Changes in the global hospitalisation burden of respiratory syncytial virus in young children during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is reported to have affected the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to assess the hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in children younger than 5 years during the pandemic period and the possible changes in RSV epidemiology from a global perspective.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search for studies published between Jan 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022, in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, the WHO COVID-19 Research Database, CINAHL, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, WanFang, and CqVip. We included unpublished data on RSV epidemiology shared by international collaborators. Eligible studies reported data on at least one of the following measures for children (aged <5 years) hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI: hospital admission rates, in-hospital case fatality ratio, and the proportion of hospitalised children requiring supplemental oxygen or requiring mechanical ventilation or admission to intensive care. We used a generalised linear mixed-effects model for data synthesis to measure the changes in the incidence, age distribution, and disease severity of children hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI during the pandemic, compared with the year 2019.

FINDINGS

We included 61 studies from 19 countries, of which 14 (23%) studies were from the published literature (4052 identified records) and 47 (77%) were from unpublished datasets. Most (51 [84%]) studies were from high-income countries; nine (15%) were from upper-middle-income countries, one (2%) was from a lower-middle-income country (Kenya), and none were from a low-income country. 15 studies contributed to the estimates of hospitalisation rate and 57 studies contributed to the severity analyses. Compared with 2019, the rates of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation in all children (aged 0-60 months) in 2020 decreased by 79·7% (325 000 cases vs 66 000 cases) in high-income countries, 13·8% (581 000 cases vs 501 000 cases) in upper-middle-income countries, and 42·3% (1 378 000 cases vs 795 000 cases) in Kenya. In high-income countries, annualised rates started to rise in 2021, and by March, 2022, had returned to a level similar to 2019 (6·0 cases per 1000 children [95% uncertainty interval 5·4-6·8] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 5·0 cases per 1000 children [3·6-6·8] in 2019). By contrast, in middle-income countries, rates remained lower in the latest period with data available than in 2019 (for upper-middle-income countries, 2·1 cases [0·7-6·1] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 3·4 [1·2-9·7] in 2019; for Kenya, 2·2 cases [1·8-2·7] in 2021 vs 4·1 [3·5-4·7] in 2019). Across all time periods and income regions, hospitalisation rates peaked in younger infants (aged 0 to <3 months) and decreased with increasing age. A significantly higher proportion of children aged 12-24 months were hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI in high-income and upper-middle-income countries during the pandemic years than in 2019, with odds ratios ranging from 1·30 (95% uncertainty interval 1·07-1·59) to 2·05 (1·66-2·54). No consistent changes in disease severity were observed.

INTERPRETATION

The hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years was significantly reduced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rebound in hospitalisation rates to pre-pandemic rates observed in the high-income region but not in the middle-income region by March, 2022, suggests a persistent negative impact of the pandemic on health-care systems and health-care access in the middle-income region. RSV surveillance needs to be established (or re-established) to monitor changes in RSV epidemiology, particularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe (PROMISE), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.

Early estimates of nirsevimab immunoprophylaxis effectiveness against hospital admission for respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections in infants, Spain, October 2023 to January 2024

The monoclonal antibody nirsevimab was at least 70% effective in preventing hospitalisations in infants with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) positive for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Spain (Oct 2023-Jan 2024), where a universal immunisation programme began late September (coverage range: 79-99%). High protection was confirmed by two methodological designs (screening and test-negative) in a multicentre active surveillance in nine hospitals in three regions. No protection against RSV-negative LRTI-hospitalisations was shown. These interim results could guide public-health decision-making.

Protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation conferred by primary-series vaccination with AZD1222 in non-boosted individuals: first vaccine effectiveness results of the European COVIDRIVE study and meta-regression analysis

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies with long-term follow-up are needed to understand durability of protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes conferred by primary-series vaccination in individuals not receiving boosters. COVIDRIVE is a European public-private partnership evaluating brand-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE). We report a prespecified interim analysis of primary-series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) VE.

