The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances by care home residents are potentially avoidable. Health Call Digital Care Homes is an app-based technology that aims to streamline residents' care by recording their observations such as vital parameters electronically. Observations are triaged by remote clinical staff. This study assessed the effectiveness of the Health Call technology to reduce unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of health outcomes and economic impact based on an intervention. The study involved 118 care homes across the North East of UK from 2018 to 2021. Routinely collected NHS secondary care data from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust was linked with data from the Health Call app. Three outcomes were modelled monthly using Generalised Linear Mixed Models: counts of emergency attendances, emergency admissions and length of stay of emergency admissions. A similar approach was taken for costs. The impact of Health Call was tested on each outcome using the models.

FINDINGS

Data from 8,702 residents were used in the analysis. Results show Health Call reduces the number of emergency attendances by 11% [6-15%], emergency admissions by 25% [20-39%] and length of stay by 11% [3-18%] (with an additional month-by-month decrease of 28% [24-34%]). The cost analysis found a cost reduction of £57 per resident in 2018, increasing to £113 in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

The introduction of a digital technology, such as Health Call, could significantly reduce contacts with and costs resulting from unplanned secondary care usage by care home residents.

Real world evidence supports waking salivary cortisone as a screening test for adrenal insufficiency

OBJECTIVE

Worldwide, adults and children are at risk of adrenal insufficiency largely due to infectious diseases and adrenal suppression from use of anti-inflammatory glucocorticoids. Home waking salivary cortisone is an accurate screening test for adrenal insufficiency, it has potential to reduce costs, and patients prefer it to the adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) (synacthen) stimulation test. We carried out a service evaluation of home waking salivary cortisone in clinical care to identify implementation barriers.

DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Service evaluation in a centre where 212 patients referred for adrenal insufficiency had a waking salivary cortisone. Problems encountered during testing were recorded and patient feedback, via focus groups, collected.

RESULTS

From all patients providing a waking salivary cortisone 55% had a normal test, 23% adrenal suppression, and 22% an equivocal result requiring a clinical centre ACTH stimulation test. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) for the time of the saliva sample was 07:40 (07:00-08:40). The median (IQR) days between collection and (i) delivery to local laboratory was 1 (0.25-2) day; (ii) reporting by local laboratory was 13 (11-18) days. Patients considered the test is "easy to do" and preferred it to the inpatient ACTH stimulation test. The principal challenge to clinical implementation was results reporting to clinicians due to delays at the local laboratory.

CONCLUSIONS

This service evaluation provides real-world evidence that home waking salivary cortisone is an effective, practical screening test for adrenal insufficiency. It identified key barriers to testing implementation that need to be addressed when introducing the test to a health service.

Diet, cellular, and systemic homeostasis control the cycling of potassium stable isotopes in endothermic vertebrates

The naturally occurring stable isotopes of potassium (41K/39K, expressed as δ41K) have the potential to make significant contributions to vertebrate and human biology. The utility of K stable isotopes is, however, conditioned by the understanding of the dietary and biological factors controlling natural variability of δ41K. This paper reports a systematic study of K isotopes in extant terrestrial endothermic vertebrates. δ41K has been measured in 158 samples of tissues, biofluids, and excreta from 40 individuals of four vertebrate species (rat, guinea pig, pig and quail) reared in two controlled feeding experiments. We show that biological processing of K by endothermic vertebrates produces remarkable intra-organism δ41K variations of ca. 1.6‰. Dietary δ41K is the primary control of interindividual variability and δ41K of bodily K is +0.5-0.6‰ higher than diet. Such a trophic isotope effect is expected to propagate throughout trophic chains, opening promising use for reconstructing dietary behaviors in vertebrate ecosystems. In individuals, cellular δ41K is related to the intensity of K cycling and effectors of K homeostasis, including plasma membrane permeability and electrical potential. Renal and intestinal transepithelial transports also control fractionation of K isotopes. Using a box-modeling approach, we establish a first model of K isotope homeostasis. We predict a strong sensitivity of δ41K to variations of intracellular and renal K cycling in normal and pathological contexts. Thus, K isotopes constitute a promising tool for the study of K dyshomeostasis.

mTOR-dependent loss of PON1 secretion and antiphospholipid autoantibody production underlie autoimmunity-mediated cirrhosis in transaldolase deficiency

