External Control Arms in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Using Clinical Trial and Real-World Data Sources

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease for which novel therapies are needed. External controls (ECs) could enhance IPF trial efficiency, but the direct comparability of ECs versus concurrent controls is unknown. Objectives: To develop IPF ECs by fit-for-purpose data standards to historical randomized clinical trial (RCT), multicenter registry (Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry), and electronic health record (EHR) data and to evaluate endpoint comparability among ECs and the phase II RCT of BMS-986020. Methods: After data curation, the rate of change in FVC from baseline to 26 weeks among participants receiving BMS-986020 600 mg twice daily was compared with the BMS-placebo arm and ECs using mixed-effects models with inverse probability weights. Measurements and Main Results: At 26 weeks, the rates of change in FVC were -32.71 ml for BMS-986020 and -130.09 ml for BMS-placebo (difference, 97.4 ml; 95% confidence interval [CI], 24.6-170.2), replicating the original BMS-986020 RCT. RCT ECs showed treatment effect point estimates within the 95% CI of the original BMS-986020 RCT. Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry ECs and EHR ECs experienced a slower rate of FVC decline compared with the BMS-placebo arm, resulting in treatment-effect point estimates outside of the 95% CI of the original BMS-986020 RCT. Conclusions: IPF ECs generated from historical RCT placebo arms result in comparable primary treatment effects to that of the original clinical trial, whereas ECs from real-world data sources, including registry or EHR data, do not. RCT ECs may serve as a potentially useful supplement to future IPF RCTs.

Health Status and Clinical Outcomes in Older Adults With Chronic Coronary Disease: The ISCHEMIA Trial

BACKGROUND

Whether initial invasive management in older vs younger adults with chronic coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia improves health status or clinical outcomes is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to examine the impact of age on health status and clinical outcomes with invasive vs conservative management in the ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches) trial.

METHODS

One-year angina-specific health status was assessed with the 7-item Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ) (score range 0-100; higher scores indicate better health status). Cox proportional hazards models estimated the treatment effect of invasive vs conservative management as a function of age on the composite clinical outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for resuscitated cardiac arrest, unstable angina, or heart failure.

RESULTS

Among 4,617 participants, 2,239 (48.5%) were aged <65 years, 1,713 (37.1%) were aged 65 to 74 years, and 665 (14.4%) were aged ≥75 years. Baseline SAQ summary scores were lower in participants aged <65 years. Fully adjusted differences in 1-year SAQ summary scores (invasive minus conservative) were 4.90 (95% CI: 3.56-6.24) at age 55 years, 3.48 (95% CI: 2.40-4.57) at age 65 years, and 2.13 (95% CI: 0.75-3.51) at age 75 years (Pinteraction = 0.008). Improvement in SAQ Angina Frequency was less dependent on age (Pinteraction = 0.08). There were no age differences between invasive vs conservative management on the composite clinical outcome (Pinteraction = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients with chronic coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia had consistent improvement in angina frequency but less improvement in angina-related health status with invasive management compared with younger patients. Invasive management was not associated with improved clinical outcomes in older or younger patients. (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches [ISCHEMIA]; NCT01471522).

Time-dependent event accumulation in a cardiovascular outcome trial of patients with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS).

METHODS

Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes.

RESULTS

Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial.

CONCLUSIONS

In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205.

Development and validation of a model to predict cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Background

Among individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is common and confers increased risk for morbidity and mortality. Differentiating risk is key to optimize efficiency of treatment selection. Our objective was to develop and validate a model to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) comprising the first event of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke for individuals with both T2DM and ASCVD.

Methods

Using data from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), we used Cox proportional hazards models to predict MACE among participants with T2DM and ASCVD. All baseline covariates collected in the trial were considered for inclusion, although some were excluded immediately because of large missingness or collinearity. A full model was developed using stepwise selection in each of 25 imputed datasets, and comprised candidate variables selected in 20 of the 25 datasets. A parsimonious model with a maximum of 10 degrees of freedom was created using Cox models with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), where the adjusted R-square was used as criterion for selection. The model was then externally validated among a cohort of participants with similar criteria in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial. Discrimination of both models was assessed using Harrell’s C-index and model calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino statistic based on 4-year event rates.

Results

Overall, 1491 (10.2%) of 14,671 participants in TECOS and 130 (9.3%) in the ACCORD validation cohort (n = 1404) had MACE over 3 years’ median follow-up. The final model included 9 characteristics (prior stroke, age, chronic kidney disease, prior MI, sex, heart failure, insulin use, atrial fibrillation, and microvascular complications). The model had moderate discrimination in both the internal and external validation samples (C-index = 0.65 and 0.61, respectively). The model was well calibrated across the risk spectrum—from a cumulative MACE rate of 6% at 4 years in the lowest risk quintile to 26% in the highest risk quintile.

Conclusion

Among patients with T2DM and prevalent ASCVD, this 9-factor risk model can quantify the risk of future ASCVD complications and inform decision making for treatments and intensity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01603-8.

Clinical and Quality-of-Life Outcomes Following Invasive vs Conservative Treatment of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease Across the Spectrum of Kidney Function

Importance

Prior trials of invasive vs conservative management of chronic coronary disease (CCD) have not enrolled patients with severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). As such, outcomes across kidney function are not well characterized.

Objectives

To evaluate clinical and quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes across the spectrum of CKD following conservative and invasive treatment strategies.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Participants from the International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches (ISCHEMIA) and ISCHEMIA-Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) trials were categorized by CKD stage: stage 1 (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] 90 mL/min/1.73m2 or greater), stage 2 (eGFR 60-89 mL/min/1.73m2), stage 3 (eGFR 30-59 mL/min/1.73m2), stage 4 (eGFR 15-29 mL/min/1.73m2), or stage 5 (eGFR less than 15 mL/min/1.73m2 or receiving dialysis). Enrollment took place from July 26, 2012, through January 31, 2018, with a median follow-up of 3.1 years. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to May 2021.

Interventions

Initial invasive management of coronary angiography and revascularization with guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) vs initial conservative management of GDMT alone.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary clinical outcome was a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). The primary QoL outcome was the Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ) summary score.

Results

Among the 5956 participants included in this analysis (mean [SD] age, 64 [10] years; 1410 [24%] female and 4546 [76%] male), 1889 (32%), 2551 (43%), 738 (12%), 311 (5%), and 467 (8%) were in CKD stages 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. By self-report, 18 participants (<1%) were American Indian or Alaska Native; 1676 (29%), Asian; 267 (5%), Black; 861 (16%), Hispanic or Latino; 18 (<1%), Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; 3884 (66%), White; and 13 (<1%), multiple races or ethnicities. There was a monotonic increase in risk of the primary composite end point (3-year rates, 9.52%, 10.72%, 18.42%, 34.21%, and 38.01% respectively), death, cardiovascular death, MI, and stroke in individuals with higher CKD stages. Invasive management was associated with an increase in stroke (3-year event rate difference, 1%; 95% CI, 0.3 to 1.7) and procedural MI (1.6%; 95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3) and a decrease in spontaneous MI (-2.5%; 95% CI, -3.9 to -1.1) with no difference in other outcomes; the effect was similar across CKD stages. There was heterogeneity of treatment effect for QoL outcomes such that invasive management was associated with an improvement in angina-related QoL in individuals with CKD stages 1 to 3 and not in those with CKD stages 4 to 5.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among participants with CCD, event rates were inversely proportional to kidney function. Invasive management was associated with an increase in stroke and procedural MI and a reduced risk in spontaneous MI, and the effect was similar across CKD stages with no difference in other outcomes, including death. The benefit for QoL with invasive management was not observed in individuals with poorer kidney function.

Outcomes With Intermediate Left Main Disease: Analysis From the ISCHEMIA Trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with significant (≥50%) left main disease (LMD) have a high risk of cardiovascular events, and guidelines recommend revascularization to improve survival. However, the impact of intermediate LMD (stenosis, 25%-49%) on outcomes is unclear.

METHODS

Randomized ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches) participants who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at baseline were categorized into those with (25%-49%) and without (<25%) intermediate LMD. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. The primary quality of life outcome was the Seattle Angina Questionnaire summary score.

RESULTS

Among the 3699 participants who satisfied the inclusion criteria, 962 (26%) had intermediate LMD. Among invasive strategy participants with intermediate LMD on coronary computed tomography angiography, 49 (7.0%) had significant (≥50% stenosis) left main stenosis on invasive angiography. Patients with intermediate LMD had a higher risk of cardiovascular events in the unadjusted but not in the fully adjusted model compared with those without intermediate LMD. An invasive strategy increased procedural MI and decreased nonprocedural MI with no significant difference for other outcomes including the primary end point. There was no meaningful heterogeneity of treatment effect based on intermediate LMD status except for nonprocedural MI for which there was a greater absolute reduction with invasive management in the intermediate LMD group (-6.4% versus -2.0%; Pinteraction=0.049). The invasive strategy improved angina-related quality of life and the benefit was durable throughout follow-up without significant heterogeneity based on intermediate LMD status.

