A practical revealed preference model for separating preferences and availability effects in marriage formation

Many demographic problems require models for partnership formation. We consider a model for matchings within a bipartite population where individuals have utility for people based on observed and unobserved characteristics. It represents both the availability of potential partners of different types and the preferences of individuals for such people. We develop an estimator for the preference parameters based on sample survey data on partnerships and population composition. We conduct simulation studies based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation showing that the estimator recovers preference parameters that are invariant under different population availabilities and has the correct confidence coverage.

Women's Use of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception for Birth Timing and Birth Stopping

The use of long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods-intrauterine devices (IUDs) and implants-has recently expanded rapidly in the United States, and these methods together approach the contraceptive pill in current prevalence. Research on LARCs has analyzed their use to reduce unintended pregnancies but not their use to enable intended pregnancies. Knowledge of both is necessary to understand LARCs' potential impacts on the reproductive life courses of U.S. women. We combine data from two nationally representative surveys to estimate women's likelihood and timing of subsequent reproductive events, including births resulting from an intended pregnancy up to nine years after discontinuing LARC use. We estimate that 62% of women will give birth, and 45% will give birth from an intended pregnancy. Additionally, 18% will have a new LARC inserted, and 13% will transition to sterilization. Most of these reproductive events occur within two years after discontinuing LARC use. Births from an intended pregnancy are especially common when no intervening switch to another contraceptive method occurs. We infer that women's motives for using LARC are varied but include the desire to postpone a birth, to postpone a decision about whether to have a(nother) birth, and to transition definitively to the completion of childbearing.

Postpartum contraception method type and risk of a short interpregnancy interval in a state Medicaid population

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the likelihood of a short interpregnancy interval (IPI) resulting in a birth among women covered by Medicaid, as a function of postpartum contraceptive method type.

STUDY DESIGN

We used Medicaid claims and eligibility data to identify women (aged 15-44) who had a Medicaid-financed birth in Delaware in the years 2012-2014 (n = 10,328). Claims were analyzed to determine postpartum contraceptive type within 60 days of the index birth, and linked birth certificates were used to determine the incidence and timing of a subsequent birth through 2018 (regardless of payer). We used logistic regression to analyze the likelihood of having a short IPI following the index birth as a function of postpartum contraceptive type, controlling for preterm births, parity, having a postpartum checkup, and maternal characteristics including age, race, education, and marital status.

RESULTS

Compared to patients receiving postpartum long-acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC), patients with no contraceptive claims had nearly 5 times higher odds (odds ratio [OR] = 4.98, confidence interval [CI] = 3.05-8.13) and those with claims for moderately effective methods (injectable, pill, patch, or ring) had 3.5 times higher odds (OR = 3.51, CI = 2.13-5.77) of a subsequent birth following a short IPI.

CONCLUSIONS

In a state population of Medicaid-enrolled women, women with claims for postpartum LARC had substantially lower risk of a short IPI resulting in a birth.

IMPLICATIONS

Women who received LARC within 60 days postpartum are less likely to experience a short interpregnancy interval resulting in a birth. The evidence suggests that recent state policy changes that make postpartum LARC more accessible to those that desire it will be an effective strategy in helping patients obtain desired birth intervals.

Changes to Contraceptive Method Use at Title X Clinics Following Delaware Contraceptive Access Now, 2008-2017

Objectives. To measure changes in the contraceptive methods used by Title X clients after implementation of Delaware Contraceptive Access Now, a public-private initiative that aims to increase access to contraceptives, particularly long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs).Methods. Using administrative data from the 2008-2017 Family Planning Annual Reports and a difference-in-differences design, we compared changes in contraceptive method use among adult female Title X family planning clients in Delaware with changes in a set of comparison states. We considered permanent methods, LARCs, moderately effective methods, less effective methods, and no method use.Results. Results suggest a 3.2-percentage-point increase in LARC use relative to changes in other states (a 40% increase from baseline). We were unable to make definitive conclusions about other contraceptive method types.Conclusions. Delaware Contraceptive Access Now increased LARC use among Title X clients. Our results have implications for states considering comprehensive family planning initiatives.

