What is the evidence that advertising policies could have an impact on gambling-related harms? A systematic umbrella review of the literature

OBJECTIVE

To summarise the evidence on the impacts of gambling-related advertising that could lead to gambling-related harm, including impacts on vulnerable individuals and inequalities in the distribution of harms.

STUDY DESIGN

An umbrella review of studies investigating the impact of gambling advertising.

METHODS

A review was undertaken of systematic reviews of qualitative, quantitative and mixed method studies reporting outcomes associated with gambling advertising and marketing. The search strategy included database searches (Web of Science, PsycInfo) and website searches. The quality of the included reviews was determined using A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2.

RESULTS

1024 papers were identified by database searches. Eight systematic reviews, including 74 unique studies, met inclusion criteria. Included studies, using quantitative and qualitative methods, consistently support the existence of a causal relationship between exposure to advertising of gambling products/brands and more positive attitudes to gambling, greater intentions to gamble and increased gambling activity at both individual and population level. There is evidence of a 'dose-response' effect; greater advertising exposure increases participation which leads to a greater risk of harm. There was more evidence for the impact on children and young people and for those already at risk from current gambling activity with those most vulnerable more likely to be influenced.

CONCLUSION

Gambling advertising restrictions could reduce overall harm and mitigate the impact of advertising on gambling-related inequalities. Public health harm prevention strategies should include policies which limit exposure to advertising, particularly among children and vulnerable groups.

Learning from the challenges of undertaking an evaluation of a multi-partner housing support initiative delivered within a hospital setting

Objectives

We present learning from a mixed-methods evaluation of a housing support initiative for hospital inpatients.

Study design

A mixed-methods process evaluation.

Methods

A social housing provider delivered a housing support service in two hospitals (mental health unit and general hospital). Healthcare providers, the social housing provider and academic researchers designed and undertook a co-produced, mixed-methods process evaluation of the intervention. The evaluation included questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, analysis of routinely collected data and economic analysis. Despite commitment from the partners, the evaluation faced challenges. We reflect on the lessons learnt within our discussion paper.

Results

Despite the commitment of the partners, we faced several challenges.

We took an iterative approach to the design and processes of the evaluation to respond to arising challenges. Recruitment of service-users was more difficult than anticipated, requiring additional staff resources. Given the small-scale nature of the intervention, and the quality of data recorded in hospital records, the planned economic analysis was not feasible. Positive factors facilitating evaluation included involvement of staff delivering the intervention, as well as managers. Being able to offer payment to partner organisations for staff time also facilitated ongoing engagement.

Conclusions

Multi-partner evaluations are useful, however, researchers and partners need to be prepared to take an iterative, resource intensive approach. Both availability and quality of routine data, and the resources required to support data collection, may limit feasibility of specific methods when evaluating small-scale cross-sector initiatives. Thus, this necessitates a flexible approach to design and analysis.

Exploring young people's perspectives of inequalities in health: a qualitative study

Background

Reducing inequalities in health is an enduring global public health challenge. Worryingly in England, inequalities across some groups and places are worsening, highlighted and exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. While there has been growing interest in exploring public understandings of health inequalities, few studies have explored the views of young people. Our study seeks to redress this by exploring young people's perspectives of inequalities in health.

Methods

Working with existing youth organisations, we recruited young people (aged 13-21) from six youth groups in areas of high deprivation across three geographical locations in England. Each group took part in three interlinked focus groups (n = 18), the majority of which were run online using video conferencing platforms. Focus groups were co-delivered with partnering youth organisations during 2021. They involved participatory concept mapping activities, and the discussion of health related news articles.

Results

Key themes emerged around young people's perspectives of: i) factors influencing health within their local area; ii) understandings of inequalities in health; and iii) key messages to convey to those with a role in addressing health inequalities at a place level.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the importance of exploring and understanding young people's perspectives of inequalities in order to better shape policies which are supported by the communities and people they impact.

Key messages

Young people have a nuanced, experiential understanding of key factors influencing their health and inequalities in health within their local areas. Building upon young people’s understandings of inequalities in health provides opportunities to mobilise support for policies seeking to change the distribution of key social determinants.

The price of precision: trade-offs between usability and validity in the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool for walking and cycling

OBJECTIVES

The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. This article attempts to assess the effect of incorporating 'life-years' as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model and assess the effect on the tool's usability.

STUDY DESIGN

This article is a methods paper, using simulation to estimate the effect of a methodological change to the HEAT 4.2 physical activity module.

METHODS

We use the widely used WHO HEAT for walking and cycling as a case study. HEAT currently quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. We assess the effect of incorporating "duration of life gained" as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model without substantially affecting usability or increasing data requirements.

RESULTS

Compared with the existing tool (HEAT version 4.2), which values premature deaths avoided, estimates derived by valuing life-years gained are more sensitive to the age of the population affected by an intervention, with results for older and younger age groups being markedly different between the two methods. This is likely to improve the precision of the tool, especially where it is applied to interventions that affect age groups differentially. The life-years method requires additional background data (obtained and used in this analysis) and minimal additional user inputs; however, this may also make the tool harder to explain to users.

CONCLUSIONS

Methodological improvements in the precision of widely used tools, such as the HEAT, may also inadvertently reduce their practical usability. It is therefore important to consider the overall impact on the tool's value to stakeholders and explore ways of mitigating potential reductions in usability.

Multiple deprivation and geographic distance to community physical activity events - achieving equitable access to parkrun in England

Objectives

To evaluate geographic access to free weekly outdoor physical activity events (‘parkrun’) in England, with a particular focus on deprived communities, and to identify optimal locations for future events to further maximise access.

Study design

This study is a cross-sectional ecological analysis of the socio-economic disparities in geographic access to parkrun events in England in late 2018.

Methods

We combined geolocation data on all English Lower Layer Super Output Areas and parkrun events to calculate geodesic distances to the nearest event for more than 32,000 communities in England. We use this measure of geographic access to summarise the relationship between access and socio-economic deprivation, measured using the index of multiple deprivation. We then used geographic coordinates of public green spaces in England to conduct a simple location-allocation analysis to identify 200 locations for future event locations that would maximise access.

