Invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ from 1990 to 2018 in England: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death related to breast cancer after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Risks for women in the general population and for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ via the screening programme were compared.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

Data from the National Disease Registration Service.

PARTICIPANTS

All 27 543 women in England who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, outside the NHS breast screening programme, during 1990 to 2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident invasive breast cancer and death caused by breast cancer.

RESULTS

By 31 December 2018, 3651 women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had developed invasive breast cancer, more than four times higher than expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed to expected rate was 4.21 (95% conference interval 4.07 to 4.35)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of developing invasive breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up among women aged <45-70 years. The 25 year cumulative risks of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ were 27.3% for <45 years, 25.2% for 45-49 years, 21.7% for 50-59 years, and 20.8% for 60-70 years. 908 women died of breast cancer, almost four times higher than that expected from breast cancer death rates in the general population (ratio of observed to expected rate 3.83 (3.59 to 4.09)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of mortality attributed to breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up. The 25 year cumulative risks of breast cancer death by age at ductal carcinoma in situ diagnosis were 7.6% for <45 years, 5.8% for 45-49 years, 5.9% for 50-59 years, and 6.2% for 60-70 years. Among women aged 50-64 years, and therefore eligible for breast screening by the NHS, the ratio of observed to expected rate of invasive breast cancer in women with non-screen detected compared with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ was 1.26 (95% conference interval 1.17 to 1.35), while the ratio for mortality from breast cancer was 1.37 (1.17 to 1.60). Among 22 753 women with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ undergoing surgery, those who had mastectomy rather than breast conserving surgery had a lower 25 year cumulative rate of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (mastectomy 8.2% (95% conference interval 7.0% to 9.4%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 19.8% (16.2% to 23.4%), and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 20.6% (18.7% to 22.4%)). However, reductions did not translate into a lower 25 year cumulative rate of deaths attributable to breast cancer (mastectomy 6.5% (4.9% to 10.9%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 8.6% (5.9% to 15.5%), breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 7.8% (6.3% to 11.5%)).

CONCLUSIONS

For at least 25 years after their diagnosis, women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death than women in the general population. Additionally, they had higher long term risks than women with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Mastectomy was associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer than breast conserving surgery, even when accompanied by radiotherapy. However, risks of breast cancer death appeared similar for mastectomy, breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy, and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded.

Proton Beam Therapy for Early Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Clinical Outcomes

PURPOSE

Adjuvant proton beam therapy (PBT) is increasingly available to patients with breast cancer. It achieves better planned dose distributions than standard photon radiation therapy and therefore may reduce the risks. However, clinical evidence is lacking.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A systematic review of clinical outcomes from studies of adjuvant PBT for early breast cancer published in 2000 to 2022 was undertaken. Early breast cancer was defined as when all detected invasive cancer cells are in the breast or nearby lymph nodes and can be removed surgically. Adverse outcomes were summarized quantitatively, and the prevalence of the most common ones were estimated using meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies (1452 patients) reported clinical outcomes after adjuvant PBT for early breast cancer. Median follow-up ranged from 2 to 59 months. There were no published randomized trials comparing PBT with photon radiation therapy. Scattering PBT was delivered in 7 studies (258 patients) starting 2003 to 2015 and scanning PBT in 22 studies (1041 patients) starting 2000 to 2019. Two studies (123 patients) starting 2011 used both PBT types. For 1 study (30 patients), PBT type was unspecified. Adverse events were less severe after scanning than after scattering PBT. They also varied by clinical target. For partial breast PBT, 498 adverse events were reported (8 studies, 358 patients). None were categorized as severe after scanning PBT. For whole breast or chest wall ± regional lymph nodes PBT, 1344 adverse events were reported (19 studies, 933 patients). After scanning PBT, 4% (44/1026) of events were severe. The most prevalent severe outcome after scanning PBT was dermatitis, which occurred in 5.7% (95% confidence interval, 4.2-7.6) of patients. Other severe adverse outcomes included infection, pain, and pneumonitis (each ≤1%). Of the 141 reconstruction events reported (13 studies, 459 patients), the most prevalent after scanning PBT was prosthetic implant removal (34/181, 19%).

CONCLUSIONS

This is a quantitative summary of all published clinical outcomes after adjuvant PBT for early breast cancer. Ongoing randomized trials will provide information on its longer-term safety compared with standard photon radiation therapy.

Cardiovascular disease incidence rates: a study using routinely collected health data

BACKGROUND

There is substantial evidence that systemic anticancer therapies and radiotherapy can increase the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Optimal management decisions for cancer patients therefore need to take into account the likely risks from a proposed treatment option, as well as its likely benefits. For CVD, the magnitude of the risk depends on the incidence of the disease in the general population to which the patient belongs, including variation with age and sex, as well as on the treatment option under consideration. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of CVD incidence rates in the general population of England for use in cardio-oncology and in other relevant clinical, research and health policy contexts.

METHODS

We studied a population-based representative cohort, consisting of 2,633,472 individuals, derived by electronic linkage of records from primary care with those of admitted-patient care in England during April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2015. From 38 individual CVDs available via the linked dataset we identified five relevant categories of CVD whose risk may be increased by cancer treatments: four of heart disease and one of stroke.

RESULTS

We calculated incidence rates by age-group and sex for all relevant CVD categories combined, for the four relevant categories of heart disease combined, and for the five relevant CVD categories separately. We present separate incidence rates for all 38 individual CVDs available via the linked dataset. We also illustrate how our data can be used to estimate absolute CVD risks in a range of people with Hodgkin lymphoma treated with chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide population-based CVD incidence rates for a variety of uses, including the estimation of absolute risks of CVD from cancer treatments, thus helping patients and clinicians to make appropriate individualized cancer treatment decisions. Graphical Abstract: Cardiovascular incidence rates for use in cardio-oncology and elsewhere: A presentation of age- and sex-specific cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence rates for use in calculation of absolute cardiovascular risks of cancer treatments, and in other clinical, research and health policy contexts. Abbreviations - CVD: cardiovascular disease; y: years.

Ki67 and breast cancer mortality in women with invasive breast cancer

BACKGROUND

The percentage of cells staining positive for Ki67 is sometimes used for decision-making in patients with early invasive breast cancer (IBC). However, there is uncertainty regarding the most appropriate Ki67 cut points and the influence of interlaboratory measurement variability. We examined the relationship between breast cancer mortality and Ki67 both before and after accounting for interlaboratory variability and 8 patient and tumor characteristics.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort study of women with early IBC diagnosed during 2009-2016 in more than 20 NHS hospitals in England and followed until December 31, 2020.

RESULTS

Ki67 was strongly prognostic of breast cancer mortality in 8212 women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early IBC (Ptrend < .001). This relationship remained strong after adjustment for patient and tumor characteristics (Ptrend < .001). Standardization for interlaboratory variability did little to alter these results. For women with Ki67 scores of 0%-5%, 6%-10%, 11%-19%, and 20%-29% the corresponding 8-year adjusted cumulative breast cancer mortality risks were 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8% to 4.0%), 3.7% (95% CI = 3.0% to 4.4%), 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), and 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), whereas for women with Ki67 scores of 30%-39% and 40%-100%, these risks were higher, at 5.1% (95% CI = 4.3% to 6.2%) and 7.7% (95% CI = 6.6% to 9.1) (Ptrend < .001). Similar results were obtained when the adjusted analysis was repeated with omission of pathological information about tumor size and nodal involvement, which would not be available preoperatively for patients being considered for neoadjuvant therapy.

CONCLUSION

Our findings confirm the prognostic value of Ki67 scores of 30% or more in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative early IBC, irrespective of interlaboratory variability. These results also suggest that Ki67 may be useful to aid decision-making in the neoadjuvant setting.

