Association between changes in cardiovascular health and the risk of multimorbidity: community-based cohort studies in the UK and Finland

Background

Better cardiovascular health is associated with lower risk of various chronic diseases, but its association with multimorbidity is poorly understood. We aimed to examine whether change in cardiovascular health is associated with multimorbidity risk.

Methods

The primary analysis was conducted in the Whitehall II multiwave prospective cohort study (UK) and the validation analysis in the Finnish Public Sector cohort study (Finland). Change in cardiovascular health was assessed using the American Heart Association Life's Simple 7 (LS7) and Life's Essential 8 (LE8) at baseline and re-assessments, using objective measures in Whitehall II and self-reports and pharmacy claims in the Finnish Public Sector cohort study, respectively. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more of 12 chronic diseases during follow-up. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox's proportional hazard models with age as time scale, adjusting for sex, education, occupation, marital status, and ethnicity.

Findings

In the primary analysis among 9715 participants, mean age was 44.8 (standard deviation 6.0) years and 67.6% participants were men at baseline. During the median follow-up of 31.4 (interquartile range 26.8-32.3) years, 2751 participants developed multimorbidity. The hazard of multimorbidity decreased by 8% (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.96) per ideal LS7 metric increment over 5 years and by 14% (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80-0.93) per ten points increase in LE8 score over 10 years. These findings were replicated in the validation analysis among 75,377 participants in terms of 4-year change in cardiovascular health.

Interpretation

Improvement in cardiovascular health was associated with lower multimorbidity risk in two community-based cohort studies. Interventions improving cardiovascular health of the community may contribute to multimorbidity prevention.

Funding

None.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of obesity with disability between age 50 and 90 in the SHARE study

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with disability but whether age and ageing modify this association remains unclear. We examined whether this association changes between 50 and 90 years, and whether change in disability rates over 14 years differs by body mass index (BMI) categories.

METHODS

BMI and ADL-disability data on 28,453 individuals from 6 waves (2004-2018, SHARE study) were used to examine the cross-sectional absolute and relative associations, extracted at age 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 years using logistic mixed models. Then baseline BMI and change in disability rates over 14-years were examined using logistic-mixed models.

RESULTS

At age 50, the probabilities of ADL disability in individuals with BMI 30-34.9 and ≥35 kg/m² were 0.07 (0.06, 0.09) and 0.11 (0.09, 0.12), increasing to 0.47 (0.44, 0.50) and 0.55 (0.50, 0.60) at age 90; the increase in both these groups was greater than that in the normal-weight group (p for increase with age<0.001). On the relative scale the OR at age 50 in these obesity groups was 2.37 (1.79, 3.13) and 5.03 (3.38, 7.48), decreasing to 1.51 (1.20, 1.89) and 2.19 (1.50, 3.21) at age 90; p for decrease with age=0.05 and 0.02 respectively. The 14-year increase in probability of disability was greatest in those with BMI≥35 kg/m² at age 50, 60, and 70 at baseline: differences in increase compared to normal weight were 0.08 (0.02, 0.14), 0.11 (0.07, 0.15), and 0.09 (0.02, 0.16) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ADL disability is increasingly prevalent with age in individuals with obesity. Relative measures of change obscure the association between obesity and disability due to age-related increase in disability rates in all groups.

Role of cardiovascular health factors in mediating social inequalities in the incidence of dementia in the UK: two prospective, population-based cohort studies

Background

The contribution of modifiable risk factors to social inequalities in dementia, observed in longitudinal studies, remains unclear. We aimed to quantify the role of cardiovascular health factors, assessed using Life's Essential 8 (LE8) score, in mediating social inequalities in incidence of dementia and, for comparison, in incidence of stroke, coronary heart disease, and mortality.

Methods

In this prospective, population-based cohort study, we collected data from the UK Whitehall II Study and UK Biobank databases. Participants were included if data were available on SEP, outcomes and LE8 (smoking, physical activity, diet, body mass index, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipid levels, sleep duration). The primary outcome was incident dementia and secondary outcomes were stroke, coronary heart disease, and mortality. Outcomes were derived from electronic healthcare records. Socioeconomic position (SEP) was measured by occupation in Whitehall II and education in UK Biobank. Counterfactual mediation analysis was used to quantify the extent to which LE8 score explained the associations of SEP with all outcomes. Analyses involved Cox regression, accelerated failure time models, and linear regression; and were adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity.

Findings

Between 10.09.1985 and 29.03.1988, a total of 9688 participants (mean age ± SD 44.9 ± 6.0; 67% men) from the Whitehall II study, and between 19.12.2006 and 01.10.2010, 278,215 participants (mean age ± SD 56.0 ± 8.1; 47% men) from the UK Biobank were included. There were 606 and 4649 incident dementia cases over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 31.7 (31.1-32.7) and 13.5 (12.7-14.1) years respectively in Whitehall II and UK Biobank. In Whitehall II, the hazard ratio was 1.85 [95% CI 1.42, 2.32] for the total effect of SEP on dementia and 1.20 [1.12, 1.28] for the indirect effect via the LE8, the proportion mediated being 36%. In UK Biobank, the total effect of SEP on dementia was 1.65 [1.54, 1.78]; the indirect effect was 1.11 [1.09, 1.12], and the proportion mediated was 24%. The proportions mediated for stroke, coronary heart disease, and mortality were higher, ranging between 34% and 63% in Whitehall II and between 36% and 50% in UK Biobank.

Interpretation

In two well-characterised cohort studies, up to one third of the social inequalities in incidence of dementia was attributable to cardiovascular health factors. Promotion of cardiovascular health in midlife may contribute to reducing social inequalities in risk of dementia, in addition to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality. This study used adult measures of SEP, further research is warranted using lifecourse measures of SEP.

Funding

NIH (RF1AG062553).

Age at cardiovascular disease onset, dementia risk, and the role of lifestyle factors

INTRODUCTION

We first examined the role of age at cardiovascular disease (CVD) onset for incident dementia, and then examined whether lifestyle factors at guideline-recommended levels in individuals with CVD mitigates dementia risk.

METHODS

We used population-based data (Whitehall II: n = 10,308/baseline 1985-1988/examinations every 4-5 years). Lifestyle factors (non-smoking, body mass index [BMI], physical activity, diet) were extracted post-CVD.

RESULTS

Over a median of 31.6 years, 3275 (32.1%) developed CVD. At age 70, risk of dementia was higher in individuals with CVD onset before (hazard ratio [HR] of incident dementia for participants with CVD before age 60, using participants without CVD at age 70 as the reference: 1.56, 95% confidence interal [CI] 1.18-2.08) but not after 60 years. In participants with CVD, a greater number of lifestyle factors at recommended levels post-CVD was associated with a lower dementia risk (per lifestyle factor at recommended level HR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.92).

DISCUSSION

Our results suggest that early onset CVD is associated with a higher dementia risk at older ages. In those with CVD, the dementia risk was lower if lifestyle factors are at recommended levels following CVD diagnosis.

HIGHLIGHTS

CVD in midlife but not in late life is associated with a higher risk of dementia. Dementia risk in CVD patients is lower if their lifestyle factors are at recommended levels. These findings provide evidence to promote CVD prevention in midlife or earlier. Study findings also show the importance of a healthy lifestyle in those with CVD.

Change in lipids before onset of dementia, coronary heart disease, and mortality: A 28-year follow-up Whitehall II prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The association of lipids with dementia remains a subject of debate. Using data from 7,672 participants of the Whitehall II prospective cohort study, we examined whether timing of exposure, length of follow-up, or sex modifies this association.

METHODS

Twelve markers of lipid levels were measured from fasting blood and eight among them a further five times. We performed time-to-event as well as trajectory analyses.

RESULTS

No associations were observed in men; in women most lipids were associated with the risk of dementia, but only for events occurring after the first 20 years of follow-up. Differences in lipid trajectories in men emerged only in the years immediately before diagnosis whereas in women total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), non-HDL-cholesterol (non-HDL-C), TC/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C were higher in midlife among dementia cases before declining progressively.

DISCUSSION

Abnormal lipid levels in midlife seem to be associated with a higher risk of dementia in women.

Is metabolic-healthy obesity associated with risk of dementia? An age-stratified analysis of the Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND

Metabolically healthy obesity is hypothesized to be a benign condition but whether this is the case for dementia remains debated. We examined the role of age at assessment of metabolic-obesity phenotypes in associations with incident dementia.

