Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Leisure Time Physical Activity and SARS-CoV-2 Infection among ELSA-Brasil Participants

The regular practice of physical activity (PA) can reduce the chance of aggravation of the disease and lower rates of hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19, but few studies have analyzed the association of PA with the risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2. The aim of the study was to analyze the association between PA and self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection. A longitudinal study was conducted with data from 4476 ELSA-Brasil participants who had their PA analyzed twice, once in 2016-2018 and again in 2020. PA was identified using the IPAQ at both follow-up moments and categorized into four groups: (a) remained physically inactive (reference); (b) remained physically active; (c) became physically active in the second moment; and (d) became physically inactive in the second moment. The variables of age, sex, obesity, hypertension, diabetes and specific protective practices against COVID-19 were tested as possible confounders. Data were analyzed by logistic regression. A 95% confidence interval (CI) was used. Remaining physically active was associated with a 43% reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection only among those who used specific practices to protect against COVID-19, OR = 0.57 and CI = 0.32-0.99. The results suggested that regular practice of PA can reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially among those who have used specific practices to protect against COVID-19 during the pandemic.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021

Importance

Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID).

Objective

To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022.

Exposures

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age.

Results

A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Working from home, work-time control and mental health: Results from the Brazilian longitudinal study of adult health (ELSA-Brasil)

This cross-sectional study investigated the association between work-time control (WTC), independently and in combination with hours worked (HW), and four mental health outcomes among 2,318 participants of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) who worked from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. WTC was assessed by the WTC Scale, and mental health outcomes included depression, anxiety, stress (measured by the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale, DASS-21), and self-rated mental health. Logistic regression models were used to determine odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among women, long HW were associated with stress (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.11–2.20) and poor self-rated mental health (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.13–2.38), whereas they were protective against anxiety among men (OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.37–0.93). In both sexes, weak WTC was associated with all mental health outcomes. Among women, the long HW/weak WTC combination was associated with all mental health outcomes, and short HW/weak WTC was associated with anxiety and stress. Among men, long HW/strong WTC was protective against depression and stress, while short HW/strong WTC and short HW/weak WTC was associated with all mental health outcomes. In both sexes, weak WTC, independently and in combination with HW, was associated with all mental health outcomes. WTC can improve working conditions, protect against mental distress, and fosterwork-life balance for those who work from home.

Epicardial Fat Volume Is Associated with Endothelial Dysfunction, but not with Coronary Calcification: From the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

BACKGROUND

The increase in epicardial fat volume (EFV) is related to coronary artery disease (CAD), independent of visceral or subcutaneous fat. The mechanism underlying this association is unclear. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and endothelial dysfunction are related to coronary events, but whether EFV is related to these markers needs further clarification.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between automatically measured EFV, cardiovascular risk factors, CAC, and endothelial function.

METHODS

In 470 participants from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) with measures of EFV, CAC score and endothelial function, we performed multivariable models to evaluate the relation between cardiovascular risk factors and EFV (response variable), and between EFV (explanatory variable) and endothelial function variables or CAC score. Two-sided p <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Mean age was 55 ± 8 years, 52.3% of patients were men. Mean EFV was 111mL (IQ 86-144), and the prevalence of CAC score=0 was 55%. In the multivariable analyses, increased EFV was related to female sex, older age, waist circumference, and triglycerides (p<0.001 for all). Higher EFV was associated with worse endothelial function: as compared with the first quartile, the odds ratio for basal pulse amplitude were (q2=1.22, 95%CI 1.07-1.40; q3=1.50, 95%CI 1.30-1.74; q4=1.50, 95%CI 1.28-1.79) and for peripheral arterial tonometry ratio were (q2=0.87, 95%CI 0.81-0.95; q3=0.86, 95%CI 0.79-0.94; q4=0.80, 95%CI 0.73-0.89), but not with CAC score>0.

CONCLUSION

Higher EFV was associated with impaired endothelial function, but not with CAC. The results suggest that EFV is related to the development of CAD through a pathway different from the CAC pathway, possibly through aggravation of endothelial dysfunction and microvascular disease.

