Genetic parentage reveals the (un)natural history of Central Valley hatchery steelhead

Populations composed of individuals descended from multiple distinct genetic lineages often feature significant differences in phenotypic frequencies. We considered hatchery production of steelhead, the migratory anadromous form of the salmonid species Oncorhynchus mykiss, and investigated how differences among genetic lineages and environmental variation impacted life history traits. We genotyped 23,670 steelhead returning to the four California Central Valley hatcheries over 9 years from 2011 to 2019, confidently assigning parentage to 13,576 individuals to determine age and date of spawning and rates of iteroparity and repeat spawning within each year. We found steelhead from different genetic lineages showed significant differences in adult life history traits despite inhabiting similar environments. Differences between coastal and Central Valley steelhead lineages contributed to significant differences in age at return, timing of spawning, and rates of iteroparity among programs. In addition, adaptive genomic variation associated with life history development in this species varied among hatchery programs and was associated with the age of steelhead spawners only in the coastal lineage population. Environmental variation likely contributed to variations in phenotypic patterns observed over time, as our study period spanned both a marine heatwave and a serious drought in California. Our results highlight evidence of a strong genetic component underlying known phenotypic differences in life history traits between two steelhead lineages.

Survival, growth, and functional traits of tropical wet forest tree seedlings across an experimental soil moisture gradient in Puerto Rico

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8-month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture-defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions-and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture-defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species-specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions.

Capacity and establishment rules govern the number of nonnative species in communities of ground-dwelling invertebrates

Nonnative species are a key agent of global change. However, nonnative invertebrates remain understudied at the community scales where they are most likely to drive local extirpations. We use the North American NEON pitfall trapping network to document the number of nonnative species from 51 invertebrate communities, testing four classes of drivers. We sequenced samples using the eDNA from the sample's storage ethanol. We used AICc informed regression to evaluate how native species richness, productivity, habitat, temperature, and human population density and vehicular traffic account for continent-wide variation in the number of nonnative species in a local community. The percentage of nonnatives varied 3-fold among habitat types and over 10-fold (0%-14%) overall. We found evidence for two types of constraints on nonnative diversity. Consistent with Capacity rules (i.e., how the number of niches and individuals reflect the number of species an ecosystem can support) nonnatives increased with existing native species richness and ecosystem productivity. Consistent with Establishment Rules (i.e., how the dispersal rate of nonnative propagules and the number of open sites limits nonnative species richness) nonnatives increased with automobile traffic-a measure of human-generated propagule pressure-and were twice as common in pastures than native grasslands. After accounting for drivers associated with a community's ability to support native species (native species richness and productivity), nonnatives are more common in communities that are regularly seasonally disturbed (pastures and, potentially deciduous forests) and those experiencing more vehicular traffic. These baseline values across the US North America will allow NEON's monitoring mission to document how anthropogenic change-from disturbance to propagule transport, from temperature to trends in local extinction-further shape biotic homogenization.

Plant species within Streptanthoid Complex associate with distinct microbial communities that shift to be more similar under drought

Prolonged water stress can shift rhizoplane microbial communities, yet whether plant phylogenetic relatedness or drought tolerance predicts microbial responses is poorly understood. To explore this question, eight members of the Streptanthus clade with varying affinity to serpentine soil were subjected to three watering regimes. Rhizoplane bacterial communities were characterized using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and we compared the impact of watering treatment, soil affinity, and plant species identity on bacterial alpha and diversity. We determined which taxa were enriched among drought treatments using DESeq2 and identified features of soil affinity using random forest analysis. We show that water stress has a greater impact on microbial community structure than soil affinity or plant identity, even within a genus. Drought reduced alpha diversity overall, but plant species did not strongly differentiate alpha diversity. Watering altered the relative abundance of bacterial genera within Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Planctomycetes, and Acidobacteria, which responded similarly in the rhizoplane of most plant species. In addition, bacterial communities were more similar when plants received less water. Pseudarthrobacter was identified as a feature of affinity to serpentine soil while Bradyrhizobium, Chitinophaga, Rhodanobacter, and Paenibacillus were features associated with affinity to nonserpentine soils among Streptanthus. The homogenizing effect of drought on microbial communities and the increasing prevalence of Gram-negative bacteria across all plant species suggest that effects of water stress on root-associated microbiome structure may be predictable among closely related plant species that inhabit very different soil environments. The functional implications of observed changes in microbiome composition remain to be studied.