Transaldolase deficiency predisposes to chronic liver disease progressing from cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Transition from cirrhosis to hepatocarcinogenesis depends on mitochondrial oxidative stress, as controlled by cytosolic aldose metabolism through the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP). Progression to HCC is critically dependent on NADPH depletion and polyol buildup by aldose reductase (AR), while this enzyme protects from carbon trapping in the PPP and growth restriction in TAL deficiency. Although AR inactivation blocked susceptibility to hepatocarcinogenesis, it enhanced growth restriction, carbon trapping in the non-oxidative branch of the PPP and failed to reverse the depletion of glucose 6-phosphate (G6P) and liver cirrhosis. Here, we show that inactivation of the TAL-AR axis results in metabolic stress characterized by reduced mitophagy, enhanced overall autophagy, activation of the mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR), diminished glycosylation and secretion of paraoxonase 1 (PON1), production of antiphospholipid autoantibodies (aPL), loss of CD161+ NK cells, and expansion of CD38+ Ito cells, which are responsive to treatment with rapamycin in vivo. The present study thus identifies glycosylation and secretion of PON1 and aPL production as mTOR-dependent regulatory checkpoints of autoimmunity underlying liver cirrhosis in TAL deficiency.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Prospective Clinical Adoption of Artificial Intelligence for Organ Contouring in Head and Neck Radiation Treatment Planning

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Patients that undergo head and neck (H&N) radiation therapy (RT) require laborious delineation of organs-at-risk (OARs) on computed tomography (CT) scans in a treatment planning system (TPS) to minimize radiation to normal tissue. This task can be completed rapidly and accurately with recently developed artificial intelligence-based semantic segmentation models. The current study aims to deploy and evaluate a strategy for improving clinical practice with this technology.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Deep learning models were trained and tested with CT scans and OAR contours from previous H&N RT cases at our clinic. Two medical physicists vetted the models and selected a 2.5D U-Net for further implementation. The model was embedded in a dedicated server at the hospital, programmed to read H&N CT scans staged for import into the TPS, generate auto-contours, and write them into a TPS-compatible format made available alongside the scan. In the pilot implementation, the auto-contouring service was utilized for more than 60 cases, prospectively. The auto-contours were quantitatively evaluated against the treatment-approved contours to determine how much modification was performed by the clinical team.

RESULTS

The 2.5D U-Net selected for clinical integration segments 21 OARs in less than 3 minutes per scan. Across all the prospective cases, the mean Dice score and mean 95th percentile Hausdorff distance (mm) between the auto-contour and treatment-approved contour for each of the 21 OARs were as follows, respectively: brainstem (0.93, 1.94), optic chiasm (0.70, 2.96), left cochlea (0.69, 2.37), right cochlea (0.68, 2.44), esophagus (0.88, 2.46), left globe (0.93, 1.50), right globe (0.93, 1.63), glottis (0.91, 2.13), larynx (0.93, 2.76), mandible (0.90, 4.86), left optic nerve (0.78, 1.64), right optic nerve (0.82, 1.65), oral cavity (0.86, 8.46), left parotid gland (0.91, 2.78), right parotid gland (0.91, 2.39), pharynx (0.85, 2.39), spinal cord (0.87, 2.27), left submandibular gland (0.85, 3.46), right submandibular gland (0.83, 3.69), left temporal lobe (0.94, 2.20), and right temporal lobe (0.95, 2.09). The auto-contours for the optic chiasm, optic nerves, cochleas, and submandibular glands differed substantially from the final contours, a finding corroborated by the clinical team; the rest were clinically acceptable with minor or no edits necessary.

CONCLUSION

The proposed strategy provides a sophisticated starting point for treatment planning that has garnered overall favorable feedback from the participating radiation oncologists and dosimetrists. Consequently, the technique is being extended to other treatment sites.

Mitigation of IMRT/SBRT Treatment Planning Errors on the First Biology-Guided Radiotherapy System Using FMEA within Six Sigma Framework

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Utilize the Six Sigma methodology and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) to prevent and mitigate errors in IMRT/SBRT treatment planning with the first clinical installation of biology-guided radiotherapy (BgRT) system.

