Identifying and managing disturbance-stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems

Many forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high-severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance-stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well-documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance-stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire-prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high-severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less-flammable stands. We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment. Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long-term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance-based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less-flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire-inhibitory properties of older, less-flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.

The ecological and biodiversity conservation values of farm dams: A systematic review

Biodiversity is in rapid decline globally with agriculture being one of the leading causes. Within agricultural landscapes, some features provide a benefit to biodiversity that is disproportionate to their spatial area. An interesting example is artificial ponds-or farm dams-which can support a large variety of taxa. Here, we present a global review of farm dam research related to biodiversity conservation objectives to provide an overview of the topics, key research insights, and the characteristics of current research. We used a three-stage process to screen literature and identified 104 relevant papers across 27 countries encompassing studies of 13 different taxa. Most of the studies were short-term (less than 5 years) with small sample sizes (less than 20 sites). Of the 104 papers, 88 were focussed primarily on ecological outcomes, such as species richness or abundance, and 15 on primary production outcomes, such as crop and livestock yield, despite addressing or measuring ecological metrics. Only one study measured both ecological and primary production outcomes. Studies frequently examined how the features of dams (79 studies) and attributes of the surrounding landscape (47 studies) impact particular species and communities. Terrestrial mammals (1 study) were under-represented in the literature with macrophytes (28 studies), macroinvertebrates (26 studies), and amphibians (19 studies) receiving the most attention. Our results reveal a growing trend towards recognizing farm dams as habitats for various taxa, including amphibians, beetles, dragonflies, and other macroinvertebrates within agricultural environments. Significant knowledge gaps exist in understanding how dam age, invasive species, and effective management practices impact the biodiversity conservation values of farm dams. Future research should emphasize enhancing biodiversity by collaborating with landholders to increase habitat through strategic vegetation planning, minimizing runoff and nutrient inflow, and restricting stock access.

Size-focused conservation may fail to protect the world's oldest trees

Old trees are irreplaceable natural resources that provide multifaceted benefits to humans. Current conservation strategies focus primarily on large-sized trees that were often considered old. However, some studies have demonstrated that small trees can be more than thousands of years old, suggesting that conventional size-focused perceptions may hamper the efficiency of current conservation strategies for old trees. Here, we compiled paired age and diameter data using tree-ring records sampled from 121,918 trees from 269 species around the world to detect whether tree size is a strong predictor of age for old trees and whether the spatial distribution of small old trees differs from that of large old trees. We found that tree size was a weak predictor of age for old trees, and diameter explained only 10% of the total age variance of old trees. Unlike large-sized trees that are mainly in warm, wet environments and protected, small old trees are predominantly in cold, dry environments and mostly unprotected, indicating that size-focused conservation failed to protect some of the oldest trees. To conserve old trees, comprehensive old-tree recognition systems are needed that consider not only tree size but also age and external characteristics. Protected areas designed for small old trees are urgently needed.

Increases in intraspecific body size variation are common among North American mammals and birds between 1880 and 2020

Many studies have documented the average body size of animals declining over time. Compared to mean body size, less is known about long-term changes in intraspecific trait variation (ITV), which is also important to understanding species' ability to cope with environmental challenges. On the basis of 393,499 specimen records from 380 species collected in North America between 1880 and 2020, we found that body size ITV increased by 9.59% for mammals (n = 302) and 30.67% for birds (n = 78); human-harvested species had higher probability of ITV increase. The observed increasing ITV in many species suggests possible niche expansion and potential buffering effects against downsizing but it risks increased maladaptation to rapidly changing environments. The results demonstrate that trait mean and variance do not necessarily respond in similar ways to anthropogenic pressures and both should be considered.

Who will name new plant species? Temporal change in the origins of taxonomists in China

Discovery rates of new plant species need to be accelerated because many species will be extinct before they are formally described. Current studies have focused on where new species may occur and their characteristics. However, who will actually discover and describe these new species has received limited attention. Here, we used 31 576 vascular plant species distributed and described in China as a case study to explore the temporal patterns of the nationalities of the taxonomists. We found that most recently described species are endemic species, and there has been an increasing proportion of species descriptions by resident Chinese taxonomists over time. The proportion of species described by resident taxonomists reached an average of 80.8% between 1977 and 2018. By contrast, species discoveries by non-resident experts, often non-endemic species, showed signs of levelling off. Our study underscores an urgent need for training of, support for and collaboration with resident taxonomists in megadiverse countries with a high potential of discovering undescribed plant species.

