Association between classes and subclasses of polyphenol intake and 5-year body weight changes in the EPIC-PANACEA study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among the intake of total polyphenols, polyphenol classes, and polyphenol subclasses and body weight change over 5 years.

METHODS

A total of 349,165 men and women aged 25 to 70 years were recruited in the Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of Smoking, Eating Out of Home and Obesity (PANACEA) project of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from nine European countries. Body weight was measured at baseline and at follow-up after a median time of 5 years. Polyphenol intake, including four main polyphenol classes and eighteen subclasses, was estimated using validated dietary questionnaires and Phenol-Explorer. Multilevel mixed linear regression models were used to estimate the associations.

RESULTS

Participants gained, on average, 2.6 kg (±5.0 kg) over 5 years. Total flavonoids intake was inversely associated with body weight change (-0.195 kg/5 years, 95% CI: -0.262 to -0.128). However, the intake of total polyphenols (0.205 kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.138 to 0.272) and intake of hydroxycinnamic acids (0.324 kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.267 to 0.381) were positively associated with body weight gain. In analyses stratified by coffee consumption, hydroxycinnamic acid intake was positively associated with body weight gain in coffee consumers (0.379 kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.319 to 0.440), but not in coffee nonconsumers (-0.179 kg/5 years, 95% CI: -0.490 to 0.133).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intakes of flavonoids and their subclasses are inversely associated with a modest body weight change. Results regarding hydroxycinnamic acids in coffee consumers require further investigation.

Dietary intake of total, heme and non-heme iron and the risk of colorectal cancer in a European prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Iron is an essential micronutrient with differing intake patterns and metabolism between men and women. Epidemiologic evidence on the association of dietary iron and its heme and non-heme components with colorectal cancer (CRC) development is inconclusive.

METHODS

We examined baseline dietary questionnaire-assessed intakes of total, heme, and non-heme iron and CRC risk in the EPIC cohort. Sex-specific multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using Cox regression. We modelled substitution of a 1 mg/day of heme iron intake with non-heme iron using the leave one-out method.

RESULTS

Of 450,105 participants (318,680 women) followed for 14.2 ± 4.0 years, 6162 (3511 women) developed CRC. In men, total iron intake was not associated with CRC risk (highest vs. lowest quintile, HRQ5vs.Q1:0.88; 95%CI:0.73, 1.06). An inverse association was observed for non-heme iron (HRQ5vs.Q1:0.80, 95%CI:0.67, 0.96) whereas heme iron showed a non-significant association (HRQ5vs.Q1:1.10; 95%CI:0.96, 1.27). In women, CRC risk was not associated with intakes of total (HRQ5vs.Q1:1.11, 95%CI:0.94, 1.31), heme (HRQ5vs.Q1:0.95; 95%CI:0.84, 1.07) or non-heme iron (HRQ5vs.Q1:1.03, 95%CI:0.88, 1.20). Substitution of heme with non-heme iron demonstrated lower CRC risk in men (HR:0.94; 95%CI: 0.89, 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest potential sex-specific CRC risk associations for higher iron consumption that may differ by dietary sources.

Changes in Lifestyle and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition

INTRODUCTION

We investigated the impact of changes in lifestyle habits on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in a multicountry European cohort.

METHODS

We used baseline and follow-up questionnaire data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort to assess changes in lifestyle habits and their associations with CRC development. We calculated a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score based on smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and physical activity collected at the 2 time points. HLI ranged from 0 (most unfavorable) to 16 (most favorable). We estimated the association between HLI changes and CRC risk using Cox regression models and reported hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Among 295,865 participants, 2,799 CRC cases were observed over a median of 7.8 years. The median time between questionnaires was 5.7 years. Each unit increase in HLI from the baseline to the follow-up assessment was associated with a statistically significant 3% lower CRC risk. Among participants in the top tertile at baseline (HLI > 11), those in the bottom tertile at follow-up (HLI ≤ 9) had a higher CRC risk (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.02-1.75) than those remaining in the top tertile. Among individuals in the bottom tertile at baseline, those in the top tertile at follow-up had a lower risk (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.59-1.00) than those remaining in the bottom tertile.

DISCUSSION

Improving adherence to a healthy lifestyle was inversely associated with CRC risk, while worsening adherence was positively associated with CRC risk. These results justify and support recommendations for healthy lifestyle changes and healthy lifestyle maintenance for CRC prevention.

Circulating insulin-like growth factors and risks of overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer: a collaborative analysis of 20 prospective studies and Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer.

METHODS

Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium.

RESULTS

In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease.

Effectiveness of a Meningococcal Group B Vaccine (4CMenB) in Children

BACKGROUND

In September 2015, the four-component, protein-based meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB; Bexsero) became available for private purchase in Spain.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide matched case-control study to assess the effectiveness of 4CMenB in preventing invasive meningococcal disease in children. The study included all laboratory-confirmed cases of invasive meningococcal disease in children younger than 60 months of age between October 5, 2015, and October 6, 2019, in Spain. Each case patient was matched with four controls according to date of birth and province. 4CMenB vaccination status of the case patients and controls was compared with the use of multivariate conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

We compared 306 case patients (243 [79.4%] with serogroup B disease) with 1224 controls. A total of 35 case patients (11.4%) and 298 controls (24.3%) had received at least one dose of 4CMenB. The effectiveness of complete vaccination with 4CMenB (defined as receipt of at least 2 doses, administered in accordance with the manufacturer's recommendations) was 76% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57 to 87) against invasive meningococcal disease caused by any serogroup, and partial vaccination was 54% (95% CI, 18 to 74) effective. Complete vaccination resulted in an effectiveness of 71% (95% CI, 45 to 85) against meningococcal serogroup B disease. Vaccine effectiveness with at least one dose of 4CMenB was 64% (95% CI, 41 to 78) against serogroup B disease and 82% (95% CI, 21 to 96) against non-serogroup B disease. With the use of the genetic Meningococcal Antigen Typing System, serogroup B strains that were expected to be covered by 4CMenB were detected in 44 case patients, none of whom had been vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Complete vaccination with 4CMenB was found to be effective in preventing invasive disease by serogroup B and non-serogroup B meningococci in children younger than 5 years of age.

Protein and amino acid intakes in relation to prostate cancer risk and mortality-A prospective study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

The association between protein intake and prostate cancer risk remains unclear.

AIMS

To prospectively investigate the associations of dietary intakes of total protein, protein from different dietary sources, and amino acids with prostate cancer risk and mortality.

METHODS

In 131,425 men from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, protein and amino acid intakes were estimated using validated dietary questionnaires. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 14.2 years, 6939 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 914 died of the disease. Dairy protein was positively associated with overall prostate cancer risk in the three highest fifths compared to the lowest (HRQ3 =1.14 (95% CI 1.05-1.23); HRQ 4=1.09 (1.01-1.18); HRQ5 =1.10 (1.02-1.19)); similar results were observed for yogurt protein (HRQ3 =1.14 (1.05-1.24); HRQ4 =1.09 (1.01-1.18); HRQ5 =1.12 (1.04-1.21)). For egg protein intake and prostate cancer mortality, no association was observed by fifths, but there was suggestive evidence of a positive association in the analysis per standard deviation increment. There was no strong evidence of associations with different tumour subtypes.

DISCUSSION

Considering the weak associations and many tests, the results must be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION

This study does not provide strong evidence for an association of intakes of total protein, protein from different dietary sources or amino acids with prostate cancer risk or mortality. However, our results may suggest some weak positive associations, which need to be confirmed in large-scale, pooled analyses of prospective data.

