Assessing the performance of the integrated disease surveillance and response systems: a systematic review of global evidence

OBJECTIVES

Public health surveillance systems are critical for detecting and responding to health threats. This review aims to analyze international literature on the performance of these systems in terms of core, support, and attributes of surveillance system.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Following the preregistered protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42022366051), a systematic search was conducted on PubMed/MEDLINE, CINHAL, CABI, Web of Science, and Google Scholar for articles evaluating Public Health Surveillance System performance from inception to July 21, 2023. Various study designs were included, and quality assessment was performed. Thematic analysis categorized findings into key surveillance system functions.

RESULTS

Nine studies from different countries assessed core and supportive functions, as well as surveillance attributes. Performance varied among countries, with some excelling overall and others showing poor performance in specific areas. Many countries' surveillance systems had inadequate performance in key measures in terms of the core and supportive functions, as well as the attributes of the surveillance system.

CONCLUSION

This review shows significant variations in the performance of public health surveillance systems across countries. Further research is needed to understand underperformance reasons and inform global policymaking for strengthening surveillance systems.

Information sharing across institutions: Practices and barriers during public health emergencies in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Rapid, integrated information exchange between stakeholders is critical for effective emergency preparedness and response. However, many low- and middle-income countries face barriers to seamless data sharing. While information accessibility is recognized as important for evidence-based decision-making and resource allocation in Ethiopia, factors influencing current health information sharing practices among stakeholders involved in public health emergency management programs are unclear. This study aims to examine multi-sectoral stakeholders' perspectives and experiences with health data sharing during emergencies in Ethiopia, to identify opportunities and challenges influencing practices to strengthen the national public health emergency response system.

METHODS

A mixed-methods study was conducted between June and August 2023, involving a survey of 169 stakeholders actively involved in PHEM programs in Ethiopia as well as 23 in-depth interviews with key informants in senior leadership or advisory roles. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics in SPSS and thematic analysis of qualitative transcripts.

RESULTS

During emergencies, it was observed that data sharing between different entities occurred. Quantitative findings showed the predominant types of health data shared between stakeholders during emergencies included hospital data (109, 64.5 %), clinical case information, and laboratory results. Challenges limiting effective coordination included issues like limited functionality of digital health systems (75, 44 %), incompatible data formats (13, 34 %), and financial constraints (83, 49 %) and and socio-cultural barriers constrain current practices in Ethiopia. Qualitative interviews identified five themes around risk communication and inclusive alert systems. Experts emphasized tailored, multichannel outreach but noted infrastructure gaps and digital divides currently limit poorer communities' engagement.

CONCLUSION

While collaborative health information exchange during emergencies is recognized as important, systemic, financial, and socio-cultural barriers constrain current practices in Ethiopia. Targeted strategies including capacity building, investment in integrated data infrastructure, economic optimization through innovative financing models, trust-based relationship development, and locally relevant communication channels informed by stakeholder perspectives can optimize information accessibility, coordination, quality, and equity of healthcare services during public health emergencies.

Factors associated with depression among war-affected population in Northeast, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Depression is the most common mental health outcome of exposure to war-related traumatic stressors. Due to inter-communal conflict, Dessie City residents have experienced prolonged armed conflict in 2021. This conflict leads to widespread violence, negative impact on mental health, and large-scale forced migration. However, the problem is not properly addressed in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors of depression in the war-affected area in Dessie City, Ethiopia.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study design was conducted among 785 participants in 2022. The study subjects were selected using a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. The outcome measures used in the study were validated with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Data was entered using Epi-data version 3.1 and SPSS version 25 was used to analyze data. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were done to identify factors related to depression. In multivariable logistic regression variables with a p-value less than 0.05 were considered significant and, adjusted OR (AOR) with 95% CI was used to present the strength of the association.

RESULT

The prevalence of depression among participants was found to be 24.5% (95% CI,21.7, 27.5). In multivariable analysis, post-traumatic stress disorder (AOR = 2.79, 95% CI 1.76-4.43), middle-perceived life threats (AOR = 8.25, 95% CI 2.47-17.49), low social support (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.23-2.96) were variables significantly associated with depression.

CONCLUSION

This study found a high prevalence of depression among Dessie City residents. post-traumatic stress disorder, middle-perceived life threats, and low social support were associated with depression. Interventional strategies should be implemented to promote healing, resilience, and the overall well-being of individuals and communities. However, the findings underscore the need to address the current lack of mental health care resources in post-conflict populations.

Exposure to maternal cannabis use disorder and risk of autism spectrum disorder in offspring: A data linkage cohort study

This study aimed to investigate the association between pre-pregnancy, prenatal and perinatal exposures to cannabis use disorder (CUD) and the risk of autism spectrum disoder (ASD) in offspring. Data were drawn from the New South Wales (NSW) Perinatal Data Collection (PDC), population-based, linked administrative health data encompassing all-live birth cohort from January 2003 to December 2005. This study involved 222 534 mother-offspring pairs. . The exposure variable (CUD) and the outcome of interest (ASD) were identified using the 10th international disease classification criteria, Australian Modified (ICD-10-AM). We found a three-fold increased risk of ASD in the offspring of mothers with maternal CUD compared to non-exposed offspring. In our sensitivity analyses, male offspring have a higher risk of ASD associated with maternal CUD than their female counterparts. In conclusion, exposure to maternal CUD is linked to a higher risk of ASD in offspring, with a stronger risk in male offspring. Further research is needed to understand these gender-specific effects and the relationship between maternal CUD and ASD risk in children.

Impact of low birth weight on academic attainment during adolescence: A comprehensive retrospective cohort study using linked data

BACKGROUND

This study addresses a critical knowledge gap by exploring the intricate relationship between low birth weight (LBW) and the heightened risk of suboptimal academic achievement during adolescence through a comprehensive retrospective cohort design.

METHODS

In this registry-based cohort study, meticulously linked health and curriculum-based test data for individuals born in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 2003 and 2005 were employed. Birth weight data were carefully sourced from the NSW perinatal data collection (PDC). The educational performance of offspring was thoroughly evaluated using the National Assessment Program for Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) during grade 9, approximately at 14 years of age.