Methods

Seven Study Contributors in Europe collected data on individuals aged ≥18 years who were hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (June 1st, 2021-September 5th, 2022) and eligible for COVID-19 vaccination prior to hospitalisation. In this test-negative case-control study, individuals were defined as test-positive cases or test-negative controls (SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR) and were either fully vaccinated (two AZD1222 doses, 4-12 weeks apart, completed ≥14 days prior to symptom onset; no booster doses) or unvaccinated (no COVID-19 vaccine prior to hospitalisation). The primary objective was to estimate AZD1222 VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation. A literature review and meta-regression were conducted to contextualise findings on durability of protection.

Findings

761 individuals were included during the 15-month analysis period. Overall AZD1222 VE estimate was 72.8% (95% CI, 53.4-84.1). VE was 93.8% (48.6-99.3) in participants who received second AZD1222 doses ≤8 weeks prior to hospitalisation, with spline-based VE estimates demonstrating protection (VE ≥ 50%) 30 weeks post-second dose. Meta-regression analysis (data from seven publications) showed consistent results, with ≥80% protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation through ∼43 weeks post-second dose, with some degree of waning.

Interpretation

Primary-series AZD1222 vaccination confers protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation with enduring levels of VE through ≥6 months.

Funding

AstraZeneca.

Brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness for the 2021-2022 season in Europe: results from the DRIVE multi-stakeholder study platform

Introduction

Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) was a European public-private partnership (PPP) that aimed to provide annual, brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) for regulatory and public health purposes. DRIVE was launched in 2017 under the umbrella of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) and conducted IVE studies from its pilot season in 2017-2018 to its final season in 2021-2022.

Methods

In 2021-2022, DRIVE conducted four primary care-based test-negative design (TND) studies (Austria, Italy, Iceland, and England; involving >1,000 general practitioners), nine hospital-based TND studies (France, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Spain, for a total of 21 hospitals), and one population-based cohort study in Finland. In the TND studies, patients with influenza-like illness (primary care) or severe acute respiratory infection (hospital) were enrolled, and laboratory tested for influenza using RT-PCR. Study contributor-specific IVE was calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time, and pooled by meta-analysis.

Results

In 2021-2022, pooled confounder-adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) estimates against laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) overall and per type and subtype/lineage was produced, albeit with wide confidence intervals (CI). The limited circulation of influenza in Europe did not allow the network to reach the optimal sample size to produce precise IVE estimates for all the brands included. The most significant IVE estimates were 76% (95% CI 23%-93%) for any vaccine and 81% (22%-95%) for Vaxigrip Tetra in adults ≥65 years old and 64% (25%-83%) for Fluenz Tetra in children (TND primary care setting), 85% (12%-97%) for any vaccine in adults 18-64 years (TND hospital setting), and 38% (1%-62%) in children 6 months-6 years (population-based cohort, mixed setting).

Discussion

Over five seasons, DRIVE collected data on >35,000 patients, more than 60 variables, and 13 influenza vaccines. DRIVE demonstrated that estimating brand-specific IVE across Europe is possible, but achieving sufficient sample size to obtain precise estimates for all relevant stratifications remains a challenge. Finally, DRIVE's network of study contributors and lessons learned have greatly contributed to the development of the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness platform COVIDRIVE.

Background rates of 41 adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines in 10 European healthcare databases - an ACCESS cohort study

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the ACCESS (The vACCine covid-19 monitoring readinESS) project was launched to prepare real-world monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines. Within this project, this study aimed to generate background incidence rates of 41 adverse events of special interest (AESI) to contextualize potential safety signals detected following administration of COVID-19 vaccines.

METHODS

A dynamic cohort study was conducted using a distributed data network of 10 healthcare databases from 7 European countries (Italy, Spain, Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, France and United Kingdom) over the period 2017 to 2020. A common protocol (EUPAS37273), common data model, and common analytics programs were applied for syntactic, semantic and analytical harmonization. Incidence rates (IR) for each AESI and each database were calculated by age and sex by dividing the number of incident cases by the total person-time at risk. Age-standardized rates were pooled using random effect models according to the provenance of the events.