The effect of natural disturbances on forest biodiversity: an ecological synthesis

Disturbances alter biodiversity via their specific characteristics, including severity and extent in the landscape, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Biodiversity response to disturbance also depends on the community characteristics and habitat requirements of species. Untangling the mechanistic interplay of these factors has guided disturbance ecology for decades, generating mixed scientific evidence of biodiversity responses to disturbance. Understanding the impact of natural disturbances on biodiversity is increasingly important due to human-induced changes in natural disturbance regimes. In many areas, major natural forest disturbances, such as wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks, are becoming more frequent, intense, severe, and widespread due to climate change and land-use change. Conversely, the suppression of natural disturbances threatens disturbance-dependent biota. Using a meta-analytic approach, we analysed a global data set (with most sampling concentrated in temperate and boreal secondary forests) of species assemblages of 26 taxonomic groups, including plants, animals, and fungi collected from forests affected by wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks. The overall effect of natural disturbances on α-diversity did not differ significantly from zero, but some taxonomic groups responded positively to disturbance, while others tended to respond negatively. Disturbance was beneficial for taxonomic groups preferring conditions associated with open canopies (e.g. hymenopterans and hoverflies), whereas ground-dwelling groups and/or groups typically associated with shady conditions (e.g. epigeic lichens and mycorrhizal fungi) were more likely to be negatively impacted by disturbance. Across all taxonomic groups, the highest α-diversity in disturbed forest patches occurred under moderate disturbance severity, i.e. with approximately 55% of trees killed by disturbance. We further extended our meta-analysis by applying a unified diversity concept based on Hill numbers to estimate α-diversity changes in different taxonomic groups across a gradient of disturbance severity measured at the stand scale and incorporating other disturbance features. We found that disturbance severity negatively affected diversity for Hill number q = 0 but not for q = 1 and q = 2, indicating that diversity-disturbance relationships are shaped by species relative abundances. Our synthesis of α-diversity was extended by a synthesis of disturbance-induced change in species assemblages, and revealed that disturbance changes the β-diversity of multiple taxonomic groups, including some groups that were not affected at the α-diversity level (birds and woody plants). Finally, we used mixed rarefaction/extrapolation to estimate biodiversity change as a function of the proportion of forests that were disturbed, i.e. the disturbance extent measured at the landscape scale. The comparison of intact and naturally disturbed forests revealed that both types of forests provide habitat for unique species assemblages, whereas species diversity in the mixture of disturbed and undisturbed forests peaked at intermediate values of disturbance extent in the simulated landscape. Hence, the relationship between α-diversity and disturbance severity in disturbed forest stands was strikingly similar to the relationship between species richness and disturbance extent in a landscape consisting of both disturbed and undisturbed forest habitats. This result suggests that both moderate disturbance severity and moderate disturbance extent support the highest levels of biodiversity in contemporary forest landscapes.

Frontiers of protected areas versus forest exploitation: Assessing habitat network functionality in 16 case study regions globally

Exploitation of natural forests forms expanding frontiers. Simultaneously, protected area frontiers aim at maintaining functional habitat networks. To assess net effects of these frontiers, we examined 16 case study areas on five continents. We (1) mapped protected area instruments, (2) assessed their effectiveness, (3) mapped policy implementation tools, and (4) effects on protected areas originating from their surroundings. Results are given as follows: (1) conservation instruments covered 3-77%, (2) effectiveness of habitat networks depended on representativeness, habitat quality, functional connectivity, resource extraction in protected areas, time for landscape restoration, "paper parks", "fortress conservation", and data access, (3) regulatory policy instruments dominated over economic and informational, (4) negative matrix effects dominated over positive ones (protective forests, buffer zones, inaccessibility), which were restricted to former USSR and Costa Rica. Despite evidence-based knowledge about conservation targets, the importance of spatial segregation of conservation and use, and traditional knowledge, the trajectories for biodiversity conservation were generally negative.

