Drug-target identification in COVID-19 disease mechanisms using computational systems biology approaches

Introduction

The COVID-19 Disease Map project is a large-scale community effort uniting 277 scientists from 130 Institutions around the globe. We use high-quality, mechanistic content describing SARS-CoV-2-host interactions and develop interoperable bioinformatic pipelines for novel target identification and drug repurposing.

Methods

Extensive community work allowed an impressive step forward in building interfaces between Systems Biology tools and platforms. Our framework can link biomolecules from omics data analysis and computational modelling to dysregulated pathways in a cell-, tissue- or patient-specific manner. Drug repurposing using text mining and AI-assisted analysis identified potential drugs, chemicals and microRNAs that could target the identified key factors.

Results

Results revealed drugs already tested for anti-COVID-19 efficacy, providing a mechanistic context for their mode of action, and drugs already in clinical trials for treating other diseases, never tested against COVID-19.

Discussion

The key advance is that the proposed framework is versatile and expandable, offering a significant upgrade in the arsenal for virus-host interactions and other complex pathologies.

Framework for converting mechanistic network models to probabilistic models

There are two prominent paradigms for the modelling of networks: in the first, referred to as the mechanistic approach, one specifies a set of domain-specific mechanistic rules that are used to grow or evolve the network over time; in the second, referred to as the probabilistic approach, one describes a model that specifies the likelihood of observing a given network. Mechanistic models (models developed based on the mechanistic approach) are appealing because they capture scientific processes that are believed to be responsible for network generation; however, they do not easily lend themselves to the use of inferential techniques when compared with probabilistic models. We introduce a general framework for converting a mechanistic network model (MNM) to a probabilistic network model (PNM). The proposed framework makes it possible to identify the essential network properties and their joint probability distribution for some MNMs; doing so makes it possible to address questions such as whether two different mechanistic models generate networks with identical distributions of properties, or whether a network property, such as clustering, is over- or under-represented in the networks generated by the model of interest compared with a reference model. The proposed framework is intended to bridge some of the gap that currently exists between the formulation and representation of mechanistic and PNMs. We also highlight limitations of PNMs that need to be addressed in order to close this gap.

Functional Profiling of Soft Tissue Sarcoma Using Mechanistic Models

Soft tissue sarcoma is an umbrella term for a group of rare cancers that are difficult to treat. In addition to surgery, neoadjuvant chemotherapy has shown the potential to downstage tumors and prevent micrometastases. However, finding effective therapeutic targets remains a research challenge. Here, a previously developed computational approach called mechanistic models of signaling pathways has been employed to unravel the impact of observed changes at the gene expression level on the ultimate functional behavior of cells. In the context of such a mechanistic model, RNA-Seq counts sourced from the Recount3 resource, from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Sarcoma project, and non-diseased sarcomagenic tissues from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project were utilized to investigate signal transduction activity through signaling pathways. This approach provides a precise view of the relationship between sarcoma patient survival and the signaling landscape in tumors and their environment. Despite the distinct regulatory alterations observed in each sarcoma subtype, this study identified 13 signaling circuits, or elementary sub-pathways triggering specific cell functions, present across all subtypes, belonging to eight signaling pathways, which served as predictors for patient survival. Additionally, nine signaling circuits from five signaling pathways that highlighted the modifications tumor samples underwent in comparison to normal tissues were found. These results describe the protective role of the immune system, suggesting an anti-tumorigenic effect in the tumor microenvironment, in the process of tumor cell detachment and migration, or the dysregulation of ion homeostasis. Also, the analysis of signaling circuit intermediary proteins suggests multiple strategies for therapy.

From observational to actionable: rethinking omics in biologics production

As the era of omics continues to expand with increasing ubiquity and success in both academia and industry, omics-based experiments are becoming commonplace in industrial biotechnology, including efforts to develop novel solutions in bioprocess optimization and cell line development. Omic technologies provide particularly valuable 'observational' insights for discovery science, especially in academic research and industrial R&D; however, biomanufacturing requires a different paradigm to unlock 'actionable' insights from omics. Here, we argue the value of omic experiments in biotechnology can be maximized with deliberate selection of omic approaches and forethought about analysis techniques. We describe important considerations when designing and implementing omic-based experiments and discuss how systems biology analysis strategies can enhance efforts to obtain actionable insights in mammalian-based biologics production.

Statistical methods to identify mechanisms in studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics

While the reciprocal effects of ecological and evolutionary dynamics are increasingly recognized as an important driver for biodiversity, detection of such eco-evolutionary feedbacks, their underlying mechanisms, and their consequences remains challenging. Eco-evolutionary dynamics occur at different spatial and temporal scales and can leave signatures at different levels of organization (e.g., gene, protein, trait, community) that are often difficult to detect. Recent advances in statistical methods combined with alternative hypothesis testing provides a promising approach to identify potential eco-evolutionary drivers for observed data even in non-model systems that are not amenable to experimental manipulation. We discuss recent advances in eco-evolutionary modeling and statistical methods and discuss challenges for fitting mechanistic models to eco-evolutionary data.

