Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america

BACKGROUND

Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years.

METHODS

Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH.

RESULTS

During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS.

CONCLUSION

Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts.

CONCLUSIONS

The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Lower endoscopy, early-onset, and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest a lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and lower or similar CRC screening among people with HIV (PWH) compared with the general population. We evaluated the incidence of lower endoscopy and average-onset (diagnosed at ≥50) and early-onset (diagnosed at <50) colon cancer by HIV status among Medicaid beneficiares with comparable sociodemographic factors and access to care.

METHODS

We obtained Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from 2001 to 2015 for 14 states. We included 41 727 243 and 42 062 552 unique individuals with at least 7 months of continuous eligibility for the endoscopy and colon cancer analysis, respectively. HIV and colon cancer diagnoses and endoscopy procedures were identified from inpatient and other nondrug claims. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess endoscopy and colon cancer incidence, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, calendar year and state of enrollment, and comorbidities conditions.

RESULTS

Endoscopy and colon cancer incidence increased with age in both groups. Compared with beneficiaries without HIV, PWH had an increased hazard of endoscopy; this association was strongest among those 18-39 years [hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.77-1.92] and attenuated with age. PWH 18-39 years also had increased hazard of early-onset colon cancer (hazard ratio: 1.66, 95% CI:1.05-2.62); this association was attenuated after comorbidity adjustment. Hazard ratios were null among all beneficiaries less than 50 years of age. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer compared with those without HIV (hazard ratio: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94).

CONCLUSION

PWH had a higher hazard of endoscopy, particularly at younger ages. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer. Early-onset colon cancer was higher among the youngest PWH but not associated with HIV overall.

Hepatitis B care cascade among people with HIV/HBV coinfection in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, 2012-2016

A care cascade is a critical tool for evaluating delivery of care for chronic infections across sequential stages, starting with diagnosis and ending with viral suppression. However, there have been few data describing the hepatitis B virus (HBV) care cascade among people living with HIV infection who have HBV coinfection. We conducted a cross-sectional study among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection receiving care between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016 within 13 United States and Canadian clinical cohorts contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). We evaluated each of the steps in this cascade, including: 1) laboratory-confirmed HBV infection, 2) tenofovir-based or entecavir-based HBV therapy prescribed, 3) HBV DNA measured during treatment, and 4) viral suppression achieved via undetectable HBV DNA. Among 3,953 persons with laboratory-confirmed HBV (median age, 50 years; 6.5% female; 43.8% were Black; 7.1% were Hispanic), 3,592 (90.9%; 95% confidence interval, 90.0-91.8%) were prescribed tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy or entecavir along with their antiretroviral therapy regimen, 2,281 (57.7%; 95% confidence interval, 56.2-59.2%) had HBV DNA measured while on therapy, and 1,624 (41.1%; 95% confidence interval, 39.5-42.6) achieved an undetectable HBV DNA during HBV treatment. Our study identified significant gaps in measurement of HBV DNA and suppression of HBV viremia among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection in the United States and Canada. Periodic evaluation of the HBV care cascade among persons with HIV/HBV will be critical to monitoring success in completion of each step.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout

BACKGROUND

People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection.

METHODS

Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only).

RESULTS

Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15-1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19-1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73-.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62-.81]).

CONCLUSIONS

Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Abstract 4204: Incidence of early-onset and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV: a cohort study

Background: Colorectal cancer has increased among people living with HIV (PLWH). Studies have reported either no difference or lower risk of colorectal cancer incidence among PLWH as compared to the general population. We evaluated the incidence of colon cancer, both average-onset (diagnosed at 50 or older) and early-onset (diagnosed at less than 50), among a diverse population of people with and without HIV who have comparable sociodemographic factors and access to care.

Methods: We obtained Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from 2001-2015 for 14 states. We included 42,244,679 unique individuals with at least 7 months of continuous eligibility. HIV and colon cancer diagnoses were identified from inpatient and other non-drug claims. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the incidence of colon cancer, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, calendar year of enrollment, state of enrollment, and number of comorbidities. Analyses were also adjusted for or stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

Findings: We identified 191 colon cancer cases among 523,969 person-years among PLWH and 15,098 colon cancer cases among 63,579,078 person-years among beneficiaries without HIV. Colon cancer incidence increased with age among beneficiaries with and without HIV. Overall, HIV was modestly, inversely associated with colon cancer incidence (HR:0.84, 95%CI: 0.73, 0.98). PLWH 18-39 years old had increased hazard of colon cancer as compared to those without HIV (HR:1.67, 95%CI: 1.06, 2.65); this association was attenuated after adjustment for co-morbidities. HRs were null when early-onset colon cancer was assessed among all beneficiaries less than 50 years. PLWH had lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer compared to those without HIV (HR:0.81, 95%CI: 0.68, 0.96); this association was statistically significant among male, but not female, beneficiaries.

Interpretation: Compared to beneficiaries without HIV, PLWH had a lower risk of average-onset colon cancer. PLWH had higher incidence of early-onset colon cancer, but this difference was attenuated after adjustment for comorbid conditions.

Citation Format: Corinne Joshu, Keri Calkins, Jacqueline E. Rudolph, Xiaoqiang Xu, Eryka Wentz, Maneet Kaur, Filip Pirsl, Sally B. Coburn, Richard D. Moore, Bryan Lau. Incidence of early-onset and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV: a cohort study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 4204.

The changing prevalence of anemia and risk factors in people with HIV in North America who have initiated ART, 2007-2017

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the prevalence of anemia and risk factors between 2007 and 2017 for moderate/severe anemia among people with HIV (PWH) in North America who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART).

DESIGN

Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD).

METHODS

We estimated the annual prevalence between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017 of mild (11.0-12.9 g/dl men, 11.0-11.9 g/dl women), moderate (8.0-10.9 g/dl regardless of sex) and severe (<8.0 g/dl regardless of sex) anemia. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals ([-]) comparing risk factors for moderate/severe vs. no/mild anemia between 2007 and 2017.

RESULTS

Among 73 898 PWH we observed 366 755 hemoglobin measurements following ART initiation, 37 301 (50%) had one or more measures of anemia during follow-up (mild = 17 743 [24%]; moderate = 13 383[18%]; severe = 6175 [8%]). Moderate/severe anemia was more prevalent among women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic PWH (vs. non-Hispanic white), those with underweight body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2) and with comorbidities and coinfections. Older age had increased prevalence of moderate/severe anemia among males and decreased prevalence among females. Prevalence of moderate/severe anemia was greater among those with lower CD4+ cell count (≤200 cells/μl) [aPR = 2.11 (2.06-2.17)] unsuppressed HIV viral load (>200 copies/ml) [aPR = 1.26 (1.23-1.29)] and within the first 6 months of ART initiation (vs. >1 year of ART) [aPR = 1.66 (1.61-1.72)].