Results

In England, 69% of the population live within 5 km of one of the 465 parkrun events. There is a small negative correlation between distance and deprivation, indicating that access is slightly better in more socio-economically deprived areas. Setting up an additional 200 events in optimal locations would improve access: the average distance to the nearest parkrun event would improve by 1.22 km, from 4.65 km to 3.43 km, and approximately 82% of the English population would live within 5 km of a parkrun event.

Conclusion

Over two-thirds of the English population live within 5 km of a parkrun event, and contrary to our expectation, we find that geographic access is slightly better for those living in more deprived communities. Creating additional events may improve geographic access, but effective strategies will still be needed to increase engagement in new and existing events by those living in socio-economically deprived areas.

•

Parkrun in a grass-roots movement that organises free weekly 5 km running and walking events.

•

In England, the median distance to the nearest parkrun event was 3.4 km; 69% of the population lived within 5 km of an event.

•

Access showed no negative socio-economic gradient. In fact, people in deprived communities had better geographic access.

•

Sport England provided funding to set up 200 new events. We identified optimal locations, to further maximise public access.

Who has access and who participates in parkrun? - implications for selecting future event locations

Background

parkrun is an international organisation which hosts free, weekly volunteer-led, running events. More than 300,000 people participate across 21 countries each week. The present study investigates how access to, and participation in, parkrun events varies across England. We go on to make policy recommendations for new parkrun event locations, in order to maximise geographical access and participation whilst taking account of the impact on inequalities.

Methods

We combined location data of census areas, parkrun events and public parks in England. For the census areas, access was defined as the distance of the area’s centroid to the nearest parkrun event, and parkrun UK provided information on 2018 participation rates per area. Linear regression was used to investigate the effect of deprivation on access, and the effect of deprivation and access on utilisation. We propose a flexible algorithm for identifying optimal new parkrun event locations and provide two sample sets of recommendations.

Results

The median distance to the nearest parkrun event was 3.4 km, but the distribution was heavily skewed: for approximately 10% of the population, the nearest event was more than 10 km away.

Despite statistical significance, the relationship between deprivation and access was very weak. However, access and deprivation had a considerable effect on participation: less deprived areas, and areas with good access had higher participation rates. The best locations for new events are contingent on what parkrun aims to maximise. We demonstrate that optimal locations for maximising equitable geographic access differ from locations for maximising participation.

Conclusions

Access to parkrun is generally good and is similar across socioeconomic groups, but participation is markedly higher in less deprived areas. Our algorithm can be used by parkrun to further improve access for deprived communities. However, better access alone is unlikely to reduce inequities in participation.

Key messages

In England, access to parkrun is generally good, and our algorithm can be used to further optimise it. However, better access alone is unlikely significantly increase participation from deprived areas.

Alcohol consumption after health deterioration in older adults: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVE

To examine if and how older adults modify their drinking after health deterioration, and the factors that motivate changing or maintaining stable drinking behaviour.

STUDY DESIGN

Explanatory follow-up mixed-methods research.

METHODS

The association between health deterioration and changes in alcohol consumption was examined using secondary data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a biennial prospective cohort study of a random sample of adults aged 50 years and older living in England. Data were collected through a personal interview and self-completion questionnaire across three waves between 2004 and 2009. The sample size (response rate) across the three waves was 8781 (49.9%), 7168 (40.3%) and 6623 (37.3%). The Chi-squared test was used to examine associations between diagnosis with a long-term condition or a worsening of self-rated health (e.g. from good to fair or fair to poor) and changes in drinking frequency (e.g. everyday, 5-6 days per week, etc.) and volume (ethanol consumed on a drinking day) between successive waves. In-depth interviews with 19 older adults recently diagnosed with a long-term condition were used to explore the factors that influenced change or maintenance in alcohol consumption over time. A purposive sampling strategy was used to recruit a diverse sample of current and former drinkers from voluntary and community organizations in the north of England. An inductive approach was used to analyze the data, facilitating the development of an a posteriori framework for understanding drinking change.

RESULTS

There was no significant relationship between health deterioration and changes in drinking volume over time. There was however a significant association between health deterioration and changes in drinking frequency between successive waves (χ² = 15.24, P < 0.001 and χ² = 17.28, P < 0.001). For example, of participants reporting health deterioration between the first two waves, 47.6% had stable drinking frequency, 23.4% increased their drinking frequency and 29% reported decreased drinking frequency. In comparison, of participants reporting no health deterioration, 52.7% reported stable frequency, 20.8% increased frequency and 26.4% decreased frequency. In qualitative interviews, older adults described a wide range of factors that influence changes in drinking behaviour: knowledge gained from talking to healthcare professionals, online and in the media; tangible negative experiences that were attributed to drinking; mood and emotions (e.g. joy); the cost of alcohol; pub closures; and changes in social roles and activities. Health was just one part of a complex mix of factors that influenced drinking among older adults.

CONCLUSION

Patterns of drinking change after health deterioration in older adults are diverse, including stable, increasing and decreasing alcohol consumption over time. Although health motivations to change drinking influence behaviour in some older adults, social and financial motivations to drink are also important in later life and thus a holistic approach is required to influence behaviour.

Promoting and maintaining physical activity in the transition to retirement: a systematic review of interventions for adults around retirement age

It has been argued that transition points in life, such as the approach towards, and early years of retirement present key opportunities for interventions to improve the health of the population. Research has also highlighted inequalities in health status in the retired population and in response to interventions which should be addressed. We aimed to conduct a systematic review to synthesise international evidence on the types and effectiveness of interventions to increase physical activity among people around the time of retirement. A systematic review of literature was carried out between February 2014 and April 2015. Searches were not limited by language or location, but were restricted by date to studies published from 1990 onwards. Methods for identification of relevant studies included electronic database searching, reference list checking, and citation searching. Systematic search of the literature identified 104 papers which described study populations as being older adults. However, we found only one paper which specifically referred to their participants as being around the time of retirement. The intervention approaches for older adults encompassed: training of health care professionals; counselling and advice giving; group sessions; individual training sessions; in-home exercise programmes; in-home computer-delivered programmes; in-home telephone support; in-home diet and exercise programmes; and community-wide initiatives. The majority of papers reported some intervention effect, with evidence of positive outcomes for all types of programmes. A wide range of different measures were used to evaluate effectiveness, many were self-reported and few studies included evaluation of sedentary time. While the retirement transition is considered a significant point of life change, little research has been conducted to assess whether physical activity interventions at this time may be effective in promoting or maintaining activity, or reducing health inequalities. We were unable to find any evidence that the transition to retirement period was, or was not a significant point for intervention. Studies in older adults more generally indicated that a range of interventions might be effective for people around retirement age.

