Sudan virus disease outbreak in Uganda: urgent research gaps

The Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) outbreak highlights our ongoing vulnerability to re-emerging high-consequence infectious diseases. Although the Minister of health in Uganda has initiated public health measures in collaboration with neighbouring countries and with support of the WHO, cases have continued to spread to several regions including the capital. The ongoing transmission, uncertain case numbers and no licensed vaccine or therapeutics available are a cause for concern. We searched four databases for SUDV research using the search terms "SUDV", "Sudan Virus" and "Ebola Sudan". Our analysis identified only 20 SUDV research studies. Most were implemented in the USA and only one in Uganda. Nine studies were on therapeutics, eight on vaccines, one on diagnostics, one in one health and one in social science. Our data highlight a lack of SUDV research and an urgent need for investment to identify an effective vaccine, and optimal supportive care and therapeutic strategies for all at risk groups as a key research priority. Research investments should be prioritised into vaccines and treatment strategies that will be accessible to high-risk populations in affected regions during the outbreak, to protect populations, improve individual outcomes and facilitate outbreak control.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Planned, ongoing and completed tuberculosis treatment trials in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa: a 2019 cross-sectional descriptive analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a deadly challenge globally and Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are among the countries with the highest TB burden. The objective of this study is to identify and describe ongoing, planned and completed TB trials conducted in the BRICS countries registered in WHO-International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (WHO-ICTRP); to report selective outcome reporting by comparing primary outcomes in published trials with their prespecified outcomes in registry records and to evaluate the time to publication.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We searched the WHO-ICTRP portal (20 January 2019) and the Russian Federation Registry (30 March 2019) to identify TB trials conducted in BRICS countries. We included only registered clinical trials conducted wholly in BRICS countries or with at least one recruitment centre in one of the BRICS countries that were investigating TB treatment.

RESULTS

The search of the WHO-ICTRP yielded 408 trials and additional 32 trials were identified from the Russian registry. Of those, 253 were included in the analysis. We found that 77 trials were multicountry trials, followed by trials in China (55), India (53), South Africa (34), Russia (23) and Brazil (11). 163 trials were registered prospectively, 69 retrospectively and 21 trials had no registration status. Most trials (207) evaluated TB treatment, followed by 29 behaviour change interventions, 13 nutritional supplementation, 4 surgical treatment and 2 assessing rehabilitation. Based on ICJME recommendation of publishing 12 months after completion of trial, we found that 156 trials were completed 12 or more months by date and 101 trials had publications. Thirty-one of the 101 trials with publication had evidence of selective outcome reporting. The median time to publication was 25 months (IQR 15-37) from the time of anticipated end date stated in the registry.

CONCLUSION

TB trials conducted in BRICS countries are collaborative, mostly drug treatment oriented, potentially affecting policies. Selective outcome reporting remains a problem both for prospectively and retrospectively registered trials, only small fraction of which gets to publication.

Practices and trends in clinical trial registration in the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR): a descriptive analysis of registration data

BACKGROUND

The Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR) is a WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform primary register, which caters for clinical trials conducted in Africa. PACTR is the first and, at present, the only member of the Network of WHO Primary Registers in Africa. The aim is to describe and report on the trends of trial records registered in PACTR.

METHODS

PACTR was established in 2007 as the AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Clinical Trials Registry. The scope of the registry was then expanded in 2009 to include all diseases. This is a cross-sectional study of trials registered in PACTR from inception to 18 August 2021. A descriptive analysis of the use and trends of the following data fields: study intervention, disease condition, sex of the participants, sample size, ethics, funding and availability of results was conducted using Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

The number of trials registered has increased year on year, reaching 606 trials registered in 2020. The total number of trials registered at the time of the analysis was 2998. More than half of the trials in the registry (1655 of 2998, ie, 55%) were prospectively registered. Ethical approval was received by 90% (2691 of 2998) of the registered trials. Factorial assignment as an intervention model was in 20% (589 of 2998) of the trials registered. There were 36% (1083 of 2998) completed trials, of which 3% (94 of 1083) had results available in the registry. The most dominant funding source indicated was self-funding in 23% (693 of 2998) of the registered trials, and 55% (1639 of 2998) had no funding.