Dietary Intake of 91 Individual Polyphenols and 5-Year Body Weight Change in the EPIC-PANACEA Cohort

Polyphenols are bioactive compounds from plants with antioxidant properties that may have a protective role against body weight gain, with adipose tissue and systemic oxidative stress as potential targets. We aimed to investigate the dietary intake of individual polyphenols and their association with 5-year body weight change in a sub-cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). This study included 349,165 adult participants from nine European countries. Polyphenol intake was estimated through country-specific validated dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. Body weight was obtained at recruitment and after a mean follow-up time of 5 years. Associations were estimated using multilevel mixed linear regression models. From 91 polyphenols included, the majority (n = 67) were inversely associated with 5-year body weight change after FDR-correction (q < 0.05). The greatest inverse associations were observed for quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside (change in weight for doubling in intake: −0.071 (95% CI: −0.085; −0.056) kg/5 years). Only 13 polyphenols showed positive associations with body weight gain, mainly from the subclass hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs) with coffee as the main dietary source, such as 4-caffeoylquinic acid (0.029 (95% CI: 0.021; 0.038) kg/5 years). Individual polyphenols with fruit, tea, cocoa and whole grain cereals as the main dietary sources may contribute to body weight maintenance in adults. Individual HCAs may have different roles in body weight change depending on their dietary source.

Circulating Isovalerylcarnitine and Lung Cancer Risk: Evidence from Mendelian Randomization and Prediagnostic Blood Measurements

BACKGROUND

Tobacco exposure causes 8 of 10 lung cancers, and identifying additional risk factors is challenging due to confounding introduced by smoking in traditional observational studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to screen 207 metabolites for their role in lung cancer predisposition using independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of blood metabolite levels (n = 7,824) and lung cancer risk (n = 29,266 cases/56,450 controls). A nested case-control study (656 cases and 1,296 matched controls) was subsequently performed using prediagnostic blood samples to validate MR association with lung cancer incidence data from population-based cohorts (EPIC and NSHDS).

RESULTS

An MR-based scan of 207 circulating metabolites for lung cancer risk identified that blood isovalerylcarnitine (IVC) was associated with a decreased odds of lung cancer after accounting for multiple testing (log10-OR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.29-0.63). Molar measurement of IVC in prediagnostic blood found similar results (log10-OR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21-0.72). Results were consistent across lung cancer subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent lines of evidence support an inverse association of elevated circulating IVC with lung cancer risk through a novel methodologic approach that integrates genetic and traditional epidemiology to efficiently identify novel cancer biomarkers.

IMPACT

Our results find compelling evidence in favor of a protective role for a circulating metabolite, IVC, in lung cancer etiology. From the treatment of a Mendelian disease, isovaleric acidemia, we know that circulating IVC is modifiable through a restricted protein diet or glycine and L-carnatine supplementation. IVC may represent a modifiable and inversely associated biomarker for lung cancer.

Circulating free testosterone and risk of aggressive prostate cancer: Prospective and Mendelian randomisation analyses in international consortia

Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of testosterone with aggressive disease as a primary endpoint. Further, the association of genetically predicted testosterone with aggressive disease is not known. We investigated the associations of calculated free and measured total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with aggressive, overall and early-onset prostate cancer. In blood-based analyses, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression from prospective analysis of biomarker concentrations in the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group (up to 25 studies, 14 944 cases and 36 752 controls, including 1870 aggressive prostate cancers). In Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses, using instruments identified using UK Biobank (up to 194 453 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 79 148 cases and 61 106 controls, including 15 167 aggressive cancers), ORs were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Free testosterone was associated with aggressive disease in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08-1.40). In blood-based analyses there was no association with aggressive disease overall, but there was heterogeneity by age at blood collection (OR for men aged <60 years 1.14, CI = 1.02-1.28; Phet  = .0003: inverse association for older ages). Associations for free testosterone were positive for overall prostate cancer (MR: 1.20, 1.08-1.34; blood-based: 1.03, 1.01-1.05) and early-onset prostate cancer (MR: 1.37, 1.09-1.73; blood-based: 1.08, 0.98-1.19). SHBG and total testosterone were inversely associated with overall prostate cancer in blood-based analyses, with null associations in MR analysis. Our results support free testosterone, rather than total testosterone, in the development of prostate cancer, including aggressive subgroups.

Inflammatory potential of diet and pancreatic cancer risk in the EPIC study

PURPOSE

There is existing evidence on the potential role of chronic inflammation in the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer (PC) and on how risk may be modulated by dietary factors. Pro-inflammatory diets are suggested to be associated with increased risk of PC but, so far, evidence remains not conclusive. We examined the association between the dietary inflammatory potential and PC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, which includes 450,112 participants.

METHODS

After a 14-year follow-up, a total of 1239 incident PC cases were included in this study. The inflammatory potential of the diet was estimated using an Inflammatory Score of the Diet (ISD). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between the ISD and PC were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models, adjusted for known risk factors for PC.

RESULTS

Participants with higher ISDs had a higher risk of developing PCs. In the fully adjusted multivariate model, the risk of PC increased by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.22) for 1 point each standard deviation increase in the ISD score. Neither obesity nor any other known risk factor for PC showed statistically significant interactions.

CONCLUSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first prospective study reporting a positive relationship between the inflammatory potential of diet and PC. Since early diagnosis and treatment of pancreatic cancer might be challenging, prevention remains the major hope for reducing the burden of this disease.

Circulating inflammatory biomarkers, adipokines and breast cancer risk-a case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND

Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status.

METHODS

Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration.

RESULTS

Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77-1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76-1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75-1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05-1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01-1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99-1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68-1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66-0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72-1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96-1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89-1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92-1.16)].

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Prediagnostic alterations in circulating bile acid profiles in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma

Bile acids (BAs) play different roles in cancer development. Some are carcinogenic and BA signaling is also involved in various metabolic, inflammatory and immune-related processes. The liver is the primary site of BA synthesis. Liver dysfunction and microbiome compositional changes, such as during hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, may modulate BA metabolism increasing concentration of carcinogenic BAs. Observations from prospective cohorts are sparse. We conducted a study (233 HCC case-control pairs) nested within a large observational prospective cohort with blood samples taken at recruitment when healthy with follow-up over time for later cancer development. A targeted metabolomics method was used to quantify 17 BAs (primary/secondary/tertiary; conjugated/unconjugated) in prediagnostic plasma. Odd ratios (OR) for HCC risk associations were calculated by multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Positive HCC risk associations were observed for the molar sum of all BAs (ORdoubling  = 2.30, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.76-3.00), and choline- and taurine-conjugated BAs. Relative concentrations of BAs showed positive HCC risk associations for glycoholic acid and most taurine-conjugated BAs. We observe an association between increased HCC risk and higher levels of major circulating BAs, from several years prior to tumor diagnosis and after multivariable adjustment for confounders and liver functionality. Increase in BA concentration is accompanied by a shift in BA profile toward higher proportions of taurine-conjugated BAs, indicating early alterations of BA metabolism with HCC development. Future studies are needed to assess BA profiles for improved stratification of patients at high HCC risk and to determine whether supplementation with certain BAs may ameliorate liver dysfunction.

