FlowUTI: An interactive web-application for optimizing the use of flow cytometry as a screening tool in urinary tract infections

Due to the high prevalence of patients attending with urinary tract infection (UTI) symptoms, the use of flow-cytometry as a rapid screening tool to avoid unnecessary cultures is becoming a widely used system in clinical practice. However, the recommended cut-points applied in flow-cytometry systems differ substantially among authors, making it difficult to obtain reliable conclusions. Here, we present FlowUTI, a shiny web-application created to establish optimal cut-off values in flow-cytometry for different UTI markers, such as bacterial or leukocyte counts, in urine from patients with UTI symptoms. This application provides a user-friendly graphical interface to perform robust statistical analysis without a specific training. Two datasets are analyzed in this manuscript: one composed of 204 urine samples from neonates and infants (≤3 months old) attended in the emergency department with suspected UTI; and the second dataset including 1174 urines samples from an elderly population attended at the primary care level. The source code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/GuillermoMG-HUVR/Microbiology-applications/tree/FlowUTI/FlowUTI). The web application can be executed locally from the R console. Alternatively, it can be freely accessed at https://covidiario.shinyapps.io/flowuti/. FlowUTI provides an easy-to-use environment for evaluating the efficiency of the urinary screening process with flow-cytometry, reducing the computational burden associated with this kind of analysis.

Hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk in the EPIC-EurGast study

Hepcidin is the main regulator of iron homeostasis and dysregulation of proteins involved in iron metabolism has been associated with tumorogenesis. However, to date, no epidemiological study has researched the association between hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk. To further investigate the relationship between hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study (EURGAST) within the multicentric European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. The study included 456 primary incident gastric adenocarcinoma cases and 900 matched controls that occurred during an average of 11 years of follow-up. We measured serum levels of hepcidin-25, iron, ferritin, transferrin and C-reactive protein. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of gastric cancer by hepcidin levels were estimated from multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Mediation effect of the ferritin levels on the hepcidin-gastric cancer pathway was also evaluated. After adjusting for relevant confounders, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between gastric cancer and hepcidin levels (OR 5 ng/l = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-0.99). No differences were found by tumor localization or histological type. In mediation analysis, we found that the direct effect of hepcidin only represents a nonsignificant 38% (95% CI: -69%, 91%). In summary, these data suggest that the inverse association of hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk was mostly accounted by ferritin levels. Further investigation including repeated measures of hepcidin is needed to clarify their role in gastric carcinogenesis.

Blood Metabolic Signatures of Body Mass Index: A Targeted Metabolomics Study in the EPIC Cohort

Metabolomics is now widely used to characterize metabolic phenotypes associated with lifestyle risk factors such as obesity. The objective of the present study was to explore the associations of body mass index (BMI) with 145 metabolites measured in blood samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolites were measured in blood from 392 men from the Oxford (UK) cohort (EPIC-Oxford) and in 327 control subjects who were part of a nested case-control study on hepatobiliary carcinomas (EPIC-Hepatobiliary). Measured metabolites included amino acids, acylcarnitines, hexoses, biogenic amines, phosphatidylcholines, and sphingomyelins. Linear regression models controlled for potential confounders and multiple testing were run to evaluate the associations of metabolite concentrations with BMI. 40 and 45 individual metabolites showed significant differences according to BMI variations, in the EPIC-Oxford and EPIC-Hepatobiliary subcohorts, respectively. Twenty two individual metabolites (kynurenine, one sphingomyelin, glutamate and 19 phosphatidylcholines) were associated with BMI in both subcohorts. The present findings provide additional knowledge on blood metabolic signatures of BMI in European adults, which may help identify mechanisms mediating the relationship of BMI with obesity-related diseases.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers: results from the EPIC cohort

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination.

A method for sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of measurement error in multiple exposure variables using external validation data

BACKGROUND

Measurement error in self-reported dietary intakes is known to bias the association between dietary intake and a health outcome of interest such as risk of a disease. The association can be distorted further by mismeasured confounders, leading to invalid results and conclusions. It is, however, difficult to adjust for the bias in the association when there is no internal validation data.

METHODS

We proposed a method to adjust for the bias in the diet-disease association (hereafter, association), due to measurement error in dietary intake and a mismeasured confounder, when there is no internal validation data. The method combines prior information on the validity of the self-report instrument with the observed data to adjust for the bias in the association. We compared the proposed method with the method that ignores the confounder effect, and with the method that ignores measurement errors completely. We assessed the sensitivity of the estimates to various magnitudes of measurement error, error correlations and uncertainty in the literature-reported validation data. We applied the methods to fruits and vegetables (FV) intakes, cigarette smoking (confounder) and all-cause mortality data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

RESULTS

Using the proposed method resulted in about four times increase in the strength of association between FV intake and mortality. For weakly correlated errors, measurement error in the confounder minimally affected the hazard ratio estimate for FV intake. The effect was more pronounced for strong error correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method permits sensitivity analysis on measurement error structures and accounts for uncertainties in the reported validity coefficients. The method is useful in assessing the direction and quantifying the magnitude of bias in the association due to measurement errors in the confounders.

Circulating Osteopontin and Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in a Large European Population

We previously identified osteopontin (OPN) as a promising marker for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we investigated the association between prediagnostic circulating OPN levels and HCC incidence in a large population-based cohort. A nested case-control study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. During a mean follow-up of 4.8 years, 100 HCC cases were identified. Each case was matched to two controls and OPN levels were measured in baseline plasma samples. Viral hepatitis, liver function, and α-fetoprotein (AFP) tests were also conducted. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate multivariable odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for OPN levels in relation to HCC. Receiver operating characteristics curves were constructed to determine the discriminatory accuracy of OPN alone or in combination with other liver biomarkers in the prediction of HCC. OPN levels were positively associated with HCC risk (per 10% increment, ORmultivariable = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14-1.48). The association was stronger among cases diagnosed within 2 years of follow-up. Adding liver function tests to OPN improved the discriminatory performance for subjects who developed HCC (AUC = 0.86). For cases diagnosed within 2 years, the combination of OPN and AFP was best able to predict HCC risk (AUC = 0.88). The best predictive model for HCC in this low-risk population is OPN in combination with liver function tests. Within 2 years of diagnosis, the combination of OPN and AFP best predicted HCC development, suggesting that measuring OPN and AFP could identify high-risk groups independently of a liver disease diagnosis. Cancer Prev Res; 9(9); 758-65. ©2016 AACR.

Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

[Factors associated with prehospital delay in men and women with acute coronary syndrome]

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with prehospital delay in people who have had an acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS

Using a survey we studied patients admitted due to acute coronary syndrome in the 33 Andalusian public hospitals, obtaining information about different types of variables: socio-demographic, contextual,clinical, perception, action, and transportation.Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to calculate the odds ratios for the delay.