From genotype to phenotype: computational approaches for inferring microbial traits relevant to the food industry

When selecting microbial strains for the production of fermented foods, various microbial phenotypes need to be taken into account to achieve target product characteristics, such as biosafety, flavor, texture, and health-promoting effects. Through continuous advances in sequencing technologies, microbial whole-genome sequences of increasing quality can now be obtained both cheaper and faster, which increases the relevance of genome-based characterization of microbial phenotypes. Prediction of microbial phenotypes from genome sequences makes it possible to quickly screen large strain collections in silico to identify candidates with desirable traits. Several microbial phenotypes relevant to the production of fermented foods can be predicted using knowledge-based approaches, leveraging our existing understanding of the genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying those phenotypes. In the absence of this knowledge, data-driven approaches can be applied to estimate genotype-phenotype relationships based on large experimental datasets. Here, we review computational methods that implement knowledge- and data-driven approaches for phenotype prediction, as well as methods that combine elements from both approaches. Furthermore, we provide examples of how these methods have been applied in industrial biotechnology, with special focus on the fermented food industry.

The establishment of plants following long-distance dispersal

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) beyond the range of a species is an important driver of ecological and evolutionary patterns, but insufficient attention has been given to postdispersal establishment. In this review, we summarize current knowledge of the post-LDD establishment phase in plant colonization, identify six key determinants of establishment success, develop a general quantitative framework for post-LDD establishment, and address the major challenges and opportunities in future research. These include improving detection and understanding of LDD using novel approaches, investigating mechanisms determining post-LDD establishment success using mechanistic modeling and inference, and comparison of establishment between past and present. By addressing current knowledge gaps, we aim to further our understanding of how LDD affects plant distributions, and the long-term consequences of LDD events.

A unified theory for the computational and mechanistic origins of grid cells

The discovery of entorhinal grid cells has generated considerable interest in how and why hexagonal firing fields might emerge in a generic manner from neural circuits, and what their computational significance might be. Here, we forge a link between the problem of path integration and the existence of hexagonal grids, by demonstrating that such grids arise in neural networks trained to path integrate under simple biologically plausible constraints. Moreover, we develop a unifying theory for why hexagonal grids are ubiquitous in path-integrator circuits. Such trained networks also yield powerful mechanistic hypotheses, exhibiting realistic levels of biological variability not captured by hand-designed models. We furthermore develop methods to analyze the connectome and activity maps of our networks to elucidate fundamental mechanisms underlying path integration. These methods provide a road map to go from connectomic and physiological measurements to conceptual understanding in a manner that could generalize to other settings.

Modulating Immune Response in Viral Infection for Quantitative Forecasts of Drug Efficacy

The antiretroviral drug, the total level of viral production, and the effectiveness of immune responses are the main topics of this review because they are all dynamically interrelated. Immunological and viral processes interact in extremely complex and non-linear ways. For reliable analysis and quantitative forecasts that may be used to follow the immune system and create a disease profile for each patient, mathematical models are helpful in characterizing these non-linear interactions. To increase our ability to treat patients and identify individual differences in disease development, immune response profiling might be useful. Identifying which patients are moving from mild to severe disease would be more beneficial using immune system parameters. Prioritize treatments based on their inability to control the immune response and prevent T cell exhaustion. To increase treatment efficacy and spur additional research in this field, this review intends to provide examples of the effects of modelling immune response in viral infections, as well as the impact of pharmaceuticals on immune response.

A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data

Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at a fine spatio-temporal scale is both novel and highly useful in this regard. Indeed, having geocoded data at the case level opens the door to analyze the spread of the disease on an individual basis, allowing the detection of specific outbreaks or, in general, of some interactions between cases that are not observable if aggregated data are used. Point processes are the natural tool to perform such analyses. We analyze a spatio-temporal point pattern of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months (February 2020 to January 2021) of the pandemic. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatio-temporal model for the first-order intensity function of the point process. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while similar studies have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations. The results suggest that there has only been a mild level of spatio-temporal interaction between cases in the study area, which to a large extent corresponds to people living in the same residential location. Extending our proposed model to larger areas could help us gain knowledge on the propagation of COVID-19 across cities with high mobility levels.

Mechanistic Models of Protein Aggregation Across Length-Scales and Time-Scales: From the Test Tube to Neurodegenerative Disease

Through advances in the past decades, the central role of aberrant protein aggregation has been established in many neurodegenerative diseases. Crucially, however, the molecular mechanisms that underlie aggregate proliferation in the brains of affected individuals are still only poorly understood. Under controlled in vitro conditions, significant progress has been made in elucidating the molecular mechanisms that take place during the assembly of purified protein molecules, through advances in both experimental methods and the theories used to analyse the resulting data. The determination of the aggregation mechanism for a variety of proteins revealed the importance of intermediate oligomeric species and of the interactions with promotors and inhibitors. Such mechanistic insights, if they can be achieved in a disease-relevant system, provide invaluable information to guide the design of potential cures to these devastating disorders. However, as experimental systems approach the situation present in real disease, their complexity increases substantially. Timescales increase from hours an aggregation reaction takes in vitro, to decades over which the process takes place in disease, and length-scales increase to the dimension of a human brain. Thus, molecular level mechanistic studies, like those that successfully determined mechanisms in vitro, have only been applied in a handful of living systems to date. If their application can be extended to further systems, including patient data, they promise powerful new insights. Here we present a review of the existing strategies to gain mechanistic insights into the molecular steps driving protein aggregation and discuss the obstacles and potential paths to achieving their application in disease. First, we review the experimental approaches and analysis techniques that are used to establish the aggregation mechanisms in vitro and the insights that have been gained from them. We then discuss how these approaches must be modified and adapted to be applicable in vivo and review the existing works that have successfully applied mechanistic analysis of protein aggregation in living systems. Finally, we present a broad mechanistic classification of in vivo systems and discuss what will be required to further our understanding of aggregate formation in living systems.

