Evaluating plant lineage losses and gains in temperate forest understories: a phylogenetic perspective on climate change and nitrogen deposition

Global change has accelerated local species extinctions and colonizations, often resulting in losses and gains of evolutionary lineages with unique features. Do these losses and gains occur randomly across the phylogeny? We quantified: temporal changes in plant phylogenetic diversity (PD); and the phylogenetic relatedness (PR) of lost and gained species in 2672 semi-permanent vegetation plots in European temperate forest understories resurveyed over an average period of 40 yr. Controlling for differences in species richness, PD increased slightly over time and across plots. Moreover, lost species within plots exhibited a higher degree of PR than gained species. This implies that gained species originated from a more diverse set of evolutionary lineages than lost species. Certain lineages also lost and gained more species than expected by chance, with Ericaceae, Fabaceae, and Orchidaceae experiencing losses and Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae, and Rosaceae showing gains. Species losses and gains displayed no significant phylogenetic signal in response to changes in macroclimatic conditions and nitrogen deposition. As anthropogenic global change intensifies, temperate forest understories experience losses and gains in specific phylogenetic branches and ecological strategies, while the overall mean PD remains relatively stable.

Limited effects of population age on the genetic structure of spatially isolated forest herb populations in temperate Europe

Due to multiple land-cover changes, forest herb populations residing in forest patches embedded in agricultural landscapes display different ages and, thus, experience differences in genetic exchange, mutation accumulation and genetic drift. The extent of divergence in present-day population genetic structure among these populations of different ages remains unclear, considering their diverse breeding systems and associated pollinators. Answering this question is essential to understand these species' persistence, maintenance of evolutionary potential and adaptability to changing environments. We applied a multi-landscape setup to compare the genetic structure of forest herb populations across forest patches of different ages (18-338 years). We studied the impact on three common slow-colonizer herb species with distinct breeding systems and associated pollinators: Polygonatum multiflorum (outcrossing, long-distance pollinators), Anemone nemorosa (outcrossing, short-distance pollinators) and Oxalis acetosella (mixed breeding). We aimed to assess if in general older populations displayed higher genetic diversity and lower differentiation than younger ones. We also anticipated that P. multiflorum would show the smallest while O. acetosella the largest difference, between old and young populations. We found that older populations had a higher observed heterozygosity (H o) but a similar level of allelic richness (A r) and expected heterozygosity (H e) as younger populations, except for A. nemorosa, which exhibited higher A r and H e in younger populations. As populations aged, their pairwise genetic differentiation measured by D PS decreased independent of species identity while the other two genetic differentiation measures showed either comparable levels between old and young populations (G" ST) or inconsistency among three species (cGD). The age difference of the two populations did not explain their genetic differentiation. Synthesis: We found restricted evidence that forest herb populations with different ages differ in their genetic structure, indicating that populations of different ages can reach a similar genetic structure within decades and thus persist in the long term after habitat disturbance. Despite their distinct breeding systems and associated pollinators, the three studied species exhibited partly similar genetic patterns, suggesting that their common characteristics, such as being slow colonizers or their ability to propagate vegetatively, are important in determining their long-term response to land-cover change.

Combining multiple investigative approaches to unravel functional responses to global change in the understorey of temperate forests

Plant communities are being exposed to changing environmental conditions all around the globe, leading to alterations in plant diversity, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. For herbaceous understorey communities in temperate forests, responses to global change are postulated to be complex, due to the presence of a tree layer that modulates understorey responses to external pressures such as climate change and changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates. Multiple investigative approaches have been put forward as tools to detect, quantify and predict understorey responses to these global-change drivers, including, among others, distributed resurvey studies and manipulative experiments. These investigative approaches are generally designed and reported upon in isolation, while integration across investigative approaches is rarely considered. In this study, we integrate three investigative approaches (two complementary resurvey approaches and one experimental approach) to investigate how climate warming and changes in nitrogen deposition affect the functional composition of the understorey and how functional responses in the understorey are modulated by canopy disturbance, that is, changes in overstorey canopy openness over time. Our resurvey data reveal that most changes in understorey functional characteristics represent responses to changes in canopy openness with shifts in macroclimate temperature and aerial nitrogen deposition playing secondary roles. Contrary to expectations, we found little evidence that these drivers interact. In addition, experimental findings deviated from the observational findings, suggesting that the forces driving understorey change at the regional scale differ from those driving change at the forest floor (i.e., the experimental treatments). Our study demonstrates that different approaches need to be integrated to acquire a full picture of how understorey communities respond to global change.

Impact of patch age and size on forest soil characteristics in European agricultural landscapes

Many landscapes worldwide are characterized by the presence of a mosaic of forest patches with contrasting age and size embedded in a matrix of agricultural land. However, our understanding of the effects of these key forest patch features on the soil nutrient status (in terms of nitrogen, carbon, and phosphorus) and soil pH is still limited due to a lack of large-scale data. To address this research gap, we analyzed 830 soil samples from nearly 200 forest patches varying in age (recent versus ancient forests) and size (small versus larger patches) along a 2500-km latitudinal gradient across Europe. We also considered environmental covariates at multiple scales to increase the generality of our research, including variation in macroclimate, nitrogen deposition rates, forest cover in a buffer zone, basal area and soil type. Multiple linear mixed-effects models were performed to test the combined effects of patch features and environmental covariates on soil nutrients and pH. Recent patches had higher total soil phosphorus concentrations and stocks in the mineral soil layer, along with a lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratio within that layer. Small patches generally had a higher mineral soil pH. Mineral soil nitrogen stocks were lower in forest patches with older age and larger size, as a result of a significant interactive effect. Additionally, environmental covariates had significant effects on soil nutrients, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and their stoichiometry, depending on the specific covariates. In some cases, the effect of patch age on mineral soil phosphorus stocks was greater than that of environmental covariates. Our findings underpin the important roles of forest patch age and size for the forest soil nutrient status. Long-term studies assessing edge effects and soil development in post-agricultural forests are needed, especially in a context of changing land use and climate.

More losses than gains during one century of plant biodiversity change in Germany

Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a 'biodiversity conservation paradox': biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century^1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal^1,3-5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here we asked whether analysing changes in the cover of plant species could reveal previously unrecognized patterns of biodiversity change and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms. We compiled and analysed a dataset of 7,738 permanent and semi-permanent vegetation plots from Germany that were surveyed between 2 and 54 times from 1927 to 2020, in total comprising 1,794 species of vascular plants. We found that decrements in cover, averaged across all species and plots, occurred more often than increments; that the number of species that decreased in cover was higher than the number of species that increased; and that decrements were more equally distributed among losers than were gains among winners. Null model simulations confirmed that these trends do not emerge by chance, but are the consequence of species-specific negative effects of environmental changes. In the long run, these trends might result in substantial losses of species at both local and regional scales. Summarizing the changes by decade shows that the inequality in the mean change in species cover of losers and winners diverged as early as the 1960s. We conclude that changes in species cover in communities represent an important but understudied dimension of biodiversity change that should more routinely be considered in time-series analyses.

ReSurveyGermany: Vegetation-plot time-series over the past hundred years in Germany

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resurvey data from Germany covering almost 100 years. We show the distribution of the plot data in space, time and across habitat types of the European Nature Information System (EUNIS). In addition, we include metadata on geographic location, plot size and vegetation structure. The data allow temporal biodiversity change to be assessed at the community scale, reaching back further into the past than most comparable data yet available. They also enable tracking changes in the incidence and distribution of individual species across Germany. In summary, the data come at a level of detail that holds promise for broadening our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind plant diversity change over the last century.

Measurement(s)	vegetation-plot resurvey data of vascular plant species
Technology Type(s)	vegetation-plot records
Factor Type(s)	Cover of species in plots
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Vascular plant species
Sample Characteristic - Environment	Terrestrial habitats
Sample Characteristic - Location	Germany

Pollinator movement activity influences genetic diversity and differentiation of spatially isolated populations of clonal forest herbs

