Estimated neonatal survival of very preterm births across the care pathway: a UK cohort 2016-2020

OBJECTIVE

Currently used estimates of survival are nearly 10 years old and relate to only those babies admitted for neonatal care. Due to ongoing improvements in neonatal care, here we update estimates of survival for singleton and multiple births at 22+0 to 31+6 weeks gestational age across the perinatal care pathway by gestational age and birth weight.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data.

SETTING

A national cohort from the UK and British Crown Dependencies.

PATIENTS

Babies born at 22+0 to 31+6 weeks gestational age from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Survival to 28 days.

RESULTS

Estimates of neonatal survival are provided for babies: (1) alive at the onset of care during the birthing process (n=43 763); (2) babies where survival-focused care was initiated (n=42 004); and (3) babies admitted for neonatal care (n=41 158). We have produced easy-to-use survival charts for singleton and multiple births. Generally, survival increased with increasing gestational age at birth and with increasing birth weight. For all births with a birthweight over 1000 g, survival was 90% or higher at all three stages of care.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival estimates are a vital tool to support and supplement clinical judgement within perinatal care. These up-to-date, national estimates of survival to 28 days are provided based on three stages of the perinatal care pathway to support ongoing clinical care. These novel results are a key resource for policy and practice including counselling parents and informing care provision.

Calculation of effective dose of phenylephrine bolus for treatment of post-spinal hypotension in pre-eclamptic patients undergoing caesarean section - a non-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with pre-eclampsia require smaller vasopressor doses compared with those with normotension for management of post-spinal hypotension during caesarean section. However, the literature has little evidence as to the phenylephrine dose required for patients with pre-eclampsia.

METHODS

Fifty patients, with either pre-eclampsia or normotension, and developing post-spinal hypotension during caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia, were studied. Women in both groups did not receive prophylactic vasopressors. The first patient in each group received phenylephrine 50 µg to treat the first episode of hypotension, defined as fall of systolic blood pressure ≥20% from baseline or an absolute value <100 mmHg. If hypotension was corrected within one minute it was considered a 'success'. The doses for the subsequent patients were determined by responses to all previous patients, according to a variation of Narayana's rule for the up-down sequential allocation method.

RESULTS

The 95% effective dose (ED95) and 50% effective dose (ED50) of phenylephrine was 41.7 µg (95% CI 33.8 to 49.6 µg) and 29.1 µg (95% CI 26.0 to 32.2 µg) respectively in the pre-eclampsia group, and 64.9 µg (95% CI 54.1 to 75.7 µg) and 47.3 µg (95% CI 39.7 to 54.9 µg) respectively in the normotensive group. The proportionate reduction in phenylephrine dose ranged from 33% (95% CI 18 to 44%) to 40% (95% CI 19 to 52%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with pre-eclampsia may need a 33% to 40% reduction in the first phenylephrine bolus dose, compared with patients with normotension, for the treatment of the first episode of post-spinal hypotension.

Comparing biparametric to multiparametric MRI in the diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer in biopsy-naive men (PRIME): a prospective, international, multicentre, non-inferiority within-patient, diagnostic yield trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Prostate MRI is a well-established tool for the diagnostic work-up for men with suspected prostate cancer (PCa). Current recommendations advocate the use of multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), which is composed of three sequences: T2-weighted sequence (T2W), diffusion-weighted sequence (DWI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced sequence (DCE). Prior studies suggest that a biparametric MRI (bpMRI) approach, omitting the DCE sequences, may not compromise clinically significant cancer detection, though there are limitations to these studies, and it is not known how this may affect treatment eligibility. A bpMRI approach will reduce scanning time, may be more cost-effective and, at a population level, will allow more men to gain access to an MRI than an mpMRI approach.

METHODS

Prostate Imaging Using MRI±Contrast Enhancement (PRIME) is a prospective, international, multicentre, within-patient diagnostic yield trial assessing whether bpMRI is non-inferior to mpMRI in the diagnosis of clinically significant PCa. Patients will undergo the full mpMRI scan. Radiologists will be blinded to the DCE and will initially report the MRI using only the bpMRI (T2W and DWI) sequences. They will then be unblinded to the DCE sequence and will then re-report the MRI using the mpMRI sequences (T2W, DWI and DCE). Men with suspicious lesions on either bpMRI or mpMRI will undergo prostate biopsy. The main inclusion criteria are men with suspected PCa, with a serum PSA of ≤20 ng/mL and without prior prostate biopsy. The primary outcome is the proportion of men with clinically significant PCa detected (Gleason score ≥3+4 or Gleason grade group ≥2). A sample size of at least 500 patients is required. Key secondary outcomes include the proportion of clinically insignificant PCa detected and treatment decision.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the National Research Ethics Committee West Midlands, Nottingham (21/WM/0091). Results of this trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications. Participants and relevant patient support groups will be informed about the results of the trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04571840.

Prognostic factors for the development and progression of proliferative diabetic retinopathy in people with diabetic retinopathy