Scalable Approximate Bayesian Computation for Growing Network Models via Extrapolated and Sampled Summaries

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a simulation-based likelihood-free method applicable to both model selection and parameter estimation. ABC parameter estimation requires the ability to forward simulate datasets from a candidate model, but because the sizes of the observed and simulated datasets usually need to match, this can be computationally expensive. Additionally, since ABC inference is based on comparisons of summary statistics computed on the observed and simulated data, using computationally expensive summary statistics can lead to further losses in efficiency. ABC has recently been applied to the family of mechanistic network models, an area that has traditionally lacked tools for inference and model choice. Mechanistic models of network growth repeatedly add nodes to a network until it reaches the size of the observed network, which may be of the order of millions of nodes. With ABC, this process can quickly become computationally prohibitive due to the resource intensive nature of network simulations and evaluation of summary statistics. We propose two methodological developments to enable the use of ABC for inference in models for large growing networks. First, to save time needed for forward simulating model realizations, we propose a procedure to extrapolate (via both least squares and Gaussian processes) summary statistics from small to large networks. Second, to reduce computation time for evaluating summary statistics, we use sample-based rather than census-based summary statistics. We show that the ABC posterior obtained through this approach, which adds two additional layers of approximation to the standard ABC, is similar to a classic ABC posterior. Although we deal with growing network models, both extrapolated summaries and sampled summaries are expected to be relevant in other ABC settings where the data are generated incrementally.

Predicting genome organisation and function with mechanistic modelling

Fitting-free mechanistic models based on polymer simulations predict chromatin folding in 3D by focussing on the underlying biophysical mechanisms. This class of models has been increasingly used in conjunction with experiments to study the spatial organisation of eukaryotic chromosomes. Feedback from experiments to models leads to successive model refinement and has previously led to the discovery of new principles for genome organisation. Here, we review the basis of mechanistic polymer simulations, explain some of the more recent approaches and the contexts in which they have been useful to explain chromosome biology, and speculate on how they might be used in the future.

Building and Understanding the Minimal Self

Within the methodologically diverse interdisciplinary research on the minimal self, we identify two movements with seemingly disparate research agendas - cognitive science and cognitive (developmental) robotics. Cognitive science, on the one hand, devises rather abstract models which can predict and explain human experimental data related to the minimal self. Incorporating the established models of cognitive science and ideas from artificial intelligence, cognitive robotics, on the other hand, aims to build embodied learning machines capable of developing a self "from scratch" similar to human infants. The epistemic promise of the latter approach is that, at some point, robotic models can serve as a testbed for directly investigating the mechanisms that lead to the emergence of the minimal self. While both approaches can be productive for creating causal mechanistic models of the minimal self, we argue that building a minimal self is different from understanding the human minimal self. Thus, one should be cautious when drawing conclusions about the human minimal self based on robotic model implementations and vice versa. We further point out that incorporating constraints arising from different levels of analysis will be crucial for creating models that can predict, generate, and causally explain behavior in the real world.

A parsimonious mechanistic model of reproductive and vegetative growth in fruit trees predicts consequences of fruit thinning and branch pruning

Productivity of fruit tree crops depends on the interaction between plant physiology, environmental conditions and agricultural practices. We develop a mechanistic model of fruit tree crops that reliable simulates the dynamics of variables of interest for growers and consequences of agricultural practices while relying on a minimal number of inputs and parameters. The temporal dynamics of carbon content in the different organs (i.e., shoots-S, roots-R and fruits-F) are the result of photosynthesis by S, nutrient supply by R, respiration by S, R and F, competition among different organs, photoperiod and initial system conditions partially controlled by cultural practices. We calibrate model parameters and evaluate model predictions using unpublished data from a peach (Prunus persica) experimental orchard with trees subjected to different levels of branch pruning and fruit thinning. Fiinally, we evaluate the consequences of different combinations of pruning and thinning intensities within a multi-criteria analysis. The predictions are in good agreement with the experimental measurements and for the different conditions (pruning and thinning). Our simulations indicate that thinning and pruning practices actually used by growers provide the best compromise between total shoot production, which impacts next year's abundance of shoots and fruits, and current year's fruit production in terms of quantity (yield) and quality (average fruit size). This suggests that growers are not only interested in maximizing current year's yield but also in its quality and its durability. The present work provides for modelers a system of equations based on acknowledged principles of plant science easily modifiable for different purposes. For horticulturists, it gives insights on the potentialities of pruning and thinning. For ecologists, it provides a transparent quantitative framework that can be coupled with biotic and abiotic stressors.

Transferability of correlative and process-based species distribution models revisited: A response to Booth

Here, we respond to Booth's criticism of our paper, "Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model." Booth argues that our usage of the MaxEnt model was flawed and that the conclusions of our paper are by implication flawed. We respond by clarifying that the error Booth implies we made was not made in our analysis, and we repeat statements from the original manuscript which anticipated such criticisms. In addition, we illustrate that using BIOCLIM variables in a MaxEnt analysis as recommended by Booth does not change the conclusions of the original analysis. That is, high performance in the training data domain did not equate to reliable predictions in novel data domains, and the process model transferred into novel data domains better than the correlative model did. We conclude by discussing a hidden implication of our study, namely, that process-based SDMs negate the need for BIOCLIM-type variables and therefore reframe the variable selection problem in species distribution modeling.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease

This primer describes the statistical uncertainty in mechanistic models and provides R code to quantify it. We begin with an overview of mechanistic models for infectious disease, and then describe the sources of statistical uncertainty in the context of a case study on SARS-CoV-2. We describe the statistical uncertainty as belonging to three categories: data uncertainty, stochastic uncertainty, and structural uncertainty. We demonstrate how to account for each of these via statistical uncertainty measures and sensitivity analyses broadly, as well as in a specific case study on estimating the basic reproductive number, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}${R}_0$\end{document}, for SARS-CoV-2.