Is there a relationship between surgical case volume and mortality in congenital heart disease services? A rapid evidence review

OBJECTIVE

To identify and synthesise the evidence on the relationship between surgical volume and patient outcomes for adults and children with congenital heart disease.

DESIGN

Evidence synthesis of interventional and observational studies.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and Web of Science (2009-2014) and citation searching, reference lists and recommendations from stakeholders (2003-2014) were used to identify evidence.

STUDY SELECTION

Quantitative observational and interventional studies with information on volume of surgical procedures and patient outcomes were included.

RESULTS

31 of the 34 papers identified (91.2%) included only paediatric patients. 25 (73.5%) investigated the relationship between volume and mortality, 7 (20.6%) mortality and other outcomes and 2 (5.9%) non-mortality outcomes only. 88.2% were from the US, 97% were multicentre studies and all were retrospective observational studies. 20 studies (58.8%) included all congenital heart disease conditions and 14 (41.2%) single conditions or procedures. No UK studies were identified. Most studies showed a relationship between volume and outcome but this relationship was not consistent. The relationship was stronger for single complex conditions or procedures. We found limited evidence about the impact of volume on non-mortality outcomes. A mixed picture emerged revealing a range of factors, in addition to volume, that influence outcome including condition severity, individual centre and surgeon effects and clinical advances over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The heterogeneity of findings from observational studies suggests that, while a relationship between volume and outcome exists, this is unlikely to be a simple, independent and directly causal relationship. The effect of volume on outcome relative to the effect of other, as yet undetermined, health system factors remains a complex and unresolved research question.

Community-based dietary and physical activity interventions in low socioeconomic groups in the UK: a mixed methods systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes and changes in diet and physical activity can prevent diabetes. We assessed the effectiveness and acceptability of community-based dietary and physical activity interventions among low-SES groups in the UK.

METHOD

We searched relevant databases and web resources from 1990 to November 2009 to identify relevant published and grey literature using an iterative approach, focusing on UK studies.

RESULTS

Thirty-five relevant papers (nine quantitative, 23 qualitative and three mixed methods studies) were data extracted, quality assessed and synthesised using narrative synthesis and thematic analysis. The relationship between interventions and barriers and facilitators was also examined. Dietary/nutritional, food retail, physical activity and multi-component interventions demonstrated mixed effectiveness. Qualitative studies indicated a range of barriers and facilitators, which spanned pragmatic, social and psychological issues. The more effective interventions used a range of techniques to address some surface-level psychological and pragmatic concerns, however many deeper-level social, psychological and pragmatic concerns were not addressed.

CONCLUSION

Evidence on the effectiveness of community-based dietary and physical activity interventions is inconclusive. A range of barriers and facilitators exist, some of which were addressed by interventions but some of which require consideration in future research.

Can diabetes prevention programmes be translated effectively into real-world settings and still deliver improved outcomes? A synthesis of evidence

OBJECTIVE

Randomized trials provide evidence that intensive lifestyle interventions leading to dietary and physical activity change can delay or prevent Type 2 diabetes. Translational studies have assessed the impact of interventions based on, but less intensive than, trial protocols delivered in community settings with high-risk populations. The aim of this review was to synthesize evidence from translational studies of any design to assess the impact of interventions delivered outside large randomized trials.

METHODS

Medical and scientific databases were searched using specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies were included that used a tested diabetes preventive study protocol with an adult population at risk from Type 2 diabetes. Included papers were quality assessed and data extracted using recommended methods.

RESULTS

From an initial 793 papers, 19 papers reporting 17 studies were included. Translational studies from a range of settings utilized a variety of methods. All were based on the US Diabetes Prevention Programme protocol or the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study, with modifications that increased feasibility and access. The main outcome that was reported in all studies was weight change. Weight loss, which occurred in all but one study, was greater in intervention arms than in control subjects. No consistent differences were found in blood glucose or waist circumference.

CONCLUSIONS

Translational studies based on the intensive diabetes prevention programmes showed that there is potential for less intensive interventions both to be feasible and to have an impact on future progression to diabetes in at-risk individuals.

Trends in the incidence of visual impairment certification secondary to diabetic retinopathy in the Leeds metropolitan area, 2005-2010

AIM

This study reports the incidence of visual impairment certification due to diabetic retinopathy in Leeds between 2008 and 2010 and makes a comparison with data from 2005, immediately before the introduction of a comprehensive screening service.

METHODS

The primary causes of visual impairment certification between 2008 and 2010 were collected and reviewed. Mid-year population estimates and a diabetes prevalence model were used to determine the incidence of certification secondary to diabetic retinopathy.

RESULTS

Diabetic retinopathy was the primary cause of visual impairment certification in 33 of 446 (7.4%) certificates in 2008, 34 of 410 (8.3%) certificates in 2009 and 24 of 392 (6.1%) in 2010. For the total population in 2008, 2009 and 2010, the combined incidence of either sight impairment or severe sight impairment due to diabetic retinopathy was 42.3, 43.2 and 30 per million per year, respectively. For the population with diagnosed diabetes mellitus, the combined incidence of either sight impairment or severe sight impairment secondary to diabetic retinopathy was 1227, 1192 and 796 per million per year, respectively. For each year, the incidence of visual impairment was lower than the corresponding figure for 2005.

CONCLUSION

Following the introduction of a comprehensive retinal screening service, the incidence of visual impairment certification secondary to diabetic retinopathy in the Leeds Metropolitan area appears to be decreasing. However, a multifaceted approach, addressing all the avoidable risk factors, may be required to maintain this trend in view of the increasing prevalence of Type 2 diabetes.