CONCLUSIONS

In the ISCHEMIA trial, there was no meaningful heterogeneity of treatment benefit from an invasive strategy regardless of intermediate LMD status except for a greater absolute risk reduction in nonprocedural MI with invasive management in those with intermediate LMD. An invasive strategy increased procedural MI, reduced nonprocedural MI, and improved angina-related quality of life.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT01471522.

CT Angiography Followed by Invasive Angiography in Patients With Moderate or Severe Ischemia-Insights From the ISCHEMIA Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the concordance of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) assessment of coronary anatomy and invasive coronary angiography (ICA) as the reference standard in patients enrolled in the ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches).

BACKGROUND

Performance of CCTA compared with ICA has not been assessed in patients with very high burdens of stress-induced ischemia and a high likelihood of anatomically significant coronary artery disease (CAD). A blinded CCTA was performed after enrollment to exclude patients with left main (LM) disease or no obstructive CAD before randomization to an initial conservative or invasive strategy, the latter guided by ICA and optimal revascularization.

METHODS

Rates of concordance were calculated on a per-patient basis in patients randomized to the invasive strategy. Anatomic significance was defined as ≥50% diameter stenosis (DS) for both modalities. Sensitivity analyses using a threshold of ≥70% DS for CCTA or considering only CCTA images of good-to-excellent quality were performed.

RESULTS

In 1,728 patients identified by CCTA as having no LM disease ≥50% and at least single-vessel CAD, ICA confirmed 97.1% without LM disease ≥50%, 92.2% with at least single-vessel CAD and no LM disease ≥50%, and only 4.9% without anatomically significant CAD. Results using a ≥70% DS threshold or only CCTA of good-to-excellent quality showed similar overall performance.

CONCLUSIONS

CCTA before randomization in ISCHEMIA demonstrated high concordance with subsequent ICA for identification of patients with angiographically significant disease without LM disease.

Initial Invasive Versus Conservative Management of Stable Ischemic Heart Disease in Patients With a History of Heart Failure or Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Insights From the ISCHEMIA Trial

BACKGROUND

Whether an initial invasive strategy in patients with stable ischemic heart disease and at least moderate ischemia improves outcomes in the setting of a history of heart failure (HF) or left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) when ejection fraction is ≥35% but <45% is unknown.

METHODS

Among 5179 participants randomized into ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches), all of whom had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥35%, we compared cardiovascular outcomes by treatment strategy in participants with a history of HF/LVD at baseline versus those without HF/LVD. Median follow-up was 3.2 years.

RESULTS

There were 398 (7.7%) participants with HF/LVD at baseline, of whom 177 had HF/LVEF >45%, 28 HF/LVEF 35% to 45%, and 193 LVEF 35% to 45% but no history of HF. HF/LVD was associated with more comorbidities at baseline, particularly previous myocardial infarction, stroke, and hypertension. Compared with patients without HF/LVD, participants with HF/LVD were more likely to experience a primary outcome composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, HF, or resuscitated cardiac arrest (4-year cumulative incidence rate, 22.7% versus 13.8%; cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction, 19.7% versus 12.3%; and all-cause death or HF, 15.0% versus 6.9%). Participants with HF/LVD randomized to the invasive versus conservative strategy had a lower rate of the primary outcome (17.2% versus 29.3%; difference in 4-year event rate, -12.1% [95% CI, -22.6 to -1.6%]), whereas those without HF/LVD did not (13.0% versus 14.6%; difference in 4-year event rate, -1.6% [95% CI, -3.8% to 0.7%]; P interaction = 0.055). A similar differential effect was seen for the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality when invasive versus conservative strategy-associated outcomes were analyzed with LVEF as a continuous variable for patients with and without previous HF.

CONCLUSIONS

ISCHEMIA participants with stable ischemic heart disease and at least moderate ischemia with a history of HF or LVD were at increased risk for the primary outcome. In the small, high-risk subgroup with HF and LVEF 35% to 45%, an initial invasive approach was associated with better event-free survival. This result should be considered hypothesis-generating. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01471522.

Confirming the Bidirectional Nature of the Association Between Severe Hypoglycemic and Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From EXSCEL

OBJECTIVE

We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a post hoc analysis of 14,752 Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) participants, we examined time-dependent associations between SHEs and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), fatal/nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (hACS), hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as time-dependent associations between nonfatal CV events and subsequent SHEs.

RESULTS

SHEs were uncommon and not associated with once-weekly exenatide therapy (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.94-1.36], P = 0.179). In fully adjusted models, SHEs were associated with an increased risk of subsequent ACM (1.83 [1.38-2.42], P < 0.001), CV death (1.60 [1.11-2.30], P = 0.012), and hHF (2.09 [1.37-3.17], P = 0.001), while nonfatal MI (2.02 [1.35-3.01], P = 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.30 [1.25-4.23], P = 0.007), hACS (2.00 [1.39-2.90], P < 0.001), and hHF (3.24 [1.98-5.30], P < 0.001) were all associated with a subsequent increased risk of SHEs. The elevated bidirectional time-dependent hazards linking SHEs and a composite of all CV events were approximately constant over time, with those individuals at dual risk showing higher comorbidity scores compared with those without.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events as well as greater risk of CV events after SHEs, validate a bidirectional relationship between CV events and SHEs in patients with high comorbidity scores.

Exploring the Possible Impact of Unbalanced Open-Label Drop-In of Glucose-Lowering Medications on EXSCEL Outcomes

BACKGROUND

EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering) assessed the impact of once-weekly exenatide 2 mg versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, while aiming for glycemic equipoise. Consequently, greater drop-in of open-label glucose-lowering medications occurred in the placebo group. Accordingly, we explored the potential effects of their unbalanced use on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality (ACM), given that some of these agents are cardioprotective.

METHODS

Cox hazard models were performed by randomized treatment for drug classes where >5% open-label drop-in glucose-lowering medication occurred, and for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs; 3.0%) using three methodologies: drop-in visit right censoring, inverse probability for treatment weighting (IPTW), and applying drug class risk reductions.

RESULTS

Baseline glucose-lowering medications for the 14 752 EXSCEL participants (73.1% with previous cardiovascular disease) did not differ between treatment groups. During median 3.2 years follow-up, open-label drop-in occurred in 33.4% of participants, more frequently with placebo than exenatide (38.1% versus 28.8%), with metformin (6.1% versus 4.9%), sulfonylurea (8.7% versus 6.9%), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (10.6% versus 7.5%), SGLT-2i (10.3% versus 8.1%), GLP-1 RA (3.4% versus 2.4%), and insulin (13.8% versus 9.4%). The MACE effect size was not altered meaningfully by right censoring, but the favorable HR for exenatide became nominally significant in the sulfonylurea and any glucose-lowering medication groups, while the ACM HR and p-values were essentially unchanged. IPTW decreased the MACE HR from 0.91 (P=0.061) to 0.85 (P=0.008) and the ACM HR from 0.86 (P=0.016) to 0.81 (P=0.012). Application of literature-derived risk reductions showed no meaningful changes in MACE or ACM HRs or P values, although simulations of substantially greater use of drop-in cardioprotective glucose-lowering agents demonstrated blunting of signal detection.

CONCLUSIONS

EXSCEL-observed HRs for MACE and ACM remained robust after right censoring or application of literature-derived risk reductions, but the exenatide versus placebo MACE effect size and statistical significance were increased by IPTW. Effects of open-label drop-in cardioprotective medications need to be considered carefully when designing, conducting, and analyzing cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering agents under the premise of glycemic equipoise. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01144338.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol treatment and outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease: Insights from TECOS

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. Most guidelines recommend treating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels to ≤70 mg/dL (1.8 mM) for patients with T2D and established atherosclerotic CV disease, and some a more aggressive target of ≤55 mg/dL (1.4 mM). Our objective was to assess the degree to which these LDL-C targets are achieved in routine practice.

METHODS

Using data from TECOS, an international pragmatic CV outcomes trial of sitagliptin vs placebo, we assessed lipid-lowering treatment among patients with T2D and CV disease, baseline lipid values, and the association between baseline LDL-C and 5-year risk for major adverse cardiac events (MACE; ie, CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke).

RESULTS

Overall, 11,066 of 14,671 TECOS participants (75.4%) had LDL-C measured at baseline. Median age was 65 years, 72% were male, and median T2D duration was 10 years. Overall, 82.5% of patients were on statins; only 5.8% were on ezetimibe. At baseline, 14.3% had LDL-C ≤55 mg/dL, 18.4% between 55.1 and 70 mg/dL, 35% between 70.1 and 100 mg/dL, and 32.3% >100 mg/dL. Each 10 mg/dL higher LDL-C value was associated with a higher risk of MACE (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07) or CV death (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Although most high-risk patients with T2D and CV disease were on lipid-lowering therapy, only 1:3 had LDL-C <70 mg/dL and 1:6 had LDL-C <55 mg/dL. Each 10 mg/dL higher LDL-C value was associated with a 5% and 6% higher 5-year incidence of MACE and CV death, respectively. (TECOS, NCT00790205).