Scientific Practice in Modeling Diseases: Stances from Cancer Research and Neuropsychiatry

In the last few decades, philosophy of science has increasingly focused on multilevel models and causal mechanistic explanations to account for complex biological phenomena. On the one hand, biological and biomedical works make extensive use of mechanistic concepts; on the other hand, philosophers have analyzed an increasing range of examples taken from different domains in the life sciences to test-support or criticize-the adequacy of mechanistic accounts. The article highlights some challenges in the elaboration of mechanistic explanations with a focus on cancer research and neuropsychiatry. It jointly considers fields, which are usually dealt with separately, and keeps a close eye on scientific practice. The article has a twofold aim. First, it shows that identification of the explananda is a key issue when looking at dynamic processes and their implications in medical research and clinical practice. Second, it discusses the relevance of organizational accounts of mechanisms, and questions whether thorough self-sustaining mechanistic explanations can actually be provided when addressing cancer and psychiatric diseases. While acknowledging the merits of the wide ongoing debate on mechanistic models, the article challenges the mechanistic approach to explanation by discussing, in particular, explanatory and conceptual terms in the light of stances from medical cases.

Limits and Constraints on Mechanisms of Cell-Cycle Regulation Imposed by Cell Size-Homeostasis Measurements

High-throughput imaging has led to an explosion of observations about cell-size homeostasis across the kingdoms of life. Among bacteria, "adder" behavior-in which a constant size increment appears to be added during each cell cycle-is ubiquitous, while various eukaryotes show other size-homeostasis behaviors. Since interactions between cell-cycle progression and growth ultimately determine such behaviors, we developed a general model of cell-cycle regulation. Our analyses reveal a range of scenarios that are plausible but fail to regulate cell size, indicating that mechanisms of cell-cycle regulation are stringently limited by size-control requirements, and possibly why certain cell-cycle features are strongly conserved. Cell-cycle features can play unintuitive roles in altering size-homeostasis behaviors: noisy regulator production can enhance adder behavior, while Whi5-like inhibitor dilutors respond sensitively to perturbations to G2/M control and noisy G1/S checkpoints. Our model thus provides holistic insights into the mechanistic implications of size-homeostasis experimental measurements.

BayCANN: Streamlining Bayesian Calibration With Artificial Neural Network Metamodeling

Purpose: Bayesian calibration is generally superior to standard direct-search algorithms in that it estimates the full joint posterior distribution of the calibrated parameters. However, there are many barriers to using Bayesian calibration in health decision sciences stemming from the need to program complex models in probabilistic programming languages and the associated computational burden of applying Bayesian calibration. In this paper, we propose to use artificial neural networks (ANN) as one practical solution to these challenges. Methods: Bayesian Calibration using Artificial Neural Networks (BayCANN) involves (1) training an ANN metamodel on a sample of model inputs and outputs, and (2) then calibrating the trained ANN metamodel instead of the full model in a probabilistic programming language to obtain the posterior joint distribution of the calibrated parameters. We illustrate BayCANN using a colorectal cancer natural history model. We conduct a confirmatory simulation analysis by first obtaining parameter estimates from the literature and then using them to generate adenoma prevalence and cancer incidence targets. We compare the performance of BayCANN in recovering these "true" parameter values against performing a Bayesian calibration directly on the simulation model using an incremental mixture importance sampling (IMIS) algorithm. Results: We were able to apply BayCANN using only a dataset of the model inputs and outputs and minor modification of BayCANN's code. In this example, BayCANN was slightly more accurate in recovering the true posterior parameter estimates compared to IMIS. Obtaining the dataset of samples, and running BayCANN took 15 min compared to the IMIS which took 80 min. In applications involving computationally more expensive simulations (e.g., microsimulations), BayCANN may offer higher relative speed gains. Conclusions: BayCANN only uses a dataset of model inputs and outputs to obtain the calibrated joint parameter distributions. Thus, it can be adapted to models of various levels of complexity with minor or no change to its structure. In addition, BayCANN's efficiency can be especially useful in computationally expensive models. To facilitate BayCANN's wider adoption, we provide BayCANN's open-source implementation in R and Stan.

Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model

Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool in many branches of ecology and evolution. Evaluations of the transferability of species distribution models-their ability to predict the distribution of species in independent data domains-are, however, rare. In this study, we contrast the transferability of a process-based and a correlative species distribution model. Our case study uses 664 Australian eucalypt and acacia species. We estimate models for these species using data from their native Australia and then assess whether these models can predict the adventive range of these species. We find that the correlative model-MaxEnt-has a superior ability to describe the data in the training data domain (Australia) and that the process-based model-TTR-SDM-has a superior ability to predict the distribution of the study species outside of Australia. The implication of this analysis, that process-based models may be more appropriate than correlative models when making projections outside of the domain of the training data, needs to be tested in other case studies.

Training deep neural density estimators to identify mechanistic models of neural dynamics

Mechanistic modeling in neuroscience aims to explain observed phenomena in terms of underlying causes. However, determining which model parameters agree with complex and stochastic neural data presents a significant challenge. We address this challenge with a machine learning tool which uses deep neural density estimators-trained using model simulations-to carry out Bayesian inference and retrieve the full space of parameters compatible with raw data or selected data features. Our method is scalable in parameters and data features and can rapidly analyze new data after initial training. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of our approach on receptive fields, ion channels, and Hodgkin-Huxley models. We also characterize the space of circuit configurations giving rise to rhythmic activity in the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion, and use these results to derive hypotheses for underlying compensation mechanisms. Our approach will help close the gap between data-driven and theory-driven models of neural dynamics.