RESULTS

Of the 1,416 patients studied, more than half had a delay of more than an hour. This is associated to distance to the hospital and means of transport: when the event occurs in the same city,using the patient's own means of transport increases the delay, odds ratio = 1.51 (1.02 to 2.23); if the distance is 1 to 25 kilometers from the hospital,there is no difference between the patient's own means of transport and an ambulance, odds ratio =1.41 and odds ratio =1.43 respectively; and when the distance exceeds 25 kilometers transport by ambulance means more delay, odds ratio = 3.13 and odds ratio = 2.20 respectively. Also, typical symptoms reduce delay amongst men but increase amongst women. Also, not caring and waiting for the resolution of symptoms, seeking health care other than a hospital or emergency services, previous clinical history, being away from home, and having an income under 1,500 euros, all increase delay. Respiratory symptoms reduce delay.

CONCLUSIONS

Prehospital delay times do not meet health recommendations. The physical and social environment,in addition to clinical, perceptual and attitudinal factors, are associated with this delay.

Association of Multiple Biomarkers of Iron Metabolism and Type 2 Diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct Study

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigated associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population.

RESULTS

Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01-1.12] and 1.12 [1.05-1.19] per 100 μg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00-1.24] and 1.22 [1.12-1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjustment for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. <45%) was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women (0.68 [0.54-0.86]) but was not statistically significantly associated in men (0.90 [0.75-1.08]). Serum iron was not associated with T2D. The association of ferritin with T2D was stronger among leaner individuals (Pinteraction < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D.

An epidemiological model for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in Europe

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71% for a model based on age alone to 77% (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.

Acrylamide and Glycidamide Hemoglobin Adducts and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: A Nested Case-Control Study in Nonsmoking Postmenopausal Women from the EPIC Cohort

BACKGROUND

Acrylamide was classified as "probably carcinogenic to humans (group 2A)" by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the fourth cause of cancer mortality in women. Five epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between EOC risk and dietary acrylamide intake assessed using food frequency questionnaires, and one nested case-control study evaluated hemoglobin adducts of acrylamide (HbAA) and its metabolite glycidamide (HbGA) and EOC risk; the results of these studies were inconsistent.

METHODS

A nested case-control study in nonsmoking postmenopausal women (334 cases, 417 controls) was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between HbAA, HbGA, HbAA+HbGA, and HbGA/HbAA and EOC and invasive serous EOC risk.

RESULTS

No overall associations were observed between biomarkers of acrylamide exposure analyzed in quintiles and EOC risk; however, positive associations were observed between some middle quintiles of HbGA and HbAA+HbGA. Elevated but nonstatistically significant ORs for serous EOC were observed for HbGA and HbAA+HbGA (ORQ5vsQ1, 1.91; 95% CI, 0.96-3.81 and ORQ5vsQ1, 1.90; 95% CI, 0.94-3.83, respectively); however, no linear dose-response trends were observed.

CONCLUSION

This EPIC nested case-control study failed to observe a clear association between biomarkers of acrylamide exposure and the risk of EOC or invasive serous EOC.

IMPACT

It is unlikely that dietary acrylamide exposure increases ovarian cancer risk; however, additional studies with larger sample size should be performed to exclude any possible association with EOC risk.

Life-course social position, obesity and diabetes risk in the EPIC-Spain Cohort

BACKGROUND

The literature has consistently shown that extreme social-economic groups predicted type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), rather than summarising the social gradient throughout all society stratification. Body mass index (BMI) was established as the principal mediator, with little support for other anthropometries. Our aim was to investigate an individual life-course social position (LiSoP) gradient and its mediators with T2D risk in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

METHODS

36 296 participants (62% women), mostly aged 30-65 years, and free of T2D at baseline (1992-1996) were followed up for a mean of 12.1 years. A combined score of paternal occupation in childhood and own adult education assessed individual life-course social risk accumulation. Hazard ratios of T2D were estimated using Cox regression, stratifying by centre and age, and adjusting for different explanatory models, including anthropometric indices; dietary history; smoking and physical activity lifestyles; and clinical information.

RESULTS

Final models evidenced significant risks in excess of 63% for middle and 90% for lower classes of LiSoP in men; and of 104 and 126%, respectively, in women. Concurrently, LiSoP presented significant social gradients for T2D risk (P < 0.01) in both sexes. Waist circumference (WC) accounted for most of the risk excess in women, and BMI and WC in men.

CONCLUSIONS

LiSoP gradient was related to T2D risk in Spanish men and women. WC mostly explained the relationship in both genders, together with BMI in men, yet LiSoP retained an independent effect in final models.

General and abdominal obesity and risk of esophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

General obesity, as reflected by BMI, is an established risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a suspected risk factor for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCC) and appears unrelated to gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCC). How abdominal obesity, as commonly measured by waist circumference (WC), relates to these cancers remains largely unexplored. Using measured anthropometric data from 391,456 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study and 11 years of follow-up, we comprehensively assessed the association of anthropometric measures with risk of EAC, GCC and GNCC using multivariable proportional hazards regression. One hundred twenty-four incident EAC, 193 GCC and 224 GNCC were accrued. After mutual adjustment, BMI was unrelated to EAC, while WC showed a strong positive association (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.19; 95% CI, 0.63-2.22 and HR = 3.76; 1.72-8.22, respectively). Hip circumference (HC) was inversely related to EAC after controlling for WC, while WC remained positively associated (HR = 0.35; 0.18-0.68, and HR=4.10; 1.94-8.63, respectively). BMI was not associated with GCC or GNCC. WC was related to higher risks of GCC after adjustment for BMI and more strongly after adjustment for HC (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.91; 1.09-3.37, and HR = 2.23; 1.28-3.90, respectively). Our study demonstrates that abdominal, rather than general, obesity is an indisputable risk factor for EAC and also provides evidence for a protective effect of gluteofemoral (subcutaneous) adipose tissue in EAC. Our study further shows that general obesity is not a risk factor for GCC and GNCC, while the role of abdominal obesity in GCC needs further investigation.

An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: the EPIC study

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents.

METHODS

We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202,206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

RESULTS

Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration.