Assessing the utility of SoilGrids250 for biogeographic inference of plant populations

Inclusion of edaphic conditions in biogeographical studies typically provides a better fit and deeper understanding of plant distributions. Increased reliance on soil data calls for easily accessible data layers providing continuous soil predictions worldwide. Although SoilGrids provides a potentially useful source of predicted soil data for biogeographic applications, its accuracy for estimating the soil characteristics experienced by individuals in small-scale populations is unclear. We used a biogeographic sampling approach to obtain soil samples from 212 sites across the midwestern and eastern United States, sampling only at sites where there was a population of one of the 22 species in Lobelia sect. Lobelia. We analyzed six physical and chemical characteristics in our samples and compared them with predicted values from SoilGrids. Across all sites and species, soil texture variables (clay, silt, sand) were better predicted by SoilGrids (R 2: .25-.46) than were soil chemistry variables (carbon and nitrogen, R 2 ≤ .01; pH, R 2: .19). While SoilGrids predictions rarely matched actual field values for any variable, we were able to recover qualitative patterns relating species means and population-level plant characteristics to soil texture and pH. Rank order of species mean values from SoilGrids and direct measures were much more consistent for soil texture (Spearman r S = .74-.84; all p < .0001) and pH (r S = .61, p = .002) than for carbon and nitrogen (p > .35). Within the species L. siphilitica, a significant association, known from field measurements, between soil texture and population sex ratios could be detected using SoilGrids data, but only with large numbers of sites. Our results suggest that modeled soil texture values can be used with caution in biogeographic applications, such as species distribution modeling, but that soil carbon and nitrogen contents are currently unreliable, at least in the region studied here.

Examining the associations between a generalist feeder and a highly toxic host

Understanding the often antagonistic plant-herbivore interactions and how host defenses can influence herbivore dietary breadth is an area of ongoing study in ecology and evolutionary biology. Typically, host plants/fungi that produce highly noxious chemical defenses are only fed on by specialists. We know very little about generalist species that can feed and develop on a noxious host. One such example of generalists feeding on toxic host occurs in the mushroom-feeding Drosophila found in the immigrans-tripunctata radiation. Although these species are classified as generalists, their acceptable hosts include deadly Amanita species. In this study, we used behavioral assays to assess associations between one mushroom-feeding species, Drosophila guttifera, and the deadly Amanita phalloides. We conducted feeding assays to confirm the presence of cyclopeptide toxin tolerance. We then completed host preference assays in female flies and larvae and did not find a preference for toxic mushrooms in either. Finally, we assessed the effect of competition on oviposition preference. We found that the presence of a competitor's eggs on the preferred host was associated with the flies increasing the number of eggs laid on the toxic mushrooms. Our results highlight how access to a low competition host resource may help to maintain associations between a generalist species and a highly toxic host.

Investigating the phylogenetic history of toxin tolerance in mushroom-feeding Drosophila

Understanding how and when key novel adaptations evolved is a central goal of evolutionary biology. Within the immigrans-tripunctata radiation of Drosophila, many mushroom-feeding species are tolerant of host toxins, such as cyclopeptides, that are lethal to nearly all other eukaryotes. In this study, we used phylogenetic and functional approaches to investigate the evolution of cyclopeptide tolerance in the immigrans-tripunctata radiation of Drosophila. First, we inferred the evolutionary relationships among 48 species in this radiation using 978 single copy orthologs. Our results resolved previous incongruities within species groups across the phylogeny. Second, we expanded on previous studies of toxin tolerance by assaying 16 of these species for tolerance to α-amanitin and found that six of them could develop on diet with toxin. Finally, we asked how α-amanitin tolerance might have evolved across the immigrans-tripunctata radiation, and inferred that toxin tolerance was ancestral in mushroom-feeding Drosophila and subsequently lost multiple times. Our findings expand our understanding of toxin tolerance across the immigrans-tripunctata radiation and emphasize the uniqueness of toxin tolerance in this adaptive radiation and the complexity of biochemical adaptations.

20th-Century hurricanes leave long-lasting legacies on tropical forest height and the abundance of a dominant wind-resistant palm

Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high-resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km2 of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape-scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind-resistant species, the palm Prestoea acuminata var. montana. Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic.

Rural selection drives the evolution of an urban-rural cline in coat color in gray squirrels

Phenotypic differences between urban and rural populations are well-documented, but the evolutionary processes driving trait variation along urbanization gradients are often unclear. We combined spatial data on abundance, trait variation, and measurements of fitness to understand cline structure and test for natural selection on heritable coat color morphs (melanic, gray) of eastern gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) along an urbanization gradient. Population surveys using remote cameras and visual counts at 76 sites along the urbanization gradient revealed a significant cline in melanism, decreasing from 48% in the city center to <5% in rural woodlands. Among 76 squirrels translocated to test for phenotypic selection, survival was lower for the melanic than gray morph in rural woodlands, whereas there was no difference in survival between color morphs in the city. These results suggest the urban-rural cline in melanism is explained by natural selection favoring the gray morph in rural woodlands combined with relaxed selection in the city. Our study illustrates how trait variation between urban and rural populations can emerge from selection primarily in rural populations rather than adaptation to novel features of the urban environment.

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming

The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rare Boechera perstellata (Braun's rockcress) and widespread B. laevigata to acclimate to change. We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals of B. perstellata and B. laevigata propagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Plasticity was limited in both rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest that B. perstellata may have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener, B. perstellata exhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected, B. perstellata also had lower levels of observed heterozygosity than B. laevigata at the species level, but population-level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity among B. laevigata populations. Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity of B. perstellata versus commonness of B. laevigata is limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations of B. perstellata and suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints.