Antithrombotic treatment gap among patients with atrial fibrillation and type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We investigated the use of different antithrombotic therapies at baseline among patients with a history of atrial fibrillation (AF), type 2 diabetes, and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) enrolled in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS).

METHODS

TECOS participants with a history of AF were stratified by CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and their antithrombotic use evaluated. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to explore possible associations between history of AF and prespecified clinical outcomes after adjusting for key baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Of the 14,671 TECOS participants, 1167 (8%) had a history of AF, of whom 51.6% were using vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 31.2% used VKA alone, 16.9% used aspirin plus VKA, 1.8% used clopidogrel plus VKA, and 1.7% used aspirin and clopidogrel plus VKA. Aspirin was used by 56.8%: 30.9% used aspirin alone and 7.3% aspirin plus clopidogrel. Clopidogrel alone was used by 2.9%, and 7.3% were not using any antithrombotic medication. Participants with a history of AF had a higher risk of cardiovascular events, including hospitalization for heart failure and all-cause mortality, than those without AF. White, older men with prior myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, or prior stroke were more likely to develop new-onset AF than others without these characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half of high-risk AF patients with diabetes and established ASCVD in TECOS were not treated with anticoagulation therapy despite clear guideline recommendations for such therapy, highlighting the challenge and potential for clinical improvements in managing these patients in clinical practice.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00790205.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score and EuroSCORE-2 Appropriately Assess 30-Day Postoperative Mortality in the STICH Trial and a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction Undergoing Surgical Revascularization

BACKGROUND

The STICH trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure) demonstrated a survival benefit of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and left ventricular dysfunction. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score and the EuroSCORE-2 (ES2) are used for risk assessment in cardiac surgery, with little information available about their accuracy in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. We assessed the ability of the STS score and ES2 to evaluate 30-day postoperative mortality risk in STICH and a contemporary cohort (CC) of patients with a left ventricle ejection fraction ≤35% undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting outside of a trial setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The STS and ES2 scores were calculated for 814 STICH patients and 1246 consecutive patients in a CC. There were marked variations in 30-day postoperative mortality risk from 1 patient to another. The STS scores consistently calculated lower risk scores than ES2 (1.5 versus 2.9 for the CC and 0.9 versus 2.4 for the STICH cohort), and underestimated postoperative mortality risk. The STS and ES2 scores had moderately good C statistics: CC (0.727, 95% CI: 0.650-0.803 for STS, and 0.707, 95% CI: 0.620-0.795 for ES2); STICH (0.744, 95% CI: 0.677-0.812, for STS and 0.736, 95% CI: 0.665-0.808 for ES2). Despite the CC patients having higher STS and ES2 scores than STICH patients, mortality (3.5%) was lower than that of STICH (4.8%), suggesting a possible decrease in postoperative mortality over the past decade.

CONCLUSIONS

The 30-day postoperative mortality risk of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with left ventricular dysfunction varies markedly. Both the STS and ES2 score are effective in evaluating risk, although the STS score tend to underestimate risk.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.

Burden of medical co-morbidities and benefit from surgical revascularization in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy

AIMS

The landmark STICH trial found that surgical revascularization compared to medical therapy alone improved survival in patients with heart failure (HF) of ischaemic aetiology and an ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35%. However, the interaction between the burden of medical co-morbidities and the benefit from surgical revascularization has not been previously described in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The STICH trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00023595) enrolled patients ≥ 18 years of age with coronary artery disease amenable to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and an EF ≤ 35%. Eligible participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive medical therapy (MED) (n = 602) or MED/CABG (n = 610). A modified Charlson co-morbidity index (CCI) based on the availability of data and study definitions was calculated by summing the weighted points for all co-morbid conditions. Patients were divided into mild/moderate (CCI 1-4) and severe (CCI ≥ 5) co-morbidity. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between CCI and outcomes and the interaction between severity of co-morbidity and treatment effect. The study population included 349 patients (29%) with a mild/moderate CCI score and 863 patients (71%) with a severe CCI score. Patients with a severe CCI score had greater functional limitations based on 6-min walk test and impairments in health-related quality of life as assessed by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. A total of 161 patients (Kaplan-Meier rate = 50%) with a mild/moderate CCI score and 579 patients (Kaplan-Meier rate = 69%) with a severe CCI score died over a median follow-up of 9.8 years. After adjusting for baseline confounders, patients with a severe CCI score were at higher risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.74; P < 0.001). There was no interaction between CCI score and treatment effect on survival (P = 0.756).

CONCLUSIONS

More than 70% of patients had a severe burden of medical co-morbidities at baseline, which was independently associated with increased risk of death. There was not a differential benefit of surgical revascularization with respect to survival based on severity of co-morbidity.

Progression of glucose-lowering diabetes therapy in TECOS

AIMS

TECOS was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial assessing the impact of sitagliptin vs. placebo on cardiovascular outcomes when added to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes. We report the use of concomitant diabetes medications and the risk for progression to insulin during follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

TECOS enrolled 14 671 participants with HbA1c 6.5%-8.0% on monotherapy with metformin, pioglitazone, sulfonylurea (SU), or dual therapy with two oral agents or insulin with or without metformin. Subsequent diabetes management was by the participant's usual care physician. Time to initiation of insulin and risk of hypoglycaemia were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The most common glucose-lowering regimens at baseline were metformin monotherapy (30.2%), SU monotherapy (8.5%), metformin/SU therapy (35.1%), and insulin with or without metformin (13.9% and 8.6%, respectively). Over a median 3.0 years' follow-up, diabetes therapy was intensified in 25.2% of participants (sitagliptin 22.0%, placebo 28.3%). Medications most commonly added were SU (8.3%) or insulin (8.8%). Insulin initiation in the usual care setting occurred at mean (standard deviation) HbA1c of 8.5 (1.5)%. Sitagliptin did not impact rates of severe hypoglycaemia, but delayed progression to insulin when added to metformin or metformin/SU regimens.

CONCLUSION

Consistent with the trial's pragmatic design, TECOS participants underwent typical progression of diabetes medications. Sitagliptin was associated with lower HbA1c, without increased risk for severe hypoglycaemia and was associated with delayed progression to insulin when added to metformin with or without SU.

Sex differences in management and outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: A report from TECOS

AIM

To examine sex differences in baseline characteristics and outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic vascular disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cox models were used to analyse the association between sex and outcomes in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), a randomized, placebo-controlled trial assessing the impact of sitagliptin on cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic vascular disease.

RESULTS

A total of 4297 women and 10 374 men were followed for a median of 3.0 years. Women were slightly older and more often had cerebrovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease but less often coronary heart disease than men. At baseline, women were less likely to use aspirin or statins. The primary composite outcome of CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina occurred in 418 women (9.7%) and 1272 men (12.3%; 3.48 vs 4.38 events/100 participant-years, crude hazard ratio [HR] 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.89, adjusted HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.55-0.74; P < .0001). Women also had a significantly lower risk of secondary CV outcomes and all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective study of people with type 2 diabetes and CV disease, women had different CV disease burden, worse CV risk factor profiles, and less use of indicated medications than men. Despite this, women had significantly lower risk of CV events, suggesting that the cardioprotective effects of female sex extend to populations with type 2 diabetes.

Utility of Growth Differentiation Factor-15, A Marker of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation, in Chronic Heart Failure: Insights From the HF-ACTION Study

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine the relationship between growth differentiation factor (GDF)-15 and clinical outcomes in ambulatory patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

BACKGROUND

The prognostic utility of GDF-15, a member of the transforming growth factor-β cytokine family, among patients with HF is unclear.

METHODS

We assessed GDF-15 levels in 910 patients enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training) trial, a randomized clinical trial of exercise training in patients with HFrEF. Median follow-up was 30 months. Cox proportional hazard models assessed the relationships between GDF-15 and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The median GDF-15 concentration was 1,596 pg/ml. Patients in the highest tertile of GDF-15 were older and had measurements of more severe HF (higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] concentrations and lower peak oxygen uptake on cardiopulmonary exercise testing [CPX]). GDF-15 therapy was a significant predictor of all-cause death (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.03 when GDF-15 was doubled; p < 0.0001). This association persisted after adjustment for demographic and clinical and biomarkers including high sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) and NT-proBNP (HR: 1.30 per doubling of GDF-15; p = 0.029). GDF-15 did not improve discrimination (as measured by changes in c-statistics and the integrated discrimination improvement) in addition to baseline variables, including hs-TnT and NT-proBNP or variables found in CPX testing.

CONCLUSIONS

In demographically diverse, well-managed patients with HFrEF, GDF-15 therapy provided independent prognostic information in addition to established predictors of outcomes. These data support a possible role for GDF-15 in the risk stratification of patients with chronic HFrEF. (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training [HF-ACTION]; NCT00047437).