Intentionally or Ambivalently Risking a Short Interpregnancy Interval: Reproductive-Readiness Factors in Women's Postpartum Non-Use of Contraception

A focus of research on short interpregnancy intervals (IPI) has been on young disadvantaged women whose births are likely to be unintended. Later initiation of family formation in the United States and other high-income countries points to the need to also consider a woman's attributes indicative of readiness for purposefully accelerated family formation achieved through short IPIs. We test for whether factors indicating "reproductive readiness"-including being married, being older, and having just had a first birth or a birth later than desired-predict a woman's non-use of contraception in the postpartum months. We also test for whether this contraceptive non-use results explicitly from wanting to become pregnant again. The data come from the 2012-2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, representing women who recently gave birth in any of 35 U.S. states and New York City (N = 120,111). We find that these reproductive-readiness factors are highly predictive of women's postpartum non-use of contraception because of a stated desire to become pregnant and are moderately predictive of contraceptive non-use without an explicit pregnancy intention. We conclude that planning for, or ambivalently risking, a short IPI is a frequent family-formation strategy for women whose family formation has been delayed. This is likely to become increasingly common as family formation in the United States is initiated later in the reproductive life course.

First birth before first stable employment and subsequent single-mother 'disconnection' before and after the Welfare Reform and Great Recession

We analyze data from two nationally-representative U.S. surveys that include cohorts of young women before and after the 1996 Welfare Reform. Women were more likely to have their first birth precede their first stable employment after than before the reform. Women with this life-course sequence were at higher risk of single motherhood and, as single mothers, were at higher risk of 'disconnection' simultaneously from earned income and public cash benefits. Declines in employment in the Great-Recession period resulted in 'disconnection' for between a fifth and a quarter of single mothers who did not experience stable employment before their first birth.

Reducing Preventable Hospitalization and Disparity: Association With Local Health Department Mental Health Promotion Activities

INTRODUCTION

Serving as the center of community-engaged health programs, local health departments can play a critical role in promoting community mental health. The objectives of this study were to explore the association between local health department activities and (1) preventable hospitalizations for individuals with mental disorders, and (2) associated racial disparities in preventable hospitalizations.

METHOD

Employing the linked data sets of the 2012-2013 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project state inpatient discharge file of the State of Maryland, the National Association of County and City Health Officials Profiles Survey, the Area Resource File, and U.S. Census data, the authors estimated the association between local health department activities (i.e., provision of mental health preventive care and community mental health promotion) and the reduction of the preventable hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions and coexisting mental disorders. All the data analyses were conducted during September 2016-August 2017.

RESULTS

Multilevel regression showed that local health departments' provision of mental health preventive care (OR=0.76, 95% CI=0.63, 0.92) and mental health promotion activities (OR=0.77, 95% CI=0.62, 0.94) were significantly associated with lower rates of preventable hospitalizations for individuals with ambulatory care-sensitive conditions and coexisting mental disorders. Decomposition results suggested that local health departments' direct provision of mental health preventive care could reduce 9% of the racial disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving care coordination and integration are essential to meeting the growing demands for healthcare access, while controlling costs and improving quality of service delivery. These results suggest that it will be effective to engage local health departments in the integrated behavioral health system.

Retrospective Reporting of First Employment in the Life-courses of U.S. Women

We investigate the accuracy of young women's retrospective reporting on their first substantial employment in three major, nationally-representative United States surveys, examining hypotheses that longer recall duration, employment histories with lower salience and higher complexity, and an absence of "anchoring" biographical details will adversely affect reporting accuracy. We compare retrospective reports to benchmark panel survey estimates for the same cohorts. We find that sociodemographic groups-notably non-Hispanic White women and women with college-educated mothers-whose early employment histories at these ages are in aggregate more complex (multiple jobs) and lower in salience (more part-time jobs), are more likely to omit the occurrence of their first substantial job or employment, and to misreport their first job or employment as occurring at an older age. We also find that retrospective reports are skewed towards overreporting longer, therefore more salient, later jobs over shorter, earlier jobs. The relatively small magnitudes of differences, however, indicate that the retrospective questions nevertheless capture these summary indicators of first substantial employment reasonably accurately. Moreover, these differences are especially small for groups of women who are more likely to experience labor-market disadvantage, and for women with early births.