METHODS

Obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2) and poor metabolic health (≥ 2 of elevated serum triglycerides, low HDL-C, elevated blood pressure, and elevated serum fasting glucose) were used to define four metabolic-obesity phenotypes (metabolically healthy (MHNO) and unhealthy non-obesity (MUNO), metabolically healthy (MHO) and unhealthy obesity (MUO)) at < 60, 60 to < 70, and ≥ 70 years using 6 waves of data from the Whitehall II study and their associations with incident dementia was examined using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Analyses with exposures measured < 60, 60 to < 70, and ≥ 70 years involved 410 (5.8%), 379 (5.6%), and 262 (7.4%) incident dementia cases over a median follow-up of 20.8, 10.3, and 4.2 years respectively. In analyses of individual components, obesity before 60 years (HR 1.41, 95% CI: [1.08, 1.85]) but not at older ages was associated with dementia; unhealthy metabolic status when present < 60 years (HR 1.33, 95% CI: [1.08, 1.62]) and 60 to < 70 years (HR 1.32, 95% CI: [1.07, 1.62]) was associated with dementia. Compared to the metabolically healthy non-obesity group, the risk of dementia was higher in those with metabolically healthy obesity before 60 years (1.69; 95% CI: [1.16, 2.45]); this was not the case when metabolic-obesity phenotype was present at 60 to < 70 years or ≥ 70 years. Analyses at older ages were on smaller numbers due to death and drop-out but inverse probability weighting to account for missing data yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with metabolically healthy obesity before age 60 had a higher risk of incident dementia over a 27-year follow-up; the excess risk dissipates when metabolic health and obesity are measured after 70 years.

Measures of fragmentation of rest activity patterns: mathematical properties and interpretability based on accelerometer real life data

Accelerometers, devices that measure body movements, have become valuable tools for studying the fragmentation of rest-activity patterns, a core circadian rhythm dimension, using metrics such as inter-daily stability (IS), intradaily variability (IV), transition probability (TP), and self-similarity parameter (named α ). However, their use remains mainly empirical. Therefore, we investigated the mathematical properties and interpretability of rest-activity fragmentation metrics by providing mathematical proofs for the ranges of IS and IV, proposing maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators for TP, introducing the activity balance index metric, an adaptation of α , and describing distributions of these metrics in real-life setting. Analysis of accelerometer data from 2,859 individuals (age=60-83 years, 21.1% women) from the Whitehall II cohort (UK) shows modest correlations between the metrics, except for ABI and α . Sociodemographic (age, sex, education, employment status) and clinical (body mass index (BMI), and number of morbidities) factors were associated with these metrics, with differences observed according to metrics. For example, a difference of 5 units in BMI was associated with all metrics (differences ranging between -0.261 (95% CI -0.302, -0.220) to 0.228 (0.18, 0.268) for standardised TP rest to activity during the awake period and TP activity to rest during the awake period, respectively). These results reinforce the value of these rest-activity fragmentation metrics in epidemiological and clinical studies to examine their role for health. This paper expands on a set of methods that have previously demonstrated empirical value, improves the theoretical foundation for these methods, and evaluates their empirical worth in a large dataset.

Role of age and sex in the association between BMI and functional limitations in stroke patients: Cross-sectional analysis in three European and US cohorts

BACKGROUND

A U- or J-shaped association between BMI and different post-stroke outcomes is suggested. Thus, the aim is to evaluate the association between BMI with ADL, IADL and mobility limitations in the ageing post-stroke population at different ages, as well as the differences in this association by sex.

METHODS

A total of 5,468 participants with stroke and 21,872 without stroke over 50 years of age were assessed for the number of limitations in basic or instrumental activities of daily living (ADL/IADL) as well as mobility tasks. The association between BMI at the interview (continuous time-dependent variable) and the level of limitations was assessed using a linear mixed model stratified by sex and stroke status.

RESULTS

The association between BMI and ADL/IADL and mobility limitations were found to be significant in both men and women regardless of stroke status (p<0.001 for all). The association differs between those who have suffered a stroke and those who have not (p<0.001 for all). In ADL/IADL limitations, men with stroke showed a transition from an inverted J-shape to a U-shape association with age. In women, the BMI showed a less pronounced association between BMI and ADL/IADL limitations compared to men but with similar trends. A effect of sex was observed in the association between BMI and mobility, with women with and without stroke showing a linear association that differed from the inverted J-shaped or U-shaped association of men.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that BMI is associated with limitations in ADL, IADL and mobility in stroke patients. In addition, this association differs between men and women and is also influenced by age.

BPSD Patterns in Patients With Severe Neuropsychiatric Disturbances: Insight From the RECAGE Study

OBJECTIVE

Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) profiles vary depending on etiology in patients with mild-to-moderate BPSD. It is not known if similar differences exist in patients with severe BPSD.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected at baseline in 398 patients with severe BPSD (NPI ≥ 32) and defined diagnosis of dementia (Alzheimer's disease [AD] 297; frontotemporal dementia [FTD] 39; Lewy body disease/Parkinsonian dementia [LBD/PD] 31; and vascular dementia [VD] 31) included in the European multicenter cohort RECAGE.

RESULTS

Mean total NPI was 52.11 (18.55). LBD/PD patients demonstrated more hallucinations, more anxiety and more delusions than patients with other dementia. FTD patients had less delusions and more disinhibition than patients with other neurodegenerative disorders. These profiles overlapped partially with those reported in the literature in patients with less severe symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Patients with severe BPSD display different and specific profiles of neuropsychiatric symptoms depending on dementia etiology.

Is the number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics in midlife associated with lower risk of cancer? Evidence from 3 European prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Primordial prevention may be a relevant strategy for the prevention of cancer. Given the commonality of risk factors and mechanisms between cancer and cardiovascular disease, we examined the associations between the number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics in midlife and incident cancer.

METHODS

In 3 European cohorts (NutriNet-Santé and GAZEL, France; Whitehall II, United Kingdom), the number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics was determined at baseline (range 0-7). Follow-up for cancer events was until October 2020 (NutriNet-Santé), March 2017 (Whitehall II) and December 2015 (GAZEL). Cox regression was conducted in each cohort, and results were thereafter pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Data were available on 39 718 participants. A total of 16 237 were from NutriNet-Santé (mean age 51.3 yr; 28% men), 9418 were from Whitehall II (mean age 44.8 yr; 68% men) and 14 063 were from GAZEL (mean age 45.2 yr; 75% men). The median follow-up was 8.1 years in NutriNet-Santé, 29.6 years in Whitehall II and 24.8 years in GAZEL, and yielded a total of 4889 cancer events. A greater number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics was associated with a lower overall cancer risk in each cohort, with an aggregate hazard ratio (HR) per 1 increment in number of ideal metrics of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.93). This association remained after removal of the smoking metric (aggregate HR per unit increment in number of ideal metrics: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.97), and site-specific analysis demonstrated a significant association with lung cancer.

INTERPRETATION

A greater number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics in midlife was associated with lower cancer risk, notably lung cancer. Primordial prevention of cardiovascular risk factors in midlife may be a complementary strategy to prevent the onset of cancer.

Association between ATN profiles and mortality in a clinical cohort of patients with cognitive disorders

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the 5th leading cause of death in people 65 years and older. The ATN classification reflects a biological definition of AD pathology with markers of Aβ deposition (A), pathologic tau (T), and neurodegeneration (N). Little is known about the relationship between ATN status and the risk of mortality, leading us to examine this association in a relatively large population of patients seen at a memory clinic for cognitive disorders.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the BioCogBank Study, including patients seen for cognitive disorders in Lariboisiere Hospital (Paris, France), followed up to 15 years. All participants underwent a lumbar puncture for an assessment of the levels of CSF tau (tau), phosphorylated tau (p-tau181), and β-amyloid 42 peptide (Aβ42). Vital status on July 1, 2020, was recorded for each participant using the national mortality register. Individuals were categorized according to their ATN profiles based on CSF Aβ42 or Aβ42/40 ratio, p-tau181, and tau. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox analyses were performed with A-T-N - participants as the reference using a short (5 years) and long follow-up (15 years).

RESULTS

Of the 1353 patients in the study (mean age: 68 years old, 53% of women, mean MMSE score: 22.6), 262 died during the follow-up. At 5 years of follow-up, A-T-N + individuals had the highest risk of mortality in Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox analyses [HR (95% CI) = 2.93 (1.31-6.56)]. At 15 years of follow-up, patients in the AD spectrum had a higher mortality risk with a gradient effect for biomarker positivity: A-T + [HR = 1.63 (1.04-2.55)], A + T - [HR = 2.17 (1.44-3.26)], and A + T + individuals [HR = 2.38 (1.66-3.39)], compared to A-T-N - patients. Adjustments on potential confounders had little impact on these associations.

CONCLUSION

This study shows ATN profiles to be associated with mortality in a relatively large patient cohort based on a memory clinic. Patients with isolated evidence of neurodegeneration had a higher mortality rate in the short follow-up, and patients with the AD profile had the highest mortality rate in the long follow-up.

Trajectories of physical and mental functioning over 25 years before onset of frailty: results from the Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND

Research on frailty, a major contributor to heterogeneity in health, is undertaken on older adults although the processes leading to frailty are likely to begin earlier in the life course. Using repeat data spanning 25 years, we examined changes in physical and mental functioning before the onset of frailty, defined using Fried's frailty phenotype (FFP).