Increased Risk of Severe Hypoglycemic Events Before and After Cardiovascular Outcomes in TECOS Suggests an At-Risk Type 2 Diabetes Frail Patient Phenotype

OBJECTIVE

Severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) in type 2 diabetes are associated with subsequent cardiovascular (CV) event risk. We examined whether CV events were associated with subsequent SHE risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Time-dependent associations between SHEs and a composite CV end point (fatal/nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, hospitalization for heart failure [hHF]) were examined post hoc in 14,671 TECOS (Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes With Sitagliptin) participants with type 2 diabetes and CV disease followed for a median of 3.0 years.

RESULTS

SHEs were uncommon and unassociated with sitagliptin therapy (N = 160 [2.2%], 0.78/100 patient-years vs. N = 143 [1.9%], 0.70/100 patient-years for placebo; hazard ratio [HR] 1.12 [95% CI 0.89, 1.40], P = 0.33). Patients with (versus without) SHEs were older with longer diabetes duration, lower body weight, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate; were more frequently women, nonwhite, and insulin treated; and more often had microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria. Analyses adjusted for clinical factors showed SHEs were associated with increased risk of the primary composite CV end point (1.55 [1.06, 2.28], P = 0.025), all-cause death (1.83 [1.22, 2.75], P = 0.004), and CV death (1.72 [1.02, 2.87], P = 0.040). Conversely, nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.02 [1.83, 4.96], P < 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.77 [1.36, 5.63], P = 0.005), and hHF (3.68 [2.13, 6.36], P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk of SHEs. Fully adjusted models showed no association between SHEs and subsequent CV or hHF events, but the association between CV events and subsequent SHEs remained robust.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events and greater risk of CV events after SHEs, suggest a common at-risk type 2 diabetes frail patient phenotype.

Impact of Intubation Time on Survival following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Insights from the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial

OBJECTIVE

The authors aimed to assess determinants of intubation time and evaluate its impact on 30-day and 1-year postoperative survival in Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS

A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used among the 1,446 surgical patients from the STICH trial who survived 36 hours after operation, in order to identify perioperative factors associated with 30-day and 1-year postoperative mortality. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with intubation time.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

At 36 hours post-operation, 1,298 (out of 1,446) were extubated and 148 (10.2%) still intubated. Median postoperative intubation time was 11.4 hours. Among patients surviving 36 hours, a multivariable model was developed to predict 30-day (c-index = 0.88) and 1-year (c-index = 0.78) mortality. Intubation time was the strongest independent predictor of 30-day (hazard ratio [HR] 5.50) and 1-year mortality (HR 3.69). Predictors of intubation time >36 hours included mitral valve procedure, New York Heart Association class, left ventricular systolic volume index, creatinine, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and age. Results were similar in patients surviving 24 hours post-operation, where intubation time was also the strongest predictor of 30-day (HR 4.18, c-index 0.87) and 1-year (HR 2.81, c-index 0.78) mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Intubation time is the strongest predictor of 30-day and 1-year mortality among patients with ischemic heart failure undergoing CABG. Combining intubation time with other mortality risk factors may allow the identification of patients at the highest risk for whom the development of specific strategies may improve outcomes.

Prevalence, Profile, and Prognosis of Severe Obesity in Contemporary Hospitalized Heart Failure Trial Populations

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the prevalence, profile, and prognosis of severe obesity in a large contemporary acute heart failure (AHF) population.

BACKGROUND

Better prognosis has been reported for obese heart failure (HF) patients than nonobese HF patients, but in other cardiovascular populations, this effect has not been demonstrated for severely obese patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 795 participants with body mass index (BMI) measured at time of admission and complete follow-up were identified from enrollment in 3 contemporary AHF trials (DOSE [Diuretic Strategies Optimization Evaluation], CARRESS-HF [Cardiorenal Rescue Study in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure], and ROSE [Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure]). Patients were divided into 4 BMI categories according to standard World Health Organization criteria, as follows: normal weight: 18.5 to 25 kg/m² [n = 128]; overweight: 25 to 29.9 kg/m² [n = 209]; mild-to-moderate obese: 30 to 39.9 kg/m² [n = 301]; and severely obese: ≥40 kg/m² [n = 157]). The relationship between BMI and 60-day composite outcome (death, rehospitalization, or unscheduled provider visit) was investigated.

RESULTS

Patients with severe obesity (19.7%) were younger, more often female, hypertensive, diabetic, and more likely to have higher blood pressures and left ventricular ejection fraction, and lower N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin I levels than other BMI category patients. Following admission for AHF, patients with normal weight showed the highest risk of 60-day composite outcome, followed by patients who were severely obese. Overweight and mild-moderately obese patients showed lowest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one-fifth of AHF patients enrolled in contemporary randomized clinical trials are severely obese. A U-shaped curve for short-term prognosis according to BMI is seen in AHF. These findings may help to better inform both HF clinical care and future clinical trial planning.

Predicting risk of cardiac events among ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients with conservatively managed non-infarct-related artery coronary artery disease: An analysis of the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Recent randomized evidence has demonstrated benefit with complete revascularization during the index hospitalization for multivessel coronary artery disease ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients; however, this benefit likely depends on the risk of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

METHODS

Using data from Duke University Medical Center (2003-2012), we identified those at high risk for 1-year MACE among 664 STEMI patients with conservatively managed non-infarct-related artery (non-IRA) lesions. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified clinical and angiographic characteristics associated with MACE (death, myocardial infarction, urgent revascularization) to 1 year and developed an integer-based risk prediction model for clinical use.

RESULTS

In this cohort (median age 60 years, 30% female), the unadjusted Kaplan-Meier rates for MACE at 30 days and 1 year were 10% and 28%, respectively. Characteristics associated with MACE at 1 year included reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, hypertension, heart failure, higher-risk non-IRA vessels (left main), renal insufficiency, and greater % stenosis of non-IRA lesions. A 15-point risk score including these variables had modest discrimination (C-index 0.67) across a spectrum of subsequent risk (4%-88%) for 1-year MACE.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide spectrum of risk following primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI patients with multivessel disease. Using readily available clinical characteristics, the expected incidence of MACE by 1 year can be calculated with a simplified risk score, facilitating a tailored approach to clinical care.

Safety of sitagliptin in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: outcomes from TECOS

AIMS

To characterize the incidence of diabetes-associated complications and assess the safety of sitagliptin in participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For participants with baseline eGFR measurements (n = 14 528), baseline characteristics and safety outcomes were compared for the CKD cohort (eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m² ) vs those without CKD. Within the CKD cohort, the same analyses were performed, comparing sitagliptin- and placebo-assigned participants. Baseline characteristics were summarized for all participants, and serious adverse events were analysed in those who received at least 1 dose of study medication. Adverse events of interest and diabetes complications were summarized for the intention-to-treat population.

RESULTS

CKD was present in 3324 (23%) participants at entry into TECOS. The mean (SD) age for this CKD cohort was 68.8 (7.9) years, mean diabetes duration was 13.7 (9.0) years, and 62% were men. Incidences of serious adverse events, malignancy, bone fracture, severe hypoglycaemia and most categories of diabetes complications were higher in the CKD cohort compared with those without CKD. Over ~2.8 median years of follow-up, CKD participants assigned to sitagliptin had rates of diabetic eye disease, diabetic neuropathy, renal failure, malignancy, bone fracture, pancreatitis and severe hypoglycaemia similar to those of placebo-assigned participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants in TECOS with CKD had higher incidences of serious adverse events and diabetes complications than those without CKD. Treatment with sitagliptin was generally well tolerated, with no meaningful differences in safety outcomes observed between those with CKD assigned to sitagliptin or placebo.

Differential Response to Low-Dose Dopamine or Low-Dose Nesiritide in Acute Heart Failure With Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction: Results From the ROSE AHF Trial (Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure)

BACKGROUND

The ROSE AHF trial (Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure) found that when compared with placebo, neither low-dose dopamine (2 µg/kg per minute) nor low-dose nesiritide (0.005 μg/kg per minute without bolus) enhanced decongestion or preserved renal function in AHF patients with renal dysfunction. However, there may be differential responses to vasoactive agents in AHF patients with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (EF). This post hoc analysis examined potential interaction between treatment effect and EF (EF ≤40% versus >40%) on the ROSE AHF end points.

METHODS AND RESULTS

ROSE AHF enrolled AHF patients (n=360; any EF) with renal dysfunction. The coprimary end points were cumulative urine volume and the change in serum cystatin-C in 72 hours. The effect of dopamine (interaction P=0.001) and nesiritide (interaction P=0.039) on urine volume varied by EF group. In heart failure with reduced EF, urine volume was higher with active treatment versus placebo, whereas in heart failure with preserved EF, urine volume was lower with active treatment. The effect of dopamine and nesiritide on weight change, sodium excretion, and incidence of AHF treatment failure also varied by EF group (interaction P<0.05 for all). There was no interaction between vasoactive treatment's effect and EF on change in cystatin-C. Compared with placebo, dopamine was associated with improved clinical outcomes in heart failure with reduced EF and worse clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved EF. With nesiritide, there were no differences in clinical outcomes when compared with placebo in both heart failure with reduced EF and heart failure with preserved EF.

