The Impact of Model Assumptions on Personalized Lung Cancer Screening Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Recommendations regarding personalized lung cancer screening are being informed by natural-history modeling. Therefore, understanding how differences in model assumptions affect model-based personalized screening recommendations is essential.

DESIGN

Five Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models were evaluated. Lung cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distributions were compared across 4 theoretical scenarios to assess model assumptions regarding 1) sojourn times, 2) stage-specific sensitivities, and 3) screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions. Analyses were stratified by sex and smoking behavior.

RESULTS

Most cancers had sojourn times <5 y (model range [MR]; lowest to highest value across models: 83.5%-98.7% of cancers). However, cancer aggressiveness still varied across models, as demonstrated by differences in proportions of cancers with sojourn times <2 y (MR: 42.5%-64.6%) and 2 to 4 y (MR: 28.8%-43.6%). Stage-specific sensitivity varied, particularly for stage I (MR: 31.3%-91.5%). Screening reduced stage IV incidence in most models for 1 y postscreening; increased sensitivity prolonged this period to 2 to 5 y. Screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions among lung cancers detected at screening ranged widely (MR: 14.6%-48.9%), demonstrating variations in modeled treatment effectiveness of screen-detected cases. All models assumed longer sojourn times and greater screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions for women. Models assuming differences in cancer epidemiology by smoking behaviors assumed shorter sojourn times and lower screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions for heavy smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Model-based personalized screening recommendations are primarily driven by assumptions regarding sojourn times (favoring longer intervals for groups more likely to develop less aggressive cancers), sensitivity (higher sensitivities favoring longer intervals), and screening-induced mortality reductions (greater reductions favoring shorter intervals).

IMPLICATIONS

Models suggest longer screening intervals may be feasible and benefits may be greater for women and light smokers.

HIGHLIGHTS

Natural-history models are increasingly used to inform lung cancer screening, but causes for variations between models are difficult to assess.This is the first evaluation of these causes and their impact on personalized screening recommendations through easily interpretable metrics.Models vary regarding sojourn times, stage-specific sensitivities, and screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions.Model outcomes were similar in predicting greater screening benefits for women and potentially light smokers. Longer screening intervals may be feasible for women and light smokers.

Pack-Year Smoking History: An Inadequate and Biased Measure to Determine Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility

PURPOSE

Pack-year smoking history is an imperfect and biased measure of cumulative tobacco exposure. The use of pack-year smoking history to determine lung cancer screening eligibility in the current US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guideline may unintentionally exclude many high-risk individuals, especially those from racial and ethnic minority groups. It is unclear whether using a smoking duration cutoff instead of a smoking pack-year cutoff would improve the selection of individuals for screening.

METHODS

We analyzed 49,703 individuals with a smoking history from the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) and 22,126 individuals with a smoking history from the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) to assess eligibility for screening under the USPSTF guideline versus a proposed guideline that replaces the ≥20-pack-year criterion with a ≥20-year smoking duration criterion.

RESULTS

Under the USPSTF guideline, only 57.6% of Black patients with lung cancer in the SCCS would have qualified for screening, whereas a significantly higher percentage of White patients with lung cancer (74.0%) would have qualified (P < .001). Under the proposed guideline, the percentage of Black and White patients with lung cancer who would have qualified for screening increased to 85.3% and 82.0%, respectively, eradicating the disparity in screening eligibility between the groups. In the BWHS, using a 20-year smoking duration cutoff instead of a 20-pack-year cutoff increased the percentage of Black women with lung cancer who would have qualified for screening from 42.5% to 63.8%.

CONCLUSION

Use of a 20-year smoking duration cutoff instead of a 20-pack-year cutoff greatly increases the proportion of patients with lung cancer who would qualify for screening and eliminates the racial disparity in screening eligibility between Black versus White individuals; smoking duration has the added benefit of being easier to calculate and being a more precise assessment of smoking exposure compared with pack-year smoking history.

Unspoken Truths: Mental Health Among Academic Surgeons

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the current state of mental health within the surgical workforce in the United States.

BACKGROUND

Mental illness and suicide is a growing concern in the medical community; however, the current state is largely unknown.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey of the academic surgery community assessing mental health, medical error, and suicidal ideation. The odds of suicidal ideation adjusting for sex, prior mental health diagnosis, and validated scales screening for depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and alcohol use disorder were assessed.

RESULTS

Of 622 participating medical students, trainees, and surgeons (estimated response rate=11.4%-14.0%), 26.1% (141/539) reported a previous mental health diagnosis. In all, 15.9% (83/523) of respondents screened positive for current depression, 18.4% (98/533) for anxiety, 11.0% (56/510) for alcohol use disorder, and 17.3% (36/208) for PTSD. Medical error was associated with depression (30.7% vs. 13.3%, P <0.001), anxiety (31.6% vs. 16.2%, P =0.001), PTSD (12.8% vs. 5.6%, P =0.018), and hazardous alcohol consumption (18.7% vs. 9.7%, P =0.022). Overall, 13.2% (73/551) of respondents reported suicidal ideation in the past year and 9.6% (51/533) in the past 2 weeks. On adjusted analysis, a previous history of a mental health disorder (aOR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.04-3.65, P =0.033) and screening positive for depression (aOR: 4.30, 95% CI: 2.21-8.29, P <0.001) or PTSD (aOR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.61-9.44, P =0.002) were associated with increased odds of suicidal ideation over the past 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 1 in 7 respondents reported suicidal ideation in the past year. Mental illness and suicidal ideation are significant problems among the surgical workforce in the United States.

Risk Model-Based Lung Cancer Screening : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

In their 2021 lung cancer screening recommendation update, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) evaluated strategies that select people based on their personal lung cancer risk (risk model-based strategies), highlighting the need for further research on the benefits and harms of risk model-based screening.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare the cost-effectiveness of risk model-based lung cancer screening strategies versus the USPSTF recommendation and to explore optimal risk thresholds.

DESIGN

Comparative modeling analysis.

DATA SOURCES

National Lung Screening Trial; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program; U.S. Smoking History Generator.

TARGET POPULATION

1960 U.S. birth cohort.

TIME HORIZON

45 years.

PERSPECTIVE

U.S. health care sector.

INTERVENTION

Annual low-dose computed tomography in risk model-based strategies that start screening at age 50 or 55 years, stop screening at age 80 years, with 6-year risk thresholds between 0.5% and 2.2% using the PLCOm2012 model.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier connecting strategies with the highest health benefit at a given cost.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Risk model-based screening strategies were more cost-effective than the USPSTF recommendation and exclusively comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier. Among the strategies on the efficiency frontier, those with a 6-year risk threshold of 1.2% or greater were cost-effective with an ICER less than $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Specifically, the strategy with a 1.2% risk threshold had an ICER of $94 659 (model range, $72 639 to $156 774), yielding more QALYs for less cost than the USPSTF recommendation, while having a similar level of screening coverage (person ever-screened 21.7% vs. USPSTF's 22.6%).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES

Risk model-based strategies were robustly more cost-effective than the 2021 USPSTF recommendation under varying modeling assumptions.