Reactivation of latent infections with migration shapes population-level disease dynamics

Annual migration is common across animal taxa and can dramatically shape the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious disease. Although migration can decrease infection prevalence in some contexts, these energetically costly long-distance movements can also have immunosuppressive effects that may interact with transmission processes in complex ways. Here, we develop a mechanistic model for the reactivation of latent infections driven by physiological changes or energetic costs associated with migration (i.e. 'migratory relapse') and its effects on disease dynamics. We determine conditions under which migratory relapse can amplify or reduce infection prevalence across pathogen and host traits (e.g. infectious periods, virulence, overwinter survival, timing of relapse) and transmission phenologies. We show that relapse at either the start or end of migration can dramatically increase prevalence across the annual cycle and may be crucial for maintaining pathogens with low transmissibility and short infectious periods in migratory populations. Conversely, relapse at the start of migration can reduce the prevalence of highly virulent pathogens by amplifying culling of infected hosts during costly migration, especially for highly transmissible pathogens and those transmitted during migration or the breeding season. Our study provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of relapsing infections in migratory hosts, with implications for zoonotic surveillance and understanding how infection patterns will respond to shifts in migratory propensity associated with environmental change. Further, our work suggests incorporating within-host processes into population-level models of pathogen transmission may be crucial for reconciling the range of migration-infection relationships observed across migratory species.

Mechanistic Models of Signaling Pathways Reveal the Drug Action Mechanisms behind Gender-Specific Gene Expression for Cancer Treatments

Despite the existence of differences in gene expression across numerous genes between males and females having been known for a long time, these have been mostly ignored in many studies, including drug development and its therapeutic use. In fact, the consequences of such differences over the disease mechanisms or the drug action mechanisms are completely unknown. Here we applied mechanistic mathematical models of signaling activity to reveal the ultimate functional consequences that gender-specific gene expression activities have over cell functionality and fate. Moreover, we also used the mechanistic modeling framework to simulate the drug interventions and unravel how drug action mechanisms are affected by gender-specific differential gene expression. Interestingly, some cancers have many biological processes significantly affected by these gender-specific differences (e.g., bladder or head and neck carcinomas), while others (e.g., glioblastoma or rectum cancer) are almost insensitive to them. We found that many of these gender-specific differences affect cancer-specific pathways or in physiological signaling pathways, also involved in cancer origin and development. Finally, mechanistic models have the potential to be used for finding alternative therapeutic interventions on the pathways targeted by the drug, which lead to similar results compensating the downstream consequences of gender-specific differences in gene expression.

Modelling meaning composition from formalism to mechanism

Human thought and language have extraordinary expressive power because meaningful parts can be assembled into more complex semantic structures. This partly underlies our ability to compose meanings into endlessly novel configurations, and sets us apart from other species and current computing devices. Crucially, human behaviour, including language use and linguistic data, indicates that composing parts into complex structures does not threaten the existence of constituent parts as independent units in the system: parts and wholes exist simultaneously yet independently from one another in the mind and brain. This independence is evident in human behaviour, but it seems at odds with what is known about the brain's exquisite sensitivity to statistical patterns: everyday language use is productive and expressive precisely because it can go beyond statistical regularities. Formal theories in philosophy and linguistics explain this fact by assuming that language and thought are compositional: systems of representations that separate a variable (or role) from its values (fillers), such that the meaning of a complex expression is a function of the values assigned to the variables. The debate on whether and how compositional systems could be implemented in minds, brains and machines remains vigorous. However, it has not yet resulted in mechanistic models of semantic composition: how, then, are the constituents of thoughts and sentences put and held together? We review and discuss current efforts at understanding this problem, and we chart possible routes for future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards mechanistic models of meaning composition'.

Guiding the Refinement of Biochemical Knowledgebases with Ensembles of Metabolic Networks and Machine Learning

Mechanistic models explicitly represent hypothesized biological knowledge. As such, they offer more generalizability than data-driven models. However, identifying model curation efforts that improve performance for mechanistic models is nontrivial. Here, we develop a solution to this problem for genome-scale metabolic models. We generate an ensemble of models, each equally consistent with experimental data, then perform simulations with them. We apply machine learning to the simulation output to identify model structure variation that maximally influences simulations. These variants are high-priority candidates for curation through removal, addition, or reannotation in the model. We apply this approach, automated metabolic model ensemble-driven elimination of uncertainty with statistical learning (AMMEDEUS), to 29 bacterial species to improve gene essentiality predictions. We explore targets for individual species and compile pan-species targets to improve the database used during model construction. AMMEDEUS is an automated and performance-driven recommendation system that complements intuition during curation of biochemical knowledgebases.

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Prioritizing curation of complex mechanistic models is challenging

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Development of curation guidance approach for genome-scale metabolic models

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Ensembles and machine learning are used to prioritize possible curation efforts

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Application to metabolic models for 29 bacterial species and a biochemical database

A reaction-diffusion predator-prey model with pursuit, evasion, and nonlocal sensing

In this paper, we propose and analyze a reaction-diffusion model for predator-prey interaction, featuring both prey and predator taxis mediated by nonlocal sensing. Both predator and prey densities are governed by parabolic equations. The prey and predator detect each other indirectly by means of odor or visibility fields, modeled by elliptic equations. We provide uniform estimates in Lebesgue spaces which lead to boundedness and the global well-posedness for the system. Numerical experiments are presented and discussed, allowing us to showcase the dynamical properties of the solutions.