CONCLUSIONS

In this post hoc analysis of ROSE AHF, the response to vasoactive therapies differed in patients with heart failure with reduced EF and heart failure with preserved EF. Investigations of AHF therapies should assess the potential for differential responses in AHF with preserved versus reduced EF.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01132846.

Regional left ventricular function does not predict survival in ischaemic cardiomyopathy after cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVES

To define the prognostic contribution of global and regional left ventricular (LV) function measurements in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy randomised to coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with (n=501) or without (n=499) surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR).

METHODS

Novel multivariable methods to analyse global and regional LV systolic function were used to better formulate prediction models for long-term mortality following CABG with or without SVR in the entire cohort of 1000 randomised SVR hypothesis patients. Key clinical variables were included in the analysis. Regional function was classified according to the discreteness of anteroapical hypokinesia and akinesia into those most likely to benefit from SVR, those least likely and those felt to have intermediate likelihood of benefit from SVR.

RESULTS

The most prognostic clinical variables identified in multivariable models include creatinine, LV end-systolic volume index (ESVI), age and NYHA (New York Heart Association) class. Addition of LV ejection fraction, LV end-diastolic volume index and regional function assessment did not contribute additional power to the model. Subgroup analysis based on regional function did not identify a cohort in which SVR improved mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

ESVI is the single parameter of LV function most predictive of mortality in patients with LV systolic dysfunction following CABG with or without SVR in multivariable models that include all key clinical and LV systolic function parameters. Assessment of regional cardiac function does not enhance prediction of mortality nor identify a subgroup for which SVR improves mortality. These results do not support elective addition of LV reconstruction surgery in patients undergoing CABG.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00023595.

Reporting Clinical End Points and Safety Events in an Acute Coronary Syndrome Trial: Results With Integrated Collection

Background

End points and adverse events (AEs) are collected separately in clinical trials, yet regulatory requirements for serious AE reporting vary across regions, so classifying end points according to seriousness criteria can be useful in global trials.

Methods and Results

In the Apixaban for Prevention of Acute Ischemic Events 2 (APPRAISE‐2) trial, patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome were randomized to apixaban or placebo for the prevention of recurrent ischemic events. Suspected end points (myocardial infarction, stroke, or bleeding) were adjudicated by an independent clinical events classification committee. Safety criteria were collected for suspected end points and AEs. Patient‐level event rates per 100 patient‐days of follow‐up, modeled using Poisson regression, explored the influence of region and patient characteristics on event reporting. Overall, 13 909 events were reported by 858 sites in 39 countries; 8.4% (n=1166) were suspected end points, and 91.6% (n=12 743) were AEs. Overall, 66.0% of suspected end points were confirmed by the clinical events classification committee. Most clinical events classification committee‐confirmed end points met criteria to be classified as serious (94.0%); many clinical events classification committee‐negated end points also did (63.2%), but fewer AEs met seriousness criteria (17.9%). The most common seriousness criterion was hospitalization (79.9%, n=2594). Region explained 28.7% of end point‐ and 26.4% of serious AE‐reporting variation, and patient characteristics explained an additional 25.4% of end point and 13.4% of serious AE variation. Nonserious AE‐reporting variation was not explained by adjustment.

Conclusions

An integrated collection of end points and serious AEs is feasible in a multinational trial and illustrates the shared characteristics of events. Tailoring event collection to fit the phase and purpose of the trial is achievable and informative.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00831441.

Suppression of Tumorigenicity 2 in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) receptor is a biomarker that is elevated in certain systemic inflammatory diseases. Comorbidity-driven microvascular inflammation is postulated to play a key role in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) pathophysiology, but data on how sST2 relates to clinical characteristics or inflammatory conditions or biomarkers in HFpEF are limited. We sought to determine circulating levels and clinical correlates of sST2 in HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

At enrollment, patients (n=174) from the Phosphodiesterase-5 Inhibition to Improve Clinical Status And Exercise Capacity in Diastolic Heart Failure (RELAX) trial of sildenafil in HFpEF had sST2 levels measured. Clinical characteristics; cardiac structure and function; exercise performance; and biomarkers of neurohumoral activation, systemic inflammation and fibrosis, and myocardial necrosis were assessed in relation to sST2 levels. Median sST2 levels in male and female HFpEF patients were 36.7 ng/mL (range 30.9-49.2 ng/mL; reference range 4-31 ng/mL) and 30.8 ng/mL (range 25.3-39.3 ng/mL; reference range 2-21 ng/mL), respectively. Among HFpEF patients, higher sST2 levels were associated with the presence of diabetes mellitus; atrial fibrillation; renal dysfunction; right ventricular pressure overload and dysfunction; systemic congestion; exercise intolerance; and biomarkers of systemic inflammation and fibrosis, neurohumoral activation, and myocardial necrosis (P<0.05 for all). sST2 was not associated with left ventricular structure or left ventricular systolic or diastolic function.

CONCLUSIONS

In HFpEF, sST2 levels were associated with proinflammatory comorbidities, right ventricular pressure overload and dysfunction, and systemic congestion but not with left ventricular geometry or function. These data suggest that ST2 may be a marker of systemic inflammation in HFpEF and potentially of extracardiac origin.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00763867.

Pancreatic Safety of Sitagliptin in the TECOS Study

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the incidence of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease who were treated with sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) study, a cardiovascular safety study of sitagliptin, all suspected cases of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were collected prospectively for 14,671 participants during a median follow-up time of 3 years, and were adjudicated blindly.

RESULTS

Baseline differences were minimal between participants confirmed to have no pancreatic events, acute pancreatitis, or pancreatic cancer. Among those participants randomized to receive sitagliptin, 23 (0.3%) (vs. 12 randomized to receive placebo [0.2%]) had pancreatitis (hazard ratio 1.93 [95% CI 0.96-3.88], P = 0.065; 0.107 vs. 0.056/100 patient-years), with 25 versus 17 events, respectively. Severe pancreatitis (two fatal) occurred in four individuals allocated to receive sitagliptin. Cases of pancreatic cancer were numerically fewer with sitagliptin (9 [0.1%]) versus placebo (14 [0.2%]) (hazard ratio 0.66 [95% CI 0.28-1.51], P = 0.32; 0.042 vs. 0.066 events/100 patient-years). Meta-analysis with two other DPP-4i cardiovascular outcome studies showed an increased risk for acute pancreatitis (risk ratio 1.78 [95% CI 1.13-2.81], P = 0.01) and no significant effect for pancreatic cancer (risk ratio 0.54 [95% CI 0.28-1.04], P = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were uncommon events with rates that were not statistically significantly different between the sitagliptin and placebo groups, although numerically more sitagliptin participants developed pancreatitis and fewer developed pancreatic cancer. Meta-analysis suggests a small absolute increased risk for pancreatitis with DPP-4i therapy.

Efficacy and Safety of Apixaban Compared With Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Peripheral Artery Disease: Insights From the ARISTOTLE Trial

Background

We studied (1) the rates of stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and peripheral artery disease (PAD) and (2) the efficacy and safety of apixaban versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation with and without PAD.

Methods and Results

The Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial randomized 18 201 patients with atrial fibrillation to apixaban or warfarin for stroke/systemic embolism prevention; 884 (4.9%) patients had PAD at baseline. Patients with PAD had higher unadjusted rates of stroke and systemic embolism (hazard ratio [HR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.22–2.45; P=0.002) and major bleeding (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.00–1.81; P=0.05), but after adjustment, no differences existed in rates of stroke and systemic embolism (HR 1.32, 95% CI 0.93–1.88; P=0.12) and major bleeding (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.76–1.40; P=0.83) compared with patients without PAD. The risk of stroke or systemic embolism was similar in patients assigned to apixaban and warfarin with PAD (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.32–1.25) and without PAD (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66–0.96; interaction P=0.52). Patients with PAD did not have a statistically significant reduction in major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding with apixaban compared with warfarin (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.69–1.58), whereas those without PAD had a statistically significant reduction (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.58–0.73; interaction P=0.03).

Conclusions

Patients with PAD in ARISTOTLE had a higher crude risk of stroke or systemic embolism compared with patients without PAD that was not present after adjustment. The benefits of apixaban versus warfarin for stroke and systemic embolism were similar in patients with and without PAD. These findings highlight the need to optimize the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation and PAD.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00412984.

Effect of Sitagliptin on Kidney Function and Respective Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: Outcomes From TECOS

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular outcomes in TECOS (Clinical trial reg. no. NCT00790205, clinicaltrials.gov) participants with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease treated with sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, according to baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from 14,671 TECOS participants assigned in a double-blind design to receive sitagliptin or placebo added to existing therapy, while aiming for glycemic equipoise between groups. Cardiovascular and CKD outcomes were evaluated over a median period of 3 years, with participants categorized at baseline into eGFR stages 1, 2, 3a, and 3b (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, or 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m², respectively).