CONCLUSION

Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

Total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea intake and gastric cancer risk: results from the EPIC cohort study

Prospective studies examining the association between coffee and tea consumption and gastric cancer risk have shown inconsistent results. We investigated the association between coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea consumption and the risk of gastric cancer by anatomical site and histological type in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Coffee and tea consumption were assessed by dietary questionnaires at baseline. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression models. During 11.6 years of follow up, 683 gastric adenocarcinoma cases were identified among 477,312 participants. We found no significant association between overall gastric cancer risk and consumption of total coffee (HR 1.09, 95%-confidence intervals [CI]: 0.84-1.43; quartile 4 vs. non/quartile 1), caffeinated coffee (HR 1.14, 95%-CI: 0.82-1.59; quartile 4 vs. non/quartile 1), decaffeinated coffee (HR 1.07, 95%-CI: 0.75-1.53; tertile 3 vs. non/tertile 1) and tea (HR 0.81, 95%-CI: 0.59-1.09; quartile 4 vs. non/quartile 1). When stratified by anatomical site, we observed a significant positive association between gastric cardia cancer risk and total coffee consumption per increment of 100 mL/day (HR 1.06, 95%-CI: 1.03-1.11). Similarly, a significant positive association was observed between gastric cardia cancer risk and caffeinated coffee consumption (HR 1.98, 95%-CI: 1.16-3.36, p-trend=0.06; quartile 3 vs. non/quartile 1) and per increment of 100 mL/day (HR 1.09, 95%-CI: 1.04-1.14). In conclusion, consumption of total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea is not associated with overall gastric cancer risk. However, total and caffeinated coffee consumption may be associated with an increased risk of gastric cardia cancer. Further prospective studies are needed to rule out chance or confounding.

Variation at ABO histo-blood group and FUT loci and diffuse and intestinal gastric cancer risk in a European population

ABO blood serotype A is known to be associated with risk of gastric cancer (GC), but little is known how ABO alleles and the fucosyltransferase (FUT) enzymes and genes which are involved in Lewis antigen formation [and in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) binding and pathogenicity] may be related to GC risk in a European population. The authors conducted an investigation of 32 variants at ABO and FUT1-7 loci and GC risk in a case-control study of 365 cases and 1,284 controls nested within the EPIC cohort (the EPIC-Eurgast study). Four variants (including rs505922) in ABO, and allelic blood group A (AO+AA, odds ratio=1.84, 95%CI=1.20-2.80) were associated with diffuse-type GC; however, conditional models with other ABO variants indicated that the associations were largely due to allelic blood group A. One variant in FUT5 was also associated with diffuse-type GC, and four variants (and haplotypes) in FUT2 (Se), FUT3 (Le) and FUT6 with intestinal-type GC. Further, one variant in ABO, two in FUT3 and two in FUT6 were associated with H. pylori infection status in controls, and two of these (in FUT3 and FUT6) were weakly associated with intestinal-type GC risk. None of the individual variants surpassed a Bonferroni corrected p-value cutoff of 0.0016; however, after a gene-based permutation test, two loci [FUT3(Le)/FUT5/FUT6 and FUT2(Se)] were significantly associated with diffuse- and intestinal-type GC, respectively. Replication and functional studies are therefore recommended to clarify the role of ABO and FUT alleles in H. pylori infection and subtype-specific gastric carcinogenesis.

Adipose tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and total cancer risk in an adult cohort from Southern Spain: preliminary data from year 9 of the follow-up

There is an increasing trend in the incidence of cancer worldwide, and it has been accepted that environmental factors account for an important proportion of the global burden. The present paper reports preliminary findings on the influence of the historical exposure to a group of persistent organic pollutants on total cancer risk, at year 9 in the follow-up of a cohort from Southern Spain. A cohort of 368 participants (median age 51 years) was recruited in 2003. Their historical exposure was estimated by analyzing residues of persistent organic pollutants in adipose tissue. Estimation of cancer incidence was based on data from a population-based cancer registry. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariable Cox-regression models. In males, PCB 153 concentrations were positively associated with total cancer risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.20 (1.01-1.41) for an increment of 100 ng/g lipid. Our preliminary findings suggest a potential relationship between the historical exposure to persistent organic pollutants and the risk of cancer in men. However, these results should be interpreted with caution and require verification during the future follow-up of this cohort.

Use of two-part regression calibration model to correct for measurement error in episodically consumed foods in a single-replicate study design: EPIC case study

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

Cumulative risk of second primary contralateral breast cancer in BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers with a first breast cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers are at a higher risk of breast cancer and of subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC). This study aims to evaluate the evidence of the effect of the BRCA1/2-carriership on CBC cumulative risk in female breast cancer patients. The literature was searched in Pubmed and Embase up to June 2013 for studies on CBC risk after a first primary invasive breast cancer in female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. A qualitative synthesis was carried out and the methodological quality of the studies evaluated. Cumulative risks of CBC after 5, 10 and 15 years since the first breast cancer diagnosis were pooled by BRCA1/2 mutation status. A total number of 20 articles, out of 1324 retrieved through the search, met the inclusion criteria: 18 retrospective and 2 prospective cohort studies. Cumulative risks of up to five studies were pooled. The cumulative 5-years risk of CBC for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers was 15% (95% CI: 9.5%-20%) and 9% (95% CI: 5%-14%), respectively. This risk increases with time since diagnosis of the first breast cancer; the 10-years risk increased up to 27% and 19%, respectively. The 5-years cumulative risk was remarkably lower in non-BRCA carriers (3%; 95% CI: 2%-5%) and remained so over subsequent years (5%; 95% CI: 3%-7%). In conclusion, risk of CBC increases with length of time after the first breast cancer diagnosis in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Studies addressing the impact of treatment-related factors and clinical characteristics of the first breast cancer on this risk are warranted.

Genetic association of gastric cancer with miRNA clusters including the cancer-related genes MIR29, MIR25, MIR93 and MIR106: results from the EPIC-EURGAST study

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are post-transcriptional gene regulators involved in a wide range of biological processes including tumorigenesis. Deregulation of miRNA pathways has been associated with cancer but the contribution of their genetic variability to this disorder is poorly known. We analyzed the genetic association of gastric cancer (GC) and its anatomical and histological subtypes, with 133 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging 15 isolated miRNAs and 24 miRNA clusters potentially involved in cancer, in 365 GC cases and 1,284 matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Various SNPs were associated with GC under the log-additive model. Furthermore, several of these miRNAs passed the gene-based permutation test when analyzed according to GC subtypes: three tagSNPs of the miR-29a/miR-29b-1 cluster were associated with diffuse subtype (minimum p-value = 1.7 × 10(-4) ; odds ratio, OR = 1.72; 95% confidence interval, CI = 1.30-2.28), two tagSNPs of the miR-25/miR-93/miR-106b cluster were associated with cardia GC (minimum p-value = 5.38 × 10(-3) ; OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.37-0.86) and one tagSNP of the miR-363/miR-92a-2/miR-19b-2/miR-20b/miR-18b/miR-106a cluster was associated with noncardia GC (minimum p-value = 5.40 × 10(-3) ; OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.12-1.78). Some functionally validated target genes of these miRNAs are implicated in cancer-related processes such as methylation (DNMT3A, DNMT3B), cell cycle (E2F1, CDKN1A, CDKN1C), apoptosis (BCL2L11, MCL1), angiogenesis (VEGFA) and progression (PIK3R1, MYCN). Furthermore, we identified genetic interactions between variants tagging these miRNAs and variants in their validated target genes. Deregulation of the expression of these miRNAs in GC also supports our findings, altogether suggesting for the fist time that genetic variation in MIR29, MIR25, MIR93 and MIR106b may have a critical role in genetic susceptibility to GC and could contribute to the molecular mechanisms of gastric carcinogenesis.

