Data Checks Before Registering Study Protocols for Health Care Database Analyses

This Viewpoint discusses the challenges involved with secondary health care data collection vs primary data collection and provides a list of suggested data checks before registration of a study protocol using secondary data.

Emulation of randomized trials of direct oral anticoagulants with claims data and implications for new Factor XI inhibitors

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) revolutionized the management of thromboembolic disorders. Clinical care may be further improved as Factor XIs undergo large-scale outcome trials. What role can non-randomized database studies play in expediting understanding of these drugs in clinical practice? The RCT-DUPLICATIVE Initiative emulated the design of eight DOAC randomized clinical trials (RCT) using non-randomized claims database studies. RCT study design parameters and measurements were closely emulated by the database studies and produced highly concordant results. The results of the single database study that did not meet all agreement metrics with the specific RCT it was emulating were aligned with a meta-analysis of six trials studying similar questions, suggesting the trial result was an outlier. Well-designed database studies using fit-for-purpose data came to the same conclusions as DOAC trials, illustrating how database studies could complement RCTs for Factor XI inhibitors-by accelerating insights in underrepresented populations, demonstrating effectiveness and safety in clinical practice, and testing broader indications.

Validation of alopecia coding in US claims data among women of childbearing age

BACKGROUND

Accurately identifying alopecia in claims data is important to study this rare medication side effect.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a claims-based algorithm to identify alopecia in women of childbearing age.

METHODS

We linked electronic health records from a large healthcare system in Massachusetts (Mass General Brigham) with Medicaid claims data from 2016 through 2018 to identify all women aged 18 to 50 years with an ICD-10 code for alopecia, including alopecia areata, androgenic alopecia, non-scarring alopecia, or cicatricial alopecia, from a visit to the MGB system. Using eight predefined algorithms to identify alopecia in Medicaid claims data, we randomly selected 300 women for whom we reviewed their charts to validate the alopecia diagnosis. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were computed for the primary algorithm and seven algorithm variations, stratified by race.

RESULTS

Out of 300 patients with at least 1 ICD-10 code for alopecia in the Medicaid claims, 286 had chart-confirmed alopecia (PPV = 95.3%). The algorithm requiring two diagnosis codes plus one prescription claim for alopecia treatment identified 55 patients (PPV = 100%). The algorithm requiring 1 diagnosis code for alopecia plus 1 procedure claim for intralesional triamcinolone injection identified 35 patients (PPV = 100%). Across all 8 algorithms tested, the PPV varied between 95.3% and 100%. The PPV for alopecia ranged from 94% to 100% in White and 96%-100% in 48 non-White women. The exact date of alopecia onset was difficult to determine in charts.

CONCLUSION

At least one recorded ICD-10 code for alopecia in claims data identified alopecia in women of childbearing age with high accuracy.

Effectiveness and safety of empagliflozin: final results from the EMPRISE study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Limited evidence exists on the comparative safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin against alternative glucose-lowering medications in individuals with type 2 diabetes with the broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. The EMPagliflozin compaRative effectIveness and SafEty (EMPRISE) cohort study was designed to monitor the safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin periodically for a period of 5 years with data collection from electronic healthcare databases.

METHODS

We identified individuals ≥18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we identified four a priori-defined effectiveness outcomes: (1) myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke; (2) hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF); (3) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE); and (4) cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Safety outcomes included lower-limb amputations, non-vertebral fractures, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), acute kidney injury (AKI), severe hypoglycaemia, retinopathy progression, and short-term kidney and bladder cancers. We estimated HRs and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years, overall and stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure.

RESULTS

We identified 115,116 matched pairs. Compared with DPP-4i, empagliflozin was associated with lower risks of MI/stroke (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.81, 0.96]; RD -2.08 [95% CI (-3.26, -0.90]), HHF (HR 0.50 [0.44, 0.56]; RD -5.35 [-6.22, -4.49]), MACE (HR 0.73 [0.62, 0.86]; RD -6.37 [-8.98, -3.77]) and cardiovascular mortality/HHF (HR 0.57 [0.47, 0.69]; RD -10.36 [-12.63, -8.12]). Absolute benefits were larger in older individuals and in those with ASCVD/heart failure. Empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA (HR 1.78 [1.44, 2.19]; RD 1.59 [1.08, 2.09]); decreased risks of AKI (HR 0.62 [0.54, 0.72]; RD -2.39 [-3.08, -1.71]), hypoglycaemia (HR 0.75 [0.67, 0.84]; RD -2.46 [-3.32, -1.60]) and retinopathy progression (HR 0.78 [0.63, 0.96)]; RD -9.49 [-16.97, -2.10]); and similar risks of other safety events.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin relative to DPP-4i was associated with risk reductions of MI or stroke, HHF, MACE and the composite of cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older individuals and in those who had history of ASCVD or heart failure. Regarding the safety outcomes, empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA and lower risks of AKI, hypoglycaemia and progression to proliferative retinopathy, with no difference in the short-term risks of lower-extremity amputation, non-vertebral fractures, kidney and renal pelvis cancer, and bladder cancer.

Prevalence of Pretreatment Testing Recommended for Patients With Chronic Inflammatory Skin Diseases

Importance

Laboratory testing for the presence of tuberculosis, hepatitis, and other conditions before starting most systemic immunomodulatory agents is recommended in patients with chronic inflammatory skin diseases (CISD) but current testing patterns in the US are unclear.

Objective

To determine the prevalence of pretreatment testing that is recommended for patients with CISD (psoriasis, hidradenitis suppurativa, or atopic dermatitis).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This descriptive analysis of US commercial insurance claims databases from December 31, 2002, to December 31, 2020, included adult patients with CISD (psoriasis, hidradenitis suppurativa, or atopic dermatitis) who started an immunomodulatory agent, including methotrexate, tumor necrosis factor α inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-17Ai, ustekinumab, IL-23i, dupilumab, or apremilast.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The proportion of patients who underwent the screening tests as suggested by professional societies-including for tuberculosis, hepatitis, and liver function; complete blood cell counts; and lipid panels-were determined within 6 months before and during 2 years after treatment start.

Results

A total of 122 308 patients with CISDs (median [IQR] age, 49 [38-58] years; 63 663 [52.1%] male) starting systemic immunomodulatory treatment in the US were included. Treatment for patients with CISDs comprised methotrexate (28 684), tumor necrosis factor α inhibitors (40 965), ustekinumab (12 841), IL-23i (6116), IL-17Ai (9799), dupilumab (7787), or apremilast (16 116). Complete blood cell count was the most common test, performed in 41% (3161/7787) to 69% (19 659/28 684) of individuals before initiation across treatments. Between 11% (889/7787) and 59% (3613/6116) of patients had tuberculosis screening within 6 months before treatment, and 3% (149/4577) to 26% (1559/6097) had updated tests 1 year later. Between 13% (1006/7787) and 41% (16 728/40 965) had hepatitis panels before treatment. Low pretreatment testing levels before apremilast (15% [2331/16 116] to 45% [7253/16 116]) persisted a year into treatment (9% [816/8496] to 36% [2999/8496]) and were similar to dupilumab (11% [850/7787] to 41% [3161/7787] vs 3% [149/4577] to 25% [1160/4577]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this descriptive analysis of patients with CISDs starting systemic immunomodulatory treatment in the US, less than 60% received the recommended pretreatment testing. Additional research is required to understand whether variations in testing affect patient outcomes.