RESULTS

Participants with eGFR stage 3b were older, were more often female, and had a longer duration of diabetes. Four-point major adverse cardiovascular event rates increased with lower baseline eGFR (3.52, 3.55, 5.74, and 7.34 events/100 patient-years for stages 1-3b, respectively). Corresponding adjusted hazard ratios for stages 2, 3a, and 3b versus stage 1 were 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.06), 1.28 (1.10-1.49), and 1.39 (1.13-1.72), respectively. Sitagliptin therapy was not associated with cardiovascular outcomes for any eGFR stage (interaction P values were all >0.44). Kidney function declined at the same rate in both treatment groups, with a marginally lower but constant eGFR difference (-1.3 mL/min/1.73 m²) in those participants who were assigned to sitagliptin. Treatment differences in these eGFR values remained after adjustment for region, baseline eGFR, baseline HbA_1c, time of assessment, and within-study HbA_1c levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired kidney function is associated with worse cardiovascular outcomes. Sitagliptin has no clinically significant impact on cardiovascular or CKD outcomes, irrespective of baseline eGFR.

Timing and Causes of Readmission After Acute Heart Failure Hospitalization-Insights From the Heart Failure Network Trials

BACKGROUND

Readmission or death after heart failure (HF) hospitalization is a consequential and closely scrutinized outcome, but risk factors may vary by population. We characterized the risk factors for post-discharge readmission/death in subjects treated for acute heart failure (AHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A post hoc analysis was performed on data from 744 subjects enrolled in 3 AHF trials conducted within the Heart Failure Network (HFN): Diuretic Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure (DOSE-AHF), Cardiorenal Rescue Study in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (CARRESS-HF), and Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure (ROSE-AHF). All-cause readmission/death occurred in 26% and 38% of subjects within 30 and 60 days of discharge, respectively. Non-HF cardiovascular causes of readmission were more common in the ≤30-day timeframe than in the 31-60-day timeframe (23% vs 10%, P = .016). In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting a priori for left ventricular ejection fraction <50% and trial, the risk factors for all-cause readmission/death included: elevated baseline blood urea nitrogen, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) non-use, lower baseline sodium, non-white race, elevated baseline bicarbonate, lower systolic blood pressure at discharge or day 7, depression, increased length of stay, and male sex.

CONCLUSIONS

In an AHF population with prominent congestion and prevalent renal dysfunction, early readmissions were more likely to be due to non-HF cardiovascular causes compared with later readmissions. The association between use of ACEI/ARB and lower all-cause readmission/death in Cox proportional hazards model suggests a role for these drugs to improve post-discharge outcomes in AHF.

Insulin-Like Growth Factor-Binding Protein-7 as a Biomarker of Diastolic Dysfunction and Functional Capacity in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: Results From the RELAX Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to investigate relationships between insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) and parameters of diastolic function or functional capacity in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) who were randomized to receive sildenafil or placebo.

BACKGROUND

IGFBP7 was previously found to be associated with diastolic function in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but it is unclear whether these associations are present in HFpEF.

METHODS

At baseline and 24 weeks, IGFBP7, imaging studies, and peak oxygen consumption (Vo_2max) were obtained and compared in 160 patients with HFpEF who were randomized to receive sildenafil or placebo.

RESULTS

Patients with supramedian baseline IGFBP7 concentrations were older, had signs of systemic congestion and worse renal function, and had higher concentrations of prognostic heart failure biomarkers including amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (p < 0.05). Higher baseline IGFBP7 was modestly correlated with worse diastolic function: higher E velocity (Spearman correlation [ρ] = 0.40), E/E' (ρ = 0.40), left atrial volume index (ρ = 0.39), and estimated right ventricular systolic pressure (ρ = 0.41; all p < 0.001) and weakly correlated with transmitral E/A (ρ = 0.26; p = 0.006). Notably, change in IGFBP7 was significantly correlated with change in E, E/A, E/E', and right ventricular systolic pressure. Elevated baseline IGFBP7 was associated with lower baseline Vo_2max (13.2 vs. 11.1 ml/min/kg; p < 0.001), and change in IGFBP7 was weakly inversely correlated with change in Vo_2max (ρ = -0.19; p = 0.01). Subjects receiving sildenafil had a decrease in IGFBP7 over 24 weeks, in contrast to placebo-treated patients (median change in IGFBP7 -1.5 vs. +13.6 ng/ml; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HFpEF, IGFBP7 may be a novel biomarker of diastolic function and exercise capacity.

Clopidogrel use After Myocardial Revascularization: Prevalence, Predictors, and One-Year Survival Rate

Introduction

Antiplatelet therapy after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used. Little is known about the predictors and efficacy of clopidogrel in this scenario.

Objective

Identify predictors of clopidogrel following CABG.

Methods

We evaluated 5404 patients who underwent CABG between 2000 and 2009 at Duke University Medical Center. We excluded patients undergoing concomitant valve surgery, those who had postoperative bleeding or death before discharge. Postoperative clopidogrel was left to the discretion of the attending physician. Adjusted risk for 1-year mortality was compared between patients receiving and not receiving clopidogrel during hospitalization after undergoing CABG.

Results

At hospital discharge, 931 (17.2%) patients were receiving clopidogrel. Comparing patients not receiving clopidogrel at discharge, users had more comorbidities, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and cerebrovascular disease. Patients who received aspirin during hospitalization were less likely to receive clopidogrel at discharge (P≤0.0001). Clopidogrel was associated with similar 1-year mortality compared with those who did not use clopidogrel (4.4% vs. 4.5%, P=0.72). There was, however, an interaction between the use of cardiopulmonary bypass and clopidogrel, with lower 1-year mortality in patients undergoing off-pump CABG who received clopidogrel, but not those undergoing conventional CABG (2.6% vs 5.6%, P Interaction = 0.032).

Conclusion

Clopidogrel was used in nearly one-fifth of patients after CABG. Its use was not associated with lower mortality after 1 year in general, but lower mortality rate in those undergoing off-pump CABG. Randomized clinical trials are needed to determine the benefit of routine use of clopidogrel in CABG.

Predicting Outcomes Over Time in Patients With Heart Failure, Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction, or Both Following Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background

Most studies of risk assessment or stratification in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) have been static and fail to account for the evolving nature of clinical events and care processes. We sought to identify predictors of mortality, cardiovascular death or nonfatal MI, and cardiovascular death or nonfatal heart failure (HF) over time in patients with HF, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, or both post‐MI.

Methods and Results

Using data from the VALsartan In Acute myocardial iNfarcTion (VALIANT) trial, we developed models to estimate the association between patient characteristics and the likelihood of experiencing an event from the time of a follow‐up visit until the next visit. The intervals are: hospital arrival to discharge or 14 days, whichever occurs first; hospital discharge to 30 days; 30 days to 6 months; and 6 months to 3 years. Models were also developed to predict the entire 3‐year follow‐up period using baseline information. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used throughout with Wald chi‐squares as the comparator of strength for each predictor. For the baseline model of overall mortality, the 3 strongest predictors were age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28–1.42; P<0.0001), baseline heart rate (adjusted HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.14–1.21; P<0.0001), and creatinine clearance (≤100 mL/min; adjusted HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84–0.89; P<0.0001). According to the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indices, the updated model had significant improvement over the model with baseline covariates only in all follow‐up periods and with all outcomes.

Conclusions

Patient information assessed closest to the time of the outcome was more valuable in predicting death when compared with information obtained at the time of the index hospitalization. Using updated patient information improves prognosis over using only the information available at the time of the index event.

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: Data From ROCKET AF

Background

Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all‐cause mortality may guide interventions.

Methods and Results

In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose‐adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all‐cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention‐to‐treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS₂ score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow‐up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan–Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all‐cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33–1.70, P<0.0001) and age ≥75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51–1.90, P<0.0001) were associated with higher all‐cause mortality. Multiple additional characteristics were independently associated with higher mortality, with decreasing creatinine clearance, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, male sex, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes being among the most strongly associated (model C‐index 0.677).

Conclusions

In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, ≈7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereas <1 in 10 deaths were caused by nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. Optimal prevention and treatment of heart failure, renal impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes may improve survival.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00403767.

Clinical Implications of Serum Albumin Levels in Acute Heart Failure: Insights From DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF

BACKGROUND

Hypoalbuminemia is common in patients with chronic heart failure and, as a marker of disease severity, is associated with an adverse prognosis. Whether hypoalbuminemia contributes to (or is associated with) worse outcomes in acute heart failure (AHF) is unclear. We sought to determine the implications of low serum albumin in patients receiving decongestive therapies for AHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Baseline serum albumin levels were measured in 456 AHF subjects randomized in the DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF trials. We assessed the relationship between admission albumin levels (both as a continuous variable and stratified by median albumin [≥3.5 g/dL]) and worsening renal function (WRF), worsening heart failure (WHF), and clinical decongestion by 72 hours; 7-day cardiorenal biomarkers; and post-discharge outcomes. The mean baseline albumin level was 3.5 ± 0.5 g/dL. Albumin was not associated with WRF, WHF, or clinical decongestion by 72 hours. Furthermore, there was no association between continuous albumin levels and symptom change according to visual analog scale or weight change by 72 hours. Albumin was not associated with 60-day mortality, rehospitalization, or unscheduled emergency room visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline serum albumin levels were not associated with short-term clinical outcomes for AHF patients undergoing decongestive therapies. These data suggest that serum albumin may not be a helpful tool to guide decongestion strategies.