Evaluation of prognostic scale Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction and Killip. An ST-elevation myocardial infarction new scale

BACKGROUND

Prognostic systems are complex. So it is necessary to find tools, which are easy to use and have good calibration and discrimination.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of Killip, Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), and age to develop a new prognostic scale for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

The study population included all patients with STEMI consecutively admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of Carlos Haya Hospital, Malaga, Spain. Top variables included are Killip and TIMI, hospital mortality, intensive care unit stay, treatment received, and care times intervals.

RESULTS

The results are 806 patients; 75.6% men; age 63.11 ± 12.83 years old; TIMI, 3.57 ± 2.38; Killip I, 81.4%; and hospital mortality, 11.3%. Mortality increased in relation to age, TIMI, and Killip (P < .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area for TIMI is 0.832 (0.786-0.878) and Killip, 0.757 (0.698-0.822). Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction classification was associated with Killip and age by multiple linear regression. Patients were stratified into 5 groups according to Killip and age: Killip I and younger than 65 years (n = 369; mortality, 1.4%; odds ratio [OR], 1), Killip I and 65 to 75 years old (n = 173; mortality, 6.9%; OR, 5.43 [1.88-15.66]), Killip I and older than 75 years (n = 112; mortality, 18.9%; OR, 13.03 [4.69-36.21]), Killip II to III (n = 129; mortality, 31%; OR, 22.72 [12.55-85.29]), Killip IV (n = 20; mortality, 80%; OR, 291.2 [71.32-1189]). ROC area is 0.84 (0.798-0.883). We created a scale with scores based on the β coefficient of logistical regression.

CONCLUSIONS

The TIMI scale discriminated hospital mortality correctly for STEMI. It performed better than Killip alone and similar to a simple model that included age and Killip. The 2-variable model consists of a simple scale with 5 categories.

Hospital-acquired pressure ulcers and risk of hospital mortality in intensive care patients on mechanical ventilation

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a common and serious complication in critically ill patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the development of a PU and hospital mortality in patients requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) in an intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was performed over two years in patients requiring MV for ≥ 24 hours in a medical-surgical ICU. Primary outcome measure was hospital mortality and main independent variable was the development of a PU grade ≥ II. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a Cox model with time-dependent covariates.

RESULTS

Out of 563 patients in the study, 110 (19.5%) developed a PU. Overall hospital mortality was 48.7%. In the adjusted multivariate model, PU onset was a significant independent predictor of mortality (adjusted HR, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.003-1.65; P = 0.047). The model also included the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, total Sequential Organ Failure Assessment on day 3, hepatic cirrhosis and medical admission.

CONCLUSION

Within the limitations of a single-centre approach, PU development appears to be associated with an increase in mortality among patients requiring MV for 24 hours or longer.

Dietary intake of acrylamide and esophageal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort

PURPOSE

The relation between dietary acrylamide intake and esophageal cancer (EC) risk, including esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), has not been consistent. We evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and EAC, ESCC, and overall EC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

METHODS

Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the HR and 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI). Since nonlinear relations were observed, HRs were displayed for quartiles of acrylamide intake in μg per day.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 11 years, 341 EC were identified, 142 of which were EAC, 176 ESCC, and 23 other histological types or not specified. An increase in EC risk was observed in the second and third quartiles (HRQ2vsQ1 1.75, 95 % CI 1.12-2.74; HRQ3vsQ1 1.66, 95 % CI 1.05-2.61), but not in the fourth quartile, and there was no evidence for a linear dose-response trend. HRs were similarly elevated but not statistically significant when ESCC and EAC were analyzed separately, due to the small number of cases observed. No associations were observed when quartiles were based on energy-adjusted acrylamide intake.

CONCLUSIONS

In the EPIC cohort, an association between estimated dietary acrylamide intake and an increased risk of developing EC was observed in the middle quartiles but not in the highest quartile; however, results from other larger cohorts or consortia, and results from biomarker studies, might add to the evidence provided by this analysis, suggesting that acrylamide is not an important risk factor for EC.

Intake of total omega-3 fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid and risk of coronary heart disease in the Spanish EPIC cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The evidence about the benefits of omega-3 fatty acid intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) is not consistent. We thus aimed to assess the relation between dietary intake of total omega-3 fatty acids (from plant and marine foods) and marine polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), on the risk of CHD in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The analysis included 41,091 men and women aged 20-69 years, recruited from 1992 to 1996 and followed-up until December 2004. Omega-3 fatty acid intake was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Only participants with definite incident CHD event were considered as cases. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between the intake of total omega-3 fatty acids, EPA or DHA and CHD. A total of 609 participants (79% men) had a definite CHD event. Mean intakes of total omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA were very similar in the cases and in the cohort, both in men and women. In the multivariate adjusted model, omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA were not related to incident CHD in either men or women. The hazard ratios (HR) for omega-3 were 1.23 in men (95% CI 0.94-15.9, p = 0.20); and 0.77 in women (95% CI 0.46-1.30, p = 0.76).

CONCLUSION

In the Spanish EPIC cohort, with a relatively high intake of fish, no association was found between EPA, DHA and total omega-3 fatty acid intake and risk of CHD.

Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus: are the associations different from those in individuals without diabetes?

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Thus far, it is unclear whether lifestyle recommendations for people with diabetes should be different from those for the general public. We investigated whether the associations between lifestyle factors and mortality risk differ between individuals with and without diabetes.

METHODS

Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort was formed of 6,384 persons with diabetes and 258,911 EPIC participants without known diabetes. Joint Cox proportional hazard regression models of people with and without diabetes were built for the following lifestyle factors in relation to overall mortality risk: BMI, waist/height ratio, 26 food groups, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking. Likelihood ratio tests for heterogeneity assessed statistical differences in regression coefficients.

RESULTS

Multivariable adjusted mortality risk among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk. These associations were significantly different in magnitude from those in diabetes-free individuals, but directions were similar. No differences between people with and without diabetes were detected for the other lifestyle factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Diabetes status did not substantially influence the associations between lifestyle and mortality risk. People with diabetes may benefit more from a healthy diet, but the directions of association were similar. Thus, our study suggests that lifestyle advice with respect to mortality for patients with diabetes should not differ from recommendations for the general population.