MATERIALS/METHODS

The Six Sigma approach consisted of five phases: Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control. The Define-Measure-Analyze phases consisted of process mapping and an FMEA of the IMRT/SBRT treatment planning process on the BgRT system. The multidisciplinary team outlined the workflow process and identified the failure modes associated with the plan check items using AAPM TG-100 recommendations. Items with the highest average risk priority numbers (RPN) and Severity ≥7 were prioritized for automation using the treatment planning system scripting API (ESAPI). The Improve phase consisted of developing ESAPI scripts prior to the launch of the BgRT system to improve efficiency and safety. In the Control phase, the FMEA ranking was re-evaluated 1-year post-clinical launch.

RESULTS

Overall, 100 plan check items were identified where the RPN values ranged from 10.2 to 429.0. Fifty of these items (50%) were suitable for automation within ESAPI. Of the 10 highest-risk items (Table 1), 8 were suitable for automation. Based on the results of the FMEA, two scripts were developed: Planning Assistant used by the planner during preparation for planning and the Automated Plan Check used by the planner and the plan checker during plan preparation for treatment. At 1-year post-clinical launch, the scripts were used for 80 patients successfully treated in 1747 fractions. During this period only 3 errors were reported: omitted bolus during treatment, nomenclature error in the BgRT system plan prescription, and dose tracking plan not approved following physics plan check. The average RPN pre-scripts was 138.0 compared to the average post-scripts RPN of 47.8 (p < 0.05) signifying a safer process.

CONCLUSION

Implementing new technology into the clinic can be an error-prone process where the likelihood of errors increases with increasing pressure to implement the technology quickly. To limit errors in the clinical implementation of the first BgRT system, the Six Sigma methodology was utilized to identify failure modes, establish quality control checks, and re-evaluate these checks 1-year post-clinical launch.

Discriminating Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Using Latent Neuroimaging and Neuropsychological Profiles in Active-Duty Military Service Members

OBJECTIVE

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) commonly occur among military Service Members and Veterans and have heterogenous, but also overlapping symptom presentations, which often complicate the diagnoses of underlying impairments and development of effective treatment plans. Thus, we sought to examine whether the combination of whole brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) structural measures with neuropsychological performance can aid in the classification of military personnel with mTBI and PTSD.

METHODS

Active-Duty US Service Members ( n = 156; 87.8% male) with a history of mTBI, PTSD, combined mTBI+PTSD, or orthopedic injury completed a neuropsychological battery and T1- and diffusion-weighted structural neuroimaging. Cortical, subcortical, ventricular, and WM volumes and whole brain fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD) were calculated. Latent profile analyses were performed to determine how the GM and WM indicators, together with neuropsychological indicators, classified individuals.

RESULTS

For both GM and WM, respectively, a 4-profile model was the best fit. The GM model identified greater ventricular volumes in Service Members with cognitive symptoms, including those with a diagnosis of mTBI, either alone or with PTSD. The WM model identified reduced FA and elevated RD in those with psychological symptoms, including those with PTSD or mTBI and comorbid PTSD. However, contrary to expectation, a global neural signature unique to those with comorbid mTBI and PTSD was not identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings demonstrate that neuropsychological performance alone is more robust in differentiating Active-Duty Service Members with mTBI and PTSD, whereas global neuroimaging measures do not reliably differentiate between these groups.

The relevance of false positive acid phosphatase reactions indicative of the presence of seminal fluid from oral and vaginal samples

The Body Fluid Forum of the Association of Forensic Science Providers recognised concerns raised by forensic practitioners regarding the lack of data to inform on the incidence of significant AP (Acid Phosphatase) reactions from vaginal and oral samples, i.e. those which might be misinterpreted as indicating the presence of semen. This is particularly relevant in the light of appeal court rulings regarding the need for data to support evaluations. This paper presents collaborative data on the nature and incidence of AP reactions from vaginal and oral swabs provided by donors. The results demonstrate that caution is required with mid to strong purple AP reactions from direct testing of oral swabs and with mid purple reactions from vaginal swabs. The use of a Bayesian approach to assist with the provision of opinions regarding the presence of seminal fluid is highlighted.