METHODS

Functioning was measured using the Short-Form 36 General Health Survey (SF-36) on nine occasions from 1991 (age range 40-63 years) to 2015 (age range 63-85 years). The poorest of four FFP scores from 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2015 was used to classify participants as frail, pre-frail, or robust. We used linear mixed models with a backward timescale such that time 0 was the person-specific date of frailty classification for frail and pre-frail participants and the end of follow-up for robust participants. Analyses adjusted for socio-demographic factors, health behaviours, body mass index and multi-morbidity status were used to compare SF-36 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scores over 25 years before time 0 as a function of FFP classification, with estimates extracted at time 0, -5, -10, -15, -20 and -25 years. We also used illness-death models to examine the prospective association between SF-36 component summary scores at age 50 and incident FFP-defined frailty.

RESULTS

Among 7044 participants of the Whitehall II cohort study included in the analysis [29% female, mean age 49.7 (SD = 6.0) at baseline in 1991], 2055 (29%) participants remained robust, and 4476 (64%) became pre-frail and 513 (7%) frail during follow-up. Frail compared with robust participants had lower SF-36 scores at t = -25 before onset of frailty with a difference of 3.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 5.1] in PCS and 1.8 (-0.2, 3.8) in MCS. At t = 0, the differences increased to 11.5 (10.5, 12.5) and 9.1 (8.0, 10.2), respectively. The differences in SF-36 between the robust and pre-frail groups, although smaller [at t = 0, 1.7 (1.2, 2.2) in PCS and 4.0 (3.4, 4.5) in MCS], were already observed 20 and 25 years, respectively, before the onset of pre-frailty. Prospective analyses showed that at age 50, scores in the bottom quartiles of PCS [hazard ratio (HR) compared with the top quartile = 2.39, 95% CI 1.85, 3.07] and MCS [HR = 1.49 (1.15, 1.93)] were associated with a higher risk of FFP-defined frailty at older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in trajectories of physical and mental functioning in individuals who developed physical frailty at older ages were observable 25 years before onset of FFP-defined frailty. These findings highlight the need for a life course approach in efforts to prevent frailty.

Comparison of sex differences in cognitive function in older adults between high- and middle-income countries and the role of education: a population-based multicohort study

BACKGROUND

The extent to which education explains variations in sex differences in cognitive function between countries at different levels of economic development is unknown. We examined the role of education in sex differences in four cognitive domains in high- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 70,846 participants, aged 60 years and older, in cohort studies from a high-income (United States) and four middle-income countries (Mexico, Brazil, China, and India). We used weighted linear models to allow nationally-representative comparisons of sex differences in orientation, memory, attention, and fluency using the United States as the reference, before and after adjustment for education, and after stratification by education.

RESULTS

Females had lower levels of education than males in all countries, particularly in India. Before adjustment for education, sex differences in orientation and attention in all middle-income countries, memory in Brazil, China, and India, and fluency in India were less favourable to females than in the United States (P < 0.010). For example, females outperformed males in memory in the United States (mean difference [male-female scores] = -0.26 standard deviations [95% CI -0.30, -0.22]) but not in China (0.15 [0.09, 0.21]) or India (0.16 [0.13, 0.19]). Adjustment for education attenuated these sex differences. In analyses stratified by education, there were minimal sex differences in the high education group in all countries.

CONCLUSION

Education contributes to larger female disadvantages in cognitive function at older ages in middle-income countries compared with the United States. Gender equity in education is an important target to reduce sex disparities in cognitive function globally.

Identification of physical activity and sedentary behaviour dimensions that predict mortality risk in older adults: Development of a machine learning model in the Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study and external validation in the CoLaus study

BACKGROUND

Identification of new physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) features relevant for health at older age is important to diversify PA targets in guidelines, as older adults rarely adhere to current recommendations focusing on total duration. We aimed to identify accelerometer-derived dimensions of movement behaviours that predict mortality risk in older populations.

METHODS

We used data on 21 accelerometer-derived features of daily movement behaviours in 3991 participants of the UK-based Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study (25.8% women, 60-83 years, follow-up: 2012-2013 to 2021, mean = 8.3 years). A machine-learning procedure was used to identify core PA and SB features predicting mortality risk and derive a composite score. We estimated the added predictive value of the score compared to traditional sociodemographic, behavioural, and health-related risk factors. External validation in the Switzerland-based CoLaus study (N = 1329, 56.7% women, 60-86 years, follow-up: 2014-2017 to 2021, mean = 3.8 years) was conducted.

FINDINGS

In total, 11 features related to overall activity level, intensity distribution, bouts duration, frequency, and total duration of PA and SB, were identified as predictors of mortality in older adults and included in a composite score. Both in the derivation and validation cohorts, the score was associated with mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.15) and 1.18 (1.10-1.26), respectively) and improved the predictive value of a model including traditional risk factors (increase in C-index = 0.007 (0.002-0.014) and 0.029 (0.002-0.055), respectively).

INTERPRETATION

The identified accelerometer-derived PA and SB features, beyond the currently recommended total duration, might be useful for screening of older adults at higher mortality risk and for diversifying PA and SB targets in older populations whose adherence to current guidelines is low.

FUNDING

National Institute on Aging; UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Wellcome Trust; French National Research Agency; GlaxoSmithKline; Lausanne Faculty of Biology and Medicine; Swiss National Science Foundation.

Association of physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and daylight exposure with sleep in an ageing population: findings from the Whitehall accelerometer sub-study

BACKGROUND

Ageing is accompanied by changes in sleep, while poor sleep is suggested as a risk factor for several health outcomes. Non-pharmacological approaches have been proposed to improve sleep in elderly; their impact remains to be investigated. The aim of this study was to examine the independent day-to-day associations of physical behaviours and daylight exposure with sleep characteristics among older adults.

METHODS

Data were drawn from 3942 participants (age range: 60-83 years; 27% women) from the Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study. Day-to-day associations of objectively-assessed daytime physical behaviours (sedentary behaviour, light-intensity physical activity (LIPA), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), mean acceleration, physical activity chronotype) and daylight exposure (proportion of waking window with light exposure > 1000 lx and light chronotype) with sleep characteristics were examined using mixed models.

RESULTS

A 10%-increase in proportion of the waking period spent sedentary was associated with 5.12-minute (4.31, 5.92) later sleep onset and 1.76-minute shorter sleep duration (95%confidence interval: 0.86, 2.66). Similar increases in LIPA and MVPA were associated with 6.69 (5.67, 7.71) and 4.15 (2.49, 5.81) earlier sleep onset respectively and around 2-minute longer sleep duration (2.02 (0.87, 3.17) and 2.23 (0.36, 4.11), respectively), although the association was attenuated for MVPA after adjustment for daylight exposure (1.11 (- 0.84, 3.06)). A 3-hour later physical activity chronotype was associated with a 4.79-minute later sleep onset (4.15, 5.43) and 2.73-minute shorter sleep duration (1.99, 3.47). A 10%-increase in proportion of waking period exposed to light> 1000 lx was associated with 1.36-minute longer sleep (0.69, 2.03), independently from mean acceleration. Associations found for sleep duration were also evident for duration of the sleep windows with slightly larger effect size (for example, 3.60 (2.37, 4.82) minutes for 10%-increase in LIPA), resulting in associations with sleep efficiency in the opposite direction (for example, - 0.29% (- 0.42, - 0.16) for 10%-increase in LIPA). Overall, associations were stronger for women than for men.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, higher levels of physical activity and daylight exposure were associated with slightly longer sleep in older adults. Given the small effect sizes of the associations, increased physical activity and daylight exposure might not be enough to improve sleep.

Circulating serum metabolites as predictors of dementia: a machine learning approach in a 21-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND

Age is the strongest risk factor for dementia and there is considerable interest in identifying scalable, blood-based biomarkers in predicting dementia. We examined the role of midlife serum metabolites using a machine learning approach and determined whether the selected metabolites improved prediction accuracy beyond the effect of age.

METHODS

Five thousand three hundred seventy-four participants from the Whitehall II study, mean age 55.8 (standard deviation (SD) 6.0) years in 1997-1999 when 233 metabolites were quantified using nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Participants were followed for a median 21.0 (IQR 20.4, 21.7) years for clinically-diagnosed dementia (N=329). Elastic net penalized Cox regression with 100 repetitions of nested cross-validation was used to select models that improved prediction accuracy for incident dementia compared to an age-only model. Risk scores reflecting the frequency with which predictors appeared in the selected models were constructed, and their predictive accuracy was examined using Royston's R², Akaike's information criterion, sensitivity, specificity, C-statistic and calibration.

RESULTS

Sixteen of the 100 models had a better c-statistic compared to an age-only model and 15 metabolites were selected at least once in all 16 models with glucose present in all models. Five risk scores, reflecting the frequency of selection of metabolites, and a 1-SD increment in all five risk scores was associated with higher dementia risk (HR between 3.13 and 3.26). Three of these, constituted of 4, 5 and 15 metabolites, had better prediction accuracy (c-statistic from 0.788 to 0.796) compared to an age-only model (c-statistic 0.780), all p<0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was robust evidence for the role of glucose in dementia, metabolites measured in midlife made only a modest contribution to dementia prediction once age was taken into account.

Association of Metabolic Syndrome With Incident Dementia: Role of Number and Age at Measurement of Components in a 28-Year Follow-up of the Whitehall II Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Previous research suggests an inconsistent association between Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and incident dementia. We examined the role of number of MetS components and age at their assessment for incident dementia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

MetS components (fasting glucose, triglycerides, waist circumference, blood pressure, and HDL cholesterol) on 7,265, 6,660, and 3,608 participants at <60, 60 to <70, and ≥70 years of age were used to examine associations with incident dementia using cause-specific Cox regression.