Patient Characteristics Associated With Using Transcatheter Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Versus Oral Anticoagulants for Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Transcatheter left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is an alternative to oral anticoagulants (OACs) for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation, but the predictors of LAAO use in routine care are unclear. We aimed to assess the utilization trends of LAAO and compare the change in characteristics of LAAO users versus OACs since its marketing.

METHODS

Using the US Medicare claims database (March 15, 2015, to December 31, 2020), we identified patients with atrial fibrillation, ≥65 years, and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (men) or ≥3 (women), with either first implantation of an LAAO device or initiation of OACs, including apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, edoxaban, or warfarin. Patient characteristics, measured 365 days before the first LAAO or OAC use date, were compared using logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 30 058 LAAO recipients (mean age, 77.74 years; female, 42.1%) and 792 600 OAC initiators (mean age, 78.48; female, 53.3%). In 2020, patients had higher odds of initiating LAAO use than in 2015 (0.52 versus 9.32%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 13.64 [95% CI, 12.56-14.81]). Old age (ie, >85 versus 65-75 years; aOR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.80-0.88]), female sex (aOR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.71-0.76]), Black race (aOR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.58-0.68]) versus White race, and Medicaid eligibility (aOR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.58-0.64]) were associated with lower odds of receiving LAAO. Among clinical characteristics, frailty, cancer, fractures, and venous thromboembolism were associated with lower odds of LAAO use, while history of intracranial and extracranial bleeding, coagulopathy, and falls were associated with higher odds of receiving LAAO.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with atrial fibrillation receiving stroke-preventive therapy, LAAO use increased rapidly from 2015 to 2020 and was positively associated with the risk factors for OAC complications but negatively associated with old age, advanced frailty, and cancer. Black race and female sex were associated with a lower likelihood of receiving LAAO.

Cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin vs. glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: final-year results from the EMPRISE study

BACKGROUND

No randomized clinical trials have directly compared the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin and GLP-1RA agents with demonstrated cardioprotective effects in patients with a broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. We reported the final-year results of the EMPRISE study, a monitoring program designed to evaluate the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin across broad patient subgroups.

METHODS

We identified patients ≥ 18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or GLP-1RA from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we evaluated risks of outcomes including myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE - MI, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality), a composite of HHF or cardiovascular mortality, and progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-4). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1,000 person-years, overall and within subgroups of age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and heart failure (HF).

RESULTS

We identified 141,541 matched pairs. Compared with GLP-1RA, empagliflozin was associated with similar risks of MI or stroke [HR: 0.99 (0.92, 1.07); RD: -0.23 (-1.25, 0.79)], and lower risks of HHF [HR: 0.50 (0.44, 0.56); RD: -2.28 (-2.98, -1.59)], MACE [HR: 0.90 (0.82, 0.99); RD: -2.54 (-4.76, -0.32)], cardiovascular mortality or HHF [HR: 0.77 (0.69, 0.86); RD: -4.11 (-5.95, -2.29)], and ESKD [0.75 (0.60, 0.94); RD: -6.77 (-11.97, -1.61)]. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older patients and in those with baseline ASCVD/HF. They did not differ by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The cardiovascular benefits of empagliflozin vs. cardioprotective GLP-1RA agents were larger in older patients and in patients with history of ASCVD or HF, while they did not differ by sex. In patients with advanced CKD, empagliflozin was associated with risk reductions of progression to ESKD.

Design differences and variation in results between randomised trials and non-randomised emulations: meta-analysis of RCT-DUPLICATE data

Objective

To explore how design emulation and population differences relate to variation in results between randomised controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomised real world evidence (RWE) studies, based on the RCT-DUPLICATE initiative (Randomised, Controlled Trials Duplicated Using Prospective Longitudinal Insurance Claims: Applying Techniques of Epidemiology).

Design

Meta-analysis of RCT-DUPLICATE data.

Data sources

Trials included in RCT-DUPLICATE, a demonstration project that emulated 32 randomised controlled trials using three real world data sources: Optum Clinformatics Data Mart, 2004-19; IBM MarketScan, 2003-17; and subsets of Medicare parts A, B, and D, 2009-17.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies

Trials where the primary analysis resulted in a hazard ratio; 29 RCT-RWE study pairs from RCT-DUPLICATE.

Results

Differences and variation in effect sizes between the results from randomised controlled trials and real world evidence studies were investigated. Most of the heterogeneity in effect estimates between the RCT-RWE study pairs in this sample could be explained by three emulation differences in the meta-regression model: treatment started in hospital (which does not appear in health insurance claims data), discontinuation of some baseline treatments at randomisation (which would have been an unusual care decision in clinical practice), and delayed onset of drug effects (which would be under-reported in real world clinical practice because of the relatively short persistence of the treatment). Adding the three emulation differences to the meta-regression reduced heterogeneity from 1.9 to almost 1 (absence of heterogeneity).

Conclusions

This analysis suggests that a substantial proportion of the observed variation between results from randomised controlled trials and real world evidence studies can be attributed to differences in design emulation.

Stratified analysis in comparative effectiveness studies that emulate randomized trials

PURPOSE

For observational cohort studies that employ matching by propensity scores (PS), preliminary stratification by consequential predictors of outcome better emulates stratified randomization and potentially reduces variance and bias through relaxed dependence on modeling assumptions. We assessed the impact of pre-stratification in two real-life examples. For both, prior evidence from placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials (RCTs) suggested small or no risk reduction, but observational analysis suggested protection, presumably the result of confounding bias.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The study populations consisted of Medicare beneficiaries (2014-18) with type 2 diabetes initiating either (i) empagliflozin versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) or (ii) empagliflozin versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA). The outcome was myocardial infarction or stroke. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) after controlling for 143 pre-exposure covariates via 1:1 PS matching after (1) PS estimation in the total cohort (total-cohort PS-matching) and (2) PS estimation separately by baseline cardiovascular disease (stratified PS matching).

RESULTS

Stratified PS matching resulted in HRs that exceeded those from total-cohort PS-matching by 13% and 9%, respectively, for the comparisons of empagliflozin to DPP-4i and GLP-1RA. Against both comparators, HRs and RDs after stratified PS matching were closer to the null, with slightly higher variances (2%-3%) than those after total-cohort PS matching.

CONCLUSION

Stratified PS matching produced effect estimates closer to the expected trial findings than total-cohort PS matching. The price paid in increased variance was minimal.