FINDINGS

A total number of 63,456,074 individuals were included in the study, contributing to 211.7 million person-years. A clear age pattern was observed for most AESIs, rates also varied by provenance of disease diagnosis (primary care, specialist care). Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia rates were extremely low ranging from 0.06 to 4.53/100,000 person-years for cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) with thrombocytopenia (TP) and mixed venous and arterial thrombosis with TP, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Given the nature of the AESIs and the setting (general practitioners or hospital-based databases or both), background rates from databases that show the highest level of completeness (primary care and specialist care) should be preferred, others can be used for sensitivity. The study was designed to ensure representativeness to the European population and generalizability of the background incidence rates.

FUNDING

The project has received support from the European Medicines Agency under the Framework service contract nr EMA/2018/28/PE.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400).

FINDINGS

In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

INTERPRETATION

RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

Predictors of influenza severity among hospitalized adults with laboratory confirmed influenza: Analysis of nine influenza seasons from the Valencia region, Spain

Purpose

Influenza hospitalizations contribute substantially to healthcare disruption. We explored the impact of ageing, comorbidities and other risk factors to better understand associations with severe clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with influenza.

Methods

We analysed multi‐season data from adults ≥18 years, hospitalized with laboratory‐confirmed influenza in Valencia, Spain. Severity was defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, assisted ventilation and/or death. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between risk factors and severity. Rate of hospital discharge was analysed with a cumulative incidence function.

Results

Only 26% of influenza patients had their primary discharge diagnosis coded as influenza. Comorbidities were associated with severity among adults aged 50–79 years, with the highest odds ratio (OR) in patients with ≥3 comorbidities aged 50–64 years (OR = 6.7; 95% CI: 1.0–44.6). Morbid obesity and functional dependencies were also identified risk factors (ORs varying from 3 to 5 depending on age). The presence of increasing numbers of comorbidities was associated with prolonged hospital stay.

Conclusions

Influenza clinical outcomes are aggravated by the presence of comorbidities and ageing. Increased awareness of influenza among hospitalized patients could prompt clinical and public health interventions to reduce associated burden.

Role of age and birth month in infants hospitalized with RSV-confirmed disease in the Valencia Region, Spain

Background

RSV is the leading cause of hospital admissions in infants and the principal cause of bronchiolitis in young children. There is a lack of granular data on RSV‐associated hospitalization per season using laboratory confirmed results. Our current study addresses this issue and intends to fill this gap.

Methods

The study was conducted from 2014 through 2018, in 4 to 10 hospitals in the Valencia Region, Spain. Infants included in this study were admitted in hospital through the Emergency Department with a respiratory complaint and tested by RT‐PCR for RSV in a central laboratory.

Results

Incidence rates of RSV‐associated hospitalization varied by season and hospital. Overall, the highest incidence rates were observed in 2017/2018. RSV‐associated hospitalization was highest in infants below 3 months of age and in those born before or at the beginning of the RSV season. Almost 54% of total infants hospitalized with laboratory confirmed RSV were found to be born outside the season, from April to October. The RSV positivity rate by ICD‐10 discharged codes varied by season and age with results from 48% to 57% among LRI (J09‐J22).

Conclusion

The study was instrumental in bringing forth the time unpredictability of RSV epidemics, the critical impact of age, and the comparable distribution of RSV‐associated hospitalization in infants born on either side of the RSV season. These data could help in better characterization of the population that drives the healthcare burden and is crucial for the development of future immunization strategies, especially with upcoming vaccines in against RSV.