Macroevolutionary constraints on global microbial diversity

Biologists have long sought to quantify the number of species on Earth. Often missing from these efforts is the contribution of microorganisms, the smallest but most abundant form of life on the planet. Despite recent large‐scale sampling efforts, estimates of global microbial diversity span many orders of magnitude. It is important to consider how speciation and extinction over the last 4 billion years constrain inventories of biodiversity. We parameterized macroevolutionary models based on birth–death processes that assume constant and universal speciation and extinction rates. The models reveal that richness beyond 1012 species is feasible and in agreement with empirical predictions. Additional simulations suggest that mass extinction events do not place hard limits on modern‐day microbial diversity. Together, our study provides independent support for a massive global‐scale microbiome while shedding light on the upper limits of life on Earth.

Heterocypris incongruens maintains an egg bank in stormwater habitats and influences the development of larval mosquito, Culex restuans

Dormant propagules can provide a rapid colonization source for temporary aquatic habitats and set the trajectory for community dynamics, yet the egg banks of stormwater management systems have received little attention. We asked which species hatched from the sediment of drainage ditches in Champaign County, IL, and found bdelloid rotifers and ostracods (Heterocypris incongruens) to be the most common taxa. These sites also are colonized by mosquitoes, and we established laboratory experiments to examine interspecific interactions between common co-occurring taxa. Culex restuans larvae were reared in the presence or absence of H. incongruens at two intra- and interspecific densities (20 or 40 total individuals) and their survivorship to adulthood, development time to adulthood, adult body size, and sex ratio were determined. Survival for Cx. restuans was significantly lower at high larval density than at low larval density in both treatments. Culex restuans larvae reared in the presence of H. incongruens had a shorter development time to adulthood and emerged as larger adults compared to those reared in the absence of H. incongruens. The sex ratios in the H. incongruens treatments were female-biased whereas those in the Culex-only treatments were male-biased. These differences may have epidemiological implications, as only female mosquitoes serve as disease vectors. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding interspecific interactions in influencing larval mosquito development traits.

Integrating defense and leaf economic spectrum traits in a tropical savanna plant

Introduction

Allocation to plant defense traits likely depends on resource supply, herbivory, and other plant functional traits such as the leaf economic spectrum (LES) traits. Yet, attempts to integrate defense and resource acquisitive traits remain elusive.

Methods

We assessed intraspecific covariation between different defense and LES traits in a widely distributed tropical savanna herb, Solanum incanum, a unique model species for studying allocations to physical, chemical, and structural defenses to mammalian herbivory.

Results

We found that in a multivariate trait space, the structural defenses - lignin and cellulose - were positively related to the resource conservative traits - low SLA and low leaf N. Phenolic content, a chemical defense, was positively associated with resource acquisitive traits - high SLA and high leaf N - while also being associated with an independent third component axis. Both principal components 1 and 3 were not associated with resource supply and herbivory intensity. In contrast, spine density - a physical defense - was orthogonal to the LES axis and positively associated with soil P and herbivory intensity.

Discussion

These results suggest a hypothesized "pyramid" of trade-offs in allocation to defense along the LES and herbivory intensity axes. Therefore, future attempts to integrate defense traits with the broader plant functional trait framework, such as the LES, needs a multifaceted approach that accounts for unique influences of resource acquisitive traits and herbivory risk.

Turtle body size evolution is determined by lineage-specific specializations rather than global trends

Organisms display a considerable variety of body sizes and shapes, and macroevolutionary investigations help to understand the evolutionary dynamics behind such variations. Turtles (Testudinata) show great body size disparity, especially when their rich fossil record is accounted for. We explored body size evolution in turtles, testing which factors might influence the observed patterns and evaluating the existence of long-term directional trends. We constructed the most comprehensive body size dataset for the group to date, tested for correlation with paleotemperature, estimated ancestral body sizes, and performed macroevolutionary model-fitting analyses. We found no evidence for directional body size evolution, even when using very flexible models, thereby rejecting the occurrence of Cope's rule. We also found no significant effect of paleotemperature on overall through-time body size patterns. In contrast, we found a significant influence of habitat preference on turtle body size. Freshwater turtles display a rather homogeneous body size distribution through time. In contrast, terrestrial and marine turtles show more pronounced variation, with terrestrial forms being restricted to larger body sizes, up to the origin of testudinids in the Cenozoic, and marine turtles undergoing a reduction in body size disparity after the extinctions of many groups in the mid-Cenozoic. Our results, therefore, suggest that long-term, generalized patterns are probably explained by factors specific to certain groups and related at least partly to habitat use.

Dietary overlap and selectivity among mountain steppe river fish in the United States and Mongolia

Lotic systems in mountain regions have historically provided secure habitat for native fish populations because of their relative isolation from human settlement and lack of upstream disturbances. However, rivers of mountain ecoregions are currently experiencing heightened levels of disturbance due to the introduction of nonnative species impacting endemic fishes in these areas. We compared the fish assemblages and diets of mountain steppe fishes of the stocked rivers in Wyoming with rivers in northern Mongolia where stocking is absent. Using gut content analysis, we quantified the selectivity and diets of fishes collected in these systems. Nonnative species had more generalist diets with lower levels of selectivity than most native species and native species had high levels of dietary specificity and selectivity. High abundances of nonnative species and high levels of dietary overlaps in our Wyoming sites is a cause of concern for native Cutthroat Trout and overall system stability. In contrast, fish assemblages characterizing Mongolia mountain steppe rivers were composed of only native species with diverse diets and higher selectivity values, suggesting low probability for interspecific competition.