High-Dose vs. Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccine and Cardiopulmonary Hospitalization or Mortality: Emulating the INVESTED Trial Using Insurance Claims Data

The INVESTED trial did not show benefits of high-dose (HD) vaccine vs. standard-dose (SD) for a primary composite outcome of cardiopulmonary hospitalization or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.15) and its components (all-cause mortality HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.84-1.21, cardiopulmonary hospitalization HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.96-1.16) during three influenza seasons (2016-2019) among participants with recent myocardial infarction or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). We emulated INVESTED using Medicare claims data to assess whether the real-world evidence (RWE) study reached similar conclusions. We identified 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched trial-eligible Medicare beneficiaries aged > 65 years and with prior HHF who received an HD or SD vaccine for the 2016-2019 seasons. We also re-analyzed the INVESTED trial data restricting to participants > 65 years with prior HHF to align eligibility criteria more closely with the RWE study. We compared HRs from the trial and RWE study for the main outcomes. Among 53,393 pairs of PS-matched Medicare beneficiaries, the HD vaccine group showed lower risk of the primary composite outcome (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.95-0.98) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.91-0.95), and similar risk of cardiopulmonary hospitalization (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-1.00), compared with SD. The RWE and trial results were closely concordant after the trial population was limited to participants > 65 years with prior HHF: trial-based results for the primary composite outcome (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.89-1.17), all-cause mortality (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.72-1.16), and cardiopulmonary hospitalization (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.88-1.18). Although similar to the main trial results, the RWE was closer to the results from trial participants with aligned eligibility criteria. This study affirms the importance of considering different distributions of baseline patient characteristics when comparing trial findings to RWE.

Comparative Cardiovascular Effectiveness and Safety of SGLT-2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and DPP-4 Inhibitors According to Frailty in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the comparative cardiovascular effectiveness and safety of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4is) in older adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) across different frailty strata.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We performed three 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort studies, each stratified by three frailty strata, using data from Medicare beneficiaries (2013-2019) with T2D who initiated SGLT-2is, GLP-1RAs, or DPP-4is. In time-to-event analyses, we assessed the primary cardiovascular effectiveness composite outcome of acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcome was a composite of severe adverse events that have been linked to SGLT-2i or GLP-1RA use.

RESULTS

Compared with DPP-4is, the overall hazard ratio (HR) for the primary effectiveness outcome associated with SGLT-2is (n = 120,202 matched pairs) was 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75), corresponding to an incidence rate difference (IRD) of -13.35 (95% CI -15.06 to -11.64). IRD ranged from -6.74 (95% CI -8.61 to -4.87) in nonfrail to -27.24 (95% CI -41.64 to -12.84) in frail people (P for interaction < 0.01). Consistent benefits were observed for GLP-1RAs compared with DPP-4is (n = 113,864), with an overall HR of 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) and an IRD of -15.49 (95% CI -17.46 to -13.52). IRD in the lowest frailty stratum was -7.02 (95% CI -9.23 to -4.81) and -25.88 (95% CI -38.30 to -13.46) in the highest (P for interaction < 0.01). Results for SGLT-2is versus GLP-1RAs (n = 89,865) were comparable. Severe adverse events were not more frequent with SGLT-2is or GLP-1RAs than DPP-4is.

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs safely improved cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality, with the largest absolute benefits among frail people.

The IMPACT of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Prescription Drug Use in Patients with Psoriasis Vulgaris in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Real-world evidence (RWE) data is increasingly important to generate rapid insights to effectively manage patient populations. Disruptions like the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may negatively impact the choice of medications used for managing chronic diseases such as psoriasis (PSO). Here, we explored the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sales volumes of treatment guideline-based PSO medication in Germany.

METHODS

Patient-level pharmacy dispensing data from the Permea platform, covering approximately 44% of all community pharmacy dispensing in Germany, were analysed from 2019 through to 2021. Patient demographics and PSO indicated medication sales were assessed specifically before and during the pandemic in Germany.

RESULTS

We included 6,865,852 sold PSO related drugs from April 2019 to March 2021. Medication sales increased during the pandemic compared with before the pandemic for treatment classes of first-line biological and second-line drugs. The increase was observed across all age groups, but monthly variations could not be detected. Furthermore, we observed increased sales in first-line biological and second-line medications when comparing low to high COVID-19 incidence state.

CONCLUSION

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic the PSO indicated medication sales increased for first-line biological and second-line treatment. This shows that despite the pandemic impact, there continues to be an increase in sales volume for biologics. Only German federal states with intermittently very high COVID-19 incidences show a stagnation in sales volume. The reasons for this need to be investigated in further studies to possibly gain a better understanding of the concerns and uncertainties of patients with PSO.

Concepts of Designing and Implementing Pharmacoepidemiology Studies on the Safety of Systemic Treatments in Dermatology Practice

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and clinical guidelines use evidence from pharmacoepidemiology studies to inform prescribing decisions and fill evidence gaps left by randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The long-term safety and infrequent adverse reactions are not well-understood when RCTs are short and involve few patients, as is the case for most systemic immunomodulating drugs in dermatology. A better understanding of the design and implementation of pharmacoepidemiology studies will help practitioners assess the accuracy of etiologic findings and use them with confidence in clinical practice. Conducting pharmacoepidemiology studies follows a structured approach, which we discuss in this article: (i) a design layer connects the research question with the appropriate study design, and considering which hypothetical RCT one ideally would want to conduct reduces inadvertent investigator errors; (ii) a measurement layer transforms longitudinal patient-level data into variables that identify the study population, patient characteristics, treatment, and outcomes; and (iii) the analysis focuses on the causal treatment effect estimation. The review and interpretation of pharmacoepidemiology studies should consider issues beyond a typical review of RCTs, chiefly the lack of baseline randomization and the use of secondary data. Well-designed and well-conducted pharmacoepidemiologic studies complement dermatology practice with critical information on prescribing systemic medications.

Predicting Treatment Effects of a New-to-Market Drug in Clinical Practice Based on Phase III Randomized Trial Results

Trial results may not be generalizable to target populations treated in clinical practice with different distributions of baseline characteristics that modify the treatment effect. We used outcome models developed with trial data to predict treatment effects in Medicare populations. We used data from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy trial (RE-LY), which investigated the effect of dabigatran vs. warfarin on stroke or systemic embolism (stroke/SE) among patients with atrial fibrillation. We developed outcome models by fitting proportional hazards models in trial data. Target populations were trial-eligible Medicare beneficiaries who initiated dabigatran or warfarin in 2010-2011 ("early") and 2010-2017 ("extended"). We predicted 2-year risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences (RDs) for stroke/SE, major bleeding, and all-cause death in the Medicare populations using the observed baseline characteristics. The trial and early target populations had similar mean (SD) CHADS2 scores (2.15 (SD 1.13) vs. 2.15 (SD 0.91)) but different mean ages (71 vs. 79 years). Compared with RE-LY, the early Medicare population had similar predicted benefit of dabigatran vs. warfarin for stroke/SE (trial RR = 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.50 to 0.76 and RD = -1.37%, -1.96% to -0.77%, Medicare RR = 0.73, 0.65 to 0.82 and RD = -0.92%, -1.26% to -0.59%) and risks for major bleeding and all-cause death. The time-extended target population showed similar results. Outcome model-based prediction facilitates estimating the average treatment effects of a drug in different target populations when treatment and outcome data are unreliable or unavailable. The predicted effects may inform payers' coverage decisions for patients, especially shortly after a drug's launch when observational data are scarce.