Modelling water fluxes in plants: from tissues to biosphere

Contents Summary 1207 I. Introduction 1207 II. A brief history of modelling plant water fluxes 1208 III. Main components of plant water transport models 1208 IV. Stand-scale water fluxes and coupling to climate and soil 1213 V. Water fluxes in terrestrial biosphere models and feedbacks to community dynamics 1215 VI. Outstanding challenges in modelling water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum 1217 Acknowledgements 1218 References 1218 SUMMARY: Models of plant water fluxes have evolved from studies focussed on understanding the detailed structure and functioning of specific components of the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) continuum to architectures often incorporated inside eco-hydrological and terrestrial biosphere (TB) model schemes. We review here the historical evolution of this field, examine the basic structure of a simplified individual-based model of plant water transport, highlight selected applications for specific ecological problems and conclude by examining outstanding issues requiring further improvements in modelling vegetation water fluxes. We particularly emphasise issues related to the scaling from tissue-level traits to individual-based predictions of water transport, the representation of nonlinear and hysteretic behaviour in soil-xylem hydraulics and the need to incorporate knowledge of hydraulics within broader frameworks of plant ecological strategies and their consequences for predicting community demography and dynamics.

Quantitative Mechanistic Modeling in Support of Pharmacological Therapeutics Development in Immuno-Oncology

Following the approval, in recent years, of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, there has been an explosion in the development of immuno-modulating pharmacological modalities for the treatment of various cancers. From the discovery phase to late-stage clinical testing and regulatory approval, challenges in the development of immuno-oncology (IO) drugs are multi-fold and complex. In the preclinical setting, the multiplicity of potential drug targets around immune checkpoints, the growing list of immuno-modulatory molecular and cellular forces in the tumor microenvironment-with additional opportunities for IO drug targets, the emergence of exploratory biomarkers, and the unleashed potential of modality combinations all have necessitated the development of quantitative, mechanistically-oriented systems models which incorporate key biology and patho-physiology aspects of immuno-oncology and the pharmacokinetics of IO-modulating agents. In the clinical setting, the qualification of surrogate biomarkers predictive of IO treatment efficacy or outcome, and the corresponding optimization of IO trial design have become major challenges. This mini-review focuses on the evolution and state-of-the-art of quantitative systems models describing the tumor vs. immune system interplay, and their merging with quantitative pharmacology models of IO-modulating agents, as companion tools to support the addressing of these challenges.

The mechanistic basis for higher-order interactions and non-additivity in competitive communities

Motivated by both analytical tractability and empirical practicality, community ecologists have long treated the species pair as the fundamental unit of study. This notwithstanding, the challenge of understanding more complex systems has repeatedly generated interest in the role of so-called higher-order interactions (HOIs) imposed by species beyond the focal pair. Here we argue that HOIs - defined as non-additive effects of density on per capita growth - are best interpreted as emergent properties of phenomenological models (e.g. Lotka-Volterra competition) rather than as distinct 'ecological processes' in their own right. Using simulations of consumer-resource models, we explore the mechanisms and system properties that give rise to HOIs in observational data. We demonstrate that HOIs emerge under all but the most restrictive of assumptions, and that incorporating non-additivity into phenomenological models improves the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of model predictions. Notably, we also observe that HOIs derive primarily from mechanisms and system properties that apply equally to single-species or pairwise systems as they do to more diverse communities. Consequently, there exists a strong mandate for further recognition of non-additive effects in both theoretical and empirical research.

Human and computational models of atopic dermatitis: A review and perspectives by an expert panel of the International Eczema Council

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a prevalent disease worldwide and is associated with systemic comorbidities representing a significant burden on patients, their families, and society. Therapeutic options for AD remain limited, in part because of a lack of well-characterized animal models. There has been increasing interest in developing experimental approaches to study the pathogenesis of human AD in vivo, in vitro, and in silico to better define pathophysiologic mechanisms and identify novel therapeutic targets and biomarkers that predict therapeutic response. This review critically appraises a range of models, including genetic mutations relevant to AD, experimental challenge of human skin in vivo, tissue culture models, integration of “omics” data sets, and development of predictive computational models. Although no one individual model recapitulates the complex AD pathophysiology, our review highlights insights gained into key elements of cutaneous biology, molecular pathways, and therapeutic target identification through each approach. Recent developments in computational analysis, including application of machine learning and a systems approach to data integration and predictive modeling, highlight the applicability of these methods to AD subclassification (endotyping), therapy development, and precision medicine. Such predictive modeling will highlight knowledge gaps, further inform refinement of biological models, and support new experimental and systems approaches to AD. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2019;143:36–45.)

Adaptive protocols based on predictions from a mechanistic model of the effect of IL7 on CD4 counts

In human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients, antiretroviral therapy suppresses the viral replication, which is followed in most patients by a restoration of CD4+ T cells pool. For patients who fail to do so, repeated injections of exogenous interleukin 7 (IL7) are experimented. The IL7 is a cytokine that is involved in the T cell homeostasis and the INSPIRE study has shown that injections of IL7 induced a proliferation of CD4+ T cells. Phase I/II INSPIRE 2 and 3 studies have evaluated a protocol in which a first cycle of three IL7 injections is followed by a new cycle at each visit when the patient has less than 550 CD4 cells/μL. Restoration of the CD4 concentration has been demonstrated, but the long-term best adaptive protocol is yet to be determined. A mechanistic model of the evolution of CD4 after IL7 injections has been developed, which is based on a system of ordinary differential equations and includes random effects. Based on the estimation of this model, we use a Bayesian approach to forecast the dynamics of CD4 in new patients. We propose four prediction-based adaptive protocols of injections to minimize the time spent under 500 CD4 cells/μL for each patient, without increasing the number of injections received too much. We show that our protocols significantly reduce the time spent under 500 CD4 over a period of two years, without increasing the number of injections. These protocols have the potential to increase the efficiency of this therapy.