High-risk subtypes of chronic lymphocytic leukemia are detectable as early as 16 years prior to diagnosis

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is preceded by monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), a CLL precursor state with a prevalence of up to 12% in aged individuals; however, the duration of MBL and the mechanisms of its evolution to CLL remain largely unknown. In this study, we sequenced the B-cell receptor (BcR) immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGH) gene repertoire of 124 patients with CLL and 118 matched controls in blood samples taken up to 22 years prior to diagnosis. Significant skewing in the BcR IGH gene repertoire was detected in the majority of patients, even before the occurrence of lymphocytosis and irrespective of the clonotypic IGH variable gene somatic hypermutation status. Furthermore, we identified dominant clonotypes belonging to major stereotyped subsets associated with poor prognosis up to 16 years before diagnosis in 14 patients with CLL. In 22 patients with longitudinal samples, the skewing of the BcR IGH gene repertoire increased significantly over time to diagnosis or remained stable at high levels. For 14 of 16 patients with available samples at diagnosis, the CLL clonotype was already present in the prediagnostic samples. Overall, our data indicate that the preclinical phase of CLL could be longer than previously thought, even in adverse-prognostic cases.

Association Between Egg Consumption and Dementia Risk in the EPIC-Spain Dementia Cohort

Background

Current evidence suggests that egg composition might have potential neuroprotective effects. Our aim was to determine the association between egg consumption and the risk of dementia in a Mediterranean population.

Methods

This study was carried out in 3 centers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain Dementia Cohort, i.e., 25,015 participants aged 30–70 years, recruited in 1992–1996, and followed up for a mean of 21.5 years.

Results

A total of 774 incident dementia cases were diagnosed and validated, of which 518 were Alzheimer's disease (AD). Data on egg consumption were estimated using a validated dietary history questionnaire at recruitment. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders, were used in the analyses. No association was observed between egg consumption and either total dementia [hazard ratio between extreme quartiles (HR_Q4vs.Q1: 1.05; 95% CI 0.85–1.31; p-trend = 0.93)] or AD (HR_Q4vs.Q1 0.93; 95% CI 0.72–1.21; p-trend = 0.50) risks. After dividing the population by adherence to the relative Mediterranean diet (rMED) score, a borderline inverse association was found between egg intake and both total dementia (HR_Q4vs.Q1: 0.52; 95% CI 0.30–0.90; p-trend = 0.10) and AD (HR_Q4vs.Q1: 0.52; 95% CI 0.27–1.01; p-trend = 0.13) risks within participants with low adherence to rMED score. However, no association was observed in participants with medium and high adherence to rMED score.

Conclusion

This prospective study suggests that egg consumption is associated with a reduced risk of dementia, and specifically of AD, in the adult population with low adherence to rMED score; whereas it has no impact in subjects with moderate and high MD adherence.

Evaluation of protein and amino acid intake estimates from the EPIC dietary questionnaires and 24-h dietary recalls using different food composition databases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to expand the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) nutrient database (ENDB) by adding amino acid (AA) values, using the U.S. nutrient database (USNDB). Additionally, we aimed to evaluate these new protein and AA intake estimates from the EPIC dietary questionnaires (DQ) and 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDR) using different matching procedures.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Dietary energy, protein and AA intakes were assessed via DQ and 24-HDR by matching with the USNDB food composition table. Energy and protein intakes calculated using USNDB matching were compared with those calculated using ENDB, that uses country specific food composition tables. Pearson correlations, Cohen's weighted kappa statistic and Bland-Altman plots were used to compare data resulting from USNDB matching with our reference from ENDB matching. Very high correlations were found when comparing daily energy (r = 0.99) and dietary protein intakes (r = 0.97) assessed via USNDB with those obtained via ENDB (matching for DQ and 24-HDR). Significant positive correlations were also found with energy and protein intakes acquired via 24-HDRs in the EPIC calibration sample.

CONCLUSION

Very high correlations between total energy and protein intake obtained via the USDA matching and those available in ENDB suggest accuracy in the food matching. Individual AA have been included in the extended EPIC Nutrient database that will allow important analyses on AA disease prospective associations in the EPIC study.

Consumption of ultra-processed foods associated with weight gain and obesity in adults: A multi-national cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a worldwide shift towards increased consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) with concurrent rising prevalence of obesity. We examined the relationship between the consumption of UPF and weight gain and risk of obesity.

METHODS

This prospective cohort included 348 748 men and women aged 25-70 years. Participants were recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 9 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Two body weight measures were available, at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5 years. Foods and drinks were assessed at baseline by dietary questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using NOVA classification. Multilevel mixed linear regression was used to estimate the association between UPF consumption and body weight change (kg/5 years). To estimate the relative risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years we used Poisson regression stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment, higher UPF consumption (per 1 SD increment) was positively associated with weight gain (0·12 kg/5 years, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·15). Comparing highest vs. lowest quintile of UPF consumption was associated with a 15% greater risk (95% CI 1·11, 1·19) of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight participants, and with a 16% greater risk (95% CI 1·09, 1·23) of becoming obese in participants who were overweight at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These results are supportive of public health campaigns to substitute UPF for less processed alternatives for obesity prevention and weight management.

Polyphenol Intake and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study

Despite some epidemiological evidence on the protective effects of polyphenol intake on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk from case-control studies, the evidence is scarce from prospective studies and non-existent for several polyphenol classes. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the associations between the intake of total, classes and subclasses of polyphenols and EOC risk in a large prospective study. The study was conducted in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which included 309,129 adult women recruited mostly from the general population. Polyphenol intake was assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 1469 first incident EOC cases (including 806 serous, 129 endometrioid, 102 mucinous, and 67 clear cell tumours) were identified. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, the hazard ratio in the highest quartile of total polyphenol intake compared with the lowest quartile (HRQ4vsQ1) was 1.14 (95% CI 0.94-1.39; p-trend = 0.11). Similarly, the intake of most classes and subclasses of polyphenols were not related to either overall EOC risk or any EOC subtype. A borderline statistically significant positive association was observed between phenolic acid intake (HRQ4vsQ1 = 1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.43; p-trend = 0.02) and EOC risk, especially for the serous subtype and in women with obesity, although these associations did not exceed the Bonferroni correction threshold. The current results do not support any association between polyphenol intake and EOC in our large European prospective study. Results regarding phenolic acid intake need further investigation.

Greenhouse gases emissions from the diet and risk of death and chronic diseases in the EPIC-Spain cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence from the scientific literature shows a significant variation in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the diet, according to the type of food consumed. We aim to analyze the relationship between the daily dietary GHG emissions according to red meat, fruit and vegetables consumption and their relationship with risk of total mortality, and incident risk of chronic diseases.

METHODS

We examined data on the EPIC-Spain prospective study, with a sample of 40 621 participants. Dietary GHG emission values were calculated for 57 food items of the EPIC study using mean emission data from a systematic review of 369 published studies.

RESULTS

Dietary GHG emissions (kgCO2eq/day), per 2000 kcal, were 4.7 times higher in those with high red-meat consumption (>140 g/day) than those with low consumption (<70 g/day). The average dietary GHG emissions were similar in males and females, but it was significantly higher in youngest people and in those individuals with lower educational level, as well as for northern EPIC centers of Spain. We found a significant association with the risk of mortality comparing the third vs. the first tertile of dietary GHG emissions [hazard ratio (HR) 1.095; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.007-1.19; trend test 0.037]. Risk of coronary heart disease (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.08-1.48; trend test 0.003) and risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.11-1.38; trend test 0.002) showed significant association as well.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreasing red-meat consumption would lead to reduce GHG emissions from diet and would reduce risk of mortality, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes.