The effectiveness of training and support for carers and other professionals on the physical and emotional health and well-being of looked-after children and young people: a systematic review

Looked-after children and young people (LACYP) are recognized as a high-risk group for behavioural and emotional problems, and additional specialist training for foster carers may reduce such problems. This systematic review aimed to identify and synthesize evidence on the effectiveness of additional training and support provided to approved carers, professionals and volunteers on the physical and emotional health and well-being of LACYP (including problem behaviours and placement stability). Searches of health and social science databases were conducted and records were screened for inclusion criteria. Citation and reference list searches were conducted on included studies. Included studies were synthesized and critically appraised. Six studies were included (five randomized controlled trials and one prospective cohort study), all of which focused on foster carers. Three studies reported a benefit of training and three reported no benefit but no detriment. Those reporting a benefit of training were conducted in the USA, and had longer-duration training, shorter follow-up assessment and recruited carers of younger children than studies that reported no benefit of training, which were conducted in the UK. Whether the difference in results is due to the type of training or to cultural or population differences is unclear. The findings suggest a mixed effect of training for foster carers on problem behaviours of LACYP. The evidence identified appears to suggest that longer-duration training programmes have a beneficial effect on the behaviour problems of LACYP, although future research should examine the impact of training durations and intensity on short-medium and longer-term outcomes of LACYP of different ages. Only training and support for foster carers was identified.

Social deprivation and prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the UK: workload implications for primary care

BACKGROUND

The 'inverse care law' suggests that populations with the poorest health outcomes also tend to have poorer access to high-quality care. The new general practitioner (GP) contract in the UK aimed to reduce variations in care between areas by collecting information on processes and outcomes of chronic disease management. This study investigated whether, despite reductions in inequalities, primary care in deprived areas is still at a disadvantage due to the higher prevalence of chronic diseases, using chronic kidney disease (CKD) as an example.

METHODS

Initially, data from a hospital-based cohort of CKD patients were analysed to investigate the clustering of CKD patients across area-level deprivation using a geographical information system that employed kernel density estimation. Data from the Quality and Outcomes Framework were then analysed to explore the burden of CKD and associated non-communicable chronic diseases (NCD) and assess the potential impact on GPs' workload by area-level deprivation.

RESULTS

There was a significant clustering of CKD patients referred to the hospital in the most deprived areas. Both the prevalence of CKD and associated conditions and caseload per GP were significantly higher in deprived areas.

CONCLUSION

In the most deprived areas, there is an increased burden of major chronic disease and a higher caseload for clinicians. These reflect significant differences in workload for practices in deprived areas, which needs to be addressed.

Association of deprivation with worse outcomes in chronic kidney disease: findings from a hospital-based cohort in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence and complications are known to be associated with deprivation, but there is limited understanding of the underlying reasons for inequalities.

AIMS

To evaluate the association of both individual and area level socioeconomic status (SES) with heavy proteinuria at presentation, progression of CKD, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 918 CKD patients using integral multivariate logistic regression to adjust for known clinical and demographic explanatory variables.

RESULTS

During 3 years of median follow-up, 34% of the study population had progression of their CKD and of these, 32% experienced rapid progression. 23% presented with heavy proteinuria (urine protein:creatinine ratio ≥300 mg/mmol), 4% developed ESRD requiring renal replacement therapy and 10% died. Area level deprivation was independently associated with heavy proteinuria, progression and rapid progression of CKD. People living in the most deprived areas were more likely to develop ESRD. Unskilled professionals were more likely to experience a higher mortality rate.

CONCLUSION

Area level SES is inversely associated with both heavy proteinuria on presentation and progression as well as rapid progression of CKD. In contrast, individual level SES, unskilled professionals found to have a marginally significant association with increased risk of mortality. People living in more deprived areas presenting with CKD are likely to be at increased risk of poor outcomes and may need more active management and earlier referral.

Supporting the transition of looked-after young people to independent living: a systematic review of interventions and adult outcomes

This systematic review aimed to synthesize evidence on the effectiveness of transition support services (TSSs) that are delivered towards the end of care for looked-after young people (LAYP) on their adult outcomes, including education, employment, substance misuse, criminal and offending behaviour, parenthood, housing and homelessness and health. Searches of health, social science and social care bibliographic databases were conducted and records were screened for relevance. Citation and reference list searches were conducted on included studies. Relevant studies were synthesized and critically appraised. Seven studies were identified (five retrospective and two prospective cohort studies), six of which were conducted in the USA and one in the UK. Overall, LAYP who received TSSs were more likely to complete compulsory education with formal qualifications, be in current employment, be living independently and less likely to be young parents. There was no reported effect of the impact of TSSs on crime or mental health, and mixed findings for homelessness. The range of TSS components investigated and reported varied considerably within and between studies, with limited evidence of long-term outcomes. The literature reviewed offers no reliable conclusions on the effectiveness of TSSs at this time due to variations in research quality and because few formal evaluations of existing TSSs have been conducted, resulting in mixed evidence in terms of positive, negative and neutral impact on outcomes. Further high-quality, robust research to evaluate the effectiveness of TSSs on adult outcomes for young people in the short, medium and longer term is needed to address the health inequalities experienced by this small but vulnerable group and to inform decision making about service provision.