LIMITATION

Risk models were restricted to age, sex, and smoking-related risk predictors.

CONCLUSION

Risk model-based screening is more cost-effective than the USPSTF recommendation, thus warranting further consideration.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Assessing Bias and Limitations of Clinical Validation Studies of Molecular Diagnostic Tests for Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Molecular tests for thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine needle aspiration results are increasingly used in clinical practice; however, true diagnostic summaries of these tests are unknown. A systematic review and meta-analysis were completed to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commercially available molecular tests for malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules and (2) quantify biases and limitations in studies that validate those tests. Summary: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were systematically searched through July 2021. English language articles that reported original clinical validation attempts of molecular tests for indeterminate thyroid nodules were included if they reported counts of true-negative, true-positive, false-negative, and false-positive results. We performed screening and full-text review, followed by assessment of eight common biases and limitations, extraction of diagnostic and histopathological information, and meta-analysis of clinical validity using a bivariate linear mixed-effects model. Forty-nine studies were included. Meta-analysis of Afirma Gene expression classifiers (GEC; n = 38 studies) revealed a sensitivity of 0.92 (confidence interval: 0.90-0.94), specificity of 0.26 (0.20-0.32), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.32 (0.23-0.44), positive LR+ of 1.24 (1.15-1.35), and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (0.74-0.89). Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC; n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.94 (0.89-0.96), specificity of 0.38 (0.27-0.50), LR- of 0.18 (0.10-0.30), LR+ of 1.52 (1.28-1.87), and AUC of 0.91 (0.62-0.92). ThyroSeq v1 and v2 (n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.86 (0.82-0.90), specificity of 0.74 (0.59-0.85), LR- of 0.19 (0.13-0.26), LR+ of 3.52 (2.08-5.92), and AUC of 0.86 (0.81-0.90). ThyroSeq v3 (n = 6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.86-0.95), specificity of 0.41 (0.18-0.69), LR- of 0.24 (0.09-0.62), LR+ of 1.67 (1.09-2.98), and AUC of 0.90 (0.63-0.92). Fourteen percent of studies conducted a blinded histopathologic review of excised thyroid nodules, and 8% made the decision to go to surgery blind to molecular test results. Conclusions: Meta-analyses reveal a high diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests for thyroid nodule assessment of malignancy risk; however, these studies are subject to several limitations. Limitations and their potential clinical impacts must be addressed and, when feasible, adjusted for using valid statistical methodologies.

Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation for Lung Cancer Screening

IMPORTANCE

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) issued its 2021 recommendation on lung cancer screening, which lowered the starting age for screening from 55 to 50 years and the minimum cumulative smoking exposure from 30 to 20 pack-years relative to its 2013 recommendation. Although costs are expected to increase because of the expanded screening eligibility criteria, it is unknown whether the new guidelines for lung cancer screening are cost-effective.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening compared with the 2013 recommendation and to explore the cost-effectiveness of 6 alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years and an ending age for screening of 80 years but varied the starting ages for screening (50 or 55 years) and the number of years since smoking cessation (≤15, ≤20, or ≤25).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis using 4 independently developed microsimulation models that shared common inputs to assess the population-level health benefits and costs of the 2021 recommended screening strategy and 6 alternative screening strategies compared with the 2013 recommended screening strategy. The models simulated a 1960 US birth cohort. Simulated individuals entered the study at age 45 years and were followed up until death or age 90 years, corresponding to a study period from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2050.

EXPOSURES

Low-dose computed tomography in lung cancer screening programs with a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of the 2021 vs 2013 USPSTF lung cancer screening recommendations as well as 6 alternative screening strategies vs the 2013 USPSTF screening strategy. Strategies with a mean ICER lower than $100 000 per QALY were deemed cost-effective.

RESULTS

The 2021 USPSTF recommendation was estimated to be cost-effective compared with the 2013 recommendation, with a mean ICER of $72 564 (range across 4 models, $59 493-$85 837) per QALY gained. The 2021 recommendation was not cost-effective compared with 6 alternative strategies that used the 20 pack-year criterion. Strategies associated with the most cost-effectiveness included those that expanded screening eligibility to include a greater number of former smokers who had not smoked for a longer duration (ie, ≤20 years and ≤25 years since smoking cessation vs ≤15 years since smoking cessation). In particular, the strategy that screened former smokers who quit within the past 25 years and began screening at age 55 years was associated with screening coverage closest to that of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation yet yielded greater cost-effectiveness, with a mean ICER of $66 533 (range across 4 models, $55 693-$80 539).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This economic evaluation found that the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening was cost-effective; however, alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years but included individuals who quit smoking within the past 25 years may be more cost-effective and warrant further evaluation.

Trends in Thyroid Surgery and Guideline-Concordant Care in the United States, 2007-2018

Background: The American Thyroid Association (ATA) published the 2015 Management Guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer, recommending a shift to less aggressive diagnostic, surgical, and postoperative treatment strategies. At the same time and perhaps related to the new guidelines, there has been a shift to outpatient thyroid surgery. The aim of the current study was to assess physician adherence to these recommendations by identifying and quantifying temporal trends in the rates and indications for thyroid procedures in the inpatient and outpatient settings. Methods: Using the IBM^® MarketScan^® Commercial database, we identified employer-insured patients in the United States who underwent outpatient and inpatient thyroid surgery from 2007 to 2018. Thyroid surgery was classified as total thyroidectomy (TT), thyroid lobectomy (TL), or a completion thyroidectomy. The surgical indication diagnosis was also determined and classified as either benign or malignant thyroid disease. We compared outpatient and inpatient trends in surgery between benign and malignant thyroid disease both before and after the release of the 2015 ATA guidelines. Results: A total of 220,088 patients who underwent thyroid surgery were included in the analysis. Approximately 80% of TLs were performed in the outpatient setting versus 70% of TTs. Longitudinal analysis showed a statistically significant changepoint for TT proportion occurring in November 2015. The proportion of TT as compared with TL decreased from 80% in September 2015 to 39% by December 2018. For thyroid cancer, there is an increasing trend in performing TL over TT, increasing from 17% in 2015 to 28% by the end of 2018. Conclusions: There was a significant changepoint occurring in November 2015 in the operative and management trends for benign and malignant thyroid disease.