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is characterised by neurovascular degeneration as a result of chronic hyperglycaemia. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) is the most serious complication of DR and can lead to total (central and peripheral) visual loss. PDR is characterised by the presence of abnormal new blood vessels, so-called "new vessels," at the optic disc (NVD) or elsewhere in the retina (NVE). PDR can progress to high-risk characteristics (HRC) PDR (HRC-PDR), which is defined by the presence of NVD more than one-fourth to one-third disc area in size plus vitreous haemorrhage or pre-retinal haemorrhage, or vitreous haemorrhage or pre-retinal haemorrhage obscuring more than one disc area. In severe cases, fibrovascular membranes grow over the retinal surface and tractional retinal detachment with sight loss can occur, despite treatment. Although most, if not all, individuals with diabetes will develop DR if they live long enough, only some progress to the sight-threatening PDR stage.  OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for the development of PDR and HRC-PDR in people with diabetes and DR.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Trials Register; 2022, Issue 5), Ovid MEDLINE, and Ovid Embase. The date of the search was 27 May 2022. Additionally, the search was supplemented by screening reference lists of eligible articles. There were no restrictions to language or year of publication.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included prospective or retrospective cohort studies and case-control longitudinal studies evaluating prognostic factors for the development and progression of PDR, in people who have not had previous treatment for DR. The target population consisted of adults (≥18 years of age) of any gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geographical location, with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) or PDR with less than HRC-PDR, diagnosed as per standard clinical practice. Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts, and full-text articles, to determine eligibility; discrepancies were resolved through discussion. We considered prognostic factors measured at baseline and any other time points during the study and in any clinical setting. Outcomes were evaluated at three and eight years (± two years) or lifelong.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form that we developed and piloted prior to the data collection stage. We resolved any discrepancies through discussion. We used the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool to assess risk of bias. We conducted meta-analyses in clinically relevant groups using a random-effects approach. We reported hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR), and risk ratios (RR) separately for each available prognostic factor and outcome, stratified by different time points. Where possible, we meta-analysed adjusted prognostic factors. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with an adapted version of the GRADE framework.   MAIN RESULTS: We screened 6391 records. From these, we identified 59 studies (87 articles) as eligible for inclusion. Thirty-five were prospective cohort studies, 22 were retrospective studies, 18 of which were cohort and six were based on data from electronic registers, and two were retrospective case-control studies. Twenty-three studies evaluated participants with type 1 diabetes (T1D), 19 with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and 17 included mixed populations (T1D and T2D). Studies on T1D included between 39 and 3250 participants at baseline, followed up for one to 45 years. Studies on T2D included between 100 and 71,817 participants at baseline, followed up for one to 20 years. The studies on mixed populations of T1D and T2D ranged from 76 to 32,553 participants at baseline, followed up for four to 25 years.  We found evidence indicating that higher glycated haemoglobin (haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)) levels (adjusted OR ranged from 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.32) to 2.10 (95% CI 1.64 to 2.69) and more advanced stages of retinopathy (adjusted OR ranged from 1.38 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.48) to 12.40 (95% CI 5.31 to 28.98) are independent risk factors for the development of PDR in people with T1D and T2D. We rated the evidence for these factors as of moderate certainty because of moderate to high risk of bias in the studies.  There was also some evidence suggesting several markers for renal disease (for example, nephropathy (adjusted OR ranged from 1.58 (95% CI not reported) to 2.68 (2.09 to 3.42), and creatinine (adjusted meta-analysis HR 1.61 (95% CI 0.77 to 3.36)), and, in people with T1D, age at diagnosis of diabetes (< 12 years of age) (standardised regression estimate 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48), increased triglyceride levels (adjusted RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.95), and larger retinal venular diameters (RR 4.28, 95% CI 1.50 to 12.19) may increase the risk of progression to PDR. The certainty of evidence for these factors, however, was low to very low, due to risk of bias in the included studies, inconsistency (lack of studies preventing the grading of consistency or variable outcomes), and imprecision (wide CIs). There was no substantial and consistent evidence to support duration of diabetes, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low- (LDL) and high- (HDL) density lipoproteins, gender, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), socioeconomic status, or tobacco and alcohol consumption as being associated with incidence of PDR. There was insufficient evidence to evaluate prognostic factors associated with progression of PDR to HRC-PDR.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Increased HbA1c is likely to be associated with progression to PDR; therefore, maintaining adequate glucose control throughout life, irrespective of stage of DR severity, may help to prevent progression to PDR and risk of its sight-threatening complications. Renal impairment in people with T1D or T2D, as well as younger age at diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM), increased triglyceride levels, and increased retinal venular diameters in people with T1D may also be associated with increased risk of progression to PDR. Given that more advanced DR severity is associated with higher risk of progression to PDR, the earlier the disease is identified, and the above systemic risk factors are controlled, the greater the chance of reducing the risk of PDR and saving sight.

In patients with type 2 diabetes chronic kidney disease is a modifiable cardiovascular risk factor

Background/Introduction

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. The modifiability of CKD-associated CV risk in patients with T2D across a spectrum of CKD stages remains unknown.

Purpose

To test whether CKD, as defined jointly by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR]), is a modifiable CV risk factor in patients with T2D. Furthermore, to estimate the population-wide reduction in first CV events in the US if all eligible patients were treated with finerenone.

Methods

We estimated the incidence rates of CV events (composite of CV death, non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalisation for heart failure) over a median follow-up of 3.0 years in 13,026 patients with CKD and T2D, treated with finerenone or placebo, in a joint analysis by eGFR and UACR categories. Patients were from FIDELITY, a prespecified pooled analysis of two phase III trials, and had an eGFR ≥25 ml/min/1.73 m2 and UACR 30–5000 mg/g at screening.The potential impact of finerenone treatment on the US population was evaluated by simulating the number of first CV events that could be prevented per year with finerenone, using incidence rates from FIDELITY and prevalence rates of CKD in patients with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Results

Lower eGFR and higher UACR categories were associated with higher incidences of CV events in finerenone and placebo recipients (Figure). Finerenone reduced CV risk versus placebo (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% CI 0.78–0.95; p=0.0018) without evidence of moderation of risk reduction by combined eGFR and UACR categories (p interaction = 0.66; Figure 1). Using NHANES, a total of 6.4 million treatment-eligible individuals with CKD and T2D were identified; 75% had CKD with an eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and 25% had CKD with an eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Simulations using this NHANES population projected that 1 year of finerenone treatment could prevent 38,359 CV events in US patients with CKD and T2D, with 66% of events prevented in patients with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2.

Conclusions

Higher albuminuria and lower eGFR are associated with increased CV risk in patients with T2D. Across a range of eGFR and albuminuria categories, CV risk is modifiable. Therefore, CKD is a modifiable CV risk factor in part mediated by mineralocorticoid receptor overactivation. UACR screening to identify patients with T2D and albuminuria with an eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 is likely to provide a significant opportunity for population benefits.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Bayer AG

P-696 Serum androgen levels and risk of endometrial hyperplasia and malignancy in patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome: a cross-sectional analysis

Study question

In patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), are serum androgen levels (total and free testosterone) associated with the risk of endometrial hyperplasia or cancer?