Association between anthropometry and lifestyle factors and risk of B-cell lymphoma: An exposome-wide analysis

To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single-study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL.

Blood Metal Levels and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Risk: A Prospective Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Metals have been suggested as a risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but only retrospective studies are available to date. We compared metal levels in prospectively collected blood samples from ALS patients and controls, to explore whether metals are associated with ALS mortality.

METHODS

A nested ALS case-control study was conducted within the prospective EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort. Cases were identified through death certificates. We analyzed metal levels in erythrocyte samples obtained at recruitment, as a biomarker for metal exposure from any source. Arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, mercury, selenium, and zinc concentrations were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. To estimate ALS risk, we applied conditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 107 cases (65% female) and 319 controls matched for age, sex, and study center. Median time between blood collection and ALS death was 8 years (range = 1-15). Comparing the highest with the lowest tertile, cadmium (odds ratio [OR] = 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08-3.87) and lead (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 0.97-3.67) concentrations suggest associations with increased ALS risk. Zinc was associated with a decreased risk (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.27-0.94). Associations for cadmium and lead remained when limiting analyses to noncurrent smokers.

INTERPRETATION

This is the first study to compare metal levels before disease onset, minimizing reverse causation. The observed associations suggest that cadmium, lead, and zinc may play a role in ALS etiology. Cadmium and lead possibly act as intermediates on the pathway from smoking to ALS. ANN NEUROL 20209999:n/a-n/a.

Cross-Cancer Genome-Wide Association Study of Endometrial Cancer and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Identifies Genetic Risk Regions Associated with Risk of Both Cancers

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence suggests a relationship between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. Independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer have identified 16 and 27 risk regions, respectively, four of which overlap between the two cancers. We aimed to identify joint endometrial and ovarian cancer risk loci by performing a meta-analysis of GWAS summary statistics from these two cancers.

METHODS

Using LDScore regression, we explored the genetic correlation between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. To identify loci associated with the risk of both cancers, we implemented a pipeline of statistical genetic analyses (i.e., inverse-variance meta-analysis, colocalization, and M-values) and performed analyses stratified by subtype. Candidate target genes were then prioritized using functional genomic data.

RESULTS

Genetic correlation analysis revealed significant genetic correlation between the two cancers (rG = 0.43, P = 2.66 × 10-5). We found seven loci associated with risk for both cancers (P Bonferroni < 2.4 × 10-9). In addition, four novel subgenome-wide regions at 7p22.2, 7q22.1, 9p12, and 11q13.3 were identified (P < 5 × 10-7). Promoter-associated HiChIP chromatin loops from immortalized endometrium and ovarian cell lines and expression quantitative trait loci data highlighted candidate target genes for further investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

Using cross-cancer GWAS meta-analysis, we have identified several joint endometrial and ovarian cancer risk loci and candidate target genes for future functional analysis.

IMPACT

Our research highlights the shared genetic relationship between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. Further studies in larger sample sets are required to confirm our findings.

Fried-Food Consumption Does Not Increase the Risk of Stroke in the Spanish Cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study

BACKGROUND

The nutritional determinants of stroke and, more specifically, the association of frying with the risk of incident stroke have rarely been studied.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to evaluate prospectively the association between the consumption of fried food and the risk of incident stroke in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study using the Spanish cohort.

METHODS

Participants included 40,328 healthy adults (62% women) aged 29-69 y at study entry who were enrolled between 1992 and 1996. Participants were followed up until 31 December, 2017, at which time incident stroke (the main outcome) was measured. The main exposure measure was the percentage of energy obtained from fried-food consumption. Sex-specific quintiles were calculated.

RESULTS

During a follow-up period of 23.5 y, 975 cases of stroke occurred (750 ischemic, 185 hemorrhagic, and 40 undetermined). Compared with those in the first (lowest) quintile of fried-food consumption, the multivariate HRs (95% CIs) of incident stroke in the consecutive quintiles were 1.05 (0.86, 1.30), 1.11 (0.90, 1.36), 1.05 (0.84, 1.31), and 0.91 (0.72, 1.15; P-trend = 0.45). There were no differences identified when subtypes of stroke were considered.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Spanish cohort, whose participants mainly used olive oil or sunflower oil when frying, the consumption of fried food was not associated with an increased risk of incident stroke.

Replacement of Red and Processed Meat With Other Food Sources of Protein and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in European Populations: The EPIC-InterAct Study

OBJECTIVE

There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86-0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84-0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88-0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.

Serologic markers of Chlamydia trachomatis and other sexually transmitted infections and subsequent ovarian cancer risk: Results from the EPIC cohort

A substantial proportion of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) arises in the fallopian tube and other epithelia of the upper genital tract; these epithelia may incur damage and neoplastic transformation after sexually transmitted infections (STI) and pelvic inflammatory disease. We investigated the hypothesis that past STI infection, particularly Chlamydia trachomatis, is associated with higher EOC risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort including 791 cases and 1669 matched controls. Serum antibodies against C. trachomatis, Mycoplasma genitalium, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and human papillomavirus (HPV) 16, 18 and 45 were assessed using multiplex fluorescent bead-based serology. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing women with positive vs. negative serology. A total of 40% of the study population was seropositive to at least one STI. Positive serology to C. trachomatis Pgp3 antibodies was not associated with EOC risk overall, but with higher risk of the mucinous histotype (RR = 2.30 [95% CI = 1.22-4.32]). Positive serology for chlamydia heat shock protein 60 (cHSP60-1) was associated with higher risk of EOC overall (1.36 [1.13-1.64]) and with the serous subtype (1.44 [1.12-1.85]). None of the other evaluated STIs were associated with EOC risk overall; however, HSV-2 was associated with higher risk of endometrioid EOC (2.35 [1.24-4.43]). The findings of our study suggest a potential role of C. trachomatis in the carcinogenesis of serous and mucinous EOC, while HSV-2 might promote the development of endometrioid disease.

Dietary intake of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and changes in body weight in European adults

PURPOSE

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) can be formed in foods by the reaction of reducing sugars with proteins, and have been shown to induce insulin resistance and obesity in experimental studies. We examined the association between dietary AGEs intake and changes in body weight in adults over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

METHODS

A total of 255,170 participants aged 25-70 years were recruited in ten European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA study (Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of smoking, Eating out of home in relation to Anthropometry), a sub-cohort of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported between 2 and 11 years later depending on the study center. A reference database for AGEs was used containing UPLC-MS/MS-measured Nε-(carboxymethyl)-lysine (CML), Nε-(1-carboxyethyl)-lysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) in 200 common European foods. This reference database was matched to foods and decomposed recipes obtained from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires in EPIC and intake levels of CEL, CML, and MG-H1 were estimated. Associations between dietary AGEs intake and body weight change were estimated separately for each of the three AGEs using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center as random effect and dietary AGEs intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects.

RESULTS

A one-SD increment in CEL intake was associated with 0.111 kg (95% CI 0.087-0.135) additional weight gain over 5 years. The corresponding additional weight gain for CML and MG-H1 was 0.065 kg (0.041-0.089) and 0.034 kg (0.012, 0.057), respectively. The top six food groups contributing to AGEs intake, with varying proportions across the AGEs, were cereals/cereal products, meat/processed meat, cakes/biscuits, dairy, sugar and confectionary, and fish/shellfish.