Breast cancer mortality in 500 000 women with early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in England, 1993-2015: population based observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe long term breast cancer mortality among women with a diagnosis of breast cancer in the past and estimate absolute breast cancer mortality risks for groups of patients with a recent diagnosis.

DESIGN

Population based observational cohort study.

SETTING

Routinely collected data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.

PARTICIPANTS

All 512 447 women registered with early invasive breast cancer (involving only breast and possibly axillary nodes) in England during January 1993 to December 2015, with follow-up to December 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual breast cancer mortality rates and cumulative risks by time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and nine characteristics of patients and tumours.

RESULTS

For women with a diagnosis made within each of the calendar periods 1993-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15, the crude annual breast cancer mortality rate was highest during the five years after diagnosis and then declined. For any given time since diagnosis, crude annual breast cancer mortality rates and risks decreased with increasing calendar period. Crude five year breast cancer mortality risk was 14.4% (95% confidence interval 14.2% to 14.6%) for women with a diagnosis made during 1993-99 and 4.9% (4.8% to 5.0%) for women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15. Adjusted annual breast cancer mortality rates also decreased with increasing calendar period in nearly every patient group, by a factor of about three in oestrogen receptor positive disease and about two in oestrogen receptor negative disease. Considering just the women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15, cumulative five year breast cancer mortality risk varied substantially between women with different characteristics: it was <3% for 62.8% (96 085/153 006) of women but ≥20% for 4.6% (6962/153 006) of women.

CONCLUSIONS

These five year breast cancer mortality risks for patients with a recent diagnosis may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today. The prognosis for women with early invasive breast cancer has improved substantially since the 1990s. Most can expect to become long term cancer survivors, although for a few the risk remains appreciable.

Temporal trends in the incidence of malignant and nonmalignant primary brain and central nervous system tumors by the method of diagnosis in England, 1993-2017

BACKGROUND

Several studies report increases in the incidences of primary central nervous system (CNS) tumors. The reasons for this are unclear.

METHODS

Data on all 188 340 individuals diagnosed with a primary CNS tumor in England (1993-2017) were obtained from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Data on all computerized tomography (CT) head and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain scans in England (2013-2017) were obtained from the National Health Service Digital. Age-sex-standardized annual incidence rates per 100 000 population (ASR) were calculated by calendar year, tumor behavior, tumor location, and method of diagnosis. Temporal trends were quantified using average annual percent change (AAPC).

RESULTS

The ASR for all CNS tumors increased from 13.0 in 1993 to 18.6 in 2017 (AAPC: +1.5%, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.7). The ASR for malignant tumors (52% overall) remained stable (AAPC: +0.5%, 95% CI: -0.2, 1.3), while benign tumors (37% overall) increased (AAPC: +2.6%, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.0). Among the 66% of benign tumors that were microscopically confirmed, the ASR increased modestly (AAPC: +1.3%, 95% CI: 0.5, 2.1). However, among the 25% of benign tumors that were radiographically confirmed, the ASR increased substantially (AAPC: 10.2%, 95% CI: 7.9, 12.5), principally driven by large increases in those who are aged 65+ years. The rate of CT head scans in Accident & Emergency (A&E) increased during 2013-2017, with especially large increases in 65-84 and 85+-year-olds (AAPCs: +18.4% and +22.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in CNS tumor incidence in England are largely attributable to the greater detection of benign tumors. This could be the result of the increasing use of neuroimaging, particularly CT head scans in A&E in people who are aged 65+ years.

Association of Radiation and Procarbazine Dose With Risk of Colorectal Cancer Among Survivors of Hodgkin Lymphoma

Importance

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors have higher rates of colorectal cancer, which may be associated with subdiaphragmatic radiation therapy and/or alkylating chemotherapy. Although radiation dose-response associations with breast, lung, stomach, pancreatic, and esophageal cancer after HL have been demonstrated, the association of radiation therapy with colorectal cancer remains unclear.

Objective

To quantify the rate of colorectal cancer according to radiation dose to the large bowel and procarbazine dose among HL survivors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A nested case-control study examined 5-year HL survivors at 5 hospital centers in the Netherlands. Participants had been diagnosed with HL in 1964 to 2000, when they were 15 to 50 years of age, and were followed for a median of approximately 26 years. Survivors of HL who developed colorectal cancer and survivors who were selected as controls were individually matched on sex, age at HL diagnosis, and date of HL diagnosis. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to October 2022.

Exposures

Mean radiation doses to the large bowel were estimated by reconstructing individual radiation therapy treatments on representative computed tomography data sets.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Excess rate ratios (ERRs) were modeled to evaluate the excess risk associated with each 1-gray increase in radiation dose, and potential effect modification by procarbazine was explored.

Results

The study population included 316 participants (mean [SD] age at HL diagnosis, 33.0 [9.8] years; 221 [69.9%] men), 78 of whom were HL survivors who developed colorectal cancer (cases) and 238 who did not (controls). The median (IQR) interval between HL and colorectal cancer was 25.7 (18.2-31.6) years. Increased colorectal cancer rates were seen for patients who received subdiaphragmatic radiation therapy (rate ratio [RR], 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1) and those who received more than 8.4 g/m2 procarbazine (RR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-5.0). Overall, colorectal cancer rate increased linearly with mean radiation dose to the whole large bowel and dose to the affected bowel segment. The association between radiation dose and colorectal cancer rate became stronger with increasing procarbazine dose: the ERR per gray to the whole bowel was 3.5% (95% CI, 0.4%-12.6%) for patients who did not receive procarbazine, and increased 1.2-fold (95% CI, 1.1-1.3) for each 1-g/m2 increase in procarbazine dose.

Conclusions and Relevance

This nested case-control study of 5-year HL survivors found a dose-response association between radiation therapy and colorectal cancer risk, and modification of this association by procarbazine. These findings may enable individualized colorectal cancer risk estimations, identification of high-risk survivors for subsequent screening, and optimization of treatment strategies.

Proton Therapy in Supradiaphragmatic Lymphoma: Predicting Treatment-Related Mortality to Help Optimize Patient Selection

PURPOSE

In some patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), proton beam therapy (PBT) may reduce the risk of radiation-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) and second cancers (SC) compared with photon radiation therapy (RT). Our aim was to identify patients who benefit the most from PBT in terms of predicted 30-year absolute mortality risks (AMR30) from CVD and SC, taking into account individual background, chemotherapy, radiation, and smoking-related risks.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Eighty patients with supradiaphragmatic HL treated with PBT between 2015 and 2019 were replanned using optimal photon RT. To identify patients predicted to derive the greatest benefit from PBT compared with photon RT, doses and AMR30 from CVD and SC of the lung, breast, and esophagus were compared for all patients and across patient subgroups.

RESULTS

For patients with mediastinal disease below the origin of the left main coronary artery (n = 66; 82%), PBT reduced the mean dose to the heart, left ventricle, and heart valves by 1.0, 2.7, and 3.6 Gy, respectively. Based on U.S. mortality rates, PBT reduced CVD AMR30 by 0.2%, from 5.9% to 5.7%. The benefit was larger if the mediastinal disease overlapped longitudinally with the heart by ≥40% (n = 23; 29%). PBT reduced the mean dose to the heart, left ventricle, and heart valves by 3.2, 5.6, and 5.1 Gy, respectively, and reduced CVD AMR30 by 0.8%, from 7.0% to 6.2%. For patients with axillary disease (n = 25; 31%), PBT reduced the mean lung dose by 2.8 Gy and lung cancer AMR30 by 0.6%, from 2.7% to 2.1%. Breast and esophageal doses were also lower with PBT, but the effects on AMR30 were negligible. The effect of smoking on CVD and lung cancer AMR30 was much larger than radiation and chemotherapy and the differences between radiation modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

The predicted benefit of PBT is not universal and limited to certain categories of patients with lymphoma and lower mediastinal or axillary disease. Smoking cessation should be strongly encouraged in smokers who require thoracic RT.

Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Disease Following Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in the UK NCRI RAPID Trial of Positron Emission Tomography-Directed Therapy for Early-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma

PURPOSE

The contemporary management of early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ES-HL) involves balancing the risk of late adverse effects of radiotherapy against the increased risk of relapse if radiotherapy is omitted. This study provides information on the risk of radiation-related cardiovascular disease to help personalize the delivery of radiotherapy in ES-HL.

METHODS

We predicted 30-year absolute cardiovascular risk from chemotherapy and involved field radiotherapy in patients who were positron emission tomography (PET)-negative following three cycles of doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine chemotherapy within a UK randomized trial of PET-directed therapy for ES-HL. Cardiac and carotid radiation doses and chemotherapy exposure were combined with established dose-response relationships and population-based mortality and incidence rates.

RESULTS

Average mean heart dose was 4.0 Gy (range 0.1-24.0 Gy) and average bilateral common carotid artery dose was 21.5 Gy (range 0.6-38.1 Gy), based on individualized cardiovascular dosimetry for 144 PET-negative patients receiving involved field radiotherapy. The average predicted 30-year radiation-related absolute excess overall cardiovascular mortality was 0.56% (range 0.01%-6.79%; < 0.5% in 67% of patients and > 1% in 15%), whereas average predicted 30-year excess incidence was 6.24% (range 0.31%-31.09%; < 5% in 58% of patients and > 10% in 24%). For cardiac disease, the average predicted 30-year radiation-related absolute excess mortality was 0.42% (0.79% with mediastinal involvement and 0.05% without) and for stroke, it was 0.14%.

CONCLUSION

Predicted excess cardiovascular risk is small for most patients, so radiotherapy may provide net benefit. However, for a minority of patients receiving high doses of radiation to cardiovascular structures, it may be preferable to consider advanced radiotherapy techniques to reduce doses or to omit radiotherapy and accept the increased relapse risk. Individual assessment of cardiovascular and other risks before treatment would allow personalized decision making about radiotherapy in ES-HL.

Exposure of the oesophagus in breast cancer radiotherapy: A systematic review of oesophagus doses published 2010-2020

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Breast cancer radiotherapy can increase the risk of subsequent primary oesophageal cancer, with risk increasing according to oesophagus radiation dose. We describe oesophagus exposure from modern breast cancer regimens and discuss the risks of oesophageal cancer for women irradiated recently.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken of oesophagus doses from breast cancer radiotherapy regimens published during 2010-2020. Mean and maximum oesophagus doses were described for different target regions irradiated and different radiotherapy techniques.

RESULTS

In 112 published regimens from 18 countries, oesophagus doses varied with target region. For partial breast irradiation, average mean oesophagus dose was 0.2 Gy (range 0.1-0.4) in four regimens; maximum dose was not reported. For breast or chest wall radiotherapy, average oesophagus doses were mean 1.8 Gy (range 0.1-10.4) in 24 regimens and maximum 6.7 Gy (range 0.4-14.3) in seven regimens. For radiotherapy including a nodal region, average oesophagus doses were higher: mean 11.4 Gy (range <0.1-29.3) in 61 regimens and maximum 34.4 Gy (range 3.4-51.3) in 55 regimens. Average mean oesophagus doses were >10 Gy for intensity modulated nodal radiotherapy, but lower for other node techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

Mean oesophagus doses from partial breast and breast/chest wall regimens were usually less than 2 Gy, hence radiation-risks will be very small. However, for radiotherapy including lymph nodes, average mean oesophagus dose of 11.4 Gy may nearly double oesophageal cancer risk. Consideration of oesophageal exposure during nodal radiotherapy planning may reduce the risks of radiation-related oesophageal cancer for women irradiated today.

Dose-response relationships for radiation-related heart disease: Impact of uncertainties in cardiac dose reconstruction

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Radiation-related heart disease (RRHD) can occur many decades after thoracic radiotherapy for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) or childhood cancer (CC). To quantify the likely risk of RRHD for patients treated today, dose-response relationships derived from patients treated in previous decades are used. Publications presenting these dose-response relationships usually include estimates of uncertainties in the risks but ignore the effect of uncertainties in the reconstructed cardiac doses.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We assessed the systematic and random uncertainties in the reconstructed doses for published dose-response relationships for RRHD risk in survivors of HL or CC. Using the same reconstruction methods as were used in the original publications, we reconstructed mean heart doses and, wherever possible, mean left-ventricular doses for an independent case-series of test patients. These patients had known, CT-based, cardiac doses which were compared with the reconstructed doses to estimate the magnitude of the uncertainties and their effect on the dose-response relationships.

RESULTS

For all five reconstruction methods the relationship between reconstructed and CT-based doses was linear. For all but the simplest reconstruction method, the dose uncertainties were moderate, the effect of the systematic uncertainty on the dose-response relationships was less than 10%, and the effects of random uncertainty were small except at the highest doses.

CONCLUSIONS

These results increase confidence in the published dose-response relationships for the risk of RRHD in HL and CC survivors. This may encourage doctors to use these dose-response relationships when estimating individualised risks for patients-an important aspect of personalising radiotherapy treatments today.

Cardiac mortality after radiotherapy, chemotherapy and endocrine therapy for breast cancer: Cohort study of 2 million women from 57 cancer registries in 22 countries

Comparisons of patients receiving different cancer treatments reflect the effects of both treatment and patient selection. In breast cancer, however, if radiotherapy decisions are unrelated to laterality, comparisons of left-sided and right-sided cancers can demonstrate the causal effects of higher-versus-lower cardiac radiation dose. Cardiac mortality was analysed using individual patient data for 1,934,248 women with breast cancer in 22 countries. The median date of diagnosis was 1996 and the interquartile range was 1987-2002. A total of 1,018,505 women were recorded as irradiated, 223,077 as receiving chemotherapy, 317,619 as receiving endocrine therapy and 55,264 died of cardiac disease. Analyses were stratified by time since breast cancer diagnosis, age at diagnosis, calendar year of diagnosis and country. Patient-selection effects were evident for all three treatments. For radiotherapy, there was also evidence of selection according to laterality in women irradiated 1990 or later. In patients irradiated before 1990, there was no such selection and cardiac mortality was higher in left-sided than right-sided cancer (rate ratio [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.17). Left-versus-right cardiac mortality RRs were greater among younger women (1.46, 1.19, 1.20, 1.09 and 1.08 after cancer diagnoses at ages <40, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70+ years, 2ptrend =0.003). Left-versus-right RRs also increased with time since cancer diagnosis (1.03, 1.11, 1.19 and 1.21 during 0-4, 5-14, 15-24 and 25+ years, 2ptrend =0.002) while for women who also received chemotherapy, the left-versus-right RR was 1.42 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.77), compared to 1.10 (1.05-1.16) for women who did not (2pdifference = 0.03). These results show that the relative increase in cardiac mortality from cardiac exposure during breast cancer radiotherapy given in the past was greater in younger women, lasted into the third decade after exposure and was greater when chemotherapy was also given.

Invasive breast cancer and breast cancer mortality after ductal carcinoma in situ in women attending for breast screening in England, 1988-2014: population based observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer after ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosed through breast screening.

DESIGN

Population based observational cohort study.

SETTING

Data from the NHS Breast Screening Programme and the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.

PARTICIPANTS

All 35 024 women in England diagnosed as having DCIS by the NHS Breast Screening Programme from its start in 1988 until March 2014.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer.