CONCLUSION

Registration on PACTR continues to grow; however, our analysis shows that researchers' capacity-building is needed to understand the importance of the registry and how this information informs healthcare decisions. Promoting prospective trial registration remains critical to avoid selective reporting bias to inform research gaps.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance.

RESULTS

Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Taking stock of global immunisation coverage progress: the gains, the losses and the journey ahead

Despite the enormous benefits of vaccination, global immunisation coverage progress has stalled and remains suboptimal in many countries. In this commentary, we review the recently published update of the World Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund Estimates of National Immunization Coverage. We highlight trends in which, despite substantial gains made in improving immunisation coverage at the global level, there remain numerous challenges with reaching and sustaining optimal coverage. We contextualise the trends by exploring plausible supply- and demand-side root causes. Based on these, we stress the need for targeted, context-appropriate strategies for reaching and maintaining optimal immunisation coverage.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Convalescent plasma or hyperimmune immunoglobulin for people with COVID-19

Convalescent plasma is being considered as a potential therapy for COVID-19. We highlight and contextualise the findings of a recent Cochrane rapid review that evaluated the effectiveness and safety of convalescent plasma or hyperimmune immunoglobulin transfusion in the treatment of people with COVID-19. The review found low-certainty evidence of the therapeutic effectiveness and safety of convalescent plasma. As the novel coronavirus continues to spread in South Africa (SA), convalescent plasma may offer a therapeutic ray of hope for mitigating the morbidity and mortality burdens of the disease. Further investigation of the clinical benefits of the therapy in well-designed studies is needed to provide more evidence that will guide COVID-19 treatment decision-making in the SA context.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Contextualised strategies to increase childhood and adolescent vaccination coverage in South Africa: a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the unparalleled success of immunisation in the control of vaccine preventable diseases, immunisation coverage in South Africa remains suboptimal. While many evidence-based interventions have successfully improved vaccination coverage in other countries, they are not necessarily appropriate to the immunisation needs, barriers and facilitators of South Africa. The aim of this research is to investigate barriers and facilitators to optimal vaccination uptake, and develop contextualised strategies and implementation plans to increase childhood and adolescent vaccination coverage in South Africa.

METHODS

The study will employ a mixed-methods research design. It will be conducted over three iterative phases and use the Adopt, Contextualise or Adapt (ACA) model as an overarching conceptual framework. Phase 1 will identify, and develop a sampling frame of, immunisation stakeholders involved in the design, planning and implementation of childhood and human papillomavirus immunisation programmes in South Africa. Phase 2 will identify the main barriers and facilitators to, and solutions for, increasing vaccination coverage. This phase will comprise exploratory qualitative research with stakeholders and a review of existing systematic reviews on interventions for improving vaccination coverage. Using the findings from Phase 2 and the ACA model, Phase 3 will develop a set of proposed interventions and implementation action plans for improving immunisation coverage in South Africa. These plans will be discussed, revised and finalised through a series of participatory stakeholder workshops and an online questionnaire, conducted as part of Phase 3.

ETHICS

Ethical approval was obtained from the South African Medical Research Council (EC018-11/2018). No risks to participants are expected. Various steps will be taken to ensure the anonymity and confidentiality of participants.

DISSEMINATION

The study findings will be shared at stakeholder workshops, the website of Cochrane South Africa and academic publications and conferences.

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

BACKGROUND

As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations.

RESULTS

The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%.

CONCLUSIONS

Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Systematic review protocol on Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) revaccination and protection against tuberculosis

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.TB) and other species of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Globally, TB is ranked as the ninth leading cause of death and the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. The bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine has been used globally since 1921 for the prevention of TB in humans, and was derived from an attenuated strain of Mycobacterium bovis. Evidence from previous randomised trials show that the efficacy of primary BCG vaccination against pulmonary TB ranged from no protection to very high protection. In addition, some studies suggest a benefit of BCG revaccination. For example, a recent trial conducted in South Africa showed that BCG revaccination of adolescents could reduce the risk of TB infection by half. However, we are not aware of any recent systematic reviews of the effects of BCG revaccination. Thus, the need for this systematic review of the effects of BCG revaccination on protection against TB infection and disease.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