CONCLUSION

In this study of European adults, higher intakes of AGEs were associated with marginally greater weight gain over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

Association between nutritional profiles of foods underlying Nutri-Score front-of-pack labels and mortality: EPIC cohort study in 10 European countries

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system (FSAm-NPS), which grades the nutritional quality of food products and is used to derive the Nutri-Score front-of-packet label to guide consumers towards healthier food choices, is associated with mortality.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from 23 centres in 10 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

521 324 adults; at recruitment, country specific and validated dietary questionnaires were used to assess their usual dietary intakes. A FSAm-NPS score was calculated for each food item per 100 g content of energy, sugars, saturated fatty acids, sodium, fibre, and protein, and of fruit, vegetables, legumes, and nuts. The FSAm-NPS dietary index was calculated for each participant as an energy weighted mean of the FSAm-NPS score of all foods consumed. The higher the score the lower the overall nutritional quality of the diet.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Associations between the FSAm-NPS dietary index score and mortality, assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

After exclusions, 501 594 adults (median follow-up 17.2 years, 8 162 730 person years) were included in the analyses. Those with a higher FSAm-NPS dietary index score (highest versus lowest fifth) showed an increased risk of all cause mortality (n=53 112 events from non-external causes; hazard ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, P<0.001 for trend) and mortality from cancer (1.08, 1.03 to 1.13, P<0.001 for trend) and diseases of the circulatory (1.04, 0.98 to 1.11, P=0.06 for trend), respiratory (1.39, 1.22 to 1.59, P<0.001), and digestive (1.22, 1.02 to 1.45, P=0.03 for trend) systems. The age standardised absolute rates for all cause mortality per 10 000 persons over 10 years were 760 (men=1237; women=563) for those in the highest fifth of the FSAm-NPS dietary index score and 661 (men=1008; women=518) for those in the lowest fifth.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large multinational European cohort, consuming foods with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher mortality for all causes and for cancer and diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and digestive systems, supporting the relevance of FSAm-NPS to characterise healthier food choices in the context of public health policies (eg, the Nutri-Score) for European populations. This is important considering ongoing discussions about the potential implementation of a unique nutrition labelling system at the European Union level.

Serum levels of hsa-miR-16-5p, hsa-miR-29a-3p, hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p and subsequent risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the EPIC study

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an incurable disease accounting for almost one-third of leukemias in the Western world. Aberrant expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) is a well-established characteristic of CLL, and the robust nature of miRNAs makes them eminently suitable liquid biopsy biomarkers. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), the predictive values of five promising human miRNAs (hsa-miR-16-5p, hsa-miR-29a-3p, hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p), identified in a pilot study, were examined in serum of 224 CLL cases (diagnosed 3 months to 18 years after enrollment) and 224 matched controls using Taqman based assays. Conditional logistic regressions were applied to adjust for potential confounders. The median time from blood collection to CLL diagnosis was 10 years (p25-p75: 7-13 years). Overall, the upregulation of hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p was associated with subsequent risk of CLL [OR1∆Ct-unit increase (95%CI) = 1.42 (1.18-1.72), 1.64 (1.31-2.04) and 1.75 (1.31-2.34) for hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p, respectively] and the strongest associations were observed within 10 years of diagnosis. However, the predictive performance of these miRNAs was modest (area under the curve <0.62). hsa-miR-16-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p levels were unrelated to CLL risk. The findings of this first prospective study suggest that hsa-miR-29a, hsa-miR-150-5p and hsa-miR-155-5p were upregulated in early stages of CLL but were modest predictive biomarkers of CLL risk.

Menstrual Factors, Reproductive History, Hormone Use, and Urothelial Carcinoma Risk: A Prospective Study in the EPIC Cohort

BACKGROUND

Urothelial carcinoma is the predominant (95%) bladder cancer subtype in industrialized nations. Animal and epidemiologic human studies suggest that hormonal factors may influence urothelial carcinoma risk.

METHODS

We used an analytic cohort of 333,919 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Cohort. Associations between hormonal factors and incident urothelial carcinoma (overall and by tumor grade, tumor aggressiveness, and non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma) risk were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a mean of 15 years of follow-up, 529 women developed urothelial carcinoma. In a model including number of full-term pregnancies (FTP), menopausal status, and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), number of FTP was inversely associated with urothelial carcinoma risk (HR≥5vs1 = 0.48; 0.25-0.90; P trend in parous women = 0.010) and MHT use (compared with nonuse) was positively associated with urothelial carcinoma risk (HR = 1.27; 1.03-1.57), but no dose response by years of MHT use was observed. No modification of HRs by smoking status was observed. Finally, sensitivity analyses in never smokers showed similar HR patterns for the number of FTP, while no association between MHT use and urothelial carcinoma risk was observed. Association between MHT use and urothelial carcinoma risk remained significant only in current smokers. No heterogeneity of the risk estimations in the final model was observed by tumor aggressiveness or by tumor grade. A positive association between MTH use and non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma risk was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support that increasing the number of FTP may reduce urothelial carcinoma risk.

IMPACT

More detailed studies on parity are needed to understand the possible effects of perinatal hormone changes in urothelial cells.

Association of plasma biomarkers of fruit and vegetable intake with incident type 2 diabetes: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study in eight European countries

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of plasma vitamin C and carotenoids, as indicators of fruit and vegetable intake, with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective case-cohort study.

SETTING

Populations from eight European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

9754 participants with incident type 2 diabetes, and a subcohort of 13 662 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort of 340 234 participants: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

In a multivariable adjusted model, higher plasma vitamin C was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.89). A similar inverse association was shown for total carotenoids (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.75, 0.68 to 0.82). A composite biomarker score (split into five equal groups), comprising vitamin C and individual carotenoids, was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes with hazard ratios 0.77, 0.66, 0.59, and 0.50 for groups 2-5 compared with group 1 (the lowest group). Self-reported median fruit and vegetable intake was 274 g/day, 396 g/day, and 508 g/day for participants in categories defined by groups 1, 3, and 5 of the composite biomarker score, respectively. One standard deviation difference in the composite biomarker score, equivalent to a 66 (95% confidence interval 61 to 71) g/day difference in total fruit and vegetable intake, was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83). This would be equivalent to an absolute risk reduction of 0.95 per 1000 person years of follow up if achieved across an entire population with the characteristics of the eight European countries included in this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate an inverse association between plasma vitamin C, carotenoids, and their composite biomarker score, and incident type 2 diabetes in different European countries. These biomarkers are objective indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption, and suggest that diets rich in even modestly higher fruit and vegetable consumption could help to prevent development of type 2 diabetes.

Prediagnostic Plasma Bile Acid Levels and Colon Cancer Risk: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Bile acids have been proposed to promote colon carcinogenesis. However, there are limited prospective data on circulating bile acid levels and colon cancer risk in humans.

METHODS

Associations between prediagnostic plasma levels of 17 primary, secondary, and tertiary bile acid metabolites (conjugated and unconjugated) and colon cancer risk were evaluated in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Bile acid levels were quantified by tandem mass spectrometry in samples from 569 incident colon cancer cases and 569 matched controls. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for colon cancer risk across quartiles of bile acid concentrations.

RESULTS

Positive associations were observed between colon cancer risk and plasma levels of seven conjugated bile acid metabolites: the primary bile acids glycocholic acid (ORquartile 4 vs quartile 1= 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52 to 3.26), taurocholic acid (OR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.58), glycochenodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.48), taurochenodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.36), and glycohyocholic acid (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.40), and the secondary bile acids glycodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.54) and taurodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.02 to 2.31). By contrast, unconjugated bile acids and tertiary bile acids were not associated with risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This prospective study showed that prediagnostic levels of certain conjugated primary and secondary bile acids were positively associated with risk of colon cancer. Our findings support experimental data to suggest that a high bile acid load is colon cancer promotive.

Plasma polyphenols associated with lower high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentrations: a cross-sectional study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

Experimental studies have reported on the anti-inflammatory properties of polyphenols. However, results from epidemiological investigations have been inconsistent and especially studies using biomarkers for assessment of polyphenol intake have been scant. We aimed to characterise the association between plasma concentrations of thirty-five polyphenol compounds and low-grade systemic inflammation state as measured by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). A cross-sectional data analysis was performed based on 315 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort with available measurements of plasma polyphenols and hsCRP. In logistic regression analysis, the OR and 95 % CI of elevated serum hsCRP (>3 mg/l) were calculated within quartiles and per standard deviation higher level of plasma polyphenol concentrations. In a multivariable-adjusted model, the sum of plasma concentrations of all polyphenols measured (per standard deviation) was associated with 29 (95 % CI 50, 1) % lower odds of elevated hsCRP. In the class of flavonoids, daidzein was inversely associated with elevated hsCRP (OR 0·66, 95 % CI 0·46, 0·96). Among phenolic acids, statistically significant associations were observed for 3,5-dihydroxyphenylpropionic acid (OR 0·58, 95 % CI 0·39, 0·86), 3,4-dihydroxyphenylpropionic acid (OR 0·63, 95 % CI 0·46, 0·87), ferulic acid (OR 0·65, 95 % CI 0·44, 0·96) and caffeic acid (OR 0·69, 95 % CI 0·51, 0·93). The odds of elevated hsCRP were significantly reduced for hydroxytyrosol (OR 0·67, 95 % CI 0·48, 0·93). The present study showed that polyphenol biomarkers are associated with lower odds of elevated hsCRP. Whether diet rich in bioactive polyphenol compounds could be an effective strategy to prevent or modulate deleterious health effects of inflammation should be addressed by further well-powered longitudinal studies.

Nutrient-wide association study of 92 foods and nutrients and breast cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Several dietary factors have been reported to be associated with risk of breast cancer, but to date, unequivocal evidence only exists for alcohol consumption. We sought to systematically assess the association between intake of 92 foods and nutrients and breast cancer risk using a nutrient-wide association study.

METHODS

Using data from 272,098 women participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we assessed dietary intake of 92 foods and nutrients estimated by dietary questionnaires. Cox regression was used to quantify the association between each food/nutrient and risk of breast cancer. A false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05 was used to select the set of foods and nutrients to be replicated in the independent Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS).

RESULTS

Six foods and nutrients were identified as associated with risk of breast cancer in the EPIC study (10,979 cases). Higher intake of alcohol overall was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 SD increment in intake = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07), as was beer/cider intake and wine intake (HRs per 1 SD increment = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.06 and 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, respectively), whereas higher intakes of fibre, apple/pear, and carbohydrates were associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (HRs per 1 SD increment = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98; 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99; and 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.98, respectively). When evaluated in the NLCS (2368 cases), estimates for each of these foods and nutrients were similar in magnitude and direction, with the exception of beer/cider intake, which was not associated with risk in the NLCS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm a positive association of alcohol consumption and suggest an inverse association of dietary fibre and possibly fruit intake with breast cancer risk.

Coffee and tea drinking in relation to the risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

PURPOSE

Coffee and tea constituents have shown several anti-carcinogenic activities in cellular and animal studies, including against thyroid cancer (TC). However, epidemiological evidence is still limited and inconsistent. Therefore, we aimed to investigate this association in a large prospective study.

METHODS

The study was conducted in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort, which included 476,108 adult men and women. Coffee and tea intakes were assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 748 first incident differentiated TC cases (including 601 papillary and 109 follicular TC) were identified. Coffee consumption (per 100 mL/day) was not associated either with total differentiated TC risk (HRcalibrated 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.04) or with the risk of TC subtypes. Tea consumption (per 100 mL/day) was not associated with the risk of total differentiated TC (HRcalibrated 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.02) and papillary tumor (HRcalibrated 0.99, 95% CI 0.95-1.03), whereas an inverse association was found with follicular tumor risk (HRcalibrated 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99), but this association was based on a sub-analysis with a small number of cancer cases.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective study, coffee and tea consumptions were not associated with TC risk.

Development and validation of circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker.

METHODS

We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC.

RESULT

The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Reproductive and Lifestyle Factors and Circulating sRANKL and OPG Concentrations in Women: Results from the EPIC Cohort

BACKGROUND

Except for a documented increase in osteoprotegerin (OPG) concentrations with older age, data on determinants of soluble Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor κB (sRANKL) and OPG concentrations in women are limited. We evaluated reproductive and lifestyle factors as potential sources of variation in circulating sRANKL and OPG concentrations in pre- and postmenopausal women.

METHODS

This study includes 2,016 controls [n = 1,552 (76%) postmenopausal, n = 757 (38%) using postmenopausal hormone therapy (PMH)] from a breast cancer case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Serum sRANKL was measured using an ELISA and serum OPG using an electrochemiluminescent assay. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate associations between these analytes and reproductive and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

Older age at blood collection was associated with lower sRANKL concentrations in postmenopausal women (P trend ≤ 0.03) and higher OPG concentrations in all women (P trend ≤ 0.01). Longer duration of oral contraceptive use among premenopausal women and postmenopausal PMH users was associated with higher OPG (P trend ≤ 0.04). In postmenopausal non-PMH users, sRANKL concentrations were lower with longer duration of oral contraceptive use and current (vs. never) smoking (P ≤ 0.01). sRANKL concentrations were higher among women with higher BMI (P trend ≤ 0.01). The evaluated factors accounted for 12% of the variation in sRANKL concentrations and 21% of the variation in OPG concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating sRANKL and OPG concentrations are minimally impacted by hormone-related factors in pre- and postmenopausal women.

IMPACT

This study suggests circulating concentrations of sRANKL and OPG are unlikely to be strongly modified by hormone-related reproductive and lifestyle factors.

Gallstones and incident colorectal cancer in a large pan-European cohort study

Gallstones, a common gastrointestinal condition, can lead to several digestive complications and can result in inflammation. Risk factors for gallstones include obesity, diabetes, smoking and physical inactivity, all of which are known risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), as is inflammation. However, it is unclear whether gallstones are a risk factor for CRC. We examined the association between history of gallstones and CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a prospective cohort of over half a million participants from ten European countries. History of gallstones was assessed at baseline using a self-reported questionnaire. The analytic cohort included 334,986 participants; a history of gallstones was reported by 3,917 men and 19,836 women, and incident CRC was diagnosed among 1,832 men and 2,178 women (mean follow-up: 13.6 years). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between gallstones and CRC were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models, stratified by sex, study centre and age at recruitment. The models were adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, alcohol intake and physical activity. A positive, marginally significant association was detected between gallstones and CRC among women in multivariable analyses (HR = 1.14, 95%CI 0.99-1.31, p = 0.077). The relationship between gallstones and CRC among men was inverse but not significant (HR = 0.81, 95%CI 0.63-1.04, p = 0.10). Additional adjustment for details of reproductive history or waist circumference yielded minimal changes to the observed associations. Further research is required to confirm the nature of the association between gallstones and CRC by sex.