In agricultural landscapes, forest herbs live in small, spatially isolated forest patches. For their long-term survival, their populations depend on animals as genetic linkers that provide pollen- or seed-mediated gene flow among different forest patches. However, whether insect pollinators serve as genetic linkers among spatially isolated forest herb populations in agricultural landscapes remains to be shown. Here, we used population genetic methods to analyze: (A) the genetic diversity and genetic differentiation of populations of two common, slow-colonizing temperate forest herb species [Polygonatum multiflorum (L.) All. and Anemone nemorosa L.] in spatially isolated populations within three agricultural landscapes in Germany and Sweden and (B) the movement activity of their most relevant associated pollinator species, i.e., the bumblebee Bombus pascuorum (Scopoli, 1,763) and the hoverfly Melanostoma scalare (Fabricus, 1,794), respectively, which differ in their mobility. We tested whether the indicated pollinator movement activity affected the genetic diversity and genetic differentiation of the forest herb populations. Bumblebee movement indicators that solely indicated movement activity between the forest patches affected both genetic diversity and genetic differentiation of the associated forest herb P. multiflorum in a way that can be explained by pollen-mediated gene flow among the forest herb populations. In contrast, movement indicators reflecting the total movement activity at a forest patch (including within-forest patch movement activity) showed unexpected effects for both plant-pollinator pairs that might be explained by accelerated genetic drift due to enhanced sexual reproduction. Our integrated approach revealed that bumblebees serve as genetic linkers of associated forest herb populations, even if they are more than 2 km apart from each other. No such evidence was found for the forest associated hoverfly species which showed significant genetic differentiation among forest patches itself. Our approach also indicated that a higher within-forest patch movement activity of both pollinator species might enhance sexual recruitment and thus diminishes the temporal buffer that clonal growth provides against habitat fragmentation effects.

Directional turnover towards larger-ranged plants over time and across habitats

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation.

Context matters: the landscape matrix determines the population genetic structure of temperate forest herbs across Europe

CONTEXT

Plant populations in agricultural landscapes are mostly fragmented and their functional connectivity often depends on seed and pollen dispersal by animals. However, little is known about how the interactions of seed and pollen dispersers with the agricultural matrix translate into gene flow among plant populations.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify effects of the landscape structure on the genetic diversity within, and the genetic differentiation among, spatially isolated populations of three temperate forest herbs. We asked, whether different arable crops have different effects, and whether the orientation of linear landscape elements relative to the gene dispersal direction matters.

METHODS

We analysed the species' population genetic structures in seven agricultural landscapes across temperate Europe using microsatellite markers. These were modelled as a function of landscape composition and configuration, which we quantified in buffer zones around, and in rectangular landscape strips between, plant populations.

RESULTS

Landscape effects were diverse and often contrasting between species, reflecting their association with different pollen- or seed dispersal vectors. Differentiating crop types rather than lumping them together yielded higher proportions of explained variation. Some linear landscape elements had both a channelling and hampering effect on gene flow, depending on their orientation.

CONCLUSIONS

Landscape structure is a more important determinant of the species' population genetic structure than habitat loss and fragmentation per se. Landscape planning with the aim to enhance the functional connectivity among spatially isolated plant populations should consider that even species of the same ecological guild might show distinct responses to the landscape structure.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01376-7.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming"

Schall and Heinrichs question our interpretation that the climatic debt in understory plant communities is locally modulated by canopy buffering. However, our results clearly show that the discrepancy between microclimate warming rates and thermophilization rates is highest in forests where canopy cover was reduced, which suggests that the need for communities to respond to warming is highest in those forests.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming"

Bertrand et al question our interpretation about warming effects on the thermophilization in forest plant communities and propose an alternative way to analyze climatic debt. We show that microclimate warming is a better predictor than macroclimate warming for studying forest plant community responses to warming. Their additional analyses do not affect or change our interpretations and conclusions.

Plant species identity and soil characteristics determine rhizosphere soil bacteria community composition in European temperate forests

Soil bacteria and understorey plants interact and drive forest ecosystem functioning. Yet, knowledge about biotic and abiotic factors that affect the composition of the bacterial community in the rhizosphere of understorey plants is largely lacking. Here, we assessed the effects of plant species identity (Milium effusum vs. Stachys sylvatica), rhizospheric soil characteristics, large-scale environmental conditions (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen (N) deposition), and land-use history (ancient vs. recent forests) on bacterial community composition in rhizosphere soil in temperate forests along a 1700 km latitudinal gradient in Europe. The dominant bacterial phyla in the rhizosphere soil of both plant species were Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria. Bacterial community composition differed significantly between the two plant species. Within plant species, soil chemistry was the most important factor determining soil bacterial community composition. More precisely, soil acidity correlated with the presence of multiple phyla, e.g. Acidobacteria (negatively), Chlamydiae (negatively) and Nitrospirae (positively), in both plant species. Large-scale environmental conditions were only important in S. sylvatica and land-use history was not important in either of the plant species. The observed role of understorey plant species identity and rhizosphere soil characteristics in determining soil bacterial community composition extends our understanding of plant-soil bacteria interactions in forest ecosystem functioning.

Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming

Climate warming is causing a shift in biological communities in favor of warm-affinity species (i.e., thermophilization). Species responses often lag behind climate warming, but the reasons for such lags remain largely unknown. Here, we analyzed multidecadal understory microclimate dynamics in European forests and show that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate. Increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change. Reciprocal effects between plants and microclimates are key to understanding the response of forest biodiversity and functioning to climate and land-use changes.

Plant-soil feedbacks of forest understorey plants transplanted in nonlocal soils along a latitudinal gradient

Climate change is driving movements of many plants beyond, as well as within, their current distributional ranges. Even migrant plants moving within their current range may experience different plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) because of divergent nonlocal biotic soil conditions. Yet, our understanding to what extent soil biotic conditions can affect the performance of within-range migrant plants is still very limited. We assessed the emergence and growth of migrant forest herbs (Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica) using soils and seeds collected along a 1,700 km latitudinal gradient across Europe. Soil biota were manipulated through four soil treatments, i.e. unsterilized control soil (PSF_US ), sterilized soil (PSF_S ), sterilized soil inoculated with unsterilized home soil (PSF_S+HI ) and sterilized soil inoculated with unsterilized foreign soil (PSF_S+FI , expected to occur when both plants and soil biota track climate change). Compared to PSF_S , PSF_US had negative effects on the growth but not emergence of both species, while PSF_S+FI only affected S. sylvatica across all seed provenances. When considering seed origin, seedling emergence and growth responses to nonlocal soils depended on soil biotic conditions. Specifically, the home-away distance effect on seedling emergence differed between the four treatments, and significant responses to chemistry either disappeared (M. effusum) or changed (S. sylvatica) from PSF_US to PSF_S . Soil biota emerge as an important driver of the estimated plant migration success. Our results of the effects of soil microorganisms on plant establishment provide relevant information for predictions of the distribution and dynamics of plant species in a changing climate.

Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.

Habitat properties are key drivers of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) prevalence in Ixodes ricinus populations of deciduous forest fragments

BACKGROUND

The tick Ixodes ricinus has considerable impact on the health of humans and other terrestrial animals because it transmits several tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) such as B. burgdorferi (sensu lato), which causes Lyme borreliosis (LB). Small forest patches of agricultural landscapes provide many ecosystem services and also the disservice of LB risk. Biotic interactions and environmental filtering shape tick host communities distinctively between specific regions of Europe, which makes evaluating the dilution effect hypothesis and its influence across various scales challenging. Latitude, macroclimate, landscape and habitat properties drive both hosts and ticks and are comparable metrics across Europe. Therefore, we instead assess these environmental drivers as indicators and determine their respective roles for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi in I. ricinus.

METHODS

We sampled I. ricinus and measured environmental properties of macroclimate, landscape and habitat quality of forest patches in agricultural landscapes along a European macroclimatic gradient. We used linear mixed models to determine significant drivers and their relative importance for nymphal and adult B. burgdorferi prevalence. We suggest a new prevalence index, which is pool-size independent.

RESULTS

During summer months, our prevalence index varied between 0 and 0.4 per forest patch, indicating a low to moderate disservice. Habitat properties exerted a fourfold larger influence on B. burgdorferi prevalence than macroclimate and landscape properties combined. Increasingly available ecotone habitat of focal forest patches diluted and edge density at landscape scale amplified B. burgdorferi prevalence. Indicators of habitat attractiveness for tick hosts (food resources and shelter) were the most important predictors within habitat patches. More diverse and abundant macro- and microhabitat had a diluting effect, as it presumably diversifies the niches for tick-hosts and decreases the probability of contact between ticks and their hosts and hence the transmission likelihood.

CONCLUSIONS

Diluting effects of more diverse habitat patches would pose another reason to maintain or restore high biodiversity in forest patches of rural landscapes. We suggest classifying habitat patches by their regulating services as dilution and amplification habitat, which predominantly either decrease or increase B. burgdorferi prevalence at local and landscape scale and hence LB risk. Particular emphasis on promoting LB-diluting properties should be put on the management of those habitats that are frequently used by humans. In the light of these findings, climate change may be of little concern for LB risk at local scales, but this should be evaluated further.