RESULTS

By December 2014, 13 606 women had been followed for up to five years, 10 998 for five to nine years, 6861 for 10-14 years, 2620 for 15-19 years, and 939 for at least 20 years. Among these women, 2076 developed invasive breast cancer, corresponding to an incidence rate of 8.82 (95% confidence interval 8.45 to 9.21) per 1000 women per year and more than double that expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed rate to expected rate 2.52, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 2.63). The increase started in the second year after diagnosis of DCIS and continued until the end of follow-up. In the same group of women, 310 died from breast cancer, corresponding to a death rate of 1.26 (1.13 to 1.41) per 1000 women per year and 70% higher than that expected from national breast cancer mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 1.70, 1.52 to 1.90). During the first five years after diagnosis of DCIS, the breast cancer death rate was similar to that expected from national mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 0.87, 0.69 to 1.10), but it then increased, with values of 1.98 (1.65 to 2.37), 2.99 (2.41 to 3.70), and 2.77 (2.01 to 3.80) in years five to nine, 10-14, and 15 or more after DCIS diagnosis. Among 29 044 women with unilateral DCIS undergoing surgery, those who had more intensive treatment (mastectomy, radiotherapy for women who had breast conserving surgery, and endocrine treatment in oestrogen receptor positive disease) and those with larger final surgical margins had lower rates of invasive breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

To date, women with DCIS detected by screening have, on average, experienced higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer than women in the general population during a period of at least two decades after their diagnosis. More intensive treatment and larger final surgical margins were associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer.

Heart failure after treatment for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop dose-response relationships for heart failure (HF) following radiation and anthracyclines in breast cancer treatment, and to assess HF associations with trastuzumab and endocrine therapies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A case-control study was performed within a cohort of breast cancer survivors treated during 1980-2009. Cases (n = 102) had HF as first cardiovascular diagnosis and were matched 1:3 on age and date of diagnosis. Individual cardiac radiation doses were estimated, and anthracycline doses and use of trastuzumab and endocrine therapy were abstracted from oncology notes. For HF cases who received radiotherapy, the estimated median mean heart dose (MHD) was 6.8 Gy [interquartile range (IQR) 0.9-13.7]. MHD was not associated with HF risk overall [excess rate ratio (ERR) = 1%/Gy, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2 to 10]. In patients treated with anthracyclines, exposure of ≥20% of the heart to ≥20 Gy was associated with a rate ratio of 5.7 (95% CI 1.7-21.7) compared to <10% exposed to ≥20 Gy. For cases who received radiotherapy, median cumulative anthracycline dose was 247 mg/m2 (IQR 240-319). A dose-dependent increase was observed after anthracycline without trastuzumab (ERR = 1.5% per mg/m2 , 95% CI 0.5-4.1). After anthracycline and trastuzumab, the rate ratio was 34.9 (95% CI 11.1-110.1) compared to no chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

In absence of anthracyclines, breast cancer radiotherapy was not associated with increased HF risk. Strongly elevated HF risks were observed after treatment with anthracyclines and also after treatment with trastuzumab. The benefits of these systemic treatments usually exceed the risks of HF, but our results emphasize the need to support ongoing efforts to evaluate preventative strategies.

Reliability of preoperative breast biopsies showing ductal carcinoma in situ and implications for non-operative treatment: a cohort study

PURPOSE

The future of non-operative management of DCIS relies on distinguishing lesions requiring treatment from those needing only active surveillance. More accurate preoperative staging and grading of DCIS would be helpful. We identified determinants of upstaging preoperative breast biopsies showing ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) to invasive breast cancer (IBC), or of upgrading them to higher-grade DCIS, following examination of the surgically excised specimen.

METHODS

We studied all women with DCIS at preoperative biopsy in a large specialist cancer centre during 2000-2014. Information from clinical records, mammography, and pathology specimens from both preoperative biopsy and excised specimen were abstracted. Women suspected of having IBC during biopsy were excluded.

RESULTS

Among 606 preoperative biopsies showing DCIS, 15.0% (95% confidence interval 12.3-18.1) were upstaged to IBC and a further 14.6% (11.3-18.4) upgraded to higher-grade DCIS. The risk of upstaging increased with presence of a palpable lump (21.1% vs 13.0%, pdifference = 0.04), while the risk of upgrading increased with presence of necrosis on biopsy (33.0% vs 9.5%, pdifference < 0.001) and with use of 14G core-needle rather than 9G vacuum-assisted biopsy (22.8% vs 7.0%, pdifference < 0.001). Larger mammographic size increased the risk of both upgrading (pheterogeneity = 0.01) and upstaging (pheterogeneity = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of upstaging of DCIS in preoperative biopsies is lower than previously estimated and justifies conducting randomized clinical trials testing the safety of active surveillance for lower grade DCIS. Selection of women with low grade DCIS for such trials, or for active surveillance, may be improved by consideration of the additional factors identified in this study.

Endocrine therapy in the years following a diagnosis of breast cancer: A proof of concept study using the primary care prescription database linked to cancer registration data

INTRODUCTION

National cancer registration data were linked to the Primary Care Prescription Database (PCPD) in England. The level of endocrine therapy (ET) prescribed in women after a diagnosis of breast cancer was studied.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cancer registrations for women diagnosed with breast cancer during 1995-2015, who survived to 31st March 2015, were linked to ET prescriptions issued during April-July 2015.

RESULTS

Among 369 277 survivors of breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2015, 37% were prescribed ET during April-July 2015. Among women whose breast cancer diagnosis was after 31st July 2010, 81% of those recorded with oestrogen receptor positive (ER+ve) disease were prescribed ET compared with only 6% of those with ER-ve disease. Younger women usually received tamoxifen and older women usually received aromatase inhibitors.

DISCUSSION

The pattern of ET use observed in these data corresponds to that expected. This provides confidence in the potential of the PCPD for epidemiological research.

International Variation in Criteria for Internal Mammary Chain Radiotherapy

AIMS

Evidence has emerged that internal mammary chain (IMC) radiotherapy reduces breast cancer mortality, leading to changes in treatment guidelines. This study investigated current IMC radiotherapy criteria and the percentages of patients irradiated for breast cancer in England who fulfilled them.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search was undertaken for national guidelines published in English during 2013-2018 presenting criteria for 'consideration of' or 'recommendation for' IMC radiotherapy. Patient and tumour variables were collected for patients who received breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016. The percentages of patients fulfilling criteria stipulated in each set of guidelines were calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 111 729 women were recorded as receiving adjuvant breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016 and full data were available on 48 095 of them. Percentages of patients fulfilling IMC radiotherapy criteria in various national guidelines were: UK Royal College of Radiologists 13% (6035/48 095), UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 18% (8816/48 095), Germany 32% (15 646/48 095), Ireland 56% (26 846/48 095) and USA 59% (28 373/48 095). Differences between countries occurred because in Ireland and the USA, treatment may be considered in some node-negative patients, whereas in the UK, treatment is considered if at least four axillary nodes are involved or for high-risk patients with one to three positive nodes. In Germany, treatment may be considered for all node-positive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

There is substantial variability between countries in criteria for consideration of IMC radiotherapy, despite guidelines being based on the same evidence. This will probably lead to large variations in practice and resource needs worldwide.

Clinical Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy for Hodgkin Lymphoma: Which Patients Benefit the Most?

PURPOSE

Radiation therapy (RT) improves control of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), but patients who undergo RT are at risk for late effects, including cardiovascular disease and second cancers, because of radiation doses to organs at risk (OARs). Proton therapy (PT) can reduce OAR doses compared with conventional photon RT. However, access to PT is currently limited, so referrals must be appropriately selective. We aimed to identify subgroups of patients with HL who could benefit the most dosimetrically from RT with PT based on the prechemotherapy disease characteristics.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Normal tissue radiation doses were calculated for 21 patients with HL who were treated with deep-inspiration breath-hold pencil-beam scanning (PBS) PT and compared with doses from 3-dimensional conformal (3D-CRT) and partial arc volumetric modulated (PartArc) photon RT. Prechemotherapy disease characteristics associated with significant dosimetric benefits from PBS compared with photon RT were identified.