Music during image-guided breast biopsy reduces patient anxiety levels

PURPOSE

Interventions to decrease anxiety associated with image-guided breast biopsy are needed. Music intervention has been shown to be helpful in other outpatient procedural settings but data are limited regarding its effectiveness in the setting of breast biopsy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether listening to self-selected music during image-guided breast biopsy lowers anxiety.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This randomized controlled trial was approved by the institutional review board and was HIPAA-compliant. 157 women between 18 and 75 (mean, 49.7 years) years of age, undergoing stereotactic or ultrasound-guided core biopsy, were enrolled in the study and were prospectively randomized to music or usual care. Patients in the music group listened to music of their choice during the biopsy. All patients completed the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) before and after the biopsy. Differences in pre-biopsy and post-biopsy anxiety levels were compared between the two groups using the Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

Baseline trait anxiety scores in the two groups were similar (34.0 music, 31.5 control, p = .11). Patients in both groups showed lower state anxiety levels after the biopsy (45.6 to 34.3 music, 41.0 to 33.8 control, p < .001 for both). Patients who listened to music showed a greater reduction in anxiety (mean decrease 11.2 music, 7.3 control, p = .03). Post-biopsy anxiety levels were similar to normative values for working women in the same age group.

CONCLUSION

Listening to self-selected music reduces anxiety in patients undergoing breast biopsy.

Breast cancer risk, worry, and anxiety: Effect on patient perceptions of false-positive screening results

Objective

The impact of mammography screening recall on quality-of-life (QOL) has been studied in women at average risk for breast cancer, but it is unknown whether these effects differ by breast cancer risk level. We used a vignette-based survey to evaluate how women across the spectrum of breast cancer risk perceive the experience of screening recall.

Methods

Women participating in mammography or breast MRI screening were recruited to complete a vignette-based survey. Using a numerical rating scale (0–100), women rated QOL for hypothetical scenarios of screening recall, both before and after benign results were known. Lifetime breast cancer risk was calculated using Gail and BRCAPRO risk models. Risk perception, trait anxiety, and breast cancer worry were assessed using validated instruments.

Results

The final study cohort included 162 women at low (n = 43, 26%), intermediate (n = 66, 41%), and high-risk (n = 53, 33%). Actual breast cancer risk was not a predictor of QOL for any of the presented scenarios. Across all risk levels, QOL ratings were significantly lower for the period during diagnostic uncertainty compared to after benign results were known (p < 0.05). In multivariable regression analyses, breast cancer worry was a significant predictor of decreased QoL for all screening scenarios while awaiting results, including scenarios with non-invasive imaging alone or with biopsy. High trait anxiety and family history predicted lower QOL scores after receipt of benign test results (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Women with high trait anxiety and family history may particularly benefit from discussions about the risk of recall when choosing a screening regimen.

•

Impact of screening recall on quality-of-life does not vary by breast cancer risk.

•

Breast cancer worry predicts lower quality-of-life ratings while awaiting results.

•

Quality-of-life ratings improve after receipt of benign results.

•

High trait anxiety predicts lower quality-of-life after benign results are known.

Long-term health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of coronary CT angiography in patients with suspicion for acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials have shown favorable clinical outcomes for coronary CT angiography (CTA) in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Our goal was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of coronary CTA as compared to alternative management strategies for ACP patients over lifetime.

METHODS

Markov microsimulation model was developed to compare cost-effectiveness of competitive strategies for ACP patients: 1) coronary CTA, 2) standard of care (SOC), 3) AHA/ACC Guidelines, and 4) expedited emergency department (ED) discharge protocol with outpatient testing. ROMICAT-II trial was used to populate the model with low to intermediate risk of ACS patient data, whereas diagnostic test-, treatment effect-, morbidity/mortality-, quality of life- and cost data were obtained from the literature. We predicted test utilization, costs, 1-, 3-, 10-year and over lifetime cardiovascular morbidity/mortality for each strategy. We determined quality adjusted life years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Observed outcomes in ROMICAT-II were used to validate the short-term model.

RESULTS

Estimated short-term outcomes accurately reflected observed outcomes in ROMICAT-II as coronary CTA was associated with higher costs ($4,490 vs. $2,513-$4,144) and revascularization rates (5.2% vs. 2.6%-3.7%) compared to alternative strategies. Over lifetime, coronary CTA dominated SOC and ACC/AHA Guidelines and was cost-effective compared to expedited ED protocol ($49,428/QALY). This was driven by lower cardiovascular mortality (coronary CTA vs. expedited discharge: 3-year: 1.04% vs. 1.10-1.17; 10-year: 5.06% vs. 5.21-5.36%; respectively).

CONCLUSION

Coronary CTA in patients with suspected ACS renders affordable long-term health benefits as compared to alternative strategies.

A decision analysis comparing 3 active surveillance protocols for the treatment of patients with low-risk prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) is a viable management option for approximately 50% of men who are newly diagnosed with prostate cancer. To the authors' knowledge, no direct comparisons between the different variants of AS protocols have been conducted to date. The authors developed a microsimulation decision model to evaluate which of 3 alternative AS protocols is optimal for men with low-risk prostate cancer, and compared each of these with immediate treatment.

METHODS

Men who were diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer at age 65 years were modeled as having been treated with either immediate therapy or via each of 3 AS protocols. Modeled AS protocols represent those in the literature; a modified AS protocol was included in a sensitivity analysis. Immediate therapy included radical prostatectomy, external-beam radiotherapy, or brachytherapy. Outcome measures were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs. Cost-effectiveness analysis and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Immediate therapy produced fewer QALYs than all variants of AS. Of the AS protocols evaluated, biennial biopsy was found to be the only efficient option, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $3490 per QALY compared with immediate therapy. It delayed the need for curative therapy by a mean of 56 months, and was found to be preferred in >86.9% of cases in probabilistic sensitivity analysis. A modified version of low-intensity AS dominated all other options.

CONCLUSIONS

For a 65-year-old man with low-risk prostate cancer, AS with biennial biopsy appears to be highly cost-effective compared with common alternatives. An AS protocol using triennial biopsy was found to dominate all other strategies and should be considered for men who are comfortable with a longer period between biopsies. The optimal strategy depends on a patient's tolerance for periodic biopsies and comfort with delaying radical treatment. Physicians should incorporate these patient preferences into decision making.

The thyroid cancer policy model: A mathematical simulation model of papillary thyroid carcinoma in The U.S. population

Background

Thyroid cancer affects over ½ million people in the U.S. and the incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide at a rate higher than any other cancer, while survival has remained largely unchanged. The aim of this research was to develop, calibrate and verify a mathematical disease model to simulate the natural history of papillary thyroid cancer, which will serve as a platform to assess the effectiveness of clinical and cancer control interventions.

Methods

Herein, we modeled the natural pre-clinical course of both benign and malignant thyroid nodules with biologically relevant health states from normal to detected nodule. Using established calibration techniques, optimal parameter sets for tumor growth characteristics, development rate, and detection rate were used to fit Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) incidence data and other calibration targets.