Summary answer

Patients with PCOS diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia or cancer had statistically significantly lower serum levels of androgens compared to PCOS patients with a normal endometrium.

What is known already

PCOS affects as many as 12% of women of reproductive age. Women with PCOS are almost three times as likely to develop endometrial cancer as women without PCOS, and endometrial hyperplasia precedes cancer in 36% of cases. Known risk factors of endometrial hyperplasia include anovulation, obesity, and resultant unopposed estrogen stimulation of the endometrium. A hallmark of PCOS is hyperandrogenism, however the effect of androgens on the endometrium is unclear.

Study design, size, duration

This was a cross-sectional, retrospective study of patients aged 18-40, being evaluated for oligomenorrhea and/or PCOS in the Reproductive Endocrinology Clinic at Los Angeles County Hospital, California, USA. All patients underwent an endometrial biopsy and serum measurement of free and total testosterone, estradiol, and hemoglobin A1c. Patients diagnosed with PCOS and with an endometrial biopsy diagnosis were included in the study. Patients on any hormonal therapy were excluded.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

In all patients included in the study, serum androgen levels (free and total testosterone) were measured by mass spectrometry. All endometrial biopsies were analyzed by an experienced histopathology, and all diagnoses of endometrial hyperplasia or cancer were confirmed by histologic studies.

Main results and the role of chance

Using the Rotterdam criteria, a total of 232 patients were diagnosed with PCOS during the study period. Of these patients, 161 patients (70%) had a normal endometrium, 19 (8%) were diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia (EH) without atypia, 38 (16%) were diagnosed with EH with atypia, and 14 (6%) were diagnosed with endometrial cancer. Patients with a normal endometrium had a mean total testosterone of 60.9 ng/dL and mean free testosterone of 9.3 ng/dL. Relatively, patients with EH without atypia, EH with atypia, and endometrial cancer had lower mean total testosterone levels of 50.1 ng/dL, 45.5 ng/dL, and 30.1 ng/dL, respectively (p-values 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, respectively), as well as lower mean free testosterone levels of 8.2 pg/mL, 6.7 pg/mL, and 5.5 pg/mL, respectively (p-values 0.04, 0.03, and 0.01, respectively). There was no significant difference in age, parity, BMI, estradiol levels, or hemoglobin A1c between the four groups.

Limitations, reasons for caution

Limitations of our study include its retrospective nature. Furthermore, hormone levels were only measured in the serum, and not in the endometrial tissue directly, which would give the most insight into their actions on the endometrium.

Wider implications of the findings

Our findings suggest that androgens have a protective effect on the endometrium against endometrial hyperplasia and cancer. Further studies are needed to evaluate the therapeutic potential role of androgens in the prevention or treatment of these conditions.

Trial registration number

not applicable

Patient perspectives on nipple-areola complex micropigmentation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Micropigmentation is a well-recognised option for nipple-areola complex reconstruction, as part of the breast reconstruction pathway for patients following mastectomy. As a part of delayed breast reconstruction, this treatment was put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aims

To assess the views of patients regarding micropigmentation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether their attitudes to seeking out this part of the reconstructive journey had been altered.

Methods

A questionnaire undertaken with 53 patients between August & September 2020 attending the Micropigmentation clinic.

Findings

81.1% of patients reported COVID-19 had not impacted their decision, with a similar proportion happy to proceed with the treatment at the time of questioning.

Conclusions

The results highlight the importance of nipple-areola complex to our patients’ reconstructive journey.

Diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis methods: A scoping review and empirical assessment

OBJECTIVE

To a) identify methodological and application papers reporting a model developed specifically for diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA) or a hierarchical meta-regression method for comparing at least three index tests; b) review and summarize the characteristics of the methods and the application papers; and c) compare DTA-NMA and hierarchical meta-regression methods empirically.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS

We performed a scoping review and searched major databases until 3^rd March 2021. We assessed the characteristics of the identified methods, conducted a descriptive analysis of characteristics of the application articles, and applied the DTA-NMA and meta-regression methods to the available data.

RESULTS

We included 49 articles, of which 9 were methodological (describing 11 DTA-NMA methods) and 40 were application papers (data available for 32 DTA-NMAs). Our results showed a steep increase in recent years in DTA-NMA publications. DTA-NMA models may lead to different results. Although sensitivity estimates were comparable between meta-regression and DTA-NMA models, specificity estimates were higher in meta-regression.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of a DTA-NMA model will depend on the available data, including the use of different thresholds for test positivity, different study designs, and software familiarity. Selection between the methods may impact on the NMA results, especially for specificity.

The association between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and echocardiographic parameters in hospitalised adults with COVID-19 - a retrospective analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammatory biomarker with prognostic value in several cardiovascular conditions. Hyperinflammation contributes to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is characterized by a multi-organ dysfunction. Cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 include arrhythmias, myocardial damage, acute heart failure, and acute coronary syndrome. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) can be used to assess cardiovascular structure and function non-invasively.

Purpose

To investigate the association between NLR at admission and TTE abnormalities in hospitalised adults with COVID-19.

Methods

This single-centre retrospective study was conducted at a COVID-19 referral hospital in Indonesia. All consecutive hospitalised adults with confirmed COVID-19 who underwent TTE assessments between 3 April 2020 to 6 April 2021 were included. Comprehensive data including NLR at admission, demographics, co-morbidities, peak severity of COVID-19, and TTE parameters were extracted from electronic medical records. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to determine the optimal NLR cut-off for prediction of severe-critical COVID-19. Patients with high and low NLR were compared using the chi-square test and odds ratios (OR), with a confidence level of 95%.