Predicting ecosystem metaphenome from community metagenome: A grand challenge for environmental biology

Elucidating how an organism's characteristics emerge from its DNA sequence has been one of the great triumphs of biology. This triumph has cumulated in sophisticated computational models that successfully predict how an organism's detailed phenotype emerges from its specific genotype. Inspired by that effort's vision and empowered by its methodologies, a grand challenge is described here that aims to predict the biotic characteristics of an ecosystem, its metaphenome, from nucleic acid sequences of all the species in its community, its metagenome. Meeting this challenge would integrate rapidly advancing abilities of environmental nucleic acids (eDNA and eRNA) to identify organisms, their ecological interactions, and their evolutionary relationships with advances in mechanistic models of complex ecosystems. Addressing the challenge would help integrate ecology and evolutionary biology into a more unified and successfully predictive science that can better help describe and manage ecosystems and the services they provide to humanity.

Topiary: Pruning the manual labor from ancestral sequence reconstruction

Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is a powerful tool to study the evolution of proteins and thus gain deep insight into the relationships among protein sequence, structure, and function. A major barrier to its broad use is the complexity of the task: it requires multiple software packages, complex file manipulations, and expert phylogenetic knowledge. Here we introduce topiary, a software pipeline that aims to overcome this barrier. To use topiary, users prepare a spreadsheet with a handful of sequences. Topiary then: (1) Infers the taxonomic scope for the ASR study and finds relevant sequences by BLAST; (2) Does taxonomically informed sequence quality control and redundancy reduction; (3) Constructs a multiple sequence alignment; (4) Generates a maximum-likelihood gene tree; (5) Reconciles the gene tree to the species tree; (6) Reconstructs ancestral amino acid sequences; and (7) Determines branch supports. The pipeline returns annotated evolutionary trees, spreadsheets with sequences, and graphical summaries of ancestor quality. This is achieved by integrating modern phylogenetics software (Muscle5, RAxML-NG, GeneRax, and PastML) with online databases (NCBI and the Open Tree of Life). In this paper, we introduce non-expert readers to the steps required for ASR, describe the specific design choices made in topiary, provide a detailed protocol for users, and then validate the pipeline using datasets from a broad collection of protein families. Topiary is freely available for download: https://github.com/harmslab/topiary.

Characterizing natural variability of lignin abundance and composition in fine roots across temperate trees: a comparison of analytical methods

Lignin is an important root chemical component that is widely used in biogeochemical models to predict root decomposition. Across ecological studies, lignin abundance has been characterized using both proximate and lignin-specific methods, without much understanding of their comparability. This uncertainty in estimating lignin limits our ability to comprehend the mechanisms regulating root decomposition and to integrate lignin data for large-scale syntheses. We compared five methods of estimating lignin abundance and composition in fine roots across 34 phylogenetically diverse tree species. We also assessed the feasibility of high-throughput techniques for fast-screening of root lignin. Although acid-insoluble fraction (AIF) has been used to infer root lignin and decomposition, AIF-defined lignin content was disconnected from the lignin abundance estimated by techniques that specifically measure lignin-derived monomers. While lignin-specific techniques indicated lignin contents of 2-10% (w/w) in roots, AIF-defined lignin contents were c. 5-10-fold higher, and their interspecific variation was found to be largely unrelated to that determined using lignin-specific techniques. High-throughput pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, when combined with quantitative modeling, accurately predicted lignin abundance and composition, highlighting its feasibility for quicker assessment of lignin in roots. We demonstrate that AIF should be interpreted separately from lignin in fine roots as its abundance is unrelated to that of lignin polymers. This study provides the basis for informed decision-making with respect to lignin methodology in ecology.

Evolutionary convergence on hummingbird pollination in Neotropical Costus provides insight into the causes of pollinator shifts

The evolution of hummingbird pollination is common across angiosperms throughout the Americas, presenting an opportunity to examine convergence in both traits and environments to better understand how complex phenotypes arise. Here we examine independent shifts from bee to hummingbird pollination in the Neotropical spiral gingers (Costus) and address common explanations for the prevalence of transitions from bee to hummingbird pollination. We use floral traits of species with observed pollinators to predict pollinators of unobserved species and reconstruct ancestral pollination states on a well-resolved phylogeny. We examine whether independent transitions evolve towards the same phenotypic optimum and whether shifts to hummingbird pollination correlate with elevation or climate. Traits predicting hummingbird pollination include small flower size, brightly colored floral bracts and the absence of nectar guides. We find many shifts to hummingbird pollination and no reversals, a single shared phenotypic optimum across hummingbird flowers, and no association between pollination and elevation or climate. Evolutionary shifts to hummingbird pollination in Costus are highly convergent and directional, involve a surprising set of traits when compared with other plants with analogous transitions and refute the generality of several common explanations for the prevalence of transitions from bee to hummingbird pollination.

Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.