Retrospective screening for SARS-CoV-2 among influenza-like illness hospitalizations: 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons, Valencia region, Spain

On 9 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Programme (GIP) asked participant sites on the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) to contribute to data collection concerning severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). We re‐analysed 5833 viral RNA archived samples collected prospectively from hospital admissions for influenza‐like illness (ILI) in the Valencia Region of Spain by the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses (VAHNSI) network (four hospitals, catchment area population 1 118 732) during the pre‐pandemic 2018/2019 (n = 4010) and pandemic 2019/2020 (n = 1823) influenza seasons for the presence of SARS‐CoV‐2. We did not find evidence for community‐acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in hospital admissions for ILI in our region before early March 2020.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age.

METHODS

We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570).

FINDINGS

203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome.

INTERPRETATION

We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and Waning Effect in Hospitalized Older Adults. Valencia Region, Spain, 2018/2019 Season

Influenza vaccination is annually recommended for specific populations at risk, such as older adults. We estimated the 2018/2019 influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) overall, by influenza subtype, type of vaccine, and by time elapsed since vaccination among subjects 65 years old or over in a multicenter prospective study in the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses (VAHNSI, Spain). Information about potential confounders was obtained from clinical registries and/or by interviewing patients and vaccination details were only ascertained by registries. A test-negative design was performed in order to estimate IVE. As a result, IVE was estimated at 46% (95% confidence interval (CI): (16%, 66%)), 41% (95% CI: (−34%, 74%)), and 45% (95% CI: (7%, 67%)) against overall influenza, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. An intra-seasonal not relevant waning effect was detected. The IVE for the adjuvanted vaccine in ≥75 years old was 45% (2%, 69%) and for the non-adjuvanted vaccine in 65–74 years old was 59% (−16%, 86%). Thus, our data revealed moderate vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) and not significant against A(H1N1)pdm09. Significant protection was conferred by the adjuvanted vaccine to patients ≥75 years old. Moreover, an intra-seasonal not relevant waning effect was detected, and a not significant IVE decreasing trend was observed over time.

Challenges and Adaptation of a European Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Study Platform in Response to the COVID-19 Emergence: Experience from the DRIVE Project

The Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) project is a public-private partnership aiming to build capacity in Europe for yearly estimation of brand-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE). DRIVE is a five-year project funded by IMI (Innovative Medicines Initiative). It was initiated as a response to the guidance on influenza vaccines by EMA (European Medicines Agency), which advised vaccine manufacturers to work with public health institutes to set up a joint IVE study platform. The COVID-19 pandemic reached Europe in February 2020 and overlapped with the 2019/2020 influenza season only in the last weeks. However, several elements of the DRIVE study network were impacted. The pandemic specifically affected the study sites' routines and the subsequent assessment of the 2019/20 influenza season. Moreover, the current social distancing measures and lockdown policies across Europe are expected to also limit the circulation of influenza for the 2020/21 season, and therefore the impact of COVID-19 will be higher than in the season 2019/20. Consequently, DRIVE has planned to adapt its study platform to the COVID-19 challenge, encompassing several COVID-19 particularities in the study procedures, data collection and IVE analysis for the 2020/21 season. DRIVE will study the feasibility of implementing these COVID-19 components and establish the foundations of future COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness studies.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza in hospitalised adults aged 60 years or older, Valencia Region, Spain, 2017/18 influenza season

Introduction

Influenza immunisation is recommended for elderly people each season. The influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies annually due to influenza viruses evolving and the vaccine composition.

Aim

To estimate, in inpatients ≥ 60 years old, the 2017/18 trivalent IVE, overall, by vaccine type and by strain. The impact of vaccination in any of the two previous seasons (2016/17 and 2015/16) on current (2017/18) IVE was also explored.

Methods

This was a multicentre prospective observational study within the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and Respiratory Viruses Disease (VAHNSI, Spain). The test-negative design was applied taking laboratory-confirmed influenza as outcome and vaccination status as main exposure. Information about potential confounders was obtained from clinical registries and/or by interviewing patients; vaccine information was only ascertained by registries.