Polymorphisms of Helicobacter pylori signaling pathway genes and gastric cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Eurgast cohort

Helicobacter pylori is a recognized causal factor of noncardia gastric cancer (GC). Lipopolysaccharide and peptidoglycan of this bacterium are recognized by CD14, TLR4 and NOD2 human proteins, while NFKB1 activates the transcription of pro-inflammatory cytokines to elicit an immune response. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in these genes have been associated with GC in different populations. We genotyped 30 SNPs of these genes, in 365 gastric adenocarcinomas and 1,284 matched controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort. The association with GC and its histological and anatomical subtypes was analyzed by logistic regression and corrected for multiple comparisons. Using a log-additive model, we found a significant association between SNPs in CD14, NOD2 and TLR4 with GC risk. However, after applying the multiple comparisons tests only the NOD2 region remained significant (p = 0.009). Analysis according to anatomical subtypes revealed NOD2 and NFKB1 SNPs associated with noncardia GC and CD14 SNPs associated with cardia GC, while analysis according to histological subtypes showed that CD14 was associated with intestinal but not diffuse GC. The multiple comparisons tests confirmed the association of NOD2 with noncardia GC (p = 0.0003) and CD14 with cardia GC (p = 0.01). Haplotype analysis was in agreement with single SNP results for NOD2 and CD14 genes. From these results, we conclude that genetic variation in NOD2 associates with noncardia GC while variation in CD14 is associated with cardia GC.

Vitamin C transporter gene (SLC23A1 and SLC23A2) polymorphisms, plasma vitamin C levels, and gastric cancer risk in the EPIC cohort

Vitamin C is known to protect mucosal tissues from oxidative stress and inhibit nitrosamine formation in the stomach. High consumption of fruits, particularly citrus, and higher circulating vitamin C concentrations may be inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC) risk. We investigated 20 polymorphisms in vitamin C transporter genes SCL23A1 and SCL23A2 and GC risk in 365 cases and 1,284 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We also evaluated the association between these polymorphisms and baseline plasma vitamin C levels in a subset of participants. Four SNPs were predictors of plasma vitamin C levels (SLC23A1 rs11950646 and rs33972313; SLC23A2 rs6053005 and rs6133175) in multivariable linear regression models. One SNP (SLC23A2 rs6116569) was associated with GC risk, in particular non-cardia GC (OR = 1.63, 95 % CI = 1.11-2.39, based on 178 non-cardia cases), but this association was attenuated when plasma vitamin C was included in the logistic regression model. Haplotype analysis of SLC23A1 yielded no associations with GC. In SLC23A2, one haplotype was associated with both overall and non-cardia GC, another haplotype was associated with GC overall, and a third was associated with intestinal-type GC. Common variants in SLC23A1 and SLC23A2 may influence plasma vitamin C concentration independent of dietary intake, and variation in SLC23A2 may influence GC risk. Additional prospective studies in large populations and consortia are recommended. Investigation of variation in vitamin C transporter genes may shed light on the preventative properties of vitamin C in gastric carcinogenesis.

Comparison of alternating pressure mattresses and overlays for prevention of pressure ulcers in ventilated intensive care patients: a quasi-experimental study

AIM

To compare the effectiveness of alternating pressure air mattresses vs. overlays to prevent pressure ulcers in mechanically ventilated patients in intensive care units.

BACKGROUND

Pressure ulcers prevention is an important issue in the nursing of critically ill patients. It is not clear whether alternating pressure air mattresses are more effective than overlays to prevent pressure ulcers.

DESIGN

Prospective quasi-experimental study.

METHODS

A prospective quasi-experimental study was conducted among patients in the medical-surgery intensive care unit of a university hospital on mechanical ventilation ≥24 hours during two time periods (2001 and 2006). Overlays were used in 2001 and mattresses in 2006. Primary outcome was the incidence of pressure ulcers grade ≥II (according to the European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel) during intensive care unit stay.

RESULTS

The study included 221 patients (116 in 2001 and 105 in 2006). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups except for a higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score, total and first-day respiratory Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score on day 1 in overlay group. There was significantly lower incidence density in the mattress vs. overlay group (12·41 cases/1000 days vs. 18·67 cases/1000 days of stay). The multivariate analyses showed the use of the mattress to be a protective factor against pressure ulcer onset.

CONCLUSION

This quasi-experiment study that alternative pressure air mattresses were more effective than alternating pressure air overlays in preventing pressure ulcers in mechanically ventilated critical care patients.

Dietary flavonoid and lignan intake and gastric adenocarcinoma risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

BACKGROUND

Several experimental studies have suggested potential anticarcinogenic effects of flavonoids, although epidemiologic evidence for the impact of dietary flavonoids on risk of gastric cancer (GC) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between intake of dietary flavonoids and lignans and incident GC.

DESIGN

The study followed 477,312 subjects (29.8% men) aged 35-70 y from 10 European countries who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Validated dietary questionnaires and lifestyle information were collected at baseline. A food-composition database on flavonoids and lignans was compiled by using data from USDA and Phenol-Explorer databases.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 11 y, 683 incident GC cases (57.8% men) were mostly validated by a panel of pathologists and used in this analysis. We observed a significant inverse association between total flavonoid intake and GC risk in women (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.94; for the continuous variable after log₂ transformation) but not in men (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.09). In women, significant inverse associations with GC risk were also observed for intakes of some flavonoid subgroups (anthocyanidins, flavonols, flavones, and flavanols), particularly with intestinal type tumors for total flavonoid and flavanol intakes (P-heterogeneity < 0.1). After stratification by smoking status and sex, there was no significant heterogeneity in these associations between ever- and never-smokers.

CONCLUSION

Total dietary flavonoid intake is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of GC in women.

Compliance with dietary and nutrient recommendations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Granada cohort at recruitment

BACKGROUND

The overall intake of energy and nutrients in the Granada EPIC-cohort (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) is examined in order to assess compliance with the Spanish Nutritional Objectives (NO) and the Recommended Intakes (RI).

METHODS

During recruitment (1992-1996), 7,789 participants, aged 35-69, were asked about diet through a validated diet history questionnaire. Nutrient intake is compared to the NO and RI that were valid at that time. Risk of inadequate intake is estimated as the percentage of the sample with intakes: ≤ 1/3 RI (high risk), ≤ 2/3 RI- > 1/3 RI (moderate risk), ≤ RI- > 2/3 RI, > RI. Differences in intakes have been analyzed by sex and age, and by smoking status and BMI.