Use of urgent, emergency and acute care by mental health service users: A record-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

People with serious mental illness experience worse physical health and greater mortality than the general population. Crude rates of A&E attendance and acute hospital admission are higher in people with serious mental illness than other hospital users. We aimed to further these findings by undertaking a standardised comparison of urgent and emergency care pathway use among users of mental health services and the general population.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort analysis using routine data from 2013-2016 from the CUREd dataset for urgent and emergency care contacts (NHS 111, ambulance, A&E and acute admissions) and linked mental health trust data for Sheffield, England. We compared annual age- and sex-standardised usage rates for each urgent and emergency care service between users of mental health services and those without a recent history of mental health service use.

RESULTS

We found marked differences in usage rates for all four urgent and emergency care services between the general population and users of mental health services. Usage rates and the proportion of users were 5-6 times and 3-4 times higher in users of mental health services, respectively, for all urgent and emergency care services. Users of mental health services were often more likely to experience the highest or lowest acuity usage characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Current users of mental health services were heavily over-represented among urgent and emergency care users, and they made more contacts per-person. Higher service use among users of mental health services could be addressed by improved community care, more integrated physical and mental health support, and more proactive primary care. A complex pattern of service use among users of mental health services suggests this will need careful targeting to reduce avoidable contacts and optimise patient outcomes.

Home Waking Salivary Cortisone to Screen for Adrenal Insufficiency

At-Home Cortisone Screen for Adrenal InsufficiencyThis prospective study tested the use of home waking salivary cortisone levels to predict adrenal insufficiency. Salivary cortisone had diagnostic accuracy similar to that of a standard adrenocorticotropin stimulation test and was preferred by patients.

Cytosolic aldose metabolism contributes to progression from cirrhosis to hepatocarcinogenesis

Oxidative stress modulates carcinogenesis in the liver; however, direct evidence for metabolic control of oxidative stress during pathogenesis, particularly, of progression from cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been lacking. Deficiency of transaldolase (TAL), a rate-limiting enzyme of the non-oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP), restricts growth and predisposes to cirrhosis and HCC in mice and humans. Here, we show that mitochondrial oxidative stress and progression from cirrhosis to HCC and acetaminophen-induced liver necrosis are critically dependent on NADPH depletion and polyol buildup by aldose reductase (AR), while this enzyme protects from carbon trapping in the PPP and growth restriction in TAL deficiency. Both TAL and AR are confined to the cytosol; however, their inactivation distorts mitochondrial redox homeostasis in opposite directions. The results suggest that AR acts as a rheostat of carbon recycling and NADPH output of the PPP with broad implications for disease progression from cirrhosis to HCC.

A systematic review of the global prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Studies reporting on the population burden of people living with shoulder pain show wide heterogeneity in terms of case definition, study samples, and occurrence. This systematic review aims to summarize evidence pertaining to the prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain, including variability based on sex and geography. We also explored the potential influence of methodological limitations and important sources of heterogeneity (case definition and reference period) on reported estimates of shoulder pain prevalence.

DATABASES AND DATA TREATMENT

The study protocol was registered on Prospero under CRD42021243140. We searched EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Medline from inception to March 2021. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment was conducted by a team of three researchers. We performed a narrative synthesis of the data, using forest plots to summarize study findings, and stratified data presentation to explore the potential association of risk of bias, case definition, and reference period with estimates of prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain.

RESULTS

We obtained data from 61 studies reporting data from high-, middle- and low-income countries. The overall risk of bias was low, with most rated as "low-risk" and no studies rated as "high-risk". The community prevalence of shoulder pain varied widely across the countries included in our review, with a median of 16% (range 0.67 to 55.2%). Longer reference periods were typically associated with higher prevalence estimates. Primary care prevalence ranged from 1.01 to 4.84% (median 2.36%). Estimates were generally higher for women than men and were higher in high-income nations. The incidence of shoulder pain ranged from 7.7 to 62 per 1000 persons per year (median 37.8 per 1000 persons per year). Risk of bias did not clearly explain variability in study findings, but there was considerable variation in study samples, methods used, and a relative absence of data from low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review demonstrates that a significant proportion of the population across the world will experience shoulder pain daily, yearly, and throughout a lifetime. Regional gaps in evidence and methodological inconsistencies must be addressed in order to establish a more definitive global burden.