Vitamin D-Related Genes, Blood Vitamin D Levels and Colorectal Cancer Risk in Western European Populations

Higher circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (25(OH)D) have been found to be associated with lower risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) in prospective studies. Whether this association is modified by genetic variation in genes related to vitamin D metabolism and action has not been well studied in humans. We investigated 1307 functional and tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; individually, and by gene/pathway) in 86 vitamin D-related genes in 1420 incident CRC cases matched to controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We also evaluated the association between these SNPs and circulating 25(OH)D in a subset of controls. We confirmed previously reported CRC risk associations between SNPs in the VDR, GC, and CYP27B1 genes. We also identified additional associations with 25(OH)D, as well as CRC risk, and several potentially novel SNPs in genes related to vitamin D transport and action (LRP2, CUBN, NCOA7, and HDAC9). However, none of these SNPs were statistically significant after Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) multiple testing correction. When assessed by a priori defined functional pathways, tumor growth factor β (TGFβ) signaling was associated with CRC risk (P ≤ 0.001), with most statistically significant genes being SMAD7 (PBH = 0.008) and SMAD3 (PBH = 0.008), and 18 SNPs in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) binding sites (P = 0.036). The 25(OH)D-gene pathway analysis suggested that genetic variants in the genes related to VDR complex formation and transcriptional activity are associated with CRC depending on 25(OH)D levels (interaction P = 0.041). Additional studies in large populations and consortia, especially with measured circulating 25(OH)D, are needed to confirm our findings.

Timing of HPV16-E6 antibody seroconversion before OPSCC: findings from the HPVC3 consortium

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6-11 years, range = 0-40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay).

RESULTS

HPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1-155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7-170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years (N = 24), 20-30 years (N = 148), 10-20 years (N = 228), and <10 years (N = 301 cases) (p-trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.

Adherence to the mediterranean diet and lymphoma risk in the european prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

There is a growing evidence of the protective role of the Mediterranean diet (MD) on cancer. However, no prospective study has yet investigated its influence on lymphoma. We evaluated the association between adherence to the MD and risk of lymphoma and its subtypes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The analysis included 476,160 participants, recruited from 10 European countries between 1991 and 2001. Adherence to the MD was estimated through the adapted relative MD (arMED) score excluding alcohol. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used while adjusting for potential confounders. During an average follow-up of 13.9 years, 3,136 lymphomas (135 Hodgkin lymphoma [HL], 2,606 non-HL and 395 lymphoma not otherwise specified) were identified. Overall, a 1-unit increase in the arMED score was associated with a 2% lower risk of lymphoma (95% CI: 0.97; 1.00, p-trend = 0.03) while a statistically nonsignificant inverse association between a high versus low arMED score and risk of lymphoma was observed (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91 [95% CI 0.80; 1.03], p-trend = 0.12). Analyses by lymphoma subtype did not reveal any statistically significant associations. Albeit with small numbers of cases (N = 135), a suggestive inverse association was found for HL (HR 1-unit increase = 0.93 [95% CI: 0.86; 1.01], p-trend = 0.07). However, the study may have lacked statistical power to detect small effect sizes for lymphoma subtype. Our findings suggest that an increasing arMED score was inversely related to the risk of overall lymphoma in EPIC but not by subtypes. Further large prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Heterogeneity of Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors by Anatomical Subsite in 10 European Countries: A Multinational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Colorectal cancer located at different anatomical subsites may have distinct etiologies and risk factors. Previous studies that have examined this hypothesis have yielded inconsistent results, possibly because most studies have been of insufficient size to identify heterogeneous associations with precision.

METHODS

In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, we used multivariable joint Cox proportional hazards models, which accounted for tumors at different anatomical sites (proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum) as competing risks, to examine the relationships between 14 established/suspected lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive/menstrual risk factors with colorectal cancer risk. Heterogeneity across sites was tested using Wald tests.

RESULTS

After a median of 14.9 years of follow-up of 521,330 men and women, 6291 colorectal cancer cases occurred. Physical activity was related inversely to proximal colon and distal colon cancer, but not to rectal cancer (P heterogeneity = .03). Height was associated positively with proximal and distal colon cancer only, but not rectal cancer (P heterogeneity = .0001). For men, but not women, heterogeneous relationships were observed for body mass index (P heterogeneity = .008) and waist circumference (P heterogeneity = .03), with weaker positive associations found for rectal cancer, compared with proximal and distal colon cancer. Current smoking was associated with a greater risk of rectal and proximal colon cancer, but not distal colon cancer (P heterogeneity = .05). No heterogeneity by anatomical site was found for alcohol consumption, diabetes, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and reproductive/menstrual factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationships between physical activity, anthropometry, and smoking with colorectal cancer risk differed by subsite, supporting the hypothesis that tumors in different anatomical regions may have distinct etiologies.

Predicting Circulating CA125 Levels among Healthy Premenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

Cancer antigen 125 (CA125) is the most promising ovarian cancer screening biomarker to date. Multiple studies reported CA125 levels vary by personal characteristics, which could inform personalized CA125 thresholds. However, this has not been well described in premenopausal women.

METHODS

We evaluated predictors of CA125 levels among 815 premenopausal women from the New England Case Control Study (NEC). We developed linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) CA125 prediction models and externally validated an abridged model restricting to available predictors among 473 premenopausal women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC).

RESULTS

The final linear CA125 prediction model included age, race, tubal ligation, endometriosis, menstrual phase at blood draw, and fibroids, which explained 7% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between observed and predicted CA125 levels based on the abridged model (including age, race, and menstrual phase at blood draw) had similar correlation coefficients in NEC (r = 0.22) and in EPIC (r = 0.22). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, tubal ligation, endometriosis, prior personal cancer diagnosis, family history of ovarian cancer, number of miscarriages, menstrual phase at blood draw, and smoking status with AUC of 0.83. The abridged dichotomous model (including age, number of miscarriages, menstrual phase at blood draw, and smoking status) showed similar AUCs in NEC (0.73) and in EPIC (0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a combination of factors associated with CA125 levels in premenopausal women.

IMPACT

Our model could be valuable in identifying healthy women likely to have elevated CA125 and consequently improve its specificity for ovarian cancer screening.

Generalizability of a Diabetes-Associated Country-Specific Exploratory Dietary Pattern Is Feasible Across European Populations

BACKGROUND

Population-specificity of exploratory dietary patterns limits their generalizability in investigations with type 2 diabetes incidence.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to derive country-specific exploratory dietary patterns, investigate their association with type 2 diabetes incidence, and replicate diabetes-associated dietary patterns in other countries.

METHODS

Dietary intake data were used, assessed by country-specific questionnaires at baseline of 11,183 incident diabetes cases and 14,694 subcohort members (mean age 52.9 y) from 8 countries, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (mean follow-up time 6.9 y). Exploratory dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. HRs for incident type 2 diabetes were calculated by Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Diabetes-associated dietary patterns were simplified or replicated to be applicable in other countries. A meta-analysis across all countries evaluated the generalizability of the diabetes-association.

RESULTS

Two dietary patterns per country/UK-center, of which overall 3 dietary patterns were diabetes-associated, were identified. A risk-lowering French dietary pattern was not confirmed across other countries: pooled HRFrance per 1 SD: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.10. Risk-increasing dietary patterns, derived in Spain and UK-Norfolk, were confirmed, but only the latter statistically significantly: HRSpain: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.22 and HRUK-Norfolk: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.20. Respectively, this dietary pattern was characterized by relatively high intakes of potatoes, processed meat, vegetable oils, sugar, cake and cookies, and tea.