Results

Model outputs compared to calibration targets demonstrating sufficient calibration fit and model validation are presented including primary targets of SEER incidence data and size distribution at detection of malignancy. Additionally, we show the predicted underlying benign and malignant prevalence of nodules in the population, the probability of detection based on size of nodule, and estimates of growth over time in both benign and malignant nodules.

Conclusions

This comprehensive model provides a dynamic platform employable for future comparative effectiveness research. Future model analyses will test and assess various clinical management strategies to improve patient outcomes related to thyroid cancer and optimize resource utilization for patients with thyroid nodules.

Evaluating lung cancer screening in China: Implications for eligibility criteria design from a microsimulation modeling approach

More than half of males in China are current smokers and evidence from western countries tells us that an unprecedented number of smoking-attributable deaths will occur as the Chinese population ages. We used the China Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) to simulate effects of computed tomography (CT)-based lung cancer screening in China, comparing the impact of a screening guideline published in 2015 by a Chinese expert group to a version developed for the United States by the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). The China LCPM, built using an existing lung cancer microsimulation model, can project population outcomes associated with interventions for smoking-related diseases. After calibrating the model to published Chinese smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rates, we simulated screening from 2016 to 2050 based on eligibility criteria from the CMS and Chinese guidelines, which differ by age to begin and end screening, pack-years smoked, and years since quitting. Outcomes included number of screens, mortality reduction, and life-years saved for each strategy. We projected that in the absence of screening, 14.98 million lung cancer deaths would occur between 2016 and 2050. Screening with the CMS guideline would prevent 0.72 million deaths and 5.8 million life-years lost, resulting in 6.58% and 1.97% mortality reduction in males and females, respectively. Screening with the Chinese guideline would prevent 0.74 million deaths and 6.6 million life-years lost, resulting in 6.30% and 2.79% mortality reduction in males and females, respectively. Through 2050, 1.43 billion screens would be required using the Chinese screening strategy, compared to 988 million screens using the CMS guideline. In conclusion, CT-based lung cancer screening implemented in 2016 and based on the Chinese screening guideline would prevent about 20,000 (2.9%) more lung cancer deaths through 2050, but would require about 445 million (44.7%) more screens than the CMS guideline.

Estimation of Mortality Rates for Disease Simulation Models Using Bayesian Evidence Synthesis

Purpose. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for estimating competing risks for inputs to disease simulation models. This approach is suggested when modeling a disease that causes a large proportion of all-cause mortality, particularly when mortality from the disease of interest and other-cause mortality are both affected by the same risk factor.

Methods. The authors demonstrate a Bayesian evidence synthesis by estimating other-cause mortality, stratified by smoking status, for use in a simulation model of lung cancer. National (US) survey data linked to death registries (National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]—Multiple Cause of Death files) were used to fit cause-specific hazard models for 3 causes of death (lung cancer, heart disease, and all other causes), controlling for age, sex, race, and smoking status. Synthesis of NHIS data with national vital statistics data on numbers and causes of deaths was performed in WinBUGS (version 1.4.1, MRC Biostatistics Unit, UK). Correction for inconsistencies between the NHIS and vital statistics data is described. A published cohort study was a source of prior information for smoking-related mortality.

Results. Marginal posterior densities of annual mortality rates for lung cancer and other-cause death (further divided into heart disease and all other causes), stratified by 5-year age interval, race (white and black), gender, and smoking status (current, former, never), were estimated, specific to a time period (1987-1995). Overall, black current smokers experienced the highest mortality rates.

Conclusions. Bayesian evidence synthesis is an effective method for estimation of cause-specific mortality rates, stratified by demographic factors.

Early Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Survival Is Dependent on Size: Positive Implications for Future Targeted Screening

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not experienced a meaningful mortality improvement for the past few decades. Successful screening is difficult to accomplish because most PDACs present late in their natural history, and current interventions have not provided significant benefit. Our goal was to identify determinants of survival for early PDAC to help inform future screening strategies.

METHODS

Early PDACs from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database (2000-2010) were analyzed. We stratified by size and included carcinomas in situ (Tis). Overall cancer-specific survival was calculated. A Cox proportional hazards model was developed and the significance of key covariates for survival prediction was evaluated.

RESULTS

A Kaplan-Meier plot demonstrated significant differences in survival by size at diagnosis; these survival benefits persisted after adjustment for key covariates in the Cox proportional hazards analysis. In addition, relatively weaker predictors of worse survival included older age, male sex, black race, nodal involvement, tumor location within the head of the pancreas, and no surgery or radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

For early PDAC, we found tumor size to be the strongest predictor of survival, even after adjustment for other patient characteristics. Our findings suggest that early PDAC detection can have clinical benefit, which has positive implications for future screening strategies.

Combined Biomarker and Computed Tomography Screening Strategies for Lung Cancer: Projections of Health and Economic Tradeoffs in the US Population

Background: Lung cancer screening with computed tomography (CT) of individuals who meet certain age and smoking history criteria is the current standard-of-care. Methods: Using a published simulation model, we compared outcomes associated with seven biomarker + CT screening strategies to CT screening alone using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services eligibility criteria. We assumed that the biomarker had conditionally independent performance; was used for first-line screening in some, or all, individuals screened; and could be extended to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services–ineligible smokers. Strategies differed by inclusion criteria (e.g., pack-years) and proportion of individuals for whom CT remained the first-line test. Each model run simulated a combined cohort of one million men and one million women born in 1950. Primary outcomes were cancer-specific mortality reduction and screening costs; biomarker costs were measured relative to CT. Efficiency frontiers identified optimal health and economic tradeoffs. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the stability of results. Results: Standard-of-care screening yielded an 8.3% cancer-specific mortality reduction in the simulated US population (screened + unscreened individuals). For a biomarker test with 75% sensitivity and 95% specificity, mortality reductions across biomarker + CT strategies ranged from 7.0% to 23.9%. If the biomarker’s cost was >0.86× that of CT, standard-of-care screening remained on the efficiency frontier, indicating that health and economic tradeoffs were equally (or more) efficient relative to all biomarker + CT strategies. Biomarker + CT strategy costs were principally driven by biomarker specificity; mortality reduction was driven by sensitivity. Conclusion: Combined biomarker + CT strategies have the potential to improve future lung cancer screening effectiveness in the United States and achieve economic efficiency that is greater than the current standard-of-care.

