A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control

BACKGROUND

Marburg virus disease is an acute haemorrhagic fever caused by Marburg virus. Marburg virus is zoonotic, maintained in nature in Egyptian fruit bats, with occasional spillover infections into humans and nonhuman primates. Although rare, sporadic cases and outbreaks occur in Africa, usually associated with exposure to bats in mines or caves, and sometimes with secondary human-to-human transmission. Outbreaks outside of Africa have also occurred due to importation of infected monkeys. Although all previous Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been brought under control without vaccination, there is nevertheless the potential for large outbreaks when implementation of public health measures is not possible or breaks down. Vaccines could thus be an important additional tool, and development of several candidate vaccines is under way.

METHODS

We developed a branching process model of Marburg virus transmission and investigated the potential effects of several prophylactic and reactive vaccination strategies in settings driven primarily by multiple spillover events as well as human-to-human transmission. Linelist data from the 15 outbreaks up until 2022, as well as an Approximate Bayesian Computational framework, were used to inform the model parameters.

RESULTS

Our results show a low basic reproduction number which varied across outbreaks, from 0.5 [95% CI 0.05-1.8] to 1.2 [95% CI 1.0-1.9] but a high case fatality ratio. Of six vaccination strategies explored, the two prophylactic strategies (mass and targeted vaccination of high-risk groups), as well as a combination of ring and targeted vaccination, were generally most effective, with a probability of potential outbreaks being terminated within 1 year of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90-0.91), 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.87-0.89) compared with 0.68 (0.67-0.69) for no vaccination, especially if the outbreak is driven by zoonotic spillovers and the vaccination campaign initiated as soon as possible after onset of the first case.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that various vaccination strategies can be effective in helping to control outbreaks of MVD, with the best approach varying with the particular epidemiologic circumstances of each outbreak.

Reemergence of Marburgvirus disease: Update on current control and prevention measures and review of the literature

In 1967, the very first case of the Marburgvirus disease (MVD) was detected in Germany and Serbia sequentially. Since then, MVD has been considered one of the most serious and deadly infectious diseases in the world with a case-fatality rate between 23% and 90% and a substantial number of recorded deaths. Marburgvirus belongs to the family of Filoviridae (filoviruses), which causes severe viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF). Some major risk factors for human infections are close contact with African fruit bats, MVD-infected non-human primates, and MVD-infected individuals. Currently, there is no vaccine or specific treatment for MVD, which emphasizes the seriousness of this disease. In July 2022, the World Health Organization reported outbreaks of MVD in Ghana after two suspected VHF cases were detected. This was followed in February and March 2023 with the emergence of the virus in two countries new to the virus: Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania, respectively. In this review, we aim to highlight the characteristics, etiology, epidemiology, and clinical symptoms of MVD, along with the current prevention measures and the possible treatments to control this virus.

Assessing the feasibility of Phase 3 vaccine trials against Marburg Virus Disease: A modelling study

Background

Outbreaks of Marburg virus disease (MVD) are rare and small in size, with only 18 recorded outbreaks since 1967, only two of which involved more than 100 cases. It has been proposed, therefore, that Phase 3 trials for MVD vaccines should be held open over multiple outbreaks until sufficient end points accrue to enable vaccine efficacy (VE) to be calculated. Here we estimate how many outbreaks might be needed for VE to be estimated.

Methods

We adapt a mathematical model of MVD transmission to simulate a Phase 3 individually randomised placebo controlled vaccine trial. We assume in the base case that vaccine efficacy is 70% and that 50% of individuals in affected areas are enrolled into the trial (1:1 randomisation). We further assume that the vaccine trial starts two weeks after public health interventions are put in place and that cases occurring within 10 days of vaccination are not included in VE calculations.

Results

The median size of simulated outbreaks was 2 cases. Only 0.3% of simulated outbreaks were predicted to have more than 100 MVD cases. 95% of simulated outbreaks terminated before cases accrued in the placebo and vaccine arms. Therefore the number of outbreaks required to estimate VE was large: after 100 outbreaks, the estimated VE was 69% but with considerable uncertainty (95% CIs: 0%-100%) while the estimated VE after 200 outbreaks was 67% (95% CIs: 42%-85%). Altering base-case assumptions made little difference to the findings. In a sensitivity analysis, increasing R0 by 25% and 50% led to an estimated VE after 200 outbreaks of 69% (95% CIs: 53-85%) and 70% (95% CIs: 59-82%), respectively.

Conclusions

It is unlikely that the efficacy of any candidate vaccine can be calculated before more MVD outbreaks have occurred than have been recorded to date. This is because MVD outbreaks tend to be small, public health interventions have been historically effective at reducing transmission, and vaccine trials are only likely to start after these interventions are already in place. Hence, it is expected that outbreaks will terminate before, or shortly after, cases start to accrue in the vaccine and placebo arms.

The recent outbreaks of Marburg virus disease in African countries are indicating potential threat to the global public health: Future prediction from historical data

Marburg virus disease (MVD) caused by the Marburg virus has a high mortality rate. Rousettus aegyptiacus fruit bats act as the natural reservoir host of the virus. But it can also potentially be transmitted from person to person through direct contact with body secretions. The recent outbreaks have already killed seven people out of nine confirmed cases in Equatorial Guinea and five patients out of eight confirmed cases in Tanzania. In the recent past, Ghana reported three MVD cases and two associated deaths in 2022. Specific treatments or vaccines are unavailable for MVD, and supportive care is the primary treatment option. The history of MVD outbreaks and the current scenario show its potential to become an emerging threat to global public health. The recent outbreaks in Tanzania and Equatorial Guinea have already caused a high fatality rate. The absence of effective treatment and vaccines raises concerns about the potential to cause widespread harm. Besides, its capacity for human-to-human transmission and potential to cross the country's border could result in a multicountry outbreak. Therefore, we recommend intensive surveillance of MVD, preventative measures, and early detection to limit the spread of the disease and prevent another pandemic.

A biaryl sulfonamide derivative as a novel inhibitor of filovirus infection

Ebolaviruses and marburgviruses, members of the family Filoviridae, are known to cause fatal diseases often associated with hemorrhagic fever. Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in West African countries and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have made clear the urgent need for the development of therapeutics and vaccines against filoviruses. Using replication-incompetent vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) pseudotyped with the Ebola virus (EBOV) envelope glycoprotein (GP), we screened a chemical compound library to obtain new drug candidates that inhibit filoviral entry into target cells. We discovered a biaryl sulfonamide derivative that suppressed in vitro infection mediated by GPs derived from all known human-pathogenic filoviruses. To determine the inhibitory mechanism of the compound, we monitored each entry step (attachment, internalization, and membrane fusion) using lipophilic tracer-labeled ebolavirus-like particles and found that the compound efficiently blocked fusion between the viral envelope and the endosomal membrane during cellular entry. However, the compound did not block the interaction of GP with the Niemann-Pick C1 protein, which is believed to be the receptor of filoviruses. Using replication-competent VSVs pseudotyped with EBOV GP, we selected escape mutants and identified two EBOV GP amino acid residues (positions 47 and 66) important for the interaction with this compound. Interestingly, these amino acid residues were located at the base region of the GP trimer, suggesting that the compound might interfere with the GP conformational change required for membrane fusion. These results suggest that this biaryl sulfonamide derivative is a novel fusion inhibitor and a possible drug candidate for the development of a pan-filovirus therapeutic.

Seroreactivity against Marburg or related filoviruses in West and Central Africa

A serological survey of 2,430 archived serum samples collected between 1997 and 2012 was conducted to retrospectively determine the prevalence of Marburg virus in five African countries. Serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies in a pseudotype micro-neutralization assay and confirmed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Surprisingly, a seroprevalence for Marburg virus of 7.5 and 6.3% was found in Cameroon and Ghana, respectively, suggesting the circulation of filoviruses or related viruses outside of known endemic areas that remain undetected by current surveillance efforts. However, due to the lack of validated assays and appropriate positive controls, these results must be considered preliminary.

Marburgvirus in Egyptian Fruit Bats, Zambia

We detected Marburg virus genome in Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) captured in Zambia in September 2018. The virus was closely related phylogenetically to the viruses that previously caused Marburg outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This finding demonstrates that Zambia is at risk for Marburg virus disease.

Identity and validity of conserved B cell epitopes of filovirus glycoprotein: towards rapid diagnostic testing for Ebola and possibly Marburg virus disease

Background

Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus are genera of the virus family Filoviridae. Filoviruses cause rare but fatal viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) in remote villages of equatorial Africa with potential for regional and international spread. Point-of-care (POC) rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are critical for early epidemic detection, reponse and control. There are 2 RDTs for Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), but not other Ebolavirus spp. or Marburg marburgvirus (MARV). We validate 3 conserved B cell epitopes of filovirus glycoprotein (GP) using ebola virus diseases (EVD) survivor samples, towards devising pan-filovirus RDTs.

Methods

In-silico Immuno-informatics:- (a) multiple and basic local alignments of amino-acid sequences of filovirus (4 Ebolavirus spp. & MARV) Gp1, 2 and epitope prediction and conservation analyses within context of ClusterW, BLAST-P and the immune epitope database analysis resource (IEDB-AR); alongside (b) in-vitro enzyme immuno-assays (EIAs) for SUDV Gp1, 2 antigen and host-specific antibodies (IgM and IgG) among 94 gamma irradiated EVD survivor serum and 9 negative controls.

Results

Linear B cell epitopes were present across the entire length of all Gp1, 2, most lying in the region between amino acids positioned 350 and 500. Three seperate epitopes 97/80_GAFFLYDRLAST, 39_YEAGEWAENCY and 500_CGLRQLANETTQALQLFLRATTELR (designated UG-Filo-Peptide− 1, 2 and 3 respectively) were conserved within all studied filovirus species Gp1, 2. Gp1, 2 host specific IgM levels were comparably low (av. ODs < 0.04 [95% CI: 0.02837 to 0.04033]) among the 9 negative controls and 57 survivor samples analyzed. Host specific IgG levels, on the other hand, were elevated (av. ODs > 1.7525 [95% CI: 0.3010 to 3.1352]) among the 92 survivor samples relative to the 9 negative controls (av. ODs < 0.2.321 [95% CI: -0.7596 to 0.5372]). Filovirus Gp1, 2 antigen was not detected [av. ODs < 0.20] within EVD survivor serum relative to recombinant protein positive controls [av. ODs = 0.50].

Conclusions

These conserved B cell epitopes of filovirus Gp1, 2 and their derivative antibodies are promising for research and development of RDTs for EVD, with potential for extension to detect MVD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3409-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Quantification of Filovirus Glycoprotein-Specific Antibodies

Serological methods such as the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and virus neutralization test are fundamental tools used in diagnosis, seroepidemiological studies of filovirus transmission/prevalence, and the evaluation of vaccine immunogenicity and potential therapeutic antibodies. Filoviruses have a single transmembrane glycoprotein (GP), which is the only known target of neutralizing antibodies. Here we describe serological methods to quantify filovirus GP-specific antibodies.

Guide to the Correct Use of Filoviral Nomenclature

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) currently recognizes three genera and seven species as part of the mononegaviral family Filoviridae. Eight distinct filoviruses (Bundibugyo virus, Ebola virus, Lloviu virus, Marburg virus, Ravn virus, Reston virus, Sudan virus, and Taï Forest virus) have been assigned to these seven species. This chapter briefly summarizes the status quo of filovirus classification and focuses on the importance of differentiating between filoviral species and filoviruses and the correct use of taxonomic and vernacular filovirus names and abbreviations in written and oral discourse.

Lentiviral Vectors Pseudotyped with Filoviral Glycoproteins

Pseudotyping lentivirus-based vectors is a strategy used to study conferred vector tropism and mechanisms of envelope glycoprotein function. Lentiviruses and filoviruses both assemble at the plasma membrane and have homotrimeric structural envelope glycoproteins that mediate both receptor binding and fusion. Such similarities help foster efficient pseudotyping. Importantly, filovirus glycoprotein pseudotyping of lentiviral vectors allows investigators to study virus entry at substantially less restrictive levels of biosafety containment than that required for wild-type filovirus work (biosafety level-2 vs. biosafety level-4, respectively). Standard lentiviral vector production involves transient transfection of viral component expression plasmids into producer cells, supernatant collection, and centrifuge concentration. Because the envelope glycoprotein expression plasmid is provided in trans, wild type or variant filoviral glycoproteins from marburgvirus or ebolavirus species may be used for pseudotyping and compared side-by-side. In this chapter we discuss the manufacture of pseudotyped lentiviral vector with an emphasis on small-scale laboratory grade production.

Novel activities by ebolavirus and marburgvirus interferon antagonists revealed using a standardized in vitro reporter system

Filoviruses are highly lethal in humans and nonhuman primates, likely due to potent antagonism of host interferon (IFN) responses early in infection. Filoviral protein VP35 is implicated as the major IFN induction antagonist, while Ebola virus (EBOV) VP24 or Marburg virus (MARV) VP40 are known to block downstream IFN signaling. Despite progress elucidating EBOV and MARV antagonist function, those for most other filoviruses, including Reston (RESTV), Sudan (SUDV), Taï Forest (TAFV), Bundibugyo (BDBV) and Ravn (RAVV) viruses, remain largely neglected. Thus, using standardized vectors and reporter assays, we characterized activities by each IFN antagonist from all known ebolavirus and marburgvirus species side-by-side. We uncover noncanonical suppression of IFN induction by ebolavirus VP24, differing potencies by MARV and RAVV proteins, and intriguingly, weaker antagonism by VP24 of RESTV. These underlying molecular explanations for differential virulence in humans could guide future investigations of more-neglected filoviruses as well as treatment and vaccine studies.

Validation of the Filovirus Plaque Assay for Use in Preclinical Studies

A plaque assay for quantitating filoviruses in virus stocks, prepared viral challenge inocula and samples from research animals has recently been fully characterized and standardized for use across multiple institutions performing Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) studies. After standardization studies were completed, Good Laboratory Practices (GLP)-compliant plaque assay method validation studies to demonstrate suitability for reliable and reproducible measurement of the Marburg Virus Angola (MARV) variant and Ebola Virus Kikwit (EBOV) variant commenced at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID). The validation parameters tested included accuracy, precision, linearity, robustness, stability of the virus stocks and system suitability. The MARV and EBOV assays were confirmed to be accurate to ±0.5 log₁₀ PFU/mL. Repeatability precision, intermediate precision and reproducibility precision were sufficient to return viral titers with a coefficient of variation (%CV) of ≤30%, deemed acceptable variation for a cell-based bioassay. Intraclass correlation statistical techniques for the evaluation of the assay’s precision when the same plaques were quantitated by two analysts returned values passing the acceptance criteria, indicating high agreement between analysts. The assay was shown to be accurate and specific when run on Nonhuman Primates (NHP) serum and plasma samples diluted in plaque assay medium, with negligible matrix effects. Virus stocks demonstrated stability for freeze-thaw cycles typical of normal usage during assay retests. The results demonstrated that the EBOV and MARV plaque assays are accurate, precise and robust for filovirus titration in samples associated with the performance of GLP animal model studies.

Molecular architecture of the nucleoprotein C-terminal domain from the Ebola and Marburg viruses

The Filoviridae family of negative-sense, single-stranded RNA (ssRNA) viruses is comprised of two species of Marburgvirus (MARV and RAVV) and five species of Ebolavirus, i.e. Zaire (EBOV), Reston (RESTV), Sudan (SUDV), Taï Forest (TAFV) and Bundibugyo (BDBV). In each of these viruses the ssRNA encodes seven distinct proteins. One of them, the nucleoprotein (NP), is the most abundant viral protein in the infected cell and within the viral nucleocapsid. It is tightly associated with the viral RNA in the nucleocapsid, and during the lifecycle of the virus is essential for transcription, RNA replication, genome packaging and nucleocapsid assembly prior to membrane encapsulation. The structure of the unique C-terminal globular domain of the NP from EBOV has recently been determined and shown to be structurally unrelated to any other known protein [Dziubańska et al. (2014), Acta Cryst. D70, 2420-2429]. In this paper, a study of the C-terminal domains from the NP from the remaining four species of Ebolavirus, as well as from the MARV strain of Marburgvirus, is reported. As expected, the crystal structures of the BDBV and TAFV proteins show high structural similarity to that from EBOV, while the MARV protein behaves like a molten globule with a core residual structure that is significantly different from that of the EBOV protein.

Filoviruses: One of These Things is (not) Like the Other

The family Filoviridae contains several of the most deadly pathogens known to date and the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Western Africa, due to Ebola virus (EBOV) infection, highlights the need for active and broad research into filovirus pathogenesis. However, in comparison, the seven other known filovirus family members are significantly understudied. Many of these, including Marburgviruses and Ebolaviruses other than EBOV, are also highly virulent and fully capable of causing widespread epidemics. This review places the focus on these non-EBOV filoviruses, including known immunological and pathological data. The available animal models, research tools and currently available therapeutics will also be discussed along with an emphasis in the large number of current gaps in knowledge of these less highlighted filoviruses. It is evident that much research is yet to be done in order to bring the non-EBOV filovirus field to the forefront of current research and, importantly, to the development of more effective vaccines and therapeutics to combat potential future outbreaks.

Experimental Inoculation of Egyptian Rousette Bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) with Viruses of the Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus Genera

The Egyptian rousette bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) is a natural reservoir for marburgviruses and a consistent source of virus spillover to humans. Cumulative evidence suggests various bat species may also transmit ebolaviruses. We investigated the susceptibility of Egyptian rousettes to each of the five known ebolaviruses (Sudan, Ebola, Bundibugyo, Taï Forest, and Reston), and compared findings with Marburg virus. In a pilot study, groups of four juvenile bats were inoculated with one of the ebolaviruses or Marburg virus. In ebolavirus groups, viral RNA tissue distribution was limited, and no bat became viremic. Sudan viral RNA was slightly more widespread, spurring a second, 15-day Sudan virus serial euthanasia study. Low levels of Sudan viral RNA disseminated to multiple tissues at early time points, but there was no viremia or shedding. In contrast, Marburg virus RNA was widely disseminated, with viremia, oral and rectal shedding, and antigen in spleen and liver. This is the first experimental infection study comparing tissue tropism, viral shedding, and clinical and pathologic effects of six different filoviruses in the Egyptian rousette, a known marburgvirus reservoir. Our results suggest Egyptian rousettes are unlikely sources for ebolaviruses in nature, and support a possible single filovirus-single reservoir host relationship.

Stat1-Deficient Mice Are Not an Appropriate Model for Efficacy Testing of Recombinant Vesicular Stomatitis Virus-Based Filovirus Vaccines

Stat1(-/-) mice lack a response to interferon α, β, and γ, allowing for replication of nonadapted wild-type (wt) Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus. We sought to establish a mouse model for efficacy testing of live attenuated recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV)-based filovirus vaccine vectors using wt Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus challenge strains. While infection of immunocompetent mice with different rVSV-based filovirus vectors did not cause disease, infection of Stat1(-/-) mice with the same vectors resulted in systemic infection and lethal outcome for the majority of tested rVSVs. Despite differences in viral loads, organ tropism was remarkably similar between rVSV filovirus vaccine vectors and rVSVwt, with the exception of the brain. In conclusion, Stat1(-/-) mice are not an appropriate immunocompromised mouse model for efficacy testing of live attenuated, replication-competent rVSV vaccine vectors.

Evidence that ebolaviruses and cuevaviruses have been diverging from marburgviruses since the Miocene

An understanding of the timescale of evolution is critical for comparative virology but remains elusive for many RNA viruses. Age estimates based on mutation rates can severely underestimate divergences for ancient viral genes that are evolving under strong purifying selection. Paleoviral dating, however, can provide minimum age estimates for ancient divergence, but few orthologous paleoviruses are known within clades of extant viruses. For example, ebolaviruses and marburgviruses are well-studied mammalian pathogens, but their comparative biology is difficult to interpret because the existing estimates of divergence are controversial. Here we provide evidence that paleoviral elements of two genes (ebolavirus-like VP35 and NP) in cricetid rodent genomes originated after the divergence of ebolaviruses and cuevaviruses from marburgviruses. We provide evidence of orthology by identifying common paleoviral insertion sites among the rodent genomes. Our findings indicate that ebolaviruses and cuevaviruses have been diverging from marburgviruses since the early Miocene.

Forensic signatures for Marburgviruses

Marburgvirus is one of the most important hemorrhagic fever viruses with extremely high infectivity and fatality rate (~90%). It is transmitted easily in human populations through a respiratory route and therefore considered as a major biothreat agent. Although detection assays have been developed, no assay is available for forensic analysis. Here we report development of forensic assays for Marburgvirus. We performed detailed phylogenetic analysis of strains and isolates from all known Marburg virus outbreaks as well as from several laboratory strains and identified canonical SNPs for all major clades (outbreaks) and strains. TaqMan-MGB allelic discrimination assays targeting these SNPs were designed and experimentally screened against synthetic RNA templates and genomic RNAs. A total of 45 assays were validated to provide 100% coverage of the clades (outbreaks) and 91% at the strain level (21 out of the 23 targeted Marburgvirus strains) with built-in redundancy for increased robustness. Using these validated assays, we were able to provide accurate forensic analysis on 3 "unknown" Marburgviruses. These high-resolution forensic assays allow rapid and accurate genotyping of Marburgviruses for forensic investigations.

Development of a reverse genetics system to generate recombinant Marburg virus derived from a bat isolate

Recent investigations have shown the Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) to be a natural reservoir for marburgviruses. To better understand the life cycle of these viruses in the natural host, a new reverse genetics system was developed for the reliable rescue of a Marburg virus (MARV) originally isolated directly from a R. aegyptiacus bat (371Bat). To develop this system, the exact terminal sequences were first determined by 5' and 3' RACE, followed by the cloning of viral proteins NP, VP35, VP30 and L into expression plasmids. Novel conditions were then developed to efficiently replicate virus mini-genomes followed by the construction of full-length genomic clones from which recombinant wild type and GFP-containing MARVs were rescued. Surprisingly, when these recombinant MARVs were propagated in primary human macrophages, a dramatic difference was found in their ability to grow and to elicit anti-viral cytokine responses.

Filoviral immune evasion mechanisms

The Filoviridae family of viruses, which includes the genera Ebolavirus (EBOV) and Marburgvirus (MARV), causes severe and often times lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans. Filoviral infections are associated with ineffective innate antiviral responses as a result of virally encoded immune antagonists, which render the host incapable of mounting effective innate or adaptive immune responses. The Type I interferon (IFN) response is critical for establishing an antiviral state in the host cell and subsequent activation of the adaptive immune responses. Several filoviral encoded components target Type I IFN responses, and this innate immune suppression is important for viral replication and pathogenesis. For example, EBOV VP35 inhibits the phosphorylation of IRF-3/7 by the TBK-1/IKKε kinases in addition to sequestering viral RNA from detection by RIG-I like receptors. MARV VP40 inhibits STAT1/2 phosphorylation by inhibiting the JAK family kinases. EBOV VP24 inhibits nuclear translocation of activated STAT1 by karyopherin-α. The examples also represent distinct mechanisms utilized by filoviral proteins in order to counter immune responses, which results in limited IFN-α/β production and downstream signaling.