Social network centrality predicts dietary decisions in a wild bird population

How individuals balance costs and benefits of group living remains central to understanding sociality. In relation to diet, social foraging provides many advantages but also increases competition. Nevertheless, social individuals may offset increased competition by broadening their diet and consuming novel foods. Despite the expected relationships between social behavior and dietary decisions, how sociality shapes individuals' novel food consumption remains largely untested in natural populations. Here, we use wild great tits to experimentally test how sociality predicts dietary decisions. We show that individuals with more social connections have higher propensity to use novel foods compared to socially peripheral individuals, and this is unrelated to neophobia, observations, and demographic factors. These findings indicate sociable individuals may offset potential costs of competition by foraging more broadly. We discuss how social environments may drive behavioral change in natural populations, and the implications for the causes and consequences of social strategies and dietary decisions.

The genomics of adaptation to climate in European great tit (Parus major) populations

The recognition that climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate means that there is increased urgency in understanding how organisms can adapt to a changing environment. Wild great tit (Parus major) populations represent an attractive ecological model system to understand the genomics of climate adaptation. They are widely distributed across Eurasia and they have been documented to respond to climate change. We performed a Bayesian genome-environment analysis, by combining local climate data with single nucleotide polymorphisms genotype data from 20 European populations (broadly spanning the species' continental range). We found 36 genes putatively linked to adaptation to climate. Following an enrichment analysis of biological process Gene Ontology (GO) terms, we identified over-represented terms and pathways among the candidate genes. Because many different genes and GO terms are associated with climate variables, it seems likely that climate adaptation is polygenic and genetically complex. Our findings also suggest that geographical climate adaptation has been occurring since great tits left their Southern European refugia at the end of the last ice age. Finally, we show that substantial climate-associated genetic variation remains, which will be essential for adaptation to future changes.

Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network

Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.

Variation in local population size predicts social network structure in wild songbirds

The structure of animal societies is a key determinant of many ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet, we know relatively little about the factors and mechanisms that underpin detailed social structure. Among other factors, social structure can be influenced by habitat configuration. By shaping animal movement decisions, heterogeneity in habitat features, such as vegetation and the availability of resources, can influence the spatiotemporal distribution of individuals and subsequently key socioecological properties such as the local population size and density. Differences in local population size and density can impact opportunities for social associations and may thus drive substantial variation in local social structure. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal variation in population size at 65 distinct locations in a small songbird, the great tit (Parus major) and its effect on social network structure. We first explored the within-location consistency of population size from weekly samples and whether the observed variation in local population size was predicted by the underlying habitat configuration. Next, we created social networks from the birds' foraging associations at each location for each week and examined if local population size affected social structure. We show that population size is highly repeatable within locations across weeks and years and that some of the observed variation in local population size was predicted by the underlying habitat, with locations closer to the forest edge having on average larger population sizes. Furthermore, we show that local population size affected social structure inferred by four global network metrics. Using simple simulations, we then reveal that much of the observed social structure is shaped by social processes. Across different population sizes, the birds' social structure was largely explained by their preference to forage in flocks. In addition, over and above effects of social foraging, social preferences between birds (i.e. social relationships) shaped certain network features such as the extent of realized social connections. Our findings thus suggest that individual social decisions substantially contribute to shaping certain social network features over and above effects of population size alone.

Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.

Social learning mechanisms shape transmission pathways through replicate local social networks of wild birds

The emergence and spread of novel behaviours via social learning can lead to rapid population-level changes whereby the social connections between individuals shape information flow. However, behaviours can spread via different mechanisms and little is known about how information flow depends on the underlying learning rule individuals employ. Here, comparing four different learning mechanisms, we simulated behavioural spread on replicate empirical social networks of wild great tits and explored the relationship between individual sociality and the order of behavioural acquisition. Our results reveal that, for learning rules dependent on the sum and strength of social connections to informed individuals, social connectivity was related to the order of acquisition, with individuals with increased social connectivity and reduced social clustering adopting new behaviours faster. However, when behavioural adoption depends on the ratio of an individuals' social connections to informed versus uninformed individuals, social connectivity was not related to the order of acquisition. Finally, we show how specific learning mechanisms may limit behavioural spread within networks. These findings have important implications for understanding whether and how behaviours are likely to spread across social systems, the relationship between individuals' sociality and behavioural acquisition, and therefore for the costs and benefits of sociality.