RESULTS

After rigorous adjustments for potential confounders, findings revealed a compelling narrative: LBW adolescents demonstrated an elevated susceptibility to not meeting national minimum standards across all domains, encompassing spelling [OR, 1.59 (95%CI 1.48-1.69)], writing [OR, 1.51 (95%CI 1.41-1.61)], reading [OR, 1.38 (95%CI 1.29-1.48)], and numeracy [OR, 1.52 (95%CI 1.40-1.63)]. Notably, LBW boys exhibited a more pronounced inclination towards diminished academic performance compared to their female counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

This comprehensive retrospective cohort study, based on linked data, unequivocally establishes LBW as significantly associated with an increased vulnerability to substandard educational achievement during adolescence. Particularly robust effects were observed in females across all outcomes. Aimed at investigating whether LBW serves as a predictive factor for later academic difficulties, this study underscores the imperative for the adoption and fortification of preventative and early intervention strategies to curtail the prevalence of LBW-associated academic underachievement in later adolescence.

Prenatal cannabis use and the risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorder in offspring: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

It is plausible that exposure to cannabis in-utero could be associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) during childhood and adolescence; however, mixed results have been reported. This study investigated whether there is an association between prenatal cannabis use and ADHD symptoms and ASD in offspring using a systematic review and meta-analysis methodology.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed/Medline, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, Psych-Info, and Google Scholar to identify relevant studies. The study protocol has been preregistered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (CRD42022345001), and the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS) was used to assess the methodological quality of included studies. An inverse variance weighted random effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the overall effect estimates from the included studies.

RESULTS

Fourteen primary studies, consisting of ten on ADHD and four on ASD, with a total of 203,783 participants, were included in this study. Our meta-analysis underscores an increased risk of ADHD symptoms and/or disorder [β = 0.39: 95 % CI (0.20-0.58), I2 = 66.85 %, P = 0.001)] and ASD [RR = 1.30: 95 % CI (1.03-1.64), I2 = 45.5 %, P = 0.14] associated with in-utero cannabis exposure in offspring compared to their non-exposed counterparts. Additionally, our stratified analysis highlighted an elevated risk of ADHD symptoms [β = 0.54: 95 % CI (0.26-0.82)] and a marginally significant increase in the risk of diagnostic ADHD among exposed offspring compared to non-exposed counterparts [RR = 1.13, 95 % CI (1.01, 1.26)].

CONCLUSION

This study indicated that maternal prenatal cannabis exposure is associated with a higher risk of ADHD symptoms and ASD in offspring.

The association between prenatal cannabis use and congenital birth defects in offspring: A cumulative meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between prenatal cannabis use and structural birth defects in exposed offspring.

METHODS

In line with the preregistered protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42022368623), we systematically searched PubMed/Medline, CINHAL, EMBASE, Web of Science, ProQuest, Psych-Info, and Google Scholar for published articles until 25 January 2024. The methodological quality of the included studies was appraised by the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). A meta-analysis was carried out to report the pooled effect estimates from the included studies. We further performed subgroup, leave-one-out sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses, which increased the robustness of our findings.

RESULTS

In this cumulative meta-analysis, thirty-six observational studies, consisting of 18 case-control and 18 cohort studies, with 230, 816 cases of birth defects and 18,049,013 controls (healthy babies) were included in the final analysis. We found that offspring exposed to maternal prenatal cannabis are at greater risks of a wide range of structural birth defects: cardiovascular/heart [OR = 2.35: 95 % CI 1.63 - 3.39], gastrointestinal [OR = 2.42: 95 % CI 1.61 - 3.64], central nervous system [OR = 2.87: 95 % CI 1.51 - 5.46], genitourinary [OR = 2.39: 95 % CI 1.11 - 5.17], and any (unclassified) birth defects [OR = 1.25: 95 % CI 1.12 - 1.41].

CONCLUSION

The findings from the current study suggest that maternal prenatal cannabis exposure is associated with a higher risk of different forms of structural birth defects in offspring. The findings underscore the significance of implementing preventive strategies, including enhanced preconception counselling, to address cannabis use during pregnancy and mitigate the risk of birth defects in offspring.

Umbrella Review of the Global Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Children and Adolescents

With the ever-increasing prevalence of mental health issues worldwide, a robust synthesis of existing epidemiological data on the prevalence of Conduct disorder (CD) in children and adolescents is needed to strengthen the knowledge base. This quantitative umbrella review aims to provide a robust synthesis of evidence on the prevalence of CD children and adolescents from meta-analytic systematic reviews. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, PsychINFO, and Scopus to identify relevant articles. The study protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023447620). The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated by using a Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR). Invariance variance weighted random-effect meta-analysis was performed to pool prevalence estimates from the included articles. Seven meta-analyses, encompassing 138 primary studies and slightly over 48 million CD cases were included in this umbrella review. The quantitative analysis of these studies found a pooled prevalence of CD 3.0% (95%CI 2.0-5%) in children and adolescents, based on random effect meta-analyses. In a stratified analysis, the prevalence estimate of CD was 2.6 times higher in boys compared to girls. Evidence from our quantitative umbrella review showed that the prevalence of CD is relatively high in children and adolescents with boys 2.6 times more likely to experience the disorders when compared to girls. Our findings underlie that attention should be given to preventing, identifying, and treating CD in children and adolescents.

Epidemiology of Khat (Catha edulis) Chewing in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and meta-analysis

In several countries, including Ethiopia, the shrub Catha edulis (khat) leaves are chewed for their stimulant properties. The present review summarizes evidence on the prevalence of khat use in Ethiopia and forwards recommendations for future action. PubMed, Embase, and Scopus were searched for studies examining the prevalence of Khat chewing among adolescent and/or adult populations in Ethiopia. A random-effects model was employed to estimate the pooled prevalence of khat chewing. Of the 568 articles identified, 26 were included in the review. The pooled prevalence of current and lifetime khat use was 19.55% (95% CI 14.62-25.64) and 26.14% (CI 17.66-36.87), respectively. The current prevalence of khat use was higher in men, 23.72% (CI 13.42-38.41), than in women 8.45% (CI 4.94-14.08). Lifetime prevalence of khat use was higher in men, 29.8% (CI: 22.80-37.99) than in women 13.02% (CI 8.96-18.56). The results of the meta-analysis demonstrated a higher odds of current (OR = 4.00, CI 2.80-5.73) and lifetime (OR = 2.84, CI 2.50-3.23) khat use in men than in women. Our review found a high prevalence of current (19.55%) and lifetime (26.14%) khat chewing in Ethiopia and demonstrated higher odds of current and lifetime khat use in men than in women. Awareness creation and integrated management of khat use problems at the primary health-care level is highly recommended.

