Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Anopheles aquatic development kinetic and adults' longevity through different seasons in laboratory and semi-field conditions in Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Anopheles mosquitoes are ectothermic and involved in numerous pathogen transmissions. Their life history traits are influenced by several environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity and photoperiodicity. Despite extensive investigations of these environmental conditions on vector population ecology, their impact on the different life stages of Anopheles at different seasons in the year remains poorly explored. This study reports the potential impact of these abiotic factors on the immature and adult stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato during different seasons.

METHODS

Environmental conditions were simulated in the laboratory using incubators to mimic the environmental conditions of two important periods of the year in Burkina Faso: the peak of rainy season (August) and the onset of dry season (December). Eggs from wild An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.l. were reared separately under each environmental condition. For Anopheles coluzzii or An. gambiae s.l., eggs were equally divided into two groups assigned to the two experimental conditions. Four replicates were carried out for this experiment. Then, egg hatching rate, pupation rate, larval development time, larva-to-pupae development time, adult emergence dynamics and longevity of Anopheles were evaluated. Also, pupae-to-adult development time from wild L3 and L4 Anopheles larvae was estimated under semi-field conditions in December.

RESULTS

A better egg hatching rate was recorded overall with conditions mimicking the onset of the dry season compared to the peak of the rainy season. Larval development time and longevity of An. gambiae s.l. female were significantly longer at the onset of the dry season compared than at the peak of the rainy season. Adult emergence was spread over 48 and 96 h at the peak of the rainy season and onset of dry season conditions respectively. This 96h duration in the controlled conditions of December was also observed in the semi-field conditions in December.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of temperature and relative humidity on immature stages and longevity of An. gambiae s.l. adult females differed under both conditions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of vector population dynamics throughout different seasons of the year and may facilitate tailoring of control strategies.

Evaluating the attrition, fabric integrity and insecticidal durability of two dual active ingredient nets (Interceptor® G2 and Royal® Guard): methodology for a prospective study embedded in a cluster randomized controlled trial in Benin

BACKGROUND

Following the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsement of dual active ingredient (AI) nets, an increased uptake of pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr and pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen nets is expected. Studies evaluating their physical and insecticidal durability are essential for making programmatic and procurement decisions. This paper describes the methodology for a prospective study to evaluate the attrition, fabric integrity, insecticidal durability of Interceptor® G2 (alpha-cypermethrin-chlorfenapyr) and Royal Guard® (alpha-cypermethrin-pyriproxyfen), compared to Interceptor® (alpha-cypermethrin), embedded in a 3-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in the Zou Department of Benin.

METHODS

Ten clusters randomly selected from each arm of the cRCT will be used for the study. A total of 750 ITNs per type will be followed in 5 study clusters per arm to assess ITN attrition and fabric integrity at 6-, 12-, 24- and 36-months post distribution, using standard WHO procedures. A second cohort of 1800 nets per type will be withdrawn every 6 months from all 10 clusters per arm and assessed for chemical content and biological activity in laboratory bioassays at each time point. Alpha-cypermethrin bioefficacy in Interceptor® and Royal Guard® will be monitored in WHO cone bioassays and tunnel tests using the susceptible Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain. The bioefficacy of the non-pyrethroid insecticides (chlorfenapyr in Interceptor® G2 and pyriproxyfen in Royal Guard®) will be monitored using the pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles coluzzii Akron strain. Chlorfenapyr activity will be assessed in tunnel tests while pyriproxyfen activity will be assessed in cone bioassays in terms of the reduction in fertility of blood-fed survivors observed by dissecting mosquito ovaries. Nets withdrawn at 12, 24 and 36 months will be tested in experimental hut trials within the cRCT study area against wild free-flying pyrethroid resistant An. gambiae sensu lato to investigate their superiority to Interceptor® and to compare them to ITNs washed 20 times for experimental hut evaluation studies. Mechanistic models will also be used to investigate whether entomological outcomes with each dual ITN type in experimental hut trials can predict their epidemiological performance in the cRCT.

CONCLUSION

This study will provide information on the durability of two dual AI nets (Interceptor® G2 and Royal Guard®) in Benin and will help identify suitable methods for monitoring the durability of their insecticidal activity under operational conditions. The modelling component will determine the capacity of experimental hut trials to predict the epidemiological performance of dual AI nets across their lifespan.

Delftia tsuruhatensis TC1 symbiont suppresses malaria transmission by anopheline mosquitoes

Malaria control demands the development of a wide range of complementary strategies. We describe the properties of a naturally occurring, non-genetically modified symbiotic bacterium, Delftia tsuruhatensis TC1, which was isolated from mosquitoes incapable of sustaining the development of Plasmodium falciparum parasites. D. tsuruhatensis TC1 inhibits early stages of Plasmodium development and subsequent transmission by the Anopheles mosquito through secretion of a small-molecule inhibitor. We have identified this inhibitor to be the hydrophobic molecule harmane. We also found that, on mosquito contact, harmane penetrates the cuticle, inhibiting Plasmodium development. D. tsuruhatensis TC1 stably populates the mosquito gut, does not impose a fitness cost on the mosquito, and inhibits Plasmodium development for the mosquito's life. Contained field studies in Burkina Faso and modeling showed that D. tsuruhatensis TC1 has the potential to complement mosquito-targeted malaria transmission control.

Modeling the Impact of a Highly Potent Plasmodium falciparum Transmission-Blocking Monoclonal Antibody in Areas of Seasonal Malaria Transmission

Transmission-blocking interventions can play an important role in combating malaria worldwide. Recently, a highly potent Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking monoclonal antibody (TB31F) was demonstrated to be safe and efficacious in malaria-naive volunteers. Here we predict the potential public health impact of large-scale implementation of TB31F alongside existing interventions. We developed a pharmaco-epidemiological model, tailored to 2 settings of differing transmission intensity with already established insecticide-treated nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention interventions. Community-wide annual administration (at 80% coverage) of TB31F over a 3-year period was predicted to reduce clinical incidence by 54% (381 cases averted per 1000 people per year) in a high-transmission seasonal setting, and 74% (157 cases averted per 1000 people per year) in a low-transmission seasonal setting. Targeting school-aged children gave the largest reduction in terms of cases averted per dose. An annual administration of the transmission-blocking monoclonal antibody TB31F may be an effective intervention against malaria in seasonal malaria settings.

Characterising the intensity of insecticide resistance: A novel framework for analysis of intensity bioassay data

Insecticide resistance is a growing problem that risks harming the progress made by vector control tools in reducing the malaria burden globally. New methods for quantifying the extent of resistance in wild populations are urgently needed to guide deployment of interventions to improve disease control. Intensity bioassays measure mosquito mortality at a range of insecticide doses and characterise phenotypic resistance in regions where resistance is already detected. These data are increasingly being collected but tend to exhibit high measurement error and there is a lack of formal guidelines on how they should be analysed or compared. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for analysing intensity bioassay data, which uses a flexible statistical model able to capture a wide variety of relationships between mortality and insecticide dose. By accounting for background mortality of mosquitoes, our approach minimises the impact of this source of measurement noise resulting in more precise quantification of resistance. It outputs a range of metrics for describing the intensity and variability in resistance within the sample and quantifies the level of measurement error in the assay. The functionality is illustrated with data from laboratory-reared mosquitoes to show how the lethal dose varies within and between different strains. The framework can also be used to formally test hypotheses by explicitly considering the high heterogeneity seen in these types of data in field samples. Here we show that the intensity of resistance (as measured by the median lethal dose (LC50) of insecticide) increases over 7 years in mosquitoes from one village in Burkina Faso but remains constant in another. This work showcases the benefits of statistically rigorous analysis of insecticide bioassay data and highlights the additional information available from this and other dose-response data.

Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria

Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) provide both direct and indirect protection against malaria. As pyrethroid resistance evolves in mosquito vectors, it will be useful to understand how the specific benefits LLINs afford individuals and communities may be affected. Here we use modelling to show that there is no minimum LLIN usage needed for users and non-users to benefit from community protection. Modelling results also indicate that pyrethroid resistance in local mosquitoes will likely diminish the direct and indirect benefits from insecticides, leaving the barrier effects intact, but LLINs are still expected to provide enhanced benefit over untreated nets even at high levels of pyrethroid resistance.

A new WHO bottle bioassay method to assess the susceptibility of mosquito vectors to public health insecticides: results from a WHO-coordinated multi-centre study

BACKGROUND

The continued spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors of malaria and arboviral diseases may lead to operational failure of insecticide-based interventions if resistance is not monitored and managed efficiently. This study aimed to develop and validate a new WHO glass bottle bioassay method as an alternative to the WHO standard insecticide tube test to monitor mosquito susceptibility to new public health insecticides with particular modes of action, physical properties or both.

METHODS

A multi-centre study involving 21 laboratories worldwide generated data on the susceptibility of seven mosquito species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto [An. gambiae s.s.], Anopheles funestus, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles albimanus) to seven public health insecticides in five classes, including pyrethroids (metofluthrin, prallethrin and transfluthrin), neonicotinoids (clothianidin), pyrroles (chlorfenapyr), juvenile hormone mimics (pyriproxyfen) and butenolides (flupyradifurone), in glass bottle assays. The data were analysed using a Bayesian binomial model to determine the concentration-response curves for each insecticide-species combination and to assess the within-bioassay variability in the susceptibility endpoints, namely the concentration that kills 50% and 99% of the test population (LC₅₀ and LC₉₉, respectively) and the concentration that inhibits oviposition of the test population by 50% and 99% (OI₅₀ and OI₉₉), to measure mortality and the sterilizing effect, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, about 200,000 mosquitoes were tested with the new bottle bioassay, and LC₅₀/LC₉₉ or OI₅₀/OI₉₉ values were determined for all insecticides. Variation was seen between laboratories in estimates for some mosquito species-insecticide combinations, while other test results were consistent. The variation was generally greater with transfluthrin and flupyradifurone than with the other compounds tested, especially against Anopheles species. Overall, the mean within-bioassay variability in mortality and oviposition inhibition were < 10% for most mosquito species-insecticide combinations.

CONCLUSION

Our findings, based on the largest susceptibility dataset ever produced on mosquitoes, showed that the new WHO bottle bioassay is adequate for evaluating mosquito susceptibility to new and promising public health insecticides currently deployed for vector control. The datasets presented in this study have been used recently by the WHO to establish 17 new insecticide discriminating concentrations (DCs) for either Aedes spp. or Anopheles spp. The bottle bioassay and DCs can now be widely used to monitor baseline insecticide susceptibility of wild populations of vectors of malaria and Aedes-borne diseases worldwide.

Adapting field-mosquito collection techniques in a perspective of near-infrared spectroscopy implementation

BACKGROUND

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has the potential to be a useful tool for assessing key entomological parameters of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes, including age, infectious status and species identity. However, before NIRS can be reliably used in the field at scale, methods for killing mosquitoes and conserving samples prior to NIRS scanning need to be further optimized. Historically, mosquitoes used in studies have been killed with chloroform, although this approach is not without health hazards and should not be used in human dwellings. For the application of NIRS scanning it is also unclear which mosquito preservation method to use. The aim of the study reported here was to investigate the use of pyrethrum spray, a commercially available insecticide spray in Burkina Faso, for killing mosquitoes METHODS: Laboratory-reared Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii were killed using either a pyrethrum insecticide spray routinely used in studies involving indoor mosquito collections (Kaltox Paalga®; Saphyto, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso) or chloroform ("gold standard"). Preservative methods were also investigated to determine their impact on NIRS accuracy in predicting the species of laboratory-reared Anopheles and wild-caught mosquito species. After analysis of fresh samples, mosquitoes were stored in 80% ethanol or in silica gel for 2 weeks and re-analyzed by NIRS. In addition, experimentally infected An. coluzzii and wild-caught An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) were scanned as fresh samples to determine whether they contained sporozoites, then stored in the preservatives mentioned above for 2 weeks before being re-analyzed.

RESULTS

The difference in the accuracy of NIRS to differentiate between laboratory-reared An. gambiae mosquitoes and An. coluzzii mosquitoes killed with either insecticide (90%) or chloroform (92%) was not substantial. NIRS had an accuracy of 90% in determining mosquito species for mosquitoes killed with chloroform and preserved in ethanol or silica gel. The accuracy was the same when the pyrethrum spray was used to kill mosquitoes followed by preservation in silica gel, but was lower when ethanol was used as a preservative (80%). Regarding infection status, NIRS was able to differentiate between infected and uninfected mosquitoes, with a slightly lower accuracy for both laboratory and wild-caught mosquitoes preserved in silica gel or ethanol.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that NIRS can be used to classify An. gambiae s.l. species killed by pyrethrum spray with no loss of accuracy. This insecticide may have practical advantages over chloroform for the killing of mosquitoes in NIRS analysis.

Back to the Future: Quantifying Wing Wear as a Method to Measure Mosquito Age

Vector biologists have long sought the ability to accurately quantify the age of wild mosquito populations, a metric used to measure vector control efficiency. This has proven difficult due to the difficulties of working in the field and the biological complexities of wild mosquitoes. Ideal age grading techniques must overcome both challenges while also providing epidemiologically relevant age measurements. Given these requirements, the Detinova parity technique, which estimates age from the mosquito ovary and tracheole skein morphology, has been most often used for mosquito age grading despite significant limitations, including being based solely on the physiology of ovarian development. Here, we have developed a modernized version of the original mosquito aging method that evaluated wing wear, expanding it to estimate mosquito chronological age from wing scale loss. We conducted laboratory experiments using adult Anopheles gambiae held in insectary cages or mesocosms, the latter of which also featured ivermectin bloodmeal treatments to change the population age structure. Mosquitoes were age graded by parity assessments and both human- and computational-based wing evaluations. Although the Detinova technique was not able to detect differences in age population structure between treated and control mesocosms, significant differences were apparent using the wing scale technique. Analysis of wing images using averaged left- and right-wing pixel intensity scores predicted mosquito age at high accuracy (overall test accuracy: 83.4%, average training accuracy: 89.7%). This suggests that this technique could be an accurate and practical tool for mosquito age grading though further evaluation in wild mosquito populations is required.

Durability of three types of dual active ingredient long-lasting insecticidal net compared to a pyrethroid-only LLIN in Tanzania: methodology for a prospective cohort study nested in a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Progress achieved by long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against malaria is threatened by widespread selection of pyrethroid resistance among vector populations. LLINs with non-pyrethroid insecticides are urgently needed. This study aims to assess the insecticide and textile durability of three classes of dual-active ingredient (A.I.) LLINs using techniques derived from established WHO LLIN testing methods to set new standards of evaluation.

METHODS

A WHO Phase 3 active ingredients and textile durability study will be carried out within a cluster randomized controlled trial in 40 clusters in Misungwi district, Tanzania. The following treatments will be evaluated: (1) Interceptor®G2 combining chlorfenapyr and the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin, (2) Royal Guard® treated with pyriproxyfen and alpha-cypermethrin, (3) Olyset™ Plus which incorporates a synergist piperonyl butoxide and the pyrethroid permethrin, and (4) a reference standard alpha-cypermethrin only LLIN (Interceptor®). 750 nets will be followed in 5 clusters per intervention arm at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post distribution for survivorship and hole index assessment. A second cohort of 1950 nets per net type will be identified in 10 clusters, of which 30 LLINs will be withdrawn for bio-efficacy and chemical analysis every 6 months up to 36 months and another 30 collected for experimental hut trials every year. Bio-efficacy will be assessed using cone bioassays and tunnel tests against susceptible and resistant laboratory strains of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Efficacy of field-collected nets will be compared in six experimental huts. The main outcomes will be Anopheles mortality up to 72 h post exposure, blood feeding and egg maturation using ovary dissection to assess impact on fecundity.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings will help develop bio-efficacy and physical durability criteria for partner A.I., in relation to the cRCT epidemiological and entomological outcomes, and refine preferred product characteristics of each class of LLIN. If suitable, the bioassay and hut outcomes will be fitted to transmission models to estimate correlation with cRCT outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03554616.

Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study

BACKGROUND

Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use.

METHODS

We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors.

FINDINGS

Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget.

INTERPRETATION

The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, IVCC, Wellcome Trust.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in south-west Burkina Faso: potential impact of expanding eligibility for seasonal malaria chemoprevention

Burkina Faso has one of the highest malaria burdens in sub-Saharan Africa despite the mass deployment of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in children aged up to 5 years. Identification of risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in rural Burkina Faso could help to identify and target malaria control measures. A cross-sectional survey of 1,199 children and adults was conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in the Cascades Region of south-west Burkina Faso in 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for microscopically confirmed P. falciparum infection. A malaria transmission dynamic model was used to determine the impact on malaria cases averted of administering SMC to children aged 5-15 year old. P. falciparum prevalence was 32.8% in the study population. Children aged 5 to < 10 years old were at 3.74 times the odds (95% CI = 2.68-5.22, P < 0.001) and children aged 10 to 15 years old at 3.14 times the odds (95% CI = 1.20-8.21, P = 0.02) of P. falciparum infection compared to children aged less than 5 years old. Administration of SMC to children aged up to 10 years is predicted to avert an additional 57 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (9.4% reduction) and administration to children aged up to 15 years would avert an additional 89 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (14.6% reduction) in the Cascades Region, assuming current coverage of pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide ITNs. Malaria infections were high in all age strata, although highest in children aged 5 to 15 years, despite roll out of core malaria control interventions. Given the burden of infection in school-age children, extension of the eligibility criteria for SMC could help reduce the burden of malaria in Burkina Faso and other countries in the region.

Comparative efficacy of two pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide nets (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) against pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors: a non-inferiority assessment

BACKGROUND

Pyrethroid-PBO nets were conditionally recommended for control of malaria transmitted by mosquitoes with oxidase-based pyrethroid-resistance based on epidemiological evidence of additional protective effect with Olyset Plus compared to a pyrethroid-only net (Olyset Net). Entomological studies can be used to assess the comparative performance of other brands of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to Olyset Plus.

METHODS

An experimental hut trial was performed in Cové, Benin to compare PermaNet 3.0 (deltamethrin plus PBO on roof panel only) to Olyset Plus (permethrin plus PBO on all panels) against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Both nets were tested unwashed and after 20 standardized washes compared to Olyset Net. Laboratory bioassays were also performed to help explain findings in the experimental huts.

RESULTS

With unwashed nets, mosquito mortality was higher in huts with PermaNet 3.0 compared to Olyset Plus (41% vs. 28%, P < 0.001). After 20 washes, mortality declined significantly with PermaNet 3.0 (41% unwashed vs. 17% after washing P < 0.001), but not with Olyset Plus (28% unwashed vs. 24% after washing P = 0.433); Olyset Plus induced significantly higher mortality than PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Net after 20 washes. PermaNet 3.0 showed a higher wash retention of PBO compared to Olyset Plus. A non-inferiority analysis performed with data from unwashed and washed nets together using a margin recommended by the WHO, showed that PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in terms of mosquito mortality (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 27% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.528, 95%CI = 1.02-2.29) but not in reducing mosquito feeding (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 30% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.192, 95%CI = 0.77-1.84). Both pyrethroid-PBO nets were superior to Olyset Net.

CONCLUSION

Olyset Plus outperformed PermaNet 3.0 in terms of its ability to cause greater margins of improved mosquito mortality compared to a standard pyrethroid net, after multiple standardized washes. However, using a margin of non-inferiority defined by the WHO, PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in inducing mosquito mortality. Considering the low levels of mortality observed and increasing pyrethroid-resistance in West Africa, it is unclear whether either of these nets would demonstrate the same epidemiological impact observed in community trials in East Africa.

Review and Meta-Analysis of the Evidence for Choosing between Specific Pyrethroids for Programmatic Purposes

Simple Summary

A group of insecticides, called pyrethroids, are the main strategy for controlling the mosquito vectors of malaria. Pyrethroids are used in all insecticide-treated bednets, and many indoor residual spray programmes (in which insecticides are sprayed on the interior walls of houses). There are different types of pyrethroids within the class (e.g., deltamethrin and permethrin). Across the world, mosquitoes are showing signs of resistance to the pyrethroids, such as reduced mortality following contact. However, it is unclear if this resistance is uniform across the pyrethroid class (i.e., if a mosquito is resistant to deltamethrin, whether it is resistant to permethrin at the same level). In addition, it is not known if switching between different pyrethroids can be used to effectively maintain mosquito control when resistance to a single pyrethroid has been detected. This review examined the evidence from molecular studies, resistance testing from laboratory and field data, and mosquito behavioural assays to answer these questions. The evidence suggested that in areas where pyrethroid resistance exists, different mortality seen between the pyrethroids is not necessarily indicative of an operationally relevant difference in control performance, and there is no reason to rotate between common pyrethroids (i.e., deltamethrin, permethrin, and alpha-cypermethrin) as an insecticide resistance management strategy.

Abstract

Pyrethroid resistance is widespread in malaria vectors. However, differential mortality in discriminating dose assays to different pyrethroids is often observed in wild populations. When this occurs, it is unclear if this differential mortality should be interpreted as an indication of differential levels of susceptibility within the pyrethroid class, and if so, if countries should consider selecting one specific pyrethroid for programmatic use over another. A review of evidence from molecular studies, resistance testing with laboratory colonies and wild populations, and mosquito behavioural assays were conducted to answer these questions. Evidence suggested that in areas where pyrethroid resistance exists, different results in insecticide susceptibility assays with specific pyrethroids currently in common use (deltamethrin, permethrin, α-cypermethrin, and λ-cyhalothrin) are not necessarily indicative of an operationally relevant difference in potential performance. Consequently, it is not advisable to use rotation between these pyrethroids as an insecticide-resistance management strategy. Less commonly used pyrethroids (bifenthrin and etofenprox) may have sufficiently different modes of action, though further work is needed to examine how this may apply to insecticide resistance management.

Systematic review of the entomological impact of insecticide-treated nets evaluated using experimental hut trials in Africa

Resistance of anopheline mosquitoes to pyrethroid insecticides is spreading rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa, diminishing the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) - the primary tool for preventing malaria. The entomological efficacy of indoor vector control interventions can be measured in experimental hut trials (EHTs), where hut structures resemble local housing, but allow the collection of mosquitoes that entered, exited, blood-fed and/or died. There is a need to understand how the spread of resistance changes ITN efficacy and to elucidate factors influencing EHT results, including differences in experimental hut design, to support the development of novel vector control tools. A comprehensive database of EHTs was compiled following a systematic review to identify all known trials investigating ITNs or indoor residual spraying across sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis focuses on EHTs investigating ITNs and uses Bayesian statistical models to characterise the complex interaction between ITNs and mosquitoes, the between-study variability, and the impact of pyrethroid resistance. As resistance rises, the entomological efficacy of ITNs declines. They induce less mortality and are less likely to deter mosquitoes from entering huts. Despite this, ITNs continue to offer considerable personal protection by reducing mosquito feeding until resistance reaches high levels. There are clear associations between the different entomological impacts of ITNs, though there is still substantial variability between studies, some of which can be accounted for by hut design. The relationship between EHT outcomes and the level of resistance (as measured by discriminating dose bioassays) is highly uncertain. The meta-analyses show that EHTs are an important reproducible assay for capturing the complex entomological efficacy of ITNs on blood-feeding mosquitoes. The impact of pyrethroid resistance on these measures appears broadly consistent across a wide geographical area once hut design is accounted for, suggesting results can be extrapolated beyond the sites where the trials were conducted. Further work is needed to understand factors influencing EHT outcomes and how the relationship between outcomes and resistance varies when different methods are used to assess the level of resistance in wild mosquito populations. This will allow more precise estimates of the efficacy of these important vector control tools.