Reorganizing the System of Care Surrounding Laparoscopic Surgery: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using Discrete-Event Simulation

Purpose. To determine the cost-effectiveness of a proposed reorganization of surgical and anesthesia care to balance patient volume and safety. Methods. Discrete-event simulation methods were used to compare current surgical practice with a newmodular system in which patient care is handed off between 2 anesthesiologists. Ahealth care system’s perspective, using hospital and professional costs, was chosen for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes were patient throughput, flow time, wait time, and resource use. Sensitivity analyses were performed on staffing levels, mortality rates, process times, and scheduled patient volume. Results. The new strategy was more effective (average 4.41 patients/d [median = 5] v. 4.29 [median = 4]) and had similar costs (average cost/ patient/d = $5327 v. $5289) to the current strategywith an incremental cost-effectiveness of $318/additional patient treated/d. Surgical mortality rate must be >4% or hand-off delay >15min before the new strategy is no longermore effective. Conclusion.The proposed system is more cost-effective relative to current practice over a wide range of mortality rates, hand-off times, and scheduled patient volumes.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Primary Aldosteronism and Subtype Diagnosis in the Resistant Hypertensive Patients

BACKGROUND

Primary aldosteronism (PA) is a common and underdiagnosed disease with significant morbidity potentially cured by surgery. We aim to assess if the long-term cardiovascular benefits of identifying and treating surgically correctable PA outweigh the upfront increased costs in patients at the time patients are diagnosed with resistant hypertension (RH).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A decision-analytic model compares aggregate costs and systolic blood pressure changes of 6 recommended or implemented diagnostic strategies for PA in a simulated population of at-risk RH patients. We also evaluate a 7th "treat all" strategy wherein all patients with RH are treated with a mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonist without further testing at RH diagnosis. Changes in systolic blood pressure are subsequently converted into gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by applying National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data on concomitant risk factors to an existing cardiovascular disease simulation model. QALYs and lifetime costs were then used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the competing strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the strategy of computerized tomography (CT) followed by adrenal venous sampling (AVS) was $82,000/QALY compared with treat all. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for CT alone and AVS alone were $200,000/QALY and $492,000/QALY; the other strategies were more costly and less effective. Integrating differential patient-reported health-related quality of life adjustments for patients with PA, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for screening patients with CT followed by AVS, CT alone, and AVS alone were $52,000/QALY, $114,000/QALY, and $269,000/QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

CT scanning followed by AVS was a cost-effective strategy to screen for PA among patients with RH.

Hospital Evaluations by Social Media: A Comparative Analysis of Facebook Ratings among Performance Outliers

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of hospitals and health systems utilize social media to allow users to provide feedback and ratings. The correlation between ratings on social media and more conventional hospital quality metrics remains largely unclear, raising concern that healthcare consumers may make decisions on inaccurate or inappropriate information regarding quality.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which hospitals utilize social media and whether user-generated metrics on Facebook(®) correlate with a Hospital Compare(®) metric, specifically 30-day all cause unplanned hospital readmission rates.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted among all U.S. hospitals performing outside the confidence interval for the national average on 30-day hospital readmission rates as reported on Hospital Compare. Participants were 315 hospitals performing better than U.S. national rate on 30-day readmissions and 364 hospitals performing worse than the U.S. national rate.

MAIN MEASURES

The study analyzed ratings of hospitals on Facebook's five-star rating scale, 30-day readmission rates, and hospital characteristics including beds, teaching status, urban vs. rural location, and ownership type.

KEY RESULTS

Hospitals performing better than the national average on 30-day readmissions were more likely to use Facebook than lower-performing hospitals (93.3 % vs. 83.5 %; p < 0.01). The average rating for hospitals with low readmission rates (4.15 ± 0.31) was higher than that for hospitals with higher readmission rates (4.05 ± 0.41, p < 0.01). Major teaching hospitals were 14.3 times more likely to be in the high readmission rate group. A one-star increase in Facebook rating was associated with increased odds of the hospital belonging to the low readmission rate group by a factor of 5.0 (CI: 2.6-10.3, p <  0.01), when controlling for hospital characteristics and Facebook-related variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals with lower rates of 30-day hospital-wide unplanned readmissions have higher ratings on Facebook than hospitals with higher readmission rates. These findings add strength to the concept that aggregate measures of patient satisfaction on social media correlate with more traditionally accepted measures of hospital quality.

Five-year risk of interval-invasive second breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles.

METHODS

We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans.

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds.

METHODS

We used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy.

RESULTS

Programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility.

CONCLUSIONS

Current and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population.

Cost-effectiveness of multiplexed predictive biomarker screening in non-small-cell lung cancer

INTRODUCTION

Population-wide screening for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangements to inform cancer therapy in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is recommended by guidelines. We estimated cost-effectiveness of multiplexed predictive biomarker screening in metastatic NSCLC from a societal perspective in the United States.

METHODS

We constructed a microsimulation model to compare the life expectancy and costs of multiplexed testing and molecularly guided therapy versus treatment with cisplatin-pemetrexed (CisPem). All testing interventions included a two-step algorithm of concurrent EGFR mutation and ALK overexpression testing with immunohistochemistry followed by ALK rearrangement confirmation with a fluorescence in situ hybridization assay for immunohistochemistry-positive results. Three strategies were included: "Test-treat" approach, where molecularly guided therapy was initiated after obtainment of test results; "Empiric switch therapy," with concurrent initiation of CisPem and testing and immediate switch to test-result conditional treatment after one cycle of CisPem; and "Empiric therapy" approach in which CisPem was continued for four cycles before start of a tyrosine kinase inhibitor.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for "Test-treat" compared with treatment with CisPem was $136,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Both empiric treatment approaches had less favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. "Test-treat" and "Empiric switch therapy" yielded higher expected outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life years and life-years than "Empiric therapy." These results were robust across plausible ranges of model inputs.

CONCLUSION

From a societal perspective, our cost-effectiveness results support the value of multiplexed genetic screening and molecularly guided therapy in metastatic NSCLC.

Cost-effectiveness of follow-up of pulmonary nodules incidentally detected on cardiac computed tomographic angiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary nodules (PNs) are often detected incidentally during coronary computed tomographic (CT) angiography, which is increasingly being used to evaluate patients with chest pain symptoms. However, the efficiency of following up on incidentally detected PN is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We determined demographic and clinical characteristics of stable symptomatic patients referred for coronary CT angiography in whom incidentally detected PNs warranted follow-up. A validated lung cancer simulation model was populated with data from these patients, and clinical and economic consequences of follow-up per Fleischner guidelines versus no follow-up were simulated. Of the 3665 patients referred for coronary CT angiography, 591 (16%) had PNs requiring follow-up. The mean age of patients with PNs was 59±10 years; 66% were male; 67% had ever smoked; and 21% had obstructive coronary artery disease. The projected overall lung cancer incidence was 5.8% in these patients, but the majority died of coronary artery disease (38%) and other causes (57%). Follow-up of PNs was associated with a 4.6% relative reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality (absolute mortality: follow-up, 4.33% versus non-follow-up, 4.54%), more downstream testing (follow-up, 2.34 CTs per patient versus non-follow-up, 1.01 CTs per patient), and an average increase in quality-adjusted life of 7 days. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained were $154 700 to follow up the entire cohort and $129 800 per quality-adjusted life-year when only smokers were included.

CONCLUSIONS

Follow-up of PNs incidentally detected in patients undergoing coronary CT angiography for chest pain evaluation is associated with a small reduction in lung cancer mortality. However, significant downstream testing contributes to limited efficiency, as demonstrated by a high cost per quality-adjusted life-year, especially in nonsmokers.

Annual financial impact of well-differentiated thyroid cancer care in the United States

BACKGROUND

Well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC) is a prevalent disease, which is increasing in incidence faster than any other cancer. Substantial direct medical care costs are related to the diagnosis and treatment of newly diagnosed patients as well as the ongoing surveillance of patients who have a long life expectancy. Prior analyses of the aggregate health care costs attributable to WDTC in the United States have not been reported.

METHODS

A stacked cohort cost analysis was performed on the US population from 1985 to 2013 to estimate the number of WDTC survivors in 2013. Incidence rates, and cancer-specific and overall survival were based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Current and projected direct medical care costs attributable to the care of patients with WDTC were then estimated. Health care-related costs and event probabilities were based on Medicare reimbursement schedules and the literature.

RESULTS

Estimated overall societal cost of WDTC care in 2013 for all US patients diagnosed after 1985 is $1.6 billion. Diagnosis, surgery, and adjuvant therapy for newly diagnosed patients (41%) constitutes the greatest proportion of costs, followed by surveillance of survivors (37%), and nonoperative death costs attributable to thyroid cancer care (22%). Projected 2030 costs (in 2013 US dollars) based on current incidence trends exceed $3.5 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Health care costs of WDTC are substantial. Unlike other cancers, the majority of the cost is incurred in the initial and continuing phases of care. With the projected increasing incidence, population, and survival trends, costs will continue to escalate.

The ephemeral accountable care organization-an unintended consequence of the Medicare shared savings program

A fundamental element of health care payment reform under the Affordable Care Act is the development of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs). The ACO model employs shared-risk contracts to better align the interests of health care providers and payers with the intent of driving efficiency and quality in care. The Medicare Shared Savings Program is the most popular of the Medicare ACO programs, with over 200 health systems across the nation participating at this time. However, a pitfall in the way that the Medicare Shared Savings Program is structured, specifically the benchmarking and rebasing method, could make it difficult for even top-performing ACOs to achieve sustained success, thereby threatening the long-term viability of the program. In this paper, we present this pitfall to the radiology community as well as potential solutions that can be considered by CMS moving forward.

Consensus-oriented group peer review: a new process to review radiologist work output

The Joint Commission and other regulatory bodies have mandated that health care organizations implement processes for ongoing physician performance review. Software solutions, such as RADPEER™, have been created to meet this need efficiently. However, the authors believe that available systems are not optimally designed to produce changes in practice and overlook many important aspects of quality by excessive focus on diagnosis. The authors present a new model of peer review known as consensus-oriented group review, which is based on group discussion of cases in a conference setting and places greater emphasis on feedback than traditional systems of radiology peer review. By focusing on the process of peer review, consensus-oriented group review is intended to optimize performance improvement and foster group standards of practice. The authors also describe the software tool developed to implement this process of enriched peer review.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of coronary artery disease screening in HIV-infected men

BACKGROUND

HIV-infected patients are at increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cardiac screening for HIV-positive men at intermediate or greater CAD risk.

DESIGN

We developed a lifetime microsimulation model of CAD incidence and progression in HIV-infected men.

METHODS

Input parameters were derived from two HIV cohort studies and the literature. We compared no CAD screening with stress testing and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based strategies. Patients with test results indicating 3-vessel/left main CAD underwent invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and received coronary artery bypass graft surgery. In the stress testing + medication and CCTA + medication strategies, patients with 1-2-vessel CAD results received lifetime medical treatment without further diagnostics whereas in the stress testing + intervention and CCTA + intervention strategies, patients with these results underwent ICA and received percutaneous coronary intervention.

RESULTS

Compared to no screening, the stress testing + medication, stress testing + intervention, CCTA + medication, and CCTA + intervention strategies resulted in 14, 11, 19, and 14 quality-adjusted life days per patient and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 49,261, 57,817, 34,887 and 56,518 Euros per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), respectively. Screening only at higher CAD risk thresholds was more cost-effective. Repeated screening was clinically beneficial compared to one-time screening, but only stress testing + medication every 5 years remained cost-effective. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 83,000 €/QALY (∼ 100,000 US$/QALY), implementing any CAD screening was cost-effective with a probability of 75-95%.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening HIV-positive men for CAD would be clinically beneficial and comes at a cost-effectiveness ratio comparable to other accepted interventions in HIV care.

American Cancer Society lung cancer screening guidelines

Findings from the National Cancer Institute's National Lung Screening Trial established that lung cancer mortality in specific high-risk groups can be reduced by annual screening with low-dose computed tomography. These findings indicate that the adoption of lung cancer screening could save many lives. Based on the results of the National Lung Screening Trial, the American Cancer Society is issuing an initial guideline for lung cancer screening. This guideline recommends that clinicians with access to high-volume, high-quality lung cancer screening and treatment centers should initiate a discussion about screening with apparently healthy patients aged 55 years to 74 years who have at least a 30-pack-year smoking history and who currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. A process of informed and shared decision-making with a clinician related to the potential benefits, limitations, and harms associated with screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography should occur before any decision is made to initiate lung cancer screening. Smoking cessation counseling remains a high priority for clinical attention in discussions with current smokers, who should be informed of their continuing risk of lung cancer. Screening should not be viewed as an alternative to smoking cessation.

Patients with testicular cancer undergoing CT surveillance demonstrate a pitfall of radiation-induced cancer risk estimates: the timing paradox

PURPOSE

To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance-in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient's lifetime.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results.

RESULTS

As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks.