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of anemia among PWH is reduced after ART initiation but remains high. Risk factors differ by sex and include comorbidities and HIV disease severity. The persistent, substantial prevalence of anemia among PWH merits further investigation, targeted screening, and clinical interventions.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US

Importance

Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes.

Objectives

To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

Exposures

Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens.

Results

Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Statins Utilization in Adults With HIV: The Treatment Gap and Predictors of Statin Initiation

BACKGROUND

We characterized trends in statin eligibility and subsequent statin initiation among people with HIV (PWH) from 2001 to 2017 and identified predictors of statin initiation between 2014 and 2017.

SETTING

PWH participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) enrolled in 12 US cohorts collecting data on statin eligibility criteria/prescriptions from 2001 to 2017.

METHODS

We determined the annual proportion eligible for statins, initiating statins, and median waiting time (from statin eligibility to initiation). Eligibility was defined using ATP III guidelines (2001-2013) and ACC/AHA guidelines (2014-2017). We assessed initiation predictors in 2014-2017 among statin-eligible PWH using Poisson regression, estimating adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

Among 16,409 PWH, 7386 (45%) met statin eligibility criteria per guidelines (2001-2017). From 2001 to 2013, statin eligibility ranged from 22% to 25%. Initiation increased from 13% to 45%. In 2014, 51% were statin-eligible, among whom 25% initiated statins, which increased to 32% by 2017. Median waiting time to initiation among those we observed declined over time. Per 10-year increase in age, initiation increased 46% (aPR 1.46, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.67). Per 1-year increase in calendar year from 2014 to 2017, there was a 41% increase in the likelihood of statin initiation (aPR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.58).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a substantial statin treatment gap, amplified by the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines. Measures are warranted to clarify reasons we observe this gap, and if necessary, increase statin use consistent with guidelines including efforts to help providers identify appropriate candidates.

Analysis of Severe Illness After Postvaccination COVID-19 Breakthrough Among Adults With and Without HIV in the US

IMPORTANCE

Understanding the severity of postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 (ie, COVID-19) breakthrough illness among people with HIV (PWH) can inform vaccine guidelines and risk-reduction recommendations.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rate and risk of severe breakthrough illness among vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) who experience a breakthrough infection.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cohort study, the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET-II) collaboration included adults (aged ≥18 years) with HIV who were receiving care and were fully vaccinated by June 30, 2021, along with PWoH matched according to date fully vaccinated, age group, race, ethnicity, and sex from 4 US integrated health systems and academic centers. Those with postvaccination COVID-19 breakthrough before December 31, 2021, were eligible.

EXPOSURES

HIV infection.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness, defined as hospitalization within 28 days after a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection with a primary or secondary COVID-19 discharge diagnosis. Discrete time proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs of severe breakthrough illness within 28 days of breakthrough COVID-19 by HIV status adjusting for demographic variables, COVID-19 vaccine type, and clinical factors. The proportion of patients who received mechanical ventilation or died was compared by HIV status.

RESULTS

Among 3649 patients with breakthrough COVID-19 (1241 PWH and 2408 PWoH), most were aged 55 years or older (2182 patients [59.8%]) and male (3244 patients [88.9%]). The cumulative incidence of severe illness in the first 28 days was low and comparable between PWoH and PWH (7.3% vs 6.7%; risk difference, -0.67%; 95% CI, -2.58% to 1.23%). The risk of severe breakthrough illness was 59% higher in PWH with CD4 cell counts less than 350 cells/μL compared with PWoH (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.46; P = .049). In multivariable analyses among PWH, being female, older, having a cancer diagnosis, and lower CD4 cell count were associated with increased risk of severe breakthrough illness, whereas previous COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk. Among 249 hospitalized patients, 24 (9.6%) were mechanically ventilated and 20 (8.0%) died, with no difference by HIV status.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, the risk of severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness within 28 days of a breakthrough infection was low among vaccinated PWH and PWoH. PWH with moderate or severe immune suppression had a higher risk of severe breakthrough infection and should be included in groups prioritized for additional vaccine doses and risk-reduction strategies.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and Cancer Risk Among Adults With HIV

BACKGROUND

Independent of CD4 cell count, a low CD4/CD8 ratio in people with HIV (PWH) is associated with deleterious immune senescence, activation, and inflammation, which may contribute to carcinogenesis and excess cancer risk. We examined whether low CD4/CD8 ratios predicted cancer among PWH in the United States and Canada.

METHODS

We examined all cancer-free PWH with 1 or more CD4/CD8 values from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design observational cohorts with validated cancer diagnoses between 1998 and 2016. We evaluated the association between time-lagged CD4/CD8 ratio and risk of specific cancers in multivariable, time-updated Cox proportional hazard models using restricted cubic spines. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, hepatitis C virus, and time-updated CD4 cell count, HIV RNA, and history of AIDS-defining illness.

RESULTS

Among 83 893 PWH, there were 5628 incident cancers, including lung cancer (n = 755), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 501), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 497), and anal cancer (n = 439). The median age at cohort entry was 43 years. The overall median 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.52 (interquartile range = 0.30-0.82). Compared with a 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 of 0.80, a CD4/CD8 of 0.30 was associated with increased risk of any incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.24 [95% confidence interval = 1.14 to 1.35]). The CD4/CD8 ratio was also inversely associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, lung cancer, anal cancer, and colorectal cancer in adjusted analyses (all 2-sided P < .05). Results were similar using 12-, 18-, and 24-month lagged CD4/CD8 values.

CONCLUSIONS

A low CD4/CD8 ratio up to 24 months before cancer diagnosis was independently associated with increased cancer risk in PWH and may serve as a clinical biomarker.

Analysis of Postvaccination Breakthrough COVID-19 Infections Among Adults With HIV in the United States

Importance

Recommendations for additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines for people with HIV (PWH) are restricted to those with advanced disease or unsuppressed HIV viral load. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection risk after vaccination among PWH is essential for informing vaccination guidelines.

Objective

To estimate the rate and risk of breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) in the United States.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET)-II (of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design [NA-ACCORD], which is part of the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS [IeDEA]), collaboration of 4 prospective, electronic health record-based cohorts from integrated health systems and academic health centers. Adult PWH who were fully vaccinated prior to June 30, 2021, were matched with PWoH on date of full vaccination, age, race and ethnicity, and sex and followed up through December 31, 2021.

Exposures

HIV infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

COVID-19 breakthrough infections, defined as laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 diagnosis after a patient was fully vaccinated.