Environmental drivers of Ixodes ricinus abundance in forest fragments of rural European landscapes

BACKGROUND

The castor bean tick (Ixodes ricinus) transmits infectious diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, which constitutes an important ecosystem disservice. Despite many local studies, a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers of tick abundance at the continental scale is still lacking. We analyze a large set of environmental factors as potential drivers of I. ricinus abundance. Our multi-scale study was carried out in deciduous forest fragments dispersed within two contrasting rural landscapes of eight regions, along a macroclimatic gradient stretching from southern France to central Sweden and Estonia. We surveyed the abundance of I. ricinus, plant community composition, forest structure and soil properties and compiled data on landscape structure, macroclimate and habitat properties. We used linear mixed models to analyze patterns and derived the relative importance of the significant drivers.

RESULTS

Many drivers had, on their own, either a moderate or small explanatory value for the abundance of I. ricinus, but combined they explained a substantial part of variation. This emphasizes the complex ecology of I. ricinus and the relevance of environmental factors for tick abundance. Macroclimate only explained a small fraction of variation, while properties of macro- and microhabitat, which buffer macroclimate, had a considerable impact on tick abundance. The amount of forest and the composition of the surrounding rural landscape were additionally important drivers of tick abundance. Functional (dispersules) and structural (density of tree and shrub layers) properties of the habitat patch played an important role. Various diversity metrics had only a small relative importance. Ontogenetic tick stages showed pronounced differences in their response. The abundance of nymphs and adults is explained by the preceding stage with a positive relationship, indicating a cumulative effect of drivers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the ecosystem disservices of tick-borne diseases, via the abundance of ticks, strongly depends on habitat properties and thus on how humans manage ecosystems from the scale of the microhabitat to the landscape. This study stresses the need to further evaluate the interaction between climate change and ecosystem management on I. ricinus abundance.

Combining community resurvey data to advance global change research

More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of, and interactions among, multiple drivers joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this paper we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver-orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid implementation of multi-region resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research.

Drivers of temporal changes in temperate forest plant diversity vary across spatial scales

Global biodiversity is affected by numerous environmental drivers. Yet, the extent to which global environmental changes contribute to changes in local diversity is poorly understood. We investigated biodiversity changes in a meta-analysis of 39 resurvey studies in European temperate forests (3988 vegetation records in total, 17-75 years between the two surveys) by assessing the importance of (i) coarse-resolution (i.e., among sites) vs. fine-resolution (i.e., within sites) environmental differences and (ii) changing environmental conditions between surveys. Our results clarify the mechanisms underlying the direction and magnitude of local-scale biodiversity changes. While not detecting any net local diversity loss, we observed considerable among-site variation, partly explained by temporal changes in light availability (a local driver) and density of large herbivores (a regional driver). Furthermore, strong evidence was found that presurvey levels of nitrogen deposition determined subsequent diversity changes. We conclude that models forecasting future biodiversity changes should consider coarse-resolution environmental changes, account for differences in baseline environmental conditions and for local changes in fine-resolution environmental conditions.

Interacting effects of warming and drought on regeneration and early growth of Acer pseudoplatanus and A. platanoides

Climate change is acting on several aspects of plant life cycles, including the sexual reproductive stage, which is considered amongst the most sensitive life-cycle phases. In temperate forests, it is expected that climate change will lead to a compositional change in community structure due to changes in the dominance of currently more abundant forest tree species. Increasing our understanding of the effects of climate change on currently secondary tree species recruitment is therefore important to better understand and forecast population and community dynamics in forests. Here, we analyse the interactive effects of rising temperatures and soil moisture reduction on germination, seedling survival and early growth of two important secondary European tree species, Acer pseudoplatanus and A. platanoides. Additionally, we analyse the effect of the temperature experienced by the mother tree during seed production by collecting seeds of both species along a 2200-km long latitudinal gradient. For most of the responses, A. platanoides showed higher sensitivity to the treatments applied, and especially to its joint manipulation, which for some variables resulted in additive effects while for others only partial compensation. In both species, germination and survival decreased with rising temperatures and/or soil moisture reduction while early growth decreased with declining soil moisture content. We conclude that although A. platanoides germination and survival were more affected after the applied treatments, its initial higher germination and larger seedlings might allow this species to be relatively more successful than A. pseudoplatanus in the face of climate change.