Hepatocellular cancer tumor growth and metabolic risk factors

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Background: Understanding hepatocellular cancer (HCC) tumor growth patterns is important for determining optimal treatment strategy. However, growth of untreated HCC tumors is unclear and prior studies are limited by older imaging technologies and small samples. We evaluated HCC growth patterns and predictors in a cohort of patients with serial modern computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods: Two radiologists retrospectively evaluated CT and MRI imaging for 56 patients with 83 HCC tumors with at least two images. Tumor Volume (TV) = 4/3* π *average short axis (X)*average long axis (Y)*X. To assess the relative change in size, normalized tumor volume (NTV) = TV/ baseline TV. Growth curves were fitted using an exponential growth model for tumor >2 observations. Univariate analysis explored clinical and pathologic predictors of NTV. A multivariate model was built by backward elimination of significant univariate variables. Results: Among 56 patients: 77% male, 96% cirrhotic, 50% Child-Pugh Class (CPC) B, 59% Hepatitis C, 32% obese, 37% diabetic, and 12% used metformin. Mean baseline and end TV were 98.8 cm3 and 213.0 cm3, respectively. Mean follow-up=8.3 months and mean number of serial images=3. Exponential TV growth was observed on visual inspection. Diabetes predicted lower NTV (i.e. slower TV growth) in univariate and multivariate analysis (Table). Obesity decreased the impact of diabetes. Conclusions: Diabetic patients had slower growing tumors than non-diabetics, even when clinical and pathologic factors were controlled. Tumor growth fit an exponential pattern. Further study of the impact of metabolic conditions on HCC tumor growth may provide insights into growth factors and identify potential treatment targets. [Table: see text]

Optimizing adjuvant treatment decisions for stage t2 rectal cancer based on mesorectal node size: a decision analysis

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to optimize treatment decisions for patients with suspected stage T2 rectal cancer on the basis of mesorectal lymph node size at magnetic resonance imaging.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A decision-analytic model was developed to predict outcomes for patients with stage T2 rectal cancer at magnetic resonance imaging. Node-positive patients were assumed to benefit from chemoradiation prior to surgery. Imperfect magnetic resonance imaging performance for primary cancer and mesorectal nodal staging was incorporated. Five triage strategies were considered for administering preoperative chemoradiation: treat all patients; treat for any mesorectal node >3, >5, and >7 mm in size; and treat no patients. If nodal metastases or unsuspected stage T3 disease went untreated preoperatively, postoperative chemoradiation was needed, resulting in poorer outcomes. For each strategy, rates of acute and long-term chemoradiation toxicity and of 5-year local recurrence were computed. Effects of input parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The optimal strategy depended on the outcome prioritized. Acute and long-term chemoradiation toxicity rates were minimized by triaging only patients with nodes >7 mm to preoperative chemoradiation (18.9% and 10.8%, respectively). A treat-all strategy minimized the 5-year local recurrence rate (5.6%). A 7-mm nodal triage threshold increased the 5-year local recurrence rate to 8.0%; when no patients were treated preoperatively, the local recurrence rate was 10.1%. With improved primary tumor staging, all outcomes could be further optimized.

CONCLUSIONS

Mesorectal nodal size thresholds for preoperative chemoradiation should depend on the outcome prioritized: higher size thresholds reduce chemoradiation toxicity but increase recurrence rates. Improvements in nodal staging will have greater impact if primary tumor staging can be improved.

Expanding patient-reported outcomes to oral health complications from systemic cancer therapy

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Background: Cross-disciplinary patient reported outcomes (PROs) assess the full range of side effects from systemic cancer therapy. For oral health complications, however, the validity of oral-health specific and generic health-related quality-of-life (QoL) instruments is unknown for cancer patients. This study evaluates the performance, measurement, and prediction characteristics of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP–14) and EQ–5D in cancer patients with bisphosphonate-associated Osteonecrosis of the Jaw (ONJ). Methods: 34 cancer patients assessed the QoL of their own ONJ with the OHIP–14 and evaluated the QoL of 4 standardized ONJ Health States with the EQ–5D, as previously published. For each instrument, the standard response mean (SRM), effect size (ES), and ability to distinguish minimally important differences (MID) were evaluated for ONJ compared to baseline (longitudinal responsiveness). Instrument MIDs (cross-sectional responsiveness) were also calculated. Performance of a published general dentistry algorithm to predict EQ–5D values from OHIP–14 results was tested. Results: The OHIP–14 and EQ-5D instruments demonstrated moderate to large longitudinal and cross-sectional responsiveness. Pain was one of the most responsive domains for both instruments. Ceiling/floor effects were most prominent for OHIP–14. A general dentistry algorithm did not adequately predict EQ–5D values for cancer patients. Conclusions: This study provides the first empirical evidence for the performance, measurement, and prediction characteristics of oral-health specific and generic QoL instruments for the oral health side effects of systemic cancer treatment. Instrument validity is supported for oral health complications in cancer patients. These results provide benchmarks for PROs at the intersection of oral medicine and surgery, dentistry, and oncology. [Table: see text]

Cost-effectiveness of alternating magnetic resonance imaging and digital mammography screening in BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers

BACKGROUND

Current clinical guidelines recommend earlier, more intensive breast cancer screening with both magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and mammography for women with breast cancer susceptibility gene (BRCA) mutations. Unspecified details of screening schedules are a challenge for implementing guidelines.

METHODS

A Markov Monte Carlo computer model was used to simulate screening in asymptomatic women who were BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Three dual-modality strategies were compared with digital mammography (DM) alone: 1) DM and MRI alternating at 6-month intervals beginning at age 25 years (Alt25), 2) annual MRI beginning at age 25 years with alternating DM added at age 30 years (MRI25/Alt30), and 3) DM and MRI alternating at 6-month intervals beginning at age 30 years (Alt30). Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (in 2010 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness (dollars per QALY gained). Additional outcomes included potential harms of screening, and lifetime costs stratified into component categories (screening and diagnosis, treatment, mortality, and patient time costs).

RESULTS

All 3 dual-modality screening strategies increased QALYs and costs. Alt30 screening had the lowest incremental costs per additional QALY gained (BRCA1, $74,200 per QALY; BRCA2, $215,700 per QALY). False-positive test results increased substantially with dual-modality screening and occurred more frequently in BRCA2 carriers. Downstream savings in both breast cancer treatment and mortality costs were outweighed by increases in up-front screening and diagnosis costs. The results were influenced most by estimates of breast cancer risk and MRI costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Alternating MRI and DM screening at 6-month intervals beginning at age 30 years was identified as a clinically effective approach to applying current guidelines, and was more cost-effective in BRCA1 gene mutation carriers compared with BRCA2 gene mutation carriers.

Rescreening of persons with a negative colonoscopy result: results from a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negative colonoscopy result.

DESIGN

Microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

Literature and data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.

TARGET POPULATION

Persons aged 50 years who had no adenomas or cancer detected on screening colonoscopy.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

No further screening or rescreening starting at age 60 years with colonoscopy every 10 years, annual highly sensitive guaiac fecal occult blood testing (HSFOBT), annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or computed tomographic colonography (CTC) every 5 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime cases of colorectal cancer, life expectancy, and lifetime costs per 1000 persons, assuming either perfect or imperfect adherence.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Rescreening with any method substantially reduced the risk for colorectal cancer compared with no further screening (range, 7.7 to 12.6 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] and 17.7 to 20.9 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence] vs. 31.3 lifetime cases per 1000 persons with no further screening). In both adherence scenarios, the differences in life-years across rescreening strategies were small (range, 30 893 to 30 902 life-years per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] vs. 30 865 to 30 869 life-years per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence]). Rescreening with HSFOBT, FIT, or CTC had fewer complications and was less costly than continuing colonoscopy.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were sensitive to test-specific adherence rates.

