Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in adults with new-onset diabetes: development and internal-external validation of a clinical risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that people aged 60+ years with newly diagnosed diabetes and weight loss undergo abdominal imaging to assess for pancreatic cancer. More nuanced stratification could lead to enrichment of these referral pathways.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study of adults aged 30-85 years at type 2 diabetes diagnosis (2010-2021) using the QResearch primary care database in England linked to secondary care data, the national cancer registry and mortality registers. Clinical prediction models were developed to estimate risks of pancreatic cancer diagnosis within 2 years and evaluated using internal-external cross-validation.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and sixty-seven of 253,766 individuals were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 2 years. Models included age, sex, BMI, prior venous thromboembolism, digoxin prescription, HbA1c, ALT, creatinine, haemoglobin, platelet count; and the presence of abdominal pain, weight loss, jaundice, heartburn, indigestion or nausea (previous 6 months). The Cox model had the highest discrimination (Harrell's C-index 0.802 (95% CI: 0.797-0.817)), the highest clinical utility, and was well calibrated. The model's highest 1% of predicted risks captured 12.51% of pancreatic cancer cases. NICE guidance had 3.95% sensitivity.

DISCUSSION

A new prediction model could have clinical utility in identifying individuals with recent onset diabetes suitable for fast-track abdominal imaging.

Effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccination in people with blood cancer

BACKGROUND

People with blood cancer have increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes and poor response to vaccination. We assessed the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in this vulnerable group compared to the general population.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥12 years as of 1st December 2020 in the QResearch primary care database were included. We assessed adjusted COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in people with blood cancer using a nested matched case-control study. Using the self-controlled case series methodology, we compared the risk of 56 pre-specified adverse events within 1-28 days of a first, second or third COVID-19 vaccine dose in people with and without blood cancer.

FINDINGS

The cohort comprised 12,274,948 individuals, of whom 81,793 had blood cancer. COVID-19 vaccines were protective against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in people with blood cancer, although they were less effective, particularly against COVID-19-related hospitalisation, compared to the general population. In the blood cancer population, aVE against COVID-19-related hospitalisation was 64% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48%-75%) 14-41 days after a third dose, compared to 80% (95% CI 78%-81%) in the general population. Against COVID-19-related mortality, aVE was >80% in people with blood cancer 14-41 days after a second or third dose. We found no significant difference in risk of adverse events 1-28 days after any vaccine dose between people with and without blood cancer.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides robust evidence which supports the use of COVID-19 vaccinations for people with blood cancer.

Causal associations of central and peripheral risk factors with knee osteoarthritis: a longitudinal and Mendelian Randomisation study using UK Biobank data

ABSTRACT

Our aim was to investigate relative contributions of central and peripheral mechanisms to knee osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis and their independent causal association with knee OA. We performed longitudinal analysis using data from UK-Biobank participants. Knee OA was defined using International Classification of Diseases manual 10 codes from participants' hospital records. Central mechanisms were proxied using multisite chronic pain (MCP) and peripheral mechanisms using body mass index (BMI). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated, and proportional risk contribution (PRC) was estimated from receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. To estimate the causal effects, we performed 2-sample multivariable Mendelian Randomisation (MR) analysis. We selected genetic instruments from the largest Genome Wide Association Study of BMI (N = 806,834) and MCP (N = 387,649) and estimated the instruments genetic associations with knee OA in the largest available dataset (62,497 cases and 333,557 control subjects). The multivariable MR was performed using modified inverse-variance weighting methods. Of the 203,410 participants, 6% developed knee OA. Both MCP (OR 1.23, 95% CI; 1.21-1.24) and BMI (1.10, 95% CI; 1.10-1.11) were associated with knee OA diagnosis. The PRC was 6.9% (95% CI; 6.7%-7.1%) for MCP and 21.9% (95% CI; 21.4%-22.5%) for BMI; the combined PRC was 38.8% (95% CI; 37.9%-39.8%). Body mass index and MCP had independent causal effects on knee OA (OR 1.76 [95% CI, 1.64-1.88] and 1.83 [95% CI, 1.54-2.16] per unit change, respectively). In conclusion, peripheral risk factors (eg, BMI) contribute more to the development of knee OA than central risk factors (eg, MCP). Peripheral and central factors are independently causal on knee OA.

Fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic - prevalence and predictors: findings from a prospective cohort study

The COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns had a substantial impact on mental health. Distress and fatigue are highly correlated. However, little is known about the determinants of fatigue in the general population during the pandemic. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and predictors of fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK population. Online surveys were completed by a UK community cohort in April 2020 (wave 1), July-September 2020 (wave 2) and November-December 2020 (wave 3). In total, 3097 participants completed the wave 1 survey, and 1385 and 1087 participants (85.4% women) completed wave 2 and 3 surveys respectively. Fatigue was assessed using the Chalder Fatigue Scale at waves 2 and 3. Hair samples were provided by 827 participants (90.6% women) at wave 1 and wave 2, which were analyzed to indicate HairE (stress hormone). The mean total fatigue score during wave 2 was 14.7 (SD = 4.7), significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels observed in the community (mean difference 0.50, p = .003). At wave 2, 614 (44.3%) participants met the case definition for fatigue, only 15.6% of whom indicated that fatigue lasted for more than 6 months (suggesting it had started prior to the pandemic). Predictors of fatigue at wave 3 included being in a risk group, depression and belief in having COVID-19, which explained 23.8% of the variability in fatigue scores. Depression at wave 1 was the only significant predictor of remaining a fatigue case at wave 3. Fatigue was highly prevalent in the UK community during the COVID-19 pandemic and limited people's daily function. Depression and sociodemographic variables were significant predictors of fatigue.

Causal association between subtypes of osteoarthritis and common comorbidities: A Mendelian randomisation study

Objective

To investigate the causal association between Osteoarthritis (OA) and five comorbidities: depression, tiredness, multisite chronic pain, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and gout.

Design

This study used two-sample Mendelian Randomisation (MR). To select the OA genetic instruments, we used data from the largest recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of OA (GO Consortium), with a focus on OA of the knee (62,497 cases, 333,557 controls), hip (35,445 cases, 316,943 controls) and hand (20,901 cases, 282,881 controls). Genetic associations for comorbidities were selected from GWAS for depression (246,363 cases, 561,190 controls), tiredness (449,019 participants), multisite chronic pain (387,649 participants), IBS (53,400 cases, 433,201 controls) and gout (6543 cases, 456,390 controls). We performed a bidirectional MR analysis using the inverse variance weighted method, for both joint specific and overall OA.

Results

Hip OA had a causal effect on multisite chronic pain (per unit change 0.02, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.04). Multisite chronic pain had a causal effect on knee (odd ratio (OR) 2.74, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.41), hip (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.92), hand (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.16) and overall OA (OR 2.44, 95% CI, 2.06 to 2.86). In addition, depression and tiredness had causal effects on knee and hand, but not hip, OA.

Conclusions

Apart from Hip OA to multisite chronic pain, other joint OA did not have causal effects on these comorbidities. In contrast, multisite chronic pain had a causal effect on any painful OA.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Seasonal trends in antidepressant prescribing, depression, anxiety and self-harm in adolescents and young adults: an open cohort study using English primary care data

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing demand for mental health services for young people, which may vary across the year.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there are seasonal patterns in primary care antidepressant prescribing and mental health issues in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

This cohort study used anonymised electronic health records from general practices in England contributing to QResearch. It included 5 081 263 males and females aged 14-18 (adolescents), 19-23 and 24-28 years between 2006 and 2019. The incidence rates per 1000 person-years and the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for the first records of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) prescription, depression, anxiety and self-harm. The IRRs were adjusted for year, region, deprivation, ethnic group and number of working days.

FINDINGS

There was an increase in SSRI prescribing, depression and anxiety incidence in male and female adolescents in the autumn months (September-November) that was not seen in older age groups. The IRRs for SSRI prescribing for adolescents peaked in November (females: 1.75, 95% CI 1.67 to 1.83, p<0.001; males: 1.72, 95% CI 1.61 to 1.84, p<0.001, vs in January) and for depression (females: 1.29, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.33, p<0.001; males: 1.29, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.35, p<0.001). Anxiety peaked in November for females aged 14-18 years (1.17, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.22, p<0.001) and in September for males (1.19, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.27, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There were higher rates of antidepressant prescribing and consultations for depression and anxiety at the start of the school year among adolescents.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Support around mental health issues from general practitioners and others should be focused during autumn.

Development and validation of a novel risk prediction algorithm to estimate 10-year risk of oesophageal cancer in primary care: prospective cohort study and evaluation of performance against two other risk prediction models

Background

Methods to identify patients at increased risk of oesophageal cancer are needed to better identify those for targeted screening. We aimed to derive and validate novel risk prediction algorithms (CanPredict) to estimate the 10-year risk of oesophageal cancer and evaluate performance against two other risk prediction models.

Methods

Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from 1804 QResearch® general practices. We used 1354 practices (12.9 M patients) to develop the algorithm. We validated the algorithm in 450 separate practices from QResearch (4.12 M patients) and 355 Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) practices (2.53 M patients). The primary outcome was an incident diagnosis of oesophageal cancer found in GP, mortality, hospital, or cancer registry data. Patients were aged 25-84 years and free of oesophageal cancer at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used with prediction selection to derive risk equations. Risk factors included age, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation score, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol, family history, relevant co-morbidities and medications. Measures of calibration, discrimination, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated in the validation cohorts.

Finding

There were 16,384 incident cases of oesophageal cancer in the derivation cohort (0.13% of 12.9 M). The predictors in the final algorithms were: age, BMI, Townsend deprivation score, smoking, alcohol, ethnicity, Barrett's oesophagus, hiatus hernia, H. pylori infection, use of proton pump inhibitors, anaemia, lung and blood cancer (with breast cancer in women). In the QResearch validation cohort in women the explained variation (R2) was 57.1%; Royston's D statistic 2.36 (95% CI 2.26-2.46); C statistic 0.859 (95% CI 0.849-0.868) and calibration was good. Results were similar in men. For the 20% at highest predicted risk, the sensitivity was 76%, specificity was 80.1% and the observed risk at 10 years was 0.76%. The results from the CPRD validation were similar.

Interpretation

We have developed and validated a novel prediction algorithm to quantify the absolute risk of oesophageal cancer. The CanPredict algorithms could be used to identify high risk patients for targeted screening.

Funding

Innovate UK and CRUK (grant 105857).

Seasonal trends in antidepressant prescribing, depression, anxiety, and self-harm in adolescents and young adults: an open cohort study using UK primary care data

BACKGROUND

Weather and seasons, or stressful periods associated with their education could affect young people's mental health. Members of a young person's advisory group asked us to investigate whether there are particular periods in the year when adolescents have more mental health issues.

AIM

To examine whether there are different seasonal trends in antidepressant prescribing, depression, anxiety, and self-harm in adolescents compared with young adults in England.

METHOD

We used information about antidepressant prescribing and mental health events between 2006 and 2019 from the QResearch database, which contains anonymised English primary care health records. We studied males and females in three age groups: 14-18 years (adolescents), 19-23 years and 24-28 years. We calculated monthly incidence rates and adjusted incidence rate ratios of prescriptions for the most commonly prescribed antidepressants (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors) and records of depression, anxiety, and self-harm.

RESULTS

The study included 5 081 263 people over 17.9 million person-years. Antidepressant prescribing, depression, and anxiety incidence rates were higher in autumn months for adolescents, but not for the older groups. Self-harm was lowest in August for adolescents, lower in July-December for 19-23-year-old females, and stable throughout the year for other groups.

CONCLUSION

There were higher rates of antidepressant prescribing, depression, and anxiety at the start of the school year in adolescents. Support around mental health issues from GPs and schools should be focused during this period. Future studies should examine whether these results apply to younger children and develop interventions to lessen their impacts on adolescents.

Observational study assessing the frequency and impact of medication reviews in UK primary care for people aged ≥65 years

BACKGROUND

Medication reviews are considered an opportunity for reducing polypharmacy. However, there is little evidence about their impact in a real-world setting.

AIM

To quantify numbers of older adults having a medication review in 2019, identify systematic differences in access to medication reviews, and assess the impact of medication reviews on the numbers of medicines prescribed.

METHOD

We defined a population of people aged ≥65 years with at least one active prescription on 01/01/2019 using anonymised electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We used Cox regression to compare characteristics of people who did and did not have a medication review recorded in their health records in 2019. We compared the maximum number of concurrent prescriptions ('polypharmacy count') in the 3 months before and after a recorded medication review.

RESULTS

Of 591 552 people (median age = 74 years, 54.5% female), 305 503 (51.6%) had a medication review in 2019. Living in a care home (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.40 to 1.62), a prior medication review in 2018 (HR 1.83, 95% CI = 1.69 to 1.98), and increasing baseline polypharmacy count (5-9 medicines versus 1 medicine HR 1.41, 95% CI = 1.37 to 1.46) were most strongly associated with having a review. Overall, there was a small mean increase in polypharmacy count after a review (+0.13 medicines, 0.12-0.14). For people prescribed ≥10 medicines before the review, polypharmacy count decreased on average (mean -0.14 medicines, -0.15 to -0.12).

CONCLUSION

Although a majority (>50%) of people had a recorded medication review in 2019, these reviews had a small overall impact on polypharmacy in this study population.

Healthcare utilisation and mortality in people with osteoarthritis in the UK: findings from a national primary care database

BACKGROUND

The burden of osteoarthritis (OA) in UK primary care has not been investigated thoroughly.

AIM

To estimate healthcare use and mortality in people with OA (overall and joint specific).

DESIGN AND SETTING

A matched cohort study of adults with an incident diagnosis of OA in primary care were selected for the study using UK national Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic records.

METHOD

Healthcare utilisation was measured as the annual average number of primary care consultations and admissions to hospital after the index date for any cause and all-cause mortality data in 221 807 people with OA and an equal number of controls (with no OA diagnosis) who were matched to the case patients by age (standard deviation 2 years), sex, practice, and year of registration. The associations between OA and healthcare utilisation and all-cause mortality were estimated using multinomial logistic regression and Cox regression, respectively, adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

The mean age of the study population was 61 years and 58% were female. In the OA group, the median number of primary care consultations per year after the index date was 10.91 compared with 9.43 in the non-OA control group (P = 0.001) OA was associated with an increased risk of GP consultation and admission to hospital. The adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.85 to 1.93) for any OA, 2.09 (95% CI = 2.01 to 2.19) for knee OA, 2.08 (95% CI = 1.95 to 2.21) for hip OA, and 1.80 (95% CI = 1.58 to 2.06) for wrist/hand OA, compared with the respective non-OA control group.

CONCLUSION

People with OA had increased rates of GP consultations, admissions to hospital, and all-cause mortality that varied across joint sites.

Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in people with blood cancer: Population-level cohort study of 12 million patients in England

BACKGROUND

People with blood cancers have increased risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 and were prioritised for vaccination.

METHODS

Individuals in the QResearch database aged 12 years and above on 1st December 2020 were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis described time to COVID-19 vaccine uptake in people with blood cancer and other high-risk disorders. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with vaccine uptake in people with blood cancer.

RESULTS

The analysis included 12,274,948 individuals, of whom 97,707 had a blood cancer diagnosis. 92% of people with blood cancer received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 80% of the general population, but there was lower uptake of each subsequent vaccine dose (31% for fourth dose). Vaccine uptake decreased with social deprivation (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.70, 0.74 for most deprived versus most affluent quintile for first vaccine). Compared with White groups, uptake of all vaccine doses was significantly lower in people of Pakistani and Black ethnicity, and more people in these groups remain unvaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccine uptake declines following second dose and there are ethnic and social disparities in uptake in blood cancer populations. Enhanced communication of benefits of vaccination to these groups is needed.

Cost-effectiveness of England's national 'Safe At Home' scheme for reducing hospital admissions for unintentional injury in children aged under 5

BACKGROUND

Injuries in children aged under 5 years most commonly occur in the home and disproportionately affect those living in the most disadvantaged communities. The 'Safe at Home' (SAH) national home safety equipment scheme, which ran in England between 2009 and 2011, has been shown to reduce injury-related hospital admissions, but there is little evidence of cost-effectiveness.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis from a health and local government perspective. Measures were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per hospital admission averted (ICER) and cost-offset ratio (COR), comparing SAH expenditure to savings in admission expenditure. The study period was split into three periods: T1 (years 0-2, implementation); T2 (years 3-4) and T3 (years 5-6). Analyses were conducted for T2 versus T1 and T3 versus T1.

RESULTS

Total cost of SAH was £9 518 066. 202 223 hospital admissions in the children occurred during T1-3, costing £3 320 000. Comparing T3 to T1 SAH reduced admission expenditure by £924 per month per local authority and monthly admission rates by 0.5 per local authority per month compared with control areas. ICER per admission averted was £4209 for T3 versus T1, with a COR of £0.29, suggesting that 29p was returned in savings on admission expenditure for every pound spent on SAH.

CONCLUSION

SAH was effective at reducing hospital admissions due to injury and did result in some cost recovery when taking into admissions only. Further analysis of its cost-effectiveness, including emergency healthcare, primary care attendances and wider societal costs, is likely to improve the return on investment further.

Factors influencing influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal in older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in England

OBJECTIVES

Uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccines in older adults vary across regions and socioeconomic backgrounds. In this study, we study the coverage and factors associated with vaccination uptake, as well as refusal in the unvaccinated population and their associations with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This is a cross-sectional study of adults aged 65 years or older in England, using a large primary care database. Associations of vaccine uptake and refusal in the unvaccinated with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions were modelled using multivariable logistic regression.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal (in the unvaccinated).

RESULTS

This study included 2 054 463 patients from 1318 general practices. 1 711 465 (83.3%) received at least one influenza vaccine, 1 391 228 (67.7%) pneumococcal vaccine and 690 783 (53.4%) shingles vaccine. Compared with White ethnicity, influenza vaccine uptake was lower in Chinese (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.53), 'Other ethnic' groups (0.63; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.65), black Caribbean (0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) and black African (0.72; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77). There was generally lower vaccination uptake among more deprived individuals, people living in larger household sizes (three or more persons) and those with fewer health conditions. Among those who were unvaccinated, higher odds of refusal were associated with the black Caribbean ethnic group and marginally with increased deprivation, but not associated with higher refusal in those living in large households or those with lesser health conditions.

CONCLUSION

Certain ethnic minority groups, deprived populations, large households and 'healthier' individuals were less likely to receive a vaccine, although higher refusal was only associated with ethnicity and deprivation but not larger households nor healthier individuals. Understanding these may inform tailored public health messaging to different communities for equitable implementation of vaccination programmes.

Temporality of body mass index, blood tests, comorbidities and medication use as early markers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC): a nested case-control study

OBJECTIVE

Prior studies identified clinical factors associated with increased risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, little is known regarding their time-varying nature, which could inform earlier diagnosis. This study assessed temporality of body mass index (BMI), blood-based markers, comorbidities and medication use with PDAC risk .

DESIGN

We performed a population-based nested case-control study of 28 137 PDAC cases and 261 219 matched-controls in England. We described the associations of biomarkers with risk of PDAC using fractional polynomials and 5-year time trends using joinpoint regression. Associations with comorbidities and medication use were evaluated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Risk of PDAC increased with raised HbA1c, liver markers, white blood cell and platelets, while following a U-shaped relationship for BMI and haemoglobin. Five-year trends showed biphasic BMI decrease and HbA1c increase prior to PDAC; early-gradual changes 2-3 years prior, followed by late-rapid changes 1-2 years prior. Liver markers and blood counts (white blood cell, platelets) showed monophasic rapid-increase approximately 1 year prior. Recent diagnosis of pancreatic cyst, pancreatitis, type 2 diabetes and initiation of certain glucose-lowering and acid-regulating therapies were associated with highest risk of PDAC.

CONCLUSION

Risk of PDAC increased with raised HbA1c, liver markers, white blood cell and platelets, while followed a U-shaped relationship for BMI and haemoglobin. BMI and HbA1c derange biphasically approximately 3 years prior while liver markers and blood counts (white blood cell, platelets) derange monophasically approximately 1 year prior to PDAC. Profiling these in combination with their temporality could inform earlier PDAC diagnosis.

Neuronal loss of TRPM8 leads to obesity and glucose intolerance in male mice

OBJECTIVE

Mice with global deletion of the transient receptor potential channel melastatin family member 8 (TRPM8) are obese, and treatment of diet-induced obese (DIO) mice with TRPM8 agonists decrease body weight. Whether TRPM8 signaling regulates energy metabolism via central or peripheral effects is unknow. Here we assessed the metabolic phenotype of mice with either Nestin Cre-mediated neuronal loss of TRPM8, or with deletion of TRPM8 in Advillin Cre positive sensory neurons of the peripheral nervous system (PNS).

METHODS

Nestin Cre- and Advillin Cre-Trpm8 knock-out (KO) mice were metabolically phenotyped under chronic exposure to either chow or high-fat diet (HFD), followed by assessment of energy and glucose metabolism.

RESULTS

At room temperature, chow-fed neuronal Trpm8 KO are obese and show decreased energy expenditure when acutely treated with the TRPM8 selective agonist icilin. But body weight of neuronal Trpm8 KO mice is indistinguishable from wildtype controls at thermoneutrality, or when mice are chronically exposed to HFD-feeding. In contrast to previous studies, we show that the TRPM8 agonist icilin has no direct effect on brown adipocytes, but that icilin stimulates energy expenditure, at least in part, via neuronal TRPM8 signaling. We further show that lack of TRPM8 in sensory neurons of the PNS does not lead to a metabolically relevant phenotype.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that obesity in TRPM8-deficient mice is centrally mediated and likely originates from alterations in energy expenditure and/or thermal conductance, but does not depend on TRPM8 signaling in brown adipocytes or sensory neurons of the PVN.

Ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes: a multinational cohort study of 20 million individuals from England and Canada

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneous studies have demonstrated ethnic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This study evaluates the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in two large population-based cohorts from England and Canada and investigates potential explanatory factors for ethnic patterning of severe outcomes.

METHODS

We identified adults aged 18 to 99 years in the QResearch primary care (England) and Ontario (Canada) healthcare administrative population-based datasets (start of follow-up: 24th and 25th Jan 2020 in England and Canada, respectively; end of follow-up: 31st Oct and 30th Sept 2020, respectively). We harmonised the definitions and the design of two cohorts to investigate associations between ethnicity and COVID-19-related death, hospitalisation, and intensive care (ICU) admission, adjusted for confounders, and combined the estimates obtained from survival analyses. We calculated the 'percentage of excess risk mediated' by these risk factors in the QResearch cohort.

RESULTS

There were 9.83 million adults in the QResearch cohort (11,597 deaths; 21,917 hospitalisations; 2932 ICU admissions) and 10.27 million adults in the Ontario cohort (951 deaths; 5132 hospitalisations; 1191 ICU admissions). Compared to the general population, pooled random-effects estimates showed that South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09-2.44), hospitalisation (1.53; 1.32-1.76), and ICU admission (1.67; 1.23-2.28). Associations with ethnic groups were consistent across levels of deprivation. In QResearch, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors accounted for 42.9% (South Asian) and 39.4% (Black) of the excess risk of COVID-19 death.

CONCLUSION

International population-level analyses demonstrate clear ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 risks. Policymakers should be cognisant of the increased risks in some ethnic populations and design equitable health policy as the pandemic continues.

Increases in stress hormone levels in a UK population during the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that psychological factors may influence vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 infection, although the mechanisms are unclear.

PURPOSE

We examined whether the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis may be a possible mechanism, by measuring the relationship between indices of psychological distress and cortisone in hair (hairE) in a UK cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Participants (N = 827) provided two 3 cm hair samples over a 6-month period between April-September 2020. Samples reflected hairE in the 3 months prior to the collection date.

RESULTS

HairE in the first samples (T1: commenced April 2020) did not differ significantly from pre-pandemic population norms. However, hairE in the second samples (T2: commenced July 2020) were significantly higher than T1 and pre-pandemic population norms, with a 23% increase between T1 and T2. Linear regressions, controlling for age and gender, demonstrated that at both timepoints, hairE levels were greatest in people with a history of mental health difficulties. In addition, stress reported at T1 predicted greater hairE at T2 and a greater change in hairE between T1 and T2.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that during the COVID-19 pandemic hairE was substantially elevated across a large community cohort, with greatest levels in those with a history of mental health difficulties and greatest changes in those reporting greatest levels of stress early in the pandemic. Further research is required with verified SARS-CoV-2 outcomes to determine whether the HPA axis is among the mechanisms by which a history of mental health difficulties and stress influence SARS-CoV-2 outcomes.

Effectiveness of systematically delivered evidence-based home safety promotion to improve child home safety practices: a controlled before-and-after study

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the effectiveness of systematically delivered evidence-based home safety promotion for improving child home safety practices.

DESIGN

Controlled before-and-after study.

SETTING

Nine electoral wards in Nottingham, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

361 families with children aged 2-7 months at recruitment living in four intervention wards with high health, education and social need; and 401 in five matched control wards.

INTERVENTION

Evidence-based home safety promotion delivered by health visiting teams, family mentors and children's centres including 24 monthly safety messages; home safety activity sessions; quarterly 'safety weeks'; home safety checklists.

OUTCOMES

Primary: composite measure comprising having a working smoke alarm, storing poisons out of reach and having a stairgate. Secondary: other home safety practices; medically attended injuries. Parents completed questionnaires at 12 and 24 months after recruitment plus optional three monthly injury questionnaires.

RESULTS

At 24 months there was no significant difference between groups in the primary outcome (55.8% vs 48.8%; OR 1.58, 95% CI 0.98 to 2.55) or medically attended injury rates (incidence rate ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.56), but intervention families were more likely to store poisons safely (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.07), have a fire escape plan (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.08), use a fireguard or have no fire (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.63 to 6.16) and perform more safety practices (β 0.46, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic evidence-based home safety promotion in areas with substantial need increases adoption of some safety practices. Funders should consider commissioning evidence-based multicomponent child home safety interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN31210493.

Risk models for recurrence and survival after kidney cancer: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify and compare the performance of prognostic models providing estimates of survival or recurrence of localized renal cell cancer (RCC) in patients treated with surgery with curative intent.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019162349). We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from 1 January 2000 to 12 December 2019 to identify studies reporting the performance of one or more prognostic model(s) that predict recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) or overall survival (OS) in patients who have undergone surgical resection for localized RCC. For each outcome we summarized the discrimination of each model using the C-statistic and performed multivariate random-effects meta-analysis of the logit transformed C-statistic to rank the models.

RESULTS

Of a total of 13 549 articles, 57 included data on the performance of 22 models in external populations. C-statistics ranged from 0.59 to 0.90. Several risk models were assessed in two or more external populations and had similarly high discriminative performance. For RFS, these were the Sorbellini, Karakiewicz, Leibovich and Kattan models, with the UCLA Integrated Staging System model also having similar performance in European/US populations. All had C-statistics ≥0.75 in at least half of the validations. For CSS, they the models with the highest discriminative performance in two or more external validation studies were the Zisman, Stage, Size, Grade and Necrosis (SSIGN), Karakiewicz, Leibovich and Sorbellini models (C-statistic ≥0.80 in at least half of the validations), and for OS they were the Leibovich, Karakiewicz, Sorbellini and SSIGN models. For all outcomes, the models based on clinical features at presentation alone (Cindolo and Yaycioglu) had consistently lower discrimination. Estimates of model calibration were only infrequently included but most underestimated survival.

CONCLUSION

Several models had good discriminative ability, with there being no single 'best' model. The choice from these models for each setting should be informed by both the comparative performance and availability of factors included in the models. All would need recalibration if used to provide absolute survival estimates.

Design decisions and data completeness for experience sampling methods used in psychosis: systematic review

BACKGROUND

The experience sampling method (ESM) is an intensive longitudinal research method.  Participants complete questionnaires at multiple times about their current or very recent state. The design of ESM studies is complex. People with psychosis have been shown to be less adherent to ESM study protocols than the general population. It is not known how to design studies that increase adherence to study protocols. A lack of typology makes it is hard for researchers to decide how to collect data in a way that allows for methodological rigour, quality of reporting, and the ability to synthesise findings. The aims of this systematic review were to characterise the design choices made in ESM studies monitoring the daily lives of people with psychosis, and to synthesise evidence relating the data completeness to different design choices.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of published literature on studies using ESM with people with psychosis. Studies were included if they used digital technology for data collection and reported the completeness of the data set. The constant comparative method was used to identify design decisions, using inductive identification of design decisions with simultaneous comparison of design decisions observed. Weighted regression was used to identify design decisions that predicted data completeness. The review was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42019125545).

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies were included. A typology of design choices used in ESM studies was developed, which comprised three superordinate categories of design choice: Study context, ESM approach and ESM implementation. Design decisions that predict data completeness include type of ESM protocol used, length of time participants are enrolled in the study, and if there is contact with the research team during data collection.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified a range of design decisions used in studies using ESM in the context of psychosis. Design decisions that influence data completeness were identified. Findings will help the design and reporting of future ESM studies. Results are presented with the focus on psychosis, but the findings can be applied across different mental health populations.

Development and validation of personalised risk prediction models for early detection and diagnosis of primary liver cancer among the English primary care population using the QResearch® database: research protocol and statistical analysis plan

BACKGROUND AND RESEARCH AIM

The incidence and mortality of liver cancer have been increasing in the UK in recent years. However, liver cancer is still under-studied. The Early Detection of Hepatocellular Liver Cancer (DeLIVER-QResearch) project aims to address the research gap and generate new knowledge to improve early detection and diagnosis of primary liver cancer from general practice and at the population level. There are three research objectives: (1) to understand the current epidemiology of primary liver cancer in England, (2) to identify and quantify the symptoms and comorbidities associated with liver cancer, and (3) to develop and validate prediction models for early detection of liver cancer suitable for implementation in clinical settings.

METHODS

This population-based study uses the QResearch® database (version 46) and includes adult patients aged 25-84 years old and without a diagnosis of liver cancer at the cohort entry (study period: 1 January 2008-30 June 2021). The team conducted a literature review (with additional clinical input) to inform the inclusion of variables for data extraction from the QResearch database. A wide range of statistical techniques will be used for the three research objectives, including descriptive statistics, multiple imputation for missing data, conditional logistic regression to investigate the association between the clinical features (symptoms and comorbidities) and the outcome, fractional polynomial terms to explore the non-linear relationship between continuous variables and the outcome, and Cox/competing risk regression for the prediction model. We have a specific focus on the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year absolute risks of developing liver cancer, as risks at different time points have different clinical implications. The internal-external cross-validation approach will be used, and the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model will be evaluated.

DISCUSSION

The DeLIVER-QResearch project uses large-scale representative population-based data to address the most relevant research questions for early detection and diagnosis of primary liver cancer in England. This project has great potential to inform the national cancer strategic plan and yield substantial public and societal benefits.

Feasibility of conducting a randomized, placebo-controlled study assessing whether omega-3 fatty acids prevent gout flares when starting urate-lowering treatment

Objective

The aim was to test the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial exploring whether omega-3 fatty acid supplementation limits gout flares during treat-to-target urate-lowering treatment (T2T-ULT).

Methods

Adults with at least one gout flare in the past 12 months and serum urate (SU) ≥360 μmol/l were recruited from general practices (primary method) and randomly assigned 1:1 to receive omega-3 fatty acid supplementation (4 g/day) or placebo for 28 weeks. At week 5, participants began T2T-ULT. The primary outcome was drop-out rate. Secondary outcomes were recruitment rate, outcome data completeness, the number, severity and duration of gout flares between weeks 5 and 28, and study drug compliance.

Results

Ninety-five per cent of randomized participants (n = 60) completed all study visits. The primary method recruitment rate was 2.2%. Fifty and 42 participants achieved SU &lt; 360 and 300 μmol/l (6 and 5 mg/dl), respectively. The number of gout flares [median (interquartile range): active 1 (0–2) and placebo 1 (0–2)], flare duration [mean (s.d.): active 7.00 (4.52) days and placebo 7.06 (8.14) days] and time to first flare [hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.97 (0.50, 1.86)] were comparable between both arms. Study drug compliance was high and comparable in both arms [median (interquartile range) returned capsule count: active 57 (26–100) and placebo 58 (27–154)]; red blood cell omega-3 fatty acid index increased twofold in the active arm and remained unchanged in the control arm.

Conclusion

The study demonstrated feasibility and provided useful metrics for conducting a community-based gout flare prophylaxis trial.

Study registration

ISRCTN; https://www.isrctn.com/; ISRCTN79392964.

Impact of vaccination on COVID-19-associated admissions to critical care in England: a study of population linked data with quantitative bias analysis for linkage error

ObjectivesTo explore associations between COVID-19 vaccination and admission to critical care with COVID-19 in England, by age group, dose, and over time. ApproachWe conducted a population cohort study by linking the Case Mix Programme national clinical audit of adult intensive care to the National Immunisation Management System, combined with population denominators from the Office for National Statistics. We compared patient characteristics and estimated rates of critical care admission by vaccination status and age group and explored variation in admission rates and relative protection over time. Finally, we used quantitative bias analysis to explore sensitivity to potential linkage error. ResultsBetween 1 May and 15 December 2021 (England’s Delta wave), 11,431 patients were admitted to adult critical care units in England with COVID-19, of whom 10,141 were included in the cohort. Vaccinated patients were older, with higher levels of severe comorbidity and immunocompromise. Unvaccinated patients were greatly overrepresented, with people who had received two or more doses being at least 92% less likely to be admitted compared with those who were unvaccinated, for all ages, once the second dose had been rolled out. Those aged 50 years or older who had received a booster/third dose were 98-99% less likely to be admitted compared with unvaccinated. Our analysis was robust to linkage error, but closely related analyses could have been exquisitely sensitive to missed links. ConclusionOur findings are consistent with a high degree of vaccine-acquired protection against critical care admission, with little waning in the first 6-9 months for those aged under 70. While our analysis was robust to linkage error, significant care is warranted with related analyses of linked vaccination and outcome databases.

Association between smoking, e-cigarette use and severe COVID-19: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Smoking is a risk factor for most respiratory infections, but it may protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The objective was to assess whether smoking and e-cigarette use were associated with severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This cohort ran from 24 January 2020 until 30 April 2020 at the height of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. It comprised 7 869 534 people representative of the population of England with smoking status, demographic factors and diseases recorded by general practitioners in the medical records, which were linked to hospital and death data. The outcomes were COVID-19-associated hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. The associations between smoking and the outcomes were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, with sequential adjustment for confounding variables and indirect causal factors (body mass index and smoking-related disease).

RESULTS

Compared with never smokers, people currently smoking were at lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 0.64 (95% confidence intervals 0.60 to 0.69) for <10 cigarettes/day, 0.49 (0.41 to 0.59) for 10-19 cigarettes/day, and 0.61 (0.49 to 0.74) for ≥20 cigarettes/day. For ICU admission, the corresponding HRs were 0.31 (0.24 to 0.40), 0.15 (0.06 to 0.36), and 0.35 (0.17 to 0.74) and death were: 0.79 (0.70 to 0.89), 0.66 (0.48 to 0.90), and 0.77 (0.54 to 1.09) respectively. Former smokers were at higher risk of severe COVID-19: HRs: 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) for hospitalization, 1.17 (1.04 to 1.31) for ICU admission, and 1.17 (1.10 to 1.24) for death. All-cause mortality was higher for current smoking than never smoking, HR 1.42 (1.36 to 1.48). Among e-cigarette users, the adjusted HR for e-cigarette use and hospitalization with COVID-19 was 1.06 (0.88 to 1.28), for ICU admission was 1.04 (0.57 to 1.89, and for death was 1.12 (0.81 to 1.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Current smoking was associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 but the association with e-cigarette use was unclear. All-cause mortality remained higher despite this possible reduction in death from COVID-19 during an epidemic of SARS-CoV-2. Findings support investigating possible protective mechanisms of smoking for SARS-CoV-2 infection, including the ongoing trials of nicotine to treat COVID-19.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Associations of BMI with COVID-19 vaccine uptake, vaccine effectiveness, and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after vaccination in England: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

A high BMI has been associated with a reduced immune response to vaccination against influenza. We aimed to investigate the association between BMI and COVID-19 vaccine uptake, vaccine effectiveness, and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after vaccination by using a large, representative population-based cohort from England.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used the QResearch database of general practice records and included patients aged 18 years or older who were registered at a practice that was part of the database in England between Dec 8, 2020 (date of the first vaccination in the UK), to Nov 17, 2021, with available data on BMI. Uptake was calculated as the proportion of people with zero, one, two, or three doses of the vaccine across BMI categories. Effectiveness was assessed through a nested matched case-control design to estimate odds ratios (OR) for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, admission to hospital or death) in people who had been vaccinated versus those who had not, considering vaccine dose and time periods since vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness against infection with SARS-CoV-2 was also investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models estimated the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with BMI (reference BMI 23 kg/m2) after vaccination.

FINDINGS

Among 9 171 524 participants (mean age 52 [SD 19] years; BMI 26·7 [5·6] kg/m2), 566 461 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during follow-up, of whom 32 808 were admitted to hospital and 14 389 died. Of the total study sample, 19·2% (1 758 689) were unvaccinated, 3·1% (287 246) had one vaccine dose, 52·6% (4 828 327) had two doses, and 25·0% (2 297 262) had three doses. In people aged 40 years and older, uptake of two or three vaccine doses was more than 80% among people with overweight or obesity, which was slightly lower in people with underweight (70-83%). Although significant heterogeneity was found across BMI groups, protection against severe COVID-19 disease (comparing people who were vaccinated vs those who were not) was high after 14 days or more from the second dose for hospital admission (underweight: OR 0·51 [95% CI 0·41-0·63]; healthy weight: 0·34 [0·32-0·36]; overweight: 0·32 [0·30-0·34]; and obesity: 0·32 [0·30-0·34]) and death (underweight: 0·60 [0·36-0·98]; healthy weight: 0·39 [0·33-0·47]; overweight: 0·30 [0·25-0·35]; and obesity: 0·26 [0·22-0·30]). In the vaccinated cohort, there were significant linear associations between BMI and COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the first dose, and J-shaped associations after the second dose.

INTERPRETATION

Using BMI categories, there is evidence of protection against severe COVID-19 in people with overweight or obesity who have been vaccinated, which was of a similar magnitude to that of people of healthy weight. Vaccine effectiveness was slightly lower in people with underweight, in whom vaccine uptake was also the lowest for all ages. In the vaccinated cohort, there were increased risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes for people with underweight or obesity compared with the vaccinated population with a healthy weight. These results suggest the need for targeted efforts to increase uptake in people with low BMI (<18·5 kg/m2), in whom uptake is lower and vaccine effectiveness seems to be reduced. Strategies to achieve and maintain a healthy weight should be prioritised at the population level, which could help reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Identifying key signs of motor neurone disease in primary care: a nested case-control study using the QResearch database

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the symptoms and signs for motor neuron disease (MND) in the Red Flag tool; to quantify the extent to which the key symptoms and signs are associated with MND; and to identify additional factors which may be helpful within the primary care setting in recognition of possible MND and triggering timely referral to neurology specialists.

DESIGN

A nested case-control study.

SETTING

1292 UK general practices contributing to the QResearch primary care database, linked to hospital and mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

Baseline cohort included 16.8 million individuals aged 18 years and over without a diagnosis of MND at study entry and with more than 3 years of digitalised information available. The nested case-control data set comprised of 6437 cases of MND diagnosed between January 1998 and December 2019, matched by year of birth, gender, general practice and calendar year to 62 003 controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinically recognised symptoms and signs of MND prior to diagnosis and symptoms and factors which are relevant in primary care setting.

RESULTS

This study identified 17 signs and symptoms that were independently associated with MND diagnosis in a multivariable analysis. Of these, seven were new to the Red Flag tool: ataxia, dysphasia, weight loss, wheeze, hoarseness of voice, urinary incontinence and constipation. Among those from the Red Flag tool, dysarthria had the strongest association with subsequent MND (adjusted OR (aOR): 43.2 (95% CI 36.0 to 52.0)) followed by muscle fasciculations (aOR: 40.2 (95% CI 25.6 to 63.1)) and muscle wasting (aOR: 31.0 (95% CI 19.5 to 49.4)). Additionally, the associations between MND diagnosis and family history, dropped foot, focal weakness and sialorrhoea remained robust after controlling for confounders. Patients who reported symptoms indicative of damage to the lower brainstem and its connections were diagnosed sooner than those who presented with respiratory or cognitive signs.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study that has identified, confirmed and quantified the association of key symptoms and signs with MND diagnosis. In addition to known factors, the study has identified the following new factors to be independently associated with MND prior to diagnosis: ataxia, dysphasia, wheeze and hoarseness of voice. These findings may be used to improve risk stratification and earlier detection of MND in primary care.

Relationship Between Anxiety, Depression, and Susceptibility to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: Proof of Concept

BACKGROUND

Psychological factors can influence susceptibility to viral infections. We examined whether such influences are evident in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

METHODS

Participants (n = 102) completed measures of anxiety, depression, positive mood, and loneliness and provided a blood sample for the measurement of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid proteins.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 was significantly negatively associated with anxiety and depression. The model remained significant after adjustment for age and gender, although anxiety and depression were no longer significant independent predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings offer early support for the hypothesis that psychological factors may influence susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Comorbidities and use of analgesics in people with knee pain: a study in the Nottingham Knee Pain and Health in the Community (KPIC) cohort

Objectives

The aims were to examine the prevalence of comorbidities and role of oral analgesic use in people with knee pain (KP) compared with those without.

Methods

The Knee Pain and related health In the Community (KPIC) cohort comprises community-derived adults aged ≥40 years, irrespective of knee pain. Thirty-six comorbidities across 10 systems were compared between people with KP and controls without KP or knee OA. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% CI for multimorbidity (at least two chronic conditions) and each specific comorbidity. Both prescribed and over-the-counter analgesics were included in the model, and their interactions with KP for comorbidity outcomes were examined.

Results

Two thousand eight hundred and thirty-two cases with KP and 2518 controls were selected from 9506 baseline participants. The mean age of KP cases was 62.2 years, and 57% were women. Overall, 29% of the total study population had multimorbidity (KP cases 34.4%; controls 23.8%). After adjustment for age, sex, BMI and analgesic use, KP was significantly associated with multimorbidity (aOR 1.35; 95% CI 1.17, 1.56) and with cardiovascular (aOR 1.25; 95% CI 1.08, 1.44), gastrointestinal (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.04, 1.92), chronic widespread pain (aOR 1.54; 95% CI 1.29, 1.86) and neurological (aOR 1.32; 95% CI 1.01, 1.76) comorbidities. For multimorbidity, the use of paracetamol and opioids interacted positively with KP, whereas the use of NSAIDs interacted negatively for seven comorbidities.

Conclusion

People with KP are more likely to have other chronic conditions. The long-term benefits and harms of this change remain to be investigated.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, http://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02098070.

Common protocol for validation of the QCOVID algorithm across the four UK nations

INTRODUCTION

The QCOVID algorithm is a risk prediction tool for infection and subsequent hospitalisation/death due to SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it is being used in important policy-making decisions by the UK and devolved governments for combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including deliberations on shielding and vaccine prioritisation. There are four statistical validations exercises currently planned for the QCOVID algorithm, using data pertaining to England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, respectively. This paper presents a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use open, retrospective cohort studies to assess the performance of the QCOVID risk prediction tool in each of the four UK nations. Linked datasets comprising of primary and secondary care records, virological testing data and death registrations will be assembled in trusted research environments in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We will seek to have population level coverage as far as possible within each nation. The following performance metrics will be calculated by strata: Harrell's C, Brier Score, R2 and Royston's D.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approvals have been obtained from relevant ethics bodies in each UK nation. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journal.

OP0228 USE OF NON-STEROIDAL ANTI-INFLAMMATORY DRUGS AND RISK OF COMORBIDITIES IN PEOPLE WITH AND WITHOUT OSTEOARTHRITIS - A UK PRIMARY CARE DATABASE COHORT STUDY

Background

People with osteoarthritis (OA) are at higher risk of developing a wide array of comorbidities. Whether the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) contributes to the increased risk of some incident comorbidities remains unknown.

Objectives

To examine the contribution of NSAIDs in the development of a wide range of comorbidities in people with and without OA.

Methods

This observational cohort study used the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD containing data on 20+ million people covering 937 practices. We identified 259,000 people with incident OA and 259,000 age (±2 years), sex, and practice matched controls at 1:1 ratio. Controls were assigned the same index date (the date of first diagnosis of OA) as cases for the start of follow-up. Both cases and controls were further divided into two groups according to NSAID prescriptions at any time after the index date. This allowed us to examine both the main effect of each exposure and interaction between OA and NSAID exposure after the index date. People with an NSAID prescription before the index date were excluded from the study. NSAID exposure was defined as at least two prescriptions within 90 days. Exposure status of each participant was assessed every six months as yes/no until the end of the study/outcome of interests/death/last data available, whichever came first. Comorbidities were grouped into 9 categories as cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), endocrine, psychological, renal, gastrointestinal (GI), genitourinary, hepatic, and neurological conditions. Propensity scores for the prescription of NSAIDs were calculated using a logistic regression model including age, sex, body mass index (BMI), musculoskeletal and pain related conditions covariates. The propensity score adjusted time varying exposure analysis was undertaken using a multivariate COX model and hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Proportional hazard assumption was tested using Schoenfeld test. Smoking, alcohol, ever prescription of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and other comorbidities were included in the adjusted model. The additional contribution of NSAIDs and OA towards the incident comorbidity was estimated using addictive interaction methods. We also investigated the individual risk across non-selective, and COX-2 selective NSAIDs.

Results

The mean age was 59.4±12.8 years in people with OA and 60.2±12.8 years for controls with 57.7% being female. Nearly two thirds of people with OA were prescribed NSAIDs as defined, compared to one third in the control population. People with OA and exposed to NSAIDs had highest risk of developing psychological (1.51; 1.43,1.60), CVD (1.38; 1.33,1.43), cancer (1.34; 1.25,1.44), GI (1.25; 1.16,1.34) and renal (1.17; 1.11,1.24) comorbidities after adjusting for all the covariates and PPI drugs, compared to the non-OA and non-NSAID group. (Figure 1) Interaction between OA and NSAID was significant for cancer, GI, renal, hepatic, and neurological outcomes. Within people with OA, non-selective NSAIDs increased the risk of CVD (1.25; 1.20,1.30), cancer (1.11; 1.04,1.19), endocrine (1.15; 1.10,1.19), renal (1.19; 1.13,1.26) and psychological (1.21; 1.15,1.28) comorbidities, whereas COX-2 selective NSAIDs increased risk of incident CVD (1.34; 1.25,1.44), endocrine (1.13; 1.04,1.21), renal (1.25; 1.14,1.37), and psychological (1.21; 1.09,1.34) comorbidities.

Figure 1.

Hazard ratio of developing different comorbidities (reference group: no OA and no NSAIDs) OA- Osteoarthritis; NSAIDS- Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

Conclusion

Use of NSAIDs among people with OA is associated with increased risk of a wide variety of comorbidities. Non-selective and COX-2 selective NSAIDs are both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular, renal, and psychological comorbidities.

Acknowledgements

We thank the Patient Research Participants (PRP) members Jenny Cockshull, Stevie Vanhegan, and Irene Pitsillidou for their involvement since the beginning of the project. We would like to thank the FOREUM for financially supporting the research.

Disclosure of Interests

Subhashisa Swain: None declared, Anne Kamps: None declared, Jos Runhaar: None declared, Andrea Dell’Isola: None declared, Aleksandra Turkiewicz: None declared, Danielle E Robinson: None declared, Victoria Y Strauss: None declared, Christian Mallen: None declared, Chang-Fu Kuo: None declared, Carol Coupland: None declared, Michael Doherty Consultant of: Consultant of: Advisory borads on gout for Grunenthal and Mallinckrodt, Grant/research support from: Michael Doherty Grant/research support from: AstraZeneca funded the Nottingham Sons of Gout study, Aliya Sarmanova: None declared, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra Speakers bureau: paid speaker services from Amgen and UCB Biopharma., Consultant of: His department has received advisory or consultancy fees from Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Johnson, and Johnson, and UCB Biopharma, Grant/research support from: Prof. Prieto-Alhambra’s research group has received grant support from Amgen, Chesi-Taylor, Novartis, and UCB Biopharma., Martin Englund: None declared, S.M.A. Bierma-Zeinstra: None declared, Weiya Zhang Speakers bureau: Speakers bureau: Bioiberica as an invited speaker for EULAR 2016 satellite symposium, Consultant of: Consultant of: Grunenthal for advice on gout management,

POS1124 EVALUATION OF COMORBIDITY PATTERNS AND IDENTIFICATION OF SUB-GROUPS IN PATIENTS DIAGNOSED WITH HIP OSTEOARTHRITIS IN 94,720 PATIENTS FROM SPAIN

Background

Osteoarthritis (OA) patients are more likely to have other comorbidities (Swain, Sarmanova et al. 2020). Improving the understanding of comorbidity profiles of OA patients may lead to improvement in their clinical care.

Objectives

To identify sub-groups in patients diagnosed with hip OA using patterns of comorbidity.

Methods

Routinely-collected data of individuals ≥18 years with an incident diagnosis of hip OA (baseline/time of diagnosis), with at least 1 year of follow-up in SIDIAP (Information System for Research in Primary Care, a primary case database from Spain) were collected from January 1st 2006 to June 31st 2020. Those with soft-tissue disorders or other bone/cartilage diseases at the same joint in the year prior/after baseline were excluded. Comorbidities associated with OA in the literature and present in ≥1% of the study population were included. Clusters of comorbidities were identified at baseline using latent class analysis (LCA), a soft clustering method that classifies individuals according to the distribution of their measured items. The number of clusters or sub-groups within the study population was decided by comparing goodness of fit parameters (CAIC, BIC, ABIC) and log-likelihood changes of models from 2 to 8 clusters. The selected model was externally evaluated by a survival analysis assessing 10 years mortality within each cluster, where the weight of the posterior probability was used as a probability of sampling weight.

Results

We identified 94,720 individuals with an incident diagnosis of hip OA, 56.3% women and 43.7% men, with a mean age (SD) of 67.2 (13.1) years. We selected the LCA model with 5 clusters that could be described as: healthier (lower prevalence of all comorbidities than average in the cohort), multimorbidity (higher prevalence of all comorbidities, multiple comorbidities), back/neck pain plus mental health (B/N-mental), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and metabolic syndrome (MetS) (Figure 1). Cox regression (HR [95CI%]) showed higher mortality risk for multimorbidity (3.76 [3.70-3.83]), CVD (1.56 [1.53-1.59]) and MetS (4.56 [4.35-4.78]), compared to healthy. No difference was observed for B/N-mental cluster.

Figure 1.

Distribution of comorbidities within each cluster using latent class analysis. Clusters were described as Healthier, Multimorbidity, B/N-mental, CVD and MetS. Black horizontal lines represent the prevalence of the comorbidity before the clusterization. Abbreviations: Healthier, lower prevalence of all comorbidities; Multimorbidity, higher prevalence of all comorbidities; B/N-mental, back/neck pain plus mental health disorders; CVD, cardiovascular disease; Met, metabolic syndrome; Bhp, benign prostate hypertrophy; Chd, chronic heart disease; Chf, chronic heart failure; Ckd, chronic kidney disease; Copd, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Gbs, gall bladder stone; Gerd, gastroesophageal reflux disease; Ibd, inflammatory bowel disease; Ovd, other vessel diseases; Substance, substance abuse.

Conclusion

Clustering of co-morbidities in hip OA patients at the time of diagnosis has the potential to detect sub-groups of hip OA patients who might require additional care.

References

[1]Swain, S., A. Sarmanova, C. Coupland, M. Doherty and W. Zhang (2020). “Comorbidities in Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.” Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 72(7): 991-1000.

Acknowledgements

We thank the Patient Research Participants (PRP) members Jenny Cockshull, Stevie Vanhegan, and Irene Pitsillidou for their involvement since the beginning of the project. We would like to thank the FOREUM for financially supporting the research.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Psychological Predictors of Self-reported COVID-19 Outcomes: Results From a Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Previous research has shown that psychological factors, such as stress and social support, are associated with greater susceptibility to viral respiratory illnesses and more severe symptoms. During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a well-documented deterioration in psychological well-being and increased social isolation. This raises questions as to whether those experiencing psychological adversity during the pandemic are more at risk of contracting and/or experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.

PURPOSE

To examine the relationship between psychological factors and the risk of COVID-19 self-reported infection and the symptomatic experience of SARS-CoV-2 (indicated by the number and severity of symptoms).

METHODS

As part of a longitudinal prospective observational cohort study, 1,087 adults completed validated measures of psychological well-being during April 2020 and self-reported incidence of COVID-19 infection and symptom experience across the pandemic through to December 2020. Regression models were used to explore these relationships controlling for demographic and occupational factors.

RESULTS

Greater psychological distress during the early phase of the pandemic was significantly associated with subsequent self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as the experience of a greater number and more severe symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 infection and symptoms may be more common among those experiencing elevated psychological distress. Further research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these associations is needed.

Comorbidities in osteoarthritis (ComOA): a combined cross-sectional, case-control and cohort study using large electronic health records in four European countries

INTRODUCTION

Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the leading chronic conditions in the older population. People with OA are more likely to have one or more other chronic conditions than those without. However, the temporal associations, clusters of the comorbidities, role of analgesics and the causality and variation between populations are yet to be investigated. This paper describes the protocol of a multinational study in four European countries (UK, Netherlands, Sweden and Spain) exploring comorbidities in people with OA.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multinational study will investigate (1) the temporal associations of 61 identified comorbidities with OA, (2) the clusters and trajectories of comorbidities in people with OA, (3) the role of analgesics on incidence of comorbidities in people with OA, (4) the potential biomarkers and causality between OA and the comorbidities, and (5) variations between countries.A combined case-control and cohort study will be conducted to find the temporal association of OA with the comorbidities using the national or regional health databases. Latent class analysis will be performed to identify the clusters at baseline and joint latent class analysis will be used to examine trajectories during the follow-up. A cohort study will be undertaken to evaluate the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids and paracetamol on the incidence of comorbidities. Mendelian randomisation will be performed to investigate the potential biomarkers for causality between OA and the comorbidities using the UK Biobank and the Rotterdam Study databases. Finally, a meta-analyses will be used to examine the variations and pool the results from different countries.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics was obtained according to each database requirement. Results will be disseminated through the FOREUM website, scientific meetings, publications and in partnership with patient organisations.

The prevalence, incidence, prognosis and risk factors for symptoms of depression and anxiety in a UK cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound consequences for population mental health. However, it is less clear for whom these effects are sustained.

AIMS

To investigate the prevalence, incidence, prognosis and risk factors for symptoms of depression and anxiety in a UK cohort over three distinct periods in the pandemic in 2020.

METHOD

An online survey was completed by a UK community cohort at three points (n = 3097 at baseline, n = 878 completed all surveys): April (baseline), July to September (time point 2) and November to December (time point 3). Participants completed validated measures of depression and anxiety on each occasion, and we prospectively explored the role of sociodemographic and psychological factors (loneliness, positive mood and perceived risk of and worry about COVID-19) as risk factors.

RESULTS

Depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 means: baseline, 7.69; time point 2, 5.53; time point 3, 6.06) and anxiety scores (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 means: baseline, 6.59; time point 2, 4.60; time point 3, 4.98) were considerably greater than pre-pandemic population norms at all time points. Women reported greater depression and anxiety symptoms than men. Younger age, history of mental health disorder, more COVID-19-related negative life events, greater loneliness and lower positive mood at baseline were all significant predictors of poorer mental health at time point 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health has persisted to some degree. Younger people and individuals with prior mental health disorders are at greatest risk. Easing of restrictions and resumption of social interaction could mitigate the risk factors of loneliness and positive mood.

Association between mirtazapine use and serious self-harm in people with depression: an active comparator cohort study using UK electronic health records

Background

Studies report an increased risk of self-harm or suicide in people prescribed mirtazapine compared with other antidepressants.

Objectives

To compare the risk of serious self-harm in people prescribed mirtazapine versus other antidepressants as second-line treatments.

Design and setting

Cohort study using anonymised English primary care electronic health records, hospital admission data and mortality data with study window 1 January 2005 to 30 November 2018.

Participants

24 516 people diagnosed with depression, aged 18–99 years, initially prescribed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) and then prescribed mirtazapine, a different SSRI, amitriptyline or venlafaxine.

Main outcome measures

Hospitalisation or death due to deliberate self-harm. Age–sex standardised rates were calculated and survival analyses were performed using inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for baseline covariates.

Results

Standardised rates of serious self-harm ranged from 3.8/1000 person-years (amitriptyline) to 14.1/1000 person-years (mirtazapine). After weighting, the risk of serious self-harm did not differ significantly between the mirtazapine group and the SSRI or venlafaxine groups (HRs (95% CI) 1.18 (0.84 to 1.65) and 0.85 (0.51 to 1.41) respectively). The risk was significantly higher in the mirtazapine than the amitriptyline group (3.04 (1.36 to 6.79)) but was attenuated after adjusting for dose.

Conclusions

There was no evidence for a difference in risk between mirtazapine and SSRIs or venlafaxine after accounting for baseline characteristics. The higher risk in the mirtazapine versus the amitriptyline group might reflect residual confounding if amitriptyline is avoided in people considered at risk of self-harm.

Clinical implications

Addressing baseline risk factors and careful monitoring might improve outcomes for people at risk of serious self-harm.

Recruitment to a large scale randomised controlled clinical trial in primary care: the Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT)

Background

The Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT) is a multicentre, double blind, randomised controlled trial investigating whether Helicobacter (H.) pylori eradication reduces hospitalisation for peptic ulcer bleeding. Recruited participants were aged 60 and over and taking aspirin (≤325 mg daily) for at least four months prior to consent. Based on results of a pilot study, a sample size calculation predicted 6600 H. pylori-positive randomised participants would be required, from 33,000 volunteers, recruited from 170,000 invited patients. Methodology was therefore designed for recruitment of large numbers of patients from primary care using a novel electronic search tool, automated mail-out and electronic follow-up. Recruitment started in 2012 and completed in 2017.

Methods

All participants were recruited from GP practices, with assistance from the UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN). H. pylori-positive participants were randomised to one week of eradication treatment or placebo. Recruitment was managed using a bespoke web-based database that communicated directly with a programmed search tool downloaded at participating practices. The primary endpoint is hospitalisation due to peptic ulcer bleeding. The trial will end when 87 adjudicated events have occurred, identified from searches of GP databases, review of secondary care admission data and mortality data, and reported events from randomised participants and GPs.

Results

HEAT has recruited participants from 1208 GP practices across the UK. Of the 188,875 invitation letters sent, 38,771 returned expressions of interest. Of these, 30,166 patients were consented to the trial, of whom 5355 H. pylori-positive participants (17.8% of those consented) were randomised.

Mean age at consent was 73.1 ± 6.9 (SD) years and 72.2% of participants were male. Of the randomised (H. pylori-positive) participants, 531 have died (as of 17 Sep 2020); none of the deaths was due to trial treatment.

Conclusion

The HEAT trial methodology has demonstrated that recruitment of large numbers of patients from primary care is attainable, with the assistance of the UKCRN, and could be applied to other clinical outcomes studies.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov; registration number NCT01506986. Registered on 10 Jan 2012.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06054-w.

'It is designed for everybody to find their own level and to improve themselves'; views of older people and instructors of the Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme

BACKGROUND

Older adults are at increased risk of falls due to ageing, decreased muscle strength and impaired balance. Clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy and effectiveness of the Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme in improving functioning and preventing falls. However, programme completion is often low, impacting the potential benefits of FaME.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the barriers and facilitators for participation and completion of the FaME programme from an instructor and participant perspective.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 FaME users and seven Postural Stability Instructors from the East Midlands region of England, UK. Interviews were conducted using a topic guide and explored their views of the programme, intended benefits, reasons for participating, instructor's approach and venue facilities. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants and instructors.

RESULTS

Common themes identified by participants and instructors for adherence related to perceived health benefits, psychological well-being, intervention characteristics, cost, instructors' qualities, opportunity to socialise, venue accessibility and facilities. Further factors such as maintaining independence, discipline, relationship with peers and caring responsibilities influenced participants' engagement with the programme. Instructor factors such as progression were also reported as important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Instructor and participant factors influence uptake, attendance and adherence of FaME. The findings from this study can inform the development and improvement of additional falls-prevention programmes. It can also guide marketing strategies to promote uptake of exercise-based falls-prevention programmes among older adults.

The risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people prescribed mirtazapine: an active comparator cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported an increased risk of mortality among people prescribed mirtazapine compared to other antidepressants. The study aimed to compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between adults prescribed mirtazapine or other second-line antidepressants.

METHODS

This cohort study used English primary care electronic medical records, hospital admission records, and mortality data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), for the period 01 January 2005 to 30 November 2018. It included people aged 18-99 years with depression first prescribed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) and then prescribed mirtazapine (5081), a different SSRI (15,032), amitriptyline (3905), or venlafaxine (1580). Follow-up was from starting to stopping the second antidepressant, with a 6-month wash-out window, censoring at the end of CPRD follow-up or 30 November 2018. Age-sex standardised rates of all-cause mortality and death due to circulatory system disease, cancer, or respiratory system disease were calculated. Survival analyses were performed, accounting for baseline characteristics using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

The cohort contained 25,598 people (median age 41 years). The mirtazapine group had the highest standardised mortality rate, with an additional 7.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9-9.7) deaths/1000 person-years compared to the SSRI group. Within 2 years of follow-up, the risk of all-cause mortality was statistically significantly higher in the mirtazapine group than in the SSRI group (weighted hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% CI 1.28-2.06). No significant difference was found between the mirtazapine group and the amitriptyline (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.85-1.63) or venlafaxine (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.60-2.05) groups. After 2 years, the risk was significantly higher in the mirtazapine group compared to the SSRI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.04-2.19), amitriptyline (HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.38-4.86), and venlafaxine (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.02-5.44) groups. The risks of death due to cancer (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.06-2.85) and respiratory system disease (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07-2.77) were significantly higher in the mirtazapine than in the SSRI group.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality was higher in people prescribed mirtazapine than people prescribed a second SSRI, possibly reflecting residual differences in other risk factors between the groups. Identifying these potential health risks when prescribing mirtazapine may help reduce the risk of mortality.

Analysis of incidence of motor neuron disease in England 1998-2019: use of three linked datasets

Objective: This study uses three linked datasets to provide an estimate of incidence of motor neuron disease (MND) in England from 1998 to 2019. Comparison is made to previous British studies. It examines age at diagnosis and ethnicity of those affected.

Methods: The literature was searched for studies of MND incidence in Great Britain from 1995 to date. The QResearch and linked Hospital Episode Statistics and Death register databases were searched from 1998 to 2019 for cases of MND, and incidence calculated from 16.8 million adults and 112 million adult years of data.

Results: We found 6437 adults with a diagnosis of MND giving an incidence of MND of 5.69/100,000 person years (95% CI 5.51–5.88); 6.57 (6.41–6.99) in men and 4.72 (4.49–4.97) in women when age-standardized to the 2011 UK population. The median age of diagnosis was 72 years. Peak incidence occurred in the 80–84 year age group in men and 75–79 in women. Age-standardized incidence was as high in Bangladeshi, Black Caribbean, Indian, other Asian and Pakistani people as in White people. Black African and Chinese people had a lower incidence.

Conclusion: The use of three linked national datasets captured 33% more people than a primary care dataset alone. Patients were older than in previous studies and rates were high in all ethnic groups studied except Black African and Chinese people. We present the highest incidence of MND reported globally in the past 50 years. Methodological differences may in part explain differences with previous reports. The use of national datasets may have captured additional MND patients with serious comorbidities who have not seen a neurologist before death. A limitation of this approach is that unlike population registers, which minimize false positive diagnosis by neurologist review of each patient, we cannot review diagnosis for individuals as data are anonymized.

Impact of the national home safety equipment scheme 'Safe At Home' on hospital admissions for unintentional injury in children under 5: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Unintentional home injuries are a leading cause of preventable death in young children. Safety education and equipment provision improve home safety practices, but their impact on injuries is less clear. Between 2009 and 2011, a national home safety equipment scheme was implemented in England (Safe At Home), targeting high-injury-rate areas and socioeconomically disadvantaged families with children under 5. This provided a 'natural experiment' for evaluating the scheme's impact on hospital admissions for unintentional injuries.

METHODS

Controlled interrupted time series analysis of unintentional injury hospital admission rates in small areas (Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs)) in England where the scheme was implemented (intervention areas, n=9466) and matched with LSOAs in England and Wales where it was not implemented (control areas, n=9466), with subgroup analyses by density of equipment provision.

RESULTS

57 656 homes receiving safety equipment were included in the analysis. In the 2 years after the scheme ended, monthly admission rates declined in intervention areas (-0.33% (-0.47% to -0.18%)) but did not decline in control areas (0.04% (-0.11%-0.19%), p value for difference in trend=0.001). Greater reductions in admission rates were seen as equipment provision density increased. Effects were not maintained beyond 2 years after the scheme ended.

CONCLUSIONS

A national home safety equipment scheme was associated with a reduction in injury-related hospital admissions in children under 5 in the 2 years after the scheme ended. Providing a higher number of items of safety equipment appears to be more effective in reducing injury rates than providing fewer items.

Use of menopausal hormone therapy and risk of dementia: nested case-control studies using QResearch and CPRD databases

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risks of developing dementia associated with different types and durations of menopausal hormone therapy.

DESIGN

Two nested case-control studies.

SETTING

UK general practices contributing to QResearch or the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), using all links to hospital, mortality, and social deprivation data.

PARTICIPANTS

118 501 women aged 55 and older with a primary diagnosis of dementia between 1998 and 2020, matched by age, general practice, and index date to 497 416 female controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Dementia diagnoses from general practice, mortality, and hospital records; odds ratios for menopausal hormone treatments adjusted for demographics, smoking status, alcohol consumption, comorbidities, family history, and other prescribed drugs.

RESULTS

Overall, 16 291 (14%) women with a diagnosis of dementia and 68 726 (14%) controls had used menopausal hormone therapy more than three years before the index date. Overall, no increased risks of developing dementia associated with menopausal hormone therapy were observed. A decreased global risk of dementia was found among cases and controls younger than 80 years who had been taking oestrogen-only therapy for 10 years or more (adjusted odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.94). Increased risks of developing specifically Alzheimer's disease were found among women who had used oestrogen-progestogen therapy for between five and nine years (1.11, 1.04 to 1.20) and for 10 years or more (1.19, 1.06 to 1.33). This was equivalent to, respectively, five and seven extra cases per 10 000 woman years. Detailed risk associations for the specific progestogens studied are also provided.

CONCLUSION

This study gives estimates for risks of developing dementia and Alzheimer's disease in women exposed to different types of menopausal hormone therapy for different durations and has shown no increased risks of developing dementia overall. It has shown a slightly increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease among long term users of oestrogen-progestogen therapies.

Association Between Race and COVID-19 Outcomes Among 2.6 Million Children in England

IMPORTANCE

Although children mainly experience mild COVID-19 disease, hospitalization rates are increasing, with limited understanding of underlying factors. There is an established association between race and severe COVID-19 outcomes in adults in England; however, whether a similar association exists in children is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between race and childhood COVID-19 testing and hospital outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

In this cohort study, children (0-18 years of age) from participating family practices in England were identified in the QResearch database between January 24 and November 30, 2020. The QResearch database has individually linked patients with national SARS-CoV-2 testing, hospital admission, and mortality data.

EXPOSURES

The main characteristic of interest is self-reported race. Other exposures were age, sex, deprivation level, geographic region, household size, and comorbidities (asthma; diabetes; and cardiac, neurologic, and hematologic conditions).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was hospital admission with confirmed COVID-19. Secondary outcomes were SARS-CoV-2-positive test result and any hospital attendance with confirmed COVID-19 and intensive care admission.

RESULTS

Of 2 576 353 children (mean [SD] age, 9.23 [5.24] years; 48.8% female), 410 726 (15.9%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 26 322 (6.4%) tested positive. A total of 1853 children (0.07%) with confirmed COVID-19 attended hospital, 343 (0.01%) were admitted to the hospital, and 73 (0.002%) required intensive care. Testing varied across race. White children had the highest proportion of SARS-CoV-2 tests (223 701/1 311 041 [17.1%]), whereas Asian children (33 213/243 545 [13.6%]), Black children (7727/93 620 [8.3%]), and children of mixed or other races (18 971/147 529 [12.9%]) had lower proportions. Compared with White children, Asian children were more likely to have COVID-19 hospital admissions (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.62; 95% CI, 1.12-2.36), whereas Black children (adjusted OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.90-2.31) and children of mixed or other races (adjusted OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.93-2.10) had comparable hospital admissions. Asian children were more likely to be admitted to intensive care (adjusted OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.07-4.14), and Black children (adjusted OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.08-4.94) and children of mixed or other races (adjusted OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.25-3.65) had longer hospital admissions (≥36 hours).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this large population-based study exploring the association between race and childhood COVID-19 testing and hospital outcomes, several race-specific disparities were observed in severe COVID-19 outcomes. However, ascertainment bias and residual confounding in this cohort study should be considered before drawing any further conclusions. Overall, findings of this study have important public health implications internationally.

Mental health and other factors associated with work productivity after injury in the UK: multicentre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Mental health conditions are a major contributor to productivity loss and are common after injury. This study quantifies postinjury productivity loss and its association with preinjury and postinjury mental health, injury, demographic, health, social and other factors.

METHODS

Multicentre, longitudinal study recruiting hospitalised employed individuals aged 16-69 years with unintentional injuries, followed up at 1, 2, 4 and 12 months. Participants completed questionnaires on injury, demographic factors, health (including mental health), social factors, other factors and on-the-job productivity upon return to work (RTW). ORs were estimated for above median productivity loss using random effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

217 adults had made an RTW at 2, 4 or 12 months after injury: 29% at 2 months, 66% at 4 months and 83% at 12 months. Productivity loss reduced over time: 3.3% of working time at 2 months, 1.7% at 4 months, 1% at 12 months. Significantly higher productivity loss was associated with preinjury psychiatric conditions (OR 21.40, 95% CI 3.50 to 130.78) and post-traumatic stress avoidance symptoms at 1 month (OR for 1-unit increase in score 1.15, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.22). Significantly lower productivity loss was associated with male gender (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.74), upper and lower limb injuries (vs other body regions, OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.81) and sports injuries (vs home, OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.78). Preinjury psychiatric conditions and gender remained significant in analysis of multiply imputed data.

CONCLUSIONS

Unintentional injury results in substantial productivity loss. Females, those with preinjury psychiatric conditions and those with post-traumatic stress avoidance symptoms experience greater productivity loss and may require additional support to enable successful RTW.

Hormone replacement therapy and cancer survival: a longitudinal cohort study: protocol paper

INTRODUCTION

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) can help women experiencing menopausal symptoms, but usage has declined due to uncertainty around risks of cancer and some cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Moreover, improved cancer survival rates mean that more women who survive cancer go on to experience menopausal symptoms. Understanding these relationships is important so that women and their clinicians can make informed decisions around the risks and benefits of HRT. This study's primary aim is to determine the association between HRT use after cancer diagnosis and the risk of cancer-specific mortality. The secondary aims are to investigate the risks of HRT on subsequent cancer, all-cause mortality and CVD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a population-based longitudinal cohort study of 18-79 year-old women diagnosed with cancer between 1998 and 2020, using the QResearch database. The main exposure is HRT use, categorised based on compound, dose and route of administration, and modelled as a time-varying covariate. Analysis of HRT use precancer and postcancer diagnosis will be conducted separately. The primary outcome is cancer-specific mortality, which will be stratified by cancer site. Secondary outcomes include subsequent cancer diagnosis, CVD (including venous thrombo-embolism) and all-cause mortality. Adjustment will be made for key confounders such as age, body mass index, ethnicity, deprivation index, comorbidities, and cancer grade, stage and treatment. Statistical analysis will include descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazards models to calculate HRs and 95% CIs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for this project was obtained from the QResearch Scientific Committee (Ref: OX24, project title 'Use of hormone replacement therapy and survival from cancer'). This project has been, and will continue to be, supported by patient and public involvement panels. We intend to the submit the findings for peer-reviewed publication in an academic journal and disseminate them to the public through Cancer Research UK.

'Real world' effectiveness of the Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme: an implementation study

BACKGROUND

Falls incidence increases with age alongside declines in strength and balance. Clinical trials show that the Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme improves strength and balance, which can reduce falls and improve physical functioning.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the clinical trial efficacy of FaME translates into effectiveness in non-research settings.

DESIGN AND SETTING

An implementation study of FaME in 10 local authorities across the East Midlands region of England.

SUBJECTS

Adults aged 65 and over enrolled on a FaME programme.

METHOD

Anonymised outcome data collected by the FaME providers were compared at baseline, end of programme and 6 months follow-up using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

For 348 adults enrolled in programmes and analysed, the mean age was 76.8, 73% were female and 143 (41%) completed ≥75% of classes. Overall confidence in balance, fear of falling, functional reach and timed-up-and-go (all P < 0.001), and turn 180° (P = 0.008) improved significantly at programme completion versus baseline, but improvements were not maintained 6 months later. Falls risk (FRAT score) and total minutes of physical activity did not change significantly though minutes of strength and balance activity increased by 55% at programme completion and was maintained at 6 months. The falls incidence rate ratio (IRR) was non-significantly lower at programme completion (IRR 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.48,1.21) and follow-up (IRR 0.82 95% CI 0.48,1.39) versus baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

There is modest translation of FaME efficacy into effectiveness, but not all effects persist after completion. Strategies to aid adherence and exercise maintenance are important to maximise benefits.

Mortality and critical care unit admission associated with the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England: an observational cohort study

Background

A more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2, the variant of concern 202012/01 or lineage B.1.1.7, has emerged in the UK. We aimed to estimate the risk of critical care admission, mortality in patients who are critically ill, and overall mortality associated with lineage B.1.1.7 compared with non-B.1.1.7. We also compared clinical outcomes between these two groups.

Methods

For this observational cohort study, we linked large primary care (QResearch), national critical care (Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme), and national COVID-19 testing (Public Health England) databases. We used SARS-CoV-2 positive samples with S-gene molecular diagnostic assay failure (SGTF) as a proxy for the presence of lineage B.1.1.7. We extracted two cohorts from the data: the primary care cohort, comprising patients in primary care with a positive community COVID-19 test reported between Nov 1, 2020, and Jan 26, 2021, and known SGTF status; and the critical care cohort, comprising patients admitted for critical care with a positive community COVID-19 test reported between Nov 1, 2020, and Jan 27, 2021, and known SGTF status. We explored the associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection with and without lineage B.1.1.7 and admission to a critical care unit (CCU), 28-day mortality, and 28-day mortality following CCU admission. We used Royston-Parmar models adjusted for age, sex, geographical region, other sociodemographic factors (deprivation index, ethnicity, household housing category, and smoking status for the primary care cohort; and ethnicity, body-mass index, deprivation index, and dependency before admission to acute hospital for the CCU cohort), and comorbidities (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 1 and 2 diabetes, and hypertension for the primary care cohort; and cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, metastatic disease, and immunocompromised conditions for the CCU cohort). We reported information on types and duration of organ support for the B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 groups.

Findings

The primary care cohort included 198 420 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of these, 117 926 (59·4%) had lineage B.1.1.7, 836 (0·4%) were admitted to CCU, and 899 (0·4%) died within 28 days. The critical care cohort included 4272 patients admitted to CCU. Of these, 2685 (62·8%) had lineage B.1.1.7 and 662 (15·5%) died at the end of critical care. In the primary care cohort, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 2·15 (95% CI 1·75–2·65) for CCU admission and 1·65 (1·36–2·01) for 28-day mortality for patients with lineage B.1.1.7 compared with the non-B.1.1.7 group. The adjusted HR for mortality in critical care, estimated with the critical care cohort, was 0·91 (0·76–1·09) for patients with lineage B.1.1.7 compared with those with non-B.1.1.7 infection.

Interpretation

Patients with lineage B.1.1.7 were at increased risk of CCU admission and 28-day mortality compared with patients with non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. For patients receiving critical care, mortality appeared to be independent of virus strain. Our findings emphasise the importance of measures to control exposure to and infection with COVID-19.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the Medical Sciences Division of the University of Oxford.