Factors associated with outcomes for looked-after children and young people: a correlates review of the literature

In 2008, the Department of Health made a referral to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and the Social Care Institute for Excellence to develop joint public health guidance on improving the physical and emotional health and well-being of children and young people looked after by the local authority/state. To help inform the decision-making process by identifying potential research questions pertinent to the outcomes of looked-after children and young people (LACYP), a correlates review was undertaken. Iterative searches of health and social science databases were undertaken; searches of reference lists and citation searches were conducted and all included studies were critically appraised. The correlates review is a mapping review conducted using systematic and transparent methodology. Interventions and factors that are associated (or correlated) with outcomes for LACYP were identified and presented as conceptual maps. This review maps the breadth (rather than depth) of the evidence and represents an attempt to use the existing evidence base to map associations between potential risk factors, protective factors, interventions and outcomes for LACYP. Ninety-two studies were included: four systematic reviews, five non-systematic reviews, eight randomized controlled trials, 66 cohort studies and nine cross-sectional studies. The conceptual maps provide an overview of the key relationships addressed in the current literature, in particular, placement stability and emotional and behavioural factors in mediating outcomes. From the maps, there appear to be some key factors that are associated with a range of outcomes, in particular, number of placements, behavioural problems and age at first placement. Placement stability seems to be a key mediator of directional associations. The correlates review identified key areas where sufficient evidence to conduct a systematic review might exist. These were: transition support, training and support for carers and access to services.

The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010-2030

AIM

To provide robust estimates of the total prevalence of diabetes (including undiagnosed) in England to support effective planning and delivery of services.

METHODS

Age- and sex-specific prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes in people aged 16 years and older [based on HbA(1c) of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or greater] were taken from the Health Survey for England 2006. Data from the Health Survey for England 2004 were used to adjust for ethnic difference in prevalence. A deprivation adjustment refined the geographical distribution of diabetes prevalence. Projected diabetes prevalence was calculated using trends in overweight and obesity prevalence from the Health Surveys for England 2003 to 2008.

RESULTS

In 2010 there were an estimated 3.1 million (7.4%) people aged 16 years and older with diabetes in England. Comparisons between the 2008/2009 Quality and Outcomes Framework data and estimates for 2009 suggest that that 27.1% of the total number of people with diabetes are not included on general practice diabetes registers. The total number of adults with diabetes is projected to rise to 4.6 million or 9.5% by 2030. Approximately half of this increase is attributable to the changing age and ethnic group structure of the population and half is because of the rising prevalence of obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

This model estimates that the prevalence of total diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in England is higher than previously suggested. An ageing population and increasing prevalence of obesity imply that the prevalence of diabetes will continue to rise and health services should be planned accordingly.

Barriers and facilitators to implementing screening and brief intervention for alcohol misuse: a systematic review of qualitative evidence

BACKGROUND

This review aimed to synthesize qualitative evidence for barriers and facilitators to effective implementation of screening and brief intervention for alcohol misuse in adults and children over 10 years.

METHODS

A search of medical and social science databases was carried out and augmented by hand-searching of reference lists and contents of key journals. Qualitative evidence was synthesized thematically.

RESULTS

A total of 47 papers varying in design and quality were included in the review. Most evaluated implementation in primary care settings. Implementation was reported to be limited by lack of resources, training and support from management, as well as workload. The appropriateness of context in which discussions take place was reported as an acceptability factor for patients and practitioners. Health professionals require sufficient knowledge about alcohol guidelines and risk in order to implement screening and intervention to those most in need.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst brief screening and brief intervention have been shown to be effective in some settings, this review has identified a number of barriers and facilitators to implementation. Adequate resources, training and the identification of those at risk without stereotyping are the main facilitators in primary care. More research is needed to assess implementation in other settings.

Synthesizing diverse evidence: the use of primary qualitative data analysis methods and logic models in public health reviews

OBJECTIVES

The nature of public health evidence presents challenges for conventional systematic review processes, with increasing recognition of the need to include a broader range of work including observational studies and qualitative research, yet with methods to combine diverse sources remaining underdeveloped. The objective of this paper is to report the application of a new approach for review of evidence in the public health sphere. The method enables a diverse range of evidence types to be synthesized in order to examine potential relationships between a public health environment and outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

The study drew on previous work by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence on conceptual frameworks. It applied and further extended this work to the synthesis of evidence relating to one particular public health area: the enhancement of employee mental well-being in the workplace.

METHODS

The approach utilized thematic analysis techniques from primary research, together with conceptual modelling, to explore potential relationships between factors and outcomes.

RESULTS

The method enabled a logic framework to be built from a diverse document set that illustrates how elements and associations between elements may impact on the well-being of employees.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst recognizing potential criticisms of the approach, it is suggested that logic models can be a useful way of examining the complexity of relationships between factors and outcomes in public health, and of highlighting potential areas for interventions and further research. The use of techniques from primary qualitative research may also be helpful in synthesizing diverse document types.

Evaluating the impact of a national pilot screening programme for type 2 diabetes in deprived areas of England

BACKGROUND

A pilot programme designed to systematically screen for type 2 diabetes was introduced in 24 general practices in England selected for their high levels of socio-economic deprivation and multi-ethnic populations.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of screening on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A prospective audit of screening activity in pilot practices and comparison of the change in prevalence of diabetes in pilot and comparison practices were conducted.

RESULTS

Of 41,400 individuals invited for screening from a population of 165,828 in pilot practices, 25,356 (61%) were screened. Three hundred and fifty-eight (0.22%) new cases of diabetes were detected among those screened. Only 69% of those with a positive screening test had diagnostic testing recorded and only 19% had a record of an oral glucose tolerance test. The absolute increase in the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was 0.53% in pilot practices and 0.42% in comparison practices.

CONCLUSIONS

The 'real world' nature of the programme and dependence on routine data collection systems makes results more difficult to interpret but also enabled problems with implementation, not evident from previous research, to be identified. It is likely that the low diagnostic yield was largely due to a high level of ad hoc screening activity outside the pilot protocol and inadequate access to diagnostic testing after a positive screening test. In particular, implementation of screening for diabetes in primary care should not be undertaken without robust assessment of the resources required for diagnostic testing and follow-up and adequate clinical audit.

A review and critique of modelling in prioritising and designing screening programmes

OBJECTIVES

To undertake a structured review and critical appraisal of methods for the model-based cost-utility analysis of screening programmes. Also to develop guidelines and an assessment checklist of good practice in the development of screening models.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases of healthcare and operational research literatures were searched up to June 2003.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches of the literature were undertaken to identify applied and methodological studies of economic evaluations of healthcare screening programmes. All applied screening models were also reviewed in three broad disease areas (cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes), as well as antenatal screening. A second-level review focused on particular aspects of the modelling process through case study assessments of screening models for three specific disease areas (colorectal cancer, abdominal aortic aneurysms and antenatal screening for haemoglobinopathies). A separate literature review of studies reporting the utility effects of screening was also undertaken. Guidelines and an assessment checklist for good practice for screening modelling were developed.

