Tehran environmental and neurodevelopmental disorders (TEND) cohort study: Phase I, feasibility assessment

PURPOSE

To advance knowledge about childhood neurodevelopmental disorders and study their environmental determinants, we conducted a study in Tehran, Iran to assess the feasibility of prospective birth cohort study.

METHODS

We evaluated participation of pregnant women, feasibility of sampling biological material, and health care services availability in Tehran in four steps: (1) first trimester of pregnancy; (2) third trimester of pregnancy; (3) at delivery; and (4) two to three months after delivery. We collected related data through questionnaires, also various biological samples were obtained from mothers (blood, urine, milk and nails-hands and feet) and newborns (umbilical cord blood, meconium, and urine samples) from February 2016 to October 2017.

RESULTS

overall 838 eligible pregnant women were approached. The participation rate was 206(25%) in our study and about 185(90%) of subjects were recruited in hospitals. Out of 206 participants in the first trimester, blood, urine, hand nail, and foot nail samples were collected from 206(100%),193(93%), 205(99%), and 205(99%), respectively. These values dropped to 65(54%), 83(69%), 84(70%), and 84(70%) for the remaining participants 120(58%) in the third trimester, respectively. Also, we gathered milk samples from 125(60%) of mothers at two to three months after delivery.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that hospitals were better places for recruitment of subjects in a birth cohort in Tehran. We further concluded that birth cohort study recruitment can be improved by choosing appropriate gestational ages. Obtaining the newborn's urine, meconium, and umbilical cord blood were challenging procedures and require good collaboration between hospital staff and researchers.

The concentration of BTEX compounds and health risk assessment in municipal solid waste facilities and urban areas

In this study, human exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEX), along with their respective risk assessment is studied in four major units (n = 14-point sources) of the largest municipal solid waste management facilities (MSWF) in Iran. The results were compared with four urban sites in Tehran, capital of Iran. Workers at the pre-processing unit are exposed to the highest total BTEX (151 μg m^-3). In specific, they were exposed to benzene concentrations of 11 μg m^-3. Moreover, the total BTEX (t-BTEX) concentrations measured over the conveyor belt was 198 μg m^-3 at most, followed by trommel (104), and active landfills (43). The mean concentration of ambient t-BTEX in Tehran is 100 μg m^-3. On average, xylenes and toluene have the highest concentrations in both on-site and urban environments, with mean values of 24 and 21, and 41 and 37 μg m^-3, respectively. Even though the non-carcinogenic risk of occupational exposure is negligible, BTEX is likely to increase the chance of carcinogenic risks (1.7E-05) for workers at the pre-processing unit. A definite carcinogenic risk of 1.3E-04, and non-carcinogenic effect, of HI = 1.6 were observed in one urban site. With the exception of the pre-processing unit, the citizens of Tehran had higher exposure to BTEX. Overall, BTEX concentrations in the largest MSWF of Iran remains an issue of public health concern.

Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution and mortality adjusting for road traffic noise: A Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between air pollution and mortality is well established, yet some uncertainties remain: there are few studies that account for road traffic noise exposure or that consider in detail the shape of the exposure-response function for cause-specific mortality outcomes, especially at low-levels of exposure.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter [(PM) with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM_2.5), <10 µm (PM₁₀)], and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total and cause-specific mortality, accounting for road traffic noise.

METHODS

We used data on 24,541 females (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, who were recruited in 1993 or 1999, and linked to the Danish Causes of Death Register for follow-up on date of death and its cause, until the end of 2013. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5, PM_10, and NO₂ at the participants' residences since 1990 were estimated using the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS dispersion model, and annual mean road traffic noise levels (L_den) were estimated using the Nord2000 model. We examined associations between the three-year running mean of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ with total and cause-specific mortality by using time-varying Cox Regression models, adjusting for individual characteristics and residential road traffic noise.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3,708 nurses died: 843 from cardiovascular disease (CVD), 310 from respiratory disease (RD), and 64 from diabetes. In the fully adjusted models, including road traffic noise, we detected associations of three-year running mean of PM_2.5 with total (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.01-1.11), CVD (1.14; 1.03-1.26), and diabetes mortality (1.41; 1.05-1.90), per interquartile range of 4.39 μg/m³. In a subset of the cohort exposed to PM_2.5 < 20 µg/m³, we found even stronger association with total (1.19; 1.11-1.27), CVD (1.27; 1.01-1.46), RD (1.27; 1.00-1.60), and diabetes mortality (1.44; 0.83-2.48). We found similar associations with PM₁₀ and none with NO₂. All associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise.

DISCUSSION

Long-term exposure to low-levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ is associated with total mortality, and mortality from CVD, RD, and diabetes. Associations were even stronger at the PM_2.5 levels below EU limit values and were independent of road traffic noise.

An Ensemble Learning Approach for Estimating High Spatiotemporal Resolution of Ground-Level Ozone in the Contiguous United States

In this paper, we integrated multiple types of predictor variables and three types of machine learners (neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting) into a geographically weighted ensemble model to estimate the daily maximum 8 h O₃ with high resolution over both space (at 1 km × 1 km grid cells covering the contiguous United States) and time (daily estimates between 2000 and 2016). We further quantify monthly model uncertainty for our 1 km × 1 km gridded domain. The results demonstrate high overall model performance with an average cross-validated R² (coefficient of determination) against observations of 0.90 and 0.86 for annual averages. Overall, the model performance of the three machine learning algorithms was quite similar. The overall model performance from the ensemble model outperformed those from any single algorithm. The East North Central region of the United States had the highest R², 0.93, and performance was weakest for the western mountainous regions (R² of 0.86) and New England (R² of 0.87). For the cross validation by season, our model had the best performance during summer with an R² of 0.88. This study can be useful for the environmental health community to more accurately estimate the health impacts of O₃ over space and time, especially in health studies at an intra-urban scale.