Results

Among 113 994 patients (33 029 PWH and 80 965 PWoH), most were 55 years or older (80 017 [70%]) and male (104 967 [92%]); 47 098 (41%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 43 218 (38%) were non-Hispanic White. The rate of breakthrough infections was higher in PWH vs PWoH (55 [95% CI, 52-58] cases per 1000 person-years vs 43 [95% CI, 42-45] cases per 1000 person-years). Cumulative incidence of breakthroughs 9 months after full vaccination was low (3.8% [95% CI, 3.7%-3.9%]), albeit higher in PWH vs PWoH (4.4% vs 3.5%; log-rank P < .001; risk difference, 0.9% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.2%]) and within each vaccine type. Breakthrough infection risk was 28% higher in PWH vs PWoH (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.19-1.37]). Among PWH, younger age (<45 y vs 45-54 y), history of COVID-19, and not receiving an additional dose (aHR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.58-0.88]) were associated with increased risk of breakthrough infections. There was no association of breakthrough with HIV viral load suppression, but high CD4 count (ie, ≥500 cells/mm3) was associated with fewer breakthroughs among PWH.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, COVID-19 vaccination, especially with an additional dose, was effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating through December 31, 2021. PWH had an increased risk of breakthrough infections compared with PWoH. Expansion of recommendations for additional vaccine doses to all PWH should be considered.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Seroprevalence in Decedents Undergoing Forensic Postmortem Examination: Feasibility for &#x2028;Real-Time Pandemic Surveillance

Background

Population-based seroprevalence studies offer comprehensive characterization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread, but barriers exist and marginalized populations may not be captured. We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody seroprevalence among decedents in Maryland over 6 months in 2020.

Methods

Data were collected on decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination in Maryland from 24 May through 30 November 2020 from whom a blood specimen could be collected. Those with available blood specimens were tested with the CoronaCHEK lateral flow antibody assay. We assessed monthly seroprevalence compared to the statewide estimated number of cases and proportion of positive test results (testing positivity). We used Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of demographic characteristics, homelessness, and manner of death with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

Results

Among 1906 decedents, 305 (16%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Monthly seroprevalence increased from 11% to 22% over time and was consistently higher than state-level estimates of testing positivity. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with 2- to 3.2-fold higher seropositivity (P < .05) irrespective of sex. Deaths due to motor vehicle crash were associated with 62% increased seropositivity (aPR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.15–2.28]) vs natural manner of death. Though seroprevalence was lower in decedents of illicit drug overdose vs nonoverdose in early months, this shifted, and seroprevalence was comparable by November 2020.

Conclusions

Decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination, especially those dying due to motor vehicle trauma, may be a sentinel population for COVID-19 spread in the general population and merits exploration in other states/regions.

The Association Between HIV Status, Estradiol, and Sex Hormone Binding Globulin Among Premenopausal Women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study

Background: Characterizing estradiol among women with HIV may have implications for breast cancer and cardiovascular disease risk but has not been adequately explored. We quantified differences in total (E2), free (FE2) estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by HIV and viral suppression status. Methods: Women from a substudy (2003-2006) within the Women's Interagency HIV Study (IRB approved at each participating site) were included if they reported: a period in the last six months, were not pregnant/breastfeeding, no oophorectomy, and no exogenous hormone use in the prior year. Serum was collected on days 2-4 of the menstrual cycle. We assessed differences in biomarkers at 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles by HIV and viral suppression status using weighted quantile regression. Results: Among 643 women (68% with HIV) median age was 37 years. All E2 percentiles were significantly (p < 0.05) lower in women with suppressed viral load versus women without HIV (4-10 pg/mL). The 25th and 50th percentile of E2 were 4-5 pg/mL lower in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (p < 0.05). The 25th and 50th percentile of SHBG was significantly higher in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (10 and 12 nmol/L, respectively). There were no consistent differences in estradiol or SHBG by suppression status. Conclusions: There were no differences in FE2 but significantly lower E2 and higher SHBG among women with HIV versus without HIV. Further research is merited in a large contemporary sample to clarify the clinical implications of these findings.

Association of the VACS Index With Hospitalization Among People With HIV in the NA-ACCORD

BACKGROUND

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher hospitalization rate than the general population. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index at study entry well predicts hospitalization in PWH, but it is unknown if the time-updated parameter improves hospitalization prediction. We assessed the association of parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 with the 5-year risk of hospitalization.

SETTING

PWH ≥30 years old with at least 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use and contributing hospitalization data from 2000 to 2016 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included. Three parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 were assessed and categorized by quartile: (1) "baseline" measurement at study entry; (2) time-updated measurements; and (3) cumulative scores calculated using the trapezoidal rule.

METHODS

Discrete-time proportional hazard models estimated the crude and adjusted associations (and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of the VACS Index parameterizations and all-cause hospitalizations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) assessed the model fit with each of the VACS Index parameters.

RESULTS

Among 7289 patients, 1537 were hospitalized. Time-updated VACS Index fitted hospitalization best with a more distinct dose-response relationship [score <43: reference; score 43-55: aHR = 1.93 (95% CI: 1.66 to 2.23); score 55-68: aHR = 3.63 (95% CI: 3.12 to 4.23); score ≥68: aHR = 9.98 (95% CI: 8.52 to 11.69)] than study entry and cumulative VACS Index after adjusting for known risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-updated VACS Index 2.0 had the strongest association with hospitalization and best fit to the data. Health care providers should consider using it when assessing hospitalization risk among PWH.

COVID-19 infections post-vaccination by HIV status in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Recommendations for additional doses of COVID vaccine are restricted to people with HIV who have advanced disease or unsuppressed HIV viral load. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection risk post-vaccination among PWH is essential for informing vaccination guidelines.

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the risk of breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated people with (PWH) and without (PWoH) HIV in the US.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET)-II cohort collaboration consists of 4 longitudinal cohorts from integrated health systems and academic health centers. Each cohort identified individuals ≥18 years old, in-care, and fully vaccinated for COVID-19 through 30 June 2021. PWH were matched to PWoH on date fully vaccinated, age group, race/ethnicity, and sex at birth. Incidence rates per 1,000 person-years and cumulative incidence of breakthrough infections with 95% confidence intervals ([,]) were estimated by HIV status. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of breakthrough infections by HIV status adjusting for demographic factors, prior COVID-19 illness, vaccine type (BNT162b2, [Pfizer], mRNA-1273 [Moderna], Jansen Ad26.COV2.S [J&J]), calendar time, and cohort. Risk factors for breakthroughs among PWH, were also investigated.

EXPOSURE

HIV infection.

OUTCOME

COVID-19 breakthrough infections, defined as laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 diagnosis after an individual was fully vaccinated.