Results

Overall, 2017/18 IVE was 9.9% (95% CI: −15.5 to 29.6%), and specifically, 48.3% (95% CI: 13.5% to 69.1%), −29.9% (95% CI: −79.1% to 5.8%) and 25.7% (95% CI: −8.8% to 49.3%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata lineage, respectively. For the adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted vaccines, overall IVE was 10.0% (95% CI: −24.4% to 34.9%) and 7.8% (95% CI: −23.1% to 31.0%) respectively. Prior vaccination significantly protected against influenza B/Yamagata lineage (IVE: 50.2%; 95% CI: 2.3% to 74.6%) in patients not vaccinated in the current season. For those repeatedly vaccinated against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, IVE was 46.4% (95% CI: 6.8% to 69.2%).

Conclusion

Our data revealed low vaccine effectiveness against influenza in hospitalised patients ≥60 years old in 2017/18. Prior vaccination protected against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Yamagata-lineage.

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.

METHODS

We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza epidemiology and influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2015-2016 season: results from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network is an international platform whose primary objective is to study severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization.

METHODS

During the 2015-2016 influenza season, 11 sites in the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network in nine countries (Russian Federation, Czech Republic, Turkey, France, China, Spain, Mexico, India, and Brazil) participated in a prospective, active-surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study. Influenza infection was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated using a test-negative approach.

RESULTS

9882 patients with laboratory results were included of which 2415 (24.4%) were positive for influenza, including 1415 (14.3%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 235 (2.4%) for A(H3N2), 180 (1.8%) for A not subtyped, 45 (0.5%) for B/Yamagata-lineage, 532 (5.4%) for B/Victoria-lineage, and 33 (0.3%) for B not subtyped. Of included admissions, 39% were < 5 years of age and 67% had no underlying conditions. The odds of being admitted with influenza were higher among pregnant than non-pregnant women (odds ratio, 2.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.90 to 4.19]). Adjusted IVE against influenza-related hospitalization was 16.3% (95% CI, 0.4 to 29.7). Among patients targeted for influenza vaccination, adjusted IVE against hospital admission with influenza was 16.2% (95% CI, - 3.6 to 32.2) overall, 23.0% (95% CI, - 3.3 to 42.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09, and - 25.6% (95% CI, - 86.3 to 15.4) against B/Victoria lineage.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2015-2016 influenza season was dominated by A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Victoria-lineage. Hospitalization with influenza often occurred in healthy and young individuals, and pregnant women were at increased risk of influenza-related hospitalization. Influenza vaccines provided low to moderate protection against hospitalization with influenza and no protection against the predominant circulating B lineage, highlighting the need for more effective and broader influenza vaccines.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing hospitalisation of individuals 60 years of age and over with laboratory-confirmed influenza, Valencia Region, Spain, influenza season 2016/17

Seasonal influenza vaccination is widely recommended for people with risk factors, especially for people who are elderly. However, influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies year after year because of the variable antigenic composition of the circulating viruses and the vaccine composition. Methods: We summarise the results of IVE and the impact of previous vaccination among subjects 60 years of age and over in a multicentre prospective study in the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and Respiratory Viruses Disease (VAHNSI) in Spain. We applied the test-negative design taking laboratory-confirmed influenza as outcome and vaccination status as exposure. Information about potential confounders was obtained from clinical registries or directly from patients. Results: Adjusted IVE was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI): −15 to 43). For patients vaccinated in the current season but not in the two previous seasons, effectiveness was 49% (95% CI: −20 to 78) and for patients vaccinated in the current and any of two previous seasons, effectiveness was 29% (95% CI: −3 to 52). For those patients not vaccinated in the current season but vaccinated in any of the two previous seasons, effectiveness was 53% (95% CI: 8 to 76). Conclusions: Our data show a low vaccine effectiveness for the 2016/17 influenza season.

Epidemiology of influenza in pregnant women hospitalized with respiratory illness in Moscow, 2012/2013-2015/2016: a hospital-based active surveillance study

Background

To better understand the impact of seasonal influenza in pregnant women we analyzed data collected during four seasons at a hospital for acute respiratory infection that specializes in treating pregnant women.