The global prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children and adolescents: An umbrella review of meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Emerging epidemiological data suggest that hundreds of primary studies have examined the prevalence of ADHD in children and adolescents and dozens of systematic view and meta-analyses studies have been conducted on the subject. The purpose of this umbrella review is to provide a robust synthesis of evidence from these systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, PsychINFO, and Scopus to find pertinent studies. The study was preregistered with PROSPERO (CRD42023389704). The quality of the studies was assessed using a Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR). Prevalence estimates from the included studies were pooled using invariance variance weighted random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Thirteen meta-analytic systematic reviews (588 primary studies) with 3,277,590 participants were included in the final analysis. A random effect meta-analysis of these studies showed that the global prevalence of ADHD in children and adolescents was 8.0 % (95%CI 6.0-10 %). The prevalence estimate was twice higher in boys (10 %) compared to girls (5 %). Of the three subtypes of ADHD, the inattentive type of ADHD (ADHD-I) was found to be the most common type of ADHD followed by the hyperactive (ADHD-HI) and the combined types (ADHD-C).

CONCLUSION

Findings from our compressive umbrella review suggest that ADHD is highly prevalent in children and adolescents with boys twice more likely to experience the disorder than girls. Our results underpin that priority should be given to preventing, early identifying, and treating ADHD in children and adolescents.

Prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults: Umbrella review of evidence generated across the globe

BACKGROUND

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a class of neurodevelopmental disorders which is commonly diagnosed in school-age children, but it can occur in any age group. To provide a robust synthesis of published evidence on the prevalence of ADHD in adults, we conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

METHODS

The review was guided by preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA). We searched PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, and Scopus to retrieve pertinent studies. The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023389704). A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) was used to assess the quality of the included studies. A random-effects model was used to perform a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Five systematic reviews and meta-analyses (57 unique primary studies) with data on 21,142,129 adult participants were eligible for inclusion in this umbrella review. Inverse variance weighted random effect meta-analysis of these studies indicated that the pooled prevalence of ADHD in adults was 3.10% (95%CI 2.60-3.60%). ADHD-I (the inattentive type of ADHD) remained the commonest type of ADHD, followed by ADHD-HI (the hyperactive type) and ADHD-C (the combined type).

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that ADHD is relatively high in adults, with ADHD-I remaining the most common subtype. Attention should be given to preventing, reducing, identifying, and managing ADHD in adults.

The perinatal and childhood outcomes of children born to Indigenous women with mental health problems: A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Maternal mental health problems are common during the perinatal period and have been associated with several negative outcomes in children. However, few studies have examined the associations between maternal mental health problems and offspring outcomes among Indigenous people, and the findings across these studies have been inconsistent. This scoping review examined the birth and childhood (≤12 years) health and development outcomes of the children of Indigenous women with mental health problems.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley and based on the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Eight databases were searched electronically for studies examining the associations between any perinatal maternal mental health problems and birth and childhood outcomes among the Indigenous populations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. Two authors reviewed studies for inclusion. A narrative synthesis approach was adopted.

RESULTS

Of 2,836 records identified, 10 were eligible. One of three studies evaluating maternal depression and anxiety problems found a negative (adverse) association with birth and childhood behavioural outcomes. Six of seven studies that examined the associations between maternal substance use disorder (mainly alcohol use disorder) and several birth and childhood outcomes found at least one negative association.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Maternal substance use disorder appears to be associated with adverse birth and childhood outcomes among some Indigenous populations. However, there is preliminary evidence for the other common maternal mental health problems. Further research is critically required to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of maternal mental health problems on the birth and childhood outcomes.

Paternal Depression and Risk of Depression Among Offspring: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Existing epidemiological evidence is equivocal as to whether paternal depression poses a consequent risk of depression in offspring; meta-analysis of findings can help inform preventative intervention efforts.

Objective

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies examining the association between paternal and offspring depression.

Data Sources

Embase, PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched between inception and December 2022.

Study Selection

The review included all observational studies that investigated the association between paternal and offspring depression and 10 606 studies were initially identified.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines. The review protocol was prospectively registered in PROSPERO. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were pooled using inverse variance weighted random effect meta-analysis. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome of interest was offspring depression measured using recognized depression assessment tools.

Results

Sixteen observational studies published between 2002 and 2021 were included, with a combined sample of 7 153 723 father-child dyads. A meta-analysis of these studies showed that paternal depression was associated with an increased risk of depression in offspring (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.17-1.71). The risk was higher among offspring exposed to paternal depressive disorders (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.28-2.12) than those exposed to depression as defined by a nonclinical symptom scale (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.06-1.19). Sensitivity analysis revealed consistent pooled estimates ranging from 1.35 (95% CI, 1.12-1.62) to 1.45 (95% CI, 1.18-1.78).

Conclusions and Relevance

Paternal depression was associated with subsequent offspring depression. This finding shows the intergenerational transmission of mental health problems and suggests that mental health interventions benefit not only the patient but also the family as a whole, including both parents.

Cognitive disorder and associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal service at Dilla University Referral Hospital, 2022

Introduction

Cognition is defined as the mental activity or process of learning information and understanding through reason, experience, and the senses. In Sub-Saharan African nations like Ethiopia, such assessments of a pregnant mother's mental health during antenatal care are uncommon procedures. Instead, there is a greater focus on the physical well-being of the woman and her fetus. As a result, this study aimed to evaluate the cognitive deficits and related factors in a pregnant women attending an antenatal care service.

Methods

This hospital-based cross-sectional study included 415 pregnant women who were receiving antenatal care at Dilla University Referral Hospital in Dilla, Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia. In this study, respondents were chosen using systematic random sampling, and study participants were interviewed using administered questions to gather pertinent data. This study used the OSLO Social Support Scale, the Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test, and the Mini-Mental Status Examination to assess the social support, cognitive status, and current substance use history of a respondent. Descriptive statistics including frequencies, graphs, and percentages were used to describe the results. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the connection between independent factors and the outcome variable at a 95 percent confidence level and p < 0.05.

Result

Among all respondents who came for antenatal care visits, only 24 (5.8%) were unmarried (single, divorced, widowed). The mean age of respondents was 26 years old and 155 (37.3%) had attended secondary school. Variables such as strong social support [0.11 (0.03-0.23), p < 0.02], being a follower of orthodox religion [0.24 (0.12-0.39), p < 0.04], ≥5,000 Ethiopian birr monthly income [0.28 (0.17-0.48), p < 0.02], age >26 years old [1.23 (1.14-2.54), p < 0.04], unplanned pregnancy [2.78 (1.45-4.32), p < 0.02], and rural residence [3.90 (2.23-7.34), p < 0.04] were significantly associated with cognitive impairment at 95% confidence interval and a p-value <0.05.