Results

A total of 487 patients were included in this study. From ROC curve analysis, the area under curve was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76 – 0.84). The optimal NLR cut-off was determined as 4.42, which predicted severe-critical COVID-19 with a sensitivity of 74.5% and a specificity of 74.6%. Based on this, the low NLR and high NLR groups had 223 and 264 patients, respectively.  Male sex, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease occurred more frequently in the high NLR group (P &lt; 0.05). On TTE assessment, the high NLR group had higher odds of left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.14 – 5.45), LV wall motion abnormalities (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.41 – 4.87), valve abnormalities (OR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.35 – 3.07), and right ventricular (RV) dysfunction (OR: 10.55; 95% CI: 2.46 – 45.25).

Conclusions

COVID-19 patients with a high NLR at admission had higher odds of abnormal TTE findings, including LV systolic dysfunction, LV wall motion abnormalities, valve abnormalities, and RV dysfunction. This indicates a possible link between inflammation and cardiovascular dysfunction in COVID-19, which must be confirmed in larger prospective studies. Abstract Figure. ROC Curve Analysis  Abstract Figure. Odds Ratios for TTE Abnormalities

The association between transthoracic echocardiographic parameters and severity of COVID-19 in hospitalised adults - a retrospective analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing global pandemic with more than 220 million cases and 4.5 million deaths reported worldwide. Its clinical spectrum varies widely, and non-invasive prognostic markers are valuable as they can guide efficient resource allocation.  Cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 include myocardial injury, acute heart failure, and arrhythmias. Both de novo cardiovascular complications and pre-existing cardiovascular co-morbidities are associated with a poor prognosis. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) can be used to assess cardiovascular structure and function non-invasively.

Purpose

To investigate the association between TTE parameters and severity of disease in hospitalised adults with confirmed COVID-19

Methods

This single-centre retrospective analysis was conducted at a COVID-19 referral hospital in Indonesia. All consecutive adults hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19 who underwent TTE assessment between 3 April 2020 to 6 April 2021 were included. Comprehensive data including demographics, peak COVID-19 severity, pre-existing co-morbidities, and TTE findings were extracted from electronic medical records. Patients with mild-moderate and severe-critical disease were compared using the chi-square test and odds ratios (OR), with a confidence level of 95%.

Results

A total of 488 patients were included in this study; 202 with mild-moderate disease and 286 with severe-critical disease. Frequency of old age (>60 years), obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and congestive heart failure were higher in the severe-critical group (P < 0.05). On TTE assessment, Patients with severe-critical disease had higher odds of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (OR: 2.20; CI: 1.49 – 3.24), LV wall motion abnormality (OR: 3.33; CI: 1.68 – 6.60), diastolic dysfunction (OR: 1.46; CI: 1.02 – 2.11), valve abnormality (OR: 1.93; CI: 1.27 – 2.92), and right ventricular (RV) dysfunction (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.63 – 18.73). After matching for age, obesity, and diabetes, patients with severe-critical COVID-19 continued to have higher odds of LVH (OR: 1.91; CI: 1.21 – 3.02), LV wall motion abnormality (OR: 2.76; CI: 1.28 – 5.96), diastolic dysfunction (OR: 1.55; CI: 1.00 – 2.38), and RV dysfunction (OR: 3.86; CI: 1.06 – 14.08).

Conclusions

The presence of LVH, LV wall motion abnormality, diastolic dysfunction, and RV dysfunction on TTE assessment were associated with severe-critical disease in hospitalised adults with COVID-19. These findings must be validated in a larger prospective study.

A protocol for the VISION study: An indiVidual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials comparing MRI-targeted biopsy to standard transrectal ultraSound guided bIopsy in the detection of prOstate cancer

Background

Transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) guided biopsy for prostate cancer is prone to random and systemic error and has been shown to have a negative predictive value of 70%. PRECISION and PRECISE are among the first randomised studies to evaluate the new MRI-targeted biopsy (MRI-TB) pathway with a non-paired design to detect clinically significant prostate cancer and avoid unnecessary treatment. The trials’ results individually demonstrated non-inferiority of MRI-TB compared to TRUS biopsy. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was planned from the outset of the two trials in parallel and this IPD meta-analysis aims to further elucidate the utility of MRI-TB as the optimal diagnostic pathway for prostate cancer.

Methods and materials

This study is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021249263). A search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Registered Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, and ClinicalTrials.gov was performed up until 4^th February 2021. Only randomised controlled trials (PRECISE, PRECISION and other eligible trials) comparing the MRI-targeted biopsy pathway and traditional TRUS biopsy pathway will be included. The primary outcome of the review is the proportion of men diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer in each arm (Gleason ≥ 3+4 = 7). IPD and study-level data and characteristics will be sought from eligible studies. Analyses will be done primarily using an intention-to-treat approach, and a one-step IPD meta-analysis will be performed using generalised linear mixed models. A non-inferiority margin of 5 percentage points will be used. Heterogeneity will be quantified using the variance parameters from the mixed model. If there is sufficient data, we will investigate heterogeneity by exploring the effect of the different conducts of MRIs, learning curves of MRI reporting and MRI targeted biopsies.

Trial registration

This systematic review is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021249263)

Polypharmacy and Smoking as Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors Associated with Symptom Severity in Men with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms in Primary Care: Findings from the PriMUS Study

Polypharmacy and smoking are associated with higher symptom severity in men with lower urinary tract symptoms presenting to primary care. These are potentially modifiable risk factors that can be targeted when managing these patients.

Neonatal outcomes following phenylephrine or norepinephrine for treatment of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension at emergency caesarean section in women with fetal compromise - a randomised controlled study

BACKGROUND

Norepinephrine is as effective as phenylephrine for management of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension. Most of the studies comparing these vasopressors have been conducted in healthy pregnant women undergoing elective caesarean section. In the current study, we tested the null hypothesis that there is no difference in neonatal outcome when phenylephrine or norepinephrine is used to treat spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in women undergoing emergency caesarean section for fetal compromise.

METHODS

Patients undergoing caesarean section for fetal compromise who developed spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension were randomised to receive phenylephrine 100 μg or norepinephrine 8 μg for treatment of each hypotensive episode, defined as systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg. Umbilical cord arterial and venous blood samples were obtained for blood gas analysis. The primary outcome measure was umbilical artery pH.

