Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England

The National Health Service (NHS) Pathways triage system collates data on enquiries to 111 and 999 services in England. Since the 18th of March 2020, these data have been made publically available for potential COVID-19 symptoms self-reported by members of the public. Trends in such reports over time are likely to reflect behaviour of the ongoing epidemic within the wider community, potentially capturing valuable information across a broader severity profile of cases than hospital admission data. We present a fully reproducible analysis of temporal trends in NHS Pathways reports until 14th May 2020, nationally and regionally, and demonstrate that rates of growth/decline and effective reproduction number estimated from these data may be useful in monitoring transmission. This is a particularly pressing issue as lockdown restrictions begin to be lifted and evidence of disease resurgence must be constantly reassessed. We further assess the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and a publicly available NHS dataset of COVID-19-associated deaths in England, finding that enquiries to 111/999 were strongly associated with daily deaths reported 16 days later. Our results highlight the potential of NHS Pathways as the basis of an early warning system. However, this dataset relies on self-reported symptoms, which are at risk of being severely biased. Further detailed work is therefore necessary to investigate potential behavioural issues which might otherwise explain our conclusions.

Cathepsin L plays a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans and humanized mice and is a promising target for new drug development

To discover new drugs to combat COVID-19, an understanding of the molecular basis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is urgently needed. Here, for the first time, we report the crucial role of cathepsin L (CTSL) in patients with COVID-19. The circulating level of CTSL was elevated after SARS-CoV-2 infection and was positively correlated with disease course and severity. Correspondingly, SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus infection increased CTSL expression in human cells in vitro and human ACE2 transgenic mice in vivo, while CTSL overexpression, in turn, enhanced pseudovirus infection in human cells. CTSL functionally cleaved the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and enhanced virus entry, as evidenced by CTSL overexpression and knockdown in vitro and application of CTSL inhibitor drugs in vivo. Furthermore, amantadine, a licensed anti-influenza drug, significantly inhibited CTSL activity after SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus infection and prevented infection both in vitro and in vivo. Therefore, CTSL is a promising target for new anti-COVID-19 drug development.

Intestinal helminth co-infection is an unrecognised risk factor for increased pneumococcal carriage density and invasive disease

Infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of death in children and burden of disease is greatest where helminth infections are also common. We investigated the impact of intestinal helminth co-infection on pneumococcal carriage; a risk factor for invasive disease. We used a mouse co-infection model and clinical data to assess the impact of co-infection on carriage density. Co-infection in mice was associated with increased pneumococcal carriage density and dissemination into lungs. Helminth-infected children also exhibited increased carriage density as compared to uninfected children. Anthelmintic treatment may be a cost-effective method of reducing pneumococcal disease burden in lower-income countries.

Community delivery of malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy: protocol of a quasi-experimental evaluation through multistage cluster sampling household surveys in four sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), millions of pregnant women are exposed to malaria infection. The cornerstone of the WHO strategy to prevent malaria in pregnancy in moderate to high-transmission areas is the administration of intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at each scheduled antenatal care (ANC) visit. However, overall coverage remains low. 'Transforming IPT for Optimal Pregnancy' (TIPTOP) project aims at delivering IPTp at the community level (C-IPTp) to complement ANC provision with the goal of increasing IPTp coverage and improving maternal and infant's health. This protocol describes the approach to measure the effect of this strategy through household surveys (HHS) in four SSA countries: Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique and Nigeria.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A quasi-experimental evaluation has been designed. Delivery of C-IPTp will start first in one area per country, and later it will be extended to two more areas per country. HHS will be carried out before C-IPTp implementation in all study sites, at midterm in initial implementation areas, and after the implementation in all project areas. A multistage cluster sampling method will be followed for the selection of participants. Women of reproductive age who had a pregnancy that ended in the 6 or 12 months prior to the interview, depending on the survey, will be invited to participate by responding to a questionnaire. The main indicators will be coverage of three or more doses of IPTp and attendance to at least four ANC visits. A difference-in-difference analysis will be performed to evaluate the effectiveness of C-IPTp.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The project has been reviewed by the ethics committees of WHO, Hospital Clinic of Barcelona and all project country boards. Project results will be disseminated to in-country stakeholders and at regional and international meetings. TIPTOP project aims to develop and disseminate global recommendations for C-IPTp delivery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03600844; Pre-results.

