Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Influenza B virus neuraminidase: a potential target for next-generation vaccines?

INTRODUCTION

Influenza B viruses (IBV) cause a significant health and economic burden annually. Due to lower antigenic drift rate, less extensive antigenic diversity, and lack of animal reservoirs, the development of highly effective universal vaccines against IBV might be in reach. Current seasonal influenza vaccines are formulated to induce antibodies against the Hemagglutinin (HA) protein, but their effectiveness is reduced by mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains.

AREAS COVERED

Given antibodies against the Neuraminidase (NA) have been associated with protection during influenza infection, there is considerable interest in the development of NA-based influenza vaccines. This review summarizes insights into the role of NA-based immunity against IBV and highlights knowledge gaps that should be addressed to inform the design of next-generation influenza B vaccines. We discuss how antibodies recognize broadly cross-reactive epitopes on the NA and the lack of understanding of IBV NA antigenic evolution which would benefit vaccine development in the future.

EXPERT OPINION

Demonstrating NA antibodies as correlates of protection for IBV in humans would be paramount. Determining the extent of IBV NA antigenic evolution will be informative. Finally, it will be critical to determine optimal strategies for incorporating the appropriate NA antigens in existing clinically approved vaccine formulations.

An atlas of continuous adaptive evolution in endemic human viruses

Through antigenic evolution, viruses such as seasonal influenza evade recognition by neutralizing antibodies. This means that a person with antibodies well tuned to an initial infection will not be protected against the same virus years later and that vaccine-mediated protection will decay. To expand our understanding of which endemic human viruses evolve in this fashion, we assess adaptive evolution across the genome of 28 endemic viruses spanning a wide range of viral families and transmission modes. Surface proteins consistently show the highest rates of adaptation, and ten viruses in this panel are estimated to undergo antigenic evolution to selectively fix mutations that enable the escape of prior immunity. Thus, antibody evasion is not an uncommon evolutionary strategy among human viruses, and monitoring this evolution will inform future vaccine efforts. Additionally, by comparing overall amino acid substitution rates, we show that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating protein-coding changes at substantially faster rates than endemic viruses.

Characterization of A/H7 influenza virus global antigenic diversity and key determinants in the hemagglutinin globular head mediating A/H7N9 antigenic evolution

IMPORTANCE

A/H7 avian influenza viruses cause outbreaks in poultry globally, resulting in outbreaks with significant socio-economical impact and zoonotic risks. Occasionally, poultry vaccination programs have been implemented to reduce the burden of these viruses, which might result in an increased immune pressure accelerating antigenic evolution. In fact, evidence for antigenic diversification of A/H7 influenza viruses exists, posing challenges to pandemic preparedness and the design of vaccination strategies efficacious against drifted variants. Here, we performed a comprehensive analysis of the global antigenic diversity of A/H7 influenza viruses and identified the main substitutions in the hemagglutinin responsible for antigenic evolution in A/H7N9 viruses isolated between 2013 and 2019. The A/H7 antigenic map and knowledge of the molecular determinants of their antigenic evolution add value to A/H7 influenza virus surveillance programs, the design of vaccines and vaccination strategies, and pandemic preparedness.

Analysis of the evolution, infectivity and antigenicity of circulating rabies virus strains

Rabies virus has existed for thousands of years and is circulating in many species. In the present study, a total of 2896 rabies viruses isolated worldwide were phylogenetically classified into ten clusters based on the G gene sequence, and these clusters showed a close relationship with the hosts and regions that they were isolated from. Eighty-three representative G sequences were selected from ten clusters and were used to construct pseudoviruses using the VSV vector. The phylogenetic relationships, infectivity and antigenicity of the representative 83 pseudotyped rabies viruses were comprehensively analyzed. Eighty three pseudoviruses were divided into four antigentic clusters (GAgV), of which GAgV4 showed poor neutralization to all immunized sera. Further analysis showed that almost all strains in the GAgV4 were isolated from wild animals in the America, especially bats and skunks. No significant relationship in terms of phylogeny, infectivity and antigenicity was proved. Amino acid mutations at residues 231and 436 can affect the infectivity, while mutations at residues 113, 164 and 254 may affect the sensitivity to immunized animal sera, especially residue 254. We recommend close monitoring of infectivity and antigenicity, which should be more precise than simple genetic analysis.