LIMITATION

Data on adherence to rescreening were limited.

CONCLUSION

Compared with the currently recommended strategy of continuing colonoscopy every 10 years after an initial negative examination, rescreening at age 60 years with annual HSFOBT, annual FIT, or CTC every 5 years provides approximately the same benefit in life-years with fewer complications at a lower cost. Therefore, it is reasonable to use other methods to rescreen persons with negative colonoscopy results.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute.

Coronary CT angiography versus standard evaluation in acute chest pain

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether an evaluation incorporating coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) is more effective than standard evaluation in the emergency department in patients with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndromes.

METHODS

In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned patients 40 to 74 years of age with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndromes but without ischemic electrocardiographic changes or an initial positive troponin test to early CCTA or to standard evaluation in the emergency department on weekdays during daylight hours between April 2010 and January 2012. The primary end point was length of stay in the hospital. Secondary end points included rates of discharge from the emergency department, major adverse cardiovascular events at 28 days, and cumulative costs. Safety end points were undetected acute coronary syndromes.

RESULTS

The rate of acute coronary syndromes among 1000 patients with a mean (±SD) age of 54±8 years (47% women) was 8%. After early CCTA, as compared with standard evaluation, the mean length of stay in the hospital was reduced by 7.6 hours (P<0.001) and more patients were discharged directly from the emergency department (47% vs. 12%, P<0.001). There were no undetected acute coronary syndromes and no significant differences in major adverse cardiovascular events at 28 days. After CCTA, there was more downstream testing and higher radiation exposure. The cumulative mean cost of care was similar in the CCTA group and the standard-evaluation group ($4,289 and $4,060, respectively; P=0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients in the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndromes, incorporating CCTA into a triage strategy improved the efficiency of clinical decision making, as compared with a standard evaluation in the emergency department, but it resulted in an increase in downstream testing and radiation exposure with no decrease in the overall costs of care. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ROMICAT-II ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01084239.).

Chapter 9: The MGH-HMS lung cancer policy model: tobacco control versus screening

The natural history model underlying the MGH Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) does not include the two-stage clonal expansion model employed in other CISNET lung models. We used the LCPM to predict numbers of U.S. lung cancer deaths for ages 30-84 between 1975 and 2000 under four scenarios as part of the comparative modeling analysis described in this issue. The LCPM is a comprehensive microsimulation model of lung cancer development, progression, detection, treatment, and survival. Individual-level patient histories are aggregated to estimate cohort or population-level outcomes. Lung cancer states are defined according to underlying disease variables, test results, and clinical events. By simulating detailed clinical procedures, the LCPM can predict benefits and harms attributable to a variety of patient management practices, including annual screening programs. Under the scenario of observed smoking patterns, predicted numbers of deaths from the calibrated LCPM were within 2% of observed over all years (1975-2000). The LCPM estimated that historical tobacco control policies achieved 28.6% (25.2% in men, 30.5% in women) of the potential reduction in U.S. lung cancer deaths had smoking had been eliminated entirely. The hypothetical adoption in 1975 of annual helical CT screening of all persons aged 55-74 with at least 30 pack-years of cigarette exposure to historical tobacco control would have yielded a proportion realized of 39.0% (42.0% in men, 33.3% in women). The adoption of annual screening would have prevented less than half as many lung cancer deaths as the elimination of cigarette smoking.

Falling prey to the sunk cost bias: a potential harm of patient radiation dose histories

Although patient dose histories will make valuable contributions to quality improvement and research initiatives, care must be taken to avoid misuse by physicians when making imaging decisions for individual patients.

Using radiation risk models in cancer screening simulations: important assumptions and effects on outcome projections

PURPOSE

To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer-specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer-specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk.

CONCLUSION

Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging.

Annual screening strategies in BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers: a comparative effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Although breast cancer screening with mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for breast cancer-susceptibility gene (BRCA) mutation carriers, there is no current consensus on the optimal screening regimen.

METHODS

The authors used a computer simulation model to compare 6 annual screening strategies (film mammography [FM], digital mammography [DM], FM and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] or DM and MRI contemporaneously, and alternating FM/MRI or DM/MRI at 6-month intervals) beginning at ages 25 years, 30 years, 35 years, and 40 years, and 2 strategies of annual MRI with delayed alternating DM/FM versus clinical surveillance alone. Strategies were evaluated without and with mammography-induced breast cancer risk using 2 models of excess relative risk. Input parameters were obtained from the medical literature, publicly available databases, and calibration.

RESULTS

Without radiation risk effects, alternating DM/MRI starting at age 25 years provided the highest life expectancy (BRCA1, 72.52 years, BRCA2, 77.63 years). When radiation risk was included, a small proportion of diagnosed cancers was attributable to radiation exposure (BRCA1, <2%; BRCA2, <4%). With radiation risk, alternating DM/MRI at age 25 years or annual MRI at age 25 years/delayed alternating DM at age 30 years was the most effective, depending on the radiation risk model used. Alternating DM/MRI starting at age 25 years also produced the highest number of false-positive screens per woman (BRCA1, 4.5 BRCA2, 8.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Annual MRI at age 25 years/delayed alternating DM at age 30 years is probably the most effective screening strategy in BRCA mutation carriers. Screening benefits, associated risks, and personal acceptance of false-positive results should be considered in choosing the optimal screening strategy for individual women.

Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000

BACKGROUND

Considerable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors that started in the mid-1950s on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000.

METHODS

A consortium of six groups of investigators used common inputs consisting of simulated cohort-wise smoking histories for the birth cohorts of 1890 through 1970 and independent models to estimate the number of US lung cancer deaths averted during 1975-2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior that began in the mid-1950s. We also estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted had tobacco control been completely effective in eliminating smoking after the Surgeon General's first report on Smoking and Health in 1964.

RESULTS

Approximately 795,851 US lung cancer deaths were averted during the period 1975-2000: 552,574 among men and 243,277 among women. In the year 2000 alone, approximately 70,218 lung cancer deaths were averted: 44,135 among men and 26,083 among women. However, these numbers are estimated to represent approximately 32% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted during the period 1975-2000, 38% of the lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 1991-2000, and 44% of lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 2000.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reflect the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a large impact of changing smoking behaviors on lung cancer deaths, lung cancer remains a major public health problem. Continued efforts at tobacco control are critical to further reduce the burden of this disease.