Successful treatment of positive-sense RNA virus coinfection with autoimmune hepatitis using double filtration plasmapheresis

Double filtration plasmapheresis (DFPP) is an apheretic technique that selectively removes high molecular weight substances using a plasma component filter. DFPP has been used to treat positive-sense RNA virus infections, mainly chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, because of its ability to directly eliminate viral particles from blood plasma from 2008 to about 2015, before direct-acting antiviral agents was marketed. This effect has been termed virus removal and eradication by DFPP. HCV is a positive-sense RNA virus similar to West Nile virus, dengue virus and the SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 is classified same viral species. These viruses are all classified in Family Flaviviridae which are family of single-stranded plus-stranded RNA viruses. Viral particles are 40-60 nm in diameter, enveloped and spherical in shape. We present a rare case of HCV removal where an RNA virus infection that copresented with virus-associated autoimmune hepatitis was eliminated using DFPP. Our results indicate that DFPP may facilitate prompt viraemia reduction and may have novel treatment applications for SARS-CoV-2, that is, use of therapeutic plasma exchange for fulminant COVID-19.

Balancing risks: Qualitative study of attitudes, motivations and intentions about attending for mammography during the COVID-19 pandemic

AIMS

To explore attitudes, motivations and intentions about attending for mammography among women who cancelled or postponed breast cancer screening, which had remained open in Denmark during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A telephone interview study was conducted at the end of April 2020. A qualitative, phenomenological approach was chosen to identify themes and concepts and a semi-structured interview guide was developed. The analysis was structured according to constructs from the theory of planned behaviour, including attitudes to breast cancer screening, norms and motivations to comply with breast cancer screening, perceived control and anticipated regret.

RESULTS

Interviews were carried out with 33 women aged 50-69 (mean 62) years. The women felt that screening was of secondary importance during the height of the pandemic and they felt low perceived control over transportation to the screening clinic and over the screening situation itself, where social distancing was impossible. They perceived messages from the authorities as conflicting regarding the request for social distancing and a lack of recommendations about using face masks at the screening clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

Women who postponed or cancelled breast cancer screening during the COVID-19 pandemic felt that public recommendations appeared contradictory. Uncertainty about the 'new norm(al)' of COVID-19 made them stay at home, although the screening clinics remained open. The findings point to the importance of addressing perceived inconsistency between recommendations from the World Health Organization and the national management of these recommendations, and to secure univocal information from the authorities about the recommended use of healthcare services in a time of crisis.

Peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis caused by Enterococcus avium

Peritonitis remains a common and serious complication of peritoneal dialysis. Peritonitis caused by gram-positive organisms includes coagulase-negative staphylococci, Streptococcus spp and Enterococcus spp. We present a rare case of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis, where persisting abdominal pain and worsening laboratory findings despite antibiotic therapy led to the identification of Enterococcus avium, requiring Tenckoff catheter removal and temporary transfer to haemodialysis. The available literature reports only few cases where peritonitis is caused by this agent, underlining the need to consider atypical microbial agents when heterogeneous clinical course is presented.

Human herpes virus-6 (HHV-6) pneumonitis and meningitis with viraemia in an immunocompetent adult patient

Human herpes virus-6 (HHV-6) infection is a common infection in the paediatric population and is increasingly reported in immunosuppressed adult patients. It has been reported as the causative agent of disease in few case reports in immunocompetent adults. We report herein an unusual case of HHV-6-associated viraemia, pneumonitis and meningitis in a patient who presented with dyspnoea, hypoxia, dry cough and headache. She was treated for atypical pneumonia with no improvement. Meningitis was suspected as headache kept worsening. HHV-6B was detected by PCR in the cerebrospinal fluid, and subsequently, in the bronchoalveolar lavage and serum samples. Studies were negative for the most common primary and secondary immunodeficiency syndromes, and serology could not be performed to differentiate virus reactivation from a primary infection. The patient was successfully treated with ganciclovir and had no residual sequelae.