RESULTS

One hundred patients (50 in each group) were studied. There was no significant difference in umbilical artery pH between the two groups (mean difference 0.001; 95% CI -0.032 to 0.034). The number of hypotensive episodes, vasopressor boluses required, the incidence of bradycardia, heart rate and blood pressure trends following vasopressor administration, and the incidence of nausea/vomiting were not significantly different between groups.

CONCLUSION

Phenylephrine 100 μg and norepinephrine 8 μg were not significantly different in terms of neonatal outcome when administered as intravenous boluses for treatment of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in parturients undergoing emergency caesarean sections for fetal compromise.

Stepwise interventions for improving hand hygiene compliance in a level 3 academic neonatal intensive care unit in north India

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated effect of sequentially introducing four WHO-recommended interventions to promote hand-hygiene compliance in tertiary-care NICU.

STUDY DESIGN

Four dedicated research nurses directly observed doctors and nurses to record success in hand-hygiene opportunities at randomly selected NICU beds and randomly sampled time-slots in four phases (of 4-weeks each): I-Baseline, II-Self-directed learning; III-Participatory learning; IV-Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV); and V-CCTV-plus (with feedback).

FINDINGS

Hand-hygiene compliance changed from 61.8% (baseline) to 77% (end) with overall relative change: 24.6% (95% CI 18, 32; p value= 0.003); compared with preceding phase, relative changes of 21% (15, 28; <0.001), 4% (0, 8; 0.008), -10% (-13, -6; <0.001), and 10% (5, 15; <0.001) during phases II, III, IV, and V, respectively were observed. Rise in hand-hygiene compliance was higher for after-WHO-moments (12.7%; upto 2.5-folds for moment 5, <0.001) compared to before-WHO-moments (5.2%). Educational interventions, feedback and monitoring WHO moments can improve hand-hygiene compliance significantly among health-care providers in NICU.

Use of Elastic Stain Technique to Detect Histologically Occult Vascular Invasion in Resected Colorectal Carcinomas at Danbury Hospital

Introduction/Objective

Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) represents a leading cause of cancer related death in the western world and is by far the most common malignancy of the gastrointestinal tract. Vascular invasion (VI), in particular extramural VI by tumor is recognized as a feature of colorectal cancer progression, and the latter is an independent prognostic indicator of disease recurrence and survival in colorectal carcinoma. The purpose of this study is to detect VI in resected colorectal tumor samples and compare sensitivity of elastic staining to routine H&E staining at Danbury Hospital.

Methods/Case Report

A total of 50 colorectal cancer specimens from segmental colon resection or endoscopic polypectomy performed at Danbury Hospital over a 3-year period were included. Histologic sections of each tumor were assessed for the presence of VI by routine H&E staining. Superficial recuts of each tumor were subjected to elastic Von Giesen staining and reassessed for the presence of vascular invasion. Sensitivity of routine H&E staining for the detection of VI was calculated with elastic stain serving as the “gold standard”.

Results (if a Case Study enter NA)

In this study, VI by carcinoma was identified by H&E stain and/or elastic stain in 17 (34%) out of 50 cases. H&E stain and elastic stain detected VI in 12 (24%) and 16 (32%) out of 50 cases, respectively. There was a single case for which H&E stain showed vascular invasion that was not confirmed by elastic stain, representing a false negative for the H&E technique. Elastic staining detected VI in 5 cases for which the corresponding H&E stain was falsely negative for VI. Overall, vascular invasion status (absent or present) was concordant in 44 (88 %) of the 50 cases. With elastic stain deemed the “gold standard” for VI detection, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of H&E stain were found to be 68.7%, 97.0%, 86.8%, and 91.6%, respectively.

Conclusion

Although H & E staining of colorectal carcinoma tissue sections have a very good specificity and positive predictive value for the detection of VI, this technique suffers from a suboptimal sensitivity. For these reasons, we agree with previously published literature reports that the use of elastic stain as a supplement to H & E staining should be strongly considered for the proper evaluation and prognostication of colorectal carcinoma specimens.

Knowledge assessment and outcomes of otolaryngology practice amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in a busy ENT department

INTRODUCTION

Otolaryngology health personnel are at high risk of acquiring COVID-19 disease and, hence, are likely to have high stress levels. This study was designed to evaluate the feedback of otolaryngology healthcare workers in ENT departments who are managing patients in the coronavirus pandemic.

METHODS

A questionnaire focused on all aspects of healthcare delivery was completed by otolaryngology healthcare workers.

RESULTS

The findings, based on statistical analyses, included high stress levels and inadequate disease-related information in these workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare authorities need to take care of issues related to mental health in healthcare professionals in addition to spreading awareness about safe practices. Further studies are needed to continuously monitor feedback from personnel as the coronavirus pandemic unravels in the future.

Quantification of bioactive compounds in guava at different ripening stages

Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is one of the most important tropical fruits belonging to the genus Psidium and the Myrtaceae family and claim to have phenolic compounds that have been reported to possess strong antioxidant activity. This study was aimed to evaluate the bioactive constituents in guava cultivars at different ripening stages by HPLC. The five guava cultivars were selected at different ripening stages and the bioactive components were analysed by high-pressure liquid chromatography. The quantification of bioactive compounds revealed that the highest amount of bioactive compounds was found in cultivar Safeda at the unripe stage, while a minimum amount was found in ripe Apple Colour guava cultivar. The six bioactive compounds were quantified in the range of gallic acid (9.46-63.08 mg/100 g), quercetin (0.11-2.51 mg/100 g), myrcetin (0.09-0.034 mg/100 g), ascorbic acid (7.45-75.07 mg/100 g), apegenin (0.01-0.032 mg/100 g) and lycopene (0.34-0.92 mg/100 g). The exploratory evaluation of guava samples was performed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the bioactive compounds, lycopene, myricetin, and quercetin are dominant variables on this PC1 (61.52%) (Scores better than 0.7), thereby causing greater variability among these samples. The second principal component (PC2) represents 16.54% of the total variance and the ascorbic acid, gallic acid and apeginin (score better than 0.7), are the dominant variables on this PC.