Hemodynamic Predictors of Heart Failure Morbidity and Mortality: Fluid or Flow?

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced heart failure may continue for prolonged times with persistent hemodynamic abnormalities; intermediate- and long-term outcomes of these patients are unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) trial data to examine characteristics and outcomes of patients with invasive hemodynamic monitoring during an acute heart failure hospitalization. Patients were stratified by final measurement of cardiac index (CI; L/min/m2) and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP; mmHg) before catheter removal. The study groups were CI ≥ 2/PCWP < 20 (n = 74), CI ≥ 2/PCWP ≥ 20 (n = 37), CI < 2/PCWP < 20 (n = 23), and CI < 2/PCWP ≥ 20 (n = 17). Final CI was not associated with the combined risk of death, cardiovascular hospitalization, and transplantation (hazard ratio [HR]1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.96-1.11 per 0.2 L/min/m2 decrease, P = .39), but final PCWP ≥ 20 mmHg was associated with increased risk of these events (HR 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.31-3.15, P < .01), as was higher final right atrial pressure (HR 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.12 per mmHg increase, P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Final PCWP and final right atrial pressure were stronger predictors of postdischarge outcomes than CI in patients with advanced heart failure. The ability to lower filling pressures appears to be more prognostically important than improving CI in the management of patients with advanced heart failure. ClinicalTrials.govIdentifier: NCT00000619.

Influence of Baseline Characteristics, Operative Conduct, and Postoperative Course on 30-Day Outcomes of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Among Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Results From the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, ischemic heart failure, and coronary artery disease suitable for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are at higher risk for surgical morbidity and mortality. Paradoxically, those patients with the most severe coronary artery disease and ventricular dysfunction who derive the greatest clinical benefit from CABG are also at the greatest operative risk, which makes decision making regarding whether to proceed to surgery difficult in such patients. To better inform such decision making, we analyzed the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) CABG population for detailed information on perioperative risk and outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In both STICH trials (hypotheses), 2136 patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≤35% and coronary artery disease were allocated to medical therapy, CABG plus medical therapy, or CABG with surgical ventricular reconstruction. Relationships of baseline characteristics and operative conduct with morbidity and mortality at 30 days were evaluated. There were a total of 1460 patients randomized to and receiving surgery, and 346 (≈25%) of these high-risk patients developed a severe complication within 30 days. Worsening renal insufficiency, cardiac arrest with cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and ventricular arrhythmias were the most frequent complications and those most commonly associated with death. Mortality at 30 days was 5.1% and was generally preceded by a serious complication (65 of 74 deaths). Left ventricular size, renal dysfunction, advanced age, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were significant preoperative predictors of mortality within 30 days. Cardiopulmonary bypass time was the only independent surgical variable predictive of 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

CABG can be performed with relatively low 30-day mortality in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. Serious postoperative complications occurred in nearly 1 in 4 patients and were associated with mortality.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.

The MitraClip and survival in patients with mitral regurgitation at high risk for surgery: A propensity-matched comparison

BACKGROUND

We compared 30-day and 1-year survival among high-risk mitral regurgitation (MR) patients treated with the MitraClip (Abbott Vascular, Abbott Park, IL) with matched non-surgically treated patients from the Duke Echocardiography Laboratory Database (DELD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

High-risk patients with 3+/4+ MR managed non-surgically between years 2000 and 2010 in the longitudinal DELD were matched to high-risk MitraClip patients. Patient matching was performed using the method of nearest available Mahalanobis distance metric within calipers defined by the propensity score. Kaplan-Meier estimates and stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival at 30 days and 1 year. Among 953 high-risk DELD patients available for matching, 30-day and 1-year mortality were 6.5% and 26.2%. Close matches were obtained for 239 of the 351 MitraClip patients. The 30-day mortality in MitraClip patients was lower (4.2%) when compared with matched DELD patients (7.2%). The 1-year relative risk of mortality of the MitraClip compared with non-surgical treatment was 0.64 (95% CI 0.45-0.91; log-rank P = .013). These results in favor of the MitraClip remained significant upon further adjustment for baseline differences between groups (P = .043).

CONCLUSIONS

This matched comparison of severe MR patients at high surgical risk supports the safety of the MitraClip relative to medical therapy at 30 days and a survival benefit at 1 year.

Clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation according to sex during anticoagulation with apixaban or warfarin: a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

AIM

To assess clinical outcomes, efficacy, and safety according to sex during anticoagulation with apixaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial that included 11 785 (64.7%) men and 6416 (35.3%) women with atrial fibrillation or flutter randomized to receive either warfarin or apixaban. The primary efficacy endpoint was stroke or systemic embolism; secondary efficacy endpoints were death from any cause and cardiovascular death. The primary safety endpoint was major bleeding; secondary safety endpoints were a composite of major bleeding and non-major clinically relevant bleeding. The risk of stroke or systemic embolism was similar in women vs. men [adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR): 0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74-1.12; P = 0.38]. However, among patients with history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack, women had a lower risk of recurrent stroke compared with men (adjHR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.50-0.97; P = 0.036). Women also had a lower risk of all-cause death (adjHR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.55-0.73; P < 0.0001) and cardiovascular death (adjHR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.51-0.75; P < 0.0001), and a trend towards less major bleeding (adjHR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.74-1.01; P = 0.066) and major or non-major clinically relevant bleeding (adjHR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.80-1.00; P = 0.049). The efficacy and safety benefits of apixaban compared with warfarin were consistent regardless of sex.

CONCLUSION

In the ARISTOTLE trial, women had a similar rate of stroke or systemic embolism but a lower risk of mortality and less clinically relevant bleeding than men. The efficacy and safety benefits of apixaban compared with warfarin were consistent in men and women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ARISTOTLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00412984.

Intensification of Medication Therapy for Cardiorenal Syndrome in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Worsening renal function in heart failure may be related to increased venous congestion, decreased cardiac output, or both. Diuretics are universally used in acute decompensated heart failure, but they may be ineffective and may lead to azotemia. We aimed to compare the decongestive properties of a urine output-guided diuretic adjustment and standard therapy for the management of cardiorenal syndrome in acute decompensated heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were pooled from subjects randomized to the stepwise pharmacologic care algorithm (SPCA) in the CARRESS-HF trial and those who developed cardiorenal syndrome (rise in creatinine >0.3 mg/dL) in the DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF trials. Patients treated with SPCA (n = 94) were compared with patients treated with standard decongestive therapy (SDT) that included intravenous loop diuretic use (DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF; n = 107) at the time of cardiorenal syndrome and followed for net fluid balance, weight loss, and changing renal function. The SPCA group had higher degrees of jugular venous pressure (P < .0001) at the time of cardiorenal syndrome. The group that received SPCA had more weight change (-3.4 ± 5.2 lb) and more net fluid loss (1.705 ± 1.417 L) after 24 hours than the SDT group (-0.8 ± 3.4 lb and 0.892 ± 1.395 L, respectively; P < .001 for both) with a slight improvement in renal function (creatinine change -0.1 ± 0.3 vs 0.0 ± 0.3 mg/dL, respectively; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with SDT, patients who received an intensification of medication therapy for treating persisting congestion had greater net fluid and weight loss without being associated with renal compromise.

Digoxin use in patients with atrial fibrillation and adverse cardiovascular outcomes: a retrospective analysis of the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF)

BACKGROUND

Digoxin is a widely used drug for ventricular rate control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), despite a scarcity of randomised trial data. We studied the use and outcomes of digoxin in patients in the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF).

METHODS

For this retrospective analysis, we included and classified patients from ROCKET AF on the basis of digoxin use at baseline and during the study. Patients in ROCKET AF were recruited from 45 countries and had AF and risk factors putting them at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, with or without heart failure. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for baseline characteristics and drugs to investigate the association of digoxin with all-cause mortality, vascular death, and sudden death. ROCKET AF was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00403767.

FINDINGS

In 14,171 randomly assigned patients, digoxin was used at baseline in 5239 (37%). Patients given digoxin were more likely to be female (42% vs 38%) and have a history of heart failure (73% vs 56%), diabetes (43% vs 38%), and persistent AF (88% vs 77%; p<0·0001 for each comparison). After adjustment, digoxin was associated with increased all-cause mortality (5·41 vs 4·30 events per 100 patients-years; hazard ratio 1·17; 95% CI 1·04-1·32; p=0·0093), vascular death (3·55 vs 2·69 per 100 patient-years; 1·19; 1·03-1·39, p=0·0201), and sudden death (1·68 vs 1·12 events per 100 patient-years; 1·36; 1·08-1·70, p=0·0076).

INTERPRETATION

Digoxin treatment was associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality, vascular death, and sudden death in patients with AF. This association was independent of other measured prognostic factors, and although residual confounding could account for these results, these data show the possibility of digoxin having these effects. A randomised trial of digoxin in treatment of AF patients with and without heart failure is needed.