An Ensemble Learning Approach for Estimating High Spatiotemporal Resolution of Ground-Level Ozone in the Contiguous United States

In this paper, we integrated multiple types of predictor variables and three types of machine learners (neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting) into a geographically weighted ensemble model to estimate the daily maximum 8 h O₃ with high resolution over both space (at 1 km × 1 km grid cells covering the contiguous United States) and time (daily estimates between 2000 and 2016). We further quantify monthly model uncertainty for our 1 km × 1 km gridded domain. The results demonstrate high overall model performance with an average cross-validated R² (coefficient of determination) against observations of 0.90 and 0.86 for annual averages. Overall, the model performance of the three machine learning algorithms was quite similar. The overall model performance from the ensemble model outperformed those from any single algorithm. The East North Central region of the United States had the highest R², 0.93, and performance was weakest for the western mountainous regions (R² of 0.86) and New England (R² of 0.87). For the cross validation by season, our model had the best performance during summer with an R² of 0.88. This study can be useful for the environmental health community to more accurately estimate the health impacts of O₃ over space and time, especially in health studies at an intra-urban scale.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and stroke incidence: A Danish Nurse cohort study

Ambient air pollution has been linked to stroke, but few studies have examined in detail stroke subtypes and confounding by road traffic noise, which was recently associated with stroke. Here we examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of stroke (overall, ischemic, hemorrhagic), adjusting for road traffic noise. In a nationwide Danish Nurse Cohort consisting of 23,423 nurses, recruited in 1993 or 1999, we identified 1,078 incident cases of stroke (944 ischemic and 134 hemorrhagic) up to December 31, 2014, defined as first-ever hospital contact. The full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained for each participant and the annual means of air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx)) and road traffic noise were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the associations of one-, three, and 23-year running mean of air pollutants with stroke adjusting for potential confounders and noise. In fully adjusted models, the HRs (95% CI) per interquartile range increase in one-year running mean of PM_2.5 and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.12 (1.01-1.25), 1.13 (1.01-1.26), and 1.07 (0.80-1.44), respectively, and remained unchanged after adjustment for noise. Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was associated with the risk of stroke independent of road traffic noise.

Effects of vibration therapy and vitamin D supplement on eccentric exercise-induced delayed onset muscle soreness in female students

Delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) appears after unaccustomed exercise and peaks 24-48 h after exercise. Vitamin D micronutrient and vibration therapy may have an effect on DOMS. The present study investigated the effects of vitamin D micronutrient and vibration therapy on DOMS. Sixty female students were randomly assigned to one of the four groups (n=15 in each group): vitamin D, vibration therapy, vitamin D + vibration therapy, and control. The participants of vitamin D groups received vitamin D (3,800 IU, 1 session daily for 7 days), while the participants of the control groups received placebo. The participants of vibration therapy groups received vibration therapy (50 Hz; 3 sets of 1 min, 1 session daily for 7 days). One day later, the participants performed eccentric exercise (a quadriceps leg extension exercise). Immediately after this exercise protocol, the participants received vitamin D or vibration therapy on basis of their groups. Pain perception, creatine kinase (CK), interleukin (IL)-6, superoxide dismutase and malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration were measured at baseline (before 7 days of intervention), after 7 days of intervention (before eccentric exercise) and 24, 48 and 72 h after eccentric exercise. Statistical analysis was employed and P≤0.05 was considered as the significant level. CK and IL-6 concentrations, as well as pain perception, were significantly lower in the vibration therapy and vitamin D groups compared to the control group 24 to 48 h after eccentric exercise. MDA concentration was significantly lower in the vibration therapy and vitamin D groups compared to the control group 48 to 72 h after eccentric exercise. In conclusion, the present study suggests that vibration therapy and vitamin D supplement may have effects against eccentric exercise-induced delayed onset muscle soreness in female students.

The burden of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributed to ambient sulfur dioxide over 26 years

INTRODUCTION

Developing countries, particularly those with a rapid development, are experiencing increasing pollution by sulfur dioxide (SO₂). Despite the considerable SO₂ exposure effect on health, there is little evidence regarding this fact in Iran, as one of the largest oil and gas producing countries in the world. The present study, therefore, was designed to investigate the burden of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributed to the SO₂ exposure in Iran, over a 26-year period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All measured SO₂ levels were collected from 92 air quality monitoring stations (AQMSs) in 29 cities, during 1996-2013. Since the study years were from 1990 to 2015, and also due to missing data at existing stations, the spatiotemporal model was used to estimate the exposure to this gas during this period. To calculate the burden of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the population attributable fraction (PAF) value was calculated, and the SO₂-attributed mortality and years of life lost (YLL) were determined per province, and in the whole country.

RESULTS

The results of this study showed that the SO₂ concentration was increased from 22.00 ppb (7.69-67.28) in 1990 to 27.81 ppb (9.88-82.27), in 2015. The lowest annual value of 11.53 ppb (4.68-32.06) and the highest value of 45.11 ppb (16.58-1226) were estimated at 2004 and 1997, respectively. There was a sinusoidal trend in the gas concentration changes. The highest occurrence of SO₂-attributed deaths due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were 0.080 (0.024-0.168) and 0.076 (0.026-0.165), and the lowest levels were 0.017 (0.004-0.044) and 0.047 (0.017-0.124), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the results in our country, the SO₂ trend was sinusoidal during 26 years, with a recurrent rise occurring after each declining period. It is recommended to design the sustainable national method policies and programs with the continuous evaluation and modification for the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and further implementation in the use of clean energy.

Assessing NO2 Concentration and Model Uncertainty with High Spatiotemporal Resolution across the Contiguous United States Using Ensemble Model Averaging

NO₂ is a combustion byproduct that has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes. To assess NO₂ levels with high accuracy, we propose the use of an ensemble model to integrate multiple machine learning algorithms, including neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting, with a variety of predictor variables, including chemical transport models. This NO₂ model covers the entire contiguous U.S. with daily predictions on 1-km-level grid cells from 2000 to 2016. The ensemble produced a cross-validated R² of 0.788 overall, a spatial R² of 0.844, and a temporal R² of 0.729. The relationship between daily monitored and predicted NO₂ is almost linear. We also estimated the associated monthly uncertainty level for the predictions and address-specific NO₂ levels. This NO₂ estimation has a very high spatiotemporal resolution and allows the examination of the health effects of NO₂ in unmonitored areas. We found the highest NO₂ levels along highways and in cities. We also observed that nationwide NO₂ levels declined in early years and stagnated after 2007, in contrast to the trend at monitoring sites in urban areas, where the decline continued. Our research indicates that the integration of different predictor variables and fitting algorithms can achieve an improved air pollution modeling framework.

Assessing NO2 Concentration and Model Uncertainty with High Spatiotemporal Resolution across the Contiguous United States Using Ensemble Model Averaging

NO₂ is a combustion byproduct that has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes. To assess NO₂ levels with high accuracy, we propose the use of an ensemble model to integrate multiple machine learning algorithms, including neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting, with a variety of predictor variables, including chemical transport models. This NO₂ model covers the entire contiguous U.S. with daily predictions on 1-km-level grid cells from 2000 to 2016. The ensemble produced a cross-validated R² of 0.788 overall, a spatial R² of 0.844, and a temporal R² of 0.729. The relationship between daily monitored and predicted NO₂ is almost linear. We also estimated the associated monthly uncertainty level for the predictions and address-specific NO₂ levels. This NO₂ estimation has a very high spatiotemporal resolution and allows the examination of the health effects of NO₂ in unmonitored areas. We found the highest NO₂ levels along highways and in cities. We also observed that nationwide NO₂ levels declined in early years and stagnated after 2007, in contrast to the trend at monitoring sites in urban areas, where the decline continued. Our research indicates that the integration of different predictor variables and fitting algorithms can achieve an improved air pollution modeling framework.