Epidemiological Paradox or Immigrant Vulnerability? Obesity Among Young Children of Immigrants

According to the "immigrant epidemiological paradox," immigrants and their children enjoy health advantages over their U.S.-born peers--advantages that diminish with greater acculturation. We investigated child obesity as a potentially significant deviation from this paradox for second-generation immigrant children. We evaluated two alternate measures of mother's acculturation: age at arrival in the United States and English language proficiency. To obtain sufficient numbers of second-generation immigrant children, we pooled samples across two related, nationally representative surveys. Each included measured (not parent-reported) height and weight of kindergartners. We also estimated models that alternately included and excluded mother's pre-pregnancy weight status as a predictor. Our findings are opposite to those predicted by the immigrant epidemiological paradox: children of U.S.-born mothers were less likely to be obese than otherwise similar children of foreign-born mothers; and the children of the least-acculturated immigrant mothers, as measured by low English language proficiency, were the most likely to be obese. Foreign-born mothers had lower (healthier) pre-pregnancy weight than U.S.-born mothers, and this was protective against their second-generation children's obesity. This protection, however, was not sufficiently strong to outweigh factors associated or correlated with the mothers' linguistic isolation and marginal status as immigrants.

Two Decades of Negative Educational Selectivity of Mexican Migrants to the United States

Immigration is commonly considered to be selective of more able individuals. Studies comparing the educational attainment of Mexican immigrants in the United States to that of the Mexican resident population support this characterization. Upward educational-attainment biases in both coverage and measurement, however, may be substantial in U.S.

DATA SOURCES

Moreover, differences in educational attainment by place size are very large within Mexico, and U.S. data sources provide no information on immigrants' places of origin within Mexico. To address these problems, we use multiple sources of nationally-representative Mexican survey data to re-evaluate the educational selectivity of working-age Mexican migrants to the United States over the 1990s and 2000s. We document disproportionately rural and small-urban-area origins of Mexican migrants and a steep positive gradient of educational attainment by place size. We show that together these conditions induced strongly negative educational selection of Mexican migrants throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We interpret this finding as consistent with low returns to the education of unauthorized migrants and few opportunities for authorized migration.

Differences by mother's education in the effect of childcare on child obesity

Previous studies have found adverse effects of maternal employment on child obesity for higher educated mothers. Using a quasi-structural model, we find additionally a lower risk of obesity for children of less educated mothers with increased time in non-parental childcare.

Evaluation of bias in estimates of early childhood obesity from parent-reported heights and weights

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated bias in estimated obesity prevalence owing to error in parental reporting. We also evaluated bias mitigation through application of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's biologically implausible value (BIV) cutoffs.

METHODS

We simulated obesity prevalence of children aged 2 to 5 years in 2 panel surveys after counterfactually substituting parameters estimated from 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data for prevalence of extreme height and weight and for proportions obese in extreme height or weight categories.

RESULTS

Heights reported below the first and fifth height-for-age percentiles explained between one half and two thirds, respectively, of total bias in obesity prevalence. Bias was reduced by one tenth when excluding cases with height-for-age and weight-for-age BIVs and by one fifth when excluding cases with body mass-index-for-age BIVs. Applying BIVs, however, resulted in incorrect exclusion of nonnegligible proportions of obese children.

CONCLUSIONS

Correcting the reporting of children's heights in the first percentile alone may reduce overestimation of early childhood obesity prevalence in surveys with parental reporting by one half to two thirds. Excluding BIVs has limited effectiveness in mitigating this bias.

Multiple Imputation For Combined-Survey Estimation With Incomplete Regressors In One But Not Both Surveys

Within-survey multiple imputation (MI) methods are adapted to pooled-survey regression estimation where one survey has more regressors, but typically fewer observations, than the other. This adaptation is achieved through: (1) larger numbers of imputations to compensate for the higher fraction of missing values; (2) model-fit statistics to check the assumption that the two surveys sample from a common universe; and (3) specificying the analysis model completely from variables present in the survey with the larger set of regressors, thereby excluding variables never jointly observed. In contrast to the typical within-survey MI context, cross-survey missingness is monotonic and easily satisfies the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption needed for unbiased MI. Large efficiency gains and substantial reduction in omitted variable bias are demonstrated in an application to sociodemographic differences in the risk of child obesity estimated from two nationally-representative cohort surveys.

Parent-reported height and weight as sources of bias in survey estimates of childhood obesity

Parental reporting of height and weight was evaluated for US children aged 2-13 years. The prevalence of obesity (defined as a body mass index value (calculated as weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) in the 95th percentile or higher) and its height and weight components were compared in child supplements of 2 nationally representative surveys: the 1996-2008 Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort (NLSY79-Child) and the 1997 Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID-CDS). Sociodemographic differences in parent reporting error were analyzed. Error was largest for children aged 2-5 years. Underreporting of height, not overreporting of weight, generated a strong upward bias in obesity prevalence at those ages. Frequencies of parent-reported heights below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (Atlanta, Georgia) first percentile were implausibly high at 16.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14.3, 19.0) in the NLSY79-Child and 20.6% (95% CI: 16.0, 26.3) in the PSID-CDS. They were highest among low-income children at 33.2% (95% CI: 22.4, 46.1) in the PSID-CDS and 26.2% (95% CI: 20.2, 33.2) in the NLSY79-Child. Bias in the reporting of obesity decreased with children's age and reversed direction at ages 12-13 years. Underreporting of weight increased with age, and underreporting of height decreased with age. We recommend caution to researchers who use parent-reported heights, especially for very young children, and offer practical solutions for survey data collection and research on child obesity.

Hispanic and black US children's paths to high adolescent obesity prevalence

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to identify the ages contributing most to the development of higher obesity prevalence in the 8th grade (approximately age 14) among Hispanic and black children than among non-Hispanic white children in the United States.

METHODS

Using the nationally representative Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K), a sample of 17,420 children in kindergarten in 1999, followed in 1st, 3rd, 5th and 8th grades through 2007, was analysed. First, 'normal', 'overweight' and 'obese' weight-status categories in each grade were assigned from US Centers for Disease Control body mass index percentiles. Second, probabilities of being in each of the three weight-status categories in kindergarten and of transitioning between categories after kindergarten were estimated by logistic regression. These probabilities were then used as parameters of a weight-status trajectory simulation model from which a decomposition analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Obesity prevalence in the 8th grade was equally high among Hispanic (25.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.3, 27.8%) and black children (25.1%; 95% CI: 20.9, 29.6%) compared to white children (17.4%; 95% CI: 15.9, 19.0%). As much as 73% of the Hispanic-white 8th grade obesity disparity was generated by 3rd grade and 44% by kindergarten. In contrast, only 15% of the black-white obesity 8th grade disparity was generated by kindergarten, whereas 75% was generated between the 3rd and 8th grades and 53% between the 5th and 8th grades.

CONCLUSIONS

Although adolescent obesity is equally prevalent among Hispanic and black children, obesity emerges and is sustained earlier in Hispanic children. Diagnosis and prevention strategies should be designed accordingly.

Prenatal, perinatal, early life, and sociodemographic factors underlying racial differences in the likelihood of high body mass index in early childhood

OBJECTIVES

We investigated early childhood disparities in high body mass index (BMI) between Black and White US children.

METHODS

We compared differences in Black and White children's prevalence of sociodemographic, prenatal, perinatal, and early life risk and protective factors; fit logistic regression models predicting high BMI (≥ 95th percentile) at age 4 to 5 years to 2 nationally representative samples followed from birth; and performed separate and pooled-survey estimations of these models.

RESULTS

After adjustment for sample design-related variables, models predicting high BMI in the 2 samples were statistically indistinguishable. In the pooled-survey models, Black children's odds of high BMI were 59% higher than White children's (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.32, 1.92). Sociodemographic predictors reduced the racial disparity to 46% (OR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.17, 1.81). Prenatal, perinatal, and early life predictors reduced the disparity to nonsignificance (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 0.93, 1.49). Maternal prepregnancy obesity and short-duration or no breastfeeding were among predictors for which racial differences in children's exposures most disadvantaged Black children.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial disparities in early childhood high BMI were largely explained by potentially modifiable risk and protective factors.

The quality of male fertility data in major U.S. surveys

Researchers continue to question fathers' willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men's fertility data in the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men's characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents. We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births. Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications for models of early male fertility.

Break-up of New Orleans Households after Hurricane Katrina

Theory and evidence on disaster-induced population displacement have focused on individual and population-subgroup characteristics. Less is known about impacts on households. I estimate excess incidence of household break-up due to Hurricane Katrina by comparing a probability sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans resident adult household heads and non-household heads (N = 242), traced just over a year later, with a matched sample from a nationally representative survey over an equivalent period. One in three among all adult non-household heads, and one in two among adult children of household heads, had separated from the household head 1 year post-Katrina. These rates were, respectively, 2.2 and 2.7 times higher than national rates. A 50% higher prevalence of adult children living with parents in pre-Katrina New Orleans than nationally increased the hurricane's impact on household break-up. Attention to living arrangements as a dimension of social vulnerability in disaster recovery is suggested.

Bayesian estimation of Hispanic fertility hazards from survey and population data

Previous studies have demonstrated both large gains in efficiency and reductions in bias by incorporating population information in regression estimation with sample survey data. These studies, however, assumed that the population values are exact. This assumption is relaxed here through a Bayesian extension of constrained maximum likelihood estimation applied to U.S. Hispanic fertility. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of both auxiliary survey data and expert judgment in making adjustments to published Hispanic Population fertility rates, and for the estimation of uncertainty about these adjustments. Compared with estimation from sample survey data only, the Bayesian constrained estimator results in much greater precision in the age pattern of the baseline fertility hazard and therefore of the predicted values for any given combination of socioeconomic variables. The use of population data in combination with survey data may therefore be highly advantageous even when the population data are known to have significant levels of nonsampling error

UNIVERSAL VERSUS ECONOMICALLY POLARIZED CHANGE IN AGE AT FIRST BIRTH: A FRENCH-BRITISH COMPARISON

France and the United Kingdom represent two contrasting institutional models for the integration of employment and motherhood, respectively the 'universalistic' regime type that offers subsidized child-care and maternity-leave benefits to women at all income levels, and the 'means-testing' regime type that mainly offers income-tested benefits for single mothers. Using the two countries as comparative case studies, we develop and test the hypothesis that the socio-economic gradient of fertility timing has become increasingly mediated by family policy. We hypothesize and find increasing polarization in age at first birth by pre-childbearing occupation between the 1980s and 1990s in the U.K. but not in France. Early first childbearing persisted in the U.K. only among women in low-skill occupations, while shifts towards increasingly late first births occurred in clerical/secretarial occupations and above. Increases in age at first birth occurred across all occupations in France, but this was still much earlier on average than for all but low-skill British mothers.

Emigration and Schooling among Second-Generation Mexican-American Children

In this Research Note, we investigate the prevalence and patterns of second-generation Mexican-American children's migration to and return from Mexico during childhood and consider the consequences of this migration for their schooling. Around one in ten second-generation Mexican-American children live in Mexico for some of their childhood. Strong patterns of return to the U.S. through childhood argue for their being considered as part of the Mexican-American second generation even when in Mexico. Their rates of school enrollment in Mexico are much lower than for second-generation Mexican-American children remaining in the U.S. and cannot be explained by their weakly negative selection into emigration. We conclude that country of residence is a far more important determinant of schooling outcome than is migrant status in that country.

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women's education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.

Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach

In many situations information from a sample of individuals can be supplemented by population level information on the relationship between a dependent variable and explanatory variables. Inclusion of the population level information can reduce bias and increase the efficiency of the parameter estimates.Population level information can be incorporated via constraints on functions of the model parameters. In general the constraints are nonlinear making the task of maximum likelihood estimation harder. In this paper we develop an alternative approach exploiting the notion of an empirical likelihood. It is shown that within the framework of generalised linear models, the population level information corresponds to linear constraints, which are comparatively easy to handle. We provide a two-step algorithm that produces parameter estimates using only unconstrained estimation. We also provide computable expressions for the standard errors. We give an application to demographic hazard modelling by combining panel survey data with birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity.

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country’s population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This “sending-country birth cohort” method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.

Simultaneous care for parents and care for children among mid-life British women and men

This article investigates care provided to parents and parents-in-law by mid-life adults with dependent children at home. Data from the General Household Survey are used first to estimate the prevalence of this 'two-way' care over the past decade, and second to develop forecasts of two-way care for a generation of women who have just finished their childbearing years. Having a higher education qualification is associated with later ages both of caring for parents and of having children at home. Increasingly late first childbearing, however, points towards a potentially greater caring 'squeeze' for higher-qualified women, with a little over 1 in 10 at age 45 projected to be caring for a parent while still having a child under 18 in the household.

Higher qualifications, first-birth timing, and further childbearing in England and Wales

This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly.

How important are intergenerational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France

Teenage fertility has fallen substantially in every Western European country except the United Kingdom. This article examines the hypothesis that repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter is a major cause of the UK being the exception. A simple demographic model of fertility across generations is estimated with comparable data from England and Wales and France. The main finding is that mother-daughter repetition can account for only a minor part of the total difference in teenage childbearing between the two countries, especially over the long term. The higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those whose mothers began childbearing after their teenage years dominates.

Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities

With the widespread availability of event-history data, demographers have increasingly eschewed registration-system data in favor of survey data. We propose instead using survey and registration-system data in combination, via a constrained maximum-likelihood framework for demographic hazard modeling. As an application, we combine panel survey data and birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity. The general fertility rate obtained from registration-system data constrains the weighted sum of parity-specific birth probabilities. The variances about the parity-specific birth probabilities are halved when registration-system data are used to constrain the estimates. Other demographic applications are discussed.

Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities

With the widespread availability of event-history data, demographers have increasingly eschewed registration-system data in favor of survey data. We propose instead using survey and registration-system data in combination, via a constrained maximum-likelihood framework for demographic hazard modeling. As an application, we combine panel survey data and birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity. The general fertility rate obtained from registration-system data constrains the weighted sum of parity-specific birth probabilities. The variances about the parity-specific birth probabilities are halved when registration-system data are used to constrain the estimates. Other demographic applications are discussed.

Entry or exit? A transition-probability approach to explaining the high prevalence of single motherhood among black women

I analyze the prevalence of single motherhood among black and non-Hispanic white women in terms of differences in entry and exit. Higher initial entry rates among black women, especially through unpartnered childbearing, account for slightly more than half the difference between blacks and whites in the prevalence of single motherhood. The remainder of the difference is due to black single mothers' much lower rates of exit through union formation and to their very high rates of reentry through dissolution of these later unions. Entry and exit rates through the 1990s imply a widening racial gap.

Entry or exit? A transition-probability approach to explaining the high prevalence of single motherhood among black women

I analyze the prevalence of single motherhood among black and non-Hispanic white women in terms of differences in entry and exit. Higher initial entry rates among black women, especially through unpartnered childbearing, account for slightly more than half the difference between blacks and whites in the prevalence of single motherhood. The remainder of the difference is due to black single mothers’ much lower rates of exit through union formation and to their very high rates of reentry through dissolution of these later unions. Entry and exit rates through the 1990s imply a widening racial gap.

