From disease- to people-centred pandemic management: organized communities, community-oriented primary care and health information systems

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the health equity gap between and within countries. Western countries were the first to receive vaccines and mortality was higher among socially deprived, minority and indigenous populations. Surprisingly, many sub-Saharan countries reported low excess mortalities. These countries share experiences with community organization and participation in health. The aim of this article was to analyse if and how this central role of people can promote a successful pandemic response.

METHODS

This analysis was partly based on local and national experiences shared during an international and Latin American conference on person-and people-centred care in 2021. Additionally, excess mortality data and pandemic control-relevant data, as well as literature on the pandemic response of countries with an unexpected low excess mortality were consulted.

RESULTS

Togo, Mongolia, Thailand and Kenya had a seven times lower mean excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 than the United States of America. More successful pandemic responses were observed in settings with experience in managing epidemics like Ebola and HIV, well-established community networks, a national philosophy of mutual aid, financial government assistance, more human resources for primary care and paid community health workers.

DISCUSSION

Since trust in authorities and health needs vary greatly, local strategies are needed to complement national and international pandemic responses. Three key levers were identified to promote locally-tailored pandemic management: well-organized communities, community-oriented primary care, and health information systems. An organized community structure stems from a shared ethical understanding of humanity as being interconnected with each other and the environment. This structure facilitates mutual aid and participation in decision making. Community-oriented primary care includes attention for collective community health and ways to improve health from its roots. A health information system supports collective health and health equity analysis by presenting health needs stratified for social deprivation, ethnicity, and community circumstances.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in excess mortality between countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and various country experiences demonstrate the potential of the levers in promoting a more just and effective health emergency response. These same levers and strategies can promote more inclusive and socially just health systems.

Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in adolescents: a national cross-sectional study, August 2021-January 2022, England

OBJECTIVES

To assess socioeconomic and geographical factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in pupils attending state-funded secondary schools in England.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

State-funded schools in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Pupils aged 12-17 years attending state-funded schools in England for the academic year 2021/2022.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Demographic, socioeconomic and geographical factors associated with vaccination uptake. We linked individual-level data from the English Schools Census to the National Immunisation Management System to obtain COVID-19 vaccination status of 3.2 million adolescents. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess demographic, socioeconomic and geographical factors associated with vaccination.

RESULTS

By 9 January 2022, 56.8% of adolescents aged 12-17 years old had received at least one dose, with uptake increasing from 48.7% in those aged 12 years old to 77.2% in those aged 17 years old. Among adolescents aged 12-15 years old, there were large variations in vaccine uptake by region and ethnic group. Pupils who spoke English as an additional language (38.2% vs 55.5%), with special educational needs (48.1% vs 53.5%), eligible for free school meals (35.9% vs 58.9%) and lived in more deprived areas (36.1% in most deprived vs 70.3% in least deprived) had lower vaccine uptake. Socioeconomic variables had greater impact on the odds of being vaccinated than geographical variables. School-level analysis found wide variation in vaccine uptake between schools even within the same region. Schools with higher proportions of pupils eligible for free school meals had lower vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

We found large differences in vaccine uptake by geographical region and ethnicity. Socioeconomic variables had a greater impact on the odds of being vaccinated than geographical variables. Further research is required to identify evidence-based interventions to improve vaccine uptake in adolescents.

A cross-sectional study of Q fever in Camels: Risk factors for infection, the role of small ruminants and public health implications for desert-dwelling pastoral communities

Q fever represents an important 'neglected zoonosis', with high prevalences recorded across the Middle East region. Among rural desert-dwelling communities in the region, camel milk is largely consumed raw, due to perceptions of dromedaries as a uniquely clean livestock species mentioned in the Qur'an and Islamic hadith, while milk from other livestock species is usually boiled. As a result, camels present a unique public health threat among such communities from milk-borne pathogens, including Coxiella burnetii. In view of this, a cross-sectional study was conducted among dromedary herds in southern Jordan between September 2017 and October 2018, including 404 camels from 121 randomly selected herds. In addition, 510 household members associated with these herds were interviewed regarding potential high-risk practices for zoonotic transmission. Weight adjusted camel population seroprevalence for C. burnetii was 49.6% (95% CI: 44.7-54.5), with evidence of maternally derived immunity in calves ≤6 months old. Adjusted herd-level prevalence was 76.0% (95% CI 72.7-80.2). It was estimated 30.4% (144/477) of individuals consumed raw milk from infected herds monthly or more. Following multivariable logistic regression analysis, seropositive status in camels was found to be associated with increasing age, high herd tick burdens, keeping the herd together throughout the year including when calving, and owning larger (>50) sheep and goat flocks, with goats presenting a higher risk than sheep. Racing camel status was found to be protective. Socioculturally appropriate interventions aimed at raising awareness of potential risks associated with drinking raw camel milk, alongside appropriate livestock management interventions, should be considered.

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern).

FINDINGS

Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda).

INTERPRETATION

Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Post-COVID-19 condition and persisting symptoms in English schoolchildren: repeated surveys to March 2022

BACKGROUND

Both post-COVID-19 condition (long COVID) and the presence of persisting symptoms that do not meet formal definitions of post-COVID-19-condition may adversely affect quality of life and function. However, their prevalence among children and young people in England is unclear.

METHODS

We used data from repeated surveys in a large cohort of English schoolchildren from the COVID-19 Schools Infection Survey (SIS) for the school year 2021/22 to describe the weighted prevalence of post-COVID-19-condition and compare persisting symptoms between individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and those with neither a positive test history nor suspected infection.

RESULTS

Among 7797 children from 173 schools, 1.8% of primary school pupils (aged 4 to 11 years), 4.5% of secondary school pupils in years 7-11 (aged 11 to 16 years) and 6.9% of those in years 12-13 (aged 16 to 18 years) met a definition of post-COVID-19 condition in March 2022. Specific persisting symptoms such as anxiety or difficulty concentrating were frequently reported regardless of prior infection status and increased with age: 48.0% of primary school pupils, 52.9% of secondary school pupils in years 7-11 and 79.5% in years 12-13 reporting at least one symptom lasting more than 12 weeks. Persisting loss of smell and taste, cardiovascular and some systemic symptoms were more frequently reported by those with a previous positive test.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that ongoing symptoms were frequently reported by English schoolchildren regardless of SARS-CoV-2 test results and some specific symptoms such as loss of smell and taste were more prevalent in those with a positive test history. Our study emphasises the wide-ranging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health and wellbeing of children and young people.

Implementation of COVID-19 Preventive Measures and Staff Well-Being in a Sample of English Schools 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

We examined fidelity and feasibility of implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in schools, and explored associations between adherence to these measures and staff well-being, to inform policy on sustainable implementation and staff wellbeing.

METHODS

Surveys were conducted across 128 schools in England with 107 headteachers and 2698 staff-members with reference to autumn term 2020, examining school-level implementation of preventive measures, adherence, and teacher burnout (response rates for headteacher and staff surveys were 84% and 59%, respectively).