Methods

This was a single-center active surveillance study of women 15–44 years of age hospitalized for acute respiratory diseases between 2012/2013 and 2015/2016 in Moscow, Russian Federation. Women had to have been hospitalized within 7 days of the onset of symptoms. Swabs were taken within 48 h of admission, and influenza was detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction.

Results

During the four seasons, of the 1992 hospitalized women 1748 were pregnant. Laboratory-confirmed influenza was detected more frequently in pregnant women (825/1748; 47.2%) than non-pregnant women (58/244; 23.8%) (OR for influenza = 2.87 [95% CI, 2.10–3.92]; p <  0.001). This pattern was homogenous across seasons (p = 0.112 by test of homogeneity of equal odds). Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant strain in 2012/2013, A(H3N2) in 2013/2014, B/Yamagata lineage and A(H3N2) in 2014/2015, and A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2015/2016. Influenza-positive pregnant admissions went to the hospital sooner than influenza-negative pregnant admissions (p <  0.001). The risk of influenza increased by 2% with each year of age and was higher in women with underlying conditions (OR = 1.52 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.99]). Pregnant women positive for influenza were homogeneously distributed by trimester (p = 0.37 for homogeneity; p = 0.49 for trend). Frequencies of stillbirth, delivery, preterm delivery, and caesarean delivery did not significantly differ between influenza-positive and influenza-negative hospitalized pregnant women or between subtypes/lineages.

Conclusions

Pregnant women are at increased risk for hospitalization due to influenza irrespective of season, circulating viruses, or trimester.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-019-2192-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Low influenza vaccine effectiveness and the effect of previous vaccination in preventing admission with A(H1N1)pdm09 or B/Victoria-Lineage in patients 60 years old or older during the 2015/2016 influenza season

BACKGROUND

The 2015/2016 influenza season was characterized in Europe by the circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 clade 6B.1 and B/Victoria-lineage influenza viruses. The components of the vaccines used in the current and past two seasons in the Valencia region were similar but not well matched to the 2015/2016 dominant influenza-circulating strains. We estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) and interference of previous vaccination in preventing admission with A(H1N1)pdm09 or B/Victoria-lineage in this particular season.

METHODS

The Valencia Hospital Network for the Study of Influenza runs an active surveillance hospital-based study to collect clinical and virological data from consecutive admissions possibly related to influenza. Combined nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs are analyzed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, and the hemagglutinin is sequenced in a sample of positive influenza specimens. Vaccination is ascertained consulting a population vaccine information system. We estimate IVE using a test-negative approach.

RESULTS

During the 2015-2016 season, we recruited 1049 eligible admissions of patients 60 years or older, and 187 tested positive for influenza. The adjusted IVE in preventing admission with A(H1N1)pdm09 was 20.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)  -21.3-47.5% and -33.2%; 95% CI, -140.1-26.1% in preventing admission with B/Victoria-lineage. The majority of A(H1N1)pdm09 sequenced viruses belonged to the emerging 6B.1 subclade, defined by S162N and I216T mutations in the hemagglutinin protein. When we restricted our analysis to those not vaccinated in the previous year, unadjusted IVE was 84.9% (95% CI 9.9-100.0) overall, 77.9% (-32.7-100.0%) in preventing A(H1N1)pdm09 and 48.8% (-219.5-100.0%) in preventing B/Yamagata-lineage admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that IVE was low in preventing A(H1N1)pdm09 and strongly correlated with vaccination in the previous season. No effect in preventing admission with B/Victoria-lineage was observed. For the 2015/2016 season, IVE was low due to a mismatch and lack of concordance between the circulating and vaccine viruses.

Waning protection of influenza vaccination during four influenza seasons, 2011/2012 to 2014/2015

BACKGROUND

Concerns have been raised about intraseasonal waning of the protection conferred by influenza vaccination.