Monoclonal antibodies block transmission of genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum strains to mosquitoes

Malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes relies on the uptake of sexual stage parasites during a blood meal and subsequent formation of oocysts on the mosquito midgut wall. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) target sexual stage antigens to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission and may form important tools for malaria elimination. Although most epitopes of these antigens are considered highly conserved, little is known about the impact of natural genetic diversity on the functional activity of transmission-blocking antibodies. Here we measured the efficacy of three mAbs against leading TBV candidates (Pfs48/45, Pfs25 and Pfs230) in transmission assays with parasites from naturally infected donors compared to their efficacy against the strain they were raised against (NF54). Transmission-reducing activity (TRA) was measured as reduction in mean oocyst intensity. mAb 45.1 (α-Pfs48/45) and mAb 4B7 (α-Pfs25) reduced transmission of field parasites from almost all donors with IC80 values similar to NF54. Sequencing of oocysts that survived high mAb concentrations did not suggest enrichment of escape genotypes. mAb 2A2 (α-Pfs230) only reduced transmission of parasites from a minority of the donors, suggesting that it targets a non-conserved epitope. Using six laboratory-adapted strains, we revealed that mutations in one Pfs230 domain correlate with mAb gamete surface binding and functional TRA. Our findings demonstrate that, despite the conserved nature of sexual stage antigens, minor sequence variation can significantly impact the efficacy of transmission-blocking mAbs. Since mAb 45.1 shows high potency against genetically diverse strains, our findings support its further clinical development and may inform Pfs48/45 vaccine design.

Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes as Vectors of Plasmodium vivax and falciparum, Horn of Africa, 2019

Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, efficient vectors in parts of Asia and Africa, were found in 75.3% of water sources surveyed and contributed to 80.9% of wild-caught Anopheles mosquitoes in Awash Sebat Kilo, Ethiopia. High susceptibility of these mosquitoes to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection presents a challenge for malaria control in the Horn of Africa.

Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BACKGROUND

As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island.

METHODS

We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout.

RESULTS

C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign.

CONCLUSIONS

Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine

Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to translate the laboratory-estimated activity into an estimated activity in the field. A transmission dynamics model is then utilised to predict a transmission-blocking vaccine's public health impact alongside existing interventions. The model suggests that school-aged children are an attractive population to target for vaccination. Benefits of vaccination are distributed across the population, averting the greatest number of cases in younger children. Utilising a transmission-blocking vaccine alongside existing interventions could have a substantial impact against malaria.

Assessing the impact of low-technology emanators alongside long-lasting insecticidal nets to control malaria

Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa relies on the widespread use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or the indoor residual spraying of insecticide. Disease transmission may be maintained even when these indoor interventions are universally used as some mosquitoes will bite in the early morning and evening when people are outside. As countries seek to eliminate malaria, they can target outdoor biting using new vector control tools such as spatial repellent emanators, which emit airborne insecticide to form a protective area around the user. Field data are used to incorporate a low-technology emanator into a mathematical model of malaria transmission to predict its public health impact across a range of scenarios. Targeting outdoor biting by repeatedly distributing emanators alongside LLINs increases the chance of elimination, but the additional benefit depends on the level of anthropophagy in the local mosquito population, emanator effectiveness and the pre-intervention proportion of mosquitoes biting outdoors. High proportions of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes diminish LLIN impact because of reduced mosquito mortality. When mosquitoes are highly anthropophagic, this reduced mortality leads to more outdoor biting and a reduced additional benefit of emanators, even if emanators are assumed to retain their effectiveness in the presence of pyrethroid resistance. Different target product profiles are examined, which show the extra epidemiological benefits of spatial repellents that induce mosquito mortality. This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony

During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIPx. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP10 and EIP90 (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP50 from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.

The entomological impact of passive metofluthrin emanators against indoor Aedes aegypti: A randomized field trial

Background

In the absence of vaccines or drugs, insecticides are the mainstay of Aedes-borne disease control. Their utility is challenged by the slow deployment of resources, poor community compliance and inadequate household coverage. Novel application methods are required.

Methodology and principal findings

A 10% w/w metofluthrin “emanator” that passively disseminates insecticide from an impregnated net was evaluated in a randomized trial of 200 houses in Mexico. The devices were introduced at a rate of 1 per room and replaced at 3-week intervals. During each of 7 consecutive deployment cycles, indoor resting mosquitoes were sampled using aspirator collections. Assessments of mosquito landing behaviours were made in a subset of houses. Pre-treatment, there were no differences in Aedes aegypti indices between houses recruited to the control and treatment arms. Immediately after metofluthrin deployment, the entomological indices between the trial arms diverged. Averaged across the trial, there were significant reductions in Abundance Rate Ratios for total Ae. aegypti, female abundance and females that contained blood meals (2.5, 2.4 and 2.3-times fewer mosquitoes respectively; P<0.001). Average efficacy was 60.2% for total adults, 58.3% for females, and 57.2% for blood-fed females. The emanators also reduced mosquito landings by 90% from 12.5 to 1.2 per 10-minute sampling period (P<0.05). Homozygous forms of the pyrethroid resistant kdr alleles V410L, V1016L and F1534C were common in the target mosquito population; found in 39%, 24% and 95% of mosquitoes collected during the trial.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impact of any volatile pyrethroid on urban Ae. aegypti. It demonstrates that volatile pyrethroids can have a sustained impact on Ae. aegypti population densities and human-vector contact indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistant alleles in the target population. Formulations like these may have considerable utility for public health vector control responses.

Insecticidal control tools are heavily relied on for the control of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, but the logistics associated with conventional insecticide use (e.g. space sprays and residual formulations) are challenging. Considerable time and resources are required to treat household interiors; an impediment exacerbated by the difficulty in gaining entrance to households, and sometimes by limited compliance in the community. Another constraint to effective insecticide use is that many mosquito populations are resistant to the chemicals used. Volatile pyrethroids, exhibiting both lethal and behavioural effects on mosquitoes are available in formulations that release insecticides passively to the air, at room temperature. These may be suitable for deployment in houses with the aim of creating “bite-free” spaces. By removing the need for conventional application methods, these devices might be rapidly deployed with minimum disruption to households. This is the first large-scale, randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impacts of volatile pyrethroids in an urban environment. Using metofluthrin as an example, we confirm that some formulations have a significant impact on Aedes aegypti densities and landing behaviour indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistance alleles associated with conventional insecticide resistance.

Transmission-blocking Effects of Primaquine and Methylene Blue Suggest Plasmodium falciparum Gametocyte Sterilization Rather Than Effects on Sex Ratio

Gametocyte density and sex ratio can predict the proportion of mosquitoes that will become infected after feeding on blood of patients receiving nongametocytocidal drugs. Because primaquine and methylene blue sterilize gametocytes before affecting their density and sex ratio, mosquito feeding experiments are required to demonstrate their early transmission-blocking effects.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years.

METHODS

Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics.

INTERPRETATION

Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa

The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising¹. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-2^2,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed⁴. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)⁵, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.