National and sub-national estimation of benzene emission trend into atmosphere in Iran from 1990 to 2013

Introduction: Exposure to benzene has been associated with a range of acute and long-term adverse health effects. We aimed to estimate national and provincial level of benzene emissions from 1990 to 2013 in Iran. Materials and methods: Benzene emission was estimated through two main sources: unburned benzene content of fuel and evaporated benzene. Unburned benzene content of fuel estimated by gasoline consumption rate, kilometers traveled by non-diesel-based cars, and benzene emission factor. Evaporated benzene estimated by evaporated gasoline and volumetric percentile of benzene.               Results: The estimated provincial annual mean benzene estimation range was between 5.9 (ton) and 1590 (ton) from 1990 to 2013. Our results showed that maximum benzene emission over the past 24 years occurred in Tehran, (Mean± SD) (1147.2±308.5) (ton)), Isfahan (423.4±132) (ton)), Khorasan Razavi (410.4±122.2) (ton)) provinces, respectively. There was an upward trend in the benzene emission into atmosphere at national and subnational level from 1990 to 2007. Also a significant decrease trend is observed from 2008 to 2013. Conclusion: The findings of this study will provide an insight into the extent of emitted benzene in the atmosphere at different regions of Iran for policy makers and scientists and may be a groundwork for field studies on benzene concentration estimation.

National and sub-national exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its attributable burden of disease in Iran from 1990 to 2016

Ambient particulate matter is a public health concern. We aimed (1) to estimate national and provincial long-term exposure of Iranians to ambient particulate matter (PM) < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) from 1990 to 2016, and (2) to estimate the national and provincial burden of disease attributable to PM_2.5 in Iran. We used all available ground measurements of PM < 10 μm (PM₁₀) (used to estimate PM_2.5) from 91 monitoring stations. We estimated the annual mean exposure to PM_2.5 for all Iranian population from 1990 to 2016 through a multi-stage modeling process. By applying comparative risk assessment methodology and using life table for years of life lost (YLL), we estimated the mortality and YLL attributable to PM_2.5 for five outcomes. The predicted provincial annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations range was between 21.7 μg/m³ (UI: 19.03-24.9) and 35.4 μg/m³ (UI: 31.4-39.4) from 1990 to 2016. We estimated in 2016, about 41,000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35634, 47014) and about 3,000,000 YLL (95% UI: 2632101, 3389342) attributable to the long-term exposure to PM_2.5 in Iran. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of mortality by 31,363 deaths (95% UI: 27520, 35258), followed by stroke (7012 (5999, 8062) deaths), lower respiratory infection (1210 (912, 1519) deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1019 (715, 1328) deaths), and lung cancer (668 (489, 848) deaths). In 2016, about 43% of all PM_2.5 related mortality in Iran was, respectively, in the following provinces: Tehran (12.6%), Isfahan (9.3%), Khorasan Razavi (8.0%), Fars (6.5%), and Khozestan (6.4%). In summary, we found that the majority of Iranians were exposed to the levels of ambient particulate matter exceeding the WHO guidelines from 1990 to 2016. Further, we found that there was an increasing trend of total mortality attributed to PM_2.5 in Iran from 1990 to 2016 where the slope was higher in western provinces.

Maternal exposure to air pollutants and birth weight in Tehran, Iran

BACKGROUND

Air pollution can cause various health outcomes, especially in susceptible groups including pregnant women. Low birth weight (LBW) is among the adverse birth outcomes and is one of the main causes of infant mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the association between air pollutants and LBW in Tehran, Iran.

METHODS

In this case-control study, 2144 babies born in three hospitals of Tehran (Iran) during 2011 to 2012 whose mothers were the residents of this city in last 5 years were considered. Of these, 468 infants with birth weight < 2500 g and 1676 with birth weight ≥ 2500 g were regarded as case and control groups, respectively. Gestational age was also considered for definition of cases (small for gestational age (SGA)) and controls (appropriate for gestational age). Land use regression models were used to assess exposure to particulate matter ≤10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and volatile organic compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene, m-xylene, p-xylene (BTEX), and total BTEX) during pregnancy. Logistic regression model was applied to assess the association between air pollutants and LBW.

RESULTS

The concentrations of air pollutants were very high but similar in cases and controls. After adjustment for potential confounding variables, no statistically significant association was observed between air pollutants and LBW. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for PM₁₀, SO₂, and benzene were 0.999 (0.994-1.005), 0.998 (0.993-1.003), and 0.980 (0.901-1.067), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

No association was found between LBW and air pollutants. Further studies with more rigorous designs and access to more comprehensive information are suggested to assess the effect of other air pollutants, such as CO, O₃, PM_2.5, ultrafine particles, and oxidative potential of particles on birth outcomes.

Short-term associations between daily mortality and ambient particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and the air quality index in a Middle Eastern megacity

There is limited evidence for short-term association between mortality and ambient air pollution in the Middle East and no study has evaluated exposure windows of about a month prior to death. We investigated all-cause non-accidental daily mortality and its association with fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and the Air Quality Index (AQI) from March 2011 through March 2014 in the megacity of Tehran, Iran. Generalized additive quasi-Poisson models were used within a distributed lag linear modeling framework to estimate the cumulative effects of PM_2.5, NO₂, and the AQI up to a lag of 45 days. We further conducted multi-pollutant models and also stratified the analyses by sex, age group, and season. The relative risk (95% confidence interval (CI)) for all seasons, both sexes and all ages at lag 0 for PM_2.5, NO₂, and AQI were 1.004 (1.001, 1.007), 1.003 (0.999, 1.007), and 1.004 (1.001, 1.007), respectively, per inter-quartile range (IQR) increment (18.8 μg/m³ for PM_2.5, 12.6 ppb for NO₂, and 31.5 for AQI). In multi-pollutant models, the PM_2.5 associations were almost independent from NO₂. However, the RRs for NO₂ were slightly attenuated after adjustment for PM_2.5 but they were still largely independent from PM_2.5. The cumulative relative risks (95% CI) per IQR increment reached maximum during the cooler months, including: 1.13 (1.06, 1.20) for PM_2.5 at lag 0-31 (for females, all ages); 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) for NO₂ at lag 0-45 (for males, all ages); and 1.13 (1.07, 1.20) for the AQI at lag 0-30 (for females, all ages). Generally, the RRs were slightly larger for NO₂ than PM_2.5 and AQI. We found somewhat larger RRs in females, age group >65 years of age, and in cooler months. In summary, positive associations were found in most models. This is the first study to report short-term associations between all-cause non-accidental mortality and ambient PM_2.5 and NO₂ in Iran.