Temporal avoidance as a means of reducing competition between sympatric species

Human activity has modified the availability of natural resources and the abundance of species that rely on them, potentially changing interspecific competition dynamics. Here, we use large-scale automated data collection to quantify spatio-temporal competition among species with contrasting population trends. We focus on the spatial and temporal foraging behaviour of subordinate marsh tits Poecile palustris among groups of socially and numerically dominant blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus and great tits Parus major. The three species exploit similar food resources in mixed groups during autumn-winter. Using 421 077 winter recordings of individually marked birds at 65 automated feeding stations in Wytham Woods (Oxfordshire, UK), we found that marsh tits were less likely to join larger groups of heterospecifics, and they accessed food less frequently in larger groups than in smaller ones. Marsh tit numbers within groups declined throughout the diurnal and winter periods, while the number of blue and great tits increased. However, sites that attracted larger groups of these heterospecifics also attracted more marsh tits. The results suggest that subordinate species exhibit temporal avoidance of socially and numerically dominant heterospecifics, but have limited ability for spatial avoidance, indicating that behavioural plasticity enables only a partial reduction of interspecific competition.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Disentangling the causes of age‐assortative mating in bird populations with contrasting life‐history strategies

Age shapes fundamental processes related to behaviour, survival and reproduction, where age influences reproductive success, non-random mating with respect to age can magnify or mitigate such effects. Consequently, the correlation in partners' age across a population may influence its productivity. Despite widespread evidence for age-assortative mating, little is known about what drives this assortment and its variation. Specifically, the relative importance of active (same-age mate preference) and passive processes (assortment as a consequence of other spatial or temporal effects) in driving age assortment is not well understood. In this paper, we compare breeding data from a great tit and mute swan population (51- and 31-year datasets, respectively) to tease apart the contributions of pair retention, cohort age structure and active age-related mate selection to age assortment in species with contrasting life histories. Both species show age-assortative mating and variable assortment between years. However, we demonstrate that the drivers of age assortment differ between the species, as expected from their life histories and resultant demographic differences. In great tits, pair fidelity has a weak effect on age-assortative mating through pair retention; variation in age assortment is primarily driven by fluctuations in age structure from variable juvenile recruitment. Age-assortative mating is, therefore, largely passive, with no evidence consistent with active age-related mate selection. In mute swans, age assortment is partly explained by pair retention, but not population age structure, and evidence exists for active age-assortative pairing. This difference is likely to result from shorter life-spans in great tits compared with mute swans, leading to fundamental differences in their population age structure, whereby a larger proportion of great tit populations consist of a single age cohort. In mute swans, age-assortative pairing through mate selection may also be driven by greater age-dependent variation in fitness. The study highlights the importance of considering how different life histories and demographic differences arising from these affect population processes that appear congruent across species. We suggest that future research should focus on uncovering the proximate mechanisms that lead to variation in active age-assortative mate selection (as seen in mute swans); and the consequences of variation in age structure on the ecological and social functioning of wild populations.

Social phenotype-dependent selection of social environment in wild great and blue tits: an experimental study

There is growing evidence that individuals actively assess the match between their phenotype and their environment when making habitat choice decisions (so-called matching habitat choice). However, to our knowledge, no studies have considered how the social environment may interact with social phenotype in determining habitat choice, despite habitat choice being an inherently social process and growing evidence for individual variation in sociability. We conducted an experiment using wild great and blue tits to understand how birds integrate their social phenotype and social environment when choosing where and how to feed. We used programmable feeders to (i) record social interactions and estimate social phenotype, and (ii) experimentally manipulate the local density experienced by birds of differing social phenotype. By tracking feeder usage, we estimated how social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder choice and feeding behaviour. Both social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder usage, but a bird's decision to remain in a particular social environment did not depend on their social phenotype. By contrast, for feeding behaviour, responses to the social environment depended on social phenotype. Our results provide rare evidence of matching habitat choice and shed light on the dependence of habitat choice on between-individual differences in social phenotype.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Drivers of passive leadership in wild songbirds: species-level differences and spatio-temporally dependent intraspecific effects