RESULTS

Analyses of MetS measured at <60, 60 to <70, and ≥70 years involved 393 (5.4%), 497 (7.5%), and 284 (7.9%) dementia cases over a median follow-up of 20.8, 10.4, and 4.2 years, respectively. Every additional MetS component before 60 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [95% CI 1.05, 1.23]) and 60 to <70 (HR 1.08 [95% CI 1.00, 1.16]) but not ≥70 years (HR 1.04 [95% CI 0.96, 1.13]) was associated with higher dementia risk. MetS defined conventionally (≥3 components) before 60 years (HR 1.23 [95% CI 0.96, 1.57]), between 60 and 70 years (HR 1.14 [95% CI 0.91, 1.42]), or >70 years of age (HR 1.10 [95% CI 0.86, 1.40]) was not associated with incident dementia. Multistate models showed higher risk of dementia in those with ≥1 (HR 1.99 [95% CI 1.08, 3.66]) and ≥2 MetS components (HR 1.69 [95% CI 1.12, 2.56]) before 60 years of age, even when they remained free of cardiovascular disease over the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of incident dementia increases with every additional MetS component present in midlife rather than after accumulation of three components; only part of this risk is mediated by cardiovascular disease.

A Pragmatic, Data-Driven Method to Determine Cutoffs for CSF Biomarkers of Alzheimer Disease Based on Validation Against PET Imaging

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To elaborate a new algorithm to establish a standardized method to define cutoffs for CSF biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) by validating the algorithm against CSF classification derived from PET imaging.

METHODS

Low and high levels of CSF phosphorylated tau were first identified to establish optimal cutoffs for CSF β-amyloid (Aβ) peptide biomarkers. These Aβ cutoffs were then used to determine cutoffs for CSF tau and phosphorylated tau markers. We compared this algorithm to a reference method, based on tau and amyloid PET imaging status (ADNI study), and then applied the algorithm to 10 large clinical cohorts of patients.

RESULTS

A total of 6,922 patients with CSF biomarker data were included (mean [SD] age: 70.6 [8.5] years, 51.0% women). In the ADNI study population (n = 497), the agreement between classification based on our algorithm and the one based on amyloid/tau PET imaging was high, with Cohen's kappa coefficient between 0.87 and 0.99. Applying the algorithm to 10 large cohorts of patients (n = 6,425), the proportion of persons with AD ranged from 25.9% to 43.5%.

DISCUSSION

The proposed novel, pragmatic method to determine CSF biomarker cutoffs for AD does not require assessment of other biomarkers or assumptions concerning the clinical diagnosis of patients. Use of this standardized algorithm is likely to reduce heterogeneity in AD classification.

Ten-Year Trends in Sales of Alzheimer Disease Drugs in France Compared With Sales in Germany, Spain, and the UK

This cross-sectional study analyzes 10-year trends in sales of Alzheimer disease drugs in France compared with trends in the UK, Spain, and Germany.

Individual Barriers to an Active Lifestyle at Older Ages Among Whitehall II Study Participants After 20 Years of Follow-up

IMPORTANCE

Identification of individual-level barriers associated with decreased activity in older age is essential to inform effective strategies for preventing the health outcomes associated with high sedentary behavior and lack of physical activity during aging.

OBJECTIVE

To assess cross-sectional and prospective associations of a large set of factors with objectively assessed sedentary time and physical activity at older age.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study was conducted among participants in the Whitehall II accelerometer substudy with accelerometer data assessed in 2012 to 2013. Among 4880 participants invited to the accelerometer substudy, 4006 individuals had valid accelerometer data. Among them, 3808 participants also had factors assessed in 1991 to 1993 (mean [SD] follow-up time, 20.3 [0.5] years), 3782 participants had factors assessed in 2002 to 2004 (mean [SD] follow-up time, 9.1 [0.3] years), and 3896 participants had factors assessed in 2012 to 2013 (mean follow up time, 0 years). Data were analyzed from May 2020 through July 2021.

EXPOSURES

Sociodemographic factors (ie, age, sex, race and ethnicity, occupational position, and marital status), behavioral factors (ie, smoking, alcohol intake, and fruit and vegetable intake), and health-related factors (ie, body mass index, 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical and mental component summary scores [PCS and MCS], and number of chronic conditions) were assessed among 3808 individuals in 1991 to 1993; 3782 individuals in 2002 to 2004; and 3896 individuals in 2012 to 2013. High alcohol intake was defined as more than 14 units of alcohol per week, and high fruit and vegetable intake was defined as twice daily or more.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Accelerometer-assessed time spent in sedentary behavior, light-intensity physical activity (LIPA), and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in 2012 to 2013 were analyzed in 2021 using multivariate linear regressions.

RESULTS

A total of 3896 participants (986 [25.3%] women; age range, 60-83 years; mean [SD] age, 69.4 [5.7] years) had accelerometer data and exposure factors available in 2012 to 2013. Older age, not being married or cohabiting, having overweight, having obesity, more chronic conditions, and poorer SF-36 PCS, assessed in midlife or later life, were associated with increased sedentary time at the expense of time in physical activity. Mean time differences ranged from 9.8 min/d (95% CI, 4.1 to 15.6 min/d) of sedentary behavior per 10-point decrease in SF-36 PCS to 51.4 min/d (95% CI, 37.2 to65.7 min/d) of sedentary behavior for obesity vs reference range weight, from -6.2 min/d (95% CI, -8.4 to -4.1 min/d) of LIPA per 5 years of age to -28.0 min/d (95% CI, -38.6 to -17.4 min/d) of LIPA for obesity vs reference range weight, and from -5.3 min/d (95% CI, -8.2 to -2.4 min/d) of MVPA per new chronic condition to -23.4 min/d (95% CI, -29.2 to -17.6 min/d) of MVPA for obesity vs reference range weight in 20-year prospective analyses for men. There was also evidence of clustering of behavioral factors: high alcohol intake, high fruit and vegetable consumption, and no current smoking were associated with decreased sedentary time (mean time difference in cross-sectional analysis in men: -12.7 min/d [95% CI, -19.8 to -5.5 min/d]; -6.0 min/d [95% CI, -12.3 to -0.2]; and -37.4 min/d [95% CI, - 56.0 to -18.8 min/d], respectively) and more physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found a large range of individual-level barriers associated with a less active lifestyle in older age, including sociodemographic, behavioral, and health-related factors. These barriers were already evident in midlife, suggesting the importance of early implementation of targeted interventions to promote physical activity and reduce sedentary time.

Objectively Measured Total Sedentary Time and Pattern of Sedentary Accumulation in Older Adults: Associations With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality

BACKGROUND

We examined associations of total duration and pattern of accumulation of objectively measured sedentary behavior (SB) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among older adults.

METHODS

Total sedentary time and 8 sedentary accumulation pattern metrics were extracted from accelerometer data of 3 991 Whitehall II study participants aged 60-83 years in 2012-2013. Incident CVD and all-cause mortality were ascertained up to March 2019.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-nine CVD cases and 260 deaths were recorded over a mean (standard deviation [SD]) follow-up of 6.2 (1.3) and 6.4 (0.8) years, respectively. Adjusting for sociodemographic and behavioral factors, 1-SD (100.2 minutes) increase in total sedentary time was associated with 20% higher CVD risk (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.05-1.37]). More fragmented SB was associated with reduced CVD risk (eg, 0.86 [0.76-0.97] for 1-SD [6.2] increase in breaks per sedentary hour). Associations were not evident once health-related factors and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were considered. For all-cause mortality, associations with more fragmented SB (eg, 0.73 [0.59-0.91] for breaks per sedentary hour) were found only among the youngest older group (<74 years; p for interaction with age < .01) independently from all covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, no associations of total sedentary time and sedentary accumulation patterns with incident CVD and all-cause mortality were found in the total sample once MVPA was considered. Our findings of reduced mortality risk with less total and more fragmented SB independent from MVPA among individuals <74 years need to be replicated to support the recent recommendations to reduce and fragment SB.

How Selection Over Time Contributes to the Inconsistency of the Association Between Sex/Gender and Cognitive Decline Across Cognitive Aging Cohorts

The association between sex/gender and aging-related cognitive decline remains poorly understood because of inconsistencies in findings. Such heterogeneity could be attributable to the cognitive functions studied and study population characteristics, but also to differential selection by dropout and death between men and women. We aimed to evaluate the impact of selection by dropout and death on the association between sex/gender and cognitive decline. We first compared the statistical methods most frequently used for longitudinal data, targeting either population estimands (marginal models fitted by generalized estimating equations) or subject-specific estimands (mixed/joint models fitted by likelihood maximization) in 8 studies of aging: 6 population-based studies (the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) Study (1996-2009), Personnes Âgées QUID (PAQUID; 1988-2014), the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study (2003-2016), the Three-City Study (Bordeaux only; 1999-2016), the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP; 1992-2017), and the Whitehall II Study (2007-2016)) and 2 clinic-based studies (the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; 2004-2017) and a nationwide French cohort study, MEMENTO (2011-2016)). We illustrate differences in the estimands of the association between sex/gender and cognitive decline in selected examples and highlight the critical role of differential selection by dropout and death. Using the same estimand, we then contrast the sex/gender-cognitive decline associations across cohorts and cognitive measures suggesting a residual differential sex/gender association depending on the targeted cognitive measure (memory or animal fluency) and the initial cohort selection. We recommend focusing on subject-specific estimands in the living population for assessing sex/gender differences while handling differential selection over time.

Association between age at onset of multimorbidity and incidence of dementia: 30 year follow-up in Whitehall II prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of midlife and late life multimorbidity, including severity of multimorbidity, with incident dementia.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Civil service departments in London (Whitehall II study, study inception in 1985-88).

PARTICIPANTS

10 095 participants, aged 35 to 55 at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident dementia at follow-up between 1985 and 2019. Cause specific Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of multimorbidity overall and at age 55, 60, 65, and 70 with subsequent dementia, taking into account the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity (≥2 chronic diseases) was 6.6% (655/9937) at age 55 and 31.7% (2464/7783) at age 70; 639 cases of incident dementia occurred over a median follow-up of 31.7 years. After adjustment for sociodemographic factors and health behaviours, multimorbidity at age 55 was associated with subsequent risk of dementia (difference in incidence rate per 1000 person years 1.56, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 2.77; hazard ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.82 to 3.26). The association weakened progressively with older age at onset of multimorbidity. At age 65, onset of multimorbidity before age 55 was associated with 3.86 (1.80 to 6.52) per 1000 person years higher incidence of dementia (hazard ratio 2.46, 1.80 to 2.26) and onset between 60 and 65 was associated with 1.85 (0.64 to 3.39) per 1000 person years higher incidence (1.51, 1.16 to 1.97). Severity of multimorbidity (≥3 chronic diseases) at age 55 was associated with a 5.22 (1.14 to 11.95) per 1000 person years higher incidence of dementia (hazard ratio 4.96, 2.54 to 9.67); the same analyses at age 70 showed 4.49 (2.33 to 7.19) per 1000 person years higher incidence (1.65, 1.25 to 2.18).

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity, particularly when onset is in midlife rather than late life, has a robust association with subsequent dementia. The increasingly younger age at onset of multimorbidity makes prevention of multimorbidity in people with a first chronic disease important.

Association of APOE ε4 with cerebral gray matter volumes in non-demented older adults: the MEMENTO cohort study

Data on 2,045 non-demented individuals with memory complaints were drawn from the Memento cohort study to examine the association between Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE4) and regional brain gray matter volumes. Linear regression was used to examine the association of APOE4 and measures of regional gray matter volumes in cross-sectional analysis and change therein using longitudinal analyses based on two brain MRI performed at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Overall, in analyses adjusted for age, sex, and intracranial volume, the presence of APOE4 was associated with lower total gray matter volume at baseline and with a higher atrophy rate over the follow-up. The hippocampus and entorhinal cortex were the two gray matter regions most associated with APOE4. Further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors had little impact on these associations. There was an interaction between age, APOE4 status and total brain volume atrophy rate, with evidence of an earlier age at onset of atrophy in hippocampal volume in APOE4 carriers compared to non-carriers. Those results are in accordance with the role of medial temporal structures in the greater risk of dementia observed in people carrying the APOE4 allele.

Importance of characterising sleep breaks within the 24-h movement behaviour framework

Accelerometers measure the acceleration of the body part they are attached and allow to estimate time spent in activity levels (sedentary behaviour, light, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and sleep over a 24-h period for several consecutive days. These advantages come with the challenges to analyse the large amount of data while integrating dimensions of both physical activity/sedentary behaviour and sleep domains. This commentary raises the questions of 1) how to classify sleep breaks (i.e. wake after sleep onset) during the night within the 24-h movement behaviour framework and 2) how to assess their impact on health while also accounting for night time sleep duration and time in sedentary behaviour and physical activity during the day. The authors advocate for future collaborations between researchers from the physical activity/sedentary behaviour and sleep research fields to ensure appropriate analysis and interpretation of the tremendous amount of data recorded by the newer generation accelerometers. This is the only way forward to provide meaningfully accurate evidence to inform future 24-h movement behaviour guidelines.

Pre-stroke Disability and Long-Term Functional Limitations in Stroke Survivors: Findings From More of 12 Years of Follow-Up Across Three International Surveys of Aging

Background

Almost 50% of the post-stroke disabled population already have a premorbid disability before stroke. These patients may be offered a different care pathway in the acute and subacute phase than those without pre-morbid disability. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the association of the severity of premorbid disability with change of limitations in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL/IADL) 1 year after stroke and over the following decade.

Methods

Among 3,432 participants from HRS, SHARE and ELSA cohorts with a first stroke, ADL/IADL limitations were measured at 1-2 years prior to stroke, at 1 year post-stroke, and during the chronic phase. Modified Ranking Scale (P-mRS) was used to categorize the participants by level of premorbid disability (1-2 years pre-stroke). Change in ADL/IADL limitations by P-mRS level (0-1, 2-3, and 4-5) was assessed using a piecewise linear mixed model with a breakpoint set at 1 year post-stroke, stratified by median age groups.

Results

Increase in ADL limitations at 1 year post-stroke was less pronounced in P-mRS ≥2 (p < 0.005). After years of relative stability, limitations of ADL increased for all P-mRS levels (p = 0.003). In those aged ≥75 years at stroke event, the increase was similar irrespective of P-mRS (p = 0.090). There were no significant differences in IADL trajectories between P-mRS levels (p ≥ 0.127).

Conclusion

These results suggest similar trajectories of functional limitations between P-mRS levels up to 9 years post-stroke, highlighting the possible benefit of including patients with pre-morbid disability to certain treatments during the acute phase.

Long-Term Evolution of Functional Limitations in Stroke Survivors Compared With Stroke-Free Controls: Findings From 15 Years of Follow-Up Across 3 International Surveys of Aging

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In the chronic phase 2 to 5 years poststroke, limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL) initially plateau before steady increasing. However, the impact of age and differences in initial levels of disability on the evolution of these limitations remains unclear. As such, this study aims to evaluate differences in long-term evolution of ADL/IADL limitations between stroke survivors and stroke-free population, and how limitations differ by initial level of disability for stroke survivors.

METHODS

Thirty-three thousand six hundred sixty participants (5610 first-ever stroke cases with no recurrence during follow-up and 28 050 stroke-free controls) aged ≥50 from the Health and Retirement Study, Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were assessed for number of ADL/IADL limitations during the poststroke chronic phase (for cases) and over follow-up years 1996 to 2018 (for controls). Three thousand seven hundred eighteen stroke cases were additionally categorized by disability level using the modified Rankin Scale score of 1 to 2 years poststroke. Evolution of ADL/IADL limitations was assessed in stroke cases and controls and by modified Rankin Scale score (0-1, 2-3, 4-5) using linear mixed models. Models were stratified by age group (50-74 and ≥75 years) and adjusted for baseline characteristics, health behaviors, BMI, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Findings showed relative stability of ADL/IADL limitations during 3 to 6 years poststroke followed by an increase for both populations, which was faster for younger stroke cases, suggesting a differential age-effect (P<0.001). Disability level at 1 to 2 years poststroke influenced the evolution of limitations over time, especially for severe disability (modified Rankin Scale score, 4-5) associated with a reduction in limitations at 5 to 6 years poststroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings showed that during the poststroke chronic phase functional limitations first plateau and then increase and the evolution differs by disability severity. These results highlight the importance of adaptive long-term health and social care measures for stroke survivors.

Serum transthyretin and risk of cognitive decline and dementia: 22-year longitudinal study

Serum transthyretin (TTR) may be an early biomarker for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders (ADRD). We investigated associations of TTR measured at baseline with cognitive decline and incident ADRD and whether TTR trajectories differ between ADRD cases and non-cases, over 22 years before diagnosis. A total of 6024 adults aged 45-69 in 1997-1999 were followed up until 2019. TTR was assessed three times, and 297 cases of dementia were recorded. Higher TTR was associated with higher cognitive function at baseline; however, TTR was unrelated to subsequent change in cognitive function. TTR at baseline did not predict ADRD risk (hazard ratio per SD TTR (4.8 mg/dL) = 0.97; 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.00). Among those later diagnosed with ADRD, there was a marginally steeper downward TTR trajectory than those free of ADRD over follow-up (P=0.050). Our findings suggest TTR is not neuroprotective. The relative decline in TTR level in the preclinical stage of ADRD is likely to be a consequence of disease processes.

Sex differences in functional limitations and the role of socioeconomic factors: a multi-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Women are more likely to have functional limitations than are men, partly because of greater socioeconomic disadvantage. However, how sex differences vary by severity of functional limitations remains unclear. We examined sex differences in functional limitations, with attention to socioeconomic factors and severity of limitations.

METHODS

Longitudinal data on limitations in basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and mobility activities were drawn from 62 375 participants from 14 countries. For ADL, IADL, and mobility, participants were categorised based on number of limited activities (0, 1, 2, or ≥3). Sex differences in limitations in four birth cohorts (1895-1929, 1930-38, 1939-45, and 1946-60) were analysed before and after adjustment for socioeconomic factors (education and labour force status).

FINDINGS

The prevalence of IADL and ADL limitations was higher in women than in men. After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, this sex difference was attenuated. The sex difference in IADL limitations at age 75 years (in the 1895-1929 cohort) was 3·7% before adjustment for socioeconomic factors (95% CI 2·6-4·7) and 1·7% (1·1-2·2) after adjustment. For ADL, the sex difference in limitations at age 75 years (in the 1895-1929 cohort) was 3·2% (2·3-4·1) before adjustment for socioeconomic factors and 1·4% (0·9-1·8) after adjustment. Sex differences in mobility limitations (16·1%, 95% CI 14·4-17·7) remained after adjustment for socioeconomic factors (14·3%, 12·7-15·9). After age 85 years, women were more likely to have three or more IADL or mobility limitations and men were more likely to have one or two limitations.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic factors largely explain sex differences in IADL and ADL limitations but not mobility. Sex differences in mobility limitations in midlife are important targets for future research and interventions.

FUNDING

National Institute on Aging, UK National Institute for Health Research, European Commission, and US Social Security Administration.

Joint association between accelerometry-measured daily combination of time spent in physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep and all-cause mortality: a pooled analysis of six prospective cohorts using compositional analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the joint associations of daily time spent in different intensities of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep with all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Federated pooled analysis of six prospective cohorts with device-measured time spent in different intensities of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep following a standardised compositional Cox regression analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

130 239 people from general population samples of adults (average age 54 years) from the UK, USA and Sweden.

MAIN OUTCOME

All-cause mortality (follow-up 4.3-14.5 years).

RESULTS

Studies using wrist and hip accelerometer provided statistically different results (I2=92.2%, Q-test p<0.001). There was no association between duration of sleep and all-cause mortality, HR=0.96 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.12). The proportion of time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity was significantly associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR=0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71) wrist; HR=0.93 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) hip). A significant association for the ratio of time spent in light physical activity and sedentary time was only found in hip accelerometer-based studies (HR=0.5, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.62). In studies based on hip accelerometer, the association between moderate to vigorous physical activity and mortality was modified by the balance of time spent in light physical activity and sedentary time.

CONCLUSION

This federated analysis shows a joint dose-response association between the daily balance of time spent in physical activity of different intensities and sedentary behaviour with all-cause mortality, while sleep duration does not appear to be significant. The strongest association is with time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity, but it is modified by the balance of time spent in light physical activity relative to sedentary behaviour.

Daily composition of movement behaviors with cardiovascular disease incidence in elderly

Background

Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is proposed as key for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) prevention. At older ages, the role of sedentary behavior (SB) and light intensity physical activity (LIPA) remains unclear. Evidence so far is based on studies examining movement behaviors as independent entities ignoring their co-dependency. This study aims to examine the association between daily composition of objectively-assessed movement behaviors (MVPA, LIPA, SB) and incident CVD in older adults.

Methods

Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study participants free of CVD at baseline (N = 3319, 26.7% women, mean age=68.9 years in 2012-2013) wore a wrist-accelerometer from which times in SB, LIPA, and MVPA were extracted. Compositional Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for incident CVD for daily compositions of movement behaviors characterized by 10 (20 or 30) minutes greater duration in one movement behavior accompanied by decrease in another behavior, while keeping the third behavior constant, compared to reference composition.

Results

Of the 3319 participants, 299 had an incident CVD over a mean (SD) follow-up of 6.2 (1.3) years. Compared to individuals with daily movement behavior composition composed with MVPA at recommended 21 minutes per day (150 minutes/week), composition with additional 10 minutes of MVPA and 10 minutes less SB were associated with smaller risk reduction -8% (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99) - than the 14% increase in risk associated with a composition of similarly reduced time in MVPA and more time in SB (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.27). For a given MVPA duration, the CVD risk did not differ as a function of LIPA and SB durations.

Conclusions

An increase in MVPA duration at the expense of time in either SB or LIPA was associated with lower risk of incident CVD. This study lends support to public health guidelines encouraging increase in MVPA or at least maintain MVPA at their current duration.

Key messages

Older adults should be encouraged to increase their moderate-to-vigorous physical activity or at least maintain at their current levels to lower risk of incident cardiovascular disease. Highly sedentary older adults should increase their moderate-to-vigorous physical activity by decreasing sedentary time rather than light-intensity activity to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Sex differences in functional limitation level and the role of socioeconomic factors

Background

Women are more likely to have functional limitations than men, partly due to socioeconomic disadvantage. As much of this research is based on dichotomised measures of limitation, how sex differences vary by level of limitations remains unclear. The aim of our study was to examine sex differences in functional limitations in people born between 1895 and 1960, with attention to the role of socioeconomic factors and level of limitations.

Methods

Longitudinal data on limitations in basic/instrumental activities of daily living (ADL/IADL) and mobility activities were drawn from studies in 14 countries. For ADL, IADL, and mobility activities, participants were grouped into limitation levels based on number of limited activities (0, 1, 2, or ≥ 3). Sex differences in limitations in four birth cohorts (1895-1929, 1930-1938, 1939-1945, 1946-1960) were analysed before and after adjustment for socioeconomic factors using mixed effects ordinal logistic models.

Findings

Among 62,375 participants, sex differences in IADL and ADL limitations (≥1) were minor after adjustment for socioeconomic factors (sex difference in probability of limitations (female - male) age 75, 1895-1929 cohort for IADL=3.7% (95% CI 2.6, 4.7) before and 1.7% (1.1, 2.2) after adjustment; ADL=3.2% (2.3, 4.1) before, 1.4% (0.9, 1.8) after). Sex differences remained for mobility (16.1% (14.4, 17.7) before, 14.3% (12.7, 15.9) after). At older ages, women were more likely to have ≥3 IADL or mobility limitations, while men were more likely to have 1 to 2.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic factors explain the majority of sex differences in IADL and ADL limitations but not mobility, with women reporting greater mobility limitations than men starting in middle age. Our findings suggest sex differences in mobility limitations from middle age might be important targets for future study and interventions.

Key messages

Sex differences in disability vary considerably between disability measures. Comprehensive assessment of sex differences in disability should consider disability severity across different measures. Findings suggest there may be fewer sex differences in disability in the future with progressively decreasing socioeconomic disparities between men and women.

Terminal decline in objective and self-reported measures of motor function before death: 10 year follow-up of Whitehall II cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine multiple objective and self-reported measures of motor function for their associations with mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK based Whitehall II cohort study, which recruited participants aged 35-55 years in 1985-88; motor function component was added at the 2007-09 wave.

PARTICIPANTS

6194 participants with motor function measures in 2007-09 (mean age 65.6, SD 5.9), 2012-13, and 2015-16.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All cause mortality between 2007 and 2019 in relation to objective measures (walking speed, grip strength, and timed chair rises) and self-reported measures (physical component summary score of the SF-36 and limitations in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL)) of motor function.

RESULTS

One sex specific standard deviation poorer motor function in 2007-09 (cases/total, 610/5645) was associated with an increased mortality risk of 22% (95% confidence interval 12% to 33%) for walking speed, 15% (6% to 25%) for grip strength, 14% (7% to 23%) for timed chair rises, and 17% (8% to 26%) for physical component summary score over a mean 10.6 year follow-up. Having basic/instrumental ADL limitations was associated with a 30% (7% to 58%) increased mortality risk. These associations were progressively stronger when measures were drawn from 2012-13 (mean follow-up 6.8 years) and 2015-16 (mean follow-up 3.7 years). Analysis of trajectories showed poorer motor function in decedents (n=484) than survivors (n=6194) up to 10 years before death for timed chair rises (standardised difference 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.59; equivalent to a 1.2 (men) and 1.3 (women) second difference), nine years for walking speed (0.21, 0.05 to 0.36; 5.5 (men) and 5.3 (women) cm/s difference), six years for grip strength (0.10, 0.01 to 0.20; 0.9 (men) and 0.6 (women) kg difference), seven years for physical component summary score (0.15, 0.05 to 0.25; 1.2 (men) and 1.6 (women) score difference), and four years for basic/instrumental ADL limitations (prevalence difference 2%, 0% to 4%). These differences increased in the period leading to death for timed chair rises, physical component summary score, and ADL limitations.

CONCLUSION

Motor function in early old age has a robust association with mortality, with evidence of terminal decline emerging early in measures of overall motor function (timed chair rises and physical component summary score) and late in basic/instrumental ADL limitations.

Association of daily composition of physical activity and sedentary behaviour with incidence of cardiovascular disease in older adults

BACKGROUND

Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is proposed as key for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) prevention. At older ages, the role of sedentary behaviour (SB) and light intensity physical activity (LIPA) remains unclear. Evidence so far is based on studies examining movement behaviours as independent entities ignoring their co-dependency. This study examines the association between daily composition of objectively-assessed movement behaviours (MVPA, LIPA, SB) and incident CVD in older adults.

METHODS

Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study participants free of CVD at baseline (N = 3319, 26.7% women, mean age = 68.9 years in 2012-2013) wore a wrist-accelerometer from which times in SB, LIPA, and MVPA during waking period were extracted over 7 days. Compositional Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for incident CVD for daily compositions of movement behaviours characterized by 10 (20 or 30) minutes greater duration in one movement behaviour accompanied by decrease in another behaviour, while keeping the third behaviour constant, compared to reference composition. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic risk factors and multimorbidity index.

RESULTS

Of the 3319 participants, 299 had an incident CVD over a mean (SD) follow-up of 6.2 (1.3) years. Compared to daily movement behaviour composition with MVPA at recommended 21 min per day (150 min/week), composition with additional 10 min of MVPA and 10 min less SB was associated with smaller risk reduction - 8% (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99) - than the 14% increase in risk associated with a composition of similarly reduced time in MVPA and more time in SB (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.27). For a given MVPA duration, the CVD risk did not differ as a function of LIPA and SB durations.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults, an increase in MVPA duration at the expense of time in either SB or LIPA was found associated with lower incidence of CVD. This study lends support to public health guidelines encouraging increase in MVPA or at least maintain MVPA at current duration.

Comparison of the predictive accuracy of multiple definitions of cognitive impairment for incident dementia: a 20-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND

Studies generally use cognitive assessment done at one timepoint to define cognitive impairment in order to examine conversion to dementia. Our objective was to examine the predictive accuracy and conversion rate of seven alternate definitions of cognitive impairment for dementia.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we included participants from the Whitehall II cohort study who were assessed for cognitive impairment in 2007-09 and were followed up for clinically diagnosed dementia. Algorithms based on poor cognitive performance (defined using age-specific and sex-specific thresholds, and subsequently thresholds by education or occupation levels) and objective cognitive decline (using data from cognitive assessments in 1997-99, 2002-04, and 2007-09) were used to generate seven alternate definitions of cognitive impairment. We compared predictive accuracy using Royston's R 2, the Akaike information criterion (AIC), sensitivity, specificity, and Harrell's C-statistic.

FINDINGS

5687 participants, with a mean age of 65·7 years (SD 5·9) in 2007-09, were included and followed up for a median of 10·5 years (IQR 10·1-10·9). Over follow-up, 270 (4·7%) participants were clinically diagnosed with dementia. Cognitive impairment defined using both cognitive performance and decline had higher hazard ratios (from 5·08 [95% CI 3·82-6·76] to 5·48 [4·13-7·26]) for dementia than did definitions based on cognitive performance alone (from 3·25 [2·52-4·17] to 3·39 [2·64-4·36]) and cognitive decline alone (3·01 [2·37-3·82]). However, all definitions had poor predictive performance (C-statistic ranged from 0·591 [0·565-0·616] to 0·631 [0·601-0·660]), primarily due to low sensitivity (21·6-48·4%). A predictive model containing age, sex, and education without measures of cognitive impairment had better predictive performance (C-statistic 0·783 [0·758-0·809], sensitivity 74·2%, specificity 72·2%) than all seven definitions of cognitive impairment (all p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

These findings suggest that cognitive impairment in early old age might not be useful for dementia prediction, even when it is defined using longitudinal data on cognitive decline and thresholds of poor cognitive performance additionally defined by education or occupation.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council.

Timeline of pain before dementia diagnosis: a 27-year follow-up study

ABSTRACT

This study examines the importance of length of follow-up on the association between pain and incident dementia. Further objective was to characterize pain trajectories in the 27 years preceding dementia diagnosis and compare them with those among persons free of dementia during the same period. Pain intensity and pain interference (averaged as total pain) were measured on 9 occasions (1991-2016) using the Short-Form 36 Questionnaire amongst 9046 (women = 31.4%) dementia-free adults aged 40 to 64 years in 1991; 567 dementia cases were recorded between 1991 and 2019. Cox regression was used to assess the association between pain measures at different time points and incident dementia and mixed models to assess pain trajectories preceding dementia diagnosis or end point for dementia-free participants. Results from Cox regression showed moderate/severe compared with mild/no total pain, pain intensity, and pain interference not to be associated with dementia when the mean follow-up was 25.0, 19.6, 14.5, or 10.0 years. These associations were evident for a mean follow-up of 6.2 years: for total pain (hazard ratio = 1.72; 95% confidence intervals = 1.28-2.33), pain intensity (1.41; 1.04-1.92), and pain interference (1.80; 1.30-2.49). These associations were stronger when the mean follow-up for incidence of dementia was 3.2 years. Twenty-seven-year pain trajectories differed between dementia cases and noncases with small differences in total pain and pain interference evident 16 years before dementia diagnosis (difference in the total pain score = 1.4, 95% confidence intervals = 0.1-2.7) and rapidly increasing closer to diagnosis. In conclusion, these findings suggest that pain is a correlate or prodromal symptom rather than a cause of dementia.

Association Between Age at Diabetes Onset and Subsequent Risk of Dementia

IMPORTANCE

Trends in type 2 diabetes show an increase in prevalence along with younger age of onset. While vascular complications of early-onset type 2 diabetes are known, the associations with dementia remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether younger age at diabetes onset is more strongly associated with incidence of dementia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based study in the UK, the Whitehall II prospective cohort study, established in 1985-1988, with clinical examinations in 1991-1993, 1997-1999, 2002-2004, 2007-2009, 2012-2013, and 2015-2016, and linkage to electronic health records until March 2019. The date of final follow-up was March 31, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Type 2 diabetes, defined as a fasting blood glucose level greater than or equal to 126 mg/dL at clinical examination, physician-diagnosed type 2 diabetes, use of diabetes medication, or hospital record of diabetes between 1985 and 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident dementia ascertained through linkage to electronic health records.

RESULTS

Among 10 095 participants (67.3% men; aged 35-55 years in 1985-1988), a total of 1710 cases of diabetes and 639 cases of dementia were recorded over a median follow-up of 31.7 years. Dementia rates per 1000 person-years were 8.9 in participants without diabetes at age 70 years, and rates were 10.0 per 1000 person-years for participants with diabetes onset up to 5 years earlier, 13.0 for 6 to 10 years earlier, and 18.3 for more than 10 years earlier. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, compared with participants without diabetes at age 70, the hazard ratio (HR) of dementia in participants with diabetes onset more than 10 years earlier was 2.12 (95% CI, 1.50-3.00), 1.49 (95% CI, 0.95-2.32) for diabetes onset 6 to 10 years earlier, and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.70-1.76) for diabetes onset 5 years earlier or less; linear trend test (P < .001) indicated a graded association between age at onset of type 2 diabetes and dementia. At age 70, every 5-year younger age at onset of type 2 diabetes was significantly associated with an HR of dementia of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.06-1.46) in analyses adjusted for sociodemographic factors, health behaviors, and health-related measures.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this longitudinal cohort study with a median follow-up of 31.7 years, younger age at onset of diabetes was significantly associated with higher risk of subsequent dementia.

Association of sleep duration in middle and old age with incidence of dementia

Sleep dysregulation is a feature of dementia but it remains unclear whether sleep duration prior to old age is associated with dementia incidence. Using data from 7959 participants of the Whitehall II study, we examined the association between sleep duration and incidence of dementia (521 diagnosed cases) using a 25-year follow-up. Here we report higher dementia risk associated with a sleep duration of six hours or less at age 50 and 60, compared with a normal (7 h) sleep duration, although this was imprecisely estimated for sleep duration at age 70 (hazard ratios (HR) 1.22 (95% confidence interval 1.01-1.48), 1.37 (1.10-1.72), and 1.24 (0.98-1.57), respectively). Persistent short sleep duration at age 50, 60, and 70 compared to persistent normal sleep duration was also associated with a 30% increased dementia risk independently of sociodemographic, behavioural, cardiometabolic, and mental health factors. These findings suggest that short sleep duration in midlife is associated with an increased risk of late-onset dementia.

GRANADA consensus on analytical approaches to assess associations with accelerometer-determined physical behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) in epidemiological studies

The inter-relationship between physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep (collectively defined as physical behaviours) is of interest to researchers from different fields. Each of these physical behaviours has been investigated in epidemiological studies, yet their codependency and interactions need to be further explored and accounted for in data analysis. Modern accelerometers capture continuous movement through the day, which presents the challenge of how to best use the richness of these data. In recent years, analytical approaches first applied in other scientific fields have been applied to physical behaviour epidemiology (eg, isotemporal substitution models, compositional data analysis, multivariate pattern analysis, functional data analysis and machine learning). A comprehensive description, discussion, and consensus on the strengths and limitations of these analytical approaches will help researchers decide which approach to use in different situations. In this context, a scientific workshop and meeting were held in Granada to discuss: (1) analytical approaches currently used in the scientific literature on physical behaviour, highlighting strengths and limitations, providing practical recommendations on their use and including a decision tree for assisting researchers’ decision-making; and (2) current gaps and future research directions around the analysis and use of accelerometer data. Advances in analytical approaches to accelerometer-determined physical behaviours in epidemiological studies are expected to influence the interpretation of current and future evidence, and ultimately impact on future physical behaviour guidelines.

Sex differences and the role of education in cognitive ageing: analysis of two UK-based prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown an excess risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias among women. Education is thought to have a causal association with dementia onset. We aimed to investigate the role of education in influencing sex differences in cognitive ageing.

METHODS

We analysed data from two prospective cohort studies in the UK; the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Whitehall II study, to assess sex differences in cognitive performance and cognitive decline by birth cohort (birth year 1930-38, 1939-45, or 1946-55), before and after adjustment for education, and by high and low education level. Memory was assessed using immediate recall, for which data were available from all waves of the ELSA (2002-14) and Whitehall II (1997-2015) studies. Fluency was assessed using a semantic fluency test based on an animal naming task, with data available from all waves of the Whitehall II study and waves one to five (2002-10) and wave seven (2014) of the ELSA study. Cognitive scores were standardised separately in each study based on the mean and SD of the corresponding test among participants aged 50-59 years with secondary education.

FINDINGS

15 924 participants were included from the two studies. In pooled analyses, women had better memory scores than men in all birth cohorts, irrespective of adjustment for education (eg, at age 60 years, birth cohort 1930-38, mean difference between sexes [male scores minus female scores] -0·25 SDs [95% CI -0·32 to -0·19] after adjustment for education), and in both education level groups. Memory decline was faster in men than in women (at age 60 years, birth cohort 1946-55, mean difference in 13-year change -0·15 SDs [-0·20 to -0·09]; after adjustment for education -0·14 SDs [-0·20 to -0·08]). Men had better fluency scores than women in earlier birth cohorts and in the low education group (at age 60 years, birth cohort 1930-38, mean difference 0·20 SDs [95% CI 0·05 to 0·36]); but women had better fluency scores than men in later birth cohorts and in the high education group (at age 60 years, birth cohort 1946-55, mean difference -0·17 SDs [-0·24 to -0·10]). No sex differences were observed for fluency decline.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that decreasing disparities between sexes in education, due to secular increases in educational opportunities, could attenuate sex differences in dementia risk and cognitive decline in the future.

FUNDING

National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; and National Institute for Health Research.

Sleep classification from wrist-worn accelerometer data using random forests

Accurate and low-cost sleep measurement tools are needed in both clinical and epidemiological research. To this end, wearable accelerometers are widely used as they are both low in price and provide reasonably accurate estimates of movement. Techniques to classify sleep from the high-resolution accelerometer data primarily rely on heuristic algorithms. In this paper, we explore the potential of detecting sleep using Random forests. Models were trained using data from three different studies where 134 adult participants (70 with sleep disorder and 64 good healthy sleepers) wore an accelerometer on their wrist during a one-night polysomnography recording in the clinic. The Random forests were able to distinguish sleep-wake states with an F1 score of 73.93% on a previously unseen test set of 24 participants. Detecting when the accelerometer is not worn was also successful using machine learning ([Formula: see text]), and when combined with our sleep detection models on day-time data provide a sleep estimate that is correlated with self-reported habitual nap behaviour ([Formula: see text]). These Random forest models have been made open-source to aid further research. In line with literature, sleep stage classification turned out to be difficult using only accelerometer data.

The association of APOE ε4 with cognitive function over the adult life course and incidence of dementia: 20 years follow-up of the Whitehall II study

BACKGROUND

Approximately 25% of the general population carries at least one ε4 allele of the Apolipoprotein E (APOE ε4), the strongest genetic risk factor for late onset Alzheimer's disease. Beyond its association with late-onset dementia, the association between APOE ε4 and change in cognition over the adult life course remains uncertain. This study aims to examine whether the association between Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 zygosity and cognition function is modified between midlife and old age.

METHODS

A cohort study of 5561 participants (mean age 55.5 (SD = 5.9) years, 27.1% women) with APOE genotyping and repeated cognitive tests for reasoning, memory, and semantic and phonemic fluency, during a mean (SD) follow-up of 20.2 (2.8) years (the Whitehall II study). We used joint models to examine the association of APOE genotype with cognitive function trajectories between 45 and 85 years taking drop-out, dementia, and death into account and Fine and Gray models to examine associations with dementia.

RESULTS

Compared to non-carriers, heterozygote (prevalence 25%) and homozygote (prevalence 2%) APOE ε4 carriers had increased risk of dementia, sub-distribution hazard ratios 2.19 (95% CI 1.73, 2.77) and 5.97 (95% CI 3.85, 9.28) respectively. Using data spanning 45-85 years with non-ε4 carriers as the reference, ε4 homozygotes had poorer global cognitive score starting from 65 years; ε4 heterozygotes had better scores between 45 and 55 years, then no difference until poorer cognitive scores from 75 years onwards. In analysis of individual cognitive tests, better cognitive performance in the younger ε4 heterozygotes was primarily attributable to executive function.

CONCLUSIONS

Both heterozygous and homozygous ε4 carriers had poorer cognition and greater risk of dementia at older ages. Our findings show some support for a complex antagonist pleiotropic effect of APOE ε4 heterozygosity over the adult life course, characterized by cognitive advantage in midlife.

Leisure activity participation and risk of dementia: An 18-year follow-up of the Whitehall II Study

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that leisure activity participation is associated with lower dementia risk, we examined the association between participation in leisure activities and incident dementia in a large longitudinal study with average 18-year follow-up.

METHODS

We used data from 8,280 participants of the Whitehall II prospective cohort study. A 13-item scale assessed leisure activity participation in 1997-1999, 2002-2004, and 2007-2009, and incidence of dementia (n cases = 360, mean age at diagnosis 76.2 years, incidence rate 2.4 per 1,000 person-years) was ascertained from 3 comprehensive national registers with follow-up until March 2017. Primary analyses were based on complete cases (n = 6,050, n cases = 247) and sensitivity analyses used multiple imputation for missing data.

RESULTS

Participation in leisure activities at mean age 55.8 (1997-1999 assessment), with 18.0-year follow-up, was not associated with dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 0.92 [95% confidence interval 0.79-1.06]), but those with higher participation at mean age 65.7 (2007-2009 assessment) were less likely to develop dementia with 8.3-year follow-up (HR 0.82 [0.69-0.98]). No specific type of leisure activity was consistently associated with dementia risk. Decline in participation between 1997-1999 and 2007-2009 was associated with subsequent dementia risk.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that participation in leisure activities declines in the preclinical phase of dementia; there was no robust evidence for a protective association between leisure activity participation and dementia. Future research should investigate the sociobehavioral, cognitive, and neurobiological drivers of decline in leisure activity participation to determine potential approaches to improving social participation of those developing dementia.

Association of Alcohol-Induced Loss of Consciousness and Overall Alcohol Consumption With Risk for Dementia

IMPORTANCE

Evidence on alcohol consumption as a risk factor for dementia usually relates to overall consumption. The role of alcohol-induced loss of consciousness is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the risk of future dementia associated with overall alcohol consumption and alcohol-induced loss of consciousness in a population of current drinkers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Seven cohort studies from the UK, France, Sweden, and Finland (IPD-Work consortium) including 131 415 participants were examined. At baseline (1986-2012), participants were aged 18 to 77 years, reported alcohol consumption, and were free of diagnosed dementia. Dementia was examined during a mean follow-up of 14.4 years (range, 12.3-30.1). Data analysis was conducted from November 17, 2019, to May 23, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Self-reported overall consumption and loss of consciousness due to alcohol consumption were assessed at baseline. Two thresholds were used to define heavy overall consumption: greater than 14 units (U) (UK definition) and greater than 21 U (US definition) per week.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Dementia and alcohol-related disorders to 2016 were ascertained from linked electronic health records.

RESULTS

Of the 131 415 participants (mean [SD] age, 43.0 [10.4] years; 80 344 [61.1%] women), 1081 individuals (0.8%) developed dementia. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.98-1.37) for consuming greater than 14 vs 1 to 14 U of alcohol per week and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.01-1.48) for greater than 21 vs 1 to 21 U/wk. Of the 96 591 participants with data on loss of consciousness, 10 004 individuals (10.4%) reported having lost consciousness due to alcohol consumption in the past 12 months. The association between loss of consciousness and dementia was observed in men (HR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.77-4.63) and women (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.34-3.25) during the first 10 years of follow-up (HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.78-4.15), after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.16-2.99), and for early-onset (<65 y: HR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.46-3.34) and late-onset (≥65 y: HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.66) dementia, Alzheimer disease (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.28-3.07), and dementia with features of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (HR, 4.18; 95% CI, 1.86-9.37). The association with dementia was not explained by 14 other alcohol-related conditions. With moderate drinkers (1-14 U/wk) who had not lost consciousness as the reference group, the HR for dementia was twice as high in participants who reported having lost consciousness, whether their mean weekly consumption was moderate (HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.42-3.37) or heavy (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.57-3.54).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that alcohol-induced loss of consciousness, irrespective of overall alcohol consumption, is associated with a subsequent increase in the risk of dementia.