RESULTS

Among 109,599 individuals (31,840 PWH and 77,759 PWoH), the rate of breakthrough infections was higher in PWH versus PWoH: 44 [41, 48] vs. 31 [29, 33] per 1,000 person-years. Cumulative incidence at 210 days after date fully vaccinated was low, albeit higher in PWH versus PWoH overall (2.8% versus 2.1%, log-rank p<0.001, risk difference=0.7% [0.4%, 1.0%]) and within each vaccine type. Breakthrough infection risk was 41% higher in PWH versus PWoH (aHR=1.41 [1.28, 1.56]). Among PWH, younger age (18-24 versus 45-54), history of COVID-19 prior to fully vaccinated date, and J&J vaccination (versus Pfizer) were associated with increased risk of breakthroughs. There was no association of breakthrough with HIV viral load suppression or CD4 count among PWH.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

COVID-19 vaccination is effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating through 30 Sept 2021. PWH have an increased risk of breakthrough infections compared to PWoH. Recommendations for additional vaccine doses should be expanded to all PWH.

The Relationship of APOE ε4, Race, and Sex on the Age of Onset and Risk of Dementia

Objective: To investigate whether APOE ε4 genotype—an established risk factor for dementia—is associated with earlier age at diagnosis in addition to increased risk overall and in secondary analysis by race and sex.

Methods: We followed up 13,782 dementia-free individuals (n = 10,137 White, n = 3,645 Black, baseline age 60–66 years) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study for up to 30 years. Dementia was operationalized using standardized algorithms incorporating longitudinal cognitive change, proxy report, and hospital or death certificate dementia codes. We used a mixture of generalized gamma distributions to simultaneously estimate time to dementia, time to dementia-free death, and the proportion of individuals with dementia, by APOE ε4 status (≥1 vs. no alleles).

Results: Median age of dementia onset among APOE ε4 carriers was 81.7 (Blacks) and 83.3 years (Whites) compared with 82.6 (Blacks) and 85.7 years (Whites) in non-APOE ε4 carriers (p > 0.05 Blacks; p < 0.01 Whites). Age of dementia diagnosis did not differ by sex in ε4 carriers, but among non-carriers, average age was earlier in males than females regardless of race. APOE ε4 carriers had on average a higher proportion of diagnoses; results did not differ by race or sex.

Conclusions:APOE ε4 carrier status is associated with earlier age of dementia diagnosis with differences across race and sex. These findings clarify the causal role of APOE in dementia etiology, which could help better identify at-risk subgroups and may help facilitate better research trial recruitment and design.

Secular Trends in Breast Cancer Risk Among Women With HIV Initiating ART in North America

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest lower risk of breast cancer in women with HIV versus without HIV. These estimates may be biased by lower life expectancy and younger age distribution of women with HIV. Our analysis evaluated this bias and characterized secular trends in breast cancer among women with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesized breast cancer risk would increase over time as mortality decreased.

SETTING

Women with HIV prescribed antiretroviral therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1997 through 2016.

METHODS

We estimated breast cancer hazard (cause-specific hazard ratios) and cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks (subdistribution hazard ratios) to assess changes in breast cancer risk over time. This was assessed overall (1997-2016) and within/across calendar periods. Analyses were adjusted for race/ethnicity and inverse probability weighted for cohort. Cumulative incidence was graphically assessed by calendar period and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

We observed 11,587 women during 1997-2016, contributing 63 incident breast cancer diagnoses and 1,353 deaths [73,445 person-years (median follow-up = 4.5 years)]. Breast cancer cumulative incidence was 3.2% for 1997-2016. We observed no secular trends in breast cancer hazard or cumulative incidence. There were annual declines in the hazard and cumulative incidence of death (cause-specific hazard ratios and subdistribution hazard ratios: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.91) which remained within and across calendar periods.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings contradict the hypothesis of increasing breast cancer risk with declining mortality over time among women with HIV, suggesting limited impact of changing mortality on breast cancer risk. Additional inquiry is merited as survival improves among women with HIV.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Status in Decedents Undergoing Forensic Postmortem Examination in Maryland, May 24 to June 30, 2020

Seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies was 10% among the subset of decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination in June in Maryland. Decedents of motor vehicle crashes had similar seroprevalence compared with those with a natural death (including decedents with SARS-CoV-2 infection). Decedents of motor vehicle crashes may be a sentinel surveillance population.

Recommendations to the Society for Epidemiologic Research for Further Promoting Diversity and Inclusion at the Annual Meeting and Beyond

Increasing diverse engagement in the Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) will positively impact the field of epidemiology. As the largest and longest-running epidemiologic society in North America, SER has long been a pioneer in promoting diversity and inclusion. A recent survey of SER members, however, showed there is still room for improving diversity, inclusion, representation, and participation in the Society. In this commentary, as members of both the SER and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology's Inclusion, Diversity, Equity, Anti-Racism, and Science (Epi IDEAS) Working Group, we recommend 4 goals for the SER Annual Meeting and beyond: 1) convene epidemiologic researchers with diverse backgrounds and ideas; 2) promote an inclusive environment at the SER Annual Meeting; 3) develop, compile, and disseminate best practices to honor diversity in epidemiologic research; and 4) increase prioritization of health disparities research and methods. We also suggest strategies for achieving these goals so that SER can better include, support, and elevate members from historically disadvantaged groups. While our recommendations are tailored specifically to SER, the greater epidemiologic and academic communities could benefit from adopting these goals and strategies within their professional societies and conferences.

Antibodies Against Chlamydia trachomatis and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Two Independent Populations

BACKGROUND

Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) has been associated with ovarian cancer risk. To clarify the role of Chlamydia trachomatis and other infectious agents in the development of ovarian cancer, we evaluated the association of serologic markers with incident ovarian cancer using a staged approach in two independent populations.

METHODS

Studies included: 1) a case-control study in Poland (244 ovarian cancers/556 control subjects) and 2) a prospective nested case-control study in the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial (160 ovarian cancers/159 control subjects). Associations of serologic marker levels with ovarian cancer risk at diagnostic as well as higher thresholds, identified in Poland and independently evaluated in PLCO, were estimated using multivariable adjusted logistic regression.

RESULTS

In the Polish study, antibodies (based on laboratory cut-point) against the chlamydia plasmid-encoded Pgp3 protein (serological gold standard) were associated with increased ovarian cancer risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 to 2.22); when a positive result was redefined at higher levels, ovarian cancer risk was increased (cut-point 2: OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.38 to 2.89; cut-point 3 [max OR]: OR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.29 to 3.73). In the prospective PLCO study, Pgp3 antibodies were associated with elevated risk at the laboratory cut-point (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.78 to 2.63) and more stringent cut-points (cut-point 2: OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.71); cut-point 3: OR = 2.53, 95% CI = 0.63 to 10.08). In both studies, antibodies against other infectious agents measured were not associated with risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In two independent populations, antibodies against prior/current C. trachomatis (Pgp3) were associated with a doubling in ovarian cancer risk, whereas markers of other infectious agents were unrelated. These findings lend support for an association between PID and ovarian cancer.