Conclusion

This study found that pregnant women who attended antenatal care experienced a significant reduction in cognitive disorders. Additionally, this study revealed adjustable factors such as unwanted pregnancy, social support, and religiosity. It is preferable to check a pregnant woman's cognitive condition at antenatal services and to follow-up on each additional visit.

Suicidality and homelessness: prevalence and associated factors of suicidal behaviour among homeless young adults in Southern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Research indicates that homelessness is associated with an increased risk of suicide. While street homelessness is a global problem, it is a disproportionately serious concern in low- and middle-income countries such as Ethiopia. Despite their high risk of suicidal thoughts and attempts, there has been limited research on this subject among homeless young people in Ethiopia. Therefore, we assessed the prevalence and factors contributing to suicidal behaviour among homeless young people in the southern region of this country.

METHODS

We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study from 15 June to 15 August 2020 involving 798 homeless young adults in four southern Ethiopian towns and cities. The Suicide Behaviour Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) was used to assess suicidal behaviour. Data were coded and entered into Epi-Data version 7 and analysed using SPSS version 20. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with suicidal behaviour. Variables with a p-value of < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. An adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was determined to indicate the association's strength.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of suicidal behaviour among young homeless individuals was 38.2% (95% CI: 34.8%, 41.5%). The lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation, planning and attempt was 10.7% (95% CI: 8.6-12.9%), 5.1% (95% CI: 3.6-6.6%) and 3% (95% CI: 1.9-4.3%), respectively. A longer duration of homelessness (1-2 years) (AOR = 2.244, 95% CI: 1.447-3.481), stressful life events (AOR = 1.655, 95% CI: 1.132-2.418) and the stigma associated with homelessness (AOR = 1.629, 95% CI: 1.149-1.505) were significantly associated with suicidal behaviour.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study indicate that suicide is a serious public health problem among homeless young people in southern Ethiopia. We have found associations between suicidal behaviour and stressful events, homelessness lasting for one to two years and stigma. Our study suggests that policymakers and programme planners need to develop a strategy for preventing, detecting and managing suicidal behaviour among street-dwelling homeless young adults, a vulnerable and understudied population. A community-based suicide prevention campaign is also essential for street-dwelling homeless young people in Ethiopia.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antiepileptic Drug Adherence and Its Associated Factors among Epilepsy Patients on Follow-ups at Amanuel Mental Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Medication adherence is a fundamental determinant of effective treatment. However, people with epilepsy have poor compliance with their treatment because of the chronic nature of the disease. Limited studies have been conducted to address antiepileptic medication adherence in Africa, including Ethiopia. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess antiepileptic drug adherence and its asociated factors among patients with epilepsy attending outpatient department of Amanuel Mental Specialized Hospital.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was conducted on 439 patients with epilepsy in Amanuel Mental Specialized Hospital. Medication adherence reporting scale-5 (MARS-5) was used to assess adherence to antiepileptic drugs. The Oslo social support, Jacob perceived stigma scale, and hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS) were the instruments used to assess associated factors. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis models were fitted. Then, the adjusted unstandardized beta (β) coefficient at a 95% confidence level was used.

RESULTS

The mean(SD) score of antiepileptic medication adherence was 16.38(±3.76) with 95%CI:(16.03, 16.72). Depressive symptoms (β= -1.35, 95% CI: (-2.04, -0.65)), anxiety symptoms (β=-1.12,95%CI:(-1,79,-0.44), perceived stigma (β= -1.64, 95% CI:-2.16,-1.12), being single (β=-0.67, 95%CI:-1.20,-0.14), presence of seizure per month(β=-2.11,95% CI: (-2.81,-1.41) and antiepileptic drug adverse effect(β=-0.07,95%CI:-0.11,-0.03) were factors associated with anti-epileptic medication adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the mean score of adherence to antiepileptic drugs was poor as compared to other settings. Antiepileptic medication adherence screening tool should be included in the patient's treatment protocol.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of parental mental health problems on the educational outcomes of their offspring: Findings from the Raine Study

OBJECTIVES

There is limited evidence on the impact of parental mental health problems on offspring's educational outcomes. We investigated the impact of maternal anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as paternal emotional problems on the educational outcomes of their adolescent and young adult offspring.

METHODS

We used data from a longitudinal birth cohort recruited between 1989 and 1991 in Australia (the Raine Study). The Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale was used to assess maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms, and a self-reported question was used to measure paternal mental health problems. Both were assessed when the offspring was aged 10 years. Outcomes included offspring's self-reported education attainment-not completing year 10 at age 17, not attending tertiary education at ages 17 and 22 and primary caregiver's reports of offspring's academic performance at age 17.

RESULTS

A total of 1033, 1307 and 1364 parent-offspring pairs were included in the final analysis exploring the association between parental mental health problems and offspring's academic performance at school, completing year 10 and attending tertiary education, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, the offspring of mothers with anxiety symptoms were 3.42 times more likely than the offspring of mothers without anxiety symptoms to have poor or below-average academic performance (odds ratio = 3.42; 95% confidence interval = [1.31, 8.92]) and more than 2 times more likely to not attend tertiary education (odds ratio = 2.55; 95% confidence interval = [1.10, 5.5.88]) and not to have completed year 10 (odds ratio = 2.13; 95% confidence interval = [1.04, 4.33]). We found no significant associations between maternal depressive symptoms or paternal emotional problems and offspring educational attainment.

CONCLUSION

Maternal anxiety symptoms, but not depression and paternal emotional problems, are associated with poor educational attainment and achievement in adolescent offspring. The findings highlight that efforts to improve the outcomes of offspring of mothers with anxiety could focus on educational attainment.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

The Global Landscape of the Burden of Depressive Symptoms/Major Depression in Individuals Living With HIV/AIDs and Its Effect on Antiretroviral Medication Adherence: An Umbrella Review

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV/AIDS have a higher rate of depression/depressive symptoms and this highly affects antiretroviral medication adherence. Therefore, much stronger evidence weighing the burden of depressive symptoms/major depression is warranted.

METHODS

We investigated PubMed, Scopus, Psych-Info, and Embase databases for systematic review studies. A PRISMA flow diagram was used to show the search process. We also used the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist scores. A narrative review and statistical pooling were accompanied to compute the pooled effect size of outcome variables.