Long-Term Empirical Studies Highlight Multiple Drivers of Temporal Change in Bird Fauna in the Wet Forests of Victoria, South-Eastern Australia

Birds are high profile elements of the vertebrate biota in almost all terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Many studies have uncovered evidence of a decline in bird biodiversity, but temporal patterns of change vary among ecosystems and among bird species with different life history traits. Ecosystem-specific, long-term studies are critical for identifying patterns of temporal change in bird biodiversity and the drivers of that change. Here we present a case study of drivers of temporal change in the bird fauna of the Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. Using insights from observational studies and experiments conducted over the past 18 years, we discuss the direct and interactive effects of fire and logging on birds. The extent and severity of wildfires have major negative effects on almost all bird species, and have persisted for more than a decade after the last major conflagration (in 2009). Logging has markedly different effects on birds than those quantified for fire, and may have resulted in elevated levels of site occupancy in remaining uncut areas in the landscape. Both fire and logging have led to marked losses in the extent of old growth forest in Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash ecosystems. This is a concern given the strong association of most species of birds with old forest relative to younger age cohorts. Based on an understanding of the effects of fire and logging as drivers of change, we propose a series of inter-related management actions designed to enhance the conservation of avifauna in Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash ecosystems. A particular focus of management must be on increasing the interval between fires and limiting the spatial extent of wildfires and, in turn, significantly expanding the extent of old growth forest. This is because old growth forest is where most bird species are most likely to occur, and in the event of future wildfires, where fire severity will be lowest. Expansion of the old growth estate will require commercial logging operations to be excluded from large parts of Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash forests.

Estimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity

Forests are increasingly affected by natural disturbances. Subsequent salvage logging, a widespread management practice conducted predominantly to recover economic capital, produces further disturbance and impacts biodiversity worldwide. Hence, naturally disturbed forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world, with consequences for their associated biodiversity. However, there are no evidence-based benchmarks for the proportion of area of naturally disturbed forests to be excluded from salvage logging to conserve biodiversity. We apply a mixed rarefaction/extrapolation approach to a global multi-taxa dataset from disturbed forests, including birds, plants, insects and fungi, to close this gap. We find that 75 ± 7% (mean ± SD) of a naturally disturbed area of a forest needs to be left unlogged to maintain 90% richness of its unique species, whereas retaining 50% of a naturally disturbed forest unlogged maintains 73 ± 12% of its unique species richness. These values do not change with the time elapsed since disturbance but vary considerably among taxonomic groups.

A checklist of attributes for effective monitoring of threatened species and threatened ecosystems

Monitoring of threatened species and threatened ecosystems is critical for determining population trends, identifying urgency of management responses, and assessing the efficacy of management interventions. Yet many threatened species and threatened ecosystems are not monitored and for those that are, the quality of the monitoring is often poor. Here we provide a checklist of factors that need to be considered for inclusion in robust monitoring programs for threatened species and threatened ecosystems. These factors can be grouped under four broad themes - the design of monitoring programs, the structure and governance of monitoring programs, data management and reporting, and appropriate funding and legislative support. We briefly discuss key attributes of our checklist under these themes. Key topics in our first theme of the design of monitoring programs include appropriate objective setting, identification of the most appropriate entities to be measured, consistency in methodology and protocols through time, ensuring monitoring is long-term, and embedding monitoring into management. Under our second theme which focuses on the structure and governance of monitoring programs for threatened species and ecosystems, we touch on the importance of adopting monitoring programs that: test the effectiveness of management interventions, produce results that are relevant to management, and engage with (and are accepted by) the community. Under Theme 3, we discuss why data management is critical and highlight that the costs of data curation, analysis and reporting need to be factored into budgets for monitoring programs. This requires that appropriate levels of funding are made available for monitoring programs, beyond just the cost of data collection - a key topic examined in Theme 4. We provide examples, often from Australia, to highlight the importance of each of the four themes. We recognize that these themes and topics in our checklist are often closely inter-related and therefore provide a conceptual model highlighting these linkages. We suggest that our checklist can help identify the parts of existing monitoring programs for threatened species and threatened ecosystems that are adequate for the purpose or may be deficient and need to be improved.

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.