Circulating estrogens and postmenopausal ovarian and endometrial cancer risk among current hormone users in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

PURPOSE

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use induces alterations in circulating estrogens/estrogen metabolites, which may contribute to the altered risk of reproductive tract cancers among current users. Thus, the current study assessed associations between circulating estrogens/estrogen metabolites and ovarian and endometrial cancer risk among MHT users.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study among postmenopausal women using MHT at baseline in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (179 ovarian cancers, 396 controls; 230 endometrial cancers, 253 controls). Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals overall and by subtype.

RESULTS

Estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels were not associated with overall or serous ovarian cancer risk, examined separately. However, unconjugated estradiol was positively associated with non-serous ovarian cancer risk [quintile 5 vs. quintile 1: 3.01 (1.17-7.73); p-trend = 0.03; p-het < 0.01]. Endometrial cancer risk was unrelated to estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels among women who took combined estrogen/progestin therapy (EPT).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide novel evidence that may support a heterogeneous hormonal etiology across ovarian cancer subtypes. Circulating estrogens did not influence endometrial cancer risk among women with EPT-induced high-estrogen levels. Larger studies are needed to delineate the relationship between ovarian/endometrial cancer subtypes and estrogen levels in the context of MHT use.

Reported Incidence and Survival of Fallopian Tube Carcinomas: A Population-Based Analysis From the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries

Background

Recognition that serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma (STIC) may represent the first manifestation of many high-grade cancers that were once considered ovarian primary tumors has led to changes in diagnostic practices that could dramatically increase the reporting of tubal carcinomas in US population-based cancer registries. Further, increased detection of early-stage tubal carcinomas through increased recognition coupled with meticulous pathology processing protocols raises important unanswered questions about the clinical behavior of such lesions, which can only be answered using large data sets. However, rates of tubal carcinomas have not been recently analyzed. Accordingly, we analyzed population-based incidence and survival data for fallopian tube carcinoma in situ (CIS; an imperfect surrogate of STIC), tubal carcinomas, and for comparison, ovarian carcinomas, in the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) registries.

Methods

Total counts, standardized incidence rates, and stage-specific survival were computed using 30 NAACCR registries (1999-2012). Temporal incidence rate patterns were analyzed by joinpoint regression with estimates of annual percentage change (APC). All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

Fallopian tube CIS incidence rates were stable from 1999 to 2002, then increased from 2002 to 2012 (APC = 16.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.9% to 21.7%, P < .001). Rates of early- and late-stage tubal carcinomas showed similar patterns, whereas high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma rates were relatively stable. Five-year cause-specific survival was 97.9% (95% CI = 93.7% to 99.3%) for tubal CIS and 83.2% (95% CI = 77.3% to 87.7%) for early-stage high-grade serous tubal carcinoma.

Conclusions

Reporting of tubal CIS and tubal carcinoma have increased in recent years, likely reflecting changes in pathology processing of specimens and diagnosis. Developing standardized reporting for tubal neoplasms is needed to enable analysis of outcomes for these comparatively uncommon but increasingly recognized tumors.

Comparability of serum, plasma, and urinary estrogen and estrogen metabolite measurements by sex and menopausal status

PURPOSE

The comparability between serum, plasma, and urinary measurements of estrogen metabolites via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has not been largely explored, and it is unclear if urinary LC-MS/MS measurements are suitable surrogates of circulating levels.

METHODS

Serum, plasma (EDTA and heparin), and urinary estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels were measured via LC-MS/MS in paired samples from 64 healthy volunteers (18 men, 20 premenopausal women, 26 postmenopausal women). Geometric means and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to compare individual and combined pathway levels of estrogens/estrogen metabolites across biologic matrices by sex/menopausal status.

RESULTS

Measured concentrations of estrogens/estrogen metabolites across blood matrices were almost identical (percent differences < 4.8%). Parent estrogen concentrations measured in serum and urine were moderately correlated in postmenopausal women (estrone: r = 0.69, estradiol: r = 0.69). Correlations were similar comparing unconjugated serum estradiol to urinary estrone (r = 0.76) and urinary estradiol (r = 0.65) in postmenopausal women but were moderate to low in premenopausal women (r = 0.60, 0.40, respectively)/men (r = 0.33, 0.53, respectively). Comparing metabolite ratios, proportionally higher concentrations of 16-pathway metabolites were measured in urine versus serum across sex/menopausal status groups (e.g., postmenopausal women: 50.3% 16-pathway metabolites/total in urine versus 35.3% in serum).

CONCLUSIONS

There is strong agreement between estrogen/estrogen metabolites measurements in serum, heparin plasma, and EDTA plasma. Individual estrogen metabolite concentrations were moderately correlated between urine and serum, but were not well correlated when evaluating pathway- or relative estrogen concentrations. Differences between serum and urine are likely explained by differences in metabolism and/or excretion.

Estrogen metabolism in menopausal hormone users in the women's health initiative observational study: Does it differ between estrogen plus progestin and estrogen alone?

The WHI found an unexpected reduced breast cancer risk in women using CEE alone. We hypothesized CEE alone induces estrogen hydroxylation along the 2-pathway rather than the competing 16-pathway, a pattern linked to reduced postmenopausal breast cancer risk. One thousand eight hundred and sixty-four women in a WHIOS case-control study of estrogen metabolism and ovarian and endometrial cancer were studied of whom 609 were current E + P users (351 used CEE + MPA), while 272 used E alone (162 used CEE). Fifteen EM were measured, and analyses were conducted for each metabolite, hydroxylation pathway (2-, 4-, or 16-pathway) and ratios of pathway concentrations using inverse probability weighted linear regression. Compared to E + P users, all EM were higher in E alone users (significant for unconjugated estrone, total/conjugated estradiol, total/unconjugated 2-methoxyestrone, 4-methoxyestrone and unconjugated estriol). The relative concentrations of 2- and 4-pathway EM did not differ between the MHT users (2-pathway EM comprised 15% and 4-pathway EM <2% of the total), but 16-pathway EM were lower in E alone users (p = 0.036). Ratios of 2- and 4-pathway EM compared to 16-pathway EM were significantly higher in E alone compared to E + P users. Similar but not significant patterns were observed in CEE-alone and CEE + MPA users. Our data suggest that compared to E + P users, women using E alone have more extensive metabolism via the 2- vs. the competing 16-pathway. This is consistent with epidemiologic evidence of reduced postmenopausal breast cancer risk associated with this metabolic profile and may provide a clue to the breast cancer risk reduction in CEE alone users during the WHI.