Accounting for disturbance history in models: using remote sensing to constrain carbon and nitrogen pool spin-up

Disturbances such as wildfire, insect outbreaks, and forest clearing, play an important role in regulating carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic fluxes in terrestrial watersheds. Evaluating how watersheds respond to disturbance requires understanding mechanisms that interact over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Simulation modeling is a powerful tool for bridging these scales; however, model projections are limited by uncertainties in the initial state of plant carbon and nitrogen stores. Watershed models typically use one of two methods to initialize these stores: spin-up to steady state or remote sensing with allometric relationships. Spin-up involves running a model until vegetation reaches equilibrium based on climate. This approach assumes that vegetation across the watershed has reached maturity and is of uniform age, which fails to account for landscape heterogeneity and non-steady-state conditions. By contrast, remote sensing, can provide data for initializing such conditions. However, methods for assimilating remote sensing into model simulations can also be problematic. They often rely on empirical allometric relationships between a single vegetation variable and modeled carbon and nitrogen stores. Because allometric relationships are species- and region-specific, they do not account for the effects of local resource limitation, which can influence carbon allocation (to leaves, stems, roots, etc.). To address this problem, we developed a new initialization approach using the catchment-scale ecohydrologic model RHESSys. The new approach merges the mechanistic stability of spin-up with the spatial fidelity of remote sensing. It uses remote sensing to define spatially explicit targets for one or several vegetation state variables, such as leaf area index, across a watershed. The model then simulates the growth of carbon and nitrogen stores until the defined targets are met for all locations. We evaluated this approach in a mixed pine-dominated watershed in central Idaho, and a chaparral-dominated watershed in southern California. In the pine-dominated watershed, model estimates of carbon, nitrogen, and water fluxes varied among methods, while the target-driven method increased correspondence between observed and modeled streamflow. In the chaparral watershed, where vegetation was more homogeneously aged, there were no major differences among methods. Thus, in heterogeneous, disturbance-prone watersheds, the target-driven approach shows potential for improving biogeochemical projections.

Evaluation of mechanistic and statistical methods in forecasting influenza-like illness

A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed and are in use; however, the effects of various data issues and design choices (statistical versus mechanistic methods, for example) on the accuracy of these approaches have not been thoroughly assessed. Here, we compare the accuracy of three forecasting approaches-a mechanistic method, a weighted average of two statistical methods and a super-ensemble of eight statistical and mechanistic models-in predicting seven outbreak characteristics of seasonal influenza during the 2016-2017 season at the national and 10 regional levels in the USA. For each of these approaches, we report the effects of real time under- and over-reporting in surveillance systems, use of non-surveillance proxies of influenza activity and manual override of model predictions on forecast quality. Our results suggest that a meta-ensemble of statistical and mechanistic methods has better overall accuracy than the individual methods. Supplementing surveillance data with proxy estimates generally improves the quality of forecasts and transient reporting errors degrade the performance of all three approaches considerably. The improvement in quality from ad hoc and post-forecast changes suggests that domain experts continue to possess information that is not being sufficiently captured by current forecasting approaches.

Trophic interaction modifications: an empirical and theoretical framework

Consumer-resource interactions are often influenced by other species in the community. At present these 'trophic interaction modifications' are rarely included in ecological models despite demonstrations that they can drive system dynamics. Here, we advocate and extend an approach that has the potential to unite and represent this key group of non-trophic interactions by emphasising the change to trophic interactions induced by modifying species. We highlight the opportunities this approach brings in comparison to frameworks that coerce trophic interaction modifications into pairwise relationships. To establish common frames of reference and explore the value of the approach, we set out a range of metrics for the 'strength' of an interaction modification which incorporate increasing levels of contextual information about the system. Through demonstrations in three-species model systems, we establish that these metrics capture complimentary aspects of interaction modifications. We show how the approach can be used in a range of empirical contexts; we identify as specific gaps in current understanding experiments with multiple levels of modifier species and the distributions of modifications in networks. The trophic interaction modification approach we propose can motivate and unite empirical and theoretical studies of system dynamics, providing a route to confront ecological complexity.

Niche partitioning due to adaptive foraging reverses effects of nestedness and connectance on pollination network stability

Much research debates whether properties of ecological networks such as nestedness and connectance stabilise biological communities while ignoring key behavioural aspects of organisms within these networks. Here, we computationally assess how adaptive foraging (AF) behaviour interacts with network architecture to determine the stability of plant-pollinator networks. We find that AF reverses negative effects of nestedness and positive effects of connectance on the stability of the networks by partitioning the niches among species within guilds. This behaviour enables generalist pollinators to preferentially forage on the most specialised of their plant partners which increases the pollination services to specialist plants and cedes the resources of generalist plants to specialist pollinators. We corroborate these behavioural preferences with intensive field observations of bee foraging. Our results show that incorporating key organismal behaviours with well-known biological mechanisms such as consumer-resource interactions into the analysis of ecological networks may greatly improve our understanding of complex ecosystems.