SARS-CoV-2 infection triggering recurrence of Kawasaki disease in a 10-year-old child

SARS-CoV-2 infection has recently been related to a spectrum of hyper-inflammatory states in children. There is a striking similarity between these hyper-inflammatory states and Kawasaki disease (KD). We present an interesting case of KD recurrence in a 10-year-old child, who had previously developed KD at 4 years of age. His symptoms included fever, maculopapular rash and altered sensorium. Investigations showed noticeably elevated inflammatory markers, and an echocardiography revealed dilated coronary arteries. SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies were positive. The child responded dramatically to intravenous immunoglobulin and intravenous methylprednisolone. It is possible that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggered the recurrence of KD in this child who might have been genetically predisposed to KD.

Outbreaks of Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases Are Associated With Changes in Forest Cover and Oil Palm Expansion at Global Scale

Deforestation is a major cause of biodiversity loss with a negative impact on human health. This study explores at global scale whether the loss and gain of forest cover and the rise of oil palm plantations can promote outbreaks of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. Taking into account the human population growth, we find that the increases in outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases from 1990 to 2016 are linked with deforestation, mostly in tropical countries, and with reforestation, mostly in temperate countries. We also find that outbreaks of vector-borne diseases are associated with the increase in areas of palm oil plantations. Our study gives new support for a link between global deforestation and outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases as well as evidences that reforestation and plantations may also contribute to epidemics of infectious diseases. The results are discussed in light of the importance of forests for biodiversity, livelihoods and human health and the need to urgently build an international governance framework to ensure the preservation of forests and the ecosystem services they provide, including the regulation of diseases. We develop recommendations to scientists, public health officers and policymakers who should reconcile the need to preserve biodiversity while taking into account the health risks posed by lack or mismanagement of forests.

Forecasting influenza-like illness trends in Cameroon using Google Search Data

Although acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, surveillance of diseases such as influenza is mostly neglected. Evaluating the usefulness of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance systems and developing approaches for forecasting future trends is important for pandemic preparedness. We applied and compared a range of robust statistical and machine learning models including random forest (RF) regression, support vector machines (SVM) regression, multivariable linear regression and ARIMA models to forecast 2012 to 2018 trends of reported ILI cases in Cameroon, using Google searches for influenza symptoms, treatments, natural or traditional remedies as well as, infectious diseases with a high burden (i.e., AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis). The R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) were statistically similar across most of the methods, however, RF and SVM had the highest average R2 (0.78 and 0.88, respectively) for predicting ILI per 100,000 persons at the country level. This study demonstrates the need for developing contextualized approaches when using digital data for disease surveillance and the usefulness of search data for monitoring ILI in sub-Saharan African countries.

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

Remembering and Enhancing the Impact of Women in Infectious Diseases

Following the establishment of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA), women played a minor role as IDSA leaders, awards recipients, and presenters at the national meeting. Since the formation of the IDSA Women's Committee in 1992, women have played an increasing role in all of these domains of the Society. Two subsequent IDSA task forces have emphasized the importance of women, and other unrepresented minorities, to the success of the core missions of the Society. Ongoing efforts to maintain the presence of women and their unique talents, experiences, and understandings in the Society will sustain the strengths of IDSA.

Cultural Competence and Humility in Infectious Diseases Clinical Practice and Research

Infectious diseases as a specialty is tilted toward social justice, and practitioners are frequently on the front lines of the battle against health inequity in practices that are diverse and sometimes cross international borders. Whether caring for patients living with the human immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, or Ebola, infectious diseases practitioners often interact with those at the margins of societies (eg, racial/ethnic/sexual/gender minorities), who disproportionately bear the brunt of these conditions. Therefore, cultural barriers between providers and patients are often salient in the infectious diseases context. In this article, we discuss cultural competence broadly, to include not only the knowledge and the skills needed at both the organizational and the individual levels to provide culturally appropriate care, but also to include "cultural humility"-a lifelong process of learning, self-reflection, and self-critique. To enhance the quality and the impact of our practices, we must prioritize cultural competence and humility and be mindful of the role of culture in the patient-provider-system interactions, in our larger healthcare systems, and in our research agendas and workforce development.

Predictors of clinical deterioration in patients with suspected COVID-19 managed in a 'virtual hospital' setting: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Identify predictors of clinical deterioration in a virtual hospital (VH) setting for COVID-19.

DESIGN

Real-world prospective observational study.

SETTING

VH remote assessment service in West Hertfordshire NHS Trust, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with suspected COVID-19 illness enrolled directly from the community (postaccident and emergency (A&E) or medical intake assessment) or postinpatient admission.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Death or (re-)admission to inpatient hospital care during VH follow-up and for 2 weeks post-VH discharge.