Modelling water yields in response to logging and Representative Climate Futures

Natural and human disturbance along with climate change pose major challenges for resource management. This is relevant in natural forests, where conflict can occur between water provision and industrial logging. As a result, conversion of old forests to young, fast-growing stands through logging can dramatically reduce streamflow and water yield. We modelled changes in stream run-off and hence water yield from a forest catchment in response to clearcut logging and compared this with projected climate change (using a Representative Climate Futures [RCFs] approach). We focused on the Thomson Catchment, which is the largest single catchment for the city of Melbourne, south-eastern Australia. Within this catchment, we targeted our analysis at montane ash-type eucalypt forests, as these receive the most rainfall and are subject to clearcutting. We used several forest management scenarios to model changes in water yield over time. For our analysis of projected climate change, we employed a range of RCFs that represent 'consensus', 'wettest' and 'driest' scenarios to model the impacts of multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our initial spatial analysis revealed that 42% of the ash-type eucalypt forests in the Thomson Catchment have been logged. Under historical and continued logging, stream runoff decreases by 40,211 ML by 2090 compared with a hypothetical baseline if logging had ceased in 1995 and 34,059 ML if logging continues beyond 2019. These losses exceed the projected impacts of climate change under the consensus and wettest scenarios, but the driest scenarios are projected to exceed these losses, consisting of 49,998 ML and 69,474 ML for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. We suggest logging be excluded from the Thomson Catchment because of decreasing stream flows due to climate change and an increasing water demand due to human population growth. This study provides a quantitative approach for highlighting how resource conflicts can be magnified under climate change.

Putting biodiversity into the national accounts: Creating a new paradigm for economic decisions

Economics has long taken precedence over the environment in both governmental and business decision making, with the System of National Accounts and the indicator GDP coming to represent much that is wrong with the current environmental conditions. Increasing recognition of the environmental damage human activity causes and that human well-being depends on biodiversity and ecosystems means that new systems to measure and sustainably manage the world are needed. Integrating the environment into national accounts has been suggested as a way to improve information but so far impact on decision making is limited. This outlook needs to change. Using examples from Australia and Botswana, we show how integrating information on biodiversity, resource use and the economy via accounting can help create a new decision-making paradigm and enable a new policy framing with spending on biodiversity conservation and sustainability seen as an investment, not a cost.

Genomic reconstruction of 100 000-year grassland history in a forested country: population dynamics of specialist forbs

Grassland ecosystems worldwide have been extensively converted to other land uses and are globally imperiled. Because many grasslands have been maintained by human activities, understanding their origin and history is fundamentally important to better contemporary management. However, existing methods to reconstruct past vegetation can produce contrasting views on grassland history. Here, we inferred demographic histories of 40 populations of four grassland forb species throughout Japan using high-resolution genome sequences and model-flexible demographic simulation based on the site frequency spectrum. Although two species showed a slight decline in population size between 100 000–10 000 years ago, our results suggest that population sizes of studied species have been maintained within the range of 0.5–2.0 times the most recent estimates for at least 100 000 years across Japan. Our results suggest that greater than 90% declines in Japanese grasslands and subsequent losses of grassland species in the last 100 years are geologically and biologically important and will have substantial consequences for Japanese biota and culture. People have had critical roles in maintaining disturbance-dependent grassland ecosystems and biota in this warm and wet forested country. In these contexts, disturbances associated with forest harvesting and traditional extensive farming have the potential to maintain grassland ecosystems and can provide important opportunities to reconcile resource production and conservation of grassland biodiversity.

Patch-scale culls of an overabundant bird defeated by immediate recolonization

Overabundant native animals cause a variety of human-wildlife conflicts that can require management to reduce their social, environmental, or economic impacts. Culling is an intuitively attractive management response to overabundance, but poor monitoring of results and costs means that evidence for successful outcomes is often lacking. Furthermore, many culls worldwide have been ineffective or counterproductive due to ecological release mechanisms or compensatory responses by the overabundant species. We completed a controlled, replicated, costed, and rigorously monitored experimental cull of the endemic Australian honeyeater, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala). Aggressive exclusion of birds from remnant woodland patches by overabundant Noisy Miners is listed as a Key Threatening Process under Australian conservation legislation due to its impacts on threatened birds. The problem is particularly prevalent in the highly modified agricultural landscapes of eastern Australia. The species impacts avian assemblages at low densities (0.6-0.8 birds/ha) and at a subcontinental scale (>1 million km² ). Some ecologists recommend culling as the only management response capable of timely reversal of declines of threatened small woodland birds. We monitored Noisy Miner abundance before and for 12 months after a culling program and found that immediate recolonization from the surrounding landscape negated the impact of the cull. We hypothesize that this is due to a vacuum effect; whereby, birds resident in more marginal habitat around treatment patches move into the vacant territory post-cull. Modeled mean abundance of Noisy Miners declined by 22% in treatment sites compared to an increase of 4% in control sites in the post-cull period. Abundance in all sites, however, remained three to five times higher than published ecological impact thresholds. Return on investment analysis indicated no relationship between culling effort and reduction in Noisy Miner abundance. We conclude that culling at a patch scale is not an efficient method of reducing Noisy Miner abundance to levels unlikely to impact threatened woodland birds in the highly modified study landscape, despite estimated costs 18 times lower than another potential management response of revegetation. Our study highlights the importance of building empirical evidence before intuitively attractive but not necessarily ecologically effective management responses are applied more widely.

Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001-2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

Genesis, goals and achievements of Long-Term Ecological Research at the global scale: A critical review of ILTER and future directions

Since its founding in 1993 the International Long-term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) has gone through pronounced development phases. The current network comprises 44 active member LTER networks representing 700 LTER Sites and ~80 LTSER Platforms across all continents, active in the fields of ecosystem, critical zone and socio-ecological research. The critical challenges and most important achievements of the initial phase have now become state-of-the-art in networking for excellent science. At the same time increasing integration, accelerating technology, networking of resources and a strong pull for more socially relevant scientific information have been modifying the mission and goals of ILTER. This article provides a critical review of ILTER's mission, goals, development and impacts. Major characteristics, tools, services, partnerships and selected examples of relative strengths relevant for advancing ILTER are presented. We elaborate on the tradeoffs between the needs of the scientific community and stakeholder expectations. The embedding of ILTER in an increasingly collaborative landscape of global environmental observation and ecological research networks and infrastructures is also reflected by developments of pioneering regional and national LTER networks such as SAEON in South Africa, CERN/CEOBEX in China, TERN in Australia or eLTER RI in Europe. The primary role of ILTER is currently seen as a mechanism to investigate ecosystem structure, function, and services in response to a wide range of environmental forcings using long-term, place-based research. We suggest four main fields of activities and advancements for the next decade through development/delivery of a: (1) Global multi-disciplinary community of researchers and research institutes; (2) Strategic global framework and strong partnerships in ecosystem observation and research; (3) Global Research Infrastructure (GRI); and (4) a scientific knowledge factory for societally relevant information on sustainable use of natural resources.

Using ideal distributions of the time since habitat was disturbed to build metrics for evaluating landscape condition

Developing a standardized approach to measuring the state of biodiversity in landscapes undergoing disturbance is crucial for evaluating and comparing change across different systems, assessing ecosystem vulnerability and the impacts of destructive activities, and helping direct species recovery actions. Existing ecosystem metrics of condition fail to acknowledge that a particular community could be in multiple states, and the distribution of states could worsen or improve when impacted by a disturbance process, depending on how far the current landscape distribution of states diverges from pre-anthropogenic impact baseline conditions. We propose a way of rapidly assessing regional-scale condition in ecosystems where the distribution of age classes representing increasing time since last disturbance is suspected to have diverged from an ideal benchmark reference distribution. We develop two metrics that (1) compare the observed mean time since last disturbance with an expected mean and (2) quantify the summed shortfall of vegetation age-class frequencies relative to a reference age-class distribution of time since last disturbance. We demonstrate the condition metrics using two case studies: (1) fire in threatened southwestern Australian proteaceaous mallee-heath and (2) impacts of disturbance (fire and logging) in the critically endangered southeastern Australian mountain ash Eucalyptus regnans forest on the yellow-bellied glider Petaurus australis. We explore the effects of uncertainty in benchmark time since last disturbance, and evaluate metric sensitivity using simulated age-class distributions representing alternative ecosystems. By accounting for and penalizing too-frequent and too-rare disturbances, the summed shortfall metric is more sensitive to change than mean time since last disturbance. We find that mountain ash forest is in much poorer condition (summed shortfall 38.5 out of 100 for a 120-yr benchmark disturbance interval) than indicated merely by loss of extent (84% of vegetation remaining). Proteaceaous mallee-heath is in worse condition than indicated by loss of extent for an upper benchmark interval of 80 yr, but condition almost doubles for the minimum tolerable time since last disturbance interval of 20 yr. To fully describe ecosystem degradation, we recommend that our summed shortfall metric, focused on habitat quality and informed by biologically meaningful baselines, be added to existing condition measures focused on vegetation extent. This will improve evaluation of change in ecosystem states and enhance management of ecosystems in poor condition.