Abstract

Collective behaviors are typical for many social species and can have fitness benefits for participating individuals. To maximize the benefits obtained from group living, individuals must coordinate their behaviors to some extent. What are the mechanisms that make certain individuals more likely to initiate collective behaviors, for example, by taking a risk to initially access a resource (i.e., to act as “leaders”)? Here, we examine leading behavior in a natural population of great tits and blue tits. We use automated feeding stations to monitor the feeder visits of tagged individuals within mixed-species flocks, with a small cost (waiting < 2 s) associated with the initial unlocking of the feeder. We find that great tits, males, and individuals with high activity levels were more likely to be leading in each of their feeder visits. Using a null model approach, we demonstrate that the effects of sex and activity on passive leading behavior can be explained by patterns of spatial and temporal occurrence. In other words, these effects can be explained by the times and locations of when individuals visit rather than the actual order of arrival. Hence, an analysis of the causes of leading behavior is needed to separate the effects of different processes. We highlight the importance of understanding the mechanisms behind leading behavior and discuss directions for future experimental work to gain a better understanding of the causes of leadership in natural populations.

Significance statement

Many species are social and engage in collective behaviors. To benefit from group actions, individuals need to fulfill different roles. Here, we examine leading behavior during feeding events; who feeds first when birds arrive at a resource? In mixed-species flocks of passerines, great tits (the larger and more dominant species), males, and individuals with higher levels of activity lead more often than blue tits, females, and individuals with lower levels of activity. While the species effect remains even when we control for the locations and dates of individual feeder visits, the effects of sex and activity are dependent on when and where birds choose to feed.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Human activity shapes the wintering ecology of a migratory bird

Human behavior profoundly affects the natural world. Migratory birds are particularly susceptible to adverse effects of human activities because the global networks of ecosystems on which birds rely are undergoing rapid change. In spite of these challenges, the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) is a thriving migratory species. Its recent establishment of high-latitude wintering areas in Britain and Ireland has been linked to climate change and backyard bird feeding, exemplifying the interaction between human activity and migrant ecology. To understand how anthropogenic influences shape avian movements and ecology, we marked 623 wintering blackcaps at 59 sites across Britain and Ireland and compiled a dataset of 9929 encounters. We investigated visitation behavior at garden feeding sites, inter-annual site fidelity, and movements within and across seasons. We analyzed migration tracks from 25 geolocators fitted to a subset of individuals to understand how garden behavior may impact subsequent migration and breeding. We found that blackcaps wintering in Britain and Ireland showed high site fidelity and low transience among wintering sites, in contrast to the itinerant movements characteristic of blackcaps wintering in their traditional winter range. First-winter birds showed lower site fidelity and a greater likelihood of transience than adults. Adults that frequented gardens had better body condition, smaller fat stores, longer bills, and rounder wingtips. However, blackcaps did not exclusively feed in gardens; visits were linked to harsher weather. Individuals generally stayed at garden sites until immediately before spring departure. Our results suggest that supplementary feeding is modifying blackcap winter ecology and driving morphological evolution. Supplemental feeding may have multifaceted benefits on winter survival, and these positive effects may carry over to migration and subsequent breeding. Overall, the high individual variability in blackcap movement and foraging ecology, and the flexibility it imparts, may have allowed this species to flourish during rapid environmental change.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Individual variability and versatility in an eco-evolutionary model of avian migration

Seasonal migration is a complex and variable behaviour with the potential to promote reproductive isolation. In Eurasian blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla), a migratory divide in central Europe separating populations with southwest (SW) and southeast (SE) autumn routes may facilitate isolation, and individuals using new wintering areas in Britain show divergence from Mediterranean winterers. We tracked 100 blackcaps in the wild to characterize these strategies. Blackcaps to the west and east of the divide used predominantly SW and SE directions, respectively, but close to the contact zone many individuals took intermediate (S) routes. At 14.0° E, we documented a sharp transition from SW to SE migratory directions across only 27 (10-86) km, implying a strong selection gradient across the divide. Blackcaps wintering in Britain took northwesterly migration routes from continental European breeding grounds. They originated from a surprisingly extensive area, spanning 2000 km of the breeding range. British winterers bred in sympatry with SW-bound migrants but arrived 9.8 days earlier on the breeding grounds, suggesting some potential for assortative mating by timing. Overall, our data reveal complex variation in songbird migration and suggest that selection can maintain variation in migration direction across short distances while enabling the spread of a novel strategy across a wide range.