The influence of feeding behaviour and temperature on the capacity of mosquitoes to transmit malaria

Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria transmission by limiting contact between mosquito vectors and human hosts when mosquitoes feed during the night. However, malaria vectors can also feed in the early evening and in the morning when people are not protected. Here, we explored how the timing of blood feeding interacts with environmental temperature to influence the capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes to transmit the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. In laboratory experiments, we found no effect of biting time itself on the proportion of mosquitoes that became infectious (vector competence) at constant temperature. However, when mosquitoes were maintained under more realistic fluctuating temperatures, there was a significant increase in competence for mosquitoes feeding in the evening (18:00), and a significant reduction in competence for those feeding in the morning (06:00), relative to those feeding at midnight (00:00). These effects appear to be due to thermal sensitivity of malaria parasites during the initial stages of parasite development within the mosquito, and the fact that mosquitoes feeding in the evening experience cooling temperatures during the night, whereas mosquitoes feeding in the morning quickly experience warming temperatures that are inhibitory to parasite establishment. A transmission dynamics model illustrates that such differences in competence could have important implications for malaria prevalence, the extent of transmission that persists in the presence of bed nets, and the epidemiological impact of behavioural resistance. These results indicate that the interaction of temperature and feeding behaviour could be a major ecological determinant of the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes.

Ability of near-infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics to predict the age of mosquitoes reared under different conditions

Background

Practical, field-ready age-grading tools for mosquito vectors of disease are urgently needed because of the impact that daily survival has on vectorial capacity. Previous studies have shown that near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), in combination with chemometrics and predictive modeling, can forecast the age of laboratory-reared mosquitoes with moderate to high accuracy. It remains unclear whether the technique has utility for identifying shifts in the age structure of wild-caught mosquitoes. Here we investigate whether models derived from the laboratory strain of mosquitoes can be used to predict the age of mosquitoes grown from pupae collected in the field.

Methods

NIRS data from adult female Aedes albopictus mosquitoes reared in the laboratory (2, 5, 8, 12 and 15 days-old) were analysed against spectra from mosquitoes emerging from wild-caught pupae (1, 7 and 14 days-old). Different partial least squares (PLS) regression methods trained on spectra from laboratory mosquitoes were evaluated on their ability to predict the age of mosquitoes from more natural environments.

Results

Models trained on spectra from laboratory-reared material were able to predict the age of other laboratory-reared mosquitoes with moderate accuracy and successfully differentiated all day 2 and 15 mosquitoes. Models derived with laboratory mosquitoes could not differentiate between field-derived age groups, with age predictions relatively indistinguishable for day 1–14. Pre-processing of spectral data and improving the PLS regression framework to avoid overfitting can increase accuracy, but predictions of mosquitoes reared in different environments remained poor. Principal components analysis confirms substantial spectral variations between laboratory and field-derived mosquitoes despite both originating from the same island population.

Conclusions

Models trained on laboratory mosquitoes were able to predict ages of laboratory mosquitoes with good sensitivity and specificity though they were unable to predict age of field-derived mosquitoes. This study suggests that laboratory-reared mosquitoes do not capture enough environmental variation to accurately predict the age of the same species reared under different conditions. Further research is needed to explore alternative pre-processing methods and machine learning techniques, and to understand factors that affect absorbance in mosquitoes before field application using NIRS.

The male mosquito contribution towards malaria transmission: Mating influences the Anopheles female midgut transcriptome and increases female susceptibility to human malaria parasites

Mating causes dramatic changes in female physiology, behaviour, and immunity in many insects, inducing oogenesis, oviposition, and refractoriness to further mating. Females from the Anopheles gambiae species complex typically mate only once in their lifetime during which they receive sperm and seminal fluid proteins as well as a mating plug that contains the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone. This hormone, which is also induced by blood-feeding, plays a major role in activating vitellogenesis for egg production. Here we show that female Anopheles coluzzii susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum infection is significantly higher in mated females compared to virgins. We also find that mating status has a major impact on the midgut transcriptome, detectable only under sugar-fed conditions: once females have blood-fed, the transcriptional changes that are induced by mating are likely masked by the widespread effects of blood-feeding on gene expression. To determine whether increased susceptibility to parasites could be driven by the additional 20E that mated females receive from males, we mimicked mating by injecting virgin females with 20E, finding that these females are significantly more susceptible to human malaria parasites than virgin females injected with the control 20E carrier. Further RNAseq was carried out to examine whether the genes that change upon 20E injection in the midgut are similar to those that change upon mating. We find that 79 midgut-expressed genes are regulated in common by both mating and 20E, and 96% (n = 76) of these are regulated in the same direction (up vs down in 20E/mated). Together, these findings show that male Anopheles mosquitoes induce changes in the female midgut that can affect female susceptibility to P. falciparum. This implies that in nature, males might contribute to malaria transmission in previously unappreciated ways, and that vector control strategies that target males may have additional benefits towards reducing transmission.

Malaria mosquitoes must successfully mate and bloodfeed in order to reproduce. The impact of bloodfeeding on malaria transmission is clear given that all transmission is caused by female mosquitoes that have fed at least twice: once leading to an initial infection, and again 10–14 days later resulting in parasite transmission. The impact of mating on malaria transmission is less clear. Here we show that mating status significantly enhances transmission, such that mated females are more likely to transmit malaria parasites than virgin females. We further examine whether a hormone transferred by mating might cause this enhanced susceptibility, and we find that indeed the receipt of this hormone is also correlated with enhanced susceptibility. The results of this study imply that efforts to target male mosquitoes might not only suppress mosquito populations, but also act to decrease vector competence among residual females.

Protein O-Fucosyltransferase 2 Is Not Essential for Plasmodium berghei Development

Thrombospondin type I repeat (TSR) domains are commonly O-fucosylated by protein O-fucosyltransferase 2 (PoFUT2), and this modification is required for optimal folding and secretion of TSR-containing proteins. The human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum expresses proteins containing TSR domains, such as the thrombospondin-related anonymous protein (TRAP) and circumsporozoite surface protein (CSP), which are O-fucosylated. TRAP and CSP are present on the surface of sporozoites and play essential roles in mosquito and human host invasion processes during the transmission stages. Here, we have generated PoFUT2 null-mutant P. falciparum and Plasmodium berghei (rodent) malaria parasites and, by phenotyping them throughout their complete life cycle, we show that PoFUT2 disruption does not affect the growth through the mosquito stages for both species. However, contrary to what has been described previously by others, P. berghei PoFUT2 null mutant sporozoites showed no deleterious motility phenotypes and successfully established blood stage infection in mice. This unexpected result indicates that the importance of O-fucosylation of TSR domains may differ between human and RODENT malaria parasites; complicating our understanding of glycosylation modifications in malaria biology.

Using ante-natal clinic prevalence data to monitor temporal changes in malaria incidence in a humanitarian setting in the Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

The number of clinical cases of malaria is often recorded in resource constrained or conflict settings as a proxy for disease burden. Interpreting case count data in areas of humanitarian need is challenging due to uncertainties in population size caused by security concerns, resource constraints and population movement. Malaria prevalence in women visiting ante-natal care (ANC) clinics has the potential to be an easier and more accurate metric for malaria surveillance that is unbiased by population size if malaria testing is routinely conducted irrespective of symptoms.

METHODS

A suite of distributed lag non-linear models was fitted to clinical incidence time-series data in children under 5 years and ANC prevalence data from health centres run by Médecins Sans Frontières in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which implement routine intermittent screening and treatment alongside intermittent preventative treatment in pregnancy. These statistical models enable the temporal relationship between the two metrics to be disentangled.

RESULTS

There was a strong relationship between the ANC prevalence and clinical incidence suggesting that both can be used to describe current malaria endemicity. There was no evidence that ANC prevalence could predict future clinical incidence, though a change in clinical incidence was shown to influence ANC prevalence up to 3 months into the future.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that ANC prevalence may be a suitable metric for retrospective evaluations of the impact of malaria interventions and is a useful method for evaluating long-term malaria trends in resource constrained settings.