RESULTS

Few relevant methodological studies were identified, and no studies reporting direct empirical comparisons of alternative methodologies were retrieved. From the review of disease-based screening models, it was apparent that many alternative modelling methods had been applied, including some relatively new approaches that had not been widely disseminated. Natural history modelling is the preferred approach. Alternative modelling approaches were generally only used to extrapolate the observed effects of screening and were unsuitable for evaluating unobserved screening options. More complex model structures may incorporate important additional aspects of the disease natural history, although any benefits should outweigh the consequences of additional unobservable input parameters and increased complexity in implementing the model. No direct comparisons of more detailed and less detailed screening model structures informed areas in which more realistic representations of the disease process may be most beneficial, so only general aspects of good practice could be defined. Two structural aspects that were not well handled by existing screening models included post-diagnosis disease progression and screening uptake. Most models described the former using historical mortality rates, rather than treatment models that are representative of current treatment patterns for different stages of the disease. Constant screening uptake rates were applied to all screening programmes and attendance was not linked to disease incidence or progression. Evidence exists to inform a more detailed representation of screening uptake. The most commonly applied modelling techniques were cohort Markov models and individual sampling simulation models. Individual sampling simulation models may provide more flexibility in their representation of a screening decision problem, but any benefits should outweigh the consequences of the need to assess both variability and uncertainty. Complex mathematical models describing input parameters as continuous variables have analysed the cost-effectiveness of screening; these require further development to estimate the cost-utility of screening directly, or to inform a more detailed representation of the preclinical section of a natural history model (with a traditional state-based model describing pathways' post-clinical presentation). Calibration is a common aspect of screening models, whereby models are fitted to observed data describing outputs of the model in order to populate unobserved input parameters. The review concluded that the estimation of a reference case input parameter set is not recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

The review of methods for the model-based cost-utility analysis of screening programmes identified the natural history modelling approach as the preferred general method of evaluation for screening programmes. State transition models have generally been used to represent disease natural histories, with individual sampling models more prevalent than in treatment intervention evaluations. No comparative methodological studies were identified, so no empirical data were available to inform the relative merits of alternative methodologies. The defined guidelines and assessment checklist are informed, therefore, by theoretical interpretations of the impact of alternative approaches to different components of the modelling process when applied to the cost-utility analysis of screening programmes. Further research is needed into methods with the potential to improve the accuracy of screening models, and to respond to the needs of model users.

Screening for type 2 diabetes: literature review and economic modelling

OBJECTIVES

To reconsider the aims of screening for undiagnosed diabetes, and whether screening should be for other abnormalities of glucose metabolism such as impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or the 'metabolic syndrome'. Also to update the previous review for the National Screening Committee (NSC) on screening for diabetes, including reviewing choice of screening test; to consider what measures would be taken if IGT and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were identified by screening, and in particular to examine evidence on treatment to prevent progression to diabetes in these groups; to examine the cost-effectiveness of screening; and to consider groups at higher risk at which screening might be targeted.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to the end of June 2005.

REVIEW METHODS

Literature searches and review concentrated on evidence published since the last review of screening, both reviews and primary studies. The review of economic studies included only those models that covered screening. The new modelling extended an existing diabetes treatment model by developing a screening module. The NSC has a set of criteria, which it applies to new screening proposals. These criteria cover the condition, the screening test or tests, treatment and the screening programme. Screening for diabetes was considered using these criteria.

RESULTS

Detection of lesser degrees of glucose intolerance such as IGT is worthwhile, partly because the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be reduced by treatment aimed at reducing cholesterol level and blood pressure, and partly because some diabetes can be prevented. Several trials have shown that both lifestyle measures and pharmacological treatment can reduce the proportion of people with IGT who would otherwise develop diabetes. Screening could be two-stage, starting with the selection of people at higher risk. The second-stage choice of test for blood glucose remains a problem, as in the last review for NSC. The best test is the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), but it is the most expensive, is inconvenient and has weak reproducibility. Fasting plasma glucose would miss people with IGT. Glycated haemoglobin does not require fasting, and may be the best compromise. It may be that more people would be tested and diagnosed if the more convenient test was used, rather than the OGTT. Five economic studies assessed the costs and short-term outcomes of using different screening tests. None examined the long-term impact of different proportions of false negatives. All considered the costs that would be incurred and the numbers identified by different tests, or different cut-offs. Results differed depending on different assumptions. They did not give a clear guide as to which test would be the best in any UK screening programme, but all recognised that the choice of cut-off would be a compromise between sensitivity and specificity; there is no perfect test. The modelling exercise concluded that screening for diabetes appears to be cost-effective for the 40-70-year age band, more so for the older age bands, but even in the 40-49-year age group, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for screening versus no screening is only 10,216 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening is more cost-effective for people in the hypertensive and obese subgroups and the costs of screening are offset in many groups by lower future treatment costs. The cost-effectiveness of screening is determined as much by, if not more than, assumptions about the degree of control of blood glucose and future treatment protocols than by assumptions relating to the screening programme. The very low cost now of statins is also an important factor. Although the prevalence of diabetes increases with age, the relative risk of CVD falls, reducing the benefits of screening. Screening for diabetes meets most of the NSC criteria, but probably fails on three: criterion 12, on optimisation of existing management of the condition; criterion 13, which requires that there should be evidence from high-quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) showing that a screening programme would reduce mortality or morbidity; and criterion 18, that there should be adequate staffing and facilities for all aspects of the programme. It is uncertain whether criterion 19, that all other options, including prevention, should have been considered, is met. The issue here is whether all methods of improving lifestyles in order to reduce obesity and increase exercise have been sufficiently tried. The rise in overweight and obesity suggests that health promotion interventions have not so far been effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The case for screening for undiagnosed diabetes is probably somewhat stronger than it was at the last review, because of the greater options for reduction of CVD, principally through the use of statins, and because of the rising prevalence of obesity and hence type 2 diabetes. However, there is also a good case for screening for IGT, with the aim of preventing some future diabetes and reducing CVD. Further research is needed into the duration of undiagnosed diabetes, and whether the rise in blood glucose levels is linear throughout or whether there may be a slower initial phase followed by an acceleration around the time of clinical diagnosis. This has implications for the interval after which screening would be repeated. Further research is also needed into the natural history of IGT, and in particular what determines progression to diabetes. An RCT of the type required by NSC criterion 13 is under way but will not report for about 7 years.