Social learning of acoustic anti-predator cues occurs between wild bird species

In many species, individuals gather information about their environment both through direct experience and through information obtained from others. Social learning, or the acquisition of information from others, can occur both within and between species and may facilitate the rapid spread of antipredator behaviour. Within birds, acoustic signals are frequently used to alert others to the presence of predators, and individuals can quickly learn to associate novel acoustic cues with predation risk. However, few studies have addressed whether such learning occurs only though direct experience or whether it has a social component, nor whether such learning can occur between species. We investigate these questions in two sympatric species of Parids: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major). Using playbacks of unfamiliar bird vocalizations paired with a predator model in a controlled aviary setting, we find that blue tits can learn to associate a novel sound with predation risk via direct experience, and that antipredator response to the sound can be socially transmitted to heterospecific observers, despite lack of first-hand experience. Our results suggest that social learning of acoustic cues can occur between species. Such interspecific social information transmission may help to mediate the formation of mixed-species aggregations.

Partner’s age, not social environment, predicts extrapair paternity in wild great tits (Parus major)

An individual’s fitness is not only influenced by its own phenotype, but by the phenotypes of interacting conspecifics. This is likely to be particularly true when considering fitness gains and losses caused by extrapair matings, as they depend directly on the social environment. While previous work has explored effects of dyadic interactions, limited understanding exists regarding how group-level characteristics of the social environment affect extrapair paternity (EPP) and cuckoldry. We use a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to examine how, in addition to the phenotypes of focal parents, two neighborhood-level traits—age and personality composition—predict EPP and cuckoldry. We used the well-studied trait “exploration behavior” as a measure of the reactive-proactive personality axis. Because breeding pairs inhabit a continuous “social landscape,” we first established an ecologically relevant definition of a breeding “neighborhood” through genotyping parents and nestlings in a 51-ha patch of woodland and assessing the spatial predictors of EPP events. Using the observed decline in likelihood of EPP with increasing spatial separation between nests, we determined the relevant neighborhood boundaries, and thus the group phenotypic composition of an individual’s neighborhood, by calculating the point at which the likelihood of EPP became negligible. We found no evidence that “social environment” effects (i.e., neighborhood age or personality composition) influenced EPP or cuckoldry. We did, however, find that a female’s own age influenced the EPP of her social mate, with males paired to older females gaining more EPP, even when controlling for the social environment. These findings suggest that partner characteristics, rather than group phenotypic composition, influence mating activity patterns at the individual level.

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools

Changes in the timing of life-history events (phenology) are a widespread consequence of climate change. Predicting population resilience requires knowledge of how phenology is likely to change over time, which can be gained by identifying the specific environmental cues that drive phenological events. Cue identification is often achieved with statistical testing of candidate cues. As the number of methods used to generate predictions increases, assessing the predictive accuracy of different approaches has become necessary. This study aims to (a) provide an empirical illustration of the predictive ability of five commonly applied statistical methods for cue identification (absolute and relative sliding time window analyses, penalized signal regression, climate sensitivity profiles and a growing degree-day model) and (b) discuss approaches for implementing cue identification methods in different systems. Using a dataset of mean clutch initiation timing in wild great tits (Parus major), we explored how the days of the year identified as most important, and the aggregate statistic identified as a cue, differed between statistical methods and with respect to the time span of data used. Each method's predictive capacity was tested using cross-validation and assessed for robustness to varying sample size. We show that the identified critical time window of cue sensitivity was consistent across four of the five methods. The accuracy and precision of predictions differed by method with penalized signal regression resulting in the most accurate and most precise predictions in our case. Accuracy was maximal for near-future predictions and showed a relationship with time. The difference between predictions and observations systematically shifted across the study from preceding observations to lagging. This temporal trend in prediction error suggests that the current statistical tools either fail to capture a key component of the cue-phenology relationship, or the relationship itself is changing through time in our system. These two influences need to be teased apart if we are to generate realistic predictions of phenological change. We recommend future phenological studies to challenge the idea of a static cue-phenology relationship and should cross-validate results across multiple time periods.

Accounting for interspecific competition and age structure in demographic analyses of density dependence improves predictions of fluctuations in population size

Understanding species coexistence has long been a major goal of ecology. Coexistence theory for two competing species posits that intraspecific density dependence should be stronger than interspecific density dependence. Great tits and blue tits are two bird species that compete for food resources and nesting cavities. On the basis of long-term monitoring of these two competing species at sites across Europe, combining observational and manipulative approaches, we show that the strength of density regulation is similar for both species, and that individuals have contrasting abilities to compete depending on their age. For great tits, density regulation is driven mainly by intraspecific competition. In contrast, for blue tits, interspecific competition contributes as much as intraspecific competition, consistent with asymmetric competition between the two species. In addition, including age-specific effects of intra- and interspecific competition in density-dependence models improves predictions of fluctuations in population size by up to three times.

Movement and conformity interact to establish local behavioural traditions in animal populations

The social transmission of information is critical to the emergence of animal culture. Two processes are predicted to play key roles in how socially-transmitted information spreads in animal populations: the movement of individuals across the landscape and conformist social learning. We develop a model that, for the first time, explicitly integrates these processes to investigate their impacts on the spread of behavioural preferences. Our results reveal a strong interplay between movement and conformity in determining whether locally-variable traditions establish across a landscape or whether a single preference dominates the whole population. The model is able to replicate a real-world cultural diffusion experiment in great tits Parus major, but also allows for a range of predictions for the emergence of animal culture under various initial conditions, habitat structure and strength of conformist bias to be made. Integrating social behaviour with ecological variation will be important for understanding the stability and diversity of culture in animals.

Personality shapes pair bonding in a wild bird social system

Mated pair bonds are integral to many animal societies, yet how individual variation in behaviour influences their formation remains largely unknown. In a population of wild great tits (Parus major), we show that personality shapes pair bonding: proactive males formed stronger pre-breeding pair bonds by meeting their future partners sooner and increasing their relationship strength at a faster rate. As a result, proactive males sampled fewer potential mates. Thus, personality may have important implications for social relationship dynamics and emergent social structure.

Indirectly connected: simple social differences can explain the causes and apparent consequences of complex social network positions

Animal societies are often structurally complex. How individuals are positioned within the wider social network (i.e. their indirect social connections) has been shown to be repeatable, heritable and related to key life-history variables. Yet, there remains a general lack of understanding surrounding how complex network positions arise, whether they indicate active multifaceted social decisions by individuals, and how natural selection could act on this variation. We use simulations to assess how variation in simple social association rules between individuals can determine their positions within emerging social networks. Our results show that metrics of individuals' indirect connections can be more strongly related to underlying simple social differences than metrics of their dyadic connections. External influences causing network noise (typical of animal social networks) generally inflated these differences. The findings demonstrate that relationships between complex network positions and other behaviours or fitness components do not provide sufficient evidence for the presence, or importance, of complex social behaviours, even if direct network metrics provide less explanatory power than indirect ones. Interestingly however, a plausible and straightforward heritable basis for complex network positions can arise from simple social differences, which in turn creates potential for selection to act on indirect connections.

A high-density SNP chip for genotyping great tit (Parus major) populations and its application to studying the genetic architecture of exploration behaviour

High-density SNP microarrays ("SNP chips") are a rapid, accurate and efficient method for genotyping several hundred thousand polymorphisms in large numbers of individuals. While SNP chips are routinely used in human genetics and in animal and plant breeding, they are less widely used in evolutionary and ecological research. In this article, we describe the development and application of a high-density Affymetrix Axiom chip with around 500,000 SNPs, designed to perform genomics studies of great tit (Parus major) populations. We demonstrate that the per-SNP genotype error rate is well below 1% and that the chip can also be used to identify structural or copy number variation. The chip is used to explore the genetic architecture of exploration behaviour (EB), a personality trait that has been widely studied in great tits and other species. No SNPs reached genomewide significance, including at DRD4, a candidate gene. However, EB is heritable and appears to have a polygenic architecture. Researchers developing similar SNP chips may note: (i) SNPs previously typed on alternative platforms are more likely to be converted to working assays; (ii) detecting SNPs by more than one pipeline, and in independent data sets, ensures a high proportion of working assays; (iii) allele frequency ascertainment bias is minimized by performing SNP discovery in individuals from multiple populations; and (iv) samples with the lowest call rates tend to also have the greatest genotyping error rates.

Recent natural selection causes adaptive evolution of an avian polygenic trait

We used extensive data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major) in the United Kingdom and Netherlands to better understand how genetic signatures of selection translate into variation in fitness and phenotypes. We found that genomic regions under differential selection contained candidate genes for bill morphology and used genetic architecture analyses to confirm that these genes, especially the collagen gene COL4A5, explained variation in bill length. COL4A5 variation was associated with reproductive success, which, combined with spatiotemporal patterns of bill length, suggested ongoing selection for longer bills in the United Kingdom. Last, bill length and COL4A5 variation were associated with usage of feeders, suggesting that longer bills may have evolved in the United Kingdom as a response to supplementary feeding.

Antibody responses to avian influenza viruses in wild birds broaden with age

For viruses such as avian influenza, immunity within a host population can drive the emergence of new strains by selecting for viruses with novel antigens that avoid immune recognition. The accumulation of acquired immunity with age is hypothesized to affect how influenza viruses emerge and spread in species of different lifespans. Despite its importance for understanding the behaviour of avian influenza viruses, little is known about age-related accumulation of immunity in the virus's primary reservoir, wild birds. To address this, we studied the age structure of immune responses to avian influenza virus in a wild swan population (Cygnus olor), before and after the population experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in 2008. We performed haemagglutination inhibition assays on sampled sera for five avian influenza strains and show that breadth of response accumulates with age. The observed age-related distribution of antibody responses to avian influenza strains may explain the age-dependent mortality observed during the highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreak. Age structures and species lifespan are probably important determinants of viral epidemiology and virulence in birds.

Pathways of information transmission among wild songbirds follow experimentally imposed changes in social foraging structure

Animals regularly use information from others to shape their decisions. Yet, determining how changes in social structure affect information flow and social learning strategies has remained challenging. We manipulated the social structure of a large community of wild songbirds by controlling which individuals could feed together at automated feeding stations (selective feeders). We then provided novel ephemeral food patches freely accessible to all birds and recorded the spread of this new information. We demonstrate that the discovery of new food patches followed the experimentally imposed social structure and that birds disproportionately learnt from those whom they could forage with at the selective feeders. The selective feeders reduced the number of conspecific information sources available and birds subsequently increased their use of information provided by heterospecifics. Our study demonstrates that changes to social systems carry over into pathways of information transfer and that individuals learn from tutors that provide relevant information in other contexts.

Incubation behavior adjustments, driven by ambient temperature variation, improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar peak in a wild bird population

For organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54‐year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in‐nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.

Investigating the effects of age-related spatial structuring on the transmission of a tick-borne virus in a colonially breeding host

Higher pathogen and parasite transmission is considered a universal cost of colonial breeding due to the physical proximity of colony members. However, this has rarely been tested in natural colonies, which are structured entities, whose members interact with a subset of individuals and differ in their infection histories. We use a population of common guillemots, Uria aalge, infected by a tick-borne virus, Great Island virus, to explore how age-related spatial structuring can influence the infection costs borne by different members of a breeding colony. Previous work has shown that the per-susceptible risk of infection (force of infection) is different for prebreeding (immature) and breeding (adult) guillemots which occupy different areas of the colony. We developed a mathematical model which showed that this difference in infection risk can only be maintained if mixing between these age groups is low. To estimate mixing between age groups, we recorded the movements of 63 individually recognizable, prebreeding guillemots in four different parts of a major colony in the North Sea during the breeding season. Prebreeding guillemots infrequently entered breeding areas (in only 26% of watches), though with marked differences in frequency of entry among individuals and more entries toward the end of the breeding season. Once entered, the proportion of time spent in breeding areas by prebreeding guillemots also varied between different parts of the colony. Our data and model predictions indicate low levels of age-group mixing, limiting exposure of breeding guillemots to infection. However, they also suggest that prebreeding guillemots have the potential to play an important role in driving infection dynamics. This highlights the sensitivity of breeding colonies to changes in the behavior of their members-a subject of particular importance in the context of global environmental change.

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.