An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution

Various approaches have been proposed to model PM2.5 in the recent decade, with satellite-derived aerosol optical depth, land-use variables, chemical transport model predictions, and several meteorological variables as major predictor variables. Our study used an ensemble model that integrated multiple machine learning algorithms and predictor variables to estimate daily PM2.5 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km across the contiguous United States. We used a generalized additive model that accounted for geographic difference to combine PM2.5 estimates from neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting. The three machine learning algorithms were based on multiple predictor variables, including satellite data, meteorological variables, land-use variables, elevation, chemical transport model predictions, several reanalysis datasets, and others. The model training results from 2000 to 2015 indicated good model performance with a 10-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.86 for daily PM2.5 predictions. For annual PM2.5 estimates, the cross-validated R2 was 0.89. Our model demonstrated good performance up to 60 μg/m3. Using trained PM2.5 model and predictor variables, we predicted daily PM2.5 from 2000 to 2015 at every 1 km × 1 km grid cell in the contiguous United States. We also used localized land-use variables within 1 km × 1 km grids to downscale PM2.5 predictions to 100 m × 100 m grid cells. To characterize uncertainty, we used meteorological variables, land-use variables, and elevation to model the monthly standard deviation of the difference between daily monitored and predicted PM2.5 for every 1 km × 1 km grid cell. This PM2.5 prediction dataset, including the downscaled and uncertainty predictions, allows epidemiologists to accurately estimate the adverse health effect of PM2.5. Compared with model performance of individual base learners, an ensemble model would achieve a better overall estimation. It is worth exploring other ensemble model formats to synthesize estimations from different models or from different groups to improve overall performance.

Air pollution, environmental chemicals, and smoking may trigger vitamin D deficiency: Evidence and potential mechanisms

Beyond vitamin D (VD) effect on bone homeostasis, numerous physiological functions in human health have been described for this versatile prohormone. In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where annual mean ambient particulate matter (<2.5 μm) levels exceeded the World Health Organization guideline value (Shaddick et al., 2018). On the other hand, industries disperse thousands of chemicals continually into the environment. Further, considerable fraction of populations are exposed to tobacco smoke. All of these may disrupt biochemical pathways and cause detrimental consequences, such as VD deficiency (VDD). In spite of the remarkable number of studies conducted on the role of some of the above mentioned exposures on VDD, the literature suffers from two main shortcomings: (1) an overview of the impacts of environmental exposures on the levels of main VD metabolites, and (2) credible engaged mechanisms in VDD because of those exposures. To summarize explanations for these unclear topics, we conducted the present review, using relevant keywords in the PubMed database, to investigate the adverse effects of exposure to air pollution, some environmental chemicals, and smoking on the VD metabolism, and incorporate relevant potential pathways disrupting VD endocrine system (VDES) leading to VDD. Air pollution may lead to the reduction of VD cutaneous production either directly by blocking ultraviolet B photons or indirectly by decreasing outdoor activity. Heavy metals may reduce VD serum levels by increasing renal tubular dysfunction, as well as downregulating the transcription of cytochrome P450 mixed-function oxidases (CYPs). Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may inhibit the activity and expression of CYPs, and indirectly cause VDD through weight gain and dysregulation of thyroid hormone, parathyroid hormone, and calcium homeostasis. Smoking through several pathways decreases serum 25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D levels, VD intake from diet, and the cutaneous production of VD through skin aging. In summary, disturbance in the cutaneous production of cholecalciferol, decreased intestinal intake of VD, the modulation of genes involved in VD homeostasis, and decreased local production of calcitriol in target tissues are the most likely mechanisms that involve in decreasing the serum VD levels.

Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment

Air pollution is a leading global disease risk factor. Tracking progress (e.g., for Sustainable Development Goals) requires accurate, spatially resolved, routinely updated exposure estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate annual average fine particle (PM_2.5) concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution globally for 2010-2016. The model incorporated spatially varying relationships between 6003 ground measurements from 117 countries, satellite-based estimates, and other predictors. Model coefficients indicated larger contributions from satellite-based estimates in countries with low monitor density. Within and out-of-sample cross-validation indicated improved predictions of ground measurements compared to previous (Global Burden of Disease 2013) estimates (increased within-sample R² from 0.64 to 0.91, reduced out-of-sample, global population-weighted root mean squared error from 23 μg/m³ to 12 μg/m³). In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where ambient PM_2.5 levels exceeded the World Health Organization 10 μg/m³ (annual average) guideline; 58% resided in areas above the 35 μg/m³ Interim Target-1. Global population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations were 18% higher in 2016 (51.1 μg/m³) than in 2010 (43.2 μg/m³), reflecting in particular increases in populous South Asian countries and from Saharan dust transported to West Africa. Concentrations in China were high (2016 population-weighted mean: 56.4 μg/m³) but stable during this period.

Long-term trends and health impact of PM2.5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006-2015

The main objectives of this study were (1) investigation of the temporal variations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ground level ozone (O₃) concentrations in Tehran megacity, the capital and most populous city in Iran, over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, and (2) estimation of their long-term health effects including all-cause and cause-specific mortality. For the first goal, the data of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations, measured at 21 regulatory monitoring network stations in Tehran, were obtained and the temporal trends were investigated. The health impact assessment of PM_2.5 and O₃ was performed using the World Health Organization (WHO) AirQ+ software updated in 2016 by WHO European Centre for Environment and Health. Local baseline incidences in Tehran level were used to better reveal the health effects associated with PM_2.5 and O₃. Our study showed that over 2006-2015, annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ varied from 24.7 to 38.8 μg m^-3 and 35.4 to 76.0 μg m^-3, respectively, and were significantly declining in the recent 6 years (2010-2015) for PM_2.5 and 8 years (2008-2015) for O₃. However, Tehran citizens were exposed to concentrations of annual PM_2.5 exceeding the WHO air quality guideline (WHO AQG) (10 μg m^-3), U.S. EPA and Iranian standard levels (12 μg m^-3) during entire study period. We estimated that long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 contributed to between 24.5% and 36.2% of mortality from cerebrovascular disease (stroke), 19.8% and 24.1% from ischemic heart disease (IHD), 13.6% and 19.2% from lung cancer (LC), 10.7% and 15.3% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 15.0% and 25.2% from acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), and 7.6% and 11.3% from all-cause annual mortality in the time period. We further estimated that deaths from IHD accounted for most of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM_2.5. The years of life lost (YLL) attributable to PM_2.5 was estimated to vary from 67,970 to 106,706 during the study period. In addition, long-term exposure to O₃ was estimated to be responsible for 0.9% to 2.3% of mortality from respiratory diseases. Overall, long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ contributed substantially to mortality in Tehran megacity. Air pollution is a modifiable risk factor. Appropriate sustainable control policies are recommended to protect public health.