RESULTS

Overall, 8 systematic review studies addressing 265 primary studies, 4 systematic review studies addressing 48 primary studies, and six systematic review studies addressing 442 primary studies were included for depressive symptoms, major depression, and their effect on medication non-adherence, respectively. Globally, the average depressive symptoms prevalence using the random effect model was 34.17% (24.97, 43.37). In addition, the average prevalence of major depressive disorder was obtained to be 13.42% (10.53, 16.31). All of the 6 included systematic review studies reported a negative association between depressive symptoms and antiretroviral medication non-adherence. The pooled odds ratio of antiretroviral medication adherence among patients with depressive symptoms was 0.54 (0.36, 0.72) (I ² = 0.0%, p = 0.487).

CONCLUSION

Globally, the prevalence of depressive symptoms and major depression is high. There existed a high degree of association between depressive symptoms and antiretroviral medication non-adherence. So, focused intervention modalities should be developed and implemented.

Depression and anxiety among quarantined population during the COVID-19 outbreak in central Ethiopia

Evidence suggests that quarantine might have a wide-ranging, substantial, and long-lasting negative psychological impact especially when the necessary preventive measures are not taken. This study assessed the prevalence and associated factors of depression and anxiety among quarantined population during the COVID-19 outbreak in central Ethiopia. A community-based cross-section study was conducted among individuals under quarantine from June 5 to July 5, 2020, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was used to assess depression and anxiety. Binary logistic regression analysis (multivariate analysis) was used to identify the potential determinants of depression and anxiety. A total of 297 participants were included in the study which makes the response rate 90.8%. The prevalence of anxiety, depression, and co-morbid anxiety and depression were 21.5%, 70.7%, and 15.8% respectively. In our multivariable analyses, stressful life events (AOR 2.61, 95%CI (1.46, 4.67)), spent time on sleeping (AOR 1.97, 95% CI (1.08, 3.62)), and believing that COVID-19 could be prevented by wearing a glove (AOR 0.30, 95% CI (0.11, 0.81)) showed a statistically significant association with anxiety, whereas being married (AOR 2.67, 95% CI (1.37, 5.22)), had stressful life event in the last six months (AOR 1.44, 95% CI (1.44, 5.25)) and spending of time by sleeping during the quarantine (AOR 1.97, 95% CI (1.42, 6.19)) predicted depression. In conclusion, the current study result indicated that a considerable proportion of individuals who were under quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic have experienced psychological disturbances, such as anxiety and depression. The results suggest that attention needs to be given to mitigate mental health problems in the quarantined population during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and poor academic performance in adolescent offspring: A registry data-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested associations between maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) and a range of adverse outcomes in offspring. However, evidence reporting adverse effects on poor academic performance in adolescence is scant.

METHODS

This register-based cohort study used linked data obtained from New South Wales (NSW) educational and health registries in Australia. MSDP was assessed using self-reports of smoking during pregnancy. Offspring's educational performance was assessed using the National Assessment Program for Literacy and numeracy (NAPLAN), when students were in grade 9 and approximately aged 14 years. We used multivariable logistic regression models to explore associations.

RESULTS

Adolescent offspring exposed to MSDP were at an increased risk of substandard academic performance in all domains, with the highest odds for spelling [OR, 3.12 (95%CI 2.98-3.26)] followed by writing [OR, 2.97 (95%CI 2.84-3.11)], reading [OR, 2.49 (95%CI 2.37-2.62)], and numeracy [OR, 2.43 (95%CI 2.30-2.58)]. In our sex-stratified analysis, MSDP displayed stronger effects on the academic performance of female offspring in all domains.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings showed that MSDP was associated with an increased risk of reduced academic performance in adolescent offspring. The different effects of MSDP on the academic performance of male and female offspring is a new finding, which needs further investigation.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of Maternal Depressive Symptoms During the Perinatal Period With Oppositional Defiant Disorder in Children and Adolescents

IMPORTANCE

An association between perinatal maternal depression and risk of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) in offspring has not been established. Identifying early determinants of ODD can help inform preventative intervention efforts.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between maternal perinatal depressive symptoms and the risk of ODD in offspring aged 7 to 15 years.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based longitudinal birth cohort study used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), in Bristol, UK. All pregnant women residents in Avon, UK, with expected delivery dates from April 1, 1991, to December 31, 1992, were invited to participate in the study. The study cohort ranged from approximately 8000 (at 7 years of age) to 4000 (at 15 years of age) mother-offspring pairs. Data were analyzed from November 2020 to July 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Maternal depressive symptoms were measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) antenatally at 18 and 32 weeks of gestation and postnatally at 8 weeks and 8 months. This study primarily used a cutoff score of 12 or more on the EPDS to identify mothers with symptoms of depression, and the continuous EPDS scores were used to confirm the results of the main analyses. Offspring ODD at 7, 10, 13, and 15 years of age were diagnosed using the parent-reported Development and Well-Being Assessment.

RESULTS

Of 7994 mother-offspring pairs for whom data were available on offspring ODD at 7 years, 4102 offspring (51.3%) were boys. The mean (SD) age of mothers was 28.6 (4.6) years. Maternal antenatal depressive symptoms (measured at 32 weeks of gestation) were associated with offspring ODD (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.33-2.31). Offspring of mothers with postpartum depressive symptoms at 8 weeks and 8 months were more than 2 times more likely to have a diagnosis of ODD over time (AOR at 8 weeks, 2.24 [95% CI, 1.74-2.90]; AOR at 8 months, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.55-2.68]), and maternal persistent depressive symptoms were associated with a 4-fold increased risk of offspring ODD (AOR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.98-6.52).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that perinatal depressive symptoms are associated with ODD in offspring and further support the need for early identification and management of prenatal and postnatal depression in women of childbearing age.

Suicidal ideation and associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care in Jimma medical center, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Suicidal ideation (SI) among pregnant women is a major public health concern worldwide and is associated with a higher risk of completed suicide. However, there are limited studies that determined the prevalence and the potential determinants of suicidal ideation in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the prevalence of suicidal ideation and associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care in Jimma, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 423 pregnant women attending Jimma medical center in Southwest, Ethiopia. A systematic random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Suicidal ideation assessed using the Suicidality Module of the World Mental Health survey initiative version of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Other tools used are EPDS, Abuse Assessment Scale (AAS), DASS -21, PSS, Maternity Social Support Scale (MSSS), and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). A multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to explore the potential determinants of suicidal ideation among the participants.