Phylogenetic Inference of the 2022 Highly Pathogenic H7N3 Avian Influenza Outbreak in Northern Mexico

The Mexican lineage H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has persisted in Mexican poultry since its first isolation in 2012. To date, the detection of this virus has gradually expanded from the initial one state to 18 states in Mexico. Despite the HPAIV H7N3 outbreak occurring yearly, the transmission pathways have never been studied, disallowing the establishment of effective control measures. We used a phylogenetic approach to unravel the transmission pathways of 2022 H7N3 HPAIVs in the new outbreak areas in Northern Mexico. We present genetic data of H7N3 viruses produced from 18 poultry farms infected in the spring of 2022. Our results indicate that the virus responsible for the current outbreak in Northern Mexico evolved from the Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAIV discovered in 2012. In the current outbreak, we identified five clusters of infection with four noticeably different genetic backgrounds. It is a cluster IV-like virus that was transmitted into one northern state causing an outbreak, then spreading to another neighboring northern state, possibly via a human-mediated mechanical transmission mechanism. The long-distance transmission event highlights the necessity for the more rigorous enforcement of biosafety measures in outbreaks. Additionally, we examined the evolutionary processes shaping the viral genetic and antigenic diversities. It is imperative to enhance active surveillance to include birds, the environment, and humans to detect HPAI in domestic poultry at an earlier point and eliminate it.

Substitutions near the HA receptor binding site explain the origin and major antigenic change of the B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages

Influenza B virus primarily infects humans, causing seasonal epidemics globally. Two antigenic variants-Victoria-like and Yamagata-like-were detected in the 1980s, of which the molecular basis of emergence is still incompletely understood. Here, the antigenic properties of a unique collection of historical virus isolates, sampled from 1962 to 2000 and passaged exclusively in mammalian cells to preserve antigenic properties, were determined with the hemagglutination inhibition assay and an antigenic map was built to quantify and visualize the divergence of the lineages. The antigenic map revealed only three distinct antigenic clusters-Early, Victoria, and Yamagata-with relatively little antigenic diversity in each cluster until 2000. Viruses with Victoria-like antigenic properties emerged around 1972 and diversified subsequently into two genetic lineages. Viruses with Yamagata-like antigenic properties evolved from one lineage and became clearly antigenically distinct from the Victoria-like viruses around 1988. Recombinant mutant viruses were tested to show that insertions and deletions (indels), as observed frequently in influenza B virus hemagglutinin, had little effect on antigenic properties. In contrast, amino-acid substitutions at positions 148, 149, 150, and 203, adjacent to the hemagglutinin receptor binding site, determined the main antigenic differences between the Early, Victoria-like, and Yamagata-like viruses. Surprisingly, substitutions at two of the four positions reverted in recent viruses of the Victoria lineage, resulting in antigenic properties similar to viruses circulating ∼50 y earlier. These data shed light on the antigenic diversification of influenza viruses and suggest there may be limits to the antigenic evolution of influenza B virus.

The evolutionary potential of influenza A virus hemagglutinin is highly constrained by epistatic interactions with neuraminidase

Antigenic evolution of the influenza A virus (IAV) hemagglutinin (HA) gene limits efforts to effectively control the spread of the virus in the population. Efforts to understand the mechanisms governing HA antigenic evolution typically examine the HA gene in isolation. This can ignore the importance of balancing HA receptor binding activities with the receptor-destroying activities of the viral neuraminidase (NA) to maintain viral fitness. We hypothesize that the need to maintain functional balance with NA significantly constrains the evolutionary potential of the HA. We use deep mutational scanning and show that variation in NA activity significantly reshapes the HA fitness landscape by modulating the overall mutational robustness of HA. Consistent with this, we observe that different NA backgrounds support the emergence of distinct repertoires of HA escape variants under neutralizing antibody pressure. Our results reveal a critical role for intersegment epistasis in influencing the evolutionary potential of the HA gene.

Mosaic vaccination: How distributing different vaccines across a population could improve epidemic control

Although vaccination has been remarkably effective against some pathogens, for others, rapid antigenic evolution results in vaccination conferring only weak and/or short‐lived protection. Consequently, considerable effort has been invested in developing more evolutionarily robust vaccines, either by targeting highly conserved components of the pathogen (universal vaccines) or by including multiple immunological targets within a single vaccine (multi‐epitope vaccines). An unexplored third possibility is to vaccinate individuals with one of a number of qualitatively different vaccines, creating a “mosaic” of individual immunity in the population. Here we explore whether a mosaic vaccination strategy can deliver superior epidemiological outcomes to “conventional” vaccination, in which all individuals receive the same vaccine. We suppose vaccine doses can be distributed between distinct vaccine “targets” (e.g., different surface proteins against which an immune response can be generated) and/or immunologically distinct variants at these targets (e.g., strains); the pathogen can undergo antigenic evolution at both targets. Using simple mathematical models, here we provide a proof‐of‐concept that mosaic vaccination often outperforms conventional vaccination, leading to fewer infected individuals, improved vaccine efficacy, and lower individual risks over the course of the epidemic.

SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding mutations and antibody contact sites

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mutations can impact infectivity, viral load, and overall morbidity/mortality during infection. In this analysis, we look at the mutational landscape of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain, a structure that is antigenic and allows for viral binding to the host. We develop a bioinformatics platform and analyze 104 193 Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data sequences acquired on 15 October 2020, with a majority of sequences (96%) containing point mutations. We report high frequency mutations with improved binding affinity to ACE2 including S477N, N439K, V367F, and N501Y and address the potential impact of RBD mutations on antibody binding. The high frequency S477N mutation is present in 6.7% of all SARS-CoV-2 sequences, co-occurs with D614G, and is currently present in 14 countries. To address RBD-antibody interactions, we take a subset of human-derived antibodies and define their interacting residues using PDBsum. Our analysis shows that RBD mutations were found in approximately 9% of our dataset, with some mutations improving RBD-ACE2 interactions. We also show that antibody-mediated immunity against SARS-CoV-2 enlists broad coverage of the RBD, with multiple antibodies targeting a variety of RBD regions. These data suggest that it is unlikely for neutralization/RBD antibody binding to be significantly impacted, as a whole, in the presence of RBD point mutations that conserve the RBD structure.

Influenza immune escape under heterogeneous host immune histories

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences.

Antigenic Evolution on a Global Scale Reveals the Potential Natural Selection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 by Pre-existing Cross-Reactive T-Cell Immunity

The mutation pattern of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has changed constantly during worldwide community transmission of this virus. However, the reasons for the changes in mutation patterns are still unclear. Accordingly, in this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of over 300 million peptides derived from 13,432 SARS-CoV-2 strains harboring 4,420 amino acid mutations to analyze the potential selective pressure of the host immune system and reveal the driver of mutations in circulating SARS-CoV-2 isolates. The results showed that the nonstructural protein ORF1ab and the structural protein Spike were most susceptible to mutations. Furthermore, mutations in cross-reactive T-cell epitopes between SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal human coronavirus may help SARS-CoV-2 to escape cellular immunity under long-term and large-scale community transmission. Additionally, through homology modeling and protein docking, mutations in Spike protein may enhance the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to invade host cells and escape antibody-mediated B-cell immunity. Our research provided insights into the potential mutation patterns of SARS-CoV-2 under natural selection, improved our understanding of the evolution of the virus, and established important guidance for potential vaccine design.

Serotypic evolution of measles virus is constrained by multiple co-dominant B cell epitopes on its surface glycoproteins

After centuries of pestilence and decades of global vaccination, measles virus (MeV) genotypes capable of evading vaccine-induced immunity have not emerged. Here, by systematically building mutations into the hemagglutinin (H) glycoprotein of an attenuated measles virus strain and assaying for serum neutralization, we show that virus evolution is severely constrained by the existence of numerous co-dominant H glycoprotein antigenic sites, some critical for binding to the pathogenicity receptors SLAMF1 and nectin-4. We further demonstrate the existence in serum of protective neutralizing antibodies targeting co-dominant fusion (F) glycoprotein epitopes. Lack of a substantial reduction in serum neutralization of mutant measles viruses that retain even one of the co-dominant antigenic sites makes evolution of pathogenic measles viruses capable of escaping serum neutralization in vaccinated individuals extremely unlikely.

Evidence for adaptive evolution in the receptor-binding domain of seasonal coronaviruses OC43 and 229e

Seasonal coronaviruses (OC43, 229E, NL63, and HKU1) are endemic to the human population, regularly infecting and reinfecting humans while typically causing asymptomatic to mild respiratory infections. It is not known to what extent reinfection by these viruses is due to waning immune memory or antigenic drift of the viruses. Here we address the influence of antigenic drift on immune evasion of seasonal coronaviruses. We provide evidence that at least two of these viruses, OC43 and 229E, are undergoing adaptive evolution in regions of the viral spike protein that are exposed to human humoral immunity. This suggests that reinfection may be due, in part, to positively selected genetic changes in these viruses that enable them to escape recognition by the immune system. It is possible that, as with seasonal influenza, these adaptive changes in antigenic regions of the virus would necessitate continual reformulation of a vaccine made against them.

Complete Mapping of Mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-Binding Domain that Escape Antibody Recognition

Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) are being developed as therapeutics and are a major contributor to neutralizing antibody responses elicited by infection. Here, we describe a deep mutational scanning method to map how all amino-acid mutations in the RBD affect antibody binding and apply this method to 10 human monoclonal antibodies. The escape mutations cluster on several surfaces of the RBD that broadly correspond to structurally defined antibody epitopes. However, even antibodies targeting the same surface often have distinct escape mutations. The complete escape maps predict which mutations are selected during viral growth in the presence of single antibodies. They further enable the design of escape-resistant antibody cocktails-including cocktails of antibodies that compete for binding to the same RBD surface but have different escape mutations. Therefore, complete escape-mutation maps enable rational design of antibody therapeutics and assessment of the antigenic consequences of viral evolution.

Genetic and antigenic characteristics of a human influenza C virus clinical isolate

Unlike influenza A and B viruses that infect humans and cause severe diseases in seasonal epidemics, influenza C virus (ICV) is a ubiquitous childhood pathogen typically causing mild respiratory symptoms. ICV infections are rarely diagnosed and less research has been performed on it despite the virus being capable of causing severe disease in infants. Here we report on the isolation of a human ICV from a child with acute respiratory disease, provisionally designated C/Victoria/2/2012 (C/Vic). The full-length genome sequence and phylogenetic analysis revealed that the hemagglutinin-esterase-fusion (HEF) gene of C/Vic was derived from C/Sao Paulo lineage, while its PB2 and P3 genes evolved separately from all characterized historical ICV isolates. Furthermore, antigenic analysis using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay found that 1947 C/Taylor virus (C/Taylor lineage) was antigenically more divergent from1966 C/Johannesburg (C/Aichi lineage) than from 2012 C/Vic. Structure modeling of the HEF protein identified two mutations in the 170-loop of the HEF protein around the receptor-binding pocket as a possible antigenic determinant responsible for the discrepant HI results. Taken together, results of our studies reveal novel insights into the genetic and antigenic evolution of ICV and provide a framework for further investigation of its molecular determinants of antigenic property and replication.

Dengue genetic divergence generates within-serotype antigenic variation, but serotypes dominate evolutionary dynamics

Dengue virus (DENV) exists as four genetically distinct serotypes, each of which is historically assumed to be antigenically uniform. Recent analyses suggest that antigenic heterogeneity may exist within each serotype, but its source, extent and impact remain unclear. Here, we construct a sequence-based model to directly map antigenic change to underlying genetic divergence. We identify 49 specific substitutions and four colinear substitution clusters that robustly predict dengue antigenic relationships. We report moderate antigenic diversity within each serotype, resulting in genotype-specific patterns of heterotypic cross-neutralization. We also quantify the impact of antigenic variation on real-world DENV population dynamics, and find that serotype-level antigenic fitness is a dominant driver of dengue clade turnover. These results provide a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between dengue genetic and antigenic evolution, and quantify the effect of antigenic fitness on dengue evolutionary dynamics.

Epistatic interactions can moderate the antigenic effect of substitutions in haemagglutinin of influenza H3N2 virus

We previously showed that single amino acid substitutions at seven positions in haemagglutinin determined major antigenic change of influenza H3N2 virus. Here, the impact of two such substitutions was tested in 11 representative H3 haemagglutinins to investigate context-dependence effects. The antigenic effect of substitutions introduced at haemagglutinin position 145 was fully independent of the amino acid context of the representative haemagglutinins. Antigenic change caused by substitutions introduced at haemagglutinin position 155 was variable and context-dependent. Our results suggest that epistatic interactions with contextual amino acids in the haemagglutinin can moderate the magnitude of antigenic change.

The Molecular Basis for Antigenic Drift of Human A/H2N2 Influenza Viruses

Influenza A/H2N2 viruses caused a pandemic in 1957 and continued to circulate in humans until 1968. The antigenic evolution of A/H2N2 viruses over time and the amino acid substitutions responsible for this antigenic evolution are not known. Here, the antigenic diversity of a representative set of human A/H2N2 viruses isolated between 1957 and 1968 was characterized. The antigenic change of influenza A/H2N2 viruses during the 12 years that this virus circulated was modest. Two amino acid substitutions, T128D and N139K, located in the head domain of the H2 hemagglutinin (HA) molecule, were identified as important determinants of antigenic change during A/H2N2 virus evolution. The rate of A/H2N2 virus antigenic evolution during the 12-year period after introduction in humans was half that of A/H3N2 viruses, despite similar rates of genetic change.IMPORTANCE While influenza A viruses of subtype H2N2 were at the origin of the Asian influenza pandemic, little is known about the antigenic changes that occurred during the twelve years of circulation in humans, the role of preexisting immunity, and the evolutionary rates of the virus. In this study, the antigenic map derived from hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers of cell-cultured virus isolates and ferret postinfection sera displayed a directional evolution of viruses away from earlier isolates. Furthermore, individual mutations in close proximity to the receptor-binding site of the HA molecule determined the antigenic reactivity, confirming that individual amino acid substitutions in A/H2N2 viruses can confer major antigenic changes. This study adds to our understanding of virus evolution with respect to antigenic variability, rates of virus evolution, and potential escape mutants of A/H2N2.

Antigenic evolution of H3N2 influenza A viruses in swine in the United States from 2012 to 2016

Background

Six amino acid positions (145, 155, 156, 158, 159, and 189, referred to as the antigenic motif; H3 numbering) in the globular head region of hemagglutinin (HA1 domain) play an important role in defining the antigenic phenotype of swine Clade IV (C‐IV) H3N2 IAV, containing an H3 from a late 1990s human‐to‐swine introduction. We hypothesized that antigenicity of a swine C‐IV H3 virus could be inferred based upon the antigenic motif if it matched a previously characterized antigen with the same motif. An increasing number of C‐IV H3 genes encoding antigenic motifs that had not been previously characterized were observed in the U.S. pig population between 2012 and 2016.

Objectives

A broad panel of contemporary H3 viruses with uncharacterized antigenic motifs was selected across multiple clades within C‐IV to assess the impact of HA1 genetic diversity on the antigenic phenotype.

Methods

Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays were performed with isolates selected based on antigenic motif, tested against a panel of swine antisera, and visualized by antigenic cartography.

Results

A previously uncharacterized motif with low but sustained circulation in the swine population demonstrated a distinct phenotype from those previously characterized. Antigenic variation increased for viruses with similar antigenic motifs, likely due to amino acid substitutions outside the motif.

Conclusions

Although antigenic motifs were largely associated with antigenic distances, substantial diversity among co‐circulating viruses poses a significant challenge for effective vaccine development. Continued surveillance and antigenic characterization of circulating strains is critical for improving vaccine efforts to control C‐IV H3 IAV in U.S. swine.

Influenza vaccination and the 'diversity paradox'

The antigenic evolution of influenza is widely assumed to occur by antigenic drift, in which strains incrementally acquire mutations in highly variable epitopes under strong immune selective pressure, such as those in the major influenza antigen haemagglutinin. However, this is not easy to reconcile with epidemiological observations, which show that each influenza season is dominated by a limited number of strains. Here, we discuss this paradox in light of recent influenza epidemics that have been characterised by low vaccine effectiveness and dominated by strains of limited antigenic and genetic diversity.

Dynamics of Evolution of Poliovirus Neutralizing Antigenic Sites and Other Capsid Functional Domains during a Large and Prolonged Outbreak

We followed the dynamics of capsid amino acid replacement among 403 Nigerian outbreak isolates of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) from 2005 through 2011. Four different functional domains were analyzed: (i) neutralizing antigenic (NAg) sites, (ii) residues binding the poliovirus receptor (PVR), (iii) VP1 residues 1 to 32, and (iv) the capsid structural core. Amino acid replacements mapped to 37 of 43 positions across all 4 NAg sites; the most variable and polymorphic residues were in NAg sites 2 and 3b. The most divergent of the 120 NAg variants had no more than 5 replacements in all NAg sites and were still neutralized at titers similar to those of Sabin 2. PVR-binding residues were less variable (25 different variants; 0 to 2 replacements per isolate; 30/44 invariant positions), with the most variable residues also forming parts of NAg sites 2 and 3a. Residues 1 to 32 of VP1 were highly variable (133 different variants; 0 to 6 replacements per isolate; 5/32 invariant positions), with residues 1 to 18 predicted to form a well-conserved amphipathic helix. Replacement events were dated by mapping them onto the branches of time-scaled phylogenies. Rates of amino acid replacement varied widely across positions and followed no simple substitution model. Replacements in the structural core were the most conservative and were fixed at an overall rate ∼20-fold lower than the rates for the NAg sites and VP1 1 to 32 and ∼5-fold lower than the rate for the PVR-binding sites. Only VP1 143-Ile, a non-NAg site surface residue and known attenuation site, appeared to be under strong negative selection.IMPORTANCE The high rate of poliovirus evolution is offset by strong selection against amino acid replacement at most positions of the capsid. Consequently, poliovirus vaccines developed from strains isolated decades ago have been used worldwide to bring wild polioviruses almost to extinction. The apparent antigenic stability of poliovirus obscures a dynamic of continuous change within the neutralizing antigenic (NAg) sites. During 7 years of a large outbreak in Nigeria, the circulating type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses generated 120 different NAg site variants via multiple independent pathways. Nonetheless, overall antigenic evolution was constrained, as no isolate had fixed more than 5 amino acid differences from the Sabin 2 NAg sites, and the most divergent isolates were efficiently neutralized by human immune sera. Evolution elsewhere in the capsid was also constrained. Amino acids binding the poliovirus receptor were strongly conserved, and extensive variation in the VP1 amino terminus still conserved a predicted amphipathic helix.

Parallel evolution of influenza across multiple spatiotemporal scales

Viral variants that arise in the global influenza population begin as de novo mutations in single infected hosts, but the evolutionary dynamics that transform within-host variation to global genetic diversity are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that influenza evolution within infected humans recapitulates many evolutionary dynamics observed at the global scale. We deep-sequence longitudinal samples from four immunocompromised patients with long-term H3N2 influenza infections. We find parallel evolution across three scales: within individual patients, in different patients in our study, and in the global influenza population. In hemagglutinin, a small set of mutations arises independently in multiple patients. These same mutations emerge repeatedly within single patients and compete with one another, providing a vivid clinical example of clonal interference. Many of these recurrent within-host mutations also reach a high global frequency in the decade following the patient infections. Our results demonstrate surprising concordance in evolutionary dynamics across multiple spatiotemporal scales.

Influenza infection in human host: challenges in making a better influenza vaccine

Influenza is a ubiquitous infection with a spectrum ranging from mild to severe. The mystery regarding such variability in the clinical spectrum has not been fully unravelled, although a role for the complex interplay among virus characteristics, host immune response and environmental factors has been suggested. Antivirals and current vaccines have a limited role in prophylaxis and treatment because they primarily target surface glycoproteins which undergo antigenic/genetic changes under host immune pressure. Targeting conserved internal proteins could lead the way to a universal vaccine which can be used against various types/subtypes. However, this is on the distant horizon, so in the meantime, developing improved vaccines should be given high priority. In this review, we discuss where the current influenza research stands in terms of vaccines, adjuvants, and how we can better predict the vaccine strains for upcoming influenza seasons by understanding complex phenomena which drive the continuous antigenic evolution.

Determination of antigenicity-altering patches on the major surface protein of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses

Human influenza viruses are rapidly evolving RNA viruses that cause short-term respiratory infections with substantial morbidity and mortality in annual epidemics. Uncovering the general principles of viral coevolution with human hosts is important for pathogen surveillance and vaccine design. Protein regions are an appropriate model for the interactions between two macromolecules, but the currently used epitope definition for the major antigen of influenza viruses, namely hemagglutinin, is very broad. Here, we combined genetic, evolutionary, antigenic, and structural information to determine the most relevant regions of the hemagglutinin of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses for interaction with human immunoglobulins. We estimated the antigenic weights of amino acid changes at individual sites from hemagglutination inhibition data using antigenic tree inference followed by spatial clustering of antigenicity-altering protein sites on the protein structure. This approach determined six relevant areas (patches) for antigenic variation that had a key role in the past antigenic evolution of the viruses. Previous transitions between successive predominating antigenic types of H3N2 viruses always included amino acid changes in either the first or second antigenic patch. Interestingly, there was only partial overlap between the antigenic patches and the patches under strong positive selection. Therefore, besides alterations of antigenicity, other interactions with the host may shape the evolution of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses.

The effects of a deleterious mutation load on patterns of influenza A/H3N2's antigenic evolution in humans

Recent phylogenetic analyses indicate that RNA virus populations carry a significant deleterious mutation load. This mutation load has the potential to shape patterns of adaptive evolution via genetic linkage to beneficial mutations. Here, we examine the effect of deleterious mutations on patterns of influenza A subtype H3N2's antigenic evolution in humans. By first analyzing simple models of influenza that incorporate a mutation load, we show that deleterious mutations, as expected, act to slow the virus's rate of antigenic evolution, while making it more punctuated in nature. These models further predict three distinct molecular pathways by which antigenic cluster transitions occur, and we find phylogenetic patterns consistent with each of these pathways in influenza virus sequences. Simulations of a more complex phylodynamic model further indicate that antigenic mutations act in concert with deleterious mutations to reproduce influenza's spindly hemagglutinin phylogeny, co-circulation of antigenic variants, and high annual attack rates.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07361.001

Each year, up to 15% of the world's population experience symptoms of an influenza infection, also commonly known as flu. The most common culprit is a strain of the virus called influenza type A subtype H3N2. One reason that so many people become infected each year is that this virus evolves rapidly. Within a few years, proteins on the surface of the virus known as antigens become less recognizable to the immune system of a person who has been previously infected. This means that the person can become ill with the virus again because their immune system cannot mount an effective response to the evolved virus strain.

Influenza virus strains evolve rapidly because their genetic material accumulates mutations quickly. Although some of these mutations are beneficial to the virus, other mutations are harmful and reduce the ability of the virus to spread. Sometimes beneficial mutations may occur alongside harmful ones, but it is not known how the harmful mutations affect the evolution of the virus.

Here, Koelle and Rasmussen used computer models of H3N2 influenza to examine the effect of harmful mutations on the evolution of this virus population. The models show that harmful mutations limit how quickly the antigens can evolve. Also, the presence of these harmful mutations effectively acts as a sieve: they allow only large changes in the antigens to establish in the virus population.

The models suggest that there are three routes by which large changes in the antigens on H3N2 viruses may occur. The first is by a single mutation that has a big effect on the antigens in viruses that only carry a few harmful mutations, but these large mutations would not happen very often. Another route may be through more common mutations that have only a small or moderate benefit, which would allow the virus to become more common in the population before it acquires a beneficial mutation with a much greater effect. The third possibility is that a large beneficial mutation may arise in viruses that have many harmful mutations. These harmful mutations may initially limit the ability of the virus to spread, but over time, some of these harmful mutations may then be lost.

Koelle and Rasmussen found that the computer models could recreate the patterns of virus evolution that have been observed in real strains of H3N2. Researchers use predictions of influenza evolution to help them decide which virus strains should be included in flu vaccines each year. Koelle and Rasmussen findings indicate that harmful mutations should be considered when making these predictions.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07361.002

Antigenic variation of the human influenza A (H3N2) virus during the 2014-2015 winter season

The human influenza A (H3N2) virus dominated the 2014-2015 winter season in many countries and caused massive morbidity and mortality because of its antigenic variation. So far, very little is known about the antigenic patterns of the recent H3N2 virus. By systematically mapping the antigenic relationships of H3N2 strains isolated since 2010, we discovered that two groups with obvious antigenic divergence, named SW13 (A/Switzerland/9715293/2013-like strains) and HK14 (A/Hong Kong/5738/2014-like strains), co-circulated during the 2014-2015 winter season. HK14 group co-circulated with SW13 in Europe and the United States during this season, while there were few strains of HK14 in mainland China, where SW13 has dominated since 2012. Furthermore, we found that substitutions near the receptor-binding site on hemagglutinin played an important role in the antigenic variation of both the groups. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the recent antigenic evolution of H3N2 virus and will aid in the selection of vaccine strains.

Contact between bird species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza strains

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) cause considerable economic losses to the poultry industry and also pose a threat to human life. The possibility that one of these strains will evolve to become transmissible between humans, sparking a major influenza pandemic, is a matter of great concern. Most studies so far have focused on assessing these odds from the perspective of the intrinsic mutability of AIV rather than the ecological constraints to invasion faced by the virus population. Here we present an alternative multihost model for the evolution of AIV in which the mode and tempo of mutation play a limited role, with the emergence of strains being determined instead principally by the prevailing profile of population-level immunity. We show that (i) many of the observed differences in influenza virus dynamics among species can be captured by our model by simply varying host lifespan and (ii) increased contact between species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of potentially more virulent strains that were hitherto suppressed in one of the species.

The inherent mutational tolerance and antigenic evolvability of influenza hemagglutinin

Influenza is notable for its evolutionary capacity to escape immunity targeting the viral hemagglutinin. We used deep mutational scanning to examine the extent to which a high inherent mutational tolerance contributes to this antigenic evolvability. We created mutant viruses that incorporate most of the ≈10(4) amino-acid mutations to hemagglutinin from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) influenza. After passaging these viruses in tissue culture to select for functional variants, we used deep sequencing to quantify mutation frequencies before and after selection. These data enable us to infer the preference for each amino acid at each site in hemagglutinin. These inferences are consistent with existing knowledge about the protein's structure and function, and can be used to create a model that describes hemagglutinin's evolution far better than existing phylogenetic models. We show that hemagglutinin has a high inherent tolerance for mutations at antigenic sites, suggesting that this is one factor contributing to influenza's antigenic evolution.