Serum uric acid is a predictive biomarker of incident metabolic syndrome at the Brazilian longitudinal study of adult Health (ELSA - Brasil)

AIM

To investigate whether serum uric acid (SUA) levels and hyperuricemia can be predictive biomarkers of incident metabolic syndrome(MS) among different body mass index(BMI) categories, and to investigate SUA cutoffs that best discriminate individuals with incident MS.

METHODS

We analyzed 7,789 participants without MS at baseline of ELSA-Brasil study. Logistic regression models were performed to evaluate associations between incident MS and SUA levels/hyperuricemia, expressed by odds ratios(ORs) and confidence intervals(95 % CI).

RESULTS

We found 1,646 incident MS cases after a median follow-up of 3.8[3.5-4.1] years. Incident MS was present among 8.3 % (n = 290) of participants with normal weight, 28.3 % (n = 850) with overweight, 39.8 % (n = 506) with obesity. Among incident MS participants of total sample, 33.0 % had hyperuricemia [SUA > 6.0 mg/dL (356.9 μmol/L)]. After all adjustments, SUA was independently prognostic of incident MS: for each 1 mg/dL increase in SUA the odds of incident MS were 45 % higher (OR1.45[CI95 %1.34-1.55 p <.01]). Associations were found for those presenting normal weight, overweight and obesity (OR1.43[CI95 %1.31-1.57 p <.01; OR1.22[CI95 %1.13-1.32 p <.01]; and OR1.16[CI95 %1.04-1.29 p <.05]) respectively. Hyperuricemia was independently associated with incident MS (OR1.88[CI95 %1.49-0.2.36 p <.01]). The SUA cut point level maximizing sensitivity and specificity in the discrimination of incident MS was 5.0 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

SUA level is an independent predictive biomarker of incident MS at all BMI categories.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone and Thyroid Hormones and Incidence of Diabetes: Prospective Results of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-BRASIL)

Background: There are conflicting data regarding the association of thyroid function with incident diabetes. We prospectively investigated thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), and its conversion ratio (fT3:fT4) with the risk of developing diabetes in euthyroid subjects and those with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Our hypothesis is that this relationship is a U-shaped curve since both subclinical thyroid diseases may be associated with diabetes. Methods: ELSA-Brasil is a highly admixed cohort study of 35-74 years old at baseline (2008-2010). Levels of TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio were evaluated at baseline and incident diabetes was estimated over an 8.2-year follow-up (2017-2019). Diabetes was identified based on medical diagnosis, prescriptions, and laboratory tests. The risk of diabetes was evaluated according to quintiles of TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio using Poisson regression with robust variance presented as relative risk (RR) with confidence interval [CI] of 95% after multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors (reference third quintile), and as continuous variables. Results: We included 7948 participants (mean age, 50.2 [standard deviation 8.6] years; 54.4% female): 7177 euthyroid, 726 with subclinical hypothyroidism, and 45 with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Incidence of diabetes was 14.8%. No association was found for TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio quintiles with incident diabetes. Using continuous variables, the increase of 1-unit (1-U) of fT4 decreased the risk of diabetes (RR 0.94 [CI 0.91-0.99]), while the increase of 1-U of the fT3:fT4 ratio increased the diabetes risk (RR 1.37 [CI 1.15-1.63]). The increase of 1-U of fT3 was associated with an increased risk of diabetes, but without significance after multivariable adjustment. In body mass index-stratified analysis, people with overweight or obesity presented a modest significantly higher risk of diabetes in the lowest quintile of fT4 (RR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07]) and an inverse association with incident diabetes in the first quintile of fT3:fT4 ratio (RR, 0.95 [CI 0.93-0.98]). The analyses using continuous variables presented similar findings. Conclusion: These findings suggest that fT4 and fT3 levels and the conversion rate might be additional risk factors associated with incident diabetes, especially in the presence of overweight or obesity. However, they need to be confirmed in future studies. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02320461).

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

Importance:

While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.

Objective:

To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery

Design:

We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results:

Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.

Conclusions and relevance:

The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.