RESULT

The prevalence of SI among women who are on antenatal care was found to be 13.3% (95% CI (10.1,16.4). In multivariable analysis, marital status with lack of cohabiting partners (AOR = 2.80,95%CI:1.23,6.37), history of abortion (AOR = 2.45,95% CI:1.03,5.93), having depression (AOR = 4.28,95% CI:1.75,10.44),anxiety(AOR = 2.99,95% CI:1.24,7.20), poor sleep quality (AOR = 2.85,95% CI:1.19,6.79), stress (AOR = 2.50, 95% CI:1.01,5.67), and intimate partner violence (AOR = 2.43, 95% CI:1.07,5.47) were found to be significant predictors of suicidal ideation.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of SI among pregnant women was found to be huge. Lack of cohabiting partners, previous history of abortion, depression, anxiety, intimate partner violence, poor sleep quality, and stress were variables that are independent predictors of suicidal ideation. Screening and interventions of antenatal SI are needed.

The risk of anxiety symptoms in young adult offspring of parents with mental health problems: Findings from the raine study

Introduction

Previous research has suggested that offspring of parents with mental health problems, including depression and anxiety, are at an increased risk of developing anxiety disorders. Few studies have investigated this relationship in young adults.

Objectives

To investigate the risk of anxiety symptoms in young adult offspring of parents with mental health problems

Methods

We used data from the 1989-1991 cohort of the Western Australian Pregnancy (Raine) Study, which is a multi-generational birth cohort study following mothers and their offspring from pregnancy to 28 years of age. The Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS) was used to assess maternal anxiety and depression whereas a self-reported questionnaire was used to assess paternal emotional problems. Anxiety symptoms among offspring at age 20 were measured by using the short form of the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS 21). A multivariable negative binomial regression model was used to quantify the associations.

Results

After adjustment, maternal anxiety [RR 1.60 (95% CI 1.11-2.32)] and paternal emotional problems [RR 1.32 (95%CI 1.03-1.68)] were associated with an increased risk of anxiety in offspring at age 20 years. Conversely, maternal depressive symptoms [RR 1.04 (95%CI 0.84-1.32)] were not associated with an increased risk of anxiety in offspring.

Conclusions

The present study suggests that maternal anxiety and paternal emotional problems were associated with an increased risk of anxiety in young adult offspring. However, maternal depressive symptoms were not associated with an increased risk of anxiety in the offspring. The findings suggest the potential for targeted screening and intervention of anxiety problems in the offspring.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Maternal perinatal depressive symptoms and oppositional-defiant disorder in children and adolescents

Introduction

There is evidence that maternal perinatal depression is associated with adverse neurodevelopmental and mental health outcomes in children. No study has yet examined the association between maternal depressive symptoms during pregnancy and the postpartum period and the risk of oppositional-defiant disorder (ODD) in children and adolescents.

Objectives

This study aimed to investigate whether there is an association between perinatal depressive symptoms and the risk of ODD in offspring from age 7 to 15 years.

Methods

We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a population-based prospective birth cohort study in the UK. Offspring ODD at the age of 7, 10, 13 and 15 years were assessed by using parental reports the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA). We applied Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) modelling to examine associations across the four time points.

Results

Maternal postnatal depressive symptoms were associated with more a two-fold increased risk of ODD overall. Third trimester depressive symptoms (measured at 32 weeks of gestation) increased risk of ODD by 72%. Offspring of mothers who had depressive symptoms both during pregnancy and in the first year of postpartum period have a four-fold increased risk of ODD over time (_adjusted OR = 3.59 (1.98-6.52).

Conclusions

Offspring of mothers with perinatal depressive symptoms are at an increased risk of developing behavioural disorders.

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

BACKGROUND

Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.

METHODS

Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk of conduct and oppositional defiant disorder symptoms in offspring of parents with mental health problems: Findings from the Raine Study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological data indicate that paternal and maternal mental health difficulties are predictors of conduct disorder (CD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) in offspring. We tested the association between maternal anxiety and depressive symptoms and paternal emotional problems with CD and ODD symptoms in adolescent offspring aged 17.

METHODS

Data was from the Raine Study, a birth cohort study based in Western Australia. Offspring CD and ODD symptoms at age 17 years were measured using the DSM-oriented scales of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS) was used to assess maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms, and a self-reported questionnaire measured paternal emotional problems when the offspring was 10 years. Negative binomial regression model was used to explore associations.

RESULTS

Adjusting for potential confounding factors, we found an increased risk of CD symptoms in the offspring of mothers with anxiety [RR = 1.76 (95%CI; 1.08-2.86)], depressive [RR = 1.40 (95%CI; 1.01-1.95)], and comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms [RR = 2.24 (95%CI 1.35-3.72)]. We also found an increased risk of ODD symptoms in offspring of mothers with depressive [RR = 1.24 (95%CI 1.02-1.52)], but not anxiety symptoms [RR = 1.23 (95%CI 0.92-1.67)]. No associations were seen with paternal emotional problems.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that adolescents whose mothers reported anxiety, depressive, and comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms had a higher risk of CD and ODD symptoms at age 17. The findings have implications for preventive strategies.

The prevalence of depression among adolescent with HIV/AIDS: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Depression is particularly common among adolescents with HIV/AIDS and has been associated with disruption of the important developmental process, subsequently leading to a wide range of negative mental, physical and psychosocial consequences, as well as poor quality of life in those population groups. Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, there are no prior systematic reviews and meta-analytic studies that determined the prevalence of depression among adolescents with HIV/AIDS.

METHOD

We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science for relevant literature until May 2020. A random-effect meta-analysis was used to pool prevalence rates from individual studies. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed to identify the source of heterogeneities and to compare the prevalence estimates across the groups. The Joanna Briggs Institute's quality assessment checklist was used to evaluate the quality of the included studies. Cochran's Q and the I² tests were used to assess heterogeneity between the studies.

RESULTS

A total of ten studies were included for the final analysis, with 2642 adolescents living with HIV/AIDS. Our final meta-analysis showed that more than a quarter of adolescents with HIV had depression [26.07% (95% CI 18.92-34.78)]. The prevalence was highest amongst female adolescents (32.15%) than males (25.07%) as well as amongst the older adolescents aged 15-19 years (37.09%) than younger adolescents aged 10-14 years (29.82%).

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that a significant proportion of adolescents with HIV had depression, indicating the imperativeness of intervention strategies to alleviate the suffering and possibly reduce the probable negative ramifications.

Associations of maternal and paternal mental health problems with offspring anxiety at age 20 years: Findings from a population-based prospective cohort study

Epidemiological studies indicate that children of parents with mental health problems are at an increased risk of developing anxiety disorders. Few studies have investigated this relationship in young adults. Participants were from the Raine Study, which is a multi-generational birth cohort study in Australia. Maternal anxiety and depression in late childhood were assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-42), and paternal lifetime mental health problems were assessed using a self-reported questionnaire. The short form of DASS-42 (DASS-21) was used to assess anxiety symptoms among offspring at age 20. Negative binomial regression model was used to quantify the association. Data were available for 1,220 mother-offspring and 1,190 father-offspring pairs. After adjusting for potential confounders, we found an increased risk of anxiety in young adult offspring exposed to maternal anxiety in late childhood and paternal lifetime mental health problems. However, we observed no increased risks of anxiety in offspring exposed to maternal depressive symptoms. Our sensitivity analysis based on the log-binomial model (binary outcome) as well as the linear model (log-transformed data) confirmed the robustness of the main results. Our findings suggest there can be value to consider and apply targeted screening and intervention programs of anxiety in the young adult offspring with parental mental health problems.

The risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in the adolescent offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive symptoms. Findings from the raine study

Introduction

While there exist some studies that explored the association between maternal anxiety and depressive symptoms and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in early and late childhood, studies exploring the risk in late adolescence are however lacking.

Objectives

This is the first study that aimed to investigate the association between maternal anxiety, depressive, as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, and the risk of ADHD symptoms in late adolescence.

Methods

We used data from the Raine Study, a birth cohort in Western Australia. The Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS) was used to assess maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms when the child was aged 10. Whereas, the DSM-oriented scales of the child behavior checklist (CBCL) was used to assess ADHD symptoms offspring in adolescents aged 17. Log-binomial regression model was used to explore the associations.

Results

After adjusting for relevant covariates, we found an increased risk of ADHD symptoms in the adolescent children of mothers with anxiety [RR 2.84 (95%CI 1.18-6.83)] as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms [RR 5.60 (95%CI 3.02-10.37)]. No association was seen with maternal depressive symptoms.

Conclusions

This study suggested that adolescent offspring of mothers with anxiety as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms had an increased risk of ADHD symptoms. Early detection and management for ADHD symptoms in children of mothers with anxiety and comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms are needed.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

The Prevalence and Associated Factors of Suicidal Attempt Among Medical Students in Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Although suicidal attempt is common among medical students, little is known about the prevalence estimates and the potential determining factors in low and middle-income countries including Ethiopia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the prevalence and associated factors of suicidal attempts among medical students in Ethiopia. Institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted among 423 medical students selected by using a stratified random sampling technique. The World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess suicidal attempts among the study participants. Binary and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the potential determinants of suicidal attempt. Odds ratios (OR) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated to assess the strength of association. In this study, the prevalence of suicidal attempt among medical students was found to be 8.2% (95% CI 5.7, 11.4%). In the adjusted model, the variables associated with suicidal attempt were female sex, history of chronic medical illness, excessive course load, psychological distress, poor social support, and daily internet use for more than 3 h. In the present study, the prevalence of suicide attempts was relatively high (8.2%). Early screening is necessary to identify suicidal attempt and the potential determining factors to prevent death as well as adverse educational outcomes during the medical education program.

The risk of anxiety disorders in children of parents with severe psychiatric disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have investigated the association between parental severe psychiatric disorders and anxiety disorder risk in offspring, but the findings across these studies have been inconsistent.

METHODS

Using the PRISMA guideline, a rigorous electronic and manual search was conducted in four electronic databases EMBASE, PubMed, PsychINFO, and Scopus to identify relevant studies. All observation studies (cohort and case-control studies) that examined the association between parental severe psychiatric disorders and the risk of offspring anxiety disorders were identified. Summary risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were synthesized using a fixed and random effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies were included in the final analysis (14 cohort and 11 case-control studies). The meta-analysis showed that parental severe psychiatric disorder was associated with a higher risk of social phobia, panic, obsessive-compulsive, post-traumatic stress, separation anxiety, and generalized anxiety disorders in the offspring. When considering specific severe psychiatric disorders in parents as exposure, parental bipolar disorder was associated with an increased risk of obsessive-compulsive and generalized anxiety disorders in the offspring, whereas parental depressive disorder was associated with an increased risk of social phobia, separation anxiety, and generalized anxiety disorders in the offspring. Conversely, parental schizophrenia was not associated with offspring anxiety disorder CONCLUSION: This review suggests that the offspring of parents with severe psychiatric, bipolar, and depressive disorders are at an increased risk of developing a range of anxiety disorders. These findings suggest that targeted early screening and intervention programs are imperative in exposed offspring.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of depressive symptoms, dysthymia and major depressive disorders among homeless people

OBJECTIVES

To assess the global prevalence estimates of depressive symptoms, dysthymia and major depressive disorders (MDDs) among homeless people.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Databases including PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were systematically searched up to February 2020 to identify relevant studies that have reported data on the prevalence of depressive symptoms, dysthymia and MDDs among homeless people.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Original epidemiological studies written in English that addressed the prevalence of depressive problems among homeless people.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

A random-effect meta-analysis was performed to pool the prevalence estimated from individual studies. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were employed to compare the prevalence across the groups as well as to identify the source of heterogeneities. The Joanna Briggs Institute's quality assessment checklist was used to measure the study quality. Cochran's Q and the I² test were used to assess heterogeneity between the studies.

RESULTS

Forty publications, including 17 215 participants, were included in the final analysis. This meta-analysis demonstrated considerably higher prevalence rates of depressive symptoms 46.72% (95% CI 37.77% to 55.90%), dysthymia 8.25% (95% CI 4.79% to 11.86%), as well as MDDs 26.24% (95% CI 21.02% to 32.22%) among homeless people. Our subgroup analysis showed that the prevalence of depressive symptoms was high among younger homeless people (<25 years of age), whereas the prevalence of MDD was high among older homeless people (>50 years of age) when compared with adults (25-50 years).

CONCLUSION

This review showed that nearly half, one-fourth and one-tenth of homeless people are suffering from depressive symptoms, dysthymia and MDDs, respectively, which are notably higher than the reported prevalence rates in the general population. The findings suggest the need for appropriate mental health prevention and treatment strategies for this population group.