1502 Geospatial visualisation of emergency department attendance rates and their associations with deprivation and non-urgent attendances

Aims, Objectives and Background

Attendances at emergency departments in England continue to increase above the capacity of the urgent and emergency care system. There is significant variability in the rates of attendance at emergency departments across different localities. The aim of this study is to model the association of deprivation and non-urgent attendances with locality-based emergency department attendance rates. The secondary aim is to create an interactive data visualisation tool to engage stakeholders, clinicians, and the public with the research.

Method and Design

We undertook a retrospective, observational study using routinely collected emergency department attendance data from Yorkshire and the Humber (population 5.4 million) between January 2013 and March 2017. We calculated average annual age and sex standardised attendance rates at emergency departments for small localities known as lower layer super output areas.

The association between emergency department attendance rates, deprivation and non-urgent attendances was examined using multivariable linear and logistic regression models, which were adjusted for travel time to the nearest emergency department.

The data was visualised to create an interactive choropleth map using R.

Abstract 1502 Figure 1

Screenshot of interactive data visualisation tool showing age and sex standardised annual emergency department attendance rates in Yorkshire and the Humber

Results and Conclusion

The analytical sample included 6,389,383 attendances across 2,880 localities, with a median age and sex standardised annual emergency department attendance rate of 308 per 1000 population (interquartile range 130).

The fully adjusted linear regression model was significant (Adjusted R2 = 0.648, F (7, 2872)=757, p<0.001 ). Higher locality-based emergency department attendance rates were significantly predicted by each increasing decile of deprivation (β =14.8, p=0.002), each minute less of travel time to the emergency department (β = 7.86, p<0.001) and each percent greater proportion of low acuity attendances (β = 8.61, p<0.001).

A large proportion of the variability in emergency department attendance rates in different geographical areas can be explained by deprivation levels and proportion of non-urgent attendances. This provides an opportunity for targeted interventions to reduce emergency department attendances.

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated.

A descriptive study of samples sizes used in agreement studies published in the PubMed repository

INTRODUCTION

A sample size justification is required for all studies and should give the minimum number of subjects to be recruited for the study to achieve its primary objective. The aim of this review is to describe sample sizes from agreement studies with continuous or categorical endpoints and different methods of assessing agreement, and to determine whether sample size justification was provided.

METHODS

Data were gathered from the PubMed repository with a time interval of 28^th September 2018 to 28^th September 2020. The search returned 5257 studies of which 82 studies were eligible for final assessment after duplicates and ineligible studies were excluded.

RESULTS

We observed a wide range of sample sizes. Forty-six studies (56%) used a continuous outcome measure, 28 (34%) used categorical and eight (10%) used both. Median sample sizes were 50 (IQR 25 to 100) for continuous endpoints and 119 (IQR 50 to 271) for categorical endpoints. Bland-Altman limits of agreement (median sample size 65; IQR 35 to 124) were the most common method of statistical analysis for continuous variables and Kappa coefficients for categorical variables (median sample size 71; IQR 50 to 233). Of the 82 studies assessed, only 27 (33%) gave justification for their sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the importance of a sample size justification, we found that two-thirds of agreement studies did not provide one. We recommend that all agreement studies provide rationale for their sample size even if they do not include a formal sample size calculation.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Successful outcomes using Long Acting Buprenorphine (LAB - Buvidal) to treat Codeine, Tramadol and other Opioid Analgesia Dependencies (OAD) in Wales during the Pandemic

Introduction

Long Acting Buprenorphine (LAB) – Buvidal (CAM2038) – is a prolonged release treatment for opioid dependence in adults. Its extensive use was funded by Welsh Government during the pandemic in Wales and it has been found to be a significantly better than oral medications in improving quality of life, possibly through providing allostatic craving and anxiety reduction

Objectives

This is a case series of 10 patients who were referred to Community Addiction Services in North and South West Wales with OAD.

Methods

Patients were mainly using Codeine or Tramadol and were referred due to either ongoing illicit use or via primary care services requesting support. As part of the pandemic initiative, they were initiated on Buvidal and followed up.

Results

All ten patients successfully started on Buvidal without significant issues. As a group, if transferred straight to Buvidal, they tended to have fewer significant withdrawal symptoms prior to starting on the Buvidal compared to those on Methadone or Heroin. They were treated on the usual range of Buvidal doses (1 on 64mg, the others on 96-128mg monthly). They have all stabilised and successfully moved on with their lives on Buvidal. One has used the time on Buvidal to have psychological input around past traumas and successfully detoxified in the community using Buvidal.

Conclusions

Recommendations for services considering OAD - it is a surprisingly effective treatment which is easy to start. It has the scope for being both an effective OAD recovery medication and a potentially simple detoxification strategy for this patient group.

Disclosure

Professor Melichar has provided consultancy work, presentations, training and chaired panel discussions for all the companies in this area in the UK and some outside the UK. Recent work includes Althea (UK), Britannia (UK), Camurus (UK and Global), Martin

Missed opportunities for diagnosis and treatment in patients with TB symptoms: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The identification of patients with symptoms is the foundation of facility-based TB screening and diagnosis, but underdiagnosis is common. We conducted this systematic review with the hypothesis that underdiagnosis is largely secondary to patient drop out along the diagnostic and care pathway.

METHODS

We searched (up to 22 January 2019) MEDLINE, Embase, and Cinahl for studies investigating patient pathway to TB diagnosis and care at health facilities. We used Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) to assess risk of bias. We reported proportions of patients with symptoms at each stage of the pathway from symptom screening to treatment initiation.

RESULTS

After screening 3,558 abstracts, we identified 16 eligible studies. None provided data addressing the full cascade of care from clinical presentation to treatment initiation in the same patient population. Symptom screening, the critical entry point for diagnosis of TB, was not done for 33-96% of participants with symptoms in the three studies that reported this outcome. The proportion of attendees with symptoms offered a diagnostic investigation (data available for 15 studies) was very low with a study level median of 38% (IQR 14-44, range 4-84).

CONCLUSIONS

Inefficiencies of the TB symptom screen-based patient pathway are a major contributor to underdiagnosis of TB, reflecting inconsistent implementation of guidelines to ask all patients attending health facilities about respiratory symptoms and to offer diagnostic tests to all patients promptly once TB symptoms are identified. Better screening tools and interventions to improve the efficiency of TB screening and diagnosis pathways in health facilities are urgently needed.

Evidence for X(3872) in Pb-Pb Collisions and Studies of its Prompt Production at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The first evidence for X(3872) production in relativistic heavy ion collisions is reported. The X(3872) production is studied in lead-lead (Pb-Pb) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV per nucleon pair, using the decay chain X(3872)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-}→μ^{+}μ^{-}π^{+}π^{-}. The data were recorded with the CMS detector in 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.7  nb^{-1}. The measurement is performed in the rapidity and transverse momentum ranges |y|<1.6 and 15<p_{T}<50  GeV/c. The significance of the inclusive X(3872) signal is 4.2 standard deviations. The prompt X(3872) to ψ2S yield ratio is found to be ρ^{Pb-Pb}=1.08±0.49(stat)±0.52(syst), to be compared with typical values of 0.1 for pp collisions. This result provides a unique experimental input to theoretical models of the X(3872) production mechanism, and of the nature of this exotic state.

An evaluation of the Chesapeake Bay management strategy to improve water quality in small agricultural watersheds

Chesapeake Bay water quality has been a concern since 1970. In rural areas, agriculture is the dominant N and P source, and the voluntary application of best management practices (BMPs) is the primary management tool. Here we test the hypothesis that the current management approach of primarily voluntary, untargeted BMP implementation is insufficient to create detectable, widespread reductions in N, P, and total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations in agricultural watersheds of the Choptank basin, a tributary of Chesapeake Bay. To test this hypothesis, we assessed BMP implementation and sampled water quality on participating farms, at intermediate streams within each watershed, and at watershed outlets of four watersheds from 2013 to 2014. We also present water quality data from 2003 to 2014 at the outlets of 12 additional agricultural and one forested watershed and survey-directed interviews of farmers. By the end of 2014, large numbers of BMPs, both structural and cultural, had been implemented. Of the 16 agricultural watersheds, 50% showed significant decreases in baseflow N, 37.5% showed no changes, and 12.5% showed increasing TN. Baseflow P significantly decreased at just one watershed, increased at one, and remained stable at 14. Stormflow N was similar to baseflow, but stormflow P was 5 times higher than baseflow. These data partially support our hypothesis. Surveys suggested farmers considered themselves responsible for the quality of water leaving their farms, but out-of-pocket cost was the major impediment to further BMP adoption. We suggest that greater outreach and more financial support for farmers to implement BMPs is required to increase the types and densities of BMPs needed to achieve regional water quality goals.