Selection and Application of Tissue microRNAs for Nonendoscopic Diagnosis of Barrett's Esophagus

BACKGROUND & AIMS

MicroRNA (miRNA) is highly stable in biospecimens and provides tissue-specific profiles, making it a useful biomarker of carcinogenesis. We aimed to discover a set of miRNAs that could accurately discriminate Barrett's esophagus (BE) from normal esophageal tissue and to test its diagnostic accuracy when applied to samples collected by a noninvasive esophageal cell sampling device.

METHODS

We analyzed miRNA expression profiles of 2 independent sets of esophageal biopsy tissues collected during endoscopy from 38 patients with BE and 26 patients with normal esophagus (controls) using Agilent microarray and Nanostring nCounter assays. Consistently up-regulated miRNAs were quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction in esophageal tissues collected by Cytosponge from patients with BE vs without BE. miRNAs were expressed from plasmids and antisense oligonucleotides were expressed in normal esophageal squamous cells; effects on proliferation and gene expression patterns were analyzed.

RESULTS

We identified 15 miRNAs that were significantly up-regulated in BE vs control tissues. Of these, 11 (MIR215, MIR194, MIR 192, MIR196a, MIR199b, MIR10a, MIR145, MIR181a, MIR30a, MIR7, and MIR199a) were validated in Cytosponge samples. The miRNAs with the greatest increases in BE tissues (7.9-fold increase in expression or more, P < .0001: MIR196a, MIR192, MIR194, and MIR215) each identified BE vs control tissues with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.82 or more. We developed an optimized multivariable logistic regression model, based on expression levels of 6 miRNAs (MIR7, MIR30a, MIR181a, MIR192, MIR196a, and MIR199a), that identified patients with BE with an AUC value of 0.89, 86.2% sensitivity, and 91.6% specificity. Expression level of MIR192, MIR196a, MIR199a, combined that of trefoil factor 3, identified patients with BE with an AUC of 0.93, 93.1% sensitivity, and 93.7% specificity. Hypomethylation was observed in the promoter region of the highly up-regulated cluster MIR192-MIR194. Overexpression of these miRNAs in normal esophageal squamous cells increased their proliferation, via GRHL3 and PTEN signaling.

CONCLUSIONS

In analyses of miRNA expression patterns of BE vs non-BE tissues, we identified a profile that can identify Cytosponge samples from patients with BE with an AUC of 0.93. Expression of MIR194 is increased in BE samples via epigenetic mechanisms that might be involved in BE pathogenesis.

Abstract 4942: Serologic markers of infectious agents and ovarian cancer: Markers of prior Chlamydia trachomatis infection associated with increased ovarian cancer risk in two independent populations

Background: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) has been associated with ovarian cancer and Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) is the leading cause of PID in the developed world. Primary infection with chlamydia is often asymptomatic and may persist for several months/years, thus ascertainment of PID in epidemiologic studies is challenging due to pervasive misclassification and under-reporting. To improve our understanding of the role of chlamydia and other infectious agents in developing ovarian cancer, we evaluated serologic markers of infection with incident ovarian cancer using a staged approach in two independent populations.

Methods: Studies included: 1) a case-control study conducted in Poland of 278 ovarian cancer cases diagnosed from 2000 to 2003 and age- and study site-matched controls (n=556) and 2) a nested case-control study from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial including 160 women who eventually developed ovarian cancer and 159 matched controls. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between serologic marker titers and ovarian cancer risk using logistic regression adjusted for matching factors and potential confounders. We evaluated laboratory cutpoints indicative of prior chlamydia infection and tested more stringent marker thresholds, identified in Poland and applied in PLCO, that could be relevant for a PID-like infection.

Results: In the Polish study, positivity for the chlamydia plasmid-encoded Pgp3 protein was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk [OR (95% CI): 1.63 (1.20-2.22)]; when a positive result was redefined at a higher titer, ovarian cancer risk increased [cutpoint 2: 2.00 (1.38-2.89); cutpoint 3 (max OR): 2.19 (1.29-3.73)]. All other chlamydia markers measured were associated with increased risk at the more stringent positivity threshold in Poland. In the prospective PLCO study, Pgp3 was associated with elevated risk at the laboratory cutpoint [1.43 (0.78-2.63)]; using higher thresholds, Pgp3 was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk [cutpoint 2: 2.25 (1.07-4.71); cutpoint 3: 2.53 (0.63-10.08)]. In both studies, markers of other infections (i.e., Mycoplasma genitalium, herpes simplex virus-2, human papillomavirus, herpes simplex virus-1, polyomavirus, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, Epstein Barr virus, cytomegalovirus) measured were not associated with risk.

Conclusions: In two independent populations, the gold standard serologic marker of prior/current chlamydia infection (Pgp3) was associated with a doubling in ovarian cancer risk, whereas markers of other infectious agents were unrelated. Although these findings need to be replicated, they suggest potential ovarian cancer risk reduction through targeted treatment of chlamydia infections.

Citation Format: Britton Trabert, Tim Waterboer, Sally B. Coburn, Louise A. Brinton, Mark E. Sherman, Jolanta Lissowska, Beata Peplonska, Patricia Hartge, Michael Pawlita, Nicolas Wentzensen. Serologic markers of infectious agents and ovarian cancer: Markers of prior Chlamydia trachomatis infection associated with increased ovarian cancer risk in two independent populations [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4942.

Associations between circulating sex steroid hormones and leukocyte telomere length in men in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Preliminary evidence suggests that sex steroid hormones, such as danazol (a synthetic sex steroid hormone), may be involved in enhancing telomerase activity. Elucidating underlying mechanisms of telomerase activity may further therapeutic options for individuals with telomeropathies and potentially avert certain age-related conditions. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the relationship between circulating sex steroid hormones and SHBG with leukocyte telomere length among 499 males in NHANES (1999-2002 surveys). Sample-weighted linear regression analyses were conducted to assess age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted estimates of associations. Estimates were rescaled to represent telomere length change in base pairs per half the value of the interquartile range of the independent variable. Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly inversely associated with leukocyte telomere length (β_{continuous per §IQR}  = -61, p = 0.04; free estradiol β_{continuous per §IQR}  = -67, p = 0.03). Testosterone, free testosterone, androstanediol glucuronide, and SHBG were not associated with leukocyte telomere length. The inverse association seen in this study indicates that a danazol-induced hypoestrogenic state could partly underlie the previously observed association between danazol therapy and increased leukocyte telomere length.

Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort

OBJECTIVE

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA.

DESIGN

Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks.

RESULTS

There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest.

TMPRSS2:ERG Gene Fusions in Prostate Cancer of West African Men and a Meta-Analysis of Racial Differences

The prevalence of fusions of the transmembrane protease, serine 2, gene (TMPRSS2) with the erythroblast transformation-specific-related gene (ERG), or TMPRSS2:ERG, in prostate cancer varies by race. However, such somatic aberration and its association with prognostic factors have neither been studied in a West African population nor been systematically reviewed in the context of racial differences. We used immunohistochemistry to assess oncoprotein encoded by the ERG gene as the established surrogate of ERG fusion genes among 262 prostate cancer biopsies from the Ghana Prostate Study (2004-2006). Poisson regression with robust variance estimation provided prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals of ERG expression in relation to patient characteristics. We found that 47 of 262 (18%) prostate cancers were ERG-positive, and being negative for ERG staining was associated with higher Gleason score. We further conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in relation to race, Gleason score, and tumor stage, combining results from Ghana with 40 additional studies. Meta-analysis showed the prevalence of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in prostate cancer to be highest in men of European descent (49%), followed by men of Asian (27%) and then African (25%) descent. The lower prevalence of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in men of African descent implies that alternative genomic mechanisms might explain the disproportionately high prostate cancer burden in such populations.

Alcohol and oestrogen metabolites in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

Background:

Alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of several cancers. Potential mechanisms include altered oestrogen metabolism. Parent oestrogens metabolise into alternate pathways of oestrogen metabolites that may have variable effects on cancer pathogenesis. We examined associations of alcohol consumption with circulating oestrogen/oestrogen metabolites in postmenopausal women in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS).

Methods:

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of prediagnosis ovarian/endometrial cancer case-control data within WHI-OS (N=1864). Alcohol consumption was measured by validated food frequency questionnaire. Fasting serum parent oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites were assayed using liquid chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry. Geometric mean analyte concentrations (GM, pmol l⁻¹) were calculated by alcohol category using inverse-probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for venepuncture age/year, race, smoking, body mass index, years since menopause, oral contraceptive duration, caffeine intake, and physical activity.

Results:

There was evidence for a positive association between alcohol consumption and oestrone, oestradiol and 2-hydroxylation oestrogen metabolite concentrations among menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) users. We observed an association between liquor consumption and parent oestrogens among non-MHT users, who consumed larger doses of liquor than MHT users.

Conclusions:

Among postmenopausal women, the association between alcohol intake and parent oestrogen, but not oestrogen metabolite concentrations, may be influenced by MHT and type of alcohol.

Sitting, physical activity, and serum oestrogen metabolism in postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Prolonged sitting and lower levels of physical activity have been associated with increased levels of parent oestrogens (oestrone and oestradiol), the key hormones in female cancers, in postmenopausal women. However, it is unknown whether sitting and physical activity are associated with circulating oestrogen metabolite levels.

METHODS

Among 1804 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, 15 serum oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites were quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Physical activity and sitting were self-reported via questionnaire. Using baseline, cross-sectional data, geometric means (GM) of oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites (pmol l^-1) were estimated using inverse probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders and stratified on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use.

RESULTS

Longer time spent sitting (⩾10 vs ⩽5h per day) was associated with higher levels of unconjugated oestrone, independent of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity and body mass index, among both never/former (GM=70.6 vs 57.7) and current MHT users (GM=242 vs 179) (P-trend ⩽0.03). Among never/former MHT users, sitting (⩾10 vs ⩽5h per day) was positively associated with 2-methoxyestradiol (GM=16.4 vs 14.4) and 4-methoxyestradiol (GM=2.36 vs 1.98) (P-trend ⩽0.04), independent of parent oestrogens. Inverse associations between moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (⩾15 vs 0 metabolic equivalent task-hours per week) and parent oestrogens were found as expected. After adjustment for parent oestrogens, physical activity was not associated with oestrogen metabolites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that prolonged sitting and lower moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity are associated with higher levels of postmenopausal oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites, the oestrogen metabolism patterns that have previously been associated with higher endometrial and breast cancer risk.

Abstract 260: Incidence rates and outcomes of fallopian tube carcinomas: Data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries

Background: Serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma (STIC) is hypothesized to give rise to many cancers that have been historically classified as ovarian primaries. Although STIC is gaining status as a diagnostic entity, similar appearing lesions would likely have been reported as fallopian tubal carcinoma in-situ (FT-CIS) in the past. Accordingly to characterize patterns of reporting and behavior for tubal cancers, we analyzed population-based data for incidence rate trends, co-occurrence with cancer at other sites and survival of FT-CIS and invasive fallopian tube carcinoma (FT-Inv).

Methods: We analyzed data for FT-CIS and FT-Inv included within 33 registries using the Cancer Incidence in North America Deluxe Analytical Files provided by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (1995-2012). Primary site of invasive carcinomas were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (3rd edition) topography codes (ovarian (C56.9), fallopian tube (C57.0), and primary peritoneal cancers (C48.1-.2, 48.8)). We excluded cancers with non-epithelial histology. Total counts, incidence rates per 1 million adjusted to the 2000 standard US population and age-standardized stage-specific survival were computed. Temporal incidence rate patterns were analyzed by joinpoint regression with estimates of annual percentage change (APC).

Results: Cases in which the first cancer diagnosis was FT-CIS, included 98 FT-CIS alone; 27 FT-CIS followed by another cancer diagnosis within 1 year and 172 cases in which FT-CIS was diagnosed concurrently with another cancer as compared with 5513 invasive tubal carcinomas over the same period. The incidence rate of FT-CIS was stable from 1995-2002, then significantly increased from 2002-2012 [APC (95% CI) = 16.2% (10.9-21.7)]. Rates of early stage high-grade serous FT-Inv increased significantly from 2002-2012 [10.4% (6.1-14.9)] and rates of late stage high-grade serous FT-Inv rose sharply from 2002-2012 [20.0% (17.5-22.6)]. Five-year age-standardized survival for women with FT-CIS only was 75.6% overall, reflecting 89.1% survival for women less than 50 years and 70.9% for women 50 years or older; survival for high-grade early stage serous FT-Inv was 77.8%.

Conclusions: Diagnoses of FT-CIS and FT-Inv have increased dramatically, likely reflecting changes in diagnostic pathology practice. Developing standardized reporting for FT-CIS (and in the future, STIC) when present with concurrent invasive cancer are needed, given that this occurs often. Based on limited data, 5-year survival for FT-CIS and early stage FT-Inv are similar, but future studies to evaluate data for STIC will be required, which will likely be achievable only through national registries that are large enough to capture sufficient cases.

Citation Format: Mark E. Sherman, Sally B. Coburn, Hannah Yang, William Anderson, Philip Rosenberg, Gretchen Gierach, Nicolas Wentzensen, Kathy Cronin, Britton Trabert. Incidence rates and outcomes of fallopian tube carcinomas: Data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 260. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-260

Abstract 4237: Estrogen metabolism in menopausal hormone users: Does it differ between estrogen plus progestin and estrogen alone users in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

Background: The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) provided divergent results regarding the effects of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) on breast cancer risk, with women in the conjugated equine estrogen plus medroxyprogesterone (CEE+MPA) arm at elevated risk, and women in the CEE alone arm at reduced risk. Although direct progestin-mediated effects may largely explain the elevated risk, we hypothesize that in addition, these MHT treatments may differentially influence patterns of estrogen metabolism, with CEE alone preferentially inducing metabolism along the 2-hydroxylation pathway, a pattern previously linked to reduced breast cancer risk.

Study methods/population: Women in a case-control study of estrogen metabolites (EM) and ovarian and endometrial cancer from the WHI Observational Study were identified for this analysis. Unlike the WHI trial, no medication restrictions were applied. At enrollment, serum, anthropometric measures, and self-administered questionnaires which ascertained reproductive history, lifestyle factors and health behaviors including MHT use, were obtained. 615 women reported current use of estrogen plus progestin formulations (E+P), of whom 343 used CEE+MPA; 266 used estrogens alone (E alone), with 148 using CEE. Fifteen EM were measured by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry and analyses were conducted separately for each EM. EM differences between E alone and E+P users were assessed using inverse probability weighted linear regression. Primary analyses included women using any MHT formulation; secondary analyses were restricted to CEE users.

Results: Compared to users of E+P, concentrations of all EM were higher in E alone users, and significantly so for unconjugated estrone, estradiol, 2-methoxyestrone, 4-methoxyestrone and unconjugated estriol. Relative to total EM, concentrations of 2- and 4-pathway EM did not differ by MHT group (for E alone and E+P users, 2-pathway EM were ~14% of the total EM; 4-pathway EM were &lt;2% of the total), but E+P users had a significantly higher proportion of 16-pathway EM compared to E alone users (32% vs. 30%, p=0.025). Similar patterns were observed in analyses comparing users of CEE alone to CEE+MPA, albeit not significant.

Conclusion: Our data suggest that women using E alone may preferentially metabolize estrogens along the 2- and 4-hydroxylation pathways, whereas in E+P users, more extensive metabolism occurs along the 16-pathway. However, we did not observe these effects in the smaller groups of women using CEE alone or CEE+MPA, the MHT formulations administered in the treatment arms of the WHI trial. Our findings in E alone users are consistent with epidemiologic investigations demonstrating reduced breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women with more extensive 2-pathway estrogen metabolism, and may provide a clue to the breast cancer risk reduction observed in these women.

Citation Format: Roni T. Falk, Garnet L. Anderson, Vanessa M. Barnabei, Louise A. Brinton, Jane A. Cauley, Chu Chen, Rowan T. Chlebowski, Sally B. Coburn, JoAnn E. Manson, Ruth M. Pfeiffer, Kerryn W. Reding, Thomas E. Rohan, Gloria E. Sarto, Nicolas Wentzensen, Britton Trabert. Estrogen metabolism in menopausal hormone users: Does it differ between estrogen plus progestin and estrogen alone users in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4237. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-4237

International patterns and trends in ovarian cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype

Internationally, ovarian cancer is the 7th leading cancer diagnosis and 8th leading cause of cancer mortality among women. Ovarian cancer incidence varies by region, particularly when comparing high vs. low-income countries. Temporal changes in reproductive factors coupled with shifts in diagnostic criteria may have influenced incidence trends of ovarian cancer and relative rates by histologic subtype. Accordingly, we evaluated trends in ovarian cancer incidence overall (1973-1977 to 2003-2007) and by histologic subtype (1988-1992 to 2003-2007) using volumes IV-IX of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (CI5plus) and CI5X (volume X) database. Annual percent changes were calculated for ovarian cancer incidence trends, and rates of histologic subtypes for individual countries were compared to overall international incidence. Ovarian cancer incidence rates were stable across regions, although there were notable increases in Eastern/Southern Europe (e.g., Poland: Annual Percent Change (APC) 1.6%, p = 0.02) and Asia (e.g., Japan: APC 1.7%, p = 0.01) and decreases in Northern Europe (e.g., Denmark: APC -0.7%, p = 0.01) and North America (e.g., US Whites: APC -0.9%, p < 0.01). Relative proportions of histologic subtypes were similar across countries, except for Asian nations, where clear cell and endometrioid carcinomas comprised a higher proportion of the rate and serous carcinomas comprised a lower proportion of the rate than the worldwide distribution. Geographic variation in temporal trends of ovarian cancer incidence and differences in the distribution of histologic subtype may be partially explained by reproductive and genetic factors. Thus, histology-specific ovarian cancer should continue to be monitored to further understand the etiology of this neoplasm.

Anthropometric measures and serum estrogen metabolism in postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Several anthropometric measures have been associated with hormone-related cancers. However, it is unknown whether estrogen metabolism plays an important role in these relationships. We examined whether measured current body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), height, and self-reported BMI at age 18 years were associated with serum estrogens/estrogen metabolites using baseline, cross-sectional data from 1835 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

METHODS

Fifteen estrogens/estrogen metabolites were quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric means (GMs) of estrogens/estrogen metabolites (in picomoles per liter) were estimated using inverse probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders and stratified on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use.

RESULTS

Among never or former MHT users, current BMI (≥30 vs. <25 kg/m²) was positively associated with parent estrogens (multivariable adjusted GM 432 vs. 239 pmol/L for estrone, 74 vs. 46 pmol/L for estradiol; p-trend < 0.001 for both) and all of the 2-, 4-, and 16-pathway estrogen metabolites evaluated (all p-trend ≤ 0.02). After additional adjustment for estradiol, unconjugated methylated 2-catechols were inversely associated (e.g., 2-methoxyestrone multivariable GM 9.3 vs. 12.0 pmol/L; p-trend < 0.001). Among current MHT users, current BMI was not associated with parent estrogens but was inversely associated with methylated catechols (e.g., 2-methoxyestrone multivariable GM 216 vs. 280 pmol/L; p-trend = 0.008). Similar patterns of association were found with WHR; however, the associations were not independent of BMI. Height and BMI at age 18 years were not associated with postmenopausal estrogens/estrogen metabolite levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that postmenopausal BMI is associated with increased circulating levels of parent estrogens and reduced methylation of catechol estrogen metabolites, the estrogen metabolism patterns that have previously been associated with higher breast cancer risk.