FUNDING

Janssen Research & Development and Bayer HealthCare AG.

Evaluation of the Incremental Prognostic Utility of Increasingly Complex Testing in Chronic Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Current heart failure (HF) risk prediction models do not consider how individual patient assessments occur in incremental steps; furthermore, each additional diagnostic evaluation may add cost, complexity, and potential morbidity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using a cohort of well-treated ambulatory HF patients with reduced ejection fraction who had complete clinical, laboratory, health-related quality of life, imaging, and exercise testing data, we estimated incremental prognostic information provided by 5 assessment categories, performing an additional analysis on those with available N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. We compared the incremental value of each additional assessment (quality of life screen, laboratory testing, echocardiography, and exercise testing) to baseline clinical assessment for predicting clinical outcomes (all-cause mortality, all-cause mortality/hospitalization, and cardiovascular death/HF hospitalizations), gauging incremental improvements in prognostic ability with more information using area under the curve and reclassification improvement (net reclassification index), with and without NT-proBNP availability. Of 2331 participants, 1631 patients had complete clinical data; of these, 1023 had baseline NT-proBNP. For prediction of all-cause mortality, models with incremental assessments sans NT-proBNP showed improvements in C-indices (0.72 [clinical model alone]-0.77 [complete model]). Compared with baseline clinical assessment alone, net reclassification index improved from 0.035 (w/laboratory data) to 0.085 (complete model). These improvements were significantly attenuated for models in the subset with measured NT-proBNP data (c-indices: 0.80 [w/laboratory data]-0.81 [full model]); net reclassification index improvements were similarly marginal (0.091→0.096); prediction of other clinical outcomes had similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In chronic HF patients with reduced ejection fraction, the marginal benefit of complex prognostic evaluations should be weighed against potential patient discomfort and cost escalation.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00047437.

Anticoagulant therapy and outcomes in patients with prior or acute heart failure and acute coronary syndromes: Insights from the APixaban for PRevention of Acute ISchemic Events 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Clinical outcomes and the effects of oral anticoagulants among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and either a history of or acute heart failure (HF) are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the relationship between prior HF or acute HF complicating an index ACS event and subsequent clinical outcomes and the efficacy and safety of apixaban compared with placebo in these populations.

METHODS

High-risk patients were randomly assigned post-ACS to apixaban 5.0 mg or placebo twice daily. Median follow-up was 8 (4-12) months. The primary outcome was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The main safety outcome was thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding.

RESULTS

Heart failure was reported in 2,995 patients (41%), either as prior HF (2,076 [28%]) or acute HF (2,028 [27%]). Patients with HF had a very high baseline risk and were more often managed medically. Heart failure was associated with a higher rate of the primary outcome (prior HF: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.42-2.10, P < .0001, acute HF: adjusted HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.35-2.01, P < .0001) and cardiovascular death (prior HF: HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.82-3.54, acute HF: adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.82-3.50). Patients with acute HF also had significantly higher rates of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding (prior HF: adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.65-2.27, P = .54, acute HF: adjusted HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.08, P = .04). There was no statistical evidence of a differential effect of apixaban on clinical events or bleeding in patients with or without prior HF; however, among patients with acute HF, there were numerically fewer events with apixaban than placebo (14.8 vs 19.3, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-1.01, interaction P = .13), a trend that was not seen in patients with prior HF or no HF.

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk patients post-ACS, both prior and acute HFs are associated with an increased risk of subsequent clinical events. Apixaban did not significantly reduce clinical events and increased bleeding in patients with and without HF; however, there was a tendency toward fewer clinical events with apixaban in patients with acute HF.

Decongestion strategies and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system activation in acute heart failure

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between biomarkers of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) activation and decongestion strategies, worsening renal function, and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND

High-dose diuretic therapy in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is thought to activate the RAAS; and alternative decongestion strategies, such as ultrafiltration (UF), have been proposed to mitigate this RAAS activation.

METHODS

This study analyzed 427 AHF patients enrolled in the DOSE-AHF (Diuretic Optimization Strategies in Acute Heart Failure) and CARRESS-HF (Cardiorenal Rescue Study in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure) trials. We assessed the relationship between 2 markers of RAAS activation (plasma renin activity [PRA] and aldosterone) from baseline to 72 h and 96 h and decongestion strategy: high- versus low-dose and continuous infusion versus bolus furosemide for DOSE-AHF and UF versus stepped pharmacologic care for CARRESS-HF. We determined the relationships between RAAS biomarkers and 60-day outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients with greater RAAS activation at baseline had lower blood pressures, lower serum sodium levels, and higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN) concentration. Continuous infusion furosemide and UF were associated with greater PRA increases (median: +1.66 vs. +0.66 ng/ml/h with continuous vs. bolus infusion, respectively, p = 0.021; +4.05 vs. +0.56 ng/ml/h with UF vs. stepped care, respectively, p = 0.014). There were no significant differences in RAAS biomarker changes with high- versus low-dose diuretic therapy (both: p > 0.5). Neither baseline log PRA nor log aldosterone was associated with increased death or HF hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR] for a doubling of 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98 to 1.13; p = 0.18; and HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.28; p = 0.069, respectively). The change in RAAS biomarkers from baseline to 72 and 96 h was not associated with outcomes (both: p > 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

High-dose loop diuretic therapy did not result in RAAS activation greater than that with low-dose diuretic therapy. UF resulted in greater PRA increase than stepped pharmacologic care. Neither PRA nor aldosterone was significantly associated with short-term outcomes in this cohort. (Determining Optimal Dose and Duration of Diuretic Treatment in People With Acute Heart Failure [DOSE-AHF]; NCT00577135; Effectiveness of Ultrafiltration in Treating People With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure and Cardiorenal Syndrome [CARRESS]; NCT00608491).

Clinical characteristics and outcomes with rivaroxaban vs. warfarin in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation but underlying native mitral and aortic valve disease participating in the ROCKET AF trial

Aims

We investigated clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with significant valvular disease (SVD) in the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) trial.

Methods and results

ROCKET AF excluded patients with mitral stenosis or artificial valve prostheses. We used Cox regression to adjust comparisons for potential confounders. Among 14 171 patients, 2003 (14.1%) had SVD; they were older and had more comorbidities than patients without SVD. The rate of stroke or systemic embolism with rivaroxaban vs. warfarin was consistent among patients with SVD [2.01 vs. 2.43%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55–1.27] and without SVD (1.96 vs. 2.22%; HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75–1.07; interaction P = 0.76). However, rates of major and non-major clinically relevant bleeding with rivaroxaban vs. warfarin were higher in patients with SVD (19.8% rivaroxaban vs. 16.8% warfarin; HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.05–1.49) vs. those without (14.2% rivaroxaban vs. 14.1% warfarin; HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.94–1.10; interaction P = 0.034), even when controlling for risk factors and potential confounders. In intracranial haemorrhage, there was no interaction between patients with and without SVD where the overall rate was lower among those randomized to rivaroxaban.

Conclusions

Many patients with ‘non-valvular atrial fibrillation’ have significant valve lesions. Their risk of stroke is similar to that of patients without SVD after controlling for stroke risk factors. Efficacy of rivaroxaban vs. warfarin was similar in patients with and without SVD; however, the observed risk of bleeding was higher with rivaroxaban in patients with SVD but was the same among those without SVD. Atrial fibrillation patients with and without SVD experience the same stroke-preventive benefit of oral anticoagulants.

Extent of coronary artery disease and outcomes after ticagrelor administration in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: Insights from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial

BACKGROUND

Extensive coronary artery disease (CAD) is associated with higher risk. In this substudy of the PLATO trial, we examined the effects of randomized treatment on outcome events and safety in relation to the extent of CAD.

METHODS

Patients were classified according to presence of extensive CAD (defined as 3-vessel disease, left main disease, or prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery). The trial's primary and secondary end points were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Among 15,388 study patients for whom the extent of CAD was known, 4,646 (30%) had extensive CAD. Patients with extensive CAD had more high-risk characteristics and experienced more clinical events during follow-up. They were less likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (58% vs 79%, P < .001) but more likely to undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (16% vs 2%, P < .001). Ticagrelor, compared with clopidogrel, reduced the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with extensive CAD (14.9% vs 17.6%, hazard ratio [HR] 0.85 [0.73-0.98]) similar to its reduction in those without extensive CAD (6.8% vs 8.0%, HR 0.85 [0.74-0.98], Pinteraction = .99). Major bleeding was similar with ticagrelor vs clopidogrel among patients with (25.7% vs 25.5%, HR 1.02 [0.90-1.15]) and without (7.3% vs 6.4%, HR 1.14 [0.98-1.33], Pinteraction = .24) extensive CAD.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with extensive CAD have higher rates of recurrent cardiovascular events and bleeding. Ticagrelor reduced ischemic events to a similar extent both in patients with and without extensive CAD, with bleeding rates similar to clopidogrel.