Prospectively predicting Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection/s using routine data from the UK cystic fibrosis register

RATIONALE AND AIMS

Lung health of people with cystic fibrosis (PwCF) can be preserved by daily use of inhaled therapy. Adherence to inhaled therapy, therefore, provides an important process measure to understand the success of care and can be used as a quality indicator. Defining adherence is problematic, however, since the number of prescribed treatments varies considerably between PwCF. The problem is less pronounced among those with Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA), for whom at least three daily doses of nebulized therapy should be prescribed and who thus constitute a more homogeneous group. The UK CF Registry provides routine data on PA status, but data are only available 12 months after collection. In this study, we aim to prospectively identify contemporary PA status from historic registry data.

METHOD

UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015 for PwCF aged ≥16 was used to determine a pragmatic prediction rule for identifying contemporary PA status using historic registry data. Accuracy of three different prediction rules was assessed using the positive predictive value (PPV). The number and proportion of adults predicted to have PA infection were determined overall and per center for the selected prediction rule. Known characteristics linked to PA status were explored to ensure the robustness of the prediction rule.

RESULTS

Having CF Registry defined chronic PA status in the two previous years is the selected definition to predict a patient will have PA infection within the current year (population-level PPV = 96%-97%, centre level PPV = 85%-100%). This approach provides a subset of data between 1852 and 1872 patients overall and a range of 8 to 279 patients per center.

CONCLUSION

Historic registry data can be used to contemporaneously identify a subgroup of patients with chronic PA. Since this patient group has a narrower treatment schedule, this can facilitate a better benchmarking of adherence across centers.

Sample sizes for cluster-randomised trials with continuous outcomes: Accounting for uncertainty in a single intra-cluster correlation estimate

Sample size calculations for cluster-randomised trials require inclusion of an inflation factor taking into account the intra-cluster correlation coefficient. Often, estimates of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient are taken from pilot trials, which are known to have uncertainty about their estimation. Given that the value of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient has a considerable influence on the calculated sample size for a main trial, the uncertainty in the estimate can have a large impact on the ultimate sample size and consequently, the power of a main trial. As such, it is important to account for the uncertainty in the estimate of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient. While a commonly adopted approach is to utilise the upper confidence limit in the sample size calculation, this is a largely inefficient method which can result in overpowered main trials. In this paper, we present a method of estimating the sample size for a main cluster-randomised trial with a continuous outcome, using numerical methods to account for the uncertainty in the intra-cluster correlation coefficient estimate. Despite limitations with this initial study, the findings and recommendations in this paper can help to improve sample size estimations for cluster randomised controlled trials by accounting for uncertainty in the estimate of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient. We recommend this approach be applied to all trials where there is uncertainty in the intra-cluster correlation coefficient estimate, in conjunction with additional sources of information to guide the estimation of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient.

Impact of health technology assessment on prescribing patterns of inhaled fixed-dose combination triple therapy in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: Evidence suggests that triple therapy for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is being used in a broader range of patients than recommended by guidelines, which may have health and cost implications. Objective: To explore the relationship between national health technology assessment (HTA) agency appraisals and market penetration of two fixed-dose combination (FDC) triple therapies. Study design: HTAs from Q3 2017 to Q1 2020 from 10 countries were evaluated. Intervention: Glycopyrronium bromide/formoterol fumarate/beclomethasone (Trimbow®) and umeclidinium/vilanterol/fluticasone furoate (Trelegy™ Ellipta®). Main outcome measure: HTA restrictions and prescribing rates (days of therapy). Results: Seven countries (70%) imposed restrictions on use including prescription only for patients stable on free-combination triple therapy or not controlled on dual therapy, requirement of a specialist prescription or therapeutic plan, prescription only for patients with severe COPD, and use as second-line therapy or later. In general, countries that have imposed restrictions on the use of FDC triple therapies have seen a lower than average uptake. Conclusion: Payer guidance on prescribing FDC triple therapy may potentially support more appropriate prescribing in line with clinical guidelines. It is important for payers to consider which restrictions would ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources.