rate. However, in this selected patient group, distensibility seems less suitable as an individual predictor of aortic events.

A comparison of over-the-counter available smartwatches and devices for electrocardiogram based detection of atrial fibrillation

Background

There is an increasing number of smartwatches and devices commercially available that can generate and automatically interpret an electrocardiogram (ECG). Such devices have an enormous potential to improve population screening and telemonitoring of atrial fibrillation (AF).

Purpose

There is limited data on the sensitivity, specificity and interpretability of these devices and comparative studies are lacking. Our purpose was to compare three frequently used devices for AF detection.

Methods

We performed a single-center, prospective study in consecutive patients with AF presenting for electrical cardioversion (ECV). We collected a standard 12-lead ECG recording immediately followed by four times 30 seconds of ECG recordings from different devices for every patient prior to the ECV. These paired measurements were considered simultaneous. If the ECV was performed, the same measurements were repeated afterwards. The standard 12L-ECGs were interpreted by a cardiologist and used as golden standard for heart rhythm. The different devices used for the 30 second ECGs were: Withings Move ECG (lead I), Apple Watch series 5 (lead I), Kardia Mobile 6L (six leads) and Withings/Apple (1:1 ratio) on left knee (lead II). Sensitivity and specificity were determined for each AF detection algorithm excluding patients with atrial flutter (AFL) or uninterpretable ECGs. In addition, proportions of uninterpretable ECGs were determined including all patients and including only patients with sinus rhythm (SR) and compared between devices using McNemar's test.

Results

A total of 220 patients were included (age 70±10 years, female 35%, first ECV 44%) and in total 415 12-lead ECGs were performed (45% SR, 45% AF, 10% AFL). The sensitivity/specificity were overall similar for all devices (Withings 98%/95%, Apple 94%/98%, Kardia 99%/91%. P&gt;0.05 for all). In detail, Kardia was the most sensitive test with highest proportion of suspected AF (57%) whereas Apple was the most specific, as shown by the highest proportion of normal heart rate results by the device (55%, P=0.003 compared to Kardia (43%)). Overall, Withings, Apple and Kardia had a comparable proportion of uninterpretable ECGs (20%, 20%, 24%, respectively. P&gt;0.05 for all). Lead II had higher proportion of uninterpretable ECGs (32%, p&lt;0.01 compared to all). More specifically, Kardia had a higher rate of uninterpretable ECGs in those with SR (P&lt;0.05 compared to Withings (lead I) and Apple (lead I)).

Conclusion

In all devices, we found sensitivity/specificity for AF detection between 91%-99%, better than previous studies reported, and 20–24% of uninterpretable ECGs. Kardia was the most sensitive device, but less useful to rule out atrial fibrillation whereas Apple had numerically highest specificity. We aim to further evaluate both cardiologist interpretation and accuracy of atrial flutter detection using different leads to inform clinical use.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Tergooi Cardiology department, J.P. Bokma was supported with a research grant by Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences Overview and comparison

Longitudinal changes in aortic distensibility in patients with Marfan syndrome

Background

Patients with Marfan syndrome (MFS) may develop aortic dissection due to progressive dilatation in the entire aorta. Increased aortic stiffness, i.e.a. decreased distensibility has been shown to often precede these dismal sequelae. Therefore, we investigated longitudinal changes in aortic distensibility throughout the entire aorta by means of Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging in patients with MFS.

Methods

This retrospective study included all MFS patients with four CMR examinations performed between 1996 and 2012. Aortic distensibility was measured and calculated by a single analyst, in the ascending, proximal- and distal descending, and abdominal aorta. Changes in distensibility were studied using linear mixed-effects regression models. Furthermore, we investigated the association between distensibility and age, sex, blood pressure, medication use, FBN1 mutation type, and previous aortic root surgery.

Results

In total, 35 MFS patients (age at inclusion 28 [IQR 23–32] years, 54% male) were included. Mean aortic distensibility was low in the ascending and proximal descending aorta (resp. 3.25±1.87, 3.91±1.73x10–3 mmHg–1) at the first scan. Distensibility decreased significantly over time at level 2, 3, and 4 (resp. p=0.021, p=0.002, p=0.038) (Figure 1). The rate of distensibility loss per year (x10–3 mmHg–1/year) was respectively 0.04 and 0.06 in the proximal- and distal descending aorta.

Men seemed to have a lower but more stable distensibility, whereas women showed a higher distensibility at younger age, but a faster deterioration rate over time (difference in distensibility loss per year between men and women: 0.08, p=0.038). Distensibility did not correlate significantly with medication use, FBN1 mutation type or previous aortic root surgery.

Conclusion

Patients with MFS have low distensibility at all levels of the aorta at young age, which keeps decreasing over time. Men had lower distensibility at younger age than women. Distensibility was stably low in men, while still deteriorating over time in women.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): AMC FoundationHorstingstuit Foundation

A Bayesian Negative Binomial Hierarchical Model for Identifying Diet-Gut Microbiome Associations

The human gut microbiota composition plays an important role in human health. Long-term diet intervention may shape human gut microbiome. Therefore, many studies focus on discovering links between long-term diets and gut microbiota composition. This study aimed to incorporate the phylogenetic relationships between the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) into the diet-microbe association analysis, using a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial (NB) model. We regularized the dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution by assuming a mean-dispersion association. A simulation study showed that, if over-dispersion is present in the microbiome data, our approach performed better in terms of mean squared error (MSE) of the slope-estimates compared to the standard NB regression model or a Bayesian hierarchical NB model without including the phylogenetic relationships. Data of the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting (HELIUS) study showed that for some phylogenetic families the (posterior) variances of the slope-estimates were decreasing when including the phylogenetic relationships into the analyses. In contrast, when OTUs of the same family were not similarly affected by the food item, some bias was introduced, leading to larger (posterior) variances of the slope-estimates. Overall, the Bayesian hierarchical NB model, with a dependency between the mean and dispersion parameters, proved to be a robust method for analyzing diet-microbe associations.