RESULTS

The daily intake of nutrients did not meet the NO as the total contribution of energy from proteins and fats exceeded these guidelines. Whilst intake of most nutrients was above the RI, the amount of iron, magnesium and vitamins D and E provided by the diet was not enough to meet the RI: in women aged 20-49 years, about 55% were at moderate risk for iron inadequacy, and a 20% of women for magnesium. Both sexes were at high risk of inadequacy for vitamin D, although sunlight exposure may supply adequate amounts. Never smokers showed a higher compliance to the NO.

CONCLUSION

At recruitment, the nutrient profile of the diet was unbalanced. The observed nutrient inadequacy for iron, magnesium and vitamin E might be attributed to inappropriate dietary habits, and may have implications for future disease risk.

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of gastric adenocarcinoma: a reanalysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-EURGAST) study after a longer follow-up

In a previous European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) analysis, we found an inverse association between total intake of vegetables, onion and garlic, and risk of intestinal gastric cancer (GC) and between citrus fruit and risk of cardia GC. The aim of this study is to reanalyze the effect of fruit and vegetables (F&V), based on a longer follow-up and twice the number of GC cases. Subjects are 477,312 men and women mostly aged 35 to 70 years participating in the EPIC cohort, including 683 gastric adenocarcinomas with 11 years of follow-up. Information on diet and lifestyle was collected at baseline. A calibration study in a subsample was used to correct for dietary measurement errors. When comparing the highest vs. lowest quintile of intake, we found an inverse association between total intake of V&F and GC risk [hazard ratio (HR) 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57-1.04; p for trend 0.02], between fresh fruit and risk of the diffuse type (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.36-0.97; p for trend 0.03) and an inverse association between citrus fruit and risk of cardia cancer (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.38-1.00, p for trend 0.01). Although calibration revealed somewhat stronger inverse associations, none of the risks reached statistical significance. There was no association between total or specific vegetables intake and GC risk. The inverse association between fresh fruit and citrus fruits and risk of GC seems to be restricted to smokers and the Northern European countries. Fresh fruit and citrus fruit consumption may protect against diffuse and cardia GC, respectively.

Variety in vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

Diets high in vegetables and fruits have been suggested to be inversely associated with risk of gastric cancer. However, the evidence of the effect of variety of consumption is limited. We therefore investigated whether consumption of a variety of vegetables and fruit is associated with gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Data on food consumption and follow-up on cancer incidence were available for 452,269 participants from 10 European countries. After a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 475 cases of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas (180 noncardia, 185 cardia, gastric esophageal junction and esophagus, 110 not specified) and 98 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas were observed. Diet Diversity Scores were used to quantify the variety in vegetable and fruit consumption. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to calculate risk ratios. Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in the consumption of vegetables and fruit combined and of fruit consumption alone were statistically significantly inversely associated with the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (continuous hazard ratio per 2 products increment 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.97 and 0.76; 95% CI 0.62-0.94, respectively) with the latter particularly seen in ever smokers. Variety in vegetable and/or fruit consumption was not associated with risk of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas. Independent from quantity of consumption, more variety in vegetable and fruit consumption combined and in fruit consumption alone may decrease the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, residual confounding by lifestyle factors cannot be excluded.

A risk model for lung cancer incidence

Risk models for lung cancer incidence would be useful for prioritizing individuals for screening and participation in clinical trials of chemoprevention. We present a risk model for lung cancer built using prospective cohort data from a general population which predicts individual incidence in a given time period. We build separate risk models for current and former smokers using 169,035 ever smokers from the multicenter European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and considered a model for never smokers. The data set was split into independent training and test sets. Lung cancer incidence was modeled using survival analysis, stratifying by age started smoking, and for former smokers, also smoking duration. Other risk factors considered were smoking intensity, 10 occupational/environmental exposures previously implicated with lung cancer, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms at two loci identified by genome-wide association studies of lung cancer. Individual risk in the test set was measured by the predicted probability of lung cancer incidence in the year preceding last follow-up time, predictive accuracy was measured by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Using smoking information alone gave good predictive accuracy: the AUC and 95% confidence interval in ever smokers was 0.843 (0.810-0.875), the Bach model applied to the same data gave an AUC of 0.775 (0.737-0.813). Other risk factors had negligible effect on the AUC, including never smokers for whom prediction was poor. Our model is generalizable and straightforward to implement. Its accuracy can be attributed to its modeling of lifetime exposure to smoking.

Aromatic DNA adducts and risk of gastrointestinal cancers: a case-cohort study within the EPIC-Spain

BACKGROUND

Colorectal (CRC) and gastric cancer (GC) are associated with meat intake and tobacco smoke, maybe because of aromatic compounds occurring in tobacco smoking and formed during cooking meat. Activated metabolites of these compounds may bind to DNA forming bulky adducts.

METHODS

Forty-eight subjects diagnosed of GC and 154 of CRC during a 7-year follow-up period in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Spain cohort were compared with a sample of 296 subjects using a case-cohort approach. Aromatic adducts to DNA from leukocytes collected at recruitment were measured by means of the (32)P-postlabeling technique. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted by relevant confounders were estimated by a modified version of Cox regression.

RESULTS

Using the log(2)-transformed adduct concentration, we observed a RR = 1.57 (CI: 1.25-1.97) for CRC, which means a 57% increased risk associated with doubling the level of adducts, and 47% (RR = 1.47, CI: 1.07-2.00) increase in risk of GC. The association was more marked for colon than for rectal tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

The level of aromatic adducts in the DNA is independently associated with an increased risk of gastric and CRCs. This effect could be due to aromatic compounds present in tobacco smoke or formed in meat, but they could be also due to genotoxic compounds from other sources.

IMPACT

Sources of aromatic compounds should be taken into account, in addition to known risk factors, in the research and prevention of tumors of the stomach, colon, and rectum.

Genetic variation in alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH1A, ADH1B, ADH1C, ADH7) and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH2), alcohol consumption and gastric cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

Studies that have examined the association between alcohol consumption and gastric cancer (GC) risk have been inconsistent. We conducted an investigation of 29 genetic variants in alcohol metabolism loci (alcohol dehydrogenase, ADH1 gene cluster: ADH1A, ADH1B and ADH1C; ADH7 and aldehyde dehydrogenase, ALDH2), alcohol intake and GC risk. We analyzed data from a nested case-control study (364 cases and 1272 controls) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped using a customized array. We observed a statistically significant association between a common 3'-flanking SNP near ADH1A (rs1230025) and GC risk [allelic odds ratio (OR)(A v T) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.59]. Two intronic variants, one in ADH1C (rs283411) and one in ALDH2 (rs16941667), also were associated with GC risk (OR(T v C) = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.38-0.91 and OR(T v C) = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.00-1.79, respectively). Individuals carrying variant alleles at both ADH1 (rs1230025) and ALDH2 (rs16941667) were twice as likely to develop GC (OR(A+T) = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.25-3.20) as those not carrying variant alleles. The association between rs1230025 and GC was modified by alcohol intake (<5 g/day: OR(A) = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.57-1.39; ≥5 g/day: OR(A) = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.08-1.94, P-value = 0.05). The association was also modified by ethanol intake from beer. A known functional SNP in ADH1B (rs1229984) was associated with alcohol intake (P-value = 0.04) but not GC risk. Variants in ADH7 were not associated with alcohol intake or GC risk. In conclusion, genetic variants at ADH1 and ALDH2 loci may influence GC risk, and alcohol intake may further modify the effect of ADH1 rs1230025. Additional population-based studies are needed to confirm our results.