RESULTS

900 patients with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 (455 referred from A&E or medical intake and 445 postinpatient) were included in the analysis. 76 (8.4%) of these experienced clinical deterioration (15 deaths in admitted patients, 3 deaths in patients not admitted and 58 additional inpatient admissions). Predictors of clinical deterioration were increase in age (OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.06) per year of age), history of cancer (OR 2.87 (95% CI 1.41 to 5.82)), history of mental health problems (OR 1.76 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.04)), severely impaired renal function (OR for eGFR <30=9.09 (95% CI 2.01 to 41.09)) and having a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result (OR 2.0 (95% CI 1.11 to 3.60)).

CONCLUSIONS

These predictors may help direct intensity of monitoring for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who are being remotely monitored by primary or secondary care services. Further research is needed to confirm our findings and identify the reasons for increased risk of clinical deterioration associated with cancer and mental health problems.

Pathways to Leadership: Reflections of Recent Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) Leaders During Conception and Launch of the Inclusion, Diversity, Access, and Equity Movement Within the IDSA

Opportunities for leadership in the specialty of infectious diseases (ID) have markedly increased over the last decade, including in newly recognized areas. Commensurate with the expansion of opportunities in ID, pathways to leadership positions within the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) are expanding as the Society seeks to advance the field for IDSA members. Acknowledging both the importance of diverse leaders to organizational success and shortfalls in diverse representation within IDSA leadership led to concentrated efforts to enhance transparency and opportunities for members to participate broadly in the work of IDSA. Herein, IDSA leaders reflect on their paths to IDSA leadership, hoping to help guide members seeking to partner with the Society. Features identified as important to individual success include mentorship, networking, participation in ID and IDSA volunteer experiences, passion for ID, and working with IDSA staff to advance the programs and initiatives of IDSA on behalf of members.

Hypercoagulability in COVID-19: A review of the potential mechanisms underlying clotting disorders

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 has emerged as a new viral pandemic, causing Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) leading to a wide array of symptoms ranging from asymptomatic to severe respiratory failure. However, coagulation disorders have been found in some patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, leading to either a clotting disorder or hemorrhage. Several mechanisms attempt to explain the mechanism behind the pro-coagulant state seen with COVID-19 patients, including different receptor binding, cytokine storm, and direct viral endothelial damage. SARS-CoV-2 has also been recently found to bind to CLEC4M receptor, a receptor that participates in the clearance of von Willebrand Factor and Factor VIII. The competitive binding of SARS-CoV-2 to CLEC4M could lead to decreased clearance, and therefore a promotion of a pro-coagulative state; however, an experimental study needs to be done to prove such an association.

Combining initial chest CT with clinical variables in differentiating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia from influenza pneumonia

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread in more than 100 countries and regions around the world, raising grave global concerns. COVID-19 has a similar pattern of infection, clinical symptoms, and chest imaging findings to influenza pneumonia. In this retrospective study, we analysed clinical and chest CT data of 24 patients with COVID-19 and 79 patients with influenza pneumonia. Univariate analysis demonstrated that the temperature, systolic pressure, cough and sputum production could distinguish COVID-19 from influenza pneumonia. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for the clinical features are 0.783 and 0.747, and the AUC value is 0.819. Univariate analysis demonstrates that nine CT features, central-peripheral distribution, superior-inferior distribution, anterior-posterior distribution, patches of GGO, GGO nodule, vascular enlargement in GGO, air bronchogram, bronchiectasis within focus, interlobular septal thickening, could distinguish COVID-19 from influenza pneumonia. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for the CT features are 0.750 and 0.962, and the AUC value is 0.927. Finally, a multivariate logistic regression model combined the variables from the clinical variables and CT features models was made. The combined model contained six features: systolic blood pressure, sputum production, vascular enlargement in the GGO, GGO nodule, central-peripheral distribution and bronchiectasis within focus. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for the combined features are 0.87 and 0.96, and the AUC value is 0.961. In conclusion, some CT features or clinical variables can differentiate COVID-19 from influenza pneumonia. Moreover, CT features combined with clinical variables had higher diagnostic performance.