Detection of Plasmodium berghei infected Anopheles stephensi using near-infrared spectroscopy

BACKGROUND

The proportion of mosquitoes infected with malaria is an important entomological metric used to assess the intensity of transmission and the impact of vector control interventions. Currently, the prevalence of mosquitoes with salivary gland sporozoites is estimated by dissecting mosquitoes under a microscope or using molecular methods. These techniques are laborious, subjective, and require either expensive equipment or training. This study evaluates the potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to identify laboratory reared mosquitoes infected with rodent malaria.

METHODS

Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes were reared in the laboratory and fed on Plasmodium berghei infected blood. After 12 and 21 days post-feeding mosquitoes were killed, scanned and analysed using NIRS and immediately dissected by microscopy to determine the number of oocysts on the midgut wall or sporozoites in the salivary glands. A predictive classification model was used to determine parasite prevalence and intensity status from spectra.

RESULTS

The predictive model correctly classifies infectious and uninfectious mosquitoes with an overall accuracy of 72%. The false negative and false positive rates were 30 and 26%, respectively. While NIRS was able to differentiate between uninfectious and highly infectious mosquitoes, differentiating between mid-range infectious groups was less accurate. Multiple scans of the same specimen, with repositioning the mosquito between scans, is shown to improve accuracy. On a smaller dataset NIRS was unable to predict whether mosquitoes harboured oocysts.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, we provide the first evidence that NIRS can differentiate between infectious and uninfectious mosquitoes. Currently, distinguishing between different intensities of infection is challenging. The classification model provides a flexible framework and allows for different error rates to be optimised, enabling the sensitivity and specificity of the technique to be varied according to requirements.

Synergy in anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic and transmission-blocking antibodies is achieved by reducing parasite density

Anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV) target transmission by inhibiting human infection but are currently partially protective. It has been posited, but never demonstrated, that co-administering transmission-blocking vaccines (TBV) would enhance malaria control. We hypothesized a mechanism that TBV could reduce parasite density in the mosquito salivary glands, thereby enhancing PEV efficacy. This was tested using a multigenerational population assay, passaging Plasmodium berghei to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. A combined efficacy of 90.8% (86.7-94.2%) was observed in the PEV +TBV antibody group, higher than the estimated efficacy of 83.3% (95% CrI 79.1-87.0%) if the two antibodies acted independently. Higher PEV efficacy at lower mosquito parasite loads was observed, comprising the first direct evidence that co-administering anti-sporozoite and anti-transmission interventions act synergistically, enhancing PEV efficacy across a range of TBV doses and transmission intensities. Combining partially effective vaccines of differing anti-parasitic classes is a pragmatic, powerful way to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

Predicting the likelihood and intensity of mosquito infection from sex specific Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density

Understanding the importance of gametocyte density on human-to-mosquito transmission is of immediate relevance to malaria control. Previous work (Churcher et al., 2013) indicated a complex relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection. Here we use data from 148 feeding experiments on naturally infected gametocyte carriers to show that the relationship is much simpler and depends on both female and male parasite density. The proportion of mosquitoes infected is primarily determined by the density of female gametocytes though transmission from low gametocyte densities may be impeded by a lack of male parasites. Improved precision of gametocyte quantification simplifies the shape of the relationship with infection increasing rapidly before plateauing at higher densities. The mean number of oocysts per mosquito rises quickly with gametocyte density but continues to increase across densities examined. The work highlights the importance of measuring both female and male gametocyte density when estimating the human reservoir of infection.

Monitoring the Age of Mosquito Populations Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Mosquito control with bednets, residual sprays or fumigation remains the most effective tool for preventing vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and Zika, though there are no widely used entomological methods for directly assessing its efficacy. Mosquito age is the most informative metric for evaluating interventions that kill adult mosquitoes but there is no simple or reliable way of measuring it in the field. Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) has been shown to be a promising, high-throughput method that can estimate the age of mosquitoes. Currently the ability of NIRS to measure mosquito age is biased, and has relatively high individual mosquito measurement error, though its capacity to rigorously monitor mosquito populations in the field has never been assessed. In this study, we use machine learning methods from the chemometric literature to generate more accurate, unbiased estimates of individual mosquito age. These unbiased estimates produce precise population-level measurements, which are relatively insensitive to further increases in NIRS accuracy when feasible numbers of mosquitoes are sampled. The utility of NIRS to directly measure the impact of pyrethroid resistance on mosquito control is illustrated, showing how the technology has potential as a highly valuable tool for directly assessing the efficacy of mosquito control interventions.

Immunization with Transgenic Rodent Malaria Parasites Expressing Pfs25 Induces Potent Transmission-Blocking Activity

An anti-malarial transmission blocking vaccine (TBV) would be an important tool for disease control or elimination, though current candidates have failed to induce high efficacy in clinical studies. The ookinete surface protein P25 is a primary target for TBV development, but heterologous expression of P25 with appropriate conformation is problematic and a pre-requisite for achieving functional titers. A potential alternative to recombinant/sub-unit vaccine is immunization with a non-pathogenic, whole-parasite vaccine. This study examines the ability of a purified transgenic rodent-malaria parasite (PbPfs25DR3), expressing Plasmodium falciparum P25 in native conformation on the P. berghei ookinete surface, to act as a TBV. Vaccination with purified PbPfs25DR3 ookinetes produces a potent anti-Pfs25 response and high transmission-blocking efficacy in the laboratory, findings that are then translated to experimentation on natural field isolates of P. falciparum from infected individuals in Burkina Faso. Efficacy is demonstrated in the lab and the field (up to 93.3%/97.1% reductions in transmission intensity respectively), with both a homologous strategy with one and two boosts, and as part of a prime-boost regime, providing support for the future development of a whole-parasite TBV.

Comparative assessment of An. gambiae and An. stephensi mosquitoes to determine transmission-reducing activity of antibodies against P. falciparum sexual stage antigens

Background

With the increasing interest in vaccines to interrupt malaria transmission, there is a demand for harmonization of current methods to assess Plasmodium transmission in laboratory settings. Potential vaccine candidates are currently tested in the standard membrane feeding assay (SMFA) that commonly relies on Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. Other mosquito species including Anopheles gambiae are the dominant malaria vectors for Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Using human serum and monoclonal pre-fertilization (anti-Pfs48/45) and post-fertilization (anti-Pfs25) antibodies known to effectively inhibit sporogony, we directly compared SMFA based estimates of transmission-reducing activity (TRA) for An. stephensi and An. gambiae mosquitoes.

Results

In the absence of transmission-reducing antibodies, average numbers of oocysts were similar between An. gambiae and An. stephensi. Antibody-mediated TRA was strongly correlated between both mosquito species, and absolute TRA estimates for pre-fertilisation monoclonal antibodies (mAb) showed no significant difference between the two species. TRA estimates for IgG of naturally exposed individuals and partially effective concentrations of anti-Pfs25 mAb were higher for An. stephensi than for An. gambiae.

Conclusion

Our findings support the use of An. stephensi in the SMFA for target prioritization. As a vaccine moves through product development, better estimates of TRA and transmission-blocking activity (TBA) may need to be obtained in epidemiologically relevant parasite-species combination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-017-2414-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of two lead malaria transmission blocking vaccine candidate antibodies in natural parasite-vector combinations

Transmission blocking vaccines (TBV) which aim to control malaria by inhibiting human-to-mosquito transmission show considerable promise though their utility against naturally circulating parasites remains unknown. The efficacy of two lead candidates targeting Pfs25 and Pfs230 antigens to prevent onwards transmission of naturally occurring parasites to a local mosquito strain is assessed using direct membrane feeding assays and murine antibodies in Burkina Faso. The transmission blocking activity of both candidates depends on the level of parasite exposure (as assessed by the mean number of oocysts in control mosquitoes) and antibody titers. A mathematical framework is devised to allow the efficacy of different candidates to be directly compared and determine the minimal antibody titers required to halt transmission in different settings. The increased efficacy with diminishing parasite exposure indicates that the efficacy of vaccines targeting either Pfs25 or Pfs230 may increase as malaria transmission declines. This has important implications for late-stage candidate selection and assessing how they can support the drive for malaria elimination.