Simplified mechanistic models of gene regulation for analysis and design

Simplified mechanistic models of gene regulation are fundamental to systems biology and essential for synthetic biology. However, conventional simplified models typically have outputs that are not directly measurable and are based on assumptions that do not often hold under experimental conditions. To resolve these issues, we propose a ‘model reduction’ methodology and simplified kinetic models of total mRNA and total protein concentration, which link measurements, models and biochemical mechanisms. The proposed approach is based on assumptions that hold generally and include typical cases in systems and synthetic biology where conventional models do not hold. We use novel assumptions regarding the ‘speed of reactions’, which are required for the methodology to be consistent with experimental data. We also apply the methodology to propose simplified models of gene regulation in the presence of multiple protein binding sites, providing both biological insights and an illustration of the generality of the methodology. Lastly, we show that modelling total protein concentration allows us to address key questions on gene regulation, such as efficiency, burden, competition and modularity.

Minimum area requirements for an at-risk butterfly based on movement and demography

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species' traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7-1.5 ha, in accordance with trait-based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture-mark-recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape-scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation.

Predictive Modeling of Drug Treatment in the Area of Personalized Medicine

Despite a growing body of knowledge on the mechanisms underlying the onset and progression of cancer, treatment success rates in oncology are at best modest. Current approaches use statistical methods that fail to embrace the inherent and expansive complexity of the tumor/patient/drug interaction. Computational modeling, in particular mechanistic modeling, has the power to resolve this complexity. Using fundamental knowledge on the interactions occurring between the components of a complex biological system, large-scale in silico models with predictive capabilities can be generated. Here, we describe how mechanistic virtual patient models, based on systematic molecular characterization of patients and their diseases, have the potential to shift the theranostic paradigm for oncology, both in the fields of personalized medicine and targeted drug development. In particular, we highlight the mechanistic modeling platform ModCell™ for individualized prediction of patient responses to treatment, emphasizing modeling techniques and avenues of application.

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.

How do animal territories form and change? Lessons from 20 years of mechanistic modelling

Territory formation is ubiquitous throughout the animal kingdom. At the individual level, various behaviours attempt to exclude conspecifics from regions of space. At the population level, animals often segregate into distinct territorial areas. Consequently, it should be possible to derive territorial patterns from the underlying behavioural processes of animal movements and interactions. Such derivations are an important element in the development of an ecological theory that can predict the effects of changing conditions on territorial populations. Here, we review the approaches developed over the past 20 years or so, which go under the umbrella of ‘mechanistic territorial models’. We detail the two main strands to this research: partial differential equations and individual-based approaches, showing what each has offered to our understanding of territoriality and how they can be unified. We explain how they are related to other approaches to studying territories and home ranges, and point towards possible future directions.

Predicting local and non-local effects of resources on animal space use using a mechanistic step selection model

Predicting space use patterns of animals from their interactions with the environment is fundamental for understanding the effect of habitat changes on ecosystem functioning. Recent attempts to address this problem have sought to unify resource selection analysis, where animal space use is derived from available habitat quality, and mechanistic movement models, where detailed movement processes of an animal are used to predict its emergent utilization distribution. Such models bias the animal's movement towards patches that are easily available and resource-rich, and the result is a predicted probability density at a given position being a function of the habitat quality at that position. However, in reality, the probability that an animal will use a patch of the terrain tends to be a function of the resource quality in both that patch and the surrounding habitat.We propose a mechanistic model where this non-local effect of resources naturally emerges from the local movement processes, by taking into account the relative utility of both the habitat where the animal currently resides and that of where it is moving. We give statistical techniques to parametrize the model from location data and demonstrate application of these techniques to GPS location data of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Newfoundland.Steady-state animal probability distributions arising from the model have complex patterns that cannot be expressed simply as a function of the local quality of the habitat. In particular, large areas of good habitat are used more intensively than smaller patches of equal quality habitat, whereas isolated patches are used less frequently. Both of these are real aspects of animal space use missing from previous mechanistic resource selection models.Whilst we focus on habitats in this study, our modelling framework can be readily used with any environmental covariates and therefore represents a unification of mechanistic modelling and step selection approaches to understanding animal space use.

Spike timing dependent plasticity: a consequence of more fundamental learning rules

Spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) is a phenomenon in which the precise timing of spikes affects the sign and magnitude of changes in synaptic strength. STDP is often interpreted as the comprehensive learning rule for a synapse - the "first law" of synaptic plasticity. This interpretation is made explicit in theoretical models in which the total plasticity produced by complex spike patterns results from a superposition of the effects of all spike pairs. Although such models are appealing for their simplicity, they can fail dramatically. For example, the measured single-spike learning rule between hippocampal CA3 and CA1 pyramidal neurons does not predict the existence of long-term potentiation one of the best-known forms of synaptic plasticity. Layers of complexity have been added to the basic STDP model to repair predictive failures, but they have been outstripped by experimental data. We propose an alternate first law: neural activity triggers changes in key biochemical intermediates, which act as a more direct trigger of plasticity mechanisms. One particularly successful model uses intracellular calcium as the intermediate and can account for many observed properties of bidirectional plasticity. In this formulation, STDP is not itself the basis for explaining other forms of plasticity, but is instead a consequence of changes in the biochemical intermediate, calcium. Eventually a mechanism-based framework for learning rules should include other messengers, discrete change at individual synapses, spread of plasticity among neighboring synapses, and priming of hidden processes that change a synapse's susceptibility to future change. Mechanism-based models provide a rich framework for the computational representation of synaptic plasticity.