Supercomputer-Based Ensemble Docking Drug Discovery Pipeline with Application to Covid-19

We present a supercomputer-driven pipeline for in silico drug discovery using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) and ensemble docking. Ensemble docking makes use of MD results by docking compound databases into representative protein binding-site conformations, thus taking into account the dynamic properties of the binding sites. We also describe preliminary results obtained for 24 systems involving eight proteins of the proteome of SARS-CoV-2. The MD involves temperature replica exchange enhanced sampling, making use of massively parallel supercomputing to quickly sample the configurational space of protein drug targets. Using the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, more than 1 ms of enhanced sampling MD can be generated per day. We have ensemble docked repurposing databases to 10 configurations of each of the 24 SARS-CoV-2 systems using AutoDock Vina. Comparison to experiment demonstrates remarkably high hit rates for the top scoring tranches of compounds identified by our ensemble approach. We also demonstrate that, using Autodock-GPU on Summit, it is possible to perform exhaustive docking of one billion compounds in under 24 h. Finally, we discuss preliminary results and planned improvements to the pipeline, including the use of quantum mechanical (QM), machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) methods to cluster MD trajectories and rescore docking poses.

Practical consensus recommendations on fertility preservation in patients with breast cancer

Young women diagnosed with cancer today have a greater chance of long-term survival than ever before. Successful survivorship for this group of patients includes maintaining a high quality of life after a cancer diagnosis and treatment; however, lifesaving treatments such as chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery can impact survivors by impairing reproductive and endocrine health. Expert oncologists along with reproductive medicine specialists discuss fertility preservation options in this chapter since fertility preservation is becoming a priority for young women with breast cancer. This expert group used data from published literature, practical experience and opinion of a large group of academic oncologists to arrive at these practical consensus recommendations for the benefit of community oncologists.

Concomitant botanical medicine use among patients participating in commercial prostate cancer trials

OBJECTIVES

Patients with cancer frequently use botanical medications. The concomitant use of such medications by patients on commercial trials has not been well-described, despite the importance of these trials for evaluating the safety and efficacy of new agents. We sought to describe the use of botanical medications taken by patients with prostate cancer enrolled on global commercial trials.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Regulatory repository of commercial clinical trial data.

INTERVENTIONS

Anti-cancer therapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Botanical and medication use data were pooled across six international commercial randomized trials for metastatic prostate cancer with detailed information on medication and indications. Botanical products were considered to have potential for drug interaction if they led to a change in drug exposure in human trials. Potential for interaction was ascertained by PubMed review. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis.

RESULTS

Of 7318 enrolled patients, 700 (10 %) reported botanical use at any time and 653 (9%) reported use of botanical products while on trial. Nearly half of botanical product types were not classified by plant (43 %). The highest proportion of botanical use was among patients in Asian countries (32 %), followed by patients in North America (13 %). Eighty-six different types of botanical products were used; of these, nineteen had a patient-reported anti-cancer indication.

CONCLUSIONS

Botanical medicine use among patients with prostate cancer in commercial trials is moderate, although it varies by region. Practitioners should be aware of the use of botanical interventions in a clinical trial context.

Rapid diagnostic tests for Plasmodium vivax malaria in endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax (P vivax) is a focus of malaria elimination. It is important because P vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection are co-endemic in some areas. There are asymptomatic carriers of P vivax, and the treatment for P vivax and Plasmodium ovale malaria differs from that used in other types of malaria. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) will help distinguish P vivax from other malaria species to help treatment and elimination. There are RDTs available that detect P vivax parasitaemia through the detection of P vivax-specific lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) antigens.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of RDTs for detecting P vivax malaria infection in people living in malaria-endemic areas who present to ambulatory healthcare facilities with symptoms suggestive of malaria; and to identify which types and brands of commercial tests best detect P vivax malaria.

SEARCH METHODS

We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases up to 30 July 2019: Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in the Cochrane Library; MEDLINE (PubMed); Embase (OVID); Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S), both in the Web of Science.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies comparing RDTs with a reference standard (microscopy or polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) in blood samples from patients attending ambulatory health facilities with symptoms suggestive of malaria in P vivax-endemic areas.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

For each included study, two review authors independently extracted data using a pre-piloted data extraction form. The methodological quality of the studies were assessed using a tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. We grouped studies according to commercial brand of the RDT and performed meta-analysis when appropriate. The results given by the index tests were based on the antibody affinity (referred to as the strength of the bond between an antibody and an antigen) and avidity (referred to as the strength of the overall bond between a multivalent antibody and multiple antigens). All analyses were stratified by the type of reference standard. The bivariate model was used to estimate the pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), this model was simplified when studies were few. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 10 studies that assessed the accuracy of six different RDT brands (CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test, Falcivax Device Rapid test, Immuno-Rapid Malaria Pf/Pv test, SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pv test, OnSite Pf/Pv test and Test Malaria Pf/Pv rapid test) for detecting P vivax malaria. One study directly compared the accuracy of two RDT brands. Of the 10 studies, six used microscopy, one used PCR, two used both microscopy and PCR separately and one used microscopy corrected by PCR as the reference standard. Four of the studies were conducted in Ethiopia, two in India, and one each in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia and Sudan. The studies often did not report how patients were selected. In the patient selection domain, we judged the risk of bias as unclear for nine studies. We judged all studies to be of unclear applicability concern. In the index test domain, we judged most studies to be at low risk of bias, but we judged nine studies to be of unclear applicability concern. There was poor reporting on lot testing, how the RDTs were stored, and background parasitaemia density (a key variable determining diagnostic accuracy of RDTs). Only half of the included studies were judged to be at low risk of bias in the reference standard domain, Studies often did not report whether the results of the reference standard could classify the target condition or whether investigators knew the results of the RDT when interpreting the results of the reference standard. All 10 studies were judged to be at low risk of bias in the flow and timing domain. Only two brands were evaluated by more than one study. Four studies evaluated the CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test against microscopy and two studies evaluated the Falcivax Device Rapid test against microscopy. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 99% (95% CI 94% to 100%; 251 patients, moderate-certainty evidence) and 99% (95% CI 99% to 100%; 2147 patients, moderate-certainty evidence) for CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test. For a prevalence of 20%, about 206 people will have a positive CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test result and the remaining 794 people will have a negative result. Of the 206 people with positive results, eight will be incorrect (false positives), and of the 794 people with a negative result, two would be incorrect (false negative). For the Falcivax Device Rapid test, the pooled sensitivity was 77% (95% CI: 53% to 91%, 89 patients, low-certainty evidence) and the pooled specificity was 99% (95% CI: 98% to 100%, 621 patients, moderate-certainty evidence), respectively. For a prevalence of 20%, about 162 people will have a positive Falcivax Device Rapid test result and the remaining 838 people will have a negative result. Of the 162 people with positive results, eight will be incorrect (false positives), and of the 838 people with a negative result, 46 would be incorrect (false negative).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test was found to be highly sensitive and specific in comparison to microscopy for detecting P vivax in ambulatory healthcare in endemic settings, with moderate-certainty evidence. The number of studies included in this review was limited to 10 studies and we were able to estimate the accuracy of 2 out of 6 RDT brands included, the CareStart Malaria Pf/Pv Combo test and the Falcivax Device Rapid test. Thus, the differences in sensitivity and specificity between all the RDT brands could not be assessed. More high-quality studies in endemic field settings are needed to assess and compare the accuracy of RDTs designed to detect P vivax.

Independent predictors of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: modeling from the CREDENCE trial

Background

SGLT2 inhibitors have been shown to reduce hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). We sought to determine independent baseline predictors for HHF specifically in a population with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

CREDENCE randomized 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes and CKD to canagliflozin 100 mg versus placebo. We evaluated the baseline clinical and demographic factors using multivariate regression modeling to identify the independent predictors of HHF.

Results

Overall, 230 participants (89 canagliflozin; 141 placebo) had at least 1 HHF event. Canagliflozin reduced the incidence of HHF compared with placebo (4.0% vs 6.4%; HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.47–0.80). Participants with HHF events postrandomization were older (65.8 vs 62.9 y), and had a longer duration of diabetes (17.4 vs 15.7 y), higher prevalence of prior HF (30.4% vs 14.0%), higher urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (1347 vs 904 mg/g), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (51.5 vs 56.4 mL/min/1.73m2), and higher prevalence of prior cardiovascular disease (65.7% vs 49.6%) compared to those without HHF. Independent predictors of HHF are shown in the Table.

Conclusions

HHF is common in patients with type 2 diabetes and CKD. Canagliflozin reduces HHF by 39% compared with placebo. Higher urinary albumin:creatinine ratio was the most potent predictor of HHF and should be part of patient risk assessment.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Janssen Research & Development, LLC

Consensus and development of document for management of stabilized acute decompensated heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in India

Aim

Ensuring adherence to guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) is an effective strategy to reduce mortality and readmission rates for heart failure (HF). Use of a checklist is one of the best tools to ensure GDMT. The aim was to develop a consensus document with a robust checklist for stabilized acute decompensated HF patients with reduced ejection fraction. While there are multiple checklists available, an India-specific checklist that is easy to fill and validated by regional and national subject matter experts (SMEs) is required.

Methodology

A total of 25 Cardiology SMEs who consented to participate from India discussed data from literature, current evidence, international guidelines and practical experiences in two national and four regional meetings.

Results

Recommendations included HF management, treatment optimization, and patient education. The checklist should be filled at four time points- (a) transition from intensive care unit to ward, (b) at discharge, (c) 1st follow-up and (d) subsequent follow-up. The checklist is the responsibility of the consultant or the treating physician which can be delegated to a junior resident or a trained HF nurse.

Conclusion

This checklist will ensure GDMT, simplify transition of care and can be used by all doctors across India. Institutions, associations, and societies should recommend this checklist for adaptability in public and private hospital. Hospital administrations should roll out policy for adoption of checklist by ensuring patient files have the checklist at the time of discharge and encourage practice of filling it diligently during follow-up visits.

Supercomputer-Based Ensemble Docking Drug Discovery Pipeline with Application to Covid-19

We present a supercomputer-driven pipeline for in-silico drug discovery using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) and ensemble docking. We also describe preliminary results obtained for 23 systems involving eight protein targets of the proteome of SARS CoV-2. THe MD performed is temperature replica-exchange enhanced sampling, making use of the massively parallel supercomputing on the SUMMIT supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with which more than 1ms of enhanced sampling MD can be generated per day. We have ensemble docked repurposing databases to ten configurations of each of the 23 SARS CoV-2 systems using AutoDock Vina. We also demonstrate that using Autodock-GPU on SUMMIT, it is possible to perform exhaustive docking of one billion compounds in under 24 hours. Finally, we discuss preliminary results and planned improvements to the pipeline, including the use of quantum mechanical (QM), machine learning, and AI methods to cluster MD trajectories and rescore docking poses.

PRImary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms in men: protocol for development and validation of a diagnostic and clinical decision support tool (the PriMUS study)

INTRODUCTION

Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) is a bothersome condition affecting older men which can lead to poor quality of life. General practitioners (GPs) currently have no easily available assessment tools to help effectively diagnose causes of LUTS and aid discussion of treatment with patients. Men are frequently referred to urology specialists who often recommend treatments that could have been initiated in primary care. GP access to simple, accurate tests and clinician decision tools are needed to facilitate accurate and effective patient management of LUTS in primary care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PRImary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms (PriMUS) is a prospective diagnostic accuracy study based in primary care. The study will determine which of a number of index tests used in combination best predict three urodynamic observations in men who present to their GP with LUTS. These are detrusor overactivity, bladder outlet obstruction and/or detrusor underactivity. Two cohorts of participants, one for development of the prototype diagnostic tool and other for validation, will undergo a series of simple index tests and the invasive reference standard (invasive urodynamics). We will develop and validate three diagnostic prediction models based on each condition and then combine them with management recommendations to form a clinical decision support tool.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is from the Wales Research Ethics Committee 6. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conferences, and results will be of interest to professional and patient stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN10327305.