RESULTS

The median number of measures implemented in primary and secondary schools was 33 (range 23-41), and 32 (range 22-40), respectively; most measures presented challenges. No differences were found regarding number of measures implemented by school-level socio-economic disadvantage. High adherence was reported for staff wearing face-coverings, staff regularly washing their hands, (secondary only) desks facing forwards, and (primary only) increased cleaning of surfaces and student hand-washing. Adherence to most measures was reported as higher in primary than secondary schools. Over half of school leaders and 42% (517/1234) of other teaching staff suffered from high emotional exhaustion. Higher teacher-reported school-wide adherence with measures was consistently associated with lower burnout for leaders and other teaching staff.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate a tremendous effort in implementing preventive measures and an urgent need to support investments in improving teacher wellbeing.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary and secondary school students and staff in England in the 2020/2021 school year: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

Investigate risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infections in school students and staff.

METHODS

In the 2020/2021 school year, we administered polymerase chain reaction, antibody tests, and questionnaires to a sample of primary and secondary school students and staff, with data linkage to COVID-19 surveillance. We fitted logistic regression models to identify the factors associated with infection.

RESULTS

We included 6799 students and 5090 staff in the autumn and 11,952 students and 4569 staff in the spring/summer terms. Infections in students in autumn 2020 were related to the percentage of students eligible for free school meals. We found no statistical association between infection risk in primary and secondary schools and reported contact patterns between students and staff in either period in our study. Using public transports was associated with increased risk in autumn in students (adjusted odds ratio = 1.72; 95% confidence interval 1.31-2.25) and staff. One or more infections in the same household during either period was the strongest risk factor for infection in students and more so among staff.

CONCLUSION

Deprivation, community, and household factors were more strongly associated with infection than contacts patterns at school; this suggests that the additional school-based mitigation measures in England in 2020/2021 likely helped reduce transmission risk in schools.

Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

National and regional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary and secondary school children in England: the School Infection Survey, a national open cohort study, November 2021

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 infection rates are likely to be underestimated in children because of asymptomatic or mild infections. We aim to estimate national and regional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary (4-11-year-olds) and secondary (11-18-year-olds) school children between 10 November and 10 December 2021.

METHODS

Cross-sectional surveillance in England using two stage sampling, firstly stratifying into regions and selecting local authorities, then selecting schools according to a stratified sample within selected local authorities. Participants were sampled using a novel oral fluid validated assay for SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid IgG antibodies.

RESULTS

4,980 students from 117 state-funded schools (2,706 from 83 primary schools, 2,274 from 34 secondary schools) provided a valid sample. After weighting for age, sex and ethnicity, and adjusting for assay accuracy, the national prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary school students, who were all unvaccinated, was 40.1% (95%CI; 37.3-43.0). Antibody prevalence increased with age (p<0.001) and were higher in urban than rural schools (p=0.01). In secondary school students, the adjusted, weighted national prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 82.4% (95%CI; 79.5-85.1); including 71.5% (95%CI; 65.7-76.8) in unvaccinated and 97.5% (95%CI; 96.1-98.5) in vaccinated students. Antibody prevalence increased with age (p<0.001), and was not significantly different in urban versus rural students (p=0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In November 2021, using a validated oral fluid assay, national SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was estimated to be 40.1% in primary school students and 82.4% in secondary school students. In unvaccinated children this was approximately three-fold higher than confirmed infections highlighting the importance of seroprevalence studies to estimate prior exposure.

DATA AVAILABILITY

De-identified study data are available for access by accredited researchers in the ONS Secure Research Service (SRS) for accredited research purposes under part 5, chapter 5 of the Digital Economy Act 2017. For further information about accreditation, contact Research.support@ons.gov.uk or visit the SRS website.

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection among staff and students in a cohort of English primary and secondary schools during 2020-2021

Background

There remains uncertainty about the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 among school students and staff and the extent to which non-pharmaceutical-interventions reduce the risk of school settings.

Methods

We conducted an open cohort study in a sample of 59 primary and 97 secondary schools in 15 English local authority areas that were implementing government guidance to schools open during the pandemic. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among those attending school, antibody prevalence, and antibody negative to positive conversion rates in staff and students over the school year (November 2020-July 2021).

Findings

22,585 staff and students participated. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among those attending school was highest during the first two rounds of testing in the autumn term, ranging from 0.7% (95% CI 0.2, 1.2) among primary staff in November 2020 to 1.6% (95% CI 0.9, 2.3) among secondary staff in December 2020. Antibody conversion rates were highest in the autumn term. Infection patterns were similar between staff and students, and between primary and secondary schools. The prevalence of nucleoprotein antibodies increased over the year and was lower among students than staff. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in the North-West region was lower among secondary students attending school on normal school days than the regional estimate for secondary school-age children.

Interpretation

SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in staff and students attending school varied with local community infection rates. Non-pharmaceutical interventions intended to prevent infected individuals attending school may have partially reduced the prevalence of infection among those on the school site.

Funding

UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Live-attenuated influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in children aged 2-6 years, the first three seasons of the childhood influenza vaccination program in England, 2013/14-2015/16

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, the United Kingdom began to roll-out a universal annual influenza vaccination program for children. An important component of any new vaccination program is measuring its effectiveness. Live-attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) have since shown mixed results with vaccine effectiveness (VE) varying across seasons and countries elsewhere. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children against severe disease during the first three seasons of the LAIV program in England.

METHODS

Using the screening method, LAIV vaccination coverage in children hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection was compared with vaccination coverage in 2-6-year-olds in the general population to estimate VE in 2013/14-2015/16.

RESULTS

The overall LAIV VE, adjusted for age group, week/month and geographical area, for all influenza types pooled over the three influenza seasons was 50.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.2, 63.8). By age, there was evidence of protection against hospitalization from influenza vaccination in both the pre-school (2-4-year-olds) (48.1%, 95% CI 27.2, 63.1) and school-aged children (5-6-year-olds) (62.6%, 95% CI 2.6, 85.6) over the three seasons.

CONCLUSION

LAIV vaccination in children provided moderate annual protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in England over the three influenza seasons. This study contributes further to the limited literature to date on influenza VE against severe disease in children.

Estimating baseline rates of adverse perinatal and neonatal outcomes using a facility-based surveillance approach: A prospective observational study from the WHO Global Vaccine Safety Multi-Country Collaboration on safety in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Most perinatal and neonatal deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet, quality data on burden of adverse outcomes of pregnancy is limited in such countries.

METHODS

A network of 21 maternity units, across seven countries, undertook surveillance for low birthweight, preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), stillbirths, congenital microcephaly, in-hospital neonatal deaths, and neonatal infections in a cohort of over 85,000 births from May 2019 - August 2020. For each outcome, site-specific rates per 1,000 livebirths (or per 1,000 total births for stillbirth) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Descriptive sensitivity analysis was conducted to gain insight regarding underreporting of four outcomes at 16 sites.

FINDINGS

Estimated rates varied across countries and sites, ranging between 43·3-329·5 and 21·4-276·6/1000 livebirths for low birthweight and preterm birth respectively and 11·8-81/1,000 livebirths for SGA. No cases of congenital microcephaly were reported by three sites while the highest estimated rate was 13/1,000 livebirths. Neonatal infection and neonatal death rates varied between 1·8-73 and 0-59·9/1000 livebirths respectively while stillbirth rates ranged between 0-57·1/1000 total births across study sites. Results from the sensitivity analysis confirmed the underreporting of congenital microcephaly and SGA in our study.

INTERPRETATION

Our study establishes site-specific baseline rates for important adverse perinatal and neonatal outcomes and addresses a critical evidence gap towards improved monitoring of benefits and risks of emerging pregnancy and neonatal interventions.

FUNDING

The study was sponsored by the World Health Organization with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Operational lessons learned in conducting an international study on pharmacovigilance in pregnancy in resource-constrained settings: The WHO Global Vaccine safety Multi-Country collaboration project

The WHO Global Vaccine Safety Multi-Country Collaboration study on safety in pregnancy aims to estimate the minimum detectable risk for selected perinatal and neonatal outcomes and assess the applicability of standardized case definitions for study outcomes and maternal immunization in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper documents the operational lessons learned from the study. A prospective observational study was conducted across 21 hospitals in seven countries. All births occurring at sites were screened to identify select perinatal and neonatal outcomes from May 2019 to August 2020. Up to 100 cases per outcome were recruited to assess the applicability of standardized case definitions. A multi-pronged study quality assurance plan was implemented. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on site functioning and project implementation was also assessed. Multi-layered ethics and administrative approvals, limited clinical documentation, difficulty in identifying outcomes requiring in-hospital follow-up, and poor quality internet connectivity emerged as important barriers to study implementation. Use of electronic platforms, application of a rigorous quality assurance plan with frequent interaction between the central and site teams helped improve data quality. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted data collection for up to 6 weeks in some sites. Our study succeeded in establishing an international hospital-based surveillance network for evaluating perinatal and neonatal outcomes using common study protocol and procedures in geographically diverse sites with differing levels of infrastructure, clinical and health-utilization practices. The enhanced surveillance capacity of participating sites shall help support future pharmacovigilance efforts for pregnancy interventions.

The COVID-19 Schools Infection Survey in England: Protocol and participation profile for a prospective, observational cohort study (Preprint)

Background

One of the most debated questions in the COVID-19 pandemic has been the role of schools in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The COVID-19 Schools Infection Survey (SIS) aims to provide much-needed evidence addressing this issue.

Objective

We present the study protocol and participation profile for the SIS study, aimed at assessing the role of schools in SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission within school settings, and investigating how transmission within and from schools could be mitigated through the implementation of school COVID-19 control measures.

Methods

SIS was a multisite, prospective, observational cohort study conducted in a stratified random sample of primary and secondary schools in selected local authorities in England. A total of 6 biobehavioral surveys were planned among participating students and staff during the 2020-2021 academic year, between November 2020 and July 2021. Key measurements were SARS-CoV-2 virus prevalence, assessed by nasal swab polymerase chain reaction; anti-SARS-CoV-2 (nucleocapsid protein) antibody prevalence and conversion, assessed in finger-prick blood for staff and oral fluid for students; student and staff school attendance rates; feasibility and acceptability of school-level implementation of SARS-CoV-2 control measures; and investigation of selected school outbreaks. The study was approved by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency Research Support and Governance Office (NR0237) and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Ethics Review Committee (reference 22657).

Results

Data collection and laboratory analyses were completed by September 2021. A total of 22,585 individuals—1891 staff and 4654 students from 59 primary schools and 5852 staff and 10,188 students from 97 secondary schools—participated in at least one survey. Across all survey rounds, staff and student participation rates were 45.2% and 16.4%, respectively, in primary schools and 30% and 15.2%, respectively, in secondary schools. Although primary student participation increased over time, and secondary student participation remained reasonably consistent, staff participation declined across rounds, especially for secondary school staff (3165/7583, 41.7% in round 1 and 2290/10,374, 22.1% in round 6). Although staff participation overall was generally reflective of the eligible staff population, student participation was higher in schools with low absenteeism, a lower proportion of students eligible for free school meals, and from schools in the least deprived locations (in primary schools, 446/4654, 9.6% of participating students were from schools in the least deprived quintile compared with 1262/22,225, 5.7% of eligible students).

Conclusions

We outline the study design, methods, and participation, and reflect on the strengths of the SIS study as well as the practical challenges encountered and the strategies implemented to address these challenges. The SIS study, by measuring current and incident infection over time, alongside the implementation of control measures in schools across a range of settings in England, aims to inform national guidance and public health policy for educational settings.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/34075

WHO global vaccine safety multi-country collaboration project on safety in pregnancy: Assessing the level of diagnostic certainty using standardized case definitions for perinatal and neonatal outcomes and maternal immunization

Standardized case definitions strengthen post-marketing safety surveillance of new vaccines by improving generated data, interpretation and comparability across surveillance systems. The Global Alignment of Immunization Safety Assessment in Pregnancy (GAIA) project developed standardized case definitions for 21 key obstetric and neonatal terms following the Brighton Collaboration (BC) methodology. In this prospective cohort study, we assessed the applicability of GAIA definitions for maternal immunization exposure and for low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), stillbirth, neonatal death, neonatal infection, and congenital microcephaly. We identified the missing data elements that prevented identified cases and exposures from meeting the case definition (level 1-3 of BC diagnostic certainty). Over a one-year period (2019-2020), all births occurring in 21 sites (mostly secondary and tertiary hospitals) in 6 Low Middle Income Countries and 1 High Income Country were recorded and the 7 perinatal and neonatal outcome cases were identified from routine medical records. Up to 100 cases per outcome were recruited sequentially from each site. Most cases recruited for LBW, preterm birth and neonatal death met the GAIA case definitions. Birth weight, a key parameter for all three outcomes, was routinely recorded at all sites. The definitions for SGA, stillbirth, neonatal infection (particularly meningitis and respiratory infection) and congenital microcephaly were found to be less applicable. The main barrier to obtaining higher levels of diagnostic certainty was the lack of sonographic documentation of gestational age in first or second trimester. The definition for maternal immunization exposure was applicable, however, the highest level of diagnostic certainty was only reached at two sites. Improved documentation of maternal immunization will be important for vaccine safety studies. Following the field-testing of these 8 GAIA definitions, several improvements are suggested that may lead to their easier implementation, increased standardization and hence comparison across studies.

Population Health Surveillance Using Mobile Phone Surveys in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Methodology and Sample Representativeness of a Cross-sectional Survey of Live Poultry Exposure in Bangladesh

Background

Population-based health surveys are typically conducted using face-to-face household interviews in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, telephone-based surveys are cheaper, faster, and can provide greater access to hard-to-reach or remote populations. The rapid growth in mobile phone ownership in LMICs provides a unique opportunity to implement novel data collection methods for population health surveys.

Objective

This study aims to describe the development and population representativeness of a mobile phone survey measuring live poultry exposure in urban Bangladesh.

Methods

A population-based, cross-sectional, mobile phone survey was conducted between September and November 2019 in North and South Dhaka City Corporations (DCC), Bangladesh, to measure live poultry exposure using a stratified probability sampling design. Data were collected using a computer-assisted telephone interview platform. The call operational data were summarized, and the participant data were weighted by age, sex, and education to the 2011 census. The demographic distribution of the weighted sample was compared with external sources to assess population representativeness.

Results

A total of 5486 unique mobile phone numbers were dialed, with 1047 respondents completing the survey. The survey had an overall response rate of 52.2% (1047/2006) and a co-operation rate of 89.0% (1047/1176). Initial results comparing the sociodemographic profile of the survey sample to the census population showed that mobile phone sampling slightly underrepresented older individuals and overrepresented those with higher secondary education. After weighting, the demographic profile of the sample population matched well with the latest DCC census population profile.

Conclusions

Probability-based mobile phone survey sampling and data collection methods produced a population-representative sample with minimal adjustment in DCC, Bangladesh. Mobile phone–based surveys can offer an efficient, economic, and robust way to conduct surveillance for population health outcomes, which has important implications for improving population health surveillance in LMICs.

Frequency and patterns of exposure to live poultry and the potential risk of avian influenza transmission to humans in urban Bangladesh

Avian influenza is endemic in Bangladesh, where greater than 90% of poultry are marketed through live poultry markets (LPMs). We conducted a population-based cross-sectional mobile telephone survey in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh to investigate the frequency and patterns of human exposure to live poultry in LPMs and at home. Among 1047 urban residents surveyed, 74.2% (95% CI 70.9-77.2) reported exposure to live poultry in the past year, with the majority of exposure occurring on a weekly basis. While visiting LPMs was less common amongst females (40.3%, 95% CI 35.0-45.8) than males (58.9%, 95% CI 54.0-63.5), females reported greater poultry exposure through food preparation, including defeathering (13.2%, 95% CI 9.5-17.9) and eviscerating (14.8%, 95% CI 11.2-19.4) (p < 0.001). A large proportion of the urban population is frequently exposed to live poultry in a setting where avian influenza viruses are endemic in LPMs. There is thus not only ample opportunity for spillover of avian influenza infections into humans in Dhaka, Bangladesh, but also greater potential for viral reassortment which could generate novel strains with pandemic potential.

1134Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Coxiella burnetti infection in the general population of Senegal

Background

Coxiella burnetti, the causal agent of Q-fever, contributes to aetiologies of fevers of unknown origin (FUO) in West Africa. We compared its seroprevalence between Dakar, the largest urban centre in Senegal, and Niakhar, a rural area, and investigated the association to contacts with livestock and dairy products consumption.

Methods

Large cross-sectional surveys; households randomly selected using a two-stage cluster sampling. Within households, 1-2 participants were randomly selected using a Kish grid. A small blood sample was collected to detect phase 1 and 2 Coxiella burnetti IgG using ELISA, and a questionnaire was administered. Random effect logistic regression models were used to measure the association with risk factors.

Results

Overall, 2102 participants recruited in Dakar and 1156 in Niakhar. The prevalence of C. burnetti was high in both settings, but higher in rural Niakhar (37%) than urban Dakar (30%), even after adjusting for age, sex and socio-economic status (difference=7%; 95%CI [1.1% to 13%]; p = 0.02). In Dakar, ownership of sheep was associated with greater risk (OR = 1.26; 95%CI[1.00-1.59]; p = 0.048). Livestock contact was associated with higher risk in rural areas, but not in urban areas (helping cattle’s parturition (OR = 2.10; 95%CI [1.38-3.22]; p &lt; 0.01 and abortion (OR = 1.95; 95%CI[1.18-3.23]; p = 0.009). There was no association between dairy products’ consumption and Q-fever in both settings.

Conclusions

The high seroprevalence in urban and rural settings suggest that Q-fever should be seriously considered by clinicians when investigating fevers in both settings. The observed association with livestock contact is consistent with the lack of use of personal protection equipment.

Key messages

Clinicians should consider Q-fever among differential diagnosis when investigating non-specific fevers in West Africa.

Risk Factors for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection among Camel Populations, Southern Jordan, 2014-2018

After the first detection of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in camels in Jordan in 2013, we conducted 2 consecutive surveys in 2014–2015 and 2017–2018 investigating risk factors for MERS-CoV infection among camel populations in southern Jordan. Multivariate analysis to control for confounding demonstrated that borrowing of camels, particularly males, for breeding purposes was associated with increased MERS-CoV seroprevalence among receiving herds, suggesting a potential route of viral transmission between herds. Increasing age, herd size, and use of water troughs within herds were also associated with increased seroprevalence. Closed herd management practices were found to be protective. Future vaccination strategies among camel populations in Jordan could potentially prioritize breeding males, which are likely to be shared between herds. In addition, targeted management interventions with the potential to reduce transmission between herds should be considered; voluntary closed herd schemes offer a possible route to achieving disease-free herds.

The prevalence and risk factors for human Brucella species infection in a cross-sectional survey of a rural population in Punjab, India

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is an important neglected zoonosis. Effective cattle vaccines are available but are infrequently used in India, where rural households commonly own one or two cattle as sources of protein and income. We assessed the prevalence of infection and risk factors in humans.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional sero-survey in randomly selected individuals in 60 villages in Punjab. Infection prevalence was assessed by positive Rose Bengal testing or immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Risk factors were adjusted for potential confounding using multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 1927 subjects who were approached, 93% agreed to participate. Age-standardised prevalence for Brucella infection was 2.24% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61 to 3.11). More than 60% of households kept cattle and 10% assisted with calving or abortions. Nearly all individuals consumed boiled cow/buffalo milk from their own or neighbours' cattle and 3.3% consumed goat's milk. There was a 2.18 times increased odds (95% CI 0.96 to 4.95) of infection with calving/abortions and a 4.26 times increased odds (95% CI 1.33 to 13.6) with goat's milk but not bovine milk consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

An association with calving/abortions and goat's milk consumption was seen. Brucella vaccination of household livestock would reduce the risk to humans in such settings. Additional measures include biosecurity training around calving/abortions, education to boil all milk and for healthcare workers to test for brucellosis.

The identification and validity of congenital malformation diagnoses in UK electronic health records: A systematic review

PURPOSE

To describe the methods used to identify and validate congenital malformation diagnoses recorded in UK electronic health records, and the results of validation studies.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for publications between 1987 and 2019 that involved identifying congenital malformations from UK electronic health records using diagnostic codes. The methods and code-lists used to identify congenital malformations, and the methods and results of validations, were examined.

RESULTS

We retrieved 54 eligible studies; 36 identified congenital malformations from primary care data and 18 from secondary care data alone or in combination with birth and/or death records. Identification in secondary care data relied on codes from the 'Q' chapter for congenital malformations in ICD-10. In contrast, studies using primary care data frequently used additional codes outside of the 'P' chapter for congenital malformation diagnoses in Read, although the exact codes used were not always clear. Eight studies validated diagnoses identified in primary care data. The positive predictive value was highest (80%-100%) for congenital malformations overall, major malformations, and heart defects although the validity of the reference standard used was often uncertain. It was lowest for neural tube defects (71%) and developmental hip dysplasia (56%).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies identifying congenital malformations from primary care data provided limited details about the methods used. The few validation studies were limited to diagnoses recorded in primary care. Further assessments of all measures of validity in both data sources and of other malformation subgroups are needed, using robust reference standards and adhering to reporting guidelines.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation due to influenza in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review assesses the literature for estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisation in children. Studies of any design to 08 June 2020 were included if the outcome was hospitalisation, participants were 17 years old or less and influenza infection was laboratory-confirmed. A random-effects meta-analysis of 37 studies that used a test-negative design gave a pooled seasonal IVE against hospitalisation of 53.3% (47.2-58.8) for any influenza. IVE was higher against influenza A/H1N1pdm09 (68.7%, 56.9-77.2) and lowest against influenza A/H3N2 (35.8%, 23.4-46.3). Estimates by vaccine type ranged from 44.3% (30.1-55.7) for LAIV to 68.9% (53.6-79.2) for inactivated vaccines. IVE estimates were higher in seasons when the circulating influenza strains were antigenically matched to vaccine strains (59.3%, 48.3-68.0). Influenza vaccination gives moderate overall protection against influenza-associated hospitalisation in children supporting annual vaccination. IVE varies by influenza subtype and vaccine type.

Influenza surveillance capacity improvements in Africa during 2011-2017

Background

Influenza surveillance helps time prevention and control interventions especially where complex seasonal patterns exist. We assessed influenza surveillance sustainability in Africa where influenza activity varies and external funds for surveillance have decreased.

Methods

We surveyed African Network for Influenza Surveillance and Epidemiology (ANISE) countries about 2011‐2017 surveillance system characteristics. Data were summarized with descriptive statistics and analyzed with univariate and multivariable analyses to quantify sustained or expanded influenza surveillance capacity in Africa.

Results

Eighteen (75%) of 24 ANISE members participated in the survey; their cumulative population of 710 751 471 represent 56% of Africa's total population. All 18 countries scored a mean 95% on WHO laboratory quality assurance panels. The number of samples collected from severe acute respiratory infection case‐patients remained consistent between 2011 and 2017 (13 823 vs 13 674 respectively) but decreased by 12% for influenza‐like illness case‐patients (16 210 vs 14 477). Nine (50%) gained capacity to lineage‐type influenza B. The number of countries reporting each week to WHO FluNet increased from 15 (83%) in 2011 to 17 (94%) in 2017.

Conclusions

Despite declines in external surveillance funding, ANISE countries gained additional laboratory testing capacity and continued influenza testing and reporting to WHO. These gains represent important achievements toward sustainable surveillance and epidemic/pandemic preparedness.

Small-area level socio-economic deprivation and tuberculosis rates in England: An ecological analysis of tuberculosis notifications between 2008 and 2012

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) rates in England are among the highest in high-income countries. Poverty and historic and current immigration from high TB incidence parts of the world are two major drivers of tuberculosis in England. However, little has been done in recent years to examine socio-economic trends in TB rates in England, and to disentangle the role of deprivation from that of place of birth in the current TB epidemiology.

Objectives

To assess the association between England’s 2008–2012 TB notification rates and small area-level deprivation, together and separately in the UK-born and foreign-born populations.

Methods

Ecological analysis of the association between quintiles of England’s 2010 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and TB rates at the Lower-layer Super Output Area (LSOA; average population ~1500) level, using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, adjusting for age, sex, urban/rural area classification, and area-level percentage of non-White residents.

Results

There was a log-linear gradient between area-deprivation levels and TB rates, with overall TB rates in the most deprived quintile areas three times higher than the least deprived quintile after adjustment for age and sex (IRR = 3.35; 95%CI: 3.16 to 3.55). The association and gradient were stronger in the UK-born than the foreign-born population, with UK-born TB rates in the most deprived quintiles about two-and-a-half times higher than the least deprived quintile (IRR = 2.39; 95%CI: 2.19 to 2.61) after controlling for age, sex, urban/rural classification and percentage of non-White residents; whereas the comparable figure for foreign-born persons was 80% higher (IRR = 1.78; 95%CI: 1.66 to 1.91).

Conclusions

Socio-economic deprivation continues to play a substantial role in sustaining the TB epidemic in England, especially in the UK-born population. This supports the case for further investigations of the underlying social- determinants of TB.

The association between chronic kidney disease and tuberculosis; a comparative cohort study in England

BACKGROUND

People with end-stage kidney disease have an increased risk of active tuberculosis (TB). Previous systematic reviews have demonstrated that patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have increased risk of severe community-acquired infections. We investigated the association between CKD (prior to renal replacement therapy) and incidence of TB in UK General Practice.

METHODS

Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 242,349 patients with CKD (stages 3-5) (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for ≥3 months) between April 2004 and March 2014 were identified and individually matched (by age, gender, general practice and calendar time) to a control from the general population without known CKD. The association between CKD (overall and by stage) and incident TB was investigated using a Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes.

RESULTS

The incidence of TB was higher amongst patients with CKD compared to those without CKD: 14.63 and 9.89 cases per 100,000 person-years. After adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status, diabetes and COPD, the association between CKD and TB remained (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.85). The association may be stronger amongst those from non-white ethnic minorities (adjusted RR 2.83, 95%CI 1.32-6.03, p-value for interaction with ethnicity = 0.061). Amongst those with CKD stages 3-5, there was no evidence of a trend with CKD severity.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD is associated with an increased risk of TB diagnosis in a UK General Practice cohort. This group of patients should be considered for testing and treating for latent TB.

Overrepresentation of South Asian ethnic groups among cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during the first phase of the 2009 pandemic in England

BACKGROUND

During the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic in England in 2009, morbidity and mortality were higher in patients of South Asian (Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi) ethnic minority groups.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to provide insights in the representation of this group among reported cases, indicating susceptibility and exposure.

METHODS

All laboratory-confirmed cases including basic demographic and limited clinical information that were reported to the FluZone surveillance system between April and October 2009 were retrieved. Missing ethnicity data were imputed using the previously developed and validated South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm (SANGRA). Differences between ethnic groups were calculated using chi-square, log-rank and t tests and rate ratios. Geographic clustering was compared using Ripley's K functions.

RESULTS

SANGRA identified 2447 (28%) of the total of 8748 reported cases as South Asian. South Asian cases were younger (P < .001), more often male (P = .002) and more often from deprived areas (P < .001) than cases of other ethnic groups. Time between onset of symptoms and laboratory sampling was longer in this group (P < .001), and they were less often advised antiviral treatment (P < .001), however, declined treatment less. The highest cumulative incidence was seen in the West Midlands region (32.7/10 000), London (7.0/10 000) and East of England region (5.7/10 000).

CONCLUSIONS

People of South Asian ethnic groups were disproportionally affected by the first wave of the influenza pandemic in England in 2009. The findings presented contribute to further understanding of demographic, socioeconomic and ethnic factors of the outbreak and inform future influenza preparedness to ensure appropriate prevention and care.

Effectiveness of BCG Vaccination Against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Adults: A Cross-sectional Analysis of a UK-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

BCG appears to reduce acquisition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children, measured using interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs). We explored whether BCG vaccination continues to be associated with decreased prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection in adults.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from adult contacts of tuberculosis cases participating in a UK cohort study. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) of BCG, ascertained based on presence of a scar or vaccination history, against latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), measured via IGRA, was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. The effects of age at BCG and time since vaccination were also explored.

RESULTS

Of 3453 recent tuberculosis contacts, 27.5% had LTBI. There was strong evidence of an association between BCG and LTBI (adjusted odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval, .56-.87; P = .0017) yielding a VE of 30%. VE declined with time since vaccination but there was evidence that LTBI prevalence was lower amongst vaccinated individuals even >20 years after vaccination, compared with nonvaccinated participants.

CONCLUSIONS

BCG is associated with lower prevalence of LTBI in adult contacts of tuberculosis. These results contribute to growing evidence that suggests BCG may protect against M. tuberculosis infection as well as disease. This has implications for immunization programs, vaccine development, and tuberculosis control efforts worldwide.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01162265.

Seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy and the risk of major congenital malformations in live-born infants: A 2010-2016 historical cohort study

Background

Available evidence indicates that seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination during pregnancy protects both the mother and her newborn and is safe. Nevertheless, ongoing safety assessments are important in sustaining vaccine uptake. Few studies have explored safety in relation to major congenital malformations (MCMs), particularly in the first trimester when most organogenesis occurs.

Methods

Anonymized UK primary care data (the Clinical Practice Research Datalink), including a recently developed Pregnancy Register, were used to identify live-born singletons delivered between 2010 and 2016. Maternal influenza vaccination was determined using primary care records and stratified by trimester. Ascertainment of MCMs from infant primary care records was maximized by linkage to hospitalization data and death certificates. The relationship between vaccination and MCMs recorded in the year after delivery and in early childhood was then assessed using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

A total of 78 150 live-birth pregnancies were identified: 6872 (8.8%) were vaccinated in the first trimester, 11 678 (14.9%) in the second, and 12 931 (16.5%) in the third. Overall, 5707 live births resulted in an infant with an MCM recorded in the year after delivery and the adjusted hazard ratio when comparing first-trimester vaccination to no vaccination was 1.06 (99% CI, .94–1.19; P = .2). Results were similar for second- and third-trimester vaccination and for analyses considering MCMs recorded beyond the first birthday.

Conclusions

In this large, population-based historical cohort study there was no evidence to suggest that seasonal influenza vaccine was associated with MCMs when given in the first trimester or subsequently in pregnancy.

Evaluation of potential risk of transmission of avian influenza A viruses at live bird markets in response to unusual crow die-offs in Bangladesh

In response to unusual crow die‐offs from avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection during January‐February 2017 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, a One Health team assessed potential infection risks in live bird markets (LBMs). Evidence of aerosolized avian influenza A viruses was detected in LBMs and in the respiratory tracts of market workers, indicating exposure and potential for infection. This study highlighted the importance of surveillance platforms with a coordinated One Health strategy to investigate and mitigate zoonotic risk.

Safety profile of rubella vaccine administered to pregnant women: A systematic review of pregnancy related adverse events following immunisation, including congenital rubella syndrome and congenital rubella infection in the foetus or infant

BACKGROUND

Data on the safety of inadvertent rubella vaccination in pregnancy is important for rubella vaccination programs aimed at preventing congenital rubella syndrome.

METHODS

The association between monovalent rubella or combination vaccinations in or shortly before pregnancy and potential harm to the foetus was examined by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis using fixed effect methods and simulation.

RESULTS

Four cohort studies of inadvertently vaccinated and unvaccinated women were found, 15 cohorts of pregnant women who were rubella susceptible at time of inadvertent vaccination and 9 cohort studies with no information on susceptibility and case series. No case of vaccine associated congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) was identified. Cohort studies with an unvaccinated comparison group were limited in number and size, and based on these only a theoretical additional risk of 6 or more cases of CRS per 1000 vaccinated women (0% observed, upper 95% CI 0.6%) could be excluded. Based on cohorts of vaccinated rubella susceptible pregnant women a maximum theoretical risk of 1 CRS case in 1008 vaccinated women (0% observed, upper 95% CI 0.099%) was estimated. Asymptomatic rubella vaccine virus infection of the neonate was also noted (fixed effects estimate of risk overall 1.74%, 95% CI 1.21, 2.28).

CONCLUSION

There is no evidence that CRS is caused by rubella-containing vaccines but transplacental vaccine virus infection can occur. CRS is effectively prevented by vaccination, thus the risk/benefit balance is unequivocally in favour of vaccination. The data confirm previous recommendations that inadvertent vaccination during pregnancy is not an indication for termination of pregnancy.

Brucellosis in dairy herds: A public health concern in the milk supply chains of West and Central Africa

•

Brucellosis is endemically established among dairy herds in West and Central Africa.

•

Brucella spp. infection is present at high levels in dairy herds in Lomé and Bamako.

•

Brucellosis poses a public health concern in dairy chains of West and Central Africa.

•

Brucellosis control programs are urgently needed in West and Central Africa.

Ten herd-level cross-sectional studies were conducted in peri-urban dairy production areas of seven West and Central African countries (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo). The objectives were to estimate herd level Brucella spp. seroprevalence and identify risk factors for seropositivity.

In each of the ten study areas, herds (between 52 and 142 per area, total = 965) were selected probabilistically and a structured questionnaire was administered to gather information on their structure and management. A bulk milk sample from each herd was tested by indirect ELISA for Brucella spp. For each area, herd seroprevalence estimates were obtained after adjusting for the assumed performance of the diagnostic test. Herd level risk factors for Brucella spp. seropositivity were identified by means of stratified logistic regression, with each peri-urban zone as a stratum. Area-specific models were also explored.

Estimated herd seroprevalences were: Lomé (Togo) 62.0% (95% CI:55.0–69.0), Bamako (Mali) 32.5% (95% CI:28.0–37.0), Bujumbura (Burundi) 14.7% (95%CI:9.4–20.8), Bamenda (Cameroon) 12.6% (95% CI:7.6–21.9), Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) 3.0% (95% CI:1.0–9.1), Ngaoundere (Cameroon) 2.3% (95% CI:1.0–7.0), Thies (Senegal) 1.3% (95% CI:0.1, 5.3), Niamey (Niger) 1.2% (95% CI:0.08-5.3), Dakar (Senegal) 0.2% (95% CI:0.01–1.7) and Niakhar (Senegal) <0.04%. Logistic regression modelling revealed transhumant herds to be at lower risk of infection (adjusted OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.13 - 0.5) and in one of the areas (Bamenda), regular purchase of new animals was found to be strongly associated with Brucella spp. seropositivity (adjusted OR = 5.3, 95% CI: 1.4–25.9). Our findings confirm that Brucella spp. circulates among dairy cattle supplying milk to urban consumers in West and Central Africa, posing a serious public health concern. Control programs are urgently needed in areas such as Lomé or Bamako, where more than 30% of the herds show evidence of infection.

The duration of protection of school-aged BCG vaccination in England: a population-based case-control study

Background

Evidence of protection from childhood Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) against tuberculosis (TB) in adulthood, when most transmission occurs, is important for TB control and resource allocation.

Methods

We conducted a population-based case-control study of protection by BCG given to children aged 12-13 years against tuberculosis occurring 10-29 years later. We recruited UK-born White subjects with tuberculosis and randomly sampled White community controls. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using case-cohort Cox regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors, including socio-economic status, smoking, drug use, prison and homelessness. Vaccine effectiveness (VE = 1 - hazard ratio) was assessed at successive intervals more than 10 years following vaccination.

Results

We obtained 677 cases and 1170 controls after a 65% response rate in both groups. Confounding by deprivation, education and lifestyle factors was slight 10-20 years after vaccination, and more evident after 20 years. VE 10-15 years after vaccination was 51% (95% CI 21, 69%) and 57% (CI 33, 72%) at 15-20 years. Subsequently, BCG protection appeared to wane; 20-25 years VE = 25% (CI -14%, 51%) and 25-29 years VE = 1% (CI -84%, 47%). Based on multiple imputation of missing data (in 17% subjects), VE estimated in the same intervals after vaccination were similar [56% (CI 33, 72%), 57% (CI 36, 71%), 25% (-10, 48%), 21% (-39, 55%)].

Conclusions

School-aged BCG vaccination offered moderate protection against tuberculosis for at least 20 years, which is longer than previously thought. This has implications for assessing the cost-effectiveness of BCG vaccination and when evaluating new TB vaccines.

Observational study to estimate the changes in the effectiveness of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination with time since vaccination for preventing tuberculosis in the UK

BACKGROUND

Until recently, evidence that protection from the bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination lasted beyond 10 years was limited. In the past few years, studies in Brazil and the USA (in Native Americans) have suggested that protection from BCG vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) in childhood can last for several decades. The UK's universal school-age BCG vaccination programme was stopped in 2005 and the programme of selective vaccination of high-risk (usually ethnic minority) infants was enhanced.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the duration of protection of infant and school-age BCG vaccination against TB in the UK.

METHODS

Two case-control studies of the duration of protection of BCG vaccination were conducted, the first on minority ethnic groups who were eligible for infant BCG vaccination 0-19 years earlier and the second on white subjects eligible for school-age BCG vaccination 10-29 years earlier. TB cases were selected from notifications to the UK national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system from 2003 to 2012. Population-based control subjects, frequency matched for age, were recruited. BCG vaccination status was established from BCG records, scar reading and BCG history. Information on potential confounders was collected using computer-assisted interviews. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as a function of time since vaccination, using a case-cohort analysis based on Cox regression.

RESULTS

In the infant BCG study, vaccination status was determined using vaccination records as recall was poor and concordance between records and scar reading was limited. A protective effect was seen up to 10 years following infant vaccination [< 5 years since vaccination: vaccine effectiveness (VE) 66%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17% to 86%; 5-10 years since vaccination: VE 75%, 95% CI 43% to 89%], but there was weak evidence of an effect 10-15 years after vaccination (VE 36%, 95% CI negative to 77%; p = 0.396). The analyses of the protective effect of infant BCG vaccination were adjusted for confounders, including birth cohort and ethnicity. For school-aged BCG vaccination, VE was 51% (95% CI 21% to 69%) 10-15 years after vaccination and 57% (95% CI 33% to 72%) 15-20 years after vaccination, beyond which time protection appeared to wane. Ascertainment of vaccination status was based on self-reported history and scar reading.

LIMITATIONS

The difficulty in examining vaccination sites in older women in the high-risk minority ethnic study population and the sparsity of vaccine record data in the later time periods precluded robust assessment of protection from infant BCG vaccination > 10 years after vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Infant BCG vaccination in a population at high risk for TB was shown to provide protection for at least 10 years, whereas in the white population school-age vaccination was shown to provide protection for at least 20 years. This evidence may inform TB vaccination programmes (e.g. the timing of administration of improved TB vaccines, if they become available) and cost-effectiveness studies. Methods to deal with missing record data in the infant study could be explored, including the use of scar reading.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. During the conduct of the study, Jonathan Sterne, Ibrahim Abubakar and Laura C Rodrigues received other funding from NIHR; Ibrahim Abubakar and Laura C Rodrigues have also received funding from the Medical Research Council. Punam Mangtani received funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Practices Exposing Humans to Avian Influenza Viruses, Their Prevalence, and Rationale

Almost all human infections by avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are transmitted from poultry. A systematic review was conducted to identify practices associated with human infections, their prevalence, and rationale. Observational studies were identified through database searches. Meta-analysis produced combined odds ratio estimates. The prevalence of practices and rationales for their adoptions were reported. Of the 48,217 records initially identified, 65 articles were included. Direct and indirect exposures to poultry were associated with infection for all investigated viral subtypes and settings. For the most frequently reported practices, association with infection seemed stronger in markets than households, for sick and dead than healthy poultry, and for H7N9 than H5N1. Practices were often described in general terms and their frequency and intensity of contact were not provided. The prevalence of practices was highly variable across studies, and no studies comprehensively explored reasons behind the adoption of practices. Combining epidemiological and targeted anthropological studies would increase the spectrum and detail of practices that could be investigated and should aim to provide insights into the rationale(s) for their existence. A better understanding of these rationales may help to design more realistic and acceptable preventive public health measures and messages.

The Relationship Between School Holidays and Transmission of Influenza in England and Wales

School closure is often considered as an influenza control measure, but its effects on transmission are poorly understood. We used 2 approaches to estimate how school holidays affect the contact parameter (the per capita rate of contact sufficient for infection transmission) for influenza using primary care data from England and Wales (1967-2000). Firstly, we fitted an age-structured susceptible-infectious-recovered model to each year's data to estimate the proportional change in the contact parameter during school holidays as compared with termtime. Secondly, we calculated the percentage difference in the contact parameter between holidays and termtime from weekly values of the contact parameter, estimated directly from simple mass-action models. Estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis, where appropriate. From fitting to the data, the difference in the contact parameter among children aged 5-14 years during holidays as compared with termtime ranged from a 36% reduction to a 17% increase; estimates were too heterogeneous for meta-analysis. Based on the simple mass-action model, the contact parameter was 17% (95% confidence interval: 10, 25) lower during holidays than during termtime. Results were robust to the assumed proportions of infections that were reported and individuals who were susceptible when the influenza season started. We conclude that school closure may reduce transmission during influenza outbreaks.

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

BACKGROUND

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination.

METHODS

Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods.

RESULTS

The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Duration of BCG protection against tuberculosis and change in effectiveness with time since vaccination in Norway: a retrospective population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about how long the BCG vaccine protects against tuberculosis. We assessed the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Norwegian-born individuals.

METHODS

In this retrospective population-based cohort study, we studied Norwegian-born individuals aged 12-50 years who were tuberculin skin test (TST) negative and eligible for BCG vaccination as part of the last round of Norway's mandatory mass tuberculosis screening and BCG vaccination programme between 1962 and 1975. We excluded individuals who had tuberculosis before or in the year of screening and those with unknown TST and BCG status. We obtained TST and BCG information and linked it to the National Tuberculosis Register, population and housing censuses, and the population register for emigrations and deaths. We followed individuals up to their first tuberculosis episode, emigration, death, or Dec 31, 2011. We used Cox regressions to estimate VE against all tuberculosis and just pulmonary tuberculosis by time since vaccination, adjusted for age, time, county-level tuberculosis rates, and demographic and socioeconomic indicators.

FINDINGS

Median follow-up was 41 years (IQR 32-49) for 83 421 BCG-unvaccinated and 44 years (41-46) for 297 905 vaccinated individuals, with 260 tuberculosis episodes. Tuberculosis rates were 3·3 per 100 000 person-years in unvaccinated and 1·3 per 100 000 person-years in vaccinated individuals. The adjusted average VE during 40 year follow-up was 49% (95% CI 26-65), although after 20 years, the VE was not significant (up to 9 years VE [excluding tuberculosis episodes in the first 2 years] 61% [95% CI 24-80]; 10-19 years 58% [27-76]; 20-29 years 38% [-32 to 71]; 30-40 years 42% [-24 to 73]). VE against pulmonary tuberculosis up to 9 years (excluding tuberculosis episodes in the first 2 years) was 67% (95% CI 27-85), 10-19 years was 63% (32-80), 20-29 years was 50% (-19 to 79), and 30-40 years was 40% (-46 to 76).

INTERPRETATION

Findings are consistent with long-lasting BCG protection, but waning of VE with time. The vaccine could be more cost effective than has been previously estimated

FUNDING

Norwegian Institute of Public Health and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context.

Cancer survival differences between South Asians and non-South Asians of England in 1986-2004, accounting for age at diagnosis and deprivation

BACKGROUND

South Asian migrants show lower cancer incidence than their host population in England for most major cancers. We seek to study the ethnic differences in survival from cancer.

METHODS

We described and modelled the effect of ethnicity, time, age and deprivation on survival for the five most incident cancers in each sex in South Asians in England between 1986 and 2004 using national cancer registry data. South Asian ethnicity was flagged using the validated name-recognition algorithm SANGRA (South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm).

RESULTS

We observed survival advantage in South Asians in earlier periods. This ethnic gap either remained constant or narrowed over time. By 2004, age-standardised net survival was comparable for all cancers except three in men, where South Asians had higher survival 5 years after diagnosis: colorectal (58.9% vs 53.6%), liver (15.0% vs 9.4%) and lung (15.9% vs 9.3%). Compared with non-South Asians, South Asians experienced a slower increase in breast and prostate cancer survival, both cancers associated with either a screening programme or an early diagnosis test. We did not find differential patterns in survival by deprivation between both ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering recent survival trends, appropriate action is required to avoid deficits in cancer survival among South Asians in the near future.

Safety of immunization during pregnancy: a review of the evidence of selected inactivated and live attenuated vaccines

Vaccine-preventable infectious diseases are responsible for significant maternal, neonatal, and young infant morbidity and mortality. While there is emerging scientific evidence, as well as theoretical considerations, indicating that certain vaccines are safe for pregnant women and fetuses, policy formulation is challenging because of perceived potential risks to the fetus. This report presents an overview of available evidence on pregnant women vaccination safety monitoring in pregnant women, from both published literature and ongoing surveillance programs. Safety data were reviewed for vaccines against diseases which increase morbidity in pregnant women, their fetus or infant as well as vaccines which are used in mass vaccination campaigns against diseases. They include inactivated seasonal and pandemic influenza, mono- and combined meningococcal polysaccharide and conjugated vaccines, tetanus toxoid and acellular pertussis combination vaccines, as well as monovalent or combined rubella, oral poliomyelitis virus and yellow fever vaccines. No evidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes has been identified from immunization of pregnant women with these vaccines.

Effect of BCG vaccination against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether BCG vaccination protects against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection as assessed by interferon γ release assays (IGRA) in children.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis. Searches of electronic databases 1950 to November 2013, checking of reference lists, hand searching of journals, and contact with experts.

SETTING

Community congregate settings and households.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Vaccinated and unvaccinated children aged under 16 with known recent exposure to patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Children were screened for infection with M tuberculosis with interferon γ release assays.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study results relating to diagnostic accuracy were extracted and risk estimates were combined with random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The primary analysis included 14 studies and 3855 participants. The estimated overall risk ratio was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.92), indicating a protective efficacy of 19% against infection among vaccinated children after exposure compared with unvaccinated children. The observed protection was similar when estimated with the two types of interferon γ release assays (ELISpot or QuantiFERON). Restriction of the analysis to the six studies (n=1745) with information on progression to active tuberculosis at the time of screening showed protection against infection of 27% (risk ratio 0.73, 0.61 to 0.87) compared with 71% (0.29, 0.15 to 0.58) against active tuberculosis. Among those infected, protection against progression to disease was 58% (0.42, 0.23 to 0.77).

CONCLUSIONS

BCG protects against M tuberculosis infection as well as progression from infection to disease.Trial registration PROSPERO registration No CRD42011001698 (www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/).

The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies

BACKGROUND

School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies.

METHODS

We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns.

RESULTS

School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20-60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the current evidence on the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination against tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests that the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) may exceed previous estimates with potential implications for estimating clinical and cost-efficacy.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the protection and duration of protection provided by BCG vaccination against tuberculosis, explore how this protection changes with time since vaccination, and examine the reasons behind the variation in protection and the rate of waning of protection.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Cochrane Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Web of Knowledge, Biosciences Information Service (BIOSIS), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACs), MEDCARIB Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched from inception to May 2009. Index to Theses, System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (SIGLE), Centre for Agricultural Bioscience International (CABI) Abstracts, Scopus, Article First, Academic Complete, Africa-Wide Information, Google Scholar, Global Health, British National Bibliography for Report Literature, and clinical trial registration websites were searched from inception to October 2009.

REVIEW METHODS

Electronic databases searches, screening of identified studies, data extraction and analysis were undertaken. Meta-analysis was used to present numerical and graphical summaries of clinical efficacy and efficacy by time since vaccination. Evidence of heterogeneity was assessed using the tau-squared statistic. Meta-regression allowed the investigation of observed heterogeneity. Factors investigated included BCG strain, latitude, stringency of pre-BCG vaccination tuberculin testing, age at vaccination, site of disease, study design and vulnerability to biases. Rate of waning of protection was estimated using the ratio of the measure of efficacy after 10 years compared with the efficacy in the first 10 years of a study.

RESULTS

Study selection. A total of 21,030 references were identified, providing data on 132 studies after abstract and full-text review. Efficacy. Protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is variable, ranging from substantial protection in the UK MRC trial {rate ratio 0.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.31]}, to absence of clinically important benefit, as in the large Chingleput trial [rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.25)] and greater in latitudes further away from the equator. BCG vaccination efficacy was usually high, and varied little by form of disease (with higher protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis) or study design when BCG vaccination was given only to infants or to children after strict screening for tuberculin sensitivity. High levels of protection against death were observed from both trials and observational studies. The observed protective effect of BCG vaccination did not differ by the strain of BCG vaccine used in trials.

DURATION

Reviewed studies showed that BCG vaccination protects against pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis for up to 10 years. Most studies either did not follow up participants for long enough or had very few cases after 15 years. This should not be taken to indicate an absence of effect: five studies (one trial and four observational studies) provided evidence of measurable protection at least 15 years after vaccination. Efficacy declined with time. The rate of decline was variable, with faster decline in latitudes further from the equator and in situations where BCG vaccination was given to tuberculin-sensitive participants after stringent tuberculin testing.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitation of this review relates to quality of included trials, most of which were conducted before current standards for reporting were formulated. In addition, data were lacking in some areas and the review had to rely on evidence from observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

BCG vaccination protection against tuberculosis varies between populations, to an extent that cannot be attributed to chance alone. Failure to exclude those already sensitised to mycobacteria and study latitude closer to the equator were associated with lower efficacy. These factors explained most of the observed variation. There is good evidence that BCG vaccination protection declines with time and that protection can last for up to 10 years. Data on protection beyond 15 years are limited; however, a small number of trials and observational studies suggest that BCG vaccination may protect for longer. Further studies are required to investigate the duration of protection by BCG vaccination.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.