Research on the impact of COVID-19 on the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon dioxide emissions in China

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, the Chinese government has imposed strict control measures on affected cities, which may have impacted the spatial and temporal pattern of carbon dioxide emissions. This paper follows the quantitative analysis method, experimental method, mathematical method, etc., and quantitatively studies the impact of the epidemic on China's carbon emissions. The combination model of ARIMA and BP neural network is used to predict the actual impact of epidemic situation on China's carbon emissions in 2020, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to analyze the spatial characteristics of China's provincial carbon emissions, which indicate that China's carbon emissions have consistently maintained a growth trend, from 2.05 billion tons in 2005 to 3.89 billion tons in 2019. Furthermore, the growth rate of carbon emissions and the changing trend of the emission intensity are the same, dropping from 12% in 2005 to 3% in 2019. The emission intensity also dropped from 1.1 in 2005 to 0.6 in 2019, indicating that the trend of increasing carbon emissions in northern provinces and Xinjiang changed significantly from 2005 to 2019. The overall carbon emissions of the 30 provinces in 2020 are predicted to be 4.068 billion tons, while the actual energy carbon emissions will be 3.921 billion tons, suggesting that the pandemic significantly reduced carbon emissions. Among affected provinces, carbon emissions from Hubei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and other places changed significantly, from 0.99, 0.25, 0.43, and 76 million tons in 2019 to 0.88, 0.24, 0.42, and 72 million tons in 2020, respectively. The results show a positive spatial correlation between China's provincial carbon emissions; the high-high and bottom-high agglomeration are mainly among the provinces, mainly distributed in North China and East China. Although the pandemic seriously impacts China's carbon emissions, each province's spatial relationship has not changed significantly.

Projected rapid growth in diabetes disease burden and economic burden in China: a spatio-temporal study from 2020 to 2030

Background

This study projects the trend of disease burden and economic burden of diabetes in 33 Chinese provinces and nationally during 2020-2030 and investigates its spatial disparities.

Methods

Time series prediction on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates of diabetes was conducted using a Bayesian modelling approach in 2020-2030. The top-down method and the human capital method were used to predict the direct and indirect costs of diabetes for each Chinese province. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to identify geographic clusters of low-or high-burden areas.

Findings

Diabetes prevalence in Chinese adults aged 20-79 years was projected to increase from 8.2% to 9.7% during 2020-2030. During the same period, the total costs of diabetes would increase from $250.2 billion to $460.4 billion, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 6.32%. The total costs of diabetes as a percentage of GDP would increase from 1.58% to 1.69% in China during 2020-2030, suggesting a faster growth in the economic burden of diabetes than China's economic growth. Consistently, the per-capita economic burden of diabetes would increase from $231 to $414 in China during 2020-2030, with an annual growth rate of 6.02%. High disease and economic burden areas were aggregated in Northeast and/or North China.

Interpretation

Our study projects a significant growth of disease and economic burden of diabetes in China during 2020-2030, with strong spatial aggregation in northern Chinese regions. The increase in the economic burden of diabetes will exceed that of GDP.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Outstanding Young Scholars Funding.

Disparities in access to cancer diagnostics in ASEAN member countries

Diagnostics, including laboratory tests, medical and nuclear imaging, and molecular testing, are essential in the diagnosis and management of cancer to optimize clinical outcomes. With the continuous rise in cancer mortality and morbidity in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), there exists a critical need to evaluate the accessibility of cancer diagnostics in the region so as to direct multifaceted interventions that will address regional inequities and inadequacies in cancer care. This paper identifies existing gaps in service delivery, health workforce, health information systems, leadership and governance, and financing and how these contribute to disparities in access to cancer diagnostics in ASEAN member countries. Intersectoral health policies that will strengthen coordinated laboratory services, upscale infrastructure development, encourage health workforce production, and enable proper appropriation of funding are necessary to effectively reduce the regional cancer burden.

Public Health Measures and Prevention of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

Hazardous alcohol consumption causes approximately 4% of deaths globally, constituting one of the leading risk factors for the burden of the disease worldwide. Alcohol has several health consequences, such as alcohol-associated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, nonliver neoplasms, physical injury, cardiac disease, and psychiatric disorders. Alcohol misuse significantly affects workforce productivity, with elevated direct and indirect economic costs. Due to the high impact of alcohol consumption on the population, public health has led to the development of a range of strategies to reduce its harmful effects. Regulatory public health policies (PHP) for alcohol can exist at the global, regional, international, national, or subnational levels. Effective strategies incorporate a multilevel, multicomponent approach, targeting multiple determinants of drinking and alcohol-related harms. The World Health Organization categorizes the PHP into eight categories: national plan to fight the harmful consequences of alcohol, national license and production and selling control, taxes control and pricing policies, limiting drinking age, restrictions on alcohol access, driving-related alcohol policies, control over advertising and promotion, and government monitoring systems. These policies are supported by evidence from different populations, demonstrating that determinants of alcohol use depend on several factors such as socioeconomic level, age, sex, ethnicity, production, availability, marketing, and others. Although most policies have a significant individual effect, a higher number of PHP are associated with a lower burden of disease due to alcohol. The excessive consequences of alcohol constitute a call for action, and clinicians should advocate for developing and implementing a new PHP on alcohol consumption.

R.Graph: A new risk-based causal reasoning and its application to COVID-19 risk analysis

Various unexpected, low-probability events can have short or long-term effects on organizations and the global economy. Hence there is a need for appropriate risk management practices within organizations to increase their readiness and resiliency, especially if an event may lead to a series of irreversible consequences. One of the main aspects of risk management is to analyze the levels of change and risk in critical variables which the organization's survival depends on. In these cases, an awareness of risks provides a practical plan for organizational managers to reduce/avoid them. Various risk analysis methods aim at analyzing the interactions of multiple risk factors within a specific problem. This paper develops a new method of variability and risk analysis, termed R.Graph, to examine the effects of a chain of possible risk factors on multiple variables. Additionally, different configurations of risk analysis are modeled, including acceptable risk, analysis of maximum and minimum risks, factor importance, and sensitivity analysis. This new method's effectiveness is evaluated via a practical analysis of the economic consequences of new Coronavirus in the electricity industry.