How do parents' child-feeding behaviours influence child weight? Implications for childhood obesity policy

BACKGROUND

Parents have some responsibility for children's dietary habits and they are often the focus of public health interventions designed to improve children's diets and thereby reduce the prevalence of childhood obesity. The current UK interventions promote awareness of healthy food choices, but offer little guidance for parents on child-feeding behaviours.

METHODS

A review of recent literature regarding child-feeding behaviours and child weight.

RESULTS

Parents report using a wide range of child-feeding behaviours, including monitoring, pressure to eat and restriction. Restriction of children's eating has most frequently and consistently been associated with child weight gain. Furthermore, there is substantial evidence for a causal relationship between parental restriction and childhood overweight.

CONCLUSIONS

Parents may inadvertently promote excess weight gain in childhood by using inappropriate child-feeding behaviours. We recommend the development of interventions to increase awareness of the possible consequences of inappropriate child-feeding behaviours. Parents who are concerned about their child's weight will also require guidance and support in order to adopt more appropriate child-feeding behaviours.

Physical activity and health: evidence from a study of deprived communities in England

This study aims to explore the relationship between physical activity levels and the self-reported health status of residents living in deprived communities in England. A cross-sectional interview survey was conducted in communities in receipt of funding from the New Deal for Communities (NDC) regeneration programme. A sample of 848 addresses was selected by random sampling from within each of the 39 NDC areas, and one adult from each household was selected for interview. A total of 19 574 residents were interviewed between July and October 2002. The main outcome measures were physical activity level and health status assessed using four self-reported health measures: health in the last 12 months, health change in the last 12 months, long-standing illness or disability and a mental health-related quality-of-life score. There are large regional and demographic variations in respect of NDC residents' physical activity levels. The areas with the lowest levels of physical activity are mainly located in northern industrial towns. Residents who did little or no physical activity were more than twice as likely to feel that their health was not good (adjusted OR 2.54, 95% CI 2.35-2.75).

The incidence of visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy in Leeds

AIM

A key aim of the photographic screening model for diabetic retinopathy advocated by the National Screening Committee is a reduction in new blindness due to diabetic retinopathy within 5 years. This study determines the incidence of visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy in Leeds in 2002 and provides a benchmark against which the success of the retinopathy screening programme in Leeds will be judged.

METHODS

A retrospective review of all blind and partially sighted registrations for 2002 was conducted. The 2001 Census data and the diabetes prevalence model developed by the Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory were used to determine the total and diabetic populations of Leeds.

RESULTS

Diabetic retinopathy was the primary cause of registration in 24 of the 398 completed records obtained; seven patients were registered blind and 17 partially sighted. For the total population in 2002, the incidence of blind and partially sighted registration due to diabetic retinopathy was 10 per million and 24 per million per year, respectively. For the diabetic population of Leeds in 2002, the incidence of blind and partial sighted registration due to diabetic retinopathy was 337 and 817 per million per year, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of blind registration due to diabetic retinopathy in Leeds in 2002 is similar to the estimate provided by the National Screening Committee but higher than the figure from other UK centres.

Diabetes prevalence in England, 2001--estimates from an epidemiological model

AIMS

To estimate the total prevalence of diabetes mellitus (diagnosed and undiagnosed) at national, regional and local level in England to support health-care planning and delivery.

METHODS

An epidemiological model was constructed by applying age-sex-ethnic-specific reference prevalence rates from epidemiological studies to resident populations (2001 census) of England at national, regional, and local authority/Primary Care Trust levels.

RESULTS

Estimated prevalence of total diabetes for all persons in England was 4.41% in 2001, equating to 2 168 000 persons. Type 2 diabetes was estimated to affect 2 002 000 persons (92.3%) and Type 1 diabetes 166 000 persons (7.7%). Diabetes prevalence was estimated to be higher in women (5.17%) than men (3.61%). People from ethnic minority groups had higher crude prevalence than White Europeans (4.29, 5.69, 6.63 and 2.13% among White Europeans, Black African/Caribbeans, South Asians and 'other' groups, respectively). Prevalence increased sharply with age (0.33, 3.37 and 13.92%, respectively, in those aged 0-29, 30-59 and 60+ years). The model allows use of user-defined population denominator estimates to derive numbers and prevalence of people with diabetes for a given local population group, such as at ward or general practice level.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported diabetes prevalence estimates from community surveys underestimate the true burden of diabetes. The model can be used to derive the expected total prevalence of diabetes in health areas that lack reliable data to facilitate the implementation of the National Service Framework for diabetes. It will also allow estimates of future diabetes prevalence to be derived, and can potentially be used for prevalence estimates in all of the UK.

Telling people about screening programmes and screening test results: how can we do it better?

To make an informed choice about whether to be screened, people need information that allows them to weigh up the benefits and harms of screening. To understand their screening test results they require even more information. Yet currently, people attending a screening programme or considering a screening test may only be told that the test can detect disease or risk factors for disease, and that early intervention improves outcomes. When given their test results, people are generally only told the test was abnormal ("positive") or normal ("negative"). We believe that information given before and after the screening test can, and should, be improved. This will probably require information that includes both the benefits and harms of screening and is probabilistic. Indeed, we believe the traditional dichotomisation of screening test results into positive and negative is problematic, and could be replaced by standard use of risks or probabilistic data before and after screening. The relevant risk data could be explained in a range of ways, for example, quantitatively, qualitatively, and/or by "anchoring" to everyday experiences. In this paper we explore why dichotomisation of screening test results is problematic and look at the adverse consequences of presenting test results in terms of true and false, positive and negative. We present some ideas on alternative ways of providing information on screening programmes and screening test results. Our aim is to stimulate debate about these issues and to provide some starting points which could be further developed and evaluated in a wide range of screening programmes.