An aggressive nonconsumptive effect mediates pest control and multipredator interactions in a coffee agroecosystem

Natural pest control is an alternative to pesticide use in agriculture, and may help to curb insect declines and promote crop production. Nonconsumptive interactions in natural pest control that historically have received far less attention than consumptive interactions, may have distinct impacts on pest damage suppression and may also mediate positive multipredator interactions. Additionally, when nonconsumptive effects are driven by natural enemy aggression, variation in alternative resources for enemies may impact the strength of pest control. Here we study control of the coffee berry borer (CBB), Hypothenemus hampei, by a keystone arboreal ant species, Azteca sericeasur, which exhibits a nonconsumptive effect on CBB by throwing them off coffee plants. We conducted two experiments to investigate: (1) if the strength of this behavior is driven by spatial or temporal variability in scale insect density (an alternative resource that Azteca tends for honeydew), (2) if this behavior mediates positive interactions between Azteca and other ground-foraging ants, and (3) the effect this behavior has on the overall suppression of CBB damage in multipredator scenarios. Our behavioral experiment showed that nearly all interactions between Azteca and CBB are nonconsumptive and that this behavior occurs more frequently in the dry season and with higher densities of scale insects on coffee branches. Our multipredator experiment revealed that borers thrown off coffee plants by Azteca can survive and potentially damage other nearby plants but may be suppressed by ground-foraging ants. Although we found no non-additive effects between Azteca and ground-foraging ants on overall CBB damage, together, both species resulted in the lowest level of plant damage with the subsequent reduction in "spillover" damage caused by thrown CBB, indicating spatial complementarity between predators. These results present a unique case of natural pest control, in which damage suppression is driven almost exclusively by nonconsumptive natural enemy aggression, as opposed to consumption or prey behavioral changes. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the variability that may occur in nonconsumptive pest control interactions when natural enemy aggressive behavior is impacted by alternative resources, and also show how these nonconsumptive effects can mediate positive interactions between natural enemies to enhance overall crop damage reduction.

Trading water for carbon in the future: Effects of elevated CO2 and warming on leaf hydraulic traits in a semiarid grassland

The effects of climate change on plants and ecosystems are mediated by plant hydraulic traits, including interspecific and intraspecific variability of trait phenotypes. Yet, integrative and realistic studies of hydraulic traits and climate change are rare. In a semiarid grassland, we assessed the response of several plant hydraulic traits to elevated CO₂ (+200 ppm) and warming (+1.5 to 3°C; day to night). For leaves of five dominant species (three graminoids and two forbs), and in replicated plots exposed to 7 years of elevated CO₂ , warming, or ambient climate, we measured: stomatal density and size, xylem vessel size, turgor loss point, and water potential (pre-dawn). Interspecific differences in hydraulic traits were larger than intraspecific shifts induced by elevated CO₂ and/or warming. Effects of elevated CO₂ were greater than effects of warming, and interactions between treatments were weak or not detected. The forbs showed little phenotypic plasticity. The graminoids had leaf water potentials and turgor loss points that were 10% to 50% less negative under elevated CO₂ ; thus, climate change might cause these species to adjust their drought resistance strategy away from tolerance and toward avoidance. The C4 grass also reduced allocation of leaf area to stomata under elevated CO₂ , which helps explain observations of higher soil moisture. The shifts in hydraulic traits under elevated CO₂ were not, however, simply due to higher soil moisture. Integration of our results with others' indicates that common species in this grassland are more likely to adjust stomatal aperture in response to near-term climate change, rather than anatomical traits; this contrasts with apparent effects of changing CO₂ on plant anatomy over evolutionary time. Future studies should assess how plant responses to drought may be constrained by the apparent shift from tolerance (via low turgor loss point) to avoidance (via stomatal regulation and/or access to deeper soil moisture).

Can disease resistance evolve independently at different ages? Genetic variation in age-dependent resistance to disease in three wild plant species

Juveniles are typically less resistant (more susceptible) to infectious disease than adults, and this difference in susceptibility can help fuel the spread of pathogens in age-structured populations. However, evolutionary explanations for this variation in resistance across age remain to be tested.One hypothesis is that natural selection has optimized resistance to peak at ages where disease exposure is greatest. A central assumption of this hypothesis is that hosts have the capacity to evolve resistance independently at different ages. This would mean that host populations have (a) standing genetic variation in resistance at both juvenile and adult stages, and (b) that this variation is not strongly correlated between age classes so that selection acting at one age does not produce a correlated response at the other age.Here we evaluated the capacity of three wild plant species (Silene latifolia, S. vulgaris and Dianthus pavonius) to evolve resistance to their anther-smut pathogens (Microbotryum fungi), independently at different ages. The pathogen is pollinator transmitted, and thus exposure risk is considered to be highest at the adult flowering stage.Within each species we grew families to different ages, inoculated individuals with anther smut, and evaluated the effects of age, family and their interaction on infection.In two of the plant species, S. latifolia and D. pavonius, resistance to smut at the juvenile stage was not correlated with resistance to smut at the adult stage. In all three species, we show there are significant age × family interaction effects, indicating that age specificity of resistance varies among the plant families. Synthesis. These results indicate that different mechanisms likely underlie resistance at juvenile and adult stages and support the hypothesis that resistance can evolve independently in response to differing selection pressures as hosts age. Taken together our results provide new insight into the structure of genetic variation in age-dependent resistance in three well-studied wild host-pathogen systems.