RESULTS

Treatment with PBS was well tolerated and provided with good local control. PBS provided dosimetric advantages for patients whose clinical treatment volume extended below the seventh thoracic level and for female patients with axillary disease. In addition, an increasing dosimetric benefit for some OARs was observed for increasing target volume. PBS significantly reduced the mean dose to the heart, breast, lungs, spinal cord, and esophagus. Dose homogeneity and conformity within the target volume were also superior with PBS, but some high-dose measures and hot spots were increased with PBS compared with partial arc volumetric modulated photon RT.

CONCLUSIONS

PBS gives good target coverage and local control while providing reductions in radiation dose to OARs for individuals who receive RT for HL compared with advanced photon RT. Our findings highlight groups of patients who would be expected to gain more dosimetric benefit from PBS. These findings facilitate the selection of patients who should be considered a priority for PT.

Cardiac Structure Doses in Women Irradiated for Breast Cancer in the Past and Their Use in Epidemiological Studies

PURPOSE

Incidental cardiac exposure during radiation therapy may cause heart disease. Dose-response relationships for cardiac structures (segments) may show which ones are most sensitive to radiation. Radiation-related cardiac injury can take years to develop; thus, studies need to involve women treated using 2-dimensional planning, with segment doses estimated using a typical computed tomography (CT) scan. We assessed whether such segment doses are accurate enough to use in dose-response relationships using the radiation therapy charts of women with known segment injury. We estimated interregimen and interpatient segment dose variability and segment dose correlations.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The radiation therapy charts of 470 women with cardiac segment injury after breast cancer radiation therapy were examined, and 41 regimens were identified. Regimens were reconstructed on a typical CT scan. Doses were estimated for 5 left ventricle (LV) and 10 coronary artery segments. Correlations between cardiac segments were estimated. Interpatient dose variation was assessed in 10 randomly selected CT scans for left regimens and in 5 for right regimens.

RESULTS

For the typical CT scan, interregimen segment dose variation was substantial (range, LV segments <1-39 Gy; coronary artery segments <1-48 Gy). In 10 CT scans, interpatient segment dose variation was higher for segments near field borders (range, 3-47 Gy) than other segments (range, <2 Gy). Doses to different left-anterior descending coronary artery (LADCA) segments were highly correlated with each other, as were doses to different LV segments. Also, LADCA segment doses were highly correlated with doses to LV segments usually supplied by the LADCA. For individual regimens there was consistency in hotspot location and segment ranking of higher-versus-lower dose.

CONCLUSIONS

The scope for developing quantitative cardiac segment dose-response relationships in patients who had 2-dimensional planning is limited because different segment doses are often highly correlated, and segment-specific dose uncertainties are not independent of each other. However, segment-specific doses may be reliably used to rank segments according to higher-versus-lower doses.

Radiation Dose-Response for Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Breast Cancer Survivors

PURPOSE

Previous reports suggest that radiation therapy for breast cancer (BC) can cause ischemic heart disease, with the radiation-related risk increasing linearly with mean whole heart dose (MWHD). This study aimed to validate these findings in younger BC patients and to investigate additional risk factors for radiation-related myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A nested case-control study was conducted within a cohort of BC survivors treated during 1970 to 2009. Cases were 183 patients with MI as their first heart disease after BC. One control per case was selected and matched on age and BC diagnosis date. Information on treatment and cardiovascular risk factors was abstracted from medical and radiation charts. Cardiac doses were estimated for each woman by reconstructing her regimen using modern 3-dimensional computed tomography planning on a typical patient computed tomography scan.

RESULTS

Median age at BC of cases and controls was 50.2 years (interquartile range, 45.7-54.7). Median time to MI was 13.6 years (interquartile range, 9.9-18.1). Median MWHD was 8.9 Gy (range, 0.3-35.2 Gy). MI rate increased linearly with increasing MWHD (excess rate ratio [ERR] per Gy, 6.4%; 95% confidence interval, 1.3%-16.0%). Patients receiving ≥20 Gy MWHD had a 3.4-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.5-7.6) higher MI rate than unirradiated patients. ERRs were higher for younger women, with borderline significance (ERR<45years, 24.2%/Gy; ERR≥50years, 2.5%/Gy; Pinteraction = .054). Whole heart dose-volume parameters did not modify the dose-response relationship significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

MI rate after radiation for BC increases linearly with MWHD. Reductions in MWHD are expected to contribute to better cardiovascular health of BC survivors.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cardiovascular disease incidence after internal mammary chain irradiation and anthracycline-based chemotherapy for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Improved breast cancer (BC) survival and evidence showing beneficial effects of internal mammary chain (IMC) irradiation underscore the importance of studying late cardiovascular effects of BC treatment.

METHODS

We assessed cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in 14,645 Dutch BC patients aged <62 years, treated during 1970-2009. Analyses included proportional hazards models and general population comparisons.

RESULTS

CVD rate-ratio for left-versus-right breast irradiation without IMC was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93-1.32). Compared to right-sided breast irradiation only, IMC irradiation (interquartile range mean heart doses 9-17 Gy) was associated with increases in CVD rate overall, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) and valvular heart disease (hazard ratios (HRs): 1.6-2.4). IHD risk remained increased until at least 20 years after treatment. Anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with an increased HF rate (HR = 4.18, 95% CI 3.07-5.69), emerging <5 years and remaining increased at least 10-15 years after treatment. IMC irradiation combined with anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with substantially increased HF rate (HR = 9.23 95% CI 6.01-14.18), compared to neither IMC irradiation nor anthracycline-based chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Women treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapy and IMC irradiation (in an older era) with considerable mean heart dose exposure have substantially increased incidence of several CVDs. Screening may be appropriate for some BC patient groups.

Cardiac Structure Injury After Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer: Cross-Sectional Study With Individual Patient Data

Purpose Incidental cardiac irradiation can cause cardiac injury, but little is known about the effect of radiation on specific cardiac segments. Methods For 456 women who received breast cancer radiotherapy between 1958 and 2001 and then later experienced a major coronary event, information was obtained on the radiotherapy regimen they received and on the location of their cardiac injury. For 414 women, all with documented location of left ventricular (LV) injury, doses to five LV segments were estimated. For 133 women, all with documented location of coronary artery disease with ≥ 70% stenosis, doses to six coronary artery segments were estimated. For each segment, numbers of women with left-sided and right-sided breast cancer were compared. Results Of women with LV injury, 243 had left-sided breast cancer and 171 had right-sided breast cancer (ratio of left v right, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.73), reflecting the higher typical LV radiation doses in left-sided cancer (average dose left-sided, 8.3 Gy; average dose right-sided, 0.6 Gy; left minus right dose difference, 7.7 Gy). For individual LV segments, the ratios of women with left- versus right-sided radiotherapy were as follows: inferior, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.70 to 1.25); lateral, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.95); septal, 2.09 (95% CI, 1.37 to 3.19); anterior, 1.85 (95% CI, 1.39 to 2.46); and apex, 4.64 (95% CI, 2.42 to 8.90); corresponding left-minus-right dose differences for these segments were 2.7, 4.9, 7.2, 10.4, and 21.6 Gy, respectively ( Ptrend < .001). For women with coronary artery disease, the ratios of women with left- versus right-radiotherapy for individual coronary artery segments were as follows: right coronary artery proximal, 0.48 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.91); right coronary artery mid or distal, 1.69 (95% CI, 0.85 to 3.36); circumflex proximal, 1.46 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.96); circumflex distal, 1.11 (95% CI, 0.45 to 2.73); left anterior descending proximal, 1.89 (95% CI, 1.07 to 3.34); and left anterior descending mid or distal, 2.33 (95% CI, 1.19 to 4.59); corresponding left-minus-right dose differences for these segements were -5.0, -2.5, 1.6, 3.5, 9.5, and 38.8 Gy ( Ptrend = .002). Conclusion For individual LV and coronary artery segments, higher radiation doses were strongly associated with more frequent injury, suggesting that all segments are sensitive to radiation and that doses to all segments should be minimized.