Profiling of Potential Antibacterial Compounds of Lactic Acid Bacteria against Extremely Drug Resistant (XDR) Acinetobacter baumannii

A total of 20 of isolates of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) were selected and screened for antagonistic activity against clinical strains of 30 clinical isolates of extremely drug-resistant (XDR) Acinetobacter baumannii using the well diffusion assay method. Results showed that 50% of the highly LAB strains possessed inhibitory activity against (up to 66%) of the XDR A. baumannii strains tested. The supernatant of the twenty LAB strains was subjected to gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) revealed that the common compound found in the active isolates against XDR A. baumannii was 3-Isobutyl-2,3,6,7,8,8a-hexahydropyrrolo[1,2-a]pyrazine-1,4-dione, a known potential diketopiperazine group. The molecular docking study against potential antibacterial targets with selected ligands was performed to predict the binding mode of interactions, which is responsible for antibacterial activity. The docking analysis of the potent compounds supported the potential antibacterial activity exhibiting high inhibition constant and binding affinity in silico.

Comparison of Plasmodium ovale curtisi and Plasmodium ovale wallikeri infections by a meta-analysis approach

Malaria caused by Plasmodium ovale species is considered a neglected tropical disease with limited information about its characteristics. It also remains unclear whether the two distinct species P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri exhibit differences in their prevalence, geographic distribution, clinical characteristics, or laboratory parameters. Therefore, this study was conducted to clarify these differences to support global malaria control and eradication programs. Studies reporting the occurrence of P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri were explored in databases. Differences in proportion, clinical data, and laboratory parameters between the two species were estimated using a random-effects model and expressed as pooled odds ratios (ORs), mean difference (MD), or standardized MD depending on the types of extracted data. The difference in geographical distribution was visualized by mapping the origin of the two species. A total of 1453 P. ovale cases extracted from 35 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The p-value in the meta-analyses provided evidence favoring a real difference between P. ovale curtisi malaria cases (809/1453, 55.7%) and P. ovale wallikeri malaria cases (644/1453, 44.3%) (p: 0.01, OR 1.61, 95% CI 0.71-3.63, I2: 77%). Subgroup analyses established evidence favoring a real difference between P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri malaria cases among the imported cases (p: 0.02, 1135 cases). The p value in the meta-analyses provided evidence favoring a real difference in the mean latency period between P. ovale curtisi (289 cases) and P. ovale wallikeri malaria (266 cases) (p: 0.03, MD: 27.59, 95% CI 1.99-53.2, I2: 94%), total leukocyte count (p < 0.0001, MD: 840, 95% CI 610-1070, I2: 0%, two studies) and platelet count (p < 0.0001, MD: 44,750, 95% CI 2900-60,500, I2: 32%, three studies). Four continents were found to have reports of P. ovale spp., among which Africa had the highest number of reports for both P. ovale spp. in its 37 countries, with a global proportion of 94.46%, and an almost equal distribution of both P. ovale spp., where P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri reflected 53.09% and 46.90% of the continent's proportion, respectively. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to demonstrate the differences in the characteristics of the two distinct P. ovale species. Malaria caused by P. ovale curtisi was found in higher proportions among imported cases and had longer latency periods, higher platelet counts, and higher total leukocyte counts than malaria caused by P. ovale wallikeri. Further studies with a larger sample size are required to confirm the differences or similarities between these two species to promote malaria control and effective eradication programs.

Mechanisms and targets of Fcγ-receptor mediated immunity to malaria sporozoites

A highly protective vaccine will greatly facilitate achieving and sustaining malaria elimination. Understanding mechanisms of antibody-mediated immunity is crucial for developing vaccines with high efficacy. Here, we identify key roles in humoral immunity for Fcγ-receptor (FcγR) interactions and opsonic phagocytosis of sporozoites. We identify a major role for neutrophils in mediating phagocytic clearance of sporozoites in peripheral blood, whereas monocytes contribute a minor role. Antibodies also promote natural killer cell activity. Mechanistically, antibody interactions with FcγRIII appear essential, with FcγRIIa also required for maximum activity. All regions of the circumsporozoite protein are targets of functional antibodies against sporozoites, and N-terminal antibodies have more activity in some assays. Functional antibodies are slowly acquired following natural exposure to malaria, being present among some exposed adults, but uncommon among children. Our findings reveal targets and mechanisms of immunity that could be exploited in vaccine design to maximize efficacy.