CONCLUSIONS

Only few country/center-specific dietary patterns (3 of 18) were statistically significantly associated with diabetes incidence in this multicountry European study population. One pattern, whose association with diabetes was confirmed across other countries, showed overlaps in the food groups potatoes and processed meat with identified diabetes-associated dietary patterns from other studies. The study demonstrates that replication of associations of exploratory patterns with health outcomes is feasible and a necessary step to overcome population-specificity in associations from such analyses.

Association of Selenoprotein and Selenium Pathway Genotypes with Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Interaction with Selenium Status

Selenoprotein genetic variations and suboptimal selenium (Se) levels may contribute to the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. We examined the association between CRC risk and genotype for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in selenoprotein and Se metabolic pathway genes. Illumina Goldengate assays were designed and resulted in the genotyping of 1040 variants in 154 genes from 1420 cases and 1421 controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Multivariable logistic regression revealed an association of 144 individual SNPs from 63 Se pathway genes with CRC risk. However, regarding the selenoprotein genes, only TXNRD1 rs11111979 retained borderline statistical significance after adjustment for correlated tests (PACT = 0.10; PACT significance threshold was P < 0.1). SNPs in Wingless/Integrated (Wnt) and Transforming growth factor (TGF) beta-signaling genes (FRZB, SMAD3, SMAD7) from pathways affected by Se intake were also associated with CRC risk after multiple testing adjustments. Interactions with Se status (using existing serum Se and Selenoprotein P data) were tested at the SNP, gene, and pathway levels. Pathway analyses using the modified Adaptive Rank Truncated Product method suggested that genes and gene x Se status interactions in antioxidant, apoptosis, and TGF-beta signaling pathways may be associated with CRC risk. This study suggests that SNPs in the Se pathway alone or in combination with suboptimal Se status may contribute to CRC development.

CA19-9 and apolipoprotein-A2 isoforms as detection markers for pancreatic cancer: a prospective evaluation

Recently, we identified unique processing patterns of apolipoprotein A2 (ApoA2) in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our study provides a first prospective evaluation of an ApoA2 isoform ("ApoA2-ATQ/AT"), alone and in combination with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), as an early detection biomarker for pancreatic cancer. We performed ELISA measurements of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT in 156 patients with pancreatic cancer and 217 matched controls within the European EPIC cohort, using plasma samples collected up to 60 months prior to diagnosis. The detection discrimination statistics were calculated for risk scores by strata of lag-time. For CA19-9, in univariate marker analyses, C-statistics to distinguish future pancreatic cancer patients from cancer-free individuals were 0.80 for plasma taken ≤6 months before diagnosis, and 0.71 for >6-18 months; for ApoA2-ATQ/AT, C-statistics were 0.62, and 0.65, respectively. Joint models based on ApoA2-ATQ/AT plus CA19-9 significantly improved discrimination within >6-18 months (C = 0.74 vs. 0.71 for CA19-9 alone, p = 0.022) and ≤ 18 months (C = 0.75 vs. 0.74, p = 0.022). At 98% specificity, and for lag times of ≤6, >6-18 or ≤ 18 months, sensitivities were 57%, 36% and 43% for CA19-9 combined with ApoA2-ATQ/AT, respectively, vs. 50%, 29% and 36% for CA19-9 alone. Compared to CA19-9 alone, the combination of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT may improve detection of pancreatic cancer up to 18 months prior to diagnosis under usual care, and may provide a useful first measure for pancreatic cancer detection prior to imaging.

Dairy Product Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in EPIC-InterAct: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the causal association between intake of dairy products and incident type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The analysis included 21,820 European individuals (9,686 diabetes cases) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study. Participants were genotyped, and rs4988235 (LCT-12910C>T), a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for lactase persistence (LP) that enables digestion of dairy sugar, i.e., lactose, was imputed. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed with diet questionnaires. We investigated the associations between imputed SNP dosage for rs4988235 and intake of dairy products and other foods through linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates for the milk-diabetes relationship were obtained through a two-stage least squares regression.

RESULTS

Each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk (β 17.1 g/day, 95% CI 10.6-23.6) and milk beverages (β 2.8 g/day, 95% CI 1.0-4.5) but not with intake of other dairy products. Other dietary intakes associated with rs4988235 included fruits (β -7.0 g/day, 95% CI -12.4 to -1.7 per additional LP allele), nonalcoholic beverages (β -18.0 g/day, 95% CI -34.4 to -1.6), and wine (β -4.8 g/day, 95% CI -9.1 to -0.6). In instrumental variable analysis, LP-associated milk intake was not associated with diabetes (hazard ratioper 15 g/day 0.99, 95% CI 0.93-1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

rs4988235 was associated with milk intake but not with intake of other dairy products. This MR study does not suggest that milk intake is associated with diabetes, which is consistent with previous observational and genetic associations. LP may be associated with intake of other foods as well, but owing to the modest associations, we consider it unlikely that this caused the observed null result.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor I in relation to melanoma risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) regulates cell proliferation and apoptosis, and is thought to play a role in tumour development. Previous prospective studies have shown that higher circulating concentrations of IGF-I are associated with a higher risk of cancers at specific sites, including breast and prostate. No prospective study has examined the association between circulating IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk. A nested case-control study of 1,221 melanoma cases and 1,221 controls was performed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a prospective cohort of 520,000 participants recruited from 10 European countries. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for incident melanoma in relation to circulating IGF-I concentrations, measured by immunoassay. Analyses were conditioned on the matching factors and further adjusted for age at blood collection, education, height, BMI, smoking status, alcohol intake, marital status, physical activity and in women only, use of menopausal hormone therapy. There was no significant association between circulating IGF-I concentration and melanoma risk (OR for highest vs lowest fifth = 0.93 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71 to 1.22]). There was no significant heterogeneity in the association between IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk when subdivided by gender, age at blood collection, BMI, height, age at diagnosis, time between blood collection and diagnosis, or by anatomical site or histological subtype of the tumour (Pheterogeneity≥0.078). We found no evidence for an association between circulating concentrations of IGF-I measured in adulthood and the risk of melanoma.

Coffee and tea consumption and risk of prostate cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

The epidemiological evidence regarding the association of coffee and tea consumption with prostate cancer risk is inconclusive, and few cohort studies have assessed these associations by disease stage and grade. We examined the associations of coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea intake with prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 142,196 men, 7,036 incident prostate cancer cases were diagnosed over 14 years of follow-up. Data on coffee and tea consumption were collected through validated country-specific food questionnaires at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Models were stratified by center and age, and adjusted for anthropometric, lifestyle and dietary factors. Median coffee and tea intake were 375 and 106 mL/day, respectively, but large variations existed by country. Comparing the highest (median of 855 mL/day) versus lowest (median of 103 mL/day) consumers of coffee and tea (450 vs. 12 mL/day) the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.09) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.90-1.07) for risk of total prostate cancer and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.70-1.13) for risk of fatal disease, respectively. No evidence of association was seen for consumption of total, caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee or tea and risk of total prostate cancer or cancer by stage, grade or fatality in this large cohort. Further investigations are needed to clarify whether an association exists by different preparations or by concentrations and constituents of these beverages.

Circulating plasma phospholipid fatty acids and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large European cohort

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (ORT3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; ptrend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; ptrend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; ptrend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (ORT3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; ptrend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (ORT3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; ptrend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (ORT3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; ptrend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking.