The Impact of Morbidities Following Pediatric Cardiac Surgery on Family Functioning and Parent Quality of Life

We previously selected and defined nine important post-operative morbidities linked to paediatric cardiac surgery, and prospectively measured their incidence following 3090 consecutive operations. Our aim was to study the impact of these morbidities on family functioning and parental quality of life over 6 months in a subset of cases. As part of a prospective case matched study in five of the ten children's cardiac centers in the UK, we compared outcomes for parents of children who had a 'single morbidity', 'multiple morbidities', 'extracorporeal life support (ECLS)' or 'no morbidity'. Outcomes were evaluated using the PedsQL Family impact module (FIM) at 6 weeks and 6 months post-surgery. Outcomes were modelled using mixed effects regression, with adjustment for case mix and clustering within centers. We recruited 340 patients with morbidity (60% of eligible patients) and 326 with no morbidity over 21 months. In comparison to the reference group of 'no morbidity', after adjustment for case mix, at 6 weeks parent health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and total FIM sores were lower (worse) only for ECLS (p < 0.005), although a higher proportion of parents in both the ECLS and multi-morbidity groups had low/very low scores (p < .05). At 6 months, parent outcomes had improved for all groups but parent HRQoL and total score for ECLS remained lower than the 'no morbidity' group (p < .05) and a higher proportion of families had low or very low scores in the ECLS (70%) group (p < .01). Post-operative morbidities impact parent HRQoL and aspects of family functioning early after surgery, with this impact lessening by 6 months. Families of children who experience post-operative morbidities should be offered timely psychological support.

Hospital admissions linked to SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents: cohort study of 3.2 million first ascertained infections in England

OBJECTIVE

To describe hospital admissions associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents.

DESIGN

Cohort study of 3.2 million first ascertained SARS-CoV-2 infections using electronic health care record data.

SETTING

England, July 2020 to February 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

About 12 million children and adolescents (age <18 years) who were resident in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Ascertainment of a first SARS-CoV-2 associated hospital admissions: due to SARS-CoV-2, with SARS-CoV-2 as a contributory factor, incidental to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and hospital acquired SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

3 226 535 children and adolescents had a recorded first SARS-CoV-2 infection during the observation period, and 29 230 (0.9%) infections involved a SARS-CoV-2 associated hospital admission. The median length of stay was 2 (interquartile range 1-4) days) and 1710 of 29 230 (5.9%) SARS-CoV-2 associated admissions involved paediatric critical care. 70 deaths occurred in which covid-19 or paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome was listed as a cause, of which 55 (78.6%) were in participants with a SARS-CoV-2 associated hospital admission. SARS-CoV-2 was the cause or a contributory factor in 21 000 of 29 230 (71.8%) participants who were admitted to hospital and only 380 (1.3%) participants acquired infection as an inpatient and 7855 (26.9%) participants were admitted with incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. Boys, younger children (<5 years), and those from ethnic minority groups or areas of high deprivation were more likely to be admitted to hospital (all P<0.001). The covid-19 vaccination programme in England has identified certain conditions as representing a higher risk of admission to hospital with SARS-CoV-2: 11 085 (37.9%) of participants admitted to hospital had evidence of such a condition, and a further 4765 (16.3%) of participants admitted to hospital had a medical or developmental health condition not included in the vaccination programme's list.

CONCLUSIONS

Most SARS-CoV-2 associated hospital admissions in children and adolescents in England were due to SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2 was a contributory factor. These results should inform future public health initiatives and research.

Hospital resource utilization in a national cohort of functionally single ventricle patients undergoing surgical treatment

Objective

The study objective was to provide a detailed overview of health resource use from birth to 18 years old for patients with functionally single ventricles and identify associated risk factors.

Methods

All patients with functionally single ventricles treated between 2000 and 2017 in England and Wales were linked to hospital and outpatient records using data from the Linking AUdit and National datasets in Congenital HEart Services project. Hospital stay was described in yearly age intervals, and associated risk factors were explored using quantile regression.

Results

A total of 3037 patients with functionally single ventricles were included, 1409 (46.3%) undergoing a Fontan procedure. During the first year of life, the median days spent in hospital was 60 (interquartile range, 37-102), mostly inpatient days, mirroring a mortality of 22.8%. This decreases to between 2 and 9 in-hospital days/year afterward. Between 2 and 18 years, most hospital days were outpatient, with a median of 1 to 5 days/year. Lower age at the first procedure, hypoplastic left heart syndrome/mitral atresia, unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect, preterm birth, congenital/acquired comorbidities, additional cardiac risk factors, and severity of illness markers were associated with fewer days at home and more intensive care unit days in the first year of life. Only markers of early severe illness were associated with fewer days at home in the first 6 months after the Fontan procedure.

Conclusions

Hospital resource use in functionally single ventricle cases is not uniform, decreasing 10-fold during adolescence compared with the first year of life. There are subsets of patients with worse outcomes during their first year of life or with persistently high hospital use throughout their childhood, which could be the target of future research.

A Methodological Framework for Assessing the Benefit of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination following Previous Infection: Case Study of Five- to Eleven-Year-Olds

Vaccination rates against SARS-CoV-2 in children aged five to eleven years remain low in many countries. The current benefit of vaccination in this age group has been questioned given that the large majority of children have now experienced at least one SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, protection from infection, vaccination or both wanes over time. National decisions on offering vaccines to this age group have tended to be made without considering time since infection. There is an urgent need to evaluate the additional benefits of vaccination in previously infected children and under what circumstances those benefits accrue. We present a novel methodological framework for estimating the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected children aged five to eleven, accounting for waning. We apply this framework to the UK context and for two adverse outcomes: hospitalisation related to SARS-CoV-2 infection and Long Covid. We show that the most important drivers of benefit are: the degree of protection provided by previous infection; the protection provided by vaccination; the time since previous infection; and future attack rates. Vaccination can be very beneficial for previously infected children if future attack rates are high and several months have elapsed since the previous major wave in this group. Benefits are generally larger for Long Covid than hospitalisation, because Long Covid is both more common than hospitalisation and previous infection offers less protection against it. Our framework provides a structure for policy makers to explore the additional benefit of vaccination across a range of adverse outcomes and different parameter assumptions. It can be easily updated as new evidence emerges.

Long-term survival and center volume for functionally single-ventricle congenital heart disease in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

Long-term survival is an important metric for health care evaluation, especially in functionally single-ventricle (f-SV) congenital heart disease (CHD). This study's aim was to evaluate the relationship between center volume and long-term survival in f-SV CHD within the centralized health care service of England and Wales.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of children born with f-SV CHD between 2000 and 2018, using the national CHD procedure registry, with survival ascertained in 2020.

RESULTS

Of 56,039 patients, 3293 (5.9%) had f-SV CHD. Median age at first intervention was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR], 4, 27), and median follow-up time was 7.6 years (IQR, 1.0, 13.3). The largest diagnostic subcategories were hypoplastic left heart syndrome, 1276 (38.8%); tricuspid atresia, 440 (13.4%); and double-inlet left ventricle, 322 (9.8%). The survival rate at 1 year and 5 years was 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 75.3%-78.2%) and 72.1% (95% CI, 70.6%-73.7%), respectively. The unadjusted hazard ratio for each 5 additional patients with f-SV starting treatment per center per year was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02-1.06), P < .001. However, after adjustment for significant risk factors (diagnostic subcategory; antenatal diagnosis; younger age, low weight, acquired comorbidity, increased severity of illness at first procedure), the hazard ratio for f-SV center volume was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.99-1.04) P = .28. There was strong evidence that patients with more complex f-SV (hypoplastic left heart syndrome, Norwood pathway) were treated at centers with greater f-SV case volume (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for case mix, there was no evidence that f-SV center volume was linked to longer-term survival in the centralized health service provided by the 10 children's cardiac centers in England and Wales.

COVID-19 and children

There has been substantial research on adult COVID-19 and how to treat it. But how do severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections afflict children? The COVID-19 pandemic has yielded many surprises, not least that children generally develop less severe disease than older adults, which is unusual for a respiratory disease. However, some children can develop serious complications from COVID-19, such as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and Long Covid, even after mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. Why this occurs in some and not others is an important question. Moreover, when children do contract COVID-19, understanding their role in transmission, especially in schools and at home, is crucial to ensuring effective mitigation measures. Therefore, in addition to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as improved ventilation, there is a strong case to vaccinate children so as to reduce possible long-term effects from infection and to decrease transmission. But questions remain about whether vaccination might skew immune responses to variants in the long term. As the experts discuss below, more is being learned about these important issues, but much more research is needed to understand the long-term effects of COVID-19 in children.

Transfer of congenital heart patients from paediatric to adult services in England

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the transfer of patients from paediatric cardiac to adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) services in England and the factors impacting on this process.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used a population-based linked data set (LAUNCHES QI data set: 'Linking Audit and National datasets in Congenital Heart Services for Quality Improvement') including all patients born between 1987 and 2000, recorded as having a congenital heart disease (CHD) procedure in childhood. Hospital Episode Statistics data identified transfer from paediatric to ACHD services between the ages of 16 and 22 years.

RESULTS

Overall, 63.8% of a cohort of 10 298 patients transferred by their 22nd birthday. The estimated probability of transfer by age 22 was 96.5% (95% CI 95.3 to 97.7), 86.7% (95% CI 85.6 to 87.9) and 41.0% (95% CI 39.4 to 42.6) for severe, moderate and mild CHD, respectively. 166 patients (1.6%) died between 16 and 22 years; 42 of these (0.4%) died after age 16 but prior to transfer. Multivariable ORs in the moderate and severe CHD groups up to age 20 showed significantly lower likelihood of transfer among female patients (0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.97), those with missing ethnicity data (0.31, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.52), those from deprived areas (0.84, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.98) and those with moderate (compared with severe) CHD (0.30, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.35). The odds of transfer were lower for the horizontal compared with the vertical care model (0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.72). Patients who did not transfer had a lower probability of a further National Congenital Heart Disease Audit procedure between ages 20 and 30 compared with those who did transfer: 12.3% (95% CI 5.1 to 19.6) vs 32.5% (95% CI 28.7 to 36.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Majority of patients with moderate or severe CHD in England transfer to adult services. Patients who do not transfer undergo fewer elective CHD procedures over the following decade.

COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status.

FINDINGS

Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1.

INTERPRETATION

Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK.

Linkage of National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data to hospital, critical care and mortality national data sets to enable research focused on quality improvement

OBJECTIVES

To link five national data sets (three registries, two administrative) and create longitudinal healthcare trajectories for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), describing the quality and the summary statistics of the linked data set.

DESIGN

Bespoke linkage of record-level patient identifiers across five national data sets. Generation of spells of care defined as periods of time-overlapping events across the data sets.

SETTING

National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) procedures in public (National Health Service; NHS) hospitals in England and Wales, paediatric and adult intensive care data sets (Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network; PICANet and the Case Mix Programme from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; ICNARC-CMP), administrative hospital episodes (hospital episode statistics; HES inpatient, outpatient, accident and emergency; A&E) and mortality registry data.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with any CHD procedure recorded in NCHDA between April 2000 and March 2017 from public hospitals.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: number of linked records, number of unique patients and number of generated spells of care. Secondary: quality and completeness of linkage.

RESULTS

There were 143 862 records in NCHDA relating to 96 041 unique patients. We identified 65 797 linked PICANet patient admissions, 4664 linked ICNARC-CMP admissions and over 6 million linked HES episodes of care (1.1M inpatient, 4.7M outpatient). The linked data set had 4 908 153 spells of care after quality checks, with a median (IQR) of 3.4 (1.8-6.3) spells per patient-year. Where linkage was feasible (in terms of year and centre), 95.6% surgical procedure records were linked to a corresponding HES record, 93.9% paediatric (cardiac) surgery procedure records to a corresponding PICANet admission and 76.8% adult surgery procedure records to a corresponding ICNARC-CMP record.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully linked four national data sets to the core data set of all CHD procedures performed between 2000 and 2017. This will enable a much richer analysis of longitudinal patient journeys and outcomes. We hope that our detailed description of the linkage process will be useful to others looking to link national data sets to address important research priorities.

"Back to normal" is not enough

As the world reflects on 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to change how to tackle the enormous challenges of the future. The good news is that the past 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that change is possible.

Open science communication: the first year of the UK's Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a light on the complex relationship between science and policy. Policymakers have had to make decisions at speed in conditions of uncertainty, implementing policies that have had profound consequences for people's lives. Yet this process has sometimes been characterised by fragmentation, opacity and a disconnect between evidence and policy. In the United Kingdom, concerns about the secrecy that initially surrounded this process led to the creation of Independent SAGE, an unofficial group of scientists from different disciplines that came together to ask policy-relevant questions, review the evolving evidence, and make evidence-based recommendations. The group took a public health approach with a population perspective, worked in a holistic transdisciplinary way, and were committed to public engagement. In this paper, we review the lessons learned during its first year. These include the importance of learning from local expertise, the value of learning from other countries, the role of civil society as a critical friend to government, finding appropriate relationships between science and policy, and recognising the necessity of viewing issues through an equity lens.

Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a risk-benefit analysis

OBJECTIVE

To offer a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England.

SETTING

England.

DESIGN

Following the risk-benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12-17 in England. We then used these rates alongside a range of estimates for incidence of long COVID, vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced myocarditis, to estimate hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID over a period of 16 weeks under assumptions of high and low case incidence.

PARTICIPANTS

All 12-17 year olds with a record of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021 using national linked electronic health records, accessed through the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hospitalisations, Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID averted by vaccinating all 12-17 year olds in England over a 16-week period under different estimates of future case incidence.

RESULTS

At high future case incidence of 1000/100,000 population/week over 16 weeks, vaccination could avert 4430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks. At the low incidence of 50/100,000/week, vaccination could avert 70 hospital admissions and two deaths over 16 weeks. The benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalisations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week). Benefit of vaccination exists at any case rate for the outcomes of death and long COVID, since neither have been associated with vaccination to date.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the current (as at 15 September 2021) high case rates (680/100,000 population/week in 10-19 year olds) in England, our findings support vaccination of adolescents against SARS-CoV2.

Cohort study of intervened functionally univentricular heart in England and Wales (2000-2018)

Objective

Given the paucity of long-term outcome data for complex congenital heart disease (CHD), we aimed to describe the treatment pathways and survival for patients who started interventions for functionally univentricular heart (FUH) conditions, excluding hypoplastic left heart syndrome.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study using all procedure records from the National Congenital Heart Diseases Audit for children born in 2000–2018. The primary outcome was mortality, ascertained from the Office for National Statistics in 2020.

Results

Of 53 615 patients, 1557 had FUH: 55.9% were boys and 67.4% were of White ethnic groups. The largest diagnostic categories were tricuspid atresia (28.9%), double inlet left ventricle (21.0%) and unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) (15.2%). The ages at staged surgery were: initial palliation 11.5 (IQR 5.5–43.5) days, cavopulmonary shunt 9.2 (IQR 6.0–17.1) months and Fontan 56.2 (IQR 45.5–70.3) months. The median follow-up time was 10.8 (IQR 7.0–14.9) years and the 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates after initial palliation were 83.6% (95% CI 81.7% to 85.4%), 79.4% (95% CI 77.3% to 81.4%) and 77.2% (95% CI 75.0% to 79.2%), respectively. Higher hazards were present for unbalanced AVSD HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.17), atrial isomerism HR 1.75 (95% CI 1.14 to 2.70) and low weight HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.41), critical illness HR 2.30 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.18) or acquired comorbidities HR 2.71 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.04) at initial palliation.

Conclusion

Although treatment pathways for FUH are complex and variable, nearly 8 out of 10 children survived to 10 years. Longer-term analyses of outcome based on diagnosis (rather than procedure) can inform parents, patients and clinicians, driving practice improvements for complex CHD.

Tackling the pandemic with (biased) data

[Figure: see text].

What was the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 on the delivery of care to children and adults with congenital heart disease? A qualitative study using online forums

OBJECTIVES

Globally, healthcare systems have been stretched to the limit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant changes have had to be made to the way in which non-COVID-19-related care has been delivered. Our objective was to understand, from the perspective of patients with a chronic, life-long condition (congenital heart disease, CHD) and their parents/carers, the impact of COVID-19 on the delivery of care, how changes were communicated and whether healthcare providers should do anything differently in a subsequent wave of COVID-19 infections.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Qualitative study involving a series of asynchronous discussion forums set up and moderated by three patient charities via their Facebook pages.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with CHD and parents/carers of patients with CHD.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Qualitative responses to questions posted on the discussion forums.

RESULTS

The forums ran over a 6-week period and involved 109 participants. Following thematic analysis, we identified three themes and 10 subthemes related to individual condition-related factors, patient-related factors and health professional/centre factors that may have influenced how patients and parents/carers experienced changes to service delivery as a result of COVID-19. Specifically, respondents reported high levels of disruption to the delivery of care, inconsistent advice and messaging and variable communication from health professionals, with examples of both excellent and very poor experiences of care reported. Uncertainty about follow-up and factors related to the complexity and stability of their condition contributed to anxiety and stress.

CONCLUSIONS

The importance of clear, consistent communication cannot be over-estimated. Our findings, while collected in relation to patients with CHD, are not necessarily specific to this population and we believe that they reflect the experiences of many thousands of people with life-long conditions in the UK. Recommendations related to communication, service delivery and support during the pandemic may improve patients' experience of care and, potentially, their outcomes.

The association between mechanical ventilator compatible bed occupancy and mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19: a national retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The literature paints a complex picture of the association between mortality risk and ICU strain. In this study, we sought to determine if there is an association between mortality risk in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, as a proxy for strain.

METHODS

A national retrospective observational cohort study of 89 English hospital trusts (i.e. groups of hospitals functioning as single operational units). Seven thousand one hundred thirty-three adults admitted to an ICU in England between 2 April and 1 December, 2020 (inclusive), with presumed or confirmed COVID-19, for whom data was submitted to the national surveillance programme and met study inclusion criteria. A Bayesian hierarchical approach was used to model the association between hospital trust level (mechanical ventilation compatible), bed occupancy, and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Results were adjusted for unit characteristics (pre-pandemic size), individual patient-level demographic characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation index, time-to-ICU admission), and recorded chronic comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, respiratory disease, liver disease, heart disease, hypertension, immunosuppression, neurological disease, renal disease).

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-five thousand six hundred patient days were observed, with a mortality rate of 19.4 per 1000 patient days. Adjusting for patient-level factors, mortality was higher for admissions during periods of high occupancy (> 85% occupancy versus the baseline of 45 to 85%) [OR 1.23 (95% posterior credible interval (PCI): 1.08 to 1.39)]. In contrast, mortality was decreased for admissions during periods of low occupancy (< 45% relative to the baseline) [OR 0.83 (95% PCI 0.75 to 0.94)].

CONCLUSION

Increasing occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, a proxy for operational strain, is associated with a higher mortality risk for individuals admitted to ICU. Further research is required to establish if this is a causal relationship or whether it reflects strain on other operational factors such as staff. If causal, the result highlights the importance of strategies to keep ICU occupancy low to mitigate the impact of this type of resource saturation.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions: the experience of applying for national data for linkage and suggestions for improvement

BACKGROUND

We can improve healthcare services by better understanding current provision. One way to understand this is by linking data sets from clinical and national audits, national registries and other National Health Service (NHS) encounter data. However, getting to the point of having linked national data sets is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

We describe our experience of the data application and linkage process for our study 'LAUNCHES QI', and the time, processes and resource requirements involved. To help others planning similar projects, we highlight challenges encountered and advice for applications in the current system as well as suggestions for system improvements.

FINDINGS

The study set up for LAUNCHES QI began in March 2018, and the process through to data acquisition took 2.5 years. Several challenges were encountered, including the amount of information required (often duplicate information in different formats across applications), lack of clarity on processes, resource constraints that limit an audit's capacity to fulfil requests and the unexpected amount of time required from the study team. It is incredibly difficult to estimate the resources needed ahead of time, and yet necessary to do so as early on as funding applications. Early decisions can have a significant impact during latter stages and be hard to change, yet it is difficult to get specific information at the beginning of the process.

CONCLUSIONS

The current system is incredibly complex, arduous and slow, stifling innovation and delaying scientific progress. NHS data can inform and improve health services and we believe there is an ethical responsibility to use it to do so. Streamlining the number of applications required for accessing data for health services research and providing clarity to data controllers could facilitate the maintenance of stringent governance, while accelerating scientific studies and progress, leading to swifter application of findings and improvements in healthcare.

Development of a parent experience measure for paediatric critical care transport teams

BACKGROUND

A third of children admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the United Kingdom (UK) are transported by paediatric critical care transport services (PCCTs). Parents have described the transfer journey as particularly stressful. Critical care nurses have a key role in mitigating the impact of the journey on parents. Evaluating parents' experiences is important to inform service improvements.

AIM AND OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to describe the development of a new measure of parents' experiences of PCCTs, derived from data collected in the Differences in access to Emergency Paediatric Intensive Care and care during Transport (DEPICT) study.

DESIGN

A descriptive cross-sectional survey was used.

METHODS

As part of the DEPICT study, a 17-item transport experience questionnaire was developed and given to parents of children transported by PCCTs to 24 UK PICUs during a 12-month period. Analyses included exploratory factor analysis and a validation review by a PCCT stakeholder group.

RESULTS

Families of 1722 children (1798 journeys) completed questionnaires. Five items were excluded from further analysis as correlation coefficients were <0.3. Two factors explained 53% of the variance and all 12 items loaded on one of these factors. Factor 1 (8 items) explained 47% of the variance, had excellent internal reliability and the clustered items were conceptually coherent with a specific relevance to PCCTs; these were offered for consideration, with other items possibly discarded. Twenty-eight PCCT clinicians reviewed the questions. Using a 70% agreement threshold, one additional, previously discarded, item was identified for inclusion, resulting in a nine-item experience measure.

CONCLUSION

Our brief measure of parents' experience of critical care transport provides a standardized measure that can be used across all PCCTs, enabling national benchmarking of services and potentially increasing the collection and use of parent experience data to improve services.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Being able to measure experience provides an opportunity to understand how to make services better to improve experience.

The effect of care provided by paediatric critical care transport teams on mortality of children transported to paediatric intensive care units in England and Wales: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Centralisation of paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) has the increased the need for specialist paediatric critical care transport teams (PCCT) to transport critically ill children to PICU. We investigated the impact of care provided by PCCTs for children on mortality and other clinically important outcomes.

Methods

We analysed linked national data from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) from children admitted to PICUs in England and Wales (2014–2016) to assess the impact of who led the child’s transport, whether prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was detrimental and the impact of critical incidents during transport on patient outcome. We used logistic regression models to estimate the adjusted odds and probability of mortality within 30 days of admission to PICU (primary outcome) and negative binomial models to investigate length of stay (LOS) and length of invasive ventilation (LOV).

Results

The study included 9112 children transported to PICU. The most common diagnosis was respiratory problems; junior doctors led the PCCT in just over half of all transports; and the 30-day mortality was 7.1%. Transports led by Advanced Nurse Practitioners and Junior Doctors had similar outcomes (adjusted mortality ANP: 0.035 versus Junior Doctor: 0.038). Prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was possibly associated with increased mortality (0.059, 95% CI: 0.040 to 0.079 versus short stabilisation 0.044, 95% CI: 0.039 to 0.048). Critical incidents involving the child increased the adjusted odds of mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 3.07).

Conclusions

Variations in team composition between PCCTs appear to have little effect on patient outcomes. We believe differences in stabilisation approaches are due to residual confounding. Our finding that critical incidents were associated with worse outcomes indicates that safety during critical care transport is an important area for future quality improvement work.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-021-02689-x.

Using a genetic algorithm to solve a non-linear location allocation problem for specialised children’s ambulances in England and Wales

Since 1997, special paediatric intensive care retrieval teams (PICRTs) based in 11 locations across England and Wales have been used to transport sick children from district general hospitals to one of 24 paediatric intensive care units. We develop a location allocation optimisation framework to help inform decisions on the optimal number of locations for each PICRT, where those locations should be, which local hospital each location serves and how many teams should station each location. Our framework allows for stochastic journey times, differential weights for each journey leg and incorporates queuing theory by considering the time spent waiting for a PICRT to become available. We examine the average waiting time and the average time to bedside under different number of operational PICRT stations, different number of teams per station and different levels of demand. We show that consolidating the teams into fewer stations for higher availability leads to better performance.

Neurodevelopmental status and follow-up in preschool children with heart disease in London, UK

OBJECTIVE

To describe neurodevelopment and follow-up services in preschool children with heart disease (HD).

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a prospectively collected multicentre dataset.

SETTING

Three London tertiary cardiac centres.

PATIENTS

Preschool children<5 years of age: both inpatients and outpatients.

METHODS

We analysed results of Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) and parental report of follow-up services in a representative convenience sample evaluated between January 2014 and July 2015 within a previous study.

RESULTS

Of 971 preschool children: 577 (59.4%) had ≥1 heart operation, 236 (24.3%) had a known diagnosis linked to developmental delay (DD) ('known group') and 130 (13.4%) had history of clinical event linked to DD. On MSEL assessment, 643 (66.2%) had normal development, 181 (18.6%) had borderline scores and 147 (15.1%) had scores indicative of DD. Of 971 children, 609 (62.7%) were not receiving follow-up linked to child development and were more likely to be under these services with a known group diagnosis, history of clinical event linked to DD and DD (defined by MSEL). Of 236 in known group, parents of 77 (32.6%) and of 48 children not in a known group but with DD 29 (60.4%), reported no child development related follow-up. DD defined by MSEL assessment was more likely with a known group and older age at assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that a 'structured neurodevelopmental follow-up pathway' in preschool children with HD should be considered for development and evaluation as children get older, with particular focus on those at higher risk.

Factors associated with unplanned reinterventions and their relation to early mortality after pediatric cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVE

Unplanned reintervention (uRE) is used as an indicator of patient morbidity and quality of care in pediatric cardiac surgery. We investigated associated factors and early mortality after uREs.

METHODS

Morbidity data were prospectively collected in 5 UK centers between 2015 and 2017; uRE included surgical cardiac, interventional transcatheter cardiac, permanent pacemaker, and diaphragm plication procedures. Mortality (30-day and 6-month) in uRE/no-uRE patients was reported before and after matching. Predicted 30-day mortality was calculated using the Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery score.

RESULTS

A total of 3090 procedures (2861 patients) were included (median age, 228 days). There were 146 uREs, resulting in an uRE rate of 4.7%. Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery score, 30-day mortality and 6-month mortality in uRE and no-uRE groups were 2.4% versus 1.3%, 8.9% versus 1%, and 17.1% versus 2.4%, respectively. After matching, mortality at 6 months remained higher in uRE compared with no-uRE (12.2% vs 1.4%; P = .02; 74 pairs). In the uRE group, 21 out of 25 deaths at 6 months occurred when at least 1 additional postoperative complication was present. In multivariable analysis, neonatal age (P = .002), low weight (P = .009), univentricular heart (P < .001), and arterial shunt (P < .001) were associated with increased risk of uRE, but Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery score was not (only in univariable analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

uREs are a relatively frequent complication after pediatric cardiac surgery and are associated with some patient characteristics, but not the Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery risk score. Early mortality was higher after uRE, independent of preoperative factors, but linked to other postoperative complications.

Costs of postoperative morbidity following paediatric cardiac surgery: observational study

OBJECTIVE

Early mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery have fallen due to advancements in care. Alternative indicators of care quality are needed. Postoperative morbidities are of particular interest. However, while health impacts have been reported, associated costs are unknown. Our objective was to calculate the costs of postoperative morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery.

DESIGN

Two methods of data collection were integrated into the main study: (1) case-matched cohort study of children with and without predetermined morbidities; (2) incidence rates of morbidity, measured prospectively.

SETTING

Five specialist paediatric cardiac surgery centres, accounting for half of UK patients.

PATIENTS

Cohort study included 666 children (340 with morbidities). Incidence rates were measured in 3090 consecutive procedures.

METHODS

Risk-adjusted regression modelling to determine marginal effects of morbidities on per-patient costs. Calculation of costs for hospital providers according to incidence rates. Extrapolation using mandatory audit data to report annual financial burden for the health service.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Impact of postoperative morbidities on per-patient costs, hospital costs and UK health service costs.

RESULTS

Seven of the 10 morbidity categories resulted in significant costs, with mean (95% CI) additional costs ranging from £7483 (£3-£17 289) to £66 784 (£40 609-£103 539) per patient. On average all morbidities combined increased hospital costs by 22.3%. Total burden to the UK health service exceeded £21 million each year.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative morbidities are associated with a significant financial burden. Our findings could aid clinical teams and hospital providers to account for costs and contextualise quality improvement initiatives.

Early morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery: a mixed-methods study

Background

Over 5000 paediatric cardiac surgeries are performed in the UK each year and early survival has improved to > 98%.

Objectives

We aimed to identify the surgical morbidities that present the greatest burden for patients and health services and to develop and pilot routine monitoring and feedback.

Design and setting

Our multidisciplinary mixed-methods study took place over 52 months across five UK paediatric cardiac surgery centres.

Participants

The participants were children aged < 17 years.

Methods

We reviewed existing literature, ran three focus groups and undertook a family online discussion forum moderated by the Children’s Heart Federation. A multidisciplinary group, with patient and carer involvement, then ranked and selected nine key morbidities informed by clinical views on definitions and feasibility of routine monitoring. We validated a new, nurse-administered early warning tool for assessing preoperative and postoperative child development, called the brief developmental assessment, by testing this among 1200 children. We measured morbidity incidence in 3090 consecutive surgical admissions over 21 months and explored risk factors for morbidity. We measured the impact of morbidities on quality of life, clinical burden and costs to the NHS and families over 6 months in 666 children, 340 (51%) of whom had at least one morbidity. We developed and piloted methods suitable for routine monitoring of morbidity by centres and co-developed new patient information about morbidities with parents and user groups.

Results

Families and clinicians prioritised overlapping but also different morbidities, leading to a final list of acute neurological event, unplanned reoperation, feeding problems, renal replacement therapy, major adverse events, extracorporeal life support, necrotising enterocolitis, surgical infection and prolonged pleural effusion. The brief developmental assessment was valid in children aged between 4 months and 5 years, but not in the youngest babies or 5- to 17-year-olds. A total of 2415 (78.2%) procedures had no measured morbidity. There was a higher risk of morbidity in neonates, complex congenital heart disease, increased preoperative severity of illness and with prolonged bypass. Patients with any morbidity had a 6-month survival of 81.5% compared with 99.1% with no morbidity. Patients with any morbidity scored 5.2 points lower on their total quality of life score at 6 weeks, but this difference had narrowed by 6 months. Morbidity led to fewer days at home by 6 months and higher costs. Extracorporeal life support patients had the lowest days at home (median: 43 days out of 183 days) and highest costs (£71,051 higher than no morbidity).

Limitations

Monitoring of morbidity is more complex than mortality, and hence this requires resources and clinician buy-in.

Conclusions

Evaluation of postoperative morbidity provides important information over and above 30-day survival and should become the focus of audit and quality improvement.

Future work

National audit of morbidities has been initiated. Further research is needed to understand the implications of feeding problems and renal failure and to evaluate the brief developmental assessment.

Funding

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Global PRoMiSe (Perioperative Recommendations for Medication Safety): protocol for a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Medication errors (MEs), which occur commonly in the perioperative period, have the potential to cause patient harm or death. Many published recommendations exist for preventing perioperative MEs; however, many of these recommendations conflict and are often not applicable to middle-income and low-income countries. The goal of this study is to develop and disseminate consensus-based recommendations for perioperative medication safety that are tailored to country income level.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The primary site of this mixed-methods study is Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard Medical School. Participants include a minimum of 108 international medication safety experts, 27 from each of the World Bank's four country income groups (high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income). Using the Delphi method, participants will rate the appropriateness of candidate medication safety recommendations by completing online surveys using RedCAP. We will use Condorcet ranking methods to prioritise the final recommendations for each country income group. We will execute a comprehensive dissemination strategy for the recommendations across each country income group. Finally, we will conduct semistructured interviews with our participants to evaluate the initial adoption and implementation of the recommendations in each country income group.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Human Research Committee/Institutional Review Board at Partners Healthcare (2019P003567). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at local and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04240301.

Does time taken by paediatric critical care transport teams to reach the bedside of critically ill children affect survival? A retrospective cohort study from England and Wales

Background

Reaching the bedside of a critically ill child within three hours of agreeing the child requires intensive care is a key target for Paediatric Critical Care Transport teams (PCCTs) to achieve in the United Kingdom. Whilst timely access to specialist care is necessary for these children, it is unknown to what extent time taken for the PCCT to arrive at the bedside affects clinical outcome.

Methods

Data from transports of critically ill children who were admitted to Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in England and Wales from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 were extracted from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) and linked with adult critical care data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Logistic regression models, adjusted for pre-specified confounders, were fitted to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on mortality within 30 days of admission and other key time points. Negative binomial models were used to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on PICU length of stay and duration of invasive ventilation.

Results

There were 9116 children transported during the study period, and 645 (7.1%) died within 30 days of PICU admission. There was no evidence that 30-day mortality changed as time-to-bedside increased. A similar relationship was seen for mortality at other pre-selected time points. In children who waited longer for a team to arrive, there was limited evidence of a small increase in PICU length of stay (expected number of days increased from: 7.17 to 7.58).

Conclusion

There is no evidence that reducing the time-to-bedside target for PCCTs will improve the survival of critically ill children. A shorter time to bedside may be associated with a small reduction in PICU length of stay.

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation.

FINDINGS

We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0.

INTERPRETATION

We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK.

Parental understanding of our communication of morbidity associated with paediatric cardiac surgery: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Following paediatric cardiac surgery, quality of life may be significantly impacted by morbidities associated with cardiac surgery. Parental understanding of the potential for postoperative morbidity is important for informed decision making. As part of a broader research study, we aimed to elicit parental understanding and experience of the communication of morbidities following their child's cardiac surgery, using traditional focus groups together with an online forum.

METHODS

The Children's Heart Federation set up and moderated a closed, anonymous online discussion group via their Facebook page, focusing on complications, information needs and methods of providing families with information. Additionally, we ran three focus groups with parents/carers, moderated by an experienced independent professional. Focus groups were recorded and transcribed and a single transcript was generated from the online forum. All transcripts were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

All data were collected in 2014. The forum ran over 3 months in 2014 and involved 72 participants. Focus groups involved 13 participants. Three broad themes were identified: (1) clinicians' use of language, (2) feeling unprepared for complications and (3) information needs of families.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians' language is often misunderstood, with wide variability in the way morbidities are described, and between differing teams looking after the same child. Information may not be easily absorbed or retained by families, who often felt unprepared for morbidities that arose after their child's heart surgery. Here, we propose key principles of good communication tailored to the individual receiving it.

Modelling the allocation of paediatric intensive care retrieval teams in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Following centralisation of UK paediatric intensive care units in 1997, specialist paediatric intensive care retrieval teams (PICRTs) were established to transport critically ill children from district general hospitals (DGHs). The current location and catchment area of PICRTs covering England and Wales are based on historical referral patterns. National quality standards specify that PICRTs should reach the patient bedside within 3 hours of accepting a referral.

OBJECTIVE

To determine what proportion of demand for PICRT services in England and Wales can be reached within 3 hours and to explore the potential coverage impact of more stringent 'time to bedside' standards.

METHODS

We used mathematical location-allocation methods to: (1) determine the optimal allocation of DGHs to current PICRT locations to minimise road journey time and calculated the proportion of demand reachable within 3 hours, 2 hours, 90 min, 75 min and 1 hour and (2) explore the impact of changing the number and location of PICRTs on demand coverage for the different time thresholds.

RESULTS

For current (and optimal) location of 11 PICRTs, 98% (98%) of demand is reachable within 3 hours; 86% (91%) within 2 hours; 59% (69%) within 90 min; 33% (39%) within 75 min; and 20% (20%) within 1 hour. Five hospitals were not reachable within 3 hours. For the 3-hour standard, eight optimally located PICRT locations had similar coverage as the current 11 locations.

CONCLUSIONS

If new evidence supports reduction in the time to bedside standard, many more hospitals will not be adequately covered. Location-allocation optimisation is a powerful technique for supporting evidence-based service configuration.