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

Different factors limit early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch development

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)-monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single-year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early-season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early-spring migrant female monarchs select earlier-emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade-off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late-season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late-season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom-up, top-down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed-monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.

Predicting how pollinator behavior causes reproductive isolation

Pollinator behavior is an important contributor to plants speciation, yet how variation in pollinator behavior causes variation in reproductive isolation (RI) is largely uncharacterized. Here I present a model that predicts how two aspects of pollinator behavior, constancy and preference, contribute to a barrier to reproduction in plants. This model is motivated by two observations: most co‐occurring plants vary in frequency over space and time, and most plants have multiple pollinators that differ in behavior. Thus, my goal was to understand how relative frequencies of plants and pollinators in a community influence ethological RI between co‐occurring plants. I find that RI for a focal plant generally increases with increasing relative plant frequency, but the shape of this relationship is highly dependent on the strength of pollinator behavior (constancy and preference). Additionally, when multiple pollinators express different behavior, I find that pollinators with stronger preference disproportionately influence RI. But, I show that RI caused by constancy is the average RI predicted from constancy of each pollinator weighted by pollinator frequency. I apply this model to examples of pollinator‐mediated RI in Phlox and in Ipomopsis to predict the relationships between plant frequency and ethological RI in natural systems. This model provides new insights into how and why pollinator specialization causes RI, and how RI could change with changing biological communities.

Assessing drivers of localized invasive spread to inform large-scale management of a highly damaging insect pest

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high-profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed-effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region-specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment.

Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near-term (≤10-yr forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near-term ecological forecasting literature and to compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicated that near-term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, some best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1-7 d forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables.

Evolutionary analyses of visual opsin genes in frogs and toads: Diversity, duplication, and positive selection

Among major vertebrate groups, anurans (frogs and toads) are understudied with regard to their visual systems, and little is known about variation among species that differ in ecology. We sampled North American anurans representing diverse evolutionary and life histories that likely possess visual systems adapted to meet different ecological needs. Using standard molecular techniques, visual opsin genes, which encode the protein component of visual pigments, were obtained from anuran retinas. Additionally, we extracted the visual opsins from publicly available genome and transcriptome assemblies, further increasing the phylogenetic and ecological diversity of our dataset to 33 species in total. We found that anurans consistently express four visual opsin genes (RH1, LWS, SWS1, and SWS2, but not RH2) even though reported photoreceptor complements vary widely among species. The proteins encoded by these genes showed considerable sequence variation among species, including at sites known to shift the spectral sensitivity of visual pigments in other vertebrates and had conserved substitutions that may be related to dim-light adaptation. Using molecular evolutionary analyses of selection (dN/dS) we found significant evidence for positive selection at a subset of sites in the dim-light rod opsin gene RH1 and the long wavelength sensitive cone opsin LWS. The function of sites inferred to be under positive selection are largely unknown, but a few are likely to affect spectral sensitivity and other visual pigment functions based on proximity to previously identified sites in other vertebrates. We also found the first evidence of visual opsin duplication in an amphibian with the duplication of the LWS gene in the African bullfrog, which had distinct LWS copies on the sex chromosomes suggesting the possibility of sex-specific visual adaptation. Taken together, our results indicate that ecological factors, such as habitat and life history, as well as behavior, may be driving changes to anuran visual systems.

Interactions with soil fungi alter density dependence and neighborhood effects in a locally abundant dipterocarp species

Seedling recruitment can be strongly affected by the composition of nearby plant species. At the neighborhood scale (on the order of tens of meters), adult conspecifics can modify soil chemistry and the presence of host microbes (pathogens and mutualists) across their combined canopy area or rooting zones. At local or small spatial scales (on the order of one to few meters), conspecific seed or seedling density can influence the strength of intraspecific light and resource competition and also modify the density-dependent spread of natural enemies such as pathogens or invertebrate predators. Intrinsic correlation between proximity to adult conspecifics (i.e., recruitment neighborhood) and local seedling density, arising from dispersal, makes it difficult to separate the independent and interactive factors that contribute to recruitment success. Here, we present a field experiment in which we manipulated both the recruitment neighborhood and seedling density to explore how they interact to influence the growth and survival of Dryobalanops aromatica, a dominant ectomycorrhizal tree species in a Bornean tropical rainforest. First, we found that both local seedling density and recruitment neighborhood had effects on performance of D. aromatica seedlings, though the nature of these impacts varied between growth and survival. Second, we did not find strong evidence that the effect of density on seedling survival is dependent on the presence of conspecific adult trees. However, accumulation of mutualistic fungi beneath conspecifics adults does facilitate establishment of D. aromatica seedlings. In total, our results suggest that recruitment near adult conspecifics was not associated with a performance cost and may have weakly benefitted recruiting seedlings. Positive effects of conspecifics may be a factor facilitating the regional hyperabundance of this species. Synthesis: Our results provide support for the idea that dominant species in diverse forests may escape the localized recruitment suppression that limits abundance in rarer species.