Plasma phospholipid fatty acid concentrations and risk of gastric adenocarcinomas in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-EURGAST)

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic data suggest that diet is a risk factor in the etiology of gastric cancer. However, the role of dietary fatty acids, a modifiable risk factor, remains relatively unexplored.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the association of plasma phospholipid fatty acid concentrations, as biomarkers of exogenous and endogenously derived fatty acids, with the risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Europe Gastric Cancer (EPIC-EURGAST).

DESIGN

Fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography in prediagnostic plasma phospholipids from 238 cases matched to 626 controls by age, sex, study center, and date of blood donation. Conditional logistic regression models adjusted for Helicobacter pylori infection status, BMI, smoking, physical activity, education, and energy intake were used to estimate relative cancer risks.

RESULTS

Positive risk associations for gastric cancer were observed in the highest compared with the lowest quartiles of plasma oleic acid (OR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.94), di-homo-γ-linolenic acid (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.35), α-linolenic acid (OR: 3.20; 95% CI: 1.70, 6.06), and the ratio of MUFAs to saturated fatty acids, as an indicator of stearoyl-CoA desaturase-1 enzyme activity (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 0.81, 2.43). An inverse risk association was observed with the ratio of linoleic to α-linolenic acid (OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.66).

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that a specific prediagnostic plasma phospholipid fatty acid profile, characterized mainly by high concentrations of oleic acid, α-linolenic acid, and di-homo-γ-linolenic acid, which presumably reflect both a complex dietary pattern and altered fatty acid metabolism, may be related to increased gastric cancer risk.

Alcohol consumption and gastric cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. The association between alcohol consumption and GC has been investigated in numerous epidemiologic studies with inconsistent results.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the association between alcohol consumption and GC risk.

DESIGN

We conducted a prospective analysis in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which included 444 cases of first primary gastric adenocarcinoma. HRs and 95% CIs for GC were estimated by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for consumption of pure ethanol in grams per day, with stratification by smoking status, anatomic subsite (cardia, noncardia), and histologic subtype (diffuse, intestinal). In a subset of participants, results were further adjusted for baseline Helicobacter pylori serostatus.

RESULTS

Heavy (compared with very light) alcohol consumption (≥60 compared with 0.1-4.9 g/d) at baseline was positively associated with GC risk (HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.58), whereas lower consumption amounts (<60 g/d) were not. When we analyzed GC risk by type of alcoholic beverage, there was a positive association for beer (≥30 g/d; HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.73) but not for wine or liquor. Associations were primarily observed at the highest amounts of drinking in men and limited to noncardia subsite and intestinal histology; no statistically significant linear dose-response trends with GC risk were observed.

CONCLUSION

Heavy (but not light or moderate) consumption of alcohol at baseline (mainly from beer) is associated with intestinal-type noncardia GC risk in men from the EPIC cohort.

[Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and prognostic factors in probable or confirmed invasive meningococcal disease in a cohort of adolescents and adults during an epidemic outbreak]

OBJECTIVE

To describe the profile of people suffering Invasive Meningococcal Disease in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, and identify the risk factors for death.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective study was designed, recruiting cases from week 41 of 1995 to week 40 2000. Cases were probable or definite, and were extracted from the databases of the hospital by examining diagnosis at discharge or death.

RESULTS

167 cases were identified, with a mortality rate of 7.2%. Mean age was 28.88 years, this being greater in those who died (p = 0.041). There was no previous contact with the Health System before the diagnosis in 56.3% of the cases, this being associated with death (p = 0.017). The more frequent reason for contact was a low level of consciousness, and it was the only one associated to death (p = 0.036). Pharyngotonsilitis was associated with a lower incidence of death. About 24% of patients received antibiotics as out-patients and their use was associated to a lower incidence of death (p = 0.07). Temperature over 40 degrees C (p = 0.003) and heart rate lower than 60 beats per minute (p < 0.0005) were associated with death. Leucocytes in peripheral blood less than 4.500 cells/ microliter, or platelets less than 100.000 cells/microliter were associated with a greater proportion of deaths. In Cerebrospinal fluid, less than 5 leucocytes per microliter, or proteins less than 50 mg/dl were associated with more deaths. Neisseria meningitidis B was isolated in 47 patients (28.1%), and C in 77 cases (46.1%). Sepsis was significantly associated with death (p < 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of previous contacts with the Health System reveals an abrupt onset of Meningococcal disease, with less inflammatory response and very severe. Out of hospital antibiotic treatment and pharyngoamygdalitis are associated with a better prognosis.

Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias

BACKGROUND

Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables.

RESULTS

Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.93).

CONCLUSION

Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

[Changes in CIRUGIA ESPANOLA Letters to the Editor between 2000 and 2007]

OBJECTIVES

To describe the frequency and bibliographic characteristics of letters to the editor in the journal, Cirugía Española published between 2000 and 2007 and to compare the differences in the periods between 2000-2003 and 2004-2007.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

A descriptive and cross-sectional study, using the letters to the editor published in Spanish surgery between 2000 and 2007, as observation units. The variables considered were: the number of letters according to the volume and year of publication, substantive content of the paper, text length, graphics resources use, number of signatories and their professional profile, institutions of the authors, by origin and number of Autonomous Communities and number of bibliographical references. To meet the second objective, we compared letters from the period 2000-2003 with the period 2004-2007 against the rest of variables considered as a result. We used descriptive statistics and statistical analysis for comparison of distributions (chi2), with a level of significance of p < 0.05, using the SPSS software (Version 15.0).