A novel model fitted to multiple life stages of malaria for assessing efficacy of transmission-blocking interventions

Background

Transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) aim to eliminate malaria by reducing transmission of the parasite between the host and the invertebrate vector. TBIs include transmission-blocking drugs and vaccines that, when given to humans, are taken up by mosquitoes and inhibit parasitic development within the vector. Accurate methodologies are key to assess TBI efficacy to ensure that only the most potent candidates progress to expensive and time-consuming clinical trials. Measuring intervention efficacy can be problematic because there is substantial variation in the number of parasites in both the host and vector populations, which can impact transmission even in laboratory settings.

Methods

A statistically robust empirical method is introduced for estimating intervention efficacy from standardised population assay experiments. This method will be more reliable than simple summary statistics as it captures changes in parasite density in different life-stages. It also allows efficacy estimates at a finer resolution than previous methods enabling the impact of the intervention over successive generations to be tracked. A major advantage of the new methodology is that it makes no assumptions on the population dynamics of infection. This enables both host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission to be density-dependent (or other) processes and generates easy-to-understand estimates of intervention efficacy.

Results

This method increases the precision of intervention efficacy estimates and demonstrates that relying on changes in infection prevalence (the proportion of infected hosts) alone may be insufficient to capture the impact of TBIs, which also suppress parasite density in secondarily infected hosts.

Conclusions

The method indicates that potentially useful, partially effective TBIs may require multiple infection cycles before substantial reductions in prevalence are observed, despite more rapidly suppressing parasite density. Accurate models to quantify efficacy will have important implications for understanding how TBI candidates might perform in field situations and how they should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1782-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Probability of Transmission of Malaria from Mosquito to Human Is Regulated by Mosquito Parasite Density in Naïve and Vaccinated Hosts

Over a century since Ronald Ross discovered that malaria is caused by the bite of an infectious mosquito it is still unclear how the number of parasites injected influences disease transmission. Currently it is assumed that all mosquitoes with salivary gland sporozoites are equally infectious irrespective of the number of parasites they harbour, though this has never been rigorously tested. Here we analyse >1000 experimental infections of humans and mice and demonstrate a dose-dependency for probability of infection and the length of the host pre-patent period. Mosquitoes with a higher numbers of sporozoites in their salivary glands following blood-feeding are more likely to have caused infection (and have done so quicker) than mosquitoes with fewer parasites. A similar dose response for the probability of infection was seen for humans given a pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate targeting circumsporozoite protein (CSP), and in mice with and without transfusion of anti-CSP antibodies. These interventions prevented infection more efficiently from bites made by mosquitoes with fewer parasites. The importance of parasite number has widespread implications across malariology, ranging from our basic understanding of the parasite, how vaccines are evaluated and the way in which transmission should be measured in the field. It also provides direct evidence for why the only registered malaria vaccine RTS,S was partially effective in recent clinical trials.

Malaria is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infectious mosquito though it is unclear whether a mosquito with a high number of parasites is more infectious than one with only a few. Here we show that the greater the number of parasites within the salivary gland of the mosquito following blood-feeding the more likely it is to have transmitted the disease. A clear dose-response is seen with highly infected mosquitoes being more likely to have caused infection (and to have done so quicker) than lightly infected mosquitoes. This suggesting that mosquito-based methods for measuring transmission in the field need to be refined as they currently only consider whether a mosquito is infected or not (and not how heavily infected the mosquito is). Novel transmission reducing drugs and vaccines are tested by experimentally infecting people using infectious mosquitoes. This work indicates that it is important to further standardise infectious dose in malaria experimental infections to enable the efficacy of new interventions to be accurately compared. The work also provides direct evidence to suggest that the world’s first licenced malaria vaccine may be partially effective because it fails to provide protection against highly infected mosquitoes.

Associations between Season and Gametocyte Dynamics in Chronic Plasmodium falciparum Infections

Introduction

In a markedly seasonal malaria setting, the transition from the transmission-free dry season to the transmission season depends on the resurgence of the mosquito population following the start of annual rains. The sudden onset of malaria outbreaks at the start of the transmission season suggests that parasites persist during the dry season and respond to either the reappearance of vectors, or correlated events, by increasing the production of transmission stages. Here, we investigate whether Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density and the correlation between gametocyte density and parasite density show seasonal variation in chronic (largely asymptomatic) carriers in eastern Sudan.

Materials and Methods

We recruited and treated 123 malaria patients in the transmission season 2001. We then followed them monthly during four distinct consecutive epidemiological seasons: transmission season 1, transmission-free season, pre-clinical period, and transmission season 2. In samples collected from 25 participants who fulfilled the selection criteria of the current analysis, we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) and RT-qPCR to quantify parasite and gametocyte densities, respectively.

Results and Discussion

We observed a significant increase in gametocyte density and a significantly steeper positive correlation between gametocyte density and total parasite density during the pre-clinical period compared to the preceding transmission-free season. However, there was no corresponding increase in the density or prevalence of total parasites or gametocyte prevalence. The increase in gametocyte production during the pre-clinical period supports the hypothesis that P. falciparum may respond to environmental cues, such as mosquito biting, to modulate its transmission strategy. Thus, seasonal changes may be important to ignite transmission in unstable-malaria settings.

The impact of pyrethroid resistance on the efficacy and effectiveness of bednets for malaria control in Africa

Long lasting pyrethroid treated bednets are the most important tool for preventing malaria. Pyrethroid resistant Anopheline mosquitoes are now ubiquitous in Africa, though the public health impact remains unclear, impeding the deployment of more expensive nets. Meta-analyses of bioassay studies and experimental hut trials are used to characterise how pyrethroid resistance changes the efficacy of standard bednets, and those containing the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO), and assess its impact on malaria control. New bednets provide substantial personal protection until high levels of resistance, though protection may wane faster against more resistant mosquito populations as nets age. Transmission dynamics models indicate that even low levels of resistance would increase the incidence of malaria due to reduced mosquito mortality and lower overall community protection over the life-time of the net. Switching to PBO bednets could avert up to 0.5 clinical cases per person per year in some resistance scenarios.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16090.001

In recent years, widespread use of insecticide-treated bednets has prevented hundreds of thousands cases of malaria in Africa. Insecticide-treated bednets protect people in two ways: they provide a physical barrier that prevents the insects from biting and the insecticide kills mosquitos that come into contact with the net while trying to bite. Unfortunately, some mosquitoes in Africa are evolving so that they can survive contact with the insecticide currently used on bednets.

How this emerging insecticide resistance is changing the number of malaria infections in Africa is not yet clear and it is difficult for scientists to study. To help mitigate the effects of insecticide resistance, scientists are testing new strategies to boost the effects of bednets, such as adding a second chemical that makes the insecticide on bednets more deadly to mosquitoes. In some places, adding this second chemical makes the nets more effective, but in others it does not. Moreover, these doubly treated, or “combination”, nets are more expensive and so it can be hard for health officials to decide whether and where to use them.

Now, Churcher et al. have used computer modeling to help predict how insecticide resistance might change malaria infection rates and help determine when it makes sense to switch to the combination net. Insecticide-treated bednets provide good protection for individuals sleeping under them until relatively high levels of resistance are achieved, as measured using a simple test. As more resistant mosquitos survive encounters with the nets, the likelihood of being bitten before bed or while sleeping unprotected by a net increases. This is expected to increase malaria infections. As bednets age and are washed multiple times, they lose some of their insecticide and this problem becomes worse.