Incomplete reporting of men's fertility in the United States and Britain: a research note

We evaluate men's retrospective fertility histories from the British Household Panel Survey and the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Further, we analyze the PSID men's panel-updated fertility histories for their possible superiority over retrospective collection. One third to one half of men's nonmarital births and births within previous marriages are missed in estimates from retrospective histories. Differential survey underrepresentation of previously married men compared with previously married women accounts for a substantial proportion of the deficits in previous-marriage fertility. More recent retrospective histories and panel-updated fertility histories improve reporting completeness, primarily by reducing the proportion of marital births from unions that are no longer intact at the survey date.

Incomplete reporting of men’s fertility in the united states and britain: A research note

We evaluate men;s retrospective fertility histories from the British Household Panel Survey and the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Further, we analyze the PSID men’s panel-updated fertility histories for their possible superiority over retrospective collection. One third to one half of men’s nonmarital births and births within previous marriages are missed in estimates from retrospective histories. Differential survey underrepresentation of previously married men compared with previously married women accounts for a substantial proportion of the deficits in previous-marriage fertility. More recent retrospective histories and panel-updated fertility histories improve reporting completeness, primarily by reducing the proportion of marital births from unions that are no longer intact at the survey date.

Aggregating poor and near-poor elderly under different resource definitions

The large number of near-poor relative to poor elderly persons in the United States may be recharacterized as a high-prevalence, low-intensity type of poverty. The present study investigates how this characterization is affected by accounting for assets and non-cash transfers in addition to cash income in resources available for current-year consumption. The Foster, Greer, Thorbecke (FGT) poverty index is used to separately and jointly analyze prevalence and intensity of poverty. Estimation is from 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation data. Adding the annuity value of assets removes many elderly persons from the ranks of the poor and near-poor, while adding non-cash transfers moves many elderly persons from poverty into near-poverty. Their combined effect reinforces a high-prevalence, low-intensity characterization of poverty. Large total poverty reduction effects are missed by income-only resource definition, and large poverty-intensity reduction effects are missed by prevalence-only aggregation.

Elderly poverty alleviation through living with family

"We estimate here the extent of United States elderly poverty alleviation through living with family. These estimates are motivated by public-policy concern about the well-being of the elderly, and by the relevance of the process for fertility under the old-age-security hypothesis. An inter-temporal poverty-measurement model is estimated with 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation income and wealth data. Without extended-family co-residence, and assuming no bequests, poverty rates would increase 42% over observed rates. Female elderly account for almost all the alleviated poverty. As a population, their impoverishment with age is effectively prevented by co-residence. Proportionately more black than white elderly are beneficiaries of poverty alleviation through living with family, but white elderly are more likely to be beneficiaries if at risk."

Cohort trends in the lifetime distribution of female family headship in the United States, 1968-1985

We use the PSID Relationship File to estimate cohort trends in the lifetime incidence and duration of female family headship. Hazard (event-history) techniques are used to estimate movements into and out of headship, accounting for duration dependence and left-censored spells. The mean number of years spent in headship between ages 14 and 59 rose dramatically over the period. The increase arose from an increased number of headship spells, including an increase in the number of women ever experiencing headship, but not all from an increase in durations of headship spells; those decreased slightly.

Cohort Trends in the Lifetime Distribution of Female Family Headship in the United States, 1968–1985

We use the PSID Relationship File to estimate cohort trends in the lifetime incidence and duration of female family headship. Hazard (event-history) techniques are used to estimate movements into and out of headship, accounting for duration dependence and left-censored spells. The mean number of years spent in headship between ages 14 and 59 rose dramatically over the period. The increase arose from an increased number of headship spells, including an increase in the number of women ever experiencing headship, but not at all from an increase in durations of headship spells; those decreased slightly.