Development of the TrAnsparent ReportinG of observational studies Emulating a Target trial (TARGET) guideline

BACKGROUND

Observational studies are increasingly used to inform health decision-making when randomised trials are not feasible, ethical or timely. The target trial approach provides a framework to help minimise common biases in observational studies that aim to estimate the causal effect of interventions. Incomplete reporting of studies using the target trial framework limits the ability for clinicians, researchers, patients and other decision-makers to appraise, synthesise and interpret findings to inform clinical and public health practice and policy. This paper describes the methods that we will use to develop the TrAnsparent ReportinG of observational studies Emulating a Target trial (TARGET) reporting guideline.

METHODS/DESIGN

The TARGET reporting guideline will be developed in five stages following recommended guidance. The first stage will identify target trial reporting practices by systematically reviewing published studies that explicitly emulated a target trial. The second stage will identify and refine items to be considered for inclusion in the TARGET guideline by consulting content experts using sequential online surveys. The third stage will prioritise and consolidate key items to be included in the TARGET guideline at an in-person consensus meeting of TARGET investigators. The fourth stage will produce and pilot-test both the TARGET guideline and explanation and elaboration document with relevant stakeholders. The fifth stage will disseminate the TARGET guideline and resources via journals, conferences and courses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for the survey has been attained (HC220536). The TARGET guideline will be disseminated widely in partnership with stakeholders to maximise adoption and improve reporting of these studies.

Reporting of Observational Studies Explicitly Aiming to Emulate Randomized Trials: A Systematic Review

Importance

Observational (nonexperimental) studies that aim to emulate a randomized trial (ie, the target trial) are increasingly informing medical and policy decision-making, but it is unclear how these studies are reported in the literature. Consistent reporting is essential for quality appraisal, evidence synthesis, and translation of evidence to policy and practice.

Objective

To assess the reporting of observational studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial.

Evidence Review

We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for observational studies published between March 2012 and October 2022 that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial of a health or medical intervention. Two reviewers double-screened and -extracted data on study characteristics, key predefined components of the target trial protocol and its emulation (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, treatment assignment, outcome[s], follow-up, causal contrast[s], and analysis plan), and other items related to the target trial emulation.

Findings

A total of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial were included. These studies included 26 subfields of medicine, and 168 (84%) were published from January 2020 to October 2022. The aim to emulate a target trial was explicit in 70 study titles (35%). Forty-three studies (22%) reported use of a published reporting guideline (eg, Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology). Eighty-five studies (43%) did not describe all key items of how the target trial was emulated and 113 (57%) did not describe the protocol of the target trial and its emulation.

Conclusion and Relevance

In this systematic review of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial, reporting of how the target trial was emulated was inconsistent. A reporting guideline for studies explicitly aiming to emulate a target trial may improve the reporting of the target trial protocols and other aspects of these emulation attempts.

DESIGN DIFFERENCES EXPLAIN VARIATION IN RESULTS BETWEEN RANDOMIZED TRIALS AND THEIR NON-RANDOMIZED EMULATIONS

Objectives

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered a standard for evidence on the efficacy of medical treatments, non-randomized real-world evidence (RWE) studies using data from health insurance claims or electronic health records can provide important complementary evidence. The use of RWE to inform decision-making has been questioned because of concerns regarding confounding in non-randomized studies and the use of secondary data. RCT-DUPLICATE was a demonstration project that emulated the design of 32 RCTs with non-randomized RWE studies. We sought to explore how emulation differences relate to variation in results between the RCT-RWE study pairs.

Methods

We include all RCT-RWE study pairs from RCT-DUPLICATE where the measure of effect was a hazard ratio and use exploratory meta-regression methods to explain differences and variation in the effect sizes between the results from the RCT and the RWE study. The considered explanatory variables are related to design and population differences.

Results

Most of the observed variation in effect estimates between RCT-RWE study pairs in this sample could be explained by three emulation differences in the meta-regression model: (i) in-hospital start of treatment (not observed in claims data), (ii) discontinuation of certain baseline therapies at randomization (not part of clinical practice), (iii) delayed onset of drug effects (missed by short medication persistence in clinical practice).

Conclusions

This analysis suggests that a substantial proportion of the observed variation between results from RCTs and RWE studies can be attributed to design emulation differences. (238 words).

Real-World Tumor Response of Palbociclib in Combination With an Aromatase Inhibitor as First-Line Therapy in Pre/Perimenopausal Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Limited real-world data exist regarding the efficacy of palbociclib in combination with endocrine therapy in pre/perimenopausal women with metastatic breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare real-world tumor responses among pre/perimenopausal women who initiated palbociclib plus an aromatase inhibitor (AI) or AI monotherapy as first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study (NCT05012644) used electronic health record data from The US Oncology Network. Tumor responses were determined based on treating clinicians' assessments of radiologic evidence for changes in disease burden. Normalized inverse probability treatment weighting was used to balance baseline characteristics between treatment cohorts.

RESULTS

Of 196 pre/perimenopausal women, 116 and 80 were in the palbociclib plus AI cohort and AI cohort, respectively. Real-world response rates (complete or partial response) were 52.1% and 46.2%, respectively (odds ratio, 1.27 [95% confidence interval 0.72‒2.24]). Among patients with one or more tumor assessments on treatment, real-world response rates were 60.0% in the palbociclib plus AI cohort (n = 103) and 49.9% in the AI cohort (n = 71; odds ratio, 1.51 [95% confidence interval 0.82‒2.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

This real-world analysis suggests that pre/perimenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer appear more likely to respond to palbociclib plus AI versus AI alone as first-line therapy, which may support the combination as a standard-of-care treatment for this patient population.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors vs. sitagliptin in heart failure and type 2 diabetes: an observational cohort study

AIMS

The effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in patients with heart failure (HF) in routine clinical practice is not extensively studied. This study aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of SGLT2i vs. sitagliptin in older adults with HF and type 2 diabetes and to investigate whether there were any differences between agents within the SGLT2i class or for reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using Medicare claims data (April 2013 to December 2019), 16 253 SGLT2i initiators vs. 43 352 initiators of sitagliptin aged ≥65 years with type 2 diabetes and HF were included. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, hospitalization for HF or urgent visit requiring intravenous diuretics; secondary outcomes included its individual components. Propensity score fine stratification weighted Cox regression was used to adjust for 100 pre-exposure characteristics. Mean age was 74 years; 49.8% were women. Initiation of SGLT2i vs. sitagliptin was associated with a lower risk of the primary composite outcome [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.77]. The adjusted HRs were 0.70 (0.63-0.78) for all-cause mortality, 0.64 (0.58-0.70) for hospitalization for HF, and 0.77 (0.69-0.86) for urgent visit requiring intravenous diuretics. Similar associations with the primary composite outcome were observed for all three agents within the SGLT2i class, for reduced and preserved ejection fraction, and subgroups based on demographics, comorbidities, and other HF treatments. Bias-calibrated HRs for the primary endpoint using negative and positive control outcomes ranged between 0.81 and 0.89, suggesting that the observed benefit could not be fully explained by residual confounding.

CONCLUSION

In routine US clinical practice, SGLT2i demonstrated robust clinical effectiveness in older adults with HF and type 2 diabetes compared with sitagliptin, with no evidence of heterogeneity across the SGLT2i class or across ejection fraction.

Use patterns of systemic immunomodulators in the United States before and after dupilumab approval in adults with atopic dermatitis

PURPOSE

The patterns of dupilumab use, the first systemic drug approved for the treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD), is not well understood in the context of off-label systemic medications.

OBJECTIVE

To describe patterns of prescribing, switching and discontinuing systemic AD drugs, before and after the approval of dupilumab and understand variables associated with dupilumab prescription.

METHODS

Using longitudinal claims data, we identified patients with AD who initiated a systemic therapy (dupilumab, cyclosporine, methotrexate, azathioprine, mycophenolate) from March 2015 to February 2021, with a washout period of 1 year. We used Sankey plots to visualize longitudinal patterns of use at 3, 6, and 12 months and logistic regression to determine associates of dupilumab prescription.

RESULTS

The number of patients starting systemic treatment increased from 319 before dupilumab approval to 1358 after. Dupilumab use increased from 72% to 84%. In 2019-2020, 36% of patients discontinued systemic treatment within a year compared to 62% in 2015-2016. 92% of patients who started dupilumab in 2020-2021 had received no other systemic treatment before. Patients <60 years and those who used steroid-sparing topical treatments were more likely to receive dupilumab.

CONCLUSION

Among new users of a systemic treatment for AD, dupilumab was most used treatment by far.

Emulation of Randomized Clinical Trials With Nonrandomized Database Analyses: Results of 32 Clinical Trials

Importance

Nonrandomized studies using insurance claims databases can be analyzed to produce real-world evidence on the effectiveness of medical products. Given the lack of baseline randomization and measurement issues, concerns exist about whether such studies produce unbiased treatment effect estimates.

Objective

To emulate the design of 30 completed and 2 ongoing randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of medications with database studies using observational analogues of the RCT design parameters (population, intervention, comparator, outcome, time [PICOT]) and to quantify agreement in RCT-database study pairs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

New-user cohort studies with propensity score matching using 3 US claims databases (Optum Clinformatics, MarketScan, and Medicare). Inclusion-exclusion criteria for each database study were prespecified to emulate the corresponding RCT. RCTs were explicitly selected based on feasibility, including power, key confounders, and end points more likely to be emulated with real-world data. All 32 protocols were registered on ClinicalTrials.gov before conducting analyses. Emulations were conducted from 2017 through 2022.

Exposures

Therapies for multiple clinical conditions were included.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Database study emulations focused on the primary outcome of the corresponding RCT. Findings of database studies were compared with RCTs using predefined metrics, including Pearson correlation coefficients and binary metrics based on statistical significance agreement, estimate agreement, and standardized difference.

Results

In these highly selected RCTs, the overall observed agreement between the RCT and the database emulation results was a Pearson correlation of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.64-0.91), with 75% meeting statistical significance, 66% estimate agreement, and 75% standardized difference agreement. In a post hoc analysis limited to 16 RCTs with closer emulation of trial design and measurements, concordance was higher (Pearson r, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.79-0.97; 94% meeting statistical significance, 88% estimate agreement, 88% standardized difference agreement). Weaker concordance occurred among 16 RCTs for which close emulation of certain design elements that define the research question (PICOT) with data from insurance claims was not possible (Pearson r, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.00-0.83; 56% meeting statistical significance, 50% estimate agreement, 69% standardized difference agreement).

Conclusions and Relevance

Real-world evidence studies can reach similar conclusions as RCTs when design and measurements can be closely emulated, but this may be difficult to achieve. Concordance in results varied depending on the agreement metric. Emulation differences, chance, and residual confounding can contribute to divergence in results and are difficult to disentangle.

Effectiveness research in oncology with electronic health record data: A retrospective cohort study emulating the PALOMA-2 trial

PURPOSE

Oncology electronic health record (EHR) databases have increased in quality and availability over the past decade, yet it remains unclear whether these clinical practice data can be used to conduct reliable comparative effectiveness studies. We sought to emulate a clinical trial with EHR data in the advanced breast cancer population and compare our results against the trial.

METHODS

This cohort study used EHR data from US oncology practices. All elements of the study were defined to mimic the PALOMA-2 trial as closely as possible. Patients with hormone-positive, HER-2 negative metastatic breast cancer with no prior treatment for metastatic disease were included. Patients initiating palbociclib and letrozole on the same day following the earliest record of metastasis were compared to those initiating letrozole only. The primary associational measure was the conditional hazard ratio for time-to-next treatment (TTNT). TTNT is well-measured in our data source and amenable for calibration against the randomized study results of the PALOMA-2 trial. We used multiple imputation for several patient characteristics with missing values.

RESULTS

There were 3836 study-eligible women with advanced breast cancer. The hazard ratio for TTNT in the observational study (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.56-0.68) was closely aligned with that of the randomized trial (HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.52-0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Under our assumptions on missing data and comparability of the two study populations, results from our non-randomized study closely matched that of the randomized trial. Further studies are needed to determine whether EHR data can yield reliable conclusions on treatment effects in oncology.

Scalable Feature Engineering from Electronic Free Text Notes to Supplement Confounding Adjustment of Claims-Based Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies

Natural language processing (NLP) tools turn free-text notes (FTNs) from electronic health records (EHRs) into data features that can supplement confounding adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. However, current applications are difficult to scale. We used unsupervised NLP to generate high-dimensional feature spaces from FTNs to improve prediction of drug exposure and outcomes compared with claims-based analyses. We linked Medicare claims with EHR data to generate three cohort studies comparing different classes of medications on the risk of various clinical outcomes. We used "bag-of-words" to generate features for the top 20,000 most prevalent terms from FTNs. We compared machine learning (ML) prediction algorithms using different sets of candidate predictors: Set1 (39 researcher-specified variables), Set2 (Set1 + ML-selected claims codes), and Set3 (Set1 + ML-selected NLP-generated features), vs. Set4 (Set1 + 2 + 3). When modeling treatment choice, we observed a consistent pattern across the examples: ML models utilizing Set4 performed best followed by Set2, Set3, then Set1. When modeling the outcome risk, there was little to no improvement beyond models based on Set1. Supplementing claims data with NLP-generated features from free text notes improved prediction of prescribing choices but had little or no improvement on clinical risk prediction. These findings have implications for strategies to improve confounding using EHR data in pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Scores in Cirrhosis, Using Administrative Datasets

Background

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts disease severity and mortality in cirrhosis. To improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative databases lacking laboratory data, we aimed to develop and externally validate claims-based MELD prediction models, using claims data linked to electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

We included adults with established cirrhosis in two Medicare-linked EHR networks (training and internal validation; 2007-2017), and a Medicaid-linked EHR network (external validation; 2000-2014). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 5-fold cross-validation, we selected among 146 investigator-specified variables to develop models for predicting continuous MELD and relevant MELD categories (MELD<10, MELD≥15 and MELD≥20), with observed MELD calculated from laboratory data. Regression coefficients for each model were applied to the validation sets to predict patient-level MELD and assess model performance.

Results

We identified 4501 patients in the Medicare training set (mean age 75.1 years, 18.5% female, mean MELD=13.0), and 2435 patients in the Medicare validation set (mean age: 74.3 years, 31.7% female, mean MELD=12.3). Our final model for predicting continuous MELD included 112 variables, explaining 58% of observed MELD variability; in the Medicare validation set, the area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for MELD<10 and MELD≥15 were 0.84 and 0.90, respectively; the AUC for the model predicting MELD≥20 (using 27 variables) was 0.93. Overall, these models correctly classified 77% of patients with MELD<10 (95% CI=0.75-0.78), 85% of patients with MELD≥15 (95% CI=0.84-0.87), and 87% of patients with MELD≥20 (95% CI=0.86-0.88). Results were consistent in the external validation set (n=2240).

Conclusion

Our MELD prediction tools can be used to improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative datasets lacking laboratory data.

Risk of Infection in Children With Psoriasis Receiving Treatment With Ustekinumab, Etanercept, or Methotrexate Before and After Labeling Expansion

Importance

Psoriasis in children is increasingly treated with systemic medications, yet their risk of serious infection is not well characterized in clinical practice. Pediatric clinical trials for these medications were often small and placebo controlled.

Objective

To estimate the 6-month rate of infections among children with psoriasis who started treatment with ustekinumab, etanercept, or methotrexate.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used insurance claims data from clinical practices across the US on children aged 17 years or younger with psoriasis who were receiving treatment with a topical medication for psoriasis and started new treatment with ustekinumab, etanercept, or methotrexate. The analysis was stratified by the time before pediatric labeling (2009-2015) and after pediatric approval (2016-2021). Patient follow-up started 1 day after initiating treatment and ended at 6 months.

Exposures

New treatment with ustekinumab, etanercept, and methotrexate.

Main Outcomes and Measures

During follow-up, the frequency of inpatient serious infections and outpatient infections requiring treatment was compared. Event rates and rate ratios were estimated after propensity score decile stratification.

Results

After exclusions, we identified 2338 patients (1368 girls [57.8%]) who initiated new treatment with a targeted immunomodulating agent. In all, 379 patients started treatment with ustekinumab, 779 patients started treatment with etanercept, and 1180 patients started treatment with methotrexate from 2009 through 2021. The propensity score-adjusted incidence rate of serious infection was 18.4 per 1000 person-years (3 events) for ustekinumab users, 25.6 per 1000 person-years (9 events) for etanercept users, and 14.9 per 1000 person-years (8 events) for methotrexate users. The adjusted rate of outpatient infections was 254.9 per 1000 person-years (39 events) for ustekinumab users, 435.7 per 1000 person-years (139 events) for etanercept users, and 433.6 per 1000 person-years (209 events) for methotrexate users. The adjusted rate ratio of outpatient infections was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.41-0.83) for ustekinumab vs etanercept, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.48-0.91) for ustekinumab vs methotrexate, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.75-1.21) for etanercept vs methotrexate. Rate ratios were similar during the off-label use era and after pediatric labeling.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among children with psoriasis who started treatment with immunomodulating agents, serious infections were infrequent. This cohort study suggests that there was no increase in the risk of outpatient infections for children who started treatment with ustekinumab compared with etanercept or methotrexate.

Prescribing Trends of Oral Anticoagulants in US Patients With Cirrhosis and Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Background Many patients with cirrhosis have concurrent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data are lacking regarding recent oral anticoagulant (OAC) usage trends among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF. Methods and Results Using MarketScan claims data (2012-2019), we identified patients with cirrhosis and NVAF eligible for OACs (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 [men] or ≥3 [women]). We calculated the yearly proportion of patients prescribed a direct OAC (DOAC), warfarin, or no OAC. We stratified by high-risk features (decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease, or end-stage renal disease). Among 32 487 patients (mean age=71.6 years, 38.5% women, 15.1% with decompensated cirrhosis, mean CHA2DS2-VASc=4.2), 44.6% used OACs within 180 days of NVAF diagnosis, including DOACs (20.2%) or warfarin (24.4%). Compared with OAC nonusers, OAC users were less likely to have decompensated cirrhosis (18.6% versus 10.7%), thrombocytopenia (19.5% versus 12.5%), or chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease (15.5% versus 14.0%). Between 2012 and 2019, warfarin use decreased by 21.0% (32.0% to 11.0%), whereas DOAC use increased by 30.6% (7.4% to 38.0%), and among all DOACs between 2012 and 2019, apixaban was the most commonly prescribed (46.1%). Warfarin use decreased and DOAC use increased in all subgroups, including in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease, and across CHA2DS2-VASc categories. Among OAC users (2012-2019), DOAC use increased by 58.9% (18.7% to 77.6%). Among DOAC users, the greatest proportional increase was with apixaban (61.2%; P<0.001). Conclusions Among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF, DOAC use has increased substantially and surpassed warfarin, including in decompensated cirrhosis. Nevertheless, >55% of patients remain untreated, underscoring the need for clearer treatment guidance.

High-dimensional propensity scores for empirical covariate selection in secondary database studies: Planning, implementation, and reporting

Real-world evidence used for regulatory, payer, and clinical decision-making requires principled epidemiology in design and analysis, applying methods to minimize confounding given the lack of randomization. One technique to deal with potential confounding is propensity score (PS) analysis, which allows for the adjustment for measured preexposure covariates. Since its first publication in 2009, the high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) method has emerged as an approach that extends traditional PS covariate selection to include large numbers of covariates that may reduce confounding bias in the analysis of healthcare databases. hdPS is an automated, data-driven analytic approach for covariate selection that empirically identifies preexposure variables and proxies to include in the PS model. This article provides an overview of the hdPS approach and recommendations on the planning, implementation, and reporting of hdPS used for causal treatment-effect estimations in longitudinal healthcare databases. We supply a checklist with key considerations as a supportive decision tool to aid investigators in the implementation and transparent reporting of hdPS techniques, and to aid decision-makers unfamiliar with hdPS in the understanding and interpretation of studies employing this approach. This article is endorsed by the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology.

Strong instrumental variables biased propensity scores in comparative effectiveness research: A case study in oncology

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Some medications require specific medical procedures in the weeks before their start. Such procedures may meet the definition of instrumental variables (IVs). We examined how they may influence treatment effect estimation in propensity score (PS)-adjusted comparative studies, and how to remedy.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Different covariate assessment periods (CAPs) did and did not include the month preceding treatment start were used to compute PS in the French claims database (Sytème National des Données de Santé-SNDS), and 1:1 match patients with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer initiating abiraterone acetate or docetaxel. The 36-month survival was assessed.

RESULTS

Among 1, 213 docetaxel and 2, 442 abiraterone initiators, the PS distribution resulting from the CAP [-12; 0 months] distinctly separated populations (c = 0.93; 273 matched pairs). The CAPs [-12;-1 months] identified 765 pairs (c = 0.81). Strong docetaxel treatment predictors during the month before treatment start were implantable delivery systems (1% vs. 59%), which fulfilled IV conditions. The 36-month survival was not meaningfully different under the [-12; 0 months] CAP but differed by 10% points (38% vs. 28%) after excluding month -1.

CONCLUSION

In the setting of highly predictive pretreatment procedures, excluding the immediate pre-exposure time from the CAP will reduce the risk of including potential IVs in PS models and may reduce bias.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of hypothesis evaluating real-world evidence studies on treatment effects: A good practices report of a joint ISPE/ISPOR task force

PROBLEM

Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias.

WHAT WE DID

The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The overarching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility.

STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE

Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years.

CONCLUSION

The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

Longitudinal utilization of systemic immunomodulators before and after dupilumab approval in children with atopic dermatitis

In our cohort study, we sought to describe the utilization patterns of systemic immunomodulators in children with atopic dermatitis (AD) and how utilization changed after approval of dupilumab, the first systemic drug approved for the treatment of AD. Using US nationwide claims data, we identified children with AD who initiated a systemic therapy (dupilumab, cyclosporine, methotrexate, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil) from March 2015 to February 2021 and used Sankey plots to describe patterns of starting, switching, and discontinuing these drugs. Dupilumab use among children increased from 19.4% before approval in children to 88.3% after approval in 2019-20. Adherence to dupilumab may suggest better tolerance and improved outcomes in children with AD.

Comparative effectiveness of Empagliflozin in reducing the burden of recurrent cardiovascular hospitalizations among older adults with diabetes in routine clinical care

BACKGROUND

The effect of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on the total (first and recurrent) burden of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalizations, including hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of empagliflozin, an SGLT2i, on total CV hospitalizations among older adults with T2D.

METHODS

Using data from Medicare fee-for-service (08/2014-09/2017), we identified 1:1 propensity score-matched cohorts of patients with T2D initiating empagliflozin versus sitagliptin or empagliflozin versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), balancing >140 baseline covariates. We compared the risk of first and recurrent hospitalizations with any CV condition as the primary discharge diagnosis (ICD-9: 390-459; ICD-10: I00-I99), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), and myocardial infarctions (MI) or stroke. We estimated treatment effects based on the Ghosh-Lin semiparametric model for recurrent events as primary and joint frailty model as secondary analysis.

RESULTS

We included 11,429 matched-pairs of empagliflozin and sitagliptin initiators and 17,502 matched-pairs of empagliflozin and GLP1-RA initiators with an average age of 72 years. Empagliflozin was associated with a reduced risk of total CV hospitalizations (0.80 [0.69-0.93] vs sitagliptin; 0.88 [0.77-1.00] vs GLP-1RA) and total HHF (0.70 [0.51-0.98] vs sitagliptin; 0.76 [0.56-1.03] vs GLP1-RA) over a mean follow up of 6.3 months. No differences between treatments were observed for MI or stroke. Results were consistent for joint frailty models.

CONCLUSION

Empagliflozin, compared to sitagliptin or to a lesser extent GLP1-RA, was associated with a reduction in the burden of total CV hospitalizations and HHF in older patients with T2D.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors and the Short-term Risk of Bladder Cancer: An International Multisite Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, compared with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, are associated with an increased risk of early bladder cancer events.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a multisite, population-based, new-user, active comparator cohort study using the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Medicare fee-for-service, Optum's de-identifed Clinformatics Data Mart Database (CDM), and MarketScan Health databases from January 2013 through December 2020. We assembled two cohorts of adults with type 2 diabetes initiating 1) SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs and 2) SGLT2 inhibitors or DPP-4 inhibitors. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of incident bladder cancer. The models were weighted using propensity score fine stratification. Site-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects models.

RESULTS

SGLT2 inhibitor (n = 453,560) and GLP-1RA (n = 375,997) users had a median follow-up ranging from 1.5 to 2.2 years. Overall, SGLT2 inhibitors were not associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer compared with GLP-1RAs (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.00). Similarly, when compared with DPP-4 inhibitors (n = 853,186), SGLT2 inhibitors (n = 347,059) were not associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.91-1.09) over a median follow-up ranging from 1.6 to 2.6 years. Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to previous randomized controlled trials, these findings indicate that the use of SGLT2 inhibitors is not associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer compared with GLP-1RAs or DPP-4 inhibitors. This should provide reassurance on the short-term effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on bladder cancer incidence.

Understanding variation in the results of real-world evidence studies that seem to address the same question

OBJECTIVES

Multiple database studies on the same question, conducted by different investigators using different approaches or different data sources, can be considered sensitivity analyses for the same causal treatment effect question. We evaluated the contribution of alternative study design parameters and analysis choices to variation in estimates of the risk of major bleeding with dabigatran compared with warfarin.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We followed a 7-step process: (1) identify published studies asking the same question, (2) independently reproduce selected studies in the same data sources as the original authors, (3) contact original authors, (4) evaluate validity, (5) document critical study parameter specifications, (6) implement a designed matrix of variations in study parameters based on the original studies, and (7) evaluate contributors to variation in results.

RESULTS

Most variation remained unexplained (60-88%). Of the explained variation, two-thirds were related to data and population differences, and one-third were related to the use of alternative study design and analysis parameters. Among these, the most prominent were differences in outcome algorithms and criteria used to define follow-up.

CONCLUSION

When making policy decisions based on database study findings, it is important to evaluate the validity, consistency, and robustness of results to alternative design and analysis decisions.

Visualizations throughout pharmacoepidemiology study planning, implementation, and reporting

Transparency is increasingly promoted to instill trust in nonrandomized studies using real-world data. Graphics and data visualizations support transparency by aiding communication and understanding, and can inform study design and analysis decisions. However, other than graphical representation of a study design and flow diagrams (e.g., a Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials [CONSORT] like diagram), specific standards on how to maximize validity and transparency with visualization are needed. This paper provides guidance on how to use visualizations throughout the life cycle of a pharmacoepidemiology study-from initial study design to final report-to facilitate rationalized and transparent decision-making about study design and implementation, and clear communication of study findings. Our intent is to help researchers align their practices with current consensus statements on transparency.

Oncology Drug Effectiveness from Electronic Health Record Data Calibrated Against RCT Evidence: The PARSIFAL Trial Emulation

Background

The use of electronic health records (EHR) data to assess drug effectiveness in clinical oncology practice is of great interest to regulators, clinicians, and payers. However, the utility of EHR data in clinical effectiveness studies may be limited by missing data, unmeasured confounding, and imperfect outcome surveillance. This study sought to emulate and compare the results of a randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of palbociclib with fulvestrant vs letrozole in advanced breast cancer.

Methods

This was a cohort study using longitudinal EHR data derived from outpatient oncology practices in the United States. Eligibility criteria from the PARSIFAL trial were emulated as closely as possible. Patients were included if they had hormone-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor - 2 (HER-2) negative metastatic breast cancer and had no record of prior treatment for metastatic disease. Patients initiating first-line treatment with palbociclib and fulvestrant following their first record of metastasis were compared to those initiating palbociclib and letrozole on the same day. Treatments were ascertained by oncology medication ordering records in the data source. The primary outcome was death as recorded in the oncologists' EHR systems.

Results

There were 1886 eligible women in the study cohort. Although the 3-year survival was meaningfully lower in clinical practice (59%) compared to the randomized trial (78%), the relative effect size was a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.07 (95% CI: 0.86-1.35), similar to the randomized trial (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.68-1.48).

Conclusion

Despite common challenges encountered in EHR-based studies, it is possible to achieve similar conclusions to emulated randomized trials with the application of analytic approaches that address missing data, confounding, and selection bias. This is a promising finding in light of other emulations and ongoing efforts to improve data from clinical practice and causal analytics.

No association between initiation of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors and risk of incident Alzheimer's disease and related dementia: results from the Drug Repurposing for Effective Alzheimer's Medicines study

We evaluated the hypothesis that phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors, including sildenafil and tadalafil, may be associated with reduced incidence of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia using a patient-level cohort study of Medicare claims and cell culture-based phenotypic assays. We compared incidence of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia after phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor initiation versus endothelin receptor antagonist initiation among patients with pulmonary hypertension after controlling for 76 confounding variables through propensity score matching. Across four separate analytic approaches designed to address specific types of biases including informative censoring, reverse causality, and outcome misclassification, we observed no evidence for a reduced risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia with phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors;hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.99 (0.69-1.43), 1.00 (0.71-1.42), 0.67 (0.43-1.06), and 1.15 (0.57-2.34). We also did not observe evidence that sildenafil ameliorated molecular abnormalities relevant to Alzheimer's disease in most cell culture-based phenotypic assays. These results do not provide support to the hypothesis that phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors are promising repurposing candidates for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia.

Comparative Effectiveness of Empagliflozin vs Liraglutide or Sitagliptin in Older Adults With Diverse Patient Characteristics

IMPORTANCE

Limited evidence is available on the comparative effectiveness of empagliflozin vs alternative second-line glucose-lowering agents in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) receiving routine care who have a broad spectrum of cardiorenal risk.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of empagliflozin with cardiovascular outcomes relative to liraglutide and sitagliptin, stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective comparative effectiveness cohort study used deidentified Medicare claims data from August 1, 2014, to September 30, 2018, with follow-up from drug initiation until treatment changes, death, or gap in Medicare enrollment (>30 days). Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to April 30, 2022. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries older than 65 years with T2D were included. A total of 45 788 patients (22 894 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or liraglutide) were included in cohort 1, and 45 624 patients (22 812 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or sitagliptin) were included in cohort 2.

EXPOSURES

Empagliflozin vs liraglutide (cohort 1) or empagliflozin vs sitagliptin (cohort 2).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were (1) modified major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality, and (2) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years were estimated, adjusting for 143 baseline covariates using 1:1 propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Among 45 788 patients in cohort 1, the mean (SD) age was 71.9 (5.1) years; 23 396 patients (51.1%) were female, 22 392 (48.9%) were male, and 38 049 (83.1%) were White. Among 45 624 patients in cohort 2, the mean (SD) age was 72.1 (5.1) years; 21 418 patients (46.9%) were female, 24 206 (53.1%) were male, and 37 814 (82.9%) were White. Relative to patients initiating liraglutide, those initiating empagliflozin had a similar risk of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.79-1.03) and a reduced risk of HHF (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82). Across subgroups, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of the modified MACE outcome in patients with a history of ASCVD (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98) and HF (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00) compared with liraglutide, and potential heterogeneity in estimates was observed by sex (male: HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.71-1.01]; female: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.94-1.42]; P = .02 for homogeneity). However, reductions in the risk of HHF were observed across most subgroups (eg, ASCVD: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]; HF: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.49-0.88]). Compared with sitagliptin, empagliflozin was associated with reduced risks of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.60-0.77) and HHF (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.36-0.56), which were consistent across all subgroups. Absolute benefits of empagliflozin vs sitagliptin were larger in patients with a history of ASCVD (modified MACE: RD, -17.6 [95% CI, -24.9 to -10.4]; HHF: RD, -16.7 [95% CI, -21.7 to -11.9]), HF (modified MACE: RD, -41.1 [95% CI, -59.9 to -22.6]; HHF: RD, -50.4 [95% CI, -67.5 to -33.9]), or CKD (modified MACE: RD, -26.7 [95% CI, -41.3 to -12.3]; HHF: RD, -31.9 [95% CI, -43.5 to -20.8]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this comparative effectiveness study of older adults, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of HHF (relative to both liraglutide and sitagliptin) and the modified MACE outcome (relative to sitagliptin), with larger absolute benefits in patients with established cardiorenal diseases. These findings suggest that older adults with T2D might benefit more from empagliflozin vs liraglutide or sitagliptin with respect to the risk of HHF; with respect to the risk of MACEs, empagliflozin might be preferable to liraglutide only in patients with cardiovascular disease history and to sitagliptin across all patient subgroups.

Obesity as a modifier of the cardiovascular effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To assess the association between the use of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2i) and cardiovascular outcomes and death as a function of obesity among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This new-user, active-comparator cohort study used U.K.'s Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics repository and Office for National Statistics. The cohort included 34,128 new-users of SGLT2i matched 1:1 to 34,128 new-users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) on body mass index and propensity score. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), overall and in body mass index (BMI) categories (≤24.9 kg/m², 25.0-29.9 kg/m², 30.0-39.9 kg/m², ≥40 kg/m²). Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality and hospitalization for heart failure.

RESULTS

SGLT2i were associated with a decreased risk of MACE (HR: 0.78, 95 %CI: 0.69-0.88) compared to DPP-4i. This decreased risk was most pronounced among obese and severely obese patients (HR: 0.77, 95 %CI: 0.66-0.91; HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49-0.91, respectively) but not among overweight patients (HR: 0.94, 95 %CI: 0.73-1.22). Similar patterns were observed for cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and heart failure.

CONCLUSION

Compared with DPP-4i, the cardioprotective effect associated with SGLT2i is stronger among patients with higher BMI.