Churcher et al. also show that the combination bednets may provide some additional protection against resistant mosquitos and reduce the number of malaria infections in some cases. The experiments show a simple test could help health officials determine which type of net would be most beneficial. The experiments and the model Churcher et al. created also may help scientists studying how to prevent increased spread of malaria in communities where mosquitos are becoming resistant to insecticide-treated nets.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16090.002

Estimation of changes in the force of infection for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis in countries with schistosomiasis control initiative-assisted programmes

Background

The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI).

Methods

A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda.

Results

Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis.

Conclusions

Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made.

Vaccine approaches to malaria control and elimination: Insights from mathematical models

A licensed malaria vaccine would provide a valuable new tool for malaria control and elimination efforts. Several candidate vaccines targeting different stages of the malaria parasite's lifecycle are currently under development, with one candidate, RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection, having recently completed Phase III trials. Predicting the public health impact of a candidate malaria vaccine requires using clinical trial data to estimate the vaccine's efficacy profile--the initial efficacy following vaccination and the pattern of waning of efficacy over time. With an estimated vaccine efficacy profile, the effects of vaccination on malaria transmission can be simulated with the aid of mathematical models. Here, we provide an overview of methods for estimating the vaccine efficacy profiles of pre-erythrocytic vaccines and transmission-blocking vaccines from clinical trial data. In the case of RTS,S/AS01, model estimates from Phase II clinical trial data indicate a bi-phasic exponential profile of efficacy against infection, with efficacy waning rapidly in the first 6 months after vaccination followed by a slower rate of waning over the next 4 years. Transmission-blocking vaccines have yet to be tested in large-scale Phase II or Phase III clinical trials so we review ongoing work investigating how a clinical trial might be designed to ensure that vaccine efficacy can be estimated with sufficient statistical power. Finally, we demonstrate how parameters estimated from clinical trials can be used to predict the impact of vaccination campaigns on malaria using a mathematical model of malaria transmission.

Development of malaria transmission-blocking vaccines: from concept to product

Despite decades of effort battling against malaria, the disease is still a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) that target sexual stage parasite development could be an integral part of measures for malaria elimination. In the 1950s, Huff et al. first demonstrated the induction of transmission-blocking immunity in chickens by repeated immunizations with Plasmodium gallinaceum-infected red blood cells. Since then, significant progress has been made in identification of parasite antigens responsible for transmission-blocking activity. Recombinant technologies accelerated evaluation of these antigens as vaccine candidates, and it is possible to induce effective transmission-blocking immunity in humans both by natural infection and now by immunization with recombinant vaccines. This chapter reviews the efforts to produce TBVs, summarizes the current status and advances and discusses the remaining challenges and approaches.

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

Background

Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA.

Results

The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance.

Conclusions

Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-014-0402-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Therapeutic efficacy and macrofilaricidal activity of doxycycline for the treatment of river blindness

The efficacy of 4–6 weeks of oral doxycycline in depleting Wolbachia from Onchocerca volvulus is >95% in the majority of patients. Wolbachia depletion induces a 70%–80% reduction in worm life span, confirming doxycycline as a potent macrofilaricide.

Background. Onchocerca volvulus and lymphatic filariae, causing river blindness and elephantiasis, depend on endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria for growth, development, fertility, and survival. Clinical trials have shown that doxycycline treatment eliminates Wolbachia, causing long-term sterilization of adult female filariae and effecting potent macrofilaricidal activity. The continual reinfection by drug-naive worms that occurs in these trial settings dilutes observable anti-Wolbachia and antifilarial effects, making it difficult to estimate therapeutic efficacy and compare different doxycycline regimens, evaluated at different times after treatment.

Methods. A meta-analytical modeling framework is developed to link all usable data collected from clinical trials measuring the Wolbachia status and viability of individual female adult worms collected at various times after treatment with 4, 5, or 6 weeks of daily 100 or 200 mg oral doxycycline. The framework is used to estimate efficacy parameters that are not directly measurable as trial outcomes.

Results. The estimated efficacy of doxycycline (the maximum proportional reduction in the percentage of adult female O. volvulus positive for Wolbachia) is 91%–94% on average, irrespective of the treatment regimen. Efficacy is >95% in the majority of trial participants. The life span of Wolbachia-depleted worms is reduced by 70%–80%, from approximately 10 years to 2–3 years.

Conclusions. The efficacy parameters are pertinent to the prospects of using doxycycline on a “test and treat” basis for onchocerciasis control and confirm doxycycline as a potent macrofilaricidal therapy. The modeling approach is more generally relevant to the design and evaluation of clinical trials for antifilarial drugs conducted in endemic settings.

Experimental study of the relationship between Plasmodium gametocyte density and infection success in mosquitoes; implications for the evaluation of malaria transmission-reducing interventions

The evaluation of transmission reducing interventions (TRI) to control malaria widely uses membrane feeding assays. In such assays, the intensity of Plasmodium infection in the vector might affect the measured efficacy of the candidates to block transmission. Gametocyte density in the host blood is a determinant of the infection success in the mosquito, however, uncertain estimates of parasite densities and intrinsic characteristics of the infected blood can induce variability. To reduce this variation, a feasible method is to dilute infectious blood samples. We describe the effect of diluting samples of Plasmodium-containing blood samples to allow accurate relative measures of gametocyte densities and their impact on mosquito infectivity and TRI efficacy. Natural Plasmodium falciparum samples were diluted to generate a wide range of parasite densities, and fed to Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes. This was compared with parallel dilutions conducted on Plasmodium berghei infections. We examined how blood dilution influences the observed blocking activity of anti-Pbs28 monoclonal antibody using the P. berghei/Anopheles stephensi system. In the natural species combination P. falciparum/An. coluzzii, blood dilution using heat-inactivated, infected blood as diluents, revealed positive near linear relationships, between gametocyte densities and oocyst loads in the range tested. A similar relationship was observed in the P. berghei/An. stephensi system when using a similar dilution method. In contrast, diluting infected mice blood with fresh uninfected blood dramatically increases the infectiousness. This suggests that highly infected mice blood contains inhibitory factors or reduced blood moieties, which impede infection and may in turn, lead to misinterpretation when comparing individual TRI evaluation assays. In the lab system, the transmission blocking activity of an antibody specific for Pbs28 was confirmed to be density-dependent. This highlights the need to carefully interpret evaluations of TRI candidates, regarding gametocyte densities in the P. berghei/An. stephensi system.

Efficacy and safety of the mosquitocidal drug ivermectin to prevent malaria transmission after treatment: a double-blind, randomized, clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin combination therapy effectively clears asexual malaria parasites and immature gametocytes but does not prevent posttreatment malaria transmission. Ivermectin (IVM) may reduce malaria transmission by killing mosquitoes that take blood meals from IVM-treated humans.

METHODS

In this double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 120 asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum parasite carriers were randomized to receive artemether-lumefantrine (AL) plus placebo or AL plus a single or repeated dose (200 µg/kg) of ivermectin (AL-IVM1 and AL-IVM2, respectively). Mosquito membrane feeding was performed 1, 3, and 7 days after initiation of treatment to determine Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus survival and infection rates.

RESULTS

The AL-IVM combination was well tolerated. IVM resulted in a 4- to 7-fold increased mortality in mosquitoes feeding 1 day after IVM (P < .001). Day 7 IVM plasma levels were positively associated with body mass index (r = 0.57, P < .001) and were higher in female participants (P = .003), for whom An. gambiae mosquito mortality was increased until 7 days after a single dose of IVM (hazard rate ratio, 1.34 [95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.69]; P = .012). Although we found no evidence that IVM reduced Plasmodium infection rates among surviving mosquitoes, the mosquitocidal effect of AL-IVM1 and AL-IVM2 resulted in 27% and 35% reductions, respectively, in estimated malaria transmission potential during the first week after initiation of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that IVM can be safely given in combination with AL and can reduce the likelihood of malaria transmission by reducing the life span of feeding mosquitoes.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT0160325.