METHODS

During four influenza seasons, we consecutively recruited individuals aged 18years or older who had received seasonal influenza vaccine and were subsequently admitted to the hospital for influenza infection, asassessed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. We estimated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of influenza infection by date of vaccination, defined by tertiles, as early, intermediate or late vaccination. We used a test-negative approach with early vaccination as reference to estimate the aOR of hospital admission with influenza among late vaccinees. We conducted sensitivity analyses by means of conditional logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and using days between vaccination and hospital admission rather than vaccination date.

RESULTS

Among 3615 admitted vaccinees, 822 (23%) were positive for influenza. We observed a lower risk of influenza among late vaccinees during the 2011/2012 and 2014/2015A(H3N2)-dominant seasons: aOR=0.68 (95% CI: 0.47-1.00) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.50-0.95). We found no differences in the risk of admission with influenza among late versus early vaccinees in the 2012/2013A(H1N1)pdm09-dominant or 2013/2014B/Yamagata lineage-dominant seasons: aOR=1.18 (95% CI: 0.58-2.41) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.56-1.72). When we restricted our analysis to individuals aged 65years or older, we found a statistically significant lower risk of admission with influenza among late vaccinees during the 2011/2012 and 2014/2015A(H3N2)-dominant seasons: aOR=0.61 (95% CI: 0.41-0.91) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.49-0.96). We observed 39% (95% CI: 9-59%) and 31% (95% CI: 5-50%) waning of vaccine effectiveness among participants aged 65years or older during the two A(H3N2)-dominant seasons. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Waning of vaccine protection was observed among individuals aged 65years old or over in two A(H3N2)-dominant influenza seasons.

Epidemiology of Hospital Admissions with Influenza during the 2013/2014 Northern Hemisphere Influenza Season: Results from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network was established in 2012 to obtain valid epidemiologic data on hospital admissions with influenza-like illness. Here we describe the epidemiology of admissions with influenza within the Northern Hemisphere sites during the 2013/2014 influenza season, identify risk factors for severe outcomes and complications, and assess the impact of different influenza viruses on clinically relevant outcomes in at-risk populations.

METHODS

Eligible consecutive admissions were screened for inclusion at 19 hospitals in Russia, Turkey, China, and Spain using a prospective, active surveillance approach. Patients that fulfilled a common case definition were enrolled and epidemiological data were collected. Risk factors for hospitalization with laboratory-confirmed influenza were identified by multivariable logistic regression.

FINDINGS

5303 of 9507 consecutive admissions were included in the analysis. Of these, 1086 were influenza positive (534 A(H3N2), 362 A(H1N1), 130 B/Yamagata lineage, 3 B/Victoria lineage, 40 untyped A, and 18 untyped B). The risk of hospitalization with influenza (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) was elevated for patients with cardiovascular disease (1.63 [1.33-2.02]), asthma (2.25 [1.67-3.03]), immunosuppression (2.25 [1.23-4.11]), renal disease (2.11 [1.48-3.01]), liver disease (1.94 [1.18-3.19], autoimmune disease (2.97 [1.58-5.59]), and pregnancy (3.84 [2.48-5.94]). Patients without comorbidities accounted for 60% of admissions with influenza. The need for intensive care or in-hospital death was not significantly different between patients with or without influenza. Influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of confirmed influenza (adjusted odds ratio = 0.61 [0.48-0.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza infection was detected among hospital admissions with and without known risk factors. Pregnancy and underlying comorbidity increased the risk of detecting influenza virus in patients hospitalized with influenza-like illness. Our results support influenza vaccination as a measure for reducing the risk of influenza-associated hospital admission.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination programme in preventing hospital admissions, Valencia, 2014/15 early results

Preliminary results for the 2014/15 season indicate low to null effect of vaccination against influenza A(H3N2)-related disease. As of week 5 2015, there have been 1,136 hospital admissions, 210 were due to influenza and 98% of subtype A strains were H3. Adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness was 33% (range: 6-53%) overall and 40% (range: 13% to 59%) in those 65 years and older. Vaccination reduced by 44% (28-68%) the probability of admission with influenza.