Short-term association between ambient air pollution and pneumonia in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis of time-series and case-crossover studies

Ambient air pollution has been associated with respiratory diseases in children. However, its effects on pediatric pneumonia have not been meta-analyzed. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the short-term association between ambient air pollution and hospitalization of children due to pneumonia. We searched the Web of Science and PubMed for indexed publications up to January 2017. Pollutant-specific excess risk percentage (ER%) and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using random effect models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter ≤ 10 (PM₁₀) and ≤2.5 μm (PM_2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO). Results were further stratified by subgroups (children under five, emergency visits versus hospital admissions, income level of study location, and exposure period). Seventeen studies were included in the meta-analysis. The ER% per 10 μg/m³ increase of pollutants was 1.5% (95% CI: 0.6%-2.4%) for PM₁₀ and 1.8% (95% CI: 0.5%-3.1%) for PM_2.5. The corresponding values per 10 ppb increment of gaseous pollutants were 2.9% (95% CI: 0.4%-5.3%) for SO₂, 1.7% (95% CI: 0.5%-2.8%) for O₃, and 1.4% (95% CI: 0.4%-2.4%) for NO₂. ER% per 1000 ppb increment of CO was 0.9% (95% CI: 0.0%-1.9%). Associations were not substantially different between subgroups. This meta-analysis shows a positive association between daily levels of ambient air pollution markers and hospitalization of children due to pneumonia. However, lack of studies from low-and middle-income countries limits the quantitative generalizability given that susceptibilities to the adverse effects of air pollution may be different in those populations. The meta-regression in our analysis further demonstrated a strong effect of country income level on heterogeneity.

Estimating national dioxins and furans emissions, major sources, intake doses, and temporal trends in Iran from 1990-2010

BACKGROUND

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are highly toxic persistent organic pollutants (POPs), which can cause various health outcomes, such as cancer. As a part of the National and Sub-national Burden of Disease Study (NASBOD), we aimed to estimate dioxins and furans national emissions, identify their main sources, estimate daily intake doses, and assess their trend from 1990-2010 in Iran.

METHODS

The Toolkit for Identification and Quantification of Releases of Dioxins, Furans and Other Unintentional POPs, which is developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP 2013), was used to estimate the emissions of PCDD/PCDFs from several sources into the air, water, land, residue, and other products. The daily intake doses were estimated using a linear regression of estimated emissions by UNEP Toolkit and average intake doses in other countries. Finally, the trend of PCDD/PCDFs emissions and daily intake doses were explored from 1990-2010.

RESULTS

The total emissions were estimated as 960 g Toxic Equivalents (g TEQ) for 1990 and 1957 g TEQ for 2010 (18.2 and 26.8 g TEQ per million capita, respectively). The estimations suggest that albeit contribution of open burning to PCDD/PCDFs emissions has been declining from 1990 to 2010, it remained the major source of emissions in Iran contributing to about 45.8% out of total emissions in 1990 to 35.7% in 2010. We further found that PCDD/PCDFs are mostly emitted into the ambient air, followed by residue, land, products, and water. The daily intake doses were estimated to be 3.1 and 5.4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day for 1990 and 2010, respectively. We estimated an increasing trend for PCDD/PCDFs emissions and intake doses in Iran from 1990-2010.

CONCLUSIONS

The high levels of emissions, intake doses, and their increasing trend in Iran may pose a substantial health risk to the Iranian population. Further studies with more rigorous methods are recommended but this should not circumvent taking appropriate policy actions against these pollutants. Currently, Iran has no standard for dioxins and furans. Adaptation of the World Health Organization recommended guidelines might be an appropriate starting point to control dioxins and furans emissions.

Land Use Regression Models for Alkylbenzenes in a Middle Eastern Megacity: Tehran Study of Exposure Prediction for Environmental Health Research (Tehran SEPEHR)

Land use regression (LUR) has not been applied thus far to ambient alkylbenzenes in highly polluted megacities. We advanced LUR models for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, p-xylene, m-xylene, o-xylene (BTEX), and total BTEX using measurement based estimates of annual means at 179 sites in Tehran megacity, Iran. Overall, 520 predictors were evaluated, such as The Weather Research and Forecasting Model meteorology predictions, emission inventory, and several new others. The final models with R² values ranging from 0.64 for p-xylene to 0.70 for benzene were mainly driven by traffic-related variables but the proximity to sewage treatment plants was present in all models indicating a major local source of alkylbenzenes not used in any previous study. We further found that large buffers are needed to explain annual mean concentrations of alkylbenzenes in complex situations of a megacity. About 83% of Tehran's surface had benzene concentrations above air quality standard of 5 μg/m³ set by European Union and Iranian Government. Toluene was the predominant alkylbenzene, and the most polluted area was the city center. Our analyses on differences between wealthier and poorer areas also showed somewhat higher concentrations for the latter. This is the largest LUR study to predict all BTEX species in a megacity.

Spatiotemporal description of BTEX volatile organic compounds in a Middle Eastern megacity: Tehran Study of Exposure Prediction for Environmental Health Research (Tehran SEPEHR)

The spatiotemporal variability of ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Tehran, Iran, is not well understood. Here we present the design, methods, and results of the Tehran Study of Exposure Prediction for Environmental Health Research (Tehran SEPEHR) on ambient concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, p-xylene, m-xylene, o-xylene (BTEX), and total BTEX. To date, this is the largest study of its kind in a low- and middle-income country and one of the largest globally. We measured BTEX concentrations at five reference sites and 174 distributed sites identified by a cluster analytic method. Samples were taken over 25 consecutive 2-weeks at five reference sites (to be used for temporal adjustments) and over three 2-week campaigns in summer, winter, and spring at 174 distributed sites. The annual median (25^th-75^th percentile) for benzene, the most carcinogenic of the BTEX species, was 7.8 (6.3-9.9) μg/m³, and was higher than the national and European Union air quality standard of 5 μg/m³ at approximately 90% of the measured sites. The estimated annual mean concentrations of BTEX were spatially highly correlated for all pollutants (Spearman rank coefficient 0.81-0.98). In general, concentrations and spatial variability were highest during the summer months, most likely due to fuel evaporation in hot weather. The annual median of benzene and total BTEX across the 35 sites in the Tehran regulatory monitoring network (7.7 and 56.8 μg/m³, respectively) did a reasonable job of approximating the additional 144 city-wide sites (7.9 and 58.7 μg/m³, respectively). The annual median concentrations of benzene and total BTEX within 300 m of gas stations were 9.1 and 67.3 μg/m³, respectively, and were higher than sites outside this buffer. We further found that airport did not affect annual BTEX concentrations of sites within 1 km. Overall, the observed ambient concentrations of toxic VOCs are a public health concern in Tehran.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sensor-less force-reflecting macro-micro telemanipulation systems by piezoelectric actuators