Sex differences in the association between alcohol intake and cognitive decline over four years in a middle-aged cohort: the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health

The association between alcohol intake and cognitive decline has been widely studied. Sex differences and cognitive domains affected by alcohol intake patterns make this topic overly complex.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of alcohol intake on cognition of middle-aged participants from ELSA-Brasil by sex during four-years of follow-up.

METHODS

7,595 participants (55% women) aged between 50 to 75 years at baseline were assessed. Semantic and phonemic fluency, memory, and executive functions were assessed at baseline (2008-2010) and repeated during Visit 2. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the association between cognition and current abstainers, never drinkers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, and heavy drinkers.

RESULTS

Heavy alcohol intake accentuated the decline in executive functions for men (β = -0.01; p < 0.05), and in semantic fluency (β = -0.02; p < 0.05), and memory (β = -0.02; p < 0.05) for women. Never drinker's men also showed an accentuated decline in semantic fluency (β = -0.02; p < 0.01). Moderate alcohol intake slowed cognitive decline in phonemic fluency for men (β = 0.02, p < 0.01) and women (β = 0.01, p < 0.01) and in executive functions (β = 0.01, p < 0.05) for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Having more than 14 drinks per week can impact executive functions in men and memory in women. In addition, alcohol consumption of 7 to 14 drinks per week may have a protective effect on gender-specific cognitive functions. These findings should be considered in public health policies and guidelines on alcohol and cognitive aging.

The inflammatory food index and its association with weight gain and incidence of diabetes: Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diet plays a central role in regulating inflammation and is closely related to the development of chronic diseases. We aimed to develop an inflammatory food index (IFI) based on the relationship of food items with biomarkers of inflammation and to evaluate its association with weight gain and type 2 diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A sample of 9909 participants of the ELSA-Brasil study was analyzed. Standardized measurements including interviews, anthropometry, and laboratory exams were performed at baseline and follow-up. A baseline food frequency questionnaire was used to derive IFI scores using reduced rank regression (RRR). The inflammatory pattern derived included 11 pro-inflammatory food groups: processed meat, red meat, pork, sugary soda, and hot dogs. The anti-inflammatory pattern included seven food groups: fruits, nuts, and wine. The IFI score, adjusted through logistic regression for multiple sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical covariates, including body mass index, predicted the development of a large weight gain (tertile 3 vs. 1: OR = 1.30; 95%CI 1.08-1.55). The score, adjusted for sociodemographic factors through proportional hazard models, predicted incident diabetes (tertile 3 vs. 1: HR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.04-1.52).

CONCLUSION

These findings support the hypothesis that subclinical inflammation caused by a pro-inflammatory food pattern, characterized mainly by greater ultra-processed food consumption, underlies weight gain and the development of type 2 diabetes. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.com as NCT02320461.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045

AIMS

To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045.

METHODS

A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence.

RESULTS

The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045.

CONCLUSIONS

Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.

Incidence of thyroid diseases: Results from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate incidence of subclinical and overt hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism.

METHODS

The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) is a prospective cohort study of 15,105 civil servants, examined at baseline and over a 4-year follow-up. This analysis included 9,705 participants with normal thyroid function at baseline, follow-up information about thyroid function and with no report of using drugs that may interfere in the thyroid function. Thyroid function was defined by TSH/FT4 levels or routine use of thyroid hormones/anti-thyroid medications. Annual and cumulative (over 4-year) incidence rates were presented as percentages (95% Confidence Intervals).

RESULTS

The incidence of all overt and subclinical thyroid disease was 6.7% (1.73%/year): 0.19% for overt hyperthyroidism (0.048%/year), 0.54% for subclinical hyperthyroidism (0.14%/year), 1.98% for overt hypothyroidism (0.51%/year), and 3.99% for subclinical hypothyroidism (1.03%/year). The incidence of all thyroid diseases was higher in women, when compared to men, with a low women:men ratio (1.36). For Blacks the highest incidence was for overt hyperthyroidism, while for Whites, the highest incidence was for overt hypothyroidism. However, the highest incidence of overt hyperthyroidism was detected in Asian descendants. The presence of antithyroperoxidase antibodies at baseline was associated with higher incidence of overt thyroid diseases.