Shifting stoichiometry: Long-term trends in stream-dissolved organic matter reveal altered C:N ratios due to history of atmospheric acid deposition

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) are important energy and nutrient sources for aquatic ecosystems. In many northern temperate, freshwater systems DOC has increased in the past 50 years. Less is known about how changes in DOC may vary across latitudes, and whether changes in DON track those of DOC. Here, we present long-term DOC and DON data from 74 streams distributed across seven sites in biomes ranging from the tropics to northern boreal forests with varying histories of atmospheric acid deposition. For each stream, we examined the temporal trends of DOC and DON concentrations and DOC:DON molar ratios. While some sites displayed consistent positive or negative trends in stream DOC and DON concentrations, changes in direction or magnitude were inconsistent at regional or local scales. DON trends did not always track those of DOC, though DOC:DON ratios increased over time for ~30% of streams. Our results indicate that the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool is experiencing fundamental changes due to the recovery from atmospheric acid deposition. Changes in DOC:DON stoichiometry point to a shifting energy-nutrient balance in many aquatic ecosystems. Sustained changes in the character of DOM can have major implications for stream metabolism, biogeochemical processes, food webs, and drinking water quality (including disinfection by-products). Understanding regional and global variation in DOC and DON concentrations is important for developing realistic models and watershed management protocols to effectively target mitigation efforts aimed at bringing DOM flux and nutrient enrichment under control.

Mito-nuclear discordance at a mimicry color transition zone in bumble bee Bombus melanopygus

As hybrid zones exhibit selective patterns of gene flow between otherwise distinct lineages, they can be especially valuable for informing processes of microevolution and speciation. The bumble bee, Bombus melanopygus, displays two distinct color forms generated by Müllerian mimicry: a northern "Rocky Mountain'' color form with ferruginous mid-abdominal segments (B. m. melanopygus) and a southern "Pacific'' form with black mid-abdominal segments (B. m. edwardsii). These morphs meet in a mimetic transition zone in northern California and southern Oregon that is more narrow and transitions further west than comimetic bumble bee species. To understand the historical formation of this mimicry zone, we assessed color distribution data for B. melanopygus from the last 100 years. We then examined gene flow among the color forms in the transition zone by comparing sequences from mitochondrial COI barcode sequences, color-controlling loci, and the rest of the nuclear genome. These data support two geographically distinct mitochondrial haplogroups aligned to the ancestrally ferruginous and black forms that meet within the color transition zone. This clustering is also supported by the nuclear genome, which, while showing strong admixture across individuals, distinguishes individuals most by their mitochondrial haplotype, followed by geography. These data suggest the two lineages most likely were historically isolated, acquired fixed color differences, and then came into secondary contact with ongoing gene flow. The transition zone, however, exhibits asymmetries: mitochondrial haplotypes transition further south than color pattern, and both transition over shorter distances in the south. This system thus demonstrates alternative patterns of gene flow that occur in contact zones, presenting another example of mito-nuclear discordance. Discordant gene flow is inferred to most likely be driven by a combination of mimetic selection, dominance effects, and assortative mating.

Ethanol resistance in Drosophila melanogaster has increased in parallel cold-adapted populations and shows a variable genetic architecture within and between populations

Understanding the genetic properties of adaptive trait evolution is a fundamental crux of biological inquiry that links molecular processes to biological diversity. Important uncertainties persist regarding the genetic predictability of adaptive trait change, the role of standing variation, and whether adaptation tends to result in the fixation of favored variants. Here, we use the recurrent evolution of enhanced ethanol resistance in Drosophila melanogaster during this species' worldwide expansion as a promising system to add to our understanding of the genetics of adaptation. We find that elevated ethanol resistance has evolved at least three times in different cooler regions of the species' modern range-not only at high latitude but also in two African high-altitude regions. Applying a bulk segregant mapping framework, we find that the genetic architecture of ethanol resistance evolution differs substantially not only between our three resistant populations, but also between two crosses involving the same European population. We then apply population genetic scans for local adaptation within our quantitative trait locus regions, and we find potential contributions of genes with annotated roles in spindle localization, membrane composition, sterol and alcohol metabolism, and other processes. We also apply simulation-based analyses that confirm the variable genetic basis of ethanol resistance and hint at a moderately polygenic architecture. However, these simulations indicate that larger-scale studies will be needed to more clearly quantify the genetic architecture of adaptive evolution and to firmly connect trait evolution to specific causative loci.

Novel Chlamydiae and Amoebophilus endosymbionts are prevalent in wild isolates of the model social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum

Amoebae interact with bacteria in multifaceted ways. Amoeba predation can serve as a selective pressure for the development of bacterial virulence traits. Bacteria may also adapt to life inside amoebae, resulting in symbiotic relationships. Indeed, particular lineages of obligate bacterial endosymbionts have been found in different amoebae. Here, we screened an extensive collection of Dictyostelium discoideum wild isolates for the presence of these bacterial symbionts using endosymbiont specific PCR primers. We find that these symbionts are surprisingly common, identified in 42% of screened isolates (N = 730). Members of the Chlamydiae phylum are particularly prevalent, occurring in 27% of the amoeba isolated. They are novel and phylogenetically distinct from other Chlamydiae. We also found Amoebophilus symbionts in 8% of screened isolates (N = 730). Antibiotic-cured amoebae behave similarly to their Chlamydiae or Amoebophilus-infected counterparts, suggesting that these endosymbionts do not significantly impact host fitness, at least in the laboratory. We found several natural isolates were co-infected with multiple endosymbionts, with no obvious fitness effect of co-infection under laboratory conditions. The high prevalence and novelty of amoeba endosymbiont clades in the model organism D. discoideum opens the door to future research on the significance and mechanisms of amoeba-symbiont interactions.

Melanic pigmentation and light preference within and between two Drosophila species

Environmental adaptation and species divergence often involve suites of co-evolving traits. Pigmentation in insects presents a variable, adaptive, and well-characterized class of phenotypes for which correlations with multiple other traits have been demonstrated. In Drosophila, the pigmentation genes ebony and tan have pleiotropic effects on flies' response to light, creating the potential for correlated evolution of pigmentation and vision. Here, we investigate differences in light preference within and between two sister species, Drosophila americana and D. novamexicana, which differ in pigmentation in part because of evolution at ebony and tan and occupy environments that differ in many variables including solar radiation. We hypothesized that lighter pigmentation would be correlated with a greater preference for environmental light and tested this hypothesis using a habitat choice experiment. In a first set of experiments, using males of D. novamexicana line N14 and D. americana line A00, the light-bodied D. novamexicana was found slightly but significantly more often than D. americana in the light habitat. A second experiment, which included additional lines and females as well as males, failed to find any significant difference between D. novamexicana-N14 and D. americana-A00. Additionally, the other dark line of D. americana (A04) was found in the light habitat more often than the light-bodied D. novamexicana-N14, in contrast to our predictions. However, the lightest line of D. americana, A01, was found substantially and significantly more often in the light habitat than the two darker lines of D. americana, thus providing partial support for our hypothesis. Finally, across all four lines, females were found more often in the light habitat than their more darkly pigmented male counterparts. Additional replication is needed to corroborate these findings and evaluate conflicting results, with the consistent effect of sex within and between species providing an especially intriguing avenue for further research.

Density, parasitism, and sexual reproduction are strongly correlated in lake Daphnia populations

Many organisms can reproduce both asexually and sexually. For cyclical parthenogens, periods of asexual reproduction are punctuated by bouts of sexual reproduction, and the shift from asexual to sexual reproduction has large impacts on fitness and population dynamics. We studied populations of Daphnia dentifera to determine the amount of investment in sexual reproduction as well as the factors associated with variation in investment in sex. To do so, we tracked host density, infections by nine different parasites, and sexual reproduction in 15 lake populations of D. dentifera for 3 years. Sexual reproduction was seasonal, with male and ephippial female production beginning as early as late September and generally increasing through November. However, there was substantial variation in the prevalence of sexual individuals across populations, with some populations remaining entirely asexual throughout the study period and others shifting almost entirely to sexual females and males. We found strong relationships between density, prevalence of infection, parasite species richness, and sexual reproduction in these populations. However, strong collinearity between density, parasitism, and sexual reproduction means that further work will be required to disentangle the causal mechanisms underlying these relationships.

Demographic history shapes genomic ancestry in hybrid zones

Demographic factors such as migration rate and population size can impede or facilitate speciation. In hybrid zones, reproductive boundaries between species are tested and demography mediates the opportunity for admixture between lineages that are partially isolated. Genomic ancestry is a powerful tool for revealing the history of admixed populations, but models and methods based on local ancestry are rarely applied to structured hybrid zones. To understand the effects of demography on ancestry in hybrids zones, we performed individual-based simulations under a stepping-stone model, treating migration rate, deme size, and hybrid zone age as parameters. We find that the number of ancestry junctions (the transition points between genomic regions with different ancestries) and heterogenicity (the genomic proportion heterozygous for ancestry) are often closely connected to demographic history. Reducing deme size reduces junction number and heterogenicity. Elevating migration rate increases heterogenicity, but migration affects junction number in more complex ways. We highlight the junction frequency spectrum as a novel and informative summary of ancestry that responds to demographic history. A substantial proportion of junctions are expected to fix when migration is limited or deme size is small, changing the shape of the spectrum. Our findings suggest that genomic patterns of ancestry could be used to infer demographic history in hybrid zones.

Global hotspots of coherent marine fishery catches

Although different fisheries can be tightly linked to each other by human and ecosystem processes, they are often managed independently. Synchronous fluctuations among fish populations or fishery catches can destabilize ecosystems and economies, respectively, but the degree of synchrony around the world remains unclear. We analyzed 1,092 marine fisheries catch time series over 60 yr to test for the presence of coherence, a form of synchrony that allows for phase-lagged relationships. We found that nearly every fishery was coherent with at least one other fishery catch time series globally and that coherence was strongest in the northeast Atlantic, western central Pacific, and eastern Indian Ocean. Analysis of fish biomass and fishing mortality time series from these hotspots revealed that coherence in biomass or fishing mortality were both possible, though biomass coherence was more common. Most of these relationships were synchronous with no time lags, and across catches in all regions, synchrony was a better predictor of regional catch portfolio effects than catch diversity. Regions with higher synchrony had lower stability in aggregate fishery catches, which can have negative consequences for food security and economic wealth.