Abstract P2-03-10: Risk factors for upgrading and upstaging of pre-operative biopsies in ductal carcinoma in situ

Background: Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), accounts for one fifth of all screen-detected neoplastic breast lesions. Contemporary research in DCIS focuses on separating lesions that need active treatment from those that can be safely left under surveillance. This, in turn, relies on accurate determination of invasive status and DCIS grade at time of initial biopsy. Most previous studies have examined factors associated with upstaging the diagnosis from DCIS to invasive breast cancer (IBC) following surgery, and few have evaluated factors associated with upgrading the diagnosis to a higher grade of DCIS. This is because upgrading has not traditionally influenced clinical management in the way that upstaging has done. However, recent interest in non-operative treatment for low-risk DCIS has meant that accurate determination of grade at time of initial biopsy has become more important. We aimed to compare risk factors for upgrading and upstaging of biopsies in DCIS.

Method: We undertook a cohort study of all women diagnosed with DCIS at a large specialist cancer centre between 2000–2014. Information from the clinical records was abstracted, including the pre-operative mammography (MMG) and pathology information from the initial biopsy. We also abstracted pathology information regarding the excised specimen in order to identify women whose diagnosis was subsequently upgraded or upstaged. We looked for factors that were predictive for upgrading or upstaging.

Result: A total of 641 women were diagnosed with DCIS at initial biopsy. Of these, 72 (11%) were upgraded: 26 (4%) from grade 1 to grade 2, 2 (0.3%) from grade 1 to grade 3 and 44 (7%) from grade 2 to grade 3. A further 115 (18%) were upstaged to IBC: 20 of these (3%) had grade 1 DCIS on initial biopsy, 47 (7%) had grade 2, 43 (7%) grade 3, and for 5 (1%) biopsy grade was not available. Necrosis on biopsy increased the risk of upgrading (with necrosis: 14% upgraded, without: 10% upgraded, p for difference 0.02) and also of upstaging (with necrosis: 23% upstaged, without: 15% upstaged, p for difference &lt;0.01). Lesions measuring ≥50 mm on MMG were more likely to be upgraded than smaller lesions (0-19 mm: 9% upgraded, 20-50 mm: 9% upgraded, ≥50 mm: 19% upgraded, p for heterogeneity &lt;0.01), while lesions measuring 20-50 mm and ≥50 mm were both more likely to be upstaged than lesions measuring 0-19 mm (0-19 mm: 9% upstaged, 20-50 mm: 23% upstaged and ≥50 mm: 21% upstaged, p for heterogeneity &lt;0.01). Fewer 9G vacuum-assisted biopsies than 14G core biopsies were upgraded (9G vacuum-assisted: 7% upgraded, 14G core: 15% upgraded, p for difference 0.01), while the effect of biopsy method on upstaging was not significant (9G vacuum-assisted: 12% upstaged, 14G core: 16% upstaged, p for difference 0.15). Presence of a palpable lump was not significantly associated with upgrading (palpable lump: 13% upgraded, no palpable lump: 10% upgraded, p for difference 0.19) but increased the risk of upstaging (palpable lump: 23% upstaged, no palpable lump: 16% upstaged, p for difference 0.02).

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that consideration of MMG lesion size and necrosis on biopsy may be helpful in selecting low-risk women for non-operative management of DCIS, as may use of the 9G vacuum-assisted method of biopsy.

Citation Format: Mannu GS, Groen E, Wang Z, Schaapveld M, Lips E, Chung M, Joore I, Leeuwen Fv, Teerstra J, Winter-Warnars GAO, Darby SC, Wesseling J. Risk factors for upgrading and upstaging of pre-operative biopsies in ductal carcinoma in situ [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-03-10.

Exposure of the lungs in breast cancer radiotherapy: A systematic review of lung doses published 2010-2015

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We report a systematic review of lung radiation doses from breast cancer radiotherapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Studies describing breast cancer radiotherapy regimens published during 2010-2015 and reporting lung dose were included. Doses were compared between different countries, anatomical regions irradiated, techniques and use of breathing adaptation.

RESULTS

471 regimens from 32 countries were identified. The average mean ipsilateral lung dose (MLDipsi) was 9.0 Gy. MLDipsi for supine radiotherapy with no breathing adaption was 8.4 Gy for whole breast/chest wall (WB/CW) radiotherapy, 11.2 Gy when the axilla/supraclavicular fossa was irradiated, and 14.0 Gy with the addition of internal mammary chain irradiation; breathing adaptation reduced MLDipsi by 1 Gy, 2 Gy and 3 Gy respectively (p < 0.005). For WB/CW radiotherapy, MLDipsi was lowest for tangents in prone (1.2 Gy) or lateral decubitus (0.8 Gy) positions. The highest MLDipsi was for IMRT in supine position (9.4 Gy). The average mean contralateral lung dose (MLDcont) for WB/CW radiotherapy was higher for IMRT (3.0 Gy) than for tangents (0.8 Gy).

CONCLUSIONS

Lung doses from breast cancer radiotherapy varied substantially worldwide, even between studies describing similar regimens. Lymph node inclusion and IMRT use increased exposure, while breathing adaptation and prone/lateral decubitus positioning reduced it.

Long-term hospitalisation rates among 5-year survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma in adolescence or young adulthood: A nationwide cohort study

In the present study, we report on the full range of physical diseases acquired by survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed in adolescence or young adulthood. In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 1,768 five-year survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed at ages 15-39 years during 1943-2004 and 228,447 comparison subjects matched to survivors on age and year of birth were included. Hospital discharge diagnoses and bed-days during 1977-2010 were obtained from the Danish Patient Register for 145 specific disease categories gathered in 14 main diagnostic groups. The analysis was conducted separately on three subcohorts of survivors, that is, survivors diagnosed 1943-1976 for whom we had no information on rehospitalisation for Hodgkin lymphoma and survivors diagnosed 1977-2004, split into a subcohort with no expected relapses and a subcohort for whom a rehospitalisation for Hodgkin lymphoma indicated a relapse. The overall standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (RRs) were 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.9-2.1], 1.5 (1.4-1.6) and 2.9 (2.6-3.1) respectively, and the corresponding RRs for bed-days were 3.5 (3.4-3.5), 1.8 (1.8-1.9) and 10.4 (10.3-10.6). Highest RRs were seen for nonmalignant haematological conditions (RR: 2.6; 3.1 and 9.7), malignant neoplasms (RR: 3.2; 2.5 and 4.7) and all infections combined (RR: 2.5; 2.2 and 5.3). Survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma in adolescence or young adulthood are at increased risk for a wide range of diseases that require hospitalisation. The risk depends on calendar period of treatment and on whether the survivors were rehospitalised for Hodgkin lymphoma, and thus likely had a relapse.

Risk of heart disease in relation to radiotherapy and chemotherapy with anthracyclines among 19,464 breast cancer patients in Denmark, 1977-2005

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The risk of heart disease subsequent to breast cancer radiotherapy was examined with particular focus on women receiving anthracycline-containing chemotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer in Denmark, 1977-2005, were identified from the register of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group, as was information on cancer-directed treatment. Information on heart disease was sought from the Danish National Patient and Cause of Death Registries. Incidence rate ratios were estimated comparing left-sided with right-sided cancer (IRR, LvR), stratified by calendar year, age, and time since breast cancer radiotherapy.

RESULTS

Among 19,464 women receiving radiotherapy, the IRR, LvR, was 1.11 (95% CI 1.03-1.20, p=0.005) for all heart disease and among those also receiving anthracyclines the IRR, LvR, was 1.32 (95% CI 1.02-1.70, p=0.03). This risk was highest if the treatment was given before the age of 50years (IRR, LvR, 1.44, (95% CI 1.04-2.01) but there was no significant trend with age or time since treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiotherapy for left-sided breast cancer is associated with a higher risk of heart disease than for right-sided with the largest increases seen in women who also received anthracycline-containing chemotherapy.

Risk of heart failure in survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma: effects of cardiac exposure to radiation and anthracyclines

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors treated with radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy are known to have increased risks of heart failure (HF), but a radiation dose-response relationship has not previously been derived. A case-control study, nested in a cohort of 2617 five-year survivors of HL diagnosed before age 51 years during 1965 to 1995, was conducted. Cases (n = 91) had moderate or severe HF as their first cardiovascular diagnosis. Controls (n = 278) were matched to cases on age, sex, and HL diagnosis date. Treatment and follow-up information were abstracted from medical records. Mean heart doses and mean left ventricular doses (MLVD) were estimated by reconstruction of individual treatments on representative computed tomography datasets. Average MLVD was 16.7 Gy for cases and 13.8 Gy for controls (Pdifference = .003). HF rate increased with MLVD: relative to 0 Gy, HF rates following MVLD of 1-15, 16-20, 21-25, and ≥26 Gy were 1.27, 1.65, 3.84, and 4.39, respectively (Ptrend < .001). Anthracycline-containing chemotherapy increased HF rate by a factor of 2.83 (95% CI: 1.43-5.59), and there was no significant interaction with MLVD (Pinteraction = .09). Twenty-five-year cumulative risks of HF following MLVDs of 0-15 Gy, 16-20 Gy, and ≥21 Gy were 4.4%, 6.2%, and 13.3%, respectively, in patients treated without anthracycline-containing chemotherapy, and 11.2%, 15.9%, and 32.9%, respectively, in patients treated with anthracyclines. We have derived quantitative estimates of HF risk in patients treated for HL following radiotherapy with or without anthracycline-containing chemotherapy. Our results enable estimation of HF risk for patients before treatment, during radiotherapy planning, and during follow-up.

A cardiac contouring atlas for radiotherapy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The heart is a complex anatomical organ and contouring the cardiac substructures is challenging. This study presents a reproducible method for contouring left ventricular and coronary arterial segments on radiotherapy CT-planning scans.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Segments were defined from cardiology models and agreed by two cardiologists. Reference atlas contours were delineated and written guidelines prepared. Six radiation oncologists tested the atlas. Spatial variation was assessed using the DICE similarity coefficient (DSC) and the directed Hausdorff average distance (d→H,avg). The effect of spatial variation on doses was assessed using six different breast cancer regimens.

RESULTS

The atlas enabled contouring of 15 cardiac segments. Inter-observer contour overlap (mean DSC) was 0.60-0.73 for five left ventricular segments and 0.10-0.53 for ten coronary arterial segments. Inter-observer contour separation (mean d→H,avg) was 1.5-2.2mm for left ventricular segments and 1.3-5.1mm for coronary artery segments. This spatial variation resulted in <1Gy dose variation for most regimens and segments, but 1.2-21.8Gy variation for segments close to a field edge.

CONCLUSIONS

This cardiac atlas enables reproducible contouring of segments of the left ventricle and main coronary arteries to facilitate future studies relating cardiac radiation doses to clinical outcomes.

Dose and Fractionation in Radiation Therapy of Curative Intent for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

PURPOSE

The optimum dose and fractionation in radiation therapy of curative intent for non-small cell lung cancer remains uncertain. We undertook a published data meta-analysis of randomized trials to examine whether radiation therapy regimens with higher time-corrected biologically equivalent doses resulted in longer survival, either when given alone or when given with chemotherapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Eligible studies were randomized comparisons of 2 or more radiation therapy regimens, with other treatments identical. Median survival ratios were calculated for each comparison and pooled.

RESULTS

3795 patients in 25 randomized comparisons of radiation therapy dose were studied. The median survival ratio, higher versus lower corrected dose, was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.22) when radiation therapy was given alone and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71-0.97) when it was given with concurrent chemotherapy (P for difference=.001). In comparisons of radiation therapy given alone, the survival benefit increased with increasing dose difference between randomized treatment arms (P for trend=.004). The benefit increased with increasing dose in the lower-dose arm (P for trend=.01) without reaching a level beyond which no further survival benefit was achieved. The survival benefit did not differ significantly between randomized comparisons where the higher-dose arm was hyperfractionated and those where it was not. There was heterogeneity in the median survival ratio by geographic region (P<.001), average age at randomization (P<.001), and year trial started (P for trend=.004), but not for proportion of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (P=.2).

CONCLUSIONS

In trials with concurrent chemotherapy, higher radiation therapy doses resulted in poorer survival, possibly caused, at least in part, by high levels of toxicity. Where radiation therapy was given without chemotherapy, progressively higher radiation therapy doses resulted in progressively longer survival, and no upper dose level was found above which there was no further benefit. These findings support the consideration of further radiation therapy dose escalation trials, making use of modern treatment methods to reduce toxicity.

Cardiac Mortality Among 200 000 Five-Year Survivors of Cancer Diagnosed at 15 to 39 Years of Age: The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

Survivors of teenage and young adult cancer are acknowledged as understudied. Little is known about their long-term adverse health risks, particularly of cardiac disease that is increased in other cancer populations where cardiotoxic treatments have been used.

Methods:

The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study cohort comprises 200 945 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed at 15 to 39 years of age in England and Wales from 1971 to 2006, and followed to 2014. Standardized mortality ratios, absolute excess risks, and cumulative risks were calculated.

Results:

Two thousand sixteen survivors died of cardiac disease. For all cancers combined, the standardized mortality ratios for all cardiac diseases combined was greatest for individuals diagnosed at 15 to 19 years of age (4.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.4–5.2) decreasing to 1.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.1–1.3) for individuals aged 35 to 39 years (2P for trend <0.0001). Similar patterns were observed for both standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks for ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, and cardiomyopathy. Survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma, acute myeloid leukaemia, genitourinary cancers other than bladder cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, lung cancer, leukaemia other than acute myeloid, central nervous system tumour, cervical cancer, and breast cancer experienced 3.8, 2.7, 2.0, 1.7, 1.7, 1.6, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 times the number of cardiac deaths expected from the general population, respectively. Among survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma aged over 60 years, almost 30% of the total excess number of deaths observed were due to heart disease.

Conclusions:

This study of over 200 000 cancer survivors shows that age at cancer diagnosis was critical in determining subsequent cardiac mortality risk. For the first time, risk estimates of cardiac death after each cancer diagnosed between the ages of 15 and 39 years have been derived from a large population-based cohort with prolonged follow-up. The evidence here provides an initial basis for developing evidence-based follow-up guidelines.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Uncertainties in estimating heart doses from 2D-tangential breast cancer radiotherapy

Background and purpose

We evaluated the accuracy of three methods of estimating radiation dose to the heart from two-dimensional tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer, as used in Denmark during 1982–2002.

Material and methods

Three tangential radiotherapy regimens were reconstructed using CT-based planning scans for 40 patients with left-sided and 10 with right-sided breast cancer. Setup errors and organ motion were simulated using estimated uncertainties. For left-sided patients, mean heart dose was related to maximum heart distance in the medial field.

Results

For left-sided breast cancer, mean heart dose estimated from individual CT-scans varied from <1 Gy to >8 Gy, and maximum dose from 5 to 50 Gy for all three regimens, so that estimates based only on regimen had substantial uncertainty. When maximum heart distance was taken into account, the uncertainty was reduced and was comparable to the uncertainty of estimates based on individual CT-scans. For right-sided breast cancer patients, mean heart dose based on individual CT-scans was always <1 Gy and maximum dose always <5 Gy for all three regimens.

Conclusions

The use of stored individual simulator films provides a method for estimating heart doses in left-tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer that is almost as accurate as estimates based on individual CT-scans.

Radiation Dose-Response Relationship for Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Survivors of Hodgkin Lymphoma

Purpose

Cardiovascular diseases are increasingly recognized as late effects of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treatment. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and to quantify the effects of radiation dose to the heart, chemotherapy, and other cardiovascular risk factors.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of 2,617 5-year HL survivors, treated between 1965 and 1995. Cases were patients diagnosed with CHD as their first cardiovascular event after HL. Detailed treatment information was collected from medical records of 325 cases and 1,204 matched controls. Radiation charts and simulation radiographs were used to estimate in-field heart volume and mean heart dose (MHD). A risk factor questionnaire was sent to patients still alive.

Results

The median interval between HL and CHD was 19.0 years. Risk of CHD increased linearly with increasing MHD (excess relative risk [ERR]) per Gray, 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.3% to 14.8%). This results in a 2.5-fold increased risk of CHD for patients receiving a MHD of 20 Gy from mediastinal radiotherapy, compared with patients not treated with mediastinal radiotherapy. ERRs seemed to decrease with each tertile of age at treatment (ERR/Gy<27.5years, 20.0%; ERR/Gy27.5-36.4years, 8.8%; ERR/Gy36.5-50.9years, 4.2%; Pinteraction = .149). Having ≥ 1 classic CHD risk factor (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, or hypercholesterolemia) independently increased CHD risk (rate ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1). A high level of physical activity was associated with decreased CHD risk (rate ratio, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.8).

Conclusion

The linear radiation dose-response relationship identified can be used to predict CHD risk for future HL patients and survivors. Appropriate early management of CHD risk factors and stimulation of physical activity may reduce CHD risk in HL survivors.

Inferring the Effects of Cancer Treatment: Divergent Results From Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group Meta-Analyses of Randomized Trials and Observational Data From SEER Registries

PURPOSE

To compare the effect of breast cancer radiotherapy as estimated from observational data with findings from randomized trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Rate ratios were obtained for selected end points among 13,932 women randomly assigned to receive radiotherapy or not in trials contributing to recent meta-analyses by the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group. Estimates of the same quantities were derived for 393,840 women registered with breast cancer in the US SEER registries between 1973 and 2008.

RESULTS

In the randomized trials, radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery reduced mortality from both breast cancer (rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.90) and all causes (rate ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99). Reductions of similar magnitude were seen in the trials of radiotherapy after mastectomy in node-positive disease (rate ratios, breast cancer 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.94; all causes, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.97). In the observational data, radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery was associated with much larger mortality reductions (rate ratios, breast cancer, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.66; all causes, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.65), whereas radiotherapy after mastectomy in node-positive disease was associated with substantial increases in mortality (rate ratios, breast cancer, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.37; all causes, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.25). Detailed adjustment of the observational data for potential confounders did not reduce the divergence from the randomized data.

CONCLUSION

This study of mortality after radiotherapy for breast cancer found strikingly divergent results between the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group meta-analyses of randomized data and the SEER observational data, even when efforts had been made to remove confounding and selection biases. Nonrandomized comparisons are liable to provide misleading estimates of treatment effects. Therefore, they need careful justification every time they are used.

Risk of valvular heart disease after treatment for Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are at increased risk of developing valvular heart disease (VHD). We evaluated the determinants of the risk and the radiation dose-response.

METHODS

A case-control study was nested in a cohort of 1852 five-year HL survivors diagnosed at ages 15 to 41 years and treated between 1965 and 1995. Case patients had VHD of at least moderate severity as their first cardiovascular diagnosis following HL treatment. Control patients were matched to case patients for age, gender, and HL diagnosis date. Treatment and follow-up data were abstracted from medical records. Radiation doses to heart valves were estimated by reconstruction of individual treatments on representative computed tomography datasets. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine case patients with VHD were identified (66 severe or life-threatening) and 200 control patients. Aortic (n = 63) and mitral valves (n = 42) were most frequently affected. Risks increased more than linearly with radiation dose. For doses to the affected valve(s) of less than or equal to 30, 31-35, 36-40, and more than 40 Gy, VHD rates increased by factors of 1.4, 3.1, 5.4, and 11.8, respectively (P trend < .001). Approximate 30-year cumulative risks were 3.0%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 12.4% for the same dose categories. VHD rate increased with splenectomy by a factor of 2.3 (P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiation dose to the heart valves can increase the risk of clinically significant VHD, especially at doses above 30 Gy. However, for patients with mediastinal involvement treated today with 20 or 30 Gy, the 30-year risk will be increased by only about 1.4%. These findings may be useful for patients and doctors both before treatment and during follow-up.

Cardiovascular disease after cancer therapy

Improvements in treatment and earlier diagnosis have both contributed to increased survival for many cancer patients. Unfortunately, many treatments carry a risk of late effects including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), possibly leading to significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper we describe current knowledge of the cardiotoxicity arising from cancer treatments, outline gaps in knowledge, and indicate directions for future research and guideline development, as discussed during the 2014 Cancer Survivorship Summit organised by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC). Better knowledge is needed of the late effects of modern systemic treatments and of radiotherapy to critical structures of the heart, including the effect of both radiation dose and volume of the heart exposed. Research elucidating the extent to which treatments interact in causing CVD, and the mechanisms involved, as well as the extent to which treatments may increase CVD indirectly by increasing cardiovascular risk factors is also important. Systematic collection of data relating treatment details to late effects is needed, and great care is needed to obtain valid and generalisable results. Better knowledge of these cardiac effects will contribute to both primary and secondary prevention of late complications where exposure to cardiotoxic treatment is unavoidable. Also surrogate markers would help to identify patients at increased risk of cardiotoxicity. Evidence-based screening guidelines for CVD following cancer are also needed. Finally, risk prediction models should be developed to guide primary treatment choice and appropriate follow up after cancer treatment.

Report on the international colloquium on cardio-oncology (rome, 12-14 march 2014)

Cardio-oncology is a relatively new discipline that focuses on the cardiovascular sequelae of anti-tumour drugs. As any other young adolescent discipline, cardio-oncology struggles to define its scientific boundaries and to identify best standards of care for cancer patients or survivors at risk of cardiovascular events. The International Colloquium on Cardio-Oncology was held in Rome, Italy, 12–14 March 2014, with the aim of illuminating controversial issues and unmet needs in modern cardio-oncology. This colloquium embraced contributions from different kind of disciplines (oncology and cardiology but also paediatrics, geriatrics, genetics, and translational research); in fact, cardio-oncology goes way beyond the merging of cardiology with oncology. Moreover, the colloquium programme did not review cardiovascular toxicity from one drug or the other, rather it looked at patients as we see them in their fight against cancer and eventually returning to everyday life. This represents the melting pot in which anti-cancer therapies, genetic backgrounds, and risk factors conspire in producing cardiovascular sequelae, and this calls for screening programmes and well-designed platforms of collaboration between one key professional figure and another.

The International Colloquium on Cardio-Oncology was promoted by the Menarini International Foundation and co-chaired by Giorgio Minotti (Rome), Joseph R Carver (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States), and Steven E Lipshultz (Detroit, Michigan, United States). The programme was split into five sessions of broad investigational and clinical relevance (what is cardiotoxicity?, cardiotoxicity in children, adolescents, and young adults, cardiotoxicity in adults, cardiotoxicity in special populations, and the future of cardio-oncology). Here, the colloquium chairs and all the session chairs briefly summarised what was said at the colloquium. Topics and controversies were reported on behalf of all members of the working group of the International Colloquium on Cardio-Oncology.

Cancer risk in 680,000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans.

DESIGN

Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. COHORT MEMBERS: 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records.

MAIN OUTCOME

Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals.

RESULTS

60,674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680,211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100,000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.