CONCLUSION

These results showed a high incidence of hypothyroidism, which is compatible with a country with a more-than-adequate iodine intake. The low women:men ratio of the incidence of thyroid dysfunction highlights the importance of the diagnosis of thyroid diseases among men in Brazil.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age as a mortality predictor

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most commonly used exam for the evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. Here we propose that the age predicted by artificial intelligence (AI) from the raw ECG (ECG-age) can be a measure of cardiovascular health. A deep neural network is trained to predict a patient's age from the 12-lead ECG in the CODE study cohort (n = 1,558,415 patients). On a 15% hold-out split, patients with ECG-age more than 8 years greater than the chronological age have a higher mortality rate (hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, p < 0.001), whereas those with ECG-age more than 8 years smaller, have a lower mortality rate (HR 0.78, p < 0.001). Similar results are obtained in the external cohorts ELSA-Brasil (n = 14,236) and SaMi-Trop (n = 1,631). Moreover, even for apparent normal ECGs, the predicted ECG-age gap from the chronological age remains a statistically significant risk predictor. These results show that the AI-enabled analysis of the ECG can add prognostic information.

Control of Glucose, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol among Adults with Diabetes: The Brazilian National Health Survey

ABC (glucose, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol) goals are basic standards of diabetes care. We aimed to assess ABC control and related factors in a representative sample of Brazilian adults with diabetes. We analyzed 465 adults with known diabetes in the Brazilian National Health Survey. The targets used were <7% for glycated hemoglobin (A1C); <140/90 mmHg for blood pressure; and <100 mg/dL for LDL-C, with stricter targets for the latter two for those with high cardiovascular (CVD) risk. Individual goals were attained by 46% (95% CI, 40.3–51.6%) for A1C, 51.4% (95% CI, 45.7–57.1%) for blood pressure, and 40% (95% CI, 34.5–45.6%) for LDL-C. The achievement of all three goals was attained by 12.5% (95% CI, 8.9–16.2%). Those with high CVD risk attained blood pressure and LDL-C goals less frequently. A1C control improved with increasing age and worsened with greater duration of diabetes. Achievement of at least two ABC goals decreased with increasing BMI and greater duration of diabetes. In sum, about half of those with known diabetes achieved each ABC goal and only a small fraction achieved all three goals. Better access and adherence to treatment and strategies to personalize goals according to specific priorities are of the essence.

Reference values for the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio and its association with cardiometabolic diseases in a mixed adult population: The ELSA-Brasil study

BACKGROUND

Among several lipid ratios available, the triglyceride/HDL-cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) may detect individuals at risk of cardiometabolic diseases. However, its reference values for different ethnicities are not well established.

OBJECTIVE

To define sex- and ethnicity-specific reference values for TG/HDL-C ratio in a large sample of healthy multiethnic adults and test its association with cardiometabolic conditions.

METHODS

An apparently healthy sample (n = 2,472), aged 35-74, free of major cardiovascular risk factors, was used to generate the reference values for the TG/HDL-C. Exclusion criteria were diabetes, elevated blood pressure, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, severe hypertriglyceridemia, and smoking history. Cut-offs based on the reference values were tested in the whole ELSA Brasil study (n = 13,245), stratified by sex and ethnicity, to identify cardiometabolic conditions.

RESULTS

TG/HDL-C ratio was higher in men than women, and did not change significantly with age, regardless of sex and ethnicity. Also, black individuals showed lower levels of TG/HDL-C as compared to other ethnic groups. ROC curve showed that the cut-off based on the 75th percentile displayed better sensitivities and specificities for men and women, regardless of ethnicity. Also, the sex- and ethnicity-specific cut-offs based on the 75th percentile were significantly associated with all tested cardiometabolic conditions (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome, and insulin resistance). Also, we observed that the use of a single sex-specific cut-off (men: 2.6; women: 1.7) could be used for the different ethnicities with good reliability.

CONCLUSION

The defined TG/HDL-C cut-offs (men: 2.6; women: 1.7) are reliable and showed good clinical applicability to detect cardiometabolic conditions in a multiethnic population.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

METHODS

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

RESULTS

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Background

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

Methods

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

Results

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

Conclusions

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.