This paper establishes a novel control strategy for a nonlinear bilateral macro-micro teleoperation system with time delay. Besides position and velocity signals, force signals are additionally utilized in the control scheme. This modification significantly improves the poor transparency during contact with the environment. To eliminate external force measurement, a force estimation algorithm is proposed for the master and slave robots. The closed loop stability of the nonlinear micro-micro teleoperation system with the proposed control scheme is investigated employing the Lyapunov theory. Consequently, the experimental results verify the efficiency of the new control scheme in free motion and during collision between the slave robot and the environment of slave robot with environment, and the efficiency of the force estimation algorithm.

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background

The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.

Methods

GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically.

Findings

The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred.

Interpretation

Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National and sub-national drinking water fluoride concentrations and prevalence of fluorosis and of decayed, missed, and filled teeth in Iran from 1990 to 2015: a systematic review

Fluoride intake, fluorosis, and dental caries could affect quality of life and disease burden worldwide. As a part of the National and Sub-national Burden of Disease Study (NASBOD) in Iran, we conducted a systematic review to evaluate province-year-specific mean drinking water fluoride concentrations and prevalence of fluorosis and of decayed, missed, and filled teeth (DMFT) in Iran from 1990 to December 2015. We did electronic searches of all English and Persian publications on PubMed, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Iranian databases. Results revealed that the weighted mean drinking water fluoride concentration in Iran from 1990 to 2015 has been about 0.65 ± 0.38 mg/l. However, based on the WHO guideline value (1.50 mg/l) and the maximum permissible Iranian national fluoride standard (1.40 to 2.40 mg/l depending on the region's climate), there have been some regions in Iran with non-optimum fluoride concentrations in their drinking water (up to 7.0 mg/l). Overall, concentrations have been higher in southern parts of Iran and in some areas of Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi Province in the northwest and lower in the rest of the northwest and central parts of Iran. In addition, some hotspots have been found in Bushehr Province, southwest of Iran. The highest prevalence of dental flourosis has been reported in normal index while the lowest prevalence has been expressed in severe index. The lowest DMFT (about 0.1) was in Arsanjan City in Fars Province, and the highest (about 6.7) was for Najaf Abad City in Isfahan Province. Prevalence of fluorosis has been rather high in studied areas of Iran (e.g. 100 % in Maku City in Azarbaijan-e-Gharbi Province), and there was discrepancy for DMFT, but a lack of studies renders the results inconclusive. Further studies, health education and promotion plans, and evidence-based nutrition programs are recommended.

Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model simulations, and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990-2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, global population-weighted PM2.5 increased by 20.4% driven by trends in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. Decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased globally by 8.9% from 1990-2013 with increases in most countries-except for modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Isolation of free-living amoebae from sarein hot springs in ardebil province, iran

BACKGROUND

Free-living amoebae (FLA) are a group of ubiquitous protozoan, which are distributed in the natural and artificial environment sources. The main aim of the current study was to identify the presence of FLA in the recreational hot springs of Sarein in Ardebil Province of Iran.

METHODS

Seven recreational hot springs were selected in Sarein City and 28 water samples (four from each hot spring) were collected using 500 ml sterile plastic bottles during three month. Filtration of water samples was performed, and culture was done in non-nutrient agar medium enriched with Escherichia coli. Identification of the FLA was based on morphological criteria of cysts and trophozoites. Genotype identification of Acanthamoeba positive samples were also performed using sequencing based method.

RESULTS

Overall, 12 out of 28 (42.9%) samples were positive for FLA which Acanthamoeba and Vahlkampfiid amoebae were found in one (3.6%) and 11 (39.3%) samples, respectively. Sequence analysis of the single isolate of Acanthamoeba revealed potentially pathogenic T(4) genotype corresponding to A. castellanii.

CONCLUSION

Contamination of hot springs to FLA, such as Acanthamoeba T(4) genotype (A. castellanii) and Vahlkampfiid amoebae, could present a sanitary risk for high risk people, and health authorities must be aware of FLA presence.

Relationship between GDx VCC and Stratus OCT in juvenile glaucoma

PURPOSE

To compare the ability of scanning laser polarimetry (GDx VCC) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) to discriminate eyes with juvenile glaucoma from normal eyes and to assess the relationship between their parameters.

METHODS

A total of 24 glaucomatous eyes of 24 patients and 24 normal eyes were enrolled. The age range of the patient was 11-40 years with a mean age of 25.1+/-8.2 years. Control groups consisted 24 eyes of 24 individuals without glaucoma with a mean age of 33.2+/-8.2 years. All subjects underwent a full ophthalmic examination, automated perimetry, GDx VCC, and OCT. Correlation coefficients between the parameters of OCT and GDx VCC were calculated. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) for the main parameters of GDx VCC and OCT.

RESULTS

Statistically significant correlations were observed between GDx VCC and OCT parameters. Pearson coefficients ranged from 0.75 for inferior average to 0.86 for nerve fibre indicator (NFI)/average thickness OCT. The greatest AROC parameter in OCT (inferior average: 0.92) had a lower area than that in GDx VCC (NFI: 0.99). There was a significant statistical significance in all visual field, GDx VCC, and OCT variables between two groups (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Many GDx VCC parameters were significantly correlated with those of the OCT in patients with juvenile glaucoma. Inferior average and NFI had the greatest AROC parameter in OCT and GDx VCC, respectively. NFI had high sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of JOAG.