Collation and comparison of multi-practice audit data: prevalence and treatment of known diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Different methods have been used to determine the prevalence and treatment of diabetes. Despite the large number of studies, previous estimations of prevalence and treatment have been carried out on relatively small numbers of patients, and then in only a few practices in single geographical regions.

AIM

To investigate the feasibility of collating data from multi-practice audits organized by primary care audit groups in order to estimate the prevalence and treatment of patients with known diabetes, and to discuss the methodological issues and reasons for variation.

METHOD

A postal questionnaire survey of all primary care audit groups in England and Wales that had conducted a multi-practice audit of diabetes between 1993-1995. Prevalence rates and patterns of diabetic care were compared with other community-based surveys of known diabetes from 1986-1996 identified on MEDLINE.

RESULTS

Twenty-five (43%) audit groups supplied data from multi-practice audits of diabetes. Seven (28%) multi-practice audits involving 259 practices fulfilled the inclusion criteria for prevalence estimation. The overall prevalence of diabetes based on a population of 1,475,512 patients was 1.46% (range between audit groups = 1.18% to 1.66%; chi 2 = 308; df = 6; P < 0.0001). Male to female ratio was 1.15:1. Treatment of diabetes could be ascertained for 10 (40%) audit groups comprising 319 practices. Of these, 23.4% (range = 16.5%-27.4%) were controlled by diet, 48.5% (range = 43.6%-55.8%) were prescribed oral hypoglycaemic drugs, and 28.2% (range = 25.0%-32.4%) were treated with insulin. There were significant variations between audit groups in treatment pattern (chi 2 = 250; df = 18; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Prevalence and treatment rates of diabetes and other chronic diseases can be assessed and compared using data from multi-practice audits. Collation of audit data could improve the precision of quantitative estimates of health status in populations. A standard method of data recording and collection may provide a new approach that could considerably improve our ability to monitor disease and its management.

The pregnant smoker: a preliminary investigation of the social and psychological influences

BACKGROUND

Smoking during pregnancy is an important challenge to public health. An understanding of the psychological and sociological bases of maternal smoking is essential to the development of effective smoking cessation interventions. The aim of this study was to explore the psychosocial factors that underpin maternal smoking.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 200 antenatal attenders at Leicester Royal Infirmary, NHS Trust, UK.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine per cent were smokers, 22 per cent ex-smokers and 49 per cent were never smokers. Around half of the ex-smokers (49 per cent) had reportedly given up smoking during their current pregnancy. Around a third (29.5 per cent) of the ex-smokers had experienced previous problems associated with maternal smoking, including spontaneous abortion, cot death and premature birth. Of the current smokers, 69 per cent claimed that they would like to give up smoking; indeed, 59 per cent had tried to stop smoking. Emotional factors were important in maintaining smoking for two-thirds of the smokers. Significantly more of the smokers (75 per cent) had partners who smoked compared with the never-smoking women (30 per cent; p < 0.001). There was no difference in the level of knowledge about the dangers of maternal smoking between smokers, ex-smokers and never smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant smokers are as aware of the health risks as non-smokers. Effective intervention strategies need to focus not only on the pregnant woman's smoking status but also offer help to partners, close family members and friends. Interventions need to address the social and psychological factors that maintain maternal smoking.

Insulin treated diabetes mellitus: causes of death determined from record linkage of population based registers in Leicestershire, UK

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Analyses of causes of mortality in people with diabetes using data form death certificates mentioning diabetes provide unreliable estimates of mortality. Under-recording of diabetes as a cause on death certificates has been widely reported, ranging from 15-60%. Using a population based register on people with diabetes and linking data from another source is a viable alternative. Data from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) are the most acceptable mortality data available for such an exercise, as direct comparison with other published mortality rates is then possible.

DESIGN

A locally maintained population-based mortality register and all insulin-treated diabetes mellitus cases notified to the Leicestershire diabetes register (n = 4680) were linked using record linkage software developed in-house (Lynx). This software has been extensively used in a maintenance and update cycle designed to maximise accuracy and minimise duplication and false registration on the diabetes register. Deaths identified were initially coded locally to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD9), and later a linkage was performed to use official OPCS coding. Mortality data identified by the linkage was indirectly standardised using population data for Leicestershire for 1991. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were estimated, with 95% confidence intervals. Insulin dependent diabetes (IDDM) was defined as diabetes diagnosed before age 30 years with insulin therapy begun within one year of diagnosis. All other types were considered non-insulin dependent diabetes (NIDDM). Analyses were performed for the whole sample and then for the NIDDM subgroup. Results from these analyses were similar and therefore only whole group analyses are presented.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 370 deaths were identified for the period of 1990-92 inclusive - 56% were in men and 44% in women, median age (range) 71 years (12-94). Approximately 90% of deaths were subjects with NIDDM. Diabetes was mentioned on 215 (58%) death certificates. The all causes SMRs were significantly raised for men and women for all ages less than 75 years. Ischaemic heart disease (ICD9) rubrics 410-414) accounted for 146 (40%) deaths - 41% of male and 38% of female deaths. Male and female SMRs were significantly raised for the age groups 45-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years. Cerebrovascular disease (ICD9 rubrics 430-438) accounted for 39 (10%) deaths and the SMR for women the external causes of death (ICD9 rubrics E800-E999) were also significantly raised overall and in age groups 15-44 and 45-64 years. This was not true for men, although numbers of deaths in this category were small for both men (4) and women (9).

CONCLUSION

Record linkage has been used successfully to link two local, population based registers. This has enabled an analysis of mortality in people with diabetes to be performed which overcomes the problems associated with using as a sample, death certificates where diabetes is mentioned. The mortality rates and SMRs estimated should more accurately reflect the true rates than would be possible using other methods. The persisting excess mortality identified for people with diabetes is of a similar magnitude and attributable to similar causes as has been reported elsewhere in population based studies.