We will search PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and reference lists of relevant publications for potentially eligible studies. We will screen search outputs, select eligible studies, extract data and assess risk of bias in duplicate. Discrepancies will be resolved by discussion and consensus or arbitration. We will use the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method to assess the certainty of the evidence. The planned systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) in August 2018.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Publicly available data will be used, hence no formal ethical approval will be required for this review. The findings of the review will be disseminated through conference presentations and publication in an open-access peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018105916.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Effects of vaccines in protecting against Ebola virus disease: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Ebola virus disease is one of the most devastating infectious diseases in the world with up to 90% case fatality observed. There are at least 13 candidate vaccines developed and being tested to prevent the occurrence of the Ebola virus disease. While none of these candidate vaccines has received regulatory approval for use, one candidate vaccine (rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP) has been granted access for emergency use. Two other candidate vaccines (GamEvac-Combi and Ad5-EBOV) have been licensed for emergency use in their countries of origin. The objective of this systematic review is to summarise the effects of the Ebola candidate vaccines in humans.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search for potentially eligible studies, with no language or date restrictions, in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, Scopus, the WHO International Clinical Trial Registry Platform, and reference lists of relevant publications. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effect (DARE) will be searched for related reviews. Two review authors will independently screen search records, assess study eligibility, perform data extraction, and assess the risk of bias; and reconcile their findings. We will pool data from similar studies using Mantel-Haenszel's fixed-effect model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study is exempted from ethical consideration since the data collected are publicly available and at no point will confidential information from human participants be used. We will disseminate our results through publications in peer-reviewed journals and relevant conferences.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018110505.

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of fractional dose compared with standard dose inactivated polio vaccination in children

INTRODUCTION

WHO recommends the introduction of at least one single dose of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunisation schedules. Thus, there has been an increased demand and concurrent supply shortages of IPV worldwide. One of the strategies to improve access is the use of fractional instead of full doses of IPV. We aim to compare the effects of fractional with standard doses of IPV.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will include randomised trials, non-randomised trials, case-control studies and cohort studies that compared fractional with full doses of IPV among children aged 5 years or younger. We will search for eligible studies among published and grey literature. Two authors will independently screen the results of the search, select studies, extract data and assess risk of bias. We will stratify analyses by study design, type of poliovirus, type of outcome measure and number of IPV doses given. For each type of poliovirus, we will pool the outcome data from studies using random-effects meta-analyses. Statistical heterogeneity will be assessed using the χ² test of homogeneity and quantified using the I² statistic. To investigate statistical heterogeneity, subgroup analyses will be performed based on the timing of the first fractional dose, age of administration, immunisation schedules and country income status. Sensitivity analyses will be used to assess if the effect of IPV fractional dosing is affected by study design, risk of bias and methods of meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained approval from the University of Cape Town Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC REF: 412/2018). The findings of this review will provide evidence for decision-making with regards to IPV dosage, eventually improving access to the vaccine by stretching vaccine supplies. The results will be published in the University of Cape Town online library and in a peer reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018092647.

Evaluation of influenza surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Influenza infrastructure systems are crucial for maintaining surveillance operations, and for mitigating and responding to the disease. The role of surveillance is to isolate and identify as rapidly as possible any new influenza strains and collate this information for the preparedness for, and response to, an impending influenza activity in humans. However, sources of surveillance information, particularly in Africa, are meagre. This systematic review will critically evaluate the existing influenza surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

We will build multiple electronic database search strategies for use in PubMed, Scopus, African Journal Online, Web of Science and Google scholar to identify as many studies as possible. The medical subject heading and keywords will include a wide range of synonyms, both in index terms and free-text words. Database search will be followed by hand searching of reference lists of all relevant studies. We will include eligible full-text studies published from 2002 in order to coincide with the establishment of the integrated disease surveillance and response system in Africa by WHO. We will examine the influenza surveillance performance systems using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on evaluating public health surveillance systems. Our outcome measures will include surveillance system attributes such as timeliness, sensitivity, specificity, acceptability, representativeness, simplicity and usefulness. We will conduct a narrative synthesis of all studies.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study does not require ethics approval because it uses publicly available data. Our findings will be published in a peer review journal and disseminated to policy makers.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018103042.