Hydrogen sulfide removal by Thiobacillus thioparus bacteria on seashell bed biofilters

The aim of this research is to achieve an efficient and cheap methods to remove H2S from the factories emissions. Four serial cylinders are designed, 40 cm in height and 15 cm in diameter each. They are filled with bivalve seashells with 63% porosity which contains Thiobacillus thioparus bacteria to the maximum height of 27.5 cm. By mixing phosphoric acid and sodium sulfide, H2S gas is released and its concentration is measured as mg m(-3) before injecting into the cylinders. A permanent measuring instrument is equipped to control the gas coming out of the cylinders. In order to prevent the outdoor environment from pollution, first the gas is sent through two activated carbon columns and then sent through a ferrous chloride scrubber. Finally it is burnt directly by flames. There were 550 sample readings in 15 weeks. The changes in the discharge of the air which carries the gas are considered between 1-12 L min(-1) and the concentration of the influent pollutant is considered between 1-140 mg m(-3). Also the humidity in the atmosphere is fixed between 77-93% and the optimum temperature required for growing of the microorganisms is retained between 20.5-30 degrees C. After feeding the system for three weeks the efficiency started to increase so that by the end of the final week of this research the efficiency reached to 90% with the discharge of 6 L min(-1) of the carrier gas. The results achieved from this research show that because of not using Filamentous bacteria, clogging did not occur in the biological system in biofilters. The amount of head loss in cylinder was only 2 mm water and during this research, head loss was the same due to unclogging of filter. On the other hand the traditional methods are expensive in terms of using chemicals, carbon recycling and using fuel and etc. Therefore researchers have started new studies in this field. The above mentioned method, according to high efficiency, inexpensiveness and easiness of control and maintenance is considered one of the best methods.

Pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety of Iminoral compared with Neoral in healthy volunteers and renal transplant recipients

This study sought to evaluate the bioequivalence of Iminoral (test) versus Neoral (reference) in healthy volunteers, as well as safety and efficacy of Iminoral treatment in renal transplant recipients following conversion from Neoral.

METHODS

After an overnight fast, 18 healthy volunteers received the assigned treatment (test or reference, 200 mg single dose) in a cross-over fashion with a washout period of 14 days. The blood samples were drawn at various times after drug administration. Cyclosporine blood concentration was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography using an ultraviolet detector. In the second phase of study, stable renal transplant patients who were on Neoral were enrolled in the study in an open-label manner. They were converted from Neoral to Iminoral based on a 1:1 dose equivalence. Cyclosporine trough levels and changes in serum creatinine, lipid profile, electrolytes, and uric acid were measured before and periodically after conversion for 6 months.

RESULTS

The 90% confidence interval of the test/reference ratio was within the acceptable limits of 0.8 to 1.25. Relative bioavailability of Iminoral in healthy subjects was 99.0%. There was no significant difference in cyclosporine concentrations and serum creatinines following conversion to Iminoral in renal transplant patients (n=41). There were no reports of major toxicity or of graft rejection and no need for dose adjustment related to Iminoral.

CONCLUSIONS

Single doses of Neoral and Iminoral are bioequivalent in healthy subjects. Renal transplant recipients maintained on Neoral can be safely and effectively converted to Iminoral on a 1:1 conversion ratio.

Non-affective Acute Remitting Psychosis: a preliminary report from Iran

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the concept of 'Non-affective Acute Remitting Psychosis' (NARP) in a group of patients with first episode psychosis in Iran.

METHOD

This is a 24-month follow-up study of 54 patients with first-episode psychosis admitted consecutively to a psychiatric hospital in Tehran, Iran. At the end of follow-up, consensus judgments were made on fulfillment of the NARP criteria as well as illness course and treatment. NARP was defined as a psychotic illness with acute onset (developed within 1 week), short duration (remission within 6 months), and the absence of prominent mood symptoms.

RESULTS

Of 49 patients who completed the follow-up, 15 (30.6%) had NARP, accounting for 60% of non-affective psychoses. Ten patients with NARP remained relapse free, four had a very short-lived relapse, and only one developed a chronic illness. Throughout the follow-up, patients with NARP received fewer months of treatment than did patients with other non-affective psychoses.

CONCLUSION

The high proportion of NARP among patients with first episode psychosis, and the favorable course is in keeping with previous studies in developing countries.

Ascorbate reduces morphine-induced extracellular DOPAC level in the nucleus accumbens: A microdialysis study in rats

Most drugs of abuse increase dopamine and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) release in the shell of the nucleus accumbens. The effects of ascorbate, which is known to modulate dopamine neurotransmission, on the extracellular level of DOPAC in the nucleus accumbens of naive rats and of rats treated acutely with morphine were studied by using in vivo microdialysis and high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ECD). Acute morphine (20 mg/kg ip) treatment increased the level of DOPAC in the nucleus accumbens to approximately 170% of basal level. Acute treatment with ascorbate (500 mg/kg ip) alone did not alter nucleus accumbens' DOPAC level, but pretreatment with ascorbate (500 mg/kg ip) 30 min before morphine administration attenuated the effects of acute morphine on the level of DOPAC. These results suggest that ascorbate modulates the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway.

Comparison of mirtazapine and fluoxetine in the treatment of major depressive disorder: a double-blind, randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Depression is an international public health problem. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy and tolerability of mirtazapine and fluoxetine treatment in a sample population consisting of Iranian patients suffering major depressive disorder.

METHODS

Thirty-six inpatients and outpatients with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV) and a score > or = 18 on the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D-17) were randomly assigned to 6 weeks of treatment with mirtazapine (30 mg/day) or fluoxetine (20 mg/day). Efficacy was assessed by HAM-D-17. Information about adverse events was obtained by questioning of participants and/or their examination. Assessments were performed at weeks 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

RESULTS

Sixteen of mirtazapine-treated patients and fifteen of fluoxetine-treated patients completed the 6-week study period. Both treatment groups were well matched at baseline with respect to demographic and disease characteristics. Both drugs showed a significant improvement over the 6 weeks of treatment (P < 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference between the mean +/- SEM HAM-D scores of two groups at weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and at the end point. There were no significant differences between two groups in terms of response to treatment (> or = 50% decrease from baseline in HAM-D-17 total score) and remission (HAM-D-17 score of < or = 7). None of the differences in reported adverse events was statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

In this study, mirtazapine and fluoxetine were equally effective and well tolerated after 6 weeks of treatment in patients with major depressive disorder.

Cyproheptadine in the treatment of autistic disorder: a double-blind placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Autism is a childhood-onset disorder of unknown, possibly of multiple aetiologies. The core symptoms of autism are abnormalities in social interaction, communication and behaviour. The involvement of neurotransmitters such as 5-HT has been suggested in neuropsychiatric disorders and particularly in autistic disorder. Increased platelet 5-HT levels were found in 40% of the autistic population, suggesting that hyperserotonaemia may be a pathologic factor in infantile autism. Therefore, it is of interest to assess the efficacy of cyproheptadine, a 5-HT2 antagonist in the treatment of autistic disorder. In this 8-week double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we assessed the effects of cyproheptadine plus haloperidol in the treatment of autistic disorder.