The impact of pre-pregnancy BMI on maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms during pregnancy and the postpartum period: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported conflicting results on the association between maternal pre-pregnancy weight and adverse mental health outcomes during pregnancy and the postpartum period. This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to provide the current state of evidence concerning the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and the risk of antenatal and postnatal depressive and anxiety symptoms.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus databases were searched from their inception through August 31, 2020. Observational studies assessing the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and risk of depression and/anxiety during pregnancy and the postpartum period were included. We used random-and quality-effects meta-analyses to estimate risks. Subgroup, sensitivity and meta-regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Pre-pregnancy obesity was associated with a 33% increased risk of antenatal depressive symptoms (pooled OR = 1.33 [95% CI; 1.20-1.48]). The pooled ORs for the association between underweight, overweight and obesity and postnatal depressive symptoms were 1.71 [95% CI; 1.27 - 2.31], 1.14 [95% CI; 1.0 - 1.30] and 1.39 [95% CI; 1.23 - 1.57], respectively. Low to moderate level of between-study heterogeneity was noted. The association between pre-pregnancy BMI and perinatal anxiety symptoms remain uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-pregnancy obesity was associated with an increased risk of maternal depressive symptoms both in pregnancy and the postpartum period. The findings suggest that women with both high and low pre-pregnancy weight may benefit from receiving mental health screening and interventions during prenatal care.

Misdiagnosis, detection rate, and associated factors of severe psychiatric disorders in specialized psychiatry centers in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

There are limited studies on the prevalence of misdiagnosis as well as detection rates of severe psychiatric disorders in specialized and non-specialized healthcare settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to determine the prevalence of misdiagnosis and detection rates of severe psychiatric disorders including schizophrenia, schizoaffective, bipolar, and depressive disorders in a specialized psychiatric setting.

METHOD

In this cross-sectional study, a random sample of 309 patients with severe psychiatric disorders was selected by systematic sampling technique. Severe psychiatric disorders were assessed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID). The potential determinates of misdiagnosis were explored using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for the potential confounding factors.

RESULT

This study revealed that more than a third of patients with severe psychiatric disorders were misdiagnosed (39.16%). The commonly misdiagnosed disorder was found to be a schizoaffective disorder (75%) followed by major depressive disorder (54.72%), schizophrenia (23.71%), and bipolar disorder (17.78%). Among the patients detected with the interview by SCID criteria, the highest level of the correct diagnosis was recorded in the medical record for schizophrenia (76.29%) followed by bipolar (72.22%), depressive (42.40%), and schizoaffective (25%) disorders with detection rate (sensitivity) of 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.84), 0.42 (95% CI 0.32-0.53), 0.72 (95% CI 0.60-0.84), and 0.25 (95% CI 0.09-0.41), respectively for schizophrenia, depressive, bipolar, and schizoaffective disorders. Patients with bipolar disorder were more likely to be misdiagnosed as having schizophrenia (60%), whereas schizophrenic patients were more likely to be misdiagnosed as having bipolar disorder (56.25%) and patients with depressive disorders were more likely to be misdiagnosed as having schizophrenia (54.72%). Having a diagnosis of schizoaffective and depressive disorders, as well as suicidal ideation, was found to be significant predictors of misdiagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that roughly four out of ten patients with severe psychiatric disorders had been misdiagnosed in a specialized psychiatric setting in Ethiopia. The highest rate of misdiagnosis was observed for schizoaffective disorder (3 out of 4), followed by major depressive disorder (1 out of 2), schizophrenia (1 out of 4), and bipolar disorders (1 in 5). The detection rates were highest for schizophrenia, followed by bipolar, depressive, and schizoaffective disorders. Having a diagnosis of schizoaffective and depressive disorders as well as suicidal ideation was found to be significant predictors of misdiagnosis.

Maternal and paternal mental health problems and the risk of offspring depression in late adolescence: findings from the Raine study

BACKGROUND

There are limited studies on the risk of depressive symptoms in adolescent offspring exposed to parental mental health problems in middle childhood.

AIM

We investigated the association between parental mental health problems, particularly paternal emotional problems and maternal symptoms of anxiety and depression, and the risk of depressive symptoms in adolescent offspring aged 17.

METHODS

The study included 995 parent-offspring pairs from the 1989-91 birth cohort (the Raine Study) in Western Australia. Log-binomial regression was used to assess the associations.

RESULTS

An increased risk of depression symptoms was observed in the adolescent offspring of mothers with depressive [RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13-1.86] as well as anxiety symptoms [RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87].Compared to those non-exposed, offspring whose mothers reported comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms were more likely to have developed depressive symptoms by late adolescence [RR 1.63, 95%CI 1.11-2.38]. An increased risk of depressive symptoms was also seen in the offspring of fathers with emotional problems [RR 1.29, 95%CI 1.01-1.53].

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest an increased risk of depressive symptoms in the adolescent offspring of parents with mental health problems, specifically paternal emotional problems (29%) and maternal anxiety (43%), depression (45%), as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms (63%).

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Risk of Disruptive Behavioral Disorders in the Offspring of Parents with Severe Psychiatric Disorders

Inconsistent results of the association between severe psychiatric disorders (SPD) in parents and the risk of disruptive behavioral disorders (DBD) including conduct disorders (CD) and oppositional defiant disorders (ODD) in the offspring have been found by previous epidemiologic studies. PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and Scopus were searched for relevant studies. Fourteen studies met the predefined criteria for inclusion. A meta-analysis of the included studies revealed an elevated risk of DBD in the offspring of parents with SPD, bipolar, and depressive disorders. Our further analysis considering the specific DBD as an outcome showed that parents with SPD are at an increased risk of having a child with ODD as well as CD. Moreover, the current meta-analysis found that the children of parents with bipolar disorder were also at increased risk of ODD and CD. Parental schizophrenia and depressive disorders were not associated with higher risks of ODD and CD in the offspring.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder among Homeless People

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is common among homeless people and is associated with an increased risk of mortality from suicide, medical causes, and drug-related problems. However, there are no previous systematic review and meta-analysis studies that reported the consolidated magnitude of PTSD among homeless people. A literature search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, and Scopus to discover pertinent studies that determined the prevalence of PTSD among the homeless. Articles were evaluated by titles, abstracts, and full-text. Comprehensive meta-analysis software was used to conduct the meta-analysis. Subgroup and sensitivity analysis were performed and Cochran's Q- and the I² test were used to assess heterogeneity. The evidence of publication bias was evaluated by using Egger's test and visual inspection of the symmetry in funnel plots. From the total, 19 studies with 20,364 participants across seven countries were included in the final analysis. Our meta-analysis revealed that the pooled prevalence of PTSD among homeless people was 27.38% (95% CI; 21.95-33.57). In our subgroup analysis, we found that the prevalence of PTSD was considerably high as measured by the screening instrument (35.93%) than the diagnostic instrument (23.57% %). The prevalence of PTSD among homeless showed a significant variation by the location of the studies, the instruments used to measure PTSD as well as the quality of the included studies. This review showed that the pooled prevalence estimate of PTSD among homeless peoples was remarkably high (27.38%). Early screening and treatment of PTSD among homeless peoples are warranted to alleviate suffering.