RESULTS

We identified 312 documents classified as letters. Between 2002 and 2005 their number was small. Often referring to clinical cases 187 (59.9%) and related letters, 98 (31.4%). Of those, 81.1% met the standard length of the text and only 6 letters (1.9%) was the use of graphics exceeded. In 122 letters (39.1%) the permitted number of authors was exceeded. They were mostly contributed by surgeons, 238 cases (76.3%), usually a single hospital, with 294 letters (94.2%) mainly from, Catalonia, Andalusia, Madrid and Valencia. Only 58.1% of the letters complied with the permitted number of references. More related letters were published in the last period (59 letters; 42.1%) than during the years 2000-2003 (39 letters; 22.7%) (chi2 = 14.79; p < 0.001). The correct length of the text improved in the second period, 136 (97.1%), compared to the first 117 (68%) (chi2 = 42.67; p < 0.001. The graphics resources were used properly in both periods. The number of signatories ranged between 1 and 5 in 51.2% of cases in the first period compared to 72.9% in the second (chi2 = 15.25; p < 0.001. In both periods analysed the professional profile of the signatories was similar. More than one institution was involved in 10% of the letters in the final period, compared to 2.3% in the first year period (chi2 = 8.36; p = 0.004). The adequacy of the number of permitted references was higher in the final period (87.1%) than in the initial (34.9%) (chi2 = 86.72; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The letters in Cirugía Española journal have regained their previous frequency after a period of stagnation between 2002 and 2005. In the final period of the study there was a marked improvement compared to the first one in most indicators studied.

[Reliability assessment of the EUROTEST]

INTRODUCTION

The EUROTEST is a valid and useful instrument for detecting cognitive impairment and dementia. Our aim was to assess the test-retest reliability (TRTR) and the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of this instrument.

METHODS

We assessed the TRTR by means of a cross-sectional repeated measures design in 30 subjects with no cognitive impairment. The IRR was determined through the blind assessment of 10 test administrations by 20 independent observers. In both instances we calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient and we compared those coefficients with the ones of the semantic Verbal Fluency Test (sVFT) obtained with the same samples and procedures.

RESULTS

There were not significant differences concerning the characteristics of the subjects included in this study and those of previous studies on the EUROTEST. The EUROTEST showed a significantly higher TRTR (0.94 [95% CI: 0.87-0.97]) than the sVFT (0.51 [95% CI: 0.17- 0.74]), but there was not significant difference in IRR between the EUROTEST (0.91 [95% CI: 0.82-0.97]) and the sVFT (0.96 [95% CI: 0.91-0.99]).

CONCLUSIONS

The EUROTEST shows high TRTR and IRR; therefore, this instrument is appropriate for the longitudinal assessment of subjects with dementia and their response to treatment.

[Factors Related to the Use of Inhaled and Intravenous Heroin, Granada, Spain]

OBJECTIVE

Heroin use has stabilized in recent years in Spain, and the use of injected heroin having decreased. Nevertheless,major differences exist among different Autonomous Communities and among injected heroin users profile. This study is aimed at ascertaining the forms of heroin use (how administered) in an intentional sample of users in a situation of social exclusion andsome variables related to said forms of use.

METHODS

The sample was comprised of 285 participants (82.8% males; average age 36.06). This study was conducted in the city of Granada in July-October 2002. Structured surveys conducted by onthe-street interviewers and individuals having knowledge of the environment («peers») using the «snowball» technique.

RESULTS

A total of 48.4% of the participants alternate inhaled and intravenous heroin use; 25.6% using only inhaled and 25.6% only intravenous. Following a regression analysis, it was found that the females, the youngest users and those having started use at an older age were at less risk of intravenous heroin use. A total of 21.5% of the participants who started using heron in inhaled form, also currently use both the injected and inhaled forms, the remaining 79.5% continue to use the inhaled form.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals in a situation of social exclusion the intravenous form exceeds the estimated percentages in the Autonomous Community of Andalusia.

Bed Rest or Ambulation in the Initial Treatment of Patients With Acute Deep Vein Thrombosis or Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, many patients with acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are treated not only by anticoagulation therapy but additionally by strict bed rest, which is aimed at reducing the risk of pulmonary embolism (PE) events. However, this risk has not been subjected to empirical verification.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica is a Spanish registry of consecutively enrolled patients with objectively confirmed, symptomatic acute DVT or PE. In this analysis, the clinical characteristics, details of anticoagulant therapy, and clinical outcomes of enrolled patients with and without strict bed rest prescribed during the first 15 days were compared. Patients in whom ambulation was not possible were not included in this analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2,650 patients entered the study (DVT, 2,038 patients; PE, 612 patients). Of these patients, 1,050 DVT patients (52%) and 385 PE patients (63%) were prescribed strict bed rest. New events of symptomatic, objectively confirmed PE developed during the 15-day study period in 11 patients with DVT (0.5%) and 4 patients with PE (0.7%). Five of these 15 patients (33%) died as a result of their PE. Age < 65 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 to 11) and cancer (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 0.98 to 9.1) were associated with an increased rate of new PEs. There were not significant differences between bedridden and ambulant patients in terms of new PE events, fatal PE, or bleeding complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm those from previous reports suggesting that bed rest has no influence on the risk of developing PE among patients with acute DVT of the lower limbs. In addition, our findings show for the first time the lack of influence of bed rest even in patients presenting with acute submassive PE.

Socio-Economic Level, Farming Activities and Risk of Cancer in Small Areas of Southern Spain

An ecological design was used to study the relationship between cancer incidence and both socioeconomic and environmental features in Southern Spain. Twenty-four sites and 26,380 cases diagnosed in 1985--1996 were analysed. Generalised Additive Models were used for data analysis. Except for lip cancer, the urban areas showed an increase in cancer risk for all sites. The relative risks among urban and rural municipalities ranges between 1.09 for skin non-melanoma (95% CI: 1.00-1.18) and 1.64 for cervix cancer (95% CI: 1.28-2.12). The relative risk among areas with high and low unemployment was 1.29 for stomach cancer (95% CI: 1.07-1.57), 1.45 for oral cavity cancer (95% CI: 1.10-1.93) and 1.77 for oesophagus cancer (95% CI: 1.02-3.05). Areas with highest unemployment showed the lowest incidence of melanoma. Risk for leukaemia, gall bladder, breast and prostate cancer showed a significant decreases by approximately 28% in the municipalities with the highest illiteracy score. A high percentage of land under cultivation was related to uterine tumours, larynx, rectum, lung, skin non-melanoma and brain cancers. For these sites, the risk had a significant increase by between 23% (skin non-melanoma) and 70% (rectum). Areas with high intensive farming showed a significant increase in cancer risk for lip, oral cavity, larynx, oesophagus, colon, lung, and bladder cancer. The relative risks ranges between 1.16 for colon cancer (95% CI: 1.04-1.29) and 1.47 for oesophagus cancer (95% CI: 1.15-1.87). The results of this study reveal how important socio-economic and environmental factors are for the analysis of cancer incidence in small areas of Southern Spain.