SAT0354 TYPE 3 INNATE LYMPHOID CELLS ARE KEY DRIVERS OF PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS

Background:

Psoriasis (PsO) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are two types of chronic inflammatory diseases that share a similar cytokines profile. About 30% of PsO patients also develop a joint involvement, but the underlying mechanism is still unclear. Innate lymphoid cells (ILC) and specifically the type 3 ILCs (ILC3s) have raised increasing interest as possible player in the pathogenesis of both diseases, as they produce the pathological key cytokine IL-17A.

Objectives:

We addressed the contribution of ILC3s to the pathogenesis of PsO and PsA in patients as well as murinein vivomodels.

Methods:

130 patients satisfying the Classification Criteria for Psoriatic Arthritis (CASPAR), 40 patients with PsO and 35 healthy volunteers were enrolled in the study. Information regarding clinical features, laboratory parameters were collected and psoriasis area severity index (PASI), disease activity score 28 (DAS28), disease activity in psoriatic arthritis (DAPSA), minimal disease activity score (MDA) were calculated. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and high-resolution peripheral CT (HR-pQCT) were taken and PsA MRI score (PsAMRIS) was assessed. Flow cytometric analysis was performed and IFNγ-producing ILC1s, IL-4/IL-5-producing ILC2s and IL-17/IL-22-producing ILC3s were identified among ILCs. Multivariate linear regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics software. Different in vivo models were used to assess functional implications of ILCs at different time points of the disease. Joint inflammation was assessed through MRI and H&E staining of ankle areas. Peripheral blood was obtained from mice of each group and flow cytometry analysis was performed. High dimensional analyses including RNA-seq was performed to identify phenotypic characteristics of ILCs implemented into the pathogenesis of the disease.

Results:

Total number of circulating ILCs were increased in PsA patients compared to PsO and healthy controls (p<0,001). Linear regression analyses of the relationship between disease activity and circulating ILCs counts showed strongest correlation between ILC3s counts and DAPSA score. ILC3s counts also correlated with imaging signs of inflammation such as enthesitis, synovitis, erosions and/or ostoeproliferation as assessed by MRI and HR-pQCT. Musculoskeletal inflammation in mice was predominantly associated with p19 expression and IL-23R-signaling as assessed by RNA-seq. These effects were also accompanied by a strong upregulation of IL-17-producing lymphocytes within the inflamed joint niche with a dominant presence of ILC3s. Multi-channel immunofluorescence and confocal laser scanning microscopy revealed not only upregulation of ILC3 induced IL-17 production within the synovial membrane but also in peri-articular areas of the inflamed joints.

Conclusion:

ILC3s not only correlate with various facets of PsA manifestations but also functionally contribute to synovitis and enthesitis suggesting them as interesting target for upcoming treatment strategies in the near future.

Disclosure of Interests:

Maria Gabriella Raimondo Grant/research support from: Celgene, Partner Fellowship, Simon Rauber: None declared, Markus Luber: None declared, Aleix Rius Rigau: None declared, Stefanie Weber: None declared, Charles Gwellem Anchang: None declared, Rahul Agarwal: None declared, Alina Soare: None declared, Michael Sticherling Grant/research support from: Novartis, Consultant of: Advisory boards Abbvie, Celgene, Janssen Cilag, Lilly, Pfizer, MSD, Novartis, Amgen, Leo, Sanofi, UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Celgene, Janssen Cilag, Leo, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Jürgen Rech Consultant of: BMS, Celgene, Novartis, Roche, Chugai, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Biogen, BMS, Celgene, MSD, Novartis, Roche, Chugai, Pfizer, Lilly, Arnd Kleyer Consultant of: Lilly, Gilead, Novartis,Abbvie, Speakers bureau: Novartis, Lilly, Jörg Distler Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Paid instructor for: Boehringer Ingelheim, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Georg Schett Speakers bureau: AbbVie, BMS, Celgene, Janssen, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Roche and UCB, Andreas Ramming Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Novartis, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, Gilead, Pfizer, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Janssen

Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models

AIMS

We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified.

CONCLUSION

Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.

A multicentre observational study on the epidemiology, risk factors, management and outcomes of mucormycosis in India

OBJECTIVES

To describe the epidemiology, management and outcome of individuals with mucormycosis; and to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study involving consecutive individuals with proven mucormycosis across 12 centres from India. The demographic profile, microbiology, predisposing factors, management and 90-day mortality were recorded; risk factors for mortality were analysed.

RESULTS

We included 465 patients. Rhino-orbital mucormycosis was the most common (315/465, 67.7%) presentation followed by pulmonary (62/465, 13.3%), cutaneous (49/465, 10.5%), and others. The predisposing factors included diabetes mellitus (342/465, 73.5%), malignancy (42/465, 9.0%), transplant (36/465, 7.7%), and others. Rhizopus species (231/290, 79.7%) were the most common followed by Apophysomyces variabilis (23/290, 7.9%), and several rare Mucorales. Surgical treatment was performed in 62.2% (289/465) of the participants. Amphotericin B was the primary therapy in 81.9% (381/465), and posaconazole was used as combination therapy in 53 (11.4%) individuals. Antifungal therapy was inappropriate in 7.6% (30/394) of the individuals. The 90-day mortality rate was 52% (242/465). On multivariate analysis, disseminated and rhino-orbital (with cerebral extension) mucormycosis, shorter duration of symptoms, shorter duration of antifungal therapy, and treatment with amphotericin B deoxycholate (versus liposomal) were independent risk factors of mortality. A combined medical and surgical management was associated with a better survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes mellitus was the dominant predisposing factor in all forms of mucormycosis. Combined surgical and medical management was associated with better outcomes. Several gaps surfaced in the management of mucormycosis. The rarer Mucorales identified in the study warrant further evaluation.