Paediatric Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and hypertension is rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries. This is evident not only in adults, but also in children. Recent estimates of prevalence in children are lacking, particularly in Africa. As such, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide updated estimates of paediatric hypertension in Africa.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and EBSCO to identify articles published from January 2017 to November 2020. Studies were assessed for quality. We combined results for meta-analyses using a random effects model (Freeman-Tukey arcsine transformation). Heterogeneity was quantified using the I² statistic.

FINDINGS

In the narrative synthesis of 53 studies, publication bias was low for 28, moderate for 24, and high for one study. Hypertension prevalence ranged substantially (0·2%-38·9%). Meta-analysis included 41 studies resulting in data on 52918 participants aged 3 to 19 years from ten countries. The pooled prevalence for hypertension (systolic/diastolic BP≥95th percentile) was 7·45% (95%CI 5·30-9·92, I²=98.96%), elevated blood pressure (BP, systolic/diastolic BP≥90th percentile and <95th percentile) 11·38% (95%CI 7·94-15·33, I²=98.97%) and combined hypertension/elevated BP 21·74% (95%CI 15·5-28·69, I²=99.48%). Participants categorized as overweight/with obesity had a higher prevalence of hypertension (18·5% [95%CI 10·2-28·5]) than those categorized as underweight/normal (1·0% [95%CI 0·1-2·6], 4·8% [95%CI 2·9-7·1], p<0·001). There were significant differences in hypertension prevalence when comparing BP measurement methods and classification guidelines.

INTERPRETATION

Compared to a previous systematic review conducted in 2017, this study suggests a continued increase in prevalence of paediatric hypertension in Africa, and highlights the potential role of increasing overweight/obesity.

FUNDING

This research was funded in part by the Wellcome Trust [Grant number:214082/Z/18/Z]. LJW and SAN are supported by the DSI-NRF Centre of Human Development at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Prevalence of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in India: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) contributes to a large proportion of liver disease burden in the world. Several groups have studied the prevalence of NAFLD in the Indian population.

AIM

A systematic review of the published literature and meta-analysis was carried out to estimate the prevalence of NAFLD in the Indian population.

METHODS

English language literature published until April 2021 was searched from electronic databases. Original data published in any form which had reported NAFLD prevalence in the Indian population were included. The subgroup analysis of prevalence was done based on the age (adults or children) and risk category, i.e., average-risk group (community population, participants of control arm, unselected participants, hypothyroidic individuals, athletes, aviation crew, and army personnel) and high-risk group (obesity or overweight, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, etc.). The prevalence estimates were pooled using the random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed with I².

RESULTS

Sixty-two datasets (children 8 and adults 54) from 50 studies were included. The pooled prevalence of NAFLD was estimated from 2903 children and 23,581 adult participants. Among adults, the estimated pooled prevalence was 38.6% (95% CI 32-45.5). The NAFLD prevalence in average-risk and high-risk subgroups was estimated to be 28.1% (95% CI 20.8-36) and 52.8% (95% CI 46.5-59.1), respectively. The estimated NAFLD prevalence was higher in hospital-based data (40.8% [95% CI 32.6-49.3%]) than community-based data (28.2% [95% CI 16.9-41%]). Among children, the estimated pooled prevalence was 35.4% (95% CI 18.2-54.7). The prevalence among non-obese and obese children was 12.4 (95% CI 4.4-23.5) and 63.4 (95% CI 59.4-67.3), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Available data suggest that approximately one in three adults or children have NAFLD in India.

Canadian report card on health equity across the life-course: Analysis of time trends and cross-national comparisons with the United Kingdom

Addressing social determinants of health (SDoH) has been acknowledged as an essential objective for the promotion of both population health and health equity. Extant literature has identified seven potential areas of investment to address SDoH: investments in sexual and reproductive health and family planning, early learning and child care, education, universal health care, as well as investments to reduce child poverty, ensure sustainable economic development, and control health hazards. The aim of this paper is to produce a ‘report card’ on Canada’s success in reducing socioeconomic and health inequities pertaining to these seven policy domains, and to assess how Canadian trends compare to those in the United Kingdom (UK), a country with a similar health and welfare system. Summarising evidence from published studies and national statistics, we found that Canada’s best successes were in reducing socioeconomic inequalities in early learning and child care and reproductive health—specifically in improving equity in maternal employment and infant mortality. Comparative data suggest that Canada’s outcomes in the latter areas were like those in the UK. In contrast, Canada’s least promising equity outcomes were in relation to health hazard control (specifically, tobacco) and child poverty. Though Canada and the UK observed similar inequities in smoking, Canada’s slow upward trend in child poverty prevalence is distinct from the UK’s small but steady reduction of child poverty. This divergence from the UK’s trends indicates that alternative investment types and levels may be needed in Canada to achieve similar outcomes to those in the UK.

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We summarize trends in health equity in Canada and compare Canadian trends to those in the United Kingdom (UK).

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Trends were assessed according to seven previously-identified domains of societal-level investments.

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Canada’s best improvements were in early learning and care and reproductive health. Trends were similar to those in the UK.

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Canadian equity trends in employment and universal health care were stable, and outperformed by those in the UK.

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Canada’s least promising trends were in smoking and child poverty. Unlike in the UK, child poverty has increaesd in Canada.