Countering resistance to protected-area extension

The establishment of protected areas is a critical strategy for conserving biodiversity. Key policy directives like the Aichi targets seek to expand protected areas to 17% of Earth's land surface, with calls by some conservation biologists for much more. However, in places such as the United States, Germany, and Australia, attempts to increase protected areas are meeting strong resistance from communities, industry groups, and governments. We examined case studies of such resistance in Victoria, Australia, Bavaria, Germany, and Florida, United States. We considered 4 ways to tackle this problem. First, broaden the case for protected areas beyond nature conservation to include economic, human health, and other benefits, and translate these into a persuasive business case for protected areas. Second, better communicate the conservation values of protected areas. This should include highlighting how many species, communities, and ecosystems have been conserved by protected areas and the counterfactual (i.e., what would have been lost without protected area establishment). Third, consider zoning of activities to ensure the maintenance of effective management. Finally, remind citizens to think about conservation when they vote, including holding politicians accountable for their environmental promises. Without tackling resistance to expanding the protected estate, it will be impossible to reach conservation targets, and this will undermine attempts to stem the global extinction crisis.

Managing military training-related environmental disturbance

Military Training Areas (MTAs) cover at least 2 percent of the Earth's terrestrial surface and occur in all major biomes. These areas are potentially important for biodiversity conservation. The greatest challenge in managing MTAs is balancing the disturbance associated with military training and environmental values. These challenges are unique as no other land use is managed for these types of anthropogenic disturbances in a natural setting. We investigated how military training-related disturbance is best managed on MTAs. Specifically, we explored management options to maximise the amount of military training that can be undertaken on a MTA while minimising the amount of environmental disturbance. MTAs comprise of a number of ranges designed to facilitate different types of military training. We simulated military training-related environmental disturbance at different range usage rates under a typical range rotation use strategy, and compared the results to estimated ecosystem recovery rates from training activities. We found that even at relatively low simulated usage rates, random allocation and random spatial use of training ranges within an MTA resulted in environmental degradation under realistic ecological recovery rates. To avoid large scale environmental degradation, we developed a decision-making tool that details the best method for managing training-related disturbance by determining how training activities can be allocated to training ranges.

Evaluating complementary networks of restoration plantings for landscape-scale occurrence of temporally dynamic species

Multibillion dollar investments in land restoration make it critical that conservation goals are achieved cost-effectively. Approaches developed for systematic conservation planning offer opportunities to evaluate landscape-scale, temporally dynamic biodiversity outcomes from restoration and improve on traditional approaches that focus on the most species-rich plantings. We investigated whether it is possible to apply a complementarity-based approach to evaluate the extent to which an existing network of restoration plantings meets representation targets. Using a case study of woodland birds of conservation concern in southeastern Australia, we compared complementarity-based selections of plantings based on temporally dynamic species occurrences with selections based on static species occurrences and selections based on ranking plantings by species richness. The dynamic complementarity approach, which incorporated species occurrences over 5 years, resulted in higher species occurrences and proportion of targets met compared with the static complementarity approach, in which species occurrences were taken at a single point in time. For equivalent cost, the dynamic complementarity approach also always resulted in higher average minimum percent occurrence of species maintained through time and a higher proportion of the bird community meeting representation targets compared with the species-richness approach. Plantings selected under the complementarity approaches represented the full range of planting attributes, whereas those selected under the species-richness approach were larger in size. Our results suggest that future restoration policy should not attempt to achieve all conservation goals within individual plantings, but should instead capitalize on restoration opportunities as they arise to achieve collective value of multiple plantings across the landscape. Networks of restoration plantings with complementary attributes of age, size, vegetation structure, and landscape context lead to considerably better outcomes than conventional restoration objectives of site-scale species richness and are crucial for allocating restoration investment wisely to reach desired conservation goals.

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat-mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics-information that is lacking in most threat-management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird-population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch-colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat-mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.