METHODS

Children between the ages 3 and 11 years (inclusive) with a DSM IV clinical diagnosis of autism and who were outpatients from a specialty clinic for children at Roozbeh Psychiatric Teaching Hospital were recruited. The children presented with a chief complaint of severely disruptive symptoms related to autistic disorder. Patients were randomly allocated to cyproheptadine + haloperidol (Group A) or haloperidol + placebo (Group B) for an 8-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. The dose of haloperidol and cyproheptadine was titrated up to 0.05 and 0.2 mg/kg/day respectively. Patients were assessed by a third-year resident of psychiatry at baseline and after 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks of starting medication. The primary measure of the outcome was the Aberrant Behaviour Checklist-Community (ABC-C) and the secondary measure of the outcome was the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (relating to people and verbal communication). Side effects and extrapyramidal symptoms were systematically recorded throughout the study and were assessed using a checklist and the Extrapyramidal Symptoms Rating Scale, administered by a resident of psychiatry during weeks 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8.

RESULTS

The ABC-C and the Childhood Autism Rating Scale scores improved with cyproheptadine. The behaviour of the two treatments was not homogeneous across time (groups-by-time interaction, Greenhouse-Geisser correction; F = 7.30, d.f. = 1.68, P = 0.002; F = 8.21, d.f. = 1.19, P = 0.004 respectively). The difference between the two treatments was significant as indicated by the effect of group, and the between-subjects factor (F = 4.17, d.f. = 1, P = 0.048; F = 4.29, d.f. = 1, P = 0.045 respectively). No significant difference was observed between the two groups in terms of extrapyramidal symptoms (P = 0.23). The difference between the two groups in the frequency of side effects was not significant.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the combination of cyproheptadine with a conventional antipsychotic may be superior to conventional antipsychotic alone for children with autistic disorder. However the results need confirmation by a larger randomized controlled trial.

Rapid determination of ranitidine in human plasma by high-performance liquid chromatography without solvent extraction

A simple high-performance liquid chromatographic procedure was developed for the determination of ranitidine in human plasma. The method entailed direct injection of the plasma samples after deproteination using perchloric acid. The chromatographic separation was accomplished with an isocratic elution using mobile phase consisting of 21 mM disodium hydrogen phosphate-triethylamine-acetonitrile (1000:60:150, v/v), pH 3.5. Analyses were run at a flow-rate of 1.3 ml/min using a microbondapak C18 column and ultraviolet detection at a wavelength of 320 nm. The method was specific and sensitive, with a quantification limit of approximately 20 ng/ml and a detection limit of 5 ng/ml at a signal-to-noise ratio of 3:1. The mean absolute recovery was about 96%, while the within- and between-day coefficient of variation and percent error values of the assay method were all less than 8%. The linearity was assessed in the range of 20-1000 ng/ml plasma, with a correlation coefficient of greater than 0.999. This method has been used to analyze several hundred human plasma samples for bioavailability studies.

Biosynthesis of the endogenous cyclic adenosine monophosphate (AMP) antagonist, prostaglandylinositol cyclic phosphate (cyclic PIP), from prostaglandin E and activated inositol polyphosphate in rat liver plasma membranes

The endogenous cyclic adenosine monophosphate (AMP) antagonist, cyclic PIP, has been identified as a prostaglandylinositol cyclic phosphate. It inhibits protein kinase A 100% and activates protein serine phosphatase about sevenfold. It is biosynthesized by an enzyme of the plasma membrane when the assay mixture contains adenosine triphosphate (ATP), Mg2+, prostaglandin E and a novel inositol polyphosphate, which cannot be substituted by commercially available inositol phosphates. This novel inositol polyphosphate is a very labile compound. On anion exchange chromatography it elutes in the range of ATP, which may indicate the presence of three phosphate groups. It adsorbs on charcoal, which suggests the presence of a hydrophobic component, possibly a guanosine. Pyrophosphates obtained from inositol 1,4- and inositol 2,4-bisphosphate are accepted by cyclic PIP synthetase for the synthesis of cyclic PIP. The biosynthesis is characterized by enzyme kinetic parameters like dependence on time, enzyme and substrate concentration. The pH optimum of the enzyme is in the range 7.5-8. The enzyme functions optimally with prostaglandin E and poorly with prostaglandin A as the substrate. The presence of fluoride in the assay causes a three- to fourfold increase in cyclic PIP synthesis, which may be correlated with activation via G proteins. These data support previous reports on the chemical structure and action of cyclic PIP. With respect to the possible isomers of cyclic PIP, these indicate that it is most likely the C4-hydroxyl group of the inositol which binds the C15-hydroxyl group of prostaglandin E. A model of hormone-stimulated synthesis of cyclic PIP is proposed: phospholipase A2 and phospholipase C, activated by G proteins upon alpha-adrenergic stimulation, liberate either unsaturated fatty acids or inositol phosphates, which are transformed to prostaglandins and to novel inositol polyphosphate with an energy-rich bond. The cyclic PIP synthetase combines these two substrates to cyclic PIP.

The effect of ibuprofen on the level of discomfort in patients undergoing orthodontic treatment

Studies have shown that patients undergoing orthodontic tooth movement can experience varying degrees of discomfort. The objective of this study was to determine whether nonsteroidal antiinflammatory agents, such as aspirin or ibuprofen, which inhibit prostaglandin synthesis through acetylation and inactivation of the enzyme cyclooxygenase, can suppress orthodontic discomfort by inhibiting the inflammatory response normally observed after orthodontic adjustments. A total of 77 patients were included in a double-blind, randomized, parallel, placebo-controlled, single-dose, analgesic efficacy evaluation of ibuprofen and aspirin. Patients were divided into three groups. Group A received one dose of the drug ibuprofen (400 mg), group B received aspirin (650 mg), and group C received a placebo (beta-lactose). The level of discomfort was assessed using a visual analogue scale at 2, 6, and 24 hours and 2, 3, and 7 days after the insertion of either orthodontic separators or an initial arch wire. A repeated measures analysis of variance and post hoc studentized range statistics showed that the placebo group had significantly more discomfort than either the ibuprofen or the aspirin group at all the time intervals tested. In addition, ibuprofen produced significantly less discomfort than aspirin at the 6 and 24-hour and 2-day time phase after separator placement; and 2 and 6 hours and 2, 3, and 7 days after arch wire placement. These results support a recommendation for ibuprofen as a preferred analgesic in the treatment of discomfort because of postorthodontic adjustments.